0:00Welcome to the Fantasy Football Happy Hour. I am not Matthew Berry.
0:04My name is actually Peter Overzet. I have been writing Matthew Berry's newsletter, the Fantasy Life newsletter, for over five years now,
0:11so I guess I can be a decent proxy.
0:14But if you are actually looking for a Matthew to be here, we are not leaving you hanging because I have Matthew Friedman from Fantasy Life.
0:22We are going to be your host today. Matthew, welcome to Matthew Berry's Happy Hour.
0:26Thank you. It's great to be here. Around the company, I'm sort of known as the wet blanket.
0:32I definitely bring the hate. So we don't have love-hate, but at least we have the more important part of it.
0:39We have the dark side. We do, and I'm sure the chat is going to be absolutely thrilled with us today.
0:45No Matthew Berry and a man who just claimed to be a wet blanket.
0:50I know when you previously were on this show, you had some takes that the commenters absolutely hated.
0:55Although, is there one you want to circle back to?
0:59I know you had some strong words about Bo Nix when you came on.
1:03Yeah, I will just say, you know, one of my fades for the season was Bo Nix.
1:08I feel like in the chat, shout out the chat, great action in there.
1:13The chat, they weren't really receptive to it. But, and I will say, you know what?
1:18For at least one week, the Bo Nix hatred seemed to pay off.
1:22And I'm ranking him as the QB 18 for this week.
1:25So I'm sticking with it with the Bo Nix hatred.
1:28We'll see how it goes. But, you know, Davis Webb maybe left something to be desired as a play caller on Monday Night Football.
1:36We'll just, we'll see how this unwinds. And we are going to talk more Bo Nix later in the show when we get to the start sets.
1:44We're going to decide if we're going to keep it open or close it out with Bo Nix against the Jags.
1:51But we do have a little other housekeeping we need to do today because apparently, Matthew, Mr.
1:56Barry left us a message for this show. We are in a league with him in an industry league called the Flex
2:03Best Ball Leagues hosted by Jake Seeley. Both of us drafted those in August.
2:08I don't know what Matthew's about to say to us, but I've been told there's something.
2:13Let's see what he says. Wow. Wow. Now, Matthew Friedman, do you have any words for Matthew now that we have week
2:20one in the books of the 2026 contest? Because I pulled up the results and there's a Matthew sitting in first place,
2:27but it's not the one with the last name Barry.
2:30There is. What has two thumbs and likes beating Matthew Berry in week one of fantasy best ball?
2:35This guy. All right. 200 points. And Pete, I will say you were number four.
2:40Matthew Barry, number five. So he can talk trash if he wants on his show.
2:45I mean, he's not here today to talk trash to us.
2:48You know, we're the ones who showed up. Where are you, Matthew Barry?
2:52But he can talk trash to us whenever he wants.
2:56But look, just look at the scoreboard. After week one, we are in the lead.
3:00I got to say this roster that Matthew Friedman has in this league is insane.
3:05This is every week one smash you can imagine.
3:08Josh Allen, Chuba Hubbard, Kenneth Walker, Justin Jefferson, Parker Washington and Trey McBride.
3:12So congratulations, Mr. Friedman, for one week. Everything came together for you.
3:16Yeah, it's the most important week of the season.
3:18And I anticipate this league will not be discussed on here the rest of the season unless Matthew is in first place,
3:25in which case I'm sure he will bring it up again.
3:29But that is your best ball update with a few industry thought leaders.
3:33Mr. Matthew Friedman, though, we have I can't like I keep wanting to call you Matthew.
3:38And I think that's going to trigger some people who tune in the chat and they're like, that's not Matthew.
3:44So today you're just Mr. Matthew Friedman. Are you OK with that?
3:48Look, you can just drop the Mr. Friedman is fine.
3:51All right. I'm going to go with Friedman. You're right.
3:54You don't deserve the Mr. Let's talk some news here.
3:57We have a lot of injury related stuff that is going to, you know, dictate some of our decisions for week two in fantasy.
4:05The first one I want to talk about here is Jeremiah Love.
4:09So this was really encouraging coming off of the ankle injury.
4:12There was a lot of questions. Is he even going to play week one?
4:17Not only does he play, but he gets a touchdown.
4:20They're giving him a goal line carry. They say he wasn't on a snap count in week one.
4:25I'm curious what you saw in the usage from him and how you feel about him going against a tough Seattle defense in week two.
4:33Well, I think he's someone that you're probably still going to want to be a little tentative about in week two.
4:40If you have him, you're probably starting him as a flex.
4:43But he did play behind Tyler Algier, who was decent enough and has kind of been like a professional, you know, pain
4:50in the butt for like stud running backs. Like think of B.
4:54John Robinson and how awesome he could have been in some previous seasons if not having to split work with Tyler Algier.
5:01And so eventually I expect Jeremiah Love to take over the backfield.
5:05But for week two, I think he's still going to be splitting it with Algier, who had more snaps, more carries.
5:11And then, of course, a really tough matchup against the Seahawks defense, which has extra days of rest.
5:17Again, diminished expectations for Jeremiah Love in week two.
5:20But what we saw in week one is encouraging for the season outlook.
5:24Here, I'll toss one at you because I was looking at one of my high stakes leagues where I'm going to have a decision this week.
5:32Basically, like two of Jeremiah Love, Rico Dowdle in Matthew Golden.
5:36Like, how do you think about Jeremiah Love in a tough matchup versus someone like Golden who's coming off of an awesome usage?
5:43Like, are you confident starting Love in week two and hoping the role even grows more?
5:48Yeah, I mean, I would. That's a great one.
5:51I would probably still start Love ahead of Golden because, I mean, wide receiver production is so variable.
5:56Like, we feel pretty good about, like, the projection in terms of the usage Jeremiah Love will get.
6:02And I will also say that Cardinals offense, granted, you know, going against a very different defense this week.
6:08But that Cardinals offense last week looked significantly better than expected.
6:11So if Jeremiah Love had, you know, 75 yards and a touchdown, like, that wouldn't be unreasonable.
6:17But Matthew Golden, what we saw out of him was super encouraging in terms of usage.
6:22The number one wide receiver for the Packers last week.
6:25And I like the matchup they have this week against the Jets.
6:29But it's still just one game coming off of a really disappointing rookie season.
6:33I don't think I would trust Matthew Golden ahead of Jeremiah Love.
