Injury News + Best NFL Futures Bets with Jay Croucher
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
52 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 18, 2026
Published
Tue, August 18, 2026
31
Player insights
29
Players mentioned
Topics
Keenan AllenTyrone TracyAlec PierceBraelon AllenBreece HallCarnell TateCeeDee LambChris GodwinChris OlaveChristian McCaffreyD'Andre SwiftDaniel JonesDeVonta SmithGeno Smith
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
NegativeInjury7:07
Alec Pierce is dealing with an ankle injury that makes his availability and condition a question mark. Matthew Berry ranks him WR45, noting that the signing of Keenan Allen could impact his potential to expand his role in the short-to-intermediate passing game.
Insight pageBraelon Allen
PositiveSleeper22:01
Braylon Allen is highlighted as a high-upside handcuff and insurance running back for the Jets, especially given Breece Hall's injury history and the potential for a reduced workload share for the starter.
Insight pageBreece Hall
NegativeInjury21:13
Breece Hall is dealing with a groin injury and is expected to miss two to three weeks, though he is projected to be ready for the regular season opener. While he remains the clear RB1 for the Jets, the injury and the presence of Braylon Allen could lead to a workload share closer to 55-60% rather than the expected 70-75%.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
NegativeDepth Chart25:45
Matthew Berry moved Carnell Tate ahead of Jordan Tyson in his dynasty and rookie rankings due to Tyson's hamstring injury and the associated risk of missing time.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
NegativeInjury30:35
CeeDee Lamb's previous experience with a high ankle sprain serves as a cautionary tale for Jeremiah Love, as Lamb noted a loss of explosiveness upon his return last season.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue20:50
Following the news of Emeka Abuka's toe injury, Matthew Berry moved Chris Godwin up in his rankings to WR33 (69 overall).
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveUsage21:59
Matthew Berry and Jay Croucher agree that Chris Olave's fantasy outlook improves following Jordan Tyson's hamstring injury. Olave is expected to command a higher target share, with Berry noting that Olave averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game and a 29% target share when playing without Tyson last season.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveValue50:56
Jay Croucher is drafting Christian McCaffrey in his guillotine league, prioritizing his high-upside profile despite potential early-season availability risks.
Insight pageD'Andre Swift
PositiveValue26:56
DeAndre Swift is considered a strong value pick, as he is being drafted as a mid-to-low-end flex despite having a high floor and a role in a high-performing Bears offense. The injury to Kyle Manungai further solidifies his usage.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
PositiveProjection12:08
Jay Croucher and Matthew Berry discuss Daniel Jones's outlook, noting that the addition of Keenan Allen provides a reliable safety blanket over the middle. Despite concerns about his post-Achilles athleticism, Croucher highlights that Jones is a compelling character with a wide range of outcomes, and Berry classifies him as a QB2 with upside.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
NegativeBreakout44:48
Jay Croucher lists DeVonta Smith alongside Ladd McConkey as a player capable of a significant breakout leap.
Insight pageGeno Smith
PositiveProjection24:31
Geno Smith is viewed as a competent, league-average quarterback who could surprise with a better offensive line and improved weapons, potentially helping the Jets exceed low expectations.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
NegativeDepth Chart49:27
Some training camp reports suggest Isaiah Likely could be a factor in the passing game hierarchy.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveUsage45:20
Jay Croucher and Matthew Berry are betting the over on Jalen Hurts' 424.5 rushing yards. The Eagles are expected to increase his designed runs after a low usage rate last year, and he is reportedly looking leaner and faster in camp.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
NegativeBreakout44:38
Jay Croucher identifies Ladd McConkey as a prime candidate to make a 'JSN-type leap' in his second season.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
NegativeInjury29:19
Jeremiah Love is dealing with a high ankle sprain, which carries a risk of sapping his explosiveness upon return. However, he is expected to be ready for the opener and remains a key part of the Cardinals' offense.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
NegativeInjury22:03
Jordan Tyson suffered a significant hamstring injury that could keep him out for two weeks or lead to a PUP start. Matthew Berry moved him down to WR50 (113 overall), noting that his history of soft-tissue issues makes him a risky draft pick even if he returns, as he will likely face a slow ramp-up period.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveUsage7:17
Matthew Berry and Jay Croucher view Josh Downs as an underrated wide receiver who could see increased usage in the Colts' offense. Berry ranks him WR35, noting that even with Keenan Allen's arrival, Downs remains a key part of the two-wide receiver sets and will likely operate in the slot when Allen plays outside.
Insight pageJuwan Johnson
PositiveRole27:03
Matthew Berry moved Juwan Johnson up in his rankings, noting that he becomes the clear number two pass catcher for the Saints following Jordan Tyson's injury.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
PositiveRole6:52
Matthew Berry and Jay Croucher discuss the Colts signing Keenan Allen to a one-year deal. While Allen may not be the team's overall WR1, he is expected to fill the role vacated by Michael Pittman, operating in short-to-intermediate areas over the middle. Berry notes Allen has 122 targets last season and has recorded 70+ receptions in every season he has played at least 10 games. Berry ranks him WR60, viewing him as a flyer for deeper or best ball leagues with potential for occasional high-scoring games.
Insight pageNegativeDepth Chart43:17
Keenan Allen has left the Chargers, vacating 122 targets that are expected to be redistributed within the offense.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveProjection40:36
Matthew Berry and Jay Croucher view Kyler Murray as a league-average quarterback who is now in the best context of his career under Kevin O'Connell; while he may lack MVP-level upside, he is positioned to lead a 10-11 win team.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveUsage43:10
Jay Croucher projects Ladd McConkey to absorb a significant portion of the 122 targets vacated by Keenan Allen, particularly in the slot. McConkey is viewed as the clear WR1 for the Chargers, with an over/under of 899.5 receiving yards.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveBreakout47:45
Jay Croucher views Malik Nabers as a high-upside player with the potential to be a top-three wide receiver. Despite knee concerns, camp reports are positive, and he is expected to lead his team in target percentage.
Insight pageNajee Harris
NegativeDepth Chart30:11
The Giants signed Najee Harris to a one-year deal. Jay Croucher and Matthew Berry view this as a depth signing, noting that Harris is coming off an Achilles injury and will join a crowded running back room. Berry suggests it might signal concern regarding Cam Scadaboo's workload or health.
Insight pageOdell Beckham
NegativeDepth Chart49:19
Matthew Berry notes that Odell Beckham Jr. is in the mix for the number two wide receiver role behind Malik Nabers.
Insight pageT.J. Hockenson
PositiveInjury41:13
TJ Hockenson is another year removed from his injury, which is a positive factor for the Vikings' offensive outlook.
Insight pageTyler Allgeier
PositiveDepth Chart30:44
Tyler Allgeier is moving up slightly in rankings as an insurance option behind Jeremiah Love, following Love's high ankle sprain.
Insight pageTyler Warren
NegativeDepth Chart8:40
Matthew Berry notes that while Tyler Warren remains a valuable tight end, the signing of Keenan Allen slightly separates him from the elite tier of tight ends (Bowers, McBride, Loveland). Berry now places Warren at the top of the tight end two tier.
Insight pageTyrone Tracy
NegativeUsage20:22
Tyrone Tracy had a bad moment with a blown block in the preseason, which has been widely circulated on social media; while it is unclear if the error was due to an audible or a missed read, it serves as an annoyance for fantasy managers invested in him in deeper leagues.
