Quarterbacks at a crossroads in 2026
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 11 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 25, 2026
Published
Tue, August 25, 2026
17
Player insights
13
Players mentioned
Topics
Michael Penix Jr.C.J. StroudJalen HurtsBo NixBryce YoungDeshaun WatsonGreg DulcichJalen CokerJonathon BrooksJustin HerbertMac JonesNico CollinsTua Tagovailoa
Player analysis
Player insights
Bo Nix
PositiveBreakout40:27
The source views Bo Nix's trajectory positively as he enters his third year, arguing that he is entering the best environment of his career. The addition of Jalen Waddell and the overall improvement of the Broncos' offensive environment are cited as reasons for optimism regarding his development.
Insight pageBryce Young
NegativeProjection26:00
The source remains skeptical of Young's long-term viability as a starter, noting he has been a bottom-5 or 6 quarterback by most metrics throughout his career. While the team picked up his fifth-year option for financial flexibility, the source believes his ceiling is likely a middle-of-the-pack 'quarterback 20' and that the Panthers will likely seek competition or an upgrade in 2027.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
NegativeProjection14:10
The source debates whether CJ Stroud is at a true career crossroads. While some argue he hasn't taken a demonstrable step forward since his rookie year, others point out that he performed well in a one-dimensional, messy offense that struggled with rushing efficiency (27th in success rate). Stroud's passing efficiency remained strong, ranking 11th in EPA per dropback when he was on the field.
Insight pageNegativeProjection20:00
The source views Stroud as a top 12-ish quarterback long-term, noting that while he has elite talent and spatial awareness, his development has been inconsistent. The source attributes his late-season struggles to a poor offensive line and a lack of offensive cohesion, but emphasizes that he must prove he can avoid the 'all-time blow up' games seen in the playoffs to reach a top-7 status.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeRole5:00
The source notes that naming Deshaun Watson the Week 1 starter feels like an act of contempt toward the fan base, given his poor performance over the last three years and his history of injuries. The source argues there is no potential upside, as Watson has been an 'abject disaster' purely as a player, and the decision to start him over Dorian Thompson-Robinson or other options is demoralizing for fans.
Insight pageGreg Dulcich
NegativeUsage68:04
The source questions the pass-catching situation for the Dolphins, specifically mentioning Greg Dulcich as part of the uncertainty surrounding the team's receiving corps.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveUsage32:28
The source highlights Jalen Coker as part of the best collection of pass catchers Bryce Young has ever had. His ability to move around the formation is expected to provide the Panthers with a more dynamic passing game, provided he stays healthy.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
NegativeProjection37:43
The source expresses significant doubt regarding the consistency and quality of the Eagles' passing game under Jalen Hurts. They argue that the team's previous success was highly specific to an elite running game and that the current supporting cast is worse, making it difficult to replicate that success without a more consistent passing attack.
Insight pageNegativeProjection41:14
The source expresses skepticism about Jalen Hurts' ability to lead a consistent passing offense, noting that even in ideal circumstances, the Eagles' passing game has lacked consistency. The source highlights that Hurts has been a 'very specific' player to date and questions if he can adapt to a new, more varied offensive structure that requires better pocket presence and vision over the middle.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
PositiveUsage33:24
Jonathan Brooks is expected to provide the Panthers with a skill set they previously lacked: the ability to create yards after the catch and generate manufactured touches, further improving the environment for Bryce Young.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
NegativeRole51:19
The source views this as a critical 'crossroads' year for Justin Herbert, noting that with Mike McDaniel as his play-caller, there are no more excuses for underperformance. While acknowledging Herbert's immense talent, the source points out that he has struggled to calibrate his play style—balancing scrambling with traditional pocket passing—and that this season will determine if he can be the 'fourth most productive quarterback in the league.'
Insight pageMac Jones
NegativeValue36:25
The source identifies Mac Jones as a potential stand-in for a 'mid-tier resurrected first-round pick' in the 2027 quarterback market. He is viewed as a veteran option who could be signed at a manageable cap hit (around $12 million) to compete or bridge the gap for teams like the Panthers.
Insight pageMichael Penix Jr.
NegativeProjection59:13
The source is skeptical of Michael Penix Jr.'s long-term ceiling, citing his injury history, lack of mobility, and lack of touch on the ball. While acknowledging he is a 'mature NFL quarterback,' the source doubts he will develop into a top-12 fantasy option.
Insight pageNegativeProjection59:58
The source expresses skepticism that Michael Penix will develop into a top-12 NFL quarterback due to injury history, immobility, and lack of touch, but acknowledges he plays with a mature process, avoids negative plays, and has shown statistically strong production compared to peers like Bryce Young.
Insight pagePositiveUsage62:55
The source expects Michael Penix to see playing time this year, noting that he will likely take over for Tua Tagovailoa early in the season given the latter's poor preseason performance.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveUsage12:00
The Texans intend to move Nico Collins around the formation, including more slot usage, following the acquisition of Kayshawn Boutte. The source emphasizes that Collins is the focal point of the passing offense and that the team needs to optimize his alignment to get the best version of their attack.
Insight pageTua Tagovailoa
NegativeBust61:28
The source is highly concerned about Tua Tagovailoa's performance, noting that his preseason play was so poor that he might not even make it to Week 1 as the starter.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays.
0:03Today, we're talking about some quarterbacks at a crossroads entering the 2026 season.
0:06We did this episode last summer, chatted about guys like Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray.
0:10That ended up being real. Those guys were a crossroads in their careers.
0:14So we picked six players to talk about today.
0:17We'll dig into those with me, Dave and Derek.
0:19Quick bit of housekeeping, live show. September 1st, Lincoln Hall in Chicago.
0:23A few tickets still available if you have not gotten your tickets.
0:26Now is the time to do it. Doing the wins pool.
0:30During that show, we will have some Q&A and a little meet and greet after.
0:34So we'd love if you guys would stop by kicking off the division previews tomorrow.
0:38Big week at The Athletic Football Show. Big couple weeks.
0:41Let's get into the quarterbacks at a crossroads in 2026 right now.
0:45Our last show before the division previews kick off starting tomorrow.
0:48It's a episode we did last year that I really enjoyed and it's one that we wanted to revisit this year.
0:54Derek, we're going to talk about some quarterbacks at a crossroads today.
0:57Guys that have reached a fork in the road in their career and what happens this year could send them down either one of those paths.
1:05I'm very much looking forward to this is the show I've had circled for a while here.
1:10I mean, this is one that I think the last couple of years that we've done it has been one of our
1:16best shows because I feel like it's so it often does come to be like they really do hit like a fork
1:22in the road when we get to their next season.
1:25Like I think we did Trevor on one of these and then by the end of last year it was like I
1:32guess Trevor's just pretty good and like it seems like we've solved that.
1:36So I think that this always is like a good show for that.
1:39The two that I remember the two are that were like the onus for doing the episode last year were Trevor and Kyler Murray.
1:46Yeah, yeah, and Kyler would be on here again if we didn't put him on the most at stake show which like
1:53that's the funny thing now he's in a different bucket because of how last year went for him when he was at this crossroad.
2:00But he took he took a fork in the road last year and immediately came to another fork.
2:05It's just getting more confusing for Kyler Murray. We talked about Kyler at the most at stake show.
2:10We talked about Baker on the most at stake show.
2:13So if you guys want to hear. The conversation about those guys kind of under this umbrella.
2:18We've already done that the other guy that I would throw out here as a potential option that we're not going to
2:24talk about today simply because we spent so much time talking about him in kind of this way.
2:29Caleb Williams, I think is at a crossroads this year like there that situation in Chicago is very good.
2:35And so I think improvement from Caleb Williams is necessary might be strong but something to watch because I do think that
2:41how this year goes is going to go a long way and kind of pointing toward what the next few years of
2:48his career ultimately going to look like. We ended up settling on six guys that we have not talked about in this
2:54way that we wanted to dig into today. But before we do that a little bit of quarterback news that we wanted
3:00to hit to Sean Watson announced as the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns today per Adam Schefter.
3:06Dave, I'll see this to you first your your initial reaction upon seeing that the Browns are going to go with Deshaun
3:12Watson to at least start the season. My initial reaction is.
3:15Well, of course, and it's funny how you can lose sight of that during the breathless updates during training camp and Cleveland
3:21has become famous for charting their different quarterbacks pass attempts during practice.
3:25But if you if you zoom out 30,000 feet and keep this whole thing in mind, of course, dude, the report started
3:31trickling out in December when to Sean Watson's practice window got activated that he was so impressive and he looks so good coming off of the Achilles surgery.
3:39And maybe he's a viable candidate for 2026. That was before Todd Monken even took the job.
3:44You started hearing rumors that Deshaun Watson was going to be in the mix.
3:48And you think about the contract. You think about the ramifications if he's not starting for the Cleveland Browns.
