2026 NFC South preview

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 48 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Aug 31, 2026

Published

Mon, August 31, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Baker MayfieldBryce YoungChris GodwinJonathon BrooksAlvin KamaraBryce LanceChris OlaveEmeka EgbukaJalen CokerJalen McMillanJordyn TysonJuwan JohnsonTed HurstTravis Etienne

Player analysis

Player insights

Alvin Kamara

NegativeUsage58:38

Alvin Kamara struggled significantly last season, finishing as the only running back with 100+ carries to have a run-over-expectation rate below 30%, leading the source to describe the Saints' rushing attack as 'really, really bad.'

Insight page

Baker Mayfield

NegativeProjection20:45

Baker Mayfield is described as an imperfect but versatile quarterback who can execute various schemes, including under-center play-action and shotgun drop-back passing.

Insight page

NegativeValue34:07

Baker Mayfield is in a contract stalemate and the team is not tied to him long-term, creating uncertainty about his future as the Buccaneers' quarterback if the season does not go well.

Insight page

Bryce Lance

NegativeSleeper72:42

Bryce Lance is an intriguing, raw prospect with 4.3 speed who could potentially fill the third receiver role for the Saints if his usage is kept streamlined as a vertical threat.

Insight page

Bryce Young

NegativeProjection47:48

The source expresses significant skepticism regarding Bryce Young's long-term viability, noting he has never ranked better than the 25th best quarterback in the NFL and the team has struggled with explosive pass plays throughout his tenure.

Insight page

NegativeProjection55:36

The source views Bryce Young as a potential reclamation project, suggesting that if he can reach a 'Sam Darnold level' of play, the Panthers could become competitive in the NFC, though this outcome is considered a remote best-case scenario.

Insight page

Chris Godwin

NegativeRole26:44

Chris Godwin is expected to play in the slot and carry the load for the offense, but his age and history of injuries make his outlook uncertain.

Insight page

NegativeProjection30:46

The source expresses skepticism regarding Chris Godwin's ability to return to his peak form, noting that an 85th-percentile outcome for him already feels off the table at this stage of his career.

Insight page

Chris Olave

PositiveUsage61:37

Chris Olave played phenomenally in the back half of last season and remains the primary receiving option for the Saints, with his role potentially being reframed to accommodate new vertical threats.

Insight page

Emeka Egbuka

NegativeInjury25:31

Emeka Egbuka is currently dealing with a week-to-week toe injury, which is a major concern as he is expected to be the centerpiece of the Buccaneers' passing game.

Insight page

Jalen Coker

PositiveRole47:18

Jalen Coker is viewed as a good NFL receiver who provides stylistic versatility and blocking ability, which the source believes will unlock Tedrow McMillan's potential in the slot.

Insight page

Jalen McMillan

NegativeInjury27:16

Jalen McMillan is returning from a serious neck injury, and his ability to regain his previous form remains a question mark for the offense.

Insight page

Jonathon Brooks

PositiveBreakout47:25

The source expresses excitement about finally seeing Jonathan Brooks play, as this appears to be the first time he will be available for the Panthers.

Insight page

PositiveUsage50:30

Jonathan Brooks is highlighted as a potential solution to the Panthers' lack of YAC (yards after catch) players from the previous season, offering a new dimension to the offense.

Insight page

Jordyn Tyson

NegativeInjury58:05

Jordan Tyson is dealing with an injury that will keep him out until at least week six, which the source notes is a major blow to the Saints' offense and dampens their overall outlook.

Insight page

Juwan Johnson

NegativeRole62:21

Juwan Johnson is described as a solid, reliable tight end who is utilized by the Saints as a vertical piece in their passing offense.

Insight page

Ted Hurst

NegativeRole27:23

Ted Hurst is viewed as a necessary contributor for the Buccaneers' receiver corps, though as a mid-round rookie, his immediate impact is unknown.

Insight page

Travis Etienne

PositiveValue57:48

The source highlights Travis Etienne as a significant upgrade for the Saints' running game, noting that his $48 million over four years contract is a reasonable price for a quality back, especially compared to the team's poor rushing performance last season.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,403

0:00Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays.

0:02The division preview series rolls on today with the NFC South.

0:05It's probably the weirdest division for a whole host of reasons.

0:08Dave, I think, said a success is for every single team to win the division.

0:13I'm not sure we have another one like that.

0:15The only team without a team at the table.

0:18The only division without a team at the table.

0:20A lot of strange considerations with this one. It led to some really fun conversations.

0:24So let's dig into the NFC South preview with me, Dave and Derek right now.

0:28Digging into the NFC South today, like the other episodes that we've done, we're doing this in order of divisional odds, not in order of last year's finish.

0:36So for anyone who's going to be upset that we're doing the Bucks first, that's the reason, at least for being consistent over all the shows.

0:43The Lord's division. Been looking forward to this one.

0:46Ready to talk some NFC South football. Without giving anything away.

0:49I don't think this is a spoiler. This is the only division where part of my defining a successful season was when the division for all four teams.

0:56That's that's the bar you have to clear the I'll say the what stood out of this division is there were multiple

1:02categories where I just didn't have a good answer.

1:05And it wasn't even for lack of enthusiasm. There is.

1:07I just think that these teams are in such a weird middle ground state that we'll get into it.

1:13There were some things like what's keeping you up at night?

1:16Nothing. Nothing about this team could push me to a place where I would be concerned about their them on any larger level.

1:22You're not losing sleep about the 2026 Atlanta Falcons.

1:24That one actually was a couple answers, but there is one team that we'll dig into.

1:29Because like being up all night, it suggests that you have like super high aspirations for the team that could be nuked.

1:35And it's like for a lot of these teams, it's like somebody's got to win the division.

1:39But none of these feel like like probably every other division in the NFL has like a Super Bowl contender on some level.

1:46And I don't know if the NFC South has one.

1:49We have a table. They were literally the only one off, right?

1:52They were the only division where there is no team on the table right now.

1:56I'm staring at these helmets. And lest I sound too glib, I am genuinely excited to talk about this division.

2:01There's stuff here. There is definitely stuff here before we sound like we're writing the NFC South.

2:06Oh, there 100% is. It's a weirder division than all the other ones.

2:10Absolutely. And so I think that it just took a little bit of a different approach with pretty much every single installment of this.

2:16Let's start with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They're offseason in 60 seconds.

2:20Brought in Zach Robinson as the offensive coordinator. Brought back Kate Otten in free agency.

2:24Signed Alex Anzalone, Kenny Gainwell, A'shaun Robinson, Al-Kadeen Muhammad.

2:26Lost Mike Evans, Jamel Dean, Logan Hall in free agency.

2:29In the draft, Ruben Bain, Josiah Trotter, Ted Hurst, Keontae Scott over the first four rounds.

2:33With each of these teams, we're going to kick off the conversation with what you are most excited to watch in this upcoming season.

2:40Derek, why don't you kick us off? What are you most excited to watch in regard to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

2:46I think the Todd Bulls defense might kind of be back.

2:49I think this front seven specifically might wreck shit and just like explode people's faces.

2:53Like Vita Vea, you know, he's got his contract now.

2:55He should be happy. A'shaun Robinson is on this team.

2:58I think him being just like one of your other solid starter help you in run defense goes a really long way.

3:04Some big old boys. Some big old boys. Because Ruben Bain is technically not large, but he's a very stout man who

3:10wants to kill everybody that gets in front of his pass.

3:13I mean, the poor Chiefs tight end that he when they dropped him into coverage, which obviously love that seeing that from Todd Bulls.

3:20But they drop him into cover and he just puts a tight end in the ground.

3:24That was amazing. Josiah Trotter, the linebacker they brought or they drafted in the second round after Bain.

3:29He's been hitting people in the preseason. Alex Anzalone is an upgraded linebacker.

3:33Like they brought in so many difference makers, I think, up front.

3:36Hopefully you get Klaja Kansi healthy. It's just like there's a chance that this unit just feels vastly, vastly different than it has the past couple of seasons.

3:44I have the same answer. I think it's just the injection of youth in that group as well.

3:49Along with and I would include Kansi as part of that.

3:52He didn't play. He barely had a season last year.

3:54Remember when he got back in that Bucs game at the end of the year?

3:58I was like, is that Klaja Kansi? And that's the year we had from Klaja Kansi last year.

4:03He hurt on Monday night football against the Texans.

4:06And the Bucs were very exciting in the first six or seven weeks of the season.

4:10And that was like the first thing that went against them.

4:13And yeah, he didn't pop back up until he showed back up in December and was like, what the hell's been going on here?

4:20So we have Klaja Kansi coming back. We got Ruben Bain dropped into this thing.

4:24Josiah Trotter, like Derek mentioned. Yaya Diaby had a really good season last year.

4:28If you just look at the overall production as really the only real threat as a pass rusher other than Vitavia and that entire team.

4:35They had Hassan Redick, but obviously Hassan Redick is near the end.

4:38And so this does have a chance to be a transformed group.

4:41There's part of me, I'm already like contradicting myself by saying that I'm excited to watch this.

4:46There's part of me that thinks we might be getting a little bit over our skis based on like three Ruben Bain clips from the preseason.

4:53But I'm willing to do that. I'm willing to get overly excited about him and this group overall.

4:58But there's part of me that in the back of my mind, I'm like, are we doing this a little bit too

5:04fast based on three or four plays we saw in the preseason?

5:07They made him a Bain Batman face mask. How am I not supposed to be excited about that?

5:12So that's the reason? That's why it's going to work out and they're going to be good?

5:17Based on what we have to go on, it's just fun.

5:20Let's have some fun. I'm letting myself do that.

5:22It's also letting myself do that. It's not just Bain and it's not just the front.

5:27I basically agree with y'all. But in general, the Bucs defense kind of suddenly looks younger.

5:31And a big part of that, I don't think we've brought him up.

5:35Levante David retired. And it's going to be. I don't think I mentioned that.

5:39It's going to be sad and surreal not to see him in a Bucs uniform.

5:43But it was time based on the way he was playing last year.

5:46And he could have come back and served a role.

5:49But I don't want to remember Levante David that way.

5:52And so like Vita Veya is an older player.

5:54Antoine Winfield was a rookie on the Super Bowl team.

5:57But for the most part, that core of guys that won them that Super Bowl with Tom Brady has mostly phased out of this thing.

6:04And now it's Ruben Bain. You're hoping Kalijah Kansi he's healthier.

6:07Yaya is still a pretty young player. And then the secondary is just loaded with young guys.

6:11You lost Jamel Dean to Pittsburgh, who he's only 29, but he's a third contract cornerback.

6:16Like that's fairly old. Jacob Parrish was exciting last year.

6:19Tykee Smith. I know Derek and I love Tykee Smith.

6:21We haven't seen a ton of Benjamin Morrison, but that's another highly drafted guy from last year that you can insert into this thing.

6:28And just all of a sudden, Keontae Scott might play the nickel for this team.

6:32Keontae Scott, you want to talk about overreacting to the preseason.

6:35Keontae Scott was having some fun in the second preseason game against the Chiefs.

6:39They were blitzing him. He was the draft community was very ready to be excited about Ruben Bain and Keontae Scott.

6:45That is the first glimpse of the preseason. Definitely part of it is that these are draft Nick crushes who are living up to the billing.

6:52We'll see how that ages during the season. But they just have young, explosive, exciting guys on a unit that didn't feel

6:58that way for the last couple of years. And so I'm incredibly excited to see what it looks like.

7:03For each of these teams, we're going to chat about what we're watching the first month of the season, just as a

7:09curiosity, something that you feel is a lingering question heading into the same season, something you want a little bit more clarity about.

7:15I'm going to kick this one off. Where does this version of the Bucs offense fall on the spectrum of the ones

7:21that we've seen over the last few years? And I mean that in terms of quality.

7:26And I also mean that in terms of approach.

7:28You look at last season, they were 23rd in passing success rate.

7:31Tampa was in the second half of last year.

7:34This was not a good offense after that initial stretch when we were talking about Baker as potential MVP candidate.

7:39You can figure out why that is. Mike Evans was hurt a good chunk of last year.

7:44Ibuka gets hurt at one point last year. Baker's dealing with a shoulder injury.

7:48The offensive line. It's funny that the offensive line, as it got healthier, the offense got worse.

7:53But for the most part, there was still a lot of extenuating circumstances in terms of health and personnel as to why the offense fell off.

8:00On top of the fact that by the end of the season, they needed to replace their offensive coordinator.

8:05And so do we get something closer to the 2024 offense when this is a top five unit by every conceivable measure

8:11and it gets Liam Cohen a head coaching job?

8:13Or are we sitting closer to the 20th, 22nd best offense in the league that feels outmanned, outgunned, incapable of doing any

8:19real damage as we get deeper into the season?

8:22Where we fall on that spectrum between those two poles, Derek, to me is going to go a long way in determining

8:28just how real this Buccaneers team feels over the course of the year.

8:31And I think a big part of that, too, and this kind of segues into where I was thinking of it, like

8:38Bucky Irving was not healthy for a lot of last season.

8:41And he was electric. And when he was on that field, he was not good.

8:45His numbers last year are heinous. He was a bad player last year, but his rookie year, he was electric for them.

8:51Like, he was just so good at all of the stuff they were doing.

8:54And where that leads into my point is I'm kind of curious on what the run game looks like because they still

9:01have their offensive line coach, Kevin Carberry, who was there with Liam Cohen when it was a lot more gap scheme.

9:06It was pulling guys. It was. And I think that's not just what the offensive line is good at, which I think it is.

9:13Like Tristan Wirfs can move. All their guards can move.

9:16The center can move. It's also that I think Bucky Irving is just good at that.

9:20Like, he's very quick. He's, like, very willing to read that stuff out and get downhill on some of those stuff.

9:26I don't really think of him as much as, like, a wide zone one cut runner.

9:30And so them being a little bit more gap scheme makes sense to me.

9:34But they bring in Zach Robinson as offensive coordinator.

9:36He's coming from a spot where it was all outside zone.

