Late Round Sleepers with Adam Levitan
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
53 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 12, 2026
Published
Wed, August 12, 2026
23
Player insights
21
Players mentioned
Topics
Josh DownsTank BigsbyBrian RobinsonChuba HubbardDavid MontgomeryJalen CokerJalen McMillanJayden ReedJonathon BrooksJordyn TysonJustin JeffersonJuwan JohnsonKeaton MitchellKyler Murray
Player analysis
Player insights
Brian Robinson
NegativeUsage42:01
Adam Levitan notes that while Brian Robinson would likely see increased work if Bijan Robinson were injured, he would not offer the same high-end fantasy upside as other elite handcuffs like Tank Bigsby.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeBust24:28
Matthew Berry and Adam Levitan express skepticism regarding Chuba Hubbard's long-term role, citing poor efficiency metrics across explosive run rate, yards after contact, and broken tackle percentage. Berry notes Hubbard lost his job to Rico Dowdle last year and lacks the receiving profile that makes Jonathan Brooks a superior prospect.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveUsage27:52
Matthew Berry and Adam Levitan describe David Montgomery as a boring but reliable fantasy asset who is projected for 300 touches. While not efficient, he is expected to serve as the lead back in a productive offense, making him a safe, high-floor pick.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveSleeper22:06
Adam Levitan highlights Jalen Coker as a late-round sleeper available in the 130s, citing his status as an every-down receiver opposite Ted Rory McMillan and strong per-target and per-route efficiency metrics. Levitan notes that while Bryce Young's poor play limits Coker's current ceiling, he is a viable bench stash who could beat his ADP if the quarterback improves.
Insight pageJalen McMillan
NegativeRole5:32
Matthew Berry expects the Buccaneers to start Jalen McMillan at X receiver, though he notes McMillan had a minor knee issue. Adam Levitan believes that assuming health, the primary target earners will be Chris Godwin and Trey Palmer, but McMillan remains the current favorite for the third receiver spot.
Insight pageJayden Reed
PositiveSleeper22:12
Adam Levitan and Matthew Berry are both bullish on Jayden Reed, who is expected to operate as the primary slot receiver in a more concentrated Packers passing attack. Levitan ranks him at WR38 (ADP 110), noting Reed leads all WRs with at least 150 targets in fantasy points per target.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
PositiveBreakout24:09
Adam Levitan and Matthew Berry view Jonathan Brooks as a high-upside redraft pick who could steal the starting job from Chuba Hubbard. Despite coming off two ACL tears, Brooks is praised for his college receiving profile and efficiency, with Levitan noting he could carve out 15-17 touches per game as the lead of a committee.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
PositiveBreakout44:17
Matthew Berry is high on the Saints' offense and specifically highlights Jordan Tyson as a 'baller' who is poised for a big year within Kellen Moore's fast-paced scheme.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveValue20:15
Matthew Berry and Adam Levitan agree that Josh Downs is a steal at pick 100, noting he is a very good player in a strong role; Berry notes that while Downs might go earlier in sharper industry leagues, he is often available later in standard home leagues.
Insight pagePositiveValue28:48
Matthew Berry and Adam Levitan identify Josh Downs as a major value at his 104 ADP. With Michael Pittman absent and Alec Pierce dealing with an injury, Downs has historically earned targets at a 25% rate when Pittman is off the field. Levitan ranks him in the 80s, calling him a total steal.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeProjection17:21
Adam Levitan expresses concern about drafting Justin Jefferson at his 8-9 overall ADP due to the risk that the Vikings might pivot to J.J. McCarthy if they fall out of playoff contention, which would hurt Jefferson's fantasy playoff value. Levitan also prefers a running back-heavy approach at the top of drafts.
Insight pageJuwan Johnson
PositiveSleeper47:31
Matthew Berry and Adam Levitan identify Juwan Johnson as an interesting late-round tight end target because he will serve as the Saints' third pass-catcher in a high-pace, indoor-heavy offense.
Insight pageKeaton Mitchell
PositiveSleeper28:46
Adam Levitan views Keaton Mitchell as an athletic outlier and a high-upside bench stash. Despite his small size and injury history, Mitchell's 6.3 yards per carry and 9.7 yards per reception are elite. Levitan expects a weekly role of 5-9 touches, noting that he is a better fit for best ball than redraft due to his big-play volatility.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveValue7:27
Adam Levitan and Matthew Berry are both high on Kyler Murray, noting that Kevin O'Connell's system consistently produces top-10 fantasy quarterback production regardless of the starter. Levitan ranks Murray near pick 100, significantly ahead of his 126 consensus ADP, and views him as an ideal target for a late-round QB strategy.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveBreakout49:01
Adam Levitan identifies Malik Nabors as a top candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. If he had not been injured, he would have been a top-12 draft pick, and he has looked incredible in training camp.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
NegativeSleeper22:12
Adam Levitan and Matthew Berry view Matthew Golden as a late-round sleeper who will play significant snaps, though they express less enthusiasm for him compared to Jayden Reed. Golden struggled to earn targets last year, and Berry notes he only had two red-zone targets, making him dependent on big plays.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
PositiveProjection48:56
Adam Levitan believes Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year because voters love him and he is expected to play Week 1 despite his ACL injury.
Insight pageRomeo Doubs
NegativeDepth Chart27:37
Matthew Berry suggests Romeo Doubs might be slightly better in New England than he was in Green Bay because the Patriots' depth chart lacks a dominant WR1 after AJ Brown, potentially allowing Doubs to carve out a number-two role.
Insight pageTank Bigsby
PositiveSleeper35:45
Adam Levitan identifies Tank Bigsby as the best handcuff in the NFL, noting he is a natural runner who could see a standalone role of 4-7 carries per game. Levitan emphasizes that Bigsby is a perfect one-for-one replacement for Saquon Barkley in the Eagles' offense and is worth holding on a bench all season.
Insight pagePositiveUsage40:20
Adam Levitan and Matthew Berry agree that Tank Bigsby is a high-value handcuff worth holding all season. Bigsby averaged 5.9 yards per carry last year with 21% of his runs going for 10+ yards, and he would have a 'monster' fantasy projection if Saquon Barkley were to miss time.
Insight pageTravis Hunter
PositiveBreakout50:42
Matthew Berry suggests Travis Hunter as a dark-horse Comeback Player of the Year candidate, noting that if he successfully plays both sides of the ball and earns All-Pro votes, voters may feel compelled to reward his unique versatility.
Insight pageTrey Palmer
PositiveSleeper4:04
Matthew Berry reports a high-quality source indicates Trey Palmer is crushing it in Buccaneers camp. With the team lacking a pure X receiver, Palmer is a candidate to start at X if Jalen McMillan fails to secure the role, making Palmer a viable late-round consideration in rounds 18-19.
Insight pageXavier Worthy
PositiveValue34:04
Matthew Berry argues Xavier Worthy is significantly undervalued at his current ADP of 124. Berry notes that Worthy's route tree was intentionally limited last year due to a shoulder injury, but reports from camp indicate he is stronger and ready for a larger role. Berry suggests the market is over-correcting for last year's disappointment.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00It is noon on YouTube, but it is 5 o'clock somewhere, which means the Happy Hour Bar is open.
0:06What's up? I'm your bartender, Matthew Berry. Thank you so much once again for joining me.
0:10And today, I'm very excited to welcome a longtime friend of mine in the industry, one of the best guys I think
0:17out there, absolutely crushes it every single year, year in and year out, a fellow Roto World alum, my buddy Adam Levitan
0:24from EstablishTheRun.com, all the guys over there at ETR.
