0:00Welcome to The Athletic Football Show brought to you by the U.S.
0:03Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card. I'm Robert Mays. Typically on these Thursday midweek shows, we like to have an outside guest on,
0:10but the conversation that we're having today, I couldn't have it with anybody that is not Derrik Klassen.
0:15We're going to talk about Trevor Lawrence today, but we're going to talk about Trevor Lawrence and the broader scope of the NFL.
0:22We're going to talk about what Trevor Lawrence's rise this year and even going back into the second half of last year
0:28can teach us about quarterbacks, can teach us about how sensitive they are to their surroundings, can teach us about why we
0:34should be patient with some of these guys, can teach us why it's worth hanging on to certain priors you might have
0:40even if in the moment it sounds crazy to do so.
0:44There is a lot that I think Trevor points to in how we talk about, think about and consider quarterbacks in the NFL in 2026.
0:51And so that's what me and Derek did today.
0:53We used Trevor to have a very wide ranging discussion about the quarterback position in the modern NFL.
0:59Let's get to that conversation right now. After we had Bill Barnwell on for the midweek show last week, I declared myself retired from quarterback discourse for 2026.
1:07And then I willingly decided we were going to have more of it today because I do think there's a really compelling
1:13conversation to be had about what we've seen from some guys at the position this year.
1:17And more importantly, what how we can use that as a jumping off point to talk about the position more broadly.
1:24And so I'm excited to dig into this and I'm specifically excited to dig into this with you because I think you're
1:30a notable person to be on the other end of this conversation for a few different reasons.
1:35There's no running from quarterback discourse. You've done this long enough that there's no there's no getting away from it, even if you want to.
1:42Like you said, something in the back of your mind creeps up and you're like, but what if I did talk about the quarterbacks?
1:49And so, yeah, I think when you pitched this to me, I was really excited about it.
1:54And so I think this is going to be a really good one.
1:57I did my video about this, the replay brew social videos that we're doing.
2:01If you guys have not seen them, they're on our Instagram account.
2:05They're on our Twitter account. Scott, our social media producer, meets me for coffee in the mornings.
2:10And then we just walk back to the studio and I just kind of spout off about whatever's on my mind that week.
2:16And it's about a three minute video. But when I finished that three minute video, I was like, there's so many more
2:23things we could talk about with this subject specifically.
2:25And so I just decided, whatever, it's my show.
2:28We're doing a full podcast about it because I think there's so much other stuff that we can hit that you just
2:34don't have time to explore in a short video like that.
2:37And the crux of it is this. I think that Trevor Lawrence is the perfect entry point into this conversation and the conversation being we know more.
2:45We know less about quarterbacks than we like to admit.
2:48And quarterbacks are more sensitive to their surroundings than we like to admit.
2:52Trevor Lawrence looks like a MVP candidate this year.
2:54Trevor Lawrence is playing at an incredible clip. He looks so good, so confident.
2:58We've hit on that in a bunch of different shows.
3:01I want to read to you a couple quotes about Trevor Lawrence from NFL coaches and executives from the 2025 Mike Sando quarterback tears.
3:08I always thought Lawrence was a unique talent from a body type perspective.
3:12So athletic for a guy that tall. And the way he played at Clemson was outstanding, another head coach said.
3:17But when I watched him this year, 2024, the instinct wasn't as high there.
3:21He looked hesitant. He had some ugly tape. Here's another one from a former GM.
3:26He hasn't proved that he can take the team up a level or make the team play better than they are.
3:32I definitely think Liam Cohen can help him there if he is able to be helped.
3:36This idea of we see some flashes from a really talented player, but there's just something missing.
3:41It comes up so often when we have these big, talented guys that fall short in terms of their own production or
3:48team success for one reason or another. These are the same quotes that you hear about Justin Herbert right now.
3:53These are some of the same quotes. I want to go back and read this one because I think this one is also particularly telling.
4:00This is from the 2015 quarterback tears. No doubt he's a tier two and I love him, but something is missing.
4:07Stafford could be like Aaron Rodgers if he had the burning passion and if he had Mike McCarthy from day one because
4:13he's talented like that and quick with the ball.
4:15But you look at the look on Stafford's face before the game and then you look at the look on Rodgers face
4:22or Big Ben's or Lux or especially Drew Breeses.
4:24Holy shit. You look at Matthew Stafford's eyes and it's like a gym class.
4:28It's like I hope we win. I think we're pretty good as opposed to I'm going to rip your throat out.
4:34That is the most like you can ascribe whatever you want to a quarterback when they're winning or when they're losing doing
4:41the like not like Rodgers didn't have passion at the time or whatever that Mike McCarthy wasn't good at the time.
4:47But like that is really funny looking at where all of those pieces and players are now.
4:52Like it's just it's kind of ridiculous. And I read these because I think it's a good place to start when it
4:58comes to how we used to talk about certain quarterbacks that we no longer talk about that way in that quarterback tears
5:04article that I quoted from about Trevor Lawrence, which came out last summer.
5:08Okay, last July July 2025 in that exercise Trevor Lawrence was quarterback 18 in that ranking.
5:13He was behind Tua at quarterback 17 Baker was at quarterback 11.
5:16Insane. And I don't I'm not even saying this to shit on the people that are doing that exercise and the people that Mike is talking to.
5:24I just think we have really short memories when it comes to how much this stuff vacillates for most of the quarterbacks in the NFL.
5:31I think there are guys who are immune from this to a degree.
5:35If you look at the numbers over the last five to seven years, Mahomes and Josh Allen, even if the circumstances have never really been.
5:42Bad for them. They've been different. The circumstances have changed over a six year period, whether those are structural within the offense
5:48like they are for Josh Allen, whether it's the talent they're surrounded with like it is with Patrick Mahomes.
5:54And every single year, those guys are at like point 08 point one O EPA per drop back or better really high
6:00success rates like they are still good no matter what.
6:03I would kind of include Joe Burrow in this conversation, which is a slightly different hallway that we can go down if we want to.
6:10But those three guys kind of sit alone. Even Lamar, Lamar's numbers year after year, he has taken some dips.
6:16But so you look at Mahomes, Allen and kind of Burrow after that, everyone else.
6:20Is via is like liable to have these sort of vacillations from year to year based on the circumstances we're playing with or they're playing in.
6:27And I think there's just so much to consider there with how we talk about guys, how certainly we talk about guys,
6:34how much grace we give guys, all of that.
6:36But as I kind of lay out the broad strokes of what I want to dig into here and use Trevor as a jumping off point.
6:44What about this specifically do you find most interesting?
6:46I actually think that there are a couple of different ways that we can go about it.
6:51I do think one of them, and I think this actually we can stick on Trevor.
6:56I think this is maybe a particular point that is less like general, but more specific to a handful of guys.
7:02I do think with some guys like Trevor Lawrence, and I think that this was absolutely true of Caleb.
7:07There is like a weird people wanting to be anti-hype of when we have these unbelievable talents.
7:12The guys who are first overall picks have been the first overall pick for years coming into it.
7:17And actually, even young Stafford actually falls into this.
7:20People knew he was going to be the first round pick for a long time because of time.