9:39Like, the Falcons were all outside zone really for the last handful of years and obviously different offensive line coaches.

9:45But I wonder how much of that he's bringing over.

9:48Or is it going to be a lot of the old run game stuff they have been used to doing?

9:53My assumption is that it will be the old run game stuff that they're used to doing.

9:58Because I don't think Zach Robinson is somebody that, given his druthers, would just have a 31st ranked gap scheme run team.

10:04I think that was mostly a product of Dwayne Letford coming from that world and that being what he was really comfortable

10:10with in Atlanta over several different coaching staffs. I mean, the Falcons, if you look at where they ranked in percentage of

10:16zone runs every single year when he was there, it was up near the top of the league.

10:21And I think that's mostly because he wanted to play that way.

10:24I felt like they were trying to figure out ways to incorporate other types of runs into what they were doing over the last couple years.

10:31And there really wasn't a cohesive way they could do that.

10:34And I think that's part of what I'm really curious about, period.

10:38Bucs were third in total gap scheme runs last year.

10:40The Falcons were 31st. Atlanta, 80% gun last year, which is one of the highest rates in the entire league.

10:4631st in the NFL last year the Falcons were in the percentage of play action they use.

10:50That's all from true media. Where do we fall in that stuff?

10:54I assume it's going to be more under center.

10:56I assume it's going to be more play action.

10:59I assume it's going to be more gap scheme run.

11:01And I think that kind of, Derek, changes and shifts the way I think about the quality and capability of a Zach Robinson offense.

11:08Because I do think they did some interesting stuff over the last couple years.

11:12But because they had kind of boxed themselves into this weird corner schematically where it was a lot of pistol and it

11:18was a lot of gun and it wasn't a lot of play action, it really did feel like there was a disconnect

11:24between what the passing game and the running game looked like.

11:27And if we can find a more cohesive marriage between those two things with this offensive line, with a skill position group

11:33that there are some questions about, but I still think can be a fine group by the end of the season.

11:39Are we talking about a team that can get to be like a top 12 offense again?

11:43Because I think that's where my concerns about the Zach Robinson era in Atlanta are.

11:47It just felt like it was a little bit of a hodgepodge where it never felt like everything really had cohesion with

11:53every aspect of what they were trying to be offensively.

11:56And I think you can figure out a reason for that.

11:59You can tell yourself a story about why it felt that way.

12:03Do we get to a place in Tampa where it does feel like it's all a part of a bigger hole that

12:09is in service of them being a good offense?

12:11How much, you're telling yourself a story, but how much of that do you think is very specific quarterbacks that you're trying to?

12:17I think it's 100% what it was. I think that's exactly why they wanted to play that way.

12:22And they, I mean, you look at the, we're in the preseason and they're under center like their first five plays of the preseason.

12:29I don't, I don't think this is going to be like a shotgun pistol team.

12:33That's, I don't think a lot of the things they did in Atlanta.

12:37I don't think those are things that Zach Robinson believes in his bones.

12:40I think they just did them because they thought that was best for that group of players.

12:45And this is a different group of players. That's what I'm excited to see because Baker, even if he's, you know, kind

12:51of an imperfect quarterback, he can do everything. Like he can do the under center play action stuff.

12:56He's pretty good at being in the gun and throwing empty.

12:59And because I mean, 2023, when he started to kind of have this revival was a little bit more gun.

13:04We're just kind of like five out in the route, throwing drop back stuff, all that jazz.

13:09And then 2024, it was a little bit more of a mix with that stuff on top of some more of the

13:15under center gap scheme play action with Liam Cohen.

13:17Obviously 2025 was so up and down because a lot of the injuries and they just, I think when you had so

13:23many young players at pass catcher on top of all the injuries, it was just hard for them to figure out exactly

13:29what they wanted to be in the passing offense.

13:32But I do think if there's anything that I really did enjoy from watching Zach Robinson's offenses, it's how he was able

13:38to get, get guys in and out of the slot with like quick motion, like him just being able to, they played

13:44so many tight stacks and then they would just shoot the number, whoever's the inside player, shoot them out to the number one.

13:50Now you have a new slot player, just little stuff like that to create in this offense matchups for Ibuka, or if

13:56McMillan looks healthy, or if Chris Godwin still has something in the tank.

14:00Like I do think if that part of the offense can stay and he feels less hamstrung in some of the stuff

14:06he has to do because the quarterbacks aren't so specific in the offensive line is going from being really specific zone heavy

14:12to like we can do anything because we have monsters.

14:15You can start to sell yourself on why this offense could get back to closer to something like 2024.

14:20I was looking at some of the numbers of the offensive line from last year and their most used group they had out there on 35% of snaps.

14:28That was it. That group was Tristan Wirfs at left tackle, Graham Barton at center, Luke Adecki at right tackle, with Mike Jordan and Dan Feeney at guard.

14:35That was their most used offensive line group and that was still only 35% of snaps.

14:40Their second most used offensive line group to get them to 50% of snaps had Luke Haggard at right guard and Charlie Heck at right tackle.

14:47So we just never saw the Bucs offensive line at any point last year.

14:51And obviously Cody Mock missed almost the entire season, but even not accounting for him, the other four guys, we never saw

14:57them play together for any extended stretch last year.

14:59And so them getting a normal amount of offensive line health.

15:02And I think overall they finished either 28th or 29th and adjust the games lost on offense.

15:07But along the offensive line, I think it was even worse.

15:10Nobody wants to hear this when you go from six and two to eight and nine, but their offense was a mess

15:16all year long and Baker played the whole season, but he wasn't right.

15:19No. Hopefully that can course correct this year. So what do you watch in the first month of the season?

15:25I don't think you could drop a better example of how quickly life changes in the NFL than the receiver core because

15:31Mecca Ibuka was a luxury pick and everybody was like, did you need to do this?

15:35Well, at least you have the best receiver core in the league now.

15:39And one year later, Mike Evans is in San Francisco.

15:42Actually, don't even fast forward a year. Jalen McMillan broke his neck in the preseason, which was the start of this whole thing.

15:48And obviously Evans got hurt. Godwin was down for a good chunk of last year.

15:52So a book goes from being a luxury pick to the centerpiece of this.

15:56Then he gets hurt. And now heading into 2026, it's a book who right now is dealing with a toe injury.

16:02That is week to week, according to Todd Bowles.

16:04And Chris Godwin is at full health, but he was drafted in 2017.

16:08And he's had a variety of devastating injuries. The last two years have been tough on him.

16:12I mean, I'm hearing all of the best shape of his life.

16:16Zach Robinson's going to put him in the slot.

16:18Chris Godwin's ready to carry the load for this offense.

16:21I hope that's true. But I mean, it's been a long career for Chris Godwin.

16:25It blew my mind when I was looking at Chris Godwin and he's only 30.

16:29Like in NFL years, you could have told me he's like 42 years old.

16:33So, I mean, you're counting on Chris Godwin turning the clock back.

16:36You're counting on Jalen McMillan coming back from a very, very serious injury last year and being somebody that looks exciting and continues that trajectory.

16:43Ted Hurst is fun. I also think they kind of need Ted Hurst.

16:46Yeah, like you can't really afford for Ted Hurst to be like a guy that's not doing stuff for you.

16:52I just think about skill set wise when you move on from Mike Evans, even if you've got a lot of other

16:58guys in the building, you don't have a lot of other guys who are giving you what Mike Evans was giving you.

17:04Who's the vertical outside the numbers player in a collection of receivers that has Chris Godwin, Mekka Buka and Jalen McMillan?

17:10I do think it's fun that Zach Robinson's let me have my guy acquisition was David Sills.

17:14Like he's hanging out here now, if that counts.

17:17But that's not enough to make me feel better.

17:19I think it would be better for everyone if Ted Hurst was useful as a rookie.

17:24The fact that Ibuka is already coming into the season banged up is just, to me, like a big flashing light that I'm not feeling very good about.

17:31Well, and this was like, this is really my more like what's keeping me up.

17:36Like, do we ever get the best version of this wider season?

17:39That's where I sit with it. We already did.

17:41That's where I sit with it. How many snaps did we get of Evans, Godwin and Ibuka last year?

17:47I know they were healthy. They were definitely healthy for chunks of the year, but it wasn't a lot.

17:52It wasn't a lot. And I like you just laid out.

17:55I don't know if there's reason to believe we're going to get that this year.

17:59Like Ibuka was banged up for a lot of last year with the hamstring thing, and he's coming into this year with a toe injury.

18:06McMillan had a neck sprain. And like, even if he's theoretically been healthy this offseason, that's just like a very difficult injury

18:12to try to figure out how a guy is going to look coming off of that pretty consistently.

18:17Definitely. Godwin missed about half of the last two seasons combined.

18:20And like you said, he's getting up there a little bit in age.

18:23And then Ted Hurst, I think, has shown some stuff, but it's like, it's still a mid-round rookie and you don't really

18:29know what that's going to give you right away.

18:32And so I think the best version of this receiver court, if they're all healthy and they play in their 85th, 90th

18:38percentile outcomes, it's like a top five unit in the league.

18:41I just, it's easy to see how like one or two dominoes start to fall out of that.

18:46And it just doesn't feel like that unit. The Godwin part of that, playing in an 85th percentile outcome already feels like it's off the table.

18:53Like, I just can't imagine what that would even look like at this stage.

18:57And maybe that's wrong. Maybe I should have more faith in his ability to bounce back and be closer to that level of player.

19:03But I want to see that first. I just think you're putting such a huge burden on Emeka Ibuka to be the centerpiece of this passing game.

19:11And I think I'm okay with that based on what he showed as a rookie when he was healthy last year.

19:16But the fact that he's already banged up coming into the year, that just makes me itchy.

19:21Because I think, like you're saying, Derek, it feels like we're already far away from what the best version of the guys

19:27whose names you see on paper could potentially look like.

19:30And that includes, with Godwin and Ibuka, the two most important pieces of that.

19:34Let's talk about what's keeping us up at night about the 2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

19:38Dave, let it rip. What is keeping you up at night about this team?

19:42I first had this thought about a week ago because the Jags and Bucs did a joint practice.

19:47Which, first of all, I saw that and was like, well, it's nice that the feelings aren't too hard after the way things happened with Liam Cohen there.

19:54And he was going to come back to the Bucs and then he changed his mind and there was all this subterfuge.

20:00But as soon as I thought about that, I was like, oh man, it's tough if you're a Bucs fan probably to

20:06hear Liam Cohen giving quotes about your team as the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

20:11And what keeps me awake at night, even as a Bucs sympathizer, as a fan of Baker Mayfield, it keeps me awake

20:17at night thinking that this is as good as it's going to get for the Buccaneers.

20:21And if it doesn't get better, you're probably talking at the very least about a head coaching change.

20:26I don't think Jason Light is in any danger.

20:29But Todd Bowles is probably out if the Bucs don't win the division.

20:32And so if they win the division, maybe even if you win the division.

20:36Sure. Yeah. Depending on how you win the division.

20:38Yes. And how you look in the playoffs, which is something I think we should talk about.

20:43There are a lot of outcomes here that lead to a coaching change.

20:47Baker is in a contract stalemate. He voiced his frustration with it at the beginning of training camp.

20:52So you're not tied to the quarterback. Maybe that's a good thing.

20:55And you might be moving on from the head coach if this season doesn't go well.

20:59And the thought of where the Bucs were heading into last season and how excited I know I was really excited about

21:05them and where it felt like they might be able to go.

21:09If you're tearing it all down a year and a half later, A, that sucks.

21:13And B, a guy that I feel incredibly good about is coaching the franchise like right up the interstate from you in Jacksonville.

21:19And that sounds really shitty if you're a Buccaneers fan.

21:22I wonder what tearing it down really looks like where so much of the roster is getting younger, like we said.

21:27Tearing it down for me is, okay, new coach.

21:30New coach, new quarterback. You got to hit that.

21:32And then if it's not Baker, and I'm not even trying to say you can't upgrade from Baker Mayfield, but what does that look like?

21:39It'd be hard to do. How hard is it to do?

21:42If you are probably going to win between seven and ten games.

21:46Exactly. And, like, being in that sort of purgatory where you don't know the answers to those questions sounds tough, especially.

21:51And a really big part of it for me is Liam Cohen being in your building and leaving for another Florida franchise,

21:57and he's right there in spitting distance of you coaching another team.

22:01Mine is adjacent to this. I think what's keeping me up and out about the Bucs is just the idea that this

22:07whole thing has run out of road. And I think the offense has been so up and down based on who the play caller has been.

22:14That's a different consideration. But for me, I look at the defense, and this is kind of where I sit with it

22:20as we look at this group, even with some of the additions.

22:23I'm excited about the young front seven pieces, and I'm excited about that group being remade.

22:27And there's a chance that the combination of Josiah Trotter and Ruben Bain and Elijah Kansy coming back just makes this group

22:34feel like it has so much more pop than it did a year ago.

22:37But when you look at the Bucs defenses over the last four years, essentially since Bowles got there, I feel like we don't talk about this enough.

22:45When we get to the end of the year, they're getting barbecued by people consistently in the back half of last season.

22:51And I know part of this is about the pass rush per next gen.

22:55They allowed a 55% success rate when blitzing in the back half of last year, 55%, which was, I think, bottom three in the league.

23:01I don't know exactly where it ranks, but I'll tell you 55% is very bad.

23:06The Bucs have played four playoff games since 2022 when Todd Bowles got the head coaching job.

23:10They've allowed an EPA per drop back better than 0.15 in one of those four games.

23:15It's been 0.15 or worse in three of those four games.

23:180.15, just for context, would be a top five rate in essentially any NFL season.

23:22That's really, really good quarterback play. The one game in the playoffs where the Bucs allowed an EPA per drop back better

23:28than 0.15 was against the Eagles in 2023 when the Eagles were actively imploding.

23:32Yeah. If you look at weighted DVOA and just when the games at the end of the season are weighted heavier than

23:38they are at the beginning of the season, 23rd last year, 23rd in 2024, 14th in 2023, 26th in 2022.