6:37Yeah, and Ryan Oswald in the chat saying, even if Love takes over more, are there concerns Algier is a TD poacher like he was in Atlanta?
6:45I mean, I think that's always a big concern.
6:48But I feel like that was softened a bit by seeing Jeremiah Love get a carry inside the five-yard line in his first game.
6:56Like, knowing that it's not exclusively Algier's role. To me, that was encouraging.
7:00Yeah, very encouraging. They did split work inside the five-yard line.
7:03So there is a point to be made that, like, yeah, Algier, unfortunately for the Jeremiah Love investors, Algier is likely to
7:10steal more touchdowns than we would want. But Jeremiah Love, I do expect for the season, is going to end up being,
7:17like, what we wanted him to be when we were drafting him.
7:21I think he's going to be an awesome player.
7:24Let's talk about another unfortunate injury. Chargers wide receiver Lad McConkie.
7:27He's dealing with a rib injury. He's considered day-to-day.
7:30We got this report after the games the other day.
7:33They say that they want to see how McConkie feels this week before determining his availability Sunday.
7:39This is going to be a big domino as far as our lineup decisions because Lad, he left after six drives, but he was dominating targets.
7:47I believe he had over a 40% target share on those six drives.
7:51He leaves. We see Trey Harris have an expanded role.
7:54This entire offense looked dysfunctional, Friedman. What do you think about Lad?
7:58If he is healthy, if he is active, is this just a no-brainer start for you?
8:03Yeah, if he's healthy, for sure. Because he was great in college on a per-snap basis.
8:08He was great as a rookie. Last year, declined a little bit.
8:12But what we saw in week one was really encouraging.
8:15I would expect that to, I mean, not to continue forward on a one-for-one basis because there's no way he's getting 40% of the targets across the season.
8:24But I would expect him still to be someone that you just lock in to your lineups week after week and you
8:30really don't even have to think about it. Yes.
8:33And one thing that makes this a little tricky, this is a late window game this week.
8:39The Chargers are home versus the Raiders, 4.05 p.m.
8:41Eastern. We kind of saw this play out with the Malik Nabors situation this week.
8:46That was a Sunday night football game. You know, I ended up benching Malik Nabors in a few spots because I'm like,
8:53I just can't take the risk of a zero.
8:56I didn't have a backup option I felt good about.
8:59So I will say, make sure you're checking your other options.
9:03Obviously, you have Trey Harris. That's a great plug in there for Lad if he doesn't go.
9:08The Jags, Broncos, Commanders, Cowboys, Dolphins, Niners, Seahawks, Cardinals.
9:11Those are some of the other teams playing in that late window.
9:15So just look at your roster if you are thinking about starting Lad.
9:19But as Greg says in the chat, Friedman, when it comes down to it, we're all just day to day, right?
9:25That's an existential quote you can get behind. Yeah, we're all just getting through it.
9:30And I will say with Lad McConkie, I'm skeptical about this week.
9:34But once he actually returns, like once we see him get full practices within the injury report, that's when it's going to be like, yeah, no brainer.
9:42Just start him for this week. I'm a little bit skeptical that we actually see him play, though.
9:48Yeah. And one other note on this that I happened last night that I want to mention, the Chargers did sign MBS
9:55Marquez Valdez-Scantling to the practice squad, which, again, you're kind of hinting that maybe they are hedging against needing an extra body this week.
10:02So if you had to read the tea leaves there, maybe it seems like he might miss a week.
10:08Maybe. Although, I mean, MBS, I'm just a little bit skeptical given that it's practice squad.
10:13And, you know, they have based on the number of skill position players they have, they use two tight end sets quite a bit.
10:21They have a full back. Trey Harris and Quentin Johnson are totally fine as your top two wide receivers, and they could
10:28rotate in Darius Davis if they want. So even if they sign MBS, I still don't necessarily think that means, like, if
10:35Lab McConkie is out, MBS actually sees significant playing time.
10:38I'm a little bit skeptical of that. But to your point, this is an extra body, a professional wide receiver that they have added to the practice squad.
10:47So it does speak to the enhanced possibility McConkie isn't ready to go.
10:51Yeah, and with all of these things, guys, you know, we're recording this on a Wednesday at noon.
10:56Obviously, we get more important practice reports Thursday, Friday.
10:59That will really give us the picture, the full picture of what we should count on with these guys.
11:05Let's head over to Baltimore, where there were two injuries to their wide receiver room.
11:10Both of these very frustrating because Zay Flowers looked absolutely electric every time he touched the ball against the Colts.
11:16And then Jacoby Lane was getting peppered in the red zone.
11:20It seemed like he was going to be in line for a big year.
11:24Ultimately, Zay Flowers has the hamstring injury. He's considered day-to-day questionable for this week.
11:28And then we have Jacoby Lane, who's going to miss multiple weeks with this wrist injury.
11:34Jeff Zribak, I'm butchering that name for The Athletic, who covers the Ravens.
11:38He said that we are likely to see Elijah Surratt and Devontae Walker getting real opportunity if these two miss in action.
11:45Were you placing bids on either of these guys?
11:47Do you expect anything, you know, for the non-Zay Flowers, Jacoby Lane wide receivers in Baltimore?
11:52I mean, this is disgusting to say. Maybe, but maybe Rashad Bateman.
11:56And I'll say Devontae Walker was also out in week one because of an injury.
12:01And so at some point he's going to return, but maybe not in week two.
12:06So in week two, we can have a situation where no Zay Flowers, no Jacoby Lane, no Devontae Walker.
12:12And that means it's like pretty much Rashad Bateman as the only like professional veteran wide receiver on this team.
12:18That doesn't mean he's going to get a lot of targets, but the dude had like a 90% route rate last week.
12:25I mean, he was like on the field running wind sprints.
12:28At some point you think maybe they throw him the ball, but that would also mean I think it's going to be
12:35a Derek Henry and Mark Andrews kind of week upcoming up.
12:39But I think it's Rashad Bateman at the wide receiver position and maybe Elijah Surratt.
12:43Like, like my heart likes Elijah Surratt. Like the way that he plays football is like the way that like the old
12:50guy at the rec center, like plays basketball to where it's like, man, this guy's actually good.
12:56Like there's nothing physically dominant about him, but he's just like a skilled player.
13:00That's Elijah Surratt. I don't know if that game, which worked in the big 10 actually translates to the NFL, but I would like to see it.
