The 2026 TAFS Wins Pool Draft

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 1 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Sep 7, 2026

Published

Mon, September 7, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Alec PierceBo NixColston LovelandJalen HurtsA.J. BrownAaron RodgersBaker MayfieldBrandon AiyukBrock PurdyDaniel JonesDrake MayeGeorge KittleJa'Marr ChaseJayden Daniels

Player analysis

Player insights

A.J. Brown

PositiveRole25:00

The source references AJ Brown being added to the Eagles roster as part of the MVP runner-up (Jalen Hurts) team composition, supporting the Eagles' offensive capability in the 2026 season.

Insight page

Aaron Rodgers

NegativeProjection52:03

The source expresses reluctance to have faith tied to Aaron Rodgers' current play, stating 'I refuse' to watch him play the way he plays right now. The source does not believe in the Steelers' ceiling at all, really, but will take them anyway.

Insight page

Alec Pierce

NegativeRole47:01

The source uses Alec Pierce as an example of a player who becomes more attractive as a draft pick later in the process; initially, the speaker notes he hasn't had a training camp and seems unattractive, but three rounds later the speaker wants to draft him. This illustrates the dynamic of draft board movement and changing perception.

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PositiveProjection52:32

The source mentions that if Alec Pierce comes back healthy by early October, the Colts could be a pretty good team again, suggesting Pierce's health and return timing are important factors in the team's offensive upside.

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Baker Mayfield

NegativeProjection49:00

The source notes that nobody thinks Baker Mayfield is an elite quarterback, but argues the Buccaneers roster is relatively healthy and the team could be much better than given credit for if the offensive line stays healthy. The source believes there are reasons for last year's poor second-half performance that are addressable heading into the new season.

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Bo Nix

NegativeProjection19:00

Dave Clarke states 'if I'm going to go down with someone, it's not going to be Bo Nix,' indicating he would rather lose with the Broncos and their defense than commit to Nix as the quarterback, despite picking Denver in the Wins Pool.

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PositiveProjection19:19

The source believes Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos are one of the most complete teams in the entire league, though they don't project to win 14 games this season. The speaker is backing the team despite aesthetic concerns about their play style, focusing on practical results over appearance.

Insight page

Brandon Aiyuk

PositiveBreakout38:00

The source is buying into Brandon Aiyuk's potential with the 49ers, believing he could be more dynamic and useful than some of the receivers they had last year, though not necessarily elite in the NFL receiver hierarchy. The speaker notes he just needs to be better than Kendrick Bourne and slightly more productive than Juwan Jennings by season's end.

Insight page

Brock Purdy

PositiveProjection37:07

The source believes the 49ers offense has a strong floor when moderately healthy, ranking top-seven by DVOA last year and even better by other metrics when Brock Purdy returned. The speaker is backing the 49ers despite concerns about their appearance going into the season.

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Colston Loveland

NegativeProjection38:39

The source uses Colston Loveland's playoff performance as a touchstone for optimism when facing defensive concerns; specifically, when worried about depth chart or roster issues, the speaker recalls Loveland's playoff production as a calming reference point that soothes concerns about team construction.

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PositiveRole39:11

The source references Colston Loveland's playoff performance as a key memory to focus on when managing expectations about team picks, suggesting his production in the playoffs was significant enough to justify backing teams despite regular-season concerns.

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Daniel Jones

PositiveProjection52:32

The source believes Daniel Jones is as healthy as everybody keeps telling him he is and argues the Colts would not be an outright abysmal team if Jones is healthy. The source notes that if Jones is healthy and the offensive line looks good and Pierce comes back healthy by early October, the Colts could be a pretty good team again.

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Drake Maye

NegativeRole25:40

The source mentions Drake May as the quarterback for the New England Patriots in the 2026 season, noting they get to root for him and the Rams this year, suggesting optimism about the Patriots' direction with May at quarterback.

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George Kittle

PositiveRole38:45

The source mentions George Kittle returning to the 49ers as a positive factor supporting the team's offensive floor and the speaker's pick of San Francisco, alongside Brandon Aiyuk and other offensive weapons.

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Ja'Marr Chase

PositiveProjection27:30

The source includes Jamar Chase as a key component of the Bengals' offensive firepower supporting an 11-win projection, alongside Joe Burrow and T Higgins, even with the team's 18th-best defense and terrible schedule.

Insight page

Jalen Hurts

PositiveProjection19:00

Dave Clarke notes that Jalen Hurts is 'orange' (a reference to the Broncos' color) and that the Eagles with Hurts are 'one of the most complete teams in the entire league,' though he chose Denver over Philadelphia in the draft.

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PositiveProjection19:34

The source views Jalen Hurts and the Eagles as a functional, complete team despite aesthetic concerns about their play style. The speaker is willing to back them based on practical results rather than how they look, though they don't project a 14-win season.

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Jayden Daniels

PositiveProjection56:46

The source believes Jaden Daniels is a good player and is picking him as the best quarterback left on the board at pick 23. Daniels did not have Laremy Tunsil in 2024, so if the offensive line improves with Tunsil's return, the Commanders could be a pretty good team.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveRole18:00

Dave Clarke expresses enthusiasm about Jalen Waddle joining the Broncos offense, saying 'Jalen Waddle go burr' as shorthand for his excitement about the offensive upgrade.

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Joe Burrow

NegativeInjury27:06

The source is concerned about Joe Burrow's injury history, noting that injuries happen frequently but believing he feels sturdier this year. The speaker projects the Bengals to win 11 games if Burrow plays 14-15 games, with the team's 18th-best defense, Jamar Chase, and T Higgins supporting the projection despite a terrible schedule.

Insight page

Jonathan Taylor

PositiveProjection52:32

The source notes that Jonathan Taylor still kicks ass, using his continued production as a reason to believe the Colts could be a competitive team if Daniel Jones is healthy and the offensive line performs well.

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Jordyn Tyson

NegativeRole47:27

The source mentions drafting Jordan Tyson and stashing him on injured reserve, indicating Tyson is dealing with an injury that will sideline him early in the season.

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Josh Allen

PositiveProjection11:00

Derek Carr notes that Josh Allen is 'consistently elite' and that when Allen is on the field, the Bills are 'a top five offense every single time,' making them a safe 11-win team even with defensive questions.

Insight page

Justin Herbert

NegativeProjection23:48

The source notes that Justin Herbert's 65-yard throw in the offseason creates a narrative where past Chargers struggles cease to matter for players like Quinton Johnston. The speaker drafted Herbert in every fantasy league somewhat accidentally and is trying to keep the Chargers at arm's length, believing the team will win at least 10 games with Jim Harbaugh but not reach elite contender status.