23:43So we're hanging out around the bottom quarter of the league every single year by the time we get to the end of it.

23:50And so even if the talent in the front seven is considerably better than it was, and maybe that's enough, and I'm

23:56open to that, but even if that talent is better, you're still really young on the back end.

24:01You're moving Jacob Parrish outside to a position he's never played before.

24:04And I'm just wondering if this defense's structure and approach gets to a place at the end of every season where people

24:10are like, I could pick on this. I know what this is.

24:13And I think the talent has to do a ton of lifting to make it feel different than that by the end of the year.

24:20And while I'm open to that, it's keeping me up at night that it just might not be enough.

24:25I mean, it's the same issue we sometimes run into.

24:28We ran into this, I think, with the Steelers defenses.

24:31You mentioned that when we were talking about the AFC North.

24:34I think sometimes Dan Quinn's defenses, even when they're really good, can be like this.

24:38I mean, there was, what year was it, 22 or 23 when they were like the best defense in the league and

24:44Jordan Love and the Packers just came in and absolutely shredded them?

24:47Like stuff like that can happen to some of these defenses because I think the hallmark of some of the best defensive

24:53play callers is that by the end of the season, they're tinkering with stuff and throwing stuff that they didn't normally do.

24:59Like Brian Flores last year was running a little bit more man towards the end of the season because I think it

25:05was like, okay, we've got to add something. We have to be a little bit different in that way.

25:11The Houston Texans, when they played the New England Patriots, they ran cover one like that whole game, which is not something that they really do.

25:18Like they were willing to live outside of what they normally do.

25:21And so if we don't see enough of that from Bowles towards the end of the season, I think that would be pretty concerning.

25:28And I think the good thing about how this roster is, the defensive roster especially now is constructed.

25:32I said the last couple of years, I think I could sort of get myself there on living with the fact that

25:39maybe Todd Bowles isn't one of the elite defensive play callers, but that it was a personnel problem.

25:43The linebackers were not good. The defensive pass rush did not have enough.

25:47But now like you've got new and exciting explosive players.

25:50If they can't do it now, I think you get a pretty clear answer on whether or not this regime is going

25:56to be able to get you over the hump or not.

25:59And maybe that's a positive way of looking at it is that we've done enough now where we're going to get a

26:05clear cut answer by the end of this, whatever that answer looks like.

26:08But what's keeping me up at night is that the answer is going to be on the wrong side of the ledger.

26:14Yeah, that's despite what Baker Mayfield thinks, which he said everybody thinks we're going to be terrible.

26:19That's not true. Everybody in the world thinks the Bucs can win this division.

26:23Yeah, everybody in the world thinks the Bucs can win this division.

26:26The hard thing for the Bucs. Can you be terrible and also be the best team in the NFC South is a worthwhile question.

26:33Fair enough. The Bucs won't be terrible. I don't think so either.

26:36But the hard thing is to truly exceed expectations, like for real, what would that take?

26:40Because everybody thinks they can get to the playoffs.

26:43But what would exceeding expectations be for the Bucs?

26:45I want you to get to that. And we'll talk.

26:48I mean, do you want to talk about what success looks like for the Bucs?

26:52Sure, yeah. What is success for the 2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

26:55We're going to do this for all four teams.

26:58Win the South and look like you belong in the postseason.

27:01That's the part of it that's important to me.

27:03Prove that the defense can have some teeth in December and January.

27:07Don't get shish kebabed by whatever offense you happen to play in the wild card round if you do make the playoffs.

27:13And I think if you don't make the playoffs, it's absolutely not a successful season, especially in this division.

27:18I think for me, it's this one is like weirdly specific, but I the NFC, I think is going to be tough.

27:24I think there's going to be a lot of good teams towards the top.

27:28I think you just specifically don't want to be the fourth seed division winner and play.

27:32Let's just say it's the Seahawks or let's just say the Lions are a really good second, like second team coming out of the NFC North.

27:39I think if you have to face the best of the wild card teams, I'm a little bit scared there.

27:45You need to be a good enough team that you are elevating yourself.

27:48I think above that. Before we get to the Panthers, let's take our first quick break.

27:53Let's get to the Carolina Panthers. Our preview for the 2026 Carolina Panthers.

27:56They're offseason in 60 seconds. Gave offensive play calling duties to Brad Edzig.

28:00Brought in Jalen Phillips, Devin Lloyd, Rasheed Walker, Luke Fortner in free agency.

28:03Lost A'shaun Robinson in free agency. Drafted Monroe Freeling in the first round.

28:07Lee Hunter in the second round. Chris Brazel, RIP in the third round.

28:10And cornerback Will Lee. Eric, what are you most excited to watch with the 2026 Carolina Panthers?

28:15There's just a lot of young skill talent on this team.

28:18Like Tedrow McMillan was immediately good as a rookie last year.

28:21You can just say Tedrow McMillan. We're not going to hold that against you.

28:25Listen, that's where I'll say 85% of my excitement is rooted in.

28:28But they do have some other guys. Keep in mind, the Panthers are the team of gigantic people.

28:33Derek loves this team other than the tiny quarterback.

28:36But everybody else is huge. Exactly. Tedrow McMillan is huge.

28:38Jalen Coker, you know, when he was able to play last year, he was good.

28:42They were obviously excited about him coming into the season.

28:45He didn't get to play the full season. Jonathan Brooks, it's, you know, who knows what we'll get from him.

28:51But the fact that this seems like the first time we're going to actually get to see him play, I think, is exciting.

28:57And then I think even some of the other smaller guys that they have, like Mitchell Evans is a totally nice tight end for them.

29:04Like they just have their young core of guys who are catching passes and touching the football is pretty good and exciting,

29:10both in terms of the top line and the guys they have at depth.

29:14The McMillan-Coker pairing. And that's really what this is for me.

29:17And I just think it's a cool, even overall quality.

29:19I think it's a good tandem of one and two receivers.

29:22I think Jalen Coker is like a good NFL receiver.

29:25But I also just like stylistically that you can move them both around.

29:29They're big enough where you can have them play a variety of roles.

29:32They're kind of interchangeable. Coker is a willing and really capable blocker.

29:36If you want to use him on some of the insert stuff, he's a tough, rugged player.

29:40McMillan has had such a great rookie year. Those two guys, I just really like them.

29:45I like them as players. And even if the offensive line is shifting and there's other stuff we could talk about with

29:51the offense, like those two guys being on the field for a majority of the snaps together this year, in a way

29:57they weren't last year, they couldn't use McMillan the way they wanted to last season because Coker wasn't on the field for the first half of the year.

30:04They need Coker to be there for them to move McMillan into the slot and do all the things that they're talking

30:10about because Leggett, while he's big, he can only do so much.

30:14You can't line him up at X because he is not a credible threat on the line of scrimmage in those situations.

30:20He's a vertical player, but he's a vertical player that you have to create separation for.

30:24Coker is the guy that in theory can unlock McMillan in the ways that they want to.

30:29And so a full season of those two guys, that's what I want to watch.

30:33There's, well, I'll get to my Tedoroa McThing later on in the segment, but Tedoroa McThing, I really like.

30:38Did I say Tedoroa McThing? Tedoroa McThing is something we're going to keep going with the entire year.

30:43We're on preview number four, but I can't wait to watch those two guys for sure.

30:47For me, we talked about it earlier in the summer.

30:50It's a defense that I think has the pieces to be surprisingly good.

30:54I think when you talk about overspending and free agency, we talked about it with the commanders the other day.

30:59You spend a shitload of money in free agency.

31:02It's usually because you have irreparable holes on your roster and the price exceeds the production.

31:06I don't really think that's the case with the Panthers this year, which is unusual.

31:10Like Jalen Phillips costs a shitload of money. It's injury that scares you with Jalen Phillips.

31:15The production is there like the production that suggests he's worth that kind of money is there, in my opinion.

31:20They did this for a very specific reason. You look at what they had, what happened in free agency for them over the last couple of years.

31:27They've been trying to shop at the top of the market because I do think in the last couple of free agent

31:33classes, there have been three to five players that are really needle moving pieces.

31:37They didn't go there for Milton Williams. They decided to shop in the discount aisle instead.

31:42Did they not go there or did the Patriots say bigger stacks?

31:45Either one. They did not get Milton Williams. They pursued Milton Williams because they saw him as that tier of player.

31:51They did not get him. I think, and the Panthers are a perfect example of this.

31:55We said this in the moment during free agency.

31:58I think the biggest mistake you can make in free agency is paying A prices for B players.

32:03If you're paying A plus prices for A minus players, I actually think that is acceptable.

32:07And I think that's exactly what the Panthers tried to do this year.

32:10And I think theoretically they did it. I mean, Jalen Phillips is a top 10 player in pressures and pressure rate.

32:16And that was despite changing defenses in the middle of last year.

32:20Incredibly impressive. Devin Lloyd, we've talked about how we think he stacks up.

32:23At the end of the day, the price just isn't that scary.

32:26Like three years, $42 million just doesn't bother me that much for Devin Lloyd.

32:30So you have two really, really good players. There's maybe you would quibble if I say blue chip, but like right there between Derek Brown and Jalen Phillips.

32:38Quality of player that you do not typically find in free agency.

32:41I think I'm comfortable saying that about both of those guys.

32:44There have been a lot of linebackers. Even Derek, I know, has some more reservations about Devin Lloyd as a player than maybe you and I do.

32:52But if you're looking at the linebackers that have hit free agency, that is a position where there are always guys available.

32:58The example for me is the year where it was Jamie and Sherwood and Nick Bolton and all those guys that ended

33:04up going back to their teams, but they were about to hit the market for the most part.

33:09Even this year, Quay Walker and N'Kobe Dean, the linebackers hit free agency.

33:12But I think that when you, the heights we saw from Devin Lloyd last year, I still think that is a slightly different type of player.

33:19If he can repeat that, then the linebackers that you can normally find on the market for between 10 and $15 million.

33:25And to today's point, I do think part of my reservations with Lloyd still are probably too anchored to what I thought

33:31he was going to get paid, not what he actually got paid.

33:35Like what he actually got paid today's point is not that crazy, especially this is a situation where they're not going from

33:41like average linebacker playing or maybe playing a premium to get above that.

33:44This was the worst linebacker group in the league.

33:47It was like Christian Rosen, a big part of this is...

33:50Claude and Cherlis. Like it just wasn't good enough.

33:52Devin Lloyd doesn't have to be second team all pro again for it to be a massive upgrade over what the Panthers had.

33:58And hearing about his influence on the defense so far from a communication and kind of structure perspective was really interesting.

34:04I was talking to somebody on the defensive staff when I was there.

34:08It's been a month since I went there, which is really funny.

34:11It's the first stop that I had. It was July 24th.

34:14And so it's been a long time. But even at that part of the offseason, they compared it to when you have

34:20a quarterback who's a really good creative partner and how you create things where there's a dialogue.

34:25One of the examples they use, and I won't give away the exact situation, but they were talking about a specific formational

34:31adjustment where they were trying to not have the coverage undressed.

34:34And it put them in a call that they felt they weren't really comfortable with, but it was the only answer they

34:40had based on what that formation looked like. And Devin Lloyd was kind of like, why are we doing it this way?

34:46And I think the thought was, well, we just kind of do it this way.

34:50So why do we do it this way? Like, why wouldn't you try to do it?

34:54Let it with a little bit of like a tweak on it.

34:58And so I feel like he's kind of come from the outside and he's the green dot player.

35:03He's like the main communicator for the defense already.

35:05And but I think he's done the pairing of him and the defensive staff.

35:09They've kind of trouble shot some of the things that they were doing before that maybe didn't make the most sense.

35:15And he's been one that's been driving some of that stuff, which is a year one player in the defense, I think is cool.

35:21And beyond the more intangible impact of having a guy like that, the length that he gives you and the other part

35:27of this is my what I'm watching the first month is the defense.

35:31So I had a lot of information, like thoughts about this.

35:34I think this team needs to be a blitzing team to have it all work this year.

35:39Like, I feel like they need to be more aggressive, even with Jalen Phillips in the fold than they were even last year.

35:45And Devin Lloyd is a blitzer to me is the thing that maybe makes the contract worth it and gives you even

35:51another gear that feels different about this group compared to what you had last year.

35:55I think if he doesn't make an impact as a pass rusher on top of everything else, then you're not getting the

36:01bang for the buck you need to from him.

36:03And I don't think you're getting the best version of this defense.

36:07It's if anything, that's the one thing I'm confident he is going to bring is the pass rush stuff.

36:12Like every time he gets sent to a running back, he just completely blows them up.

36:16And so I do think him him being such a big part of their communication to me is like that to me

36:22was going to kind of be like how swings, how good this defense is or not, because he was not necessarily the green dot player in Jacksonville.

36:30You could see like when you're watching film, he's communicating well with like Foyerr and stuff like that, but he was not necessarily calling it.

36:37And so the fact that he is now a little bit more influential in that way in Carolina, I think this comes

36:43back to like, I think sometimes when these linebackers leave a spot where they are not the main linebacker in the room,

36:49it's kind of like you can go one of two ways.

36:52I think you can end up a little bit like how Patrick Queen has been with the Steelers, where it's a little bit more up and down.

36:59It never really feels like he's quite settled. Or I think you can end up in a spot where like when Aziz

37:05Alshair left the San Francisco 49ers, when he was technically the third guy on there, he goes to Tennessee for a year

37:11and it's like, OK, can you do it? Can you be the guy for this defense?

37:16And he immediately was. And then the Texans were like, that's who we want to be in the middle of our defense and being our dot player.

37:23And so I just think how if he ends up closer to that Aziz Alshair can really be the commander in the middle of it.

37:30That makes me feel a lot better that this defense can't actually be an above average unit, which it feels it's above average doesn't feel like crazy praise.

37:37But again, when they were the worst defense, one of the worst defenses I'd ever seen two years ago.

37:43That's unbelievable. I had one more note I wanted to make.

37:46And that's that's part of my point, Derek. They were 32 two years ago.