13:09Yes. And I think how I would think about it.
13:12If you need to start someone week one, you just need the plug and play and you're kind of desperate in a deep league.
13:19I think Bateman's probably the guy, although super Roy in the chat says don't call Bateman when you need Batman.
13:25So if you do need Batman, maybe look elsewhere.
13:28But if you have the luxury to stash a wide receiver, I am probably leaning Surratt.
13:33We've talked about him a lot over at Fantasy Life.
13:36You can look at Dwayne McFarlane's supermodel where he graded out incredibly well just because he was a dominant producer in college
13:43relative to, you know, a lot of other players who went higher to him in the draft.
13:49So there is intrigue there, but honestly, I'm probably even stashing other rookies over Surratt.
13:53Like give me a Caleb Douglas. Give me even an Antonio Williams, some guys who might have a clearer path to relevance.
14:00So I do like Surratt. He's an interesting, super deep league stash.
14:04But ultimately, I think we're probably just fading this situation.
14:07I wouldn't want to start any wide receivers for Baltimore in week two, even though they have the decent matchup here versus the Saints.
14:15Yeah, absolutely agree. These guys are like among the least important people, not just on the offense, but also just across the team.
14:22Like it's not going to matter if they get targets or not in terms of the success of this offense.
14:28So why would I want someone like that in my starting fantasy lineup?
14:32When you start a small business, nobody, and I mean nobody, warns you about how much time you're going to spend wrestling
14:39with payroll taxes instead of actually growing your vision, working on the business that you love.
14:44Well, Gusto is online payroll and benefits software built for small businesses.
14:48It's all in one, remote friendly, and incredibly easy to use.
14:52So you can pay, hire, onboard, and support your team from anywhere.
14:55They simplify automatic tax filing, health benefits, workers' comp, and 401ks for nearly any budget.
15:00You know, all the stuff you don't want to deal with?
15:04You get unlimited payroll runs for one monthly price, no hidden fees, plus automated onboarding tools and direct access to certified HR experts.
15:11Switching is fast, and you won't pay a cent until your first run.
15:15It's literally ranked number one on G2's highest satisfaction product list for 2026 and trusted by over 500,000 small businesses.
15:21Try Gusto today at gusto.com slash berry. That's B-E-R-R-Y.
15:24And get three months free when you run your first payroll.
15:28Once again, three months of free payroll at gusto.com slash berry.
15:31One more time, gusto.com slash berry. G'day, I'm Justin Wolfers.
15:34Host of the Platypus Economics podcast. If there's one thing I've learned from a career teaching economics, it's that your life is
15:41shaped by economic currents you'll never see. A single price tag can explain things a thousand experts can't.
15:47People who understand economics, they make better decisions in their careers, their finances, their relationships, and their communities.
15:52And I want that for you. Listen to and follow Platypus Economics.
15:56Available now wherever you get your podcasts. Let's head over to the New York Jets where we had another unfortunate injury to rookie wide receiver Omar Cooper.
16:05He suffered a low ankle sprain. The MRI showed some positive news.
16:08Sources say he is week to week with the hope that he returns within the next four weeks.
16:14So kind of an ambiguous timeline there. He was getting some usage early on in that game, which was encouraging to see.
16:21We also saw them kind of manufacturing touches for their other first round rookie, Kenyon Sadiq.
16:26Are you holding Omar Cooper Jr. In leagues? Because I think that's the tough question that fantasy gamers are probably thinking about relative to this absence.
16:34No, easy. I'm not holding him. He, I thought, had a lot of potential entering the draft and then landed on a
16:41team where I'm just really not that optimistic on what they have going on offensively.
16:46So, uh, given that he's very unlikely to be the number one wide receiver, that would be Wilson.
16:51And then I would say at this point, maybe also unlikely to be the number two wide receiver.
16:57That would be Adonai Mitchell. And then maybe Kenyon Sadiq also plays ahead of him in the past game.
17:03It's like, what am I interested in here? I mean, this is also, it's the jets.
17:08I don't want the number four pass catcher on the jets.
17:12So no, I am not holding Omar Cooper, even though long-term, I think he has potential.
17:17Yeah. To me, he is a classic guy where I could totally see us having him lead waiver wire columns in week
17:24seven or eight, like go get Omar Cooper Jr.
17:26But there's probably just too much opportunity costs right now.
17:30This is where I want to churn. I want to see another week of guys like we just mentioned, Antonio Williams, Caleb Douglas.
17:37Let me take a peek at these guys. Dan in the chat says, do you expect more five tight end sets for the jets now?
17:45I do think they are going to be extremely run heavy.
17:48We saw that. The question is, do the game flows actually allow that against the Titans?
17:53They were able to execute that game plan. I'm not sure that's going to be the case.
17:58Like, Hey, they could go and play the jets here on the road or sorry, the Packers and be forced to throw more.
18:06And then I think we could see 80 Mitchell pop up with a big game.
18:10And a sec man here says no jets hate will stand.
18:14I mean, what is your outlook for the offense?
18:17Is it really kind of like breeze hall and Garrett Wilson and you don't want to touch anything else?
18:23Uh, yes, that's the accurate description. Although I will say Kenyan Sadiq is interesting.
18:27Like, I think it's really encouraging that although he missed some of training camp with injury, his first game, they're scheming touches for him immediately.
18:35They're getting him some action in the red zone as a, as a carrier.
18:39Like that is interesting to me. That's like a very bullish sign.
18:43So although I am relatively down on the jets offense as a whole, I would say this is like a big pro
18:50byproduct of having Frank Reich is your play caller, uh, who hasn't really been able to do much creatively in the NFL for the past few years.
18:59Um, I'm still interested in Sadiq because he has so much potential.
19:02And then of course, breeze hall Garrett Wilson, like we know what we get out of them.
19:08If they were in better offenses, we would absolutely love them as it is.
19:12They're, they're guys that you're starting and you just know that their ceiling is probably capped because of their offense, but they
19:19have relatively high floors because of the usage. Yeah.
19:22And the thing I would say about Sadiq too, and this goes back to what does your team look like?
19:28If you need starting production right now, you're probably going and picking up a Pat Fryer moose off the waiver wire, like get those seven to eight points.
19:37If you have say a Trey McBride or you have a Tucker craft or a guy you feel really good about, then
19:44I want my bench tight end to be a massive swing.
19:47That's Kenyon Sadiq. I think he is, you know, one of the best stashes you can put on the end.