3:54And like I said, it's it's easy when you get into training camp to watch him play and look bad during the
4:00preseason and lose sight of all of that context.
4:03And it's cynical and it's kind of bleak to just come back to the big picture.
4:07But as disappointing as it is that this is where the Cleveland Browns are and these are the sorts of decisions they continue to make.
4:15Like you can't say it's overly surprising when they've been laying the groundwork to do this for nine months.
4:20It's just you were kind of willing yourself to believe in a different course of action.
4:25But it it kind of feels like this was always going to be the logical conclusion.
4:29I think where I land on this is like this is one of the most embarrassing moments, I think, in like the
4:36history of the sport, followed only by the other time that they tried to start him back in 2023 when he obviously
4:42this is after all of the allegations and things came out.
4:45And then he played horribly. He was one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, has had multiple injuries since then.
4:52And then, like you said, Dave, they kind of went into this year like sure, they have Schrader Sanders on the roster
4:58and they drafted Dylan Gabriel last year. But it kind of felt like the competition this year was a little bit of
5:05a song and dance and that he was ultimately going to get the job.
5:09And I posted this on Blue Sky. There have been a lot of bad week one NFL starters, like guys who are
5:15just not necessarily cut out to be good at the job.
5:18This is the first time that I can remember where naming the starter felt like it was done out of contempt for the fan base.
5:25Like it's great. Just like who he is and how poorly he's played and what he's done over his three years there.
5:32It's just like it kind of blows my mind that they either didn't bring in any other competition or weren't just willing
5:38to run out the string with Schrader Sanders or whatever else it was going to be.
5:43I think the fan base is also where my mind goes.
5:46Let's rewind just a little bit because I do think that you're not wrong, Dave.
5:50There are obviously bigger things at play here just in the sense that it's not a competition with a quarterback who's making
5:57whatever Deshaun Watson's making every single year doesn't normally exist.
6:00You know, I mean, that's just the level of complexity and beyond what we typically consider here.
6:04But I do think that I don't know if there's anything conspiratorial as to why we arrived here.
6:10I do think that this is Todd Monken looking at his best chance to win football games early in the season as
6:16a 62 year old, 63 year old head coach and making this choice.
6:20Whether that's the right choice for the fan base is an entirely different conversation or even the right choice for the organization.
6:26There is no potential upside waiting for you here.
6:29We know what he is at this stage. And even if you think, all right, he can handle some of the operational
6:35stuff with a little bit more proficiency than a second year quarterback.
6:39And that's why we want him to play. That to me just isn't a good enough reason when you have to sell this to the fan base.
6:46Beyond the last four years and what that has looked like and how much of a slap in the face it's been to the fans, period.
6:54Coming off the press conference on Saturday, that to me feels disqualifying.
6:57Like at a certain point, you are actively antagonizing the people who are paying to go see the football team.
7:03Even if you think this is your best chance to put the best possible product in the field.
7:08Which, by the way, I don't even believe. I don't even believe that.
7:12When I was there, my understanding is that the preseason games were going to help dictate how this was going to go.
7:19Because what he looks like in live action is going to be different when there's a real pass rush.
7:24He looked terrible. That's how he looked. So even if, well, he's practiced better and he had a good practice against the Bills.
7:31Well, those games either mattered or they didn't. And so by all, the way that this has played out, it seems like they didn't.
7:38And so I just, I can't imagine being a fan of this team and having this be the end point.
7:43Because it is so demoralizing. Even if you're choosing between two bad options.
7:47And Shadour probably isn't ready to be the quarterback of a functional NFL offense consistently.
7:52The same way he wasn't last year. I just can't imagine a bigger slap in the face than going this direction if
7:58you're somebody who has to root for this team.
8:00For football reasons beyond all of the other ones.
8:03And so the idea that you're going to crack open your week one game as a Browns fan and have to watch
8:09this in a moment where there should be more excitement than at any other point in the season.
8:15And man, just, I truly can't imagine what that has to feel like if you care about this team at all.
8:21The other thing I would say too, the other cynical thought that I came back to is if you removed all of
8:27the unsavory elements of the Deshaun Watson saga, he hasn't been a good player.
8:31He's like, to your point, he was, he was in half a decade.
8:35It's been a long time. And so, and, and let's, let's be, let's be blunt and honest.
8:40Like if he was good, there would be plenty of people either willing to look the other way on the allegations or
8:46pretend they don't exist or outright say they don't care about it.
8:50People are willing to, to do that in the name of sports success.
8:53It's not ideal. It's just a fact of human nature.
8:56So to sit there and act like it, it, it's personal that the fans are booing you and it's, it has nothing
9:03to do with your ability as a football player.
9:05It's just not true. You have been an abject disaster purely as a player.
9:09And then that is in addition to all of the other elements that make this whole thing a bummer to talk about.
9:16And yeah, in addition to having no confidence that he can do anything for your football team, you add that element on top of it.
9:23Yeah. I don't envy Cleveland Browns fans and, you know, getting, getting poked on the way out on Saturday by Deshaun Watson is like adding insult to injury.
9:31And then on top of that, him apologizing after being named the starter on Monday morning is like the first time he's
9:37ever even attempted to take accountability for anything in this entire saga.
9:41And at this point, it doesn't count at this point.
9:44It doesn't count. I give this a month. Yeah.
9:46I give this a month. That's the other thing.
9:49Neither quarterback here was starting 17 games probably. And so I just feel like not that I really give a shit about
9:55like how much the Browns are saving themselves PR wise, but if you at least start Schroeder Sanders, it falls apart.
10:01He falls away. I think people would have just like been whatever.
10:05If Deshaun comes in by week nine, there's something about going in and naming him the week one starter.
10:10That is just like, you just didn't have to do that.
10:14And I think it's just like a final embarrassing note on this entire saga.
10:18They just can't cut him. Right. I mean, that's the reality of the situation is they just can't cut him.
10:23They cannot financially move on from him this season.
10:26This is always going to be weird and messy because of that.
10:30He'll be gone next off season. They'll be starting over a quarterback, likely drafting a guy somewhere in the top 10.
10:36The goal at this point has to be can we hang on through this season with the young pass catchers and just
10:42capture some any level of excitement and optimism to get us to next spring when we will have a different answer to this.
10:49But at a certain point, you're just trudging through like a river of shit to get there if you were a fan of this team.
10:56And that's how it's been for years. And it's not as like exactly Cleveland Browns fans have a lot of experience trying
11:02to get excited about a team that doesn't have a good quarterback.
11:06And there are a dozen ways you could find enthusiasm for the Shadur Sanders era, even if he doesn't wind up being any good.
11:13But there I mean, there's nothing there. There's nothing redeeming or fun about starting the season off this way.
11:18And it doesn't have to be that way. And like I said, cynically, it's not surprising, but it's still disappointing.
11:24All right, let's get to our first quarterback here and let's start with another little bit of news that came out right before we started recording.
11:32We wanted to talk about CJ Stroud as a guy who we think is at a crossroads heading into this season.
11:38And CJ Stroud has a new receiver as of about 2 p.m.
11:41Central time on Monday, August 24th. Kayshawn Booty heading to the Texans for what sounds like a seventh round pick for Tom
11:47Pelissero that I think belonged to the Saints at one point.
11:51It's funny. We were just talking about this last week, about how the receiving core would shake out without Jaden Higgins.
11:57And Derek, we're trying to figure out who would be able to credibly be like a perimeter vertical receiver on this team
12:03in order to move Nico Collins around to do the things you were going to place on Jaden Higgins's plate.
12:09There wasn't a clear answer among the group. Well, now Kayshawn Booty is exactly that type of player.
12:14Like you can just stick him outside the numbers.
12:17And I think now you have to move Nico Collins around in order to get the best version of the offense.
12:23And so this does make sense to me. Like it's not ideal.
12:26Jaden Higgins, I think, was in line for a really nice second season.
12:30But I completely understand the Texans thought process and why they landed on doing this.
12:34I mean, this was as good as it was going to get for them in terms of who they could acquire at this stage in the calendar.
12:42Right. And I think he actually like can solve either problem for them.
12:46I think if they want to do what you're saying, where it's like, let's actually move around our best player in Nico
12:52Collins, put him in the slot more, maybe put him off the ball, do all this sort of stuff with him and
12:59just have Booty be our clear out X vertical player.
13:02That's what Kayshawn Booty does best. Like even when he was, you know, a rookie and that was he was even a
13:08more limited player than he is now. That was all of his best stuff.
13:12I also do think that even though Higgins is bigger and probably a little bit better, like going up and getting the football.
13:19I do think Booty can be a little bit like you put him in the slot.
13:23He's a guy who can slash across the middle and do some of that stuff.
13:28So like, I'm going to be curious over the first month of him being in the offense, like which of those two
13:34roles do they actually think suits him better? Or obviously suits Nico Collins better, because that's who you really want the passing offense to be about.