Insight page

Justin Jefferson

PositiveProjection41:18

When Justin Jefferson has anyone but J.J. McCarthy playing quarterback, he averages approximately 100 catches, 1600 yards, and 10 touchdowns. This historical production level is cited as evidence of the Vikings' offensive upside with Kyler Murray at quarterback.

Insight page

Kendrick Bourne

NegativeRole38:25

The source uses Kendrick Bourne as a baseline comparison for Brandon Aiyuk's expected production with the 49ers, suggesting Aiyuk just needs to be slightly better than Bourne to provide value to the offense.

Insight page

Kenneth Gainwell

NegativeRole54:00

Kenny Gainwell's touches from last year are expected to be absorbed by Jeremy Bernard in the Steelers' offense, suggesting a potential role change or reduction for Gainwell.

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Kyler Murray

PositiveProjection41:18

Derek argues Kyler Murray is better than J.J. McCarthy and not worse than Sam Darnold; Murray was statistically similar to Darnold's 2024 season and was that good in Arizona in 2024. Murray was better than Darnold for 80 percent of his career. Derek is betting on Murray returning to form after a down 2024 season, giving him a mulligan given his elite traits for his size.

Insight page

Lamar Jackson

PositiveProjection10:00

Robert Mays cites Lamar Jackson's historical win production as a key reason for drafting the Ravens, noting that since Jackson became the starter, the Ravens are 'the second or third most winning team in the NFL' and 'just pump out wins.' He also notes that every time Lamar has had a new offensive coordinator in the last five years, he's won the MVP that season, and the Ravens have a new coordinator this year.

Insight page

Matthew Stafford

NegativeProjection7:00

Robert Mays notes Stafford is 38 years old as part of his concern about the LA Rams' age profile, though he ultimately commits to the team despite hedging against them during the offseason.

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Mike Evans

NegativeInjury38:43

The source notes that Mike Evans is being held out of practice as a precautionary measure most days, drawing a parallel to the speaker's own aging body and the 49ers' roster composition as they deal with injury management.

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Patrick Mahomes

PositiveProjection31:58

The source is backing Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs despite feeling weird about the team, believing that when Mahomes is healthy, the offense will be fine and the defense with young players and Spagnuolo will be solid. The speaker notes the Chiefs had the worst one-score game luck last year (1-7 or 1-8) after going 11-0 in close games the prior year, suggesting regression to the mean is likely.

Insight page

Quentin Johnston

PositiveBreakout23:48

The source suggests Quinton Johnston might be good now following Justin Herbert's impressive 65-yard throw in the offseason, implying the narrative around the Chargers' offensive potential has shifted to make Johnston's upside more relevant despite the team's recent history.

Insight page

Stefon Diggs

PositiveProjection57:07

Stefan Diggs was very good last year, and paired with Terry McLaurin forms a strong receiver duo for the Commanders. The source uses Diggs' production as evidence that the Commanders have offensive weapons to support Jaden Daniels.

Insight page

Terry McLaurin

PositiveProjection57:07

Terry McLaurin paired with Stefan Diggs forms a strong receiver duo for the Commanders, though the source notes they are aging (qualify for the early bird special). This duo is cited as evidence that Jaden Daniels has weapons to work with.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

833

0:00Welcome to The Athletic Football Show, brought to you by the US Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card.

0:05I'm Robert Mays. We got a good one for you guys today.

0:08It's the Wins Pool Draft. One of my favorite things we do each and every season.

0:13We didn't really explain the rules at the top of this, so just a heads up.

0:17Each year, we pick a collection of teams, the three of us, and whoever has the least amount of wins at the

0:23end of the season has to pay off a bet on Radio Row.

0:27Last year, Derek had to wear a wolf costume because the standard of the bet was that whatever team did you in

0:33the worst, you had to dress up like a super fan of that team.

0:37We're not exactly sure what the punishment is this year, but same general idea with how the competition is going to work.

0:43The only thing is we did eight teams each this year, eight good teams rather than picking a selection of bad teams.

0:49So those are the rules as we get started.

0:52One wrinkle to this. We recorded this live at Lincoln Hall in Chicago, which was great.

0:56It was really fun to do it in front of an audience.

1:00Ran into one small hiccup. There was an issue with the audio that cuts out at some point during the recording.

1:06It was right in the middle of Derek's picking the Chiefs again, which is very funny.

1:10And then it missed a couple picks right after that.

1:13It's me taking the Niners and then Dave picking the Bears at 15.

1:17And then it comes back during the discussion of Dave's pick of the Bears.

1:21We're sorry about this. This is obviously something we can't really control.

1:24This is just the nature of it when you're doing a live show and kind of in somebody else's hands when it comes to the audio itself.

1:32We are going to hopefully go get the actual recording off of the hard drive from the venue at some point this

1:38week and re-upload the entire show at some point if we can do that.

1:42And so apologies. Obviously, I hate when stuff like this happens, but there was really nothing we could do about it.

1:48And we absolutely wanted you to have the majority of the show in your guys' feeds.

1:52Thank you so much to everyone who came out to the live show.

1:56We love doing them. We'll continue to do them in some capacity, hopefully do them in some different cities moving forward.

2:02But that's what we got today. It's the wind's pool draft with a little chunk left out of the middle, which we're sorry for.

2:08Let's get to it right now. I'd like to say we were cultivating an air of mystery back there, but we were just working through some technical stuff.

2:16I was trying to do my best Axl Rose impression.

2:19That's not our vibe. Far from it. It could be.

2:22I've listened to enough Guns N' Roses. You are the most mysterious rock star of the group, for sure.

2:27Sincerely appreciate all of you guys coming. We are really looking forward to this.

2:31The Wins Pool is obviously an important part of the athletic football show lore and has been for many years.

2:37If you guys have forgotten what is at stake with this show and with this exercise, a quick reminder.

2:42Oh, yeah. So if anyone here is unfamiliar with how this has gone, that is you.

2:46That's you, buddy. That is you dressed as a wolf on Radio Row.

2:50That is you. If anyone is unfamiliar with how the hot, what?

2:53Oh, yes, exactly. So that's if anyone's unfamiliar with this, we have done this show for three years now.

2:59I lost the first two years. The first punishment was that I had to dress in the I think you should leave

3:05hot dog suit in a very professional environment. And the sheer amount of looks I got from people working there at the

3:11convention center in Los Angeles was worth it. But the next year was actually my wife's friend's idea.

3:16The punishment was we had to get our face painted like a child at a kid's birthday party.

3:21I don't know if I ever talked about this.

3:24I literally had a I call I found a woman in New Orleans that would come do it at your hotel room.

3:30Great city for it. And so I had a woman come to my hotel room and paint my face.