19:54We kind of hoped that like a Terrence Ferguson could potentially be that.
19:58Maybe he pans out, but the path for Sadiq really being a startable player, a guy you feel good about using when
20:05we hit the bi-weeks injuries kick in. That to me looks like an awesome stash to keep there.
20:10So keep the faith on Sadiq. Always awesome to see early usage for those rookie tight ends.
20:16Friedman, I say we start getting into some of these start sets.
20:19We got to decide, are we going to keep it open?
20:23Are we going to close it out? And we do have to start with one Mr.
20:28Bo Nix, really, really rough week one on the road there in Kansas City.
20:32Yeah, Monday Night Football. 17 of 28 passing, only 131 yards and one TD.
20:37Also had the interception there. Two rush yards, which isn't what we're looking for from him.
20:42You're hoping for more there. Matthew Barry has him ranked as QB 14.
20:46And you, of course, are going to be the low man on the totem pole at QB 18.
20:51Can you trust him at home versus the Jags this week?
20:55No, you can't. I mean, Bo Nix is like a sort of like cromulent NFL quarterback.
21:00I would say like, I mean, I don't want to like insult Andy Dalton or something, but like he feels like an Andy Dalton-esque kind of player.
21:08Like when Dalton was like kind of in his prime, right?
21:12To where like with a great defense, a great play caller, Bo Nix could probably reach a Super Bowl and he could
21:19be like fine in that game, but it's a situation now where we didn't get the rushing.
21:24That's like one of the big things that has helped Bo Nix in fantasy for his two seasons.
21:30We didn't get the volume of passing. No quarterback has attempted or no offense has attempted more throws than the Broncos over the past two years.
21:38We didn't get the pass volume this week. We have a new offensive play caller who's never called plays before in the NFL.
21:45And so you put all of this together and it's like, well, that's not really appetizing.
21:50And the thing with Bo Nix is that even though he's been able to keep the offense on schedule in the past,
21:57he's never really been that efficient as a passer.
22:00And so you put all of that stuff together and now he's not getting the volume.
22:05He's not getting the rushing. What am I interested in here?
22:09There's just so much more upside with other quarterbacks.
22:11Yeah, it's I'm definitely in this spot where I drafted Bo Nix in a few leagues and I'm going to have to
22:18decide, like, do you go down to a guy like Daniel Jones or CJ Stroud?
22:23Or do you play him? I do think that there are still paths here for him to rebound.
22:29Like you said, the play calling was poor on the road at Casey is not a great spot.
22:34It's obviously his first game coming off of that ankle injury.
22:38Jalen Waddle didn't really get going. So I think there is some optimism you can have here, but I do firmly agree.
22:45He's not a top 12 star. And this early into the season, you should be able to find a better spot start
22:52for week one or with for week two. With that in mind, Freeman, is there anyone that you can imagine starting over him that might surprise people?
23:00That is kind of a better start in your mind.
23:03I mean, that one's tough. I would say Tyler Shuck, you know, he's on the road playing the Ravens.
23:09That's a tough matchup. But I mean, Shuck aired it out last week.
23:13Shuck was good to close the season last year.
23:16I don't know. Like, I think between Shuck and Nix, that might be close to a coin flip.
23:22And I would also say, like, Malik Willis. I know it's not pretty, but he's at least got the rushing ability there.
23:29So Malik Willis on the road against the 49ers, that looks like a really tough matchup.
23:34But it's like, you know, would I rather have the guy who's at least going to get me like a locked in
23:41floor via the ground game or Bo Nix, who just looked totally lost and might not really be able to run as
23:48much anymore because of the ankle injury? I will say this as I get, you know, Chase Hendricks says, why draft him in the first place?
23:56Go with Bryce Young. I mean, that is some Monday morning quarterbacking after week one.
24:01And Bryce Young having like the game of his career against what looks like one of the worst defenses in football.
24:07I mean, I'll tell you why I drafted Bo Nix.
24:10I mean, Bo Nix averaged a higher points per game last year than Dak Prescott and then got Jalen Waddell added to the arsenal.
24:18I do believe in Sean Payton with this offense.
24:21But yeah, it's it's it's bumpy out of the gate here.
24:24Let's talk about a running back, though. Speaking of bumpy out of the gate, there was a lot of enthusiasm for Marshawn
24:31Lloyd at the end of draft season. Obviously, the ambiguity of the Josh Jacobs situation pushed Lloyd up draft boards.
24:37It was not pretty Friedman 13 rush yards for 37 yards, only 3.7 fantasy points.
24:42He was losing work to Chris Brooks. The offensive line there looks horrendous.
24:46Both you and Matthew Barry have him low in your ranks here just outside of the top 24 running back plays.
24:53If you drafted Marshawn Lloyd, is there is there any way you can start him this week or does he have to head to your bench?
25:01No, I mean, I think you're keeping the tab open on Marshawn Lloyd.
25:05But what I would say is that you're you're doing it with eyes wide open.
25:10You're not really expecting nearly as much as you were last week.
25:13He's hopefully in your flex and not your RB2.
25:16And you just have to look at the utilization report.
25:19We have a fantasy life and the numbers tell a very sad story.
25:2442 utilization score, 37 yards on 13 carries in one target.
25:27Second straight game now that he has on the road.
25:30The Packers don't play on the road as they do it as well on the road as they do at home.
25:37And I mean, again, no Josh Jacobs. It was a golden opportunity in week one to establish himself.
25:42And he didn't. And then also the Packers could be without left guard Aaron Brooks, who exited with a knee injury.
25:49So, you know, an offensive line that already has some issues and now has an injury on it.
25:55It's just a really kind of all around unfortunate situation.
25:58The Packers entering the season, I had them projected as my number four offense kind of as a baseline this week.
26:04Their implied team total in the betting market ranks them at number nine.
26:09And so just kind of diminished expectations overall for the Packers in this game.
26:13And that obviously trickles down to Marshawn Lloyd. Yeah, I think, you know, like you said, they are still implied to score almost 25 points this week.
26:21They're four and a half point home favorites versus the Jets.
26:25Hopefully they can have a more positive game script, which I think would lead to an expanded role for Marshawn Lloyd.
26:31You know, he handled looking at our utilization report half of the short yardage opportunities.
26:36The real question is, do you think he has a lock on the goal line stuff or do you think Chris Brooks could could grab some of those?
