Week 3 Preview

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 26 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Sep 25, 2026

Published

Fri, September 25, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Bo NixA.J. BrownBaker MayfieldBrock BowersCade OttonCeeDee LambDak PrescottDerrick HenryDrake MayeGeorge PickensJameis WinstonJordan WhittingtonJustin HerbertKyler Murray

Player analysis

Player insights

A.J. Brown

NegativeInjury50:43

The Patriots' offense is significantly hampered by the absence of A.J. Brown, losing a vital vertical element and overall physicality that makes the unit look up-and-down until his return.

Insight page

Baker Mayfield

NegativeProjection95:23

The source expresses concern over Baker Mayfield's performance, noting he is bottom three in EPA per dropback and success rate versus zone coverage. He is struggling to process the field, often resorting to quick vertical shots, check-downs, or scrambling rather than sifting through zones. His decision-making when pressured has regressed, with a high scramble rate that is missing opportunities to exploit open zones.

Insight page

Bo Nix

NegativeUsage36:25

Bo Nix is the opposite of Matthew Stafford when pressured, preferring to get the ball out of his hands immediately, which creates different issues for the Broncos' offense.

Insight page

NegativeUsage37:57

Bo Nix has a tendency to immediately check down if he does not like his first look within two seconds of the play; while this works when he gets the ball out on time and playmakers like RJ Harvey can create yards after the catch, it makes him vulnerable to complex, muddy defensive looks.

Insight page

Brock Bowers

PositiveBreakout40:16

The source suggests that inserting an all-pro level pass catcher like Brock Bowers into the Raiders' offense could be the catalyst that takes the unit to another level, potentially helping them overcome middling efficiency metrics.

Insight page

Cade Otton

NegativeUsage100:51

The source notes that Cade Otton has been frequently schemed into blocking assignments against high-end pass rushers like Dallas Turner, which is a negative usage pattern for his fantasy outlook as he is being used as a blocker rather than a receiver.

Insight page

CeeDee Lamb

PositiveUsage20:00

CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are driving the Cowboys' offense, which has been highly successful in play-action (63% success rate) because defenses are accounting for them in surprising ways, including using heavy personnel groupings.

Insight page

Dak Prescott

PositiveProjection20:00

The source remains highly optimistic about the Cowboys' offense, noting that Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are performing as expected, and the unit ranks third in the NFL in EPA per play and leads the league in points per drive despite some early-season inconsistency.

Insight page

Derrick Henry

PositiveUsage14:00

Derrick Henry is benefiting from the Ravens' impressive multi-tight end run game, specifically the blocking efforts of rookie tight end Qadir Hibner, who has been instrumental in creating lanes for Henry.

Insight page

Drake Maye

NegativeProjection51:24

Drake Maye's performance has looked shakier in his second year, with a noticeable decline in confidence and shot selection compared to his rookie season; he is currently struggling to throw into tight windows.

Insight page

George Pickens

NegativeRole20:00

George Pickens is performing well, though there are minor timing issues, such as running a route shallower than Dak Prescott intended; the source expects these to be resolved by week six.

Insight page

Jameis Winston

NegativeProjection108:21

The source questions the viability of the Giants' offense under Jameis Winston, noting that his arm strength appears to be shot, making the offense difficult to watch and limiting its effectiveness.

Insight page

Jordan Whittington

NegativeInjury32:43

Jordan Whittington is dealing with an injury, further complicating the Rams' ability to run 11-personnel sets and forcing them to lean into 13-personnel.

Insight page

Justin Herbert

NegativeProjection118:58

The source highlights that the Chargers' offense is struggling with operational issues, including penalties and poor execution, which is negatively impacting the team's outlook despite Herbert's presence.

Insight page

Kyler Murray

PositiveInjury105:35

The source indicates that Kyler Murray is expected to return to action, which significantly improves the watchability and offensive potential of his team.

Insight page

Lamar Jackson

PositiveProjection15:25

Lamar Jackson is in his prime, showing a refined feel for the position and elite manipulation of defenders. He is currently scrambling on 10% of his dropbacks, the highest rate since 2023, and is expected to have explosive rushing production against a Cowboys defense that struggles against quarterback runs.

Insight page

Mark Andrews

NegativeUsage3:48

The source notes that Mark Andrews has contributed to the Ravens' recent offensive struggles through uncharacteristic drops, which have been a factor in the team's inexplicable September losses.

Insight page

Matthew Stafford

NegativeUsage36:09

Matthew Stafford tends to hold onto the ball too long when pressured because he wants to make the play, which contrasts sharply with Bo Nix's tendency to get the ball out quickly.

Insight page

Puka Nacua

NegativeInjury29:24

The Rams' offensive strategy is significantly hampered by the absence of Puka Nacua, forcing them to rely on heavy personnel and tight end-centric schemes.

Insight page

Rashod Bateman

PositiveUsage16:40

Rashod Bateman is benefiting from Lamar Jackson's refined ability to manipulate defenders, as evidenced by a recent high-level completion where Jackson held a flat defender before hitting Bateman on time.

Insight page

Xavier Smith

NegativeRole32:56

Xavier Smith is being used in unconventional roles, such as a de facto fullback, due to the Rams' personnel shortages, though the source questions the sustainability of this approach.

Insight page

Zay Flowers

NegativeInjury14:34

Zay Flowers is unlikely to play in the upcoming game against the Cowboys. The source notes that while his absence is significant, the Ravens' offense has shown the ability to move the ball consistently without him.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,115

0:00Welcome to The Athletic Football Show brought to you by the U.S.

0:03Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card. I'm Robert Mays. Week 3 is a packed slate.

0:07Tons of stuff for us to dig into today.

0:10Let's waste no time. Me, Dave and Derrik talking about all week 3, all things week 3 in the NFL.

0:15Let's get to it right now. Week 3 is here.

0:18A bunch of good games that we want to dig into today.

0:21We have two games of the week. One, we're going to give the full treatment to.

0:25The other one, because we've talked so much about those teams recently, including in last week's Game of the Week treatment, we're

0:31not going to dive all the way in. But our Let's Blow It Out Game of the Week, Week 3, Ravens versus the Cowboys in Brazil.

0:39I also liked Lamar. Did you guys know this Lamar yesterday?

0:42Paying homage to Vin Diesel in Fast Five. That is Brazil.

0:45I didn't realize it was a Fast Five tribute.

0:47I just thought it was... I don't think it really was, but in my mind it was.

0:52It was really funny though. In my mind, Lamar is just a huge Fast Five fan.

0:56Derrik, if you're not familiar, the reporter said to Lamar that the Cowboys are America's team.

1:00And he said, well, this is America, that's Brazil.

1:03I did not hear that, but I like him claiming another territory.

1:06Derek, have you ever seen Fast Five? I have not seen, I don't think any of the Fast and Furious movies in full.

1:12This is heartbreaking. What did you expect me to say?

1:15It was absolutely heartbreaking. This is, there has never been a bigger millennial Gen Z gap on this podcast than Derek and

1:21Katie never having seen any of the Fast and Furious movies.

1:24I don't expect you to have seen them. I know I've had them on.

1:28Have I finished any of them? I couldn't tell you.

1:31I don't expect you to have seen all 10 or 11 of them, but to not even see one is crazy.

1:36Fast Five is a genuinely great movie. It's one of my favorite theater going experiences of the last 20 years.

1:42Is that the one where they drag the safe down the highway?

1:45Correct. Yes. That's my favorite one too. And it's the one where The Rock is introduced.

1:50It is truly, I mean, reinvigorated the franchise. Well, Derek, me and you will just watch them all in succession one day.

1:56We'll just spend a day doing that. We'll need an entire 24 hours.

1:59It's going to be a lot of coffee. That's not how I expected to start the week three preview.

2:04Speaking of Brazil, Ravens and Cowboys. The reason this is the game of the week.

2:08These are two teams at the table, which you can take issue with if you want to.

2:13But two teams that I think a lot of people believe would be playoff teams coming into the season.

2:18The Ravens were my AFC Super Bowl pick. And I think two weeks in, even if the Cowboys have been really good

2:24on defense, I think we can make an argument that.

2:27Because they certainly haven't been good on defense. Even if the Cowboys have been really good on offense, if you were somebody

2:33that firmly believed in the Ravens coming into the year as I did.

2:37And were somebody that firmly believed in the Cowboys coming into the year as I did.

2:41One of those to me two weeks in, even with the Ravens losing last week, feels a lot sturdier than the other.

2:47I agree with you. And I think the Ravens have had the better two weeks than the Cowboys all things considered.

2:53But when we talked about this, I said there's a little bit of disillusionment between these two teams.

2:58And certainly the Cowboys defense has not looked remotely as good as we hope that it might.

3:02The Ravens do look sturdier. But the reason I said that is I think Ravens fans everywhere expected to be done with

3:08the inexplicable bullshit September loss when John Harbaugh left.

3:11And to immediately turn around and have that happen under a new regime with a new coach.

3:15I would be really annoyed by it, even if I think the Ravens overall are fine.

3:20I would be annoyed by it. But the idea that there is something endemic about the Baltimore Ravens that allows this to happen.

3:26I just don't believe that to be true. Like, I don't think that type of flaw follows an organization around as the

3:32entire coaching staff, the way you play a million things get switched out.

3:35I also like in a lot of other situations, especially towards the last couple of years, it felt like I mean, some

3:42of them are like Mark Andrews dropping passes and stuff like that.

3:45And say flowers fumbling at the end. So but like in a lot of other cases, too, it was like coaching errors made by like John Harbaugh.

3:52And I did not really feel like that's why they lost this game.

3:56It was just like the Saints defense kind of boat up there at the very end.

4:00And like Chris Moore drops a pass. And then they I think the other thing, too, is some people were saying they

4:06should have gone for that fourth and one after the Chris Moore drop.

4:10That's a situation where like you have eight minutes left in the ballgame.

4:13Like you probably think you're going to get the ball back with more than a minute and a half.

4:18And you don't think the other defense is going to score.

4:21And so like in hindsight, that looks like a bad decision.

4:24But I'm like, you dared the other team to make the only really good drive that they've had all day.

4:30And they did like shit just happens sometimes. And I think in terms of the coaching, you probably want to call a

4:36different play on third and one than you did.

4:38Declan Doyle literally said that today. He's like, I would like that one back if given an opportunity.

4:43It's his second game calling plays like that. That's why I'm going to give this group a little grace and not say

4:49you have the old Baltimore Ravens problem. I hear you.

4:52It's still it's just annoying that this happened again when everything is supposed to be different.

4:56Annoying versus concerning. I think that's an important distinction.

4:59That is because we had Ravens fans like in the discord this week.

5:02Like, should I should we be worried about this?

5:05It's happening again. I'm like, let's let it happen again.

5:08Like at least one more time before we think this is some weird poll that has carried over from one staff to the other.

5:14Where I think the biggest gap is between these two teams right now is obviously when the Ravens have the ball and

5:20the Cowboys defense is on the field, because I think that the Cowboys defense was better in week two.

5:25We can talk about some of the areas where they were a little bit better.

5:29I still think when you're watching this group right now, you can kind of feel the gears grinding of guys in a

5:35new system thinking really caring a lot mentally and what this Ravens offense is going to do to you.

5:41I think if you're in that state, especially on the second and third level, just with all of the movement, all of

5:47the layers are adding in the run game. Even if I think over the course of the year, the Cowboys defense can kind of find its sea legs.

5:54I think this being your matchup in week three when you're trying to get onto solid ground is potentially concerning for Dallas.

