Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry artwork

The Best Pick in Every Round + Week 1 Waivers with Scott Barrett

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

54 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 8, 2026
Published
Tue, September 8, 2026
28
Player insights
26
Players mentioned
Topics
Justin HerbertMalik NabersAdonai MitchellAmon-Ra St. BrownBijan RobinsonCarson BeckChristian WatsonColston LovelandDavid MontgomeryDe'Von AchaneDeVonta SmithDrake LondonGeorge KittleIsaiah Likely
Player analysis

Player insights

28

Adonai Mitchell

PositiveBreakout51:05

Scott Barrett highlights Adonai Mitchell as an elite separator based on his 'average separation score' data. While acknowledging past struggles with drops and fumbles, Barrett notes that Mitchell's deep-route profile aligns perfectly with Geno Smith's strengths, suggesting significant upside on a bad team.

Insight page

Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveUsage13:53

Matthew Berry highlights Amon-Ra St. Brown as a high-floor, high-upside mid-round wide receiver. St. Brown is the only wide receiver to average at least 18.5 fantasy points in each of the last three seasons and led the NFL with 34 red zone targets in 2025.

Insight page

Bijan Robinson

PositiveProjection12:17

Scott Barrett views Bijan Robinson as a top-tier pick, noting he has a '1,000-1,000 season in the range of outcomes.' While Barrett prefers Gibbs at the 1.01, he would take Robinson 100% of the time if drafting at the 1.02.

Insight page

Carson Beck

PositiveRole47:44

Matthew Berry is bullish on Carson Beck, having spent 100% of his FAAB on him in a deep superflex league. Berry believes Beck will eventually take over as the Cardinals' starting quarterback this season, noting that the team likely didn't draft him just to wait until next year to address the position.

Insight page

Christian Watson

PositiveRole33:48

Christian Watson is a high-upside target who is moving from the X to the Z receiver position, allowing him to run more intermediate routes. In 19 career games with at least a 20% target share, he averages 16 fantasy points per game. He finished as a top-12 wide receiver over the final seven games of last season.

Insight page

Colston Loveland

PositiveBreakout27:31

Colston Loveland is a favorite round four pick for Scott Barrett. Over his final eight games, he commanded a 25% target share. Analysts are high on his potential to become a top-three tight end, with some comparing his late-season breakout to Puka Nacua's production.

Insight page

David Montgomery

PositiveRole28:44

Scott Barrett views David Montgomery as a safe, high-floor pick in round five with fringe RB1 potential. Despite a 40% snap share last year, the team intends for him to be the bell cow in a high-scoring offense with favorable game scripts and red-zone opportunities.

Insight page

De'Von Achane

PositiveProjection14:43

Scott Barrett considers Devon Achane the best pick in round two, citing his top-six fantasy points per game finish over three straight years and his status as a target leader in a weak wide receiver room. Barrett dismisses concerns about the offense's pace, noting Achane's elite efficiency.

Insight page

DeVonta Smith

PositiveBreakout22:56

Matthew Berry identifies Devonta Smith as his ride-or-die pick in round three, projecting a monster season with top-five wide receiver upside. With AJ Brown's 28% target share vacated, Smith is poised for a massive role; he has been targeted on 29% of his routes when Brown is off the field, a rate comparable to Puka Nacua and Ja'Marr Chase.

Insight page

Drake London

PositiveProjection16:21

Matthew Berry notes that Drake London is a must-start in all leagues regardless of the quarterback situation. Berry suggests a slight bump for London when Michael Penix is under center, as Penix is more apt to look downfield compared to Tua Tagovailoa.

Insight page

George Kittle

PositiveValue41:20

Scott Barrett identifies George Kittle as the best fantasy pick in round nine, noting that over the last two years, Kittle has averaged the same fantasy points per game as Justin Jefferson. While there are health concerns, Barrett suggests pairing him with other tight ends like Isaiah Likely, Dallas Goedert, Dalton Kincaid, or Mark Andrews.

Insight page

Isaiah Likely

NegativeRole25:34

While some beat reporters suggest Isaiah Likely is the clear number two option in the Giants' passing attack behind Malik Nabers, Matthew Berry notes that his coaching source was lukewarm on Likely, preferring Malachi Fields instead.

Insight page

Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveProjection11:42

Scott Barrett identifies Jahmyr Gibbs as the best pick in round one, forecasting a 'vintage LaDainian Tomlinson-esque season.' Barrett notes that in games without David Montgomery, Gibbs averages 27.4 fantasy points per game, making him a massive edge pick.

Insight page

Jonah Coleman

PositiveRole53:01

Matthew Berry urges managers to add Jonah Coleman, who is available in over 50% of leagues. Berry projects Coleman to become the starting running back for the Broncos over the second half of the season.

Insight page

Jonathon Brooks

PositiveSleeper38:46

Jonathan Brooks is a high-upside target in round eight. While currently dealing with a minor injury, he has the talent to win the starting job in Dave Canales' offense, which has historically produced valuable fantasy running backs.

Insight page

Josh Downs

PositiveRole42:17

Matthew Berry advocates for Josh Downs in round nine, dismissing concerns about Keenan Allen's age and injury history. Berry notes that Downs will play in two-wide receiver sets and was targeted on over 25% of his routes when Michael Pittman was off the field last year, giving him a clear path to being the leading wide receiver on a high-powered Colts offense.

Insight page

Justin Herbert

PositiveProjection40:10

Justin Herbert is a prime target for a career-best fantasy season under Mike McDaniel. He has a high floor, having finished lower than QB13 in points per game only once in his career. His increased usage of his legs last year adds to his fantasy appeal.

Insight page
PositiveProjection40:19

Matthew Berry is very high on Justin Herbert, noting he has finished lower than QB13 in points per game only once in his career. With Mike McDaniel calling plays, Berry believes Herbert is primed for the best fantasy season of his career, citing his increased usage of his legs last year and projecting top-three to top-four quarterback upside.

Insight page

Kenneth Walker III

PositiveProjection18:21

Matthew Berry ranks Kenneth Walker III as his RB6, noting that when Walker receives at least 18 touches, he averages over 18 fantasy points per game. Berry believes a finish as the overall RB1 is within his range of outcomes given the team's intent to use him more in the passing game.

Insight page

Luther Burden

PositiveBreakout30:04

Luther Burden is a target for a breakout season in the Bears' offense. Despite missing some preseason time due to injury, he is expected to be ready for Week 1. He recorded the best rookie season yards per route run since Odell Beckham Jr. and is a key piece of the high-powered Bears attack.

Insight page

Malachi Fields

PositiveSleeper24:34

Matthew Berry suggests picking up Malachi Fields on waivers, noting he could emerge as the Giants' number two wide receiver. Berry cites a connection with a coach who has been raving about Fields, making him a strong roster option while Malik Nabers works back to full health.

Insight page

Malik Nabers

PositiveValue20:07

Despite injury concerns, Malik Nabers is a high-upside target in round three. If 100% healthy, he would be a first-round pick. In his last seven full games, he averaged 118 yards and 22.7 fantasy points per game. Even if his explosiveness is slightly hampered, his massive projected target share makes him a potential league-winning edge pick in the second half of the season.

Insight page
PositiveValue20:10

Scott Barrett identifies Malik Nabers as his favorite pick in round three. Barrett notes that if Nabers were 100% healthy, he would be a first-round pick, citing his production of 118 yards per game over his last seven full games.

Insight page

Malik Willis

PositiveSleeper46:56

Scott Barrett names Malik Willis his number one must-draft quarterback at cost due to his hyper-mobility. Despite concerns about the offense, Barrett compares his potential to what fantasy managers hoped for from Justin Fields, emphasizing his significant upside across the full season.

Insight page

Mike Evans

NegativeValue35:22

Mike Evans is a preferred round seven pick due to his role in a Kyle Shanahan offense with Brock Purdy. While injury risk exists, it is baked into his ADP. Evans has a strong track record of playing through injuries and remains an elite 50-50 ball winner.