3:35And every 10 seconds, she was like, we need more glitter.

3:38And she just kept throwing out. She knew what this was about.

3:42I was finding glitter in my clothes for a month after we did this.

3:46And so I was so happy last year that I did not lose and that Derek actually had to bite the bullet.

3:52And you took it like a champ. I wish that you had kept the wolf face more than you did.

3:57But well, it's hard because you want to walk the line of like make it look like a wolf, but still make it obvious that it's me.

4:05Yeah, yeah. So you have to do all the shame for sure.

4:08Nobody knows that it's you. I think what it really set in for me was maybe like 30, 45 minutes into like

4:15because I did a couple of laps. I'm trying to make sure that everybody sees me.

4:19You were a good sport about it. And one of the Giants reporters, I forget who it was, but they had posted

4:25something on Twitter about like that's day two at Radio Row.

4:28And it's it's me. And I'm like, I know him like what?

4:32What players or coaches did you have to talk to that day?

4:35Do you remember? I don't think I had any of my player stuff that day, so I didn't have to do any work in it.

4:42That was that's a mistake on our part. We should have made that.

4:46Anybody but Fred Warner, I would have been OK.

4:48You couldn't have made me do Fred Warner in that.

4:51My biggest fear with this, like I don't take myself seriously, obviously, if you've ever looked at me.

4:56But the idea of like having to talk to Kyle Hamilton or somebody dressed like that just sends shivers down my spine.

5:02All pros should be off the board. I did have to do it.

5:06I can't remember who it was. I know you did.

5:09The hot dog suit, I definitely had to talk to someone.

5:12The fact that I can't remember is an indication that I pushed it all out of my mind.

5:17What is what's our punishment this year? Have we figured that out?

5:20We've not figured that out yet. I think it was going to be a similar sort of deal because I do like

5:26this because it changes every single year depending on the fan base.

5:30And so we haven't settled on it yet. If you guys have suggestions, we would love to hear from you.

5:35But I think we're aiming and leaning this direction.

5:38Super fan. Yes. So the nice wrinkle with this is we do not know the order that these picks are going to happen in.

5:45We're all going to find that out together because we're going to do the hundred yard dash live to figure out what the draft order is.

5:52Katie, you cue it up when you're ready. Now I'm very invested in this.

5:56Oh boy. Oh boy. Oh God. I think this is the first time Dave has won one of these.

6:01So he's very excited. I've been I foresaw that this morning.

6:04I was like, I'm going to win the moment.

6:07This is your moment. I'm going to win. Oh, I can't say I love that.

6:11I'm wearing the same shirt. I can't say I love that.

6:14I can't say I love that. I can't say I love anything about that photograph, which I communicated to Katie when I

6:20saw that she put it on there. I love you.

6:23Thank you. The best part about this is you guys have listened to the show.

6:27There's some preparation that goes into it. There are some numbers that we look up and we take it very seriously.

6:33We want to do a good job. There is nothing like that associated with this exercise.

6:38This is 100% vibes based. I have a list of teams.

6:41There's no notes. There's no numbers. This is just all about who you want to believe in over the course of the season.

6:47And it's the most punishing show we will do.

6:50We should do the most research with this. Dave literally pulled a piece of paper out of his shoe.

6:55That's what we're doing here. Like the offenses and defenses draft.

6:58If we lose, okay, we've got to buy dinner.

7:01But that's not like emotionally and personally embarrassing. Losing this is a different level.

7:05The late Mike Leach always said like you should be able to fit your offense on a five by three index card.

7:11Don't overcomplicate this. So that's what I'm doing tonight.

7:13All right. Well, you have the first pick. I assume I know what you're going to be doing with us.

7:19You know, it's funny if you've listened to the show this summer, I've been trying like hell to hedge against the LA

7:25Rams because it's terrifying to have that much expectation of success.

7:28Matthew Stafford's 38th tackles. We know there's a lot of old players on this team.

7:33I just want to be invested in the LA Rams and I spent the summer hedging.

7:37I'm not going to overthink it tonight. I want to I want to be involved with this team.

7:42I want to be rooting for the Rams and enjoying watching them play football this year.

7:47There are a few ways I could have gone with this to try to overthink it like I did with the bills in the offense draft.

7:54I'm not doing that tonight. I'm taking the LA Rams.

7:57They're the Super Bowl favorite. Their odds are insane.

7:59Aaron Donald's going to play with Miles Garrett this year.

8:02I'm over the moon. I'm extremely jealous. Yeah, I'm just having any sort of stake in what they are.

8:07I'm extremely. I would be so mad if I talked myself out of the Rams and then just watch them steamroll everybody all the time.

8:14I don't I don't want to do that. And of course it could blow up in my face, but that's a risk.

8:21I'm very comfortable with the unfortunate part of having the second pick is that no matter what I do.

8:26I'm going to piss somebody off. Somebody is going to be offended that I did not choose them.

8:31You have the easy one. No one's going to be offended if you go with the Rams except Seahawks fans, but they're not going to be offended.

8:38They understand the regular season wins whether they should be the Super Bowl all that stuff.

8:43The treating the Rams winning the Super Bowl as a foregone conclusion should piss Seahawks fans off picking the Rams to win

8:49the most games in the regular season in the NFL this year.

8:53I think is a completely reasonable place to land.

8:55Yeah, that's fair. I have a board and I'm already just ignoring it.

8:59That's the beauty of the exercise. I'm just completely ignoring it already.

9:02How are you already second guessing this when you know what I was going to do to make him feel better?

9:08I looked at my board just now and I have three teams in the top category and I was like, maybe the

9:14fourth one is actually the one that I should be paying.

9:17That's the problem. It's essentially a tier of four teams or three teams after the Rams that you could choose from.

9:23All right. I already regret this. I'm going to go with the Ravens.

9:27Oh, man. Okay. You heard it here, folks. Robert May is back to the Baltimore Ravens.

9:31That's the team I wanted to ride with. They have the same over under as the Rams.

9:36It's 11 and a half. Do they really? Yes.

9:39It would probably shock most people. Yes. Shocked me when I saw it.

9:42I feel okay about this. I believe in the Jesse Minter thing.

9:46I've hitched my wagon emotionally now to Declan Doyle, which I'm comfortable doing.

9:49I'm okay with it. I'm going to go with the Ravens.

9:52It's in part because the Seahawks play in the same division as the Rams and the 49ers.

9:57I just think that, and the Ravens played not a first place schedule.

10:01They didn't make the playoffs last year. And so this is more about the tiebreaker considerations with the Ravens compared to a

10:07team like the Seahawks or even the Bills. It was giddy to draft the Ravens last year and we saw how that went.

10:13So it might just be, it might be sour grapes on my part.

