News, Week 5 Sit/Start + Mailbag

Matthew Berry ranks Bo Nix as QB 17 this week against the Chargers and closes it out on starting him. Nix has finished QB 18 or worse in three of four weeks, ranks 27th out of 29 qualified quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt, and is averaging just six rushing yards per game—a significant decline from his pre-season expectation of over 20 per game. The low over-under of 42.5 suggests a low-scoring game where Nix won't need to air it out or run significantly.

Bo Nix hasn't been right this season and the offense hasn't been right. The team isn't pushing the ball downfield consistently to Jalen Waddell, raising questions about the entire passing game's effectiveness and reliability.

Matthew Berry keeps it open on Braylon Allen as RB 19 this week against Cleveland, assuming he gets the start with Breece Hall out. Allen played 94% of snaps last week and received 100% of the team's running back touches. The Browns allow 4.8 yards per carry to running backs, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Berry expects the Jets to move the ball on the ground given Geno Smith's struggles.

Matthew Berry expresses uncertainty about how long Braylon Allen will remain viable, suggesting his long-term value is questionable. He's included as a throw-in in a trade evaluation but not viewed as a core asset.

Matthew Berry notes that Breece Hall is expected to miss Week 5 against Cleveland, which opens the door for Braylon Allen to receive the bulk of the Jets' running back touches and snaps.

Matthew Berry cites Brock Purdy's strong play as a reason to back the 49ers at plus 850 Super Bowl odds, positioning them as his pick to win the Super Bowl. Berry believes the 49ers are the best team in football and that Purdy's performance supports that assessment.

Matthew Berry keeps it open on Bucky Irving as RB 15 this week against Dallas, despite a tough performance last week. Irving commands 75% of the Buccaneers' running back touches, making him a bell cow back. The Cowboys allow running back rushing touchdowns at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL, providing touchdown upside. Berry describes him as a mid-tier RB2.

Matthew Berry is closing out on Sutton as a sit, ranking him wide receiver 39. Sutton has been touchdown dependent with only three or fewer catches in every game this season and just one game with more than 25 yards. His utilization score ranks him wide receiver 60, and he ranks 89th out of 96 qualified wide receivers in yards per route run. After going one for four yards last week, Berry states he doesn't know how to feel good about starting him despite the Chargers matchup.

Matthew Berry views DeAndre Swift as a buy-low opportunity after his benching for a second fumble, maintaining he's a low-end RB2 because the Bears want to run heavy and lack depth at the position. Berry notes Swift is very talented and explosive compared to Monungay, and he picked him up in multiple guillotine leagues where floor matters over upside. The fumble issue is the main concern, but Berry expects the Bears to return to Swift despite the benching.

Matthew Berry keeps it open reluctantly on David Montgomery as RB 22 this week against Tennessee, describing him as a low-end RB2 or high-end flex. The Texans are more than a touchdown favorite and will likely play from ahead, leading to increased rushing attempts. Teams playing the Titans average almost 28 rush attempts per game. Montgomery has twice as many red zone and goal-line rush attempts as Woody Marks this season, and his anytime touchdown is priced at minus 110 in Vegas, suggesting strong touchdown probability.

Matthew Berry prefers Debo Samuel in a trade, noting his role seems to be increasing with the 49ers. Berry acknowledges injury concerns with Mike Evans and Kittle but still favors the Judkins and Debo side of the trade.

With Devontae Smith out, Jalen Hurts looks to him first in the progression, indicating Smith is the clear WR1 when healthy. Smith has 97% route participation and back-to-back games with at least 20% target share. Jacksonville has allowed more receiving yards to opposing wide receivers than any other NFL team, creating a favorable matchup for Smith's return.

If Rhamondre Stevenson misses Sunday's game, the Patriots would be forced to throw more and likely deploy more designed runs for Drake Maye, creating additional offensive opportunity for the rookie quarterback.

Evan Ingram shows up sporadically in the Broncos' passing game, indicating inconsistent usage and limited fantasy reliability.

Matthew Berry ranks Jalen Hurts as QB 14 this week against Jacksonville in the London game. The Eagles' offensive line situation has deteriorated significantly with Lane Johnson's retirement and Cam Juergens' trade to Baltimore, leaving the unit with the fourth-highest pressure rate allowed and tied for fourth-most sacks allowed. Berry expresses nervousness about the Eagles offense and expects them to be without DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.

