2026 AFC West Preview

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 48 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Aug 26, 2026

Published

Wed, August 26, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Cyrus AllenJaylen WaddleJustin HerbertKenneth Walker IIIRJ HarveyBo NixCourtland SuttonJ.K. DobbinsMarvin MimsPat BryantPatrick MahomesQuentin JohnstonRashee RiceTre Harris

Player analysis

Player insights

Bo Nix

NegativeProjection67:56

Bo Nix is coming off two ankle surgeries, raising concerns about his mobility, which is central to his game. Additionally, he struggled against zone coverage last year, ranking poorly in success rate and explosive play rate compared to his peers.

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Courtland Sutton

PositiveUsage92:32

Cortland Sutton is expected to benefit from the gravity created by Jalen Waddle, likely finding himself open on deep routes.

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Cyrus Allen

NegativeRole30:50

The source expresses skepticism regarding Cyrus Allen as a solution for the Chiefs' passing game issues, noting that relying on a 180-pound fifth-round pick to fix a major roster deficiency is not a sound strategy.

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NegativeDepth Chart31:17

Cyrus Allen, a fifth-round pick, has become a focal point of training camp buzz. However, the source notes that the team's reliance on a fifth-round rookie as a key contributor and the panic surrounding his recent practice injury are indicative of the overall weakness in the Chiefs' receiver room.

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J.K. Dobbins

NegativeInjury60:58

J.K. Dobbins remains a key part of the Broncos' backfield rotation due to his efficiency, but he is currently dealing with durability issues in camp and has a history of missing time, despite his promise to play a full 17-game season.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveRole57:33

The source expects Jalen Waddle to significantly improve the Broncos' offense by providing a deep threat that forces defenses to respect the vertical game, potentially fixing their poor starting field position and lack of explosive scoring drives.

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PositiveValue88:21

Jalen Waddle is considered a top-15 wide receiver who brings elite explosive playmaking ability to the Broncos, ranking highly in EPA per target and yards after catch over the last four years.

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Justin Herbert

PositiveProjection41:58

The source is optimistic about Justin Herbert's potential in Mike McDaniel's offense, suggesting that McDaniel's ability to design effective passing games could help Herbert reach a new level of production.

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NegativeUsage55:02

The source notes that Justin Herbert is undergoing a process this offseason to adjust his play style, specifically learning to release the ball with more anticipation rather than waiting to see receivers come open, a hallmark of McDaniel's previous systems.

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveUsage2:03

The source highlights Kenneth Walker as a transformative addition for the Chiefs, who struggled historically with explosive runs. Walker recorded 42 explosive runs in 2025, equaling the combined total of all Chiefs running backs over the previous two years. He also logged 10 runs of 20+ yards last season, tying for third in the league. The Chiefs plan to utilize him in an under-center scheme, where his explosive run rate is double that of the Chiefs' previous rate, aiming to move away from their reliance on shotgun runs.

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NegativeUsage32:03

While the source acknowledges the excitement surrounding Kenneth Walker's potential for explosive runs, they question whether he alone can fix the Chiefs' offensive limitations on third-and-long situations.

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Marvin Mims

NegativeRole90:31

Marvin Mims is a capable screen receiver for the Broncos, but lacks the vertical 'glance route' explosiveness that Jalen Waddle brings to the offense.

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Pat Bryant

PositiveUsage92:38

Pat Bryant is expected to see more open opportunities due to the defensive attention drawn by Jalen Waddle.

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Patrick Mahomes

NegativeInjury32:20

The source highlights that Patrick Mahomes is entering the season coming off a torn ACL, which is a critical factor for the Chiefs' offensive outlook and their ability to overcome a weak receiving corps.

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Quentin Johnston

PositiveRole80:42

Quentin Johnston is projected to fill a role similar to Jameson Williams, utilizing his speed on drag routes and runways to generate explosive plays.

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Rashee Rice

NegativeBust30:16

The source expresses significant concern regarding Rasheed Rice's availability and performance, noting he spent the spring rehabbing in jail. There is uncertainty about whether he has lost a step due to injury or his legal situation, which contributes to the fear that the Chiefs could possess a bottom-five wide receiver unit.

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RJ Harvey

NegativeUsage60:33

RJ Harvey is viewed as an explosive player who scored 12 touchdowns last year, but the team wants to increase his passing game involvement; however, there are concerns about his pass protection and occasional lack of vision as a runner.

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PositiveUsage93:27

RJ Harvey is expected to find more space in the middle of the field as linebackers drop back to respect Jalen Waddle's deep speed.

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Tre Harris

PositiveBreakout80:48

Trey Harris is highlighted for his vertical explosion, contributing to the potential for a dynamic Chargers offense.

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Xavier Worthy

NegativeInjury31:01

Xavier Worthy is flagged as a concern due to his slight 165-pound frame and ongoing injury issues. He is currently not participating in contact drills, and his health is a major question mark for a Chiefs receiving corps that lacks depth.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,348

0:00Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays.

0:03Division previews kicking off today. We are starting with the AFC West.

0:06It's not wasting any time. Let's get right into it.

0:09Me, Dave and Derek previewing the AFC West right now.

0:11Kicking off one of my favorite stretches of the entire year in the NFL calendar and on the Athletic Football Show calendar.

0:18The division previews start today starting things off with the AFC West.

0:21Just a disclaimer at the beginning of all of these.

0:24I'm going in divisional odds order. I'm how we're wondering what your methodology was here.

0:28Yes, I took my notes in order of finish.

0:30I did. So you have to win. Okay, good to know that I felt that was just a safe way to do things.

0:37Maybe it's disrespectful to the teams that won last year, but that's how we're going to do all of these shows.

0:43So let's kick things off with the Kansas City Chiefs.

0:46Our preview for the 2026 Kansas City Chiefs. They're offseason in 60 seconds.

0:49Eric Biannimi back as the offensive coordinator signed Kenneth Walker, Kairos Tonga, Loehy Gilman, Kader Kohou in free agency.

0:55Traded Trent McDuffie to the Rams, lost Brian Cook and Leo Chanel in free agency.

0:59Drafted Monster Delaney and Peter Woods in the first round, RJ Mason Thomas in the second round.

1:03We're going to kick off every single one of these previews with a conversation about what we are most excited to watch

1:10this season when it comes to these teams. We'll have to pick something for all of them, even if they're teams where

1:16maybe it's a little bit harder to find an answer.

1:19Derek, what are you most excited to watch this year with the Kansas City Chiefs?

1:23I mean, for me, it's just as simple as like this is a team that for years has not had an explosive

1:29runner and really has struggled to gain explosive plays.

1:31And they just signed Kenneth Walker to a huge deal.

1:34And that's kind of his whole deal. And I think I've said it a number of different points this offseason.

1:40You know, I think sometimes it's hard to figure out exactly how much a running back's value is going to like cascade to the rest of the team.

1:48But I think in the case of the Kansas City Chiefs, where they were so like historically bad at generating these field

1:54flipping runs and getting these 15, 20 plus yard gains.

1:57That I think bringing in a player like Kenneth Walker, where he obviously gives that to you.

2:01It's pretty easy to see how that actually adds something to this offense and where it doesn't just feel like every single

2:08play is them trying to squeeze four yards out of everything in the way that they can.

2:12And I think if they can just get one of these field flipping plays a game on top of what I think

2:18might be a more aggressive and potentially volatile defense, which we'll end up talking about at some point.

2:23I do think that that almost kind of gets them back to the formula that was working for them in like 2019,

2:302020, where they were more explosive on offense. And the defense kind of worked because they were like, we're just going to

2:36get explosive plays and sack the other team and get turnovers and give our offense as many chances as they can.

2:42So I just really believe in what Ken Walker is going to do here.

2:46I'm just going to offer up some stats to agree with Derek.

2:49Kenneth Walker had 42 explosives in the 2025 season, combining regular season and playoffs explosive runs.

2:53All Chiefs running backs combined regular season and playoffs over the last two years had 44 explosive runs.

2:58So Kenneth Walker's equaling two years of Chiefs production last year alone.

3:02All Chiefs running backs over the last two years had 10 combined runs of 20 plus yards.

3:07Kenneth Walker had 10 of those last season alone, tying Jameer Gibbs for third in the league.

3:11Walker's this one actually really surprised me his 32 runs of 20 plus yards since he got into the NFL trail only

3:17Derek Henry, Saquon Barkley and Jameer Gibbs. Fourth in the league in 20 plus yard runs over the last four years.

3:23The Chiefs haven't had a guy like this in a minute.

3:26And even like, even if you include receivers, obviously we know Xavier Worthy is a fast guy, a proven consistent commodity of

3:33this caliber just hasn't been a factor for the Chiefs on a regular basis since Tyreek Hill.

3:37I would even say like the year Rasheed Rice was really good.

3:41I'd still think Kenneth Walker is more explosive than that.

3:43So I'm excited to see the Chiefs with a genuine threat that can help Patrick Mahomes.

3:48They had one running back run of 20 plus yards last year.

3:51Yes. Chiefs did. One. Got out over the course of the season.

3:55Outrushed by Mahomes and I think Worthy had one or two as well.

3:58How is that even possible? I don't know. And it was by Kareem Hunt.

4:02Why is Kareem Hunt taking significant snaps for you in the year of 2025?

4:06The Chiefs overall had a 3% explosive run rate last season.

4:09The league average is 6.9%. So you are less than 50% as explosive as an average NFL team.

4:14It is a drastic shift. And I was looking at some of the numbers about specific types of runs because I'm actually

4:20curious not only about what the addition of Kenneth Walker will do to the overall explosiveness of the run game, but structurally

4:27how much change are we going to see because we've heard so much about the under center stuff we've seen from the

4:33Chiefs during the preseason, how much more of that is going to happen.

4:36Walker's run, Walker's explosive run rate on outside zone runs from under center last year, per sumer sports was about double the Chiefs rate.

4:43Part of the Chiefs issues with explosive runs is that they were under, they were in the shotgun on 60% of their

4:49runs last year, which is the fifth highest rate in the league.

4:53It's just harder to be explosive from the gun.

4:55We talked about that with the Bengals this offseason.

4:58Like, that's just a consistent talking point. So I think that them being under center a little bit more combined with the

5:04Kenneth Walker thing, that is the plan here. And I completely understand that plan.

5:08And it really should be because, too, if you think about even when the Chiefs had been good at running the ball, what was it, two years ago?

5:15A lot of it was downhill. Like you're saying, it's either gun like inside zone.

5:20They were doing like some counter and stuff, but it was a lot of duo.

5:24Like, it was like we are grinding teams down.

5:26And they were still kind of able to do that this year.

5:30But they just haven't really had a runner where it's worth running that much outside zone in a long time.

5:35Like, even when Isaiah Pacheco was really good, I just don't think that that's really like the best use of a runner like that.

5:42Whereas, like, Kenneth Walker, you're trying to do as much of that stuff as you possibly can.

5:47And we'll talk about the pass catchers later in this section.

5:50But clearly, the hope has to be, too, that Walker has an outsized effect on the favorability of coverage looks and the

5:56amount of guys that are hopefully in the box.

5:59I mean, another thing I thought was really staggering is the Chiefs ran into neutral and stacked boxes at the third lowest rate in the league last year.

6:06And despite all of the light boxes, it wasn't always bad.

6:09Obviously, we know for how non-explosive he was, Kareem Hunt's been one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL over the last couple years.

6:17But it wasn't good. And so either being able to take advantage of light boxes and teams dropping guys out of the

6:23box on you or loading that thing up and making it easier on these receivers to find favorable advantages, I just feel

6:29like that has to be the logic for the Chiefs this year, given what they did or did not do with their pass catchers.

6:36The thing I'm most excited about, just very quickly, it's on the defensive side of the ball.

6:40I knew we were going to hit the Kenneth Walker stuff in this conversation, but I'm really excited to see what a

6:47remade defensive front looks like for the Chiefs. Because this is a team that has been relying on Chris Jones, sort of

6:53George Karloftis, and not much else over the last few years, especially in the interior.

6:57I mean, this is a team that year over year, we have a Derek Nottie or a Derek Nottie-esque player next to

7:03Chris Jones over and over and over again. The leading interior defensive line snap getters for the Chiefs last year, other than

7:09Chris Jones, were Jerry Tillery and Derek Nottie, both of whom signed with the Colts this year for the minimum.

7:15Those are their two other interior defensive line snap getting guys.

7:18So now we're in a spot where you've got Kairos Tonga at nose, you drafted Peter Woods in the first round, our

7:24Mason Thomas is a pass down option with Aston Jelotti hopefully in there on early downs.

7:29It's just a completely remade group. They, last year, they had Chanel play up on the line of scrimmage because I think their edge depth was so questionable.

7:36He played 35% of his snaps on the line of scrimmage last year per PFF.

7:41They had one, they had one other defensive lineman other than Chris Jones or Karloftis get more than 25 pressures last year.

7:47One. And so I just think on top of them being a little bit punchier on offense, Derek, there is a real

7:53chance that with some of these additions, even if they're young players, even it's going to take a little time, they're going

7:59to be a lot punchier on defense and especially up front than they've been over the last couple of years.

8:05And they're young players, but like they were hot.

8:07They're all high draft picks. Like, you know, Delaney, they take sixth overall.

8:11And I thought that he was an incredible cornerback prospect.

8:14Peter Woods. I realized that some people were a little bit more up and down.

8:18I thought that he was really talented. Our Mason Thomas, I think in the preseason has looked electric.

8:23Like he clearly has, I think of the juice that they were hoping for when they drafted a guy like that.

8:29And then those sorts of guys that those, those guys have not been here.

8:33And because even I think George Karloftis is a good player.

8:36He's not like a fly around the edge and get to the quarterback in the snap of a finger type of player.

8:42He's a little bit more of like a utility kind of set the edge, push the pocket hustle sacks player.

8:47And I even like Gelati as that, but he's again, in the similar vein to George Karloftis.

8:52Our Mason Thomas is truly like the quarterback might go down in two seconds.

8:56And then again, they just haven't had a player like that.