37:50They jumped up. I think they finished 24th in defensive DVOA last year.

37:53If Phillips and Lloyd are good, another decent jump feels entirely possible.

37:56And one thing we haven't said it. I just want to we're doing a preview.

38:01I think it's worth highlighting. JC Horn and Mike Jackson are a terribly underrated duo of cornerbacks.

38:05The Panthers had they finished 30th in sacks, 31st in pressures and 31st in pressure rate last year.

38:10They were 10 spots better than that across the board in past coverage metrics like they have a really good duo of corners.

38:16And so if you incorporate better pass rush into what's there.

38:19Yeah, top half of the league feels likely as a stretch, but it feels doable to me.

38:24Like, I don't think that's crazy. It feels doable.

38:27I think my question is going to be about the ceiling.

38:30And if you look at it, we've taken this in chunks.

38:33Two years ago, the most embarrassing thing about this team was the run defense.

38:36The run defense was historically bad. They allowed a 50% rushing success rate per next gen.

38:41That's awful. It's like every team you play against is the Rams from last year.

38:45That's what the Panthers running run defense was in 2024.

38:48Last year, they were seventh in run defense success rate.

38:50And that comes with the second highest block box rate in the league after the Eagles.

38:55So they're playing with fewer defenders in the box than blockers at the second highest rate in the league.

39:00And they finished seventh in run defense success rate.

39:02That's really, really good. They have those body types.

39:05That's where you feel Derek Brown. My question and the thing that I this isn't keeping me up at my but it

39:11is the thing that I'm watching is Jalen Phillips enough to take that pass rush from a team that finished 32nd when

39:17rushing for to a unit that feels dangerous because that's about more than individual talent.

39:21And he really is the only guy you're adding back into that.

39:24Turk Wharton is still hurt. Losing Nick scored before the season.

39:27And so even watching them last year, and I'm curious what you think about this, Derek.

39:32There are some teams that even if they don't have the horses pass rush wise, the plan feels dynamic.

39:37It feels like you can pick on people either with pressures, with stunts, with simulateds, whatever.

39:41This was a team that the pass rush plan independent of the talent to me never felt like they were really able

39:47to give teams an edginess with how they attacked them.

39:50I think I need to see more of that in addition to the Jalen Phillips thing for me to feel like this

39:56can be better than like the 17th best defense in the league.

39:59Yeah, I just felt like they were spending a lot of their resources to make sure that they could defend the run,

40:06which based on how bad the year before was and some of the players that he brought in, I think that that makes a lot of sense.

40:13But I do think that the plan has to be more dynamic.

40:16Like Jalen Phillips is a guy that you can kind of use as a spinner a little bit.

40:21You can spike him into guards and do stuff like that with him.

40:25And then like you mentioned, Devin Lloyd, I think some of their backers, they would send them every now and then last year.

40:31But I don't really think of any of them as like truly dynamic blitz pieces, whereas Devin Lloyd is one of the best blitzing linebackers in the NFL.

40:39And he can play on the edge a little bit if they want to do any of that stuff.

40:44So they just have more pop and flexibility in their front than they really did at any point last year.

40:49If this is a team that is actually set up to do some of the Vikings hot coverage stuff, where they were

40:55their man answers on late downs, the cover zero is technically a man coverage, but it's really not right.

41:01It's actually kind of more of a zone coverage.

41:03And so them running a little bit more cover zero stuff and allowing the corners to play with some vision.

41:09Is that a good answer on third down and defined past situations for a team that might struggle to create pressure elsewhere?

41:15Like, I just wonder what the plan looks like and what type of stuff they lean into more in order to give

41:21them that sort of dynamic in those situations, because they have not had it.

41:24I mean, I kind of think with Merrick. Yeah, like I think as a safety, he's actually pretty good at a lot of that stuff.

41:31Like when even when he was coming out of college, he was playing in one of those like quarters based like a downhill sort of systems.

41:38And that's kind of what this hot coverage quarters stuff kind of cover zero stuff turns into.

41:43So and like you mentioned, they have the corners to do it.

41:46Lloyd, you probably want to bring blitzing. So that's interesting because that feels like it would be such a departure from what they have been.

41:53But I do think that if you're a team that is looking for some sort of new edge or advantage, that probably

41:59is something that you should be looking at and studying.

42:02Maybe it's too far. Maybe that's something that's off the table just because it is very far removed.

42:07But I just I wonder if there's something that they need to pull out of their back pocket to give them some more edge in those situations.

42:14And because the other last thing I would say, it does feel like the teams that do that, like they kind of major in it.

42:21You know what I mean? Like the Spags teams at certain points, Flores teams.

42:25What I'll say is the Chargers are a team last year that was a zone heavy team that really did have a

42:31deeper bag in some of those cover zero looks when we got to third down.

42:35Like, are there some of those ideas that you can try to pluck from that actually does feel like it fits into

42:41what you want your overall identity beyond that side of the ball?

42:44Because they do not want to play man, man, man coverage.

42:47But is like a certain amount of cover zero in those situations actually?

42:51Does it actually make sense in conjunction with all the other stuff that you want to do?

42:56That's the one thing that I would think about.

42:58Get wild with it because as we're going to get to, I think defensive improvement, like significant defensive improvement is the most

43:04realistic path forward to the Panthers having a higher ceiling.

43:07So what are you watching the first month of the season?

43:10Having said that, the thing I want to watch is just what exactly, what did I call it?

43:15My Ted Aroa McThing? Yeah, Ted Aroa McThing. What exactly is Ted Aroa McMillan doing in the slot?

43:20What's his snap share? Because the word coming out of camp is that he's going to play more in the slot.

43:26But he did in the preseason. I know. There's nowhere for them to hide anymore.

43:30That could mean, it could mean anything though. When you played 85% of your snaps outside as a rookie, like what is the split exactly?

43:37It's 60-40 outside inside for the preseason. That's 22 snaps.

43:39I don't know. That's a pretty small sample size, but he's in the slot plenty in those two games.

43:45A lot of, a lot of deep digs, a lot of some deep crossers in there.

43:49Like it looks very fun, but how, what, what is their vision exactly for what they want to do with him?

43:55I just want to see. We talked about the T-Max slot stuff.

43:58The other thing we did not mention with the defense is, it sounds like we're going to have CJC Horn in there

44:04significantly more than we ever have before. And I think part of the reason for that is if you're a zone heavy

44:10team, it's almost as it's the same thought process of putting your best receiver in the slot, where if you put him

44:16in the slot, it's harder for the defense to take him away.

44:19And I feel like that's the thought process about why they want Horn in there more often.

44:24Because if you're going to be zone heavy, teams can just ignore him.

44:28If he's on one side of the field, if you're putting him in the slot on third and seven, he is just

44:34more capable of making an impact on the game.

44:36And so I think we're going to see that.

44:39And that's partially because of how much they've liked what they've seen from Willie.

44:42Interesting. That's what I was going to ask. Like, who is the other guy?

44:46Willie? He's the guy who would be out there.

44:49Fun player. I remember in that first, the first preseason game, he like, he had a great play on like a slant.

44:55And then like on a couple of plays later, the next drive, he just bites on a double move and gets burned down the field.

45:02And it's like, there's going to be a little bit of that with him.

45:05He's got some of that, like, I'm going to be aggressive and put some hands on you sort of player.

45:11But that's really encouraging to hear that, that he, they already feel like they can put him on the field in service

45:17of getting their best player where they want him.

45:19That was early in camp. But I do feel like that is still the vision.

45:23I think we will see Horn in the slot more often than we ever have before.

45:28That's extremely fun as the draft guy. Like, I don't, I don't want to be on here hyping up fourth round picks and expecting big things from them.

45:36But if you can get something out of him in that A&M team was so loaded with draft picks, he's I don't,

45:42I don't doubt that he could play a role early.

45:44All right, let's get to it. Derek, what is keeping you up at night about the 2026 Carolina Panthers?

45:50I just worry that because of the current quarterback play, you're going to waste a year of an expensive roster with no

45:56avenue towards whoever the next quarterback is going to be.

45:58And they have some ways that they can get out of this expensive roster.

46:02Like, you can get out of the Wharton contract next year.

46:05Same thing with Robert Hunt. That'll clear up, like, somewhere around $30 million.

46:09But in the world where they need to... And they drafted, I think they drafted Lee Hunter in part.

46:14So they would have, like, a cheap off-ramp if they needed to move on from the expensive interior pieces.

46:19Right. Even in that world, like, some of that money, half of that money at least, is probably going to have to

46:25be towards whatever new quarterback you're about to give some money to unless they can find some way to maneuver in the draft and go get a guy.

46:33And so it just feels like they've built up this very expensive roster to be, like, a nine-win division winner of the NFC South.

46:39And if they can't even accomplish that, you start to, like, spiral about what this team building has really started to look like.

46:46So he's already shut the door on Bryce Young.

46:48Is your door shut on Bryce Young? My door's not shut, but I'm starting to feel like Tom Hanks at the end

46:54of Saving Private Ryan, where he's just shooting his pistol at the Tiger tank coming across the bridge.

46:59But who's my air cav in this analogy? Like, who's going to show up and bomb the tank for me?

47:05I'm not optimistic. I'm not closing the door. But here's the thing.

47:08I want to be excited about Bryce Young. I want to believe in a good version of the Panthers because it's more interesting.

47:14But what I don't want to do, and actually, incredible.

47:17I forgot. They play the Bears to open the season, which, no offense, that's not the most terrifying defense in the NFL to start this season.

47:24I don't want to say that. I don't want to be in here at midnight on Sunday of week one or week

47:30three because they play the Browns week three. I don't want to be in here at midnight talking about Bryce Young like a lost dog.

47:37Just like, ah, I don't know. I don't know what happened.

47:40Again, PCA ad with the background playing while we're trying to have a conversation about Bryce Young for the 12th time.

47:46I don't want to do it anymore, and if I'm being honest, that's kind of what I expect to happen.

47:51I'm holding out hope that that's not true, but the numbers are what they are, and at no point in his career

47:57so far has Bryce Young been better than the 25th best quarterback in the NFL.

48:01The Panthers tied the Browns for 28th with 63 explosive pass plays last year.

48:05Over the course of Bryce's career, only the Jets have fewer explosive pass plays than the Carolina Panthers.

48:10You can dig into the websites and find a damning stat for any category you want to go into.

48:15Maybe this is the year Bryce puts it all together.

48:18The talent you hope is upgraded, and maybe the defense can help you out, but I just have this sneaking suspicion that

48:24I'm going to be sitting at this desk at a loss for words multiple times over the course of the season.

48:30My hope is also dwindling. Like, it's hard for it not to be after last year.

48:34It was fun to kind of attach yourself to the second half of that 24th season and think, maybe.

48:39Maybe there is a path forward here. I really enjoyed watching him play during that stretch.

48:44I was very impressed with his ability to come back from what the last season and a half had looked like.

48:50But then you watched it last year, and I think it's harder to hold on to that.

48:54Last season, per NextGen, the quarterbacks were the worst success rate than Bryce Young.

48:58Geno Smith, J.J. McCarthy, Jackson Dart, Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Cam Ward, Shadur Sanders.

49:03It's the only ones. As a team, even with Coker and T-Mac on the field together, the Panthers finished 28th in passing success rate.

49:10The numbers are tough. And if you're trying to build a case, I will do this.

49:14If you get Coker and T-Mac together the entire season, that's a starting point to this.

49:18Losing Brazel sucks because I do think, like we were talking about with Leggett, where Leggett can give you some verticality.

49:24Brazel, they felt, was a guy that they could stick on the line of scrimmage and give you that verticality to the offense.

49:30That's just not something they feel like they can get with Leggett.

49:34So you're already kind of removing one of the things that they thought could make the offense feel a little bit different.

49:40But let's just play out the world where the receivers are significantly better because you get Coker and T-Mac the entire season.

49:46The offensive line is not as good as you want it to be coming into the year, right?

49:51The fact that Moten is going to miss an indeterminate amount of time.

49:54Rasheed Walker, we thought he'd get paid more than $4 million in free agency.

49:58He didn't. We should probably take that as a little bit of a signal.

50:02And he did not look great in the preseason in like this short little glimpse that we saw from him.

50:07And so I'm kind of hoping we get Moten back sooner rather than later.

50:11And then you get to a place where you can move Monroe Freeling over to left tackle if you feel a little

50:17bit uneasy about what Walker's going to give you.

50:20If that's the case and the guards are healthy, I do think the offensive line can be a good group.

50:25Not great, but a good group. So the personnel has a chance to be mentioning Jonathan Brooks too.

50:30This is a team that had no yak players whatsoever last year.

50:33Like having somebody you can just spit the ball out to.

50:36There is a chance that the personnel is better than it's ever been since Bryce Young got here.

50:41And I do think there's some schematic things where if I'm trying to really hold on to something, there are elements that

50:47look good last year where it's like, okay, if you leaned a little bit more into this, what could you be as an offense?

50:54They have not been explosive because they haven't pushed the ball downfield.

50:57And I do think they, I think Bryce Young wants to push the ball downfield a little bit more.

51:03And I feel like Idzik coming in, is that something where do they take the limiter off of what they're asking of

51:09Bryce Young a little bit more than they did under Canals?

51:12That's one pillar of this. And the other part is, I do think that there are elements of what they do when

51:18Bryce is in there that actually look pretty good.

51:20This team was seventh in success rate off play action last year.

51:23And the stat that really jumped out to me that absolutely matches the eye test last season per next gen, the Panthers

51:29had the highest success rate on dropbacks in the league on plays where they used motion at the snap.

51:35It was 56% of place. And you do feel that like when they're using Jimmy Horn as kind of a move piece.

51:41And like Derek was saying about the Falcons, when Horn's on some of those jets and that puts McMillan at the number

51:47two before the snap, and you can use him on some of those intermediate routes, and that gives you a chance to

51:53attack the 10 to 15 yard area quickly. I do think Bryce Young is good at some of that stuff.