7:25Oh my God, since he was like 17. Yes, like it was a prophecy.
7:29And for all those guys where it feels like it was just always going to be from day one.
7:35Andrew Luck is a little bit of this. There's kind of this like until they show that they are truly the best in the league.
7:42There's always this like the expectations for them are just they get warped.
7:45And like I think that was absolutely true of Trevor Lawrence.
7:49It's obviously Caleb as a rookie. And I think that that always extends especially to their rookie seasons where if these guys
7:55are not immediately the savior, it's like, oh, well, then what was the point?
7:59This guy doesn't have it. It's never going to come along.
8:02And that's always exacerbated by if anybody else in the class looks good.
8:06Obviously, for Caleb Williams, like Jaden Daniels looks good that year.
8:09For Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones looks good that year.
8:12But and I think what you said actually about the quote about Trevor Lawrence, where the GM or coach or whoever it
8:18was, was like, man, he played this way at Clemson, yada, yada, yada.
8:22We we allow ourselves to forget the talent of some of these players because the circumstances wear down on them for a year or two.
8:29And it's like, oh, they've got a couple of bad habits now.
8:32And we forget that what they were in college.
8:35You know, sometimes that can be weird circumstances. You're playing with super talented people.
8:39But that talent is there. Like those guys are the first overall pick for a reason or top five picks or whatever for a reason.
8:46And you can get to places where offensive line gets better.
8:49They find a coach that they love. They go through some of the ups and downs and learning different styles, which that
8:55I want to talk about, too, like quarterbacks having to learn different styles of winning.
9:00It finally comes along and you're like, oh, yeah, this guy was always this talented and was just not put in very
9:06good circumstances for the first, you know, in Trevor Lawrence's case, the first four years of his career, five years.
9:12The circumstances point we can dig into Trevor specifically in a second.
9:15I think I want to sit with that before we can dig into the rest of the conversation.
9:20I think you can draw some lines, even if those lines move a little bit from year to year between the top,
9:27top guys and the rest of them. If you use quarterback tears as an example.
9:31For the most part, there are four to five guys in tier one every single year.
9:36Mahomes, Allen, Burrow are pretty much always in there.
9:38And then you have a couple of guys that sneak in and out for whatever reason.
9:43Right. We just talked about Lamar. Stafford's been in there a little bit.
9:47Rogers at the end of his career after that.
9:49So that tier is anywhere from three to five guys in a given year.
9:53Tier two is usually from like quarterback six to quarterback 15.
9:56And that feels right. Right. And so I think that feels correct.
10:00What I want to say to that, and actually this is maybe like a really dumb guy take, but all of those,
10:06the elite quarterbacks that you just listed, Joe Burrows, Lamar Jackson's, the guys at the tippy top.
10:11Matthew Stafford, I think can fall into this category.
10:14A lot of the times the quarterbacks where we are putting them on a pedestal as truly elite and not that they
10:20aren't sensitive to their surroundings on some level. But those guys always inarguably feel like the best or second best player on their offense.
10:27Like Joe Burrow, obviously Jamar Chase is on that on that offense as well.
10:31But then I think you get into the tier two guys where it's like they are clearly good and helping the offense,
10:37but there are just a lot of other really good pieces around them.
10:41I think Jared Goff is this Dak Prescott, I think to a degree is this like, I think in my opinion, like
10:47Tyler Smith is probably the best player on that offense.
10:50Dak, CD and Pickens are all like kind of in the same category.
10:54But again, that doesn't make it clear that Dak Prescott is like that level of guy.
10:58And so I think like that actually does go to your point of like, that's why six to 15 can kind of
11:05feel like it vacillates because depending on who those other pieces are, that would normally be like in the same tier as
11:11the quarterback or above them or slightly below them.
11:14That's why stuff feels like it changes all the time for those guys.
11:17And I think when you see all of the movement in that group from six to let's even call it like 18,
11:24if you're going to throw Trevor Lawrence in there as quarterback 18 from last year's version of this exercise.
11:29I think those are that there is so much movement among that group and there is so much uncertainty and confusion and
11:35almost dissonance when we talk about and think about those quarterbacks because that group is just so much more sensitive to everything that's happening around them.
11:43So in each given year, based on the coaching injuries, the support system in terms of the personnel around them, you can
11:49go from being quarterback 18 to quarterback 8 back down to quarterback 15.
11:53And it seems completely crazy and it seems like we don't really know anything.
11:57But that's partially because we don't. But it's also just because I think this group of quarterbacks is just particularly volatile based on what's going on around them.
12:05And I think part of that, I was trying to think about this as to why it seems like guys are more
12:11sensitive to their surroundings than they might have been in previous eras of the NFL.
12:15Because it does kind of feel that way, right?
12:18Like based on who your coach is, it can just swing so wildly.
12:22Baker Mayfield on the other side of the Trevor Lawrence thing is a perfect example of this.
12:27Like when Baker Mayfield had Liam Cohen, he was quarterback 11.
12:30What does Baker Mayfield look like now? It's not quarterback 11.
12:33It might be double that. You might have said double that number.
12:36And I think part of the reason for that is that the offenses right now, because of how hard it is to
12:43play against modern defenses, have to do so much of the heavy lifting for pretty much every single quarterback that's not one of those guys.
12:50That if there are changes in the quality of that support system, you're going to notice it.
12:55Like you're just going to see the huge swings because the support system is so important for pretty much every single quarterback.
13:01And honestly, it's not even pretty much every single quarterback anymore.
13:04Think about what the Chiefs are doing right now.
13:07The Chiefs came into this season and acknowledged in what their plans have looked like that even we with Patrick Mahomes cannot
13:13play the way we used to, which was the most quarterback.
13:16The Chiefs and the Bengals played the most quarterback centric offenses in football.
13:20And the Chiefs came to a conclusion after last season saying, even with Patrick Mahomes, we can no longer play this way.
13:26So if the Chiefs are thinking that way, how important is the infrastructure and support system to all of the other quarterbacks
13:33in the NFL that aren't Patrick Mahomes? I would say incredibly important.
13:36It's incredibly important. I'm glad you bring up the defenses thing.
13:39I do think just with some of the too high stuff and how good teams have gotten with blitzes and some of
13:46their simulated pressures and creepers and all that stuff.
13:48I do just think that quarterback in a lot of ways feels harder to play now than it did as recently as like five years ago.
13:56And I think you have that coupled with like, there are a lot of starters in the league and a lot of
14:02these guys that we're talking about where it feels like there's some vacillations to year to year that are like under 30 years old.
14:09Where it's like, you don't, I don't think you fully crystallize mentally a lot of the time until you hit around 30.
14:15And a lot of these guys where it feels like you can have these ups and downs or they are sensitive to
14:21stuff like a Trevor Lawrence, who I think is like 27 years old.
14:25Yeah, like those guys are probably going to be a little bit more sensitive to that.
14:30Guys like Drake May, Caleb Williams, these younger players, they're going to be more sensitive to that because I do think another
14:36thing that I wanted to talk about is that save for rare cases.