13:41Sometimes this stuff is really simple. Like you don't have to be an expert to look at New England's receiver depth chart
13:48and say, ah, not a whole lot of opportunity for Kayshawn Booty there.
13:52I wonder if somebody might want him. And then the Texans, unfortunately, have a big injury.
13:56I think anybody paying half attention to the league the last three weeks was like, this feels like it makes sense.
14:02And lo and behold, the GMs of the teams agree with us.
14:06All right, let's get into the Stroud part of this conversation.
14:09Dave, why in your mind is an exercise like this worth starting off with CJ Stroud as we head into 2026?
14:15You know what's funny? I don't know if I'm the guy to ask because and I wanted to say this at the top.
14:22I wasn't on this show last year, and I'm excited to do this with y'all because I tend to look at things
14:28in different ways sometimes from the two of you.
14:31I really value doing this exercise because it illuminated some things for me about various quarterbacks.
14:35CJ Stroud being chief among them, because I would posit to you, I don't really think CJ Stroud is at a crossroads.
14:42I think CJ Stroud is in a perfectly good spot.
14:45I can't tell you when the contract is coming or what the money is going to look like, but I think CJ
14:51Stroud is going to be in Houston for a while, one way or the other.
14:55And that was my overarching conclusion where I don't think there's that much of a fork in front of him.
15:01Here's what I'll say. Anyway, this conversation and this exercise is not necessarily about drastic changes when it comes to where a
15:07player is going to be or like Trevor Lawrence had already been paid.
15:11You know, when we were having the Trevor Lawrence conversation.
15:14I think this is just more about what type of career, what type of player these guys end up becoming wherever they wind up.
15:21And I think that's kind of where I land with CJ Stroud, where I think with CJ Stroud, the idea that he's
15:27regressed since his rookie year to me isn't really correct or fair.
15:31Like, I don't think that he's a markedly worse player than he was as a rookie.
15:36If you look at the numbers from last year, they are not worse than he was as a rookie.
15:41And I still think those circumstances in Houston weren't great.
15:44He has not taken the step forward that I think we've wanted to see.
15:48That dramatic step forward. He has not improved in a demonstrable way since from where we saw him as a rookie.
15:54You can argue that maybe some nuanced things and some small things have happened.
15:58I think that to me is where the crossroads part of this comes in.
16:02Even if we think he's going to be a Houston Texan, I still think year two of a system where they went
16:09out, tried to remake the offensive line. I think that it's where this season goes for CJ Stroud is going to change
16:15the way we probably think about CJ Stroud one way or the other, even if he's probably set up to be the Texans quarterback.
16:22And even that I would have an ounce of doubt about what that contract ends up looking like and when it comes.
16:28Because if he has a gangbuster season and he gets paid after this, that's one choice rather than we're going to play it out.
16:35Maybe we tag you because we're just not convinced yet.
16:38I think that's more realistic than you probably do right now.
16:41I'm not going to back down off of this take.
16:44And some of this is projection, by the way.
16:47And I'll just say off the jump, I have a tremendous amount of confidence that CJ Stroud is going to be just fine.
16:53I can't help but think back to this time last year when Derek and I were saying, this is the offensive line.
17:00This is what we're going to do. This is what we're doing in year three of CJ Stroud.
17:05And lo and behold, it wasn't enough to keep him out of the playoffs.
17:09But the concerns were there heading into last year.
17:12Like you should not have been surprised that the Texans offensive ecosystem was pretty bad heading into last season, in my opinion.
17:18And to your point, Robert, I went back and looked at the numbers and I think they're very illuminating.
17:23The Texans offense finished 19th in the league in EPA per play.
17:27Improves to 18th, by the way, if you don't account for the month that CJ wasn't in the lineup.
17:32More importantly, they were 14th in EPA per dropback.
17:35And if you, again, account for the full month of the season that CJ Stroud was unavailable, they were 11th in the NFL in EPA per dropback.
17:43This was a perfectly good passing offense with CJ Stroud at quarterback.
17:46And you say, well, why wasn't it better then?
17:49They were 27th overall in success rate, probably because they were bottom three in EPA per carry and rushing success rate.
17:55They had the eighth highest stuff rate in the NFL and the third lowest explosive run rate in the league.
18:01CJ Stroud was doing a pretty good job quarterbacking a completely one dimensional and messy offense.
18:05And one way or the other with an improved ecosystem, I think he's going to be just fine.
18:11I think he's going to be justified in asking for a contract extension.
18:14And if the Texans do want to tag him, that still puts him under club control for a minimum of two years
18:21before he could ultimately get this contract extension. When I was thinking about it, in some ways, it reminded me a lot
18:27of Dak Prescott, where at the age of 33, having made all the money in the world, we forget about how hard
18:34he had to fight for his first deal. But he did.
18:37And I feel I feel the same way about CJ Stroud, where I'm like, it might be kind of messy, but I
18:43think you're going to be the Texans quarterback for a long time.
18:47And I think you're good and I think you're going to play well.
18:50And that some of that is projection, but I feel pretty good about it.
18:54I feel like I land on both sides here.
18:57I think if I'm just taking a guess and like giving my take on the player, I think that he is good
19:03enough to be a guy that you pay. He will be good long term.
19:07He will develop. But I do think that he's in a unique position right now in a couple of ways.
19:13One, it feels pretty atypical for a guy like him to not be paid immediately when eligible, given what some of his
19:20highs have been like, given what his rookie year was, some of the playoff games that he's won.
19:25I know they lost. But like in 24, he played really, really well against the Chiefs in that playoff game.
19:31Like the highs that he's had, usually that player, like as soon as they're eligible, it's go time.
19:36And so the fact that he hasn't, I do think does put him in a little bit of a unique position.
19:42Think about the rookie year. Think about after the rookie year, the idea that after his third season, we would just not
19:48be rubber stamping whatever the next highest paid contract is.
19:51Like there's a difference between we're paying you because we don't have a better option and we're excited to do it.
19:57And I think that to me is the crossroads.
20:00I agree. It like it feels like it. And it goes back to what you said, too.
20:05Like CJ Stroud is at worst an average NFL QB.
20:08I think he's better than that. But I think after his rookie season, the idea was that, OK.
20:13If this is the starting point, he can become something like Matt Ryan or Dak Prescott or something in that level where he's a perennial top eight quarterback.
20:21He has some of these highs that he's throwing 35 touchdowns in a year, whatever it's going to be.
20:26I just don't know if we've seen that much development from him.
20:30And again, I think that there's reasons for that.
20:32I think some of that is probably on his own.
20:35Some of that is that the offensive line has been terrible.
20:39And I do think that there's like a cumulative effect of the offensive line being as bad as it is.
20:44And so I think all of that is true.
20:47And I also think why he becomes kind of a hot button player to talk about and should he be paid, should
20:53he not, is that it's not that like his numbers overall are lower.
20:57Like Trevor Lawrence was not a particularly productive quarterback overall until, you know, by the time he got paid.
21:03And CJ Stroud, I think, has been more productive than that.
21:06But the problem with CJ Stroud is he's had blow up games.
21:09And I think that people just remember that. And you are a little bit worried that like, is he going to keep doing that?
21:16And again, I think a lot of that comes down to just the offensive line being as bad as it is.
21:22But I think that's something that sticks with people.
21:25And I think the last thing that I would say that really puts like a magnifying glass on him.
21:30This roster is ready to win the Super Bowl for the most part.
21:34Again, the offensive line has its issues and it's not a perfect offense.
21:38But like that defense is special. And last year, if he just played normal bad, they might be in the Super Bowl.
21:44But he was like all time blow up, could not get himself together.
21:48And again, I've said, I don't think that that's like a trait that he's going to carry for the next 10 years necessarily.
21:55But it's objectively true that he kind of botched those games for a team that was ready to do it all.
22:01So he's just in a weird position. And so I ultimately think you pay him and he will get paid and that
22:07he's going to be a top 12-ish quarterback for a long time.
22:11But I do think that there was a world where I was pretty ready to say he will be top 7 at some point.
22:18I'm a little bit more like you got to prove that part of it to me again.
22:22I think that's where I'd land as well. Because Dave, I've said a lot of the same numbers you just spat out
22:29about the dropback success rate or the dropback EPA when he was on the field.
22:33Like it was good. And I also am of the opinion that there is a better version of him winning on the other side.
22:40But I think Derek laid it out well. Those games are real.
22:44Those games at the end are real. Those are the most important games.
22:47And so I do think that there is a chance we see the best version of him.
22:52But I also think that his game, I think year two in this offense will be really telling.
22:58I think is what I'll say. I think that there are elements of who he is as a player that are non-negotiable.
23:04Like his talent as a thrower. His feel for coverage is very good for a player.
23:09He understands where guys are. He doesn't throw a lot of interceptions, which makes the playoffs very funny.
23:14But I think his awareness and spatial awareness is very good.
23:17I think there are details and things about the offense that need to be better as we head into year two of it.
