Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry artwork

SF/LAR Recap + Week 1 Sit/Start

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

54 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 11, 2026
Published
Fri, September 11, 2026
21
Player insights
18
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownCaleb WilliamsMichael WilsonBlake CorumChristian McCaffreyChuba HubbardD.J. MooreDallas GoedertDeebo SamuelDemarcus RobinsonDontayvion WicksDrake MayeJ.K. DobbinsMatthew Stafford
Player analysis

Player insights

21

A.J. Brown

NegativeInjury19:59

A.J. Brown is expected to miss at least four weeks due to a high ankle sprain confirmed by MRI. Matthew Berry and Alex Cups agree he should be drafted behind players like Waddle, McConkie, and Mike Evans, placing him in the mid-range WR3 tier. Concerns exist regarding his age (30+) and whether he will retain his 'juice' after the injury, especially since his usage in Week 1 did not establish a clear, effective role before he exited.

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NegativeInjury20:02

A.J. Brown has been diagnosed with a high ankle sprain following the season opener and is expected to miss at least four weeks.

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Blake Corum

PositiveUsage14:04

Blake Corum saw limited usage in Week 1, recording a 25.6 utilization score. Alex Cupps suggests that Kalen Black may now be a more valuable draft target than Corum.

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Caleb Williams

PositiveProjection30:00

Matthew Berry is keeping it open on Caleb Williams as a starter for Week 1, ranking him at QB11. Berry highlights Williams' rushing ability—noting he was one of two QBs to rank top-seven in both passing and rushing yards last year—and a favorable matchup against a Panthers defense that struggled with pressure last season.

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NegativeProjection52:00

Matthew Berry and Alex Cups are keeping their outlook open on Caleb Williams for Week 1, with Berry noting he is closing it out on him for the week specifically, despite ranking him as QB15.

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Christian McCaffrey

PositiveValue12:08

Despite a lower-than-expected 55% snap share in Week 1, Matthew Berry views McCaffrey as a 'buy low' candidate. The usage dip is attributed to a long flight to Australia and minor cramping. McCaffrey maintained high-value roles, including 83% of third-down snaps and both red-zone running back touches, and showed improved explosiveness in the run game compared to 2025.

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Chuba Hubbard

PositiveUsage33:58

Alex Cups and Matthew Berry are both keeping it open on Chuba Hubbard for Week 1. Cups ranks him as RB21, citing data that favors him against a Bears defense that ranked 24th in DVP against RBs last year. Berry notes Hubbard is not on the injury report, unlike Jonathan Brooks, and expects a run-heavy approach from Dave Canales.

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D.J. Moore

NegativeUsage37:33

Matthew Berry and Alex Cups are split on DJ Moore for Week 1. While both are higher than the consensus, Berry suggests closing it out in 10-12 team leagues with only two WR spots, but keeping it open in three-WR formats. They acknowledge the tough Houston secondary but note the potential for Josh Allen to force-feed his new receiver.

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Dallas Goedert

PositiveProjection44:25

Matthew Berry ranks Dallas Goedert as his TE6 for Week 1, noting that the absence of AJ Brown significantly boosts Goedert's outlook. Berry highlights that Goedert had a 60% red zone target share when Brown was off the field last year and faces a Washington defense that allowed the second-most touchdowns to tight ends last season.

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Deebo Samuel

PositiveRole14:39

Matthew Berry and Alex Cupps identify Deebo Samuel as the primary beneficiary if Dejon Stribbling misses time. Samuel is recommended as a priority add in leagues where he is available and a viable weekly flex play.

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Demarcus Robinson

NegativeUsage15:13

Despite catching a touchdown in Week 1, DeMarcus Robinson only saw three targets. Alex Cupps views him as a 'field stretcher' who remains inconsistent for fantasy purposes.

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Dontayvion Wicks

PositiveUsage26:47

Matthew Berry identifies Dontayvion Wicks as a player available in many leagues who is expected to see a larger role than the market currently anticipates following Week 1.

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Drake Maye

NegativeProjection24:05

Drake Maye's fantasy outlook is downgraded following the A.J. Brown injury. Alex Cups is moving him down to the backend QB1 range (around Jared Goff or Brock Purdy) because his draft cost was predicated on having a true WR1. Matthew Berry agrees, noting the Patriots face a tougher first-place schedule this year, and prefers Justin Herbert or Caleb Williams over Maye.

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J.K. Dobbins

PositiveBust35:41

Matthew Berry and Alex Cups are closing it out on J.K. Dobbins for Week 1. Berry notes Dobbins is touchdown-dependent due to a lack of passing game involvement (4% target share) and faces a tough Chiefs run defense. Cups expects a three-headed backfield committee including Jonah Coleman and R.J. Harvey.

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Matthew Stafford

NegativeProjection16:21

Matthew Stafford struggled in Week 1, scoring only 4.1 fantasy points while being pressured on 45% of dropbacks. Both Berry and Cupps view this as 'noise' rather than a long-term trend, noting he had a similarly poor Week 1 last year before a strong season. They advise holding him for at least one more week, specifically against the Giants.

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Michael Mayer

PositiveValue46:45

Matthew Berry and Alex Cups view Michael Mayer as a strong Week 1 streamer following Brock Bowers' meniscus injury. Mayer has averaged 12.2 fantasy points in games with at least an 18% target share and faces a Miami defense that allowed the 5th most yards to tight ends last season. However, they caution against dropping established starters like Mark Andrews or Travis Kincaid for him, as Mayer's value is likely temporary.

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Michael Wilson

NegativeUsage39:49

Alex Cups is closing it out on Michael Wilson for Week 1 against the Chargers. Cups cites the Chargers' strong DVP against wide receivers and the uncertainty regarding Wilson's utilization now that Marvin Harrison Jr. is healthy and active.

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PositiveRole40:09

Matthew Berry advises sitting Michael Wilson in Week 1, citing a difficult matchup against the Chargers (4th in DVP against WRs) and historical data showing Wilson averaged only 5.5 fantasy points per game with a 13% target share when Marvin Harrison was on the field last year. While some sources suggest Wilson could play a 'Puka Nacua-style' role in the offense, Berry remains skeptical until he sees it in action.

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Mike Evans

PositiveProjection14:06

Matthew Berry remains high on Mike Evans, comparing his potential outlook to Davante Adams. Evans looked good in Week 1 with a 20% target share, six receptions for 49 yards, and a touchdown.

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NegativeUsage25:17

Matthew Berry remains committed to Rhamondre Stevenson for the season despite a poor Week 1 showing against the Seahawks. Berry argues that Stevenson will continue to receive significant volume regardless of efficiency concerns.

