What analytical trends and rule changes tell us about the 2026 season
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 11 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 24, 2026
Published
Mon, August 24, 2026
11
Player insights
11
Players mentioned
Topics
Aidan O'ConnellBen JohnsonCaleb WilliamsJ.J. McCarthyJalen HurtsJosh AllenKyler MurrayMark AndrewsPatrick MahomesTom BradyTy Johnson
Player analysis
Player insights
Aidan O'Connell
NegativeUsage14:00
Ryan Paganetti notes that in a recent preseason game, the Raiders utilized Aiden O'Connell on a quarterback sneak in a high-leverage situation with no timeouts and limited time, highlighting the continued reliance on the play despite the inherent risks of a rushed operation.
Insight pageBen Johnson
NegativeRole52:52
Ben Johnson is noted for his 'mad scientist' approach to play-calling, specifically his commitment to a 50-50 run-pass split across various down-and-distance scenarios to keep defenses off-balance and prevent them from effectively game-planning against his tendencies.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
NegativeProjection69:26
The discussion notes the hope that Caleb Williams can avoid the 'man curse' while acknowledging the high level of play-calling and scheme innovation surrounding him.
Insight pageJ.J. McCarthy
NegativeRole13:40
Ryan Paganetti suggests that teams without a preferred starter for quarterback sneaks, such as the Cardinals with Kyler Murray, might look to other players like JJ McCarthy or tight ends to fill that specific short-yardage role.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveUsage16:51
Ryan Paganetti notes that Jalen Hurts is often cited as the primary reason for the success of the 'Tush Push' due to his physical strength, though he argues that quarterback sneaks were highly effective even before the specific technique became popularized.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeUsage20:25
Josh Allen was responsible for checking plays at the line of scrimmage based on defensive reactions to the burst-out motions performed by running backs like Ty Johnson.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeUsage13:33
Ryan Paganetti mentions that Kyler Murray reportedly does not like running quarterback sneaks and lacks experience with the play, making him an unlikely candidate for that role in Arizona.
Insight pageMark Andrews
NegativeUsage67:00
Mark Andrews is cited as an example of a player involved in a big play on a short-yardage situation, illustrating how teams sometimes deviate from standard QB sneaks in high-leverage moments.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
NegativeInjury16:17
Ryan Paganetti notes that Patrick Mahomes suffered a minor injury on a quarterback sneak in the past, which led the Chiefs to largely abandon the play, negatively impacting their short-yardage efficiency prior to last season.
Insight pageTom Brady
PositiveUsage16:43
Ryan Paganetti highlights that Tom Brady was exceptionally effective at quarterback sneaks, noting that 82% of his career sneaks when not on the one-yard line gained at least two yards, debunking the myth that the play is only useful for one-yard gains.
Insight pageTy Johnson
NegativeUsage20:17
Buffalo utilized Ty Johnson on third downs in recent seasons specifically to execute burst-out motions, which served as a mechanism for the offense to gather protection tells from the defense.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays.
0:03Really enjoyed today's show and excited for you guys to hear it.
0:06We're on the eve of the season now and I really wanted to do something about some of the analytical things to keep in mind.
0:13The situational decision making things that have really crept into how the league is going to feel this year.
0:18And the person I wanted to have that conversation with has done some fantastic work in this space since he became a
0:24member of the media essentially over the last couple months.
0:27That's Ryan Paganetti who was with the Raiders last year.
0:30And coach analyst role have been with the Jaguars and the Eagles before that somebody who has spent a ton of time
0:36thinking about all this situational stuff and what the right decisions are as you're weighing all the different variables.
0:41And so we dug into a lot of stuff today how teams are using motion how teams should be thinking about four
0:47downs, how often you should be hunting explosive plays versus making sure that you're gaining the yard you need on third and
0:53one lot of fun stuff on this show enjoyed digging into all of it.
0:57Let's get to that conversation right now. For our last show before we start really digging into division previews and looking at
1:04specific teams heading into the season, I wanted to have one more big picture conversation and I wanted to have it with
1:10somebody that I think has been doing some really interesting work over the last month or so since he was gonna say
1:16dipped his toe jumped headfirst into the new media world that he is a part of Ryan Paganetti.
1:21I want you to explain to the people first before we get into this conversation who you are and what you have
1:27done over the last few years just to give them a little bit of context about your background.
1:32Yeah, so I entered the league in 2015 with the Eagles and then you know, I was there for Chip Kelly's last
1:38year and then for Doug Peterson's five years I was sort of in this coaching analytics hybrid role where I was doing the game management.
1:45So I was on the headset communicating kind of like when to go for fourth downs and two point conversions and timeouts
1:51and challenges and whatnot and like and then I also I was actually part of the defensive staff with Jim Schwartz for that time frame.
1:58And so I got a little bit of attention because you know, we went for a lot of four downs with coach
2:04Peterson and we went for a lot of controversial two point plays like we had though, you know, the Philly special and
2:10all these moments kind of in the Super Bowl.
2:13And then I was I was in Jacksonville for a few years.
2:16I kind of was inspired to it was really cool to be a part of the first Super Bowl with the Eagles
2:22and I kind of wanted to try to repeat that with a new team and you know, I was there, you know,
2:28and really on the little bit more on the front office side there.
2:32And then this last year I was with the Eagles or sorry, I was with the Raiders and you know, as part
2:38of the coaching staff as with the made up title that Pete made up called head coach research specialist.
2:44And I really, I really had an amazing time there, you know, like Vegas is awesome.
2:48Like I feel for that organization because it's been like 23 years or something since they've won a playoff game and only
2:54a couple appearances, but they're heading in the right direction.
2:57And, you know, they had a nice comeback win last night.
3:00That was pretty cool to watch just kind of how things played out there.
3:04And I'd love to see them, you know, kind of get on track.
3:07And I feel it's tough to tough to win in that division.
3:11There's no doubt with the, you know, you could Clint could do an amazing job.
3:15And unfortunately, like you're going up against some Hall of Fame coaches, Hall of Fame talents.
3:19And it's a it's a big challenge. But, you know, I think, you know, the Mendoza era is going to be is going to be exciting.
3:27And I think there, you know, for the first time in a long time, like the era was like really pointing up for that organization.
3:34I'm excited to see what they do this year.
3:36I mean, I think and even looking at that preseason game last night, we're recording this on Friday afternoon.
3:41The second wave of players, you can just sense like the lack of draft success they've had over the last like three or four years.
3:48Like it just even if the young guys in the last two drafts start to pop their heads out a little bit,
3:55it's just not a very deep team. It's still not a very talented team.
3:58And that's OK. Right. I mean, it's we're truly at stage one again with them figuring out who they are and where they want to go.
4:06And so that's your background before this offseason. What are you up to now just so people can be on the lookout for the work that you're doing?
4:14So, you know, like I live the life of, you know, wake up at five thirty in the morning and go into work.
4:20And then like, you know, I leave at nine thirty on a Monday and like coaches are like literally making fun of me for leaving early.
4:27And like then repeat that Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, like zero days off, like have a life, like, you know, be with your,
4:33you know, family, be with your partner, like all those different things.
4:37I'm like, what am I doing at some point?
4:39And like it I was a little bit more motivated to kind of go this route in part just because I've been
4:45a part of some recent kind of lack of success, I guess you could say.
4:49And like it's that that whole like time commitment is more, I guess, reasonable when your team is succeeding.
4:55And so anyway, like people thought like my story was a little bit unique and cool and my here, you know, from
5:01either former players or just like people that have, say, been a scout and gone into the media world and whatnot.
5:07Like and I'm like, I would love to try to take a stab at this in the from like the sort of football analytics and research type world.
5:15So really, like right at the end of June, I kind of announced I'm going this route.
5:19And I just sort of been posting a lot of research that I've sort of had have had bottled up on the team side for a long time.
5:27And a lot of it's kind of gotten some attention.
5:30And, you know, I'm getting like random follows from head coaches and Hall of Famers.
5:34And I actually I think this year I'm going to have a bunch of different sort of consulting relationships.
5:39And even some of these broadcasters are asking me to sort of help them get ready for their games, which I think has been like a really cool.
5:47It's a really cool process for me to sort of still be involved in the week to week, but also just like
5:53actually have a life and and not feel overwhelmed in your teams like two and 14 and this December and all that.
5:59So I'm excited for this. And like, you know, I'm on I'm on Twitter and it's good.
6:04That's kind of gotten a lot of attention. I kind of just started the YouTube world as well.
6:09And I there's all these different topics I'd like to kind of hit on that.
6:13I never really got to talk to talk about when you because you're basically shut out when you're when you're a team employee.
6:20And like you can't say anything. So I'm enjoying it.
6:22You know, like the opportunity to kind of interact with different people like yourself and others in the media space.
6:28It's been great. You threw out some really interesting stuff, just little nuggets and subject areas on Twitter that I found interesting.