6:00I think especially for the defensive line, like I think if we came into the year and thought this was going to

6:06be a little bit of a slow process for the defense in the back end.

6:10And I'm like, yeah, like some of these coverages are pretty complex.

6:14There's a lot of communication. You have like almost entirely new starters back there.

6:17Like the fact that that looks as shaky as it does, and especially right now, like they just have guys banged up.

6:23So like, of course, that doesn't look perfect. I've been a little bit concerned with how slow it feels like the defensive

6:29line is playing off the ball, especially in the run game.

6:32Like you can tell that like Quinnen Williams is thinking Kenny Clark is thinking all these other guys like they're not just

6:38going and attacking and that's that's obviously partly like how the defense is ran, but it's going to take some time to

6:44get those guys to adjust to that. And like, are they going to be able to solve that by Halloween?

6:50Totally. Maybe you're now playing a Ravens offense that I think is so clear in their identity as a rushing team and

6:56has so much movement, especially on the interior with how often they bring in like Hibner specifically to run some of those

7:02motions and get movement on like the three techniques.

7:04Like this just feels like even if the Cowboys can be fine later on defense later in the season, this feels like

7:10a nightmare week three matchup for them. I thought Brian Schottenheimer had an illuminating quote when he was asked about Quinnen Williams

7:16this week, and there's been a lot of consternation about Quinnen.

7:19Concerned about he's healthy. I mean, yeah, a lot of just a deal that he signed this summer.

7:24And Schottenheimer made the point like he's new to this scheme.

7:27We're asking him to do a lot of stuff.

7:30And he mentioned he's played it at Alabama. He did some of this stuff when he was in college.

7:35But at that point, you're talking about the 2018 season.

7:38It's been a minute since he's done this. And I think the juxtaposition of what Dexter Lawrence did has done for the

7:44Bengals the last two weeks, particularly the way he just owned the Texans game.

7:48You are clearly not seeing that from Quinnen Williams to this point.

7:51I am far from ready to panic about it, but that is that's just the blunt truth.

7:56And so this is a hell of a week and a hell of an opponent to still be in that not having

8:02to think about it phase like they're not there.

8:04And good, good luck getting there this week, especially with what I think as we're recording this, they're about to get on a 10 hour flight.

8:11And on top of that, it's this Ravens offense.

8:14It sounds like a tall order. My thoughts about the Dallas defense coming into the season and thinking they could be like

8:20an average unit by the time the season is over.

8:22And there's a chance that as they get more comfortable, we do see improvements.

8:26I'm open to that, and I think we can have that conversation.

8:29But that outlook about the Cowboys defense was driven in part by them having a hyper elite player on their front in the middle of this whole thing.

8:37And I think for reasons that are understandable, he has not looked or felt like a hyper elite player at this point in the season.

8:44And I think it extends to the entire defensive line and the front seven as a whole.

8:48There was a play against Washington where I watched John Bates just walk Donovan as a rocket off the line of scrimmage.

8:55That can't happen if you were going to be able to hold up in the way that the Cowboys want to hold

9:01up with some of these boxes because of how Christian Parker wants to play.

9:04And I do think that over time they could potentially get there.

9:08And that's why I'm not panicking about the Cowboys overall, because the defense, it might take a little while.

9:13But the offense is going to be good enough, I think, to keep them afloat as that process happens.

9:18There are other units. I was talking about the charges with Barnwell yesterday where you have new play callers.

9:23And neither one of those units is capable of lifting the other one up while that new unit and that new play caller gets comfortable.

9:30In Dallas, I think that's possible, but I don't think it's going to be possible by the time we get to Sunday.

9:36I think, like Derek said, it may take till Halloween.

9:39I'm a little panicked about the immediate future for this defense for a variety of reasons.

9:43And number one is just what the Cowboys are doing against the run right now.

9:47I mean, they're bottom four in rushing success rate.

9:50They're bottom seven in EPA per rush. They're one of seven teams in the league right now, allowing a double digit explosive run rate.

9:56And going back to the Saints game, we talked about this in the recap show.

10:00The numbers will tell you the Ravens ran the ball well and just kind of got away from it.

10:06But rewatching that game, I thought the Saints did a phenomenal job of forcing the Ravens to just be patient and play it slow and steady.

10:13And I think that's why they got away from it, because they did not have a designed run of more than nine yards in that.

10:19That's what it was. It was a lot of five, eight, seven, eight, five.

10:23The Saints were daring the Ravens to be cool doing that all the way downfield.

10:27And a week after blowing the doors off the Colts, they didn't want to.

10:31And I mean, Pete Werner and Caden Ellis, I thought were fantastic in that game.

10:35Just I mean, the stuff they did rushing the line of scrimmage, putting pressure on Lamar and what Pete Werner was able

10:41to do to help prevent any of those sorts of gains from happening.

10:45I just don't think I buy the Cowboys have that.

10:48Not not right now. Anyway, you got to try to play that way at the very least.

10:52If you have that, you need to try off the line of scrimmage and trying to read out everything that's happening.

10:58I think run blitzes trying to cut up the front, just doing everything you can to try to make a mess of this thing.

11:05Because if you're sitting there with all of the moving parts that the Ravens run game has right now, and you're asking

11:11and Jay Sean Barham, who I think, again, commendable improvement from week one to week two.

11:15You could just see him really trying to internalize a lot of the things they talked about the week before, being really

11:21demonstrative with the communication, all of that. But that doesn't mean that he's capable of sitting there three or four yards off

11:27the ball and processing everything the Ravens are about to throw at him.

11:30I think trying to do everything you can to create negative plays if you're the Cowboys run defense is how you have

11:36to approach this the same way that the Saints did when they were having success last week.

11:41I couldn't agree more because I think the Ravens are going to get movement and move you off the ball if you don't do stuff like that.

11:48And I think this is an interior where the zone running scheme, in theory, has a lot of answers for stuff like this.

11:55But you have a rookie right guard. You have a center who's never really started before, even if he looks fine.

12:01And you have a left guard who has been on the team before, but he is still working with new pieces around him.

12:07And so I think attacking those guys, like I think one of the on the first drive of the game, the Saints

12:13got Ioane to miss on like a fire, the linebacker through the A-gap and he just whiffed.

12:17And so if you can do some of that play, I'm thinking about when I say this.

12:22And he and like Ioane, I think week one looked good.

12:25Week two, I thought he looked a little bit slower, a little bit heavier.

12:29And so I was like, OK, if you can throw some stuff at him.

12:33And like, honestly, that's what Barham should be coming out of college.

12:36He was a tweener. Like we were like, is he going to be Frankie Louvoo or something like that?

12:41And I was like, you should probably think about trying to use him that way.

12:45I think the last point about the run game specifically, I'm so impressed already at the layers that the Ravens have built

12:51into the multi tight end run game. Like when they're in 13 personnel, there's some full house stuff that they're doing.

12:57They can tap into some Niners esque stuff where they have one of those tight ends going in that slam motion and

13:03changing the strength of the formation just an outside zone.

13:06Derek and I really delved into this on the hangover show last week.

13:09If you guys didn't listen to that, what they're doing with Hibner, you guys can watch it.

13:14I'm sure they'll do it a ton in this game.

13:17They'll be in 13 personnel. Hibner will be on one side of the formation.

13:21He'll go in motion. They'll snap the ball before he crosses the center.

13:24And it's a zone run to the side where he's going into motion.

13:28And it almost acts like he's creating like either a lead or wind back block by inserting into the middle of the offensive line.

13:34It's a really cool idea. And the fact that they're doing that in combination with all of the other things they've already

13:40trotted out, it can take a while for a new scheme offensively, especially on the ground to hit.

13:45There's only so much timing you can work out during training camp.

13:48And so the fact that they're already in this place three weeks into the season is just immensely impressive.

13:54Hibner's averaging a block a week where when I see it, I like blink at the screen, you know, like week one,

14:00he like sat his guy down on the goal line on the on the Derrick Henry run.

14:04I'm honestly blanking on what he did in the Saints game, but he had a block against the Saints where I was like, this kicks ass.

14:11I can't believe this guy's a day three rookie doing this in week two.

14:15I have that in my notes, Dave. I'm actually glad you brought that up.

14:19It was first quarter with about nine minutes left.

14:21He smokes Pete Werner on that exact motion that we're talking about.

14:25Where he just gets open and he just Werner's there and he just meets him in the hole.

14:30Two more things I think they're worth mentioning on this side of the ball, but three more.

14:34Zay Flowers probably not going to play. Obviously that matters.

14:37I don't know how much it matters in this game against the Cowboys defense specifically.

14:41I think they're still going to have a hard time because the Ravens were still able to move the ball pretty consistently

14:47against the Saints last week, even with Flowers not playing.

14:50Personnel wise for Dallas were without Kobe Durant and P.J.

14:53Locke. Look, Marquise Bell played a ton last week with P.J.

14:56Locke and Malik Hooker hurt. It was not a good situation.

14:59This defense was going to be holding on to their hats when healthy over the first stretch of the season.

15:04The fact that now we're already on safety number four in this game when, again, and the safeties matter so much in

15:10the run game when you're trying to play this way because they're having to fit the run from depth.

15:15And that was a consistent issue last week against Washington when Bell started playing.

15:19So that's something to watch. And then the last point I wanted to make about this, and I felt this way watching

15:25Lamar on the rewatch, and it's come up when I was watching Josh Allen earlier this year.

15:30I legitimately think that we might be in store for an all-time collective quarterback performance season by the best guys in the league.

15:36And I say that for two different reasons. One, all of these guys, our top three guys that we think we all

15:42just collectively understand have been the best three quarterbacks in the league over the last three or four years, the MVPs, Mahomes, Lamar, Josh Allen.

15:49Those three teams are three of the top four teams in the NFL in rushing success rate through the first three weeks.

15:55That has not happened. The Bills and Ravens have done that.

15:58The Chiefs have not done that. So we've built these incredible engines around these players.

16:02And watching out Mahomes has always been like this for a while.

16:05But watching Allen and Lamar over the first two weeks is really a reminder that they're just hitting their primes.

16:11Lamar's 29. Josh Allen, this is the age 30 season for both of these guys.

16:15This is the moment where the mental and the physical is converging at the exact right place, where they're still as talented as they've really ever been.

16:22And now their feel for how to play the position is just more refined than it's ever been.

16:27There was a play against the Saints. It's a simple like nine yard completion in the two minute trail where Lamar just

16:33peeks down to the flat defender, yanks him down for just a second, and then on time just rips the completion to Rashad Bateman.

16:40And we have a guy that is one of the all time supernova talents at the position.

16:44And same with Josh Allen, now really getting a feel about how to manipulate defenders in space.

16:49And I just think that the results have a chance to be insane in terms of the types of seasons we get from these three guys collectively.

16:56I would add to that my last real note about the Ravens offense.

17:00And we know how good Lamar is as a passer.

17:03And he hasn't always needed this over the last few years.

17:06He's running more right now than he has since the last time he won MVP.

17:10Obviously, he was banged up last year, and you could feel that when you watched him.

17:14He's scrambling on 10% of his dropbacks right now, which is the highest rate since 2023.

17:18He's had explosive runs in both games. And I think that's worth bringing up this week more than any other because the

17:24Cowboys are allowing a 70% success rate to quarterback runs.

17:27It was awful last week. Dart and Jaden. Dart in week one and Jaden in the first half of last week gashed them.

17:33I mean, Jaden had 69 rushing yards at halftime when he got hurt.

17:37And so. So it's a great thing to bring up.