14:40And it's actually funny you bring up my homes because even he has had to do it safe for rare cases.
14:46Guys need to go through multiple iterations of themselves before they feel like immovable and unstoppable.
14:50Like most of these guys have to do that.
14:53Stafford early in his career was a chuck it sort of quarterback.
14:56And then he has the Jim Bob Cruder era where it's like, it's all check downs and they put a Ferrari in the garage.
15:03It was the worst. I hated it. I hated it so much.
15:07Even as someone who was like, I was not like super high on Stafford on the time.
15:12I'm not going to lie about that. But even when I was like, the style of quarterback he is just didn't make sense that they were doing that.
15:20But I do think like in the long term, it probably served him in some way learning how to live that way.
15:26And then he gets the Daryl Bevel and Sean McVay years where it's a little bit more under center.
15:31It's like kind of controlled. It's some blend of the two.
15:35Lamar Jackson obviously comes onto the scene and he's incredible as an MVP, but that was so specific.
15:40And then he really needs to get into the Todd Monken offense and become something new where it's like, okay, now he
15:46does feel a little bit less sensitive to this stuff.
15:49He's unstoppable. Jared Goff being kind of Sean McVay's puppet early on in Los Angeles.
15:53And then he gets to Detroit and it's like, if he doesn't take more ownership of the offense, he's not going to be a good enough quarterback.
16:01And so he has to go through that. The last one I'll bring up, Josh Allen being a, when he got into
16:07the league, he was just kind of a wild horse.
16:10And then his second year, he really did learn to throw the one to 10 yard area pretty well.
16:16But it was still for that year. And then the handful of years after that was Stefan Diggs, high volume passing offense.
16:22We're dropping back. We're throwing it all over the yard.
16:25And then the last two or three years, it's been like, we need to slow down the heartbeat of the offense.
16:31We're going to run the ball. We're going to throw it down the field.
16:35We're going to protect things. And now I think he's at the point where he can kind of weaponize both of those different worlds of quarterbacking.
16:42And again, all of these guys really didn't get to that point until they were 28, 29, 30, 31 years old.
16:48And so I think like going through multiple iterations, learning how to beat everything.
16:52That's why like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady year to year when they were in their 30s were always able to just
16:59like do whatever they needed to do to win a game.
17:02Yeah. And that's not everyone has till they're 30.
17:04That's a long time to wait. And it kind of gets into something I want to talk about with how long should
17:11we wait and when do we know? Because I do think there's something to point out there.
17:16But you talking about that, I think the Josh Allen thing is, it's worth circling back to.
17:21Even Josh Allen, there are vacillations in the type of Josh Allen we get.
17:25The quality was always at a certain level because of how special of a player Josh Allen was.
17:30Essentially from year three to right now, there's been the quality has remained at a certain level.
17:35But it's felt more volatile. He's turned the ball over more.
17:38His individual play has swung a little bit based on what he was being asked to do within the offense.
17:43So if Josh Allen's play is going to swing a little bit based on what he's asking to do, what do you
17:50think is going to happen with quarterbacks who are one or two steps down from Josh Allen, which can still allow you
17:56to be a really, really good quarterback in the NFL?
17:59It's going to swing even more, even if you're the seventh best quarterback in the league.
18:04It's going to swing all the time. And again, that's why guys like Dak Prescott and Jared Goff and all these guys
18:10can be and are very good quarterbacks, but it is dependent on things kind of breaking the right way for you or you land in a perfect situation.
18:18I mean, like the fact that I think a perfect example for this Matt Ryan having what is one of the best
18:24quarterback seasons ever, basically where for the majority of his career up to that was a very good quarterback, but he was
18:31in that like seven to 10 range, like always like kind of flirting with Pro Bowls.
18:35Pretty good. Had some really high highs, but was never felt like dominant.
18:39And then you get two years in the Shanahan system, you have a Hall of Fame wide receiver and a couple of
18:45other like really nice skill pieces to like put around that.
18:48And all of a sudden, like everything clicks into place where they're getting him to do some stuff that he wasn't comfortable
18:55with before with all the boot stuff. And marrying that with some downfield passing element that like not every Shanahan style of quarterback has always had.
19:02And so you just get this beautiful marriage of that, which this is kind of why I talked about Trevor Lawrence and
19:08their offense feeling like the 2016 Falcons potentially is like they are marrying a lot of those things where you're getting the
19:15value of the Liam Cohen under center. Can you just throw this dig route sort of offense?
19:20We're going to scheme some stuff open on top of like you can four and five man concept just like drop back and Trevor will find people.
19:27He will throw outbreakers that other quarterbacks can't get.
19:30And you get this blend of like finding the stuff that he was always good at and then giving him six freebies
19:36a game that just like unlocks everything and takes the load off of the quarterback a little bit.
19:41I'm kind of fast forwarding to this part of the conversation.
19:45I thought we might wrap up here, but you mentioning Matt Ryan, I think this is as good a place of any to do it.
19:52Before we dig into what I want to talk about, though, let's take our first quick break.
19:57All right. So the financial part of this is interesting to me because I think that it warrants a conversation, right?
20:03Because if we can acknowledge that there is a gap between the top three fourish guys and the rest of the quarterbacks
20:09in terms of resilience, how steadfast they are, independent of the circumstances and just overall quality, there's not a huge gap in how they're paid.
20:16Okay. And so most of those guys are 55 million.
20:19They're bumping up against each other. Mahomes obviously got the most recent new deal, but they're still mostly clustered together.
20:25And this is where I this is kind of where I've landed with this thought.
20:29There are currently 13 NFL quarterbacks that are making 50 million dollars a year.
20:33When you're asking as part of this process, if you're having to pay Trevor Lawrence, you're having to pay Jordan Love, and
20:39you're not sure that there's been some inconsistency. It's like, man, is this guy worth pay?
20:44I think the question that you have to ask yourself and the answer that matters most, could this player in the right
20:50circumstances be the MVP of the league? Mm-hmm. Or at least like put themselves in like position where you have that season where like Dak Prescott in 2023.
20:58I think actually like that's a perfect example too where like he didn't win it, but you've seen him a player like
21:05that where quarterback 7 to 12, however you want to put it, can reach those highs in the right scenarios.
21:10I mean, shit, this year the offense might be good enough where he can put up those sorts of numbers.
21:16And so like he in a lot of ways like feels like the cutoff in some ways like for around what that tier is.
21:23I want to list off the guys that are making 55 million dollars a year.
21:27There are currently 13 of them. Mahomes has multiple MVPs.
21:30Allen has an MVP. Lamar has an MVP. Stafford has an MVP.
21:34Joe Burrow. Yes. He's been up there a number of times.
21:37Yes. No question. Okay. Dak, like you just said, 2023 MVP runner-up.
21:40Jalen Hurts. Even if you're frustrated by Jalen Hurts, 2022 MVP runner-up.
21:44He absolutely could be the MVP if you put him in the right circumstances.
21:48Okay. Jordan Love and Justin Herbert. I think the answer for both of them is yes.
21:52Absolutely. When you look at what they have done, the level that they have played at, even if it's been frustrating at
21:59times and it can be a little bit volatile, I think the answer is definitively yes for both of those players.