6:34I mean, the the idea of making sure we have 50 50 propositions when it comes to play calling run pass situationally
6:40and some of the stuff Ben Johnson's doing the work that you did about the Patriots end of game end of half
6:46work and like how they would bleed out the clock and the run rates with a certain amount of time left just
6:53to make sure they were getting the last possession.
6:55And it's actually funny. I was talking to a coach on my training camp tour, and he was discussing that he had once done a project about that.
7:03And I was like, oh, yeah, this guy was just literally talking about this on social media yesterday.
7:08And he was kind of like, oh, man, really?
7:10I thought that's something I was I had thought about that maybe other people weren't.
7:15And so you struck a nerve with some with some of the things that you've thrown out there.
7:20And I wanted to spend some time today just giving you an opportunity to fill up a couple of those buckets because
7:26we sit here on the on the eve of the season.
7:29What are a couple areas of interest, curiosity of yours that you feel like are going to be particularly notable as we
7:35watch analytical and situational decision making unfold for this NFL season?
7:38I had a couple little like pet cat subjects that I wanted to talk to you about.
7:43But for the most part on this show, I kind of wanted to give you the floor to explore some of the
7:49things that you find most interesting as we sit about two weeks from the season here.
7:53So where do you want to start this conversation?
7:56Yeah, I'd say one area that I think is.
7:58The public space talks about motion usage, for example, and like you see like a positive effect in many, you know, regards there.
8:05But there's there's a little bit more nuance there.
8:07And there's just from like having some data on the team side and being able to classify different things.
8:13There is a world where, like, say, like multiple motion events or like a shift than a motion or what people like
8:19Liam Coen are doing are they're, you know, initiating motions or shifts to to really gather information on what you're doing.
8:25And then he has this like the whole drama that he had with Robert Sala was like it really was based on.
8:31That he's he's doing something to quickly gather information and then kill the play and different teams would do that just like
8:37formationally and maybe a little bit with motions. But he's really, really leaning into that.
8:41And like, say, a player initiates a jet motion and then stops after a few steps.
8:45And then they and then they're going to assess like, OK, how did you react?
8:50Did like you boss the linebackers over? Did you rotate the safeties?
8:53Did somebody run? And then they're going to audible, you know, and I think that's a whole world where more specific nuance
8:59of like the motions, I think, could be like discussed in the public sphere a little bit more.
9:04Like, is it receivers moving? Is it tight ends?
9:07Like, is it Ben Johnson was the king of tight end shifts?
9:10So like to give you a perspective, like he had so many snaps with a guy lined up outside or changing strength and whatnot.
9:17He still is like in there. These guys are gathering information on you.
9:20And if you're defensively not doing a good job disguising, which that's a whole nother narrative we could talk about, like you
9:26really the disguise rates are really skyrocketed. And then the teams that are succeeding, they're sort of sitting there in these two
9:32high shells and not giving you good information. But it's sort of as things have evolved this sort of time period before the snap.
9:39It's like you can really mine for all this different information.
9:42Like, OK, we split out a guy out wide.
9:45Like did a tight end, did a safety go with him with a linebacker?
9:49Did they stay too high? Did they get out of a blitz?
9:52Did they change passing strength? Like there's so many different areas there.
9:55And I tried to spend a lot of time on that.
9:58And, you know, on the team side in the last couple of years, because I sort of felt like it was like
10:05a code breaker and like World War II, like you could just that would be the area like rather than fourth downs
10:11or QB sneaks or two point conversions where some of these things like are already really being pushed.
10:16Like, you know, I used to bug everybody about quarterback sneaks way back when I was with the Eagles.
10:21And I think we ultimately led the league in sneaks, I think from 17 to 20.
10:25But and then that's just taken like I don't even call the Tush Push's sneaks because I think it's like it's actually
10:32screwing up all the conversion rates of sneaks because it's actually bringing down the absolute conversion rate.
10:36Because you're declaring to like everybody in the building, everybody who's watching at a bar like this is what play we're running.
10:42Yeah. And so like and like the defenses are making up these crazy things like floors is good guy laying on the ground.
10:49There's like people lined up sideways. You know, a couple of different people have suggested that the Lions and a couple other
10:55teams down the stretch had these interesting nuances of like how they were attacking the shoulders of different linemen.
11:00And like second level defenders sort of like down the stretch last year, there was a decrease in the in the Tosh Posh effectiveness.
11:07But I also I watch a lot of college football and I've seen so many different teams try to copy that.
11:13And it's it. They don't have the Eagles line.
11:15They didn't have Jeff Stoutland teaching the technique. And like they maybe just got a one rep of it and walk through
11:21on a Thursday and then they get out there on a Saturday or Sunday.
11:25It's like it doesn't look good. Like and when that play looks bad, it looks like really bad.
11:30And so I also find it amusing. Like, you know, we had Jason.
11:34So Jason Kelsey's doing the broadcast or, you know, he's involved with the ESPN process.
11:38And we the Raiders played the Cowboys in the middle of the year last year.
11:42And I was just like talking to him before the game.
11:45And he's like, yeah, this play is getting banned.
11:48And it was like because at the time there was so much negativity on the Tosh Posh just because.
11:53There was like the Chiefs game that like guys were jumping early.
11:57And then there was like that. I think the Giants had a game where it was.
12:01They ripped the ball out, but the play was blown dead.
12:04And they're like, we can't officiate this anymore. It's just stupid.
12:07But then the Eagles like didn't have success down the stretch.
12:10So everyone just stopped talking about it. It wasn't brought up again.
12:13I think that's so amusing how the NFL works like that, because if you if you pulled the people in the league,
12:20you pulled the media like week seven of last year.
12:22It probably would have said like 88 percent of people would say this thing is getting banned and I want it banned.
12:29And because the Eagles weren't doing it to like win a Super Bowl or have success down the stretch.
12:34Everyone's like, all right, we're just going to not talk about that anymore.
12:37Yeah, I because even the Seahawks won the Super Bowl.
12:40It didn't come up in the Super Bowl, but they were doing it with a tight end.
12:45I thought that was kind of a cool and nuance.
12:48And then even that sort of world where there I believe there was something like 46 non quarterback sneaks last year, which
12:54was like the highest in recent years. I used to be anti having a non quarterback sneak it because I'm like the operations messed up.
13:01The fumble rates are a little bit higher. I'm sure you've probably seen that for a number of years.
13:06Most of the non quarterback sneaks were like last second.
13:09A tight end would just like motion over and like get under.
13:12And it was kind of even worse because you're hurrying the process.
13:16And it's even more likely that you're going to have like a devastating mistake in that moment.
13:20Yeah. And so that population of the rushed ones was terrible.
13:23So I used to be like, I'm against this, whatever.
13:26But then I sort of nuanced, like moved off of that.
13:29I'm like, well, if you're adamant, you're not going to do it with your starter.
13:33I was talking to somebody about this today. It's like, well, Kyler Murray doesn't apparently like running sneaks or have much experience doing it.
13:40Does JJ McCarthy have a role? Does some tight end have a role?
13:44You know, like there's going to be different teams where it's a discussion.
13:47But even the game last night, like there was a highly pivotal sneak that I actually thought was kind of crazy.
13:53Because if you, you know, for people that didn't watch the game, the clock was running with about 17, 18 seconds on first and goal at the one.
14:01The Raiders had no timeouts and they went with a sneak with a no Connell.
14:05The play was initially stopped. And then a tight end who was like off the ball kind of like ran behind Aiden and started to push him.
14:13But it was total chaos. You couldn't see if he got in.
14:16He ended up getting in. But like the game was going to end if he was short because there was not enough time.
14:22And there was like players at the bottom of the pile with their helmets off.
14:27And I think this last year there was something like 342 sneaks.
14:30And back in say 2016, there were 70 in the league.
14:33So like that's going to remain a huge topic.
14:36It drives me so crazy. It drives me so crazy.
14:38And I love the fact that you were so vocal and adamant about this because this has been one of my pedestals for so long.
14:45When you were talking, I was looking, I wanted to figure out my history when it comes to like the QB sneak
14:51and how vocal I've been about this. In 2020, just a random tweet.
14:55I was like, we as a society have to embrace the quarterback sneak.
14:59Like I have always been one of these people where it reminds me a lot of the meme with the bell curve
15:05meme where you have like the Cro-Magnon person on one side.
15:08And then you have the guy that's like losing his mind in the middle and then the enlightened person on the end.
15:14You need a yard. Just sneak it is what's on both sides.
15:17And you represent the man who has thought about this more than anyone.
15:21And you still at the end of the day, like just sneak the ball.
15:25And so I'm so glad that as a analytical and like process-based society, we are getting to a place where we understand
15:31the most efficient way to get one yard is to put a man underneath the center and have him sneak the ball forward for one yard.