8:59So if you can weaponize that with Tonga can be a piece who can move around a little bit and be an explosive guy.

9:06Chris Jones is obviously at his best. One of those players.

9:09Like it just feels like even though they lose some flexibility with losing Chennault, right?

9:13It just feels like they have more flexibility up front because of just how much explosive they are with some of these players.

9:20I know he's not new anymore, but Felix on you DK Uzoma is interesting to me as well.

9:25He didn't have a season last year. I remember we brought him up in the preview last year because it was still

9:31early enough that he hadn't gone out for the year yet.

9:34And in name, at least like he's the other guy across from Karloftis right now.

9:38Yeah, I assume that's going to be a mix of Gelati and our Mason Thomas when it's all said and done.

9:44That's how I'm looking at it. I think you're probably onto something there, but year three coming off of an injury, another highly drafted guy.

9:51I get that it hasn't panned out there as of yet.

9:54But if you're looking for somebody to help you out with that rotation, it's only 24 years old, despite the fact that

10:00this will be year four of his NFL career.

10:03I don't have high hopes, but when a guy like that who hasn't done a whole lot misses an entire season anyway,

10:09he just tends to drop completely off the radar.

10:11So I think it's at least worth mentioning. Next question we're going to ask for all of these teams, and this is

10:17slightly different, so bear with me for a second.

10:20I want to talk about what we're watching the first month of the season.

10:24And this is not necessarily the thing you're excited to watch.

10:27We already hit that. This is a curiosity you have, something that you feel like is sort of a question hanging over

10:33this team where I want to see just what it looks like, how they deploy a certain guy, structurally what they want to do.

10:40So Derek, when you're looking at the Chiefs over the first month of the season, what is the biggest curiosity for you associated with this team?

10:47I mean, we're talking about it with the defense, and I think obviously we're excited about the talent that they're bringing.

10:53But I think to me, it's like this talent, I think might inform the scheme being something a little bit different, both

10:59in efficiency and in terms of what they're actually doing.

11:02One in terms of what I think it's actually going to look a little bit different, and I've talked about this before.

11:08I think when you bring in Tonga, you bring in a guy like Peter Woods who can play kind of anywhere from

11:14like two tech all the way out to five tech.

11:17You bring in more of a true pass rusher like an R.

11:20Mason Thomas outside land back around the edge. It feels like they're trying to build a little bit more of a 3-4 odd front style of defense.

11:28And they played a lot of those fronts last year with Chennau down on the ball.

11:32But I think that this is a little bit more of like that style of front that can be a little bit

11:39more attacking, be a little bit more blitz heavy if they want to, and actually get into the backfield, which that's really,

11:45I think, what Spags wants to do. This is also a team that when the Chiefs defense was really good in 23

11:51and 24, they ran man coverage about 30 to 33 percent of the time.

11:55And I know that man coverage rates have gone down league wide in general, but that number dropped to about 19.8 percent last year.

12:02And I think part of that is in 23, especially you had you had Josh Williams and Jarius Sneed as these big

12:08outside just mug the shit out of you at the line type of corners.

12:12And they just have Duffy in the slot with McDuffie in the slot.

12:15Exactly. And McDuffie was a cover guy in the slot who could just run with anybody.

12:20He could run with slot receivers. I think when it became like Chamari Connor in the slot, who can't really do as much of that.

12:27And then McDuffie on the outside, who can't really do as much of the press man on the outside, I think they

12:33were just that that part of their game fell away.

12:36I think now you have Noel Williams, who I think we're all kind of high on as like a press style man corner.

12:42And I think the man store delaying can really do that.

12:45And so it just feels like this defense is shifting towards, I think, again, potentially a little bit more odd front and

12:51potentially a little bit more man coverage, because really at Spags his core, I think that's what he really likes to do.

12:57There's one more little breadcrumb that I would pick up as it relates to that.

13:02Chris Roland Wallace right now is the starting nickel instead of Chamari Connor.

13:05And so now you're going from a guy who's a bigger safety body who struggled in coverage at times.

13:11There were limitations on what they could do if he was going to be their primary nickel player.

13:16And so them going with a more traditional cover nickel body as their main guy in that spot, I think that's something to pay attention to.

13:23The number that I thought was really jarring when I was looking back at some of the splits about this Chiefs team last year.

13:30And again, I think it's maybe a little bit of a signal about them playing a little bit more man coverage last year.

13:36We talked about this in real time. The Chiefs last season had a below average dropback success rate when blitzing on defense.

13:42The Chiefs, right? It's just not a way we typically think about a Spags team.

13:46They were 17th in EPA per dropback per next gen on blitzes overall last year.

13:51It was not very characteristic of a Spags defense.

13:53The split on that, they were 30th in the league.

13:56The Chiefs were in EPA per dropback on zone blitzes, second on man blitzes.

14:00And so them getting back to a place where they just want to play a little bit more f*** you ball and

14:06having the guys to do it and the way they've structured the secondary, I think there's some signal there.

14:11I'm very curious how quickly that plays out and how forcefully, but it's something I'd be paying attention to.

14:17How well it plays out too. I mean, these are young, unproven players.

14:20Even as high as we are in Noel Williams, we mentioned it.

14:24No, Noel Williams is already a star. Delaney is an unproven player.

14:27Noel Williams, we're writing that in pen. I'm all set.

14:30Okay. The other, structurally, I'll throw this in just really quickly.

14:33We talked a little bit about Walker and I think that's part of it, but I'm interested in the structure of the

14:39offense as well because this is a team that was incredibly siloed.

14:42So beyond running the ball under center, beyond the changes of what running the ball under center could do for their explosiveness,

14:48I just think having more optionality and murkiness about what you're doing situationally.

14:52A lot of teams in the NFL have done this.

14:55They've gone back to an under center world in part because you're giving away no information by doing that while making things

15:01easier on the line, on the quarterback. The Chiefs last year were one of the most siloed teams in the NFL.

15:07Per true media, 19.3% play action rate from under center last year.

15:10Which was 31st in the NFL. They ran the ball 80% of the time when they were under center last season.

15:16That's not going to happen again. I think because of the running back, because they know there are benefits waiting if they diversify that a little bit.

15:24So I think there are structural considerations on defense like Derek mentioned.

15:27And I'm also curious what some of that stuff looks like on offense.

15:31And then Dave, very quickly, what are you watching the first month of the season?

15:35You had something slightly a little bit different. I think it's more or less the same.

15:39Just in particular, it's easy to get excited about guys that were drafted highly.

15:43Peter Woods and R. Mason Thomas specifically, because it's very easy to envision the role for Mansur Delaney.

15:48But these are highly rotational, highly specific roles. To Derek's point, Peter Woods is a guy that could line up in a variety of different places.

15:56Like, I think ideally you would play Peter Woods at three technique.

15:59Well, guess who the Chiefs have? The Chiefs have Chris Jones.

16:02Well, I like the fact that he's not going to have to like eat glass on early downs early in the season

16:08where you could probably use him a little bit more situationally as he comes along because you signed Tonga in free agency.

16:14And I'm guessing that would happen because, yeah, you gave Tonga a lot of money to be that guy.

16:20You have Chris Jones. How does Peter Woods mix in there?

16:23It was one snap. But the Chiefs put Woods and Jones out there in the preseason on a third and long together

16:29where and Jones was aligned at the three. Woods was at the one.

16:33I was like, this is very fun. Same thing for R.

16:36Mason Thomas. Where is he a DPR? Is he not useful to you on rundowns?

16:40Is he a pass rush specialist? Just how three dimensional is his game?

16:43I just want to see where they are and obviously how often they're out there in the in the early going specifically.

16:50Like, how ready are these guys for legitimate action?

16:52When we looked at these defensive line rotations that have been really well constructed over the last couple of years, there's a variety of body types.

16:59You can use guys situationally. We've got some guys that are these bigger body rundown players.

17:04We've got some guys that are more of those speed demon third down type players.

17:08And you look at Jalotti and R. Mason Thomas and the way that they're built.

17:12Why is 270? Right. Let's throw him out there when it's first and 10 on the other side of Karloftis.

17:18And let's let R. Mason Thomas get going on third and eight.

17:21And I think it makes a lot of sense when you look at that room and it's just so much more varied

17:27than it has been for this team in a while when it feels like we've had, I think, generously framed more plotting

17:33body types overall when you've looked at their defensive line.

17:36Yeah, exactly. Like it's just again, I think the juice gives them a lot of flexibility, even if maybe they've lost that in Leosional.

17:43For all these teams, we're going to talk about just the stuff that maybe worries us a little bit.

17:48What is keeping us up at night about all these teams, but here specifically the Kansas City Chiefs?

17:53Dave, what about the Kansas City Chiefs is keeping you up two weeks before the season gets going here?

17:59What if Kenneth Walker's presence in the offense isn't enough to change the fact that this could be like a bottom five receiver core?

18:05Yes. And I think it's I think it's good to put a parameter on that.

18:10Like, I don't think anybody is confused that the Chiefs receiver core isn't great.

18:13But what if it's like a bottom five unit?

18:16Like, what if Rasheed Rice has lost a step for various reasons, be they injury or incarceration related?

18:21We're what is it's running on Saturday. We talked to Jesse Newell, our chief, our chief strider as part of the beat writer notebooks.

18:28And we were just talking. He's like he just so casually was just like, well, yeah, because he was rehabbing in jail.

18:34And it just it's just important. I think keep reminding ourselves that their most important receiver was having to do his rehab in jail this spring.

18:41Xavier Worthy weighs 165 pounds and dealt with injury last year.

18:44He's hurt now. He's not even in contact drills now.

18:47We joked about it. We joked about it several times this summer.

18:50But and I hope Cyrus Allen is awesome. But if a fifth round pick is like the talk of camp and there's

18:57a genuine panic when he suffers a practice injury, that's not a good sign if you're supposed to contend for meaningful things.

19:03And that's where the Chiefs are right now. Like I went I went through and I was like, who who do I

19:09think definitively has a worse receiver core than the Chiefs?

19:12And I came up with like Miami and Vegas and the worst teams in the league.

19:16Yeah. Right. Yes. You can't even say Washington now that they have Stefan Diggs.

19:20So, I mean, like this could be a really, really bad unit.

19:23And I don't know if Kenneth Walker alone can fix that.

19:26All the explosive run talk is really fun. But when it's third and eight.

19:30What happens other than? Hey, Pat, bail us out.

19:33What happens? Well, this is not a problem. Can can Pat bail you out as much, especially in the first like six weeks of the season?

19:40We haven't even mentioned the fact that the most important player is coming off of a torn ACL, which I do think

19:46is important to bring up in this exact situation.

19:49So last year, per next gen, 34 percent man coverage rate overall.

19:52That was the second highest rate in the league on third and medium to long.

19:56They faced forty nine point seven percent man coverage.

19:59They've seen two of the top five highest cover one rates on third down in the league over the last two years since 2022.

20:06So two of the top five. That's a hundred combined seasons.

20:09They have two of the top five rates because teams just have no respect for what they can do in those situations.

20:15Why should we have any more respect now? Like Cyrus Allen is your answer to that.

20:19And I think that's been my frustration the entire offseason.

20:22I understand the Kenneth Walker part of this, but is that enough?

20:25Like if that's your true difference making move on that side of the ball, that does not address all of the issues

20:32that we have seen with this team. And so how are they going to address those issues?

20:36And if the answer is just Cyrus Allen, OK, I'm just not sure I'm moved by that.

20:41I would love if Cyrus Allen was good. A fifth round pick fixing the biggest problem with your passing game going into

20:47the year is probably not a bet I'd be wanting to make.

20:51Well, and like a fifth round pick who, again, he might be good.

20:54He is also 180 pounds. So he's he's smaller.

20:57Cyrus is disgusted by the way they approached it.

20:59I mean, because it's not just that the receiving core is not good.

21:03Like Vegas is receiving core isn't good either, but at least like there's different body types that like if stuff hits, you

21:09theoretically solve a number of different problems. Because the Chiefs, even in like the best case scenario, still don't really have like a ball winner.

21:16They still don't really have a guy that you can just like pin it on his back shoulder.

21:21And when it like it's still a lot of like we've got to deal with your bullshit if you don't have one

21:27of those, by the way, he's even giving the Ravens the time of day anymore is because Jacoby Lane is there.

21:33Yeah, because Jacoby Lane is going to be T Higgins.

21:36But I like I do think that there is something to like, listen, if teams are going to make you throw more

21:42of these outside the numbers, maybe man you up a little bit more like it's kind of nice to just have a

21:48big man who's going to go dunk on somebody.

21:51And I think even in the best case scenario, even if this is, you know, only the 20th best receiver core, if

21:57things work out, they still don't have that guy at all.

22:0057 explosives from the Chiefs receivers last year, which is a perfectly average number.

22:0411 of those 57 came versus man coverage, which is 29th in the NFL.

22:08They were 20th in e-paper drop bag against man on third down with Mahomes.

22:12With Mahomes scrambling as part of that equation, scrambling as much as he ever has in those scenarios over the course of the regular season.

22:19Mahomes, if he's healthy, is a heck of an equalizer, but doesn't mean we should be asking him.

22:24He shouldn't have to be. Yeah, we shouldn't be asking this of him.

22:27Shouldn't have to be. Yeah. All right. That brings me to my answer to this question, but I'm going to pose it to you guys as well.

22:35What does success look like for the 2026 Kansas City Chiefs?

22:38This is a naughty question. I'm trying. I'm going to try to be kitschy with most of my answers this year.

22:44And my answer, I can define it more clearly if you want to, but a successful season for the Chiefs is if they restore the aura.

22:51That's I 100% agree. Like that. That's OK. Pretty much my answer.

22:55We outlined 10 reasons why you might be mediocre when the division anyway.

22:58You're the chiefs. That's that's successful for the chiefs.

23:01And they don't they don't have to get back to the Super Bowl.

23:04They don't have to make a run through the playoffs when the division that you owned for a decade with a roster

23:10we're not 100% sure about because that's what the chiefs that I grew to respect so much would do.