Veteran running back brought in for Patriots tryout; larger frame may be trusted inside the 10-yard line, but usage pattern remains unclear. Berry notes the tryout itself is noteworthy because the Patriots don't typically bring in veteran RBs for evaluation every week.

Matthew Berry would not sell James Cook, maintaining he's still an RB1 if the draft were held today. Berry acknowledges concerns about Josh Allen stealing goal-line carries but believes Cook is still awesome and worth holding.

Matthew Berry ranks Jaden Daniels as QB 5 this week against the Giants in a must-win game for Washington. Daniels is 3-0 against New York in his career and has never thrown an interception against them; he ranks eighth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback this season when active. The Giants allow passing touchdowns at the sixth-highest rate and rank 32nd in pressure, giving Daniels a clean pocket to operate.

Matthew Berry expects Jeremiah Love to get back off this week after controversy around his playing time last week, projecting the Cardinals will go heavy with Love in the backfield against the Lions.

Matthew Berry notes that Josh Allen keeps stealing goal-line carries from James Cook, which is a concern for Cook's touchdown upside, though Cook remains an RB1 overall.

Matthew Berry expresses disappointment in Downs' Week 4 performance despite having significant exposure to him; notes the Commanders were getting 'pasted' and Downs failed to generate meaningful fantasy production, calling it 'very disappointing' and 'brutal.'

In two of the past three games, Downs has posted at least 30% target share with 90% route participation; he leads the Colts in red zone targets despite Tyler Warren's presence on the roster. Matthew Berry ranks him as wide receiver 25 heading into a matchup against Pittsburgh, which has allowed at least 89 yards to a wide receiver in three of four games this season.

Downs and Romeo Dunze are both consistently winning one-on-one matchups and generating separation against man coverage and zone opportunities, yet remain under-targeted relative to their matchup success; the production lag suggests breakout potential is imminent, with the Commanders matchup viewed as a likely catalyst for increased volume.

Matthew Berry expresses confidence in Josh Downs as a young talent, saying "he's doing his job and so it's just a matter of time I think," suggesting an imminent breakout despite recent lack of production. Berry frames Downs as a player worth believing in despite current underperformance.

Matthew Berry prefers Debo Samuel over Josh Downs in a trade evaluation, valuing the established receiver with increasing role over the younger option.

Matthew Berry estimates only a 10% or higher chance that Josh Jacobs becomes a top 20-22 running back if and when he returns (projected around week 8), citing uncertainty about his practice status, potential rust upon return, and the Packers' struggling offensive line that hasn't run the ball effectively. Berry suggests dropping him if you need the roster spot, as he thinks it will be a while before Jacobs is productive in the NFL.

Matthew Berry ranks Justin Herbert outside his top 20 quarterbacks this week against Denver. The Chargers' offensive line has been even worse than Philadelphia's, allowing the second-highest pressure rate and third-most quarterback pressures in the NFL. Herbert has been under constant pressure and the team has struggled to run the ball effectively.

Matthew Berry ranks Keaton Mitchell as RB 33 this week, describing him as a viable flex option in 12-team or deeper leagues. Mitchell represents a secondary option in the Chargers' backfield amid the team's offensive line struggles.

Matthew Berry notes that Keaton Mitchell's usage is going up significantly in the Ravens backfield, contributing to Omari Hampton's declining value. Mitchell is emerging as a factor in the Ravens' running game.

Matthew Berry notes that Kenneth Gainwell has been taking on more of the role expected in the preseason over the past two weeks, specifically handling long down-to-distance and third-down situations. This increased usage cuts into Bucky Irving's opportunities in the Buccaneers' backfield.

Mo Egger highlights Kenneth Walker as a key addition to the Seahawks offense that makes it way more dynamic, suggesting Walker might win MVP or Offensive Player of the Year. The addition is cited as a reason to back the Seahawks at plus 900 Super Bowl odds.

In his 11th NFL season, Treadwell remains active in the Colts offense; Matthew Berry notes his longevity in the league with a light-hearted reference to his college performance at Ole Miss.