17:40I don't think Lamar's doing Greg Roman shit, but I think Lamar is going to have half a dozen carries in this game.

17:46And I bet a few of them will be explosive.

17:49It's just a different and we've seen this throughout the league over the first two weeks.

17:53Design quarterback runs are down as they should be.

17:56They are no longer efficient plays. They are no longer explosive plays because defenses are more used to seeing them.

18:01And when you're playing out of these two high looks, they're just not going to go for explosives the way that they used to.

18:08So if you're not going to have positive gains and you have a chance of hurting the quarterback, why would you run design quarterback runs?

18:14But scrambles remain some of the most efficient plays in football.

18:17So these guys who can use their legs, even if they're running less in design plays, the scrambles are still backbreaking.

18:23And I think that we're going to still see the teams that have those guys and the teams they don't and the

18:29gap between them over the course of the year.

18:32Let's get to the other side of the ball here.

18:34When the Cowboys are on offense, Derek, I'm curious watching the Cowboys defense offense over the first two weeks.

18:40This team is third in the NFL in EPA per play.

18:43If you look at a lot of base metrics, they've been really successful.

18:46They lead the league in points per drive, as they pointed out earlier today.

18:50What is your feeling going back and rewatching the Cowboys offense over the first two weeks and kind of where things sit right now?

18:56I think they're good. I think I wanted to come out of the first two weeks being like, oh, my God, the

19:02offensive line and run game is what I wanted it to be.

19:06And I know that Tyler Smith is missing, but I think that there are a couple of other factors that would have like fallen to how that happens.

19:13I think the center and right guard who are both young players, I think it's year three and year two, respectively, for those guys.

19:20I wanted them to take a little bit of a step.

19:23And I thought that Terrence Steele, I know last year was a little bit up and down to just like hang on and be fine.

19:30The fact that they this team like traded for Broderick Jones because they didn't think Terrence Steele was be good.

19:35And he's been tough the first two weeks. And then the center and right guard.

19:39You know, I don't know if this is because they just have so many run concepts on the menu, but I've just

19:45especially last week, there were just a lot of mental mistakes where they're just like taking weird angles.

19:50They're not ready for blitzers in the A gap.

19:53They're not being able to pick them off, just stuff like that.

19:56And so I was just hoping for I think when I thought this offense would be dominant, it would be.

20:01Yes, Dak and CD and Pickens are doing the thing that we want them to.

20:06And also the offensive line looks dominant. I think they've looked good.

20:09I think they've looked a little bit hit or miss.

20:12I want to be very clear. I still think they're going to be good.

20:15I just thought maybe this would be a fireworks show a little bit sooner than it has been.

20:20It's exactly how I feel two weeks into the season.

20:23And I think the positive way to spin this would be it's been imperfect.

20:27There are still things where you can feel them searching.

20:30And the run game to me is the best example of that.

20:33And we can talk about some of the details about that in a second.

20:37But I think the positive spin on it is that's the situation.

20:40And they've still been third in the NFL in EPA per play.

20:43And they still have lead the league in points per drive.

20:46And I think part of that is because the way teams I think are accounting for them running the ball in a

20:52surprising way when you have Pickens and Lamb. And I think some of that is this team uses a decent amount of heavy personnel.

20:59And I think the defenses have accounted for that.

21:01This year so far, the Cowboys have 27 runs into blocked boxes.

21:05So where they have more players in the box than there are defenders per next gen.

21:09That's the third fewest number in the league. Which is surprising when you have those two guys on the outside.

21:14I think part of the way that defenses have allocated resources to stopping the run has allowed the Cowboys play action game to be really, really good.

21:22They have a 63% success rate off play action over the first two games.

21:26And you combine that with them getting stuffed on runs at the fourth highest rate in the league.

21:31So it's just been a weird mix of stuff.

21:33And the run game specifically, where they've actually found the most success, is on gun runs out of light personnel.

21:38And so you can just kind of feel them searching for the right answers in that area specifically.

21:43And I do think that there's a chance they find them and this thing really gets kicked into high gear.

21:49But two weeks into the season, I'm with Derek.

21:51It's just been a little bit more stop start and a little bit more hit or miss than I probably wanted to

21:57see in year two of this offense in this system.

22:00Which I still just go back to the fact that it's funny we're saying that about what has been one of the

22:06best offenses in the NFL through two weeks. You can look at it either way.

22:10You can be like, oh man, this is clunkier than I want it to be.

22:14Or you can say, man, when they really click into place, this thing is going to be terrifying.

22:19Because there was even in this Washington game, like a deep corner route that like was almost open.

22:24But like George Pickens ran it, I think, shallower than Dak wanted.

22:27And that's one of those that like, I don't know, by week six, they'll probably have that sorted out and that's going to hit.

22:34And so again, I'm still like very optimistic about what this is going to be.

22:38And I don't think I've moved at all about how high I took them in the offenses draft or anything.

22:43I just thought we would hit the ground sprinting instead of like running at a good pace.

22:48You know what I mean? I will say the one matchup thing specifically for this game, I mentioned some of that.

22:54I think the interior up and not up and downs, but like I thought this interior would kick a little bit more ass.

23:00Obviously, they're working with a backup left guard right now for the Ravens.

23:04Travis Jones is playing career football right now. He is insane for them.

23:07And I do wonder how much of this game he's going to be able to control because he's done it for them the last couple of weeks.

23:15The other guy I throw out, Tavius Robinson looks the best he's ever looked.

23:18So you've got two guys playing as good as they ever have on the front.

23:22And guess what? Let's address the the Aggie in the room because Nnamdi Matabike, we're recording this on Thursday.

23:28You can never say for sure, but all signs are pointing toward him doing something in this game.

23:33Did you see Anthony Weaver's quote at media availability?

23:35He said he told Nnamdi, you complete me. We'll see.

23:38We'll see what it looks like. But I mean, A, it's just exciting that he's in a spot where he should be

23:44playing football soon and B, adding him to a front where these guys are already playing pretty well.

23:49And again, this interior, this Cowboys offensive line has not been fantastic to start the season.

23:53Hopefully, Tyler Smith is back immediately when the IR window allows him to be.

23:57But I mean, even without Nnamdi and especially if he is available to play and look remotely like himself, that's something I'm watching very closely.

24:04The Ravens defense, I think, is another one of those units where a new play caller, even if the system is the

24:10same, probably will take them a little while to get fully unlocked.

24:13But there are a lot of things they have done over the first two weeks where I'm like, I have a lot

24:19of hope about what the best version of this thing can look like.

24:23They are fifth in the NFL in pressure rate through two games.

24:26The pressure stuff that they're doing with Kyle Hamilton specifically, he is blitzing on 22% of his snaps per next gen.

24:32It was 11% last year. And so they are really using him as a pass rusher and the different types of coverages they can play behind it.

24:39The depth that they're playing with reminds me a little bit of the Seahawks where they're forcing a lot of stuff underneath.

24:45I think they're tackling really well in space. There is a version of this defense as we get a little bit deeper

24:51into the season that to me can just be a buzzsaw.

24:54I don't think they're quite there yet, but I do think that it is potentially on the horizon.

24:59I've seen enough of the crumbs through two weeks.

25:01This was one where I was like, I kind of wanted to see it a little bit to believe it through two weeks, even if it's been imperfect.

25:09I'm like, yeah, they will be a top five defense by the end.

25:13Like, I fully believe it. It is funny that, and maybe some of it's because Matt Abike hasn't been available, but Jesse

25:19Minner's blitzing way more than we're accustomed to. Like, he blitzed 25% of the time with the Charters in 24.

25:24And then last year, it was all the way down to where he wasn't even blitzing 20% of the time.

25:30It's up near 32% right now, which is, I think it's 11th in the league.

25:34Like, not, it's not Brian Flores, but it's just not what I associate Jesse Minner with.

25:38And you immediately figure out why when you toggle the stats to show how they're rushing the passer with four.

25:43It's not very good. Like, when they're not sending those extra guys, I think they're bottom 10 in pressure rate.

25:49And it's a small sample size. I get that.

25:51But, like, you see why he's doing it, and I just wonder, is that to compensate for not having somebody like Matt

25:57Abike, or is that just a wrinkle in the Ravens defense that Jesse Minner is going to add?

26:02I think it's the latter. Okay. I think it's more about, I think it's more the latter.

26:07I think that overall, in being there this summer and hearing the way they were talking about how they wanted to play,

26:13I expected more aggressiveness, a little bit more man coverage, more just trying to force the issue.

26:18And I think some of that is, this is Jesse Minner's third year as a defensive play caller in the NFL.

26:23It's still fairly new. And something Mike McDonald said to me once that has always stuck with me is that when he

26:29was doing it the first year, and even his first year in Seattle, so two of his first three seasons, he was

26:35calling defensive plays to not make mistakes. It was more about making sure you were putting your guys in the right situations

26:41rather than putting them in an attacking mindset and calling it through the players and unleashing them to the fullest extent that you could.

26:48And I think, and I'm psychoanalyzing him here. Jesse Minner looking at the guys he has now, I think this is a,

26:54how can I truly unleash these guys in every way possible?

26:57I think it's been a little bit of a shift in mindset because there's been a shift in talent.

27:02That's my read on it. Watching Kyle Hamilton rip in from the slot as often as he has been when you just

27:08rewatch Ravens games has been very fun. So I hope you're right.

27:11And the corners are just so different than what they had in with the Chargers.

27:15Those guys played admirably, but that was a, we're just trying to get by at this position.

27:20Look at what the way that secondary is playing.

27:23We'll talk about that later. Yeah. All right. Let's get to our other game of the week for this week.

27:28We talked about at the top, we talked about the Broncos at nauseam last week in a game of the week.

27:34The Rams are an Island game, so we're not going to spend quite as much time on this one.

27:39We had two teams, both of these teams last week, huge bounce back games after the way that they looked in week one.

27:45Dave, I'm curious, looking at the way the Rams and Broncos played in week two, which of those bounce backs in your

27:51opinion was more impressive or more real? I might say the Rams, if Jackson Dart had been available, but when he goes

27:57out of the game, three snaps in and we already had questions about the Giants defense.

28:02I think what Denver did in the second half against the Jags is more impressive than anything.

28:06The Rams did against the Giants, even understanding that it was very fun to watch, but to, especially to have the game

28:12they did against the chiefs where we were staring into the abyss about what the Broncos season might be.

28:17And Derek pointed it out on the recap show at halftime, we were staring into the abyss.

28:22And so for them to write the ship and look as impressive as they did clawing back in that game, it's much

28:28more impressive than anything I've seen from the Rams so far.

28:31It they definitely needed a lot more like against the Giants team, especially once Dart goes out.

28:36It's like that was the game the Rams played was a dominant team.

28:39A top five team should look like that against the team that is expected to go sub 500.

28:44What the Broncos were able to do, I think especially with some of their second half adjustments, just especially playing different stuff on defense.

28:51I thought their corners and DBs played exceptionally well in the second half, like on top of the offensive line, because I

28:57think overall this was a team where the offensive line, the talent in the secondary and the talent up front on defense.

29:03Those were the pillars of like, this is why this team is elite.

29:06The fact that the secondary and the offensive line looked so much better in that game than they did in week one.

29:12It was like, OK, we can go back to thinking that this is a pretty good team again.

29:17The secondary being what it is, I think, really sticks out in this game simply because if Puka doesn't play, who are you really scared of?

29:24And you it's a little bit of a different world having Devontae Adams pick on Colton Hood than it is going against

29:30Patrick Sertan, potentially for a good chunk of this game.