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Romeo Doubs

PositiveSleeper23:46

Despite a poor Week 1 performance, Alex Cups identifies Romeo Doubs as the primary Patriots pass catcher to trust on a week-to-week basis. He views Doubs as a top waiver wire pickup for Week 2, citing expected usage in a high-potential offense and the likelihood of a bounce-back.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

669
0:00Brothers and sisters, friends of the revolution, it is noon on YouTube, which means it's 5 o'clock somewhere.
0:05The Fantasy Football Happy Hour bar is officially open for the weekend.
0:09What's up, party people? It's your friendly neighborhood bartender Matthew Berry here, ready to get you set for week number one.
0:15We have a great show for you today. I think you guys will let me know in the comments.
0:21Maybe it's a mediocre show. I don't know. Hard to top yesterday, Nate Ravitz, and we did the reunion show.
0:27It was a lot of fun. If you are a fan of the original 06010 podcast and you missed yesterday's show, highly
0:33recommend going to check it out here on the Matthew Berry YouTube channel or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:39But we had a lot of fun with Nate yesterday.
0:42And joining me today is the man who not only thinks he can tout, actually can tout.
0:47It is Alex Cupps, the winner of the inaugural season of So You Think you can tout.
0:52He's a data scientist out of California. He's single and looking to mingle.
0:56Um, Fantasy Life contributor Alex Cupps. What is, I made those last two things up.
1:00I like, are you, are you considered a Fantasy Life contributor?
1:03Are you full time with, I don't know what, I just know you work for us.
1:08I know we send you money and you give us good fantasy stuff.
1:12Is that fair? That is fair to say. I am not full time at this point.
1:17I do still have a full time software engineering job.
1:20Um, so needless to say, this is the busiest I've ever been in my entire life.
1:24Um, full time job working for Fantasy Life as well, doing, doing some really fun stuff over there.
1:30Very excited to finally be getting into the season, start kicking things off with you guys.
1:35Dude. Yeah. Like, here's my question for you. Um, uh, Alex Cupps.
1:38I also said you were single. Are you single?
1:41I don't know this for a fact. I just, oh, you're married.
1:44I am not. I am married. Yes, definitely not single.
1:47I've been with my, with my now wife since, uh, our junior years in high school.
1:52So a while now. Yeah. Very, very long time.
1:55Your junior year since you're, wait, hang on for a second.
1:58Your junior year in high school? That's right. Yeah.
2:012014. Holy crap. How old were you when you, so your junior year in high school?
2:05Yeah. Can I ask you something? I have to be honest with you, Alex.
2:10Okay. Talk to me. I'm, I want to get into this.
2:13I really want to, I'm like, we're going to get to everything, but it's like, as the teethler returns, Alex Cupps.
2:19And by the way, I should also promote this before we get into this.
2:23Cause I, this is fascinating to me, but, uh, you and I are going to be paired together.
2:28Um, because you know, anyone that ever produces me is like, ah, you know what we should do with that, that old F Barry.
2:36Let's put him with like some young, good looking guy that has a full head of lettuce as a stuntman Chuck notices.
2:42So anyway, Sunday morning, every Sunday morning on the Matthew Barry YouTube channel.
2:46I think it's also going to be on the Amazon fire TV and on the fantasy life fast channel on Amazon fire TV.
2:53Eventually won't be this Sunday, but we're getting it.
2:55It'll eventually be on Amazon as well, but you and I going to do a Sunday morning show, at least for this first week on the chompler.
3:03Nice job, Ruben. That's pretty good. The chompler. I like that one.
3:07Um, anyway, you and I are going to be doing a Sunday morning show, uh, noon Eastern.
3:12So we're gonna do at least just one hour.
3:15Just started slow. We're building the ship as we're built as we're driving it guys.
3:19So, but, uh, Alex and I will be answering all of your questions live on the Matthew Barry YouTube channel, uh, this Sunday noon Eastern.
3:27So please tune in. Uh, we'll have a lot of fun there, but before I get into San Francisco, Los Angeles from
3:33last night and all the starts sit questions we have, the big questions coming up, we're going to do keep it open
3:40and close it out for, uh, the week one slate.
3:43Uh, so you were a junior in high school and you're a, and you're a software engineer.
3:48So my belief is, is that you're very smart.
3:50I don't know about that, but no, you're, you're definitely smart, but I bet you were kind of a nerdy kid.
3:57Um, I definitely was, I was a nerdy kid in high school.
4:00So now, and I know like with the kids today being nerdy, isn't how it was when I was in high school.
4:07So my question is like, did you date a lot when you were a freshman and sophomore in high school?
4:13Yeah, no, no comment on that one. Uh, that was, those were interesting years for me.
4:17What was it? 14, 15. Yeah. Interesting. How were you, were you, were you experimenting?
4:22Were you doing like sexuality? Like what was going on?
4:25We were interesting. You know, I don't, let's just say it was bad for me when Snapchat showed your top three best
4:31friends all at once to the public. Um, you know, you'd have, I'd, I'd have, I'd have three of the girls from
4:38freshman year, like on there at once. And they'd all be mad at me.
4:42You know, it was, it was tough times. I, I didn't know what I was really doing.
4:47I was just kind of like out there trying to talk to as many women as I could, you know, and then
4:53I found my beautiful wife my junior year. Of course.
4:56And that was a blessing. Of course, but I feel like, I feel like what you're telling me now, can I ask how old you are, Alex?
5:04How old are you? I am turning 30 in February.
5:07So I'm 29. Right. You're a young'un, but like since junior high school, so you've been with one woman, basically, you've basically
5:14only been, um, you, I feel like you've only been with, with your beautiful wife, which is, you know, both amazing and,
5:20you know, um, sad, uh, to be honest. Uh, you know, in my adult life, yes.
5:25In my adult life, I've only been with my one beautiful wife and that's, that's all I could ever ask for, man.
5:32She's amazing. She's my best friend. Yeah. Um, and yeah, I'm, I'm glad I've gotten to spend as many years with her as I have since high school.
5:40So yeah, but you called me nerdy in high school.
5:43I would not say I was nerdy in high school.
5:46Oh, I was. I, people in the chat are saying they don't believe it, but trust me guys, I know I'm super
5:52cool now, but you have no idea. I was a little nerdy, uh, in high school because the stuff I'm doing now,
5:59the stuff I'm doing now, I was doing back then.
6:02Now it's cool. Now it pays well, but back then it was just like, what's with nerd boy and all of his stats over there?
6:09You know, you trusted the process, you trusted the process and it paid off eventually.
6:14So you gotta respect that. Why isn't this guy in the parking lot with us drinking Bartles and James?
6:19You know, that's what, that's what the kids were saying back at A&M consolidated high school.
6:24Um, and, uh, and in the late eighties. Um, all right.
6:27All right. So we're going to get into this.
6:30It's fair enough. You've dodged this, this artfully. I just, you know, my wife and I, my, I have a beautiful wife
6:37as well, who I love very much, but thank God, thank God she had been with other people prior to me because,
6:43um, you know, cause like, you know, the pitch that I made to her is like, look, I promise you I won't be the worst.
6:51I just, you know, like think about the list in your life.
6:54I promise you I won't be the worst. And you know, today I think I've, I think I've managed to nail that.
7:01Um, you know, just mediocre, but you know, just not the worst.
7:04That's good. And like, you knew what you were selling her then and you were, you were being completely honest.
7:10But who knows your wife, who knows? Uh, you know, anyway, God bless you guys.
7:15It sounds like you guys have true love, which is rare in these days, day and ages.
7:20So I love that. I do not want the CUPS is to break up.
7:24So we'll move on now to something much more concerning, which is CMC's usage.
