2026 WR Preview with Matt Harmon
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
54 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 1, 2026
Published
Tue, September 1, 2026
17
Player insights
15
Players mentioned
Topics
DeVonta SmithSkyler BellAdonai MitchellBrian Thomas Jr.Colston LovelandD.J. MooreDrake LondonJalen CokerJosh DownsJustin JeffersonLuther BurdenMarvin Harrison Jr.Parker WashingtonRashee Rice
Player analysis
Player insights
Adonai Mitchell
PositiveSleeper83:41
Harmon highlights Adonai Mitchell as an interesting late-round target, noting positive reports from Jets camp and the potential for success with competent quarterback play from Geno Smith.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
NegativeProjection73:30
Harmon views Brian Thomas Jr. as being in the same tier as Parker Washington but notes that the Jaguars' offense will likely feature a heavy rotation of receivers and multiple tight end sets, limiting the potential for a true WR1 eruption. Harmon ranks him at WR32, slightly higher than consensus.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveValue26:26
Matthew Berry is very high on Loveland, frequently drafting him in the third or fourth round. Harmon also views him as an excellent player, and Berry notes that he often ends up stacking Loveland with Rome Odunze in drafts.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
NegativeBust85:52
Harmon has soured on DJ Moore, noting that his reception perception data suggests he was misused in Chicago and is not a fit for the current Buffalo offense. He expects the Buffalo passing game to be concentrated elsewhere.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveProjection18:49
Matthew Berry and Matt Harmon both view Smith as a breakout candidate with top-five upside now that A.J. Brown is gone. Harmon notes Smith has been ready to be a WR1 for years, citing his 83rd percentile success rate against press coverage and his ability to win at all three levels. Smith averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game over the last two seasons when seeing at least seven targets, and he is the only receiver to average at least 8.5 yards per target in each of the last five seasons.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout29:51
Matthew Berry and Matt Harmon are both high on Devontae Smith, with both ranking him as the WR10/WR11 and 24th overall. Berry highlights Smith's potential for a massive target share increase in the absence of A.J. Brown and notes that injuries to other depth chart options like Makai Lemon further solidify his outlook.
Insight pageDrake London
NegativeRole23:30
Harmon is concerned about Drake London's usage in the new Kevin Stefanski offense, which may shift him to a static X-receiver role compared to the motion-heavy usage that previously made him more quarterback-proof. Harmon prefers Nico Collins, George Pickens, and Chris Olave in similar draft ranges, though he acknowledges London's high target share potential.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveSleeper30:32
Matt Harmon identifies Jalen Coker as one of his favorite receivers in the league. Coker's ability to play the X-receiver position allows McMillan to move into the slot. Harmon suggests that Coker's production could be closer to McMillan's than current ADP reflects, making him a strong late-round target.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveSleeper80:12
Harmon is a long-time fan of Josh Downs, comparing his archetype to Tyler Lockett. Despite the Keenan Allen signing and Alec Pierce's presence, Harmon likes him as a late-round target who can win downfield and play in two-receiver sets.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeProjection12:06
Harmon ranks Justin Jefferson 13th overall, expressing concern that Kyler Murray's playstyle does not align with Jefferson's strength in running intermediate, in-breaking routes. While acknowledging Jefferson is an elite talent (98th percentile success rate vs. press), Harmon notes that last year proved even top-tier receivers are not entirely quarterback-proof.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveProjection35:12
Matthew Berry prefers Burden over Odunze, ranking him 22nd overall. Berry cites Burden's explosive production, noting he was top-five in both yards per target and yards per route run among receivers with at least 50 targets. Harmon acknowledges that if Caleb Williams struggles with downfield accuracy, Burden is the safer, more insulated bet for consistent production.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveValue63:59
Despite being objectively disappointing relative to high dynasty expectations, Harmon argues Harrison is a technically refined route runner with 80th percentile success against man coverage. Harmon is wiping the slate clean for 2026 and likes him at his ADP (WR32, 75 overall), noting the Cardinals offense should be better than the market expects.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue73:02
Harmon ranks Parker Washington as the top receiver in Jacksonville, citing his strong connection with Trevor Lawrence and a 22% target share in games where he played alongside other key targets. Harmon compares him to a 'full ABV Golden Tate' and ranks him at WR30, higher than consensus.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeBust22:46
Matt Harmon is fading Rice in the fourth round due to off-field concerns, injury history, and a limited profile. While Rice is an excellent zone-beater (83rd percentile), he struggles significantly against man coverage (9th percentile). Harmon notes that the Chiefs' addition of Kenneth Walker may reduce the quick, screen-based touches that previously bolstered Rice's fantasy floor.
Insight pageRome Odunze
PositiveValue33:38
Matt Harmon views Odunze as the most undervalued Bears receiver at his current ADP. Before a foot fracture last year, Odunze was a top-20 receiver in yards per route run and served as the focal point of the passing game. Harmon highlights his 85th percentile success rate against man coverage and 93rd percentile against press as reasons to bet on a full-season breakout.
Insight pageSkyler Bell
PositiveBreakout0:14
Skylar Bell is a target of interest following a strong preseason performance (7 catches for 49 yards and a 28-yard rushing touchdown); he has potential for opportunity in the Buffalo Bills offense behind DJ Moore and Khalil Shakur.
Insight pageNegativeRole85:32
Harmon profiles Skylar Bell as a complimentary speed Z receiver for Buffalo. While he sees a path for Bell to emerge in a wide-open WR room, he is uncertain about the overall fantasy upside.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00It's noon on YouTube, but of course, you know it's 5 o'clock somewhere.
0:04It is 5 o'clock somewhere, and it's a wide receiver preview show today as well.
0:08You know what? And I'm going to say, just to think, who, like, I would love, you know who drinks free today?
0:14I'm going to tell you who drinks free today at the bar, and it's Skylar Bell.
0:19Skylar Bell, 7 for 49, a 28-yard rushing touchdown for the Buffalo Bills in the preseason.
0:23Maybe we'll have time to talk about Skylar Bell, but Skylar Bell drinks free, and I'll tell you why, and for one
0:30reason only, he's on my Dynasty team. I was very, very excited to see Skylar Bell crush in his last preseason game
0:36for the Buffalo Bills considering, you know, it's DJ Moore and then, you know, Khalil Shakur a little bit, but there's some opportunity there as well.
0:43And who better to talk to me about Skylar Bell and all the big-name wide receivers than Mr.
0:48Reception Perception himself, Matt Haley. Matt Harmon from Yahoo Sports joining the Happy Hour Bar.
0:53The bar is open. I'm your friendly bartender, Matthew Berry.
0:56Thank you, brother. Matt, the first time I met you was, and so I don't think people know what BYB means, but I do.
1:02It is Backyard Banter. It starts for Backyard Banter because Matt, a million years ago, started a podcast called Backyard Banter where
1:09it was just a little bit of, I guess, bantering in the backyard with other fantasy analysts, and I did that show.
1:15Very gracious of me, if I'm being honest. I don't know how you got a big-name star like myself to Backyard Banter,
1:21but somehow you did, and we became friends, and it's just, you've been crushing ever, ever since.
1:26So congratulations on all the success, my friend. Well, thank you, Matthew.
1:30I really appreciate that. And yeah, I think the reason that I was able to get a big name such as yourself
1:36and many big-name people back then is the whole premise of the show was, you know, come on and tell us about
1:42your journey and how you became a big-name analyst.
1:45Again, you, many other folks, like how you made it in this space.
1:48And if there's one thing people love to talk about, it is themselves.
1:52That's a good point. When I'm like, hey, come on here, you know, get in here and talk about yourself, people are usually up for it.