29:33And so I just wonder without Puka and against this defense compared to what the Giants are doing.

29:38What is the Rams best path forward on that side of the ball?

29:42What would your answer to that be, Derek? What is the so I actually for as good as I think the Broncos

29:48defensive line is, I do think that you can get after them specifically in the duo run game, which is exactly what the Rams want to do.

29:55And I think reason being their edges are a little bit smaller.

29:58There are guys who are good against the run when they can knife under stuff.

30:02They're the cutback player, like all that sort of stuff.

30:05And then I think even like Zach Allen is having a phenomenal season.

30:09But because of the way he's built, where he's so top heavy, when you get four hands on him and like move

30:15him and like push him over a little bit, you actually can get movement on him, I think, with some of these double teams.

30:21And so I think them just making sure they're staying on track, trying to keep Denver out of some of their pass

30:27rush stuff, especially with, again, as good as this pass rush looks right now.

30:31And with the Rams offensive line being more like I still have some question marks about how good they're really going to be this season.

30:38This is the exact type of game where the Rams is philosophy of we're going to stay in duo.

30:43It's always going to be second and five and third and two.

30:46I think you absolutely have to hit on that in this game.

30:50Especially without Puka, especially without Puka, because I do think that just leaning into the heavy personnel stuff.

30:55I'm 100% with you. Downhill runs, trying to stay efficient.

30:57And what those downhill runs and staying efficient does, not only does it not put your offensive line in clear passing situations

31:03where it's second and nine, you're having to worry about the NASCAR dudes that the Broncos have.

31:08It allows you to stay in those heavy personnel groupings.

31:11And what the Rams do out of 13 personnel throwing the ball is just a lot of bullshit.

31:16Like the amount of tight end screens, the amount of spitting the ball to the flat, like that's how they really do want to play.

31:22Every once in a while, they'll be able to hit an explosive because they'll explode that thing out and they'll break up

31:28heavy personnel groupings on defense and they'll try to hit you with something vertical.

31:32But that's not what a lot of this offense is built out of when they're living in 13.

31:37And when Puka's not out there, you're going to have to.

31:40And so making sure you're ahead of the sticks this entire game is the most important component of this entire thing for me.

31:46And again, against Denver, their linebackers, they don't see that stuff very well.

31:50Like they had issues last year seeing all the boot stuff, motion to flat, like, you know, getting all of that sort

31:56of stuff handled and seen and picked up. And even just running sideline.

32:00He's a hammerhead, man. That's what he is. That's what he wants to be.

32:03They are between the hashes, move forward type of players.

32:06Everything else is a little bit of a struggle for them.

32:09And so, yeah, if we can get tight ends moving and just mishmash some of this motion stuff, I think it does

32:15cause a lot of issues for them. I was interested to see when I went back and looked, cause we talked so

32:21much about how impressive the Jags heavy personnel was in week one.

32:24They kind of did an about face. Like they, they ran 64% 11 against Denver.

32:28Like, I mean, they did some multiple tight end stuff, but they did not lean into it the way that I thought they might.

32:35And to your point, LA doesn't really have a choice.

32:38Like they're like, I mean, you're not going to run 11 and Jordan Whittington is dealing with an injury as well.

32:43So like if you wanted to run 11, what would it even be?

32:47They were doing it. The funniest play of the Rams game from last week against the Giants.

32:52I tweeted this out earlier today. They did the use check lead dash motion with Xavier Smith.

32:56He like led up on the nickel. He's 180 pounds.

32:59And like, that's just Rams nonsense, right? Where it's like, we're going to run the same plays in 11 that we do in 13.

33:06It looks a lot different when it's Xavier Smith and not Puka or Jordan Whittington.

33:10So they can do it, but I just don't think they want to do a lot of it for a team that's already so good in 13.

33:17How often are you going to do that with what's available to you?

33:21I just want to make a little bit of a small nickel, man.

33:24Maybe they do lean into that stuff. Maybe we see Xavier Smith de facto fullback in this game.

33:29Jake one McMillan is legit. Awesome. By the way, he's been playing.

33:32He's exceptional. Yeah, he's just that's the last question I have about this.

33:36How much man do we see from the Broncos?

33:38Because they did not do a lot of it last week against the Jacks.

33:42And the Jags last season were third in the NFL in the second half of the year in EPA per dropback against man coverage.

33:49The Rams were number one. I don't know how real that is in a world without Puka.

33:53Like I think within a world without Puka, do you actually want to play a lot of FU man coverage and dare

33:59them to throw the ball into tight windows and not give them any space?

34:03I think that to me is the right approach to this, even if the numbers from last year would tell you otherwise.

34:09The Rams numbers this year against man have been bad.

34:12It's been two games, but I think that's probably where I would drift to if I were Vance Joseph.

34:17I mean, especially with Patrick Chetan. I think I would like Devante Adams is still really good, but Patrick Chetan is currently

34:23the best in the league at what he does.

34:26And like Riley boss played in really, really good game last week.

34:29And if the guys that he's going to be going against are the Xavier Smiths and Kanata Mumpfields and stuff like that,

34:35it's like I think him and McMillan are going to handle themselves pretty well.

34:39To go back to your point about tight end screens and bullshit out of 13 personnel, the Broncos tackled better last week

34:45because it would be impossible not to. They still miss 10 tackles against Jacksonville.

34:49Like, I don't know if that's all the way fixed.

34:51It needs to be like I'd like Alex Singleton and Sternod need to have a clean day because I don't like you

34:57can't afford to give up bullshit gains on plays like that.

35:00Considering the firepower that the Rams have otherwise when the Broncos have the ball in this game.

35:05Number one thing I'm watching. I honestly think this is true for both sides.

35:09I think whoever protects better in this game will win.

35:12I think that's often true. But when you both anecdotally and the numbers look at the difference between Matthew Stafford and Bo

35:18Nix when kept clean and when pressured this year and over the last couple years, it's a drastic difference.

35:23And the biggest difference in watching the Broncos offense in week two versus week one is that the interior of the offensive

35:29line was able to hold up because the Jags just don't have interior pass rush.

35:33Like, that's not a strength of that team. The Rams is a different story.

35:37And so I think how the Broncos interior looks against a combination of Frisk, Frisk, Frisk, Kobe.

35:41Jesus, I did it again. He is frisky. A combination of Braden Fisk, Kobe Turner, Aaron Donald.

35:46Does it look more like week one than week two?

35:49That's probably the number one thing I want to see when the Broncos have the ball in this game.

35:54I think that's what I'm looking for as well.

35:56Like, the Rams just have so much pass rush juice.

35:59And I do think that, like, Donald looked fairly good last week.

36:02I do think it's funny, though, about, like, why these two quarterbacks are so up and down, I would say, when they get pressured.

36:09For Stafford, it's like he wants to play football too much, where he wants to just hang in there and make the throw.

36:15And he's like, I'm going to stay on this spot, goddammit, and I'm going to throw it.

36:20Bo Nix is the complete opposite, where he just, like, does not want to do anything but get the ball out of his hands.

36:26And I think it creates different issues. And to that point, I would say, like, I actually do trust this Rams secondary

36:32right now to come down, click and close, and tackle.

36:35McDuffie can do it. Watson can do it. The safeties are really good at it.

36:39If they can get enough of those plays out of Bo Nix, I do think that that is probably a pretty good

36:45avenue for them to win this game. It is a really good thing to point out, because this Rams team against a

36:51previous version of the Broncos that was a lot of underneath, it was a lot of yak.

36:56And they didn't do as much of that in week two, right?

36:59They were pushing the ball more down the field.

37:02But that has been the identity of the Broncos offense for a while now.

37:05Against a Rams team that couldn't tackle, that is a more viable path than it might be against this version of the

37:11Rams with the physicality that they've added in the secondary.

37:14And you're curious, the Rams played so much man last week.

37:1744% man was the most a Rams team has run since 2019.

37:20And you mentioned it, I don't remember if it was after the Niners loss or after Monday night, but we're just gathering

37:26data on how Chris Shula wants to run this collection of talent.

37:30Like, is that an outlier? And did you crank it up because Jameis Winston came into the game four snaps in?

37:35Or is that how the Rams want to be?

37:38I just, I think that's really interesting because he has the horses to do whatever he wants.

37:43So what is his vision for how he wants them to play?

37:46So I'm going to have an eye on that, just how Chris Shula wants this group to play, because I don't think

37:52we know the answer to that yet. I think anecdotally, Derek, I would want to make Bo Nix read stuff out more

37:58than giving him easy answers based on playing a lot of man coverage.

38:01I think I mostly agree with that. But he's a quarterback where I do think that if you can make things a

38:07little bit complicated for him, a little bit more muddier, especially in the back end, he has a tendency to, I think,

38:13to not hold on to the ball, but to immediately check down.

38:17If Bo Nix does not like what he's looking at the first two seconds in the play, he's just going to spit it out.

38:23And that works well enough when you get it out on time and RJ Harvey can make a guy miss whatever it's going to be.

38:30But like I said, I do think this Rams secondary tackles better than they had in the past.

38:35And so I don't know if you can do only that and get away with it.

38:39I think they're going to have to do more.

38:42I'll say this. He was doing more of it last week and he was trying to access throws last week that he typically does not.

38:49And I think the way that they were trying to attack windows, push the ball down the field, that's the version of

38:55the Broncos I think they need to be for them to hit their peak as a team.

38:59And I think what we saw against the Jags is a good start of them kind of heading down that path.

39:05All right. We're going to get to one thing from three more games on the week three slate.

39:10But first, let's take a quick break. All right.

39:12Three games. We're going to hit one thing from these games that we're watching in week three.

39:17Dave, why don't you kick us off? Raiders at Saints.

39:20One thing you're watching in this game. Go for it.

39:23This is really straightforward. It's a game I'm dying to watch, which with respect to those teams, I don't think I would

39:29have felt that way looking at the week three slate heading into the season.

39:32I what we got Ravens, Cowboys, Rams, Broncos. We'll get into we'll get into some of these other games.

39:38But like the Patriots are playing the Jags like this.

39:40Absolutely. Three weeks ago was like, OK, and then that's happening.

39:43And now after two games, I'm like, put put the Ram put the Raiders Saints game on TV.

39:48Like, what are we doing? You tried to make it a game of the week.

39:52I pitched for it to be a game of the week because.

39:56And I don't want to be mean and say this is as good as the vibes will be for either of these teams.

40:02I don't know if that's true. And that's what's so exciting.

40:05This could be the start of something special for one or both of these teams.

40:09And I just I want to watch this. And if that's not juicy enough, all signs are pointing toward Brock Bowers playing as well.

40:16And if you have like one thing holding you back about the Raiders, I don't know if the offensive success is fraudulent or not yet.

40:22I mean, the numbers are not good, like EPA per play, EPA per drive, points per drive, explosive play rate are all middling to bad.

40:29And so is it going to look that good when you're a playing a team that's not imploding or when you actually

40:35insert an all pro level pass catcher into this thing?

40:38Because that's that's the one problem. Like, it's very fun when Cody White and Trey Tucker are catching touchdowns against the Chargers team that's falling apart.

40:45But are you going to survive week in and week out in the NFL with that?

40:49I mean, Clint Kubiak is a hell of a play caller.

40:52But at some point, you need a difference maker.

40:55And maybe Brock Bowers can take this thing to another level.

40:58I don't know if I said this in conversation or on a podcast because my entire life blends together at this point.

