The 8 Biggest ADP Values with JJ Zachariason
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
52 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 10, 2026
Published
Mon, August 10, 2026
20
Player insights
17
Players mentioned
Topics
Christian WatsonMike EvansRhamondre StevensonA.J. BrownBrian Thomas Jr.Chris GodwinColston LovelandEmeka EgbukaJakobi MeyersJonah ColemanJordyn TysonKenneth Walker IIILuther BurdenMalik Willis
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveProjection48:46
Matthew Berry predicts a bounce-back season for AJ Brown, citing his role as the alpha receiver for Drake Maye. Berry believes Brown is motivated to prove himself after leaving Philadelphia and expects him to be a major red-zone threat in a high-volume passing offense.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
NegativeDepth Chart26:12
Matthew Berry and JJ Zachariason both prefer Parker Washington over Brian Thomas Jr. in their rankings, noting uncertainty regarding which version of Thomas will appear this season.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue43:30
Matthew Berry argues that the fantasy community is over-hating Chris Godwin, who is currently being drafted outside the top 40 wide receivers. With Mike Evans gone, Godwin is in a contract year and remains a focal point in the slot for an offense that ranks sixth in slot targets. Berry projects him as a potential team-leading pass catcher.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveValue16:19
Matthew Berry and JJ Zachariason view Christian Watson as a significant value, with Berry ranking him 53rd overall compared to his 68-69 ADP. Watson is one of three wide receivers to average at least 11 yards per target over the last two seasons. Despite health concerns, Berry notes Watson was the WR15 in points per game over the final seven weeks of last year. Zachariason adds that Watson's role in the Z-receiver spot, combined with potential volume increases, makes him a prime upside target in the 5th-6th round.
Insight pagePositiveValue19:07
Matthew Berry and JJ Zachariason both target Christian Watson as a high-upside play in the fifth or sixth round. Despite concerns about the Green Bay wide receiver room, Watson is expected to frequently play a versatile role, and his narrow target share competition makes him a strong value.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveProjection8:55
Matthew Berry is very high on Colston Loveland, ranking him 38th overall and his TE3. Berry does not believe the Luther Burden injury significantly boosts Loveland's value, as he is already bullish on his role regardless of other injuries in the Bears offense.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
PositiveRole18:56
Matthew Berry notes that Emeka Egbuka will likely play the 'zero' role in his offense, which is a positive indicator as it suggests the coaching staff intends to move him around the formation to create separation.
Insight pageJakobi Meyers
NegativeValue26:24
JJ Zachariason views Jakobi Meyers as a 10th-round pick with a high floor but limited ceiling, placing him well behind Parker Washington in his personal rankings.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
PositiveSleeper50:56
JJ Zachariason highlights Jonah Coleman as one of his favorite sleepers for the 2026 season. He anticipates that Coleman could take over the lead running back role in Denver during the second half of the season, potentially due to injury issues with JK Dobbins.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
PositiveBreakout31:04
JJ Zachariason and Matthew Berry are high on rookie Jordan Tyson, citing his elite 'ZAP' model score (above 90). Historically, rookies with this score have been elite assets, averaging 14.2 PPR points per game. They believe his ADP (outside the top 81) is too low and that he will thrive in the Kellen Moore offense alongside Chris Olave.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
NegativeValue12:19
Both Matthew Berry and JJ Zachariason are high on Kenneth Walker, who is being drafted at an ADP of 19.5. Zachariason ranks him 15th overall (RB9) while Berry ranks him RB7. Zachariason highlights Walker's explosive run rate (15% of runs for 10+ yards) as a major upgrade for the Chiefs' offense, which struggled with efficiency last year. Dan Graziano reported from Chiefs camp that the team intends to involve Walker in the passing game, addressing the primary concern regarding his fantasy floor.
Insight pageLuther Burden
NegativeInjury10:27
Luther Burden is expected to miss about a month due to injury, though there is hope he plays in Week 1. JJ Zachariason is moving him down in his tiers, noting that while the injury is scary due to potential re-injury risk, the typical 2-3 week recovery timeline suggests the re-injury rate may be lower than if it occurred mid-season. Matthew Berry and Zachariason agree the market may overreact, creating a potential buy-low opportunity if his ADP drops by a round or more.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveBreakout39:43
JJ Zachariason views Malik Willis as an elite fantasy value due to his rushing floor. In three Green Bay starts, Willis averaged 58 rushing yards and one touchdown per game. Zachariason notes that quarterbacks with high rushing volume (7+ points per game) almost always finish as top-20 fantasy assets, and if Willis shows even average passing ability, he could reach top-10 status.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveValue19:42
JJ Zachariason and Matthew Berry are bullish on Mike Evans as a value pick in the early sixth round. Despite age and health concerns, Evans maintains a high target-per-route-run rate (27%) and fits well with Brock Purdy, who excels at deep-ball accuracy. Zachariason projects him as a potential top-15 wide receiver if healthy, citing his consistent end-zone target share.
Insight pagePositiveProjection46:45
JJ Zachariason identifies Mike Evans as a prime candidate to lead the league in receiving touchdowns. In the Shanahan system, Evans is expected to serve as the primary red-zone threat, especially with George Kittle dealing with injuries and the team potentially looking to limit Christian McCaffrey's goal-line workload.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue23:48
Matthew Berry and JJ Zachariason are significantly higher on Parker Washington than his 80.1 ADP, with both ranking him in their top 30 wide receivers. Washington showed elite efficiency late last season, and the team's decision to move on from Christian Kirk suggests they trust him. He is viewed as a high-upside middle-round target who dominates in yards per route run.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveValue36:47
Matthew Berry argues that Rhamondre Stevenson is an undervalued 'boring' pick compared to TreVeyon Henderson. Stevenson is a three-down back who can catch passes and is projected for 200+ touches, making him a safer and better value at his current ADP.
Insight pagePositiveValue37:34
Rhamondre Stevenson is identified as a significant value at his current ADP. JJ Zachariason projects him for 200 touches and expects him to outperform his draft position. Additionally, with a tougher schedule for the Patriots, the team may pass more, potentially increasing Stevenson's usage in pass-protection roles.
Insight pageTravis Hunter
PositiveRole27:16
Matthew Berry and JJ Zachariason believe Travis Hunter will play more offense than the market expects. Despite concerns about his defensive workload, they argue his unique talent allows him to be impactful on both sides of the ball, potentially hurting other pass catchers in the Jacksonville offense.
Insight pageTreVeyon Henderson
NegativeBust36:51
Matthew Berry notes that while TreVeyon Henderson is explosive, he has struggled in pass protection. Berry suggests that Henderson is currently overvalued by the market compared to Rhamondre Stevenson, as there is no guarantee Henderson would handle a full 20-touch workload if the starter were to miss time.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Well, it is noon on YouTube, but of course it is 5 o'clock somewhere.
0:04Happy Monday. The Happy Hour Bar is open. My name is Matthew Berry.
0:08And before we get to our guests, I just want to remind everyone that we are open for business at GuillotineLeagues.com.
0:13It is the best way to play fantasy football.
0:16So much fun. Brand new app, brand new team, brand new website.
0:19And oh, by the way, if you are in a state where you can pay, where you can play fantasy football for
0:25money at Guillotine Leagues, we are not taking any fee.
0:28So every entry fee goes into the prize pool, total prize pool, no fee.
0:32We're not taking it. But please check it out at GuillotineLeagues.com.
0:35And somebody who I know is a hardcore Guillotine League player and a very good one because I've been in a league
0:41with him is my friend right now from LateRoundQB, LateRound.com, JJ Zacharias.