15:38Because to me, it was the most obvious and apparent thing about professional football for like a decade.
15:43Once you see all, like I basically, you know, whatever.
15:46We went for the most fourth downs at two boy conversions.
15:49I made this like my life obsession back in say 2015, 16.
15:52I was like, I needed to find out exactly what the bottlenecks are, why teams are not doing this.
15:58And it was the initial pushback was quarterback injuries.
16:00It was like one of every four. Like that was what was told to me on the team side.
16:06It was actually one of every 491 sneaks resulted in an injury, which is less than.
16:10Once every five years. Yeah. And there was a stretch of seven years without one.
16:14And now there have been some high profile ones.
16:17Like Mahomes got a little injury, say, in some time before and they don't do them anymore.
16:21That's actually been an issue for them. At least prior to this last year, they were, they were kind of struggling in short yardage.
16:28But the other one was like, you can only do it when it's under a yard.
16:33That's actually like, it was like a myth busters project.
16:35It was like, that's a hoax. Like most of them actually gained more.
16:39Tom Brady actually had, this is a crazy stat, something like 82% of his career sneaks when it was not on the
16:45one yard line gained at least two yards. And he, and like, everyone's like, you, you can only do it when you
16:51have Jalen Hurts who can squat 600. Like, I don't, no offense to Tom.
16:55He can't squat 600. I promise you. Like, I don't know.
16:58That was my other thing is I said something like, I think last year I was like, you may not believe this,
17:04but quarterback sneaks were an incredibly effective play before the tush push exists.
17:08They were an incredibly effective play. So I'm glad that we both believe in this.
17:12I want to go back to the motion thing really quickly, because I'm very curious about this.
17:17I think that there are two different buckets I want to take here.
17:20The first is I was talking about this with an offensive coach two days ago or three days ago on this trip.
17:27We were just discussing how the motion environment around the NFL in let's say 2017 compared to what it is right now.
17:33Because when you, when all this stuff started getting introduced and we started living in a more motion heavy world, it was
17:39a lot of the McVay under center jet stuff.
17:41When we, you pair it with like an outside zone running game.
17:45And if you go back and you watch the examples back then, any jet motion, two or three defensive players are moving when that jet motion is happening.
17:53And it was just a way to get defenses completely out of sorts.
17:56I mean, you're just getting them out of string before the plays even snapped.
18:00And then over time, defenses stopped moving, right? They stopped reaction to those motions in the same play because in the same
18:06way, because they understood what sort of advantage it was giving the offense by just displacing people before the snap.
18:12And so I think defenses have started moving less and it's made those motions less important.
18:16The information gathering motions, defenses have started to play with those expectations as well.
18:20Like you just said, all right, if we're going to line up a tight end or a running back at number one
18:26on third down and they would walk a linebacker out there, it's man, right?
18:30Well, now defenses who understand that expectation have started toying with that and they'll play zone coverage while they do things like that.
18:37And so I think the displacement motions and the information gathering motions and the way that we used to understand them aren't
18:43quite as effective based on how defenses have started to respond to that.
18:46So I'm curious what you think, taking all that into account, are the most effective information gathering types of motion that you
18:52have seen teams consistently use well over the last couple of years?
18:56Yeah. So that's a great point with the running back one has been like, it was like a, it was like when
19:02people play like call duty or something and this gun's too good and they have to like push an update to like normalize it.
19:09Like the, the running back one lining them up a wide has been like patched because it's like easy to kind of
19:15just fake that or like bring, send a linebacker out or somebody or safety and then bring it back in and actually
19:21do something different or just play zone. When he's out there, the tight end nuances are more complicated, especially when you're in
19:27like 12 personnel and it's like, okay, well we can disguise one of these potentially.
19:31But if you start moving multiple tight ends around, it's hard to like basically disguise multiple things, which I think is why
19:37you end up seeing more and more teams are just like, whatever, we're going to be a too high defense that plays cover four, like, or cover six.
19:45Like, cause it's like a universal solution to some of that stuff.
19:48And like nuances, like, you know, over the years say you put a, a tight end, like say you have a three
19:55by one and the tight end is at two instead of, instead of one in terms of the most outside guy.
20:00Like, well then you have to put in certain rules there.
20:03And it's like, if you have say a slot, a receiver lined up as the number three player and then a tight
20:10end as the number two, and then a receiver is the number one.
20:13Like there's, there's always something that you can mess around with it a little bit.
20:17You saw like in recent years, Buffalo was like spamming these running back kind of burst out motions where like the back would just sprint out.
20:25He'd begin to sprint out and then Josh would check it based off of the reactions.
20:29But they were doing that on third down with Ty Johnson all the time in order to get protection tells.
20:35That was like a huge part of what they were doing a couple of years ago.
20:39Yeah. And so, so the demeanor of the player actually going fast makes it harder to disguise.
20:44If that makes sense. Like, yeah. Because like you, you really like you, like, you can't just like, Oh, wally gag around
20:50and be like, Oh, we'll send a linebacker out.
20:52It's like, no, like they actually, he might just go.
20:55And so I think you see more of that.
20:58And also even in the core of the formation, like things like it's like an off ball tight end and he begins
21:04to jet across and then resets or, you know, things of that nature where it's like, Oh, here comes change of strength motion.
21:10Just kidding. No, it's not like there things that if it's changing the runner path strength and quickly, like, especially when these
21:16teams have like, Oh, we have a run blitz to, you know, and this is how we set the front.
21:22And like all shine, you can't necessarily do that.
21:25And that obviously has created more of these defenses that are trying to do like what you said, that they're moving less and less.
21:31But then I think there's like a counter punch where it's like, okay, well, if they're not going to move.
21:37Then that it's like, we start to, we start three by one, bring a guy across, they didn't move.
21:42Okay, well, let's bring another guy across. Cause like, you could just say that's a shift and then bring another one.
21:48And all of a sudden they're not moving and you have a numbers advantage.
21:52And you're seeing these things like swing screens and stuff like that.
21:55Sometimes when people just have like a numbers thing, but there's, there's so many variables taking place before the snap.
22:01And even in this like player tracking era, there's different people trying to like use the player tracking data to try to classify.
22:07Whatever information like beyond, is it manner zone? Like, is this, are they, did they just give away that they're blitzing because the nickel didn't travel?
22:14Or like, did they do this because the nickels lined up into the boundary or there's so many different variables that you can sort of mine there.
22:22And even the best coaches there, there's oftentimes something that it just kind of like breaks their defense.
22:27If you just like try it. And like, so it's part of the job of these offensive coaches to sort of figure what, figure out what that is.
22:35Um, and I think that's like a super cool area where like, you can really lean into data and trying to study, you know, a million different things.
22:43And, um, I think as particularly with, you know, the Rams having so much success offensively, I still stand by, I thought
22:49the Rams were the best team last year. Obviously it didn't play out with them winning the Superbowl, but.
22:54Man, don't say that in public. That day will come for you.
22:57They, uh, yeah, like they, they won the fake Superbowl of my advanced stats, but like, they obviously have a good C, you know, good team this year.
23:05And I really wonder, I don't think I taught, I was talking to Jim Schwartz about this.
23:10I don't think people give enough attention. It's all these fantasy football people are always asking me like, who should I take?
23:16Who should I take? Whatever people don't give enough credit to like when the defense is really good.
23:21For that team. It, it increases the offensive production because they get so many more drives.
23:25So like the, the, the stat that was kind of crazy is like over the last number of years, the, the Browns
23:32defense was so good that the Browns offense had like 50 more drives than any other team.
23:36And they were still really bad, but it's like, and then, cause that's why I like Schwartz is now all in on expected points.
23:43Cause he was kind of getting screwed. Cause he was facing more drives than anybody.
23:47Cause you had to incept him into believing in advanced stats because the normal ones weren't working for him anymore because it was too good.
23:54I absolutely love that. Like, well, but there was like a force.
23:57He's like, I'm sick and tired of these like forced fumbles interceptions.
24:01And like the other team starting at the, at the plus 18, he's like, I could do a great job here.
24:07Like hold it both field goal, but it's like, that's an expected point win, but it's like, I give up three points.
24:13So like, I think that's an interesting world where you're getting more coaching receptiveness to some of these advanced stats because they
24:19have like certain pet peeves that are like sort of actually, those stats actually account for better.
24:24The motion stuff is, I love what you said.
24:26Cause that's, I've really been interested in that. And again, cause I love that the idea of like kind of playing with
24:32the trope of more motion equals good. And it's like, well, it depends what you're using it for because the environment that
24:38you're using it in has changed so much. And that point about, well, if they're not going to move, you can use
24:45that to your advantage because then if you are, you can move.
24:48And so if you're moving enough and you're moving in the right ways, you can start to build in advantages for yourself.
24:54And so I think change of strength, my running plays specifically is one that really sticks out.