0:26You guys just do such a great job, Adam.
0:29And thank you so much for showing up. And I appreciate you wearing the hat so that people that are unfamiliar with
0:35what you look like now and only know you from your avatar are unaware of just how insanely old that picture is.
0:42Can you imagine changing your profile picture? You don't see Apple or AT&T or Ford change their logo.
0:47Why should Adam Levitan change his logo? Well, I think probably because those companies, while I appreciate that you put yourself in
0:54the same company as an Apple, I think probably because there's a timelessness, if you will, to those companies.
1:00Whereas Father Time, much like it has with me, has not been as kind to you.
1:04Yes. However, to take a picture now, I would have to go with the full, I guess, Berry haircut in which I'm
1:11going to go ahead and stick with my 2006 profile picture.
1:14It's fair enough. I mean, you know what? I feel like I should.
1:18So my profile picture is me. My profile picture on X is me and Jimmy Buffett, who, you know, is very meaningful to me.
1:25And I saw 45 shows before he passed and whatever, you know, I'm a crazy parrot head.
1:30But and I've been thinking like I should change it.
1:33Like so every other social media profile that I have, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook threads, whatever you name it.
1:39I'm at Matthew Berry, TMR on all of them.
1:41You are at Adam Levitan on all of them.
1:44But all of those avatars are me and my wife.
1:47Because about a year and a half ago, Adam, my then 12 year old daughter, she's now 14, but my then 12
1:53year old daughter was just like when she like finally got onto Instagram.
1:57And of course, immediately goes to see, you know, mine.
2:00And she goes, wait, why isn't your picture with mommy?
2:03Don't you love mommy? And so immediately, obviously, I had to change all of my profile pictures to prove I loved mommy.
2:10And but I haven't done on Twitter because, of course, my kids aren't on Twitter.
2:14They're not on X. But I have been reluctant to change it.
2:18I feel like I should just be consistent across platform, but I have been reluctant to change it somewhat as well.
2:24Aloha Brooke says pick one berry or the Paul Feinbaum haircut.
2:27Is it more of a berry or is it more of a fine bomb, you think?
2:32Ah, gosh. Well, I try to really like shave the sides all the way down so that it looks somewhat, somewhat even.
2:39You know what I mean? And like even like bald even, you know, not half even.
2:43Now, Amiles1924 says Abuka hurt in practice today. Ted Hurst to the moon.
2:47I have not seen that. I just, I was, I literally was doing my own makeup.
2:52I was getting here. I was going over the pre-show production with all the team here.
2:57Is this, okay. Jay Woogie says nothing serious for the Abuka just got rolled up on, stayed on the sideline, rest of practice.
3:04All right. So we can, we can breathe a sigh of release, a sigh of relief, not a sigh of release, which would be interesting.
3:11And that's a good name for an album. But Adam, it's appropriate that Ted Hurst gets brought up here because he's a,
3:18he's a late round sleeper that I like. He's not somebody we're going to talk about today, but I will tell you
3:24that I had a source, a very, I have a very good Buccaneer source who tells me Ted Hurst is absolutely crushing it in Buccaneers camp.
3:32Um, so they don't have a pure X receiver.
3:35I do not consider, uh, Jim McMillan a pure X, neither Agbuka, neither Godwin.
3:39And I think Agbuka's best role will be at Z.
3:42Obviously Godwin's best role is slot. I think they're going to try to start with McMillan at X.
3:47He had a little bit of a knee thing, which I think gave some people some hype on Hurst also.
3:53McMillan was back in individual drills yesterday. I think they're going to start him at X if he fails there.
3:59I think that's how Ted Hurst kind of gets his role because he is a natural X and they lost that with Mike Evans.
4:06So yeah, I mean, I think Ted Hurst in round 18, 19 is something that I'm willing to consider at least right now.
4:13Yeah, I think he's, again, uh, I do think there's this, look, I think it's going to, assuming health, it's going to be Godwin and Abuka.
4:21Abuka and Godwin are going to get the majority of the targets here.
4:25But I do think there's an opportunity that Hurst could bypass McMillan for that third wide receiver spot on the outside.
4:31So I agree with you there. Listen, before we get into our late round sleepers, Adam, I want to talk about this happened on last, last yesterday's show.
4:39It, um, it broke live and we talked about it a little bit, but, uh, the Vikings have named Kyler Murray their week one starter.
4:47So I wanted to do a little bit of a deeper dive here on this, a little bit of like, you know, no kidding.
4:54Right. I mean, I think we all expected this to happen.
4:57I think all of the ranks, all of the ranks that I have at fantasylife.com, I'm sure all the ones at ETR
5:04also reflect that, that you guys have, have all your projections have baked down the idea that Kyler was going to start all along.
5:11But it's nice to know it's official and that, that Kevin O'Connell is not going to play the games.
5:16Like we'll have to wait till week one, you know, that we see some of these coaches do.
5:22Where are you on Kyler this year? I've seen a lot of discourse like to the moon.
5:27He's with KOC. He's indoors. Justin Jefferson. I've also seen like, this guy hasn't been good for a while.
5:32As I'm painfully aware, cause he was my ride or die two years ago before he got hurt.
5:38So, or after he got, after he got hurt where I thought he was coming back before he got benched.
5:44Anyway, where are you on Kyler this year? So I think first it's a really good thing that they made this announcement.
5:50I was frankly annoyed because we have a pretty high position on Kyler Murray.
5:54I was annoyed that he was not getting all of the reps.
5:58He is new to the system. As you mentioned, he has not played well in a long time.
6:03He is new to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and KOC and the scheme.
6:08He should be getting every first team rep. So I was annoyed that they weren't doing that.
6:13So I'm glad to see that hopefully now they're going to go down that path.
6:17You do not have to be a great NFL quarterback to have fantasy success with the Vikings in this scheme.
6:23We saw Nick Mullins do it. We saw Sam Darnold do it.
6:27We saw Carson Wentz do it. We saw, I don't remember if Josh Dobbs was signed off the street.
6:32Come on, Josh Dobbs. The Pastronaut. The Pastronaut was signed like off the street.
6:36It goes in the system. He has like three days to prepare.
6:40He goes out and scores 20 fantasy points in this system.
6:43So I agree with the people who have a problem with Kyler as a player.
6:48I think that the way he runs and the way KOC schemes, you are going to get a payoff because there's a
6:54lot of people out there who think Kyler is just total dust.
6:58So if he goes around pick 120, I think we have him closer to pick 100.
7:03And for season long specifically, like I personally think late round quarterback is a really attractive strategy this year in redraft formats.
7:09And Kyler can certainly be part of that. Draft two quarterbacks, Kyler and Goff or Kyler and Love or Kyler and T-Lar,
7:16whatever you want and kind of play matchups there.
7:18I think Kyler is an interesting part of that.
7:21I could not agree more. We're in lockstep here.
7:24I'm at 102 overall. I'm at QB 14. So Consensus ADP is 126.
7:28So Consensus ADP. So we have a fantasylife.com. We have a tool that gives you the ADP of every single site.
7:34And so across the industry, and it also includes underdog there.
7:37So you've got some best ball in there and it includes FFPC.
7:41So you've got some high stakes in there and NFFC.
7:44So you've got the high stakes guys. You've got like underdog, RT sports.
7:48You've got some best ball stuff in there. And then, of course, you've got the season longs, the ESPNs, the Yahoo's, the CBS's of the world.
7:55But his Consensus ADP across the industry is 126.