0:45JJ Zacharias. And JJ Zacharias, making his Happy Hour debut.
0:47LateRound.com, the LateRound podcast, the LateRound prospect guide, everything LateRound.
0:50JJ Zacharias, and welcome to the bar. Thanks for having me, man.
0:54You know, I don't have a beverage in a solo cup, but I do have my tea, my typical tea that I drink while I do shows.
1:01There you go. Drink up. Drink up. Well, all beverages are welcome at the bar.
1:05So you're more than allowed to do that. We've got you and I coming up today on the show.
1:11We are going to go through, you and I have each identified a number of players that we think are completely mispriced
1:17at ADP, at their average draft position. So we're going to go back and forth, like the biggest ADP values.
1:22And there's also some news here, but I want to get to know you a little bit here, JJ.
1:28So, like, I have so much respect for you.
1:30And I just want to, for people that may not be familiar with your story, but you are somebody that just, and
1:36always people say to me, like, how do I get into the industry?
1:40How do I do this? How do I do that?
1:43And for a lot of us, there were people, you know, that if you were, you immediately worked for a major media
1:49company or even like a smaller media company, like their platform allowed you to get known.
1:53But you like, as far as I know, like you started writing, you had this premise about drafting quarterbacks late, long time
1:59ago where people were taking quarterbacks in the first, second round.
2:02And you, you basically wrote your own like memo, right?
2:05Do I have this right that you basically wrote this long kind of manifesto type thing about late round quarterback.
2:11And then you eventually, I believe your first gig was at number fire.
2:14Do I have this right? And so anyway, I'm not telling your career for you, but take, take us through a little
2:21bit of how you became the late round QB guy and JJ Zacharias in big capital letters.
2:25Yeah. You know, it was just one of those things where back in like the 2012 timeframe, you know, I wanted to,
2:31you know, I was at like a crossroads very early in my career.
2:35Cause it's not like, you know, I was, I was in my early twenties at that point.
2:40I wasn't that far out of college. And I was just looking at what was going on in the, in the fantasy space.
2:46And I, you know, saw that there was a lot of advice of drafting quarterbacks early and I understood why that was happening.
2:53You know, it was coming off a really, really good season, but there was just a lot of, you know, data and,
2:59and, and logic and stuff that I wanted to put together and, and, and kind of package up into a, an ebook.
3:05And so I did that with the late round quarterback ebook.
3:08And then that slowly morphed into me getting, like you said, a gig at number fire work there for a number of years.
3:14We got bought by FanDuel. So I worked at FanDuel for a number of years.
3:19And then while I was there, I started the late round podcast and it just slowly has kind of morphed into what
3:25it is today with late round fantasy football. It's been, you know, this business has been, been out there now for about four and a half years.
3:32And, you know, I have a couple of guys that are working with me and you know, I'm, I'm truly, truly living the dream.
3:39I know that you always talk about this, that you still can't believe that it's real, that you're able to do this for a living.
3:46And I have felt the same way for the last, you know, 13, 14 years that I've been able to do this.
3:52And it's been, you know, it's just been cool.
3:55And we, you know, we, we met each other really early on in the, in the, you know, those adventures.
4:00I remember, you know, going to, to a Sloan conference and seeing you there and we got to hang out a little bit.
4:07So like, it's been just a really cool evolution.
4:09You've gotten to see me go from being a, a mid twenties, you know, annoying person on Twitter to a father and,
4:15you know, hopefully, hopefully more mature these days than I was back then.
4:19But, you know, it's just, it's, it's a, it's a, it's a really fun adventure.
4:23I'm really like, just, just blessed and lucky to be doing this.
4:26Brian Hickman, three, six, one, two brings it up.
4:29It's the JJ. We don't recognize McCarthy. That's right.
4:31You're the official JJ of the fantasy football happy hour.
4:34We have no use for McCarthy, but JJ Zacharias and can actually help fantasy managers in a way that McCarthy can't.
4:40Are you excited that your own, your Pittsburgh Steelers are, are adopting the late run quarterback model here with, with, with Aaron Rogers?
4:46Yeah, man. We'll see. We'll see. You know, look, I am more optimistic than I think most that I like Tomlin.
4:52I think that he's a really solid head coach, but I do think that his biggest flaw was just not knowing how to hire from a coordinator perspective.
5:00And I'm a little bit optimistic that the offense can, can look better than it, than it has, you know, over the last handful of years.
5:07I think the offense will look better. I think McCarthy is actually a pretty decent play caller.
5:12I do think that no coach has gotten less out of more talent than Mike McCarthy over his NFL career.
5:18When you think about having peak Aaron Rogers in green Bay, you know, all the years in Dallas with Dak and, and everyone.
5:24I just, I feel like, I feel like all the Steelers fans that were like this to Mike Tomlin, I can't wait
5:30to get rid of this nine and eight guy.
5:33I'm like, have you met Mike McCarthy? Right. So we'll see the whole free Aaron Jones thing that I started was entirely
5:39because of Mike McCarthy, who would not give Aaron Jones more run, despite like all the efficiency metrics, despite the fact every
5:45time he touched the ball, he was electric. And it was just like, no, we still got to applaud, you know, AJ Dillon or whoever out there.
5:53All right. Enough, enough chit chat here, JJ, but congratulations on all the success.
5:56It's incredible to see you are truly a grinder.
5:59You are somebody that like started with literally nothing.
6:01You, you knew no one. You just kept putting out good content, great content.
6:05And you quick, you developed an audience over years and years, years, and they've all found you at late round.com.
6:11I've tried to hire you. I think three different times you've turned me down each time.
6:15But, you know, open invitation, as you know, you ever want a job, you've got one, JJ.
6:20But I'm thrilled that you've taken a little time out of your schedule to join us here on the fantasy football happy hour.
6:27We got some tough news over the weekend about Luther Burden, who is somebody that I know you and I are both very high on.
6:34But here's what's weird. I think you and I are the only two fantasy analysts.
6:38No one else in the entire industry likes Luther Burton.
6:40It's only you and I, JJ. But he's expected to miss about a month.
6:44They expect or hope that he plays in week one.
6:47Obviously, you know, everyone out there, all the massive Kalief Raymond fans, Zavion Thomas hoping for his shot.
6:52But are you adjusting Luther Burton in your ranks at all?
6:55Does this news adjust how you're drafting Luther Burton?
6:58So I'm moving him down in my in the tier that he was in.
7:02Right. Like it's not not like a big tier jump for me.
7:05You know, if you were sort of between like a Lad McConkie or Luther Burton or an Emeka Buka or Luther Burton
7:11or something like that, I think it's easier to just go with those those types of players.
7:16And again, I'm high on him. You know, the zap model, my prospect model absolutely loved Burden.
7:21And then obviously he had such great route per route run efficiency last year.
7:25And then obviously, DJ Moore has gone this year.
7:27So there's there's a lot of opportunity. But with that being said, you know, if you if you listen to a lot
7:33of the physical therapists and the doctors that are that are online, that are doing great work and that are reliable, that
7:39have a good track record, you know, they are saying mostly in unison that, yeah, there's some re-injury risk.
7:45It's a little bit scary from that perspective. But given the fact that this is usually a timeline of like two to
7:51three weeks or so, and they're giving him that extra, you know, wiggle room a little bit, then that re-injury occurrence rate
7:57is going to be a little bit lower than what we would typically see.
8:01If this were happening, you know, week seven or something like that right in the middle of the season.
8:06So I don't want to react too harshly. And I think the market's going to react more harshly than I will.
8:12So it just means more Luther Burden for me.