Insight pageNegativeUsage32:15
Matthew Berry and Jay Croucher discuss a blown block by Tyrone Tracy that was widely circulated on social media. Berry notes that this incident may have prompted the Giants to sign Najee Harris for depth, casting doubt on Tracy's immediate role.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is the happy hour show. It is noon on YouTube, but five o'clock somewhere, for love of God.
0:06Texting with my producers right there. Guess what, guys?
0:08Today is an exciting day. The regulars are all excited because my old friend Jay Croucher is in the house.
0:14Jay, the pino is flowing. I'm ready for you.
0:17I'm very excited. I'm thrilled to have you here.
0:20How are you, mate? I'm good, mate. Yes, ominous that you're ready for me.
0:24Just kind of the way that you said that is frightening, but very happy to be here, Matthew.
0:29Good to see you again. Looking forward to chatting some ball, chatting some life.
0:33We'll chat about some bad movies as well. So yeah, looking forward to it.
0:37Yeah, Medici saying this guy is a genius, but don't tell him that.
0:41I don't know why we wouldn't tell you that because I think you already think that.
0:46I don't know that it would reinforce something that isn't already there.
0:50You know, the good thing about betting as frequently as I do, Matthew, is that it knocks you down to size and
0:56really sorts your ego out pretty regularly. So you might think that you're onto something and then you're very much not and
1:03you lose emphatically and then your geniusness gets kind of beaten out of you.
1:07So I think my kind of calibration of where my intelligence stands is pretty solid.
1:11But you, um, the last time I think, you know, we were basically on air together, you had won or you were
1:18about to win a significant, I mean, seriously, like buy a house kind of money on Arsenal.
1:23So have you since suffered a bad loss since the big Arsenal win?
1:27Uh, I was on the Spurs to win the finals, um, which went about as bad as could possibly be imagined.
1:33Yeah. Um, not just that, but, uh, the really the coup de grace or whatever that term is was, so I had the Spurs to win the title.
1:41And then I also had the Knicks minus one and a half in game four, the OG Ananobi buzzer beta game.
1:48Um, so if anyone recalls, uh, not only did the Knicks win that game and effectively clinch the finals, but they won
1:54by one, uh, and they didn't cover, uh, in game four.
1:58And so that was, uh, yeah, that was the epitome of it.
2:01It knocks you down to size. So thank you very much.
2:04Um, Darren Fox for not boxing out. Thank you very much, Victor Wembe Nyama for not doing anything in the last five
2:11minutes of any of the finals games. Um, so yeah, that didn't eat away all the Arsenal profits, but it took a decent bite into it.
2:19Yeah. Wembe had a very bad, uh, series there in the finals.
2:22Um, uh, you know, and I was, you and I were texting privately, uh, not only did it, but it was a good one.
2:29It was a lot of chain that Connor was on.
2:32I, we had a separate thread. Um, and I still made my way onto the thread with Connor and Jay, but, uh,
2:39yeah, I mean, like I was telling you quite a bit and I overall, we were profitable for the NBA playoffs, but
2:45the finals, the Spurs definitely let us down a few times.
2:49There's no question about it. Um, and, uh, yeah.
2:51And Wembe just never came to play, which was very frustrating.
2:55Very, very frustrating. Yeah. I will say, um, as being on a separate text thread with Connor, you're not on Matthew naturally.
3:01Uh, Connor Rogers is a pretty kind of level headed, very intelligent person.
3:05Yep. Uh, the fandom really comes out when the Knicks are in the playoffs and making a deep run, uh, and the bias really comes out.
3:13I don't think the Knicks, uh, I don't think the refs made one positive call, uh, for the Knicks.
3:18He's, uh, Connor Rogers is very furious. There was some strange things said about, uh, the, the fine nation of France, um,
3:25which can never see the light of day. Uh, Connor Rogers really on one, but, uh, ended up, uh, he ended up
3:32taking home the chocolates in the end. Well, yeah.
3:34Um, thank God for, uh, it's been a good year.
3:37Everything's coming up, Connor. Um, uh, except that Brie Saul's hurt, which we'll get to here in a second.
3:43Um, but lots of news, uh, Jay, we're going to get to some future bets with you, which we know that's always sort of your hallmark.
3:51It's one of the things you're best at. So we're going to get to some great, what your favorite NFL future bets
3:57are going to make everyone some money, but there's a bunch of news in the NFL.
4:02So I just kind of want to run through all of this and get your take on it.
4:07And, uh, we're going to start with, as I see a Colts banner behind you right there.
4:12Everyone knows you are a Colts man. Uh, your Colts have signed Keenan Allen to a one year deal.
4:18Yeah. Which I think was much needed for my Colts, given that Michael Pittman was a huge part of that offense last season.
4:25Naturally, they didn't really replace him. Until this signing, uh, Alec Pierce is obviously a question mark as to, uh, when he's
4:31going to be back and what condition he's going to be back, uh, with the ankle that he's dealing with.
4:37I think Josh Downs could soak up a lot more usage.
4:41I think he's a really good underrated wide receiver.
4:43But Keenan Allen, who is kind of had this strange second act or third or fourth act to his career where he had 122 targets last season.
4:51Uh, and just his ability, I think to kind of fill that Michael Pittman role.
4:56I'm not sure what the ceiling is for Allen.
4:58I think that he might just kind of eat into the production of the Colts receivers more than kind of provide a standalone value himself.
5:06But I do think this is notable because it's going to have an impact, uh, on, uh, on Pierce, uh, who I
5:12think a lot of the upside of Pierce was maybe he could expand on the more kind of shorter to intermediate stuff, more over the middle stuff.
5:20That's going to be Keenan Allen's role. I think Tyler Warren takes the tiniest of hits, so he should operate, um, still
5:27with plenty of value regardless of Allen. But yeah, I think this is notable because there are probably weeks where Keenan Allen
5:34might be the number one receiver, uh, on the Colts.
5:37I don't think he's going to be the number one receiver overall.
5:40Um, but this is a much needed addition for that offense.
5:43And, uh, there will be some ripple effects to the rest of the depth chart.
5:48Yeah, I genuinely agree with you. So I updated my ranks.
5:51I have Josh Downs now at wide receiver 35.
5:54You see it there on your screen. Pierce at 45.
5:57Again, still dealing with the injury a little bit.
5:59And I have Keenan Allen at wide receiver 60, which means he doesn't have a lot of value in standard redraft leagues.
6:06But if you are in a deeper league, if you're in a, in a best ball league, I don't mind a flyer
6:13because I do think there's going to be three or four pop-up games where, you know, you, you look up and somehow
6:19Keenan Allen six for 70 and two touchdowns. Um, I do think that for the two wide receiver sets, it'll still be,
6:26uh, Alex, Josh Downs and Alec Pierce. And then they'll, and they'll have, um, and then when Allen is out there, Allen
6:32has played outside some of his career. And so Josh Downs and moved the slot.
6:37Um, so you'll see that I'm with you on Tyler Warren.
6:40Look, I think he's still the tight end four, but truthfully what it does for me is, is I've seen some people
6:46say like, Oh, maybe he he's close to Colston Loveland.
6:49It's the tight end three. Maybe they're kind of interchangeable.
6:52I think this clearly puts Warren in the tight end two tier.
6:56Like the, you know, it's, it's Bowers, McBride, uh, Loveland as the tier one tight ends.
7:01And then I think the top of the tight end two tier is Tyler Warren, but it just separates him and Loveland a little bit more for me.
7:09So yes, I agree with you that, you know, you've got a lot of guys that are good around the line of scrimmage.
7:16They're good in the short yardage area. I still like Josh Downs.
7:20Keenan Allen has to stay healthy again. Right. But, uh, ultimately he's going to eat in all these and ultimately think this helps Daniel Jones helps the offense.