7:58I am at 102. I'm at QB 14. He's at QB 17 in the overall consensus as well.
8:03Look, in every season he's played at least eight games, Adam.
8:07He's finished as a top 12 fantasy quarterback on a points-per-game basis.
8:10And just to give you a different stat that says what you did about whether it's Nick Mullins or Josh Dobbs or
8:17Carson Wentz or literally anybody that has played quarterback for Kevin O'Connell not named J.J.
8:21McCarthy, the Vikings have been top 10 in fantasy quarterbacks on a point-per-game basis in three of KOC's four seasons as a
8:28head coach and play caller in Minnesota. And I think, you know, adding Juwan Jennings to this roster along with Addison and
8:34Jefferson, I think Hawkinson another year removed from the injury, I think it's going to be a pretty good offensive line.
8:41I think it's a pretty good run game that'll be balanced.
8:44So, and, you know, I like the fact that he gets to play indoors on turf.
8:49Hopefully they move him around a little bit more.
8:51They move him. But I know that going out to the Combine, when I was at the Combine, I do my annual
8:58column, my 35 most interesting rumors I hear at the Combine.
9:01And you and Evan, by the way, I have to say, you know, I love the big dog Evan Silva, one of the goats of our industry.
9:09But you and Evan are always so incredibly kind, specifically about that column every single year.
9:14So I have to say thank you for the love.
9:17You guys always show that column. But what I was going to say is just at the Combine, the talk that I
9:23heard and it's in that column was that they absolutely were not coming back to J.J.
9:28McCarty and Kyler was somebody that they had sort of circled as a guy that he thought would be available and that they were interested in.
9:36Yeah. The reason that I love that column so much is because I actually leave rumors.
9:41Like, I want to know. I want to know all the information and then I will distill it to what I think is real and what is not.
9:49That stuff is so valuable, especially in today's age where there's so much more information.
9:53After like when I first started doing this for Roto World, no one was reading anything.
9:58Like, I would read something and no one would talk about it for days.
10:02You know, now as soon as any tweet goes out or any article goes out, everybody sees it.
10:08The more valuable information now to me is like the rumors.
10:11So, yeah, anything that people like Matthew Berry hears, I want to know so I can distill it.
10:16So, yeah, I love that. And I'm not surprised that they targeted Kyler.
10:20I mean, J.J. M. was just the worst, one of the worst quarterback seasons you can possibly have as an NFL quarterback last year.
10:27It was pretty tough. Hey, before we move off of the subject real quickly, I just want to know, obviously you're high on Kyler, as am I.
10:35So, I think, are you on the belief as well that you guys, that this translates to Justin Jefferson?
10:41Because I've heard some of the talk of like, well, he wasn't able to get the ball to Marvin Harrison.
10:47Although, candidly, neither really was Jacoby Brissett. It's been a spotted NFL career so far for Marvin Harrison.
10:52And I don't know if we can blame that entirely on Kyler or how much it was that scheme, where they've obviously
10:59changed the offensive system in Arizona now. Or, and, you know, respectfully, Marvin Harrison is not Justin Jefferson at this stage of his career.
11:06Okay, yeah, this is tough because I think Justin Jefferson remains one of, if not the best wide receivers in the NFL.
11:13One of the concerns that I have with Justin Jefferson at eight or nine overall, well, there's multiple.
11:18The first one would be, I think we have seen that if Kyler Murray does not play well, they will get another look at J.J.
11:25McCarthy. So, let's say the Vikings are out of the playoffs.
11:29It's week 14. Yeah. And then they go, oh, we have nothing invested in Kyler.
11:33We're paying him a million dollars. We have a first round pick invested in J.J.
11:38We're out of the playoffs. Let's see if J.J.
11:40can play. In the fantasy playoffs, that would be a disaster for Justin Jefferson.
11:44I think Kyler is going to play well. I think they're going to make the playoffs.
11:49But the betting market isn't even on that. You know, like Vikings are plus money to make the playoffs.
11:55Okay, the second concern that I have with taking Justin Jefferson eight or nine overall is structural reasons.
12:00I want to be running back heavy at the top of drafts typically this year.
12:05And if you take Justin Jefferson, you're just like immediately going to fall behind at running back, which is okay in best ball and some other formats.
12:13I think if I'm playing in a 12-team home league with my friends, I think when it's close, and I think it's
12:19close between Jefferson and J.T., close between Jefferson and Kenneth Walker, when it's close like that, I'm going to lean running back personally there this year.
12:27I'm at 10 overall, my wide receiver five. I'm more in on a bounce back.
12:32I think even if they don't make the playoffs, I think they'll be competitive for the playoffs.
12:37So I think it's barring injury, I think Kyler is their starter for the year because I think they'll still be playing for a playoff spot.
12:44All right, so let's move on to late-round sleepers.
12:47And look, it's tough in this industry, especially when you play as in many different formats as you and I do, Adam.
12:54And what's a late-round sleeper in a 10-team or 12-team home league is not a sleeper in, you know, I'm in a
13:0012-team, 33-man dynasty league, right, where we were arguing over whether Drew Owler is going to go in the third round.
13:06So I mean, like it's always hard to quantify what a late-round sleeper is.
13:11But for the purposes of this, we're kind of going with 12-team home league types, anyone that's going after pick 100 on
13:17the major sites, on ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, sleeper, you name it.
13:20So kind of past pick 100, past the 10th round on kind of the main redraft sites.
13:25That's how we're defining this so far. And I want to start with you because you think there's some opportunity in Green Bay.
13:32Yeah, I'm surprised these guys are going so late.
13:35And I'm referring to Jaden Reed and Matthew Golden both.
13:38I mean, the Packers have consistently used five wide receivers in a rotation historically.
13:42So that has led to really flat route shares and target shares.
13:46What I thought was really interesting was they said publicly after the season, they thought that was a mistake, that rotating this many wide receivers was a mistake.
13:54And they followed through on that talk by getting rid of Romeo Dobbs and Dontavia Wicks.
13:59So for the first time in recent memory, I am expecting a really tight route tree and a tight route concentration and
14:05target concentration around Christian Watson, Matthew Golden on the outside and Jaden Reed in the slot.
14:10And on top of that, I think they can be more pass heavy this season.
14:14Josh Jacobs coming off that PCL injury could be suspended still.
14:18We don't know. So this should be the season to put the ball in Jordan Love's hands more.
14:23And those receivers, I think, are really good talents and will be out there a ton.
14:28So I take a lot of both Jaden Reed and Matthew Golden.
14:31I prefer Reed to Golden. Since he entered the NFL, Jaden Reed leads all wide receivers, literally all wide receivers in fantasy
14:38points per target, minimum of 150 targets. Like, I always believe, you know, and it's raised the flags, ask, is there a
14:45chance Reed will be wide receiver one over Christian Watson?
14:48I think there's a chance. I don't think it's a great chance.
14:51I have Watson ranked highest. I think Watson could be really special this year.
14:55But Jaden Reed can play. And you watch those Packers games.
14:59And Adam, you and I are on the same page on this one as well.
15:03So it's like, why can't we get Jaden Reed more of the ball?
15:07Why are we messing around with all these other guys?
15:10And so finally, he's going to be the slot guy.
15:13I think they'll find creative ways they have previously of, you know, doing, you know, doing end arounds, doing quick bubble screams,
15:19just different ways to try to get the ball in his hand, manufactured touches for him.
15:24Golden, I'm a little less enthusiastic about. So I have Reed at wide receiver 38.
15:29He's going as wide receiver 47. So I'm above consensus on him as well.