7:28Uh, Alex, you're a, you're a, um, you're a data scientist.
7:31You're a software engineer. You study the numbers like any, no one I've ever, uh, met you.
7:36We, we all follow you on social media at CUPS analytics.
7:39How concerned are you about CMC's usage last night?
7:4255% of the snaps for CMC, Keon Black, um, uh, Caitlin Black, I should say, sorry, Caitlin Black, 44%.
7:48Um, yeah, this much is clear. Jordan, all everyone that has those Jordan James shares thinking he was going to be the backup.
7:55You can, uh, you can forget that you can kiss those goodbye for sure.
7:59But yeah, he was inactive for this game. Yeah.
8:01Oh, wow. Yeah. I didn't realize he was also inactive, but okay.
8:05So it's very much so confirmed at this point then that Caitlin Black is going to be the RB two behind Christian McCaffrey.
8:12I do know like there were some reports after the game that they were saying that CMC was dealing with like tightness or cramps throughout the game.
8:20So he was, you know, I, it's hard to take a whole lot away from a week one, like small sample.
8:26But that being said, I mean, the usage for black last night was very, very telling.
8:31One thing that we do over at fantasy life on the data team is we have a utilization score that we look
8:37at that basically compiles a bunch of advanced metrics behind how this player was used, where on the field were they used,
8:44were they used in the red zone, those sorts of things.
8:47Caitlin Black comes out of last night's game with a utilization score of 48.5, which is, you know, not bad, not good,
8:54but being the backup to CMC, it's definitely higher than what people expected.
8:57And to add onto that Blake Corum, who we were taking in, you know, the seventh or eighth round this year, he
9:04had a utilization score last night of 25.6. So I think it's fair to ask, you know, if we were drafting today,
9:10should Kalen Black be going even ahead of Blake Corum or at least around him?
9:15I think that's a very fair point to bring up.
9:18I think he's in, I guess. So there are people that have drafts today, tonight, Saturday.
9:23There's no question about that. And so, um, as Stuntman Chuck says, CMC's usage was a little down under expectation.
9:28Well done, Stuntman Chuck. You know what? From the top rope.
9:32That's well played, my friend. Nice job, Stuntman Chuck.
9:34Part of the, uh, FF regulars guillotine league. We did a listener league cups and, uh, the, the 17 most, uh, the
9:41biggest commenters are in the league, including Stuntman Chuck.
9:44And so shout out to all them. You guys all drink for free, by the way, the regulars drink for free today.
9:50Um, uh, I forgot to mention that at the top of the show.
9:54Uh, so I think that if you are drafting today or if you were drafting Saturday cups, I would say you were
10:01right that in the Corum, um, maybe not as high as Corum, but like definitely in the tank Bigsby range.
10:06Right. I mean, like, I think he's right there with tank somewhere probably between Blake Corum and tank Bigsby, because it does
10:13feel like he's going to have a real role on this game.
10:17He's not just an insurance back, um, to Chris McCaffrey.
10:19And I thought he looked good. I thought it looked really good.
10:23Absolutely. All that, all that said, I'm going to take a slightly contrarian take because I've seen a lot of people on the social media.
10:30They're out there, they're freaking out. They're out there in the streets.
10:34They're, they're, they're, they're lighting their torches. They're yelling, they're screaming, they're pulling their hair out.
10:39They're very upset. And, uh, what I've said to them is like, you know what?
10:43Open up a Bartleson James, take a moment. You'll be all right.
10:47Um, look, it 20 hour flight to Australia. He'd been a little bit banged up in the preseason.
10:52McCaffrey had been, you mentioned there was some cramping going on again.
10:56It's such a weird game. First off, it's week number one.
10:59It's also a weird game after a long flight.
11:02I know they were there all week, but still like, it's, you know, you're not sleeping in your own bed and like, you're in a different country.
11:10Like kangaroos are driving by, you know, like seriously, just ask Jay Croucher about it.
11:14It's, the streets are filled with kangaroos. Um, it's, it's chaos down there and, um, every TV you turn on, they're just showing crocodile Dundee.
11:21So I don't take a ton away from it.
11:24In fact, my contrarian take is that actually, I think CMC should be a buy low.
11:29If there's somebody in your look, you know, if this usage continues in week two, then okay.
11:34But he's still Chris McCaffrey. Who's I think he's still going to get a lot of usage.
11:39This is also a game that they were up big for a while.
11:43So, um, you know, so you look at the overall numbers, they didn't need to use them as well.
11:48Chris McCaffrey saw both of the red zone running back touches in this game.
11:53He played 60% of the snaps in the red zone.
11:56Um, uh, and so, and McCaffrey played 83% of third downs, right?
11:59Blackout snap McCaffrey, 26, 25 on first and second, but 83% of third downs McCaffrey.
12:04So he's still going to be a pass catcher.
12:06And that's where the real value for McCaffrey comes is just his massive passing game usage.
12:11And then you think about the fact that we, that, you know, John Stribling gets injured here.
12:16We'll talk about here in a little bit, but you could see even more increased passing game usage from McCaffrey.
12:22A lot of times last night, you saw him start in the backfield and then go in motion and line up as a wide receiver.
12:29And I suspect you'll see that coming up more and more and more.
12:33So if there's somebody in your league that has McCaffrey and it's panicking, I would pounce.
12:38Cause if you can get them for less than first round value, all in.
12:42He also, he also just looked a lot better than I think the Christian McCaffrey of last year, at least in the
12:49running department, you know, he had, he had at least a couple breakaway plays for 10, 12 plus yards on, on rushes
12:55that I feel like that was not a very common occurrence for CMC in 2025.
13:00Like you mentioned the, the pass usage as well.
13:02I mean, that's, it's the same as it's always been.
13:05He led the team in targets with a five receptions, 20 yards.
13:09I mean, yeah, by low for sure on Christian McCaffrey, if you can just, I really like to see how much better
13:15he looked in the running game than I think a lot of people expected going into this season, age 30, I believe now.
13:22So that, that I think was the most encouraging thing was that he didn't look like complete dust.
13:27Like I think people might've assumed after last year.
13:30Yeah. Another guy that did not look like complete dust, Mike Evans, who was on the preseason love list for me.
13:36There've been wide range of opinions going into the season about Mike Evans.
13:40Some people like, you know, his hammies are, are basically, you know, just great, you know, hardened gravy and he's, you know, he's done.
13:47And other people that think he's going to be this year's Devante Adams, I'm in the, this year's Devante Adams, uh, camp.
13:54He was on the love list. I had him significantly ranked ahead of a consensus.
13:58It's one week. I'm not going to victory lap.
14:01You know, he's got to get through the season.
14:04Part of the argument against Evans was, could he hold up the entire year at a, at a team that's, you know,
14:10got, you know, some sort of haunted substation near it, but look good.
14:14You know, 20% target share six for 49. He catches the touchdown as well.
14:18Debo looked better than I thought he would as well.
14:21Dejon Stribbling, as I mentioned, he gets injured. We know the Achilles is intact, so that's good.
14:26We're still waiting for more information about if he's going to miss time and if he does, how long it will be.
14:33But my expectation here is even though DeMarcus Robinson cut the touchdown cups, I think that Debo Samuel, probably the, the more
14:39likely beneficiary from a fantasy football perspective, if Stribbling is not, is going to miss some time in terms of who could
14:46get, you know, more touches because they use Debo, you know, as they always do in a bunch, in a variety of
14:52ways, getting the ball in his hand, he's out there in over 50% of leagues, Debo Samuel.