7:28And if Pierce isn't ready, they need to find, I don't know, you know, they need to find a guy like Adonai Mitchell.
7:35They need a field stretcher. Uh, Jay, if, if Pierce isn't ready, um, because obviously those two guys will just crowd around the line of scrimmage.
7:42It's worth noting that Keenan Allen and every single season he's played at least 10 games.
7:47He's had 70 receptions. So he's just a guy that seems to, you know, continue to continue to produce, you know, he
7:54was wide receiver 37 on a points per game basis last year, which not amazing, but also like better than you probably thought.
8:01Yeah. Devastating that you don't like my man, Russell Westbrook Akine, uh, to fill the Adonai Mitchell type of role.
8:07But yeah, I agree. I think this is maybe the guy who benefits most is just Daniel Jones having that kind of safety blanket over the middle.
8:15Um, because Jones, who I think is one of the most kind of compelling characters of this season.
8:20It's not just because I'm a Colts man, but I think just the range of outcomes with him is, is fascinating because we do.
8:27Some of us might forget that the Colts in the first eight weeks or so of the season, I mean, it's the greatest offense of all time.
8:35And so how much can Jones get back of his athleticism?
8:38And I think there's things that push in both directions where one, um, as a Colts man, I like to go back and watch early 2025 Colts highlights.
8:47And some of those throws from Daniel Jones, like he is absolutely ripping the ball off a standing start, layering it into tight windows.
8:54I'm just not sure that that kind of athleticism is going to be there.
8:58The power that he can generate at the same time.
9:01I think a lot of people are really scarred by how bad Kirk cousins looked off the Achilles because all preseason that
9:08year with Atlanta was like, no, Kirk's doing good.
9:10He's going to start week one. He's going to be fine.
9:13And then there just wasn't any power there. I think the difference though, is that Kirk, I think he did that injury
9:20on the Achilles when he was 35. Daniel Jones, 20, he was 28 when he did the injury.
9:25And so I think that is different. And I just think that with the way that, you know, sports science and kind
9:32of injury rehab has progressed, it's a little strange and it's probably drawing the bow a little bit too far, but I
9:38think that the way that like Jason Tatum came back from his Achilles for the Celtics and the way that the Jean-Tay
9:45Murray came back from his Achilles with the Pelicans, not to bring back to the NBA.
9:50I was just going to say, let the record show that it took less, the undercached for 10 minutes.
9:55When will Jay bring up an NBA reference? And the undercached there under 10 minutes for you to mention an NBA player in reference to the NFL.
10:03But yeah, I, you know, I get that with Daniel Jones.
10:07I do think he's a, you know, a QB two with some upside, which a lot of people qualify, but ultimately having
10:13it, having somebody like Keenan Allen just helps the offense overall.
10:17Right. And you could argue it helps, it helps Jonathan Taylor as well, just because it's, it's, he's a guy that can
10:23keep the chains moving and get them into scoring position more often, get them, keep the offense on the field a little bit more.
10:30Want to move on to our friend, the man of emotion, Todd Poles.
10:34Todd Poles says, quote, he's not sure at this time if Emeka Abuka with that toe injury will be available week one.
10:41I'm not sure if the question here is if Todd Poles is aware of Emeka Abuka is on his team, or if
10:47he just wasn't sure if whether he'll be available week one.
10:51Todd Poles, of course, the man of many emotions.
10:53Sometimes he blinks once, sometimes he blinks twice. It's all very exciting.
10:57Your thoughts on Emeka Abuka, who everyone is expecting this big breakout year after the hot start last year, tailed off towards the end, no Mike Evans.
11:05But the toe injury to me brings him down a little bit here.
11:09Yeah, Todd Poles is a very hard man to read.
11:12If he blinks three times, that means he's in trouble.
11:15And then you've got to send the authorities. But I think the thing here is that the way, so the way I
11:21would read this normally, if a coach who was a little bit more descriptive and animated had said this, I would read
11:28this as Emeka Abuka probably has turf toe or something along those lines.
11:32Like this is something that potentially could keep him out of week one of the season.
11:36We're four weeks away, then this is probably a more serious injury than was initially let on.
11:41Because it's Todd Poles that we have to, I think, assign some chance to the fact that he's just talking and he's
11:48just saying words with the media in front of him.
11:51Ultimately, I think if you slice it, this is you have to have a little bit of concern over Abuka.
11:57But ultimately, I would still think that he is likely to play week one.
12:01So, yeah, I proceed with a little bit of caution.
12:04But ultimately, all of the upside with Abuka still remains.
12:07He's still going to be the number one wide receiver and the clear highest upside guy in that room for an offense
12:14that you'd expect is going to throw a decent amount.
12:17So it wouldn't change the prognostication on Abuka too much.
12:19I changed him a little bit. So I moved him down to 42 overall.
12:24Still honestly, kind of a fourth rounder. I'm at wide receiver 21.
12:27There's kind of like a, you know, there's kind of a bunch of wide receivers in that tier.
12:33And that's sort of in that, you know, round three to four tier.
12:36And so I just, he was at the top of that tier for me.
12:41He's now towards the bottom of that tier because this could linger into the regular season.
12:45To your point, if it is a turf toe, just a little nervous here.
12:50Moved Godwin up a few spots. I'm at wide receiver 33, 69 overall.
12:53That's right. I said 69. So I don't think it affects him too much, Jay.
12:58But yes, for a little bit, for a little bit, you just sort of move him towards the end of that, you
13:04know, that tier where there's, you know, those, all those guys.
13:08The McConkeys, the Devontae Smiths, all the guys kind of in that, the Rasheed Rices of the world where there's, where they're good, but there's some question marks.
13:16To me, he's just now at the bottom of that tier.
13:19Speaking of guys that are in that tier, Chris Olavi is in that tier.
13:23And he moves up a little bit for me because his teammate, Jordan Tyson, suffers a pretty bad hamstring injury.
13:29He's likely to miss potentially almost two weeks. Chance he starts the season on the pup.
13:34It's obviously not great as you see the tweet there on your screen from Ian Rappaport.
13:39I moved Jordan Tyson all the way down to 113 overall, wide receiver 50.
13:43Still very bullish on his dynasty prospects, Jay. But, you know, this is tough for a rookie wide receiver who's dealt with
13:50hamstring injuries throughout college, you know, throughout his career.
13:52Coming in and now he's going to miss the rest of training camp and he's not going to start the season with the offense.
13:59So, tough look for Tyson. Still think he can be a factor down the stretch.
14:04But to me, our man Chris Olavi, I know you're a Saints man.
14:08Who dat? Our man Chris Olavi moves up a few spots here as well.
14:12Your thoughts on the Saints? I know you were a Saints man there for a minute, Jay.
14:17Briefly, during the Spencer Rattler era, I attached myself to the Saints and then jumped off the bandwagon as soon as they
14:24started to get good in the second half of the season.
14:27But I do think with Olavi, he was likely to be the number one guy anyway.
14:32He's shown that he can produce with Tyler Shuck, even if there isn't a really strong number two wide receiver, to take some attention off of him.
14:40So, I think ultimately this news, while bad for the Saints and perhaps bad for their offensive ecosystem overall, I think it's
14:46good for Olavi just when you factor in the additional targets he's going to take.
14:51And I think that the downside risk for Olavi this season, outside of the obvious injury stuff and the concussion stuff, was
14:57that maybe Jordan Tyson is just a superstar from day one.
15:00And Jordan Tyson is going to take a lot more of this offense than we thought.
15:05That is now largely out the window for the time being at least.