26:45Because that's what would really complicate the Marshawn Lloyd even as a flex play.
26:49I don't think anyone on the in this backfield has a lock on anything like the door was left wide open based
26:56on what Marshawn Lloyd did not accomplish last week for someone else to emerge in this backfield.
27:02So I think like all all bets are are live here.
27:05So, I mean, there's still the opportunity for Marshawn Lloyd to establish control in this backfield.
27:10But now there's an enhanced opportunity for other people to steal various roles within the backfield.
27:15Let's head over to another running back. That's kind of tricky to think through here.
27:20It's the Steelers Jalen Warren. He is at New England this week, kind of as expected in a timeshare with Rico Dowdle.
27:27He had 10 rushes for 46 yards, did have the five receptions for 27 yards.
27:32So a decent floor here for him with the 10.3 fantasy points.
27:35But you always kind of wonder, how does that play out, you know, on the road and a not particularly good matchup versus New England?
27:43He is your RB 28 pretty close to the Marshawn Lloyd ranking as well.
27:48He's Matthew Barry's RB 27. What did you see from Jalen Warren and are you going to close it out or keep it open with him?
27:56I think you keep it open with Jalen Warren, but it is discouraging that he played fewer snaps than Rico Dowdle.
28:02And the one thing that Jalen Warren has always had for him is that he is a good pass catcher and he ran fewer routes than Rico Dowdle.
28:11So you put that together and that's that's not great.
28:14But Jalen Warren did get 100% of the short down and distance work, which is almost kind of the opposite.
28:21Like I feel like that would normally be Rico Dowdle.
28:24So it's it seems like there's kind of like a flipping of what I would expect their roles to be within this backfield.
28:31But Jalen Warren is still one of the best players within that offense.
28:35And I would say this week, it's a tough matchup.
28:38You're going on the road to the Patriots who have extra days to rest and prepare for this game.
28:44And so I'm a little bit skeptical on Jalen Warren for this week.
28:48But for the season, I still think that by the end of it, we end up getting kind of like a typical Jalen Warren kind of season.
28:57But the fact that Rico Dowdle is there really hurts Jalen Warren because like Rico Dowdle, I mean, you can say what you want about him.
29:05But like the dude has 1300 scrimmage yards and back to back seasons with two different teams.
29:10And now he's reunited with Mike McCarthy. And given the fact that he had more snaps, I mean, he looks a little
29:17bit more like the lead back within that backfield than Jalen Warren right now.
29:22Yeah. A couple other interesting things. And I would say also format specific, like in our fantasy life guillotine league, I have Jalen Warren.
29:29I'm going to be playing him every week in my flex spot.
29:33One, because it's a really deep league and anyone who has, you know, good playing time is going to be in the conversation.
29:40But because of that floor, right? Like I think you could argue this was not the best game for him.
29:46Usage wise, game script, all of that stuff. And he still clears 10 points here.
29:51So even though Brandon in the chat says that he's a Steelers fan and just stay away from this offense, if at all possible.
29:59Let me try to spin it a little bit for you, Brandon.
30:03They had your beloved Steelers have the highest pass rate over expectation in neutral situations of any team in the league.
30:09This signals a new change in direction for this team that was very run heavy last year.
30:14They're going to play a ton of 11 personnel, having Michael Pittman there, having McCarthy there.
30:20It does seem like the offense is going to be a little different.
30:24And so if I'm forecasting to week two Friedman, I'm like, they're probably going to be in a negative game script at new England.
30:31They're going to be passing a lot. Not to imagine Warren is out there, maybe soaking up more targets than he did in week one.
30:39Look, that is fair. And I would say, you know, weird things can happen in week one, just in general.
30:45And then it was also a weird game against the Falcons.
30:49I would expect that if the Steelers get down in a game, we end up seeing Jalen Warren in that pass catching
30:56role much more than we see Rico Dowdle. The past usage that we've seen out of Warren would suggest it.
31:02And then also to your point, he wasn't out there a ton as a pass catcher, but when he was out there, he was heavily targeted.
31:10And so if we do end up seeing the Steelers as significant dogs in this game trailing game script, yeah, it could
31:17be a situation where Jalen Warren gets five or six targets and that's what he got last week.
31:23So there would be room for even more this upcoming week.
31:26If the Steelers really have to pass the ball.
31:29Let's take a look at an even more bleak situation as far as a running back committee and head to Tennessee here with Tony Pollard.
31:37He is facing Philadelphia this week, which is an extremely tough matchup.
31:41He's coming off of a game where only at seven rush attempts, 35 yards, only one reception that was actually for negative yards, 4.4 fantasy points.
31:49He split the snaps evenly with Tajay Spears. And now, Matthew, they have a 16.25 implied team total.
31:54They are seven point road dogs against a really tough Eagles team.
31:58I mean, I want to throw Tony Pollard on the bench in this spot.
32:03I don't know if you're going to keep it open or close it out, though.
32:07I mean, look, this this tab should have been closed like last year, you know, like it should not be open at this point.
32:15And what I will say is that it's not just that this Titans offense is in disarray, although it is.
32:21And Cam Ward for all of the kind of gun slinging highlights that we saw out of him last year.
32:28Overall, the performance was really negative. And what we saw in week one doesn't give me any any encouragement at all that
32:34there's going to be significant improvement in year two.
32:37And so, as you mentioned, you have a Titans team that is significant underdogs.
32:42And then so they're bad on their own. And then they're playing against the vaunted Eagles defense, which is better against the
32:49pass than against the run, but still against the run.
32:52They're they're fine. And so I would expect that what we saw out of Tony Pollard last week is kind of similar
32:59to what we're going to see out of him this week, which means that like, I mean, at best, he's a flex
33:06in a deep league, but I can't imagine going into a lineup or going into a matchup with Tony Pollard in my
33:12lineup and thinking like, oh, I have a shot at winning this week.
33:17Like it's like he's just kind of like the type of player I absolutely don't want to have on my team.
33:23And like, I'll even push it one step further.
33:26As I look at the utilization here, I think I'd rather start Tajay Spears over Tony Pollard, like if forced to choose
33:33between those two similar amount of snaps. Yes. Tony Pollard had him 70 to 30% in the rush attempts, but Tajay Spears
33:40was the preferred pass down back kind of as we'd expect 36% of the routes, 29% targets per route run, 15% of the targets.