8:14That's the point I was going to bring up.
8:17You never want to say, hey, this injury is a good thing because it's obviously not.
8:21And you never want to root for a player to be injured.
8:25But I will say, I do think there's a chance that this, that the market drops too far in him.
8:30And if he drops like a round, round and a half, he shouldn't.
8:34I moved him down a couple of spots in my overall.
8:37And I think your point about like using it as a tiebreaker with other people, that's great.
8:42But like, you know, as Brandon Garrett says, you know, but now he's going to go later and we get IR spots, baby.
8:48Still love him. I think still a monster year for the Bears offense overall.
8:52I'm high on Burden. I'm very high on Loveland.
8:55I think Caleb has a monster year as well.
8:57Ved, the FFHH regular says, how much does Loveland get a bump due to the Burden injury?
9:02I don't think he, I mean, he's my tight end three.
9:05So it's not like, I'm not bumping him over McBride or Bowers.
9:08So it's just like, I don't think there's much of a bump.
9:12And again, even if he were to miss week one, even if he started slow week one or two, like, I don't
9:18think he can bump Loveland up more than, I mean, you know, I'm at 38 overall.
9:22Like I'm, you know, I'm all in on Colston Loveland.
9:25Again, I'm the only fantasy analyst. No one else sees this about Colston Loveland.
9:29I'm the only one that's him. But that's a name to write down for you, JJ.
9:33Put him into your little zap model. Just to put right the, it's Loveland, L-A-N-D.
9:38Just go ahead and do me a favor if you can.
9:41So anyway, I think you and I are on the exact same page here with Luther Burden.
9:45And the last thing I'll say, and I think you bring up a good point, is like about, you know, there's a
9:52lot of people on social media that claim to be physical therapists, they claim to be doctors, that claim to be, you know, sports medicine.
9:59And I think some of them do really, really good work, right?
10:02And you know me, shout out to the goat Stefania Bell, who I think, you know, she is the gold standard and love me some Stefania Bell.
10:09And I think there are other people that do really good work, but not all of them.
10:14And just because you, your profile picture has you wearing a stethoscope does not mean you are necessarily giving out accurate advice.
10:20So here's what I would say, because I'm not going to sit here and like trash other people and like that's not my style.
10:27What I would tell you is, is that if you have a fantasy analyst that you trust, if you trust me, if
10:33you trust JJ, there's a lot of people out there that I think do really good work.
10:38We, us in the industry, I promise you, we know who's legit and we know who's out there just, you know, cosplaying an online doctor.
10:45And just, you know, if you're unsure who to trust in that particular world, just trust us because I promise you, we know what's what.
10:52Or just listen, just follow Stefania. Stefania is the best one.
10:55All right, my friend, you and I went through ADP.
10:58I know you're doing a zillion drafts, as am I.
11:00I understand you're a best ball bro. Yes. And, you know, and so I don't know which ADP you use.
11:06Over at fantasylife.com, we have an ADP tool that tracks the ADP of every single site, anywhere you could possibly draft.
11:12We've got their ADP. And I'm sure you've talked about this as a lot, but one of the things that was in
11:18my draft day manifesto, available for free on fantasylife.com, I'm company man.
11:21One of the things I talked about there is, and I talk about this all the time, is that ADP on the
11:27site that you draft on greatly influences where people go.
11:30And so somebody going 20 spots higher on Yahoo will go than he is on ESPN, will often go two rounds higher
11:36on Yahoo than he will on ESPN. ADP and the default ranks of wherever you draft greatly influence how the draft goes.
11:43So somebody that might be a arbitrage opportunity on one site might be correctly priced on another.
11:47So I think that's just really important to understand, hey, where am I drafting?
11:51And look at the ADP and the default ranks in that particular site.
11:55And so whoever's ranks you use, whether you use JJ's, whether you use mine, whether you use somebody else's, compare the ranks
12:01that you trust to the ADP and the default ranks on that site, so you can look at arbitrage opportunities.
12:07What I did is I took the consensus ADP using the fantasylife.com app, the ADP app, the consensus ADP across the entire
12:13industry of these players to come up where you and I find some opportunities where we're higher or lower on ADP.
12:19And I want to start with a guy that we're both in on, and that's Kenneth Walker, currently ADP of 19 and a half.
12:25You have him at 15 overall and running back nine.
12:28He's going at running back 11 in consensus ADP.
12:31I actually have him at running back seven. So you and I are both on the Ken Walker train, JJ.
12:36Yeah, and look, two spots in running back rank that early is pretty significant, you know, especially because there's a lot of
12:42good running backs that go in that range. You know, I did consider maybe like a Chase Brown here too.
12:48He's probably my other, you know, kind of favorite in that round two area.
12:52But I just think Kenneth Walker is an unbelievably good fit in this Chiefs offense.
12:56You know, it seems very clear that the Chiefs look at what looked at what they had last year with Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco.
13:03And they said, we need an upgrade because last year they were they were 27th in rushing yards over expected per attempt.
13:09But the interesting thing is that they were actually eighth in success rate last year as a tandem and as a team.
13:15They had one run of 20 plus yards last year on over 280 carries and their 10 plus yard run rates were
13:21eight and a half percent and six point one percent.
13:24Kenneth Walker, his rate of gaining 10 or more yards last year.
13:27So again, Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt were in that like six to eight percent range.
13:32Kenneth Walker last year was at 15 percent. And Walker has been a home run hitter traditionally in the NFL.
13:37I mean, he's kind of been like a lower success rate type running back, you know, higher efficiency because he breaks off those big plays.
13:44But now you're in a situation in Kansas City where we know the success rate should be there because last year that
13:51offense faced the highest percentage of light boxes. And so you have to keep them honest because you don't want to get
13:57beat deep against Patrick Mahomes, even though he hasn't been great, you know, with the deep ball of late.
14:02But they face a lot of too high. They're going to face a lot of light boxes.
14:07So all of a sudden, like Kenneth Walker could go absolutely bananas on the ground in this Chiefs offense.
14:12The big question mark for me is going to be the receiving work, which has kind of been the question mark for Kenneth Walker throughout his career.
14:20He had that one spike season with Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator where he had like a 13 percent target share.
14:25But he's been at like that eight percent target share mark in three of his four seasons.
14:30The one thing that's keeping me going and excited about this, you know, there is other factors and other players at play.
14:36You know, Brashad Smith might make the roster and be relevant as a pass catcher.
14:40I love Emmett Johnson as a prospect and what he can do as a pass catcher.
14:45And that's a little bit scary. But Kenneth Walker in three of his four seasons in the league, he said yards per
14:51outrun rates at one point three or higher, which are very, very good and efficient numbers for running backs and yards per outrun.
14:57Even at running back is pretty predictive of what we could see in target share in the future.
15:03So, you know, my home's coming off the ACL.
15:05I think they lean on him more in the red zone.
15:08Kenneth Walker, that is. There's just a lot to like about this profile in this situation.
15:13Yeah, it's so interesting. Last night, my wife literally told me she was saying, have you looked at Kenneth Walker's yards per run rate?
15:19And I'm like, honey, I know I'm talking to JJ tomorrow.
15:22Stop it already. So one thing I will say, though, that's what will give you, make you happy here, JJ, is that
15:28Dan Graziano was on the show last week. So I'm sure you have it queued up.
15:33You haven't had a chance to listen to it.
15:35You've just downloaded the show. I did. I saw it.
15:38I saw it. But Graz was actually at Chiefs camp and said they are using Walker in the passing game.
15:44That is the intent. That's what they want to do.
15:47And so he was there. He talked to Andy Reid, who told him, like, that's the plan is to get him involved in the passing attack as well.