Insight page

Parker Washington

PositiveValue31:33

Parker Washington is Scott Barrett's favorite pick in round six. In the Liam Coen offense, the slot receiver is the alpha, as evidenced by Coen's history with Cooper Kupp and Wan'Dale Robinson. Washington showed proof of concept in his final five games last year and is a perfect stylistic fit for Trevor Lawrence.

Insight page

Rhamondre Stevenson

PositiveRole37:22

Rhamondre Stevenson is a clear-cut starter and a value pick in round seven. He ranked third in fantasy points per touch among running backs with at least 100 touches last year. Despite the presence of other backs, he is the primary option in the Patriots' offense.

Insight page

Tee Higgins

PositiveValue26:10

Scott Barrett highlights Tee Higgins as an extreme value in round four. In games where Joe Burrow has played over the last two years, Higgins has produced WR6-level numbers in targets, fantasy points, and expected fantasy points per game.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

647
0:00Well, it's noon on YouTube, but it's 5 o'clock somewhere, so that means the Happy Hour Bar is officially open.
0:06What's up? Happy former Labor Day weekend. Hope you guys had an awesome Labor Day weekend.
0:11My name is Matthew Berry, your friendly neighborhood bartender here, and we've got a great show coming up today.
0:17So week one is always a little bit weird, right?
0:20Because you've got drafts still going on. I'm literally in three different drafts tonight, including the inaugural Fantasy Football Happy Hour regular season.
0:26The regular's listener league. Me and 17 of the regulars drafting tonight.
0:30We're doing a guillotine league. Of course, guillotineleagues.com, open, free.
0:33If you want to play for money, we take no fee.
0:36Every dollar that goes into your entry fee is into the prize pool.
0:40That is not the case with anywhere else you play for money.
0:44But we take no fees at guillotineleagues.com. If you just want to try it, if you want to just jump into a league for free, please do so.
0:52We have leagues going on all today, all tomorrow.
0:55Honestly, throughout the season, because that's the great thing with guillotine leagues is you can do a draft every single week.
1:01Anyway, so I've actually got three different drafts tonight.
1:04I've got another one tomorrow. So for people that are still, there's people drafting this week along.
1:09I actually have a draft on Thursday night as well.
1:12So still five drafts left for me, left for your boy, Matty.
1:16And then, but then also we've got games. We've got, we got a game Wednesday night.
1:21We got a game Thursday night. We got games this weekend.
1:24We got a Monday night game coming up. So lots to get to.
1:28It's always kind of a weird week as well, but helping you navigate it throughout Fantasy Life Plus.
1:33You can use the promo code Barry, B-E-R-R-Y for 10% off Fantasy Life Plus.
1:37That gives you 37 different tools, award winning tools that help you win your league, your DFS, your DFS 2.0, your bets, whatever it is you play.
1:45We've got tools that'll make it a lot easier, including our Fantasy HQ tool, which allows you to sync your leagues across every site.
1:53Wherever you play, you're able to see all of your scores and your leagues and your lineups and waiver moves.
1:59You should make trades. You should make all in one spot.
2:02So it's really awesome. It's really amazing. So highly recommend you guys check that out.
2:07All right. You know what? And my next guest, I'm very excited about my guest today.
2:11And yo, you know what? You know who drinks for free?
2:15That's the last thing I forgot here before I bring in my guest here.
2:19Today, who drinks for free? And it's with an asterisk because it's apple juice.
2:23It's my nephew, Eli. My nephew, Eli Barry. He had his bar mitzvah this weekend.
2:28So congratulations to Eli. Again, he's only 13, so he can only drink apple juice.
2:32But all the apple juice he wants for free at the Happy Hour Bar.
2:36Shout out to Eli on his bar mitzvah. Congratulations to him.
2:40All right. It was an awesome weekend. Here we go now.
2:43Now, time to bring in my guest, Scott Barrett.
2:46Of course, we all follow him on Twitter, at Scott Barrett DFB.
2:49A lot of times, people that listen to this show, Scott, and you are the CEO of fantasypoints.com.
2:55And I think a lot of people that know you, and I include myself in this, a lot of people that know
3:01you are like, wait, that guy's a CEO? But somehow, someway, and I have to assume it's entirely because of the work
3:08of Graham Barfield, who I love and adore. But somehow, someway, under your leadership, fantasypoints continues to grow and thrive and does a great job.
3:15Fantasypoints.com and the fantasypoints data suite. You guys just released your data suite 2.0 the other day.
3:20This morning. So congratulations on that. But here's what I'll say about Scott, and then we'll get into it.
3:26Because coming up, like I said, we're going to go through our perfect draft for people that are drafting tonight or tomorrow.
3:33And then we're also going to do week one waivers.
3:36But a lot of people hear me on this show, Scott, complain about the Dynasty League you and I are in.
3:42It's actually called the DFB League after you. Because this is the Dynasty League that I'm in with Scott and Graham and
3:49a bunch of other people in the industry, all really smart people, where we have to draft rookies before the NFL draft.
3:55So we have no idea where these people are going to go.
3:59And it's 12 teams, 33-man rosters, I think four IR spots.
4:02As the damn Graham TV says, Scott equals the ginger Jesus.
4:06Have you heard that one before? Ginger Jesus? No, I'm not a redhead.
4:09I do drink ginger tea every night. Love J-Mo and ginger.
4:13Yeah, it's fair. Scott, exhausted Texans fan who's in our Listener League.
4:16He's one of our regulars. Wants to see, yeah, let's see.
4:20Good head of lettuce on Scott. A lot of people when you see with a bushy beard, it's like because they don't have anything up top.
4:27They're just trying to prove they can grow hair.
4:30I'm balled up there and balled down here. No hints as to if I'm balled anywhere else, boys.
4:36But what I will say is that Scott Barrett, it's got a good head of lettuce there as well.
4:41Anyway, we're in our Dynasty League together and it's an intense league.
4:45It's a lot of fun. It's just, it's a, sorry in advance.
4:48It's a batshit crazy league too. So I have to say something about you, Matthew.
4:53Like, you know, I'm really one of your biggest fans.
4:56I've always been. I feel like you're, you're like Sigmund Freud, you know, Sigmund Freud invented the whole field of psychology, revolution, all these amazing ideas.
5:04And now he's taken for granted. It's all, yeah, he had some weird theories about, you know, sons and their moms, something like that.
5:11Right. And your, your shows are wildly entertaining. And so, yeah, it's an honor and privilege to be here, by the way.
5:18But one thing I think the folks at home don't know is you love fantasy football.
5:22I don't know that there's anyone who loves fantasy football more than Matthew Berry.
5:27I don't know that there's anyone as competitive with more gaffe than Matthew Perry.
5:31Like the fights, the debates that we've had in this DFB league.
5:34Like you are, you are looking at everyone's starting lineup on Sunday morning.
5:38Like, I don't know how you have the time to care about this, like little $50 buy-in league, my Scott Barrett invitational.
5:45And, but boy, do you. And it's, and it's every year it's you or me winning the championship.
5:50And so I could also say you're a great fantasy football player as well.
5:55Well, wow. That's, thank you, Scott. That's incredibly gracious of you and nice of you to say.
6:00And it's going to make it tougher for me to make fun of you throughout this show.
6:05I'm still going to do it. It's just a larger challenge for me now that I'm going to have to navigate.
6:11But no, listen, you know, I think you're great.
6:14I enjoy the show and you're right. I've told this story many times and we've got to get to it, everything like this.
6:21But it's as Martin's world says, bro, how old are those headphones he's wearing?
6:25Those, those look like Matthew Berry era headphones, you know, because I started when I had to do when, you know, I
6:32had to crank the microphone, everything like that. How old are those headphones?
6:35Are those just old school? Like what are, what are they?
6:39I don't know if you have to bleep this out, but I'm obsessed with these headphones.
6:44They're cost supporter pros. They're like $30. My friend who's a DJ said they're the best bang for your buck headphones on the market.