33:47They finished back to back in PPR rank 44 and 45 on the week.
33:52But the utilization score was actually better for Spears.
33:55Isn't he going to be the one that's out on the field for the majority of this negative game script against the Eagles?
34:02You know what? That is, I think a great call and it's probably going to make me reevaluate, reevaluate my rankings and move them a little bit closer.
34:11I mean, the thing is the Titans are kind of so backwards in the way that they do things that I could
34:18see them sticking with the run game far longer than they probably should just in an attempt to like, you know, keep
34:25this, keep the game close, keep the Eagles offense on the sidelines.
34:28So I think Pollard will probably get more work than he should.
34:32But if this were, I think a coaching staff that kind of did things in a more logical way, Tajay Spears probably
34:39would be the back who ends up getting more action in this game.
34:43So it's going to make me rethink it a little bit.
34:47I think Tony Pollard kind of has like the higher projectable floor, but Tajay Spears.
34:51Yeah, absolutely. In a trailing game script, he would have the ceiling of being able to get a ton of check down work.
34:58While we're talking about the Eagles, we have a question from Dan here.
35:03Speaking of Philly, would you start Dontavian Wicks as a flex?
35:06I mean, Dontavian Wicks had awesome usage in that week one game.
35:10It was actually an even split kind of across the board as far as, you know, the target shares there with Dontavian
35:17Wicks, Devontae Smith and the rookie Makai Lemon. Man, talk about guillotine leagues like high floor plays.
35:22I'm in on Wicks as a play this week.
35:25What about you? Yeah. Not that I would ever say anything negative about Mr.
35:29Ryder died, Devontae Smith this year. But given the offense that he's in, it was always kind of a question mark about how high he could ascend.
35:38You know, just given the quarterback, he has an unproven play caller.
35:42Sometimes they kind of distribute the ball evenly around all the wide receivers.
35:46And we saw that in week one with Dontavian Wicks.
35:49I wouldn't say he played ahead of Devontae Smith, right?
35:52But they had similar usage and Dontavian Wicks. I will say I've always been a sucker for the dudes who have like
35:59really high air yard percentage and get like end zone targets down the field.
36:03Dontavian Wicks had 38% of the air yards for the Eagles this past week.
36:08Devontae Smith was right there at 36%, right? They both had a similar route rate, a similar target rate.
36:14Dontavian Wicks had a 50% end zone target share.
36:16Devontae Smith wasn't targeted in the end zone. You look at the utilization score, which kind of encapsulates all of this information and puts it into one number.
36:25Last week, Dontavian Wicks had a 64 utilization score.
36:28Devontae Smith, 56. Like I'm not saying for the rest of the season, Dontavian Wicks is going to be the number one wide receiver for the Eagles.
36:37But what this shows is that Wicks has a role within this offense and whatever it is that we maybe thought of
36:44like Devontae Smith last year as like the number two in this offense.
36:48Maybe we think of Dontavian Wicks a little bit in that role.
36:51Like I think he's the number two and not Makai Lemon.
36:55So yeah, in a game where lots of points could be scored for the Eagles against a defense that just seems like it probably can't stop anyone.
37:03Why not? Why not go with Wicks as a flex, especially if you are looking for upside.
37:09You have to accept that he has a floor.
37:12You have to accept that he could have a game with zero receptions.
37:16But if you're looking for ceiling, yeah, Wicks a totally fine flex play.
37:20Yeah. Yeah. And what you mentioned about the ceiling and the floor, you look at his ADOT week one, 21.8.
37:26He had 38% of the air yards. Devontae Smith had 36%.
37:29That becomes a very fantasy friendly role because when it does hit, it's for big plays down the field.
37:35Dontavian Wicks did have a better utilization score in week one, 64 to 56 for Devontae Smith.
37:41But yes, as I think Vincent in the chat said, he still was behind Devontae Smith in targets 19% to 24%.
37:47So you're not, we're not losing faith on Devontae Smith.
37:51And if anything, one thing that's encouraging is this is a very condensed offense.
37:55It's these three, it's Goddard. Like that's it. We get into trouble in some of these other offenses where they're using guys
38:02fifth, sixth, seventh down the depth chart. I'm looking at you, Ben Johnson, and some of the usage you had there with your wide receivers.
38:10So yeah, no panic whatsoever for me on Devontae Smith right now.
38:13And yeah, it just means Dontavian Wicks is a really strong start going forward.
38:18Let's talk about their week one opponent and a wide receiver who struggled, Terry McLaurin, who now heads to Dallas.
38:24One of the games of the week here, just looking at the total, you know, Terry didn't fare too well there against that tough Eagles secondary.
38:32Only two receptions for 14 yards and 3.4 fantasy points.
38:36Looks like both you and Matthew are still though, keeping a light on here for Terry McLaurin, have him just outside of the top 24 wide receivers.
38:44What are you seeing with scary Terry this week?
38:47Well, I will say, you know, as you mentioned, this is a game with a really high total 50 and a half
38:54points going against a Cowboys defense that last year was number one in fantasy boost allowed to opposing wide receivers and really
39:01did not look significantly better in week one. And then now has a couple of players injured within the back seven to
39:08Marvin on overshone linebacker and also missing one of their safety.
39:11So it's a situation where I think not that we should expect the commanders to replicate what we saw out of the
39:18giants, but the commanders are in a situation where they could end up having a pretty good game.
39:24And so then it's just a question of like, how are you slicing that between the three wide receivers?
39:30Stefan digs. I was impressed by what we saw out of him.
39:33Also impressed by what we saw out of the rookie Antonio Williams, who didn't get a ton of playing time, but was
39:40exceptional with the playing time and the opportunities he did get.
39:44And so I do think that is going to squeeze Terry McLaurin.
39:48And so at least with this one week, this one matchup, I still think you keep the tab open on Terry McLaurin,
39:54but I will say if he doesn't, if he doesn't do anything, if he doesn't get at least some of his against
40:01the Cowboys, then I'm going to be skeptical and I'm going to be much more in on Stefan digs in the rookie Antonio Williams.
40:09Yeah. And I think the bigger concern here, and I know Dwayne flagged this in his utilization report, which I highly recommend
40:16checking out just an awesome, awesome article to catch you up on everything that happened from an underlying usage standpoint, but it really is the offensive line.
40:24That is kind of scary right now for the commanders.
40:27We know we need Jane Daniels to have time to uncork those deep balls to McLaurin.