1:59You know, that's a good point, especially me. That is my Achilles heel.
2:03Hey, Matthew, would you like to talk about yourself?
2:06The answer is always yes. The answer is always yes.
2:09And I think what's particularly interesting about your career is that you have carved out a very important niche for yourself.
2:15I call it a niche, although it's, you know, it's such a massive part of fantasy football.
2:19But all the work that you do with Reception Perception, receptionperception.com, it is two mats, one pod as Zen Berkshires.
2:25Oh, Zen Berzerkers, Berzerkers? Zen Berzerkers. Sorry. The pinot's flowing early today.
2:29But anyway, just, you know, talk to me briefly here as everyone's excited about the fact that you're, you know, a young guy.
2:35You got a good head of hair and a mustache.
2:38He's absolutely, you know, I'm very follically challenged, as you know.
2:41And so the regulars are all very interested in what's the hair situation of any of the guests that I bring on here.
2:48So no hair issues whatsoever. But talk to me a little bit about the idea behind Reception Perception.
2:53Yeah, well, no comment on what hair issues I may or may not have going on.
2:57You know, that is as long as it looks good on the front, that's all that matters here.
3:03When it basically you never leave this box. That's the point here.
3:06So Reception Perception was the idea I came up with to how to isolate and evaluate wide receiver plays, play outside of surrounding variables.
3:13When I first got started in the business, and I mean, really, even before doing this professionally back in like 2013, 2014,
3:19where I originally started the website Backyard Banter before the podcast, even when we got the great Matthew Barry on the show.
3:25And ultimately, the whole deal behind it was to me.
3:28We all know this. I mean, you know this.
3:31All of your smart viewers and listeners know this.
3:33Wide receiver play and production is so dependent on outside variables in order to get it right.
3:38You know, you got to have a good quarterback.
3:41You got to be deployed in the right role.
3:43And that's something that even more and more I focused on is just how different each wide receiver archetype is and how
3:50that can really contribute to not just putting together a good room like for an NFL real life team, but also from
3:56a fantasy standpoint, like how guys score their points.
3:58That's changed over the course of the last 10 plus years that I've been doing this.
4:03So the goal of reception perception is to isolate the players away from the surrounding variables to kind of try to just
4:09show like how good is this wide receiver? How does he win?
4:13What role does he best fit in? How can that complement other players on the roster?
4:17And ultimately, you know, from a fantasy standpoint, what people love to use it for is how can we find out who's good before they're good?
4:25You know, right. How can you in 2014 say, you know, Alan Robinson really is running these routes at a high level,
4:31separating it all three levels as an X receiver.
4:33You know, how can we predict the breakout before it happens?
4:37And of course, I mentioned that because it was one of the first big hits of the series way back in the day.
4:43So yeah, ultimately, again, the goal is from my charting standpoint, I go in eight games.
4:48I chart every single route that they run, how often they line up at each positional spot, what type of routes they're
4:54running, how successful they are against man zone press coverage.
4:57Really anything you want to know about a wide receiver reception perception is going to show you that because I've gone in
5:03and charted the film for the last 12 years now here, essentially.
5:07Yeah, you put in the work. Yeah, you put in the work.
5:10And so Brian Hickman, 3612 wants to know, what's the perception of receptions this season for Casey Concepcion?
5:15Yeah, that's fast. I'm not going to say that three times fast, but I did get through it once.
5:21Are you high? Like, we're going to get into a bunch of big names here, but just because it brings it up.
5:27And he is somebody that I like a lot as a wide receiver this year.
5:31You know, I grew up in College Station. I watch a lot of Texas A&M football.
5:36I'm a Casey Concepcion fan. I'm curious. And I think it's a good scheme fit for him with Munkin.
5:41Where are you on on Casey? Yeah, we are reading off the same sheet of music on this one.
5:46I'm a huge Casey Concepcion fan. He was my wide receiver, too, in this draft class.
5:51Frankly, if he didn't have just a couple of lapses at the catch point in terms of how he attacks the football,
5:57he wins like high degree of difficulty catches. I've charred him as a really good contested catch receiver.
6:02He can win above the rim, but he had a couple of misses here and there where he would clap at the football.
6:09You know, timing and technique can be a little tightened up.
6:12If those details weren't in there, I would have had him as my wide receiver one in this draft class because he
6:18was easily by far the best separator in the class.
6:2192nd percentile success rate versus man among the historic prospect data that I've collected since the 2016 NFL draft class.
6:27It really is just a complete skill set for him.
6:30And it's a great point about the scheme fit, too, because I think he can be used like Zay Flowers, but I
6:36also think like his max upside is beyond a Zay Flowers type because he's bigger, breaks more tackles in the open field.
6:42We got to acknowledge the quarterback question for sure from a fantasy standpoint, but just as a player, I am super, super high on Casey Concepcion.
6:50Yeah, I have a decent amount of him this year.
6:53I wish I had more, but I to your point about the quarterback position, I think that's the one.
6:58If there is a player that will be somewhat quarterback proof, it will be him just because I think Munkin will manufacture touches.
7:05He saw in the first preseason game. They're just they're going to try to find different ways just to get the ball
7:11in his hands that ways that even Watson can't screw up.
7:14But, you know, you mentioned, you know, talking about reception perception, Matt, you talk so much about how quarterback play comes into it.
7:21And that's where I want to start here, because there's no question about the talent of Justin Jefferson.
7:26No one's questioning that. You probably don't need to even chart him anymore.
7:29But can Justin Jefferson return to being an elite fantasy option with Kyler Murray under center?
7:34So I've heard two both sides of this argument like, hey, J.J.
7:37McCarthy was brutal. But like Jefferson's put up points with Nick Mullins, with Carson Wentz, with Josh Dobbs.
7:43Like he's mostly quarterback proof. Kyler is going to be an upgrade for him over, you know, obviously what he had last year.
7:49And then I've heard other people say like, well, it's not like Kyler made Marvin Harrison a superstar, you know.
7:55And like, you know, it's been a while since we've seen a superstar wide receiver have a big season with Kyler Murray.
8:01I mean, Michael Wilson's breakout happened with Jacoby Brissette last year.
8:04So where are you on J.J. this year, Matt?
8:07Yeah. I mean, I still like to chart a player like Justin Jefferson.
8:10One for my own, you know, enjoyment. It's nice to watch the good players every now and again.
8:16And really, sometimes you go back and find like I did with Justin Jefferson's profile that I just put up on the site last week.
8:23I mean, that was not just one of his best seasons.
8:26It's like one of the best seasons I've ever charted from a reception perception standpoint last year, which just makes it all
8:32the more painful what he produced from a fantasy football standpoint, from a real life standpoint.
8:37I mean, they had to work real hard in week 18 just to get him to a thousand yards.
8:42I mean, I remember just watching that game back like a lot of designer stuff.
8:46There's a play where they literally everybody else runs a clear out route and Justin Jefferson just kind of runs a quick
8:53slant into into open space again, just so they can get him to one thousand yards because it would have been humiliating
8:59if a talent like that comes away with fewer than, you know, kind of a meaningless benchmark at this point.
9:05So, I mean, he's he is an elite player.
9:07He's one of the two or two best receivers in the NFL right now.
9:11He's probably got a strong argument to be the best player in the reception perception era 2014 to current.
9:17I mean, he's the 98th percentile in success rate versus press for four straight seasons.
9:21Nobody else has done it even more than three during that span.
9:24So, yeah, I mean, we don't question Jefferson as an individual player.
9:28But to your point, like last year showed that nobody's quarterback proof, even maybe the best player that I've ever charted during
9:34this span of the last 12 or so years.