6:51It's like Dr. Dre beats quality, but $30 with a lifetime warranty.
6:54So the new thing, Matthew, I don't know if you, all the NFL players, earbuds are out.
7:00Wireless headphones are out. It's, it's, you need wired headphones.
7:03Yeah. Yeah. Well, you know me, I'm always on top of the trends, but anyway, it's incredibly kind of you to say,
7:09but I always feel like because I'm, I'm, and I'm not using this about myself, but just that I feel like every
7:16league I'm in because I'm quote Matthew Berry, that I have a target on my back.
7:21And that I, I have to care. I have to care because, you know, and maybe not necessarily like in our particular
7:27league where it's a bunch of industry analysts who are really smart and successful in their own right.
7:33And so it's like, they're not like, Ooh, I'm in a league with whatever.
7:37But like for the most part, when I'm in leagues, like I, they're excited to be in a league with me and
7:43I want to give them a great experience. And so like the very quick story I'll tell is I did a friends
7:50and family draft with my kids, like me and like my Connor, who's now 22 when he was eight.
7:56And I've written about this and like, you know, my wife played with one of my other sons and my wife's ex-husband played with the other son.
8:04And, and so like we did it with like their friends and their dads and you know, whatever.
8:09It's like an 18 kids, friends and family league.
8:12Right. And like, I just printed out T, you know, cheat sheets and they were all going to do it.
8:18And like, it was just like, whatever, the simplest thing in the world.
8:22Like, like, you know, we're here in Connecticut. And so like Eli Manning went like in the second round because, you know,
8:28the kids had heard of Eli Manning. He's playing for the Giants.
8:32All right, fine. So it's a super dumb free league for eight-year-old kids, you know, that I've just set together.
8:38So it's something for them to do because they, you know, know what I do for a living.
8:44And at one point in the middle of the draft, you know, and I'm not paying attention.
8:49My kid's doing whatever he wants on the thing.
8:51You know, Connor, little eight-year-old Connor comes to me and he says, hey, you know, Matthew, we're going to, listen, we're going to win this league, right?
8:59Because you're my partner. Now I, now I got to win this league.
9:03Now I got to go crush a bunch of eight-year-olds.
9:06Now I got to grind the waiver wire and, you know, and, and try to, you know, negotiate, you know, an eight-year-old
9:13out of his first round pick, which I did, Scott.
9:16I'm not proud of it. I'm not proud of waking up at 3.30 in the morning to grind the waiver wire with
9:23a bunch of eight-year-olds, but I did it. I did it.
9:26So my kid could win. And we did. And that's just the sort of special psychopath you are.
9:31You know, Tom Brady has that chip on his shoulder.
9:34He has to prove everyone wrong. And, and, and that's you too, except instead of going up against 300 pound defensive linemen, you're going up against eight-year-olds.
9:42That's what it is. Those eight-year-olds learned a lesson.
9:45I'll tell you that much. Don't mess with Matthew Berry.
9:48That's right. All right. Let's get into it. These are the best fantasy picks in round one.
9:53We're usually in general consensus ADP. You know, you may say, like, this guy's, you know, anyway, general consensus ADP, like as
10:00the, the quiche monster says, love you, but shut up and show ankles.
10:04You know what? Just because you told me to do that, I'm not showing you any ankles.
10:09No ankle content today, sheesh monster. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
10:12You're going to have to just deal with my ugly face.
10:15Dad, I'm hungry. I'm starving. What's for dinner? If you're like me, you've heard your kids say that a million billion times.
10:22And when they would say that it used to send me running for overpriced takeout, but now my freezer is fully stocked with Omaha steaks.
10:29Having them on hand is like having a trusted butcher shop right in my kitchen.
10:34Every cut, aged to perfection, vacuum sealed individually, and delivered straight to your door frozen, making weeknight dinners effortless and deliciously foolproof.
10:40Beyond incredible steaks, they offer chicken, seafood, sides, and desserts to complete any meal.
10:45If you're ready to upgrade your freezer game, start with this deal.
10:48You can try the burger perfection flight at OmahaSteaks.com today.
10:51That's 20, count them, 20 premium steak burgers for just $79.99.
10:55Plus, you get $35 off with the promo code FOOTBALLHOUR.
10:58That's OmahaSteaks.com. Promo code FOOTBALLHOUR gets you $35 off at checkout.
11:01Terms apply. See site for details. G'day, I'm Justin Wolfers, host of the Platypus Economics podcast.
11:06If there's one thing I've learned from a career teaching economics, it's that your life is shaped by economic currents you'll never see.
11:13A single price tag can explain things a thousand experts can't.
11:16People who understand economics, they make better decisions in their careers, their finances, their relationships, and their communities.
11:21And I want that for you. Listen to and follow Platypus Economics, available now wherever you get your podcasts.
11:27All right, we've got to get into this. All right, we've dicked around too much here.
11:32All right, the best fantasy pick in round one, Scott Barrett, what say you?
11:36Jameer Gibbs by far. This is a guy to blow the wad on in an auction league.
11:41I'm forecasting a vintage LaDainian Tomlinson-esque season. And you would remember, not a lot of people remember, but back in the day
11:48when LaDainian Tomlinson was the 101 every year, he broke snake leaks.
11:51Everyone had to either switch over to auction or they just resigned themselves to the 101 is going to win this year
11:58because the 101 wins every year because they get LaDainian Tomlinson.
12:01Here's a stat for you. In games without David Montgomery on the field, Jameer Gibbs averages 27.4 fantasy points per game.
12:08That's the kind of season I'm having. Obviously, you know, 101, everyone likes the 101.
12:12But I think this is one of the best we've had in a really long time.
12:17The follow-up I have as my number one as well, but I have Bijan Robinson a little bit closer to you.
12:23But the follow-up question is, let's say you were lucky enough to get the 101 in multiple leagues.
12:29Is it Gibbs across the board? Or you might say, I'm going to do Gibbs in two of them and I'll do Bijan at 101.
12:36Is that even a consideration? Or you're just like, no, you think Gibbs is an outlier this year, even better than Bijan?
12:43Because a lot of people feel like they're fairly close and I'm one of them.
12:47So, like, Bijan, if I have the 102, I'm taking him in 100% of leagues.
12:52But in the 101, I'm taking Gibbs 100% of the time as well.
12:56I love Bijan. I think he has a 1,000-1,000 season in the range of outcomes.
13:00But it's just like, look at the difference in the offenses, right?
13:04Like, Tua Tagovailoa is the starting quarterback. It looks rough.
13:07Lions are, like, guaranteed to be a top-five offense.
13:09So, no, I'm not a guy who diversifies. I just, when I see an edge, I latch onto it.
13:15But, yeah, for me, it's Shamir Gibbs, one of the biggest edge picks in the game today.
13:20Stuntman Chuck says, Gibbs is a good pick? Oh, shit, I need to rethink my life decisions.
13:25I'm going to be honest with you, Scott. I think Stuntman Chuck is being sarcastic here.
13:30But the fact of the matter is, it's like, it makes sense.
13:34If you ask Scott Barrett, what do you think the best pick in the round one is?
13:39Of course, it's going to be the 101. For me, just, again, you know you guys, I am a running back heavy this year guy.
13:46But I will say that in a world where you don't get the one or two pick, and you're there in the
13:53middle to late rounds, I do will say that of the kind of the mid-round wide receivers, I do really like Amon Ross St.
14:00Brown. Just to your point about the List Lions offense, wide receiver four.
14:04He's the only wide receiver to average at least 18.5 fantasy points each of the last three seasons.
14:1034 red zone targets in 2025. He led the NFL.
14:13I think he'll win some bar bets with that.
14:15Like, name the wide receiver that led the NFL in red zone targets last year.
14:20I don't think you're coming up with Amon Ross St.
14:23Brown, but that is the answer. 41% target share for him last year as well.
14:27Red zone target share, I should say, for the sun god.
14:31So, yeah, I just think, I think he's both high floor and high upside.
