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The Athletic Football Show

NFL analysis from The Athletic

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Oct 8, 2026
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Thu, October 8, 2026
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The most surprising developments in the season's first month

The most surprising developments in the season's first month artwork
Oct 8, 202625 player insights
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Bijan RobinsonPositiveProjectionOct 8, 2026

Bijan Robinson is making the Falcons' offensive environment better rather than being a product of it; his ability to set things up, the pace he plays with, and his timing on combination blocks make those blocks more effective than they would be with another running back; he transcends the situation and is the most obvious example of a running back who improves everything around him, similar to Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley but in a more refined way.

Drake LondonPositiveRoleOct 8, 2026

Drake London is benefiting from the Falcons' offensive scheme under Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Reese; he is being used in the playbook to get Michael Penix Jr. clean pockets and opportunities to aggressively attack downfield.

Michael Penix Jr.PositiveRoleOct 8, 2026

Michael Penix Jr.'s return gives Kevin Stefanski the opportunity to do something he has always done well stylistically—maximizing a quarterback's skill set through the passing game; the Falcons' offense is now running air-raid-style concepts with 18-25 yard deep breaking routes across the middle, giving Penix Jr. max protection to aggressively attack downfield.

CeeDee LambPositiveMatchupOct 8, 2026

CeeDee Lamb benefited from the Texans' defensive communication breakdowns in their loss to the Cowboys; he got an easy 30-yard completion over the middle of the field when a safety failed to pick him up on a crosser route.

Justin HerbertNegativeProjectionOct 8, 2026

Herbert has not forgotten how to be a good quarterback who can make every throw—he can still throw absolute piss missiles when needed—but the Chargers offense is experiencing a breakdown in philosophy and execution on a week-to-week basis that is limiting his performance; the source attributes this to coaching and organizational issues rather than quarterback decline.

Justin HerbertNegativeProjectionOct 8, 2026

Justin Herbert's performance in Los Angeles has been disappointing; the source suggests the Chargers' offensive struggles are evenly attributable to Herbert's on-field decision-making, Mike McDaniel's play-calling, and Jim Harbaugh's overall direction, indicating systemic issues rather than a single fixable problem.

Matthew HibnerPositiveBreakoutOct 8, 2026

Matt Hibner, a young tight end brought into Chicago's offense under new play caller Declan Doyle, has exceeded expectations; the source initially had questions about Hibner's skill set but was impressed after watching the first quarter of the Colts game, suggesting Doyle's scheme effectively utilizes multiple tight ends in a way that maximizes Hibner's role.

Jalen HurtsNegativeRoleOct 8, 2026

Jalen Hurts is the focal point of Philadelphia's offense under new play caller Sean Mannion, who was hired to improve the run game and set up play-action passing; however, the source notes the Eagles' run game has not improved and the offense has reverted to Nick Sirianni's year-to-year approach rather than Mannion's intended ambitious passing scheme.

Bo NixNegativeProjectionOct 8, 2026

Bo Nix has struggled significantly in his third year in Denver's system; the source indicates Nix bears most culpability for the offense's poor performance, noting he is turning down open receivers and failing to execute throws that should be routine, forcing play caller Davis Webb into a more conservative approach and limiting the offense's ceiling despite elite supporting talent.

Davis WebbNegativeProjectionOct 8, 2026

Davis Webb's play-calling in Denver has been disappointing relative to expectations; the source critiques his inability to establish a functional run game and suggests he may be losing confidence in Bo Nix's ability to execute an ambitious passing game, leading to a more conservative, floor-focused offensive approach similar to the 2024 Panthers rather than one built around the quarterback's ceiling.

Pat BryantPositiveBreakoutOct 8, 2026

Pat Bryant is identified as a potential breakout piece in Denver's receiving corps, described as a receiver who can flex inside and out; however, the source notes the Broncos' overall offensive struggles suggest Bryant's upside may be constrained by quarterback and play-calling limitations despite his talent.

Courtland SuttonNegativeRoleOct 8, 2026

Cortland Sutton is described as a ball-winning wide receiver in Denver's offense, part of a collection of talented pass-catchers (including Jalen Waddell and Pat Bryant) that should theoretically support strong offensive production, yet the Broncos have struggled to execute downfield passing despite these weapons.

Bryce YoungPositiveRoleOct 8, 2026

Under new play caller Brad Idzik, Bryce Young has performed significantly better than expected; the source credits Idzik's scheme—featuring RPOs, strategic personnel usage, and a cohesive blend of heavy and spread formations—with maximizing Young's strengths and building an offense that believes in his ceiling rather than merely protecting him, contrasting sharply with the previous year's more conservative approach.