40:33If not, it's going to be more quick hitter stuff that is going to benefit Stefan digs, but still 92% route share.
40:39It's kind of like the Colston Loveland thing, right?
40:42Ran all the routes, just wasn't getting the targets to me.
40:46What's also a little concerning is I look at their team total this week.
40:50It's 23. That's sandwiched between the Panthers and the Patriots.
40:53You know, we were used to seeing this high flying offense, you know, top seven, top eight implied team totals on the week, even in a good spot.
41:02They're just not expected to score a ton of points, but I still think what gravitated us to McLaurin in the first
41:09place, this deep ball connection with Jane Daniels, it's going to hit, it might be a little more volatile this year than
41:16we would like, but when it does hit, it's going to win you your week single handedly.
41:21Yeah, I do agree with that. I will just say maybe with a new offensive coordinator, they're not relying as much on
41:28the deep ball given, especially that Stefan digs is good in the short and intermediate game.
41:33And then Williams is like a verified, like slot jitterbug who could create lots of easy completions for Jaden Daniels in the short part of the field.
41:42So we'll just kind of see. But because of the guys now around him, Terry McLaurin, even though his role could still
41:49be the same, the way in which they rely on that role could be different within the offense.
41:54All right. We mentioned Colson Loveland. Let's talk about another player in that Bears offense.
41:59That wasn't the recipient of a ton of fantasy points, despite that explosion versus the Panthers.
42:04That is Rome Adunze. He plays Minnesota this week.
42:07He had two receptions for 52 yards, only 7.2 fantasy points.
42:10He was only playing 58% of the routes or running 58% of the routes.
42:15So clearly hampered by that calf injury there. Do you see him bouncing back here?
42:19You have him at wide receiver 29. Matthew has him at wide receiver 31.
42:24Or do you think the Kalief Raymond show continues here?
42:27Man, I'm maybe a little bit too high on Roman Tunze in the ranks.
42:31A tough matchup. But I do think what we saw out of the Bears offense is like they're not going to score 59 points every week, obviously.
42:40But I do think it is representative of the progress that they have made going from year one to year two of
42:47the Ben Johnson regime and Caleb Williams having another year in the system and continuing to develop in his third year in the league.
42:54The problem, as you mentioned, is that they have a lot of options there.
42:59Like Kalief Raymond, he knows the Ben Johnson system from their time together with the Lions.
43:04He is going to be annoying the way that Olamide Zaccheaus was last year.
43:08He's going to be someone who runs enough routes, gets enough targets to where guys within this offense are going to not
43:15have quite the same ceiling that they should have.
43:18Um, so maybe I bumped down in my rankings a little bit Roma Dunze, but like wide receiver 29.
43:24It's like, that's not, that's not wild. Like there, you might have three better options than a Dunze on your team.
43:31Like I, I would kind of hope that you would.
43:34Um, but if you had to start a Dunze, that's fine.
43:37The bears are number five and implied team total this week.
43:41And they just put up 59 points last week.
43:43Like if, if we had entered week one and I said, Hey, the bears are putting up 59 points.
43:49You think that everyone goes off in that offense, a Dunze burden Loveland, you would have started all of them.
43:56I don't think anything has really changed based on what we saw in one week.
44:00No, I'm with you in it. Look, I mean, we know this bears team is going to score a ton of points.
44:07You will be kicking yourself. If Rome and Loveland are the guys this week, even burden and they score a bunch and you leave him on your bench.
44:16Like the pie is big enough that I think Rome is going to be fine.
44:21A spot I'm not so convinced is going to be fine is Marvin Harrison jr.
44:26Another highly drafted player who disappointed us. His draft stock obviously plummeted this year accordingly.
44:30And yet I think the week one was even more concerning than I could have ever imagined.
44:36Only one reception for 33 yards, 4.3 fantasy points.
44:38It's not just Trey McBride, either Friedman Kendrick Bourne had more targets.
44:42Obviously Michael Wilson had more targets. Even Jeremiah Love had a similar target share.
44:479% target share for Marvin Harrison. Are you closing this one out?
44:50I should. I mean, I have him as like my wide receiver 33, 34.
44:55I will say like that feels too optimistic. Yeah.
44:58You know, especially for me, the wet blanket. I think part of it in this matchup is that Marvin Harrison is now.
45:05This might sound backwards. He's so relatively unimportant to that Cardinals offense that he is not at all going to be the focal point of the Seattle defense.
45:13Like they're going to be on Trey McBride. They are going to be on Michael Wilson, but they are missing two of
45:20their starting safeties or rather they were missing two of their starting safeties last week.
45:25I'm still kind of pessimistic on those guys being able to play.
45:29So if Michael Wilson is going up against a good defense, but one that is injured and is not focused on him.
45:36Sorry. I said Michael Wilson. I meant Marvin Harrison.
45:39If Harrison is going up against a good defense that's injured and not focused on him, maybe he ends up having a
45:45better performance than what we saw last week. But I will just say like for the season, I'm closing it out.
45:52I'm not really interested in Harrison at this point.
45:55Yeah. And this is one where it's tough, right?
45:58Because he falls into roster clogger territory where the name and just who we thought he was going to be.
46:04You're like, can I really drop this guy? And yet if that is preventing you from churning, from hitting on potentially one
46:11of these rookies who I do think could break out and become a significant contributor, that puts you in a, very tough spot.
46:18So I guess I'll, I'll give it like one or two more weeks before being like, all right, let's, let's outright cut this guy.
46:26But man, I just don't know how to spin.
46:29This is him being a guy you ever feel comfortable starting right now.
46:33Matthew has him as his wide receiver 40. That's, you know, like desperation flex territory.
46:37We're weak too. Like your teams are relatively healthy.
46:40The buys haven't hit yet. You shouldn't be needing to use these guys.
46:44Yes. Yeah, I agree. And one thing I'll say, if I'm in a matchup and I see that the other person has
46:51Marvin Harrison and their starting lineup, I'm feeling great.
46:54Like I'm feeling great about my odds of winning this week, you know, which is the sign you don't want him on your team.
47:02No, you do not. And, uh, oh, how the mighty have fallen.
47:05Someone in the chat said Rome wasn't built in a day.
47:09Uh, I don't think Marv is ever getting built.
47:12Uh, I don't know if I can mash up those analogies, but it doesn't seem like it's happening.
