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Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry fantasy football takes on Josh Downs
Every source-backed podcast insight STACKED has extracted from Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry about Josh Downs.
30
Insights
22
Positive
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Insight ledger
All Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry insights about Josh Downs
NegativeMatchupOct 22, 2026
Matthew Berry ranks Josh Downs outside his top 40 wide receivers this week facing the Vikings, citing a confluence of issues: Minnesota's second-toughest matchup for slot receivers, the Colts' third-lowest implied team total in week seven, Daniel Jones' poor play forcing underneath passes to Keenan Allen instead, and Downs' career-low 20.6% route share. Downs' strength against man coverage is negated by the offensive line struggles that force longer-developing routes, and he failed to produce against the Titans last week, so Berry doubts he'll perform on the road against Brian Flores' defense.NegativeRoleOct 22, 2026
Mo Hassan expresses concern about Josh Downs' role in Chicago's stacked pass-catching room alongside Devontae Smith, Colston Loveland, and others; Hassan notes that Caleb loves Luther Burden and calls him a problem child, iterating they want to get him the ball; with so many elite options, Hassan suggests Downs cannot be trusted as any one of them can explode at any moment.PositiveRoleOct 21, 2026
Matthew Berry is closing out on Josh Downs, ranking him WR41 this week. Over the last three weeks, Downs is averaging 7 fantasy points per game with just 16% target share; Keenan Allen has gotten more targets than Downs in each of the past two weeks. Matchup against Minnesota Vikings (fifth-fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs) is unfavorable. Berry notes the offense is not scheming Downs open despite preseason optimism.NegativeBustOct 20, 2026
Matthew Berry was excited about Josh Downs but notes that Keenan Allen has again outproduced him, continuing Allen's pattern of surpassing younger receivers on his team.NegativeProjectionOct 15, 2026
Matthew Berry notes that Josh Downs' fantasy production hasn't been strong lately, but his usage remains very strong at over 90% of routes. Downs faces the Titans, who have been the sixth-best matchup for wide receivers. Berry expects Downs to get back on track this week.NegativeValueOct 7, 2026
Matthew Berry prefers Debo Samuel over Josh Downs in a trade evaluation, valuing the established receiver with increasing role over the younger option.PositiveBreakoutOct 7, 2026
Matthew Berry expresses confidence in Josh Downs as a young talent, saying "he's doing his job and so it's just a matter of time I think," suggesting an imminent breakout despite recent lack of production. Berry frames Downs as a player worth believing in despite current underperformance.PositiveBreakoutOct 7, 2026
Downs and Romeo Dunze are both consistently winning one-on-one matchups and generating separation against man coverage and zone opportunities, yet remain under-targeted relative to their matchup success; the production lag suggests breakout potential is imminent, with the Commanders matchup viewed as a likely catalyst for increased volume.PositiveUsageOct 7, 2026
In two of the past three games, Downs has posted at least 30% target share with 90% route participation; he leads the Colts in red zone targets despite Tyler Warren's presence on the roster. Matthew Berry ranks him as wide receiver 25 heading into a matchup against Pittsburgh, which has allowed at least 89 yards to a wide receiver in three of four games this season.NegativeProjectionOct 7, 2026
Matthew Berry expresses disappointment in Downs' Week 4 performance despite having significant exposure to him; notes the Commanders were getting 'pasted' and Downs failed to generate meaningful fantasy production, calling it 'very disappointing' and 'brutal.'NegativeMatchupOct 5, 2026
Josh Downs had 16 yards against the Commanders despite a great matchup and great air rating; he got so much separation and had a 95% route participation rate. Matthew Berry notes the Commanders defense actually played well and it all fell apart, and Daniel Jones did not play well. Ashton Doolin and Laquan Treadwell both got more targets. Berry still trusts Downs and expects better days, noting this was just a bad day at the office.PositiveRoleOct 2, 2026
With Alec Pierce now on injured reserve, Josh Downs should see an extended role in the Colts offense for the foreseeable future. Matthew Berry recommends to 'buy low on Josh Downs because the role should be there for quite some time.'PositiveMatchupOct 2, 2026
Josh Downs faces the Commanders, who allow 6.7 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receiver rooms—the worst secondary in the league per adjusted DVP analysis; this is a fantastic matchup for Downs, especially with Alec Pierce out of the lineup.PositiveRoleOct 2, 2026