9:37So it's difficult from a fantasy standpoint because Kyler's a clear, clear upgrade.
9:40There's no doubt about that. He's even in an offense the last three years that he hasn't really fit.
9:46He's still like 18th to 20th in EPA per play.
9:49You know, he's been an effective average ish starting quarterback.
9:51The only question I have about their pairing, Matthew, is that Justin Jefferson's best stuff and he's great at everything, obviously, as I mentioned.
9:58But his best stuff comes in this offense when they get him on these intermediate and big in breaking routes.
10:04You know, his dig route success rate is incredibly high.
10:07He's been that's been his most commonly run route each of the last three seasons in Kevin O'Connell's offense.
10:12I mean, Sam Darnold has his flaws, but he was great at just launching that thing over the middle of the field to Justin Jefferson.
10:19And we saw what he did that season with Darnold.
10:22That is definitely the thing that Kyler Murray doesn't do the best.
10:26I mean, anybody that has, like myself, watched Marvin Harrison over these last few years.
10:30Harrison's got his own individual things he needs to work out.
10:33But he's a really good separator and a good route runner working over the middle of the field.
10:38And Kyler, just because of physics, because of height and the way he likes to play the position, he doesn't really access that area consistently.
10:45So I'm kind of hedging in my Jefferson fantasy rankings this year where I've got him as like the 13th overall player.
10:52So, you know, Josh Norris, my new colleague at Yahoo, likes to say, well, you don't have him as a first round pick.
10:58He's constantly on me about how I don't view Jefferson as a first round pick.
11:02I'm like, well, 13th overall, you know, who cares?
11:05But essentially, it is a little hedgy. It is a little hedgy.
11:08I have him at 10. I'm at 10 overall.
11:11I'm at wide receiver five. So I'm in on Jefferson.
11:14I understand. I agree with you. Like my belief, though, this is a guy that, you know, fifth straight season last year
11:20with a, you know, a target share above 26%, 30% last year as well.
11:24And so, you know, I think Kyler, I'm in on Kyler this year in a big way too.
11:29That's part of it as well. And so to your point about, you know, think about last year where they manufactured all
11:36those touches and tried to just, you know, schemed him to 1,000 yards.
11:39They're going to do the same thing this year.
11:42Like, you know, I believe that the stuff that Kyler's efficient, I don't know that Kyler's ever been coached really well.
11:48And maybe that's something on the player. Maybe it's something on the coaching staffs that he's had.
11:53But I think he's going, Kyler's going to the best situation of his career for a variety of reasons.
11:58Not just the offensive environment. Not just the people around him.
12:01Not just the head coach that resurrected Sam Darnold and, you know, got production out of Josh Dobbs and some of these other guys.
12:08But more importantly, like, he comes to Arizona and the entire, you know, franchise is on his back.
12:13He's got to put on the Superman cape. Right.
12:16But now he's going to a team with a really good defense and a pretty good run game, you know, and a good offensive line.
12:23Like, it's not all on Kyler. And I think, again, sort of been humbled.
12:27You know, he got basically replaced by Jacoby Brissett.
12:29So, you know, in a one-year prove-it deal for Kyler Murray, maybe he's more open to learning some more concepts, being a little bit better.
12:37So I'm in on Justin Jefferson this year. But I think it'll be fascinating to watch here as well.
12:42If you've read me or listened to me for any amount of time, you know that I have five kids.
12:48Or as I like to joke, my wife has six.
12:51But the fact is, is that it's a chaotic household.
12:53And there have been many a night where the fridge is bare, everyone's starving, and we need dinner now.
12:59Well, luckily, I have a secret weapon. I keep my freezer stocked with Omaha Steaks.
13:03You know, Omaha Steaks has spent over 100 years perfecting their craft, flash-freezing individually vacuum-sealed cuts of beef, seafood sides, and desserts.
13:09They go straight to your door. If you're ready to stop making last-minute store runs, their Burger Perfection flight is the ultimate starting point.
13:16You get 20, count them, 20 premium steak burgers crafted from five distinct cuts, including pure ground filet mignon, New York strip, ribeye, brisket, and sirloin.
13:24And it's all for just $79.99. Try the Burger Perfection flight at OmahaSteaks.com today.
13:28That is 20 premium steak burgers for just $79.99.
13:30Plus, you can get $35 off with the promo code FOOTBALLHOUR.
13:33Once again, that's OmahaSteaks.com. Use the promo code FOOTBALLHOUR and get $35 off at checkout.
13:38Terms apply. See site for details. I want to move on to Atlanta here because, again, we're talking about quarterback situations.
13:44We know these receivers are good, but we want to talk about the environment they're in for fantasy success.
13:49Is the Falcons quarterback situation a concern for Drake London?
13:52The numbers with Pennix were pretty good, but how healthy is Pennix going to be?
13:56Is there a chance we see Tuatunga Vailoa here?
13:59You know, they won't name a starter. The fans want the third stringer.
14:02Like, so, you know, I'm just curious, where are you on Drake London this year, especially as it relates to the question marks at quarterback for the Falcons?
14:10I mean, we can't have a conversation about how, yeah, maybe even Justin Jefferson is not quarterback proof and not say that
14:17the quarterback situation has got to be a concern for Drake London here, for sure.
14:21I mean, it's September 1st. They haven't told us who's starting in their first game.
14:25Their first game's what, like 12 days away? It's insane.
14:28I wonder if they're going to start Cooper Rush until Michael Pennix is ready because of just how bad it's been with
14:34the Tuatunga Vailoa stuff, which, I mean, that wouldn't be great for Drake London.
14:38Now, the good news is that the way he was used in the previous offense, where they would get him in motion,
14:45they would get him routes from the slot, you know, mostly as a Z receiver, off the line of scrimmage, in motion,
14:51the whole deal, that made him pretty close to quarterback proof, you know, whereas even in kind of comparison to Justin Jefferson,
14:57he's mostly running as that outside receiver as they're kind of role catering to everybody else.
15:02They really did a lot in the previous offense to get Drake London these free releases and kind of some layup looks.
15:08That is like a small concern in the back of my head is how is he going to be used in this
15:14Kevin Stefanski offense, which is likely to be more 12 personnel heavy.
15:18And, you know, their other receivers are like Zachariah Branch, Jahan Dotson, and these guys.
15:22Are we going to see Drake London kind of more as a static X?
15:26That's a small concern for me. So when I've been in the second round, I'm comfortable with Drake London there, but I
15:32have been breaking ties in favor of a guy like Nico Collins, who I've had ranked ahead of Drake London.
15:38Some of the running backs there I prefer. And, you know, other guys too, like George Pickens versus Drake London.
15:44That's a tough call to me. Chris Olave versus Drake London.
15:47I think like what's the difference between Drake Olave, excuse me, Drake London and Chris Olave, other than I feel more confident
15:53in the quarterback in New Orleans right now. Yeah.
15:56You know, there's more health concerns with Olave than there.
15:58I think there is with London as well. But I mean, I just last year with Michael Penix.
16:04So, I mean, I think we're all rooting for Michael Penix.
16:07And I know what you mean about Stefanski's offense, but like 35% target share, 97 receiving yards per game, 20 and a
16:13half fantasy points per game in the 12 career games with Michael Penix on our center for detective Drake London.
16:19Each of the last two seasons has been four wide receivers, kind of only four wide receivers to average at least 16
16:25and a half fantasy points per game on a PPR basis.
16:28Jamar Chase, Puka Nakua, Amon Ross St. Brown and detective Drake London.
16:32So, I think we're all rooting for Penix here as well.