23:16I think a solid playoff showing winning a playoff game, getting the division around all that stuff is probably baked into this,

23:22but it's secondary to me because I'm 100% with you.

23:25Are we excited about them again? Do they feel scary again?

23:28Do they feel like the chiefs? Yes, because like winning the division.

23:31It's like, well, they won the division in 2024 and they didn't like that.

23:35And you know, they get to the Super Bowl because they're the chiefs.

23:39They have Patrick Mahomes, but they never felt like this scary like, oh my God team.

23:43If Kenneth Walker makes them explosive again, if Patrick Mahomes looks 100% and the defense is like young and explosive and can

23:49do all the shit that Spags wants to do, it's like, OK, that feels like the Kansas City Chiefs again.

23:55Do we have juice? Do teams go into the game against you shaking in their boots a little bit?

24:00Because that has not happened in a while. And I would love to see that type of Kansas City Chiefs team again.

24:06And if we do. Results aside, how far they go in the playoffs aside, I do think that we can start to frame that season as success.

24:14Derek, was your answer generally in that same range?

24:16What was yours? Yeah, it was like you need to feel like the team that everybody kind of has like you're they're

24:23putting a target on your back again. Whereas I just don't think that right now anybody really feels that way about the Chiefs.

24:29All right. Before we get to the Chargers preview, let's take a quick break.

24:33Let's get to our next one here. The Los Angeles Chargers.

24:36Our preview for the 2026 Los Angeles Chargers. They're offseason in 60 seconds.

24:40Hired Mike McDaniel as their offensive coordinator. Brought back Chris O'Leary as their defensive coordinator.

24:44Signed Cole Strange, Tyler Biotish, RIP, in free agency.

24:46Charlie Kohler, Keaton Mitchell, Alec Ingle, Dalvin Tomlinson. Lost to Daffy O'A, Zion Johnson, Benjamin St.

24:51Justin, Deshaun Hand in free agency. In the draft, Akeem Mesidor in the first round.

24:55Jake Slaughter in the second round. A lot involved there now.

24:58Travis Burke and Jennison Smith in the fourth round.

25:01Derek. Oh, don't leave out Brennan Thompson. Oh, sorry.

25:03Don't do that. I'm so sorry. Brennan Thompson is exactly the type of guy that Chiefs need.

25:08You can't leave out the 4-2-8-40 receiver. I'm not doing fifth round picks for every single one of these teams.

25:14I'm just letting you know right now. Derek, what are you most excited about watching?

25:18With the 2026 Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert gets a play caller that we all know is damn good at this.

25:24Like, it's as simple as that. And we talked about it on the play caller show.

25:28And so I think, you know, we handled some of the details there.

25:32But like, I think for so much of Justin Herbert's career, it's been like this and that.

25:36It's been in the offensive line. And even when he's had decent play callers, it never felt like he was still protected

25:43by the system and stuff like that. And this feels like the first time where it's like, no, Mike McDaniel, if he

25:49could do it with Tua Tonga-Vailoa, I'm pretty sure that he can do it with a quarterback like Justin Herbert.

25:54So just seeing what that looks like and not even just the like, wow, Justin Herbert might go nuclear in this offense.

26:01Like, I'm kind of excited to see like an iteration for Mike McDaniel because he's always had those tweaks to his offense, right?

26:07But the fact that this is like such a just a new batch of ingredients that he's working with, like this could

26:13be just the appointment viewing on Monday morning type stuff.

26:16I'm frustrated thinking about it because there there's not much else to say.

26:20I mean, we have a host of stats and evidence about what McDaniel did during his time in Miami, and we do know he's good at this.

26:27But how much how much can you extrapolate? Other than I know that Mike McDaniel knows how to design a really good

26:33run game and the Chargers have the personnel to run the ball effectively.

26:37I don't know. I don't know what else to say.

26:40And I think about how much of his offense there was designed around Tua's very specific skill set.

26:45And you couldn't have a more different quarterback from Tua than Justin Herbert.

26:48So just how different it's going to look from Miami is so interesting to me.

26:53I'll say a few things. First of all, let's just talk about the overall quality of the Dolphins offenses that Derek is

26:59alluding to when it comes to when Tua was on the field over the last four years.

27:03Because I think a lot of people are going to go to, well, there's some stylistic quirks to what Mike McDaniel does.

27:10And is it built for the playoffs? And it's a little bit specific.

27:13I acknowledge all of that, right? All of that.

27:16But there's no denying that he built something incredibly exciting with a very limited quarterback.

27:20When Tua was on the field the last four seasons, per True Media, the Dolphins averaged 0.14 EPA per dropback.

27:26That would have been fifth in the NFL behind the Bills, the Lions, the Niners, and the Packers.

27:31They had a 13.3% explosive play rate, which would be number one in football over that stretch with Tua as the quarterback.

27:37And so I think even if, well, you know, are those teams physical enough?

27:41All of that. Fine. I'm willing to acknowledge all of that.

27:44But the quality of the passing game specifically is really unimpeachable over that stretch.

27:48And so I'm very excited to see what Justin Herbert looks like in those circumstances.

27:52It's funny that you say that about the passing game because I did want to touch on that.

27:57And I was looking up some of the numbers around this and I was going back and re-watching the Dolphins from last

28:03year because I don't think we were all super keyed into what the Miami Dolphins looked like for a good chunk of last season.

28:10Not after, like, Halloween. It was weird. I'll tell you that.

28:13Not after a week of one. Not after the Dolphins game.

28:16So I went back and I was watching it because in part because I wanted to watch Waddle as we're going to talk about the Broncos here.

28:23Last year. So in 2023, the Dolphins ran 40 or 26.3% outbreaking routes per next gen.

28:28That was bottom five in the NFL. Last year was 34.5%, which was a top six rate in the league.

28:33And I think part of that is because the Dolphins were seeing so much cover too over the last few years.

28:39And they were seeing it again, a ton of it again last year.

28:43And so I think they were really trying to design a lot of stuff to get back into those hole shot windows,

28:49whether, all right, we're going to snap back across our return route.

28:53We're going to run some sale type stuff. And they were doing a ton more of that.

28:57And so I actually think that's the element of the offense where if teams want to play them the same way that

29:03they played the Dolphins for structural reasons, personnel obviously is not the same.

29:07You don't have Tyree kill and Jalen Waddle. But I wonder, Derek, if some of the reasons that we saw.

29:13So the Dolphins last year saw 10.8% cover one.

29:15So lowest rate in the league by a ton.

29:18The Chargers saw it 28% of the time. So that to me is one of the most important considerations is that teams

29:24were challenging the Chargers receivers in a way they never challenged the Dolphins receivers.

29:28But I think part of it might be the amount of motion that the Dolphins used.

29:32And so if you think, all right, even if the receiving talent is different, do teams play a little bit less man

29:38because the Chargers are going to use so much more motion than they used a year ago?

29:43And then do we see some of those same levers that Mike McDaniel started pulling last year with some of those outbreaking

29:49routes because you're having to deal with all these cloud coverages?

29:52That's a way of kind of squaring the Justin Herbert skill set with some of the stuff we've seen and heard from

29:59training camp so far that actually does kind of align with what the Dolphins were doing more of last season.

30:04I think I think a lot of the motion stuff does kind of inform a lot of the man cover stuff.

30:10And again, obviously, you know, you're a little bit scared of manning up a guy like Jalen Waddle in a way that

30:16I'm not sure you're quite as scared of that for anybody with the Chargers, even I think in the best version of Lad McConkie.

30:23But I do think a lot of that is the motion.

30:26And I think it's both run and pass. Like, obviously, McDaniel is does such a good job of like finding ways to

30:32get guys out free in the flat or, you know, open up a window so he can throw the drift route.

30:38But he's also like if you're playing any amount of man coverage, he's just going to rip the nickel out of the fit.

30:44And then he's going to be able to be able to bend back, you know, a zone run and just stuff like that.

30:51So I think that he does an incredible job of that.

30:54And to the point of the physicality stuff and Miami being a team that was just so much more speed than it

31:00was power, I think part of that was like some of McDaniel building the offense a certain way.

31:05And, you know, maybe some of that was because he had to a two.

31:09Maybe that's just what he wants to do. But I think him working under the Jim Harbaugh umbrella, like physicality and being

31:15able to go toe to toe with people, it's not really something I worry about with that building, whether or not they have the talent up front.

31:23Makes it a really interesting marriage in that exact way, you know, like I mean, like a Jim Harbaugh team with like

31:29Joe Alton, Rashawn Slater, like those guys that, you know, and all the tight ends that they have.

31:34I'm like, I feel a little bit more comfortable that the physicality will come like it'll be there.

31:39It's I thought about that when you mentioned how it translates to the playoffs and things like that.

31:44And Carbog, you know, his calling card is this physicality smash mouth football.

31:48Remember, Mike McDaniel contributed plenty to some ferocious 49ers teams that ran through the playoffs to more speaking, I think, for the

31:54the crowd out there that has questions. I'm not talking to you.

31:57I'm talking to people that might think that that like the Niners, when Mike McDaniel was drawing up their run game were held.

32:04I was I was at that game where they just absolutely curb stomp the Packers in San Francisco, man.

32:09I can't remember. It was in Santa Clara. I can't remember what year that was, maybe 2019.

32:14I think it was the 2019 season where he most are just did horrible, horrible things.

32:18That entire Packers defense 2021 Dallas wildcard round 49ers just hellacious.

32:21So the one last number I want to throw out as it relates to this, I was looking for it when you were talking, Derek.

32:28Last year, per next gen Dolphins use motion at the snap on 49 percent of their of their passes.

32:33It's the third highest rate in the league. Chargers were at 25 percent.

32:37So literally twice as often. And so I think that on top of the areas of the field, they might attack the

32:43field a little bit different than what the Dolphins had.

32:46Just how much more movement and how this dynamism we're potentially going to see from this offense compared to what the Chargers

32:52were doing a year ago, I think is worth at least acknowledging.

32:56Another thing I'm curious about really quickly is just Tua was famous for getting the ball out faster than anybody in the NFL.

33:02His average release time is a half second faster than Justin Herbert over the four years that McDaniel was his coach.

33:08Herbert's got a cannon. So I'm like, how do you marry that being such a staple of what McDaniel did in Miami

33:14versus having a quarterback like Justin Herbert? That is something they've talked a lot about.

33:18And that's been from the spring on McDaniel kind of trying to convince him, hey, you need to let this go before you see it come open.

33:26Like I trust me, trust that this is going to be there.

33:29And I think I remember talking to Frank Smith for something I was working on a few years ago when Tua was

33:35really rolling about what that process looks like with a quarterback where you've really got to earn a certain amount of trust

33:41for that guy to play that way, to play the way that Tua was.

33:45We were calling it anticipation, but in reality, it was more so just I'm putting myself in the hands of the offense.

33:51And I think that's fine, right? That's not even to take away from him because that's a skill in and of itself.

33:58In order to let yourself go and be willing to play that way, there are benefits waiting for you on the other side.

34:04And I think that's been a process with Herbert this offseason and how quickly he's willing to do some of that stuff

34:10and what sort of throws he's willing to let loose maybe a half second before he would have in a previous offense.

34:16I think that's going to be something to watch with this team.

34:20Speaking of what we're watching, Dave, what are you watching the first month of the season with the Los Angeles Chargers?

34:26It makes a ton of sense to think that Chris O'Leary is just an extension of Jesse Minner because he he played

34:32when Jesse Minner was his coach at Indiana State.

34:34He got his first job under Jesse Minner. He's very intrinsically tied to Jesse Minner.

34:38Daniel Popper, our guy who's done so much good work around the Chargers, he's got great notes in his stories about, you

34:45know, O'Leary took Minner's foundational aspects of defense to Western Michigan.

34:48Ball disruption, tackling, effort angles. Those are like the five pillars that Minner likes to coach.

34:52Even to the point where O'Leary was just tagging Chargers tape last year and showing it to his Western Michigan defense and

34:58saying, this is what the scheme looks like at the best possible level.

35:02So it's understandable that we think the defense is going to look the same.

35:06Chris O'Leary is still a person and he has to call the defense.

35:09And so he's going to have his own tendencies, his own preferences, his own ideas of how, you know, what he might

35:16do differently from Jesse Minner or to be blunt, he just might not be as good at this at the NFL level as Jesse Minner is.

35:23So how he calls his defense and the subtle little differences between what it looked like under Jesse Minner and what Chris O'Leary will be doing.

35:30I think that's a situation where the first four or five weeks of data and just watching their games, I think will

35:36inform you a lot about how he might be different.

35:39What I think is encouraging, just hearing about his experience at Western Michigan and what that was like for him in his

35:45first year as a play caller, which last year was his first year as a defensive play caller, Chris O'Leary.

35:51He did that at the beginning where they just walked in and he was like, here's the Chargers playbook.

35:56This is what we're going to do. And I think he realized over the course of the early part of that season, we can't do this.

36:03We just don't have the personnel to play this way.

36:06And I think over the course of the season, I don't have any numbers behind it.

36:11I don't have any Western Michigan blitz rates for you, which I did.

36:14But anecdotally, what was said to me is that they really had to tap into a level of aggressiveness.

36:20We wouldn't typically ascribe to those Jesse Minner Chargers teams, more exotic pressures, a little bit matchier on third downs, some man

36:26pressures to kind of force the issue a little bit.

36:29We saw a little bit more of that with the Chargers last year, but that's not how you would describe the identity of the Chargers defense.

36:36But that's what they needed to do a little bit more of.

36:39And I think he was willing to embrace that.

36:42And I think he's willing to do the same thing now, where I think the early part of this season, because even

36:48the guys, even if they're the same, those guys are maturing.

36:51Right. If you feel a little bit better about Cam Hart this year than you did last year on the outside, can

36:57you play a little bit more man coverage? Right.

37:00Can you play a little bit more dime if Tar Heep still is going to bounce inside and you have Cam Hart on the outside?

37:07What does Dante Jackson look like this year after having a really nice season last year?

37:11You've got some moving pieces on the interior of the defensive line.