14:57So I think he's, I think he's sort of interesting there.
15:00Just curious if you read the situation any differently than I do.
15:04I think we're on the same page there. I think Debo's definitely going to slot in as the wide receiver too here.
15:11DeMarcus Robinson, this is kind of what he does.
15:13You know, he's, he's the field stretcher. He catches one of those deep balls.
15:17He did it on the Rams as well. You know, he, he catches one of those big touchdowns every couple games, but he only had three targets.
15:25He's second on the team. So I'm pretty much on board.
15:29If Debo's available in your league, absolutely. I would go pick him up and you could slot him in as an easy
15:35flex play on a weekly basis, as long as Stribbling is going to be out.
15:40So Cubs, let's move to the other side. And I think the only real look, it was just a, you know, they,
15:46the Rams game, I sort of just want to throw out the, you know, look, they'd been in Australia for, you know, for 20 hours.
15:54I think it was weird. They looked sluggish. They looked out of sync, you know, 49ers defense is legit.
15:59Fully healthy there, but Rams play the giants next week.
16:02I think they'll be fine. They'll get back on track.
16:05So I don't want to panic too much on, you know, on Puka's usage.
16:09You know, I'm not worried, you know, again, and when they got down big, they pulled Kyron, you know, and, but here's my big question.
16:17Matthew Stafford scored 4.1 fantasy points and looked every bit a 38 year old quarterback.
16:21You see the numbers there on your screen, right?
16:24I mean like, you know, 15 to 25, 155 yards does not throw a touchdown when the one touchdown, they got in
16:30close, you know, they gave it to Kyron Williams, which is what they did pretty much all the time prior to last
16:37season, when they just tried to get Stafford that, you know, to the MVP, he was pressured on 45% of his dropbacks
16:43against the 49ers for all the, for all the talk about the Rams defensive line and Miles Garrett.
16:49You know, the fact is, is that it was the Niners that got after Matthew Stafford, again, pressured on 45% of his
16:55dropbacks, 4.1 fantasy points, news or noise on Matthew Stafford's poor week one performance.
16:59I should note last year in week one, Matthew Stafford had 13.6 fantasy points and was QB 19.
17:05He was also not great in week one last year.
17:08And then of course just had a magical season.
17:10Yeah. I, I would say this is more noise than news for Stafford.
17:14You know, it's, it's the first game of the year.
17:17Like you said, they spent, you know, how many hours on a plane before they probably spent more hours on the plane
17:24over the past 48 hours than they did actually in Australia.
17:27Actually, I'm pretty sure that's definitely true. Just a crazy approach to the first ever Australian game.
17:32I would definitely give it at least another week with Matthew Stafford.
17:35I think if anything, this says a lot more about the 49ers defense and what to expect from them this season.
17:42Everyone's healthy. Nick Bosa back, Fred Warner back, like everyone looking great.
17:45So I'd be afraid to play the best playmakers against the 49ers or at least, you know, I'm not, I'm not sitting
17:52them, but I'm definitely thinking twice about what they could have as their expectations when they go up against San Francisco.
17:58I think you're right in the sense, like, I think he's closer to last year than he is to 4.1.
18:04fantasy points. But look, I mean, I had Stafford outside my top 10, like we all expected significant regression this year.
18:10And do I expect it as bad as this was like, you know, no touchdowns and one interception?
18:15No, I think again, they play the Giants next week, they'll get back on track.
18:20But, um, I do think that, uh, you know, I definitely think that, um, you know, he's not nearly this bad.
18:26And, um, as long as there's health, uh, around the team on the Rams, like it'll be okay.
18:31If you went into your league with Stafford as your starting quarterback, I think give it, I'm with you.
18:37If he can't do it against the Giants next week, okay.
18:40Then you can start freaking out a little bit.
18:43But, um, while I'm not expecting last year, I don't think he's nearly this bad.
18:47So dad, I'm hungry. I'm starving. What's for dinner?
18:50If you're like me, you've heard your kids say that a million billion times.
18:54And when they would say that it used to send me running for overpriced takeout, but now my freezer is fully stocked with Omaha steaks.
19:02Having them on hand is like having a trusted butcher shop right in my kitchen.
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19:59We're there. Speaking of news or noise, we got some more clarity on A.J.
20:03Brown, the high ankle sprain. He's going to miss at least four weeks.
20:07You've got Romeo Dobbs, as you see this tweet here from Adam Schefter, an MRI confirmed that Patriots wide receiver A.J.
20:13Brown suffered a high ankle sprain and once a season opening loss to the Seattle Seahawks that is expected to sideline him at least four weeks.
20:21So my question for you, Cups, is twofold, right?
20:23Number one is where do you, where do you, if for people that have drafts today and Saturday, because there are definitely
20:30people that do, I have one, where do you drop A.J.
20:33Brown in your ranks? And then what do you think this does to Drake May, who did not look good in his season debut?
20:40That's a really good question. If I were thinking about...
20:43That's why I asked him. I'm the best, Cups.
20:46I know, man. Like you've been on the scene for 10 seconds.
20:49I've done this for a living, for the love of God.
20:53Yeah. Don't sound surprised. Wow, that was a really good question.
20:56You came with the hard hitters today. Yeah. I would say...
20:59You want to go back to, you know, what you did before your wife in high school?
21:04Because I can get back to there. Let's never get back to there.
21:08We've done it once. That's enough. Fair enough. I would put A.J.
21:12Brown, like if I were drafting this weekend, I'm probably slotting him in behind that tier of the guys like Waddle, McConkie, you know.
21:19I guess the question is like Mike Evans. Where would you have A.J.
21:23Brown versus Mike Evans? I think I'd put A.J.
21:25Brown below Mike Evans as well. I think so too.
21:28So maybe in that high end, I guess mid-range wide receiver three, like would you rather have D.J.
21:33Moore or A.J. Brown? Probably D.J. Moore. I think I'm still going A.J.
21:37Brown there. Like I did a name game with Nate Rabbits yesterday on this very subject as well.
21:43But you and I are on the same page, which I said, you know, like in drafts, there's this range of wide receivers going four through six.
21:51You're going through the fourth and sixth round. And you mentioned like Waddle, McConkie, Zay Flowers is in that range, T.
21:57Higgins at the top of it. And I think he's at the bottom of that tier.
22:02So I think like sort of in the, you know, you know, yes, I agree with you.
22:07I'd put Evans ahead of him. But I think I'd put him ahead of D.J.
22:11Moore. I think I still put him ahead of Terry McLaurin.
22:14You know, but like that's the, I think I'd rather have him than Jamison Williams, though it's close.
22:20Like that's the, but that's, I feel like the right range for me on A.J.
22:24Brown. I think the scary part with A.J. Brown, though, is like, we know he's going to miss four weeks.
22:30And what is he going to look like when he gets back?
22:34I mean, he's already, he's 30 plus years old.
22:36There were already question marks about how he finished 2025.
22:39Like, does he still have the juice? Is he going to have the juice after missing four weeks off an ankle issue?
22:46I mean, additionally, like the usage we saw out of him in this first week, I think it would have been different
22:52if he got hurt and he'd already put up, you know, like a 30 plus percent target share and 80 yards.
22:59It's like, okay, we know he's getting used in this Patriots offense in an effective way.
23:03I don't think we really got that answer before he got hurt, you know?
23:07So there's a lot of factors there. There are.
23:10You can buy juice, Joe, just so you know.
23:13Hey, real quickly, talk to me about how you, what is the benefit of, so I think we're on the same page
23:19more or less in terms of where you would draft AJ Brown.