41:04But as I think about and look at the chart at the Raiders in 2026, I think the best case scenario is

41:10you are a diet version of the 2025 Jaguars.

41:12And when I say that there are a couple different elements that lead into it.

41:16It's a combination of difference making offensive play caller is your head coach who's just doing a lot of really good shit.

41:22And I do think that coming off of last year, I really do like what Clint Kubiak is bringing to the table.

41:28Even if it's not, maybe it's one half tier down from what Liam Cohen has done.

41:33But I think generally similar archetype of a coach that we're talking about.

41:36The one I actually do think has a chance to be kind of one for one or close to it this year.

41:42What if Rob Leonard is just last year's Anthony Campanile?

41:45Oh, like out of nowhere defensive coordinator who kind of has something to him.

41:49Yeah, I like that because honestly, they've almost a lot of the hallmark in a lot of cases, especially I think for

41:55defensive coaches, even more than offensive coaches are guys who you didn't necessarily expect playing their best football.

42:00N'Kobe Dean looks really good for what they paid for him.

42:03The way they're using Quay Walker as like an on the edge player, like half the time him being this like he

42:09really helps them out in the run game because of his length.

42:12But you can drop him out. He can rush the passer a little bit.

42:16But the way that they're using Hezekiah Massus, like I think that he's been playing really well and they're letting him fire off the edge whenever he's like.

42:24I mean, there were a couple of plays in that Chargers game where they're like running tight formations and they're like, all

42:30right, you can just go if you feel like you're going to be in those formations.

42:34So the fact that almost all those guys are playing some of their best ball, it is really encouraging.

42:39And also like for all the weird stuff that we had, we know Max Crosby getting traded and does he want to play here?

42:46Yes, say it. He looks insane again, dude. He is amazing.

42:49Let's just make it let's make it our pet cause because we talk about it a lot.

42:53But like. Having a down year or getting hurt doesn't mean that you stopped being a good football player.

42:59He traded two first round picks for him. Yeah, but then I got this one.

43:03And they should have kept it. And then it was voided and everybody was like, oh, his knees suck so much.

43:08He'll never play good football again. And he's just out there terrorizing teams.

43:12And I do think the defense, again, there are enough parallels where the Jags were last year.

43:17You have one truly elite player. Josh, Josh, Josh, Ryan's Allen.

43:20Is that for the Jags? Max Crosby is that probably to an even bigger extent for the Raiders.

43:25The rest of your defensive line, the way that their defensive tackles have played against the run is encouraging to me because

43:31that was my biggest concern coming into the year is that they would just get blown off the ball.

43:36That hasn't really happened. Quiddie pay being like a rugged run stuffers.

43:39Your other edge player is again like a tick down from Trayvon Walker, but there's enough similarities there.

43:44Or adding a kind of weird veteran presence nickel that we didn't know how good that would be, but maybe it actually was the right thing for you.

43:52Like, I do think there are enough similarities on that side of the ball for them to be something akin to last year's Jags.

43:58Maybe they're not a top 10 defense, but they're a top 12 defense or top half of the league defense that we didn't expect.

44:05On offense, they don't have the horses to be the Jags from last year.

44:08Like, Trevor Lawrence isn't walking through the door, even if Brock Bowers is.

44:12And I think that part is okay. But I think overall, even if the multiplier isn't quite as strong because the talent

44:18isn't as good, having the same beats as last year's Jags and having that be the reasons we can get excited about

44:24this year's Raiders, I do think there's enough there for me to start believing in it.

44:28It just looks very buttoned up. And that's good.

44:31It's a stark contrast from where the Raiders were last year.

44:34A couple other fun things I just wanted to say while I was looking into this game.

44:39Kellen Moore reminded me this week that he and Kirk Cousins were on the same senior bowl roster.

44:43Kellen Moore has been coaching since 2018. What I don't like about that is it's just a real implication that those dudes

44:49are old as shit and both of them are younger than me.

44:53NFL is different. You know, it's like, it's the tweet.

44:55We're like, here he comes, the oldest player in the league at 33.

44:59But it used to be where I was slightly younger than that joke.

45:03And now I'm older than that joke and I'm not sure I like it.

45:06You mentioned the Cowboys success rate on play action earlier in the show.

45:10Do you know who's leading the league in EPA per drop back on play action?

45:14Is it the Raiders? Not only is it, actually, the Raiders are two.

45:18Guess who's number one? Is it the Saints? It's the Seahawks.

45:21Oh, that makes sense. That definitely makes sense. I mean, this is the guy that does it better than anybody and the

45:27team that's just trying to emulate what they had when he worked for them last year.

45:31Listen, buddy, you don't have to tell me how exciting it is that Kubiak ball is back.

45:36The fact that that's what the league is right now, again, we're just riding.

45:39We're going all the way back to like 2008 is just music to my ears.

45:44That's exactly what I want professional football to look like.

45:46It's so good. Like and honestly, like you said, Dave, I don't know how good this offense is ever going to be,

45:52even with when Brock Bowers comes back. But the offense makes sense and the quarterback is seeing it really well.

45:58It's just like a comforting offense to watch, I find.

46:00I think this feels very Raider focused because we talked a lot about the Saints, but like both sides of this are so fun.

46:07Obviously, I think what Chuck has done through two weeks speaks for itself.

46:11Alave is on a freaking heater like this. Like I said, this felt like a game that I would throw in a

46:17quad box in the late window because it is.

46:19It's a 330 game or a three game, which is like weird for the Saints.

46:23It's the Saints don't play at three because they're a central time zone team.

46:27But I thought this would be in a quad box and I could just like conveniently ignore it.

46:32And instead, I'm like, put this game on. How many late games do we have this week?

46:37I think five. I hate when they do that.

46:39Respect the TVs. Therefore, therefore, which is perfect. It's the right amount of late games.

46:43Is that just because we have four TVs? Is that the only reason I think that?

46:47Or does everyone else agree that four is the right amount?

46:50It's a good number. Four is the right amount.

46:53Because even if you have one TV, if you have the multi, you can watch them all together.

46:58NFL, four games in the late window. You want them.

47:01Why are we not doing this? You want the noon slate loaded.

47:04You want the noon slate to have like too many things to watch.

47:07So you have as good a chance as possible of the witching hour and then something that settles you down in the afternoon to go into Sunday.

47:15You should be able to watch all four late games on one television.

47:18I maintain that. There's no reason for them to be five.

47:21Even still, even if honestly, even if it was a noon game this week, Raiders Saints deserves like solo TV treatment.

47:27That's how I feel about it. We got it.

47:30I mean, the new the late window here is very compelling.

47:33We'll talk about a couple more of those games before we get out of here.

47:37One thing from Patriots Jags, Derek. What do you got for me?

47:40Yeah, I think there's been a lot of talk about how Drake may has handled some of these zone coverages.

47:45I think specifically some of the like top down or even some of the hot pressures and zones that like the Seelers

47:51were throwing at him this past week. The Jaguars in theory are a very good zone defense.

47:56Like they were obviously great at this last year.

47:58I think some of their spacing was phenomenal. The way that the corners were playing, the way that the safeties were seeing

48:04stuff and passing stuff off, I thought was great.

48:07What I will say in this matchup is that they feel more gettable underneath than they had been when they had Devin Lloyd last year.

48:14Last week, you saw them bring in Branson Combs off the bench to be there like third down cover back or whatever it was going to be.

48:21He got absolutely fried on an angle route because he like tries to get too high and too fast to the sideline.

48:27Seeing the guy out to the flat cuts back across his face.

48:30That's a free a free completion. And then there was another one early in the fourth quarter where they're running this four

48:36deep two under pressure and Combs is on the line of scrimmage.

48:40He's got to pop out to a hook zone.

48:42He's a little bit lost about where he's supposed to be and they throw the dig right behind him.

48:47And so I do think that this was a defense that like so much of their bread and butter was being able

48:53to move around some of those pieces and play top down zone and make the quarterback throw into those things.

48:59I wonder a little bit if the Patriots are going to be able to attack that in a way that I'm not

49:05sure they would have been able to against how well the Jags defense was playing last year.

49:09I'm looking at the Jags defensive grouping numbers from next gen right now.

49:13On the Jags defensive grouping numbers, when they're in some dime looks, five D linemen, two linebackers, three DBs, one wide receiver is how it's labeled.

49:20Oh, because Travis Hunter. Yeah, it's funny too. It's not very useful in terms of bucketing this stuff.

49:25When you watch on NFL Pro, it has the on the right hand side.

49:29It has everyone's like numbers and like positions and stuff.

49:32And it mostly does it right by like D line is first and then it goes to linebackers and then it goes to safeties.

49:38But because Travis Hunter is a wide receiver, he's always at the top.

49:42And so it always messes with how I look at how the roster is assigned.

49:46The reason I'm looking at this is isn't the Jags best answer for when they're in defined passing situations just to play dime?

49:52Against this team, I absolutely would. Because this is a team where last week, I think they had issues kind of big boying the Denver Broncos team.

49:59Like I think that their offensive line did play it better.

50:02But this is a Patriots front where I know they ran the ball decently well against the Steelers last week.

50:08I would still make them prove to me that you can move people off the ball and move my linebackers, move my edge players.

50:14Until you prove that to me, I'm going to try to see how much dime I can get away with.

50:20Can I ask you all an earnest question? I didn't spend a lot of time with the Pats Steelers game because I

50:26knew y'all were going to hit it on the hangover.

50:29And I was working on other games for the preview very earnestly.

50:32How much should I be shitting my pants about the Patriots offense?

50:35I'll let Derek answer that. I think to me, it depends a little bit about what AJ Brown is going to look like when he comes back.

50:43I think until we get him back, I am pretty worried that they don't have enough of a vertical element.

50:48And I think that they're going to be stuck playing this game where everything is them trying to run the ball in

50:54a way that, again, they were kind of good last week.

50:57But for the most part, this has not been a team that has been good at running the ball.

51:02And it's a lot of... And now no one went to.

51:05And now no one went to. You lose so much physicality without him in the lineup.

51:10And Greg Van Roten was not good when he had to come off the bench and play.

51:14And so I think that that is going to be a little bit of an issue.

51:19And I think the biggest thing that we've seen with Drake May so far, I still think that he's been good.

51:24Like, I think last week he was good. But I think part of why he doesn't feel great right now is that

51:30he's a little bit less, like, trigger happy. I think he's just not as confident throwing into some of those windows.

51:36And again, I think if defenses are not going to be as scared of what's going to happen over the top, they

51:42can kind of just squeeze on some of that stuff.

51:45And so I don't know if I'm worried about, like, long-term end of season.

51:49But I do think for the next month or so until A.J.

51:52Brown comes back, I'm a little bit concerned about how up and down it might look.

51:56The term we used in the hangover was that his shot selection last year was so good so often throughout the entire

52:02year where it just felt like he was seeing things so clearly.

52:06There was such command with how he was playing.

52:08And I just think that the shot selection over the first two weeks has looked so much less certain.

52:13Like, why he's making decisions, I think is just – I think it would be harder for him to articulate why he's

52:19doing some of the things he's doing and why he's making – choosing to make some of the throws that he's making.

52:25It all just seems a little bit shakier right now than you probably wanted it to coming into year two of this offense.

52:32Delightful. Last one here, speaking of that game, Bengals at Steelers.

52:35Steelers so far this season, two games in, obviously a lot of caveats.

52:38I mean, the best pass defense in the league.

52:41Having – playing Cooper Rush in week one will help those numbers.

52:44But they, for down-to-down, played very well against the Patriots last week as well.