16:35Is he great? No. But to me, the saving grace of Penix, I'm sorry, the saving grace of Drake London.
16:40And I'm at wide receiver seven. He's going as wide receiver eight.
16:44I'm at 18. He's going at 21 overall. Is the fact that they don't have much else.
16:49Yeah. They have Bijan out of the backfield. They have Kyle Pitts.
16:52Like, I'm not worried about any of the other complimentary players.
16:55So, it just feels like whatever efficiencies might be deficient there, that volume will make up for it with Drake London.
17:01The other thing I'll say, though, to your point, is I don't have a lot of Drake London this year because the
17:07way drafts fall, I tend to prefer running backs there or, you know, some of the other wide receivers that go in that range.
17:14Like, I'm way higher on Ken Walker and Chase Brown than consensus.
17:18Like, I have Walker at running back six. So, generally speaking, like, for me, he tends to be available then, you know,
17:24towards the end of the first round, early second.
17:27You know, him, Chase Brown. I tend to usually go running back in that spot than Drake London.
17:32I don't – I have him ahead of Nico, though, for me specifically.
17:35But I – you know, so I get that.
17:38Want to move on now. You know, Matt, I apologize to you and everyone in the fantasy football industry because you guys
17:44get inundated with – for about a week with my ride-or-die propaganda.
17:48And so this year I announced that my ride-or-die was Devontae Smith.
17:51So my audience has heard me talk ad nauseum about Devontae Smith, candidly, since the Combine, actually.
17:56And when I spoke to a team source who told me, like, we believe that if he could ever get a JSN-type
18:02target share, he would have that sort of year.
18:05And then other beat reporters have since reported that.
18:07So ever since the Combine, I've been all over Devontae Smith this year.
18:11I am at wide receiver 10 overall. You know, and I am at 24 overall as ADP is like 32.
18:17It's going to wide receiver 14. I should mention, Matt, I know you are a Yahoo company man.
18:22When I reference ADP, I'm referencing consensus ADP over at fantasylife.com.
18:25We have a great tool that tracks not just Yahoo, but ESPN and CBS and Sleeper and FFPC and NFFC and, you
18:31know, guillotine leagues and, like, every single underdog and, you know, every single platform where you draft.
18:36We couch it all. And so it's always – but so that's when I talk about consensus ADP.
18:41That's – it's coming from the fantasylife.com tool. So I don't know exactly where Smith goes specifically on Yahoo, but just where are you on Devontae Smith?
18:49Am I crazy? Because I have met wide receiver 10, but I think he's got top five wide receiver upside from both
18:55the talent and potential target share competition with no A.J.
18:58Brown and, you know, just Makai Lemon dealing with a foot injury and, you know, and Dontavian Wicks, who I kind of
19:04like Dontavian Wicks, but – Yeah, me too. Yeah.
19:07Anyway, I'm curious as to your thoughts on Devontae Smith.
19:10Yeah, unfortunately, your audience is not going to get a different perspective on this one because we quite literally have him ranked
19:16the same spot from an overall standpoint. I got him at 24th overall.
19:20I have him as my 11th ranked wide receiver.
19:22I think Devontae Smith is going to outproduce A.J.
19:25Brown this year as the wide receiver one in Philadelphia, you know, now that obviously A.J.
19:29Brown is gone. But, I mean, I think Smith is – you know, you mentioned that note that you had from the combine.
19:36I had heard the same thing, and that to me was the moment that I knew, oh, when you're already soft launching
19:42the, well, this guy could be a number one.
19:45Like, A.J.'s obviously out of there when someone from the organization is putting that out there.
19:49So that was something to me that I think we both saw the same thing there.
19:54We're seeing the same thing from a fantasy standpoint.
19:57And, yeah, Smith, I think, is a stud. I think he's ready to be – he's been ready to be a number one for quite some time.
20:04And we actually saw him as the number one in his rookie season when he had over 900 yards when the team
20:11wasn't that good as a passing unit overall. And that's another thing that's important about Smith is the last couple years, he's
20:17kind of moved into a slot-first role. But from 2021 to 2023, he took an average in reception perception of 80% of
20:23his sample snaps outside and 70% on the line of scrimmage, like as a true X receiver, which is what he's going to play this year.
20:31His success rate was pressed last year, 83rd percentile.
20:33That's pretty much what he's been throughout the course of his career.
20:36Really strong press man coverage beater who can win at all three levels.
20:40I love that he can run these big intermediate in- and outbreaking routes.
20:44If you look at his RP success rate chart, those are some of his best patterns.
20:48And that's what this offense under Sean Mannion is going to want to hunt those plays in that area.
20:54Jalen Hurts has to adjust his game a little bit.
20:57I think it's fair to question whether he can or can't.
21:00But if he can, there's a big season ahead of Devontae Smith here who I think has already proven everything that you
21:06need to see in isolation of him being like that true number one receiver.
21:10Yeah. To me, that's part of the argument that I made.
21:13I wrote a column about why I chose him at Ride or Die and also my Love Hate column, which is just
21:20like, I don't need Devontae Smith to do anything different.
21:22Like, he already knows how to do all that.
21:25He already knows how to separate. He already knows how to get open.
21:29He already knows how to earn targets. I just need him to get more of that.
21:33And I think, obviously, with A.J. Brown and his 29% target share leaving, like, just opens it up.
21:38And so I do like, you know, like over the past two seasons, in games in which he sees at least seven
21:45targets, and I don't think that's a crazy number for him to get to, over the past two seasons when he sees
21:51seven targets, he's averaging over 18 fantasy points per game, 18.3 to be exact.
21:55And over each of the past five seasons, here's the entire list of wide receivers over the past five seasons to average
22:01at least 8.5 yards per target each of the last five years.
22:05Devontae Smith, that's the list. So I just, you know, he's somebody that, he's somebody that I think can really ascend.
22:11So he is my ride or die. I'm excited that you're on board with him as well as an elite option there.
22:17So here's another guy. So I saw one of the comments that they were really excited that we were talking about Drake
22:23London, because people haven't really talked about him this year.
22:26Certainly we haven't talked about him that much on this show.
22:29And here's another guy that I don't think we've talked about, and I don't think the fantasy community has talked about him a lot.
22:36I did a Reddit AMA yesterday, which you can go check that out on the Fantasy Football subreddit if you want.
22:42But one of the questions I got asked on the Reddit AMA, Matt, was why is no one talking about Rasheed Rice?
22:48That I feel like the fantasy community just isn't really talking about Rasheed Rice.
22:52And so the answer I gave at the Reddit AMA was, I think it's because all of us in the fantasy community, there's just so many unknowns.
23:00How healthy is Mahomes? How healthy is Rice? What's going on with this off-the-field stuff?
23:04We're hearing a lot of off-season buzz about, you know, or camp buzz that Xavier Worthy, fully healthy, looks stronger.
23:10Kelsey came back. So it just feels like, you know, they just signed Ken Walker to a massive deal.
23:15Are they going to be more run-heavy than they have in the past?
23:19So it just feels like there's a lot of question marks about Rasheed Rice.
23:23And I'm curious where you stand on him this year.
23:26Yeah, I probably not talked about much because there's not a lot of good things to say about how his off-season has gone.
23:32I mean, he rehabbed a freaking injury from jail, and then every clip that's come out of Chiefs training camp, it's like,
23:39man, look at these guys like Cyrus Allen tearing it up.
23:42By the way, I loved Cyrus Allen as a prospect.
23:45He's exactly kind of what they needed as a man coverage beating receiver.
23:48And then meanwhile, it's like, well, there's Rasheed Rice kind of laboring through his routes and everything.