15:54Just to give you a stat that goes to what you were talking about, the explosive run rate.
15:59Since Ken Walker into the NFL, here's the entire list of running backs that have more runs of 20 or more yards.
16:06Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Jameerah Gibbs. That's the entire list.
16:08So anyway, so we're right there. I'm at running back 13 overall, running back seven.
16:13You and I are both very high on Ken Walker, the third.
16:16One guy that I love above ADP. How about Christian Watson?
16:19Right? I'm at running back a wide receiver 26.
16:21He's currently going wide receiver 29. But where I'm really significant on him is I'm higher in the overall.
16:27I'm at 53 overall. Current ADP in the market is 68, 69.
16:30Look, this is a guy who's one of three wide receivers, literally just one of three wide receivers to average at least
16:3611 yards per target each of the last two seasons, which is a stat that tells you what you know.
16:42It's like when this guy is open and this guy is healthy, he's getting good looks.
16:46He's getting deep looks. In the last night, he's had 19 career games where he's had at least a 20% target share.
16:52And he's averaging 16 fantasy points per game in those games.
16:55Obviously, no Don Tavion Wicks, no Romeo Dobbs. We don't know if Jaden Reed can stay healthy.
17:00We don't know if Jaden Reed's going to play on the outside at all.
17:04Everyone's talking about Matthew Golden. What a great camp he's had.
17:07Matthew Golden's unproven, you know? And Brian Oswald saying, Barry, you were the luckiest dude alive.
17:12Your wife pulling deep stats. Get out of here.
17:14No, it's true. Absolutely. My wife does. And she does it while wearing lingerie.
17:18It's crazy. I am the luckiest guy in the universe.
17:21She puts on sexy lingerie and just, you know, nerds out with me on football stats.
17:25That's why I love my wife. But over the final seven games of last year, JJ, Christian Watson was wide receiver 15 on a points per game basis.
17:33He's going as barely a top 30 wide receiver.
17:36The question with Watson is always his health. But I'm a believer sometimes that his injury process, his injury, it's been more
17:42bad luck, bad injury luck, than he's somebody who's an injury prone player.
17:45And I just think at cost, he's an unbelievable value because I think he's a legit wide receiver two bordering on wide receiver one in the NFL.
17:53And he's not being priced that like that. Yeah, I mean, look, like the no Romeo Dobbs and no Dontavian Wicks thing is not nothing.
18:00I know it sounds like it might be nothing because they still have Matthew Golden and Jaden Reed.
18:05But Christian Watson last year did all that on a 71 percent route share where, you know, before without the injuries and
18:11stuff like the year before, he was closer to 78 percent, 80 percent.
18:15So there's a lot more volume that could be going his way.
18:18I also like, you know, just reading some reports out of out of Packers camp, it sounds like they want Matthew Golden
18:24to play the X in that offense. And so Christian Watson will play the Z, Jaden Reed more in the slot.
18:30And let's cross our fingers that Jaden Reed at least gets some some run on the outside.
18:35I still think there's a possibility because, again, we have no idea what Matthew Golden is really all about.
18:40But if Golden's playing the X, we're in an NFL era where that zero and the way that these offenses are throwing
18:46out so much motion and getting these guys, you know, in space and open.
18:50That zero is becoming more and more valuable. You know, there's a guy that that, you know, like a Jalen Waddle or
18:56an Emeka Buka will be playing the zero more than likely in their offenses.
19:00And that's good news because that means that their offensive coordinators are looking at those players to shift around the formation and get open.
19:07And Christian Watson is more than likely going to be playing that role pretty frequently this year.
19:12So I couldn't agree more. One of my targets this year.
19:15He's just in a really good spot, especially in a spot in the draft where you're already chasing for upside around that point.
19:21You know, when you're in the fifth, sixth round, like you should be looking for for that upside play.
19:26Jay Woogie says he can't go down the Green Bay wide receiver rabbit hole again.
19:31I get it, but I think you're looking at a much more narrow target share and you have two question marks after Watson.
19:37All right, JJ, I want to talk to you about another guy that's on your list, which I was happy to see
19:43because this is like we did not plan this.
19:46But a lot of your guys are guys that I've been targeting.
19:49I've looked at that. I've been talking about a lot.
19:52We're both ahead of him in ADP. And that's Mike Evans.
19:55Mike Evans, who's going to I mean, this is the easiest comp, but I'm just like I think he's this year's Devontae Adams.
20:01Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look, let's be clear. This is a very volatile selection.
20:05Of course. Mike Evans, right? Like like we recognize, you know, he's he's way past 30 years old.
20:10You know, he hasn't been able to stay healthy.
20:13I have a metric called market score that we created this offseason where it looks at a player's ADP.
20:18It looks at some previous season inputs and it tries to predict where these guys are going to finish, you know, better than 80.
20:25It's more predictive than what ADP would give you.
20:27And I got to be honest, Mike Evans does not look great in market score.
20:31And you can look at comps with market score, too.
20:34And everyone should close your ears when I say this.
20:37But one of his top comps is Allen Robinson's Ram season.
20:40And so and then you sit back and you're like, I can kind of see why that's coming out, you know, algorithmically and why it's seeing that.
20:48But again, so like this is a really volatile situation.
20:50It can go in a lot of different directions.
20:53But I'm bullish because across these major platforms right now, you can find them in like the early sixth round of a 12 team league.
21:00And at that point in your draft, similar to what I was saying with Christian Watson, you really shouldn't be that afraid of a player's floor.
21:07And I think that this fit with the 49ers could be awesome.
21:10You know, he's been one of the best down the field threats throughout his career.
21:15Even last year, his 12th NFL season, his average depth of target was in the 89th percentile among receivers with 200 or more routes run.
21:22And then Brock Purdy led the NFL in completion rate on 20 plus air yard throws last year.
21:27Over the last three seasons, among 37 quarterbacks with 500 or more dropbacks, no one's completed a higher percentage of deep throws than Brock Purdy has.
21:34And you can say that Mike Evans dropped off last year.
21:37You know, obviously he was banged up. But him and Embeka Abuka both had really, really poor, you know, outside the top 100 catchable target rates.
21:44You know, the thing that I like seeing with Evans and his numbers last year was that he was still targeted at
21:50a very high pace per route run. 27 percent targets per route run rate, which tells intent, right?
21:55Like it shows intent. It's just that Baker couldn't deliver the ball.
21:59You know, if you've watched the quarterback documentary, like you've seen that he was banged up throughout all of last season.
22:04And there's a very good reason as to why multiple receivers in that Tampa Bay offense were just struggling, you know, from
22:11a catch rate perspective and from a conversion perspective.
22:13Now you get Ricky Pearsall for the season. Another thing that's kind of weird is that you get the Pearsall injury and
22:19Mike Evans ADP hasn't changed at all. I know he's dealing with something a little bit more minor, but nothing's really changed
22:25despite the fact that, you know, they get Debo.
22:28And sure, you know, he can maybe play, you know, a zero for them or, you know, design stripling is getting a lot of hype.
22:35But, you know, realistically, if Mike Evans is healthy, I think he soars past this.
22:39He could be pretty easily a top 15 wide receiver as long as he's healthy.
22:43I know that's a big if. But again, if I'm in round six, early round six, I don't care that much about
22:49downside just given historical bust rates in that range anyway.
22:52That's the argument, right? At cost, the upside is so huge over the last three years.
22:57Niners rank third in the NFL in red zone passing attempts.