Josh Downs has an 88% route participation rate this season, which is in wide receiver one territory; he's earning all his targets and is a buy candidate despite previous concerns about playing time. His utilization score is 81 over the last two games, and historical comparisons show players with similar scores average 16.4 fantasy points per game versus his current 10.9, suggesting significant upside.PositiveRoleOct 1, 2026
Josh Downs ranks number one in average separation score (ASS rankings), meaning no receiver in the NFL gets more separation than Downs. He is the clear-cut number one wide receiver option on the Colts offense and plays against a Commanders defense that has given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers.PositiveProjectionOct 1, 2026
Matthew Berry ranks Josh Downs as a top 20 wide receiver play for Week 4 against the Commanders. The Commanders have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and the most touchdowns to slot receivers this season. Over the past two games with Alec Pierce out, Downs has posted a 31% target share and 43% of the Colts' red zone targets.PositiveProjectionSep 30, 2026
Matthew Berry ranks Downs as a better short-term play than A.J. Odunze, citing much better floor and fantasy production outlook; Berry emphasizes Downs' target share, separation ability, and role as the primary weapon in the Colts offense, noting he's one of the most rising stars in the slot with high win percentage on routes.PositiveUsageSep 25, 2026
After Alec Pierce left the game with injury, Josh Downs had a 36% target share and ran over 40% of his routes from the perimeter. Dan Graziano expects Downs to be targeted heavily in the passing game with Pierce out, as he's a do-everything guy the team is extremely high on. Matthew Berry ranks him as wide receiver 27 this week with wide receiver two upside, calling him a rock-solid wide receiver three.PositiveProjectionSep 24, 2026
36% target share after Alec Pierce injury last week; running 40%+ of routes from perimeter (no longer just slot); Texans have strong corners but slot is the place to attack Houston; versatile usage expanding beyond slot role.PositiveRoleSep 23, 2026
High-end WR3 while Pierce is out; benefits from increased target share and role concentration in Colts offense alongside Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren.PositiveUsageSep 10, 2026
Matthew Berry expects Josh Downs to see a high volume of targets against the Ravens, noting the Ravens' struggles against slot receivers and potential health issues for Keenan Allen and Alec Pierce.PositiveRoleSep 8, 2026
Matthew Berry advocates for Josh Downs in round nine, dismissing concerns about Keenan Allen's age and injury history. Berry notes that Downs will play in two-wide receiver sets and was targeted on over 25% of his routes when Michael Pittman was off the field last year, giving him a clear path to being the leading wide receiver on a high-powered Colts offense.PositiveSleeperSep 1, 2026
Harmon is a long-time fan of Josh Downs, comparing his archetype to Tyler Lockett. Despite the Keenan Allen signing and Alec Pierce's presence, Harmon likes him as a late-round target who can win downfield and play in two-receiver sets.PositiveRoleAug 28, 2026
Matthew Berry expects an expanded role for Josh Downs, who will play in two-wide receiver sets and move outside. With Michael Pittman gone and Keenan Allen aging, Berry anticipates a high volume of targets for Downs in the current offensive scheme.PositiveUsageAug 26, 2026
Matthew Berry highlights Josh Downs as a player in the WR 40-50 range who possesses strong peripherals and potential for an increased role.PositiveValueAug 21, 2026
With Michael Pittman traded, Josh Downs is positioned for a larger role; he has been targeted on over 25% of his routes when Pittman is off the field and averages 13.7 fantasy points per game in contests with a 20%+ target share. He is currently going outside the top 100 picks.PositiveUsageAug 18, 2026
Matthew Berry and Jay Croucher view Josh Downs as an underrated wide receiver who could see increased usage in the Colts' offense. Berry ranks him WR35, noting that even with Keenan Allen's arrival, Downs remains a key part of the two-wide receiver sets and will likely operate in the slot when Allen plays outside.NegativeValueAug 14, 2026
Peter Overzet notes that while he is excited about Josh Downs, the potential addition of Keenan Allen to the Colts would likely hurt Downs' fantasy value more than it would impact Alec Pierce.PositiveValueAug 12, 2026
Matthew Berry and Adam Levitan agree that Josh Downs is a steal at pick 100, noting he is a very good player in a strong role; Berry notes that while Downs might go earlier in sharper industry leagues, he is often available later in standard home leagues.PositiveValueAug 12, 2026
Matthew Berry and Adam Levitan identify Josh Downs as a major value at his 104 ADP. With Michael Pittman absent and Alec Pierce dealing with an injury, Downs has historically earned targets at a 25% rate when Pittman is off the field. Levitan ranks him in the 80s, calling him a total steal.