10:17That's also part of it is that they had the down year last year.

10:21I don't know if it's going to happen again.

10:23And so you had to endure that. I don't know if I'll have to.

10:27And I also think like on a very simple level, not that quarterback wins is everything, but like since Lamar Jackson has

10:34been the starter, they're like the second or third most winning team in the NFL.

10:38Like they just pump out wins. Like they will most likely be a very good football team.

10:43And this is not scientific whatsoever, but every time Lamar has had a new offensive coordinator in the last five years, he's won the MVP that season.

10:50And so I'm just, we have an on again, off again, sort of situation with the Ravens.

10:55I'm hoping this is one of the on again seasons.

10:58You're up at three, Derek. What are you doing?

11:00That actually made my decision easier to me, which leaves me with the Buffalo bills.

11:04And I feel pretty good about that. I feel pretty good about taking the Buffalo bills.

11:09There's a little bit of uncertainty. I don't know if I love Joe Brady being the head coach, but Josh Allen is consistently elite and I'm okay.

11:17Writing with that. What's going on? What are you thinking over there?

11:20I just love the fact that you shouldn't pick the Seahawks now because mathematically, because you're limiting your chances of maximizing your win total.

11:27I don't give a shit. They only play each other twice.

11:30I'll be okay. Sorry. We're stepping on Derek's night.

11:32There's not a whole lot to say. They're the bills.

11:35Like I, even if I have some questions about the defense, I do think that injecting some new ideas.

11:40Is there as nice and it's what you said on the offense show.

11:44When Josh Allen is out there, they're a top five offense every single time.

11:48I'm pretty sure so long as the defense is not a burning crater, they will be an 11 win team and I'll be okay with that.

11:55It is a pretty safe pick for that reason.

11:58I just, maybe we really do hate the Seahawks.

12:00We just, we always let them fall in these exercises, but I won't let that happen.

12:05I'll take them right here with my, what is it?

12:08Fourth pick. Yeah. I just, they're, they're better than fourth, right?

12:11This is not about who's the best team. This is about who's going to win the most games.

12:16These are two different questions. I think they're going to pile up wins this year.

12:20Even in the NFC West, I think it's okay.

12:22Like they, I just think the division is harder.

12:25The schedule is going to be harder. They won the division last year.

12:29That is, that was the rationale for the Ravens.

12:31It's a coin flip between the Ravens and the Seahawks.

12:34I want to be very clear about the fact that it was a coin flip between the Ravens and the Seahawks.

12:40This is mostly not for you guys. This is for the audio audience of Seahawks fans that are going to be listening to this later on.

12:47There are real reasons to be concerned about Seattle.

12:50Like, I mean, the offense was what it was down the stretch of last year.

12:54You're changing offensive coordinators. I think requel and leaving is flying so under the radar on a national level, in my opinion.

13:00And I've brought it up before too. They were even, I know they dealt with injuries at times during the season, but

13:06they were very healthy for a team that relies on guys like DeMarcus Lawrence and Leonard Williams to be a big part of the reason why they're successful.

13:14I'm still 100% comfortable banking on this as like an 11 plus win team.

13:18And I like the divisions tough. The Rams are there.

13:21I don't really care. I think that stuff will even out in the end.

13:25I only have to sweat this twice over the course of the season.

13:28I'm not even that worried about them. I mean, again, it's, it comes down to like some tiebreaker stuff.

13:34I would have been more than comfortable taking them at two.

13:37The corner stuff is fine. The corner injuries are real and they're dealing with a lot of defensive back concerns over the

13:43course of training camp, independent of the guys they lost.

13:46I believe in Mike McDonald and I'm excited about the offense.

13:49You see me just trying to convince everyone that I feel better about the Seahawks.

13:53We're really just protecting ourselves. You guys don't understand what Seahawks fans were like this summer.

13:58None of you understand it. It was tough. I would have taken them at three if, if the bills were not on

14:04the board, but the bills to me just felt weirdly safer.

14:07Even if the Seahawks are the Superbowl winners, you would have taken the Seahawks over the Ravens.

14:12My heart wants to take the Ravens because I love Jackson, like one of my future children.

14:16Yeah. The Seahawks feel a little bit safer given that Mike McDonald is the best defensive play caller.

14:22All right. So I'm up at five now or five, right?

14:25Yes. Yeah. This is an easy one for me.

14:27I'm going to take the Detroit lions. Uh, uh, the lion's schedule is horrendous.

14:31Go look at the lions are favored in every game they play this year, except for like one or two.

14:37So this is a schedule choice. I do think the lions are going to be good, but if this is about who

14:43wins the most games in the regular season, I feel good about this.

14:47I came in here feeling smart as hell. Cause I thought y'all were going to leave the lions to me.

14:52Like I didn't dream. I didn't dream about having the Seahawks available.

14:55I think the lions are an amazing pick. I debated taking them a lot higher just because they're going to be scheduled merchants.

15:02Yeah, they're going to win like 13 games this year.

15:05I don't know if that means they're good. Stop trying to jinx me already.

15:09They're going to win like 11 games and I'm going to be happy with it.

15:13But I feel very good about you get 11 wins from your second pick.

15:17That's not bad at all. I picked the, I think I took the Ravens first overall last year.

15:22They're so embarrassing, but good luck with that. It'll be fun.

15:25I feel okay about it. I think the offense, the floor of the offense is extremely last year.

15:30They fired the offensive coordinator like six weeks into the season and they were the third highest scoring offense in the league or some bullshit.

15:37I mean, they were so good offensively and in a down year, the pressure is completely off when I don't have to

15:43worry about whether you're going to be a good player.

15:46They're going to win the Super Bowl. Just like, oh yeah, they're going to win 12 plus games.

15:51They get to play like the Giants and the Titans.

15:54This is gonna be great. The defense might be a flaming wreckage of a disaster.

15:58Sure. But I'm okay with that. I think the offense will be good enough.

16:02And with the schedule, that was, it was an easy choice for me.

16:06You're up at six, Derek. What are you thinking?

16:08This is the worst spot in the draft. I disagree.

16:11I don't know. I, to me, there were five teams where I was like, I would feel electric if I got any

16:17of these with my first two pick. And I think this next year, there are like eight teams here I feel pretty good about.

16:24But to me, it's a pretty precipitous drop. That being said, I think I'm going to take the Houston Texans.

16:30I just, I can read you like a book.

16:32I mean, listen, I believe that that defensive will be the best in the NFL again.

16:37And like, even if the offense is 8% better than it was last year, I think that that's enough for them to win 11 games again.

16:44I'm not saying you're wrong, but this, you, you just want to root for the Texans.