24:59Like the Niners are a team that you think about, like think about all of those kinds of slam motions that they use with the fullback.
25:06I think we'll see a lot of teams start leaning into that stuff a little bit more for exactly the reasons that you're saying.
25:13And the formation stuff, that's another one that really jumps out because I think it's a few different areas.
25:18If you can change the formation really quickly before the play, you're changing the picture for the defense very fast.
25:24But I think some of the best defenses in the league right now, there's so many formation checks and adjustments that are being built into these defensive systems.
25:31That if you're changing the formation immediately before the play to create something else, you're playing with the check system that some of these defenses have.
25:39And so that to me is really where it is.
25:41Like, can we very quickly change the strength right before the play happens for exactly the reasons that you said?
25:47If we're setting the front a certain way for a run blitz, all the mechanics to defend the rung out of these light boxes.
25:54If we can try to play with some of that stuff very quickly and then change formationally what we're doing.
25:59If we're living in a world where there are more formation checks and adjustments than there have ever been defensively.
26:05That's one of the ways that offenses can kind of start to steal back the advantage that they have lost over the last couple years.
26:12Yeah, like I've been like a defensive coach, but I've always had a little bit more enjoyment sitting in on some different
26:18offensive meetings or coming with offense ideas. Because you kind of can be creative and have the first mover advantage versus defensively,
26:24you're just crafting the best response to whatever they do.
26:27And it's like you're writing code almost like if this, then this, if this, then this.
26:31And in some cases, your statement becomes too long.
26:34And like what you said, like, so I've been a part of defenses where we set rules where it's like, we'll change.
26:40We'll change. We'll reset the front one time, but we're not going to reset the front multiple times because it's just like
26:46a fire drill because we just have seven guys moving.
26:49It's like, here's our strong side linebacker and our weak side and our three tech and our what, you know.
26:54And so like there you can, but, but once you figure that out about a defense, you can fit, you can exploit that.
27:01But like, okay, if we move the bat, say we're in gun and it's offset and we move the back and he floats people.
27:07Some people call it foot. Like he float, he comes across and he's now he's on the other side.
27:13Well, a lot of these teams in gun are setting the three technique away from the back because it like helps slow down the run game.
27:20Now, not everybody, but like, so say if the rules of your defense is we're going to set the four down front three technique away from the back.
27:28And he moves across. Okay. We reset. Okay. Well, why can't the offense just, it's a quick move.
27:33Why can't he just go back? Are they going to, if, do they reset again?
27:37If they didn't reset, then you, now you have more favorable running lanes.
27:41If like you're, you know, trying to run against an under front or whatever.
27:45And if they do move to you, you can just do it again.
27:48Like there's like a whole world where you could like lean into a lot of these things.
27:53And then, but I think, like you said, there, there is, there's a little bit of a population, particularly offensive line guys
27:59that don't like all the motion stuff because it's too many moving parts.
28:03And they're like, don't just motion because there's some random table or graph on, on Twitter that says to motion.
28:08Because like, if you move all these pieces at the snap and we're trying to worry about our angles or how we're
28:14making our B block or we're getting up to the second level.
28:18And we don't even know where these guys are because they're moving.
28:21It actually makes the job of the lineman harder.
28:24So that's an interesting kind of world. I've seen people sort of criticize, at least in the offensive line space, you know,
28:30because also they're dealing with enough with these defenses.
28:32There's like more movement than ever before with like stunts and whatnot.
28:35And they're just even trying to make rules for that.
28:38And they're like, well, we got to deal with the stunts and we got to deal with the second level moving.
28:44And like, there's too much, there's too many moving parts on some of this stuff.
28:48Well, what I think is interesting about that. And I don't know if this is a cause of the movement that we've
28:54seen back to this world, but more and more teams are doing this.
28:58Are we going to see, is that one of the reasons or one of the benefits to all of these teams going
29:04back to a wide zone world that they had drifted away from in the last three or four years?
29:09If there's going to be all of these aiming point questions and everything else, are we going to be in a place
29:16where it's just like, just fire off the ball.
29:18Just fire off the ball and whoever crosses your face instead of having this, like the Eagles are the perfect example of
29:24this, where I had such a good conversation with Jordan Mailata when I was in Philly.
29:29And he was describing to me the way that they used to play when Stalin was there.
29:33And he was saying to me that it was almost like doing algebra before the play, where you're having to change all of these aiming points.
29:41And when you have, there are advantages to playing that way.
29:44Like they reaped those advantages for a very long time.
29:47If you can solve the problem, you can just bulldoze people.
29:50But if that problem becomes harder to solve because you have all of this movement, is it just easier to play in a simpler way?
29:57And I think we've seen, I mean, maybe five, six teams this year, in part because going under center is pushing them this direction.
30:03But I think there's been a lot of talk as I've talked to teams at training camp about tapping back into more of a wide zone world.
30:11And I think some of that movement that you're talking about defensively is one of the potential reasons that it makes sense
30:17to re-embrace that stuff as we've drifted away from it a little bit.
30:21Yeah, there's been a split for a long time where like in the under center world running, a lot of these guys
30:27were like robots and they wanted to run at the lesser technique in the inside.
30:31So they wanted to run to the A-gap defender.
30:33So like if the D-line was in a three technique in like a shade or a two-eye or whatever, they'd be like,
30:39all right, let's just run this play to the two-eye.
30:42And part of it was because the data actually showed like if you were trying to run it like an under center
30:48wide zone to a three technique, the penetration that it created, there's usually a nine technique, a lot of cases like that caused problems.
30:55And one thing that I think has changed a little bit and you see Ben Johnson doing this and McVay's doing this
31:01a little bit and some of these other teams, they're not afraid of running those wide zones to like the run strength side.
31:08But now it's sort of, there's like more, there's a, there's more of an ability to sort of outflank the defense because
31:14they're lined up with like 12 or 13 and they're just creating like a four or five man surface.
31:19And, and as long as they can basically, it's, it's, you know, the, the, the angle is a little bit wider.
31:25They can get past the three technique that would sometimes reroute the play.
31:28And, but this last year I saw more runs that just completely got the edge.
31:33Like it was almost like high school football, particularly with the Rams.
31:36And they just would run like a wide zone at a five man surface, whether it was 13 personnel or 11, where
31:42they would have like the tight splits and they would just outflank people.
31:46And like, they had an unbelievable run season. And I know Ben has been a, you know, a guy who's not afraid
31:52to do that as well in terms of running at like, like that was always a tendency with different coaches, like Schwartz,
31:58for example, that he was totally on top of.
32:01It's like, well, I kind of, I kind of understand where your wide zones are going because of like, I can sort
32:07of figure out with your, what your rules are.
32:09And so being sort of a hybrid and, and, and like not predictive, just like the run past tendencies, like not being
32:15obvious on like which direction you're going when you're in under center.
32:19Like there's a huge benefit there where like, really the ball can go anywhere there.
32:23And like you said, just like, I could sit here with big numbers person.
32:27I want like my team to be as prepared as possible for everything that could happen.
32:31There's like all sorts of different things that you can do schematically that could just like completely screw up a play with
32:37a puller or a play with two pullers. And there's like, that doesn't necessarily happen as much with like a wide zone
32:43concept where there's like different areas where the play can hit and it's just simple and straightforward.
32:48And then you can build off like the bootlegs and the play actions off of it as well.
32:53So I think that's a super interesting world. And I will say like the, the wide zone world appears to be like,
32:59there's some teams that are really good at it.
33:02And there's some teams that say, Hey, we're going to be a wide zone team this year.
33:07And they're like terrible at it. And that's, so like, just keep an eye on that.
33:11Like even the 13 personnel thing, I think you're going to see some teams run way more 13 personnel this year.
33:17Some of them may have great success. And then some of them, it might be a disaster.
33:22Like I'd actually predict it's probably likely that there's some teams that try a lot of 13 and it's like, wait a minute.
33:28We were told that Sean McVay did this and you just automatically win the game.
33:32So like, it's a little bit more nuanced than that.
33:35And I think that's a trend to kind of keep an eye on is like these, I'd say probably every staff watches
33:41these, whoever was the highest scoring team, whoever won the Super Bowl.
33:44Like you see these trends where people watch those in the off season for ideas.
33:49And of course, McVay and Clint Kubiak and like the Seahawks and Rams, like they were really high under center teams.
33:54And they both kind of leaned into differing versions of big personnel groups.
33:58And so I think those are totally going to be trends, but like sometimes it's like often imitated, never duplicated.
34:04Like it's not, you don't know exactly what the rules are, who has what, like, how are they, what's the technique of all the blocks?
34:11And so sometimes it kind of gets messy when people go in like all in on this, like copycat mentality.
34:16And that's going to be a huge talking point over the first six weeks of the season is who ends up looking
34:22better in that world as they've made that transition and who ends up looking messy in that world.
34:27Let's take our first quick break and then we'll come back and chat about whatever else is on your mind.