14:35Again, as we really like this Lions offense. Let's move over to round two, Scott.
14:39And you like Devon Achan as your best pick in round number two.
14:43Yeah, I think that's kind of a hot take.
14:46But, you know, what drives fantasy points at the running back position?
14:50It's goal line carries, it's target volume, and it's explosive plays.
14:53You're not getting any goal line carries. Guess what?
14:56He's never got it. And he's finished top six in fantasy points per game three straight years.
15:01He leads all running backs and receptions over the last two years combined.
15:05This is also the worst wide receiver room I've ever seen.
15:08He's easily going to lead the team in targets this year, ranked top three among running backs.
15:13And then the other quotient is just being damn good at the game.
15:17And that's clearly what we have from Devon Achan.
15:20Better career yards per carry than Bo Jackson. I think it's the best since the 1940s.
15:24Just a special talent. People want to criticize, complain, the offense.
15:28And guess what? This offense sucked last year, too.
15:30It was dead last in plays per game. So I like this.
15:34I got a lot of heat for it, but I feel good about it.
15:38Well, I'm lower than Devon Achan on consensus. And my concern is, I don't disagree with anything you just said.
15:44Absolutely good at the game. Absolutely bad wide receiver room.
15:47Absolutely, yes, they're going to be bad this year, but they were bad last year.
15:52And as long as they're, as my friend Andy Barron said, as long as they're normal bad and not historically bad, he'll be fine.
15:59The concerns on him is, does he throw, does he get as many targets and receptions from Malik Willis as he did for Tua?
16:06By the way, I should have mentioned in the Bijon conversation, over the weekend, Tua Tunga Vailoa has been named as the
16:13week one starter for the Atlanta Falcons. I do think, I tweeted this out, Scott, I think Tua being under, again, for our purposes, it doesn't matter.
16:21You're starting Drake London in every league you have him.
16:24You're starting Bijon Robinson in every league you have him.
16:27And they're both going to be awesome, regardless of who's under center.
16:31But I do feel like Tua, slight bump to Bijon, whereas Michael Penix, slight bump to Drake London in terms of how they like to attack them.
16:39Just Tua is quick to dump it off. You know, and whereas Penix is, you know, more apt to look further down the field.
16:46And so anyway, Tua is going to be- Two stats real quick, just to aid your argument.
16:51Over the last three years combined, Tua Tagovailoa targeted running backs at the league's highest rate, Malik Willis at the league's lowest rate.
16:58So that is a real concern. Again, you know, I'm willing to look past it.
17:02And then for Drake London, yeah, I think you're really hoping Michael Penix is starting week four when he comes back to full health.
17:10Averages 20.6 fantasy points per game throughout his career with Michael Penix.
17:13All other quarterbacks below 14, only 13.9 with Kirk Cousins, 9.6 with Marcus Mariota.
17:17So yeah, that's something that really has to factor into the equation.
17:21And I think that was a good argument by you.
17:24I appreciate that. Yeah. I mean, so I swim slightly lower on Devon Achan in terms of consensus because of that, because
17:31I'm just nervous that when the pocket collapses, whereas Tua would quickly dump it off to Achan, Willis is going to just duck and run.
17:38And yes, I mean, like we've heard jokes about like, hey, he's going to touch the ball 40 times a game, Devon Achan.
17:45But like, you know, he's dealt a little bit with some injury issues, you know, both in college and in the pros.
17:52And does, can he withstand that kind of workload?
17:54So anyway, I love Devon Achan. I hope I'm wrong because I have him in a dynasty league where I'm, not our
18:01dynasty league, but a different dynasty league where I am geared up to win, where I finished second in that league last year.
18:08And I got CMC in that league. So I'm desperately hoping to, you know, I need one more year out of him.
18:14Anyway, but my favorite fantasy pick in round two, and the regulars have heard me talk about this throughout the preseason, but
18:21it's Ken Walker, both him and Chase Brown. But Brown goes higher than Walker.
18:25So I'll just focus on Walker here. I'm at running back six.
18:29I've taken him at the end of the first round, you know, or, you know, if I'm on the, on the, at
18:36the end, I've taken first pick round two, whatever.
18:38But look, no running back on the Chiefs last year had more than 80 touches.
18:43Mahomes not 100% healthy. They paid the man. This is somebody that throughout his career, when he's gotten work, he's produced, you
18:49know, for his career, when he gets at least 18 touches, he averages over 18 fantasy points per game as well.
18:56All the training, training camp reports that they want to use them in the passing game more.
19:01Scott, I think, I think, I think it is unlikely.
19:04I think it is unlikely. But I think number one running back in fantasy football is within the range of outcomes for Ken Walker.
19:11Yep. Like, again, it's unlikely, especially in a world where Gibbs is healthy all season, but it's not crazy talk.
19:17I mean, like, it's with, maybe it's a five or 10% chance, but there's a chance.
19:22Yeah. This is one of my favorite running backs in all of football.
19:26He was a must draft pick for me last year.
19:29So now I feel like it's like, I'm scared to get hurt again.
19:33You know, it's like, are we looking past his injury history?
19:36Are we a little too injury optimistic here? But just looking at talent, looking at what Eric Biennemi wants to do with this offense.
19:43Like, yeah, this is, you know, if all running backs, you know, no one gets hurt this year.
19:49This is a guy I'd have like dangerously high RB5, RB6.
19:52So, so I'm with you. It's just, I don't know.
19:55I try and be all logic and reason, but sometimes emotion creeps in.
19:59Um, it's interesting because, you know, you said injury concerns is why you may not have walkers high as you would want to based purely on talent.
20:07But your favorite pick in round three is Malik neighbors.
20:10Is that, is that with the injury concern baked in like in a world where you knew he was on a percent
20:16of healthy, he's a first round pick. Is that the idea?
20:20If, if I knew he were 100% healthy, he would be a first round pick.
20:24You look at his last seven full games. He averages 118 yards per game.
20:29He averages 22.7 fantasy points per game. Justin Jefferson all the way down at like 8.4 fantasy point his last seven full games.
20:35And, uh, and yeah. And so that's really what it comes down to.
20:39I think there's like a real world where I'm wrong, but how I'm wrong is just, he was a better mid season
20:46by low than he was an actual draft pick.
20:49Um, but to me, he's actually a really good draft pick.
20:52And if you start your season off slow, that's okay.
20:55Uh, making the playoffs is easy. Winning the championship is really hard.
20:59And this is a potential edge pick in the second half to me.
21:02So I'm really bullish on Malik neighbors. I'm a big Jackson dark guy.
21:06I think Jackson dark is a special talent. That's one of my big hot takes.
21:11Uh, and so yeah, round three Malik neighbors. I'm all over that.
21:14I will tell you, we had Stefania bell on the show, uh, last week and she, she, she doused a lot of
21:21water on the enthusiasm around Malik neighbors because of this injury, you know, because of the injury and there's the recovery and
21:28that she's like, you know, he'll be out there, but I just don't know that we're going to get full on Malik
21:34neighbors as Greg Lau 100 says Dr. Stefania freaking bell was out on neighbors.
21:39Therefore I am out on neighbors. So you might not.
21:42Stefania is not an actual doctor. Unlike Dr. Deoxide, who of course is he's one of our regulars, uh, Scott.
21:48Um, so, you know, there's a concern there on neighbors.
21:51Just, you know, he's one of those guys that anything you tell me, I'd be like, yeah, that could happen.
21:57Like, you're right. Like he could be, you know, I never want to doubt Stefania who for my money, seriously pound for
22:03pound is the best injury analyst in the, in, in the industry.
22:07And it's, I don't think it's particularly close and that's no disrespect to anyone out there doing it.
22:12But I just, she is, she is the goat.
22:15Um, so I, you know, I never, anytime I bet against Stefania, I'm usually wrong.
22:19Um, all that said, he's a young athlete. He's a freak.
22:23It was an early injury. And even if he's not as explosive, just massive volume target.