Caleb WilliamsPositiveProjectionOct 8, 2026

The only time the Bears saw Caleb Williams not against Brian Flores in a rainstorm this season, the team scored 59 points; the source suggests this demonstrates significant offensive ceiling potential when Williams returns to action, framing his impact as transformative for the Bears' overall competitive outlook.

Caleb WilliamsPositiveProjectionOct 8, 2026

Caleb Williams is expected to return to the Bears, and the source suggests that when he does, the Bears' offensive performance will improve significantly; the team is already doing well offensively, and with Williams back, the Bears could become a more serious contender.

Travis HunterPositiveRoleOct 8, 2026

Travis Hunter was traded to the Jaguars fresh off a bottoming out and is performing as an all-pro caliber corner; he represents a key defensive piece that the Jaguars acquired to strengthen their defense. The source notes the team is exploring different combinations with him, Jarrion Jones, and Montero Brown to determine optimal deployment, and he functions almost like a rookie in terms of being a new piece to the team's defensive puzzle.

Parker WashingtonPositiveRoleOct 8, 2026

Parker Washington is the ultimate manifestation of the work the Jaguars have done to build their offense; he represents how well the scheme, play of Trevor Lawrence, and the rhythm they're in all work together. The source also notes the Jaguars are extremely precise at designing plays to get Washington exactly 18 to 20 yards across the middle of the field when they need it.

Trevor LawrenceNegativeInjuryOct 8, 2026

Trevor Lawrence has seen more contact over the last couple of weeks compared to the end of last season; the source worries about what this will look like over the course of the season if he keeps hitting the ground as often as observed recently, though this concern is tempered by the overall strong performance of the Jaguars offense.

Trevor LawrencePositiveProjectionOct 8, 2026

Trevor Lawrence has shown a rhythm in his game that never existed for him in the pros over the last three months; he's displaying confidence, putting his back foot in the ground, and driving the ball into closing passing windows. The source notes he came out of 2024 ready to move on but has turned right back around and is now performing at an elite level within the Jaguars' scheme.

Lamar JacksonPositiveProjectionOct 8, 2026

Lamar Jackson is playing at an elite level early in the season; the source emphasizes that when he plays at this level, the Ravens are capable of pretty much anything, and the team must do everything possible to maximize these seasons because in 2024 when he played at this level, the defense wasn't very good. Now with improved defensive confidence and optimism, the Ravens should capture this season while Lamar is performing at his peak.

Lamar JacksonNegativeInjuryOct 8, 2026

Suffered an ankle sprain; expected to miss a couple of weeks, forcing Baltimore to play backup quarterback; this injury context motivated the Ravens' aggressive trade for Cam Juergens to stabilize the offensive line during his absence.

A.J. BrownNegativeProjectionOct 8, 2026

The source references A.J. Brown's trade request from last year as a signal that the Eagles' front office is aware the expensive offensive days must end; the franchise cannot sustain keeping all premium offensive players in perpetuity and must pivot toward roster reconstruction.

Jalen HurtsNegativeProjectionOct 8, 2026

The source raises the question of whether Jalen Hurts will receive a second contract extension and remain the Eagles' long-term quarterback answer; the Cam Juergens trade and broader offensive reconstruction may signal an implied evaluation of Hurts' future with the franchise, suggesting the Eagles could be considering alternatives at the quarterback position.

Trevor LawrenceNegativeProjectionOct 8, 2026

The source references a cautionary example from a month into last season when analysts questioned whether Trevor Lawrence's struggles defined his ceiling, but he subsequently improved significantly; used as a reminder that early-season performance should not drive sweeping conclusions about player capability.

Bryce YoungPositiveProjectionOct 8, 2026

Had a monster day against the Falcons in week two; the source uses this performance as an example of how context shifts as more information emerges about opposing defenses, suggesting Young's strong outing was even more impressive than initially recognized given the Falcons defense's subsequent poor performance.

Bryce YoungPositiveRoleOct 7, 2026

Bryce Young, a Notre Dame defensive tackle and son of Hall of Famer Bryant Young, is part of a strong Irish defensive line alongside Bubakar Traore. The source notes he can play and will be tested in an upcoming matchup against Stanford's elite left tackle Nicky Prongos.