34:33What was your next one? If motions was the first bucket, what's the next bucket that you wanted to chat about?
34:39Um, I think, uh, you know, I, I know you, you mentioned, you want to talk about the kicking stuff.
34:44I, yeah, I, my thing is it's a combination of a lot of, a lot of things involved with the kicking stuff,
34:50because I think that to me, it's a combination of where we're starting field position, how good the kickers are and the fourth down appetite.
34:57Just changing the way we think about down and distance considerations.
35:00Right. And so I was looking up some of the numbers before we started.
35:04This number really jumped out to me in 2023.
35:07There were 1,348 offensive drives that started at the minus 35 or closer.
35:11About 1,350. Last year, there were 1,990 of those drives.
35:13So we're talking about 30, a third more, you're starting at the 35 yard line or better as an offense.
35:19It's just a crazy increase compared to what it was even two years ago.
35:23Well, if you're starting at the 35 yard line and we're at a place now where one of the other stats I looked up.
35:29So we had 89 field goals of 55 plus last year with 63% of them being made.
35:34We had 48 of those in 2023 with 58% of them being made.
35:38So we're into a world where we're kicking twice as many 55 yard plus field goals and being better at them while
35:44starting five yard, while starting drives that 35 or better 33% more of the time.
35:48So now let's do the math on that. You need to get to the plus 38 to kick a 55 yard field goal.
35:55So that is what? 27 yards if your starting field position is the minus 35.
35:59So you need to gain 27 yards in the NFL right now if you have a decent kicker to be consistently in scoring range.
36:05That's just not a lot of yards. And so when you combine that with how often teams are going forward on fourth
36:12down, we had a 30% go rate between the plus 45 and the minus 45 last year in the league.
36:17It was 26% in 2023. So all of those things together, it just, to me, leads to a set of considerations for
36:23some of these teams and some of these offenses that still feels new.
36:27Like last year felt like a new world that we had entered when it comes to how you think about those scenarios.
36:33And you know more about those numbers that I presumably do.
36:36I just think that all of these different considerations converging into one thing in that area of the field, it just feels
36:42like we can mine that for a more efficiency and a better thought process and just talk about it more than we even were during last season.
36:50Yeah, I don't want to go too far back in history, but when I first started doing like the fourth down modeling
36:56in the league, the average starting field position was the 21.
36:59And so that's crazy. When you're making a decision, like what the score event results in, like you make an assumption, at
37:05least this is how I used to do it.
37:08You know, there's some debate on how to do it now, but you assume like, okay, say the field goal is made or say you score the touchdown.
37:15The opponent is starting somewhere around first and 10 from the minus 21.
37:19Now that assumption is really the 30 or 31.
37:21And from an expected point standpoint, from a win probability standpoint, that is totally different.
37:26It actually devalues field goals a little bit further, which is I think partly why you're seeing way more fourth and twos
37:32and fourth and threes that teams are going for over hitting the field goal.
37:36Well, because from a relative standpoint, say it used to be like an expected points that a made a scored touchdown would be 6.6 points roughly.
37:43And a made field goal would be worth like 2.6.
37:46And the idea of that meeting was, say you made your field goal, which is worth 3.
37:50And then the other team gets to start at the, you know, first and 10 at the minus 21, which is roughly say 0.4 points.
37:57Well, now that the ratio between 2.6 and 6.6 is different now because it's essentially a touchdown is almost worth 6 points
38:04because of the field position benefit of starting at your 30.
38:07And a field goal is almost worth 2 points.
38:09So it's almost like essentially three times as valuable.
38:12And like, you know, I hope the people at home don't make fun of me for that saying.
38:17Like, actually, it's 7-3, which I understand that. But there's some nuance to that as well.
38:21And then early in the game, like, you can kind of look at it from an expected point standpoint.
38:26But whatever they did with the balls this last year, it was essentially the equivalent of, like, turning them into hot air
38:32balloons when it comes to the field goals. And there's a company named Trackman that they're involved with the golf broadcast.
38:38And they do all the baseball, you know, pitching and everything like that, the spin rates and the speeds and whatnot.
38:44They have about eight or nine teams now. They have Jason Myers as, like, a client.
38:49They have, you know, I've been a part of teams.
38:51We signed up for their product. And this thing is absolutely incredible in terms of what it does is essentially you just
38:58put this device behind your kicker and your punter on, you know, field goals and punts in practice.
39:03And it will tell you exactly how far the field goal would have been good from, like, how much movement it was
39:09left to right, what the launch angle was, you know, anything you could ever imagine.
39:13And they had a study that they basically took, like, 2024 K-balls and took these kickers and had them kick with the 2024 K-ball.
39:20And then the exact same session, they switched to the 2025 K-ball that they got to work on a ton with, like,
39:26you know, the equipment managers and whatnot. And the ball was going four to five yards farther with the exact same kicker on the exact same day.
39:33And so, like that, like you said, 2023 to now is, like, an extreme move.
39:37But, like, even from 2024 to 2025, it was incredible.
39:40And, you know, I was with, you know, Cam Little in practice in 2024.
39:44And, like, part of the reason we drafted him, he was, like, the youngest kicker draft pick ever.
39:49But he just had such a huge leg. And, like, we were sort of banking on the idea that, like, he could
39:55even continue to improve because he was so young.
39:58And it was sort of like these baseball and these basketball picks where they like taking the guys that are 18, 19
40:04years old because there's such a development curve. Well, he was making kicks that on the device was saying good from 68.
40:10And that was before the balls were changed. So this last year, people were saying he was making kicks that the device
40:16was saying would have been good from 72. And so, like, you saw that last preseason, he made one from 70.
40:22And then I was with the Raiders. He literally set the record right in front of us.
40:27So, like, it was right before halftime. And they had, like, barely any time left and they were at their own 31-yard line.
40:33And they completed a ball to exactly the 50.
40:36And, like, I can't believe we gave this up.
40:38We ended up losing the game because of this play.
40:41They complete a ball just to the 50. They sprint up there.
40:44They spike it with, like, one second left. And then he goes and he makes a 68-yarder, which was the official NFL record.
40:51We ended up losing in overtime by one point.
40:53It was like – but it's like – Careful what you wish for over there.
40:57You created a monster. Yeah. I mean, he's probably going to hit me over one from, like – I actually want to
41:03see the Jaguars, like, fail on a third down in preseason this year at, say, like, their own, like, 46-yard line or something.
41:10Because I want to see him try to attempt one from over 70.
41:13Because even the one he made from 70 last preseason, like, it looks like it was, like, pretty comfortably in.
41:19But – and even, like, so when the Bills played the Jaguars last year in the playoffs and the, you know, the
41:25Jaguars, it's like you could just feel the energy.
41:28You know, they ended up having a turnover at the end of the game.
41:32But you're like, if they can just get anywhere close, like, Cam Little can just – he might attempt to move 75.
41:38I don't know. Like, and it just – it really changes everything where it's like – and, you know, you mentioned, like, comfortable field goal range.
41:45Well, there's, like, a nuance now of, like – like, I've worked with special teams coaches or head coaches, and they're like,
41:51well, what is our field goal range in the first quarter?
41:54And it's like, well, that depends. Because, like, there's, like, a – what does that mean?
41:59Does that mean you feel like it's going to go in 75% of the time, 50% of the time?
42:04Does that mean that you have a chance? Because if you have Cam Little and Aubrey, like, then the field goal range is, like, 70.
42:11So it's like, as long as we get to midfield, like, we could kick.
42:15And it's like, so there's nuance there. But there's an end of half, like, screw it range.
42:20And then there's, like, what is the actual range that you feel comfortable with, like, on, say, like, in the first quarter
42:26or the third quarter, you know, like when it's kind of in the normal flow of the game.
42:31Because, obviously, if you do miss a field goal from the 50, you know, they move the ball eight yards back.
42:37So, like, you could attempt one from the 50 if you really wanted to.
42:40But – or, you know, it's either seven or eight yards.
42:43But, like, you know, you miss it and the other team's going to start from, you know, the plus 42, plus 43 yard line.
42:50So it's really – the defensive coordinators hate it.
42:53They want to go back to the old kicking balls.
42:55They want to go back to the old touchback rule.
42:58So, I – there's an interesting world now where, like, the kickers can become so valuable if you're one of the few
43:04guys that can, like, spray the kickoff and just, like, dump it somewhere in the landing zone.
43:09You see guys have tried to do it, and especially these last couple years, like, they've tried to do it really unsuccessfully.
43:15Where, like, there's a couple guys that are good and they kick these, like, Tim Wakefield knuckleball kickoffs and you have no idea where it's going to go.
43:23And then a couple guys try to do it.
43:26It's like, oh, here, this one's out of bounds.
43:28Oh, this one landed at the 23, and now it's out of the 40.
