Week 4 Sit/Start + Mailbag

Matthew Berry was encouraged by how much Kyler Murray used Aaron Jones in the passing game in Week 3, suggesting the Vikings are incorporating the running back into their pass-game scheme.

Matthew Berry ranks Braylon Allen at running back 23 this week and projects him as a top 20-ish running back as long as Breece Hall is out; Berry notes Allen will get 8-10 touches per game even when Hall returns and is favored at the goal line, making him a better option than Marshawn Lloyd long-term despite committee status.

Matthew Berry discusses Breece Hall's expected return in a few weeks and notes that even when Hall returns, Braylon Allen will maintain 8-10 touches per game and goal-line work, suggesting Allen remains a viable fantasy option despite Hall's presence.

Matthew Berry selects Brock Purdy as his MVP pick at +425 odds, citing his 3-0 record, league-leading 133 passer rating, and EPA per play rate more than twice Josh Allen's; Berry argues Purdy has better value than Josh Allen because MVP is a perception game and Purdy is overcoming significant injuries to San Francisco's roster.

Matthew Berry ranks Irving at RB14 and keeps him open despite Baker Mayfield's injury. Berry expects Tampa Bay to run fairly heavy with Irving, making him productive even with Jalen Daniels taking over at QB.

Matthew Berry notes that when Caleb Williams returns to the Bears, A.J. Odunze could see a significant boost in fantasy production; Berry references Williams' tendency to stretch the field vertically and Ben Johnson's play-calling as reasons for Odunze's long-term upside.

Despite being the best WR on the Titans, Tate faces concerns from Cam Ward's poor play and the emergence of Rondale Robinson, who has seen increased target share in weeks 1-3. Tate has struggled with drops and Ward has missed him in the end zone, overshooting him on plays where he wins one-on-one coverage.

Matthew Berry ranks Tate at WR36 and reluctantly keeps him open for start/sit purposes in 12-team leagues with three WR starters. He cites 25% target share, Tate's underlying talent, and a favorable matchup: Ravens allow 7th-most fantasy points to WRs and 9th-most yards; Titans are 12-point underdogs and will need to throw. Berry expects Cam Ward to improve after showing better play in the second half of the Giants game.

Matthew Berry has Godwin outside his top 60 and is benching all Buccaneers pass catchers until seeing what Jalen Daniels looks like as the new starter. He wants to evaluate the passing attack before investing in Tampa Bay receivers.

With Jaden Reed out, Watson commands 26% target share in Green Bay's passing attack. Matthew Berry notes the Packers will be pass-heavy due to poor run game and weak defense, making Watson a beneficiary of increased volume.

Matthew Berry references Devon Achan as a cautionary example of early-season volatility in dynasty leagues, noting Achan was running back 21 through two weeks before suffering a season-ending injury; Berry uses Achan's situation to illustrate why trading young assets early in the season is risky.

Matthew Berry notes Derrick Henry is in the Ravens backfield alongside Lamar Jackson, providing supporting cast strength for Jackson's MVP candidacy; Henry's presence is cited as part of the Ravens' overall offensive firepower.

Emmanuel Wilson has emerged as a red zone threat for the Seahawks, recording 9 red zone touches through three games—significantly more than Jadarian Price's 3. This suggests Wilson has earned more trust and opportunity in Seattle's backfield.

George Helani has accumulated 7 red zone touches for the Seahawks through three games, outpacing Jadarian Price's 3 and establishing himself as a secondary option in Seattle's backfield.

Matthew Berry ranks Everett at tight end 22 this week, placing him outside the elite tier; Berry groups him with other Chargers players he's comfortable cutting due to the team's offensive dysfunction.

Matthew Berry ranks Likely at TE7 this week and keeps him open. Likely has maintained at least 23% target share in all three games and ranks TE5 in utilization score. Berry notes Harbaugh brought him from Baltimore to feature him and Ricard to set culture; Likely gets tons of targets in open field and red zone, with Jackson Dart utilizing him on corner routes, zone reads, and play-action meshes.

Cardinals allow 17.6 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (6th most in NFL) and have allowed two touchdowns to tight ends in past three games. Berry expects Giants to throw frequently as underdogs, creating a favorable environment for Likely.