37:15And so I think you only know so much about your defense before the season starts.

37:19You have to get some information early on about, I think, the categories that I heard about when I was there.

37:25How can you get pressure with four? Can we cover one-on-one on the outside?

37:29And what sort of tools do I need to allow my defensive tackles to hold up against the rung?

37:34I think you want to start as simple as possible with all of those answers.

37:38And then if you need to get more complex, that's what the process looks like.

37:42And based on what happened at Western Michigan last year, it sounds like he's very open to what that process is going to need to be.

37:50And I'm really interested to see it because I think Jesse Minter's defense, like, to me, is it's not like D'Amico Ryan's defense necessarily.

37:56But, like, when I watch a D'Amico Ryan's defense, it's like they kind of do what they do.

38:01And it's just taught so incredibly well. And to me, that's what it is with Jesse Minter.

38:06It's like when they pressure, when they bring five, it's still just three deeps and three under, like three deep, three under.

38:12It's a lot of cover three. And they were a little bit more mixed up last year.

38:17They threw a little bit more cover zero. But it's still kind of like they run what they run.

38:22They run a lot of quarters and they play, like, off quarters where they're just like, we're going to let you throw in the flats a little bit.

38:30We're going to let you get this. We're going to come up and rally and tackle.

38:35And so they were really good at that because those guys could come up and do that.

38:40And so I think Jesse Minter solved problems by kind of whittling down the playbook in a way and being like, we teach this incredibly well.

38:47Everybody knows all the rules. We're going to do it this way.

38:50I just wonder if O'Leary's way to solve problems is like, maybe he doesn't teach things as well.

38:55I don't know. Again, he's a completely different person than Minter.

38:58But maybe his way of problem solving is we're just going to throw different things at the defense and like at the

39:04offense and make them think a little bit more.

39:07Throw some more unique pressures, maybe play a little bit more man.

39:10Like you mentioned, the man coverage stuff. The only team that ran less cover one than them was the Vikings.

39:16And obviously they do so much weird shit on the other end to kind of make up for the fact they don't do that.

39:23That's just not really what the Chargers did. So I'm just very interested to see what knobs they kind of turn in

39:29terms of the blitz rate and the blitz packages.

39:31And then maybe the man coverage stuff. What I do think is encouraging is that even if we have a new defensive coordinator, one, he's been here.

39:39Right. He was here on the staff in year one when they introduced the system.

39:43So I think there's a little that that doesn't matter.

39:46That does carry some weight. But I think the other part of it is these guys have been in this system now going on three years.

39:53And some of the things that they were able to build in last year, they just had more optionality pre-snap as a

39:59defense last year than they did the year before because you have continuity.

40:03So you have a system of kills where like you have the right tool for the right situation, whether it's formational, down

40:09a distance, all of that in a way that's harder to do in year one because you're just trying to build the bones of the system.

40:16That stuff you can carry over even if the coordinator changes because all of the communication points, especially in the back seven, are the same.

40:23All of them. And so I do think that kind of earned equity within the defense and what that provides you overall

40:29with the players does matter in a situation like this, even if you're swapping out the coordinator.

40:34I like that point because I'm and I've said before, I'm lower on like the personnel on the Chargers defense.

40:40Yes. But you can make up for personnel with a hive mind mentality and the Chargers have the continuity to to perform

40:46at that level, I would guess, assuming O'Leary is not going to drastically change too much.

40:50Dave, what is you what is keeping you up at night about the 2026 Los Angeles Chargers?

40:55I promise I was already worried about this before Tyler Biotish got sent to injured reserve.

41:00But I just I need to see the offensive line be something worth being excited about before I believe it.

41:05Screw being excited about it. I need to see the offensive line not being actively terrifying and harmful to the quarterback to believe it.

41:12And Tyler Biotish is already out for the year.

41:14Joe Alt missed 11 games last year. Sean Slater has only played 60 percent of his possible NFL games to this point

41:21in his just came back to practice. Just came back to practice.

41:24I'm terrified. Justin Herbert's offensive line is a mirage again.

41:27And even though they've they've definitely tried because they'd signed Biotish to a 30 million dollar deal.

41:32That's up in smoke, at least for the first year.

41:34Jake Slaughter, I guess if you're looking for maximum cope, at least Jake Slaughter has a chance to play his natural position now.

41:41Because before that is maximum cope, it is a thing worth bringing up.

41:44Before this, it was, well, Jake Slaughter's never played guard in his life, but he can do it.

41:49So now at least he gets to play center.

41:52So I guess that's nice. And it was talking to people there.

41:55They had examples ready of guys who had done that before.

41:58They were just like, well, Cam Juergens played guard his rookie year.

42:02And it's like, oh, yeah, I guess Cam Juergens did play guard his rookie year.

42:06It's a good point. That has happened. Sure. When you're in the Eagles ecosystem.

42:10Sure. If we're being thorough, I guess Jake Slaughter practiced that guard at Florida, but never in a game in his life.

42:16So that's terrifying. Left guard as of Tuesday, August 25th is a total free for all.

42:20No, I don't. It sounds like it's going to be Alaseka.

42:24It sounds like it's been going to be Coyote Alaseka is probably going to win that job.

42:2811 career starts over the course of his career.

42:31And then it's a bunch of young guys and guys brought back from a line that was awful last year.

42:36Yes, he was a spot starter on a terrible interior for the Lions last year.

42:41Cole Strange is a guy that was a cast off in New England that only works in this sort of offense.

42:46I was going to say he's McDaniel is his sponsor like so clearly.

42:50And then you have Jake Slaughter stepping in here.

42:53You talked about this with the Chiefs receiving core.

42:55Derek, is there a worse interior offensive line trio in the NFL right now than what the Chargers are trotting out in week one?

43:02I mean, I'm sure if I looked at all of them, there might be one or two, but I would be hard

43:08pressed to say it's not bottom five. Like unless Slaughter is just back to his natural position, he looks great.

43:14But I think the fact that they never seen him play an NFL game.

43:18Exactly. Like and the fact that he like could not win the guard spot.

43:21And again, I know that that's not his natural position, but you would hope that a higher draft pick would be able to do that.

43:28And like fend off guys who had only been spot starters before.

43:32So it is probably one of the worst interior offensive lines in football.

43:35And like I didn't love necessarily like the amount of money the Browns paid to like Zion Johnson.

43:40But this is worse than that. And so like I just have some questions.

43:44Yeah. Yeah. I mean, at least the Browns threw some resources at it.

43:48I don't know how the bang for their buck probably won't be the same.

43:52But the collective amount of money paid to Awaseka and Cole Strange plus a second round pick we've never seen play beyond the over like the quality concerns.

44:00Just what you've poured into this without Beattish is going to be one of the thinnest offensive line and interior offensive line

44:06investments in the league period right now. You're asking the coordinator to do a lot of lifting to make sure we do not notice these guys.

44:13Can't you just imagine to like I'm holding out hope that the tackles being really good can mitigate a lot of this.

44:19I think they are too. Well, sure. But then week two, I don't even know who they play week two, but the

44:25announcer is going to be like, that's Joe. All two looks a little bit nicked up after the play.

44:31Don't even do that. I don't even want to start.

44:34I legitimately lose sleep thinking about this and I don't I'm not even a Chargers fan.

44:38I just feel like they're doomed for their offensive line to disappear in a puff of smoke every September.

44:43And I hate it for him, but it doesn't mean I'm not afraid.

44:47I'm in a similar boat with this. Like I just think that we ended up in a place where the offensive line

44:53isn't any better than it was heading into the 2024 season when it was an absolute disaster.

44:58It'd be better than it was last season because the tackles will hopefully be back.

45:02But the interior so much of the optimistic case to be made about why the Chargers would feel different this year is

45:08the upgrade in center quality and experience. Right. Like it's be honest being able to just get guys on the right page.

45:14And, you know, obviously Bradley Boseman's played a lot of football, but you watched it last year and the interior and just

45:21the plan and past protection was an abomination. So often.

45:23And the whole argument was that Beattish will be able to get that to a place that you would feel better about it.

45:30And now you're putting in a guy who's never played in the NFL to carry that responsibility.

45:35And it just it worries me like that. That is the thing I'm probably most worried about.

45:39And like you mentioned, you know, kind of comping it more to 2024, where it was a little bit different.

45:45And obviously last year they were so banged up.

45:472024, they get to the playoffs and just get eviscerated by the Houston, Texas defense, which like that's going to happen because that defense is like that.

45:55But they just really did not have a chance in that game.

45:58And so that scares me. I think my concern is, I guess, a little bit related to that.

46:03But mine is more that like I'm fairly confident this will be a good team, that this team can win 9, 10,

46:10maybe 11 games if things break right. I still just kind of feel like they're the doorman for who is like a

46:16serious NFL contender because I'm just not sure they have like the star really get you over the finish line talent outside of like quarterback Derwin James.

46:23And the tackles are great, but like they don't touch the ball.

46:27And I do think that in the playoffs, like that kind of matters that you need guys who touch the ball or touch the quarterback.

46:34Derek's note was so mean, but so true. The contender tables doorman.

46:37That's what they feel like. We left them off for a reason.

46:40The last two years. And I think on defense, the most important consideration with that is they played above the, they were

46:46more than the sum of the parts. Like they were the classic more than the sum of the parts defense with Jesse

46:53Mentor over the last couple of years. I mean, I think they finished sixth in EPA per play defensively last season.

46:58And that takes a phenomenal coaching job by a guy who has a pretty universal level of praise.

47:03And it justifiably got the best head coaching job that was available to anyone in probably the last 10 years and what he's walking into in Baltimore.

47:11That's the type of coach we're talking about. Even if you can be excited about Chris O'Leary's potential as a coordinator, he's

47:17stepping into massive shoes without a ton of truly difference-making players.

47:20Thule had a really nice season last year. Tyer Tartt has been really good for this team.

47:25But I think the best part about the Chargers defensive personnel over the last few years is that they've gotten so much

47:31more than they've paid for with some of the guys they've gotten off the street.

47:35Like, and that's great. Like that gets you to a level where you're playing top 10 defense in a way that people are surprised by.

47:42But does that, is that enough for you to be beating teams in the playoffs?

47:47Is it not enough for you to be a Super Bowl contender?

47:50And I think you could ask that same question when Jesse Minter was the coordinator, let alone when we have a guy who's never done this before.

47:57And so I think that is a completely reasonable thing to worry about.

48:01On the offense, Derek, we didn't talk about the pass catchers at all.

48:05I'm willing to see this in like the rosiest possible version right now.

48:08I can get there with, I think, the overall explosiveness they could bring to the table.

48:13In my opinion, it's not the same because it's not one-for-one roles.

48:16But as I think stylistically about the offense that feels scary, and I think this could be like a version of that,

48:22like kind of a funhouse mirror image of that, is like what the Lions have been over the last couple years.

48:28Where McConkie is like, it's not the same player as St.

48:31Brown, but if that's like the best pass catcher you have within the offense, it's not your traditional prototype number one receiver,

48:37but it absolutely gives you enough in terms of a guy you can build it around.

48:42Quentin Johnston and more of a Jamison Williams-esque role where we're taking drag routes 60 yards.

48:46You're getting him on these runways. Trey Harris just having that level of vertical explosion.

48:51Like even if there's a little bit of guesswork with all of those guys, I see that potentially coming together.

48:56Like I think Charlie Kohler can be like a glue guy, tight end, that does a little bit of everything.

49:02We've talked a lot about O'Marrion Hampton. And that part of it, even if those guys aren't stars now, I can see

49:08a version of the offense because the quarterback can lift it a little bit and the play caller can lift it a

49:14little bit where they feel really dangerous and dynamic on that side of the ball, even if there's not a lot of proven star power.

49:21On defense, I think it requires more guesswork. On defense, it's just a little bit harder for me to get there.

49:27Because on defense, it's like they again, they have some pretty good players, but it's like who would take the step into stardom?

49:33Like maybe this is the year for Dayon Henley and like Tarheep still is good over in a playoff game.

49:39Yes, who is taking over in a playoff game?

49:41And I think that is still my question. Whereas like you say on the offense, like there's a chance O'Marrion Hampton is just one of those running backs.

49:49Like I do think that he's talented enough that in an offense like this, he can become that.

49:54But on defense, I think it's harder for me to find like who would that guy who takes that level of step really be.

50:01I'm sorry for not mentioning Brennan Thompson as one of the guys who could really give them that gear offensively.

50:07You go ahead. You laugh until you can be their Cleef Raymond.

50:10Brennan Thompson is going to catch. He's going to catch like 18 passes and average 21 yards per reception.

50:15That's my guess. I also did mention Keaton Mitchell.

50:18Like Keaton Mitchell also I think is one of those guys that we're just like, there's a chance that there are so

50:24many dudes on this team with giddy up on offense that we're just watching a really explosive group when it's all said and done.

50:31What does success look like, Dave, for the 2026 Los Angeles Chargers?

50:34It's time to win a playoff game. It sure is.

50:37At the bare minimum, look like you belong. You know, we got to win one.

50:41We got to win a playoff game this year.

50:44Belonging is whatever. You got to win one. If they, you know, if they pull a Jags and Tredavious White makes the

50:50play of his life to seal a hotly contested entertaining game, it would be disappointing.

50:54But I could live with it. What I can't live with is them being the sacrifice of the wild card round where

51:00we just know by the end of the first quarter that this is over.

51:04Here's why I would push back on that a tiny bit.

51:07I think in a lot of circumstances, I would be okay with that.

51:11Where it feels like, all right, we took a measurable step forward as a team this year because we didn't get blown off the field.

51:18There's progress being made. How long do you think McDaniel's going to be here?

51:22Two years max. Assuming that you're making the playoffs and whatnot.

51:25And so, and that two years max, if it goes really well offensively and he's just out the door, does this feel

51:31like a missed opportunity if you were like, ah, we were plucky in a playoff game?

51:35No, you're right. I said kitschy. Win a playoff game, damn it.

51:39Sure. I think they have to win a playoff game.