23:23And I get that you, there's, you, you probably have a little bit more concern when he comes back than I do.
23:29Maybe I just, you know, I, I root for the old guys a little bit more than you do, but you're, you're an age hater.
23:37No. Eight Cups, what do you think about who benefits in the short term here for New England?
23:42Is it, you know, do we think it just gets spread around?
23:46Like, you know, you got Romeo Dobbs, Matt Collins, Pop Douglas, Kyle Williams, the second year player.
23:51He's there as well. Hunter Henry, um, at, at, at tight end, Eli Raritan catches the first touchdown of the season.
23:57That was, of course he does. Yeah. Um, where are you, where are you on the Patriots pass catchers?
24:03Does anyone emerge as the, uh, as the alpha here or does it just get spread around?
24:08I, I hate to say this because Romeo Dobbs looked so bad in this first game, but he would probably be the
24:14guy, the one guy left that I would like trust on a week to week basis, at least like going into week two.
24:21I mean, the usage is going to be there.
24:24We've seen guys like this have like really, really bad week ones and bounce back.
24:28So I wouldn't write this as like the death note for Romeo Dobbs, as much as it feels like that on social
24:35media right now, if somebody drops him in your league, he would be probably my, one of my number one waiver wire
24:41pickups going into week two, just because the usage is going to be there in what's supposed to be one of the best offenses in the league.
24:49Obviously they didn't look like it in week one, but he would be where I would go first.
24:54Also, I'd like to note Travion Henderson is someone I'm very interested in buying low on with how Ramondre looked in week
25:01one and with the passing game opening up more, we know Travion Henderson can be an effective pass catcher and explosive pass catcher.
25:08If he's given that opportunity, he would be someone I'd be interested in sending out some buy low offers for as well.
25:14Yeah. I think that's an interesting take. I like that.
25:17Um, I agree with you. I think Travion Henderson, I think the hate's gone too far on him.
25:23I still prefer Ramondre Stevenson for the season, regardless of how he looked at the fact.
25:27I mean, it was the Seahawks defense. I mean, the whole offense looked terrible, uh, for new England.
25:33Uh, Ramondre is still going to get a lot of work, even if it's not the most efficient.
25:38Uh, he's still going to get a lot of work.
25:41Um, if you need a wide receiver, if you have AJ Brown, it's worth checking your waiver wire now.
25:47No, don't wait until next Tuesday. I mean, if there's one positive of a Wednesday game, it's like, okay, now, you know,
25:53so we just mentioned Debo Samuel, but guys that are available in more than 50% of pretty much every league out there.
26:00In addition to Debo, um, you may not be able to pick him up cause he's already played, but how about Khalil
26:06Shakir, Trey Tucker, um, Denzel Boston in Cleveland, Kayshawn Booty, uh, in Houston, Jacoby Lane.
26:11Jacoby Lane is one that I would circle just hearing all sorts of great buzz out of the rookie from Baltimore.
26:17Jacoby Lane, I think is really interesting. Both Miami guys, Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas in that order.
26:22One of those guys from like these bad teams, like whether it's Trey Tucker or Jalen Naylor or Jack Besh from the
26:29Raiders, there's going to be somebody from the Raiders.
26:31This can be fantasy relevant. Somebody from the, um, uh, you know, uh, the Browns.
26:36I love Casey Concepcion, but Denzel Boston's out there, um, as well.
26:39Somebody from the Dolphins, um, you know, whether it's, uh, you know, uh, Bell or Douglas, I, I've heard them and prefer them in that order.
26:47And then, um, and then I'll also mention Dontavian Wicks, you know, Dontavian Wicks and Malachi Fields are two, two guys that
26:54are out there in a ton of leagues that I think will have bigger roles than people expect after week one.
27:00So those are some wide receivers. Last one real quickly for you, but, and then we're getting to keep it open and close it out.
27:07Uh, Alex Cups, among the things you do for us at fantasylife.com is you do rankings, you do weekly rankings, you do
27:14season long rankings, um, for people that are drafting over the next two weeks, uh, for the next two days.
27:20And then for the next four weeks without AJ Brown, are you dropping Drake may in your rankings?
27:25I would maybe move Drake made down a little bit.
27:28I, yeah, actually that's a really good point that I think I should revisit the QB rankings there.
27:33I'd probably move him down to that backend QB one range, probably around a guy like Jared Goff or, uh, Brock Purdy, perhaps.
27:40Um, I think this definitely does impact him in terms of his ceiling because so much of what we were baking into
27:47Drake may's cost and his price in 2026 was this, this big jump in terms of having a wide receiver, one, a
27:53real wide receiver for one for the first time in his career.
27:57Um, and what that could mean for his own fantasy outlook.
28:00So I do think this does play a role in like what we'd expect from Drake may I'm probably moving him down like four or five spots.
28:08Yeah. I agree with you. Like, um, I don't know if I'm moving him as far down as like golf and Brock Purdy.
28:15Although I tell you, boy, did, boy, did Brock Purdy look good.
28:18Brock Purdy look really good. But like, I do think, like, I think that if I were drafting today or tomorrow, like
28:25I think I'd move them pat, like I'd rather have Justin Herbert.
28:28I'd rather have Caleb Williams. Like those are guys that I have in like, you know, I have Herbert at seven.
28:35Like that's the, you know, um, like I think I'd, cause yes, I, the positives of Drake may is that he still ran for over 40 yards.
28:43Uh, I still like the play caller. The schedule gets easier.
28:46I mean, well, no, that's the, that's actually the point.
28:49They play Pittsburgh next week. The schedule doesn't get easier.
28:52That's one of the concerns with the Patriots is that last year they had this last place schedule this year.
28:58They've got a first place schedule. It's a much tougher schedule for New England this year.
29:03So, um, so yeah, I'd like, I'd prefer like Herbert and Caleb Williams.
29:06Like I'd move them down to a list. Like, you know, inside my top 10, but like, you know, more in the
29:13eight to 10 range, as opposed to the, you know, three to four range that he was going, uh, previous to the AJ Brown injury.
29:20Speaking of Caleb Williams, that brings us to keep it open or close it out.
29:25For those new to the happy hour bar, uh, the idea here is just, you know, like, like you have at a
29:31tab, like you're at a bar and you're drinking and you, you know, you go for like your third drink, um, up
29:38to the bartender and the bartender says, you know, you want to keep it open.
29:42You want to keep your tab open or are you going to close it out?
29:47Like you had done feels like three's a lot.
29:49You've been here for a little while. You've struck out with everyone.
29:53Um, for the love of God, go away. I've not that this has ever happened to me.
29:58I've just seen it to other people. Um, but, uh, that's the premise here.
30:02Are we keeping it open? Are we closing it out?
30:05Alex cups. And I start with Caleb Williams playing the Carolina Panthers on the road.
30:10Yeah. So I have Caleb as my QB 14 on the week, a little bit of a disappointment considering where you drafted Caleb Williams.
30:17You know, he was going in that range of the other elite quarterbacks around Jalen Hertz, Jay Daniels, Drake may.
30:23He was in that similar tier to those guys in terms of their price.
30:27The way I do my rankings, I should preface this because as a data guy, you know, the stuff I'm doing for fantasy life is very data centric.
30:35I did my master's in data science. I really base my rankings off of data and not as much of vibes.
30:41Like I'm looking at our fantasy life projections. I'm looking at the prop lines for these players in Vegas.
30:47I'm looking at what prediction markets say about these players, like an implied fantasy totals, basically just like how big of a
30:53pool can I get of what people think this player is going to do.
30:58And Caleb comes in a little lower than I think people would expect in week one.
31:02That's why I have him at QB 14 fantasy life projections have him at QB 10.