Matthew Berry is closing out Jadarian Price, ranking him RB30. Despite first-round draft capital, Price's snap rate and percentage of team rush attempts have declined every week. He's lost a fumble in each of the last two weeks, averaging 10 touches per game and playing less than 40% of snaps. Most damaging: he's played only 21% of Seattle's red zone snaps with just 3 red zone touches through three games, while Emmanuel Wilson has 9 and George Helani has 7.

Matthew Berry is bullish on Jalen Daniels as the new Buccaneers starter, projecting he will perform better than Baker Mayfield despite the team total being tied to the third-lowest on the week four slate. Berry notes Daniels' ability to use his legs to extend plays when the offensive line struggles, and his tendency to push the ball downfield from his Kansas tape.

Matthew Berry notes Daniels went for significant money in dynasty waivers and was a popular pickup in two-QB leagues, suggesting fantasy community sees potential. Berry compares him favorably to Tyler Huntley, noting he runs better than Huntley and can generate fantasy points with his legs in his first NFL start.

Placed on IR; will miss at least four weeks. His absence narrows Green Bay's already narrow passing attack, concentrating targets among Christian Watson (26% target share), Matthew Golden (23%), and Tucker Craft (14%).

Matthew Berry ranks Waddle at WR29 despite slow, inconsistent start; cites 28% target share over past two weeks, 34% of routes targeted, 40% of Broncos air yards, and positive game environment (48 over-under) suggesting Denver will need to throw to keep pace with San Francisco. Berry believes in the talent and system, noting they're still finding their way offensively but will feature Waddle.

Waddle is described as 'a little bit banged up' with unknown health status, adding to concerns about his inconsistency alongside the entire Denver offense's unpredictability.

Matthew Berry notes Jalen Wright will see some carries in the Dolphins backfield alongside Ollie Gordon, indicating a committee approach that limits Gordon's workload compared to what Devon Achan received.

Matthew Berry is very bullish on Jordan Addison, calling him one of the best route runners in the league and expressing excitement about his development as a potential number-one option for the Vikings if Justin Jefferson doesn't play.

Despite a poor Week 3 performance against Atlanta from an NFL standpoint, Matthew Berry was happy with Love's fantasy output. With Jaden Reed now out and the Packers forced to be pass-heavy due to run-game and defensive limitations, Love benefits from increased volume and opportunity.

Matthew Berry selects Josh Allen as his MVP pick, noting Allen is the odds-on favorite and can do no wrong; Beetle emphasizes Allen's consistent production despite having a celebrity wife and movie star status, suggesting he's the safest MVP bet.

Matthew Berry ranks Downs as a better short-term play than A.J. Odunze, citing much better floor and fantasy production outlook; Berry emphasizes Downs' target share, separation ability, and role as the primary weapon in the Colts offense, noting he's one of the most rising stars in the slot with high win percentage on routes.

Matthew Berry ranks Justin Herbert QB21 for the week and strongly recommends closing him out. Despite going QB7-QB8 in drafts, Herbert has underperformed; Berry notes that if you're 2-1 or 3-0 in your league, you've done it despite Herbert, not because of him. The matchup at Seattle is unfavorable: Seahawks are fourth in pressure rate, allow league-low 5 yards per pass attempt, and McDonald's defense is elite. Herbert's rushing volume has dried up (17 yards last week), and the Chargers' interior offensive line is struggling.

Matthew Berry ranks Herbert outside his top 20 at quarterback this week and is comfortable cutting him, citing turnovers and inefficiency concerns; Berry notes Herbert is not running the ball, making him a low-upside option in a difficult Chargers offense with a brutal schedule (at Seattle, home to Denver, at Kansas City, bye, Rams).

Matthew Berry expresses optimism about Justin Jefferson's potential return for the Vikings. Whether Jefferson plays or not, Berry is very bullish on Jordan Addison as one of the best route runners in the league and excited to see him develop as a number-one option if needed.

Katron Allen is part of the Commanders' running back committee alongside Ja'Cory Krosky-Meritt and Rashad White. The team's decision to sign Austin Eckler suggests they lack confidence in the entire backfield group.

Matthew Berry notes Keaton Mitchell's usage is increasing in the Chargers backfield while Omarion Hampton's is declining, signaling a shift in the running back rotation that concerns Berry about Hampton's role but suggests Mitchell is gaining opportunity.

Matthew Berry preaches patience with Kyler Murray despite a Week 3 performance that set the worst single-game passing success rate under KOC in 73 games as Vikings head coach. Berry remains optimistic due to Murray's elite talent and the opportunities KOC's system creates, especially using his legs. He's ranked QB11 for the week against Miami's weak secondary.