23:24I think there are elements that just need to be a little bit more buttoned up than they probably were a year ago.
23:30And I do anticipate him doing that. Like I think that with better offensive line play, with a better running game, and
23:37in year two of the offense, there is a chance that we see the best version of him we've ever seen.
23:43And that includes the rookie year. But that's where the crossroads comes in.
23:46Like if that happens, we talk about him in such a different way than we are right now based on how the end of last season ended.
23:54And I think we talk about the Texans in a slightly different way.
23:58And so I'm very open to what you're saying, Dave, in the sense that like everything will come together in a way that it has not right now.
24:06And it will reframe the discussion about him from where it is right now.
24:10But I think that's the reason we're having the discussion.
24:13Because that has to happen, I think, for a lot of people to snap back into being believers in the trajectory of which direction he's headed.
24:21Because at the very best, it has mostly been flat since we saw him do what he did as a rookie.
24:27It's a valid conversation. And it's a great point.
24:29I don't mean to gloss over the playoffs, but we just have such a larger sample size of regular season games than playoffs.
24:36But that Texans team could absolutely have reached the Super Bowl and maybe won it if C.J.
24:41Stroud just hadn't lost his mind for two weekends.
24:43And that's worth bringing up. But I balk at the idea, and it's not to absolve him completely, but I balk at
24:50the idea that going into the season, we were like, this isn't good enough.
24:54What are you doing? You have this promising young quarterback entering year three, and this is what you've done to put him in a good place?
25:01And it was obvious in August of last year, and the Texans defense was good enough that it didn't bite them in the ass until it really mattered.
25:10But I can't sit here and put that all on C.J.
25:13Stroud when I felt like it was very obvious before the season even started last year that they were setting him up to disappoint.
25:20And so I'm willing to give him some leeway.
25:22If this year doesn't look markedly better, I'll eat my words and I'll have no problem doing it.
25:27But I think it's a little knee jerk to pile on C.J.
25:31Stroud for problems that were easy to see coming before the season even started.
25:35And in spite of that, in the big picture, he was still a pretty good player.
25:40And so I just have no problem believing that last year was more of an aberration than anything.
25:45The end of last year. Yeah. Well, just in totality.
25:48But we'll see. I have no problem admitting I'm wrong if this goes belly up.
25:52All right. Let's take our first quick break and then come back and chat about C.J.
25:57Stroud's 2023 draft mate and where he sits coming into this season.
26:00Bryce Young in a very similar situation to C.J.
26:03Stroud. Fifth year option picked up. He will be on the Panthers roster at the very least in 2027.
26:08But how excited they are about giving him an extension, how realistic that extension is, is an entirely different discussion.
26:14Dave, I'm going to see this one to you first as well.
26:18Because I think you are more equipped or prepared to give the price pro Bryce Young stance about how this could work
26:24out than our buddy over there is. The funny thing is.
26:27My big talking point with Bryce has always just been what's the downside.
26:31I know I agitated some people earlier in the year back in the spring when they picked up his option saying that makes perfect sense to me.
26:39The option for next year for Stroud and for Bryce Young is just shy of $26 million.
26:44It comes out to like we don't have the 27 cap figure finalized.
26:47But if it jumps the way we think it's going to jump, Bryce Young will be counting for something like 7 or
26:548 percent of the upcoming salary cap. It just doesn't matter to me.
26:57So securing him for 2027, I think it makes all the sense in the world if Bryce Young is making quarterback 20
27:04money to make sure that you have a guy on your roster.
27:07My question is. How good would it need to look.
27:10To not address the position in another way in 2027, because that's that's the difference.
27:15This is not about like whether he gets paid or not.
27:18It's like how realistic is bringing in competition for him after this year based on the way it goes.
27:23I'm not having that conversation about CJ Stroud. I'm having that conversation about Bryce Young.
27:28Yeah, even as the Bryce guy on this show, I mean, you can't argue with the numbers, which is that Bryce has
27:34been a bottom five or six quarterback, depending on the metric that you want to use really across his entire career.
27:40And even last year on the way to the playoffs, he was 28th out of 33 qualified passers in EPA per drop back 26th in success rate.
27:48I mean, like the the I'm using scare quotes here, the good version of Bryce has not been remotely what you want from a starting quarterback.
27:55And I don't know. I got that's that's what I'm curious about.
27:59Like, could Bryce Young improve up closer to middle of the pack?
28:02And if he can do that. Is that enough to be satisfied?
28:06I don't know. I really don't know the answer.
28:08And it is ultimately a great crossroads question, because heading into this season right now.
28:13Even as a Bryce defender, I don't think I believe that the Panthers are just going to roll with him in 2027
28:19like they will do something else at quarterback, barring a jump that we just can't even fathom yet.
28:24I think where I land on it, you bring up the middle of the pack, I think is a good way to frame it.
28:31I think it's possible that he gets up towards playing exactly like quarterback 20.
28:35And he really is like middle of the pack.
28:38That just feels like the ceiling. Whereas the guy like when we were like, you know, hemming and hawing over like Trevor
28:44Lawrence or even Kyler Murray recently, like their floor is kind of like like quarterback 20.
28:49And so I think it's just a matter of like, is this guy actually elite?
28:53And can he win us playoff games? I think when the ceiling is what it is for Bryce Young, to me, obviously
29:00them bringing tagging him with the option is not necessarily like a long term commitment.
29:04But he's just not a quarterback that I can really envision a long term commitment for.
29:09I think that he's been good enough that there will he might get a, you know, a deal where he gets to
29:15come in and compete somewhere else for a starting job.
29:18Like, I don't think he's any worse than like Jacoby Brissett or Gardner Minshew or any of these other guys who have been in that realm.
29:25I just have a really hard time, given the talent, given the size, envisioning a world where he does play much higher than quarterback 20 pretty consistently.
29:33Unless the team is just like absolutely loaded. Like to me, I think he feels a little bit like Andy Dalton-ish.
29:39But even Andy Dalton at his peak with the Bengals was bigger.
29:43I think you can argue that he was at least as good, maybe a better athlete.
29:47Like people forget like Andy Dalton could really move when he was a little bit like.
29:52Absolutely. He was a runner at TCU. Like he could do that.
29:55And so I think that there was just even more to his game.
29:59And so I think if the best version of what you're getting is 90% of what those mid-teens Dalton was, I think
30:06it's hard for me to envision the world of like what the upside actually here really looks like.
30:11Let me ask you a question. Is there a price point where Bryce Young starts to become appealing to you?
30:17I mean, let's assume, let's just say he ups his level of play to like a fringe middle of the pack kind of guy this year.
30:24Is there a price point where you would be willing to try to build around the surplus that he might be able to give you?
30:31Because like Bryce Young, I'm just, I haven't seen anything that gives me confidence.
30:35Like I wouldn't even entertain, you know, anything near a top of the market extension for Bryce Young.
30:41But like if somehow I could get him on the Sam Darnold deal, is that appealing at all to you?
30:46Or do you not even believe he could get you to that sort of?
30:50I don't think so. Because even, because realistically that's what it would be, right?
30:55No, no, he's not going to sign a $15 million a year deal.
30:58Like that is a more a number that it's like, okay, you can start to convince yourself.
31:03But that's just not happening. But even the $33 million a year deal doesn't exist for players signing their second contract.
31:09It just doesn't exist. Okay, but wouldn't you, and I understand that, but Bryce feels so unique in this regard.
31:15That if it happened, it would be him. I just can't.
31:18The same way it was for Andy Dalton, by the way.
31:21Right, exactly. Which is why he kind of does feel like the comp in the best case scenario.
31:27But I think to your point, Dave, the guys who've signed and had success in that range are Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold.
31:33I think the arm talent and the way that you can build a passing offense is just different.
31:39Like Sam Darnold is imperfect, but you can craft a passing game, like a really explosive passing game around his best strengths, even if he's got some downsides.
31:47He's fantastically talented. Yes, there's a reason he was the top, what, third overall player?
31:51He's got a pick in the draft or whatever, and like eight different teams were trying to give him a chance because the talent is undeniable.
31:59And you can build a passing game around what his best traits are.
32:02And I think the same is true of Baker Mayfield.
32:05I think with Bryce Young, I just don't feel that way.
32:08Even if there's things that he's decent at, I don't look into him and go, this is what we can build the passing game on.
32:16Whereas I do think with Mayfield and Darnold, you can do that.
32:19I agree with that. And I think there are arguments on both sides of this.
32:23The argument for why we might see the best version we've ever seen at Bryce Young, I think, goes like this.
32:29Last year, but two years ago, there were no pass catchers on this team.
32:34It was an absolute wasteland. And even heading into last year, they have this idea of how the offense is going to
32:40be where they have Jalen Coker and T-Mac. And you have the combination of those two and the ability to move Coker
32:46around allows you to move T-Mac around. And you just have this more dynamic version of the passing game that you'd never had in Bryce's first couple years.