51:58And so if there's a little bit more play action, if there's a little bit more motion, if you're leaning into those

52:04sorts of things, that's a version of the offense that I think can get you to more explosives than you've enjoyed before.

52:10This is a very, very, very thin path. And you're stacking up a lot of contingencies.

52:15But I do think that is the argument you would make if you were a Panthers fan about why this could potentially

52:21look better than it ever has with Bryce Young.

52:23Define better. Can you be the 18th best passing team in the league?

52:27And can you be like 16th? Can you be average?

52:29I think that's better. Average is what I'm gunning for.

52:32Like if I'm looking for optimism, I think that is a realistic possibility.

52:36And I think that what you just laid out is actually why I can see the passing offense being better and me

52:42not necessarily feeling any better about Bryce Young being the quarterback moving forward.

52:45Because the two things that you just mentioned, play action, I think in the world we live in where teams are doing so much changing their coverage.

52:53If you're just like play action, turning your back, there's a little bit of like you're not really having to look and see as much.

53:00You're kind of just going to throw that deep over out or you're going to throw the glance out, whatever it's going to be.

53:06So it's stuff that obviously every offense needs a little bit of that.

53:10You want your quarterback to take some plays off.

53:12But if those are two things where it's taking the burden purely off of the quarterback and you're kind of just throwing

53:18these balls to these skyscrapers, unless it looks like a top 10 offense, I don't know if that's really going to move

53:24the needle for me that much on whether or not Bryce is going to be the long-term starter or not.

53:30I think that's fair. The fact that we have to be pulling all these levers to get you to a place where

53:36you can have an above average passing offense, I think speaks to some of the concerns about the quarterback specifically.

53:41All right, Dave. What does success look like for the 2026 Carolina Panthers?

53:45Like I said, for all four teams, win the division.

53:48It's there for you. It is realistic to think you can repeat as division champions.

53:52Even the Falcons, you're putting that on them, huh?

53:54There's a world where that's possible. Absolutely. We'll get there.

53:57All right. But I will say, I don't think you can consider this a successful season in Carolina unless Bryce shows a redeeming amount of progress.

54:04I said QB 16. So we're aligned like 16.

54:0618 would probably be fine after the three years we've had.

54:09Although I don't know if that is fine when you're talking about the big picture where you have to decide if he's

54:15worth extending and what that price looks like. But it's almost worse if he's quarterback 18.

54:20And then you find yourself hemming and hawing in January about what you want to do with this.

54:25Because like if we, let's just say we live out the same thing.

54:28And maybe the Panthers win the division at 9 and 8 or 10 and 7 this year.

54:33But it's basically the same thing. And Bryce is like worse than 20.

54:37And they get bounced in the wild card round.

54:39What are we doing? Like are we trying to patch things up with Baker Mayfield?

54:43Are you going after Mac Young? Or like... Mac Jones.

54:46Mac Jones? I'm all over the place. It's been a busy week.

54:49It has been. It's been a long week. Is it like...

54:52Are we doing a reclamation project in Carolina? Like what is it...

54:56Be really funny if they went after Anthony Richardson and just got the exact opposite of Bryce Young.

55:00The other guy in that song over there. But like you're in that world if Bryce doesn't substantially improve this year.

55:06No matter what they... Where they go. If Bryce improving is not part of it.

55:10Then I don't think you'll feel good about this season.

55:13This wasn't my original answer. But based on what you just said, I think this is where I'm going to land.

55:19Are you a quarterback reclamation project away from being a serious team next year?

55:23Including Bryce Young. Sure. As one of those reclamation projects.

55:25Right? Where it's like... Are we the guy that once seemed like there's no way he could be the answer for a championship caliber team?

55:32But now is. Away from being really competitive in the NFC next year.

55:36And that could include Bryce Young. Where this year he's like the 18th best quarterback.

55:40We think a year from now he can be a Sam Darnold level player that gets us to a place where with

55:46the offense and defense around him are good enough.

55:48We can be competitive. That to me is the best case scenario.

55:52That is success. That feels remote. But if you don't land in that.

55:55But it doesn't even have to be Bryce Young.

55:58It can be like whoever that next guy happens to be.

56:01And so for Bryce I think it's a remote chance.

56:03For everything else I think it's within the realm of possibility.

56:07And I think that is what I would deem success for the Panthers this year.

56:11That's probably where I would land too. Like even if the record is the same.

56:15Even if they're an 8 and 9 team again.

56:17But like because honestly even them. I don't know if we've really brought this up.

56:21Them even getting to 8 and 9 last year was a little bit of luck.

56:25Like they were there was a lot of close games that they were kind of able to squeak out.

56:31They were really not that good. They were the most inconsistent team I've ever watched.

56:35They literally it was like I don't remember if we actually finished the season this way.

56:39But I think they were literally like lose win lose win lose win for like the entire season.

56:44And then like losing like losing to some horrible teams giving the Rams their like the game that they gave them.

56:50Like they were just all over the board. And so they beat the Rams.

56:54Yes they beat and then almost did it again in the playoffs.

56:57Like the fact that they had those highs. Exactly the fact that they had those highs.

57:01And then like I think they got swept by the Saints.

57:04Which just like I just don't know where you really went.

57:07They were the true they were truly the most like any given Sunday team.

57:11So I think they still have a long way to go to actually be a team.

57:16That you really do feel good about being if we just get a reclamation quarterback in here.

57:20But I do think it's feasible. And whether it's Bryce Young.

57:23Whether it's any of the guys that we mentioned.

57:26I do think that that's on the table. And to me it really doesn't matter what the end result is about winning

57:32the division or winning the playoff game. You just you should feel like 2027 is really going to matter if they can fix one thing.

57:39All right before we get to our Saints preview.

57:41Let's take our second quick break. Let's get to the New Orleans Saints.

57:45Our preview for the 2026 New Orleans Saints. They're off season in 60 seconds.

57:48Signed David Edwards, Travis Etienne and Caden Ellis. Travis Etienne excuse me.

57:52And Caden Ellis in free agency. Also brought in Noah Fant.

57:55LaCelante Taylor and Demario Davis in free agency. Drafted Jordan Tyson, Kristen Miller, Oscar Delp in the first three rounds.

58:00Dave what are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 New Orleans Saints?

58:05My enthusiasm is slightly dampened by the Jordan Tyson situation.

58:07Hard not to have it. It's really bringing you down.

58:10But even still it's year two of Tyler Shuck.

58:13And the Saints have done a remarkable job of improving the supporting cast around him.

58:17Getting A-chan in there at the price that they did.

58:19Again for spending in free agency. $48 million over four years is just not a crazy price to pay for a good running back.

58:26I don't know if Travis A-chan is going to like change the game for the New Orleans Saints.

58:31But it is much better than what they've had.

58:33I see that look on your face. You look at some of the numbers from last year.

58:38Per NextGen, Camaro was the only running back in the league with 100 plus carries to finish below 30% of his runs over expectation.

58:45It was bad. This was a really, really bad running team last year.

58:48His numbers were bad. And then anytime any of the backups came in, like Devin Neal comes off the bench and he's

58:54not even like that great of a player. He's kind of just a grinder.

58:58And he's clearly outperforming him, I thought. And so the fact that they bring in somebody who's got a little bit more

59:04pop with an offensive line that like, I mean, that's kind of what I'm excited about.

59:09There's a chance that this offensive line is just like really, really good.

59:12Like Fuaga, I think, could take another step. You bring in David Edwards, who is a really, really good guard.

59:18Eric McCoy, when he's healthy, is one of the best at his position in the league.

59:22Like, and Kelvin Banks, like, I know I came into the league really hot on him, but he had a phenomenal rookie season.

59:28And I think that there's a chance that maybe not this year, but two or three years down the line, he's like

59:34a top seven left tackle in the NFL. Like, I truly think he's got that in him.

59:39And so if they've got this unit and a lot of they can stay healthy and Chuck takes a step and HN is really good.

59:46It's like, OK, man, you could really get excited about like this is the unit that can actually get you to winning the division.

59:52I'll shout out our friend Brandon Thorne one more time because he did such a good job with these offensive line rank.

59:58I mean, the guy, the man is an absolute sicko.

60:01I love him to death. But Talia Sufuaga, Brandon has him ranked 20th among 32 right tackles heading into year three.

60:07Kelvin Banks comes in at 18th out of 40 left tackles after one season.

60:11And similar to what we said about Jalen Phillips, you paid a premium for David Edwards.

60:15But if he is a top 10 guard, according to people who know their shit and was such a big piece of

60:21the Bills offensive line, McCoy top five center when healthy, which please God.

60:25That's a conversation we'll have. It's been a couple of years.

60:28And even Cesar Ruiz, who probably gets the least amount of pub among this offensive line, ninth best right guard among 34 ranked.

60:34Like the potential is here for this to be a kick ass unit.

60:38And to that point, Travis HN doesn't have to be the best back in the NFL if the offensive line hits the way you want it to.

60:45I did. I sorry. I had one more thing I just thought was really fun because I like I don't think about you watch Tyler Shuck.

60:52And in the context of nine games over the second half of his rookie season, and what did it really look like?

60:58And the numbers are fine, but not jaw dropping among the nine.

61:01I went back and looked at nine nine quarterbacks drafted since Trevor Lawrence in 2021, like Caleb and Jaden and Drake and Bryce Young and CJ Stroud.

61:09Tyler Shuck had a worse running game than all of those guys as a rookie, except for Drake May and 24 and

61:15Bryce Young and 23 in terms of like EPA per play and success rate for him to play middle of the pack over nine weeks with nothing.

61:22Happening in the running game. I know people are excited about Shuck, but like I feel like that goes underrated that he

61:28had to do a lot of that without a lot of help.

61:32They were 14th in EPA per drop back in the back half of the season with no running game whatsoever.

61:37And Chris Olave played phenomenal in the back half of last year.

61:40Who are the other receiving options for the Saints during that time?

61:44It's Devon Vele, Mason Tipton. It's so funny that they did the Devon Vele trade in August and we made fun of them for it.

61:50And then they forgot about him until him and Tyler Shuck were just making beautiful music for they needed it.

61:56They traded Rashid Shaheen. It's like who else is going to catch passes on this team?

62:00They needed it. And like Tyler Shuck will throw over the middle of the field and make those throws, which is like

62:06that's what you want to Devon Vele doing. He's like a big slot type receiver.

62:11And I also think like honestly, most boring player who I think is actually like can be pretty productive and pretty good.

62:17And the fact that he might be the fourth best pass catcher on this team is nice.

62:21Juwan Johnson is a totally nice tight end to have.

62:24Like he's totally solid. And they really do kind of use him as like a vertical piece.

62:29And so you can start to like I do think that that's the thing.

62:32And maybe this is stepping on the next segment.

62:35If they can be a little bit more vertical and start to hit on some of those routes, it's like, OK, this

62:41offense is kind of starting to unlock all the things that you want.

62:44I am bummed out about the Tyson thing because I think where I sit with Tyler Shuck is I think this is

62:51not even an insulting place to land. I don't know what the ceiling for Tyler Shuck is.

62:55He's able to make plays with his legs, but just we talked about this in the second year quarterback show, Derek.

63:01When he gets sped up and he's got to make off platform sorts of throws like little tiny movements in the pocket,

63:07that's where the inaccuracy really creeps in. And so I wonder what sort of pocket playmaking quarterback he's ever going to be when he has to run.

63:14He has that sort of like straight line speed and explosiveness, but he's not exactly a twitchy player in the pocket.

63:20And so I wonder what the ceiling for him is as a player.

63:24But I think what he showed floor wise already is really encouraging.

63:27I feel like I think this is how some people view him in that building as well.

63:32He's a winning quarterback. If we put the right stuff around him, this can be a winning quarterback.

63:37And I think you can start to build a case for how this offseason, if the running game is going to get

63:43better and we get Tyson back at some point, we've put the right things around him.

63:47If this running game can go from bottom three to middle of the pack.

63:51If you can get Jordan Tyson in there midway through the season to pair with Chris Olave, the offensive line is already good.

63:57And the other part of this that I think when you think about the supporting cast overall, I really liked what Kellen Moore did last year.

64:04I really liked watching this offense. I think they did a lot of really good stuff.

64:09And so if we get to a place where so many of those, the prongs of that plan feel like they're in

64:15place around a quarterback that I think absolutely clears the bar.

64:18What can this thing look like in year two?

64:20That's what I'm excited to see. There's so much reason for optimism.

64:23I wish Tyson was available. I'd be I'd be talking really recklessly if Jordan Tyson was healthy right now.

64:29Derek, what are you watching the first month of the season with the New Orleans Saints?

64:33I'm watching the defense. You know, we've mentioned it a number of times this offseason.

64:37Towards the back half of the year, the Saints defense was really good.

64:41They were like third in EPA per play. Yes.

64:43Back half of the season. They were third. And like, and same in success rate.

64:47Like they were a really, really good defense down the stretch.

64:50And, you know, I think sometimes that can be the case, right?

64:54When you get a you bring in a new play caller and it takes them, you know, half the year to really get going.

65:00And I think that you really saw Brandon Staley's defense start to come into its own.

65:05At the same time, I think that this is often a style of defense that is really dependent on what the spine of the defense looks like.

65:12Like you now lose to Mario Davis, who is like really the heart and soul of this defense through multiple iterations, whether

65:18it was with Staley or beforehand with Dennis Allen.

65:20And you lose Alante Taylor, who I think was a pretty good nickel player for them.

65:25So these players that were really in the middle of your defense and allowing you to do certain things, they're just going to get different bodies there.

65:32And that's where I think it it's hard to pace on what they did last year to what it might be, because

65:38now you have Jonas Sanker potentially playing the nickel.

65:41It sounds like he's going to be the nickel for them.

65:44I think just a different player. I think. Yeah.

65:46And he's just a different player to me from Alante Taylor.

65:49And so I wonder how that's going to look, because when I watched him last year, like what he did as like

65:55a center fielder sometimes I thought was really impressive.

65:58So him now being nickel, like, OK, what's that going to look like?