31:07But when we look at other stuff like Vegas and prediction markets, they're a little lower on him, bringing him down for me to that QB 14 range.
31:15I think playing Carolina, this feels like a game that could get very run heavy for the bears right out of the gates.
31:22It might not be a very competitive game. So, you know, I know that Ben Johnson did say this off season, he
31:29wants to score the most points in the entire NFL's history.
31:32So, you know, I'm not one to doubt Ben Johnson.
31:35Maybe that's what they do. And maybe they just, you know, continue to run up the score on Carolina.
31:41If that's the case, the projections are going to look very different for Caleb in week two.
31:46So our graphics says QB 15. So you move Caleb a little bit, but you sounds like you're still, you're closing it out on Caleb Williams.
31:53I'm going to keep it open on him. I'm at QB 11.
31:57As you mentioned, look, the fact is Panthers, you talk about Vegas, Panthers have an implied team total of 20 over 24 points.
32:04That's the seventh highest in week number one. Last year, the Panthers 31st in the NFL in pressure rate.
32:09Right now, I know they got, they signed Jalen Phillips, but Nick Scorton tore his ACL.
32:14Like, I think, I don't think they're going to be able to get to Caleb who's got one of the better offensive lines.
32:21And again, adds more with his legs than anyone gives him credit for.
32:25He's one of two quarterbacks last season to rank top seven at the position in both passing yards and rushing yards.
32:31So yeah, I'm in on Caleb. I agree with you.
32:34I think the game could get a little bit run heavy, but I think part of the running will be Caleb Williams.
32:40And I don't want to doubt. And Carolina is one of those weird places.
32:45It always feels like a trap game there. And it's going to be hot and muggy in North Carolina.
32:50But so again, I don't know how it was a high on QB1, but I do have him as a starter this week.
32:57I'm QB11. I'm going to keep it open on Caleb Williams.
33:00We've got about 20 minutes left, Cupsie. I've decided Cupsie is your new nickname.
33:04We'll see if it sticks. What does your wife call you?
33:08What is your wife who's known you forever? She's the only one that calls me Alex.
33:12What does she call you? She calls you Alex?
33:15She's the only one in the, I guess my mom.
33:18My mom and her parents call me Alex. Everyone calls me Cups.
33:22You can call me Cupsie. That one's been around.
33:24I was called Sippy Cups in high school baseball.
33:27People call me Sip. People would call my girlfriend Mrs.
33:30Sip. Oh, I like that. Yeah, that's kind of clean, huh?
33:33For the record, from now on, I don't want to know your wife's name.
33:37I don't want to know your wife's name. From now on till the end of time, she is Mrs.
33:43Sip. Mrs. Sip. There we go. I love it.
33:46All right, Cups in Mrs. Sips. All right, Cupsie.
33:48Let's stay in that same game here. We'll just have to go quicker here because I've got a lot of names to get through.
33:55Keep it open or close it out on Chuba Hubbler.
33:58The Chubbler. Chuba Hubbler is playing, the Chubbler is playing Chicago.
34:02Where are you on Chuba Hubbard this week? I am definitely keeping it open on Chuba Hubbler.
34:07I have him higher than consensus. You have him at 26.
34:10I am at RB21. The data loves Hubbler this week.
34:13Fantasy Life projects him for 12.7 points per game.
34:16That's RB19 this week. Vegas and prediction markets, similar things.
34:18So the DVP, which is something we do at Fantasy Life, defense versus position.
34:23Chicago ranks 24th in fantasy points projected against running backs.
34:26And that's good. The higher number, the better. You don't want to be in that one, two, three range.
34:31So that's really good for Chuba Hubbler. I think with Jonathan Brooks coming back from injury, everything bodes well for Hubbard in week one.
34:38So he'll be a guy that I'll definitely be looking to keep it open on.
34:43Yeah, I'm lower on him and the ranks than you are, but I agree with him.
34:48Keeping it open. He's not on the injury report at all.
34:51Brooks has that groin. He was limited on Wednesday.
34:53Panthers top 10 in rush rate last season, top 12 in running back rush attempts.
34:58Dave Canales likes to run it in general. The Bears don't have a great run defense, or at least they didn't last year.
35:05They allowed the fourth highest yards per carry to opposing running backs last season in the NFL.
35:10And to your point, Dave Canales is reading the same things we are.
35:14Oh, oh, you think you're going to throw it all over us?
35:17Well, not if you don't have the ball. So I do think they go run heavy here because there are other options to let Bryce throw it.
35:25So yeah, I'm going to keep it open on Chuba Hubbard.
35:28I think he's a high end flex this week.
35:31You have him as a low end RB too.
35:34Let's move to the Denver Broncos. This will be a really fun game.
35:38Denver and Kansas City. The game's in Arrowhead. But J.K.
35:41Dobbins, where are you on the Dobbler? J.K. Dobbins.
35:43The Dobbler. Yeah, I see I'm a little higher than you.
35:47I'd probably close it out on J.K. Dobbins this week just because I really don't know what we're going to get in this backfield.
35:54I would venture to guess that he's going to be the first running back to see the field out of R.J.
36:00Harvey, Jonah Coleman, obviously more of a long shot being a rookie.
36:03But I think R.J. Harvey might eat into the work more than we'd hope going into his second season.
36:09Also, Kansas City is third in DVP against running backs.
36:12So over at Fantasy Life, that's not good. It actually on average knocks down the scoring for running backs against Kansas City by 2.04 points per game.
36:20So that puts J.K. Dobbins at the Fantasy Life projected RB 37 this week.
36:24I'm a little higher on him because the other data I'm looking at says it's a little more promising, but still not
36:31someone I'd be wanting to keep it open for in week one.
36:34Yeah, the Chiefs had a top 10 run defense in 2025.
36:37And it really comes down to do you think J.K.
36:40Dobbins falls into the end zone? Because last year, there were six games in which he didn't score.
36:46Six games in which J.K. Dobbins did not score a touchdown.
36:49He was single digit fantasy points in four of them.
36:52He's fairly touchdown dependent because he's a nothing in the past game, a 4% target share last year, a 4% target share.
36:59So he really needs to score to pay off.
37:01I'm running back 35. It's a tough matchup on the road at Kansas City.
37:05I'm going to close it out on J.K. Dobbins.
37:08I think you see Jonah Coleman more than you.
37:11I mean, I'm with you on Harvey, but I think it's going to be a three-headed monster.
37:16I think you see Jonah Coleman immediately get some work.
37:19And I don't know that you'd want to start Jonah Coleman, but he should be rostered.
37:23Jonah Coleman, that is, in every single league. Hey, you mentioned him earlier when we were talking about A.J.
37:29Brown, but D.J. Moore makes his Bills debut on the road at Houston.
37:33And Texans, of course, one of the best defenses in the NFL, but it's D.J.
37:37Moore, and he's got Josh Allen throwing to him.
37:40Proud Fantasy Life investor, Josh Allen, I should mention.
37:43Where are you, Cupsie, on D.J. Moore? Yeah, I am a little higher than you on D.J.
37:48Moore, and that's mainly just because the data I'm seeing out of Vegas props and prediction market data has him substantially higher than Fantasy Life does.
37:55That has him in the mid-wide receiver two, or I guess low-end wide receiver two range.
38:00Fantasy Life projections that include DVP, definitely not very bullish on D.J.
38:04Moore in week one against this Houston secondary. The DVP-adjusted Fantasy Life projections have him at wide receiver 42 at 9.7 points in week one.
38:11So I'm a little higher than that. I think I'd keep it open for D.J.
38:16Moore as a low-end flex option this week, but don't be surprised to see him go out there and get locked up by this Houston secondary.
38:23The Texans are so good. That said, they did allow the fourth highest yards per reception to opposing wide receivers last season.
38:30It's his first game. I do think Josh Allen's going to want him going.
38:34Look, again, I'm at 32, so I'm a little bit lower even than you, but we're both higher than the consensus at Fantasy Life.