32:54And then immediately in training camp, Coker gets hurt.
32:57And so we never really get to see what the offense was supposed to look like for an extended period of time.
33:03And you could make an argument that even this year we won't get to see it because Brazel was supposed to give them even more flexibility.
33:11But I do think that with Coker and McMillan, and you've even seen the slot usage for McMillan in the preseason, this
33:17is the best collection of pass catchers the Panthers will have ever had by far coming into the year that Bryce Young has had.
33:24But add Jonathan Brooks to that mix as well, just in the sense that now having somebody to do some work after
33:31the catch and create some manufactured touches to where we had absolutely no one with that skill set previously, this is the
33:37best set of circumstances Bryce Young has ever walked into.
33:40And I think you could talk yourself into it being better and looking better because of that.
33:45But to Derek's point, how much better? And I think that when you're looking at some of these guys who have been
33:51highly drafted and that teams have moved on from, the downside, part of the downside to that is, well, what if he goes and succeeds somewhere else?
33:59That's what happened with Baker. That's what happened with Sam Darnold.
34:02And again, to Derek's point, I don't think the talent is at a level that you should be worried about what it's
34:08going to look like down the road if you let it get out of your building.
34:13And I think part of the thought process, Dave, with what's the right number, there's some element of that where it's like,
34:19all right, if you're spending 35 instead of 60 and you can use that surplus of 25 million to build the rest
34:26of your roster out, does that slightly close the gap between what his ceiling is and what another quarterback ceiling is?
34:32I would make an argument that the opportunity cost of not trying to seek out a better quarterback, that's what you lose.
34:38It's not about the money you're paying. It's about the fact that you're not trying to upgrade at that spot and you're
34:45pigeonholing yourself into such a specific version of what the offense has to be that it doesn't really matter what you're paying him.
34:51The fact that you've tabbed him as the starter is the biggest price that you're ultimately going to be paying.
34:57Now I'm just wondering, like, is the crossroads whether or not Bryce can play well enough to convince the Panthers not to
35:03fish in those waters for one more year? I mean, is that really what we're talking about?
35:08Yeah, I think so. Yeah. And be like, I think that's it for me personally.
35:13I, I don't realistically see a world where it to me in my eyes, he is worth extending or keeping around or being the long-term option.
35:20But I do think there is a world where he plays well enough.
35:24They win 10 games and the Panthers just kind of go, well, shit, what else are we going to do?
35:30And I, so I think that that world exists.
35:32And I think if he can do that again, that is going to get him paid.
35:37I just think really trying to thread a pretty fine needle to even arrive there.
35:41I will say though, even as the Bryce guy, let's say that happens.
35:45I would let Bryce play out the option before I worried about offering him a major deal, assuming he wants a lot
35:52of money, which I I'm guessing he would. So that, I mean, that is the beauty of picking up the option again
35:58in, in this landscape, $26 million just isn't that much money.
36:01And if it buys you one more year of time to figure your shit out, I think it's well worth it.
36:07It's about what you're paying the room. If you have to go out and I mean, let's, I don't know if Baker
36:14gets out of the building, but let's just use Baker as a stand and play here.
36:18You know what? Let's not even use Baker. Here's the quarterback I will use instead of Baker, because I think this is
36:25the guy that actually will be in the conversation for how much do you want to pay a mid-tier resurrected first round pick?
36:31Mack Jones. Mack Jones is, I think, the stand-in of this type of player for next year.
36:36If you give Mack Jones something that is like a slight downgrade or even the Sam Darnold contract in year one, you
36:42are paying him probably $12 million against the cap.
36:45You combine that with Bryce Young, it's $36 million.
36:48You're paying your quarterback room $36 million. You can live with that.
36:51That's, that's, I think that's the thought is that, you know, you're not like, there aren't free agent quarterbacks that you have
36:58to spend that much more on in the market.
37:00If you're going to go the veteran route because you're, you won nine games, you don't have an option to draft somebody.
37:06You're probably going to be paying your room still combined $35-ish million against the cap, which you could absolutely do for one
37:13single year before you move on from the Bryce contract.
37:16I will say it's, it's Baker and Mack as far as quarterbacks that have proven they can make some sort of difference.
37:22I mean, that's really what you're talking about next year as far as like guys that'll be free agents.
37:28So next year might not be. And Baker will be, or excuse me, Mack will be.
37:32Mack will be a free agent next year. Yes.
37:35Baker might get tagged or whatever. Yeah. Let's move on to our next guy here.
37:39I want to talk a little bit about Jalen Hurts heading into a new offense.
37:44No AJ Brown. The first part of this conversation, I wanted to reserve a little bit of it to clear up some
37:50of the stuff that was happening with the table discussion last week.
37:53The response that happened to that show, I don't want to ignore that.
37:57Like it was loud enough. And I think people ask the right questions that deserve like some sort of like self-reflection on our end of that.
38:05Where the thought was, why are you not willing to give the Eagles the benefit of the doubt?
38:10Why are you willing to give so many of the other teams the benefit of the doubt?
38:15And you look back at like the 2024 Eagles and their ability to win the Super Bowl and like why is the situation different?
38:22And I want to be very clear about why I have reservations about the Eagles.
38:26And I don't want to dance around it. I have doubts about the quality of the passing game and the consistency of the passing game.
38:33Point blank, period. Like I don't there's no reason to like sugarcoat that or like couch it in some other framing.
38:39If you look at the last 10 years since 2016, which is when we have next gen stats, there are two teams
38:46in the past 10 years that have won the Super Bowl with a passing success rate outside the top 10 that season.
38:52Tom Brady in 2020. So Tom Brady and Jalen Hurts in 2024.
38:56The Eagles that year when they won the Super Bowl in 2024 ran the ball on 54.7% of their plays during the playoffs.
39:02There are two teams that have won the Super Bowl since 2005 that have cracked 53%.
39:07The other team is the 2005 Steelers. I mean, so it's been even the same 20 years since the team ran the
39:13ball of that much in the playoffs and won the Super Bowl.
39:17I think the way that a Jalen Hurts led offense won the Super Bowl was incredibly specific with the best offense in the league.
39:24And I have my doubts in a worse set of circumstances.
39:27If this was happening with an average supporting cast or a supporting cast that we thought was getting better, then maybe I
39:33think you could talk yourself into them not needing that level of specificity to do it again.
39:38The circumstances are worse. He did that with the best, most explosive running game in the league, arguably, and A.J.
39:44Brown and Devontae Smith as the receivers on that team.
39:47The environment is worse now than it was then.
39:49And so that's why I land where I land.
39:52Again, two teams since 2016 had a passing game that was outside the top 10 in success rate.
39:57The Seahawks were third last season. The EPA per dropback numbers were bad because there were some turnovers.
40:02But in terms of consistency, they were one of the most consistent passing offenses in the league for a good majority of the year.
40:09And that is where, to me, there is a gap between the Eagles and everybody else.
40:14And I think the two teams, as it relates to the table conversation, where you could argue that there's a double standard,
40:20would be the Broncos and the Texans. I have the same reservations about the Broncos.
40:25Yes. The quality and consistency of the passing game.
40:27The difference with the Broncos is I think you can make an argument that the environment there is improving.
40:33They've added Jalen Waddell to this thing. You have a quarterback going into year three.
40:37I can talk myself into that being on a positive trajectory because I think Bo Nix's best environment is the one he's currently walking into.
40:44The other one would be the Texans. And I think the Texans have a chance to be a special defense.
40:50And the bar that you need to clear offensively when you have a special all-time defense is different to me than the
40:57bar that a normal offense has to clear in order to win the Super Bowl.
41:01And so I just wanted to have a little bit of clarity around that conversation because I don't think I was clear
41:07enough when we did it last week. And that, to me, is like the starting point of the Jalen Hurts discussion is
41:14that even in great circumstances, they have not been a consistent enough passing game for me to consistently feel good about.
41:20It's just a narrow pathway for him to get there.
41:23And I know that people will probably rebuttal and say, well, they got there in 20, was it 2022 as well?
41:29They had a 42% success rate in the playoffs in 2022 as a passing game.
41:3348 to 50 is typically where you need to go to be a top 10 offense.
41:38And that was in 2022? Yes. Yeah, yeah. Like, he did not play all that.
41:42I mean, he played pretty well in the Super Bowl, but up until that run, they were not all that good.
41:48And I would also say, like, the offensive line now, compared to where it was in either 2024 or 2022, I think you just have more questions.
41:56Like, Lane Johnson is older. He's been a lot more banged up.
41:59Landon Dickerson, I don't know if he'll ever be as healthy as you want him to be.
42:04So I think you have some questions there. I think right guard, I mean, has always been a little bit up and
42:11down, especially even in 2024, they got lucky with Becton.
42:14But I think right guard is a little bit of an issue for them now.
42:18And I would also say, again, compared to 2024, you don't have A.J.
42:22Brown. And I know that last year was weird, but, like, A.J.