66:01And he hasn't really played in like they haven't really played any of their starters in the preseason.

66:06So we haven't really gotten to look at what that even looks like.

66:10And then to Mario Davis, they swap him out for Caden Ellis.

66:13And Caden Ellis is a lot more of like a he's blitzing.

66:16He's really bringing the heat. You can put him on the edge.

66:20You can do all this funky stuff with him.

66:22Whereas the Mario Davis was really more of like kind of the heart of your coverage unit.

66:27And so do they do more blitzing? Because that's just what he's going to be better at.

66:31And so I just wonder what the construction of the like, is it going to change or are they going to try

66:37to do some of the same stuff? I think we'll see them bring more pressure in part because I think they're good at it.

66:44They were a really good pressure team last year when they decided to do that.

66:48And when you look at this group overall, if you're trying to figure out, I actually regret not doing this as one of the lingering questions.

66:55Like how did the Saints defense finish third in EPA replay in the back half of the year?

67:00And so let's go through a mini lingering questions about how the Saints did this last year.

67:05It starts with the run defense first and foremost.

67:07That is like that is the starting point for how you get to be a shockingly good defense considering your personnel.

67:13Last year, they second in the NFL over the second half of the season in light box rate.

67:18They were sixth in blocked box rate. So again, the number of blockers compared to the number of defenders that you have makes total sense, right?

67:25I mean, this is Brandon Staley, Fangio. Like that's how they want to play.

67:29They were top three in both EPA per rush and success rate during that during the back half of the year while playing in those boxes.

67:36They were the only team in the NFL that was top three in EPA per carry and success rate, period, let alone considering how they want to play.

67:44And this does actually make sense. When you look at the way that their front is built, there aren't a lot of race cars.

67:50There are a lot of big ass dudes. They love drafting big ass football.

67:54They have big men in that group. Even Chase Young was 265.

67:58So that's that front is built for them to hold up against the run, which I actually whether they stumbled into this

68:04or he stumbled into this because it's guys they already had.

68:07I think Brandon Staley has learned his lesson, right?

68:09Well, they drafted another one this year. Having Kristen Miller come in, I love Kristen Miller in the draft.

68:14He's exactly the type of player that this team wants.

68:17And so if we're going to be in, we're going to force teams to be in.

68:21During that stretch, they allowed 4.4 yards per play on first down.

68:25The only teams in the league that were better were the Texans and the Broncos.

68:29So if we're going to be in a lot of these second and sevens and second and eights, and we can be

68:35a team that really does have a cool pressure plan.

68:38That's how you build this sort of team. And I think that's what they've done.

68:42And so I do think that there is a chance that they can be that sort of run defense again.

68:47You have a guy like Caden Ellis. Can you be this team on third and eight where we really like what we can unleash against you?

68:54And I think the other part of this and the thing that I'm really curious about watching, Chase Young was phenomenal.

69:00Chase Young was incredible. He's so good again. In the second half of the season.

69:04He is quietly so damn good. He was fifth in pressure rate in the second half of last year per NextGen.

69:10He led the end. He had seven sacks from week 10 and on.

69:13He was hurt for a good chunk of the first half of the season.

69:17And talking to people there, I do think they see like another gear for him where we get a season from Chase

69:23Young if he's healthy throughout this whole year where it makes us talk differently about Chase Young.

69:28Like a narrative changing season for Chase Young who is 27 years old.

69:32I mean, we 27 still. I'm glad we're doing this because we should be talking more about Chase Young as a football community anyway.

69:38I think it's just easy. And for that matter, this is how I feel.

69:42I just I don't care that much about the Saints defense because the questions on offense are so important.

69:47And they're exciting and they're exciting. But the players aren't exciting.

69:50Like the idea of we have capable corners include McKinstry and Quincy Riley is not an exciting conversation.

69:55The way that Jordan Tyson is. Chase Young is exciting.

69:58Agreed. Okay. Having said that, this is my favorite thing to say to my wife.

70:02Can I be mean? Can I be mean for like 10 seconds?

70:05I hate to be this guy. The Saints schedule post playing the Rams.

70:09I had the quarterbacks. I was ready for this discussion.

70:12It's not good. And I just it's not to discount everything they did.

70:15But I think that is a very useful piece of it's important context.

70:19Falcons twice. Jets, Dolphins, Titans, Panthers over this stretch that we're talking about.

70:22It's you have to mention it. And whether they're as good as the numbers indicate.

70:26I think that's up for discussion. They're probably not.

70:29But at least if you're going to have that stretch, you want to look dominant.

70:33It's almost like what we're kind of saying about the Patriots overall last year.

70:37It's like if you're going to have this schedule, you should at least be beating the shit out of most of the people you're playing.

70:44And at least they were for the most part doing that defensively.

70:47Before we move on, I just wanted to put one like final note on the pass rush thing with Caden Ellis.

70:53Caden Ellis rushed the passer 170 times last year.

70:55And if you look at like NFL Pro, you can actually kind of do it by alignment, like by edge, by off

71:01ball linebacker, by quote defensive tackle, which basically for a linebacker just means he's mugged up.

71:06It's a pretty even split across the board for Ellis.

71:08Like he really can do everything for them. Demario Davis only had 70 pass rush snaps and like 50 of them were him just mugged up.

71:15So it was just like a very it was a very specific way that they were using him, whereas Ellis really is kind of this unicorn.

71:23So hopefully that does unlock something a little bit for this defense.

71:26Because I do think even if you think Chase Young can be the centerpiece of your pass rush, there are a lot

71:32of other guys on this defensive line that have a lot of oomph to them.

71:36There just aren't. And so if you want to use Caden Ellis as a blitzer to kind of account for some of

71:42that, I actually do think that's it. It's a fun little what do we need to do next edition?

71:47Because it doesn't necessarily completely align with what their identity was last year.

71:51But I do think it's a path to a different gear and a different approach the year after.

71:56And I like that. I like when teams do that, where it's we're making an addition that speaks to evolution.

72:01And I think that's what the Caden Ellis addition does for this team.

72:05What are you watching the first month of the season if Derek and I are fixated on the defense?

72:10I'll just be a meme of myself. But it's a big deal quietly because Jordan Tyson, minimum, we're thinking week six probably.

72:16Yeah, minimum. And all of a sudden, who is benefiting from that absence in the roster?

72:20Olave, obviously. Thank God they did trade for Devon Vele.

72:23But this team ran 11 personnel 67% of the time last year.

72:26And there's no clear-cut option on the roster right now.

72:29Maybe I should probably take that as a cue that they might do something, which they had Chase Claypool in for a workout.

72:35They had Josh Reynolds in for a workout. But there's not a definite option to do that.

72:40You don't believe in Bryce Lance? If I'm going to believe in anybody, it's going to be my guy, Barry and Brown,

72:46who had some splash moments in camp from what I've seen.

72:49But, yeah, I mean, Bryce Lance, fourth-round pick, 6'3", runs of 4'3".

72:52That's very intriguing. But the word on him coming out of college is he's just raw.

72:57Like, running straight very fast is basically what you're drafting him for at this point.

73:01Lots of common theme with the North Dakota State guys that have come into the NFL.

73:05Barry and Brown is also a speed guy. He's a return guy at LSU.

73:09Like, I don't know how realistic it is to think he's going to step in and be a guy from day one.

73:15And Jalen Polk retired? I know, like, I don't know what your expectations were for Jalen Polk.

73:20It did not go his way. He retired. But I'm sure that was a blow for the Saints, considering that you had

73:26to be worried about Jordan Tyson's durability anyway. So, like I said, yeah, I'll say it again.

73:31There is not a clear-cut option to be the third receiver on the field for this team right now.

73:36My thought would be, and I don't know enough about this.

73:39I probably should know more about it. If Lance is that third guy, ends up becoming that third guy, and what you're

73:45asking of him is very streamlined, and he's just a vertical piece for you, Olave can do everything else.

73:50Yeah. I think it just reframes the Olave role, and then obviously Devon Vele as a big slot middle of the field option.

73:56That trio, stylistically, if Lance is viable early, I do actually think makes sense together.

74:00Lance and the cool thing, like Lance and Barry and Brown both have very exciting skill sets.

74:05Means they are the exact type of players that stand out in training camp.

74:09And you can go pull up clips of both of them doing cool shit at practice.

74:13I don't know what that means when you actually get to the season, and whether or not the Saints do something here

74:19between now and week one is going to answer that question.

74:22Because this seems like the type of situation where, even if it's not one of the guys they worked out, if you

74:28just want to go find a guy off the street, or if you're scared enough that you do a minor trade for it, I don't know.

74:36It's something to watch. I just hope we get Jordan Tyson back soon rather than later.

74:40You and me both. That's where I sit with it.

74:43Jordan Tyson is, we've talked about this a million times, but just worth putting a point on it.

74:48Somebody that in the drafts, I had questions about even beyond the health stuff.

74:51What is he in the NFL? What is he if he's the best receiver on your team, if he's your number one receiver?

74:58Just because, again, as a vertical player, just wasn't what he was bringing to the table for the most part at Arizona.

75:04The change of direction and just slashing ability is unbelievable.

75:06The route running, you see it. You understand why he is so dangerous and why teams liked him so much.

75:12But I felt like where he was going to land and the other receivers in the room were probably going to dictate

75:18how I felt about some of this. And when the Saints picked him, it was immediately, immediately I see the pairing of him and Chris Olave.

75:25And I'm just like, yep, that's it. Like that is the guy where if you're going to pair him with a truer

75:31number one receiver, what sort of skill set do you want?

75:34Chris Olave was exactly the answer. And the fact that it's been taken away from me, I'm having my Kevin Garnett.

75:40But why would you show it to me if I can't have it?

75:43That's how I feel right now about the Jordan Tyson Chris Olave pairing.

75:47I'll just get this out of the way because we have other things we can talk about and what's keeping you awake.

75:53I'm not I'm not walking off the ledge right now.

75:56Like I'm I'm holding out. But I loved Jordan Tyson as a prospect.

75:59I thought he was the best receiver in this class.

76:02Because I it's it's so scary that not only is he hurt, but it's a hamstring.

76:07It's a soft tissue thing. It sounded like a fluke thing.

76:10OK, it sounded like a what does that mean?

76:12I still get scared if you have a history, you know, I don't know.

76:16All I'm saying they're talking themselves into the fact that it's a fluke thing.

76:20You have to guy. I mean, you don't have a choice.

76:23You draft you draft this guy for years. And I get that.

76:26And plenty of guys like Odell Beckham had a hammy at in his rookie training camp.

76:30Like you can get past this stuff. But I'm going to be banging my head against the table through the first six weeks of the season.

76:37If Reuben Bain or Caleb Downs or Casey Concepcion or Makai Lemon, like if these guys are popping and having fun and I'm I'm Squidward watching SpongeBob.

76:45Oh, you can't do that way, though. This is a five year choice.

76:48I know. And that's I'm not I don't have a definitive.

76:51Opinion right now. But it just makes me nervous that we didn't even get a week into his career before it has cropped up.

76:58That part that part is worrying when you consider his history and the fact that we're going to miss at least the

77:04first six games before we've even seen him for a single snap in the league.

77:08We're not absolutely concerned. We are not selling our stock.

77:11We are just wondering what the future holds. Well, what's keeping us up at night?

77:15I mean, this is part of it. Yeah, it is.

77:18This is a team where you're looking at the best case scenario, and it's so tempting to envision and talk about the best case scenario.

77:25We spent 10 minutes at the beginning discussing the improvements in the supporting cast and the infrastructure around Tyler Shuck.

77:30What if that just never happens? But what if we never get that version of the offense?

77:35No, Tyson. Eric McCoy's played 14 games combined in the last two seasons.

77:38So the idea of, oh, man, Eric McCoy. Eric McCoy is healthy.

77:42Well, he hasn't been healthy. I was excited about Eric McCoy coming back last year, and he played the same number of games.

77:48Seven. Seven games each of the last two years.

77:50And I don't want to face this reality because I loved watching him healthy last year.

77:55Chris Olave has not had a clean bill of health very often throughout his career.

77:59And so are we going to be at a place where we're looking at this offense in week 12 and there are four or five important pieces missing?

78:07You could play this game for every single team.

78:09The idea of injuries are keeping me up at night.

78:12I think it's a little bit more fitting to have that conversation about this team considering the point they're starting from.

78:18The reality is that's just more real with some teams than not.

78:21And sometimes it doesn't matter. We did this with the Rams last year, and then they were one of the handful of

78:27teams that could have won the Super Bowl. And obviously the Saints ceiling isn't that high, but there's a chance maybe none of this goes well.

78:34But I'm in the same boat like Olave, you just don't know.

78:37Tyson, regardless of even when he comes back, what does he look like when he comes back?

78:42Does he even look like the first-round player that you would have wanted?

78:45McCoy, again, we don't know, especially after multiple years.

78:48And then I think we forget, part of the reason I think Tyler Shuck probably fell and even was what he was

78:54as a draft prospect was he was never healthy in college outside of the last year that he played.

78:59And so there's a chance that he gets banged up again.

79:02And so you have this what could be a really exciting offense that it just feels a little bit like a house of cards, unfortunately.

79:09I don't want to be sitting here in November saying, ah, we just have we even seen Shuck's full capability because it just fell apart.

79:16Yeah. And I do think that the improvement in the run game is enough to make the overall offense feel considerably different

79:22than it was a year ago, even if you remove the Tyson part from this.

79:26I think the foundation of it is built on something that's sturdier than it was last season.

79:31But I still feel like what we spent all spring thinking about, all summer thinking about with those two guys within the

79:37same offense, the fact that that starting point is that being removed and we have some of the other players that have injury concerns.

79:43I think that's where your mind has to go.

79:46All right. What does success look like, Derek, for the 2026 New Orleans Saints?

79:50I mean, not to steal Dave's bit, but I think you should probably feel like you can go win the division.

79:55And then I think for them, it would be more specific to like, you feel good about Tyler Shuck moving forward.