47:17Folks, uh, one guy that we thought it was going to be happening for this year with pretty concerning usage in week one was Harold Fannin Jr.
47:26One of the great stories of last year as a rookie tight end, you know, breaking out, uh, after attending Bowling Green University.
47:33But then he comes into this game, only two receptions for 21 yards, 4.1 fantasy points.
47:38He was drafted as a top eight, top nine tight end.
47:42You have him as tight end 12 this week.
47:44Matthew has him as tight end 14. How concerned are we about Harold Fannin Jr.
47:49Being the focal point of this offense? Like we kind of anticipated, or at least the market anticipated.
47:55Yeah. I mean, we are concerned. What I would say is that there's at least the optimism of like things probably can't get much worse.
48:03Like for this offense in general, uh, like eventually we probably see Shador Sanders as the quarterback.
48:08Maybe he's better than Deshaun Watson, or at least he maybe has sort of like the upside of the unknown.
48:14Like we know what Deshaun Watson is at this point.
48:17Um, with Fannin, one thing that is encouraging is although he didn't have the targets, he did have a 77% route rate,
48:24which is like very close to like the 80% number that you kind of feel very good about when it comes to,
48:31Oh, this guy is a tight end one. So Fannin, although he didn't have the targets, he was at least out there
48:38on the field for the super majority of the routes.
48:41So that part is encouraging, but yeah, you look at the situation with the Browns, their offense, definitely one of the worst in the leagues.
48:49They're implied for the 30th highest point total this week, or I should just say the third lowest point total this week at 16 and a half.
48:58Uh, you know, tough matchup on the road against the Buccaneers defense at some point.
49:02And I think it's fairly soon. We see Shador Sanders as the quarterback, and at least that might give us some hope for Harold Fannin.
49:10Yeah, I think, yeah, there's the two ways to split it.
49:14I think the macro is just like, yeah, this is going to get better once they ditch Deshaun Watson.
49:20But on the other hand, like you look at the fact that the target shares were very split across Denzel Boston, who
49:27looked really good, 19% of the targets, Casey Concepcion, 19% Jerry Judy, 19%.
49:31So if we don't get the hyper concentration that we got last year, then we do need more offensive efficiency.
49:37We need more scoring. Could that happen with Shador?
49:40I think so. But I think just the absolute target hog that we saw him last year, it's probably in the rear view mirror.
49:47And it makes sense, right? Last year, it was Jerry Judy and Isaiah Bond competing for targets.
49:53And now they have two players, including a first round rookie who's been really good at commanding targets in that offense.
49:59So, you know, you want to keep the faith with Harold Fannin.
50:03But I think the thing that's hard is he was such an awesome floor play last year.
50:08In addition to the ceiling, you could just bank on those eight, nine, 10 targets.
50:13Now we kind of remove the floor. Is the ceiling still there?
50:17I think you could say it is, but he's not as comfy as a week to week start.
50:23And so if you have to benchmark him here and you have him at tight end 14, like if you do put
50:29him alongside maybe some of these other tight ends who had a better role in week one, like even guys like Pat
50:36Friermuth, like who do you start Friermuth or Fannin?
50:39Man, I'm probably still starting Fannin one more week over Friermuth, but like they are they're in the same tier for sure.
50:46Uh, and so wherever you went within that tier, I wouldn't say like you were making a mistake.
50:52Um, but Fannin, he was a 21 year old rookie who led his team in receiving last year, right?
50:58Like that on its own is really impressive. And to your point, the target competition has gotten significantly harder year over year,
51:05but I would say Fannin has probably also gotten better as a player year over year.
51:10So I still want to be invested in Fannin, but you have to do it knowing that this is probably just going
51:17to be one of the bottom five offenses for the rest of the season.
51:21And if you want one nice thing to hang your hat on with Fannin in week two, and again, it's very early
51:28in the season to be looking at DVP defense first position stuff, but this Buccaneers team who he plays this week just got shredded by Mike Gasicki.
51:36You know, they shut down, uh, Jamar Chase Gasicki went five for 78 and had the touchdown.
51:42So if there's something happening here with this defense where they're going to prioritize shutting down these receivers, maybe Fannin can have
51:49a little bit more opening over the middle of the field.
51:52Yeah, that's, that's a very good point to your, to your point, just one week of data, but it's, you know, it's
51:59better than a week of data where the bucks were awesome against tight ends.
52:04One piece of news that hit the timeline as we are recording here is the 49ers have officially put Dejan stripling on
52:10the injured reserve due to his ankle injury. He is going to miss at least four games.
52:16Any interest in Demarcus Robinson with his absence? Yeah, a little bit.
52:20I mean, especially for week two, uh, it's not just dribbling.
52:23It's also your number two tight end Jake, uh, Jake Tonjes, uh, who, uh, exited week one with an injury.
52:29And so that means the 49ers could all the more lean into three wide receiver sets, uh, which would give Demarcus Robinson
52:36significant playing time, uh, if that happens. So yeah, interested in Robinson as sort of like, you know, your, your deeply kind of desperado flyer for week two.
52:45And one thing I'll say, you know, if you're debating, you know, drops and stuff, we talked about, you know, there's a
52:52few guys you got to let go, like Omar Cooper.
52:55You probably have to toss him back. Even a guy like Jacoby lane.
52:59I would say when it comes to John stripling, I've been so encouraged by what we saw in the preseason, his usage,
53:06even in that first game against the Rams before he exited.
53:10I don't know about you Freeman, but I want to continue to hold, uh, Dijon stripling here.
53:15Like the strip club might be closed for at least four games, but I still have my ticket to enter in week five.
53:22Yeah, I, I agree that 49ers offense you want exposure to and think by like week 10, Mike Evans might be dealing with a hamstring injury.
53:30Debo Smith, just Debo Samuel might just look old.
53:33Uh, Demarcus Robinson. We can't really count on George Kittle is old and still dealing with injuries.
53:38Yeah, absolutely. You still want exposure to stripling. All right, guys, we didn't have Matthew Barry for you, but we had Matthew Friedman.
53:46I'm Peter over that appreciate everyone tuning in to the fantasy football happy hour with your two substitutes today.
53:52Make sure you guys are subscribed to the channel.
53:55We got videos every day this week. Good luck in your matchups.
53:58We got the Thursday night till coming up between the bills and the lions.
54:03Once more for Matthew Friedman, I'm Peter over that we'll see you next time on the fantasy football happy hour.