Nick MullensNegativeRoleOct 6, 2026

Mullens is being used as a missile/battering ram in the Ravens' offense in year two, similar to how Frankie Lufu was deployed. Brad Idzik noted that while this usage pattern may be a detriment to his long-term development as a quarterback, he is comfortable with the Ravens using Mullens however they need to in order to build the best defense possible in year two.

Malik NabersPositiveRoleOct 6, 2026

Nabers was identified as one of the two best players on the field in the Giants' 36-24 win over Arizona; he conjured plays out of thin air for the offense multiple times, including a highlight-reel corner route catch where he was not even really open but made an insane twirly catch that evoked Odell Beckham comparisons. Brad Idzik emphasized this as exactly what the Giants need from their top-five draft pick—flashes of special playmaking ability when healthy.

Emanuel WilsonNegativeRoleOct 6, 2026

Wilson is part of the running back rotation with George Helani while Jadarian Price is injured; the Seahawks are trying to get by at the position without Price's explosive run capability.

George HolaniNegativeRoleOct 6, 2026

Helani is part of the running back rotation with Emmanuel Wilson while Jadarian Price is injured; the Seahawks are trying to get by at the position without Price's explosive run capability.

Jadarian PriceNegativeInjuryOct 6, 2026

Price is hurt and will not play, forcing the Seahawks to work with a combination of George Helani and Emmanuel Wilson at running back; the team is missing the explosive run potential Price provides.

Jalen McMillanNegativeUsageOct 6, 2026

McMillan was used in creative ways by the Seahawks offense, including a reverse play that resulted in a touchdown, as the team tried to generate explosive plays without injured running back Jadarian Price.

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaPositiveUsageOct 6, 2026

Brad Idzik highlights a key third-and-16 conversion in the second quarter (Seahawks up 7-3) where Darnold hit JSN in cover two for a crucial first down. Idzik praises the play design: "the only guy we can get these 16 yards is JSN," with JSN running a deep skinny post into the isolated side while Cooper Cup pinned down the linebacker and pole player on the trip side, creating throwing lanes. This conversion flipped the game momentum; the Seahawks scored on the next possession and went on to win decisively.

Justin HerbertNegativeProjectionOct 6, 2026

Brad Idzik characterizes the Chargers offense as an "absolute disaster" where "every single idea, fanciful idea that people had about how good this could be" and "the idea of pairing Justin Herbert with Mike McDaniel" and "the excitement around this group" has proven unwarranted. "Every single thing that could have gone wrong about this thing has gone wrong." The offense remains a full-blown failure despite the defense finally performing adequately in Week 4.

Omarion HamptonNegativeRoleOct 6, 2026

Marion Hampton had a 15-yard run on a counter play in Week 4 against the Seahawks, showing some promise in the run game, but Brad Idzik noted the broader context that "every single fanciful idea that people had about how good this could be" for the Chargers offense has not materialized. Hampton was expected to take a step forward, but those expectations have not been met as the offense has been "an absolute disaster."

Quentin JohnstonNegativeRoleOct 6, 2026

Quentin Johnson ran a reverse that went for negative four yards in Week 4 against the Seahawks, part of a frustrating sequence of play-calling decisions. Brad Idzik noted Johnson hasn't taken a step from what was expected to be a promising 2025 season, and questioned the offensive design given the Chargers lack horizontal stretch and threat in the offense.

Keaton MitchellNegativeUsageOct 6, 2026

Keaton Mitchell had drops in Week 4 against the Seahawks as part of the Chargers' offensive execution problems. Brad Idzik cited these as part of a broader pattern of execution errors and play-calling issues that made the Chargers offense "unwatchable" for about 95% of the game.

Justin HerbertNegativeProjectionOct 6, 2026

Justin Herbert threw two of the worst interceptions of his NFL career in Week 4 against the Seahawks, both on inexplicable decisions to throw directly at linebackers who were never going to be anywhere else. Brad Idzik called them "inexcusable" and noted Herbert "deserves plenty of culpability in the way that this thing has looked over the first month of the season," adding these were similar to his dumbest interception from the prior week where he threw at a post safety.

Jameson WilliamsNegativeUsageOct 6, 2026

Jameson Williams had multiple execution errors in Week 4 against the Panthers, including gator-arming a go ball down the right sideline and failing to secure a dig route after getting two hands on it following pressure. Brad Idzik noted these were part of a broader pattern of execution mistakes when the Lions were forced to operate in an uncharacteristic shotgun-heavy scheme.