43:32So there's, like, an interesting world there where, like, you could even argue some teams might even – if they could get
43:38a kicker that was that good at long field goals or that good at just the kickoffs, like, you could – there's
43:44a world where you could just, like – they could be so valuable because it's almost like a – if you're good
43:50at spraying those kickoffs, it can basically be a 15-yard play.
43:53You know, like, if you can just hit it somewhere in the landing zone and force them to start at the 20,
44:00you know, versus if your kicker's really bad at that and you have to either take touchbacks or what a lot of
44:06teams are doing is they're just kind of kicking it right to the goal line.
44:10And even then, like, the balls from there are probably getting out to the 32, 33-yard line a lot of times.
44:16So there's a lot of nuance to it. It's really interesting.
44:19The punters are excellent. You know, the punters are doing a good job of kind of playing keep away with the returners
44:25in a lot of cases and doing, like, directional punting and all that.
44:29But at the same time, like, the punting – the total punt counts are so much less than what they used to
44:35be, and that's probably going to continue where, like, they just – the teams are just going for so many of those.
44:41You know, once it gets, like, the minus 40, they're going for, like, such a higher rate of fourth-down attempts that the
44:47punters kind of can just hang out and, you know, have a lot of drives or halves or whatever where they're just
44:53– they're not going to get involved. What is your – in terms of taking all those things into account, starting from
44:59the minus 30 or 31, the idea that we are at a spot where 55-yard field goals, even for the average kicker,
45:05being made 63% of the time at this point, you need two-and-a-half first downs to be in field goal range.
45:11As you think about how all of those inputs should affect strategy and how offenses or teams operate, where does your mind go?
45:17Yeah, I think it just jumps out at the end of the half.
45:21And, like, there's – you really want to have all these offensive and defensive plays to handle these, like, unique time remaining
45:27and unique timeout states at the end of the half.
45:30And you're like, okay, we need to get – it used to be like, we need to get to the 39 to have a chance for our kicker.
45:38And, you know, it's just – there's a moving target.
45:40And, like, you have to keep track of, like, what's going on with the wind in this game?
45:45What's up with the weather? Like, you know, what's up with, you know, like, the colder places, the dome?
45:51Like, it's actually easier if you're in the booth to communicate that information in a dome because you don't have to worry
45:57about any of that stuff, like swirling winds and everything.
46:00That could, you know, because that can still have a huge impact.
46:03And it's weird because, like, offenses are getting better.
46:05They're going for more fourth downs. The field goals are getting better.
46:09So, like, there's, like – rather than, like, things counteracting, like, say, kickers are getting worse or offenses are getting worse, it's like, no, they're both getting better.
46:17So, it's like, how do you capture that? And, like, if you're using a 2026, like, in-game model of, like, making decisions,
46:23you have to really even, like, come up with a kick curve that is using, like, almost incomplete data because you really
46:29probably only want to use – you want to rely heavily on what took place just in 2025 in terms of the actual range factor.
46:36But you also don't want to discount the previous years where, like, say, if you were going to try to come up
46:42with the best estimate of, like, how often a 40-yard field goes in or 45 or a 50-yard field go, like, you
46:48really want to have a bigger sample than one year.
46:51So – I was going to say, it's not that many kicks if you're trying to model something, even if you can
46:57acknowledge that the environment has changed drastically. Yeah, like, oh, I have this – like, going into last year, I'm like, I have this great kicker model.
47:05I spent, you know, two months working on it.
47:07I feel like it's the best representation for every kicker and for the stadium effects and everything.
47:12Just kidding. It doesn't matter anymore because the balls are going five yards farther.
47:16So, like, that happened to me last year. Like, I almost wonder, like, because I don't know enough about the K-ball process
47:22of, like, messing around with the ball. But, like, there actually might be a world where, like, there's certain team employees that
47:28are, like, unbelievably valuable that are good at, like, just scuffing up the ball.
47:32That's real. I think that's real. We actually did a segment last year on The Athletic Show, which is the TV show
47:38I do with the company for Amazon. I don't think it ever aired.
47:42It was part of one of our pilots. It's...
47:44And Shane Graham came to the set. And we did an entire segment on how they mess with the balls.
47:50And what the actual equipment staff has to do to mess with the balls.
47:54But that was in the era where you only had half an hour before the game to do it.
47:59If you have all week, yes, there are certain guys on staff where the kicker's like, that's my dude.
48:04Like, I need him to be doing this. And the sheer amount of shit you can do to that ball to smooth
48:10it out and get it to a place where it's just going to absolutely fly off your foot now when you have all week to work on it.
48:18It is like a new world. Like, it is a completely different environment than it would have been when you only had,
48:24what, like, 90 minutes before kickoff to take that thing out of the bag.
48:28When you take the ball out of the bag and you think about how quickly you have to get that slick, hard
48:34ball to a place that the kicker feels good about compared to having it all week, it's just a massive, massive difference.
48:40Yeah. Yeah. It's actually funny. I have a crazy story regarding just field goal kicking that I think you'll appreciate.
48:46I've never told this one. Um, and I'm still, I've been looking everywhere.
48:50If anyone can, that watches this, if they can find a TV copy clip of this, this is a hundred percent, a true story.
48:56So there is a team that should not be that I'm not going to name them, but if somebody finds it, they find it.
49:03There's a team that basically had their jumbotron behind the field goal kicker or sorry, in front of the field goal kicker.
49:09And they created an optical illusion where the field goal posts appeared to be moved to the side.
49:14But like the, the, the, um, the crossbar was, was matched equivalent with the, with the previous crossbar, but the jumbotron was
49:20like, it had the visual of the, what the kicker was looking at, but like the field goal posts were moved over to the left.
49:27So like it, it was, it was the greatest idea ever.
49:30So I had this clip and, and I can't find, I'd be looking everywhere for it.
49:35We actually tried to do it with the Eagles, but they had this like tiny jumbotron and we, but we like went
49:41into the stadium and we were messing around with like the operation people.
49:44We actually set it up like that. And like the, the, the first game we did it, like the team made like every single field goal.
49:52And it was like, we were just like, whatever, we might as well just do it.
49:56Cause it's funny. But, um, they're, they're like, that's a whole interesting, I know a couple of colleges got attention for this
50:02because they were putting like chipmunks and stuff behind, behind, it's almost like, it's like the free throws in college where you
50:08get people doing crazy stuff like behind college basketball.
50:11Like there's a world where you could mess around with that stuff.
50:14And, um, this, this one was unbelievable. Like it was, it was like a Picasso of like game management stuff.
50:20And I, I will, I hope somebody can help me find it because it was so good.
50:25This is probably, it was probably somewhere between like 2015 and 18, but it was like, and I, I actually talked to one of the kickers about it.
50:32And he's like, dude, I, I, I was confused.
50:35Like, like, like it's, it's, it's brilliant. And it's like, you know, all these little edges you're looking for to try to like, you know, get something.
50:42At one point I actually, there was a sponsor like Dunkin' Donuts or somebody, and they had a wind meter in the
50:48NovaCare, uh, uh, or in the Lincoln financial field, uh, you know, like on the scoreboard and I started asking people, can
50:55we put a fake, can we, can we keep the sponsorship, but can we put up fake wind?
51:00Like when the other team is kicking and I'm like, eventually I was like, I don't want to, well, I don't want
51:06to like get in trouble or anything like that.
51:08But I don't, I was trying to find out what the NFL rules were because like, that would totally mess with you.
51:14If like, you're about to take your kick and you see, it says like 11 miles Southwest that like you thought it
51:21was like, you thought it was like three miles North that you're like, wait a minute, what the hell's going on here?
51:27Um, but yeah, like the, the, the whole world of, of the ball manipulation, it's super interesting.
51:31You know, obviously you look at baseball now, you know, I, I used to play baseball.
51:36I used to follow it pretty closely and I kind of took a break for like a decade.
51:41And then I see these speeds of these pictures and like, it's like, oh yeah, this guy hit 104, 104, 104.
51:47I was like, what is, what is going on here?
51:49But like, I'd imagine part of that too, is I think as, um, the, like, there's so much like with the AI
51:56and big data and like sports science and biomechanics and these guys like figuring out the exact optimal, Hey, this is my launch angle.
52:02This is like my spin rate. I'm not, if I do, if I, if I throw exactly in this way, or if
52:08I get Tommy John surgery, like I'm literally better.
52:11Like there's like so many nuances there. And I think you're seeing something somewhat similar to the kickers because even if you
52:17take like 2015 averages for field goal kickers and then, you know, bump it up to 2023, the kickers got way better.
52:23And that's what, you know, independent of the balls improving, the kickers are already better, significantly better.
52:28Yeah. Let's take one more quick break. And there's one more thing I wanted to hit before we got out of here.
52:34So this is the other thing I wanted to ask you about because it had come up with some offensive coaches.