15:33I'm at 83 overall. ADP is 110. So significantly ahead of the market on Jaden Reed.
15:38I am as well. Golden, I'm more in line with the market, right?
15:41I am at 116. He's 121 overall. Look, we all saw the playoff game.
15:46That's great. But regardless of whether Josh Jacobs is playing or it's Marshawn Lloyd or whatever, the fact is, I still think
15:52that LeFleur wants to be more run heavy than not.
15:55You've still got, you've got Watson and Reed, who we like a lot.
15:59Tucker Craft is back, who I think is a top five tight end.
16:03So it's just how many balls are there to go around.
16:06And so Golden needs those big plays to, to, to pay off.
16:10Like this is a guy who had two red zone targets last year, literally two.
16:14So he's going to be on the field a lot more.
16:17So I get the upside on Golden. I'm just not as, give me Reed over Golden, I guess, but whatever.
16:23In the, in the 13th round, why not on Matthew Golden, who was a first round draft pick?
16:29Yeah. And Matthew Golden did not do a good job of earning targets last year, which is what you're referring to.
16:35And that to me is a skill, you know, can you earn targets at the NFL level?
16:40Packers fans will tell you that he was hurt last year.
16:43They were rotating him too much. And that's why he did not earn targets at a high enough rate.
16:49There's certainly more risk in Golden. And I agree with you.
16:52Reed over Golden here for me, even though I do think Golden will play more raw snaps.
16:57Dan wants to know what about former Green Bay wide receiver Romeo Dobbs, better or worse now that he's in New England.
17:04I'd say better just because after AJ Brown, there's no one there that's scary.
17:08I mean, I know we're Keishon Booty's having a really good camp and you've got Pop Douglas there, but there's a chance
17:15that Dobbs could carve out the number two role there.
17:18So, which I don't think was ever going to happen in Green Bay.
17:21I'm not excited about Dobbs candidly at either place, but just answer your question, Dan, Dan, that's what I would say.
17:28My first guy as a late round sleeper, I'm going to go with Josh Downs, who I think was going to start it out as a trendy sleeper.
17:36And then I think everyone's just sort of, I don't know, he's, he's gotten snoozy or whatever, or just people are out on the Colts, you know?
17:44But again, like Pierce is currently on PUP. He hasn't practiced since undergoing that ankle surgery.
17:49Obviously no Michael Pittman. And in games on routes in which Michael Pitt was not on the field, Josh Downs for his
17:55career, when, when Michael Pittman was not on the field, Josh Downs was targeted on over 25% of his routes.
18:01As we talk about, again, I said this yesterday on the show, you just mentioned it in terms of targets are earned.
18:08And so Josh Downs, like you think about who's, so we've got Alec Pierce, of course, and we all love Tyler Warren,
18:14but behind Josh Downs, we're looking at Ashton Doolin, Anthony Gould, friend of fantasy, Nick Westbrook-Akini, the touchdown machine.
18:20Like there's not a lot of depth there. And so Josh Downs, who's currently going at 104, his wide receiver 43, is
18:27entirely possible to be the number one pass catcher on what we think is going to be a pretty good offense.
18:33Like we like Alex Pierce, but even, I don't think Pierce is going to get a massive target share.
18:38Like hopefully they expand his route tree where he's not just getting the deep targets that started to happen a little bit last year, Adam.
18:46But I think Exhausted Texans saying the hype, the hype on Josh Downs is getting exhausting.
18:51I disagree. It feels like Downs was hyped early in the preseason, kind of early in best ball season, but I don't
18:57feel like it's been nearly as much recently. And so his ADP hasn't moved that much.
19:02Again, he's still outside the top 100. So yeah, give me some Josh Downs who I have at 82 overall.
19:08Again, two rounds ahead of consensus. Yeah. If this is the right ADP on Josh Downs, that's an absolute smash.
19:14I mean, just a total steal. I agree that we have him in the 80s also.
19:19You know, obviously you see how it works for Josh Downs.
19:22There's very little target competition there. Daniel Jones coming off of the Achilles.
19:26He might have to check down a little bit more.
19:29Everybody loves Josh Downs. Tape bros, analytics bros. They're talking about having him more in two wider seats.
19:34Frat bros. I'm sure if you go to any fraternity, all the bros.
19:38Yeah. Everybody loves Josh Downs. My concern is at 5'9", 171, how many targets can he take on?
19:43You know, and so we have seen... Aren't you like 5'9", 171, Adam?
19:47That's not a good sign. Yeah, that's not a good sign.
19:51Yeah. Just want to make sure. So you know what you're talking about is what you're saying.
19:56Yeah, okay, fair enough. And I do think the Colts are the most likely team to add a wide receiver at some point before week one.
20:03You know, it used to be the Commanders. It was so obvious they were going to add one.
20:09And now I think the Colts, they have to.
20:11I mean, as long as this Pierce thing lingers, they have no one.
20:15So Keenan Allen, whatever else is out there that gets cut, they're going to add someone.
20:20So I don't want to overstate Downs' role, but he is a very, very good player who will be in a very good role.
20:27And pick 100 is just an absolute steal. Yeah.
20:30Loja Bricks wants to know Downs or Jaden Higgins.
20:32Downs for me. Yes. Agreed. Yeah. Yeah. And just we'll move on.
20:36We'll move on here in one second. The only other thing I'll say there is he probably goes a little bit earlier
20:43when you mentioned ADP, probably goes a little bit earlier in sharper leagues, more industry leagues.
20:47But I do think there is a lot of, as you watch analysis from people like myself and Adam and everyone else
20:54in the industry, and there's so many people out there doing great work.
20:58But the truth is there is a little bit of a groupthink that happens.
21:02And Adam, for lack of a better phrase, there's a bit of a snobbery.
21:06Like, I feel like that people that give fantasy analysis honestly don't play in normal home leagues and just like, you know,
21:13oh, Josh Downs, but there's no way that guy ever goes outside the seventh round.
21:17I'm like, walk into a normal, quote unquote, like just 10 guys in the neighborhood getting together for a draft, and he absolutely goes there.
21:25I don't think people, there's too much kind of snobbery or elitism or like, you know, the people that do 150 best
21:31ball drafts by June 1st is a very, very small section of the millions of people that play fantasy football.
21:37And I think, I think too many analysts forget that.
21:40Yes. And I think people also forget with Matthew specifically, like the audience that Matthew is speaking to is way different than
21:47the audience that I am speaking to, right? Like Matthew is like on NBC talking to millions of people who are playing fantasy.
21:53I'm talking mostly to the people that Matthew is describing who have done 150 best ball drafts before June 1, you know?
22:00So yeah, for any people out there, like knowing your audience, I think is important also.
22:05Yeah. Okay. Hey, it's time for Coke Heads to Unite.
22:08Happy hour fans know this. Coke Heads Unite, the big playoff game last year.
22:12Amazing. It was finally the, the breakup for Jalen Coker that we were all hoping for.
22:17And you have him as a late run sleeper.
22:19Yeah. I mean, he goes really late. I think for a guy who definitely can play and is seeing a roll bump.
22:26I mean, absolutely no doubt every down wide receiver opposite.
22:29Yep. Ted Rory McMillan this year, they Panthers confirmed that by playing Coker ahead of Leggett last year, then confirmed it again
22:35with a new three or $35 million contract in the off season per target stuff on Coker is really good.
22:41Per route stuff is really good. The problem and why he's not going higher is just Bryce Young.
22:47Bryce Young goes into these ruts where they try to hide him.
22:50They go very run heavy. And I simply just don't think Bryce Young is very good, period.