23:53So it just hasn't been a lot of good things to say.
23:57I think Rice also goes in this range of wide receivers where we've talked about some of these early guys so far.
24:03But to me, Matthew, the most enjoyable range to kind of draft wide receivers this year is late round three to maybe early round six.
24:10But really, rounds four to five is just like the meat of the wide receiver position this year.
24:15So many good picks in that range. Rasheed Rice kind of falls in that range.
24:19So I end up talking myself out of Rice more often than talking myself into Rice because one, there's all the off-field concerns that we just mentioned.
24:27Then the second part of it, though, is that when I stack him up as a player, I know he's been very,
24:33very productive on a per-game, per-route basis. And you got to do all the per-game, per-route stuff because he's never consistently on
24:40the football field with injuries and off-field issues. But to me, he's like the most limited player in terms of how you
24:46have to deploy him among all these other guys.
24:49Like Rice is an excellent zone coverage beater. 83rd percentile success rate versus zone coverage.
24:53But ninth percentile against man coverage. And all last season, before Patrick Mahomes even got hurt him for it, Rice eventually left the season.
25:00And you could tell this Chiefs offense was really struggling against man coverage.
25:03And it's like, well, yeah, we'll cede the underneath production to Rasheed Rice.
25:07But we are not scared, really, of these guys from a man coverage standpoint.
25:11It was a limiting factor for the offense. And I think that's why they went out and they got a guy like
25:17Kenneth Walker who is going to be a fundamental change for us.
25:21I'm very high on Kenneth Walker, too. It's the reason I have Jefferson 13th overall because I've got Kenneth Walker 12th overall.
25:27So Rice, I think, probably a pretty safe like floor play overall.
25:31But I do wonder if we see fewer of those kind of quick designed screen touches to him because those are kind
25:37of extension of the run game looks. Now they have a guy in the run game to actually just be that explosive player for them.
25:44So I end up talking myself out of Rasheed Rice in the fourth round more than talking myself into it.
25:50Meanwhile, by the way, Valiant Vincent says, Matt sounds like me at the taco truck getting a burrito, trying to talk myself
25:56into more rice, but I'm not sure I'm buying it, which is fair.
26:00It does, there is a lot of like self-consternation when it comes to Rasheed Rice because again, the price tag is still
26:06pricey and there's potentially more, there's definitely upside, but there's definitely more, maybe more downside.
26:10I'm at 31 overall, wide receiver 14. It's about where he's going.
26:14I'm about on the market with him, but I don't have a ton of them this year for exactly that reason as well.
26:20And I'm a, I, you know, you sort of, so I mean, I have Ken Walker at running back six.
26:26You just mentioned, you know, I'm very high on, you know, on Walker this year as well.
26:31I also think, I also think that this year I find myself, you know, going fairly running back heavy in drafts.
26:37And I have a lot of like Colston Loveland in the third, you know, I've done that, you know, Colston Loveland in
26:43the third or the fourth, depending on where he drops.
26:46I have a ton of Loveland this year. So yeah, that, that, you know, to your point, wide receiver, I feel like
26:52is so deep this year and that, you know, rounds four through six, you can get two good guys that you feel good about.
26:59And so it just, in terms, you rank them where you rank them because you feel like you have to.
27:05And because like, that's probably going to, he's going to wind up somewhere in that range here.
27:09But just in terms of how drafts play out, I don't necessarily find myself always being like, yeah, I feel good about that.
27:16Yeah. It's just, there's just not great vibes, if you will.
27:19Somebody else that, I mean, I have been a keeper league, but I don't have a lot of Ted Arroa, McMillan and redraft this year.
27:26This is the concern is that we know the guy's a phenomenal player, or at least I think he is.
27:32You'll tell me if his reception perception is accurate to that.
27:35But I think he's a phenomenal player. But my concern is last year, he got 43% of his team's air yards, which
27:41is the fifth highest rate among wide receivers. He was top 12 among wide receivers in the NFL in end zone targets.
27:48He had a 32% end zone target share. He got a ton of work.
27:52And yet, 11 different games with under 12 fantasy points, he had one, count him, one weekly top 10 finish.
27:57Like this guy got a massive target share and it still didn't translate into big production.
28:02Like, and it's not like he didn't score touchdowns.
28:04He definitely had touchdowns. You know what I mean?
28:07Like, I don't know what to do with Ted Arroa, McMillan, other than like, I know he's a very good wide receiver,
28:13but it just doesn't feel like fantasy production is going to be there with Bryce Young under center and Dave Canales wanted to be a very balanced offense.
28:21Curious where you are on the man they call Ted.
28:24Ted. Yeah, I'm in, well, it doesn't like to be called Ted.
28:28So, I mean. No, I know. We like to call Ted.
28:31He does not like to be called. He likes to be called Ted Arroa or T-Mac.
28:35T-Mac. We interviewed him and he told us that as well.
28:38But like, I'm at wide receiver 20, Matt. So I guess my question to you is, what's the ceiling for McMillan?
28:44Yeah, I think you have to tell yourself a little bit of a story to get to the ceiling here.
28:50And I'm not going to say it's impossible to go on.
28:53And yeah, by the way, just from a ranking standpoint, I'm also wide receiver 19.
28:58His ADP on Yahoo is like wide receiver 18.
29:00So we're pretty much in line. And that's kind of where I want to be with a guy like Ted Arroa McMillan,
29:06where I want to be kind of in line with the ADP.
29:10I don't want to be over my skis with him because it's really easy to tell yourself the story of how this doesn't work out.
29:17It's like, well, it's Bryce Young and that's that.
29:19I think the couple of things that might be changing here for the Panthers offense and specifically how it will impact Ted
29:26Arroa is number one, you know, it is a coordinator change here.
29:29Like Dave Canales no longer is no longer calling the plays.
29:32Brad Idzik, who's been with Dave forever. You know, I think it's probably going to look pretty similar offensively, but Brad Idzik is calling the plays now.
29:40And I think there's at least been some buzz out of Carolina that they might want to spread the football field more,
29:46get more like receivers out of the route and let Bryce Young play point guard as opposed to let's get big, heavy,
29:53condensed, lean on our run game and have Bryce like push the football down the field.
29:57That hasn't really been. And they've just been a weird offense the last few years because I think they're trying to blend two different worlds.
30:04Like Dave is kind of trying to compromise with Bryce.
30:07Bryce is kind of trying to meet him halfway.
30:10It's been a lot going on there and Bryce has just not really been a productive player during it.
30:15So if that can happen, I think that fits the quarterback better.
30:19The other thing that really matters for McMillan is that they have said all offseason that they want to play him more in the slot.
30:26And so far in the preseason, promises made, promises kept.
30:29It's been a 60-40 outside to inside ratio for McMillan and for Jalen Coker.
30:32And Coker emerging in the second, I mean, Coker's one of my favorite receivers in the league.
30:37I love Jalen Coker. Coker tonight. Exactly. The fact that he can play X receiver allows McMillan, who was only in the
30:44slot on 50% of his plays last year, to kick inside and maybe get more easy button layup looks a la what's happened with Drake London in Atlanta.
30:52And I think these guys kind of belong in the same like wide receiver family.
30:56So if you get the kind of sense here, like I said, you kind of have to tell yourself a story of how this works out.
31:03And it's not an easy, just like, well, project this, project that.
31:07And that's kind of why I've ended up in line with ADP on Tedrow and McMillan.
31:11And I'm definitely down to take Coker later because I think their production might be a little bit closer than current ADP kind of has it ranked.
31:19Yeah, I agree. I mean, again, we've been talking about this, you know, for like two years, but, you know, all of
31:25his fan base, the Coke heads, we are the Coke heads.
