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The Athletic Football Show fantasy football takes on Patrick Mahomes
Every source-backed podcast insight STACKED has extracted from The Athletic Football Show about Patrick Mahomes.
14
Insights
8
Positive
4
Negative
Insight ledger
All The Athletic Football Show insights about Patrick Mahomes
NegativeProjectionOct 5, 2026
Patrick Mahomes completed only 15 passes for 225 yards but won the game against the Raiders, marking the second time this season he's won a game with only 15 completions—the first time he's done this in five years (not since 2021). Mahomes averaged 11.3 air yards per attempt, significantly higher than his typical range, with six passes of 20+ yards in the air. The source notes this represents a departure from the Chiefs' typical offensive approach over the last couple of years, describing the offense as 'feast or famine' and dependent on explosive plays. Mahomes had a critical third-and-five completion to Taequann Thornton against cover zero where he 'bought that time' and found Thornton downfield, a play that changed the game's win expectancy.PositiveProjectionOct 2, 2026
Mahomes is benefiting from the Chiefs' modernized offensive scheme featuring 39.7% under center snaps (up from 18.5% last year) and heavy play action. On under center play action throws, he's averaging 13 yards per attempt with a 73.7% success rate and 0.59 EPA per play; through three games, the Chiefs have accumulated more cumulative EPA on under center play action throws than they had in three of the last four full seasons. His time to throw is 2.45 seconds on quick-hitting gun passes with a 48% success rate and 0.1 EPA per drop back, allowing the offense to minimize exposure of weaker pass protection.PositiveProjectionOct 1, 2026
The source cites Patrick Mahomes as a rare case where a quarterback immediately stepped in as a starter and maintained elite performance forever, contrasting him with the more common pattern of 4-5 years of ebbs and flows before a quarterback becomes immovable.PositiveProjectionOct 1, 2026
The source cites Patrick Mahomes as an example of an elite MVP-caliber quarterback who is significantly less sensitive to surrounding circumstances (offensive line quality, supporting cast) compared to mid-tier quarterbacks like Dak Prescott. Mahomes represents the top tier of quarterback stability and performance consistency regardless of environment.NegativeValueOct 1, 2026
Patrick Mahomes is cited as part of an untouchable elite quarterback tier (top three or four) whose premium contracts are so expensive that they represent a different value proposition entirely from mid-tier reclamation signings. The source notes these elite quarterbacks are 'such an untouchable fix everything all the time' that their cost makes them incomparable to value plays.PositiveProjectionOct 1, 2026
Patrick Mahomes is identified as one of only three quarterbacks (alongside Josh Allen and Joe Burrow) who sit alone at the elite tier and remain immune from year-to-year vacillations; Mahomes maintains point 08 to point 10 EPA per drop-back or better with really high success rates regardless of circumstances, though the Chiefs acknowledged after last season that even with Mahomes they can no longer play the most quarterback-centric offenses.PositiveProjectionSep 22, 2026
Patrick Mahomes looks as calm in the pocket as he has ever been, showing improved deep-ball accuracy and better mobility. The source notes that his ability to buy time and his performance against zone coverage make the Chiefs' offense look significantly more dangerous and enjoyable to watch compared to the last two years.PositiveProjectionSep 21, 2026
Mahomes looked like his elite self against the Colts, showing high accuracy down the field and driving the offense effectively throughout the game. The source notes this was his most accurate performance downfield in a long time, contrasting with his hit-or-miss outing in Week 1.NegativeUsageSep 15, 2026
Patrick Mahomes was involved in a miscommunication with Xavier Worthy that led to an interception, though the team still had opportunities to score.NegativeProjectionSep 15, 2026
The Chiefs' passing game under Patrick Mahomes was largely ineffective, with Mahomes completing only 8 of 18 passes for 62 yards in the first half and failing to complete a single pass beyond the sticks. Despite a second-half surge, the source remains worried about the passing offense's viability, noting that 18.5% of their passes were to the sticks, an untenable number compared to the league average of 39%.PositiveProjectionSep 10, 2026
Patrick Mahomes is fully healthy and set to make his season debut on Monday Night Football against the Broncos.PositiveProjectionSep 7, 2026
The source is backing Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs despite feeling weird about the team, believing that when Mahomes is healthy, the offense will be fine and the defense with young players and Spagnuolo will be solid. The speaker notes the Chiefs had the worst one-score game luck last year (1-7 or 1-8) after going 11-0 in close games the prior year, suggesting regression to the mean is likely.NegativeInjuryAug 26, 2026
The source highlights that Patrick Mahomes is entering the season coming off a torn ACL, which is a critical factor for the Chiefs' offensive outlook and their ability to overcome a weak receiving corps.NegativeInjuryAug 24, 2026
Ryan Paganetti notes that Patrick Mahomes suffered a minor injury on a quarterback sneak in the past, which led the Chiefs to largely abandon the play, negatively impacting their short-yardage efficiency prior to last season.