51:41And it's probably going to be hard. Like they're, I don't think they're going to win this division.

51:46And so they're going to be probably the underdog in whatever game that they play in the wild card round.

51:52I don't really care. Like you've got to go win it.

51:55Because like, and I guess it would be some amount of measurable jump if they go from getting just absolutely wiped off

52:01the face of the earth the last two times they played in the playoffs to at least like, like Dave said, playing that Jags-Bills game.

52:08But the difference, like what you're saying, Robert, the Jags were a horrific football team the year before.

52:13And so them taking that measurable step to being like, we can go toe to toe with Josh Allen and the Bills.

52:19That means something. If the Chargers do that, it's like, okay, that's a little bit better than what you had done.

52:25But we already knew that you were a good team.

52:28You just reaffirming that for the third year in a row, it doesn't really do anything for me.

52:33Before we get to the Denver Broncos, let's take our second quick break.

52:37Let's get to the Denver Broncos. Our preview for the 2026 Broncos.

52:40They're off season in 60 seconds. This is an easy one.

52:43Davis Webb is the offensive coordinator. Brought back Alex Singleton and J.K.

52:47Dobbins. Traded a first round pick for Jalen Waddell.

52:49Lost John Franklin Myers and Drake Greenlaw in free agency.

52:52Drafted Tyler and Yottam in the third round. It's a quick one.

52:55It takes way less than a minute. What are you most excited about watching with the 2026 Broncos, Dave?

53:01The AFC runner up just added a top 15 wide receiver, which I genuinely think Jalen Waddell is.

53:06And I've said before, I don't think I don't think a lot of people recognize that.

53:10It's because the Miami Dolphin, the 2025 Miami Dolphins did not exist.

53:13Of course. Yeah, I think that's part of the reason.

53:16And if you don't exist for a single year in the NFL, you no longer matter.

53:21Justin Jefferson is irrelevant now. Yeah, sure. Well, did you see him, by the way, talking about that?

53:26He was like, people forgot I'm the best wide receiver in the league.

53:29I will prove to them. I'm like, but that happened.

53:32He said Mike was under attack or something like that, which that's so true.

53:36If you can't afford to fall off for even a year or you might as well not even exist.

53:41But guess what? He's awesome. I mean, I read all the I read all the stats on a show we did a

53:48couple weeks ago, but Jalen Waddell, bring him back over the time over the last four years.

53:52He's fourth in EPA per target in the league.

53:55He's seventh in explosive receptions. He's 11th in first down first downs per route run.

53:59He's 12th in yards per route run. He's I mean, where else am I going?

54:03He's 13th in the league and yak over expectation, which I think is interesting.

54:07The Denver Broncos, they have no problem generating yak because they throw a million screens because they throw a million short balls.

54:13They do not generate a ton of yak over expectation.

54:16And that is why Jalen Waddell is so fun.

54:19Jalen Waddell is the type of guy who can catch a 12 yard in and be in the end zone.

54:24And from 50, 40, 50, 60 yards out. And I think that's an important distinction compared to the other created manufacturer touch guys.

54:31They had Marvin Mims can take a screen. Marvin Mims is not taking a glance route to the house.

54:36Like that's just not the type of player he is.

54:39That is the type of player that Jalen Waddell is.

54:42Even that short post he ran from the slot in the preseason.

54:45He didn't house that. But like those are the types of plays where you see that happen.

54:50Like that's just not something they had before. Like that's just not the type of skill set within the offense that they had before.

54:56They were 25th in the league, Denver, in explosive play rate.

54:59And I have a feeling Jalen Waddell is going to change that for the better.

55:04And it's, you know, I think that's really been the only criticism with Denver during these back-to-back playoff runs is they're not a very explosive, exciting offense.

55:11And they went and traded for a guy who can change that almost single-handedly.

55:15And I think with Waddell, he changes it by what he can do with the ball in his hands.

55:20Like you said, he's one of the handful of the guys in the league who can take a slant or a glance

55:27or whatever and just make one guy miss. And all of a sudden he's got 40, 50 yards.

55:32And I do think that he absolutely has that ability.

55:34And even on the screens, like Mims can do it and he can get you a handful of yards.

55:40The ones they throw to Waddell are probably going to be even better because he's obviously pretty good at that too.

55:46I would also say that he, I think, has the chance to bring explosive plays back to the offense just by gravity.

55:52Like he's a guy where if he's running the clear out on dagger, Cortland Sutton is going to be wide the hell open.

55:58Pat Bryant is going to be wide the hell open.

56:01Like whoever it's going to be. Or if he's just running some of these, if he's running a deep over and the

56:07linebackers are like panicking and they want to get depth.

56:10Okay, well, RJ Harvey is now sitting two yards in front of the line of scrimmage with nobody even in his vicinity.

56:16Just stuff like that. I just feel like, you know, we obviously know what he's going to do with the ball in his hands.

56:23But I think just some of the opportunities he'll create because defenses are actually scared of somebody running by them and making a play.

56:30I think that is kind of also what's going to go a long way for this offense.

56:34Denver had the, this is another thing that I think Jalen Waddell can do a lot to fix.

56:39Denver had the fourth worst starting field position in the NFL last year.

56:43Part of that, their defense for as good as they were just had a very surprisingly low number of takeaways.

56:49I think it was 14 on the year. They also.

56:51Which should be better this year. I mean, that's what just normalizes.

56:55Yeah, absolutely. Their average drive distance on touchdowns was 68 yards because of that fourth longest in the league.

57:00And it took them an average of eight plays to get down the field.

57:04This was a very methodical team when it was good.

57:07And obviously we talked plenty about how inconsistent it was just having that guy who can get you in the end zone

57:13in one or two or three or four plays like this team did not have three or four play scoring drives.

57:19And ideally, I think Jalen Waddell can fix that.

57:21Another thing tied to everything I just said, they were also 30th in the NFL and special teams DVOA, which for a

57:27team with the expectations that the Broncos have, probably something you want to fix this year.

57:32There were nine and two in games decided by seven points or fewer last year.

57:36Nine and two. I thought it was 11 and two.

57:39I think seven points or seven points or fewer.

57:41Reading Barnwell's column right now that he did about the teams most likely to regress this year.

57:46But like you said, the fact that the turnovers is something that could be a little bit better if we're trying to

57:52figure out what's on either side of the ledger with regression with the Broncos.

57:56In theory, if they take the ball away a little bit more often, does that one score record matter a little bit less?

58:03Having I mean, if this team could have some short fields with a receiver who can do what Jalen Waddell does, I

58:09just I think that could be huge. I mine was on the other side of the ball just quickly.

58:14Like I just think sometimes we don't talk enough about the Broncos as one of those like terrorizing pass rush teams like

58:20the way we do about the Texans like the Broncos do have that gear to them and I think consistently showed that last year.

58:27Next Gen, third and medium to long last year when the Broncos brought five, they had a 73% pressure rate.

58:33What? 73% when they blitzed on third and medium to long last year.

58:36No other team in the league was above 67%.

58:39Their pressure stuff last year, especially when they started bringing the safeties.

58:42And we'll see what that world looks like without Jim Leonard, who I think probably had a hand and how some of those pressures were built.

58:49But Vance Joseph is a really good defensive coach.

58:52And I think the layers they added to the pass rush over the course of the year in part because they had

58:58to in the front in the first half of last season, they had a 55% pressure rate when bringing for the Broncos did.

59:04It was 37% in the back half of the year.

59:07And so they started blitzing a lot more on third down last year than they did in the first half of the year.

59:14But when they had to tap into that, some of the stuff that they're able to pull out is phenomenal.

59:19And so that version of this Broncos defense where we're going to run some crazy shit on third and eight, and we're

59:25going to be able to play man behind it because we have the best cornerback in the world.

59:30I'm excited to watch that again, because that is, I think, my favorite thing about this team.

59:35When you mentioned the regression, the fact that they were for most of the year, what, the third best defense in the league?

59:42Probably they fell off a tad at the end.

59:44But I think you would probably say over the course of the year, probably the third or fourth best defense in the league and didn't really generate turnovers.

59:52If that flips at all with as much as volatility as they bring with all the crazy stuff that Vance Joseph is

59:58doing, like they just get a couple more fumbles, strip sacks, whatever it's going to be like this team.

60:03That's how they fight off the regression of, you know, winning a lot of close games the way that they did.

60:09What are you watching the first month of the season?

60:12Derek, with the Denver Broncos. Mine is kind of specific.

60:15And I think part of that is just this roster is like really good.

60:19Like, it's just a really good and clean roster.

60:21So it's kind of hard to figure out, like, and it's a lot of bringing back a lot of the same pieces.

60:28I think for me, though, I am curious about what does the rotation at running back look like?

60:33Because I think, you know, they brought in RJ Harvey last year and I think expected him to or wanted him to

60:39be a huge part of the offense. And he scored a bunch of touchdowns.

60:43But I think they probably want to get him a little bit more work in the passing game.

60:48But can he really hold up in pass protection?

60:50Interesting. And then Jonah Coleman, who they drafted this year, has been pretty good for them.

60:55But they also still have J.K. Dobbins, who started and played fairly well last year.

60:59I think, you know, is a little bit banged up this camp, as he often is, unfortunately.

61:04But I think they still expect him to be a pretty big part of this rotation, too.

61:08So I think just trying to figure out how much they want to lean on different parts of this rotation and like,

61:14can RJ Harvey be a little bit more consistent?

61:17Because I think it's very obvious that he is a good explosive player and he can be a decent pass catcher for you.

61:23But I think part of why the Broncos run game feels a little bit lacking is that for as efficient as J.K.

61:30Dobbins can be, he's not maybe as explosive or as elusive as you want.

61:34And RJ Harvey is the opposite, where he is pretty explosive, but he's just going to get you three yards when seven

61:40is blocked sometimes just because he's a little bit blind with stuff like that.

61:44So I think just figuring out how this rotation works out, I think, is pretty interesting to me because it could go

61:50a number of different ways, I think. Going back to the defense, mine is just acknowledging the elephant in the room, which

61:56is don't 100% for sure know what's going on with Jonathan Cooper right now.

62:00And actually, as we record this, he's a week away from an arraignment.

62:03He was arrested twice in June over a variety of charges stemming from a domestic dispute with his girlfriend.

62:09So from what I understand, he enters a plea in a week.

62:12From there, he gets a trial date that might not even come till 2027.

62:16So no idea what's to come with the legal process.

62:19But then the NFL's system for determining the personal conduct policy is its own world.

62:23So is that something that hangs over Cooper and the Broncos all year?

62:27Is Cooper facing a suspension before the season starts or during the season?

62:30How all of that plays out is something I have a close eye on and doesn't feel like it's being talked enough about.

62:37And then on top of that, I have no idea if this will happen.

62:41But if Jonathan Cooper is unavailable for the Denver Broncos, what you just talked about, like when I think about Denver, obviously

62:47Nick Benito is an amazing player and you still have Zach Allen.

62:50But the thing about Denver is it just feels so overwhelming with the number of guys they have that can generate pressure.

62:56Jonathan Franklin Myers is already gone. So if you take Jonathan Cooper out of that equation, sure, you still have your two

63:02top pressure guys, but three and four are now removed.

63:05And does the Denver defense feel lacking compared to what we got used to?

63:09If that's the case, I'm getting way ahead of myself because we don't even know what's going to happen with Jonathan Cooper.

63:15But when one of your best defenders status is up in the air, I think that's worth highlighting.

63:20I mean, he's got he had 51 pressures last year.

63:23He has 112 over the last two years. That's top 20 in the NFL over the last two seasons.

63:28He's been a very meaningful piece of this, even if Allen and Benito rightfully get more publicity.

63:33And so I'm curious about that. You mentioned on Yatam, not surprisingly, in the preseason, he's looked like a rookie defensive tackle.

63:39He has one pressure and 30 pass rush snaps.

63:42So I don't know if it's realistic to think that he can step in and be a meaningful piece of this right

63:48away, or maybe that's something worth watching over the first month.

63:51But just all the young guys, I mean, they're just going to be relying on more of those in-house draft picks from

63:57the last few years in a world where John Franklin Myers isn't playing.

64:01I don't know how many snaps exactly he played last year, but obviously it was a very key part of that rotation overall.

64:07And you're not going to have him to rely on, and you're going to have to lean on some of those young

64:13players on Yatam and the other guys they've drafted over the last few years more than you would.

64:19And that's in a world where they have Jonathan Cooper, which they might, like I said, it's impossible to speak confidently about

64:25what's going to happen there, but it just feels like a potentially tenuous situation.

64:29John Franklin Myers played 516 snaps last year and had 39 pressures.

64:32And so that those have to get replaced somewhere along the way.

64:35It was fourth on the team after Nick Benito, Zach Allen, and Jonathan Cooper.

64:39And so you don't get to 68 sacks with two guys.

64:42Like the Broncos have had four and at times even six, and it just starts to feel a little thinner.

64:48That's, it's not quite keeping me up at night, but I do think it is a reservation to at least bring up.

64:54This team added no one to its defense. No one.

64:57And so it's a little bit, I mean, again, they only really lost John Franklin Myers.

65:01Dre Greenwald didn't play last year, so it's not as if they lost his production.

65:05But I do think that it just feels a little bit more fragile than it has in years past, in part because they didn't really add any depth.

65:13They are banking on a lot of those in-house guys.

65:16And I'll say this, the defense last year was phenomenal.

65:19And it was, the numbers are fantastic when you actually look at how well they did when playing base defense, which when

65:25you think about the linebackers and the safeties on this team, I, even with those numbers, I still think there were moments

65:31when teams were really trying to isolate Jones and Hufanga and the linebackers in coverage, the Giants game.

65:36I keep coming back to that Giants game where the Giants were able to get in some of those heavier personnel groupings

65:42and get explosive against that collection of players. That's the area of this, of this defense room.

65:47Like, can you still pick on those guys enough in coverage if the pass rush isn't that hellacious group that we're talking about?

65:54Well, and this is always such like a shitty thing to have to bring up, but like we're talking about some of the regression points.