38:41I will reluctantly keep it open in three wide receiver leagues.
38:44If you play in a 10- or 12-team league where you only have to start two wide receivers, I'm going to close it out.
38:51But if you're in a 12-team three-wide receiver league, which Cups, you and I are both in, in the Fantasy Life Cup,
38:58an internal contest we're having with all the guys.
39:01So that's a 12-team three-wide receiver league. If I had D.J.
39:04Moore in the Fantasy Life Cup, I would, in fact, keep it open.
39:08So I'm going to keep it open as a low-end wide receiver three this week on D.J.
39:13Moore. By the way, it just occurred to me as I said this, you know, the Fantasy Life Cup, did we name that contest after you?
39:21Does somebody get a dream date with you if they win this league?
39:24I mean, it sounds like, yeah, maybe, maybe that should be one of the rewards.
39:29I don't know who's paying for the bill, though.
39:31We'll have to maybe pull that from the Fantasy Life funds.
39:35The answer is it's me. I pay for it all.
39:38That's the problem. It's all me. It's all comes out, much of the chagrin of my wife, it all comes out of my pocketbook there.
39:45All right, this one's the most interesting one, I think, of all of them.
39:49Because last year, without Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson was en fuego.
39:53But Marvin Harrison is back. They did sign Wilson to a big deal in the offseason, Cupsie.
39:58They, you know, they, and they have a new offensive coordinator, new head coach, new system.
40:02Where are you on Michael Wilson this week against the Chargers in L.A.?
40:06Yeah, I'm definitely lower on Michael Wilson this week.
40:09I would venture to even say I'm closing it out with him.
40:12Just because Chargers, fourth in DVP against wide receivers, that's not great.
40:16On average, minus 2.73 points allowed to wide receivers.
40:19I'm just not really expecting a whole lot of big things out of Michael Wilson this week.
40:24I think we're going to learn so much. This is one of the more interesting situations that I want to monitor in
40:30week one is what does the utilization look like for Michael Wilson when Marvin Harrison's on the field and healthy to open the year?
40:37So I'd be hesitant to trust it week one, just like you said, based on what we saw with both of them
40:44on the field at once last year. I think we're going to learn a lot.
40:48I'd probably rather sit Michael Wilson this week until we have more information.
40:52But that being said, you know, he could go out there and surprise us.
40:56But I'm going to keep it closed out on Michael Wilson in week one.
41:00So I'm closing it out as well. I'm at wide receiver 40.
41:04Last year with Marvin Harrison on the field, 13% target share averages 5.5 fantasy points per game.
41:09This is, you know, I do a column for us at fantasylife.com.
41:13You can go check it out. 10 facts you need to know before week one.
41:17And one of my facts was exactly what I just told you is that like when Harrison was on the field last
41:24year, 13% target share, five and a half points per game for Michael Wilson.
41:28So I'm at wide receiver 40 and I'd like to see it.
41:31By the way, chargers have like a bottom five implied team total per our friends in Las Vegas for a week on the week one slate.
41:39All that said, I got something interesting for you that like, so I put that fact out.
41:44Wilson was on the hate list. You know, I did the love hate show yesterday with Nate Rabbits.
41:49And I was talking to a friend of mine, another, candidly, another guy who's a proud fantasy life investor.
41:55And he's a really good source for me because he's, I won't say how, but he, he knows a lot of players,
42:01a lot of coaches around the league. He's very plugged in.
42:05And he says to me, he says, you know, why you hate Wilson?
42:09You're going to look stupid on that one. Like, really?
42:12I said, you know, listen, make no mistake. I've looked stupid before.
42:15I'll look stupid again. Stupid's my little name, but like, why am I going to look stupid on Michael Wilson?
42:21And they're like, they're running the Rams offense. Wilson's going to be in the puka role.
42:26He's going to catch everything. He's playing the puka role in the Rams offense.
42:30There's a reason they paid him in the off season.
42:33Michael Wilson's going to like my, this guy who's like a crazy fantasy player, like you and I, he's just like, I got Wilson everywhere.
42:40So I'm like, ah, so I just want to point that out that I'm still closing it out.
42:46I want to see it, you know, because Alex cups, I could play the puka role and it doesn't mean anything.
42:52Like I, I wouldn't do crap. You know, we like Michael Wilson.
42:55We root for Michael Wilson. He was a league winner last year, but honestly, he ain't puka Nakua at this stage of his career.
43:03Not yet. And Jacoby Brissett is not Matthew Stafford.
43:05Right. So I've just, and, and, you know, we like LeFleur, but he's not Sean McVay at this point.
43:11Yeah. As a Ruben says, bury the stupid lure.
43:13Yeah. I mean, honestly, so I'm just owning this is that like, I'm keeping it closed.
43:18I want to see it, but I did want to point out that like, um, there's a decent chance that my buddy's right.
43:25And I, you and I cups, especially me look very, very stupid on Monday morning.
43:29So I just wanted to throw that out there.
43:32I thought that was interesting. It was just an interesting comment that my friend said to me, uh, when he, the other
43:39night, when he, when he read my column and I was just like, Oh, um, and I did, I did a draft
43:45last night where I drafted Michael Wilson. Cause I was, I don't have many shares of him this year.
43:51And I'm just like, let me just see. Yeah, no, he's, he's one of the ones that definitely has the most potential to burn me.
43:58And if he's the guy you need in 2026, I'm going to be very poor because I do not have enough.
44:04I do not have enough Michael Wilson. Absolutely not.
44:07Neither do I, um, Puka roll a new data point for the season says Brian Hickman.
44:12All right, fair enough. Anyway, so we will see, does he in fact have the Puka roll?
44:17Somebody who doesn't have the Puka roll, but does have a good matchup this weekend is Dallas Goddard who gets my beloved, but not great Washington commanders.
44:25Um, where are you on Dallas Goddard? No AJ Brown for Philly.
44:28Yeah, I, I'm a little lower. I can see you're way higher on Goddard than I am.
44:34I have him more as like a borderline tight end one.
44:37I have him at tight end 13. You have a tight end six.
44:41It really just comes down to the fact that he doesn't project super well for our median outcome.
44:46When you don't take into account his, uh, like the, the red zone usage in terms of, I would, I would wager
44:52to say he has one of the higher upsides at the entire position to get into the end zone, but in terms
44:59of raw usage as a receiver, it definitely doesn't look as clean for Dallas Goddard.
45:03He comes out as 12th in Vegas, his prop yardage line at 35 and a half around guys like Isaiah likely Brennan strange, Dalton Schultz.
45:11So he doesn't really project differently there. That being said, you know, if he gets into the end zone and is utilized
45:17like he was last year by the Eagles in the red zone, um, he could outperform my ranking very easily.
45:23Last year, top eight among tight ends in target share last season.
45:27And when to your point about red zone usage last year, when AJ Brown was off the field, 60% red zone target
45:33share for, uh, for Dallas Goddard, by the way, last year, no team in the NFL, only one team.
45:39I should, I take this back. Only one team in the NFL allowed more touchdowns to opposing tight ends than my Washington commanders.
45:46Now the commander spent the off season really improving their defense.
45:49I think their defense is gonna be a lot better this year.
45:53I really liked the off season for Washington, but still, um, again, with AJ Brown gone, Don Tavian wicks, just getting there.
45:59Makai lemon has been banged up in the preseason.
46:02Like it would not surprise anyone. I think that if we looked up on Monday at the, the Eagles box score that
46:08Devante Smith had the most targets and Dallas Goddard had the second most in a win against my commanders.
46:14So I'm keeping it open very much. So on Goddard again, I'm a tight end six.
46:19I think he has a big game, uh, against my commanders.