52:48I have really enjoyed going back and re-watching a lot of the Steelers pressure stuff that they've been doing with Patrick Graham.

52:54Some of that is blitzing, and they blitzed about half their dropbacks last week against the Patriots.

52:58But it's not just that. They're doing a lot of interesting pressure stuff when they're not sending five.

53:03Pretty much – I went back – I think there were 13 dropbacks last week where they only sent four pass rushers.

53:09On a huge percentage of those, those pass rushers are an unconventional four where you don't know exactly where they're coming from.

53:15Some of that is simulateds where they're having Ramsey come on a simulated pressure on third down.

53:20They eat up the check down as part of that.

53:23It creates a one-on-one where the shipping tight end can't ship on Watt because he has to deal with Ramsey.

53:28So just some of the creative ways they're creating one-on-ones for the defensive front.

53:32There's another play where they're in a three-down look in dime.

53:35They drop both linebackers. It's drop eight. May has to eat it on that play.

53:39They're in Penny in one play where they have five defensive linemen and one linebacker on the field.

53:44They're dropping Highsmith on that. And so I just think that they're doing a really good job of creating confusion and hesitancy

53:50against the offensive lines that they're playing against. And while the Bengals' offense – the offensive line is better than it's been

53:56in a long time, we have seen Orlando Brown struggle over the first couple weeks.

54:00I think this will be a really good test with all of the different things that Patrick Graham has been throwing at teams over the first couple weeks.

54:08For an Bengals' offensive line that has been a little bit up and down in pass protection outside of Amarius Mims over

54:14the first couple weeks of the season. Yeah, he is – Mims has been sensational.

54:18I would say, yeah, Orlando Brown has probably not looked as good as we were hoping.

54:22I think we were just hoping he's like one of those left tackles that you just forget is there.

54:27And I think that there's been a little bit more remembering that he is there than you would want.

54:33I think, too, like, I think that there's still a lot of reason to be excited about Dylan Fairchild, especially in the run game.

54:39I think in the pass game he's still fairly gettable, either with the way that some teams are attacking him with pressures,

54:45or, like, this is a Steelers front that, like, Cam Hayward, Derek Harmon, these are guys that can, like, really get into

54:51your chest and give it to you. And so I wonder how that's going to go for them.

54:56But, yeah, I agree with you. Like, the Steelers' defense, it's crazy that they've made good on how excited we were about

55:02them without what we thought would be their best defensive back.

55:05Like, it's kind of remarkable. When you told me that, and I remembered that Joey Porter Jr.

55:10hasn't been part of this, it kind of blew my mind.

55:13And, like, that's incredibly impressive. I think it's—I want to pump the brakes just a tiny bit based on the competition level over the first two weeks.

55:20The Falcons will skew your stats for you. Yeah, I do think that there are—when they're out there with six DBs and

55:26Rayshawn Jenkins is in the deep part of the field, like, you can still get this team.

55:31I mean, there are a couple moments in that Patriots game where it happened.

55:35I wouldn't be surprised if that did happen for Cincinnati, given the wide receiver talent that we're talking about here.

55:40It's a little different when Cooper Rush is throwing the Drake London and the Patriots are playing without A.J.

55:45Brown when you're playing against Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, and T.

55:48Higgins. I really enjoyed Joe Burrow's quote this week where they were asking him about the pass protection.

55:53Like, obviously, Orlando Brown had a tough day at the office.

55:56And Joe gave a—it was a really cool quote where he just kind of reminded people about everything that goes into pass

56:02protection and, like, the quarterback's a big part of it.

56:05And he was like, there are things that we would never share that go into this that make it hard to evaluate what's really going on.

56:12I also just wanted to be like, you played the Texans?

56:15Do you, like, do we need to have all of this panic and explanation about Daniil Hunter and Will Anderson being hard to deal with?

56:22I just want to see Joe come up to the podium during his press availability like Al Davis with the overhead projector

56:28and just having, like, a picture of Will Anderson and Daniil Hunter and be like, yeah, do we understand why this is happening?

56:34You circle both of those guys and you just walk off.

56:37Unfortunately, like, the Steelers are a similar— Well, I don't want to compare anybody to Will and Daniil Hunter.

56:42Highsmith and T.J. Wadden ate her bigger if they can play.

56:45So, like, this is another week where that's going to be a problem.

56:49But if the Texans make you look like shit, I don't think that's worth panicking about.

56:53I think that's probably fine. Speaking of looking like shit, let's take our second quick break and get back and talk a little Sicko Street.

57:00Let's get into our Sicko Street matchup for the week.

57:03For anybody that's new, we like to pick one game on the schedule that maybe isn't all that appealing at first glance

57:09but has the potential for some grossness that might actually make it interesting.

57:12This one doesn't really fit that bill, but I do think the potential for carnage on one side of the ball based

57:18on how each unit has played over the first two weeks makes it fitting for this segment today.

57:23Baker Mayfield is in a state right now where he is just overstimulated.

57:27That's where we are. Baker just needs to, like, calm down and sit in a corner and take some deep breaths based

57:33on how he's played over the first couple weeks.

57:35I can't imagine a worse team to be playing against when that's been your issue than the Brian Flores Vikings.

57:41I sat up here last week on the preview episode and said, yes, Brian Flores blitzed 78% of the time in the

57:47season opener, but he won't do that two weeks in a row.

57:50And then he did exactly that. I think the blitz rate actually ticked up like 1% or 2% against the Bears.

57:56And so all bets are off, particularly with a quarterback who is dealing with pressure and just, yeah.

58:01What did you say in the production meeting? He's got the zoomies?

58:04He's got the zoomies. Yeah, I'm a little worried about this.

58:07He has the extreme zoomies. And this is a defense that kind of forces every quarterback into that mode.

58:12Like, and I think right now, too, I want to start with Baker.

58:16I think there were actually some, like, more good moments in that Browns game than that we're going to leave thinking based

58:22on the box score and them having lost and all that stuff.

58:25However, he is bottom three in EPA per drop back right now and success rate versus zone coverages.

58:30He's not seeing it very well right now. And I think what you're getting a lot from him right now is he's

58:36either just, like, taking these vertical shots immediately, he's checking down quickly, or he's running.

58:40He's not doing as much like I'm sifting through the zone, boom, boom, boom, and making throws.

58:45And then even the times that he's doing it, like, there were a couple drops week one where, like, KDOT and he

58:51ripped one into the zone and he drops it.

58:53Ted Hurst had a couple of drops this last week.

58:56And so even when Baker's right, some of the players are making him wrong on the other end.

59:01And then the other part of it that I think is important specifically for this game, Baker has the second highest scramble rate when pressured this year.

59:08Like, he is seeing it and immediately, like, pulling the ripcord and going.

59:12And last year, we kind of lauded him for that, right?

59:15We were like, cool, he's, like, making plays for a team when, you know, they were a little bit up and down.

59:21It doesn't feel like he's quite as athletic or quite as, like, right in his mind about when is the time to do that.

59:27And it's leading to more, I think, missed opportunities than you would want.

59:31opportunities to fill those zones in the coverage. Because, like, Brian Flores, he's leaving somebody open.

59:35By virtue of what he's doing, somebody is open.

59:38But you have to be able to stand down the barrel of the gun and make those throws.

59:43And I'm not fully confident that right now the way that Baker Mayfield is playing that we're going to get enough of that.

59:49Baker's first month of the season last year is, like, when a bad three-point shooter hits one early in the game.

59:55Oh, man. Yeah. Don't remind me. He's, like, well, he's, like, of course I can make every four-point comeback.

60:00You just keep putting them up? Yeah. You're mathematically right that somebody's open.

60:03But, like, the Vikings are so impressive. Like, there was a blitz in the Bears game where they mugged the line.

60:09They had, like, six guys on the line. And, like, you see guys drop and do simulators all the time.

60:15But it was, like, delayed. It was probably – it was either Cashman or Eric Wilson.

60:19Like, they waited, like, a beat and a half and dropped right into where the hot crossing route was.

60:24And just, like, they took the easy completion away.

60:27It was just dastardly. That's what – he did a phenomenal job last week of just erasing the middle of the field

60:33no matter how many guys they were sending at the quarterback.

60:36And to be able to do both of those things simultaneously is just so incredibly impressive against a Bears offense that wants

60:42to live in that one specific area. The tidy narrative for this game is, ooh, Dallas Turner leads the league in pressures

60:48and now he gets to go against Tristan Wirfs.

60:50In reality, I can't wait to see how Flores schemes it so that Dallas Turner is drawing Cade Otten.

60:55That's what's happened a lot over the first two weeks.

60:58That's what keeps happening with this Vikings defense. I'm just imagining Tristan Wirfs watching Dallas Turner walk Cade Otten back into the pocket.

61:04The other part of the Vikings defense that I just want to mention before we move on is that what Flores has

61:10done consistently and yet again in their ability to just muck up your run game.

61:14Like the amount of movement that you have to deal with stemming right before the snap, all of the slanting, just their

61:20ability to make a mess at the line of scrimmage with all of these guys who are UDF.

61:25I mean, I don't know Caleb Banks is a first-round pick, but the Levi Drake Rodriguez is and Jalen Redmond's and just

61:31like the Redmond's a really good player, but I just am so impressed in their consistent ability to get you into second

61:37and nine over and over and over again because of some of the stuff schematically they're doing to just f*** with you on the ground on early downs.

61:45And I think why the whole Flores things works is with other like regular kind of blitzing teams where they're a little

61:51bit higher, but not obviously what Flores is doing.

61:53The idea is like, well, if we can just beat them hot in the passing game and we can run maybe just

61:59like some simple run concepts that are going to block things up like duo where you can kind of just like wash

62:05everything down, wash down all this movement will be okay.

62:08We can get four and five yards at a time.

62:11That is like fine when the defense is blitzing like 35 to 40% of the time and it's not all your plays.

62:17Because the Vikings are making you do that 80% of the time right now.

62:21You can't live offense four yards at a time.

62:23And so the rate of what they're doing it, it really is like you got to hit like seven explosive plays on

62:29us or you're just not going to be able to move the ball down the field the way that you want.

62:35And I think the important distinction and this is not a new thought, but I think it's important just to bring it

62:41back as we talk more and more about the blitz rates and how Brian Flores wants to live when we had super

62:47blitz heavy teams in previous eras of the NFL.

62:49I think it's about like the wink Martindale Ravens.

62:52Those teams are like the face melting teams where that's what the blitzes feel like.

62:56That's not what this is. The amount of zone coverage they're playing behind it.

63:00There is a certain level of safety, not like the position, but not putting yourself in dangerous positions defensively with the way

63:06that they play like their ability to get the best of both worlds because of how the defense is structured is incredible.

63:12Like it truly is a one of one thing and he's leaned more into it this year than he ever has in years past.

63:18We said it coming into the year, took a screenshot of the Vikings defensive debt chart and was like if that guy

63:24can build a top five defense out of this, we should just construct a monument to him now.

63:29Well, it's happening like we two games into the year.

63:32We are on our way to that happening. It's incredibly impressive.

63:35Should probably at least mention that. It sounds like Kyler Murray is going to be back to by the way.

63:40That certainly helps makes the other side of the ball eminently more watchable.

63:44Holy shit. Boomer. The other game we wanted to hit very quickly on sicko street.

63:48The Titans are playing the Giants. And I think that there one specific reason that I really want to talk about this

63:54game when we were doing the team previews and we were talking about the Titans knows the Giants.

63:59Knows the Titans. We're talking about that. We're talking.