66:01This was for the most part, like a very healthy Denver defense last year.

66:05Yes. Like, and that's the fragility part. That's kind of what I have in the back of my mind.

66:10I think they were third in adjusted games lost on defense last year.

66:13Just looked it up. Yes, they were third. And like, you know, I know Patrick Chetan wasn't fully healthy towards the end.

66:20You know, he got banged up, missed a couple of games, and I don't think he was fully himself by the end.

66:26And so that's certainly part of it. But again, like, sure, their top 11 guys, like whoever their starters are going to

66:32be, are going to be really good. And they weathered some stuff at safety last year.

66:36You know, PJ Locke had to play a handful of games, but for the most part, they were very healthy.

66:42And so if Cooper is going to miss games, you pull John Franklin Myers out of the equation.

66:47I know that people are like, oh, you know, Dre Greenlaw missed a lot of time last year.

66:52And it's like, sure. So then Justin Sternod is coming off the bench for you to be a decent spot starter.

66:58Well, now he's just the week one starter. What if he gets hurt?

67:02Now you're starting maybe Red Murdoch, who's a seventh round pick for you.

67:05It's just like, it's just one of those things that even if they're just average-ish in terms of games lost and guys

67:11going down, it does start to chip away at a team that, you know, they've got depth at certain spots.

67:17Like, obviously, if Cooper misses time, they're not going to have the same level of pass rush, but like, their rotational guys are fine.

67:24Like Jonah Ellis can be okay. Jonah Ellis, you can be non-Jonah Ellis in those situations and be okay.

67:29Yeah, but it just won't feel the same. Like, they won't be the fourth best defense.

67:33They might be the 11th best defense if they've got to weather some of this stuff.

67:38And I just don't know if that is enough unless the offense really takes an insane step for that to be the

67:44team that they really want to be. All right.

67:47Well, that brings us perfectly to our little transition here.

67:49What is keeping you up at night, Derek, about the 2026 Denver Broncos?

67:53I think the QB as an individual is kind of just okay.

67:56And he's coming off of two ankle surgeries. And I'm a little bit worried about that.

68:01And I'm a little bit worried about that specifically, because a lot of the stuff that he even does well is banked off of him being mobile.

68:08It's being outside of the pocket. It's him being rolled out.

68:11It's him being a designed runner, being a really good scrambler.

68:15I just worry if any of that is five to 10% kind of diminished, and maybe he doesn't have the same like

68:21being able to step into some of his throws that he wants, because maybe the ankle is hurting him a little bit,

68:27that you just don't get as much the efficiency and consistency as you really would have wanted from what this offense should be now with Jalen Waddle.

68:34Maybe you didn't hear it. It's Jalen Waddle's here, though, Derek.

68:37Maybe you didn't hear that part. It's all going to be easy.

68:41Every slant's going to the house. If he can get him there.

68:44Wow. We alluded to this a little bit earlier in the week when we were talking about just teams where the passing

68:50game consistency is an area of concern for me.

68:53And that's where I land with the Broncos. Last year, NextGen stats, 44.5% passing success rate for Bo Nix last season.

68:59It was 19th in the NFL. It was behind Michael Penix and Tua.

69:02And the EPA numbers look better because he's giving you some explosive plays.

69:06He's giving you a lot as a scrambler. And I think the other part of this, Bo Nix is the only player

69:12in the NFL last season that had a better mark when you combine the sack EPA and the scramble EPA was Patrick Mahomes.

69:19It was negative 10 overall for Bo Nix last year when you combine the sacks and the scrambles.

69:24That's a phenomenal number. And he doesn't throw that many picks.

69:27And he's not turning the ball over. And so the value, like the expected points part of the Broncos offense, you understand why they get there.

69:34But down to down, the lack of consistency down to down is, I think, what leads to some of the frustration.

69:40And so the fact that, again, 19th in passing success rate last year, you can square that with really good efficiency numbers

69:46in part because they're not taking a lot of negative plays and there are valuable plays they're creating with some of the scrambles.

69:52So I get that. But down to down, can I rely on this passing game in the biggest games of the year

69:59when some of the teams are throwing some of the junk at them, they're likely going to.

70:03It was funny looking up some of the numbers on this.

70:06They weren't necessarily surprising when I think about how I consider Bo Nix and some of the quarterbacks I would compare him to.

70:13Last year, the only quarterbacks in the NFL that saw more zone defense than Bo Nix were Tyler Shuck and Tua.

70:19We talked about the Tua part. That's a Mike McDaniel receiver motion thing.

70:22And it kind of reminds me of how teams used to play against like Russell Wilson.

70:27Yeah. Where I'm going to make you read this stuff out.

70:30I'm going to make you I'm going to take away the easy decision for you when Bo's at his best.

70:35We're doing sluggos outside of the numbers. He's throwing go balls like he is making quick decisions.

70:40He's accurate with the football. And you're combining that, like Derek said, with some of the both off schedule and on the move stuff that he gives you.

70:48But when you're making him chew on things a little bit more, what does that look like?

70:53And the numbers against zone coverage last year lead you to that place.

70:56The only guys with a worse success rate versus zone coverage last year than Bo.

71:01Bryce Young, Tyler Shuck, Geno, Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Hurts, Joe Flacco, Cam Ward.

71:04The only guys with a lower explosive play rate against zone coverage last year, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Ward and Geno.

71:10That's the step that I think needs to happen.

71:13And like Derek said, where he can hurt you is in a specific enough way where I think we need a little

71:19bit more breadth to that for you to feel like the Broncos passing game is ready to get them over the top.

71:25I feel like a protective football coach protecting the quarterback because the thing I'm losing sleep about is not Bo Nix getting

71:31better, which everything you just said is totally fair.

71:34But I am sitting here losing sleep about wanting more from the run game.

71:38Like, how can I help Bo Nix be better without Bo Nix actually having to be better, basically?

71:43And it pisses me off that we know how good the Broncos offensive line is.

71:47Derek mentioned that they've got a pretty solid stable of running backs.

71:50The running game's not bad, but it's not good.

71:53It's not good. It's always been a little bit middling considering how good the offensive line is.

71:58One of my consistent frustration points with this team.

72:00Across two years with Bo Nix, they are firmly in the middle of the pack in any metric you want to look at.

72:07They did have 51 explosive runs last year. A lot of that was Bo.

72:1134 explosive runs by running backs, which is 20th in the NFL.

72:14And that's not to penalize Bo Nix for being athletic.

72:17That's a good thing. But A, he is coming off of an ankle injury.

72:21You probably want to protect him a little bit.

72:23And B, take some of the load off of him to be that playmaker.

72:27Like, let's pop some big plays in the running game.

72:30Dobbins, I think he can do it. He was actually, he was one of only eight running backs to carry the ball

72:36100 plus times last year and average five yards per carry.

72:39It's just that he has durability issues. There's no way around that.

72:42I mean, he was done for the year last year on November 1st, I think.

72:47And so he pinky promised us though. He pinky promises he's going to play 17 games this year.

72:52We're holding him to that. I hope he's right.

72:54I really hope he's right. Another fun stat I wanted to share with y'all.

72:58I think it gets lost that RJ Harvey scored 12 touchdowns last year.

73:02Derek, yeah. Derek alluded to that. A lot of touchdowns.

73:05Not a lot of else. Not a lot else.

73:07The only, okay. But the only rookies that scored more touchdowns than RJ Harvey over the last decade are Zeke, Saquon and Alvin Kamara.

73:14I just think that's crazy. Like you do not think of RJ Harvey as having a season like that.

73:19But this is a talented backfield between Jonah Coleman.

73:22I mean, he's been my guy since last college football season.

73:25Harvey, you hope Scott more to show in year two.

73:27And if Dobbins is healthy, this is a good stable of backs.

73:31The offensive line is good. I would like to think that this could be better than a middle of the pack running game.

73:37And if it is on top of adding Jalen Waddell to the mix, maybe you don't need Bo to be that much

73:43more than what he was last year. And I, I think that could go a long way.

73:48It's Jalen Waddell and it's the, there's a new play caller, right?

73:52And so I'm curious, like how much about the offense changes?

73:55Jalen Waddell came from a place where they use more motion than any team in the league over the last few years.

74:01The Broncos were 30th in the NFL in motion rate.

74:04What does the Davis Webb offense look like? Is there a little bit more movement?

74:08Does it feel a little bit more dynamic? Does Jalen Waddell really kind of fill in some of the gaps we've seen from this passing game?

74:15Pat Bryant, we have not mentioned yet. Like Pat Bryant being like a big physical presence in the middle of the field

74:21and being an inside outside flex guy that you can use with Jalen Waddell.

74:25I'm open to the idea that the passing game can get better in a world where Davis Webb is calling plays and that there's a smooth transition there.

74:33We add Jalen Waddell to the mix and the quarterback takes a step, but we talked about a little bit earlier this

74:39week, two teams in the last 10 years have won the Superbowl with a passing success rate outside the top 10 to get inside the top 10.

74:47You usually need to clear like 48% and usually get up near 50, 44 and a half percent for the Broncos last year.

74:53That is a big gap. Like to be the sort of offensive, to be the sort of passing game that typically can win a Superbowl.

75:00That is a big gap that you have to fill in.

75:03There are reasons to believe that can happen with what they've done this off season and some of the in-house improvements that

75:09you might see from the Pat Bryants of the world.

75:12But I think we have to see it for you to feel really good.

75:16Maybe not for you to feel really good about them counting coming out of let's call a normal AFC because I think

75:22that would be a retort from people. Well, they almost won the Superbowl last year.

75:26It was weird last year. Yeah. Last year was getting acknowledged that it was weird.

75:31It's going to be less weird this year. Yeah.

75:33Last year was like historically bad chief season where Patrick Mahomes gets hurt.

75:37Josh Allen by the end is throwing to Brandon Cooks in the playoffs.

75:40Lamar Jackson's team like completely explodes because he's not healthy.

75:43Like Joe Burrow was basically never healthy the entire like they need Josh Allen to turn the ball over 17 times in

75:49order to win that game against the Bills. And so I again, I think we can see a a scarier version of

75:55Broncos offense that has more teeth than it has had over the last couple years.

76:00But I think that version needs to emerge for them to be the sort of team they want to be this year

76:06with the sort of aspirations that they have. David, what does success look like speaking of for the 2026 Denver Broncos?

76:12Prove it's not a fluke. And I don't care about the win loss record because 14 and three is a hard thing

76:18to do year over year, even for somebody. I don't think they're winning 14 games again.

76:22I think that's okay. No, that's my that's my point, though.

76:25You don't have to win 14 games, win 11 and look for real and win the AFC West again.

76:31And and you know, I think people talk about them as being prime for regression because the one score games and you know how how consistent is this?

76:38How much volatility is there? Prove that prove that you can do this again and be one of the league's best teams.

76:45You know, I get two years in a row for sure.

76:48And then I mean, three straight playoff trips is a hell of a statement as well.

76:52I think it's get back to the AFC championship game, but have a real shot this time.

76:57Yes, I was just going to say like, I think Final Four is that's what you should be aiming for.

77:03And like, I just think that if you have what could and should be a top five or six defense in an

77:09offense that you're hoping makes to jump into the top eight, I think if you just paste those numbers on top of

77:15any team, any logo, any helmet, that should be a team that should be in the Final Four.

77:20Yeah, I think that's the high bar to clear, but I would like to get like six beers in a Broncos fan

77:26and ask them if you guys didn't make the AFC championship game, would you be disappointed?

77:31I think the answer would be yes. A hundred percent, because again, I think again, I can quibble about whatever the quarterback is and all that stuff.

77:38I think if we remove the quarterback from the situation, this might be the best roster in football.

77:43That should, you should probably get to the AFC.

77:46Obviously the Rams are up there. The Eagles and the Rams have a case.

77:50But they are like, they at least have an argument that this is the most complete.

77:54They're probably more complete. I think some teams like the Rams, like maybe the absolute and the Eagles, like the absolute star

78:00power is a little higher, but I think completeness, like the Broncos are a pretty like holistic roster.

78:05It feels like. The Broncos have Walmart money. So they're a little bit immune to this.

78:10Like, I mean, they can pay whoever they want and they can do shit to make their lives easier, but it's always

78:16easier to just get the trophy before you have to pay the quarterback.

78:19Like there's an, there's an urgency to get that done before you have to worry about Bo's money, even though the Broncos can afford whatever they want to.

78:27Let's get to our last one here. The Las Vegas Raiders are 2026 Las Vegas Raiders preview.

78:32They're off season in 60 seconds. Hired Clint Kubiak as their head coach retained Rob Leonard and promoted him defensive coordinator.

78:38Signed Tyler Linderbaum for just an insane, obnoxious amount of money.

78:41I'm so happy for Tyler Linderbaum. Quiddy pay for three years.

78:44Quay Walker, N'Kobe Dean, Jalen Naylor brought in Kirk Cousins as the call him temporary starting quarterback.

78:49Lost Jamal Adams and a Landon Roberts in free agency in the draft.

78:52Fernando Mendoza in the first round, trading Stukes in the second round, Kearon Crawford and Trey Zune in the third round.

78:58And we'll mention Jermot McCoy in the fourth round because that is not a normal fourth round pick.

79:03What are you most excited about watching with the 2026 Raiders, Derek?

79:07Brock Bowers and Ashton Gentey with an NFL play caller.

79:10I know that I did this last year where I was like, oh, I'm excited to watch Ashton Gentey and Brock Bowers.

79:16Derek is ready to be heard again. I am.

79:18I literally, I have somewhere in my own notes that like I'll slip on the banana peel again.

79:23How are you doing on Sunday night when the Gentey practice injury news hit?

79:27That freaked me out, but was also like the most misleading initial report ever.

79:31Like it seems like they're like, he's not going to like miss the season or anything, but when it first came out,

79:37everyone made it seem like he died. I think it was Hayden Winks tweeted it, which was very funny.

79:43He's like, the injury has just gotten lower and lower on his leg as we've gone.

79:47Now it's a low ankle sprain. At a certain point, it'll just be like, he stepped on a nail.