22:28When you look around, I mean, like, you know, we're going to talk about him a little bit coming up later, but
22:34like who other, so we like Isaiah likely, but other than that, like, I mean, who else is catching passes on the, is it Beckham?
22:42Is it Malachi fields? Like he just, he just may get a massive target share where it doesn't matter if he doesn't
22:48have the explosiveness of his rookie year, because it's just like every other pass is going to him.
22:54So, um, uh, so yeah, I get it there.
22:56My round three fantasy pick is not a, is not a shock here.
23:00I don't need to go into it that because my, my guys have heard me talk about it forever, but it's Devante Smith.
23:07Who's my ride or die. I'm at wide receiver 10.
23:10I have him, you know, higher than significantly higher than consensus.
23:14Um, sometimes, you know, in leagues that I'm in, he goes at the end of the second because everyone knows he's my
23:20guy, but, um, generally speaking in leagues where there are non Matthew Berry fans, um, he goes in the third and, you
23:27know, um, AJ Brown, at least a 28% target share every year he was in Philadelphia.
23:32So that's massive target share that's now been vacated in Philadelphia.
23:35And with AJ Brown off the field since 2023, Smith has targeted on 29% of his routes when he's off the field.
23:41And as you know, Scott, you are Mr. Dank stats.
23:44That's a number that's, that's Puka Nakua level. That's Jamar chase level.
23:48That's Jackson Smith and Jigbo level being targeted on 29% of your routes without AJ Brown there.
23:53And so I just assuming health, I think a monster season coming for Devante Smith.
23:58I think he has top five wide receiver and fantasy football upside.
24:01That's right. I, and this is an insanely talented player, like the only wide receiver ever to win the Heisman.
24:07And so, yeah, AJ Brown, a freak as well, but you, you take him out of the picture.
24:13It really allows Devante Smith, the opportunity to shine.
24:15And I think we see that this year. All right, Scott, let's move over to, uh, to round number four.
24:21How much, um, here's real quickly before we move on around number four, I just want to take one moment here on
24:28the giants pass catchers outside of neighbors. Like is like, where do you, like, I'm, I think Malachi field should be somebody
24:35that you try to pick up on waivers tonight for people that have already drafted.
24:39Cause I think there's a decent chance. He's like your number two wide receiver for the giants.
24:44They, the giants released Darius Slayton in, in the, uh, over the weekend.
24:48Uh, so, I mean, like, I mean, do we think Beckham has anything less?
24:52Like, how are you projecting this giants wide receiver room outside of neighbors or is, or is your take?
24:58It doesn't matter. Cause it's all going to Malik.
25:01Well, part of my love for Malik is I heard through sources when he was coming out at LSU is like, he's
25:07a bit of an a-hole where if he doesn't get 12, if he doesn't get 12 targets every single game, he throws a massive temper tantrum.
25:15And you saw that his rookie year as well, where he really threw Dable under the bus.
25:20And then that didn't happen again. So I think like once he's fully healthy, like he's getting a dozen targets per game, no matter what.
25:28And then for who's number two, it's interesting. If you talk to the beats, uh, they're really saying it's Isaiah likely, and
25:34there isn't a close second behind him. Uh, but I, I don't know.
25:38I, I kind of a good connection with a coach there who, uh, it was kind of lukewarm on Isaiah likely, but has been raving about Malachi field.
25:47So based on the thesis that neighbors might not be fully healthy to start, I think both guys are tremendous options to
25:53have, uh, on your roster the first few weeks of the season.
25:57All right. We have to, we got, uh, 26 minutes left here, Scott.
26:01So let's go quickly. Cause I do want to get to waivers at the end of this as well.
26:07But, um, who's your best fantasy pick in round four?
26:10That's T Higgins. I kind of have no idea why he's going in round four and a 12 team league, but that's certainly the case in ESPN.
26:18I don't, I don't know what our former coworker Mike Clay is thinking.
26:22It sounds personal. Maybe it's, maybe it's personal. I don't know what T Higgins did to, to Mike Clay, but I'm just joking.
26:29But yeah, this, this just seems like extreme value to me.
26:32You look at a, just over the last two years in games, Joe Burrow played, he's putting up wide receiver six numbers
26:38by targets per game, fantasy points per game, XFP per game.
26:42So, uh, extreme value there in T Higgins. No question.
26:45Again, I'm all in on the Bengals offense, proud fantasy life investor, Joe Burrow, proud fantasy life investor, Jamar chase.
26:51Um, but even though the fact that T Higgins has not given us any of his money, he is not a proud fantasy life investor.
26:58He's a very good wide receiver who is basically a top 12 fantasy wide receiver whenever he's on the field with Joe Burrow.
27:05So if you're assuming health from Joe Burrow, which I think you and I both are, you know, that he stays healthy.
27:12I think the Bengals are going to be good this year.
27:15Um, like just the team forget their offense. Their offense is always good.
27:19Yeah. I don't get the kind of, you know, the, the disdain or the, the, you know, shrugging of the shoulders by the fantasy community at T Higgins.
27:27My favorite tight end, my favorite pick in round four is Colston Loveland.
27:31I've been all in. He was a runner up for me on ride or die as well.
27:36Again, final eight games, 25% target share. I know it's a small sample size, but I am betting on the fact again,
27:43with DJ Moore and Buffalo, Luther Burton already a little bit banged up.
27:47My young guy already a little bit banged up.
27:50Just the Colston Loveland, the first pick of Ben Johnson in his bears regime and just what he did over the, over
27:56the second half of the year and in the playoff run, just I'm all in on Loveland who I, I love the skillset.
28:03I love the offense. I love the quarterback and I love the opportunity here.
28:07So Loveland is my best pick in round four.
28:10Yeah. I've talked to some film guys who are really sharp and the way that you talk about Colston Loveland is crazy.
28:17Like they're kind of all unanimously like, Oh, I think he's going to be a top three tight end.
28:22One guy said, I think he's shut out Max Toscano.
28:25I think he's the best tight end in the game right now for a guy, you know, it took to like week 15 for him to break out.
28:34But then yeah, when he did, he was putting up.
28:37Um, yeah, like Puka Nakua type numbers. It was pretty incredible.
28:40Uh, let's stay in Chicago for your best pick in round five, Scott.
28:44Uh, that would be David Montgomery to me. People think he's a safe, boring, unsexy pick.
28:49I don't see that. I think this, you know, yeah.
28:52Yeah. He had a 40% snapshot last year, but he was playing alongside the one-on-one.
28:56What, what would Saquon Barkley snap share have been alongside Jameer Gibbs?
29:00So he's kind of neglected, forgotten about. Uh, but I think it's clear they want him to be the bell cow.
29:06Um, and I think he's going to be great in that role on a good offense with good field position, good game
29:13script, good, uh, high number of, of red zone drives.
29:16So I see realistic, like fringe RB one, uh, potential for him and he feels really safe barring an injury to me.
29:23Yeah. He's not a sexy pick. We've talked about Montgomery a lot on this show.
29:27Um, but you know, the Texans last year were top eight in the NFL and read and just rushing attempts and running back rushing attempts.
29:35And I know it's an, you know, different play caller, but still, I mean, like they want to run the ball.
29:41They do not want CJ Stroud throwing it. And so Woody Marks is not built to be a, an every down back
29:47and certainly not a goal line back. So Montgomery, there's nothing sexy there, but he's going to have 1300 yards and eight to 10 touchdowns.
29:55I was saying when I was saying like, let's go to stay in Chicago for your best pick in round five.
30:01I was thinking Luther burden might be the choice here.
30:04So let's talk just, I do think, you know, the fantasy community overall, and I'm no exception loves Luther burden.
30:10Thinks we're having a big breakout season for Luther burden, uh, this year as well.
30:15Again, I'm in on Caleb. I'm in on Ben Johnson.
30:18I'm in on Loveland. I'm in on burden. I'm in on a dunze.
30:22I even like my non guy. I mean, like Deandre Swift, I think is a value.
30:27Like I, I want, you know, I think Ben Johnson is going to, you know, coach his ass off this year.