22:05I mean, Justin Herbert's second year, he threw 5,000 yards.
22:07Like the answer for each of those guys is yes.
22:10Jared Goff. I think the answer is yes. Like if you look at some of the statistical seasons Jared Goff has had,
22:17he's thrown for like 4,500 yards and 35 plus touchdowns.
22:20In an era where we have the aliens that are doing that plus some of the rushing, it's going to be hard to do.
22:26But historically, Jared Goff being the quarterback of a top five offense with this sort of passing numbers.
22:32Yes. Like if the Lions were to win 14, 15 games, there's absolutely a world where Jared Goff would be able to win the MVP.
22:39He's the most specific case probably. Like the window for how it would have to happen.
22:43But like there's absolutely a world where the offense goes a certain way and he throws 44 touchdowns in a season.
22:49And it's like, sure, if they win 13 games, yeah.
22:52Two more. Trevor. Could be the MVP of the league this year based on the way that he's playing, the way that offense looks.
22:59And the other one, that same deal, Brock Purdy.
23:02So those are 12 of the guys. The only one who's making 50 million that I think it would be hard to say this about is probably Baker.
23:10And even Baker in 2024, if that team wins a shitload of games, he had the numbers to potentially get you there.
23:16But I do think he's kind of the outlier among this group.
23:20And I think of all of these guys, that's the only contract where I look at it and say, I think that's a bad contract.
23:27All the other guys, I think I would give it to them in a heartbeat.
23:31And so when I was trying to do this and I was like, all right, well, if they're not as good, is
23:37it worth paying them $55 million a year? And I think the answer is yes, because if you have one of them
23:44and you can find the Liam Cohen, then the value of having a player like this, you're still not overpaying when you're
23:50giving them $55 million a year if they have the potential to have this sort of season.
23:55I totally agree with that, because I think it's easy to look at the top three or four guys, whoever it's going
24:01to be, and then comparing them to what Trevor is making, what Brock Purdy is making, what Jared Goff is making or whatever.
24:08And being like, well, it's not that big of a difference.
24:11Like, do you really want to pay those other quarterbacks that?
24:14But in my mind, it's more just like, I think the guys like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are just always going to be underpaid.
24:21Like, it's just the way that the league works, like the value that they give you, you are just getting a discount
24:28on it because those guys are so damn good.
24:30And realistically, I do think that, like you're saying, if you can have one of those dozen quarterbacks in the NFL at
24:36a given time that can have an MVP season, sure, you need more things to go right for those guys than Patrick
24:43Mahomes, Josh Allen, the Hall of Famers, whatever. Not everybody's going to work with a Hall of Famer at a time.
24:49There's only like five of them in a league at a given time.
24:53And so if you don't have one of them, but you think that they can have those highs and we're seeing it,
24:59like you said, with half of these guys, Dak Prescott, Trevor and Brock and maybe Jared Goff, like might do it this year.
25:05Like all might be in the running. And so, like, I do think that those guys are all like really good cases for what we're laying out.
25:13I also think we don't talk a lot about this because it's not totally relevant, but I think it's it's worth mentioning.
25:19I also think that's why the middle class reclamation quarterback contract over the last few years is so valuable because you're paying 60 percent of this premium.
25:27But I think you can make an argument that Sam Darnold is closer to this group than this group is to Patrick Mahomes.
25:34Yes. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Patrick. The three or four guys at the top are like such an untouchable fix everything all the
25:40time that it's you're just not going to get that.
25:43Whereas like with Sam Darnold, when you can allocate some other resources to pay for Demarcus Lawrence on defense and stuff like
25:49that, you can get them to like the thing.
25:52Sam Darnold, I don't think, is ever going to be able to lead an offense that is top three in offensive DVO or whatever.
25:59And they're the best in the league and he's going for MVPs.
26:02But I think that you can get them to the point where they are a top eight offense and you can have
26:09a wide receiver who is winning offensive player of the year.
26:12And that, I think, is for the money that you're paying, like probably better what you're getting than what on a year
26:18to year basis you're even getting for that like other middle tier.
26:21But there's none. None of those. Those don't happen.
26:24I mean, they have to luck into those guys.
26:27Yes. Yes. You have to luck into them. Like the bucks getting Baker Mayfield initially, like, I mean, they signed him for
26:33like a one year, whatever million dollars. Four million bucks.
26:36Yeah. It's like you stumble into that working out for you.
26:39And then even even in the case of Baker Mayfield, because he was a little bit older, smaller, gets banged up.
26:45I think a little bit more sensitive to some of that stuff did not last, I think, as long as they were hoping.
26:52Whereas like I do think that because Sam Darnold is such a good athlete, he's a little bit younger at the arm is unbelievable.
26:58Like I could actually see him having like the longer runway.
27:02Obviously, maybe if he gets paid at a certain point, the number will jump up.
27:06But like he at least has a longer runway, in my opinion, for this like continuing to work out for him.
27:12Yeah. And I also think that these those contracts just don't come along very often.
27:16It's a reminder that it's worth taking a chance on those sorts of players the way that the Vikings did with the
27:23Sam Darnold, the way that the Bucks did with Baker Mayfield.
27:26If we're admitting that we know less about the quarterbacks than we think and the quarterbacks are more sensitive to their surroundings
27:32than we think betting consistently on quarterbacks that were in poor surroundings and hoping you can get more out of them.
27:38That is a good bet. Unfortunately, the market is going to correct with that.
27:42Justin Fields signed a two year, $40 million contract with the Jets last offseason because the Jets were trying to make that exact sort of bet.
27:50I don't think it was the wrong process for exactly the reasons that we're talking about.
27:54But I think it's just a reminder that the chances to do this are very rare and they're going to dry up
28:00as the market corrects because of how valuable those contracts potentially are.
28:04Yeah, that's going to be the thing is everybody's going to try to do it.
28:08And then if you're signing if you're signing all of these guys for 20 percent more than whatever the contract you were
28:15getting for beforehand, it's like, well, then that's probably enough money to not sign guys like the Marcus Lawrence on defense anymore.
28:21And so it's like, then it's like, what's the point now if you're only saving 10 percent, 15 word.
28:26I'm just throwing out numbers. But if you're only like saving 10 to 15 percent on this mid tier quarterback based on
28:33whatever you're paying Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy.
28:35It's like, well, shit, sure. It's a little bit more expensive, but I'd way rather just have that guy at a certain
28:42point and hope that he's going to solve some stuff for me.
28:45Because because having one of those guys that can win the MVP is immensely valuable.
28:49Yes. And even if those guys, the Dak Prescott's this, that seven to 13 range, whatever we're calling it, even if they
28:56are more sensitive to their surroundings than the top guys like Patrick Mahomes and stuff, they are much less sensitive than guys like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold.
29:04And like, I do think that there still are levels to it, even if those guys ultimately are more sensitive to that stuff.
29:10So if the lesson with Trevor is patience and I think a little bit of humility and a little bit of let's
29:17wait and see, I want to go through what that process looks like for you specifically, because you never wavered in your
29:23belief that in the right circumstances, Trevor Lawrence could be, again, an MVP caliber quarterback, that he could reach that level.