79:52They said on the afternoon that there was a prayer circle involved and I just, I wrote him off for the year.

79:58So that was, they said everybody like stopped to practice.

80:01And I was like, it's shit. It sounds like the Teddy Bridgewater thing.

80:05Like, is he okay? And it seems like he'll be fine.

80:08So as long as we get the, if they can get to the season week one, we'll be good.

80:13Like I just, and, and Bauer should be healthy this year.

80:16That was the other thing is obviously going into the last year.

80:20Bowers, I think it was healthy, but by week two or three, he was already getting banged up and he still had a pretty good season.

80:27So I just think him being healthy, Jente having a chance behind, again, what should be like an NFL adult offensive line and, you know, play calling situation.

80:35I'm just excited about what those two can look like because I think talent wise, it's not even just that they're good.

80:41I think we talked about this last year. If you have an elite tight end and one of the top, let's say

80:4710 running backs, you know, maybe Jente's a little bit better than that.

80:51It's just kind of a unique identity as an offense.

80:54And I think I'm just excited for what that could look like.

80:57That's, that is my answer is Clint Kubiak having an encore as this difference-making play call or the way that he was last year.

81:04Can he sustain that as a head coach? Not everybody can.

81:07And what does that offense look like when you're channeling it through these players?

81:11I feel like we've never really seen that before.

81:13And so I was trying to, first of all, the first thing that's worth mentioning here, I'm already more invested in this

81:19Raiders team than I care to be. I swung a trade for Brock Bowers in my like long time keeper league.

81:25And I, I'm very excited about the prospect of what can be waiting for me as part of that.

81:30But it also puts a real deep fear into my soul.

81:34We're just dogs chasing cars. I'm not, I'm not happy about it, but I think it was the right choice.

81:39But in order to kind of build the excitement for that, I'm trying to figure out like, all right, what does this role look like?

81:46Like this type of offensive system channeled through a tight end.

81:49Have we ever really seen that before? Where like the tight end is the most important pass catcher on this type of offense?

81:56At some point, George Kittle with the Niners. I think that you can make that argument, but they're very different players.

82:02Exactly. Like Kittle is a true inline why, like part of why he works is that you're always scared of what the

82:08run game is going to look like when he's on the field and when he's on the ball.

82:13And like Bowers is an acceptable blocker. I don't think he's like a guy like an Isaiah Likely.

82:18You just can't put him out there at all, but he's not the best blocker even on his own team at that position.

82:24So I do think it is a little bit different.

82:27I actually, Robert, I had a thought about what his role might look like.

82:31And we did this after the, we were doing research for the play caller show and stuff like that.

82:36I almost feel like they should draw a little bit of inspiration from what the Falcons were doing with both Kyle Pitts

82:42and Drake London, like letting Bowers be like some amalgamation of both of those players.

82:47That's interesting. I landed on an amalgamation behind some of the things they were doing with JSN last year and the way

82:53that they deployed Elijah Arroyo within that offense. Yeah.

82:55So, and that's what the JSN stuff. It's a combination of, I went back and I was watching so many of JSN's catches last year.

83:02And I think I forgot how many manufactured touches they created within that offense for JSN, whether it was just access throws, screens, stuff out of the backfield.

83:10Like the, all of that stuff is applicable to what Bowers can give you.

83:14He can't give you the vertical stuff, but he can give you all the manufactured stuff.

83:18And so I think there's some of that. And then you go back and watch some of the ways they're using Arroyo.

83:25When he was in line, it was all vertical stuff off play action.

83:28Like we're not asking you to do anything as a blocker, just run fast.

83:32Let's be explosive. Bowers can do some of that slide routes just, and they were lining up Arroyo at number one in some of those situations.

83:39And the other part of this that I find really like, okay, how can we create opportunities for an unconventional player?

83:45The amount of empty that the Seahawks used last year and being able to kind of put any guy at any one

83:51of the five spots, Seattle had 81 empty dropbacks for Darnold last year.

83:55That was third in the NFL. And so that allows you to kind of tweak roles and use them in unconventional ways

84:01because you can truly blind him up in any one of those five positions.

84:05And so I think there's more evidence for what it can look like than I probably thought there was when I was

84:11thinking about this offense over the course of the summer.

84:14But I still think there's enough of a mystery where I'm really excited to unwrap and see what it looks like early in the season.

84:21Y'all are such nerds. Yes. Well, even as Robert was saying the empty thing, I was like, man, Michael Mayer is like a credible receiver.

84:28Gentty can actually line up outside. Like they've got the dudes to do this.

84:32Your biggest sicko awards are in the mail because I can't believe we just did six minutes on all of that.

84:38He's an incredible player. Like what it looks like is very important.

84:41The most exciting thing about the Raiders is when we get to see Fernando Mendoza full stop.

84:46I don't care if that's basic. Brock Bowers is awesome.

84:49With all due respect to Brock Bowers and Ashton Gentty and Colton Miller and Max Crosby and a bunch of other really, really talented professional athletes.

84:56Can you hear the drums, Fernando? Like that's what I want to know about the Las Vegas Raiders.

85:01And I'll say this. He had his growing pains in the preseason against the Texans.

85:05I don't care. This guy doesn't need to red shirt.

85:08He arguably doesn't need to sit at all. In my opinion, I think we just do the Drake May thing where he's

85:14on the bench to start the season, throw him in there week six or just you let's just play it out.

85:20Let's just let's just see how they feel it's time.

85:23Exactly. There there is no urgency here. I think Kirk is going to give you enough where it's not going to be embarrassing.

85:29You're not lying to the locker room. And I think that Fernando's presence there, I think, has been good for Kirk and

85:35just like the urgency that he's played with over the course of the summer.

85:39And so the same way with the with the Patriots, part of the reason he did not play early on.

85:45And I think this is a reasonable concern if you're the if you're the Raiders.

85:49It's not about him. It's do we think the rest of the offense is in a place where it is responsible to

85:55put him out there in week one, even if I think Clint Kubiak can account for some of the systemic concerns up

86:01front and that offensive line will look significantly better independent of the talent than it did last year because it's more under center play action.

86:08It's heavier personnel groupings. The number I looked up last year, DJ Glaze finished fifth in the NFL in true pass sets.

86:15Fifth, that's not happening this year. I'll tell you that right now.

86:18You look at those numbers for Charles Cross and Abe Lucas last year, it's down near the bottom.

86:2351% of DJ Glaze's past blocking snaps last year were in true pass sets.

86:27It was 41% for Charles Cross. So even beyond Tyler Linderbaum, that group is going to be lifted in a way schematically it wasn't last year.

86:34But we're still talking about talent wise, a bottom six, seven offensive line, a group of receivers where the best one is Trey Tucker, Jalen Naylor.

86:41There's a lot of uncertainty. And so let's just see what the team is over the first month.

86:46Let's just roll the ball out. Let cake, let Kirk take some lumps.

86:50And naturally this will figure itself out. I think that is the approach I would take if I were the Raiders.

86:56I have some thoughts that I will save for the successful season portion of the segment.

87:00I think the thing I want to say about Kirk and this is not even to say that this is going to

87:07mean anything in terms of him staving off Fernando Mendoza, but I do legitimately think Kirk Cousins is a better quarterback than

87:13most of the guys who are placeholders for X top five pick.

87:16Like Kirk still gives you like not good NFL quarterback play anymore, but like acceptable in a way that like when the

87:22Patriots were rolling out that roster with like Jacoby Brissett, like Brissett can do stuff with a decent roster.

87:28That roster just had nothing doing and he's not going to give you that.

87:32Whereas I do think Kirk Cousins is like a rung above that.

87:35And so I think it at least, and I think because of that, you will get a clearer look of like, how ready is this offense?

87:42Like, I think when it was like Jacoby Brissett with the Patriots, it was like, they've just got nothing and he can't move.

87:49So like, I have no idea if this is any good.

87:52I think if Kirk looks acceptable, you'll be like, okay, I think this offense actually has what it needs that week seven

87:58Fernando Mendoza can come in and he's going to give us some.

88:01I'm with you on that. And again, I do think the floor is considerably higher because of the systemic things an offense

88:07like this is going to give you. That was not the case in New England two years ago.

88:12There was nothing to, there was no floor created.

88:15I think there will be a floor in this situation.

88:18The famous last words. I think we said that truly burned by it, but I'm going off of what Clint Kubiak did last year.

88:24Like I was talking to somebody in Vegas this week and we were just talking about Clint and his personality and him being a head coach.

88:32And I was, we were just going over like how impressed I was with the job he did last year, because we talked about this a lot.

88:39There are two different buckets when you're an offensive coordinator, but you're the figurehead of the offense.

88:44There's offensive architecture, which that's the marriage of the run of the pass, all the play action, helping out the offensive lineman.

88:50That's just by design. There's also the play calling stuff.

88:53He was such a good play caller situationally. Some of the wrinkles that they had, like he is one of those guys that I'm excited to watch.

89:00And I think that being the starting point does give me a certain level of confidence about the floor of the offense.

89:07And I think that gives me a certain level of confidence about what it will look like when they decide it's time for Fernando Mendoza.

89:14I will say the Drake may experience helped teach me not like not to sweat it too much.

89:19Like when and how Fernando gets in there. Let it happen, man.

89:22I have more to say, but we'll, we'll save it.

89:25We'll save it for the end. What are you watching in the first month of the season?

89:30Dave, when it comes to the Las Vegas Raiders outside of Fernando, if I'm looking elsewhere, all of a sudden the Raiders

89:36entire secondary is just full of young players. Like the whole thing, really other than obviously you have Eric Stokes and they traded for Teron Johnson.

89:43Jeremy Chen is still there. You're not going to roll the ball out there with rookies playing everywhere in week one, but

89:49Darian Porter is a year two player. You draft trading Stokes 38th overall fun as hell, by the way, go watch if

89:55you, I'm sure I was, I liked him as a prospect.

89:58He looked good Raiders preseason snaps. It's very, very encouraging stuff.

90:01Well, in the depth chart, you guys are looking at for the Raiders defense right now.

90:06We, we made this when Isaiah Polamau was still taking a lot of the snaps with the ones trading Stokes.

90:11Apparently this week, Sam Warren, Sam Warren, he was working with the ones.

90:15And so that's already outdated in the most fun way possible that we're going to get a rookie essentially getting a little bit more run in that spot.

90:23What I really liked in the preseason was trading Stokes is, I mean, incredible athlete, the range he brings to safety.

90:29That's the calling card. Yes. The physicality you saw from him in that preseason game.

90:33That to me was, can he play safety in the NFL after playing nickel at Arizona?

90:37And he's flying downhill. I, he's a fun, exciting player.

90:40He delivers a thump too. Like he's, he, you can feel him on tape and he's, he's been really fun.

90:46And Derek, I saw it. You had the same note when we compared notes before the show, Hezekiah Massas has been turning

90:52some heads at Raiders training camp as well. So I don't mean to suggest that they're going to trot out there with

90:58five rookies in the secondary in week one, but they have young, intriguing, exciting players on a team that's been lacking talent in the first place.

91:05This is a situation where if those guys take the, the, the baton and run with it, you can experiment with those things.

91:12So how Rob Leonard is the DC in Vegas.

91:14How does he tune those dials and what sorts of looks do the rookie DBs get?

91:19And in the year two guys, how does it all come together?

91:22And from week one until week six, what does that look like?

91:26Hopefully trading Stukes and maybe Hezekiah Massas. I would assume Jermaud McCoy is not in this place, but if he really grows

91:32by leaps and bounds and looks like that crazy talented player that people that he was in the pre-draft process, this could

91:38be a situation where your secondary in week 10 looks so much different than week one and week two.

91:43And so that's, that's something that I have a close eye on.

91:47I just liked that. They've so clearly built this room now with the resources where it's like, a point in December where

91:53they're pleasantly surprised by how this thing has turned out.

91:56Like Stukes really gives them something and maybe one of those young corners is able to give them something.

92:01And like, I just think that they've made this in a spot where not all of these rookies are going to, you

92:07know, steal jobs in year one and do all this stuff.

92:10But if one or two of them can be like, this is a guy we want to give continued snaps to and

92:16be a part of our long-term process here. I think that that is absolutely awesome.

92:20And then mine is kind of related to just like all the rookies on this team.

92:25Like they drafted Kieran Crawford, who is probably going to be on their second wave of pass rushers.

92:30He was the guy that I kind of liked at Auburn.

92:33And we talk about Fernando Mendoza on offense, but they draft Mike Washington as the second right.

92:38I think he's going to be the second running back.

92:41He's looked very explosive in the preseason. And if, if Gentry has to miss any amount of time, I mean, I just

92:47assume that he's going to take a lion's share of, of the load there.

92:51He will. And I think he'll be a part of this plan, even if Gentry is healthy because of how good he's looked early on.

92:58And he's just a different kind of runner, right?

93:00Like, I mean, he's big, but he's just like straight line North South, crazy speed.

93:04And like Gentry's got some pop to him, but it is a little bit different with Washington, I think.

93:10And then Trey Zune, them just bringing in a third rounder where it's still a very unsettled offensive line.

93:15And I think that there's just a chance that he's a guy who I think coming in out of the pre-draft process,

93:21part of his appeal is that he's got a little bit of flexibility in terms of, can he play tackle?

93:27Can he play guard? Can he even move to center?

93:29And so I think that it's such an unsettled offensive line, really outside of, I think, center and left tackle, that them

93:36just having that built-in flexibility there, I think is really nice for them.

93:39As it currently stands, the way that I understand it, four spots on the offensive line should be relatively set based on how camp is gone.

93:47Cole Miller at left tackle, Spencer Burford at left guard, Ty Leonard Baum at center, DJ Glaze at right tackle.

93:52Right guard, I think, is the spot that still needs some answers about it.

93:56And I think the two guys that are mostly in line in that competition right now are Jackson Powers, Johnson and Caleb

94:02Rogers, who's the third round pick from last year.

94:05And then it sounds like Trey Zune could potentially get in the mix over the course of the year.