42:25Brown's a really, really good player. And the other difference I would say, too, is that with 2022 and 2024, the offensive
42:32coordinators, even if we didn't think that they were necessarily superstars going into that job or at the time, they'd done it before.
42:38They'd done the job. And, like, with Kellen Moore, we'd had some proof of concept that, like, okay, he kind of knows what he's doing here.
42:46We just don't know a Sean Mannion. Maybe he's incredible.
42:49But I just think it's harder to, like, go into it with the, like, okay, this is stabilized sense that we could have had in 2024.
42:56I think it's just harder to get there in 2026.
42:59To bring it back to this conversation, when you've seen all these other structural changes with quarterbacks around the league over the
43:05last four or five years, Dak, to me, last year was a perfect example of this, where they had a very specific
43:12way that they played offense going back to, like, the Kellen Moore stuff in Dallas.
43:16And they carried over so much of that into the Mike McCarthy era.
43:20When they hired Brian Schottenheimer and Clayton Adams, they started doing more stuff that just made things easier on the quarterback.
43:26And the argument was that even if we can put all this stuff on the quarterback, this is a way to make
43:32things a little bit easier on him and get a really good version of him.
43:37And I think that's been the case with a lot of these guys.
43:40Joe Burrow were having that conversation. I think Mahomes were having that conversation right now.
43:45The Crossroads thing with Jalen Hurts is it's the exact same thought process.
43:49Can he do it? Yeah. Like, can we get to a place where taking some of the load off him in this
43:55sort of offense gets to, like, it gets the offense to a world where it does feel a little bit more adaptable
44:01and a little bit more dangerous, even without that massive talent advantage that they had when they were at their best two years ago.
44:08And that's the question. Like, is this enough if you make things a little bit easier on everybody for us to get
44:15a version of this quarterback that can keep this team really dangerous and competitive?
44:19And I think that's the crossroad moment. And I don't know the answer to that.
44:23I think the other thing that I would bring up and why I'm quicker to believe in the Eagles than you guys
44:29are is I am just more willing to give the benefit of the doubt to things that I've seen happen before.
44:35And ironically, of course, so much of it's going to hinge on Sean Mannion, which is something we can't know.
44:41We know how bad this has been when the wrong guy is calling the plays for this offense.
44:46But I'm not willing to give up on the things that the Eagles have that work well so quickly, mainly the offensive
44:53line and the running game achieving a higher ceiling than it did last year.
44:57And I've said before, I know AJ Brown's not there.
45:00I think the world of Devontae Smith and I think this passing game can operate at a good level behind Devontae Smith
45:06with everybody else sort of filtering in behind him.
45:09I really do think he is that caliber of receiver.
45:12It's going to hinge on Jalen Hurts playing better than he did last year, obviously.
45:16And funnily enough, I'm not even a big believer in Jalen Hurts, but I am a believer in the infrastructure that the
45:22Eagles have built over the last four years. And if we're going back to the table conversation, a defense that I just
45:29have the utmost faith in to make all of that right, even when they're not clicking.
45:33I've seen this team, A, look amazing, and B, win a lot of games when they don't look amazing.
45:39And that carries a lot of weight for me, even in a year of transition.
45:43I think where I'm at with it is that we haven't seen him do this before.
45:48If the offense is structurally different, I don't think that we've seen him do this before.
45:52Because I think what we've seen him do before to me is extremely specific.
45:56And that's what I was going to say. I think that across every generation of the league, that there are always a
46:03handful of quarterbacks who can be very productive and very good for a five-year period in a very specific way.
46:09Jimmy G was this. Tua was this. There are guys that like Carson Wentz, being what he was at the top of
46:15the RPO revolution, you can kind of make guys really productive over very short periods until the league catches up where they
46:21need to change whatever it's going to be. This has to be that moment for him because I brought it up before.
46:28It's kind of what it was with Lamar Jackson whenever they brought in Todd Monken, and I think in 2022.
46:34It had to be different. He needed to grow.
46:36He needed to change. And I think that this moment for Jalen Hurts is more akin to that than some of the other things that we've talked about.
46:44And so I think if he can do it, he has the talent to do it.
46:49I just think that, again, he's been a very specific player up to this point in his career.
46:54And I think some of what it would require for this offense to work where it's throwing more over the middle.
47:00It's a little bit more under center play action.
47:03It's stuff that requires pocket presence and vision over the middle and trigger over the middle that I just haven't seen from
47:09him consistently that he needs to prove to me.
47:12And so I think it's just it's a lot of stuff that I haven't seen before that I would like to see from him.
47:19Yeah, and I think that's where I land with it.
47:22And it's like I feel like, again, just kind of like stepping back and trying to acknowledge and examine why the conversation
47:28happened the way that it happened and some of the things that we just like treated as givens.
47:33The idea that we're in a more defense first place or you can lean on defense more to be a championship caliber team to me is real, right?
47:41Like there are pathways there that it didn't feel like there was four or five years ago.
47:46But again, like you still have to have a consistent passing offense as part of this.
47:51Like I'd still rather bet on the consistent passing offense.
47:54That is a more prominent trait and a more consistent trait of the teams that ultimately win the Super Bowl.
47:59Like the Eagles like, well, we've seen them do this before.
48:03We saw them do this in a more specific way than any Super Bowl champion has done in the last decade.
48:09And I just don't know how possible that is again.
48:12Like he needs to be a different player than he has ever been before for them to get back to a place
48:18where they can win the Super Bowl. And I don't know if that's possible.
48:22Jalen Hurts' best season as a passer from a success rate standpoint was a 2024 season when he threw for 2,900 yards.
48:28Like it just, it was such a specific type of offense.
48:32And I wonder how, whether they can continue to do that.
48:35That's it. And the crossroads moment is he needs to be a different player in terms of like what is asked of
48:41him within the offense than he's ever been before.
48:44Simply because the offense is so drastically different. Like I just don't think that's a controversial thing to think or say coming into the season about him.
48:52The interesting question for me with Jalen Hurts is it's easy to get enamored with the way Philly does business.
48:57And like we, you know, I talk all the time about how far out they are in front of these things.
49:03They traded Carson Wentz and took on the $34 million cap hit when they felt like it was time.
49:09And that paved the way for Jalen Hurts. I just wonder how short the leash really is.
49:14Like how, how realistic is it to talk about this as like a make or break year for Jalen Hurts?
49:20Cause like, if you look at the numbers, they can move that deal if they want to without it ruining, without it ruining their lives.
49:27But are they going to be that quick to do it?
49:30Like, let's just say this year's kind of middling and frustrating and the bottom doesn't drop out, but it's not great.
49:36Is that enough to prompt wholesale change for most teams in the NFL?
49:40I would say no, but Philadelphia, I don't know.
49:43That's kind of their calling card. Yeah. I feel like he's not playing for his job this year.
49:48Obviously, I, at least I don't think even if Philly is a little bit more willing to do some of that stuff willy nilly than some other teams.
49:56I do think though, that if this year is pretty middling and he's 20th in QBR or whatever, and the team only
50:02wins nine games and maybe they get bombed in the wild card, whatever.
50:06I think if it's that sort of season, I do think next year he's playing for his job.
50:11I think this year you would have to be like truly a disaster for them to even think about that.
50:17But I do think that if he doesn't change and he's not an improved player, I think next year they'll go into
50:23it like, okay, you're 30 now and you're the same player that you have been for five years.
50:29This is kind of, this is the make or break.
50:31And so that's kind of where I'm at with it.
50:34And again, I think that's the, the, the, the crossroads becomes the urgency that we feel after this season.
50:40And I do think that that's exactly where I sit with Jalen Hurts.
50:44There's a reason that they change so many elements of the offense.
50:47They know that they need to be the sort of team and the sort of offense they've never been before.
50:53And I think the, how much of that he has to carry is more than it's ever been in a world without
50:59AJ Brown and whether he can do that, I think becomes the central question.
51:03Let's take one more quick break and then come back and chat about a couple more of these guys.
51:09All right. So no one accuses me of just playing favorites here.
51:12The next guy that we're going to talk about that I also think is at a crossroads coming into the season is Justin Herbert.
51:19I mean, this is the first time he's had a play caller where everyone is like, this rocks.
51:24This is a, this is a, what is your excuse now?
51:28If this season does not go well for Justin Herbert.
51:30And I think, and that is the, like, that's the response that like the Justin Herbert haters will take on.
51:36And I think they will be more than justified in approaching it that way, depending how this goes.
51:41I think that's the thing is that. I think a lot of people already kind of view him in the like, oh, he can't do it.
51:49And if X, Y, and Z. But I do think that assuming the offensive line is relatively healthy and goes into the postseason fine.
51:56Which start it's the chargers. I don't know. Yeah.
51:59Given that, and like, given that Mike McDaniel, again, like, he's like, you know, Kellen Moore has been there before and he's fine.
52:05But like, Mike McDaniel is one of the dudes.