31:28And so if you could, I don't know if you guys ever talk, I don't know if you talk about that on
31:35your show, on any of the shows that you do, Matt, but if you could help me make Coke heads a thing.
31:41Oh, we've been, we've been saying it. Yeah. Don't worry.
31:44Our, our, our, our communities are aligned here on this one.
31:47Amazing. Coke heads unite. Well, I'm curious. So, so far, this has been great because so far we've, we've, we've seen mostly eye to eye on stuff.
31:55So I'm curious about, I think we might be slightly different on this one here, which is, is I want to talk about the bears wide receivers.
32:02So I'm very high on the bears overall and Ben Johnson's offensive season.
32:06I'm sure you are as well. I think Caleb has a monster year.
32:10Loveland was a runner up for my ride or die.
32:13And, you know, we like, I actually think Deandre Swift is massively undervalued this year.
32:17You know, he's just boring and no one likes him, but he's going to wind up with, you know, 1300 yards and, you know, good touchdown numbers.
32:25And then if you've got Luther burden and Roma duns, a, and, you know, for burden was, you know, has been like
32:31kind of a fantasy darling, a very buzzy name this off season, at least until the injury.
32:36And the duns, a was that last year. And then he got banged up.
32:40Where are you on the bears wide receivers? They pretty close in ADP.
32:43So it's very rare that you're going to be able to get burden and a duns.
32:48So if you have to pick one, where are you going and why?
32:52Yeah. Let me give the kind of mission statement here before I pick my answer here.
32:56And that I, I don't love the idea that you have to hate one to like the other, because I should really,
33:02really, really like both of these players. And I think generally the answer to like, which bears player should you take is yes.
33:09Like I want all the pieces of this offense.
33:12However, when I look at, you know, as we're showing on the screen here, ADP for Luther burden, ADP for Roma duns.
33:18Hey, I think a duns is the one who's more undervalued.
33:21On that ADP. I'm such a fan of his game.
33:24And I think we saw the breakout start to take place last year when he comes out there.
33:29I know there's like a narrative map. You don't know if you've said this, but I've seen other people say this.
33:35Like, well, you know, Ben Johnson inherited Roma duns.
33:38He, he drafted Luther burden and Colson Loveland, but he inherited Roma duns and proceeded to run his entire passing game through
33:44him in the first eight weeks of the season before he suffered a foot fracture.
33:48And a duns. It was good with that volume.
33:51He was top 20 in yards per route run in the first eight weeks of the season.
33:56Again, before popping up with the injury. And he's just one of these receivers from an archetype standpoint that I really want
34:02to bet on 85th percentile success rate versus man in reception perception, 93rd against press.
34:06I just believe that had he not suffered that injury, we would have seen a full season long breakout for Roma duns.
34:12And now would he have been, you know, clearly dominating the targets like he was early on?
34:17Probably not because Loveland I think is, is excellent.
34:20And I, again, I'm a huge fan of Luther burden as well.
34:23He's another one that if you just look at his profile and isolation in RP, like, yeah, I'm betting on that guy 10 times out of 10.
34:31So I think there's a chance these guys all kind of nip at each other's heels a little bit here, but a
34:37duns a based on the ADP all summer is the one that I think is the most undervalued.
34:42I just want to bet on a guy who's a downfield route runner, route winner with a quarterback who I think is going to improve.
34:49So yeah, he's someone that in the sixth round, I ended up taking a Roma duns a quite a lot.
34:55Yeah. You know, and it's tough because I mean, like I like a duns a as well.
35:00I don't like him as much as you. I mean, so, I mean, I have, I'm at wide, I have a duns a at 29.
35:07I burned at 22. So, and I'm, so I'm slightly lower on a duns a in, and ADP.
35:12I'm higher on, on burden. So I'm team burden here, but I agree with you.
35:17Like, I don't want to sit here and talk down Roma duns a, um, cause I think he's really good.
35:22And your point, your point is right. I mean, like, you know, last year, everyone was in on DJ more and then
35:29a duns a was the guy that right for the first eight games before he got hurt was getting, you know, all
35:35the love and, and having a, you know, was a, you know, duns a has dealt with injuries throughout his career.
35:41You know, not only was he banged up last year, but he's banged up some in college.
35:46Like, so there's, I think there's more of a, as we sit here on, I was going to say, yeah, banged up.
35:52One guy is coming back from an injury currently.
35:54I know. I know exactly. But you know, he's on supposedly according to Ben Johnson, he's a hundred percent for opening, uh, opening day.
36:01So, uh, it's great, but I just, the explosiveness with burden top five of both yards per target, yards per route run
36:08among wide receivers, at least 50 more targets. So, um, you know, you just have to sort of choose.
36:13I think there's, I guess my point is, is if you tell me, I think they're both, I think the, the bears office is gonna be awesome.
36:21I think they're all going to be great. But if, if you say, Hey, a year from now, we're talking about, wow,
36:27the bears top five fantasy wide receiver overall blank.
36:30I think burden has a better chance to get there than a duns a does.
36:34Um, for a variety of reasons. So this one's, you know, just in terms of, you know, as a rookie, what he
36:40did in the second half of the year, just the, the massive amount of targets that he earned, you know, 25% of
36:46his routes, um, you know, which is top 20 among all wide receivers last year, among qualified wide receivers.
36:52I just, for me, it's a little bit of a feel thing.
36:55I just, I'm more excited about burden, but I don't think you're wrong.
36:59And I know you're right. And to say like, Hey, we don't want to talk down Roman Doons here.
37:04We don't want to talk down with the burden.
37:07Like you don't have to hate one to like the other.
37:10We like all of them, but I'm asking you to pick because generally, like I'm saying at ADP, it feels like they're, it's hard to get both.
37:18And most people won't, even if you could, um, most people aren't going to want to choose both wide receivers from the
37:24bears, unless you're, you know, potentially in a best ball and you're doing a stack.
37:28I would say I've ended up drafting like Colson Loveland and Roman Duns is probably the, of the two.
37:34If I'm taking two on one team, those are the two I end up getting more often.
37:39That's happened to me at least a couple of times in drafts this year.
37:43But yeah, I mean, I have Rome ranked ahead of Luther burden going into the year.
37:47So I ended up with a lot of Rome and kind of like a medium amount of Luther burden, just based on where the ADP is right now.
37:55Uh, cause where I have Roma dunes, a ranked, it's like you're using my rankings.
37:59You're going to end up taking him probably a little bit ahead of ADP, which I'm, which I'm totally fine with.
38:05Again, I think Luther, if Caleb Williams doesn't improve from a downfield, you know, push the ball accuracy standpoint, which even the
38:12biggest Caleb Williams fan in the world would have to admit that he does need to improve on that.
38:17Like otherwise completely intellectually dishonest. Uh, I, I think that burden is the one who's most insulated against that.
38:22So in a weird way, even though he's like the, you know, the yards per out run, the exciting younger by like
38:29a couple of years player, he actually, I think probably is the safer bet, which is why I do think he goes higher.
38:35Uh, by the way, uh, intellectually dishonest is a good fantasy football team name.
38:39Hey, is we talked about him earlier in the show, Matt, uh, when we were talking about Kyler Murray, but you know,
38:46Marvin Harrison has been one of these guys that like, like we want him to be great.
38:50He still just isn't like, is there, is there still hope for a Marvin Harrison Jr.
38:55Breakout? I, I, you know, I had the number, I, I'm in a dynasty league with a bunch of like, with like
39:01Scott Barrett and Evan Silva and a bunch of these guys.