22:55And that's what's holding Coker back. But if you think that Bryce can have something of a leap, something of a step
23:02forward, Coker's going to beat this ADP and, you know, on your bench, it gets to the bye weeks.
23:08You have some injuries. You have to start Jalen Coker.
23:11There will be much worse guys that you could start than Jalen Coker.
23:14So as it starts to get this deep, you know, it's harder at wide receiver.
23:19I think there's other positions where it might be easier.
23:22Coker is a rare every down player who I think can play available in the 130s.
23:27For his career, 9.8 yards per target. Seventh best among wide receivers that have at least 75 targets for the last two years.
23:33You know, injuries to the position. They might actually have to start Leggett now in three wide receiver sets.
23:39But to your point, it's going to be McMillan.
23:42It's going to be Jalen Coker. So Cokeheads Unite, this is our year.
23:46I have him at 129 overall. His consensus ADP is 137.
23:49So I'm ahead of the consensus. I'm right there with you on Jalen Coker.
23:53I'm actually going to stay in Carolina. Surprisingly, we've got two Panthers here.
23:57But, you know, as Aloha, Brooke says Jalen Coker or Jalen Noel this year.
24:01Coker for me. Not even close. I'm not even sure what Jalen Noel's role is going to be.
24:06Yeah. No, I don't think the Texans are either.
24:09But I'm going with Jonathan Brooks here, which is another one similar to Josh Downs, who's kind of a trendy sleeper.
24:15I'm cheating a little bit. His ADP is 102.
24:18So he's right there on the cusp. But I haven't had a chance to talk about Brooks so far this season.
24:24So I kind of wanted to sneak him in here as well.
24:28Like, the fact is, is like Chuba Hubbard and listen, I have Chuba Hubbard in a bunch of dynasty leagues.
24:34So I hope I'm wrong on this, but I don't think I'm going to be, which is that Jonathan Brooks has a
24:40chance to win for a running back going in the 10th round or later.
24:45Jonathan Brooks is one of the few guys that has a legit chance to be the starting running back without injury.
24:51Chuba Hubbard lost his job to Rico Dowdle last year.
24:54All the efficiency metrics are very poor on Hubbard.
24:56You know, explosive run rate, yards after contact per attempt, broken tackle, like a percentage, like pick a stat.
25:02And Hubbard was bad in pretty much all of them.
25:05And so you've got a guy who was, you know, the first running back selected in 2024.
25:10I know he's coming off the two ACLs. We haven't seen him on an NFL field.
25:15But if you go back to the college tape and you think about the opportunity and you think about this offense under
25:21Dave Canales that got multiple 200 yard games out of Rico Dowdle last year, like if Jonathan Brooks shows any sort of
25:28a flash and all the reports out of camp Adam are that he is, he's got a chance to be the, I don't think Hubbard's going away.
25:36Like they paid him too much money. They like multiple backs, but Brooks could easily carve out, you know, 15 to 17
25:43touches a game as the lead of a committee on a decent offense in Carolina.
25:47Uh, I think a better pick in redraft than best ball.
25:50If the knee never returns to form in redraft, you burned a 10th round pick, you know, what's the big deal in best ball?
25:57He's going to be going to eighties lately. And like, if he does not return to form, that is a lot of
26:04draft capital to burn on a Panthers running back off of two ACL tears.
26:08So I think he's a very fine pick, uh, in redraft agree with you.
26:12Chuba Hubbard is just a guy. And I think the most important part of Brooks's college profile was the receiving stuff.
26:19He profiled to come into the NFL and be a good receiving back.
26:22Chuba Hubbard has not been that. And so at a minimum, I think Brooks should go ahead and get that role.
26:29There's been so much optimism out of Carolina. Like he practiced all of OTAs, all of mini camp season looks good in training camp.
26:36So I'm skeptical on the injury stuff, but right now all the signs look good.
26:40Yeah. So anyway, and to your point, I agree with your analysis, by the way, that it's a much better redraft pick
26:47than he is a best ball, uh, kind of guy, especially in the eighth round in terms of where he's going.
26:53And that's what I mean about sort of knowing your audience, right?
26:57Because there is an audience of drafters that want to be seen as, as sharp.
27:01And so they'll, they'll, they'll actually overdraft a player just to be like, see, I was in on that guy.
27:07You know, and there's just a little bit of sometimes over correction.
27:11I think there, uh, Wolf John says Brooks marks or Monungay better chance to take over.
27:15I'll say Kyle. I was going to say Jonathan Brooks, but I really like common guy this year.
27:21Yeah. I think it's Brooks easily. I actually think Deandre Swift is, is a really good player.
27:26And Deandre Swift is not going to lose the job unless, uh, he gets hurt.
27:30Whereas I agree with your first take about Chuba Hubbard.
27:33Like Brooks could certainly steal that job, but yeah, it really depends what you think about Swift.
27:38Yeah. I like Swift too. I was going to say I would rank those in terms of most likely to steal the number one job.
27:46I would rank them Brooks Monungay marks. Yes. I think same Deandre Swift is similar to David Montgomery this year.
27:52No one's excited about Dave Montgomery. He's snoozy. He's boring.
27:55You're in your draft and you take him. No, one's going to be like, Ooh, good pick or like, Oh man, you sniped me.
28:02Like you're not going to get that when you take Dave Montgomery.
28:05People just be like, okay, whatever. And, but then you're going to look up at the end of the year and he's
28:12going to have 1200 yards and like eight touchdowns.
28:15Like he's just, he's going to be the lead running back of a pretty good offense and it's not going to be
28:21pretty or efficient, but it will get you fantasy points.
28:24Yeah. Dave Montgomery is going to touch the ball 300 times barring injury for sure.
28:29Yeah. Not efficient, but he will do there. He will, he'll get there.
28:33All right. Um, uh, listen, we were talking about, uh, Josh Downs.
28:36We were talking about, uh, you. So we're talking about size, not necessarily the biggest people in the NFL.
28:42I don't know if I'm sensing a theme here, but Keaton Mitchell is on your list.
28:47Adam, let's talk about Keaton Mitchell. It's, it's the small show.
28:50Yes. I want to put outliers, athletic outliers, football outliers on my team and see what happens.
28:55And I definitely think we can consider Keaton Mitchell an outlier.
28:58I mean, if you just watch this guy, he is absolutely shot out of a cannon.
29:03Every time he touches the ball, no one's been able to tackle him in the NFL.
29:08He's only had 121 career carries due to some injuries.
29:116.3 yards per carry is outrageous. 9.7 yards per reception is outrageous.
29:14Now he's very small. As Matthew mentioned, I don't think he's going to be a workhorse at any point, but he's going
29:21to have, I think his own weekly role, like five to nine touches.
29:25Maybe that's enough to start for your team if you're in a deep enough league, but either way, I just want to
29:31put them on my team and see what happens.
29:34And like, we've seen this with Mike McDaniel before, turn a small explosive fast back.
29:38Keaton Mitchell is the same size as divine H and turn that into a monster.
29:43So I don't think that Keaton Mitchell is going to, you know, take over for Amaran Hampton, but your own weekly carved
29:49out role, a little bit of handcuff appeal and just a freak athlete.
29:53I want to put those kinds of guys on my bench.
29:56What's the best, um, Aloha, Brooks, asking if you draft Hampton, you need Mitchell as a handcuff.
30:02I'm not sure. I'm not convinced on that in a world where Hampton goes down.
30:06I actually think, cause I don't think they'll, he still wouldn't get that role cause they need pass protection.