64:02You don't even remember. I can keep the two straight at this point.

64:05We were talking about the Titans and in my notes in our shared doc, I called them the Titans.

64:10And in real time, Derek was trying to correct it because it was annoying him.

64:14And I was like, no, you have to keep that because it's an accident that I think is very telling the Titans playing the Giants.

64:21It's going to take people two hours on each sideline to say hello to everyone they know on the other sideline.

64:27It's going to be an eternity over here. Brian Dable is going to be talking to everybody like all these guys have shared.

64:33And even like, I know they were players. Yes.

64:36Even Daniel Bellinger handshakes need to happen by the time this thing is going.

64:39How many Giants did they sign this offseason? Three, four, five.

64:42Yeah. Like you, it was quite a lot. Wondale, Schlottman, Bellinger, Flott.

64:46I forgot about getting somebody. Oh my God. Yeah.

64:48It's, it's, it's going to take them an eternity.

64:51I legit, we can move on after this, but I legitimately hate for Giants fans that they got that like breath of relevance.

64:57And now they're back on sicko street for the Brian Day Bowl, the Day Bowl.

65:01Shout out Beller for that pun. I really hope that the Jameis Winston version of this offense is more watchable than it was last week.

65:08His arm just seems like it might be shot.

65:10And that what's the point of having Jameis Winston if that's how he's going to throw the ball.

65:15And the idea that the Giants looked the way that they did in week one, and there was so much excitement about it.

65:22And now I think if I earnestly asked you, which offense do you have more faith in, or which offense do you want to watch more?

65:29The Cam Ward Titans after last week, or the Jameis Winston Giants after last week, what would you say?

65:34Titans? No question. That's horrible. Absolutely the Titans. Like if you're a, if you're a Giants fan, that's a fate worse than death.

65:40Like I can't even imagine landing in that place after what week one looks like.

65:44Like I would have kicked to the nuts, like just an awful, awful place to land.

65:49We haven't really talked about the Jackson dart injury.

65:51And like, because after the Monday night game, we thought it wasn't a big deal.

65:55The idea that you had that game in week one, and now that guy is out for the season.

66:00I cannot imagine a more painful pendulum swing. If you are an NFL fan, like we had to live that for two

66:06hours on Sunday as a Bears fan base. And then now, even though Case Keenum is going to drag the team to

66:12victory on Monday night, it's probably going to be short-lived.

66:15Having to stare down an entire season of that, if you're a Giants fan, is just a brutal, brutal outcome.

66:21Like I'm truly sorry to people who root for that team.

66:24We're making light of it, but I am truly sorry.

66:26I can't like in, in the range of outcomes for football fandom, losing your quarterback in the early going of the season

66:32is about as bad as it gets. I'm sticking with about as bad as it gets.

66:37We wanted to trot out a, probably a one-time segment here.

66:40Maybe we'll bring it back. Katie made a graphic for it.

66:43And so now we have to keep bringing it back.

66:45We're going to call this the danger zone. Teams that even two weeks into the season feel like they're entering the danger zone.

66:52I love that we had three different cultural moments in the production meeting about where danger zone shows up the most.

66:57I immediately think of Archer. Like that's the first thing I think about.

67:01You thought of Kenny Loggins. What did you think about?

67:04Was there one more? All right, but there's just, there's a buck.

67:07Yeah. Katie had the, uh, the, the air raid siren.

67:10We're having to do this because Katie made the air raid siren graphic, but there are teams that really are staring down

67:16the danger zone two weeks into this. I'm glad you committed to that.

67:19Chargers at, I mean, come on now. If you, if you have not watched season one of Archer, I highly recommend that you go watch it.

67:26I'm going to rub sand in your beady little eyes.

67:29I don't know if they grade it, but course, uh, Chargers are owned to, they are probably the most disappointing team in the league.

67:36We spent so much time talking about the Chargers and the midweek episode with me and Barnwell.

67:40I'm curious where you guys sit with the Owen two Chargers as they stare down a, what's the line?

67:45Seven point, seven, seven and a half point dogs coming into the season after being the, having the, being the biggest favorites in the league in week one.

67:53Like that is a snap back to reality sort of moment.

67:56It has been bet down to seven since I took my notes.

67:59Yeah, exactly. Good for you guys. I fell down a wormhole, which not for nothing.

68:03I've, I've had plenty of dumb opinions so far this season, but I just refused to buy the Chargers heading in and I didn't even know why.

68:11And I feel totally vindicated. It's so funny that you say that.

68:14I bought the Chargers going in and I didn't know why.

68:17I'm kind of, that's one of those where I just pencil them in, in the AFC West.

68:22And I think part of it was looking at the Superbowl odds before the season, they had the sixth best Superbowl highest.

68:28And last year the Patriots had an over under that made no sense to me.

68:32And I was like, that doesn't make any sense to me.

68:35Why would the Patriots win 12 games this year?

68:37And then they went to the goddamn Superbowl. And so I was looking at those Chargers Superbowl odds and I was like,

68:43maybe it all comes together for the Chargers. Like maybe the offense is just incredible from the start.

68:48The defense will be fine. And the best version of this team comes together.

68:52Like maybe that's just going to happen. And so without really thinking about it, I was like, yeah, the Chargers would be a playoff team.

68:59And so it's funny that you didn't believe in them for no reason.

69:02And I believed in them for no reason. And you were absolutely right.

69:06The funny thing about making prognostications is you have to like, just because we know things are going to be different from

69:12year to year, you have to talk yourself into something that sounds dumb being true.

69:16Yes. And if you're wrong about it, you're going to look really dumb.

69:20It's just, it just goes with the territory. I spent 45 minutes this week looking for precedent of a team that was

69:26favored by a touchdown one week being a seven point dog the next week without a major injury being part of the equation.

69:32Like if Justin Herbert was hurt, we would all know why the Chargers were seven point dogs.

69:37That's not the case. The like, clearly the bottom has dropped out on the Chargers as a team.

69:42But I can't remember a time where public perception and trust in a team so completely bottomed out as well to the

69:48point where a team with the sixth highest Super Bowl odds in the league is a seven point dog.

69:53And I know they're on the road. I don't care.

69:55Like typically if, if the Chargers had shown us anything in the first two weeks, they would be like a two and

70:01a half to three point dog in this game.

70:04And to be fair to be, to be seven points in the hole is just wild.

70:08And it speaks to how shitty it's looked for this team.

70:11I would say it's probably, it'd probably be more than two and a half or three.

70:16So because the bills looks like a wagon. That's again, being a touchdown dog after being, being favored in the way that

70:22they were over the first two weeks. I can't remember a bigger and quicker swing.

70:26Like you said, without a major injury, if the, if the Chargers lose this game, which I assume the Chargers will, and

70:32their, their next seven games, it's hilarious. Talking to Barnwell, I listed off their next six.

70:36Six games on the midweek show. And he goes, you realize the Ravens are the seventh game tough.

70:41So they had this thing, this insane six game stretch.

70:44I didn't see the next one down and it was the Ravens.

70:47That's what the Chargers are staring at. And not only are we going from six best Superbowl odds to potentially Oh, and

70:53three and being a touchdown underdog in week three, we're already in a place where Superbowl aspirations have turned to, are people going to lose their jobs soon?

71:01That's crazy, but I don't think it's unfounded. No, when the schedule is going to be that bad.

71:06And you bring up the Patriots from last year.

71:08Well, the Patriots, they played like the weakest schedule, one of the weakest schedules we'd ever seen.

71:13And we did know going in to this season that the Chargers schedule was going to be tough.

71:18I think the thinking was losing Minter is going to suck, but Mike McDaniel is going to be good.

71:23It's going to offset things enough. If they won 11 games last year, they can do something like that again.

71:28And I think that like, I don't think that that was necessarily unfounded.

71:32We just haven't really seen any of that. I think the two biggest areas of concern to me, like honestly, all the

71:38drops and stuff like that on the offense. That's like, yeah, it's not a very talented skill group.

71:43That part is not surprising to me. I am a little bit frustrated with how bad the operational stuff is.

71:48Joe Alt having like three false starts in that game.

71:51They have the third and one where they snap the ball late because they run out of clock and they snap it

71:57into the motion man on third and one. And then they obviously don't get that.

72:01They have to punt on the play was already kind of, or the game was already over kind of by then.

72:07But after the O'Marrion Hampton fumble, the first play after that, it's the first play of the drive.

72:12They come out and get an illegal formation penalty because nobody is on the ball on the right hand side of the formation.

72:18It's just like stuff like that is really, really frustrating to me.

72:21And then the other thing, this secondary, everyone except Derwin James and Tarheep still have a target on their back.

72:27They cannot play right now. Cam Hart looks terrible.

72:29Dante Jackson does not look good as last year.

72:32RJ Mickens, I think is really slow in the post.

72:34Like it's a really, really difficult spot for this secondary, which is funny because like, I think the front's kind of playing pretty well.

72:41It's just the secondary is not at all holding up their end of the bargain.

72:45Two things that makes you think about one. Offensively, and we have such short memories, the Bears and Jags looked bad in

72:51the first month of the season last year. They looked bad.

72:54We were making fun of the Jags because of all the operational stuff that wasn't going right.

72:59When you have complex offensive systems that you're putting in in a single year, this type of ramp up period can happen.

73:05There are two problems with that. We talked about this with the Cowboys defense.

73:09There is no, the unit on the other side cannot lift you up if you're the Chargers because of how the defense is playing right now.

73:16So the offensive struggles matter even more. And two, could you steal a win against a bad team over the first couple of weeks?

73:22Could you maybe tread some water in this six game stretch?

73:25It doesn't matter if the offense eventually sorts some of this shit out if you're 0-7 or you're 1-6.

73:30It doesn't matter. And that's the problem here. Even if a new offense, we probably should have a little bit of patience

73:36and a little bit of grace with this thing getting sorted out.

73:40So you're not afforded that based on being 0-2, the defense looking as bad as it is, and the schedule that you're

73:46about to face, and the fact that this is year three, and we should have a little bit of urgency about not being this sort of team.

73:53And you're beat to shit. Two of their three primary tight ends are out.

73:57Coyote Awaseka is going to miss this game. Trey Pipkins might miss this game.

74:01That's still up in the air. It's not like that's going to inspire anybody with a ton of confidence anyway.

74:06But you're still down to offensive guard five if those two guys don't play.

74:10I will say, if this goes sideways for the Bills, I'm fully prepared to blame the Nickel City uniforms that they're going to wear.

74:17I'm not even kidding. When I saw that they were wearing those this week, after the first two weeks, after the way

74:23the first two weeks had gone, somebody in the operational department should just be like, we have to cancel this.

74:28You're messing with the vibes. We have to cancel this.

74:31In a normal scenario, when we're having a normal season, you just let it ride.

74:35The way that they've looked over the first two weeks, I'm not even kidding.

74:39They should not wear those uniforms. If this go and the NFL is weird, like having said everything we just said, of

74:45course, the Chargers could pull the weirdest win of their lives out of the hat.

74:49It's going to be hilarious when they do. If they do, I'm blaming the Nickel City uniforms.

74:53Let's hit two more teams that are currently in the danger zone.

74:57Texans at Colts, both sitting at 0-2 as we head into week three.

75:00I, this one's a little bit clearer to me in terms of an 0-2 team and how worried I feel about them.

75:06I don't really feel that worried about either of these teams in the sense that I don't even, the Colts are just out of my mind.

75:13Like this is just over. And so I'm not concerned about it.