15:09I think the other thing too is that, yeah, one, two months off a hamstring, that's a lot.
15:14So, this is a bad hamstring and he's had problems with his hamstrings before.
15:19He's had a lot of problems with his lower body before.
15:22And then the other thing is just that when he comes back, say he's back in two months, he's not going to
15:28be playing 80% of the snaps straight away. It's going to be a slow ramp up period off the soft tissue, particularly given his history.
15:36So, yeah, there's not many leagues where I'd be super confident in drafting Jordan Tyson.
15:40And Chris Olave certainly sees a boost off of this.
15:43Valiant Vincent weighs in saying so much for all the Jordan Tyson has so much more value than Carnell Tate.
15:49And I think that's right, Vincent. Like I, in my dynasty ranks, I moved Tate just ahead of Jordan Tyson.
15:55Obviously, Jeremiah Love, number one. Even in super flex leagues, I would move Mendoza down to four.
16:00But just, you know, we were so close on Tate and Tyson and we like Tyson.
16:05Maybe a little bit more explosive, better situation. But now, given this injury and that, to your point, it's a similar injury,
16:12I moved Tate over Tyson in my dynasty and my rookie ranks here.
16:15Moved Tyler Shuck, who we love a lot, but I moved him down a little bit as well again without Tyson.
16:22The last thing here is Juwan Johnson, man of the hour, hero, hero to many, friend of mine.
16:27Juwan Johnson has a ring, of course, thanks to Live at Noon on the Cock.
16:32Juwan Johnson suddenly gets an uptick here. I moved him up a couple spots because he suddenly becomes the number two pass
16:38catcher on what we think is going to be a better than average Saints offense.
16:43Yeah. You mentioning Juwan Johnson, me mentioning Jason Tatum, all the yes mentioned props.
16:47He's a cashing early on in the show. But yeah, he's going to be, he will be, to your point, the number
16:53two pass catcher on what should be. I think people may be getting a little ahead of their skis or over their
17:00skis or whatever that saying is with the Saints offense and just how good it is going to be, just the median outcomes.
17:07The Saints last year, yeah, they finished well, but they were beating up a cupcake schedule.
17:11I was going to say pancake schedule, which could also apply, I guess, if you want to string it out.
17:17But I think the Saints, there is scope for this offense to be good, but I think we need to see it.
17:24But regardless, Juwan Johnson, yeah, he's the number two pass catcher on what should be a competent NFL offense.
17:30Ved wants to know, has everyone started practicing near a substation?
17:33Just with all the injuries that's happening here. It's a good question, Ved, very possibly.
17:37Worth noting one good stat for you here. With Tyler Shuck is the starting quarterback, Chris Olave.
17:42Again, no Jordan Tyson, of course, last year. 18.8 fantasy points per game.
17:4629% target share, over 82 yards per game. So as Stuntman and Chuck says, Soft Tissue Issue is another great team name.
17:53It's a good point. Soft Tissue Issue is a very good team name.
17:57Hey, I got some breaking news into the, you know, got an alert, you know, here on my little Fantasy Life app.
18:03But, or not the Fantasy Life app, I should say the Bleacher Nation app.
18:07It's no longer the Fantasy Life app, but it's the Bleacher Nation app.
18:11But the Bleacher Nation app says, the Giants are signing free agent running back Najee Harris.
18:16Your man, Jay Croucher, Najee Harris. Your man, Najee, is going to go to the New York Giants.
18:21Your team, what a day for you. Your boy, Najee Harris, to your team, the Giants.
18:26It's a one-year deal from Ian Rappaport and Mike Garofalo.
18:29They are reporting it. Of course, Harris was with the Chargers last year before he, too, had an Achilles injury.
18:35Yeah, one of the strangest moments. One of the strangest moments of my life was being at my daughter's preschool.
18:41And one of the dads coming up to me and raising his fists and going, Najee Harris.
18:46I've never met this guy before. But apparently someone was connecting my previously good name with Najee Harris.
18:51So that association will always live with me. I think the people that are Najee Harris fans, Jay, and there are so few of you.
18:59Yes, all of them. There are just so few of you.
19:02I just think there's like a camaraderie that when you guys see each other out in the streets in public and everything like that.
19:09Yes, it's like an underground society trying to overthrow the government.
19:13Najee Harris fans. Yeah. I do think. But the first rule of Najee Harris club is you don't talk about Najee Harris, obviously.
19:19You can't mention that, Jay. That's a good point.
19:22So I think that what this signals, because it didn't really seem to me that the Giants needed another running back.
19:28They have a running back room of three guys who you would expect to see snaps.
19:33I wonder how much that Tyrone Tracy blown block on Jackson Dill's blind side made the Giants reevaluate what they needed to do here.
19:40And I wonder if I was being pessimistic, what this might signal about the Giants' expectations for Cam Scadaboo and just how
19:47much of a workload he is going to have.
19:49Ultimately, this is all speculation. Najee is just he's another guy in that room for a team that will probably run the ball a decent amount.
19:57I can't imagine my man Najee is going to have much value, but he could eat in potentially to the other guys in that room.
20:05Yeah. I mean, it's interesting. I mean, it just feels like a depth signing.
20:09I don't know that Najee, especially again, off of the injury that he had last year, how much burst he's going to
20:15have and really how much run he's going to have.
20:18But maybe this is just depth given, you know, Scadaboo's injury potential.
20:22And I mean, that that blown block by Tyrone Tracy, like that was bad.
20:26And, you know, and you never know on stuff like that.
20:29I mean, that's that clip has been blown up so much on social media.
20:33But like, you know, did he audible out? Is was was Tyrone Tracy, you know, did Dart call the wrong play?
20:40Was Tyrone Tracy supposed to supposed to run a flat, you know, and never supposed to block?
20:45And then, you know, just Dart didn't read the blitz.
20:48You just you never know on stuff like that.
20:50And we just won't know. But, you know, from the naked eye, it was a bad moment for Tyrone Tracy.
20:56And certainly Harris is a veteran that has some ties to the Giants coaching staff as well.
21:01So anyway, more of a, you know, more of a right, more of an annoyance for those of us that have invested
21:08in Scadaboo and potentially Tracy in larger leagues than any standalone value for your guy Najee.
21:13Speaking of New York running backs, Jets head coach Aaron Glenn said that running back Brees Hall will be out two to
21:19three weeks, but he expects him to be ready for the regular season opener against the Titans.
21:24What a great this is why, you know, everyone says, wow, Jets Titans.
21:28And I'm like, that is why there's betting. That is why there is fantasy.
21:32Jets Titans week one. You kidding me? God bless betting.
21:35God bless fantasy. And God bless prediction markets. Anyway, Brees Hall seems like it's a little something about nothing here, but he
21:42is somebody that's dealt with injuries throughout his career.
21:45So maybe a slight raised eyebrow. Yeah, I think so.
21:48I think to Glenn's point, he's probably going to be fine for week one.
21:52It seems like a great one kind of groin injury.
21:55So he should be good to go. But there is some downside, at least with Brees, given that the rest of that
22:01Jets running back room is pretty good, I think, and particularly Braylon Allen with his upside.
22:06I think that while Brees Hall expect certainly he is going to be the number one guy in that room, he's going
22:13to have the lion's share of the carries. There are worlds where Brees being the number one guy looks more like 55,
22:1960% of the workload instead of 70, 75%. And that matters a lot for where you're taking Brees Hall.
22:25That is kind of Jets' time. Or as Stuntman Chuck calls him, Brees Fall.
22:29Stuntman Chuck's been on fire, Jay. I know you've been out of town.