39:04And, um, I, I, two years ago, like I basically tanked to get the number one pick.
39:09Cause I, I, I, I won a title. I decided to, um, I actually won two basically had to rebuild.
39:15Shout out to you. Yeah. Shout out to me.
39:17Um, yeah. Take that Scott Barrett. Although he won last year.
39:21So, um, but anyway, um, the point being here, the reason I bring this up, Matt is that, um, you know, I
39:27drafted Marvin Harrison number one overall that year where everyone was like, he's the consensus number one dynasty pick.
39:32And it's been disappointing for me. Actually. I mean, I, I got lad McConkie in that same draft.
39:37I've been happier with him. Yeah. Um, Marv is a really interesting player to talk about.
39:42Um, I could honestly talk about Marv for hours.
39:45Um, as a matter of fact, we only have 12 minutes.
39:48So try to do this one quickly, but yes, well, here, just a quick, uh, sell, uh, for my own YouTube channel.
39:54If your subscribers are watching this, go check out my YouTube channel where I quite literally did talk about an hour on
40:00the Arizona Cardinals, because I am admittedly Cardinals curious this year because, I think Mike LaFleur is really going to change the
40:07way we view this passing game and some of the players within this passing game specifically, but that's a whole separate thing.
40:13I would say just with Marv, I think you can hold two thoughts in your head at one time in that one
40:19for people like you who drafted him first overall and dynasty drafts, uh, you know, and for the Arizona Cardinals and Cardinals
40:25fans, fourth overall pick all the hype that has come along with his name and the whole deal.
40:30He has been objectively disappointing when held to those standards.
40:33I also think though, he has not been nearly as bad as kind of like the Twitter doom loop wants you to
40:40think, um, because of some drops and some really rough moments.
40:43Um, because when I watch him as like a separator, people think this guy can't get open.
40:48That's crazy to me. I 80th percentile success rate versus man, just under 79% against zone coverage.
40:52I think he's a really good technically refined route runner, which is kind of what makes him a hard player to talk about too.
40:59Cause he's more of like a souped up craftsman receiver, like a big Devante Smith, as opposed to, you know, this overwhelming physical specimen and all that.
41:07So I think that's just made him a bit of a, I was telling my colleague, Nate Tice this for years when
41:13he was on the previous Cardinals bandwagon. I was like, brother, Kyler, Marv and drew petsing are all fine in their own right.
41:20They just all need to get away from each other because there's just like, it's leaning into each other's worst tendencies.
41:26So I'm kind of wiping the slate clean from a production standpoint with Marv this year.
41:30It is a little crowded in Arizona. I have a lot of hope that he can become, cause I kind of already
41:37think he is a good NFL player. You know, will he ever reach those highs that we may be dreamed of?
41:43I think it's possible. Maybe not like the most probable outcome.
41:46And I would just say when I think about like a souped up craftsman receiver, and this was one of my points
41:52in the, in the Cardinals curious video with Jordan Rodrigue, that when Michael Ford talks about him as the X receiver in
41:58this offense, which the easiest illusion is, is Devante Adams last year, which I kind of hate, like he's going to play in this guy's role, whatever.
42:06But if he did, Devante Adams is kind of like a souped up craftsman receiver as that X receiver.
42:11And I don't think he's going to score 14 touchdowns or whatever Marv, but I do like him at his ADP this
42:18year, just cause again, I think this team from an offensive standpoint is going to be a little bit better than the fantasy community.
42:25Things currently going at 75 overall wide receiver, 32.
42:27I'm at wide receiver, 33, 72 overall, slightly higher than consensus, but basically right there, he's had four games with Jacoby Brissett
42:33where he's played at least 60% of the snaps.
42:36It's averaging 14.4 fantasy points per game. And I remember talking to a member of the Cardinals coaching staff at the combine
42:42and I asked him about Marv and the answer I got is like, Marvin's good.
42:47We need to find out if he's great. Yeah.
42:49I thought that was a, I think that's kind of what you're saying here as well, Matt, which is just like, yeah,
42:55if he had a different last name, you know, and if he had come into the NFL under different circumstances, not with
43:02all the hype, you know what I mean? And he was just like, everyone would be like, yeah, he's solid.
43:07He's good. But just because he has, because he had such lofty expectations and his father, you know, is, you know, such
43:14an elite player in his own right. Yeah. I think the, the, the general perception is that he has been disappointing.
43:20And so I think held to those standards, I think you're absolutely right.
43:23But yeah, I mean, look, if he's your wide receiver for, I kind of like him.
43:28We know he's going to get targets. We think this offense is going to be better.
43:32So yeah, I don't, I definitely at price. I definitely don't mind him nine minutes left here, Matt Harmon.
43:38So let me ask you this question. Who's going to be the number one wide receiver in Jacksonville.
43:43Is it Parker Washington? Are you buying into the hype or is it Brian Thomas Jr.?
43:48Can we see some Jacoby Myers slip in there when you chart the Jaguars wide receivers?
43:52How do you see this shaking out? Yeah, this is one of like the biggest questions of the off season.
43:58And funny enough, my opinion on this hasn't really changed all throughout the off season, despite some of the kind of, I
44:04would say like at least like post NFL draft, it hasn't really moved very much because the way I have this ranked
44:10right now is that I have Parker Washington is the top receiver in Jacksonville, but I still have Brian Thomas Jr.
44:16in the same tier because ultimately the way I think this is like the base case scenario, how this most likely plays
44:23out is that this Jaguars receiver room kind of resembles the Packers of the last few years where everybody's good.
44:28And just from a production standpoint, not like who they are as players, everybody's good, but nobody's great, you know, and there's
44:35a lot of rotation here and they play a lot of heavy personnel.
44:38I mean, they draft Nate Borker in the second round of the draft to play more multiple tight end sets.
44:44That's something that the GM talked about wanting to follow the trend of the NFL.
44:48So I think we'll see more of that this year.
44:51It's still primarily be a free receiver team. And the other two things that I just think are going to happen.
44:57One, I think Travis Hunter will integrate into like, call it 20, 25, maybe 30% of the routes over the course of
45:03the season, which I thought maybe might be a problem for Parker Washington.
45:07That's one thing that I have changed my stance on is that now it sounds like based on the reporting.
45:13And I like this for Travis, he's more going to be an outside receiver, which might actually end up taking away routes
45:19from BTJ, which is why I flipped post draft had BTJ one and Parker two.
45:23I flipped X. I think Parker will just be on the field more, but the other part of this is like, Jacoby Myers is a good player.
45:31Basically like save their, save their offense last year.
45:34You look at all the details that he charts out with an RP.
45:37I mean, it's a perfect fit for this offense.
45:40So I think that's why it's like four guys will play a decent bit.
45:44The top two guys will probably be around like 70% of the routes, just kind of off where you'd want from a wide receiver one true eruption.
45:52I don't think that's going to happen here in Jacksonville, like a wide receiver one overall fantasy wise, but I'd still say
45:58Parker's the just safest bet of the group, but I'm not giving up on BTJ because I kind of want to just give him a pass.
46:05What happened last year because of injuries and everything like that.
46:08I still think a good quality player is within there.
46:11Even if, you know, five years from now we look back at his rookie season and kind of admit to ourselves that
46:18production wise, that was a little bit inflated by bad team.
46:21A bunch of dudes got hurt. And Mac Jones just like ripping the ball.
46:25Yeah, it was, it was a lot of his production came with Mac Jones in the rookie year, which people don't talk about nearly as much.