52:08This would be the time that it's like, okay, if they can't put it together now, I think some of the criticism starts to be legit.
52:15And again, I don't think that this is a spot where it's like, if it's not perfect, they're going to think about moving on.
52:22Like, I think there's nobody in the building that is even sort of thinking about moving on from him until he breaks and shatters.
52:29But I think it does just, this is one where it shifts the narrative of how willing are people to defend him
52:36as like the fifth best quarterback in the NFL.
52:38Yes. This is a narrative. A narrative. This is a narrative.
52:41Yeah. Yes. Yes. I can buy that. Oh, yeah.
52:44Justin Herbert's going to be the quarterback of the chargers.
52:47It's more about how quick are people willing to defend him and how much is he willing to get?
52:52How much are people willing to give him the benefit of the doubt?
52:56Because if you were somebody who wants to argue for Justin Herbert, the easiest place you could consistently go over the last
53:03couple of years is like the two guys that were his offensive coordinators previously.
53:07It was Joe Lombardi and then Greg Roman, both of whom lost their jobs last year as offensive coordinators.
53:12Like Mike McDaniel was a former head coach who was in a completely different tier when it comes to the results he has gotten from non MVP quarterbacks.
53:20Like Greg Roman with Lamar Jackson, they reached very high highs in 2019.
53:24The highs were not that far off from what Mike McDaniel was doing with Tua Tonga-Vailoa.
53:29And so this is just a different thing. And I think that's where people are going to turn if Justin Herbert hits
53:35any sort of stretch where it doesn't look great this year.
53:38It's like, all right, we gave him Mike McDaniel.
53:41Now what? Like what else does it? What else do you guys want who think this guy walks on water?
53:47You know what this made me think of? And I don't want to hear any bullshit about favoritism because I wanted the Eagles to be at the table.
53:55So it has nothing to do with that. But when I hear this, I just think about the fact that Stafford threw
54:01for 45,000 yards and 300 touchdowns in Detroit and didn't win his first playoff game until he got to the Rams.
54:07And like that, if you like, if you don't want to hear that, that's fine.
54:11And if you think Matthew Stafford underperformed in Detroit, that's also fine.
54:15Doesn't change the fact that he's really good. Maybe the crossroads should be L.A.
54:19Chargers. Harness your quarterback before he's too old and wants a trade out of town.
54:23It's not to say that we should absolve him of anything.
54:26And you can levy all the criticism you want at Justin Herbert.
54:30That's fine. I even I'll take it back. I got receipts, man.
54:33I had Stafford over Herbert before last year even started.
54:36But I still think at the end of the day, he's a quarterback that you should be able to build a good team around.
54:43And if you can't do it over enough years, I just think it says more about you than him.
54:49But maybe I am. Maybe I am. I am excuse making, though.
54:52People like there are people that talk about him like he's Jesus Christ.
54:56Just like at a certain point, like I think that's what needs to happen.
55:00And I I'm pointing the finger at myself here as much as anybody.
55:04I think I've been guilty of some of this stuff.
55:07And I think that's why I'm trying to bring a little self-reflection to this process.
55:11When I look at Herbert specifically and we look at last year, here's here's what I think has happened.
55:17When there was a stretch with Lombardi where all I wanted from Justin Herbert was more aggressiveness, a little bit of a looser play style.
55:24Like you are a freak. I want to feel the physical anomaly that you are playing this position and what you can bring to it.
55:31And there was a stretch at points over the last two seasons where you did start to feel that a little bit.
55:37He was scrambling a little bit more. He was pushing the ball downfield a little bit more.
55:42But last year is the game I would point to that I think is really telling example of this.
55:48The Philly game. They don't survive that game with a different sort of quarterback than him.
55:52But I think him needing to play that way last year where he's scrambling so much.
55:57He's taking off all the time. He's trying to carry all of it.
56:01Led to some really bad habits when he had to start playing quarterback in a normal way as we got into the playoffs.
56:08He's never properly calibrated all of this, all the exact combination and in the right ratios that I think he needs to
56:14in order to sustain success as the best possible version of himself.
56:17I don't think that's really happened. No, it hasn't.
56:20And I would kind of like to Dave's point, I think that that's often the reality for guys who are playing on
56:26imperfect franchises that are supremely talented or like, you know, don't strike when the iron is hot.
56:31Like, I think Lamar Jackson's journey was a little bit different because they came into the league and like they just found
56:38this thing that nobody else was doing. And I don't think that Justin Herbert has quite had that.
56:43So he's had years where he's really good at this and then years where he's really good at this.
56:48And now the scrambling is he's better at it.
56:51But now there's games where he's forced to do it too much like the Philly game.
56:56And then even the playoff game this year, like New England just blitzed the shit out of them and they couldn't pick up anything.
57:03And he was by the end of it, they were like, we can't call anything but let him just run, basically.
57:09And so I think that had led to some bad habits.
57:12And so I think you worry about that. But today's other point about Stafford, he goes to the Rams and obviously I
57:18think becomes a different player but is also allowed to be the best version of himself.
57:23I think what you're hoping for here if you're the Chargers is that you're bringing the Rams to Justin Herbert.
57:29Exactly. You are bringing Mike McDaniel and that like magic to him.
57:32And so I do think that there's a world where Justin or Jim Harbaugh got a lot of the, hey, can you just play looser?
57:39Can you scramble more? Can you just chuck it down the field more?
57:43I think he has gotten that out of him.
57:46The offensive infrastructure and offensive line play just has not been to the level where that's gotten the most fruits that you can out of it.
57:53I do think that Mike McDaniel can be the final like, okay, it's stable around you now.
57:58Go do it, big man. Go be the fourth most productive quarterback in the league, whatever it's going to be.
58:04I like this take at the end of the day because I just, I don't know how much you're going to change
58:10my opinion that Justin Herbert is a supremely talented quarterback.
58:13But if Mike McDaniel can't unlock another layer of explosiveness and consistency, then I don't think it changes how talented he is.
58:19But it can certainly change where he needs to land when we have these types of offseason conversations.
58:25That's exactly it. And what Derek just said to me is exactly right.
58:28And I believe this can happen. Like, I do think these are the circumstances under which this can happen.
58:34But if it doesn't, then I do think that we have to, there's some revisiting that has to happen.
58:39And so I'm, I am willing to take the optimistic view on this.
58:43We're doing the AFC West preview first. And like, I'm excited to watch this.
58:47You know, I'm excited to have that conversation. But I think that if we get to the end of the year and
58:54that calibration still feels off, even if the offensive line play is imperfect, I think the environmental considerations here are very different than they have been.
59:01And so I think that is why it feels a little bit different for Justin Herbert heading into this season than it has for a little while.
59:09So, all right, two more guys we wanted to hit here fairly quickly.
59:13Let's talk a little bit about Michael Penix and what his crossroads moment potentially looks like this year.
59:18Derek, I think this was your suggestion that you want to talk about Penix.
59:22Why did you feel like Michael Penix fit this exercise?
59:25Well, he's actually interesting to me from a lot of the other young quarterbacks where I think, I think with so many
59:31young quarterbacks, we're just like, we want to make the argument that like whatever flashes we see it, like it means he's good.
59:38I actually think or it means that he can be really good down the line.
59:42I think Michael Penix has enough obvious flaws that it's hard for me to see him ever really like developing into a top 12 guy.
59:50I think you have the injury history. It's pretty immobile and inflexible.
59:53Doesn't really have touch on the ball. All of that being said, I'm pretty confident he's like a mature NFL quarterback.
59:59Like he has a process with which he plays the game.
60:02He's willing to make these deep and aggressive throws outside the numbers.
60:06He gets to his check down really quickly. He's a guy who doesn't really take that many negative plays.
60:11Like he doesn't get sacked, doesn't throw all that many interceptions.
60:14Like I think he has a pretty clear process with which he plays the game and even production wise.
60:20And I know that he's throwing to Drake London.
60:23Kyle Pitts is good. Bajon Robinson, all this stuff.
60:25His numbers production wise have been better than some of the other guys that we're talking about.
60:30Like some of these other guys at Crossroads. Like, I mean, just statistically, like he's significantly better than Bryce Young was.
60:36And really, like compared to last year, he's not like that dramatically far off from what CJ Stroud has been over the past couple of years.
60:44If you put the numbers together cumulatively, like in terms of EPA per dropback.
60:48So I just think he's in a spot where he's going to be fighting for, is this a guy we want to commit to long term?
60:55And I think doing that with a new staff is always tricky.
60:59Like it's not the regime necessarily drafted you. It's not the coaching staff who drafted you.
61:03But I do think that there's a chance that he shows enough, he flashes enough where he's a guy who maybe three
61:10years from now bounces around a little bit and stumbles into another starting position.
61:14And I think whether or not he flashes enough for that to be something that he can actually hold on to the next couple of years.