22:33You've probably been able to watch any of the shows.
22:36Just so you know, to start the season, Stuntman Chuck has been on fire.
22:40Been a strong start to the season. I saw him making a reference to saying something in a Brackett's Pat Doherty voice
22:46as though Pat Doherty is getting grouped in with like Al Pacino or something, saying things in a certain voice, which I like.
22:53But yeah, ultimately just kind of a little slight red flag on Brees, but he should have enough time, I think, to
23:00get over this and be 100% for the opener.
23:03Yeah, I mean, I moved him down slightly. I'm at 31 overall, but still running back 14.
23:08I think it's a very solid mid-tier RB2 with some upside there.
23:11Three straight seasons of averaging at least 85 yards from scrimmage.
23:14The first preseason game of the Jets on, you know, the last past Friday, played 10 of the first 11 snaps.
23:21So, yeah, I think I wouldn't mind taking Braylon Allen late, who I think is a really interesting handcuff, as it were,
23:27or insurance running back, as we like to say.
23:30But yes, it's worth noting, keeping an eye on, but so far seems like good news for Brees Hall.
23:36No serious injuries to him. And, you know, and obviously, you know, the Jets always stay healthy, so I'm sure he's fine.
23:42I'm sure it'll be, I'm sure it'll be fine.
23:45You know, everyone loves playing in the Meadowlands. Let's see.
23:48Damian Vigone says, Jay, might put my life savings on Aaron Glenn, Coach of the Year.
23:53Your thoughts? Yeah, I played that game last year, Damian.
23:56It didn't go well on Aaron Glenn, Coach of the Year.
23:59I do like the thought where I think that some of these guys, teams overachieve in the NFL and sometimes just go
24:05four or five wins over their win total. And so, I think that the gap between guys like Aaron Glenn, Todd Munkin,
24:12their Coach of the Year prices and the make playoff prices for the Jets and the Browns are a little bit too far apart.
24:19At the same time, you're betting on success for the New York Jets, which is always fraught with peril.
24:25I also don't think Aaron Glenn is a particularly good coach, but I do think there is some weird upside with the
24:31Jets just because Geno Smith, I think that we may forget a bit too quickly that from 2022 to 2024, Geno Smith
24:38was like a good above average quarterback. He was atrocious last year in Vegas, but I'm not sure they were running a
24:44real NFL team last year and a real NFL offense.
24:47And Geno was okay when he was kept clean.
24:50It's just that he was never clean in that offense.
24:53So, I think there are worlds where Geno Smith could be a competent, approaching kind of league average-ish starter with a much better offensive line and some weapons.
25:01So, yeah, and the other thing too, Matthew, with the Jets is that if they aren't competent this year, then I think everyone's getting fired.
25:09So, I think that this team has incentive to try and push to be a 7-8 win team and won't perhaps tank
25:15as they probably should to get a quarterback of the future.
25:19So, yeah, I think there are – and the Jets have an easy schedule too.
25:23So, I wouldn't be putting the life savings on Aaron Glenn, but there is some scope, I think, for the Jets to surprise a bit.
25:30Big Caboose321 says, When I have a draft and look at Brees Hall on my roster, I'm filled with existential dread.
25:37That's also, by the way, a good fantasy team name, existential dread.
25:40I don't know. I think Brees Hall is going to be fine, actually.
25:44I think Brees Hall is going to be fine.
25:47And I agree with you. As long as Geno Smith is like basically, you know, the 18th best quarterback in the NFL,
25:53the 20th – like, he just needs to be competent.
25:56He doesn't need to be good. He just needs to be, like, competent.
26:00And I think if he's competent, I think the Jets have a chance to surprise some people.
26:05Maybe not make the playoffs, but, you know, at least be, you know, good adjacent.
26:10Competitive adjacent. As we talk about. All right. Let's move over to a team that is legitimately good, and that's the Bears.
26:16And our man, somebody we've talked about on this show quite a bit, Kyle Manungai, expected to miss multiple weeks with a hyper-extended knee.
26:23Thank you, Grady Jarrett. Good job, Grady. Good job.
26:26Good effort there as he gets to tackle in practice.
26:29He's got a hyper-extended knee. He's going to miss multiple weeks here.
26:33So, you know, rocket ship emoji for DeAndre Swift, Jay?
26:36I guess so. Certainly early on. I think that the Bears' offensive line multiplied by Ben Johnson, that scheme, is just one
26:42of the surest things just in terms of how they generate yards before contact.
26:46This is going to be one of the best offenses in football, one of the best running games in football.
26:52And we saw that, you know, DeAndre Swift, he has that level of comfort already in this game.
26:58He has the trust of the coaching staff. So, yeah, Manungai is perhaps the more interesting guy longer term and had probably
27:04more upside than DeAndre Swift just because he's younger and we've seen less of him.
27:09But, yeah, when you're talking about multiple weeks with a hyper-extended knee, I think there's a decent chance that this extends into
27:15the season or at least pushes Manungai further behind Swift in the pecking order.
27:19So, yeah, DeAndre Swift, again, one of the least sexy names that you can ever draft because he's been around forever and
27:26everyone's been burned by DeAndre Swift over the journey.
27:29But I think he saw a lot. We saw last year that he's still got plenty in the tank and he's still going to be very useful.
27:37So, he is the exact type of profile that gets drafted later than he should just because he isn't super exciting.
27:43Yeah, I mean, look, I'm at 45 overall. I'm at running back 19.
27:47I think he is one of the better values in the draft.
27:50Again, not only is Kyle Manungai potentially going to miss some time or start slow, but also Luther Burden's banged up a little bit.
27:57So, just in terms of overall touching the ball on what we think is going to be a really good offense, DeAndre
28:04Swift is somebody who, you know, was top 12 among running backs last year in rushing yards per game.
28:10He's been a top 24 running back last year in 75% of his games.
28:14Like, he's just somebody that has a very high floor, doesn't get hurt, shows up a lot.
28:19It's going to be a pretty good offense. I've made a – if you want to go read my 100 facts you
28:25need to know before you draft, it's a column on fantasylife.com.
28:29It's free. I'm a company man. I have a bunch of basically pro-DeAndre Swift facts where I just don't think people appreciate.
28:35This is a guy that was, you know, like was a upper-tier RB2 last year, and he's being drafted as a low-end
28:42or mid – you know, as a flex running back.
28:45And so, I'm higher on him than consensus. But more importantly, I just think he's – to your point, he's not sexy.
28:51People are just sort of like over him. But, like, I think he's somebody who absolutely outperforms his ADP, and the Monungay injury only helps Swift's game.
28:59I have – I moved Monungay down to running back 42, by the way.
29:03Still useful at the end of drafts. Still ultimately, I think it's going to get, you know, a decent amount of workload, but doesn't catch passes.
29:11The injury doesn't hurt. So, more of a running back 4-5 for me.
29:15Okay. One more running back injury for you here, and that's Jeremiah Love.
29:19So, the positives here, Jay, are that in the first preseason game, Jeremiah Love played 16 of the 22 snaps in the
29:26first two drives for Arizona in their first preseason game.
29:28The bad news, of course, is that he then gets injured and is dealing with a high ankle sprain.
29:34But so many people are talking about, like, why was he out there?
29:38And I think that's a fair criticism. But if you look past that, the positives are he was out there.
29:44There's no concerns about Tyler Algier. They clearly want Jeremiah Love to be the guy.
29:48It's just – it's a high ankle sprain. So, how far down are we moving Jeremiah Love?
29:53Yeah. Again, I would be a little bit concerned just because it seems like he'll probably be okay for the opener.