16:48Absolutely. If part of that is part of this exercise, listen, if part of this is going to be, I'm going to

16:55lose how I want to lose last year, I picked the Bengals and they f***ed me and I don't like that team.

17:01There's your first F bomb. The best part about this is I just know that there are landmines that you won't choose.

17:07Oh, so it does make the draft a little bit easier to predict.

17:11And the Bengals are the most obvious example. And so listen, you just never do that again.

17:15No, I won't do it again. And if I'm going to go down, I can go down with D'Amico Ryans and his defense.

17:22That's fine by me. I just, I can't remember an offense with this level of uncertainty going this high in the Wins Pool draft.

17:28And they probably shouldn't. It is a signal. They probably should.

17:32I'll be honest with you. It's going to be great sitting in the studio on Sundays, watching Derek, watch the fourth quarter of like a 1916 Texans game.

17:39So that's the problem is that even if the defense is phenomenal, the amount of just disgusting football games you may have to be invested in.

17:47You it's you're going to be torn in both two directions.

17:50It's you. You want to believe in the defense, but just you should have thought more about the in the moment experience

17:56that you're going to have to endure with this.

17:59It's not going to be good. All right. So Dave, you're up at seven.

18:02It's two teams I could pick. I think I know the two teams that you're picking between and I'm comfortable with either of them.

18:09And so I feel okay about this. I've been kissing their asses all off season, so I don't think it's a big mystery.

18:16I am. I'm going to, I could say, put my money with my, where my mouth is with all of these teams,

18:22but I really, but I believe in Denver. I believe in the Denver Broncos.

18:26That's shocking. That is not what I expected you to do.

18:29I believe in the Denver Broncos. I think like the defense is what it is and the offense is going to be better this year.

18:36Jalen Waddle go burr. Wow. That's surprising to me.

18:38I don't, I don't think it's, I don't think it's terribly surprising at all.

18:42I'll, I don't want to give away who I thought you were going to take because I'm going to wait, but there,

18:48well, it's the fact that you felt comfortable with the other team.

18:52We're just giving away all our, our strategy here, but I could have taken Philly.

18:56I assume that's what you think I'm talking about.

18:59No, no, no. That is what I should have done and would have been a lot more reasonable and rational.

19:04But again, if I'm going to go down with someone, it's not going to be Bo Nix.

19:09I'm see, see, see, here's, here's my, here's my take.

19:12I'm just, I did do that last year to be fair though.

19:15I didn't have the Broncos and it was really good for me.

19:19This is, this is not a, this as we've gotten deeper and deeper into the exercise, we've done it over multiple years.

19:25This is no longer about winning. This is about being comfortable with the way you are going to lose.

19:30See, that is 100% what this is about. And that's Bo Nix is orange.

19:34Jalen hurts at this point. And like, yeah, I don't, I don't care if you don't like the way it looks.

19:40Does it work? And it does work. I don't think they're going to win 14 games this year, but they are one

19:46of the most complete teams in the entire league.

19:49I appreciate you because Derek and I, and I say this with all the self-awareness in the world and understanding that is a fault of mine.

19:56Derek and I have a very hard time separating the aesthetic from the practical.

20:00Correct. And you do not have that problem. And it's almost a superpower in something like this.

20:05Like I, I envy it, but I also wouldn't want to live that way.

20:08Picture, picture a Sunday night and like Denver just did some Denver bullshit and maze and Derek are just like, they're not

20:15four touchdowns of the giants and then come back and win.

20:18Just infuriating, but I'll benefit from it. It's okay.

20:20All right. So talking about putting our money where our mouth is, I've done it all off season.

20:25Oh, the other. Oh, okay. Yeah. If I wasn't going to believe in it now, was it ever even real?

20:31I hate myself for doing this. I've hated myself for believing in them the entire summer.

20:35I'm going to take the Dallas Cowboys. Ooh, the degree to which this show has put the cause of the world.

20:41The Cowboys. Correct. It is gross. And like, I have, I have personal stakes in the Cowboys being good.

20:47It would be fun for me if they were, but like taking them eighth overall in an exercise like this coming off

20:53of last season is a bridge too far for me.

20:56I just can't. And you know what? What is the obvious choice?

20:59We've already, I put them on the table over the Eagles.

21:02Who else would I even pick? The other team that you hate, New England.

21:06Oh, absolutely not. Absolutely not. That's the landmine he's not going to step on.

21:10There's a couple where you did. You guys just know I'm not going to take them as high as you will, especially you.

21:16You took Seattle last year and it's why you won the wins pool because you saw that coming better than we did.

21:23So maybe you're right, but I just, I can't wholeheartedly believe in such a drastic change on, on one side of the ball.

21:29It's too much for me. This is I, we, we do this every preseason and it, and it kind of drives me nuts.

21:36The NFL changes so much from year to year.

21:38It changes so much. Somebody is going to be this year's commanders.

21:41That's going to happen. Some team that it was wildly successful.

21:44We, we just get into this place. And I think part of it is that you don't want to be the contrarian

21:51that's going against it because the idea of spitting in the face of a fan base that made the playoffs last year feels cruel and rude.

21:58But at the same time, that's just not the way the league works.

22:02Like there are going to be teams that were borderline.

22:04The Seahawks were not a dominant clear favorite to win the Superbowl last year.

22:08Like this happens every single year. And so just going based on what happened last season, there's a safety to that, but there's also limitations to that.

22:16Right around the time, I don't remember if it was Tucker craft or Luke Musgrave, but a tight end for green Bay

22:22caught a pass in that playoff game against Dallas where there was nobody else in the screen.

22:27Like there was no one standing by him. And when that happened, I was like, I'm never believing in this team again

22:33until, until somebody gives me a reason to. There's a chance I, this is one of those where if it goes poorly,

22:39the level of self-loathing that I will have to endure over the course of the season, there's a lot of risk involved in this.

22:46And it's not just about the results. It's about the process of actually having to live it every single week.

22:52But I've got so much shit out there on record at this point, like in for a penny, in for a pound.

22:58Let's do it. It's, it's like a fantasy football draft where you draft your guy in every league.

23:03Like that's what you're doing with the Cowboys. And I respect it.

23:06I've done it. I've committed to it. There's no walking it back now.

23:10All right, Derek, you're up at nine. What do you got?

23:13Nothing good. Um, man, you guys are so mean.

23:15There's still like five teams. I mean, there's plenty of teams.

23:19There's good teams, but all of them at this point, you're making a bet on something.

23:23Um, and it's not low enough in the order that you feel okay.

23:27Just taking bets like this is like, you really want to land it.

23:30I think because of some of the other teams that I've taken, I think I'm actually going to take the Los Angeles chargers.

23:37I think that's fair. They're there in like this little grouping that I had here.

