Week 4 Preview: The Raiders are in our Game of the Week!

Kamara was on the receiving end of a highlight-reel tackle by N'Kobe Dean in the Saints game, where Dean flew downhill and made a cartoonish tackle on him. This play exemplifies the Raiders' defensive scheme and Dean's effectiveness in getting downfield quickly.

The source references Baker Mayfield's terrible performance in the previous week's game, describing it as "as ugly as it could possibly look for like any quarterback." The source uses Mayfield's poor outing as a comparison point when discussing the Dolphins' offensive struggles and their likelihood of having an ugly game against the Vikings defense.

Brock Bowers received 13 targets in week three against the Saints, which the source believes was a force-feeding situation to showcase the rookie in his first game; the source expects his target volume to normalize over the course of the season to a more balanced blend, though Bowers is described as an incredible player.

Brock Purdy is playing at an MVP level; the source believes he is better now than he was in 2023 when the 49ers offense was already great, noting he is doing more lifting in why the offense feels great; he is very good at reading and throwing the offense, can do things off schedule, and is perfectly suited to get the most out of Kyle Shanahan's system; the list of quarterbacks who could do what he is doing in the 49ers offense right now is very short.

The source observes that Dak Prescott appears stiffer and less precise as a passer than in years past. Specifically, his accuracy outside the numbers has been inconsistent; in the 10-to-20 yard range, he is throwing high frequently, willing to let receivers go up and get it, which is more pronounced this year. The source cites a specific example from the Ravens game where Prescott threw high to CD Lamb on an out-breaker intended for the right side, disrupting Lamb's timing and forcing him to go up for the ball in an awkward way. While the Cowboys offense remains really good and explosive downfield, the source notes there are one or two throws per game where Prescott at his best would make those intermediate throws more consistently.

The source identifies Jamar Chase as involved in the second explosive play the Bengals hit against the Steelers—a back shoulder ball on fourth and two against cover three in a one-on-one situation. The source notes this type of timing-dependent throw is only possible when Burrow maintains his eyes downfield and doesn't turn his back to the defense, which is more difficult in the Bengals' increased under center scheme.

Chase is a primary target in the Bengals' high-volume passing attack and can make plays even when not open; the source notes Chase catching the ball over Derek Stingley when 'he's not open. He's never open. And it doesn't matter because you can just kind of do that,' illustrating his elite ability to create separation and win contested catches in the Bengals' three-times-per-game haymaker shot approach.

Moore is the Chiefs' right tackle and is described as mediocre and replacement-level. The Chiefs' scheme of staying out of pure pass situations helps minimize exposure of Moore and fellow tackle Khalil Benson, as the team avoids situations where these weaker pass protectors would be exposed.

The source expresses concern about the Bengals' increased under center usage (30% so far, up from lower rates last year) and its impact on Burrow's play. While the run game has been solid and more efficient from under center, the passing game has struggled significantly; the Bengals rank 31st in passing success rate from under center this year, second-worst only to the Eagles. The source notes that Burrow "just doesn't feel like the best version of himself" when executing under center play action, particularly on timing-sensitive throws like back shoulder balls that require him to keep his eyes downfield rather than turning his back to the defense. The source argues that despite the offensive line and run game benefits of under center looks, the drawbacks to Burrow's passing efficiency and comfort level may outweigh the benefits, and suggests the Bengals might benefit from reducing under center usage while maintaining run game effectiveness.

Burrow is comfortable throwing from gun formation and hitting explosive plays downfield, but uncomfortable getting under center and throwing over the middle of the field with his back turned; the Bengals offense has adapted to this limitation by committing to a spread-and-shred approach similar to mid-2010s Steelers, which reliably produces a top-eight offense despite not being the original vision.

The source notes that the Bengals offense aims to keep Burrow efficient and ahead of the sticks, with a game plan that allows him to see coverage clearly; the strategy includes occasional deep shots (three times per game) where Burrow makes plays, though the source suggests better options would be preferable but this approach remains viable.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense have a favorable matchup against the Jaguars defense in Week 4. Teams have played man coverage only 17.7% of the time against Cincinnati (bottom-six rate), yet the Bengals have a 65% success rate against man coverage while averaging 10.7 yards per play, suggesting the Jaguars will need to adjust their defensive approach or risk continued offensive success.