30:33And I'm a big, I want to, I want at least one piece of the bears offense in every league that I'm in.
30:40And I think I do. Uh, I have a ton of Loveland.
30:43I have some Swift. I have some burden, a little bit of a dunze.
30:48Um, but you know, just again, what you saw over the second half of the year, big target share available with DJ Moore now in Buffalo.
30:55I think the sky is the limit for Luther burden who, again, I know that the buzz has died on a little
31:02bit because he was banged up during the preseason.
31:05But like Ben Johnson could not stop being so effusive about him early in the preseason and like expected to be there week one.
31:12So, um, best rookie season yards per route run since Odell Beckham jr last year.
31:16And yeah, like what you're hitting on right now, I think there's a real possibility.
31:21Like this year's answer to the test was just which team in your league drafted the most bears players because you have
31:28Ben Johnson, like elite, elite, elite play caller chip chip on his shoulder guy, just like you, me, Tom Brady.
31:34And, uh, you hear quotes like, yeah, I want to break Denver's record for points per game this year.
31:39And so, uh, there are power law players. There are power law teams and, uh, yeah, I'm, I'm fully aligned with you on this one.
31:47We also agree on rounds, the best pick in round six, um, because we've been talking about them a lot this preseason
31:53that, um, I think people think that it was a little bit fluky or it was just sort of volume based, but Parker Washington can play.
32:01Parker Washington is a good player, Scott, and he's your favorite pick in round six.
32:06Not only that, he's my exodia to end all exodias.
32:09What does that mean? He's just my favorite player at cost in all of fantasy this year.
32:14Yeah. You saw the proof of concept last year in full games after the team's by, or you just did the final five games, including the playoffs.
32:22It's just, or just any plays where all three wide receivers were on the field.
32:26He just totally out alpha to everyone else. That's also when Trevor Lawrence was playing his ball.
32:32And what gives me even more conviction is Liam Cohen's track record with the slot wide receiver.
32:37I was all in on Chris Godwin two years ago.
32:40He finished second and fantasy points per game behind only Jamar chase.
32:43Not only that, but he was a good nine fantasy points per game above Mike Evans when they were both healthy.
32:50No one does that to Mike Evans. That's an alpha, but in this offense, the Liam Cohen offense, the slot is the alpha.
32:57And you saw that with Wondell Robinson at Kentucky.
32:59You saw that with Cooper cup in the Rams.
33:02And so, yeah, I also think he's a great stylistic fit for Trevor Lawrence who tends to lock onto his first read
33:09needs to get the ball out quick. So I am, I am Gaga for, for Parker Washington and my draft guide.
33:15I said, if you do not draft Parker Washington, we can't be friends anymore.
33:19So you have your ride or die. This one's my ride or die.
33:23I love it. I love it. I, I have a lot of Parker Washington this year.
33:28Completely agree with everything you're saying. I'm sorry. So we're friends.
33:31We can be friends. We can be friends or, or the reason we're not friends won't be Parker Washington.
33:37It's probably a better reason to put it better way to put it, Scott.
33:41Yes. But you know, just to give a different name, here's another guy that's going in this range that I absolutely love
33:48is Christian Watson, who again, Dwayne McFarland, you know, who, who works with me over at fantasy life does a great job.
33:54Like he's my dank stats guy, Dwayne. And, you know, just absolutely crushes for us.
33:59And he's talked about the fact that like Christian Watson is not an X anymore.
34:03He's going to play the Z. Like, it's not just him, not just doing nothing but go balls.
34:09Like he's running all sorts of inter, he's running intermediate routes.
34:12He's running all over the place. I think the Packers offense overall is another one.
34:16Like we're so in on the bears, but boy, I think the NFC North is just going to be an awesome division
34:23this year, you know, top to bottom. And I think the Packers offense is going to be a lot more fun than
34:30it has been in the past, partially because of, because of the Jacobs issue, but partially because I just think, I think
34:36they're going to let Jordan Love cook a little bit this year.
34:40And so again, with Dobbs in New England, with Devont, Dontabian Wicks in Philadelphia, you've got, you've got Watson, Reed and Golden and Tucker Craft.
34:47I think it's just gonna be like, I like all three of those guys.
34:52I love Craft. I just, I'm high on the Packers passing attack this year.
34:56And Christian Watson, who in 19 career games with at least a 20% target share, averages 16 fantasy points per game.
35:02I think he's going to get there this year.
35:05Final seven games last year, he was a top 12 wide receiver.
35:08Health though is a question with Christian Watson, but he's currently healthy now.
35:12I think he's going to have an absolutely alpha wide receiver one year and he's not being drafted like it as well.
35:19So let's, let's move on to round number seven, Scott.
35:22And you mentioned Mike Evans earlier when talking about Chris Godwin, but you like him in round seven.
35:27Yeah. I know. I could have put Christian Watson as like one of my must draft players.
35:32Cause like, I love him. I think you articulated that perfectly and I'm in full agreement.
35:37He's going to go off this year. The only problem I have with him is I can't get Mike Evans and Christian Watson.
35:44And I really do strongly prefer Mike Evans. I, I, this is the quote of the off season.
35:50If I can pull it up. Yeah. It's from Ryan, Ryan Heath, whatever happens with Evans this year, it will feel incredibly obvious in hindsight.
35:57Either he scores a zillion touchdowns for Kyle Shanahan or his hamstring falls off the bone like Texas barbecue because he's 33
36:04years old practicing next to a haunted 5g Chernobyl super EMF electrical substation.
36:08And that's really what it comes down to, to me is like either he's a fringe wide receiver one this year and
36:14he stays healthy or he gets hurt. And so, you know, me on the upside wins championships guy, Mike Evans, also a
36:21really strong track record of playing through injuries and playing well through injuries.
36:25So I love Christian. I love him so much, but I do prefer slightly Mike Evans.
36:30And so that's who my pick is here in round seven.
36:33But great quote from Ryan Heath, who does a great job for you over at fantasy points.
36:38But completely agree. And I think the argument, the pro Mike Evans argument, in addition to that is like, yes, there is
36:45an injury concern with the, you know, but that's baked into his ADP and no world should Mike Evans in a Kyle
36:51Shanahan offense with a guy like Brock Purdy, who likes to throw when they get in close.
36:56And you've got a guy that's as good a 50-50 ball winner as there is in the NFL.
37:02Like there's no reason Mike Evans should go anywhere close to the seventh, but that's why you can get him at that
37:08price that's already baked into the ADP. So when you're in that range, I have no problem.
37:13I like Mike Evans. He made the love list this year.
37:17So we're in agreement there. My best round, my best fantasy pick in round seven is Ramondre Stevenson.
37:22We've been on him all preseason, even though Travion Henderson was going around, round and a half ahead of him.
37:28Um, Travion Henderson, by the way, currently banged up, expected to miss practice on Wednesday.
37:33He missed some practices last week. So, and Mike Reese, who does a great job covering the Patriots for ESPN, my buddy,
37:39Mike Reese, you know, said a couple of days ago, very clearly, Ramondre is the one, you know what I mean?
37:46And so this is a guy that, you know, that he's the clear cut starter.
37:50That was the quote, clear cut starter. Last year in fantasy points per touch, minimum 100 touches, Ramondre Stevenson was third in fantasy points per touch.
37:58He was better than you think. And even when he had the fumbling issues, they kept going back to him.
38:04So again, so in round seven, I think people think he's a committee back and you're, you'll see some Travion Henderson when
38:11he's healthy, but he's a starting running back. He's a, he's a starting running back, um, going in round seven.
38:17He's not sexy. He's another guy like, like Swift, like Dave Montgomery.
38:20But, uh, we like this Patriots offense and it's, um, I think they're going to be, uh, you know, and Ramondre is the starter.