80:01Not like, you know, we'll play this out one more year, see if things really feel good.

80:06Like, no, you feel good that he is at minimum a top 20 quarterback and still has some potential to kind of rise even higher than that.

80:13So I think those to me, that's kind of like that is success for the New Orleans Saints.

80:18Chuck looks like the real deal and you win the division.

80:21Yeah, I think that's probably enough. I think I land in a similar spot.

80:25I'm not sure it has to be more than that.

80:28And also my, this was the team where there was nothing really keeping me up at night.

80:32Let's just say you're a little bit banged up offensively and you end up being like an eight and nine team.

80:38I feel so good about a lot of the things that have happened to this team in the last year.

80:44To me, it's more about the conversation we're having about the Saints at this time last year versus the conversation we're having about the Saints now.

80:51Now, there is nothing that could get me to a place where it's keeping me up at night.

80:56Well, last year, Dave was picking between them in the wins pool when we were picking bad teams.

81:01He was like, do I pick the Browns or the Saints?

81:04And think about how definitely we're talking about those two teams right now.

81:07The Saints are the reason I didn't lose the win pool, by the way, pulling their act together in December.

81:13I will. I'll push back on you a little bit, though, and just say.

81:17And this goes, this isn't Tyler Shuck specific. This is for a lot of teams that have a young quarterback.

81:22I just. I want to know something about him when the season's over, like if they go eight and nine and he's

81:28whatever, and you have 18 reasons why it didn't look better, like if people get hurt and what all that shit.

81:34If we get to the end of the year and it's like, I don't know if he's the guy, but I don't know if that's his fault.

81:41I don't want to be there. I want to know.

81:44I want to. I want data. I think you want more clarity than that.

81:48But I think he showed enough of a floor where I'm just not really worried about that version of the conversation.

81:54I think it's going to be more about what is his ceiling?

81:57Like how far can he take us beyond what is put around him?

82:00I think overall the idea that you can win with Tyler Shuck.

82:04I already feel pretty good about that if everything else is good enough.

82:07But the other part, the last thing that's probably worth mentioning, Tyler Shuck hasn't had a very spotless injury history either.

82:13I mean, he's somebody that was hurt all throughout college.

82:16And there was just one more guy to throw out there.

82:19Not until his final college year. Let's get to the Atlanta Falcons.

82:22Our preview for the 2026 Atlanta Falcons. Their offseason in 60 seconds.

82:25Hired Kevin Stefanski as the head coach. Kept Jeff Ulbrich as the defensive coordinator.

82:29Signed to a talking by Lowe. Jawan Taylor. Jahan Dotson.

82:32Olami Zikias in free agency. I think combined those players are making like less than $20 million.

82:37Lost. Caleb Nellis. David Onyamada. Dee Alford and Tyler Algier in free agency.

82:40No first round pick in the draft. Avian Terrell in the second round.

82:44Zachariah Branch in the third round. Derek, what are you most excited about?

82:47As it relates to the 2026 Atlanta Falcons. Their three-headed monster on offense is as good as anybody.

82:52As far as the skill players go. Drake London.

82:55Bijan Robinson. Kyle Pitts. And like Kyle Pitts is I think a rung down from those guys.

82:59Obviously I think Bijan Robinson can make an argument.

83:02He's the best running back in the league. Drake London.

83:05I think you can make a case as like top 10 wide receiver in the league.

83:09And Pitts is. I think. I do believe that some of the stuff that we saw from Kyle Pitts last year was pretty real.

83:15I still think he's going to be a little bit of like an up and down volatile player just because some of the blocking stuff.

83:22How can you really use him? But I'm willing to buy that like some of the weird stuff in the middle of his career.

83:29He just wasn't healthy. And I'm willing to believe that like what we saw as a rookie and what we saw last

83:35year like yeah man he can really do that and have that level of giddy up.

83:39And so if you've got these three skill players that at any time can just give you a huge huge play.

83:45I'm going to be tuning into that. Beyond the fact that they're good.

83:49What is I'm most excited about is the idea that they're what they were supposed to be to a degree.

83:54Right. Like Pitts has never been the supernova of a player we thought he might be when you take him in the top five.

84:01That just never transpired even as a rookie. He had a thousand yards but I don't think he was ever the guy

84:07that that we saw on that film in Florida in part because of the injuries.

84:11But the other two guys like the idea that you took these three skill position players in consecutive drafts three years in

84:17a row in the top 10 and two of them are worth paying the way that you did.

84:22And Kyle Pitts is somebody that was worth paying and we're excited about watching continue his career.

84:26This is about as good as you probably could have realistically hoped for when you did this in the draft over a three year period.

84:33And if you're trying to build an exciting case for the Falcons this is where it starts.

84:38Like these three guys not just this year these three guys for the next two to three years.

84:43If the Falcons are going to be the team they want to be it starts with these three players and that's as

84:49good of a starting point as I think it probably could have been.

84:53If you had told me you were going to draft three skill position players in three consecutive first rounds.

84:58I appreciate this perspective because it's easy to not feel excited about it because there's so much uncertainty at quarterback.

85:03But these guys are locked in for the foreseeable future.

85:06And so and they're so good and they're so good and they're so like they're so unique all like all three of

85:12them are just they're they're unlike other players in the league.

85:15Like even what Drake and one is compared to the other best receivers in the league.

85:19I do think that they're exciting. The rest of the roster we'll talk about but but these three guys I think are a very exciting place to start.

85:27I actually took it in a hipster direction because I just I loved watching the secondary last year and the bulk of it is back.

85:34Yeah, like oh my gosh, I'm totally blanking on my guy who went to Buffalo.

85:38The offer the offer. Thank you. The offer it's gone, but Jesse Bates is back.

85:42Jesse Bates is on a four-year run of finishing with three plus interceptions him and Kirby Joseph are the only guys in the league.

85:49Doing that Jesse Bates is tied for the lead among all DBs for interceptions since 2020 13 since he got to Atlanta

85:55Xavier Watts five interceptions as a rookie incredibly fun.

85:57I think Derek brought this up during the summer.

86:00You would not guess that Billy Bowman only played six games if you didn't look at it like he was just so hyperactive.

86:06He was such a spark plug player five pressures two sacks a pick 26 tackles in six games like that is a

86:12crazy impact for a fourth round rookie. I hope he's back sooner rather than later.

86:16It still sounds like he's working his way back.

86:19I think week one is a kind of a remote possibility.

86:22That's too strong. I don't know if he's back in week one.

86:25I think it'll be in the first couple weeks of the season based on how I understand.

86:30It seems like there's optimism around it. And then I don't know if AJ Terrell's a top eight or ten cornerback in

86:36the league right now, but like he's still a good good player.

86:39He's a good foundational piece of the secondary and his brother's there now.

86:42And if you didn't watch a lot of avion Terrell their second round pick who his little brother who also played at Clemson.

86:49He's a and Dane said this. I'm not saying this.

86:51He is a honey badger player like he has a nose for the football.

86:55Jeff Ulbricht's gonna do some fun shit with him this year.

86:58I don't know if he's gonna start or what but I think he's gonna be in the mix in that slot role until we get Billy Bowman back.

87:06I feel like that's the place we will most quickly see and I'd want him to.

87:10Because like you don't have any pop if you don't have Billy Bowman or an avion Terrell in the lineup.

87:16Like avion Terrell does play like the younger brother of a guy who's also really good at playing NFL football because like

87:22he's not that not that AJ Terrell is like weak or anything like that.

87:26But avion Terrell has a little bit more shit starter to him as a younger brother.

87:30He's the undersized little brother. You can absolutely trace how that happens.

87:33He's such a shit and I say that with it's the highest form of most respect.

87:38Yeah. What are you watching the first month of the season Dave with these Atlanta Falcons?

87:42The weirdest quarterback room in the NFL. Because the report as it stands.

87:46Weirder than Cleveland? Yeah it is weirder than Cleveland because at the end of the day I said this before very cynically Cleveland makes sense.

87:53Because a really shitty quarterback on an impossibly bad contract is playing out the string because people there want that to happen.

87:59Like that makes sense. I don't know what to do with the Atlanta quarterback situation where I said it a week or so ago.

88:05If you were just following breadcrumbs it made all the sense in the world why Tua Tungvaluwa would be the starter here.

88:11And maybe he still will be. But the degree to which that has crumbled without anything actually happening.

88:16I'm stealing this from Twitter. I apologize because it was a really funny joke.

88:20But somebody said Tua might become the first quarterback to lose a competition in which he was the only participant.

88:25And by the way the guy who might take the job from him has dealt with a shitload of injury issues.

88:31And he just got back to practice like a week ago Michael Penix Jr.

88:35So I don't know what to do with it.

88:38I'm not very confident it's going to be good at least not right away.

88:41But it's bizarre. It's very bizarre. Because like clearly Kevin Stefanski was comfortable with the idea of Tua being his quarterback.

88:47Or else they wouldn't have signed him. Like yes.

88:50And so for that to feel like it's evaporating.

88:52And maybe Tua makes it to week one. Maybe Tua plays like the first month of the season.

88:57But I just have no degree of confidence it's going to be long lasting.

89:01I think the hope was that Tua would be good enough to give you stable quarterback play for a good chunk of the early part of the season.

89:09And then eventually you'd want to see Penix when he was healthy and he had plenty of time to acclimate.

89:14I think that timeline is significantly sped up. Yeah.

89:16I think Tua is still probably the right bet to at least start week one almost entirely because Penix just hasn't played.

89:22He has not played within the offense. He's done seven on seven and he's been in practice.

89:27But the fact that he was not fully cleared until very recently.

89:30I just wonder if he's going to have enough time to get up to speed to be the week one starter.

89:36I think he will play soon after that. If Penix is a starter by week two or week three and the Tua

89:42thing is just over almost immediately and he was only the week one starter because Penix didn't have enough time to ramp up.

89:49That's how I would bet this ends up. And I think too like this quarterback situation feels even weirder than it did when Tua signed there.

89:56Like I think when he first signed there it was a little bit easier to get yourself on the like yeah this

90:02can work for six weeks whatever it's going to be like so fancy you could craft an offense where this kind of works.

90:08I think the more that we've seen and heard from the preseason and from training camp and stuff like I feel like that's less likely.

90:15And so it does feel to me like the only upside case really is Michael Penix.

90:19And you actually kind of you kind of can get me there.

90:23Like I laid this out a little bit on a different show like when Michael Penix plays I'm still not sure what

90:29the ceiling is because I do think that he has some pretty clear limitations.

90:32But he could push the ball and he gets the ball quickly.

90:36He does not take negative plays like there are legitimate traits that you can build a pretty good offense around.

90:41And again if the three superstars that they have in B.

90:44John Robinson Drake London who he feeds a lot by the way when Michael Penix is playing quarterback he throws the ball to Drake London a million times.

90:52And Kyle Pitts out there it's like OK maybe we don't see good offense until closer to Thanksgiving and maybe it's a

90:58little bit too late too little too late. But I can see the world where they actually do look like a pretty competent offense with Michael Penix.

91:05Players with Penix are not terrible. They're slightly below average pretty much pretty much across the board but they're not terrible.

91:11You get watchable offense when he has been out there for the most part.

91:15And I think with everything else that's in place I wouldn't be surprised if we got to a finishing point where it

91:21was a watchable offense when he's back and healthy.

91:23They believe they can run the ball. I think that is and that's kind of what I'm watching over the first month of the season.

91:30What is the rest of the offense end up shaking out to be because there are a lot of points of curiosity here for me.

91:37Tommy Reese is coming in as the offensive coordinator from day one for the first time.

91:41It does a play call because he has taken over as the play caller from Kevin Stefanski over the last couple years

91:47but he has not been that guy from the start where it's my offense.

91:51I am the main voice behind this thing. This is my vision for how I want to see this through.

91:57And I do think that there will be elements of this that look much different than what we saw in Cleveland over the last couple years.

92:04A couple things that I would throw out. I think the run game is going to be more diversified than it was

92:10over the last couple seasons in Cleveland just because they think the line can do more.

92:14When the line is even if you have a question at right tackle what you want Taylor the other four guys three

92:20of them specifically with Matthews Bergeron and Lindstrom I think is a better quality line than a lot of the often injured lines in Cleveland's were.

92:28And I think the what they can put on this group mentally is just more than what they were able to do

92:34over the last couple years in Cleveland. So I think the run game is more diversified.

92:38I think we get a shitload of B. John just period.

92:41They're going to run the ball a ton. I think they did a lot of work in the offseason about some of

92:47the McCaffrey stuff and how we can find layers to the passing game where we can do even more with him as

92:53a receiver than they'd ever done in the past.

92:55The question to me is going to be all right if you can run the ball credibly which I think they can

93:02do the receiving core outside of London is bizarre.

93:04It is just that's a kind weird collection of players and why I think it is important in the considerations here are like kind of naughty is that.

93:12They want to move Drake around that you need to to get the most out of him.

93:16He's such a good player and receiver inside. Well, who are you going to stick outside?

93:21If you do that all the guys that you have like 511 or shorter.

93:25And so I think they're going to have to be really creative with the ways that they're using those guys hiding those

93:31guys and getting Drake into advantageous situations. For the most part when Atlanta or in Cleveland, this is not a heavy motion usage team.

93:37It will be this year. They will use a ton of motion stacks bunches to be able to give those guys an

93:43opportunity to survive on the outside quote unquote while you're using Drake one in all the ways that you want to like

93:49when Zachariah branches theoretically your number two receiver by the end of the season.

93:53You're going to have to be creative with the ways you're using him if you're going to put Drake one in the slot.

93:59And so those elements of the offense. I'm very curious to see what those end up looking like Zachariah branches is a guy you can get creative with.

94:07The whole thing on him coming out of Georgia was does he ever run routes down the field?

94:12Like can we see him get the ball more than five or six yards down the field?

94:17But you watch it preseason game. I think it was the first pass.

94:20He looks good that they put him on the outside.

94:23He ran a blaze out and they threw it to him.

94:26And they really do believe in his ability to do like real receiver things.