61:21That to me is the Crossroads. I'd like to, Robert, take this opportunity to issue a little bit of a mea culpa.
61:28Because when we've talked about the Falcons over the course of training camp, I've been the one following the tea leaves and
61:34the breadcrumbs and saying, yeah, I mean, this is Tua Tungavailoa all the way.
61:38And Michael Penix might not ever get that opportunity.
61:41And I had a lot of confidence that might be the case because you can kind of hide a quarterback in the
61:47preseason, even if he's not very good. And Tua has been that bad that you can't really hide him in the preseason, which is a terrible sign.
61:55And it's not that I thought Tua was going to be great in Atlanta.
61:59I thought you might at least be able to get a month into the season before we started having a conversation about making a switch.
62:06And sitting here on August 24th, I'm legitimately curious if Tua even makes it to week one.
62:11That's how bad it's been. So maybe I wasn't giving Michael Penix enough credit for having a shot to flip the script.
62:17I think he'll make it to week one. I think he'll make it to week one for two reasons.
62:23One, day to day, it has not looked as bad as it did in the preseason games.
62:28And I think that's worth weighing, even if the preseason games were bad.
62:32But more importantly, Michael Penix just got cleared. Yeah, I know.
62:35Like yesterday. I don't think there is. He's done a lot of like seven on seven work, but he's done none like no teamwork.
62:42And so I just don't know if based purely on like feel and how often he's been out there, if he's going
62:48to be ready to play by the time the season starts.
62:51That being said, how quickly it happens two, three weeks into the season.
62:55Michael Penix is going to play this year. Mm hmm.
62:58We are going to see Michael Penix this year.
63:01The only circumstances in which we would not see Michael Penix this year is if Tua just lights the world on fire at the start of the season.
63:09How confident are we in that happening? None confident.
63:11None. Yeah, I was trying to look for the words for it, but none is good.
63:16That'll suffice. Michael Penix is going to play. And whether he plays well enough to stave off them drafting a quarterback next
63:22year, them seeking out another quarterback next year. I think that also becomes part of the conversation.
63:27Like Michael Penix is crossroads to me is he's going to play this year.
63:31By the time we get to the end of the year, he is he done well enough where when we talk about
63:38the Falcons quarterback situation next season, it's Michael Penix and some token competition over Michael Penix happens to be on the roster
63:44and they drafted a guy in the top 10.
63:47Mm hmm. I think that's what it comes down to.
63:49Yeah, I don't know how confident I am in him being a long term positive answer.
63:54I think I'm kind of with Derek on that.
63:57Like, I think there I think he'll have a career.
64:00I think he'll get another shot at one point, whether he's the Falcons answer.
64:04I don't know the answer. I'm not sure about that.
64:07But I think whether he's in their potential plans for next year or even as part of a competition, that to me
64:13feels like the most important thing that can happen to him.
64:16And I even think there's a world where he plays OK this year and just maybe depending on where the Falcons are
64:22at draft order wise, like they still take a quarterback anyway and move on from him.
64:27I think the biggest crossroads is like in two years when he's off the team and he's, you know, not signed a new deal with them.
64:35Are people interested that he's signing somewhere and being like, maybe this is a competition or he's really high level backup like
64:41a Jacoby Brissette or Joe Flacco or just just nobody care where he signed.
64:45And we just like forget about it until he plays in the preseason.
64:49That to me is kind of like the difference of what he's able to show this year.
64:54Is he intriguing trade bait if the Falcons are in position to draft a quarterback next year?
64:59Right. Like if they draft. It doesn't really matter what quarterback is.
65:02If they draft someone at seventh overall, do you want exactly do you want to trade Michael Penix or is it just like who cares?
65:09Like it doesn't matter. Is he one of the names we throw out and we're talking about Mac Jones and Baker next
65:16spring as if you need a side road answer?
65:18Is he one of those guys? I think that is a good outcome for Michael Penix wherever it happens to be.
65:24Last one here that we wanted to hit. This is a pretty obvious one.
65:28Malik Willis is a quarterback hitting a crossroads this year.
65:31Talking about teams that may be in a position to draft a quarterback and whether they are speaks to what we saw
65:38from this guy over the course of the season.
65:40Derek Malik Willis may be the best example of this.
65:43Yeah, I mean a lot of times these guys who are coming to the league as backups or you know, mid and
65:50late round picks and spend a lot of time on the bench.
65:53And then get signed in this way where like you can go and be the guy.
65:58You might only get one opportunity to do that.
66:00You might only get your one chance. And I think that this reminds me a little bit of two different scenarios.
66:06It reminds me of like Matt Flynn kind of getting this chance.
66:10And it reminds me of Tyrod Taylor getting this chance.
66:13You know, he had been with the Ravens for a very long time and then goes over to the Bills.
66:19And the circumstances of the contract were different. Like Malik Willis is getting like starter money, whereas Tyrod signed like a one year, $3 million deal.
66:26But there wasn't very serious competition when he signed that deal.
66:29And then he immediately was able to take over that job.
66:32And he wasn't great, but he played like mid-level quarterback play.
66:36And they immediately extended him after that season. And so I think that's what you're hoping for if you're Malik Willis.
66:42And obviously I think it's going to be hard to show that because it's not a great roster, right?
66:47But I think he's at least going to have the chance to be alive and make some plays because that offensive line will keep him upright.
66:55To be alive? Listen, some of these guys signed deals on bad teams and they're just getting nuked.
67:00And I don't think that that will be the case with Miami and Malik Willis.
67:04Like the offensive line has some talent. Like I think the left tackle is promising.
67:09You draft their first round guard. The center is about as good as anybody in football.
67:13Savanaya, I think, showed some stuff last year. Like the offensive line should be quality.
67:18And Devon Achan's a good running back. So the pass catchers, whatever.
67:21But like there's enough here that he might flash something.
67:24And I think that maybe there's a world where he plays fine enough.
67:28They still get the third pick. They still take a quarterback.
67:31But if he plays well enough, even in those scenarios, maybe a year or two from now, if somebody wants to trade
67:37for him or give him another chance. Like this, I think, kind of is his audition to be like, I am good enough to do this.
67:45I just wonder what the pass catching situation looks like.
67:48Like the idea that it's Malik Washington, Caleb. Like Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell.
67:52I think there's reason to be excited about what we saw in the preseason and Chris Bell just as a prospect.
67:58But those are, we're talking about third round rookies that are going to be prominently featured as part of this.
68:04Like Greg Dolchich. That's the question I have. I'm honestly excited to watch it.
68:08Like I'm curious about what the Dolphins offense is going to look like.
68:11But even if the offensive line is good, I think there are enough potential concerns with the pass catchers where this thing
68:18could still look pretty ugly over the course of the entire year.
68:21And that's my main concern, which sounds bleak. I am excited to watch the Dolphins.
68:26I think they're a legitimately interesting team. But Malik Willis could play pretty well.
68:30And to Derek's point, they could still have a big, big draft pick that, you know, you just have to take a
68:36quarterback when you're picking that high in the draft.
68:39Have you seen the defensive personnel? That's what I'm saying.
68:42Even if the offense is good. Malik Willis could be solid and they could still be taking a quarterback very highly in the draft.
68:48I think it's a, this contract doesn't tie the Dolphins to anything.
68:52And so I feel for Malik Willis a little bit.
68:55And again, I don't think this is necessarily about him being the Dolphins long-term starting quarterback.
68:59I just think that if he can play well enough, will somebody else want to give you the chance?
69:05Because I think, again, sometimes the backups don't get it.
69:08Whereas guys who are like top 10 draft picks just get chance after chance.
69:12I mean, again, how many chances did Sam Darnold get?
69:15Justin Fields was not really good at any point and got paid three different times.
69:19Well, I mean, two if you count, if you don't count him being drafted.
69:23But two different teams paid him to be the starter.
69:26He was also traded for this year. Yes, like I just, I don't know if Malik Willis gets that if it doesn't go well enough.
69:33But I can see the world where he flashes enough.
69:36This team still wins two games to draft somebody else.
69:39But somebody is like, well, you have Arch Manning.
69:42Can we get, can we get the other guy?
69:44I think that that's $20 million base salary. I get that is more than doable if you're a team looking for an off ramp.
69:51And so I think it's, we have some names that could make next spring's quarterback carousel look a lot more interesting than it currently looks.
69:59And I think that those would be positive outcomes for these crossroads players that we're talking about.
70:03All right. That is all we've got for today.
70:06Like I mentioned at the top, we will be back tomorrow with the AFC West preview.
70:11Kicking off the division previews. We'll have one a day for the next eight days on this show only interrupted by us
70:17having our last training camp notebook on Saturday with the Beat Riders, which I'm about to go record with Matt Schneidman right
70:23now, which is why I have to go. But we will be back.
70:27We will be here with the division previews tomorrow.
70:30Looking forward to it for now. That's all we got.
70:33Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon.
70:35Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.
70:41If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating.
70:45We'll see you next time.
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