23:00And so that's what I mean when I say it even even if like he's not playing a full complement of snaps,
23:06like when they get in close, if it's not McCaffrey, who they're looking for, especially because we don't know when we're seeing George Kittle back.
23:13Right. So you've got an unproven rookie. You've got Debo, who they actively let go and they only reluctantly brought back because,
23:19you know, they were dealing with so many injuries here.
23:22But Mike Evans is somebody they went out and actively sought and signed.
23:25So, you know, Evans has three straight years with at least a 35 percent end zone target share.
23:30So I just think a lot of cheap touchdowns a la Devante Adams last year are coming Mike Evans way.
23:36Needs to stay healthy, but at cost, I think the risk is worth it.
23:40You and I both randomly having that 46 overall, well ahead of his ADP of 62.
23:44All right. Next wide receiver I want to talk about here for me, Parker Washington.
23:49Who's this? John Valarada says he wants to drop the substation.
23:52The substation always stays healthy. I'll say that for you.
23:54All right. I've got Parker Washington here. Like, I just think that I I've said this for years on Parker Washington.
24:00Parker Washington play. I know this sounds insane saying it now in hindsight, but I remember like I think it was two
24:06or three years ago where I was just like, look, there's a reason why they gave up Christian Kirk.
24:12Like the Jaguars let Christian Kirk goes because they think they found something in Parker Washington.
24:16Right. You know, in addition to the numbers over the down of the stretch last year.
24:21Right. Wide receiver 14, 15 and points per game over the final nine games.
24:24But he was also wide receiver 23 in utilization.
24:27And so there's a lot about this Jaguars offense, JJ, that we don't know.
24:31How much is Travis Hunter going to play? Which year do we get Brian Thomas of last year or do you get Brian Thomas of two years ago?
24:39What's a full year of Jacoby Myers look like?
24:41But what we do know is that they really like Parker Washington.
24:45We think this offense is going to be pretty good.
24:47And in the middle of the field, it's just him and Breton Strange.
24:51And like you'll see some other stuff going on as well.
24:54But in the five games he played with Jacoby Myers and Brian Thomas Jr., he had a 22 percent target share, averaged 85 yards a game.
25:01And you just talk about cost. He's going in the ninth round.
25:05I just think I always believe that where there is uncertainty, there is opportunity.
25:09And that because people are still trying to make a sense of this entire Jaguars wide receiver crew, that people are discounting Parker.
25:15He's a smaller guy. He's not a big name.
25:17Yeah, he had a couple of good games down the stretch.
25:21But I just don't feel like he's being ranked anywhere.
25:23He's not going anywhere close to where he should be.
25:26His current ADP is 80.1. I'm at 64 overall.
25:29Yeah. And look, this is one of those cases where if you play best ball, he goes a lot higher than in
25:35a typical, you know, managed season long format. And I think that's telling.
25:38Also, you know, there's a lot of people that are wanting to draft Washington when, you know, there's some skin in the game, too.
25:45But to be clear, these ADPs are mostly season long formats.
25:48Underdog is included in our ADP. But for the most part, this is all this is right.
25:53ESPN, Yahoo, Sleeper, MFL, FFP. Yeah, exactly. Just so everyone knows.
25:56Yeah. The whole scope. Which shows that in those managed leagues, like you'd be going even later on some of these platforms,
26:02you know, that there's there's to me. I have him firmly in the top 30.
26:06I think I have met like wide receiver 28 or so.
26:09You know, if you look at what happened with Jacksonville.
26:12Do you have Brian Thomas Jr. James LeVang wants to know.
26:15Yes, I am. I am Parker Washington over over Brian Thomas Jr.
26:19I think, you know, we could just see some.
26:21Do you have him? Where do you have him compared to Jacoby?
26:24Yeah. Way ahead of Jacoby Myers. Yeah. Jacoby to me is more of like that 10th ish round, you know, higher floor,
26:31you know, just not not super high. You know, again, I chase ceiling.
26:34I look for that upside with with these picks in the in the middle rounds.
26:38And it's hard to find more upside than with Parker Washington.
26:41Like aside from all the hype that he's been getting out of camp, obviously, that's been there.
26:46But if you look at them post by and post Travis Hunter injury last year, we saw Washington go from a 53
26:52percent route shared when a 79 percent route share.
26:55And obviously he dominated, you know, not only on a per route run basis, but in points per game, but on a per route run basis.
27:02He was one point four or five yards per route run better than both Brian Thomas and Jacoby Myers, which is that's wild.
27:08It's like doubling them up almost. Right. Like it was it was crazy efficiency.
27:12And the other thing, too, is that a lot of people are turned off by the players who kind of come from
27:19nowhere one year, you know, and we only see it for half a season or portion of the season.
27:24But if you look at historically middle round wide receivers who had yards per outrun rates above two, but then point per
27:30game rates across the season below 12. So they just weren't seeing enough volume to really come through those guys against what
27:36I refer to as ADP expectation, the amount of points per game we'd expect a player to score based on where he's
27:42being drafted those players on average have outperformed ADP expectation by one point two PPR points per game.
27:47And there's two other guys this year that kind of fit that mold, which is Luther Burden and Terry McLaurin.
27:53Both of them are interesting within that that kind of trend as well.
27:56So and then the last thing I want to throw out there is that I think people look at him as this
28:03like yards after the catch slot guy. He gets down the field, too.
28:06And this is an offense that that loves to feature slot guys.
28:10We've seen it historically in the Liam Cohen offense.
28:12So I think there's a lot to like at this ADP with Parker Washington.
28:16Wheels 504 says, what in the world do we do with Travis Hunter since I drafted him last year in the first round of my Dynasty League?
28:23That is a question I am. I know everyone's saying like they think it's going to play more defense.
28:29I have no inside knowledge on this. I feel like he plays a lot more offense this year than people are expecting.
28:35I have no inside knowledge on that. That is a gut call.
28:38That is just a gut call. But Liam Cohen's an offensive coach.
28:42They want that offense. I think he can be more impactful on the offensive side of the ball.
28:47Travis Hunter can be that. That's anyway, that's my gut call.
28:50I don't know where you are on Travis Hunter.
28:52Yeah, no, I would agree. I think that he's one of those classic guys, too, of like I have him a lot in best ball, right?
28:59Because you don't have to worry about what that route share is going to look like in one week versus another.
29:05And maybe that's a little bit of a cop out answer.
29:08But I agree, though. Like, I think that, you know, oftentimes the fantasy community just thinks in a very black and white
29:15way about this stuff where, you know, Travis Hunter is going to play more defense.
29:19Oh, that means he's not going to play any offense.
29:22And and then, you know, you'll look at like training camp notes and stats about how frequently he played on the defensive
29:28side and how frequently he played on the offensive side.
29:30The problem is they're playing against each other. So that has to equal 100 percent, right, with with offensive defense.
29:36Whereas realistically, in a game, he can just, you know, he can he can play both sides and be over the 50
29:42percent mark on both ends because he's that special of a talent.
29:45So I agree. Like, I do think that Travis Hunter is going to probably hurt a wide receiver or a pass catcher in this offense.
29:52I just think we're at the point where like we saw Jacksonville's offense be a top three unit in touchdowns per game when they started featuring Parker Washington.
30:00Washington more. Why would they go away from that?
30:03It's similar to to them drafting tight ends as early as they did.
30:06You know, they get a blocking tight end in round two.
30:09They get another guy, Tanner Cozy, in like round five of the draft.
30:13And everyone's like, oh, they're going to run more 12 personnel.
30:16Why? Why would they do that? They have great wide receivers to not do that.
30:20So I think that that Liam Cohen is logical enough to know that Parker Washington could be a very, very good player
30:26and they want to run their offense through him.