94:30There are top of the gimmicky shit. There are plenty of people in the draft sphere who are like Georgia just didn't

94:36let him do any of that shit. It doesn't mean he can't do it.

94:40For being a third round pick, I think, and also just what is in front of him on the depth chart in Atlanta other than Drake London.

94:47Like that, I think that's a third round pick worth being more excited about than your average third round pick.

94:53Zaccheaus is going to play a decent amount at the beginning of the year.

94:56I think just because he is that like consummate.

94:59There's a reason that you can go from Chicago's offense to an offense like this.

95:03It's going to use a shitload of motion and be a player that's relied on early in the season.

95:08The exact same way the Bears did because he's smart.

95:11He's smart. He's a veteran. We can put a lot on him.

95:14And so I think that's the that's one of the pluses of this group overall, even if there's not a lot of

95:20true difference making players outside of London, Bichon and Pitts is that they think it's a smart group that they can pull

95:26a lot of sneaky levers with when it comes to motions, things like that in order to get by.

95:31Yeah. And as far as the run game, like Zaccheaus will throw down a little bit as a blocker and their second tight end.

95:38Charlie Werner is not particularly dynamic as a pass catcher, but he is a pretty good blocker for them.

95:43And so the fact that they've like, again, I don't know who the best pass catcher outside of the superstars is supposed

95:49to be, but at least these other guys are useful and like do something for you and you can see what their

95:55role is supposed to be within the offense. What was your thing that you were watching over the first month of the season, Derek?

96:02You touched on it a little bit. It's mostly the run game.

96:05Like, what does it look like? Because it almost it just has to be different.

96:09I mean, last year, the last handful of years, whether it was Arthur Smith calling the plays, Zach Robinson with Wayne Ledford, there's the offensive line coach.

96:17It was just all zone all the time. And the Stefanski Reese offenses for them, like when they have been good, obviously

96:23the last couple of years, it was a little bit more simplified.

96:26But when they were at their peak and when they were good, it was a lot more like doing, you know, pulling

96:32guards and it was a lot more counter and it was a lot more trap.

96:36And it's just they had a varied run game where on any given down, you just didn't know exactly what you were

96:42going to get from the run game. And so how much more of that we see I'm interested in and how good

96:48can they be at that when like it's such a dramatic change for this offensive line.

96:53And I do think that they can handle it mentally.

96:55And these guys are pretty talented. But when it's just such a dramatic change, sometimes it's a little bit hard to like

97:01picture exactly how good it's supposed to look. Yeah, and I think it will be a fairly dramatic change.

97:07And so the question is going to be how much can they put on this group as a whole to be the engine of the entire offense?

97:14Because I think that's the bet that they're making here.

97:17What is keeping you up at night, David, about the 2026 Atlanta Falcons?

97:20As I said at the top of the show, I don't know if anything about the 2026 Falcons is keeping me awake at night.

97:27And we've been joking all year that they're just this is a wait and see year.

97:31And so I feel like they're just content to let this thing play out.

97:35I don't know how high the stakes are. I'll get real existential with it, though.

97:39In the big picture, I appreciate y'all giving me some perspective that Pitts, Drake and Bijan are all locked in for the foreseeable future.

97:46But at some point, I start to get nervous that.

97:48With each passing season, these guys are becoming not any like they're not getting younger.

97:53The clock is ticking on these three phenomenal players.

97:55And I start to get nervous that we're going to look up and say, holy shit, these guys like never had a chance to play meaningful NFL football.

98:03I mean, Pitts is entering year six. Drake is entering year five.

98:06Bijan is only 24. I get that. He has a thousand touches already.

98:10He leads the league in career touches since getting into the NFL over Saquon Barkley and Derek Henry.

98:15And CMC. But I guess he missed most of that season.

98:18He had some injuries. His rookie year, he didn't play as much as you think.

98:22CMC. Yeah. I don't have time to wait for these guys to be playing big time NFL football.

98:27And this feels like a season where that's not going to happen.

98:30Maybe I'm wrong, but that's my assumption. And that's not OK.

98:33It's not OK to have a core of skill players like this and just be like, well, guess we'll see what they do next year.

98:40That sucks. So that's what I'm losing sleep about.

98:42That needs to change in 2027. Derek, what are you losing sleep about with the 2026 Falcons?

98:47I think on one hand, like I hear Dave with the like we're wasting another year and we probably are.

98:52And I do think a lot of that comes back to the quarterback play.

98:56I think that also comes back to like I think the defense is going to start to waste this team.

99:02And I think last year we talked about them as this elephant in the room.

99:06This is the one that like the front seven specifically is terrible.

99:09Terrible. It is. It is not good. And last year, I think that they were obviously they were much better as a

99:15pass rushing unit last year, but it was a lot more blitzing and they were just a more talented room.

99:21Like obviously this year, because of all the legal issues that he's going to have, James Pierce is going to miss at

99:27least the first half of the season. Jalen Walker is going to miss a significant amount of time.

99:32They lose Caden Ellis. He's out for the year.

99:34Yeah, he's out for the year. Caden Ellis, who I just talked about on the last team with the Saints, he is

99:40no longer in the building at linebacker. They replaced him with Christian Harris, who I don't really think of as like a move around super blitz piece.

99:47And so they're losing that element of it. And then the interior defensive line, I think, is still a huge issue, which it was last year, too.

99:55It's just that when they got into pass rushdowns, some of the blitz stuff and some of the edge work was good

100:01enough that it could still get them some negative plays.

100:04I just think that there's a world that for as exciting and fun and as promising as last year's front seven felt

100:10at times, I just don't think that that necessarily bodes success for this year when half of those guys are just gone

100:16or at least not going to play for the first half of this year.

100:20I think the four best players in the front seven for the Falcons last year were probably Caden Ellis, James Pierce, Jalen Walker, and David Onyemata.

100:27None of them are on the team. None of them are going to be playing in the first half of the season.

100:33You didn't say the name of a player that's going to be available anytime soon.

100:37In the first half of the season. This team blitzed on 37% of their drop of opponent dropbacks last year as the second highest rate in the league.

100:44They were really good at it. The pass rush came alive when they the way that they manufactured stuff last year.

100:50You're going to have to do that again, which is significantly worse players.

100:54It's you're hanging on to your hat. Mason Smith has apparently had a really, really good training camp.

100:59They traded him for Rook Roro this offseason. If that's your saving grace, like man, Mason Smith's had a great training camp.

101:05I think that speaks to the overall quality and outlook for this front seven.

101:09Even if you're excited about the secondary. I mean, we're talking about signing his area Smith off the street on like August

101:1522nd and him being a huge part of your plans almost immediately because he has to be.

101:19And even if you look at the pass rush from last year, 25% of their pressures turned into sacks last season was

101:25the highest rate in the entire league. So they were on the positive side of some volatile stuff even last year when the players were significantly better.

101:33So Jeff Ulbrich has his work cut out for him with this group.

101:36I mean, you're I don't even know what you're supposed to do to get this to even a passable place considering the players that you're working with.

101:44Dial up the goofy DB blitzes. That's I didn't say the secondary would be fun in the sense that this will be a good defense.

101:51Just maybe you can do some fun shit with those players because you might have to.

101:55They're going to have to be volatile and they know that.

101:58But it's a level of volatility that I'm not even sure what it looks like in a positive way.

102:03I mean, I don't either because like again, we mentioned the two edge guys that are going to be not starting for them.

102:09I think the starting week one edges are going to be like Zedarius Smith and Samson Ebicam.

102:14And behind him is like Cam Thomas and Aziz Ojolari.

102:17Like it's these are guys that I think these should be like I think even on like decent teams.

102:22If these are your third guys, you're a little bit like, can we add somebody else?

102:26The fact that all these guys are going to be like starting and being significant snaps for them.

102:31It's a tough start to start in week one, let alone if any of these guys get banged up, which like Zedarius Smith is an older player.

102:39And Ebicam has had some injury issues the last couple of years.

102:42What does success look like, Dave, for the 2026 Atlanta Falcons?

102:45Yes, Penix takes the job ASAP, shows you some progress, plays well enough that the Falcons are willing to pick up the option probably.

102:52And if the skill play, if the, you know, if the big three shine because Penix plays that well, you could win this division.

102:58Or actually, this is the only team I've done so far where I had two.

103:02I think I have two acceptable answers here. That is the rose-colored glasses successful season.

103:06The other one, I think it's probably a good thing if just the wheels frickin' come off and this is a slog,

103:12but you're in a position to get yourself a quarterback next year.

103:16So I'm meeting you in the middle on that.

103:18I think the win-loss record here is almost immaterial.

103:21If Penix is bad, but let's say you win, let's say you go 6-11 this year.

103:25And you're in a position to draft a quarterback and you have a definitive answer by the end of the season that

103:31you don't think Michael Penix is your answer. For the future.

103:34That is okay to me as long as the bottom doesn't fall out with the rest of it.

103:39Yeah. If we're in a place where you're unwatchable for like a vast majority of this season, where we elicit groans when

103:45you mention the Atlanta Falcons, that's the type of 6-11 season I don't think you can have in year one of a new regime.

103:52The bottom can't fall out of this thing. You can lose a lot of games, but you can't be more than a speed bump.

103:58You have to be more than a speed bump for teams.

104:01It can't be a situation where we're looking around being like, man, this is f***ing ugly by the time we get to

104:07December where you're just hitting sim to end. If you don't do that, it almost doesn't matter.

104:12If we're at a place where, man, like Reese, Colin plays, the skill position guys, we've got enough pieces along the offensive line.

104:18When we get the young pass rushers back next year, like we'll, and let's say whatever the quarterback solution ends up being,

104:24we have enough around it where we're building positive momentum heading into year two of the regime.

104:29That's enough for me, independent of how many games they win.

104:32I think that's all it is. Quarterback clarity for an offense we still want to bet on going into next season.

104:38Like that, that kind of all. I think that's right.

104:40That's a good way of framing it. That's a good way of framing it.

104:44Quarterback clarity for an offense we still want to bet on next season.

104:48And we're still in a place by the end of the year where like, man, Jeff Ulbrich is, he's getting the most

104:54out of whatever these ingredients look like. Let's get him some better ingredients next year.

104:58I think it's important. We haven't really said this, just really be clear about it.

105:02Like the Falcons did nothing this off season on purpose.

105:05Yeah. They did nothing. Like this is a holding pattern off season for a team that because they have Bijan, because they

105:11have Drake one and because they have Kyle Pitts and they paid all those guys.

105:15I think it's easy to forget that this is a team intentionally taking a half step back and a team very much

105:21in transition, independent of the fact that they have a new coaching staff and a new GM.

105:26And so them not being very good at football this year, it's almost part of the plan.

105:30And I think that's OK, but the bottom can't fall out of it.

105:34I support the plan in the big picture. It doesn't make them all that compelling heading into week one of the season.

105:40It really doesn't. I think they're doing the right thing.

105:43And they play in a division where if Pennix plays well enough or if they catch the right breaks, they could win the NFC South.

105:50It would probably take some but they could do it.

105:52But either way, like I said, there are there are multiple paths forward to a successful season, which that's it's definitely copium.

105:58But at least there's that I like what Derek said, because if they go 10 and seven and Pennix is great, that is quarterback clarity for an offense.

106:06We're still excited about if they go six and 11 and Pennix is bad, but the rest of it is good.

106:12That is quarterback clarity for an offense that we're still excited about.

106:15And so that it's it's one of the weirder answers.

106:18But I actually do think that's a great way because because like I almost don't really care what happens with the defense

106:24because the front seven is just so banged up.

106:26I'm like, I don't know, man. But like and I actually think it will be interesting and kind of telling that if

106:32if this defense is much worse and they've got to play a bunch of shootouts and they just get in these weird

106:38games and Pennix looks like capable by the end.

106:41He's going to have to go win them a number of shootouts.

106:44And I think you're going to start to get like a pretty clear look of like, OK, how much of this can he really handle?

106:51And so I think we will get quarterback clarity.

106:53And so, again, whether that's a 10 win and the offense looks pretty good or six wins and we got to go get somebody else.

107:00I think we will get that clarity. I don't Michael Pennix hasn't become the guy.

107:04I'd be thrilled. I like watching him play. He plays an exciting, exciting brand of football.

107:09He has limitations. But a world where Michael Pennix becomes that guy for the Falcons.

107:13I would love that even if I I'm not sure how confident I am and it end up being that way.

107:19I'm not confident in the big picture, but I I'll bet you $50 right now.

107:23The Michael Pennix Falcons are going to play one of the games of the year this year because they're good for one a year.

107:29That is true. They're good for like a 3330 barn burner.

107:32They play the Bengals on November 8th. It's going to be the most fun I have all year.

107:37Oh, it's a it's a Europe game, too. Yeah, I'll 4542 Bengals Falcons game.

107:41I don't wake you up in the morning. Let's go, dude.

107:44All right. That is all we've got for the Falcons and for the NFC South preview.

107:48We will be back with our next division tomorrow.

107:51For those of you guys listening on the audio feed here, live show tickets are still available for the show tomorrow.

107:57September 1st at Lincoln Hall. Few tickets are still left.

107:59If you want to grab them, encourage you guys to do that.

108:03For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you listening.

108:05We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in.

108:08Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.

108:12If you enjoyed what you heard, please like comment and leave a rating.

108:16We'll see you next time.

More episodes from The Athletic Football Show

The most surprising developments in the season's first month

Oct 8, 2026

Building the Beast: Austin Simmons and C.J. Carr get their turn in the QB Corner

Oct 7, 2026

Week 4 Hangover: Bryce Young's big night, the Chargers season gets worse, and the Giants move into first place

Oct 6, 2026

Falcons stomp Saints behind dominant run game, 45-24

Oct 6, 2026

Week 4 Recap: Chiefs and 49ers Remain unbeated, Jaguars win ugly, CeeDee Lamb goes off

Oct 5, 2026

Week 4 Preview: The Raiders are in our Game of the Week!

Oct 2, 2026