29:29So I want, I just want to ask you as you were going through the 2023, back up to the 2023 season,
29:35and most importantly, the 2024 season before he got hurt, as you were watching Trevor and a lot of people were jumping
29:41ship, what kept you in a place where you were like, nah, this guy is still good?
29:46I think a big one for me, and I think some people sometimes get frustrated with like holding on to draft priors and stuff.
29:53We're going to talk about that. Yeah. But I think the draft prior stuff is like, this sounds ridiculous, but like it's valid.
30:00Those guys go that high in the draft because they are really talented.
30:04And I do think that that's where it started for me with Trevor is like, he's a really good athlete.
30:09He is like 6'5", like 215 pounds. He's a really explosive, not just mover, but thrower.
30:14Like the ball flies out of his hands. And I think just when you see, and the other thing with him, this always stood out at Clemson.
30:22It stood out in the NFL. There is, you can kind of really tap into who are the elite athletes at quarterback
30:28based on how well they throw when they're rolling to their left.
30:31Because to get your body around, to be able to throw that well, to be able to move like that, it's really difficult.
30:38And Trevor has always been one of the best in the NFL at it.
30:42And so to me, there was always just this level of talent that was really, really hard for me to move on from.
30:49And then I think that there were always just a couple of things that from his best moments, I was willing to cling on to.
30:56Like when he had any degree of offensive line help, his pocket presence is phenomenal.
31:00The way that he moved around and there were low moments where offensive line cratered a little bit and he starts to
31:06feel pressure that's not there and all that stuff.
31:09But that happens to a lot of quarterbacks. But in my mind, when he had his highs and he had help, the
31:15pocket movement and the feel was incredible. And the other thing with him, to me, is he was never afraid to make
31:22the most difficult throws on the field. Whether it's, you know, those dig routes, you'll throw deep outbreakers.
31:27Like he was always willing to make, to me, the throws that when these guys crystallize by the time they're 30, all
31:33of the best quarterbacks in the NFL are making these throws consistently.
31:37And you can get away with offenses on a year-to-year basis that don't necessarily do a lot of that.
31:42But over the long term, these quarterbacks have to make a lot of those throws.
31:46And I thought that he was always willing to do that.
31:49And then the last thing that I would say, and this always sounded like Cope in the moment, and it probably was.
31:56But a big part of Trevor's thing is that he is going to throw the football.
32:00He knows what the open throw is supposed to be.
32:03He can read the coverages. He is going to throw it.
32:06Whether or not you are open or can catch the football is your problem.
32:10And for a long time, for a long time, they just didn't have receivers who were comfortable over the middle of the
32:17field or were snapping off their routes at the right depth.
32:20And it was like, the quarterback looks like an asshole because he looks like he's throwing to a covered receiver or it's
32:26another drop or it's another tipped interception. And I think I was just willing to believe that with the right players and
32:33the right talent, that skill set and style of offense can work.
32:36And now we're seeing it. They trade for Jacoby Myers.
32:39Parker Washington has really come into his own as that style of player.
32:43And even Josh Cameron this year is more of a big body guy.
32:46It's like they have the right kinds of receivers to play the way that Trevor has always wanted to play.
32:52And I think I was just willing to believe that eventually we would get to a spot where the team would have that sort of talent.
32:59The receiving talent is part of it. But to me, the most important thing is Liam Cohen is one of the difference making guys.
33:06And that too. Like when you have one day he would get one of them.
33:11And I even in the moment when I was watching it, I was like.
33:15And it's so funny because I think people get annoyed by this too where we'll just put them in one of those offenses.
33:21Like just put them in one of like the under center Shanahan McVay offenses.
33:25And it's like they did it and then it worked.
33:28You know, it sounds stupid to keep saying that over and over and over again.
33:32But then for the most part outside of Herbert with McDaniel right now, which is a different conversation, a lot of these
33:39types of offenses do make it easier on the quarterback.
33:42They are a positive multiplier for whatever the quarterback is.
33:45It's you mentioning that some of the he's going to throw it no matter what things.
33:49I want to talk about that because I think that's interesting.
33:52My personal journey with Trevor specifically, I was firmly in the Trevor camp like all the way through the 2023 season.
33:58Right. Even when it was a little bit more frustrating.
34:01In 2022 in the back half of the season, he was great.
34:05And I think that's important. And I think that will bring me to another point.
34:09I want to hit here in a second. But even in 2023, the game I firmly remember where it felt like a
34:15fork in the road moment where you had to choose one direction or the other is when they played the Ravens on Sunday Night Football in 2023.
34:23He had that game where he turned the ball over a couple of times.
34:27He had a couple of fumbles. And I remember going back and watching that game and coming on whatever next show it
34:33was that we were doing and being like, I actually think he played pretty well.
34:38And I understand. And this is kind of what I want to dig into next.
34:42I understand if you are a listener, if you are a general NFL fan, having some asshole come on the show after
34:48you just watched a guy turn the ball over multiple times in primetime and tell you that he read some sacred text
34:55by going back and watching the tape that shows this guy actually played well would be maddening.
34:59I completely understand that. And there is a very interesting tension here.
35:03Okay. You're watching the people that are on the outside that do not have the time or get paid to go back
35:09and rewatch every single one of these games and understand exactly the context, every detail about why a play happened the way that it did.
35:16They're seeing a guy make mistakes. They're seeing a guy finish look like an also ran quarterback the way that Justin Herbert
35:23has at times over the last couple of years, the way that Jordan Love can in certain moments, the way that Trevor Lawrence did for long stretches.
35:30And they're being like, well, if it's the money ball thing, well, if he's a good quarterback, why isn't he playing good?
35:37And I get why there's frustration in what you're seeing.
35:40And then some people kind of sitting there and being steadfast and being like, no, I promise you that this guy is going to be okay.
35:47And I think as a product of that tension, there have been times where I've kind of thrown my hands up and
35:53been like, I'm willing to play devil's advocate here.
35:56It happened with Trevor in the middle of last year.
35:59We had the conversation about it. He was struggling.
36:01And it was just really hard as you heard this chorus of people being like, you guys are being stubborn, right?
36:07Like you guys are being unwilling to move off of things that you should move off.
36:12And I was open. I was understanding of that viewpoint.
36:15And so I think that tension makes it really difficult for somebody like you, somebody like the people that are watching these
36:21games to really sit and hunker down in what they believe.
36:24Because there are people who are going to accuse you of just being stubborn and cling to your priors.
36:30When in reality, if you did that with Trevor Lawrence, you would be correct.
36:34Like that would have been the right way to treat the situation.
36:37And so I'm really understanding of where people are coming from with this.
36:41Because the last, I want to be generous. I don't want to be like, well, you just have to watch the f***ing games.
36:48Like that's unfair. It's unfair to people who don't even have the ability to do that, let alone the freedom and time to do that.
36:55And so I get why that tension exists. I think we could be a little bit better in how we handle some of that tension.
37:02I think that's probably fair. At least the way I see it in terms of being willing to hold on to my priors.