75:17And I'm not that concerned about the Texans because I think they win this week and the defense is still really, really, really good.

75:23Again, the tidy narrative for this game would be 2-0-2 teams.

75:26We know the track record. If you fall to 0-3, you can't let it happen.

75:30Who's going to get the win? Except if you were last year's Texans, which is very funny.

75:35Two of the seven teams that have ever bounced back from 0-3 are both Texans teams.

75:39They did it in 2018 too. So they really shouldn't be worried.

75:43And I think it was either Daniil Hunter or Will Anderson that was like, I'm not worried about that at all.

75:48Like we started 0-3 last year and I can feel that the energy in the building is right.

75:53Like I'm really not concerned. But I don't think that narrative applies to this game because even if like, even if the

75:59Colts win and the Texans are two and a half point road favorites, it could happen.

76:04Like they're at home. The Colts could win this game.

76:06Doesn't change my outlook for either team remotely. Like if the Texans are 0-3, I'll still believe that they can get to the playoffs.

76:13And if the Colts win this game, it won't make me feel any better about their long-term outlook.

76:18The only pushback I have to that is that I need the Texans offense to look considerably better in this game than

76:24it looked last week against Cincinnati in part because of how awful the Colts defense has been.

76:29If you can't show some signs of life and have a bounce back game against this version of the Colts defense, that

76:35would be cause for concern to me. That's that would truly be the danger zone.

76:39I think that's actually where I'm at. Oh, and three.

76:41Like, it sounds weird. Oh, and three doesn't bother me.

76:44But I think the reason it might is that if they lose, it would either be like some sort of shootout against

76:50this Colts team where like your offense looks the way it's supposed to against this defense.

76:54But for some reason, the Texans defense is maybe like in oh shit, they actually can't stop allowing explosive plays territory.

77:00And if they if you do that to the Colts, then I'm worried with with Josh Allen in week one and Jamar Chase being what he is like.

77:08Like, I can give you a little bit of a pass for that, especially with as good as they've been on a down to down basis.

77:15If you let the Colts do it, I'm going to start being concerned a little bit or on the flip side, disrespect

77:21if they lose on the other end in like a sloppy 17 to 13 game, whatever it is where the defense looks great.

77:27But it's like you couldn't move the ball against the Colts defense that can't defend the run and can't cover anybody out of the slot.

77:34That would concern me. That is a good point.

77:37I mean, it is a long season, though. So I stand by what I said.

77:41And having watched the Texans dig out of oh and three so recently would alleviate some of my concern.

77:46But the ways you lose this game, like why are we in a shootout with the Colts considering how good we think the Texans defense is?

77:53Or why can't you score points on a Colts team that is giving up a 10 plus yard gain on 30 percent of their snaps?

78:00That would be concern. Why can't you run the ball against the Colts defense that is giving up almost seven yards per rush?

78:06Like if the Texans can't move the ball and really more specifically run the ball against the Colts, that is concerning for

78:12the long term outlook, even if oh and three doesn't in their season.

78:16Let's get into some. Let's pull some people. Let's run some power.

78:19Let's run some counter. Let's push some people around.

78:21And if you can't do that, I do think that is worrying.

78:25And I don't mean to be flippant about the Colts season being over.

78:28I just think that the promise of the Colts being a relevant team over the long term is that the offense, the

78:34defense would be passable and the offense would be firmly in the top 10 without Alec Pierce.

78:39And with the state of the receiving core, I just don't think that's feasible for the Colts offense.

78:44And the defense is not passable. The defense is like a bottom falling out of it sort of unit.

78:49We had an argument in the preview about what the corners could do for the defense.

78:53A, having them hasn't helped to the degree that I hoped it could.

78:57And B, Charverius Ward is dealing with a groin injury now.

79:00And you said on the preview, like, well, what if the corners just aren't available?

79:04And I was like, well, I won't be excited.

79:06And it's week three. Are you excited? Not excited to watch the Colts defense at all.

79:11Let's talk about three things we want to know coming out of week three in the NFL.

79:15I'll kick us off. The Jets defense has shown some life over the first couple of weeks.

79:20I know they played in a rainstorm last week against the Packers, but they dismantled the Titans in week one.

79:25The Titans actually had a pulse against the Eagles in week two.

79:29I don't know how much of this is real.

79:31I have no idea. This is one of those throw up my hands, wait and see about how good the Jets defense actually is.

79:38But what I want to know coming out of week three is as the Detroit Lions look at the other sideline during

79:44this game, how much do they miss Aaron Glenn?

79:46Is the Jets defense, does it play well enough against the Lions?

79:50And is the Lions defense still struggling enough where we've talked so much about the Jets losing Ben Johnson or the Lions

79:56losing Ben Johnson, what that's meant for their offense is the fact that Aaron Glenn now the defense play caller again with

80:02the Jets with a requisite amount of talent. Is that the guy that the Lions actually find over the course of this

80:08season that they are really, really missing? And what does week three do to kind of push us to that place?

80:13This isn't a revelation because there hasn't been a good update about Kirby Joseph in months, but Dan Campbell's quote about Kirby Joseph today is heartbreaking, heartbreaking.

80:21And like, it's just so easy to think back to 2024 and what the Lions had and what they're missing right now.

80:27I'm not willing to wave the white flag until Brian Branch gets back.

80:30I do think he's a good enough player that that'll make a difference, but feeling pretty certain that Kirby Joseph isn't going

80:36to be part of this thing anytime soon. It just, it just hurts to think about what the Giants or excuse me,

80:42the Lions defense was supposed to be versus what it's been.

80:45There's a chance that the Bills are just a machine.

80:48Sure. And that, but you look at some of the, just the issues on the back end, the Lions were having just

80:54how all over the place it looked. That's my concern.

80:57It's not about talent gaps at this point. It's about just lapses.

81:00And does that continue? And if you're measuring yourself against a Jets defense that looks buttoned up for the first time after

81:06looking that way, all of last season, what does that do to you?

81:10If you're a Lions fan seeing Aaron Glenn on the other side, that's what I want to know coming out of week

81:16three, Derek, what do you want to know after week three in the NFL wraps up?

81:20I mean, so this is a little bit more like about how this game is specifically going to go, but the Cardinals

81:26are a team that like kind of fascinates me to this stage in the season.

81:30And I don't think they're going to win this game, but I think the way that they're set up, I kind of

81:36want to know if they can bully this 49ers defense around a little bit, because I do think that they've got a

81:42little bit of size and run through you in the run game.

81:45And then really at the pass catcher spots like this, this Niners secondary is good.

81:49Like they are good cover guys. Renardo Green, I think is good.

81:53Upton Stout is good. Lenore is really good. They are all pretty small.

81:56They are all like 190 and smaller. And then you've got now a Cardinals receiving core.

82:01That is Michael Wilson, who's like bordering on being built like a tight end.

82:04Like Kendrick Bourne is 205. Trey McBride, if you can get them on some of these corners one way or another, like

82:10I do think that they have a chance. Didn't even mention Marvin Harrison's name.

82:14We're listen, if we're talking about. Do we have time to do that right now?

82:18We're like at the end of the show. Yes, because listen, if we're doing size and bully issues.

82:23Marvin Harrison is the opposite of that. Like I do still think that there are some things he can do.

82:29But if my theory in this game is like they can push a team around a little bit, he's not helping you at all in that department.

82:36The Marvin Harrison discourse makes me sad. I just hope he gets traded.

82:40That's where I sit with it. I just hope he gets traded and gets a fresh start because what's happening right now is it is sad.

82:47That's the right word to use. Dave, what do you want to know coming out of week three in the NFL?

82:53You talked about it with Barnwell, so I'll make it short and sweet.

82:56But I do see you and I do hear you Panthers fans.

82:59And I am really excited to see Bryce Young this weekend.

83:02I think you could make the case even with the loss to the Bears.

83:06I think this is the best two week stretch of Bryce Young's entire career.

83:10And if it's not, it's very close. Like he had a couple of really nice games at the end of 2024 where

83:16he was on a similar year to this. But I mean, he's seventh in the league in EPA per drop back.

83:22He's fourth in yards per play. He's 10th in air yards per attempt.

83:25He's second in the league to Josh Allen in touchdowns scored, which is just a hilarious juxtaposition between Optimus Prime in the one spot.

83:32And then the smallest quarterback in the NFL at number two.

83:35And now I think, you know, maybe this Cleveland defense isn't the juggernaut.

83:38I thought it could be in the preseason, but I still think it's the best one they will have played.

83:44Like Atlanta is clearly outgunned and the Bears, we have expected them all along to struggle on defense.

83:49This will be the best defense that he's played.

83:51And more importantly, it's a defense that I think the Browns adjusted their sliders in week two and played a hell of

83:57a lot more man coverage and had a lot of success doing it.

84:01How's Bryce going to do against that? How is he just going to do against a defense with a pulse?

84:06And will we be talking like if he plays well against the Browns, that is like worth leading the show with on Sunday night, you know?

84:13Yeah. So he did not have a two week stretch during the 2024 season where it was anything like this.

84:19In week 12 and 13, he had positive EPA per drop back.

84:22Those are the that's the only two straight games he had in 2024 with positive EPA in 14.

84:27It was at 0.03. So barely positive. So he had he did not had two straight games with better than 0.1 EPA per drop back in 2024.

84:34It's been decidedly above that in both of those games to borrow our own phrasing from our own show.

84:40Bryce Young's first two weeks have had my curiosity.

84:42If he does it on Sunday, he will have my attention.

84:45The man thing is very good to point out.

84:4810.9 yards per play for the bank for the Panthers against zone coverage this year.

84:5210.9 3.6 against man. Yeah. If you give him space and windows, he will be able to find them.

84:57If you make him drive the ball, I think that's where maybe you can see some of the limitations.

85:02I think the Browns will play that way because that's how they want to play anyway.

85:06All right. That's all we've got for the week three preview.

85:09If you're listening to this, I mean, if you're listening to this in your podcast feed, our Thursday night recap of the

85:15Packers Falcons game, which Michael Penix mercifully is playing in, will be available to you.

85:19If you're watching this on YouTube, it will also be available.

85:22I have no idea why I framed it that way.

85:25If you are watching this on YouTube, especially if you're new to the channel, please like, please subscribe.

85:30Tons of YouTube-specific stuff coming your way over the course of this year.

85:34This Rocked this week was about Hezekiah Massis. If you want to dig into that, how it happened is about what this week, Derek?

85:40My how it happened is about Brian Flores and what his insane defense looks like currently.

85:45There we go. And I talked about the Bills offense and the new and improved Dalton Kincaid.

85:49That will be out hopefully today when you guys are watching this or a little bit later today.

85:54All of them will be out by the weekend.

85:57Encourage you to check that out. Encourage you to like and subscribe to the channel.

86:01That is all we've got for now. We'll be back here on Sunday nights.

86:05Talk to you guys soon. Thanks for tuning in.

86:07Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.

86:11If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating.

86:15We'll see you next time.

More episodes from The Athletic Football Show

Bears, Case Keenum cruise past Eagles in 27-7 victory

Sep 29, 2026

Week 3 Recap: Broncos stun Rams, Ravens upend Cowboys, Jaguars roll Patriots, and the 3-0 Raiders

Sep 28, 2026

Falcons run all over Packers for first win of season

Sep 25, 2026

Is this real?

Sep 24, 2026

Building the Beast: Trinidad Chambliss is climbing the boards

Sep 23, 2026

Week 2 Hangover: The Chiefs are back, the Seahawks look dominant, and the Steelers are sad

Sep 22, 2026