38:27Let's move over to round eight, Scott. And, um, and, you know, I mean, I assume you have the same opinion on Ramondre.
38:34Feel free to disagree with me if you don't, but, uh, I wanted to get your pick for round eight.
38:40Who's also a running back. Yeah. By the way, Ramondre best, best ball pick of the off season by far.
38:46Yeah. Yeah. You could take the RB one three rounds after the RB two on the same team.
38:52That's crazy. Uh, this is probably the pick I feel the least confident in, but it's John, Jonathan Brooks, who's already a little banged up right now.
39:00But to me, it's just like after Ramondre goes like, it's only running backs who are handcuffs.
39:05And this is a running back who I think can win the job on talent alone.
39:10And we have proof of concept here. Dave Canales, RB one, that role can be incredibly valuable.
39:15You saw it with Rashad white three years ago, Chuba Hubbard, two years ago, where you go daddle on the two games
39:21without, uh, Chuba Hubbard, uh, was over 190 rushing yards.
39:24Uh, and so, yeah, there's a player that was drafted really high, really good pass catcher.
39:29So, uh, I liked the upside with Jonathan Brooks as, as sort of the last running back.
39:34I feel good about drafting. Yeah, I think, I think that's, uh, I think that's completely fair.
39:40My best fantasy pick in round, especially with Chuba, like, you know, who knows?
39:44Um, it's just funny though. There's a chance that after all the talk of Hubbard is banged up in the preseason and Brooks is finally healthy.
39:52The way it's trending at the moment, there's a chance that Brooks misses week one and Hubbard is healthy.
39:57But I agree with you overall, like in this round, who's the guy that has the best chance of being a starting running back?
40:04And the answer is Jonathan Brooks. Um, my best pick in, in this round is Justin Herbert.
40:10Again, like I'm a big weight on quarterback this year.
40:13Love Josh Allen, love all the obvious guys here, but going to, um, you know, I, I am among the offenses that
40:19I am very high on this year. It is the chargers, Mike McDaniel.
40:23People forget just, you know, Tua was on the, Tua was one of the league leaders in passing yards his first year under McDaniel.
40:30And respectfully, I'll do respect to Tua Tunga-Vailoa, like he ain't Justin Herbert.
40:34He ain't close. And so getting Herbert who, you know, um, he's finished lower than QB 13 and points per game only once in his career.
40:42There's a floor to Justin Herbert. And now I think he's primed for the best fantasy season of his career with Mike McDaniel calling the plays.
40:50And the fact that we saw last year for the first time, he finally started using his legs in a significant way.
40:56And so, um, uh, Herbert, you know, I just, yeah, I think he's just going to explode.
41:02And just to get a guy that has top three, top four quarterback in fantasy football upside in round nine, or I'm
41:08sorry, in round eight here, uh, I think is exciting.
41:11Tua, by the way, top five in both passing yards and touchdown rate his first two seasons under Mike McDaniel.
41:17Let's move over to round number nine. Um, and, uh, and yes, as a Brandon De La Torre says that Herbert Ladstack this year could be deadly.
41:25I'm in on both those guys and Herbert, like, I'm sorry.
41:29And Omari and Hampton never wrong. Just early, uh, big year coming for Omari and Hampton.
41:33Who's the best fantasy pick in round number nine, Scott?
41:36We've got 11 minutes left, so we got to go super quick.
41:40Easily George Kittle. Here's a stat over the last two years combined.
41:44He averages the exact same fantasy points per game as Justin Jefferson.
41:47You're worried about his health. You could pair him with Isaiah likely Dallas Goddard, Don Kincaid, Mark Andrews.
41:53So amazing pick in round nine. Yeah. By the way, Stefania Bell completely agrees with you on this one.
41:58She was at Niners camp. She, she's talked to the doctors, like not sure you necessarily want to start him in week
42:05number one, but yes, Kittle is an unbelievable value who, because if you knew he was healthy, seems like he is.
42:11He's a top five tight end. That's not going anywhere close to, uh, to a top five tight end.
42:17For me, it's Josh Downs. I think people are freaked out about the Keenan Allen stuff.
42:22Keenan Allen's already had some off the field issues.
42:24He's 34 years old. Alec Pierce is coming back from ankle surgery.
42:28People forget prior to Daniel Jones going down, the Colts were one of the best offenses in the NFL.
42:34Josh Downs is going to play in two wide receiver sets.
42:37When Michael Pitt was off the field last year, he was targeted on over 25% of his routes.
42:43So here in round nine, I think I'm not worried about Keenan Allen, um, who will earn some targets for sure.
42:49But, uh, Josh Downs is, and I know you've got Tyler Warren there as well, but I think Josh Downs is going to be the leading wide receiver.
42:57Uh, you know, has a, has a clear path to being the leading wide receiver on one of the better offenses in
43:04the NFL, which should be one of the better offenses in the NFL.
43:08So, uh, love him in round number nine. Who's the best fantasy pick in route?
43:12Feel free to react to, to Downs real quickly.
43:1510 minutes left. And then give me the best fantasy pick in round 10 for you.
43:20I love Josh Downs. I love, so that's a great call.
43:23Uh, to me, best pick in round 10 after Josh Downs is off the board.
43:28One of the two exciting rookies, it's either Casey Concepcion or it's Dejan Shribling.
43:32Casey, uh, I think is going to play right away, put up points in week one.
43:37Shribling is sort of a wait and hold, uh, and could be available on waivers week four, but you're drafting him because
43:43he has tremendous second half upside, uh, contingent upside in case of an injury.
43:47Um, and so, yeah, I, I think, I think Casey's a little bit safer.
43:52Shribling has more of a ceiling that really comes down to your league settings and format.
43:56Uh, but you can't go wrong with either of those guys in round 10.
44:01Couldn't completely agree. Look, uh, it's, you know, um, it's always Purdy in the Strib club.
44:05Um, the strip and the Strib club is always open.
44:08So I'm in on Shribling as well. All the things we said about Mike Evans.
44:13I think the opportunity there is for Shribling. I think the Niners are going to be a good offense.
44:19Yeah. And I think Brock Purdy is underrated as a quarterback, both real life and fantasy wise.
44:24But talking about Casey Concepcion and the, and the regulars have heard me talk about him throughout the preseason.
44:30He'd be my pick in this round. I like Stribling as well.
44:33But you know, Zay Flowers in all three years, Zay Flowers in all three years under Todd Munkin scored 200 more fantasy
44:40points per game on a PPR scoring. I'm sorry, 200 more fantasy points in PPR scoring each of the three seasons he
44:46played under Todd Munkin, Zay Flowers did. And so I think Casey Concepcion is going to play the exact same role in
44:53Munkin's offense with candidly more upside just because he's a bigger body.
44:57You know what I mean? Like I think Casey Concepcion has more touchdown potential than Zay Flowers does, at least at this,
45:03you know, in his rookie year versus Zay Flowers rookie year.
45:06So just given the quarterback, I know people are concerned about the quarterback in Cleveland and rightfully so.
45:12But to me, that's a perfect reason for Casey Concepcion because they're going to manufacture touches because they don't necessarily trust Watson
45:18or eventually Sanders to get him the ball. You see it here on your screen now, Scott, the best picks in every round for both you and myself.
45:27All right there. Round one, you've got Gibbs. I've got St.
45:30Brown. Round two, you're at A-chan. I'm Ken Walker.
45:33Neighbors for you in three. Devontae Smith by Rutter Dyer in three.
45:37Round four, Higgins for you. Loveland for me. Round five, Dave Montgomery.
45:40Luther Burden for you. In round six, Parker Washington for you.
45:43Watson for me. Christian Watson. Round seven, Mike Evans for you.
45:47Ramondre Stevenson for me. Round eight, Jonathan Brooks for you.
45:50Justin Herbert for me. Round nine, George Kittle for you.
45:53Josh Downs for me. And then round 10, the two rookies.
45:56Dijon Stribling for you. Casey Concepcion for me. All right.
45:59In our final seven and a half minutes, Scott Barrett, let's talk a little bit early waiver ads for week number one.
46:06And, you know, we can just go quickly through them.
46:09But, you know, you mentioned Malik Willis earlier. I also, Tyler Shuck.