37:09In some cases too long. I'll admit I am very stubborn.
37:12I think in the same way that the league is a very week-to-week league, it is a very year-to-year league.
37:17And I think that like some things are just going to vacillate all the time.
37:22But that doesn't necessarily mean that the player is that much better or worse.
37:26It can just be all of these circumstantial things.
37:28And I think that kind of leads me to another thing that I wanted to talk about where I think a lot
37:35of people, we all say that context matters. But then when it actually comes to applying it, it becomes very difficult.
37:41And we just default to like, well, if he's playing bad, then he's just not very good.
37:46And I think that sometimes that can happen. Like obviously like, you know, Trevor at certain points, I think it's been like, well, he's not playing well.
37:53And it's like, well, I think that there have been reasons for why that is.
37:58And like, I even think Trevor is a good example too, because he got saved, quote unquote, in 2022 by Doug Peterson and the offense.
38:05And then with that same staff, it all falls apart for him.
38:08And so it's like, well, why isn't it working?
38:11It's like, well, what you're looking at on paper, on the roster, on the coaching staff, if it is materially not helping
38:17him on the field, I don't give a shit what it says on the paper.
38:21This happened with, you're very familiar with this, Caleb Williams rookie year.
38:25We all looked at what that could be on paper and we were like, man, this could be so cool.
38:31Like, well, they can get by with the offensive line, but they'll be able to run the ball.
38:36Waldron can bring the offense and like, they've got some of these pass catchers.
38:40And then it was completely dog shit. And it was like, I think there was this tension of, we thought it was going to be good.
38:47And now the quarterback's playing bad in it. So he must be bad.
38:51But it's like, in reality, he's not playing great, but everything else was not nearly as good as we thought it was supposed to be.
38:58That is exactly what is happening with Justin Herbert right now.
39:01Yes, I have that in my notes too, 100%.
39:04None of the promise of the offense is coming through right now.
39:07That's exactly what's happening with him. And I just think if you're listening, if you're, again, if you're one of these people
39:14that is frustrated by this type of conversation, I get it.
39:17It's going to go back to the why, well, why is it never his fault?
39:21Why is it never their faults? Why is it never Jordan Love's fault?
39:25Why is it never Justin Herbert's fault? Why is it, why was it never Trevor Lawrence's fault?
39:30And I think part of it is that it is their fault, but it also isn't.
39:34Like, I think part of this like steadfast belief that it doesn't lay all at the quarterback's feet is that doesn't it
39:41make more sense when we have seen these guys play at super, super high levels before that what's changed more materially is
39:47the circumstances, not how good of a quarterback these guys are.
39:50Like a hundred percent. Like Justin, do we think Justin Herbert is a notably worse player than he was in 2022?
39:56I doubt it. I highly doubt it. I probably doubt it.
39:59And I think we think Drake May is a notably worse player right now than he was last year.
40:05That's another perfect example where we came into this year being like, they've got A.J.
40:09Brown, they signed Romeo Dobbs, and they're going to be able to run the ball better and all this stuff.
40:15The offensive line is not any better. Morgan Moses, they had to replace midweek three.
40:19They cannot run the ball. A.J. Brown is hurt.
40:22And Romeo Dobbs, they either don't know what to do with him and he's not playing very well.
40:27And so if anything, their pass catching core is worse because they don't have Stefan Diggs or Keyshawn Booty who were like
40:33not elite receivers last year, but better than what they are currently working with.
40:37So you add that on top of some of the schedule changes and it's like all of a sudden Drake May looks horrible.
40:44And it's like in reality, he's actually working with a worse set of circumstances than last year when we already said last
40:50year he was kind of getting by and making do with what he had.
40:54The last thing I want to say about that tension before we get down to how long we should be waiting for
41:00these guys and like what becomes – we can't just say we have to wait forever, right?
41:05There's got to be a cutoff point. Because that's unreasonable too.
41:08And I want to explore that. Part of this tension is also when you're in our positions and you're having to talk
41:15about these guys and even – not even people in our positions.
41:18When you're not afforded 90-minute podcasts where you can try to explore every ounce of nuance, I get in a content creation
41:25world why sitting there and being like, well, it's just not good enough around him.
41:29He's still a good quarterback. Sorry. And having that be the end of the conversation, that's not interesting.
41:34Like that's not compelling. That's not compelling in the same way that trying to put it on the quarterback and laying into
41:40the drama all of that is compelling. I get why this is how most of the conversations unfold because it does make for good content.
41:47It does make for good television. And if you're not somebody that's going back and re-watching all of this shit, it's easy to see.
41:54If the quarterback's not playing well and the offense isn't good, it's very easy to be like, well, the quarterback is the problem, right?
42:01I get why that happens. And so I think that also plays into this is that getting to a place where you're
42:08just like, ah, the stuff around him isn't good enough.
42:10And just going back to that over and over and over again in conversation doesn't make for compelling conversation.
42:16And at a certain point, even we have to get to a place where I think we're trying to have more compelling conversations than that.
42:23Yeah. And I think the last thing that I would say on this, which I think actually does kind of transition us
42:29into the next thing is like, I think a big thing for me and why I was willing to hang on to
42:36Trevor, for example, is that I think oftentimes when I'm trying to defend some of these quarterbacks or we're trying to defend them, whatever.
42:43It's not that they are blameless. Justin Herbert is not playing well right now.
42:47But the difference to me is that is he at fault or is he the problem?
42:51To me, he is at fault for some of their issues.
42:54He is not the problem with the offense. And that was like with Trevor Lawrence, for example, what I believed for a
43:01long time was that he is not the problem with what they're having.
43:04He had some bad plays. He's throwing interceptions. He shouldn't.
43:07He's got a bonehead play every now and then.
43:10But that he was at fault, but not the problem.
43:13And I do think that where a quarterback falls on that scale kind of depends on how much of a leash you
43:19can give them for two years, three years, whatever it's going to be.
43:23The last part I wanted to want to hit with the Herbert thing specifically is that I get why the treatment of
43:29him has been more frustrating to people than it might be for other quarterbacks.
43:33And it's because of what people tried to do with him very quickly.
43:37I am very guilty of that. You and me both.
43:40After that 2021 season, I absolutely was like, he's one of the guys, right?
43:44He is up there with everybody else. He is right there and will be with the Mahomeses, the Allens, all of that.
43:50That did not happen. I think because the aesthetics of the way that he plays are so exciting, we tried to elevate
43:56him into a place that he did not deserve to be quicker than we should have done that.
44:02And I get why I think that still plays into the frustration that some people have in the way that we talk about Justin Herbert.
44:09It's one of those. Well, five years ago, you told me that he was the third best quarterback in the league.
44:15Why now does he get treated the same way as these guys from six to 18 that you're talking about?
44:20I get that. That's a fair thing to criticize.
44:23And I think that was wrong, right? He probably is in this group and closer to the Dax and the Purdy's and
44:29all of those guys than we made him out to be probably too often.
44:33I am fully willing to admit that. I think that is important, too, because I think with almost all quarterbacks, and I
44:40think this extends to whether they have really high highs or really low lows early.