Matthew Berry ranks Marvin Harrison as WR48 for the week and does not recommend starting him against the Lions despite the matchup being unbelievable, citing his below 12% target share in every game this season. Berry expects bigger days from Michael Wilson and Trey McBride, and notes Harrison bailed out owners last week only because of a touchdown. Unless desperate, Berry advises against starting him.

Marvin Mims remains in the Broncos' receiving rotation alongside Evan Ingram and running back pass-catching options, but the overall offense's struggles limit his fantasy appeal.

Matthew Berry holds Mecole Hardman despite his lack of production this season, reasoning that his upside as a talented wide receiver is larger than whatever trade value he could currently get. Berry notes Hardman has a backup quarterback, no targets, and plays in a bad offense, but advises holding tight until he has a good game to potentially sell high. Baker Mayfield's return is expected to improve the situation.

Matthew Berry ranks Omarian Hampton as RB 23 this week, outside his top 20 running backs. He describes Hampton as a low-end RB2 or high-end flex, noting the Chargers' offensive struggles and hoping he falls into the end zone for fantasy value.

Pat Bryan is out, and he is one of Bo Nix's favorite targets. His absence creates uncertainty about how the Broncos' passing game pecking order will reshuffle.

Matthew Berry ranks Quentin Johnston as a wide receiver 4 this week, assuming Vlad McConkie is out. With the Chargers' offensive line in disarray and Justin Herbert under constant pressure, Johnston has limited upside in the passing game.

Matthew Berry prefers the Quinshon Judkins and Debo Samuel side of a proposed trade over Braylon Allen, Tony Pollard, and Josh Downs, valuing Judkins as a bell-cow running back. Berry notes it's hard to find good running backs and values them more than wide receivers this year because there are more receivers than bell-cow backs.

Carries nearly 75% snap rate; Patriots trust him significantly more than Trayvon Henderson in close-game situations. Has the ability to break a big play but needs one to reach the end zone given limited red-zone volume.

Left the game late with an ankle injury that looked concerning; Patriots brought in veteran Jamal Williams for a tryout, signaling potential nervousness about Stevenson's availability for Sunday. Matthew Berry notes the tryout is unusual and suggests the team may be cautious about his status, though as of taping Stevenson was still on track to play.

Matthew Berry notes uncertainty around Saquon Barkley's availability for Week 5 against Jacksonville, describing it as a 'big if' whether he will play. His status directly impacts the fantasy value of Will Shipley and the Eagles' offensive approach.

Saquon Barkley's status for the Eagles-Jaguars game is uncertain (may or may not play). His potential absence, combined with offensive line injuries, would force Philadelphia to rely more heavily on the passing game against Jacksonville's elite run defense.

Mo Hassan notes that Sean Tucker has been stealing red zone runs from Bucky Irving, including a two-yard touchdown run, which further limits Irving's fantasy upside in goal-line situations.

Matthew Berry mentions the possibility of Terry McLaurin returning for Washington's Week 5 matchup against the Giants, noting his potential availability as part of the broader positive outlook for Jaden Daniels' fantasy prospects this week.

Matthew Berry prefers Quinshon Judkins over Tony Pollard in a trade evaluation, valuing the bell-cow running back more highly in the current market.

Hunter may see action as a wide receiver against Philadelphia's offense, but is ranked as wide receiver 32, indicating limited fantasy relevance despite the opportunity.

Mo Hassan highlights Trey Harris as having increased usage with Vlad McConkie out. Harris ranks first in target share and first in receiving yards among Chargers receivers, positioning him as the de facto number one receiver in the offense with opportunities to produce.

Matthew Berry expects a huge day from Trey McBride this week against the Lions, positioning him as a preferred start in the Cardinals offense over Marvin Harrison.

Mo Egger mentions that the Seahawks' two best receivers are out and questions whether they will add Tyreek Hill, leaving the receiver situation as a concern for the team's Super Bowl chances.

Matthew Berry identifies Will Shipley as becoming interesting in PPR formats as a flex option this week against Jacksonville, assuming Saquon Barkley does not play. With the Eagles' offensive line decimated and pressure expected to increase, Hurts may rely more on dump-off passes, creating opportunity for Shipley in the passing game.

Matthew Berry notes that David Montgomery has twice as many red zone and goal-line rush attempts as Woody Marks this season, indicating the Texans' preference for Montgomery in scoring situations.