Walker is central to the Chiefs' ability to execute their modernized under center run-heavy scheme. The source emphasizes that bringing in Walker allows the Chiefs to run the ball on their own terms and be explosive, forcing defenses to respect the inside run and play action game. Many of the Chiefs' runs hit right off center and right guard, illuminating the talent of Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. Walker's presence enables the Chiefs to avoid third-and-long situations; they've faced only the fourth-lowest rate of third-and-medium or third-and-long dropbacks in the league.

Kirk Cousins limits what the Raiders offense can do compared to what Kyle Kubiak could do with Sam Darnold; at 38 years old, Cousins was not an explosive player at his physical peak and lacks the mobility and arm talent to execute the boot-heavy, outside-zone-based scheme the way Darnold did with Seattle; this lack of explosiveness and pop will lower the ceiling for what the offense can achieve.

The source notes that Malik Willis has not been terrible given the horrible circumstances he has been put in as the Dolphins' quarterback. However, the source does not view Willis as the type of quarterback who can effectively beat the Vikings defense by throwing deep downfield—the way the source identifies as a potential path to beating Minnesota. The source suggests Willis lacks the receiver talent and the ability to see and execute deep throws quickly enough to exploit the Vikings' defense, making the Vikings-Dolphins matchup feel like a game that could get away from Miami very quickly.

Mike Evans is expected to play in week four against the Broncos; he is the offensive lead for the 49ers passing game discussion and the primary player of interest in the matchup.

Mahomes is benefiting from the Chiefs' modernized offensive scheme featuring 39.7% under center snaps (up from 18.5% last year) and heavy play action. On under center play action throws, he's averaging 13 yards per attempt with a 73.7% success rate and 0.59 EPA per play; through three games, the Chiefs have accumulated more cumulative EPA on under center play action throws than they had in three of the last four full seasons. His time to throw is 2.45 seconds on quick-hitting gun passes with a 48% success rate and 0.1 EPA per drop back, allowing the offense to minimize exposure of weaker pass protection.

Rice is being utilized effectively in the Chiefs' quick-hitting screen game, which is a core component of their modernized offense. The source notes that Rice, along with Xavier Worthy, can make plays with the ball in their hands, with Rice being particularly effective on screens. The source states that building the offense around Rasheed Rice screens is probably the best way to use him, as that's what he does best. This usage pattern helps the Chiefs' offense function despite receiver talent limitations.

The source highlights Tee Higgins as a beneficiary of the Bengals' offensive scheme, noting that one of the two explosive plays the Bengals hit against the Steelers was a go ball to Higgins. This is mentioned in the context of discussing how the Bengals' attempts to be more explosive through under center looks have had mixed results, but Higgins was involved in one of the successful explosive plays.

The source advocates for Travis Hunter to play more snaps at cornerback to build reps in the Jaguars' communication-heavy, zone-based defensive scheme. Hunter has special movement skills and can close on plays effectively, but needs consistent reps to be comfortable with the coverage assignments and pass-off responsibilities by playoff time; the source notes he didn't get many snaps against Denver early in the season but should be a top outside corner alongside Jerry Jones.

Kelce is a cornerstone of the Chiefs' revamped offensive identity. The source notes that Kelce looks better and smoother this year compared to prior seasons. He's featured prominently in the under center play action scheme, including on the first play against Miami where he caught a big chunk gain on a Seattle corner out. His improved performance and effectiveness from the tight end spot, combined with Kenneth Walker's addition, helps offset the Chiefs' receiver talent limitations.

Trey Tucker is having a pretty good season; the source notes the Raiders' wide receiver core is pretty limited in many ways, but Tucker stands out as a positive contributor to the offense.

Johnson is playing much better football than anticipated, particularly against the run. The source notes that Johnson is doing really good stuff, especially in the run game, and is coming downhill with physicality from the nickel spot. The Raiders play nickel 84% of the time, and Johnson's physical run defense from that position has been crucial to their defensive success. The source was surprised by this performance, as he thought Johnson had lost a step over the last year or two, but Johnson has found a fountain of youth and is playing much better than expected.

The source expected Teron Johnson to have declined in recent years, noting he seemed less physical and quick in the run game with diminished coverage skills, but he has played much better football than anticipated this season.

Worthy is part of the Chiefs' quick-hitting perimeter passing game, where he and Rasheed Rice can make plays with the ball in their hands. The source notes that even if the Chiefs' receivers are not perfect or very good at many things, Worthy and Rice can create value in the screen game and quick-hitting concepts that are central to the modernized offense.