30:00There's going to have been, I think, like 31 days all of a lapse between the injury and week one, their game against the Chargers.
30:07But the issue is with high ankle sprains. And this doesn't seem like a particularly bad one.
30:12It's like kind of the ongoing joke of how high or how low is the high ankle sprain.
30:18It's one of the lower high ankle sprains that we've seen.
30:21But I do think that there are going to be residual effects from this.
30:25We see that when guys come back from high ankle sprains, it does typically sap their explosiveness a little bit.
30:31Their explosive metrics tend to go down coming off high ankle sprain.
30:35I know CeeDee Lamb talked about this last season when he came back from the high ankle sprain.
30:40Yeah, you call him Aids. Okay. I call him CeeDee Lamb.
30:43But when CeeDee Lamb, when he came back, he spoke about how he didn't really feel like himself.
30:49And I think that may be the case. There's that downside with Love.
30:52But at the same time, I think that just his profile, the amount of usage that he'll get.
30:58Obviously, we know the talent. I think ultimately he'll be fine.
31:01And the upside is that this has happened now, you know, four weeks before the season as opposed to in season.
31:07But, yeah, it's a little bit of a concern.
31:10But ultimately, I don't think it should knock him too much.
31:13Aloha Bricks checking in, Jay. And he says, what's the panic level on this Love injury?
31:18You know what I mean? Like on a scale of 1 to 10, I'd say like a 3, maybe a 4.
31:24I'd say 3 and a half. Yeah, it's not ideal, but it's also like he's going to – even if he misses
31:31week one, he ultimately should be fine. He's young.
31:33And it's clear that he's going to have a big role on this Cardinals team.
31:38I moved him down from just down to running back 15.
31:41I'm at 33 overall. Algier moves up a little bit.
31:44I'm at running back 43 and 132 overall. So, you know, 13th, 14th round for Algier.
31:49So, you know, Jeremiah Love right there and like into the third, top of the fourth for Jeremiah Love.
31:55Speaking of the Cardinals though, Jay, it is time for your favorite futures.
31:58And one of your favorite futures, because we know you love these crappy teams, is the Arizona Cardinals over 3 and a half wins.
32:06Yeah. This one kind of reminds me of our cousin Sal on Bill Simmons' podcast.
32:10He used to do his favorite prop for the Super Bowl and it was always like Gary Russell over one and a
32:17half yards rushing and Cardinals still is just the stupidest one.
32:20And I feel like this is my version of the Gary Russell rushing over the Cardinals over 3 and a half wins.
32:26And the reasons why, firstly, I don't understand why everyone has just assumed that the Cardinals – when did we decide that
32:33the Cardinals were just absolutely terrible and horrific and were warranting a three and a half win total?
32:38This team last year when Brissette took over as a starter, so week six on, they were 14th in success rate as an offense.
32:45The first half of the season before all of their defensive players got injured, they were the most injured team in the league last year.
32:53They were league average defense. I think the roster overall is better than it was last year.
32:58I think this team has talent. We know about the players at the skill positions for a three and a half win total team.
33:05They probably have more fantasy relevant players than anyone who's ever had that win total.
33:10When you think about Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison and Jeremiah Love and Michael Wilson, I think Brissette is a competent quarterback.
33:16And so I think the offense will be okay behind an okay offensive line too.
33:21And then I think the defense can be better than it was last year.
33:25And the main thing with the Cardinals and the reason why their win total is so low is that you look at the schedule and it's brutal.
33:33They have the toughest schedule in the league. They play in the NFC West.
33:37But the thing is, is that with schedules, yeah, it's easy to chalk up losses in the middle of August when you just look at the names.
33:45I think it's just a little bit more difficult to absorb that injuries are going to happen.
33:50The schedule is probably not going to be as hard as it looks right now.
33:55Brock Purdy will get hurt and they'll play Mac Jones instead.
33:58And one of the nines, yeah, like stuff like that will happen.
34:01Last year, the Bears were projected to have the second hardest schedule in the NFL going into the season.
34:07They ended up with the fourth easiest because the Lions were a bit worse than expected.
34:12The Vikings were a bit worse than expected. They got to play Baltimore and Cincinnati without Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.
34:18So ultimately, I think this Cardinals, I don't think they're going to be particularly good.
34:23But I do think that they will be competent enough to go 4-13.
34:26And that's all you need here. So, Matthew, I'm stealing this from Matt Harmon.
34:31I'm sick and I didn't think of this myself.
34:33But I am a little Cardinals curious this season.
34:36I think this team can be okay. I like that.
34:39I'm going to shout out Matt Harmon. And I like that.
34:42I'm a little Cardinals curious. Fair enough. Look, I like the over 3.5.
34:46The other thing is, I just think an improvement of the coaching staff.
34:50Listen, we think LeFleur is a good coach. We think he's a good mind.
34:54So, yeah, with a healthier defense and good skilled players, can they sneak one out or two?
34:593.5 is just such a low number here. All right.
35:02So, the Cardinals over 3.5 wins. Fair enough. And on that one, I don't like this one.
35:07Cowboys to win the NFC East. By the way, someone out there throwing out a good fantasy football team name is Success Adjacent.
35:14Cardinals curious would also be a good fantasy football team name.
35:17But at, you know, you like, last year, of course, famously, you were in on the Giants to win the NFC East.
35:24And so now, here you are, Jay. You want the Cowboys to win the NFC East.
35:29To be clear, I was on the Giants at like 80-1 to win the NFC East and they didn't.
35:34But, yeah, I am also a little Cowboy curious, Matthew.
35:37I think that this team, which is not as much as a limb to go out on as the Cardinals.
35:43But the main thing here is that offense is more stable year to year than defense.
35:48And I'm very confident in this Cowboys offense. So, the number five offense in the league last year, despite CeeDee Lamb being
35:54injured, missing time, and then playing hurt when he got back.
35:58The young offensive line, I think, will continue to improve.
36:01So, I think this offense is going to be elite.
36:04Dak Prescott, very stable as a top-end quarterback. And the defense last year was the worst in the league.
36:09And I don't think it can really get worse.
36:12I think that it will regress. Defense tends to just regress year to year.
36:16Even if your defense isn't particularly good, just through luck and turnovers, you can just kind of stumble into being slightly below average.
36:23And I think the Cowboys, I think they've made meaningful upgrades.
36:26They've made a change of defensive coordinator, creates a bit more variance.
36:30They got a full season of Quinn and Williams.
36:33They had Rashawn Gary, Kobe Durant. They have two first-rounders that they drafted on defense in Malachi Lawrence at Ed Rusher.
36:39And I think, more importantly, Caleb Downs, who should be excellent from the get-go.
36:43So, I just think it all adds up to a team that can be a top three, top four offense.
36:49And then, I think, can approach league average on defense, or at least be the 18th best defense instead of the 32nd.
36:55And when you think about the questions that the Giants have across the board, the Eagles with a new offense, losing A.J.
37:02Brown. And also, the Eagles, a team that was more dependent on their defense, which has a bit more kind of variance year to year.
37:09And then, your commanders, who, if Jane Daniels is healthy, the commanders will be fine.
37:14But I think the Laramie Tunsil injury really hurts them there.
37:17So, I think that the Cowboys, plus 215, I think that they should be shorter than that.
37:22I think they should be more bunched with the Eagles as the favorite in this division.
37:27Yeah, I don't mind those. I don't mind the bet here, because I agree with you.
37:32Listen, I do think the defense is – I think the offense is going to be very good.