44:44Really low lows, I think, are a little bit more concerning.
44:47But even the really high highs, I think, can be misleading.
44:50I don't think we always know what a quarterback's true level is until four or five years into it, because some of
44:57these guys really early on can have insane highs.
44:59I even think Drake May last year is a good example.
45:02I want to save this for a second, because I want to end with this.
45:07Let's take one more quick break and dig into this, because I agree with you, but I also don't.
45:12Oh, OK. All right. So keep going with that point.
45:15The idea that you think that some of these early spikes can be a little bit misleading, because I think they can be.
45:22But I also think there's enough signal on them that they're important.
45:25They are important insofar as I think if a guy like that proves himself to have insane highs within the first two
45:31years, chances are he will be a, at minimum, top half of the league quarterback in this range that we're talking about,
45:38where you get paid the $50 million and it's fine.
45:41And I think that part is not misleading at all.
45:43I think sometimes, though, when a guy has Jaden Daniels' rookie year, Justin Herbert's second year, Drake May's MVP last year, where
45:50we are immediately like that guy's quarterback four. And it's like that probably, I think, is just sometimes of like a really
45:56talented player hits a spike and then defenses start to catch on to what they're going to do.
46:01Defenses change regardless of whatever that quarterback is. It's like things just happen where I think that quarterback is realistically probably not
46:07going to sustain that high all the time. You get rare cases.
46:11You get Patrick Mahomes, where he immediately steps in in his quarterback one and maintains that forever.
46:16And that's going to happen every now and then.
46:18More realistically, it's going to take four or five years of ebbs and flows, seeing what they look like in different circumstances,
46:25playing different schedules, playing different kinds of defenses. How do they adapt to the league changing and kind of what I talked
46:31about earlier of like most of the time, these guys have to learn to win different ways before they become something that is immovable.
46:38And I think that's why some of these really early spike seasons you get and it looks like this guy is going
46:44to be the next guy knocking on that door of elite.
46:47And maybe they can get there eventually, but it's not always as immediate as you as you want it to be.
46:53I'm 100 percent with you on this. I think the way that you framed it, I agree with.
46:59And I'll say this, and I've talked about this.
47:01I'm guilty of it. I get excited by the things that are new.
47:05And it's like, man, what if this guy can crack this group of players?
47:09And I probably do it a little bit too fast consistently because it's fun to buy into these guys.
47:14More good quarterbacks is fun. Yes. Yeah, it makes the league better.
47:18Come on. But I think what you're saying is right.
47:21And if you, because I think the next logical question here is with some of the other young players in the NFL, how long should we wait?
47:28How long is it reasonable to hold on and believe these guys might turn into quality quarterbacks?
47:33Because I do think if you look back at most of the guys that we're talking about, they all had a spike
47:40year in year like two and sometimes into year three, depending on circumstances.
47:43Okay. Lamar won the MVP in year two. Talked about how Herbert's year two was insane.
47:48Lawrence, 2024 was a frustrating year for Lawrence, but he was banged up that year.
47:522023 that he turned the ball over a decent amount, but I think still was playing really well or still was playing pretty well.
47:59In 2022, Trevor Lawrence was awesome. Trevor Lawrence had a really good year in 2022.
48:03So even if there was a little bit of a valley after that, relatively, we still saw by year two, Trevor Lawrence have one of those spikes.
48:11Drake may almost won the MVP last year. Jordan Love in year one as a starter had 4,100 yards and 32 touchdowns.
48:17But Stafford starts 14 through 30 because he got hurt in year two is the year where he had 5,000 yards and 40 touchdown passes.
48:25Almost all of the guys in this tier have one of those spikes in year two into year three.
48:30Like Caleb in the back half of last year probably gives you enough in terms of that spike to be like, okay.
48:36And from that spike, it doesn't have to be linear.
48:39It's often not linear, but if you have that moment, I think it's worth riding the waves in the subsequent seasons because
48:46that moment in year two, if you can play for an extended stretch that way is probably enough of a signal that
48:52you will come out on the other side of this as one of the players that we're talking about.
48:57Now, that I 100% agree with. If you reach the mountaintop, even when you fall in certain years, more realistically, you're falling
49:04to producing like quarterback 8, 9, 10, whatever it's going to be.
49:07And you still feel like a very good quarterback, even if it's very rare that a guy truly does break into that elite tier.
49:14I mean, that's why those guys are who they are.
49:17But yeah, I think we actually arrived kind of at the same place here with what we're saying.
49:22If you have one of those spikes, you're going to get a very long runway to prove that you can get back there again.
49:29And you should. Trevor Lawrence is the perfect example.
49:32It took us three years to get all the way back there where we could find those spikes again.
49:37But once you get to them again and you get the right circumstances, you get the right coach, you have an offense that might run the table.
49:45It really is. I think when you have those moments, you do have to hold on to them.
49:50And I think it's a good reminder with the young quarterbacks.
49:53It's been rough for Cam Ward. It's been rough.
49:56And if he doesn't have one of those spikes by the end of this year, maybe you start to get a little bit worried.
50:03But he's one of those players like I think we need to show a little bit more patience.
50:08We are 19 starts into his career, 20 starts into his career.
50:11Michael Penix has started 13 games. 13 games. I think we should be open to the idea of what somebody who is
50:17as talented of a thrower as Michael Panix is might turn into.
50:21The most interesting case here? Probably Bryce Young. Do we have enough time with Bryce Young that even if you, shockingly, and
50:27me are acknowledging that we are seeing the best version of Bryce Young we've ever seen this year, do we have enough
50:34time with Bryce Young for it to probably be unrealistic that he can become one of these players?
50:39That's the one where there's probably the most I don't know what to do with this among the group of young guys that we're talking about.
50:46He is a fascinating case because it goes back to what I talked about with Trevor Lawrence earlier and why I'm willing
50:52to hang on to him and some other players.
50:55Trevor Lawrence is exceptionally talented. There are only so many people in the world who are built the way that he is,
51:01who can throw the way he is, who can move the way that he does.
51:06Bryce Young, I think, is a good athlete and he has very good spatial awareness.
51:10But the physical tools are just not particularly special.
51:13And I think that's why it's a little bit harder for me to see him like holding on to top 10, top 12 quarterback status.
51:20But he is interesting in the fact that I think outside of these guys who spike really early, a lot of these
51:26quarterbacks, it takes until game 24, 26, 27 for it to start to come along.
51:30Caleb Williams, great example. It took a year and a half until he was able to be like, oh, he looks like one of those dudes.
51:38And I think that that is a more realistic and common path for the young quarterback.
51:42And Bryce Young is a perfect example for the first 20 ish starts of his career.
51:47He was unplayable. And the situation was bad, obviously.
51:50Don't get me wrong. Very bad. He looked like not an NFL quarterback.
51:53And they tried to bench him for Andy Dalton until Andy Dalton got in a car accident.
51:58And then Bryce Young had to come back. But then over the last year and a half or so, they've improved the offensive line a little bit.
52:06Obviously, they're banged up like right this moment today as we're recording.