46:32And Trevor loves Parker Washington. Like when I, when I talked to Trevor in January, I was like, can I just give
46:38me the scouting report on all your receivers? You know, he talks glowingly about Parker Washington, talk about everybody else, and then
46:45doubled back to talk about Parker Washington again. And you could just tell watching these two guys, like they have a really great connection.
46:51Yeah. And I mean, it's obvious, like, you know, like he had six different games of 70 or more fantasy points last
46:58season, more than any other Jacksonville wide receiver, more than all the other Jags receivers combined, you know, in the five games
47:04that he played with both Jacoby Myers and BTJ guy had a 22% target share.
47:08So yeah, I'm a Parker Washington truther. I, you know, I think he's a good player.
47:13I'm at 64 wide receiver, 30. And then I have BTJ though.
47:16I have it 71 higher than consensus. He's going at 82.
47:19I'm at wide receiver, 32. He's going at 34.
47:22So higher on the higher than Washington and higher than the consensus on both Washington and Thomas.
47:27Sorry, since we're in the happy hour here, can I tell you my player comparison for, for, for, for Parker Washington when,
47:33when he came into the league was Bud Light, Golden Tate.
47:36And like, there you go. I kind of just, now I kind of just think he's full ABV, Golden Tate, like smaller,
47:43but compact, tougher, muscled up at the catch point, muscled up after the catch and, you know, a pretty solid route runner and separator as well.
47:50So I kind of, I mean, that's a pretty cool player in a Liam Cohen offense.
47:55It really is. Hey, give me a couple of your favorite kind of late round wide receiver sleepers where we've got five minutes left here.
48:02So do real quickly, but just give me a couple of names that, yeah, that you like to target latent drafts.
48:08Yeah. We talked about Casey Concepcion. He's somebody outside the top a hundred that I really like.
48:12Josh Downs, Yahoo, ADP 104th overall, despite the Keenan Allen signing, you know, despite Alec Pierce, hopefully playing early in the season.
48:19I really love Josh Downs. I've always been a big fan of his game that I think is more of like a
48:25Tyler Lockett receiver than he gets credit for. Somebody that can win down the football field and play in two receiver sets.
48:31Um, just a long time Josh Downs fan, uh, overall to just keep going down the list.
48:36Like Jaden Reed is similar archetype in green Bay that I'd like to make a bet on.
48:41I don't mind taking Matthew golden either where he goes.
48:44Like I want to be, just be betting on the Packers passing game this year.
48:48And that's been kind of a consistent thought for me.
48:51Um, one guy that gets like no love that I think it's kind of crazy as a true deep sleeper is Jalen
48:57Noel in, in Houston down there with Nico Collins.
49:00I think Nico is going to smash this year.
49:02I think he's got wide receiver one overall in his range of outcomes, but Noel was, you know, impressive in small glimpses as a rookie, a prospect.
49:10I really liked, I was really into Jaden Higgins this season as the Z receiver in Houston, obviously his removal and replacing him with K Sean booty.
49:18I think is a downgrade. I also, by the way, like we talked about Jalen noise, he's going to be slot only player.
49:24K Sean booty is five 11. Jalen. No, it's five 11.
49:27K Sean booty is 203 pounds. Jalen knows 200 pounds.
49:30You're telling me three pounds going to make all the difference here.
49:34I don't think so. So I just think Jalen knows a guy who could end up being, you know, close to like
49:40the number two receiver in Houston, which might not be like fantasy eruption status, but better than his, I was looking at
49:46it this morning, the fantasy pros consensus. He's like three, you know, 300 or something overall.
49:51I think he's going to give you a better than that.
49:54I'll give you a couple in my names here.
49:57Again, we talked about Xavier where they really like him again, especially given the, you know, this is a guy we were
50:03drafting like, you know, in the first couple of rounds last year.
50:06And now he's going outside the top 100. And, and, you know, again, every, every report is the reason, you know, when
50:13he came back from injury and he was banged up the entire year.
50:16So they really limited his route tree last year, to try to protect him this year, fully healthy.
50:21He's stronger. So, uh, uh, Xavier Michi, uh, Xavier worthy, Adonai Mitchell, give me some 80 Mitchell.
50:26That's right. You know, um, just the, the, the drum beat continues to get louder out of jets camp in terms of
50:32like, this is a guy that was, you know, like a second round draft pick seemed to like lost in Indianapolis, but
50:39you know, with competent quarterback play, you know, or competent adjacent quarterback play in, in Gino Smith, I think Adonai Mitchell is really interesting.
50:46I think Pat Bryant in Denver, especially, you know, I'm not, I'm not a big Cortland Sutton fan this year.
50:51It feels like Bryant's been having a very strong camp.
50:54So I think he's really interesting. I, uh, I mentioned earlier, Dontavian Wicks, like again, with lemon, with lemon struggling with injuries
51:00and like the, the familiarity with Mannion system from green Bay, kind of like Dontavian Wicks, who I always felt like was
51:07productive when he would get an opportunity in green Bay.
51:10And I kind of like both Miami because of their, they're, they're basically free.
51:14I actually think Chris bell and Caleb Douglas, I think both guys, you know, I'm, I don't think Miami is going to
51:20be great, but I don't think they're going to be historically bad.
51:23I think they're going to be like just normal bad.
51:26And, um, and there's going to be production out of normal bad.
51:30So, um, yeah, those are a couple of the guys.
51:32We have a minute 45 left very quickly. Give me your thoughts on Skylar bell, who I mentioned top of the show.
51:39Yeah. Skylar bell. I think probably profiles as, um, a complimentary receiver.
51:42Who's more of like a speed Z option. Think about how the 49ers probably were going to use Ricky Pierce all this
51:48year, I think was a pretty solid comparison for a guy like Skylar bell.
51:52Um, I'm DJ more is one of the guys I've changed my mind on the most.
51:57We're coming in this off season. I was like, I don't know if I really see it with DJ more, but, um,
52:03did a study on some of my own reception perception data where it's like, how can I quantify who's the most misused receiver last year?
52:10And his, just like the routes he wins on versus the routes.
52:14He was asked to run in Buffalo last year, or excuse me, in Chicago last year, he's just not a fit with Ben Johnson's off.
52:21I don't think he's gonna be a fit with his Buffalo offense.
52:24So I think it's going to be like a pretty concentrated passing game this year between more.
52:29I think James Cook's going to catch football more than we saw previously Dalton Kincaid.
52:33But after that, it's pretty wide open for Skylar bell.
52:36Cause I've never been a big key on Coleman guy.
52:39And Kalish here has like his specified role, but I could see bell emerging as a Z receiver.
52:44I don't know how there's like a ton of upside there, but you know, a solid useful player.
52:49I think he could be. Yeah. I like him a lot in dynasty.
52:53As I mentioned, Hey, we're going to do a listener league.
52:56We're going to do a guillotine league, guillotine leagues.com.
52:59We're going to do a guillotine league, listener league.
53:01And here's how we're going to decide who's going to be in it.
53:05Whoever the top commenters are on YouTube. So regulars start commenting.
53:08We'll, we'll announce the league, I think on Friday.
53:11So just so you know, we're going to look, we can see who comments the most.
53:15It is going to be our top commenters and the regulars fantasy football league reception, perception.com Yahoo sports.
53:20Matt Harmon will follow you on social media at Matt Harmon underscore B Y B.
53:25It's closing time tomorrow. Dwayne McFarlane tells you exactly how to draft, but you don't have to go home, but you can't stay here.
53:32I'm Matthew Berry. Peace out.
More episodes from Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
The Perfect Draft Strategy for 2026
Sep 2, 2026
Preseason Love/Hate (WRs + TEs)
Aug 28, 2026
Preseason Love/Hate (QBs + RBs)
Aug 27, 2026