23:41There's all of these teams have something, but something about the vibes about the chargers.

23:45Just feel better. I think I just like Mike McDaniel.

23:48It's a lot of it. Speaking of things we do every off season, Justin Derek watched the one Justin Herbert 65 yard

23:54throw and everything that's happened in the last five years ceased to matter to Quinton Johnston, who might be good now.

24:00It's I I'm going to be the person, even though I did draft Justin Herbert in every single fantasy league.

24:06It was kind of accidental. Like I don't believe in them to this extent, but I am.

24:10I'm trying to keep the chargers at arm's length as much as I can.

24:14I I'm just I'll let if it happens and I wasn't on the train.

24:18I'm fine living that way. I can't do it again.

24:21And listen, I don't even think that they're going to be an elite team or contender or anything like that.

24:27But this team consistently won 10 games with whatever they were doing the last couple of years.

24:32And I know that Jesse Minster was a big part of that.

24:35But if you can tell me we can supercharge the Justin Herbert offense, I think that they will get at least to that level again.

24:42I feel pretty good about that. It feels like a safe pick.

24:45Yeah, that famous last words potentially, but it feels like a fairly high floor pick chargers and safe being lumped in together.

24:51I'm talking about the wins they've had. They haven't reached the heights that they want to.

24:56They've been a playoff team. We were picking Super Bowl champion.

24:59No, that's a good point of a little bit lower down the rung.

25:03But Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert are going to win 10 games back back to back 11 win seasons.

25:08Right. Can do it again. You could do a lot worse than that.

25:12All right. So Dave, you're up. All right. You just pick 10.

25:15Y'all are making this easy. I didn't think I'd get both of them, but I'm ecstatic to take.

25:20Oh, oh, no, I guess I'll just take the MVP runner up who added AJ Brown to his team.

25:25Yeah, I'm cool with that. I'll take New England.

25:28This is OK with me because I was never going to pick them.

25:32I. So that's why I'm fine with this. I only didn't because I have Buffalo and that was kind of the tiebreaker.

25:38Oh, that's fair. I didn't think about that. Hmm.

25:40I get to root for Drake May and the Rams this year.

25:44Like, who's got it better than me? Yes, exactly.

25:46I had a pretty obvious choice of who I was going to take next and now I have to second guess it.

25:52They do only play twice, though. It's two games, dude.

25:55It's less than you think. And you're guaranteed a win.

25:58It's less than you think, but those games feel bad that week.

26:01Like when you roll up to the when you roll up looking at the best you can do is one and one.

26:08Yes. When you look at the Wins Pool spreadsheet and you've got like two auto losses, you're like this.

26:13This is how I know. This is how I know y'all aren't like gifted slackers because like a guaranteed B is great.

26:19Like, oh, I don't have to worry about this.

26:22I'm guaranteed a one in one. No, we're high rolling.

26:24No, I'm fine with that. I the two teams that I was picking between around ago, you did not mention either of those teams.

26:31And the fact that I have both of them now, because the team I'm going to take with my next pick is

26:37terrifying because they are the same team. You're going to.

26:40Oh, they have been the same team in every way over the last like three years.

26:45Part. This is partially schedule driven. Their schedule is also hot garbage.

26:48And I'm betting on that. And I do think they will be better.

26:52I'm picking the Cincinnati Bengals. I wish I could go back to January and tell you that you are going to get

26:58up here in front of so many wonderful people and the Tafts audience in general and back the Cowboys and the Bengals together at the same time.

27:05I just said a self-loathing that's going to happen with the Cowboys is extreme.

27:09I'm owning all of this now that I mean, OK, so it's the team that I covered for a decade and the

27:15team that employs all of my favorite players. So now that I have been too cowardly to draft them, they're both going

27:22to just go apeshit this year and win like 12 plus games and you're going to benefit.

27:26So congrats. Joe Burrow getting hurt is the only thing I'm worried about.

27:30And you should be worried about that. I mean, it happens like every 10 minutes, but I think that it feels a

27:36little bit sturdier this year than it has felt.

27:39I think the defensive improvements personnel wise, this is not winning the Super Bowl, by the way, this is a different exercise.

27:45So the idea of their defense being good enough to win the Super Bowl, we're not talking about that.

27:50I'm talking about them winning 10 games with a terrible schedule because they have the 18th best defense, Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase and T Higgins.

27:57And I do think that is possible. I'm just imagining Zach Taylor playing for field goals from the 35 yard line in overtime.

28:04I didn't think about that part. Yeah. In terms of like what it looks like, that part of it might not be very fun.

28:10I actually do think that they are in for like an 11 win season.

28:14So long as Joe plays like 14, 15 games.

28:17I don't know how it ends, but I feel decent about that sort of outcome.

28:21And this is like bad strategy, but because of what they did to me last year, it like they would have needed

28:27to, I think, go around for me to feel better.

28:30You absolutely can't do it. It would have just hurt.

28:33Speaking of teams that have hurt you, I'm curious what your next pick is going to be here.

28:38Yeah, I'm in a pretty weird position here. Um, man, it's, it's, it's, oh man, it's either a team I really don't enjoy.

28:44I think I have to take one team. I don't enjoy.

28:48I'll take the Philadelphia Eagles. Okay. That is surprising.

28:50I was, I don't feel good about it, but I do think, and maybe I'm gaming myself too much about like which

28:56to who, how many teams, how many teams, how many teams, how many teams, I have in each division and all that

29:02stuff, but I do think that there's a chance that the defense is really, really good.

29:07And I don't believe in the offense, but I don't know if I need to believe in the offense that much when

29:13they have four scheduled wins and maybe the best defense in football.

29:16I, I would have taken them if you hadn't like, don't, that doesn't make me feel better.

29:21Don't overthink it. You are more clear eyed than me.

29:24So the best one, you know, I wouldn't have because you are with me on the Jalen hurts thing.

29:29And I just, again, I'm just, I'm not going to fly in the face of things I've been saying all off season.

29:36Like we were, we had a fantasy draft last night.

29:38I refused to pick any Eagles offensive players because I was like, I either believe it or I don't.

29:44Yeah. I got Don Tavian wicks late and I'm elated.

29:46I was a little bit jealous about that. That is the one guy where it's like, I do have, I still have a candlelit for Don Tavian.

29:54I just think inevitably we're picking eight teams. There's going to be one or two of them.

29:59I don't feel that good about. And last year I did not feel very good about picking the Denver Broncos.

30:04And this is a similar ish sort of team to me.

30:08And so again, I don't feel great about it, but I'll take it.

30:11You didn't feel good about picking the team that went 14 and three.

30:15Well, going into it, I was like, it's the Bo Nix team.