30:29Yeah, I think a couple of comments ago, one of the regulars, Martin's World, I think it said, said, find a wife
30:35that looks at you the way Matthew Barry looks at Parker Washington.
30:38And just funny story. You know, my wife and I've been married for a long time.
30:43And so to spice it up the other weekend, she dressed as Parker Washington.
30:47We had ourselves a night. We had ourselves a night.
30:50My wife's a gamer, JJ. My wife's a gamer.
30:52I'm just letting you know that right now. I appreciate that.
30:55Yeah. I appreciate that. God bless her. God bless her.
30:58That poor woman. Hey, so here's one that I'm super excited to hear from you on, JJ, because I traded up.
31:04I traded a pretty penny in my dynasty league to go up and get him.
31:08I was picking towards the end of the first round, but I moved up to the 103 when Jordan Tyson fell to 103 in my dynasty league.
31:16And I see that you like him quite a bit this year as well.
31:19Yeah, I mean, I think that you could even argue him higher than where I have him ranked right now.
31:25And it has nothing to do with the viral clip going around of him burning the corner and getting that out and just taking his lunch.
31:32But, you know, I have the ZAP model that I've referenced, which is appropriately named the Zachary's and adjusted prospect model.
31:38Nice. And so the ZAP model loved, absolutely loved Jordan Tyson.
31:41He had a score above 90, which obviously, you know, doesn't make any sense to anyone that hasn't consumed anything ZAP model related.
31:48But a score above 90 is where we see legitimately elite assets.
31:51But, JJ, go hang on for a second. I'm going to interrupt you here for a second here because I think because
31:57I've studied your work and I know it, but not all of my audience does.
32:01Quickly, you don't have to get into the nerd math on the math behind the ZAP model.
32:06But give a couple of examples of like, hey, last year, the ZAP model identified A, B and C.
32:11And this is who they are, because I think because I know the ZAP model has been very successful over the last handful of years.
32:18So I think my audience would love to hear sort of that.
32:22And then, you know, for them to understand, oh, Jordan Tyson scored over 90 on the ZAP model.
32:27That's interesting. Yeah. So a good, you know, just like TLDR of what it is, is that it looks at collegiate production
32:33and it's not just like receptions in yards. It's pretty detailed, like market share type numbers.
32:37And they're adjusted for things like age and, you know, when these guys break out and the program strength that these guys are playing at.
32:44And then it inputs draft capital as well, because draft capital is really important.
32:48If a guy gets drafted early, he's probably going to get more opportunity.
32:52He's probably talented as well, because these teams are using, you know, a lot of dollars and a lot of, you know, brainpower to draft these guys early.
33:00So what it basically does is that it spits out a score then for a player.
33:04And that's associated with, you know, you can look at hit rates historically of guys, you know, in that range.
33:10But like last year, for instance, we had a pretty good wide receiver class overall, at least at the top.
33:15You know, you had Teddero McMillan, Emeka Ibuka, Matthew Golden and Luther Burden.
33:19The model was obsessed with Luther Burden to the point where it ranked him above or at least close to Emeka Ibuka
33:25and very, very close to Teddero McMillan, despite the draft capital differences.
33:28And it didn't like Matthew Golden, just to give you an example.
33:32And there's going to be misses. Don't get me wrong.
33:34I get plenty of stuff wrong within the zap model.
33:37But overall, it's definitely a model that, you know, I can rely on and feel confident about at this point.
33:43And it loved Jordan Tyson. I like Carnell Tate, too.
33:46But it did like Jordan Tyson more than Tate.
33:48And historically, if you look at wide receivers drafted in the wide receiver 19 to wide receiver 42 range since 2014, who
33:54have been rookies who had a zap score above that 90 number, it's just elite player after elite player.
34:00It's Malik Neighbors, JSN, Drake London, Jamar Chase, Jalen Waddell, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins.
34:05And collectively, those players average 14.2 PPR points per game as rookies, and only two of them failed to outperform ADP expectation.
34:11And one of those misses, Amari Cooper, fell short by just half a point per game.
34:15He was just being drafted a couple rounds higher than where Jordan Tyson's being drafted right now.
34:20So his expectations were just higher. And, you know, like I know that people are worried about Chris Alave being there.
34:26I see this as they're very, very good match together.
34:29Chris Alave is a good man beater. Jordan Tyson's a good zone beater.
34:32I think we could see Tyson get a lot more of that underneath stuff.
34:36People forget that Alave is very, very good down the field.
34:39I mean, that's where his bread is buttered, right?
34:42And that's what he did in college. And he started, you know, that's how he started out his NFL career.
34:48It's a little bit different last year, largely because they didn't have an alternative in that offense.
34:52But I think, you know, those two combined, like, I just think that the ADP gap between Tyson and Alave should be
34:58a little bit closer than what we're seeing right now.
35:01And then this is a Kellen Moore offense in his six years as OC.
35:05He's never ranked outside the top 10 and plays run per game.
35:08And then last year as head coach in an offense that wasn't the most efficient in the world, as we know, they
35:15still ranked 11th in plays per game. So you're going to get a lot of volume in that offense.
35:20I think the target tree is going to be pretty narrow.
35:23And I think Jordan Tyson is a very special talent.
35:26So I will be drafting a lot of him this year.
35:29Yeah, you and I are on the same page.
35:31I'm high on the Saints offense overall. You know, I mean, like once he took over the start of last year, Tyler Shuck was sixth in passing yards.
35:39The Saints offense was first in pace of play.
35:42Every move they made this offseason, I like. I think there's a big difference.
35:46People, I always talk about this, how we forget that these players are human beings.
35:50And that, you know, for all the numbers we talk about, these are human beings playing these games.
35:55And so there's a big difference for Tyler Shuck, who last year came in, you know, last year in the spring, it
36:01was just like, wait, we took Tyler Shuck over Shadur Sanders?
36:04What? And he's like trying to find his way on the field and he's not sure if he's even starting, you know, to this year.
36:11He knows he's the man. It's his job. Kellen Moore spent the offseason saying, OK, what does Tyler Shuck do well?
36:17What doesn't he do well? Let's design this offense for Tyler Shuck.
36:20So I'm a big believer in Jordan Tyson. I'm at 65 overall.
36:23You have him at 62. We both have him at wide receiver 31.
36:27He's currently going outside the top 81 on ADP.
36:30So you and I are both about two rounds higher on Jordan Tyson.
36:33We're big fans. By the way, while you were talking, JJ, I texted my wife and I said, tonight, we're exploring the ZAP model.
36:40So just exciting stuff happening in the Berry household tonight.
36:43I appreciate that laugh. One last guy for me here on the ADP is Ramondre Stevenson.
36:47Boring, snoozing Ramondre Stevenson, right? We keep hearing about Travion Henderson struggling in pass pro.
36:51And over his final nine games, including the playoffs, this is a guy who averaged over 17 fantasy points per game, over 92 yards from scrimmage.
36:59And I think that we forget kind of the historical data of Josh McDaniels likes multiple running backs.
37:04You know, throughout the majority of his career as a play caller, he has used multiple running backs.
37:09And so Ramondre Stevenson, who is going well behind Travion Henderson, I think he's the better value.
37:13I think he's more versatile. Like, in a world where Travion Henderson gets hurt, Ramondre can catch passes.
37:18Ramondre can play all three downs. In a world where Ramondre gets hurt, I just don't see them using Travion Henderson for 20 touches a game.
37:26They'll add a back or they'll use some. So I get the explosive nature of Travion Henderson.
37:30I get how brilliant he is. But, like, we're talking about ADP.