Matthew Berry selects Lamar Jackson as his MVP pick at +600 odds, citing his chip-on-shoulder motivation after being ranked 69th in the NFL Top 100 (he was ranked 72nd in 2023 and won MVP the next year); Berry notes Jackson has Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers around him and is playing the best football of his life.

Matthew Berry keeps Nabers and advises staying the course rather than selling at his lowest point. Nabers has 29% target share in two of three games and is described as a superstar. Berry notes Stefania Bell warned of a slow start due to recovery from two serious injuries, but expects improvement as the offense adjusts and potentially gets J.J. McCarthy.

Matthew Berry projects Nabers will improve as Jameis Winston gets better or the Giants acquire J.J. McCarthy. He expects Isaiah Likely to be productive in the offense, suggesting the passing game will move the ball and Nabers' massive target share will translate to fantasy production.

Marcus Mariota threw all over the Seahawks secondary in a recent game, with the Commanders scoring 33 points and generating short fields. Matthew Berry uses this as context for why Justin Herbert's matchup at Seattle is unfavorable, though he notes the Commanders had defensive help and short fields that Herbert's Chargers may not replicate.

Matthew Berry ranks Lloyd at running back 44 this week and would not pick him up as a free agent, characterizing him as part of a three-headed committee on a team that can't run the ball; Berry prefers Chris Brooks in that role and notes the Packers' poor offensive line makes Lloyd a pass-script dependent back with limited upside.

With Jaden Reed sidelined, Golden sees 23% target share in Green Bay's narrow passing attack. The Packers' inability to run the ball and poor defense will force them to be pass-heavy, benefiting Golden's volume.

Matthew Berry has Evans outside his top 60 and is benching all Buccaneers pass catchers until seeing what Jalen Daniels looks like as the new starter. He wants to evaluate the passing attack before investing in Tampa Bay receivers.

Matthew Berry ranks Ollie Gordon at running back 33 this week and notes he has a better shot at a touchdown than Marshawn Lloyd; Berry cautions that Gordon won't get the workload Devon Achan had and will see competition from Jalen Wright, but views him as a better short-term option than Lloyd.

Matthew Berry ranks Hampton as running back 24 this week but notes he's touchdown-dependent and the situation is deteriorating; Berry observes Keaton Mitchell's usage is increasing while Hampton's is declining, making Hampton a risky hold despite his talent, though Berry would still pick him up off waivers due to potential role upside.

Matthew Berry ranks Johnston at wide receiver 62 this week, placing him well outside fantasy relevance; Berry suggests cutting him is acceptable given the Chargers' offensive struggles and Johnston's limited role in the passing game.

Matthew Berry has Saquon Barkley ranked RB16, lower than usual, but is keeping him open due to elite talent despite disappointing early-season performance. Barkley is averaging over 5 yards per carry and seeing 80% of the Eagles' goal-line rushes, suggesting mean reversion is likely. Against the Rams, the Eagles' offensive line is healthy. Berry notes the Eagles are 2-1 and playing a losing Rams team at home, making this a favorable spot.

Craft holds 14% target share in Green Bay's passing attack with Jaden Reed out. Matthew Berry notes Craft had a tough game against Atlanta but is working his way into the offense; he's one of three primary targets for Jordan Love.

Matthew Berry ranks Kraft at TE12 and keeps him open, expecting him to 'get off the schneid' this week. Over past two games, Kraft has 77% route participation and continues to get healthier. With Jaden Reed out, the target tree in Green Bay narrows further, increasing Kraft's opportunity.

Buccaneers are bottom-12 in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and have allowed two touchdowns to tight ends in past three games, creating a favorable matchup for Kraft.

Matthew Berry closes on Kraft due to concerns about Green Bay's poor pass protection and LeFleur's potential response to use max pass protection looks, keeping Kraft in for blocking rather than releasing him into routes. This schematic approach could lower his route participation and overall utilization.

Zach Charbonnet is expected to return to the Seahawks backfield, which will further limit Jadarian Price's opportunities. Matthew Berry notes Charbonnet is a veteran who can take care of the football and is great between the tackles, making him a threat to Price's playing time.

Matthew Berry notes Zay Flowers is playing the best football of his life alongside Lamar Jackson in the Ravens offense; Berry also mentions Flowers has been banged up, which is a health concern for the Ravens' MVP case.