37:37And the NFC East is such a crazy division where it feels like there's a different winner almost every other year, despite the Eagles' dominance.
37:45You know, I mean, again, the commanders won a couple of years ago.
37:48And it's so – I don't mind the bet.
37:51If their defense is decent, maybe the Eagles, you know, screw up.
37:55I mean, again, new offense coordinator could be a disaster.
37:58Jalen Hurts under center quite a bit. If the commanders aren't right there, we don't think the Giants are ready.
38:04I could absolutely see the Cowboys doing it. By the way, SEC Man 01, I don't know if you saw this on
38:10your screen, but he says, what you, Jay, you actually meant to say is that you're ankle curious.
38:16Is that you're ankle curious. Listen, because you're here just as a special guest.
38:20Oh, wow. Full shot. Oh, wow. No socks. No socks.
38:23Organic. Yeah. Organic ankle showing. Little ankle – yeah, go.
38:26Wow. Onlyankles.com. Yeah, for all my followers on ankle fans.
38:29The anklets. The anklets. We're all in here. With two T's and an E.
38:33Yeah. Terrifying. Terrifying stuff. Exactly. That's a good backup name.
38:36All right. Jay, God help us, says Matt Ennis 06.
38:39What do you mean, God help you? You're welcome is what you are, Matt Ennis.
38:43You're welcome. You don't always get ankle content, but, you know, Jay's here.
38:47We've got a special guest. So, you know what?
38:50I'm going to treat you guys, as Cobra Kiger says, freshly shaved.
38:53You know what? Listen, when you get my age, hair grows in a lot of weird places, but not on my ankles, for the love of God.
39:01I've never shot my ankles or even entertained the sword.
39:04Yeah, of course. It's outrageous. People are crazy. All right.
39:07So, after trashing the Cardinals under Kyler Murray from last year, right, and pointing out how much better they were under Jacoby
39:14Brissett, you like the Vikings to win the NFC North.
39:17Basically, 50, you know, 5-1, more or less. It's a plus 5-10.
39:20And you like them with Kyler Murray. My man, Kyler Murray.
39:24Never early, just wrong. I'm sorry. Never wrong, just early.
39:27Actually, God. Yeah, you can fix that up. Or maybe I didn't.
39:30Maybe it's a Freudian slip. Yeah. Never wrong, just early.
39:33Kyler Murray, you like the Vikings to win the NFC North.
39:36I'll shut up now. I do. I'll get us back on the rails, Matthew, with my favorite random fact from last NFL
39:43season is that the Vikings went 9-8 on their team at a winning record.
39:47They certainly had the vibes of a 5-12, 6-11 team.
39:50They actually went 9-8. The Lions were the team that finished last in the NFC North.
39:55And so this is largely a bet on two things.
39:58One, on Brian Flores just being able to manufacture a top-10 elite defense.
40:02The Vikings had the number-3 defense in the league last year.
40:05The year before that, they had the number-2 defense.
40:08They do not have the talent level of a top-3 defense.
40:11They did not have it last year or the year before.
40:14Brian Flores is a magician, and I'm just going to bank on his ability to craft a top-10 defense.
40:20And then all you need, really, to compete in this division if you've got a top-10 defense is to have a solid offense.
40:27It doesn't have to be an all-world, absolutely elite offense.
40:30It just needs to be competent, average to above average.
40:33And I think that Kevin O'Connell can get there with Kyler Murray.
40:36Kyler's kind of being talked about as the next iteration of all these reclamation quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield and Sam Donald and Geno Smith.
40:43And Kyler is – those guys all went from heading out of the league to slightly above average.
40:49Kyler's not far off there already. Kyler has been a fine quarterback when he's been in the league.
40:54He's been a kind of league-average quarterback. And now he's arguably in the best context of his career with Kevin O'Connell.
41:00And so I think that the offensive line should be solid.
41:04Christian Daris saw another year removed from the ACL.
41:06We know all about the weapons. We know about Justin Jefferson and Jawan Jennings, who's a solid signing.
41:12TJ Hawkinson, another year removed from his injury. Kevin O'Connell, who – Kevin O'Connell's never actually had a top-12 offense in the
41:18NFL, despite being thought of as this kind of genius play caller.
41:22But I do think Kevin O'Connell is a solid offensive-minded coach.
41:25And so I think this offense is just going to be competent across the board.
41:30And you pair that with what I think will be a really good defense because of Flores.
41:35And I think this can be a double-digit win team.
41:38And then the rest of the division, the Packers are going to be without Micah Parsons for some time.
41:43And the offensive line is in flux. The Bears, as Ben Johnson has said himself, are the number one regression candidate in the NFL.
41:50And then the Lions, who have a very easy schedule.
41:53And I think they should be the favorite just because of that schedule.
41:57They have huge issues on defense with Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph both on the pup list.
42:02Obviously, we know what happened with Terry and Arnold.
42:05Kirby Joseph, Matthew, a couple weeks ago, he was talking about what happened with his knee.
42:10Where he got injured at the start of last season.
42:13It was week to week and has just never been seen from since.
42:17He said a couple weeks ago, when I got the MRI, I said, the only person that can help me with this is God.
42:24That's not what I want to hear about my defensive player of the year candidate safety.
42:28God is the only person we could save. So there's a lot of question marks on that Lions defense.
42:34I think that the Vikings are well positioned to be maybe not the highest upside team in the world.
42:40Because I don't think Kyler has that MVP ballot type of upside anymore.
42:44But I think this can be a 10-11 win team.
42:47And a plus 5-10 to win the division. I think that is value.
42:50Yeah, I mean, the Lions are literally the favorite, as you mentioned, with the schedule.
42:55And then Green Bay and Chicago at plus 3.05.
42:58I mean, I think the Bears are interesting, too.
43:00But certainly, great defense, great coach. We've seen them win this division before.
43:04Very tough. But I don't mind that bet at all.
43:07Let's move to the Chargers now. And a McConculus one here.
43:10Lad McConkie. The McConkie's man himself. Over 8.99.5 receiving yards.
43:13So talk to me about McConkie in this Mike McDaniel offense, Jay.
43:17Yeah, so this is a simple one. Keenan Allen, now of my Colts, he is vacating 122 targets in that Chargers offense.
43:23A lot of those targets are from the part of the field where Lad McConkie can most feast.
43:29And that is out of the slot. And so I think that just the fact that those targets are gone and they
43:35haven't really been replaced, it's just like it's going to be by committee somewhat.
43:40But I think Lad McConkie is going to absorb a ton of those targets.
43:44But McConkie last year, and I get it, like it was the year from hell for McConkie.
43:49Fantasy managers were livid with what he served up relative to expectations.
43:52But I think between Allen going, between being used in the slot more often, between having, I think, an elite offensive coordinator
43:59who can scheme up McConkie and use him in creative ways to generate more explosives.
44:03Last year, McConkie, like his contested catch rate, which was crazy high.
44:07So rookie was crazy low. He just, every 50-50 ball, it seemed like he was losing.
44:12So I think ultimately, like you just step back.
44:14It's Mike McDaniel. It's the Chargers with both of their tackles are healthy.
44:18It's Justin Herbert. And McConkie, I think, is clearly by margin the number one wide receiver on that team.
44:24And so he had 1,149 receiving yards as a rookie.
44:27That was missing a game as well. So I think that he should be able to get 900 plus receiving yards.
44:33Lad McConkie is someone, like if anyone's going to make, I don't think this is going to happen.
44:38But if someone were to make the JSN type of leap, I think McConkie would be a prime candidate.
44:44Him and Devontae Smith would be the two that I'd look at for that.