52:09But in general, they've been better. And then you bring in guys like Terrell McMillan, Jalen Coker.
52:14This year, they bring in Darren Waller, like better receivers to give him a chance to look like an NFL quarterback.
52:20That on top of reps, and I think them honing in what they want to be on offense.
52:25He looks like totally functional and they look like they can be a solid NFL offense.
52:30I think to me, the difference is what we're talking about.
52:33Is this the spike? Like is the spike being 11th in quarterback, you know, EPA per play?
52:38Because if that's the spike, that's not good enough.
52:41The spike has to be like top four, top five for me to be like, man, that's something I really want to hold on to.
52:48And it brings me back to the conversation from earlier.
52:51If you have to decide whether you pay Bryce Young $55 million a year, I think the question you have to ask
52:57yourself, do we think in the right circumstances Bryce Young could be the MVP of the league?
53:02Even if you think he is a viable starter based on the way that he is playing right now.
53:07I think that feels like a tall order. I did not mean to do that.
53:12It works, though. I did not mean to do that.
53:14I'm in the same boat, though. I do think that I've gotten to a place where I think that there's a world
53:21where he can hold on to being a top 20 quarterback status and he can be a totally solid NFL starter.
53:27I just think that that is a player that if we're talking about paying like one of the top 10 guys and
53:33when he signs his deal, he's fifth or fourth on spot track or whatever or over the cap or whatever it's going to be.
53:40I'm still pretty hesitant about that because I just don't know if the ceiling and the spikes are really worth what it's going to cost to get there.
53:48The last thing I want to talk about in this conversation, because it's the only thing I had in my notes that
53:54I do think is worth bringing up that we did not hit.
53:58And the jumping off point for it was that Trevor game against the Ravens in 2023.
54:02As part of these discussions, we care about turnovers too much.
54:06Like whether or not a guy, I 100% agree.
54:08I 100% agree we care about them too much.
54:11They are influencing these conversations too much. They're the most visible place.
54:14They are so easy to fixate on. And I don't, I'm not saying turnovers don't matter for an individual game.
54:20Whether you win or lose that individual game, turnovers are the most, most important thing.
54:24Turnovers are the reason Josh Allen and the Bills lost to the Broncos last year.
54:29Turnovers are the reason that Trevor Lawrence and that team lost to the Ravens in 2023.
54:33For really the only reason Josh Allen ever loses games.
54:36Yes. And it, but it's that, but that to me, I think we fixate on them too much when we're trying to
54:42decide how good quarterbacks are in an individual moment in an individual game.
54:46It can be what sinks you. And maybe for Josh Allen, that's, what's keeping him from all time greatness.
54:51Right. And that's fine because the wins in those games are the biggest thing for Josh Allen right now.
54:57But for most of these guys, when we're trying to figure out where they sit in these conversations, we talk and think about turnovers too much.
55:04It's like, oh man, Justin or Jordan love through two picks in this game.
55:08Jordan love sucks. It's like, well, probably not. Like that probably isn't the most important long-term determining factor of quarterback quality.
55:14The number that jumped out to me, I just very randomly, I was on the 2023 season looking at some stats and
55:21sorted all 32 quarterbacks by EPA lost on interceptions.
55:23Purdy and Mahomes in 2023 were both bottom eight in the EPA they lost on interceptions in that year.
55:29Bottom eight. Like they lost more than almost every other quarterback?
55:32Yes. They were bottom eight in the EPA lost on interceptions.
55:35In 2023, the Niners were like an unstoppable offense.
55:38Unstoppable offense. Those teams played in the Super Bowl that year.
55:41Mm-hmm. So that's the only other part of this that like, I don't think I've ever said explicitly.
55:46I just think that, and this is the other thing, and I'll say this now, it's far enough removed.
55:51I firmly believe this. And it all worked out in the end because I think he probably shouldn't have won in 2024.
55:58Josh Allen should have been the MVP of the league in 2023.
56:01I'm a Lamar guy and I'm still never going to give up that trophy.
56:05But Josh Allen should have been the MVP of the league in 2023 and Lamar should have been the MVP of the league in 2024.
56:12If we come out even in the wash, I'm fine with that.
56:16Oh, yes, absolutely. Because honestly, Lamar probably doesn't win it in 2024 only because he won it in 2023 and Josh Allen didn't win it in 2023.
56:24I really do. And I wish this is one of those things that I wish I had more courage in the moment.
56:30Because Josh Allen turned the ball over so many times that year, that's why he didn't get it.
56:35Josh Allen should have been the MVP of the league in 2023 and Lamar should have won it in 2024.
56:41But I think this is important. And because what Josh Allen had to do, given that it was not a perfect team
56:47that year, most of the quarterbacks in my mind who can play top 10 football and have those MVP highs, it's like I said earlier, it's like Trevor.
56:55They're willing to make the throws that are really, really hard and willing to make plays and willing to make mistakes.
57:01Well, if your team ain't good and you're still willing to make mistakes, you're going to make them.
57:06You're going to get strip sacked. You're going to throw picks.
57:10You're going to take sacks you shouldn't take. Like that's going to happen.
57:13And I think like to bring him up again, Drake May is a perfect example of this.
57:18He is a quarterback who will press. He will make mistakes.
57:21He will try to find the big plays when it's running hot and it's working and he has enough help.
57:27He will make them when the situation deteriorates. He's not going to take the foot off the pedal.
57:32He's going to keep going in some quarterbacks will.
57:35And by virtue of that, when the team is bad, the quarterback doesn't look as individually terrible.
57:40Like I think Derek Carr is a great example of this.
57:43It's a great example where he had stretches where the team was not good.
57:47The offense was not performing. But individually, you look at box scores and you watch him play and you're like, I guess he wasn't that bad.
57:54But it's like he wasn't doing enough things to like really put himself in position to have the mistakes that you would need for those plays to happen.
58:02And so, again, I do think it sounds weird, but the guys who are the best quarterbacks are the ones who are
58:09willing to make the worst plays sometimes. And I think that explains part of the gap and part of the fixation with
58:15people like us really hyping up and talking about the talented, aesthetically pleasing quarterbacks.
58:19Because even the lows are going to be low when the circumstances get a little bit worse.
58:24But because the highs have a chance of being so high because of the way that they play, I think it's worth
58:30believing in betting on those quarterbacks in the long term.
58:33And so it just, again, speaks to a lot of the tension that can exist as we're having these conversations about these sort of guys.
58:40All right. I'm sure no one will be mad or annoyed about anything that we just said over the last hour.
58:46But I'm glad we had that discussion because as I watched Trevor and as I kind of thought about him in the
58:53broader context of the position and the league and just what we can learn from it, I thought it was worth having this sort of conversation about.
59:00Yeah, this was a blast. This was to be able to finally come back after five years of Trevor Lawrence being the
59:07guy I had to scream about he was good to be able to do a show of like he is good.
59:13It's we're in a happy place for me. All right.
59:15That is all we've got for today. We'll be back tomorrow with the week four preview.
59:20Until then, talk to you guys very soon. Thanks for tuning in.
59:24Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.
59:28If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment and leave a rating.
59:32We'll see you next time.