94:10But right now, I think four of those spots are kind of held down as we sit here on August 25th.

94:16All right. That's a lot of, I think, optimistic framing for what the chart, what the Raiders season could look like.

94:22We have to talk about the other side of this.

94:25Dave, what is keeping you up at night about the 2026 Las Vegas Raiders?

94:28I'm going to look in my one shot over here when I say this, if you're watching.

94:33Raiders, Clint Kubiak, don't you ruin Ashton Jenty's career for God's sake, please.

94:37We already talked about the injury scare on Sunday, and fortunately, it sounds like he dodged a bullet.

94:42I don't have a timetable of when they expect him back, but he's going to play this year, which on Sunday afternoon, I was not convinced.

94:49But that just throws into stark contrast for me just how bad it was for Ashton Jenty last year, which it's funny.

94:55It's funny to talk about this because I was just talking with a friend about the Jenty injury on Sunday, and I

95:01was like, I can't believe how poorly his career has gone to this point.

95:05And this person, my friend, was like, he had a thousand yards last year.

95:09What do you mean? And I was like, no, no, no, no, no.

95:13Running through a brick wall for the entire season, which is impressive.

95:16To an insane degree. I was just curious. I wanted to look at over the last, this decade from 2020 to 2025,

95:22over those years, 282 running backs have carried the ball 100 plus times in a season.

95:27Ashton Jenty ranks in the fourth percentile in EPA per rush, sixth percentile in success rate, and in the first percentile in

95:33the percentage of negative and zero yard rushes that he had.

95:3627% of his rushes last year were for zero or negative yards.

95:40It's the third worst number since 2020. Just abysmal shit.

95:42And by the way, his 321 touches as a rookie only trail Najee Harris for running backs in the 2020s.

95:48Like they gave him the ball a shitload of times.

95:51They had nowhere else to turn. Okay. And that's fine.

95:54But, and, and for what, and what does that do to a young running backs career longevity hopes to be an explosive

96:00player deeper into his twenties and potentially into his thirties?

96:02I have a high degree of confidence for the reasons you outlined earlier.

96:06Clint Kubiak's not going to let that happen. I think he's really good at his job and I think the infrastructure is

96:12better, but I can't say I fully trust the Las Vegas Raiders either.

96:16And Ashton Jenty is way too good to be 26 years old.

96:19And we're like, Oh man, I thought that was going to be a lot better.

96:23Like his college tape was incredible. He was a singular player at Boise state.

96:27And I don't remember anything cool happening in his NFL career that keeps me up at night.

96:32And I hope it doesn't happen to him. I think we could have the exact same conversation about Brock Bowers.

96:38Sure. Don't you keep Brock Bowers in a cage?

96:40That's right. Now it matters to me. It wouldn't matter to me as a general NFL fan.

96:45Now it matters much more. Now me and Derek are brothers in arms here.

96:49We're in this together. Brock Bowers is future. Yeah.

96:51I would basically would have done like the exact same spiel that Dave just gave about Jenty about Bowers.

96:57Like, I just think that if Jenty was singular at Boise state and he was what Bowers was at Georgia.

97:02And even in his rookie, he broke records as a rookie tight end on a not very good team.

97:08Like that guy is just incredible. So they have these two beautiful, incredible talents here.

97:12Can we just make the most of them? I think, I think that that is important.

97:16And then honestly, like talking about like the best talents on this team, what's keeping me up at night and really not

97:22a lot of it is related to success with a team like this, but like is Max getting traded again?

97:28It just kind of feels like where the fact that they already did it.

97:32And I just, it kind of feels to me like this is just, they're waiting for whoever the right target is going

97:38to be by the time the deadline comes along.

97:41So if we're talking about like, what is keeping you up at night, especially the early points of the season?

97:46I'm just like, is our only really, really good defensive piece going to be gone by the time we get to Halloween?

97:52That leads me into mine. The quality of this team's fronts on both sides of the ball, I think is what would be keeping me up at night.

98:00We talked about them being able to paper over the offensive line part of this a little bit, which I think is totally fair.

98:07But if you just try to isolate the individual talents, Spencer Burford is probably going to be a starting guard on this team.

98:13He got beat out in San Francisco and before getting back into the mix on a team that wasn't exactly flush with great offensive line talent.

98:21If Caleb Rogers ends up winning that right guard job, he played 285 snaps last year.

98:25DJ Glaze has struggled. And so even if we think it can be a rising tide lifts all boats situation because of

98:31the way they play, I still don't think the talent there is very good.

98:35And if you look at the defensive side of the ball for all the guys they added in the secondary and they

98:41had a key on Crawford as a pass rusher in the third round, the interior defensive line rotation on this team is

98:47the same as it was last year when they had to play a very specific way defensively with Patrick Graham as the defensive coordinator.

98:54This team in Las Vegas last year per next gen play with eight guys in a box on 48% of their runs.

99:00That was 10 percentage points higher than any other team in the NFL.

99:04The gap between them and the Browns at two was bigger than the gap between Cleveland and the team in ninth place

99:10because they had to play that way. It's all the same guys.

99:13They're better at linebacker, right? And Kobe Dean and Quay Walker should help with this.

99:18But I still think that interior defensive line rotation is a little bit scary to me.

99:22And how are they going to be able to hold up?

99:25Especially Rob Leonard, I think is going to want to do a lot of McDonald's Seattle type stuff.

99:30He was on that Raven staff in 2022. Obviously, Clint Kubiak just came from there.

99:34The bones of the defense, I expect to be that.

99:37Can you imagine or picture a more different collection of interior defensive linemen than what the Seahawks have and what the Raiders currently have?

99:44I can't even picture it because again, think of all the teams even in that bucket, like what Fangio's defense is, what

99:50Minter's defense is, the interior defensive line talent on those teams is just, or even what the Ravens were at those eras.

99:56It's just so much different. And one of those just like, kind of like mid-tier NFL players.

100:01I think that he's great and he gives you some explosive plays, but he's a player who tries to win with quickness

100:07and he's 32 years old this year. Like I just, there's a certain point where maybe that falls away.

100:12And like you mentioned all the loaded box stuff, not only were they loading the box last year, the linebackers were like

100:19Jamal Adams and Devin White and guys like that.

100:21And they were just firing them all the time.

100:24Like N'Kobi Dean and Quay Walker can do that, but I think you don't want to have to do that.

100:29It doesn't want to be the only way you want to live.

100:33So I just think unless like a lot of these rookies, and again, they didn't even really add that many young guys,

100:39but unless like Quidipe and Kieron Crawford are just nails out of the gate to somewhat make up for your interior issues.

100:45I mean, this could be one of the worst fronts in the NFL.

100:49They just said, Quay, N'Kobi, you want to make 200 tackles each?

100:52Does that sound fun? And 15 or $12 million a year, whatever they paid them.

100:56I think it's just a reminder that as there are exciting elements to this team, there are things worth being optimistic about

101:02new era, really fun skill position players, number one overall pick quarterback.

101:06This is still a team that's paying for the sins of its inability to find talent at a lot of position groups over the last few years.

101:13It is a thin, fragile football team in a lot of important areas.

101:17And I think ultimately that will hold them back, even if there's stuff we can get excited about.

101:22What does a successful season look like, Dave, for the 2026 Las Vegas Raiders?

101:26I don't see how this can be a successful season if you don't have a really clear picture of what Fernando Mendoza is by the time it's over.

101:34And I think like, really? Yes. You need, you think you need a really clear picture of what a rookie quarterback is?

101:40I sure do. I think if he's just pretty exciting, that's probably enough for me.

101:44Okay. Do we think, do we feel like he's the right guy?

101:47This is Clinton and him are the right guys, but it's worth bringing up.

101:51And I get your point that it's going to take care of itself.

101:55But remember, we started training camp with the whole bit about the Raiders had been making noise that Kirk might play the whole season.

102:02And I don't genuinely believe that. And I never did, but I don't want the weather to be cold here in Chicago before I'm seeing Fernando Mendoza.

102:09I got this. And it's not just because I think he's exciting and I think he's better than he gets credit for.

102:15This guy's got to play. Rookie quarterbacks have to play.

102:18And Tom Brady's there. And that's where that whole Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes.

102:22Okay. I was just saying, I actually, no, I don't think they have to play.

102:26No, I disagree. The difference is to Dave's point.

102:28First overall picks do play. Yeah. Like they do play because the team feels compelled to play them because your team is bad.

102:35You need to win games or pressure from the outside.

102:38Do they need to play? I think is a different conversation.

102:41What we don't have to have now a hundred minutes into this podcast, Jordan Love joined a team that had a hall of famer.

102:47And I know Rogers wasn't playing like an MVP at the point, but Jordan Love was brought there to succeed a successful quarterback on his way out.

102:55The Kansas city chiefs nowhere near as successful as they became, but they were a successful franchise with a quality quarterback.

103:01When they drafted Patrick Mahomes, Alex Smith was five years younger than Kirk cousins is now.

103:05If like what happens if Kirk cousins plays most of this season and the Raiders are even like entertainingly decent, like who cares?

103:12So what that is not informative enough for me.

103:14I think we don't. And where, how, where causation comes into this is difficult to pin down.

103:19But I also think the chiefs and the Packers were able to operate in ideal circumstances because they weren't pushed off a timeline.

103:25I think you can make an argument. Teams should operate that way.

103:29If you're, if you're trying to do it in an ideal way, but, but teams that are bad and draft the quarterback

103:35first overall, don't approach it that way because they don't feel like they can.

103:39If you want to get, and I know we don't have time because we're, yeah, we're 90 minutes into this thing.

103:45It worked out. Obviously it worked out. Jordan Love, whatever you think of him is a good quarterback.

103:50And, and it all worked out for green Bay, but like, it was objectively unideal the way that all that worked and

103:56they had to arrange a special, special contract with Jordan Love because three years for Fernando.

104:00We'll see him next year. No, we need, I want to see Fernando now.

104:04I think we're going to, by the way, I know I agreed anyway.

104:08I think we're going to see him like six weeks into the season.

104:12You have three years with which to decide on a quarterback before you have to start thinking obviously about the option.

104:17And then also earmarking money for a potential extension.

104:20And considering that the alternative is Kirk cousins, where he is in his career, both age and ability wise.

104:25I just, I don't see the upside to be honest with you, especially for a guy that was drafted number one overall.

104:31I think it's about the downside. I think you're trying to mitigate downside, which is probably, we're probably overstating that we said

104:38the same thing about Drake may, and I was probably the same thing about Drake may even his rookie year wasn't even good, but Caleb Williams seems fine.

104:45Now we're not worried about Caleb Williams. I was Joe Burrow or his knee up because the Bengals infrastructure was so bad his rookie year.

104:52And he's fine too. Like they're not, they're, they're, they're, they're big professional athletes.

104:56They can get out there and take some licks.

104:59He's huge. That's people don't talk about Fernando. Like he's six, five to 30 because he comes across like a choir boy on the microphone.

105:06He's a big physical quarterback. He should play football.

105:08And I think he's good enough to weather. Whatever's coming his way.

105:12So I, I, I'm on a soapbox, but I think if the Raiders are going to have a successful season, we need

105:18to get to the end of it and be like, Fernando's exciting and we can add some stuff to make him look better.

105:24That's part of it. I think, I think we get to the end of the year.

105:29Bowers looks like a monster. Gentty looks like the guy they drafted Fernando and Kirk or Fernando and Clint are both the

105:35right choices in franchise altering choices, hiring a new head coach and drafting guy first overall.

105:39Those feel like the right guys. And we get some flashes from this rookie class.

105:44That's enough. I think, yes. I think if next year we are going into the March free agency period or the draft

105:50period or whatever, and being like, man, if they get one more offensive lineman and one more pass catcher, like that's the

105:56team I want to bet on defensive tackle. But yes, well, well, the offense, like I'm saying like, if this is the

106:02offense that I think it's like they could, you know, Fernando looks good and the offensive line is better than it should

106:08be because of, you know, Kubiak raising it and Bowers is healthy and Gentty looks good.

106:13It's like, okay, that becomes an offense that I want to bet on to be the one that takes that superstar jump.

106:19And so to Dave's point, like some of that is probably a little bit dependent on seeing whether or not Mendoza can

106:25play and me wanting to feel that way. Cause if he doesn't play at all, I think I would have like slightly

106:31tougher time making that bet if we hadn't seen him at all.

106:34But if he plays half the season and he looks about as good as we think he's going to be, and he looks pretty good.

106:41And again, to you guys' point, like Fernando Mendoza is built, like he's closer to like Justin Herbert talent wise than I think he probably gets credit for.

106:49And so I think if he looks good, he plays good and the offensive line looks better and they are one or

106:55two pieces away from being like, I want to bet on that in the off season.

107:00That to me is success. I don't really care about the defense yet.

107:04That to me is like 2027 consideration. Yeah. Like when, when did, when did Tyler struck take over last year?

107:09It was week eight. It was the Rams game.

107:12Yeah. Spencer Rattler like exploded versus the bears and then they put him in.

107:16It's fine. Half the season will be fine, but I think it should be more.

107:20That's fair. Give me a larger sample size. I think, I think if he plays eight games and those games look okay, you're going to feel all right.

107:28I think it should, I think it should be 12.

107:30And fortunately the Raiders schedule is going to keep me from stressing out about this because they open with the dolphins and

107:37then it's just murderers row for like two months after that.

107:40Like I said, it's going to figure itself out.

107:42Sorry. I think we're going to be okay. I feel passionately about my guy.

107:46I love the fact that we have three playoff teams with Superbowl aspirations and we spent the most time on the goddamn Las Vegas Raiders.

107:53This is going to be a fun couple of weeks for Katie.

107:56That is all we've got for the AFC West preview.

107:59We got seven more of these coming. It is one of my favorite stretches of the year.

108:04Really looking forward to it. Appreciate all of you guys listening.

108:07That's all we got for today. We will be back tomorrow with the AFC North.

108:11Talk to you guys soon. Thanks for tuning in.

108:14Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button.

108:16So you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like comment and leave a rating.

108:22We'll see you next time.

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