30:12So I think Kamani Vidal, I think it would be a split backfield between Vidal and Mitchell with Mitchell being the fantasy
30:18asset you wanted, but I don't think he would suddenly, I don't think he's a pure handcuff in the way that we normally use it.
30:26You know, the way that, um, the way that whatever, you know, Brian Robinson, if Bijan goes down or whatever, right.
30:32Yeah. Where you would feel like that guy would get the majority of work.
30:36Um, but what do you think the best case in a world where Omar and Hampton stays healthy all season?
30:42What's the best case scenario for Keaton Mitchell this year?
30:45Is it, is it Kenneth Gainwell last year? Like, where's the, you know, give me a, give me like a best case scenario for Keaton Mitchell.
30:53Cause I agree with you on the talent. And Mike McDaniel was actively like, this is the guy I want pounding the table.
31:00Go get me Keaton Mitchell to Jorty's their general manager.
31:03And of course that's what ended up happening. So clearly there's a scheme fit and a desire by McDaniel to use him.
31:09Yeah. I like Amarian Hampton. I'm not convinced he's like some superstar that needs 25 touches a game.
31:14And so I think if they don't want to give Kamani Vidal touches, unless Amarian Hampton gets hurt and you have two
31:21man backfield instead of three and Keaton Mitchell plays well enough and he can get eight to 10 touches per game.
31:27That's somewhere in the Gainwell range, probably a little bit lower than what Gainwell was at last year.
31:33But yeah, you're betting on efficiency and like on these outlier guys, it's hard.
31:37It's not comfortable. I'd rather bet on David Montgomery to just churn out on 300 touches.
31:42But that's why Keaton Mitchell goes around pick 140 and David Montgomery goes around pick 50, you know?
31:47So that just is what it is. But yeah, I agree with you.
31:51Like anything more than 10 to 12 touches a game for Keaton would, would surprise me.
31:56Phil OB25 says, I get the hype and I'm fitting McDaniel system, but I feel like this is more of a best ball play.
32:03Do you have more Mitchell in best ball than you do in redraft Adam?
32:07For people that don't know, Adam is in my mind, one of the elite best ball minds in our industry does a great job specifically in that format.
32:15You do it across the, across the industry. I think you're really good on props as well, but I know best ball
32:22is one of the focuses that you do quite a, in my opinion, very well.
32:26Yes. Well, when you're addicted to drafting, you have to start drafting right after the Superbowl.
32:31And so yes, best ball allows me to do so.
32:34I think what, what he's referring to, I think is that you don't know when Keaton Mitchell is going to take one carry for a 60 yard touchdown.
32:42And so in redraft, it's really hard to put him in your lineup.
32:46If he's only going to get seven touches, this probably won't be the week he gets the 60 yard touchdown for, so
32:53from that sense, yeah, I get it. I think he's a fine pick in both like on your bench and just see what happens.
33:00We do not know exactly what Mike McDaniel's plan is for this backfield.
33:04Maybe his plan is legit 10 touches a week for Keaton Mitchell.
33:07You could start that if you're in a deep enough league, you know, 12 teams with maybe 10 starters or something, you
33:14could start Keaton Mitchell if he's getting 10 touches a game.
33:17So I think putting him on your bench is such low risk when he goes in round 11, 12, 13.
33:23He's also one of those guys that he will at, you know, whether, and maybe it's in the first couple of weeks,
33:30he will have some sort of crazy highlight, 60 yards, 65 juke four guys, highlight that gets shown all over social media, sports center, everything.
33:37And like, you'll be able, if there's a guy in your league, if there's a person in your league that like loves
33:44those hype guys that are like, he'll be an instant, like kind of sell high guy too.
33:49But I'm with you on Mitchell. Certainly a freak athlete, like the talent, have him in a lot of dynasty leagues.
33:55So hope springs eternal on him, on McDaniel unlocking what we all know is there with Keaton Mitchell.
34:00Speaking of small but fast and explosive freak athletes, how about Xavier Worthy?
34:04For me, currently going at 124. This is a guy that last year, Adam, was going like in the third, fourth round.
34:11People were drafting this guy as a top 15 wide receiver last year.
34:15And last year, obviously a lost year, he gets, you know, friendly fire with Travis Kelsey.
34:19The shoulder hurts. He's never the same. And we had Dan Graziano on last week, who is a great NFL insider and hardcore fantasy player.
34:27So he really understands what we're looking for. He was at Chiefs camp.
34:31He's well-versed on that team. It's a team that he covers.
34:34And he talked to me about the fact that the team last year intentionally limited Xavier Worthy's route tree, right?
34:40Because of the injury, they wanted to protect his shoulder.
34:43So, uh, shoulder, excuse me. And that Dan said on the show how Andy Reid told him Xavier Worthy had a great offseason, looks noticeably stronger.
34:51And when Dan was at camp, like, he was just like, look, Rasheed Rice wasn't even doing like seven on seven.
34:57They were just doing like seven on sevens with Rasheed Rice.
35:00Like, he's not all the way back. Travis Kelsey's 37.
35:03Xavier Worthy is somebody that has significant draft capital.
35:06That, you know, that Taylor Swift famously ran down the hall screaming, we got Xavier Worthy.
35:10We got Xavier Worthy. And so I just feel like a year later, because last year was such a disappointment, that people are just like, whatever, Xavier Worthy.
35:19Whereas, like, that discount's baked in. I mean, he's going as wide receiver 50 in ADP, a guy that we had as
35:25a, you know, as a top 40 player last year.
35:28Like, the talent's still there. The system is still there.
35:31And you could argue the opportunity maybe is even, is as good, if not better.
35:36I know Rice was suspended for six games last year.
35:39But again, given his injury, given off-field concerns with Rice, another year older of Kelsey.
35:43Give me some Xavier Worthy this year. Yeah. I think the best case for Xavier Worthy is the Chiefs realize that running
35:50their offense through Rasheed Rice has not led to efficient offense.
35:53This offense has not been good throwing three-yard drag routes to Rasheed Rice 12, 13 times a game.
35:58Rasheed Rice also has the knee thing, like Matthew mentioned.
36:01And so I think they should try to be more explosive and get the ball downfield.
36:06The way defenses have played the Chiefs is do not allow that.
36:10And that's been bad for Xavier Worthy. He's running vertical routes.
36:13They played this too high stuff against Mahomes. That's why I really like Kenneth Walker this year.
36:18If they're going to continue to do that, Kenneth Walker is going to go absolutely nuts.
36:23But yeah, this is obviously way too cheap for Xavier Worthy.
36:26I mean, they need to add a wide receiver also.
36:29I mentioned the Colts. I know that the Chiefs poked around on Steph Diggs.
36:33He chose to go to Washington. They should be adding weaponry also.
36:37I mean, they need help badly. But yeah, I'd love to see them feature Worthy more.
36:42I still don't know how good he actually is at football, but it's not very expensive to find out this year for sure.
36:48Brooks and Flannels asks, sleeping the enemy back as the OC going right?
36:52Do you think he's going to reignite the Kansas City offense?
36:56I think Dan BDM also said something like that.
36:58Do you think Eric Biannimi coming back to call the plays, or maybe not call the plays because Andy always does, but
37:05to be the offensive coordinator of the Chiefs, does that help reignite this offense?
37:09I will tell you, because I know people that have coached with and under Eric Biannimi, he is a in-your-face kind of guy.
37:16He is a no BS, like, you know, you are going to perform.
37:20And so maybe there was a little bit of lackadaisical nature for Kansas City once he left.