37:34So at cost, I just think everyone is so enamored with the skill set of Travion Henderson.
37:39And they're so snoozed by Ramondre Stevenson. I'm like, guys, you're going to look up and Ramondre Stevenson is going to have 200 touches this year.
37:46Like, you know what I mean? Yeah, you know, I mean, it's just, yeah, he's just, he's boring.
37:51But, like, you're going to look up and he's going to outperform ADP.
37:54Yeah, it's always hard to be lower on an explosive player, right?
37:58Which is what Travion Henderson is. Like, we saw it last year, that Tampa Bay game.
38:02I mean, it's still, it's in everyone's memory, right?
38:05But I couldn't agree more from the standpoint of, like, where these guys are being drafted.
38:09I also think that this is sort of a really good glimpse of how the market has gotten kind of sharper through the years.
38:16And I say that agreeing with you about Ramondre.
38:18But historically, like, five years ago, these ADPs would be flipped.
38:21You would have seen Ramondre going way ahead of Travion Henderson.
38:25And, you know, Henderson being the guy who obviously they didn't lean on in the playoffs.
38:29And, you know, people would be scared because he burned them last year, all that stuff.
38:33But I agree that right now, where they're at, Ramondre is the better value in that backfield.
38:38And the other thing to keep in mind is that I think naturally people think of, like, the smaller sort of, like,
38:44you know, elusive pass-catching back, if you want to consider that Travion Henderson, would be the negative game script back.
38:50You know, the third down back, the hurry up back.
38:53But that's not really the case in this backfield.
38:55And this team, they were, they had a very easy schedule last year, as we know.
39:00I know that we shouldn't bring that up because Patriots fans get really upset when you do.
39:04But they had an easy schedule, right? Their percentage of plays while trailing was dead last in the league.
39:10So they played ahead more than any other team in football.
39:13And if you look at their schedule this year by projected win total, if you look at any sports book, it's much, much more difficult.
39:20And if that's the case, we'll probably see a little bit more passing from the offense.
39:24That's good for a Drake May, for an A.J.
39:27Brown. But I also think that could mean more Ramondre Stevenson on the field because they want him in those pass-pro situations.
39:33That's another thing that I'm a little bit worried about with Travion Henderson.
39:36Yeah, I think all that is very, very fair.
39:39All right, you have, this one's a polarizing guy in the fantasy community, I believe.
39:43Quarterback Malik Willis. Some people are like, oh, he's going to be fantasy gold because of all the rushing.
39:48Other people are like, this guy can't play. And even if he could play, he's thrown to absolutely no one.
39:54So talk to me about Malik Willis. I am a QB 20.
39:57You have a QB 18. But in the overall, you and I are basically in lockstep.
40:02You have it 119 overall. I'm at 122. So current ADP is 143.
40:05Yeah, and that's it, right? It's why not? Why would you not go after this profile in a standard single quarterback draft?
40:12And even if you want to draft a guy, another quarterback that maybe has more of a floor, like a Bo Nix
40:18or something like that, that you feel a little bit more comfortable with, you can pair Malik Willis with him.
40:23And to me, that's fine. But in three Green Bay starts, 58 rushing yards per game, a rushing touchdown per game, that's
40:2911.8 fantasy points per game via rushing. We've had 25 seasons from quarterbacks with seven or more points per game via rushing,
40:36which I think Malik Willis is almost a moral lock to hit that as long as he's healthy.
40:41So seven or more points per game via the ground, while those quarterbacks threw the ball 300 or more times in the seasons.
40:47There's 25 seasons where we've seen this. So they started a good number of games, all while getting it done with their legs.
40:53Of those 25 seasons, only three of those quarterbacks ranked outside the top 10 in points per game.
40:58All of them ranked inside the top 20, which is obviously ahead of where Malik Willis is being drafted right now.
41:04So I think that what we're looking at with Willis is sort of the argument that we made for years with Justin
41:10Fields, where we're like, yeah, there's going to be a floor there because there's very much questionable passing.
41:15But at least with Fields, like even like as his starting career kind of started to dwindle, we were still drafting him
41:22knowing that the arm really wasn't there and he wasn't the most accurate passer in the world.
41:26What if Malik Willis is actually good as a thrower?
41:29All of a sudden, you can start to see a scenario where, yes, I mean, I think like you've been doing this
41:35even longer than me, but I don't remember seeing a wide receiver room look as bad as the Miami wide receiver room entering a season.
41:42So I understand that the weapons certainly are not there.
41:45But at the same time, you know, if he is just a much better passer and thrower of the ball, I don't
41:51think we can really say either way right now because we have such a small sample of it and he's gotten better at least.
41:58But I don't think we have a big enough sample to say either way.
42:02But if he's even like, you know, it's like a 70th percentile outcome from a passing perspective in this offense, he could
42:08be a top 10 quarterback in fantasy. And it sounds so crazy, but I just read you those numbers and the numbers
42:14are there because rushing is a cheat code in fantasy bottom line.
42:17And so I think he's he's arguably the easiest player to draft in season long, because if it doesn't work out for
42:24whatever reason, you are able to make up for it more easily at the quarterback position than any other position in fantasy.
42:30So you just got to go for the upside.
42:32And I think Malik Willis has that upside. Cobra Kyger says Green Bay should have kept Willis and traded love there.
42:38I said it Cobra Kyger, of course, crazy. Um, uh, even JJ, who loves Malik Willis, like I love my wife, uh,
42:44in a Parker Washington uniform doesn't think that, but I agree with you.
42:48The upside there is just so huge. I always like the best example ever is Tim Tebow.
42:53Tim Tebow was a top 10 fantasy quarterback on a points per game basis.
42:56Guy threw six passes a game. Wasn't any good.
42:59You know, it was a huge part of debate shows for a long time.
43:03Like if you can run, I mean, Justin Fields is a great, you know, recent comp and I appreciate you talking about,
43:09uh, how long I've been doing this JJ nice way to call me old without calling me old.
43:14I appreciate that. Wait, I'm on canal too. Yeah.
43:17I'm on canal too. I know all these young kids.
43:19All right. Uh, we got about nine minutes left in the show.
43:23So I'll go, I'll give you one last one here.
43:25Um, it's interesting. So we talked about Mike Evans, uh, earlier and we talked about that offense and just, you know, Baker
43:32basically had a bad year with all the off target stuff.
43:35But I think the hate has gone too far on Chris Godwin.
43:38His current ADP is like 97, 98. He's going as wide receiver 41.
43:42Chris Godwin's going outside the top 40. I'm at, I haven't 75 overall.
43:45Again, he's basically barely going inside the top 100.
43:48I haven't 75 overall wide receiver 35. In the last two years with Mike Evans off the field, Chris Godwin was targeted on 30.
43:54Sorry. I'm 23% of his routes. Um, and since Baker Mayfield became the starting quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tampa Bay
44:01ranked sixth in slot targets, whether it's, you know, Liam Cohen calling the plays or just that offense, it's basically remained the
44:07same over the last couple of years since Baker started, uh, or Canales, whoever there's six in slot targets.
44:12They like throwing to the slot. There is a reason why Chris Godwin got paid the amount of money he did.
44:18Um, second year removed from the, uh, injury. So we should see a healthier version of Chris Godwin.
44:23Am I saying he's going to be back to top 10 fantasy wide receiver, Chris Godwin?
44:27I do not. But while we like a Bucca and by the way, I have a very good Buccaneers source who tells
44:33me Ted Hurst is absolutely killing it in camp.