46:12These are all guys, by the way. These are all guys that are available in more than 50% of Yahoo leagues that we looked at here.
46:20And, uh, I mean, you know, we talked about, you know, Willis averages over 44 yards per game.
46:26Shuck. Shuck had at least 17 fantasy points in seven of nine games last year.
46:30He was a top 12 fantasy quarterback. Once he became the starter, the Tyson injury, we don't love, but he runs.
46:36And I think I'm in on the Saints offense as being better than average this year, Scott.
46:41Yeah. So I think if you need a quarterback for week one, Tyler Shuck's the way to go.
46:4750 point over under in this game. You start all your lines, start all your Saints.
46:52Um, but if they're up, if it were up to me, I'm, I'm adding Malik Willis.
46:56Uh, and I kind of don't care what he does week one.
47:00It's just more for his upside across the full season.
47:03He is my number one must draft quarterback this year at cost.
47:07Uh, I just see a tremendous amount of upside with his hyper mobility.
47:11And I think he's good. People just kind of assume he sucks.
47:14I think he is like, kind of like who we all hope Justin Fields would be when he was drafted by the bears in round one.
47:22So I'm actually really bullish on him, even if the offense is probably bad, doesn't have anyone to throw to.
47:28Uh, I love me some Malik Willis. Well, and he is on the dynasty league that you and I are in.
47:34He's your, he's one of your quarterbacks. I know that.
47:37Um, yeah, you don't, you don't have too many quarterbacks.
47:40You had to spend a 100% of your fab on Carson Beck.
47:44This is factually correct. My, my, so I, I, I, I, I, I won this league, like I think, uh, two of
47:51the first four years, um, and, and finished first and points over the first four seasons.
47:55Like lost in the finals, two of the four years that I didn't win.
48:00Um, but my quarterbacks in this league are, and so I've been rebuilding.
48:03I have Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes. That's it.
48:06And I, I drafted Drew Aller in, in our rookie draft, uh, this year and, you know, got lucky with his landing spot.
48:13But Carson Beck feels like I've spent a thou, we have a thousand dollars fab and I spent a thousand bucks on, uh, Carson Beck this year.
48:21Uh, just because, you know, it's a super, it's a 33 man, 33 man roster, 12 team super flex league with four IR spots.
48:28It's deep. It's anyone with a pulse. And so I don't think Jacoby Brissett is the long-term answer for the Cardinals.
48:35I think the Cardinals have nice skill players with Wilson, Harrison, McBride, Jeremiah Love and Carson Beck has looked good this preseason when he's gotten an opportunity.
48:43So I think there's a chance that Carson Beck is their starting quarterback this year.
48:47And I think he's a chance to be a good fantasy quarterback when he gets, you know, I don't feel like the
48:54Cardinals are just, I don't think they just drafted him to be like, okay, next year, let's go get a quarterback.
49:00Like, I think Carson Beck's going to get a chance to be their guy.
49:04You know, the way that Tyler's shot. Yes. Yes.
49:07That's exactly right. I was, I was just literally about to say like Tyler's shot, like the saints give shock a chance.
49:14And I think if Beck proves himself to be like, okay, good.
49:17We got a quarterback. And if he doesn't work out, then maybe we'll address the position next year, but Beck's going to
49:24get a shot at some point this year. And so again, giving my, given my lack of depth at the position, I went all in on Carson Beck.
49:32Your team is much better than mine in that particular league.
49:36Um, rest of the running back, rest of the guys in the waiver ads, just some of the the, some of the,
49:42um, uh, you know, tank Bixby, who's the primary insurance running back here.
49:46How about Tajay Spears? Um, again, Pollard isn't, um, uh, you know, Pollard isn't necessarily there.
49:51And, you know, like you could see a pass catching running back with Tajay Spears, like Tajay Spears, who's when he's gotten work has been productive.
49:59Jeremiah Love, not a hundred percent. There's a chance that Tyler Algiers, you're starting running back for the Cardinals here in week number one.
50:06Um, talked about, you know, and then some of the wide receivers that I think are really interesting, hearing a ton of
50:13great buzz about Adonai Mitchell, Aidy Mitchell there. You see Denzel Boston, of course, Keenan Allen, we just talked about here.
50:19Um, uh, and then I'll mention two tight ends, Dalton Schultz, eight straight weeks as he's, as a top 10 tight end,
50:26he was tied for third most of the position again, with the injuries that they're in Houston.
50:31And I think similar to likely being the number two pass catcher for the Giants, Dalton Schultz, you know, he's going to
50:37catch and drop, but, um, you know, catch and fall.
50:40But I think Dalton Schultz is your number two pass catcher for the Texans.
50:45And then of course, you know, three straight seasons with at least 50 receptions for Chig Okonkwo.
50:50He's a commander. I'm a homer, but I like the skillset and I like the role in Washington.
50:55Any of those names jump out to you real quickly.
50:58We got three minutes left, Scott. Yeah. I got to shout out the ass God, Adonai Mitchell, uh, for those who don't
51:05know fantasy points data, we have a stat called average separation score or ass.
51:09And if you look at that, it says, Adonai Mitchell is an elite separator.
51:13He's really struggled with drops, uh, fumbles, uh, some other issues.
51:16Uh, but the separation abilities were always there, especially deep.
51:19If you look at the routes he excels on and the routes that Geno Smith most likes to target is best at,
51:26those are all the 80 Mitchell routes. And so, yeah, if he just hit the jugs machine like crazy this off season, I don't know.
51:34I, I see on a bad team. I see some, some upside here.
51:37I think most other people don't. So got to give some love to the ask.
51:42God always been a big, uh, at least since he was drafted a big Adonai Mitchell guy.
51:47Well, and you know, we had Scott Turner on, uh, the show earlier in the preseason, you know, who was with the
51:54jets last year in a, in a, um, uh, as a coach and, you know, was singing Mitchell's praises.
51:59And I think change of scenery here and opportunity guy that was a second round overall pick.
52:04You know what I mean? It's not like he's somebody that came out of nowhere.
52:09So, um, I have a ton of Mitchell this year in deeper leagues.
52:13Um, and to your point, that's, I mean, like, so we already talked about Malachi fields and you mentioned Mitchell on the jets.
52:20Like there's going to these bad teams that people like, eh, but there's going to be fantasy value to be had.
52:26So, I mean, I'll mention both dolphins wide receivers, uh, Chris bell and Caleb Douglas in that order.
52:32I think both guys are interesting. It's worth taking a flyer on them, you know, you know, Devon Valle with Jordan Tyson banged up.
52:39I think he's going to be the number two for the saints.
52:42Maybe Jalen Naylor, you know, I know you guys, I think you guys have Jack Besh in our league hope springs eternal
52:49for Jack Besh of the Raiders, but somebody from Las Vegas outside of Brock Bowers is going to emerge.
52:55So, um, I just think those are opportunities to look there and Jonah Coleman, please go get yourself to Jonah Coleman.
53:01I've been talking about him all preseason. He's not, he's, he's available in over 50% of leagues.
53:06He shouldn't be, uh, Jonah Coleman is going to be the starting running back of the Broncos over the second half of the year.
53:1350 seconds left. Scott, we will all follow you at Scott Barrett, DFB and check out your work at fantasypoints.com.
53:19Appreciate you brother. Thank you so much. Thanks for doing this.
53:23Thanks for being the commissioner of the DFB league.
53:25Thanks for your friendship and support. Thanks so much for having me.
53:29This is a dream come true. Unironically. So dream, used to dream of days like this.
53:34Uh, well, you were too kind. I appreciate it.
53:36Well, we will do this again, by the way, great week coming up this week.
53:41Um, so, uh, uh, tomorrow, uh, tomorrow Adam Thielen is going to be our guest.
53:45We're going to do wide receivers with Adam Thielen.
53:48And then on Thursday, on Thursday, a reunion with Nate Ravitz, the say nay kid himself gets off his high horse and comes by the happy hour.
53:56So fun week. It's closing time, which means you don't have to go home, but you can stay here for Scott.
54:03I'm Matthew. We'll see you tomorrow. Peace out.

More episodes from Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

6