37:25And, you know, he's coming back to bring that fire.
37:28Have you guys, I'm curious how that's affected your ranks and projections.
37:31I mean, no matter what you think about the enemy, getting rid of Matt Nagy is a plus.
37:37You know, I try not to be mean to guys, but gosh, I think Matt Nagy is just such a mess.
37:43And it does give me some pause on Giants guys.
37:46And I really like Giants guys this year, but the Nagy stuff gives me pause.
37:50I think removing Nagy is certainly a benefit. And yeah, they've had great run games.
37:55I think, like, combining getting an actual good running back again with the enemy coming back is just more good for Walker.
38:01And yeah, the offense as a whole, I mean, if Walker starts shredding, that's going to be good for Worthy also.
38:08The safeties will have to get closer in the box.
38:11Yeah, Stuntman Chuck saying the Pinot definitely kicking in for Barry.
38:14This is true. My audience knows, Adam, that for whatever reason, Pinot Grigio is what messes me up.
38:19Like, I'm impervious to beer. I swear to God, I can drink a six-pack of beer and it doesn't affect me at all.
38:26But I have, like, two glasses of Pinot Grigio and I am hammered.
38:30Wow. What is your drink? What is your drink of choice?
38:33Yeah, I drink red wine with my wife a lot of nights.
38:37And yeah, if I'm going out, I usually drink some more whiskey stuff.
38:41But yeah, I'm not a big drinker in general.
38:43But yeah, for sure. Let's put it this way.
38:46If I drink six beers, I'd be absolutely hammered.
38:49Like you just said, your six beers is fine.
38:51I'd be absolutely hammered for six beers. No, I don't know why it is, but beer does not do anything for me.
38:58But Pinot Grigio, Pinot Matty. Anyway, has me rolling around.
39:01Okay. So last two for us here. And your final guy is Tank Bigsby.
39:05Talk to me about why you're in on Bigsby beyond just the if something happens to Saquon.
39:10Or is it simply that? So Saquon is 29 years old and he has over 2,000 touches in his career.
39:16The yards per carry last year, I thought was at least somewhat to blame on offensive line play and the Kevin Petulo scheme.
39:23But it still was really, really scary. Tank Bigsby is a very good natural runner.
39:27You know, he doesn't really play in the pass game.
39:30He's a very, very good natural runner. It would not shock me if there is a small standalone role this year for Tank Bigsby.
39:37Give Saquon a break for four, six, seven carries per game.
39:41So depending on how deep your league is in, maybe you could use that.
39:45But more importantly is what Matthew mentioned. This is the best handcuff in the entire NFL, in my opinion.
39:51And it's so much better in redraft than best ball.
39:54You just leave Tank Bigsby on your bench. You're not taking zeros.
39:57He is a perfect one for one for this Eagles offense to Saquon between the tackles running.
40:02I actually think he has, you know, more power.
40:05Obviously less burst. Big play ability. And so like these handcuff running backs is how you build super teams.
40:10You know, put a few of them on your bench.
40:13And then if you get one Tank Bigsby or if you get one Brian Robinson or whatever you like as the best
40:20handcuffs, Woody Marks, whatever, you could have a real super team that way.
40:24We would have a monster projection. I mean, monster projection in most spots on Tank Bigsby if Saquon went down.
40:30And I think he's the kind of guy that's actually worth carrying all year.
40:34Like there's not that many handcuffs that you want to carry on your bench all year.
40:39You want to be churning. I think Bigsby is when you actually want to carry on your bench all year.
40:45That's a great point. I'm glad you brought that up.
40:48By the way, for what it's worth, Bigsby averaged 5.9 yards per carry last year in Philadelphia.
40:5321% of his runs last year went for 10 or more yards.
40:56I mean, like so yes, a full-time role for Tank Bigsby in Philadelphia would be fantasy goodness.
41:01And I was actually going to get into sort of theory there because you hear so much in the pre-draft process of like for fantasy.
41:09Oh, grab this guy. He's a good handcuff. He can handcuff.
41:12And so, you know, when you're in whatever, round 14 or even round 17, which is where Bigsby's going, that makes sense, right?
41:19Sure, especially if you drafted Barkley, I'll grab Tank Bigsby.
41:22But, you know, then it's week four, week five.
41:25Buy weeks are starting to happen. You've got a couple of other injuries.
41:28You're looking at that waiver wire like, where am I going to find room on my roster?
41:34Barkley's been crushing. Like, how do you find the discipline to say like, no, no, no.
41:38I'm sticking with Tank. I know he's been at zero for five weeks now and Barkley looks great, but I'm not dropping
41:45him because what ends up inevitably happening is you drop him in week five.
41:49And then Barkley goes down in week eight and you've got to spend all your fab or, you know, try to desperately
41:56trade to get Bigsby or somebody's already picked him up and you're like, oh, I had him.
42:01Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, there's not guys like I think Brian Robinson would fare okay if Bichon went down, but not great.
42:07You know, the difference is I think it's the first name I think came to me on that one.
42:13I agree with you. It's not necessarily the best example.
42:16Right. But my point is that there's not that many handcuffs that would fare as well or any I think that would fare as well as Bigsby.
42:24Like if Gibbs went down, Pacheco can't do Gibbs like stuff.
42:27He's not going to he's we're not going to have that great of a projection on Pacheco.
42:32It's totally different. But on Bigsby, we would. Yeah.
42:35No, I mean, I think that's I think that's I think that's I think that's right.
42:40And he's one of the things one of the things I talk about all the time.
42:45And I put this in my draft day manifesto.
42:47It's up for free on fantasy life dot com is that so many people make the mistake of thinking that we play
42:54a season long game and we don't. We don't.
42:57Fantasy football is a weekly game that's played over the course of a season.
43:01Right. And that whether it is, you know, Tank Bigsby for two weeks or whatever, you know, Chris Rodriguez for a couple of weeks.
43:08Right. There's going to be those guys that, you know, are startable here and there, you know, for three weeks here.
43:14And Kamani Vidal. Right. So like what are four weeks last season when Amari and Hampton was out and you know, Vidal was the guy.
43:22Vidal was like a borderline RB1. So the important thing is not just, you know, having those guys that pop those guys
43:28at the end of the bench that pop. But knowing when to start them, because it's one of the things to say
43:35to look back after this year and say like, oh, wow.
43:38You know, there was four different games where Keaton Mitchell had 20 fantasy points.
43:42But knowing when those are coming is the key.
43:45Right. Because we know they're going to happen. We just don't know what weeks.
43:49But in a world where Barkley goes down, you know, OK, I'm starting Tank Bigsby.
43:53And so finding those players that not only would in the right situation have big production, but knowing that you'll know when
44:00to start them, I think, is the is the bigger key as well.
44:04So I think that's that's good advice. Last one for me here, Adam, I don't know where you guys at ETR are
44:10on the Saints this year, but I'm high on the Saints offense.
44:14I'm a Kellen Moore believer. I love Jordan Tyson.
44:17I'm in Onolabe having a big year. Kellen Moore is one of my favorites for coach of the year.
44:22I think they're a pretty good bet to win the NFC West at the odds that they have.
44:28And I like Tyler Shuck as kind of a late run quarterback.
44:31I completely agree with what you said at the start of the show, which is that this is the year to absolutely wait on quarterback.
44:39It's incredibly deep, whether it's Kyler, whether it's Goff, whether it's Baker, whether it's Tyler Shuck, who I have a QB 17,
44:45his ADP is QB 20, but 17 or more fantasy points and seven is nine starts.