30:18And I know the defense is good, but not elite.

30:21There's a lesson in there. Is there not? We'll see.

30:24I didn't feel good. I didn't feel good about the Bengals and then they won six games.

30:29So that's fair. All right. So you're up. No, we're reversing it now.

30:32So this was always the plan. We were going to reverse the order after the first 12 picks in order to make it seem fair.

30:39Even though I really don't care. Like the idea that we should do more snake drafts with this.

30:44This is a fake wins pool draft on a podcast.

30:47I do. Okay. The competitive integrity of this exercise is not important to me.

30:51When we're wagering dinner in LA, I don't really care that much.

30:54But like with, if I have to, you got the first pick, you give a shit.

30:59I mean, yeah, I'm looking for every advantage I can get.

31:02I mean, if we didn't reverse it, you wouldn't have had the advantage the whole time.

31:06Oh, wow. Shit. I'm arguing against myself. I don't like this.

31:10Cause I don't want to dress up like a Patriot Pat or whatever his name is.

31:14I don't know. It would be a terrible one.

31:17We'll get there. That's a tough one. Oh my God.

31:19That's actually one of the best ones. You have to dress like a minute man.

31:24I don't know if they'd let you bring the musket to radio row.

31:27No, that would be a tough sell. I just, you're not up by the way.

31:31He is signed up for my own punishment. No, I'm up again.

31:35Okay. You're up twice. And then we'll do, we'll just reverse the order for the next four rounds.

31:40So now you have two picks in a row.

31:42I think I'm going to bet on the best quarterback in football.

31:46I'm shocked that you didn't do this with your last pick.

31:49Yeah. I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm truly shocked. Maybe subconsciously I knew that I had two picks.

31:53You did not know that. I didn't know that.

31:56I'm going to say that I knew that now.

31:58I'm shocked that you didn't do this with your last pick.

32:02And I'm a little bit pissed off cause I was ready to take them.

32:05Uh, yeah, I'm going to take the Kansas city chiefs and there again, they're a team I feel weird about, but I,

32:12if we're talking about teams that I am backing, what I've said, I said a lot this off season, like anytime my

32:18homes is out there, I believe the offense will be fine.

32:21And I believe in the defense, like a lot of the young players are bringing in Spagnuolo has done this a million times before.

32:28So I don't love that. I already have a team in the, in the division, but like at this point, you're kind

32:34of just going to be stuck doing that. So I will bet on Patrick, my homes bouncing back.

32:39Yeah. I think that's completely reasonable thing to do.

32:41Yeah. I, and even if you look at the record last year, I think a lot of people are going to say,

32:48well, they were going to miss the playoffs even before my homes got hurt.

32:51Yes. The chiefs were a very frustrating team last year.

32:54If you look at the luck based numbers for them last season, it was the exact opposite spectrum of what had happened the previous couple of years.

33:02Their record in one score games last year is hilarious.

33:05It's horrible. Every single one of them. Is that like the biggest oscillation between winning every close game and losing?

33:10Oh, I'm sure there's plenty of examples of it.

33:13Because like the year before they, they were like 11 and 0 or something.

33:17People were trying to like boycott the NFL over the chiefs, like close game luck in 2024.

33:22And that's my other thing. I get why there are parts of the chiefs that feel like maybe the dynasty is over.

33:28I think it's just like, I think it's more likely the team that was the best in the NFL for six years

33:34is probably going to be good after one mediocre season.

33:37Keep talking. I don't like what might be happening.

33:39Are you on the phone? Hey, I have a quick question for you.

33:43So, um, is the chiefs vacillation, but just by the way, you're on speakerphone in front of 200 people at our live show in Lincoln hall in Chicago.

33:51So the chiefs going to what the chief score and one score games was what last year?

33:55What was it though? You know what it was like one in seven or something.

34:00It was like one in eight. Okay. Is that the, the, the difference between last year and the year before, is that

34:06the biggest one year swing you can remember? It is the biggest one year swing and it's not particularly close.

34:11Is that Bill? Yeah. Hey Bill, thank you for making me feel better about my pick.

34:16I figured you would know the answer. So I just wanted to call and get it just in.

34:21So we knew. Thank you. Enjoy the show. Thanks buddy.

34:24Appreciate you. That was about. I would like to thank Bill for making me feel significantly better about my pick.

34:29I already felt good about writing with Patrick Mahomes, but you know, I knew he would know that.

34:35Do you know how many people in your life would pick up the phone on the first ring without any sort of like notice or whatever?

34:42It's like, it's my mom and Bill Barnwell. Like the two people in my life that would actually do that.

34:47And be ready with obscure stats. Yes. I deeply love him.

34:51All right. So you, you pick the chiefs, which I think is the correct choice.

34:55And I absolutely would have picked them if you did not.

34:58Now we're in really painful territory. I just want to let you guys know right now, depending on it, other than like

35:04a precipitous fall, I cannot pick the Chicago bears.

35:07I just want you guys to know this. Like explain to me the upside of doing that.

35:11Put yourself. But if they win 14 games, I'm already enjoying it.

35:15If they win six, then I get twice. That's two F bombs, Katie.

35:18I can't do it. I cannot do it. This man understands me.

35:22I believe, I believe, I believe so much. I don't need to be invested here.

35:26That's how much I believe. I can't do it.

35:28I don't believe in the concept of an emotional hedge.

35:31It's not going to make you feel any better.

35:34That we are wired like very different people. I don't know.

35:37I talked about this before. Consolidate everything. All of the players I love, put them on my fantasy team, draft all the players.

35:43Screw it. I, picking them in the offenses draft, which has no stakes whatsoever except one bill, was hard for me.

35:49This is, what if I had to dress, who's the bear man?

35:53No, no, no. The guy with the claws. With the claws.

35:56He's called Bear Man. Yeah. The idea of having to dress like the bear claw guy at Radio Row.

36:01Like that's embarrassing for me on multiple different levels.

36:03There's no way. I could not do it. That part is worse if you have to do your own team.

36:09I couldn't do it. For that reason, I get what you're saying.

36:12I can't do that. Oh man. I can't do it.

36:15Yeah. Like people know you're a Bears fan too.

36:18So like if you were on Radio Row dressed like the bear man.

36:21It's already unprofessional. Yeah. It takes it to an entirely different level if I have to do that.

36:27I kind of want it now. Like I want to see that.

36:30Part of the reason that I'm doing this is that I'm stalling because I don't feel good about any of the next choices.

36:36All right. I already pick them in the offenses draft.

36:39And so I'm already invested in them. No, this is the tough spot.

36:43I was so excited about being able to pick the Chiefs and now I'm I really don't like any of the options that are left.

36:50I am going to choose the San Francisco 49ers.