44:48Yeah. I mean, and we were talking earlier in the season, in the preseason with Dan Graziano, who, you know, Dan, of course.
44:55We've had dinner together, me, you, and Dan. And so he was on the show, and he was at Chargers camp who
45:02said, it's clear that the passing offense is going through McConkie.
45:05It's worth noting that Mike McDaniel had at least one 900-yard receiver in every single season.
45:10He was coaching Miami. Of course, it's Waddle and Tyreek Hill, but we all really like McConkie's talent.
45:15And again, the line's just 899.5. So I'm on that bet with you as well.
45:20Let's move here to Philadelphia. Just got a few minutes left, but Jalen Hurts over 424.5 rushing yards.
45:25He's had at least 600 rushing yards in four of the past five seasons, right?
45:29You know, so Jalen Hurts, another year to get to this number?
45:33Yeah, this line's been bouncing around from 400 to 424.5, so obviously the lower, the better.
45:38But I think Hurts, last year he had 424 rushing yards, and I think that that is basically his floor.
45:44And that's where it's set. This year, Hurts has been incredibly durable all throughout his career.
45:48Last year, he only had 1.6 designed runs per game, non-sneaks.
45:52That was basically, it's never been nearly that low.
45:54It's basically half as much as his next lowest point in terms of design runs.
45:59I think last year we learned with the Eagles offense, if we don't have the threat of Jalen Hurts as a runner, then this offense just doesn't work.
46:07And I think that everything we've heard out of training camp is that Sean Mannion is dying up a lot of design runs for Hurts.
46:15He looks just a lot leaner and more spry.
46:17Everyone's been raving about his speed in camp. And so I think we're just going to see more of Jalen Hurts as
46:24a runner, which obviously has a lot of fantasy repercussions as well, if he's going to be using his legs more.
46:30So I think that Hurts also just, he doesn't have AJ Brown to bail him out with go balls nearly as much.
46:37I think that Hurts is going to be running more this year than he was last year.
46:42No, I agree with that. I'm in on a big year from Jalen Hurts.
46:46I have him fairly high, much higher than consensus.
46:49But to your point, like he's hit this in every year but one, except for last year where he was just a few yards short.
46:56So yeah, give me Jalen Hurts over 424 and a half rushing yards.
47:00Now, this one is, this one's a really interesting one because I know, I know a lot of people think, and I don't think they realize this.
47:08So they hear you and they know that you're a professional bettor.
47:11And of course, they've watched you for years, you and I for years on Happy Hour.
47:16But I think some people are like, oh, he's a professional bettor.
47:20So all the bets, he just likes the bets in terms of he thinks this is absolutely going to happen.
47:26And while that's true in some cases, the other cases is where you're just, you're looking at a market.
47:31You are somebody who's a former market maker himself.
47:34You spent five years running the trade desk at a major betting operation in the world.
47:39And so sometimes you just see a mispriced line and you just really like, you're like, the odds shouldn't be that.
47:45And I feel like that's the case here. Malik Neighbors to get at least 1,500 receiving yards, that's a 10 to one.
47:52Yeah, so Neighbors is the ultimate high variance player, I think.
47:55And a lot of times these lines are just derived off whatever you're kind of over under for the season.
48:01And then it's this kind of same standard deviation that's applied.
48:04The right tail outcomes for Malik Neighbors are pretty enticing.
48:07And I think that Neighbors, he just has immense upside where what if the knee is just fine?
48:12Like what if the knee is better than anticipated?
48:15And all the reports out of camp have been very positive.
48:18It looks like he's trending towards playing in week one.
48:21And if he is just fine, which for a player as young as him, I think is well within the range of outcomes.
48:28Then it's like, who's the number two receiver behind Malik Neighbors on this offense?
48:32Like it's Malachi Fields or Darius Slayton? Like Malik Neighbors, the one healthy year he's had in the NFL, his rookie season,
48:39he led the NFL in terms of target percentage on his team.
48:42So I think that Neighbors, between the talent, which is undoubted we know about the talent, it's why he's taken so high
48:49in the draft, between his ability to earn targets, between the lack of competition and between the health upside, I just think
48:56there are worlds where we look back at Malik Neighbors as a top three wide receiver.
49:00Just for context, like 1,500 yards, that generally means you're the third or fourth best receiver in the NFL.
49:06I think that's well within the range of outcomes for Neighbors.
49:09So he's someone where not as interested in the median kind of outcomes for Neighbors, but the upside, I think, is immense.
49:16Yeah, I don't disagree with that. By the way, Odell Beckham Jr.
49:19in the mix for that number two wide receiver after Neighbors.
49:23And some camp reports are like, hey, it's going to be Isaiah likely.
49:27Dan says, what if the knee is fine? And yeah, what if I win the lottery?
49:31So there's some skepticism out there for Malik Neighbors, but I disagree.
49:35Listen, I've seen a couple of like 10-second highlight clips from training camp, and that's all I need to see.
49:41That confirms my priors. He's obviously 100% healthy when you've seen like, you know, just him running one route in shorts.
49:47Well, clearly he's all the way back. He's good to go.
49:50Don't worry about it, Dan. Yeah, he's all the way back.
49:54Jay, you and I are in the middle of a, you know, I have to be a company man.
49:59You and I are in the middle of a guillotine league draft.
50:03All of the NBC gang, we're doing that one.
50:06It is taking quite a while because there's a few slowpokes in the draft.
50:10But I just, it gives me an excuse to bring it up is that like everyone should join a guillotine league.
50:16Go to guillotineleagues.com. Download the app or just play it online.
50:19We've got a brand new app this year. You can, I mean, I think you can, like, it's much improved.
50:25The technology, the app, the experience. It's, we've, we put a lot of work into it.
50:30I think it's, it's much better this year. I would say the app has made a JSN 2025 type of leap.
50:36Really exploded onto the same. In our league that we're drafting at the moment, Matthew, the guillotine is all about you're supposed to draft a high floor.
50:44Yep. Because you just can't have, you know, the goose eggs and stuff.
50:48I've gone the other way. I've taken Malik Neighbors and Christian McCaffrey, these like really high upside guys who could, may not even play week one.
50:56So I'm going with a different approach there. Probably the wrong approach, but hopefully, hopefully those guys are good to go.
51:02No, I think it's, but it's a very much, it's a very J approach because what will happen there is that either
51:09you will just crush us all because they're all healthy or they won't be.
51:13And then you'll be done with us and you'll be like, good, I don't have to deal with this anymore.
51:19And I'm out. I don't have to, I don't have to set my lineup and figure it out.
51:24By the way, and if you want to, if you want to play in a paid league, by the way, we're taking no fees.
51:31So you can just, you can, all the prize money go, all the entry fees are in the prize pool.
51:37A lot of other places, they take a good cut off the top, but we're not doing that here as well.
51:43Listen, Jay, thank you so much for doing this.
51:46Hopefully we get to see you again soon. Absolutely.
51:49Pleasure, Matthew. Always fun to chat. Always fun. So listen, everyone follow you on Twitter and Instagram at CroucherJD.
51:54And you can check out his work, of course, at NBC Sports.
51:58Say hi to Connor for me when you see him in the halls.
52:02But Jay, it is closing time, which means, as you know, you don't have to go home, but you can't stay here.
52:08So the regulars have been on fire. I appreciate you guys all so much.
52:13Another great show tomorrow, live at noon, Wednesday, noon Eastern.
52:16And of course, please like and subscribe to the YouTube channel.
52:19For Jay Croucher, I'm Matthew Barry. We will see you all tomorrow.
52:22Peace. Out.
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