46:22I hope I'm wrong, but I probably won't be because I so rarely am Alex so rarely am.
46:27All right. Um, last one here, Michael Mayer, uh, erstwhile tight end of the Raiders suddenly, uh, thrust into the spotlight with the Brock Bowers injury.
46:35He's getting meniscus trimmed. How's your meniscus? Is it long?
46:38Does it needs to be trimmed? I need to go to the meniscus store and get a little trim like a barber
46:45shop, you know, do they have a meniscus barber shop?
46:47Just give me a little trim, clean it up on the sides.
46:51Just a little, just a little trim. Look, um, look, you, you need a trim.
46:55I love trim. Um, you know, my meniscus gets long cupsy.
46:59I always get it trimmed. I'm like, yeah, give me that trim.
47:02Like I'm constantly searching for it constantly everywhere. Can I, where can I, where can I get it?
47:08Where can I get it cheaply? Um, you know, uh, so, uh, Brock Bauer is going to get a meniscus trim and,
47:14uh, which means Michael Mayer, I'm sorry, Brock Bauer is, yeah.
47:17Um, which means Michael Mayer is the starting tight end for your Las Vegas Raiders of Anaheim.
47:22Uh, look five career games where Michael Mayer has gotten at least a 18% target share.
47:27He's averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. Nice matchup against Miami.
47:30They've allowed the fifth most yards to tight end last season.
47:34And I look at your ranking there. I look at your ranking tight end six.
47:38You love you some Michael Mayer. I do. It's like, it's like your first, it's like your wife.
47:43You love Michael Mayer so much. Well, I would flip it back on you, Barry, after all the things you just said,
47:50and then looking at your ranking, what's going on there?
47:53I think we need to get that up. I think it's a fair question.
47:57I think it's a, I think it's a very fair question, cupsy.
48:01And I'll tell you exactly why. Um, and it's a little bit of theory and it's probably too complicated, but, uh, my
48:07thought process is that like, I think Michael Mayer is a good streamer this week that if you lost Brock Bowers, you know what I mean?
48:15Like great. And, and, uh, if you lost Brock Bowers specifically and you can throw him in your IR spot, grab Michael Mayer.
48:22If you have a tight end that has a, and you have somebody else that you could drop, or there's somebody else
48:28that, you know, isn't going to play that you can open up a roster spot and grab Michael Mayer.
48:34I think he's a good streamer this week. I'm cl I would be closer to where you have them ranked than where
48:40I do again in a world where you, you didn't have to drop anyone good, but in a world where you had,
48:47you know, you think about some of the, those kind of that eight through 11 tight ends where you have a Mark
48:53Andrews, a Travis Kelsey, a Dalton Kincaid, somebody like that.
48:56Like I'm not advocating, like I w would I rank him ahead of those guys?
49:01Yes. But would I say like, you should drop Dalton Kincaid or Mark Andrews or Travis Kelsey to pick up Mike Michael
49:07Mayer because, um, for one week or a couple, you know, who knows how long it'll be with Bowers.
49:13But like, I don't think the difference between Mayer who has a very good matchup this week, the difference between what I
49:20think Mayer will do this week versus what, what an Andrews or a Kincaid or, or Kelsey will do.
49:25I mean, Kelsey's got the Broncos, which is tough matchup, but you know what in general, like, I just don't want you
49:32dropping like a usable tight end for the season, just for a one or two week pickup in Michael Mayer, because we
49:38know as soon as Bowers come back, he's useless.
49:41So that's sort of my, my thought process there is I didn't want somebody to be like, oh, I'm a tight end six.
49:48Let me go. Let me go try to go grab him and drop a useful player.
49:52But if you do have a roster spot available where it's easy to create space, I would have them closer to you.
49:59Cause I do think it's a good matchup. I do think he's going to get a lot of the usage.
50:05I'm not really, you know, like there's a, there's definitely a chance, like the offense is the offense.
50:10And I assume that Clint Kubiak has spent the entire off season, like, Hey, we've got an offense that's tight end centric.
50:17Cause he gets there and he's just like, who's the best guy I got?
50:21It's Brock Bowers. It's him and Gentie. I'm going to design an offense around those two guys.
50:26And so he's not going to suddenly like up now we're doing a bunch of bubble screens to Trent, Trey Tucker.
50:32Like, I mean, like, you know, it's going to be, it's going to be their offense.
50:37So I, he's going to be, I think he'll be the focal point to an extent, at least against the dolphins for this Raiders offense.
50:44But that was, that's the reasoning behind my ranking.
50:47I think you, well, yeah, you nailed it then.
50:50Cause like for me, I haven't been tied in six solely as a performer this week.
50:54But when you take in the context of like, who can you drop for this guy?
50:59Well, I would also not recommend you drop a Kelsey or a Kinkade or an Andrews, or even, even a guy like Juwan Johnson.
51:06I would, I would rather keep Juwan Johnson over Michael Mayer and just eat whatever, you know, one to two point projection
51:13difference there is between the two of them this week.
51:16So that being said in a vacuum, I love Michael Mayer this week.
51:20Like he does rank as the sixth best tight end in week one, particularly.
51:24So yeah, the matchup is unbelievable. DVP for the Miami dolphins against tight ends 28th.
51:28They average 1.6 more points against the dolphins than other teams at the tight end position.
51:33He's loved by the prediction markets have him at tight end five Vegas has him at tight end six fantasy life hasn't
51:39been tight end six when you take into account DVP as well.
51:43So he's up there, man. He's, he's a great, great start this week, but understand you don't want to drop your back
51:50end tight end one for this guy just for a couple of weeks while Bowers is out.
51:55Let's go to our full screen right now. Just to recap, we're keeping it open on Caleb Williams.
52:00Uh, right. Are you, are you keeping, are you closing it out?
52:03You have a QB 15. I, so let me clarify, just keep it open and close it out.
52:09Am I closing it out on him for the year or am I closing it out?
52:14Just for this week. Just for this week. I would close it out on Caleb Williams this week.
52:19I'm keeping it open on Caleb Williams. We're both, we're both keeping it open on Chuba Hubbard, DJ Moore, Dallas Goddard and
52:25Michael Mayer, where we're closing it out on JK Dobbins and DJ Moore.
52:29What does Mississippi do for a living cupsy? She actually works at the same company that I do.
52:35We both work from home. We work, we share a wall or off.
52:38She's right over there when I'm working. I'm right here.
52:41Um, she does like learning and development and training for people at our company.
52:46Okay. And I do software engineering at our company.
52:48We don't really cross paths too much, but occasionally I will get an email that was meant for her.
52:54She'll get an email that was meant for me.
52:56It's kind of funny how, uh, how that works at our company.
53:00It uses our last name. How did that work out?
53:03Did you, we only have 55 seconds left, but like, did you, did you guys, or you guys been together since high school?
53:10Did you apply to the same company at the same time?
53:13Or did one of you get the other one into the company?
53:17Yeah. So it's, we kind of had some ties to the company from our families and stuff.
53:22When we graduated, I graduated away. I graduated a year earlier than she did.
53:26Um, I got a job there and then, yeah, I kind of tried to help bring her in as well.
53:32Yeah. Yeah, sure. Um, listen, only 30 seconds left.
53:34Alex Cups, you and I will be back here at noon Eastern on Sunday for, uh, last call.
53:40I'm going to call it last call, uh, there where we will answer everyone's questions on the Matthew Barry YouTube channel.
53:46Check out all of Alex Cups' work at fantasylife.com, including mine as well.
53:50My 10 facts column, follow him on, uh, X at cups analytics.
53:53It's closing time, which means you don't have to go home, but you can't stay here for Alex Cups.
53:59I'm Matthew Barry. We'll see you Sunday morning. Peace out.

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