44:36Yeah. So I think there's a chance we could see Hurst over McMillan as the, on the other side, but you've still
44:42got Chris Godwin in the middle of field on a, on a contract year with Baker Mayfield.
44:47And I just, I think the hate goes too far.
44:50We like this offense and there's a non-zero chance, JJ, that Chris Godwin is the number one wide receiver on one of the better offenses in the NFL.
44:57And he's not being drafted anywhere near it. Yeah.
45:00I think it's a, it's a possibility for sure.
45:03You know, uh, the last time we saw him healthy before that devastating injury, he was annihilating fantasy football.
45:08I mean, top five wide receiver, 27% target share in that offense.
45:11Uh, and like you said, now there's no Mike Evans and I love a Mecca Bucca.
45:16Um, you know, I, I think there's definite like crazy, crazy breakout potential for him.
45:20If he is playing that zero, you know, in that Zach Robinson offense, but, uh, Godwin, you know, should be very steady
45:26and very reliable out of the slot. And this is an offense like, like we talked about earlier with Mike Evans, uh,
45:32where the catchable targets rate for these, these pass catchers was just horrible, um, throughout because Baker just had a bad year last year.
45:39I think it's really easy. You know, this is one of those scenarios where yes, I'm, I'm nerdy and I look at
45:45numbers and you know, I, I judge fantasy production and try to forecast through numbers, but you have to give those numbers
45:51context and contextually for Chris Godwin super banged up last year coming off a devastating injury.
45:55I think that we can tell ourselves a story as to why he will be a lot better here in 2026 than he was in 2025.
46:03Yeah. Again, I don't think he gets back to being elite.
46:06And I think if you had to place a bet on who's the leading, uh, pass catcher for the Buccaneers and fantasy
46:12points, you and I would agree on, on a Bucca, but I, there's a non-zero chance that Godwin becomes that guy.
46:18And again, just where he's going in drafts, wide receiver 41, I'm at wide receiver 35.
46:22So I'm, I'm like two rounds higher than a consensus on ADP 75 overall.
46:26He's going 98. All right. It is a, it is time for last call.
46:30Um, as Ryan Oswitz of Baker has something to prove, it is a contract year for Baker.
46:35I think he's going to be chucking it. Believe me.
46:38Uh, he's not going to be handing off. All right.
46:40It's last call. So JJ, who do you have for the most regular season receiving touchdowns?
46:45Curious who you think, um, comes through with that title.
46:48I'm going to double down. All right. I'm going, I'm going with Mike Evans.
46:52Let's go. I, you know, if, if Evans is healthy, I genuinely think that he could play, you know, similar to the copy made.
46:58Like if there is a, this year, Devante Adams, it's gotta be Mike Evans, right?
47:02Where he's going to this new offense. They, they need that red zone presence, especially with George Kittle being banged up, especially
47:09with Ricky Pierce, all sideline, you know, I think design dribbling is, I mean, he's a big bodied receiver.
47:14I had some question marks about him as a prospect, but, um, you know, I think that it's very easy to fall
47:20in love with, with rookie hype this time of year.
47:23And, and, you know, when we look back on the season, we're like, yeah, that was a pretty good rookie season, but
47:29it wasn't, you know, so much like we thought it was going to be back in August.
47:34Um, but with Evans, you know, this is a Shanahan system that traditionally has seen really high, uh, you know, rates of,
47:40of throwing in the, in the red zone. Um, it's, it's an offense that Brock Purdy continues to, to, to ruin the
47:46nerds out there and buck these touchdown rate trends.
47:48Uh, and I've just, the last couple of years, I've just given up and I I'm, I'm just like, I think Brock
47:55Purdy is just a very undervalued player, fantasy asset, et cetera.
47:58Um, and I, you know, I already mentioned all the down the field stuff.
48:02So I think we're going to look at Evans and say he can score outside the red zone because of the matching
48:08that I talked about earlier with Brock Purdy being so good at throwing that ball down the field.
48:13But then on top of that, um, they might want to save CMC a little bit close to the goal line.
48:19And if CMC does get banged up, then all of a sudden you're relying on very questionable running backs behind him at the goal line.
48:26So they might just throw the ball even more.
48:28And, and Mike Evans is just the de facto best red zone threat on that team.
48:33So I could see a scenario where, where he's the guy.
48:36And I wanted to, you know, dig a little bit deeper for, for this one, as opposed to just going with an obvious one.
48:42I appreciate, I'm going to go with AJ Brown at 15 to one.
48:46Uh, you know, there's a, we talked about, as you just mentioned, we think the schedule is going to be a lot harder for this.
48:53The Patriots are going to be throwing a lot more.
48:56AJ Brown is, is the alpha and more importantly, something to prove with a chip off his shoulder, uh, as well, big red zone threat.
49:03I know they got, you know, freaking Hunter Henry there, but I could just see AJ Brown having a, uh, one last on the man kind of year.
49:10I want to show all those guys in Philadelphia.
49:13Don't worry. I'm not reading the book on the sideline anymore.
49:16Drake may finally getting an alpha wide receiver as well.
49:19And we expect, you know, another, uh, another positive step forward with AJ Brown, Josh McDaniels having a toy like AJ Brown
49:25to play with all due respect to, you know, Stefan Diggs and some of the other guys he had there.
49:31Right. But AJ Brown is going to be the best wide receiver.
49:34Drake may's had in his career, his short career, and it's not particularly close.
49:38So, um, I don't know. I just give me some AJ Brown and kind of a F you Philadelphia year.
49:43I think AJ is, uh, you know, is, uh, definitely a guy that, uh, gets motivated.
49:48So that's, uh, that's my pick again. I didn't want to go obvious.
49:51The favorites, just so you guys know, Jamar Chase at plus 650, Devante at, uh, seven to one.
49:56I'm on Ross also seven to one. JSN is eight to one.
50:00And then, uh, and then my guy eight CD lamb.
50:03I call him eights. He's nine to one as well.
50:05So, uh, let's see. Valiant Vincent says Barry skipped the stories today.
50:09So we got done in a normal amount of time.
50:12LOL. I am trying to keep these, uh, a little bit tighter.
50:15A good, uh, okay, here we go. Here's one from Adam Smith.
50:18F Mary kill the new England running back room, the green Bay running back room, the Denver running back room.
50:24Well, that's a good one, JJ. I'll give that one to you.
50:27F Mary kill new England, green Bay wide receiver room, Denver running back room.
50:31I will. I will. Uh, I will marry the green Bay wide receiver room.
50:35Cause I think that there's a couple of really good assets there that I want to keep around for a while.
50:41I will F the new England running back room and probably kill the Denver running back room.
50:46And with that being said, we know Sean Payton's backfields have been very lucrative from a fantasy football perspective.
50:51Historically. Um, I'm not, I'm not like all the way out, but that's probably the direction I'd go in here.
50:56I will say I like Jonah Coleman. Jonah Coleman is one of my favorite sleepers this year.
51:01I like him a lot. I think second half of the year, I think unfortunately probably JK Dobbins gets banged up.
51:07I think they've seen what they've seen out of, uh, RJ Harvey.
51:10And I think there's a scenario where no pun intended.
51:13Jonah Coleman takes the lead job and runs with it over the second half of the year for Denver.
51:18So I do kind of like that as a, uh, as a late round flyer, JJ, um, we will check out everything
51:25at late round.com, your late round podcast, your late round prospect guide, everything.
51:28You are the man. I appreciate what we will follow you on all forms of social media at late round QB.
51:34Thank you, JJ, my friend. It is, uh, it is closed in time, which means you don't have to go home, but you can't stay here.
51:41We'll see you tomorrow. Peace out.