52:40They talked to this spring and then it came up again, several different times when I was going around to teams for training camp.
52:47And I kind of plays into some of the work that you did about specifically what Ben Johnson was doing situationally, where
52:53you're trying to make sure you're getting as close to 50 50 on some of these play calling scenarios to just give
52:59away as little information as possible about the defense.
53:01And so the bears last year led the league in run rate on second and long.
53:06I think they were at like 40 ish percent on like second.
53:09And I don't know how we do. I think it was second and seven plus is the numbers that I put in.
53:15And for the most part, we're still in a place where teams do not run the ball a lot on second and
53:21seven plus the league wide rush rate on those plays was 31.9%.
53:25And I think, I mean, think about just fan reaction to second and long runs or even second and long run reactions
53:31from the analytics community as recently as like three or four years ago, where when you're running on second and long, it's
53:37such a minus expected points choice to do that, that I can understand getting skewered if you're doing it.
53:42But now I think we're in this place where some of that stuff might be shifting a little bit in a way that I think is pretty cool.
53:50And it's for a couple of different reasons. One, if we're going to have all these junk fronts and pressure looks from
53:56defenses, and they're going to treat second and eight like third and eight, but you still have two downs after second and eight to get a first down.
54:04I think it's a little bit easier to convince yourself that running on second and eight into some of those looks is the best choice you can make.
54:12And if you look at some of the success rate numbers on the, in those situations, the run, the overall success rate
54:18on runs on second and seven plus is like 27.6% per true media, if you're looking at it.
54:23But that success rate is based on the idea that on second down per their formula, you need like 70% of the
54:29yardage in order for it to be a successful play.
54:32But that's based on the assumption you're not going to go for on fourth down.
54:36And so if you're going to be going for it on fourth down more, and you're averaging 4.9 yards or whatever on
54:42second and eight runs now running in that situation actually becomes much more viable if fourth down is live.
54:48And the other part of this that I think is really interesting, we're going to be at a place this year, I
54:54think where more and more teams are going to be making decisions on defensive personnel that are situational and not matching offensive personnel.
55:00And so if you have more defenses on second and eight, they're going to play dime defense because the pass rate, like
55:06I just said on second and eight plus is 70% or whatever it is.
55:10Do we have yet another reason that running on second and seven plus is actually a more viable strategy than it's ever been before?
55:17So how teams offensively and defensively handle some of these second down, get back on track situations because of some of the
55:23shifting variables is something I'm really interested in. Because it's come up a lot as I've talked to coaches on both sides
55:29of the ball over the last like six months or so.
55:32Yeah, like you said, there's a lot of moving parts.
55:35And I think Ben is incredible. And like, I think it's awesome that he like literally doesn't care what anyone else does.
55:41And he's going to like do what he does.
55:43And there's like a mad scientist attitude on this stuff.
55:46I don't entirely agree with him on the run heavy strategy on the longer distances.
55:50And the reasoning is, while I do think you should not be at zero in terms of runs, I think like the
55:57discrepancy and efficiency is so large that you're just like fighting against the math.
56:00And it'd be in each incremental yard, each incremental yard back, like second and seven, it's a little bit more reasonable.
56:06Second and eight, second and nine, second and 10.
56:09And I think there's a balance there. And he's so committed to the whole 50-50 bit that like I know you mentioned
56:15the whatever it was, second and seven plus. The most common categories that I've seen with D coordinators and offensive coordinators, and
56:21even like, you know, just tools like PFF and things that they use is like second and one to two split, second
56:27and three to six split, second and seven to 10 split, second and 11 plus.
56:31And like Ben was basically like a, his run pass was like a magnet.
56:35So second and one to two is 50-50, second and three to six was 50-50, second and seven to 10 was 50-50.
56:41And I think it has like a long-term effect.
56:44And it's helpful as you go towards throughout the season that you can't game plan like what the, you don't need, you
56:50literally are just like, oh, do we call a good run defense or pass defense?
56:54Do we, do we blitz? Do we, do we, what personnel do we match?
56:58You just, you, like you said, like you're just limited and like you're kind of off balance there.
57:03But I think in some of these pivotal moments, I would love to have a 50-50 tendency.
57:08And then it's in the playoffs and it's second and seven to 10.
57:12And I'm probably throwing the majority of those, if that makes sense.
57:15Like I'd like to build up my tendencies to be 50-50 and then lean on the more efficient outcome or the more
57:21efficient option once I get in those big moments, because otherwise it's like, oh shoot, we, we kept our 50-50 thing going
57:27on second and 11 and we ran it and we gained five, but we're still in third and six.
57:32And like, you know, it's still a tough down.
57:35So I think, but I think I find it really amusing when, when people are like, has Ben Johnson's offense been solved?
57:41Or like they asked him, like, are you worried people are going to figure it out?
57:46And it's like, it's like, no, I'm not worried.
57:48We were 50-50 at everything. They're going to, they're just going to figure out we're 50-50.
57:52And like, I was, I used to, you know, every single week for a long time, like I've given the D coordinator,
57:59like, hey, here's all the tendencies I have. And so like, we're playing the Bears last year with the Raiders and I'm talking to Pat Graham.
58:06I'm like, don't really have anything. Like, good luck, bro.
58:09Do you think that in your, I mean, obviously you've done this for long enough in the last decade that you were a part of this.
58:16Is, do you think that consideration in limiting your tendencies and breaking tendencies and being mindful of your tendencies, do we think
58:22there's a little bit more focus on it now?
58:25Or do you think that more people are just so vocal about it now?
58:28Because anecdotally, I feel like I've heard about this and the considerations surrounding it more in the last year than I had previously.
58:35But it might just be the types of conversations I'm having.
58:38Like, I'm not using that as a true signal.
58:40As somebody who has like did this all the time and was working in that space, do you feel as if more
58:47coaches, coaches are becoming a little bit more sensitive to the idea than they would have previously in a different era?
58:52Yeah, I would say it's highly correlated to the increase in analytics.
58:56Makes sense. In terms of the staffing, there used to be hilariously egregious run pass tendencies.
59:00Like, oh, this team takes out their starting tight end and 11 personnel.
59:04They run 94%. It's like the numbers, the absolute numbers you used to see in like 2016, 17, 18, 19.
59:09It was almost like you could see like this team doesn't have an analytics department or this team doesn't understand self-scouting or
59:15like this team is just like it's all ball, all scheme X's and O's and they're missing out on a lot of these things.
59:22And now I think like, you know, you get coaches that have been in so many different places and there's been enough
59:28time period where it's like, hey, I was with the Jets and we had this run pass self-scout or I was with the Cardinals and we had this.
59:36And like that gets brought into like a staff and you're like, okay, well, we should check which receivers are in the
59:42game or like we should check, you know, what our under center, you know, run pass tendency is if we're in second and seven to 10.
59:49Like that's a huge one for a long time that I mentioned this on, you know, on Twitter, but like this, the
59:56alternators, like the guys who would throw incomplete on first down and then have like a really high run rate.
60:01So it's actually, it's five times as bad if you say like through incomplete on first down and then were they under
60:07center on second and 10 because some of these guys are like, oh, incomplete better go to my runs.
60:13There's current play callers right now that are like over 80% run in that situation.
60:17And, but like, like there legitimately used to be like ones where it's like, oh, okay.
60:21Like this top tier receiver is not on the field and 11 personnel.
60:25This team's 88% run over like a hundred plays.
60:27Like those, those are kind of long gone a little bit.
60:30And then the, some of the best coaches that you're around, like they, they want to know every single week, like what are our tendencies?
60:37Like if you were game planning us, like what would you be trying to take advantage of?
60:42Like, and then it's, then there's the whole world of like, I totally respect it.
60:46It was like the Greg, I get, I told people, you know, I mentioned this one on Twitter too.
60:52It was like Greg Roman had a stat from 2019 about week nine through his last game calling plays with the chargers
60:58that they were like on second and one to two and they were not on the goal line.
61:03They were had 135 runs in one pass. And it was like, this is, this is what we do.
61:08We don't care that, you know, we're going to do it.
61:11And we're just going to, that's just who we are.
61:14And like, he act, they actually were like pretty effect.
61:17Like if you're, it depends on what you're maximizing.
61:19If you're just maximizing serious success rather than expected points, then running actually makes a lot of sense there.
61:24If you're pure, like expected point maximizing, then doing what Ben does and trying to go for big plays makes sense.
61:30But it's the same thing with the Eagles. And I, and I, I'll say this is like, you know, I, I, again,
61:36like I, I freaking, I was with or Jaguar.
61:39I was like, I was like trying to get with a higher pen shot.
61:43So like he's, he's, this guy's a prodigy, like in terms of you look at the, in the analytics metrics and like all these different expected value things.
61:51But I, I find it interesting that he, he wants to go for explosives on third and one and fourth and one.
61:57And I, I don't necessarily view things the same there.