44:50Since he took over as a starter, he was a top 12 fantasy quarterback down the stretch last year, sixth in passing
44:57yards per game after becoming the starter. And I've said this multiple times.
45:00So my audience that's been here with every show is sick of me hearing it, but sick of me saying it.
45:07They're sick of hearing it or hearing me say it.
45:10The Pino is kicking in. Aloha, Bricks. I'm sorry, guys.
45:13You're absolutely right. I'm half drunk here. But the thing, Adam, that I subscribe to is that for all the film study
45:19we want to do and for all the stat nerding out we want to do, that people tend to forget that you're
45:26talking about human beings playing a game and that human beings have emotions like ego and pettiness and jealousy and pride.
45:32And that there's a massive difference. Forgetting everything else, there's a massive difference between Tyler Shuck coming into the season last year
45:38where people are like, they should have drafted Shadour.
45:41And I can't believe we're going to Tyler Shuck.
45:44And should he even be the starter? And he started the year on the bench.
45:48And then he gets into the game. And does he know, is he getting pulled?
45:53Like it's, you know, which guy is it going to be?
45:56There's a big difference between going into the season that year versus this year where he walks into the building knowing this is my team.
46:03I'm the guy. They didn't draft a quarterback. They didn't go out.
46:07They have said, Tyler Shuck, you are the man.
46:10And so there's just a huge difference in sort of that mindset.
46:13And then you think about, again, what the Saints did in the offseason, what they did in the draft.
46:19Again, I'm a Moore believer. They were first in pace of play last year, the Saints were.
46:24So I'm all in on Tyler Shuck. Yeah, and that's going to be sticky on Kellen Moore.
46:29Kellen Moore offense has always run very fast. They're playing indoors.
46:32They have a ton of dome games, even on the road.
46:36And so, yeah, I like the Saints a lot.
46:38They also improve the offensive line, which I think is important for Shuck.
46:42David Edwards was one of the big free agent signings.
46:45And they get Eric McCoy back, who was hurt all of last year, one of the better centers in the entire league.
46:52And Jordan Tyson is a baller. So it lines up really well for Tyler Shuck.
46:56Look, I'm the only concern I have is that the betting market is not on Tyler Shuck from a implied points perspective.
47:03You know, we can see all the look ahead lines.
47:06We kind of average them out. Saints are somewhere in like the mid 20s, which surprised me in terms of implied points per game for the season.
47:14I disagree with that. I think they're going to score.
47:17I think they're going to play fast. I disagree with it.
47:20But that's like the only level of pause that I have on Tyler Shuck.
47:24But, yeah, we're all over the Saints also, especially Jordan Tyson and Alave and a little bit of Juwan Johnson here also.
47:31Yeah, Juwan Johnson, I think as a late run tight end, I think is really interesting because, again, it's they're going to pay it.
47:38They're going to play at a fast pace of play.
47:41And he's going to be their third pass catcher, basically, as well.
47:44Stuntman Chuck saying half drunk, fully bald is a pretty good team name, which I agree.
47:49And a theme of the show. I am half drunk and fully bald.
47:53All right. It's time for last call here, Adam.
47:56So comeback player of the year. I'm curious. I'm curious who you have here at comeback player of the year.
48:02Mahomes is at plus 185. Jane Daniels at plus 450.
48:05Kyler Murray, six to one. We talked about him earlier.
48:08Aaron Donald. Aaron Donald, I should say, if he actually does come back.
48:11He's nine to one. Where are you at on comeback player of the year?
48:16Yeah. So any time Mahomes gets into the mix on these awards, it's so hard to fade him because the people who
48:22vote for these awards, keep in mind, I do a lot of this stuff with awards.
48:27We are looking for what the voters will do, not what should happen, not who I think should be MVP or comeback player of the year.
48:35It is what the voters and these voters love Patrick Mahomes.
48:38I mean, like it's like a running bit, you know, like Chris Collinsworth, like Mahomes throws like a three yard pass.
48:44He's like, oh my God, Patrick Mahomes, you know, and it's funny.
48:48And I agree. So it's tough to fade Mahomes here considering he's coming off of the ACL and he's going to play week one.
48:55I think if I had to take someone right now, it would on downboard, it would be Malik neighbors.
49:01Like to come off of such a bad injury, to have all this rhetoric throughout the whole off season that he's might not play this year at all.
49:09This is such a mess for him to come back and look incredible in camp.
49:13And then they said, say he goes out and has a Malik neighbor season, which if Malik neighbors had never been hurt,
49:20we would probably have him as a top 12 pick this year.
49:23And so if he can go and catch a hundred balls, go over a thousand yards, he's, I believe, 18 to one or so.
49:31That would be the one that I would, I would consider.
49:34Yeah. I have a 12 to one in terms of the odds that we're here, but you know, it's a little all over the place.
49:41It's moving in the right direction because of all the training camp videos that have come out that seeing how good he looks.
49:48So I'm with you on, and he's also in a major market because you're a hundred percent right.
49:54And you know, my old co-host, Jay Croucher, he's also big into the future market.
49:58Shout out Jay Croucher. He lost a ton of money, a massive amount of money, like a significantly massive amount of money
50:05because he had DeMar Hamlin for comeback player of the year.
50:08Yes. You know, and then it went to, you know, Joe Flacco.
50:11And so, you know, I, so I'm with you on Mahomes.
50:15It's just so obvious, right? You know, Joe Burrow, Joe Burrow, you know, like, could you see Joe Burrow winning it again?
50:21Right. I mean, like it's every other year, McCaffrey would be somebody that you could certainly see, you know, winning it because,
50:28you know, McCaffrey gets nicked up one, you know, misses one game.
50:31And he's in it. But so I think Mahomes is really interesting.
50:35Malik Nabors, I think is a great call. I'll give you just the only other one that I would give you would be Travis Hunter.
50:42That if, you know, if he does successfully play both sides of the ball, we think the Jaguars are going to be pretty good.
50:50He's such a unique player that, you know, and that was such a devastating injury.
50:54If you, if, if Travis Hunter comes back and is good on both sides of the ball, you know, ends are all
51:01pro votes on both sides of the ball. And they're going to want to reward that, but they're not going to know
51:07how to reward that because it's not like you can make them all pro for one, for both teams or I don't know.
51:14Like Travis Hunter would be sort of interesting there.
51:17Micah Parsons is interesting. And depending on when Kittle comes back, obviously the fans love Kittle, but I'm with you.
51:23It's Mahomes, it's Mahomes will win this award. Barring anything.
51:26It's closing time, which means you don't have to go home, but you can't stay here.
51:30We've got a minute left, Adam. Anything you want to promote over at EstablishTheRun.com.
51:34Where else can we find you? Yeah. Best way to kind of get into our ecosystem for free is just go on
51:41YouTube, find Establish The Run and hit subscribe there.
51:44It's totally free. Or you can follow me on Twitter there at Adam Levitan and you can kind of see what we get into on a daily basis.
51:52I think you're, you are, I don't have this for a lot of people, but you are one of the people that
51:59I follow on Twitter that I have the alerts on.
52:02So that when you tweet something, it always pops up for me because I think, I think you're really good on social media.
52:08I think you're good in general, but I think you're really good on social media.
52:13I also, I also have it on for Evan because I know it'll never get bothered.
52:18I'll never, I'll never, my phone won't blow up.
52:20You know what I mean? It's just, it's good.
52:23You know, when he comes out of hibernation. Anyway, Adam Levitan, you were awesome.
52:27Thanks so much. Good luck at ETR. We'll see you tomorrow.
52:30Peace out.