62:00I'm a little bit, if we're living in a world where possessions are the biggest currency, is that the right way to treat those situations?
62:07I, I, I live, I live in a world where this was sort of the Jason Kelsey, Jeff Steltland endorsed attitude of
62:13we're just going to be a machine and we're going to get a first down.
62:17And that's why, like, you know, I've, I've been a part of teams where like, we're going to, we probably can run
62:23every single time on third and one or fourth and one the entire season.
62:27Like maybe it's not entirely sneaks, but like, we're just going to run every single play.
62:31And that's, you know, in many of the years, the best series success rate teams are the teams that are just incredibly run heavy there.
62:38Now they're, you know, the max, if you're, if you're going to sneak 80% of those, like your, you know, your max
62:44expected points is obviously not going to be as high.
62:47Your, your explosive play rate is going to be like zero, but like, you know, like you have to think about particularly,
62:53you know, like a team like new England that never really had like a star explosive pass, uh, explosive run game with,
62:59with, uh, Brady, but they always were like a pretty good rush success rate team.
63:04And in all those pivotal moments, like, you know, they would just take the first down and like, you know, or either
63:10Brady's going to sneak it or a high, you know, super efficient kind of downhill run.
63:14And, um, I, I, I do think that you, you like hunting, like exposing yourself to a lot of variants can be
63:20cool over the course of a 17 game season.
63:23But in a playoff moment, I kind of just want the, the, the, the low, like when every single moment, like you're
63:29on the headset and you're like heartbeat slowing down, you're like, my entire career is going to be based on this play.
63:35Like when the Philly special play happened, like my heart almost like came out of my chest and I'm like, I'm not
63:41even gonna be allowed in Philly ever again. If this, if this is a complete, because Philly fans knew who I was,
63:47but they didn't know I had nothing to do with like picking the play.
63:51And I'm like, I'm like, they're going to kill me.
63:54But like, but like, you know, you're in those moments where you're like, I just, I want to reduce risk.
64:00And like, I want to like, that doesn't mean not go for fourth downs, but like, I'd like to just choose like the most methodical outcome.
64:07Um, and I think that's sort of part of what Belichick sort of secret sauce was for the longest time was absolutely.
64:13It was not, they like, Oh, Peyton Manning has more yards or this team has higher yards per attempt or, you know, scored more total points.
64:20But when it came to just winning, they, that's just all they did.
64:24And so I think it's a really cool kind of discrepancy.
64:27You're going to see more teams taking the second and one to two shots.
64:31I've heard from several people from several teams are like, Oh, we thought that, you know, Ben being the past heaviest guy thing was awesome there.
64:38We're going to do it. But that also means you're going to see some teams get in a second to one and
64:44then not convert the set of downs like that.
64:47There's going to be, you have to live with that though.
64:50That that's a situation where you can live with that.
64:53I think over the course of time that that's an easy one.
64:56Like that, that's something where you can't live in like the anecdotal failures.
65:00When we get into third down and especially fourth down trying to find explosives.
65:03That's one where I think you and I are in the same boat there.
65:07Like, I don't know what the numbers would say, whether, and I'm, I would be curious to ask you this in, as
65:13you've looked at it, maybe you don't have a quick answer to this, but if we're comparing explosive play and like total
65:20EPA, like EP based based decision making versus drive success rate over time, which do you think is the more valuable metric
65:26to a healthy offense drive success rate or expected points?
65:29Drive success rate. Right. I think it's clear. So that's, that, that to me is, that's the answer, right?
65:34Like, let's just get the first down and then we can continue to play.
65:38Well, yeah, right. And, but then it, it, it, it's, it becomes a debate of what are you, when are you going
65:44to lean on maximizing the drive success rate? When are you going to lean on that?
65:48And I'll, I'll say this, it's a little bit more nuanced than that.
65:52What, what I think people miss misunderstand is that one incremental yard on a third one or fourth one is worth a massive amount of expected points.
65:59Yes. And so like, yes, the 12 yard gain on fourth and one is worth not that much more different than the
66:06one yard gain from, from a relative standpoint of the, the failure outcome is, is horrible in terms of expected points.
66:11So like the reduced failure outcome is partly why, like, I would argue, like say a fourth, you know, a third and
66:18one QB sneak is, is probably going to have the, a higher expected, you know, a higher EPA than, um, you know, some long developing play action concept.
66:25That's trying to push the ball down the field, just from a pure standpoint of the, the failures are going to be so much less.
66:32Um, and then I'll leave, I'll say this too.
66:35If there's, I would, I would have a different plan on fourth and one and third one.
66:40And the idea being is like, you have two chances on third and one, but, and then also on fourth and one,
66:46you don't care about lost yardage plays. Cause like, whatever a zero yard gain is the same as a minus three for
66:52the, for all, you know, in the grand scheme of things.
66:55And you get more teams selling out with like these exotic zeros or like just everyone's just screaming up the middle, trying to stop a sneak.
67:02And like, you see the Mark Andrews thing against the Browns and like, you see kind of, uh, you know, this past play going for a big play.
67:10But I think if, if I'm playing a D coordinator and I'm going for fourth and one at my own 42 yard
67:16line, and he wants to sell out to stop the sneak on fourth and one, then I would love to just, you
67:22know, run a toss crack play because I might get 58 yards and a touchdown.
67:26Um, now I'd be a little bit more worried to do that if it's third and one, because if we lose six
67:32yards or four yards and we're punting. So like, there's like a balance there of like, of, of sort of classifying those plays a little bit differently.
67:40But, um, I, as somebody who's fought the QB sneak battle for a long time, and like, I respect your attitude of
67:46like maximizing expected points when I've brought up to people like, well, you can try to, you know, we can try to call deep shots and whatnot.
67:54I've noticed that that like almost opened up the door for coaches to not call sneaks.
67:58Yeah. So like, so like from my personal experience, I was like, okay, well, I'm just not going to advocate for that anymore.
68:05Like, I'm going to just stick to one thing.
68:07And like, this is the actionable thing. Like just sneak it, bro.
68:10Like don't, don't overcomplicate it. That's, I think that's ultimately where I'm going to land.
68:15And I think that those are going to be the moments where, even if I understand the decision making, where my potential
68:21frustration with Ben Johnson creeps in over the course of this season and potentially his entire tenure, because I'm with you in that.
68:27I think that there are a lot of prodigal aspects to what he's doing, but that's the one area where it's like,
68:33come on, man, let's just make it easy on ourselves.
68:36I just hope he doesn't play this in like one of his AI meetings that he apparently runs now, like, and says,
68:42like, it just rips me or rips you or something.
68:45It says these guys are idiots or these stat boys or something.
68:48But that being said, he's probably going to go, I, you know, I, I was, I was soured on when he said
68:54he's going to, you know, he wants to set the record for most points ever.
68:59And like, maybe I keep some bolted board material.
69:01I just don't think it's realistic in this era with less drives.
69:04Like there's so many less drives and, you know, they're playing teams like the Packers that just grind clock.
69:10And, and, uh, um, you know, that being said, you know, if there was a guy who was going to do it,
69:16like he's, he's the best play caller in the league in my view, or, you know, he's top three at worst and,
69:22um, you know, I, I'm excited to see what they do this year.
69:26Let's, you know, see if, if Caleb can avoid the man curse and like the, uh, I, I, I, I loved just
69:32like even whatever team I worked for, I loved watching whatever, you know, it'd be like a Wednesday and I'd want to
69:38pull up his tape and just see what he did the last week because I'm going to find laterals or flea flickers
69:44or, or like this super cool blocking scheme. I never even thought of.
69:48And I'm like showing the O-line coach and he's like, dude, I need like an entire off season to try to install that.
69:54But I know you're preaching to the choir here, sir.
69:57You, you know, you don't have to tell me.
69:59I, uh, I feel it's been fun hearing a lot of people that I respect have similar observations here over this, this
70:05off season, as I think he's gotten even more elevated, which has been fun.
70:09We could do this all day and we should do it again at some point during the season.
70:14I would love to check in with, we're, you know, six weeks in and all the stuff that you've seen about how the league is gone.
70:22And we will do that again at some point as we get a little bit more information.
70:26But before we get out of here, tell the people where they can check out the work that you're currently doing.
70:32Yeah. So I'm just on X slash Twitter at just Ryan Paganetti.
70:36And then I started a, uh, you know, a YouTube show with Nick Underhill.
70:39It's called Paganetti and Underhill. And we're really kind of just digging into different national stories with the kind of a statistical angle.
70:46And, and, and really it's, it's been super fun kind of entering that space and enjoying it and everything.
70:51And, um, I'm, I'm really excited for how the season's going to go.
70:55Awesome. Absolutely love it. Appreciate the time. Appreciate all of you guys for listening.
70:59We will be back tomorrow. Until then. Talk to you soon.
71:02Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button.
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