36:52Ooh, it's it's the right pick. This is your version of the Eagles in some sense.

36:57Pretending the substation doesn't exist. You said all offseason.

36:59I don't know about the 49ers. And then I picked them in the offenses draft.

37:04Yes. It's if honestly the fact that what pick is this?

37:07This is the 14. Yeah, I feel okay about 14.

37:09The conversation was like 14. I think I'm okay with this.

37:13I also I feel a kinship with the roster as my body starts to break down.

37:17I think I just I feel closer to them as an idea as the every part on me stops working.

37:23Okay, so Evans being held out of practice as like a precautionary thing.

37:26Most days that's how I feel every single day you and the Niners both do your stretching like 15 minutes every morning.

37:32I know Derek was shaming us by backstage just talking about he stretches every single day as if he's not 10 years younger than all of us.

37:40I got a real self-care moment. I'm gonna go the Niners.

37:43I think that the offense even if we have so many concerns about going how they look going into it.

37:49We have such a floor with them when they're even moderately healthy.

37:52They were a top seven offense last year. I think just by DVOA, but if you look at other numbers they were

37:58even better than that especially when Brock Purdy got back and I the stripling stuff I'm kind of buying into it not

38:04in terms of like what he is in the hierarchy of NFL receivers, but compared to what they had last year I

38:11think he could be even like more dynamic and useful than some of those guys.

38:15He just has to in the in like what you're talking about if he's just like better than Kendrick Bourne.

38:20That's what I'm saying. That's what I'm saying. If he's just like if he's slightly more giddy up Juwan Jennings by the

38:27end of the season that's probably enough with Evans with Kittle back.

38:30I feel I don't feel good about this, but I think it's my favorite pick that's still remaining.

38:35Hey guys, it's Robert. Just a heads up. This is where the audio cuts out.

38:39So the picks discussed during this were Derek taking the Chiefs at 13 me taking the 49ers at 14 and then Dave taking the Bears at 15.

38:47You'll hear the end of that again. Apologies wish this didn't happen, but we're hopefully going to rectify it at some point this week.

38:54I have I have post pick clarity right now and I'm just thinking about I'm thinking about the defense.

38:59I'm thinking about this is going to be fun because I'm going to get to counsel you as you're working through these

39:05things because these are all experiences that I've had before.

39:08Just ignore it. Just every time that thought crosses your mind.

39:11Just think about what Colston Loveland was in the playoffs.

39:14That's all that's all you have to do. That's all I do.

39:17Every time this is true, by the way, every time I have sat there this offseason and thought about the depth chart

39:23or when the Kobe Bryant news came across the funniest part about that day was that so many people when it came

39:30out that he was not out for the season, we're like, oh, this isn't that bad.

39:34And on the show, I was like, this is a disaster.

39:37And it was a disaster. And so many things about the defense are disasters.

39:41And every time I think about them, I just go back to the dozen or so conversations I had with people in

39:47the NFL this offseason about Ben Johnson. And it soothes me like what they say.

39:51I don't know if you guys saw this. I tweeted it out the other day.

39:56It was very funny because I said something on the show about Declan Doyle being a member of the Ben Johnson coaching tree.

40:02And people were like, well, actually, he's part of the Sean Payton coaching tree.

40:06And then like three days later, Ben Johnson or Declan Doyle had a profile written of him on the Baltimore Ravens official website.

40:12The things he said about Ben Johnson in that profile are the things that I would reserve for like my father and

40:19the thing and the impact he had on my life and how he was a great man and how everything he taught

40:25me is why I am the person that I am, except it was Declan Doyle talking about Ben Johnson.

40:30So every time I get a little bit worried about what Cam Lewis is going to look like, I find real comfort

40:36in knowing that Ben Johnson is the person that he is.

40:39I feel better. Thank you. That's it. See, whenever this comes up, I will be there to help you and there to counsel you.

40:46Derek, you are up again. You are you have the first pick in these rounds.

40:50We're at 19 now. Yeah. And I think 16.

40:53Thanks, mom. Dave talked about the Jaguars. I'm already emotionally invested in them and I think they will be good.

40:59I think I'm going to swing for the fence a little bit.

41:02I think I'm going to take the Minnesota Vikings.

41:04Wow. Wow. Can you imagine a Packer fan listening to the Bears and Vikings go off the board ahead of Green Bay?

41:11They won what? Eight, nine games last year with the worst quarterback play I've ever seen.

41:15Kyler Murray at worst is an average NFL quarterback.

41:18Justin Jefferson, when he has anyone but J.J. McCarthy playing quarterback, averages like 100 catches, 1600 yards and 10 touchdowns.

41:23We're doing that. I see North. They will be electric.

41:26This is just a preview of what my life is going to feel like when Derek is talking about just talking himself into Kyler Murray instantly.

41:33He's never been a bad player. And I just believe that like he wasn't great last year.

41:38He was okay. He wasn't. But even it wasn't as bad as people say that it was.

41:43He's better than J.J. McCarthy. He's not any worse than Sam Darnold.

41:46There is a. Oh, they didn't like that one.

41:49This is this is a controversial stance of his.

41:51Does anybody remember Sam Darnold playing football before this year?

41:54Yes, it was mostly not that good until the Minnesota.

41:57I'm not letting you do that. Yes. And Minnesota, I'm saying the Minnesota year was electrified.

42:01Sam Darnold was good that season. Yes. And Kyler Murray was better than that for like 80 percent of his career.

42:07Kyler Murray was also like statistically. Go look it up.

42:10Kyler Murray was that good in Arizona in 2024.

42:13Yes. Yeah, we're going to talk about that tomorrow.

42:15The numbers are actually weirdly similar. I'm mainly just mad.

42:18Like I want my bit to be that I like the Vikings.

42:21And Derek just one up to me and took him way before I would have.

42:26This is about the range where I had the Vikings.

42:28I have other teams. Just talk me through Vikings over Packers.

42:31Just talk me through that. You're you're trying to convince yourself that Kyler Murray is good.

42:36Jordan Love is just good. Yes, he's incredible. The Packers floor is higher.

42:40I'm pretty sure the Packers are going to win even in a disaster season.

42:44Eight games, a disaster season for the Vikings might mean like six or five.

42:47But I do think that there's a chance that the Vikings are really good on offense and defense.

42:52I cannot get there at all with the Packers.

42:55I do not think the Packers defense has that sort of talent or defensive play calling.

43:00The Vikings. I was about to tell you, the Packers defensive talent is actually better than the Vikings.

43:05But they have Ryan Flores. I say this because I was just staring at the Vikings depth chart upstairs because I was prepping for tomorrow's podcast.

43:12It's a dark situation. Yes. Brian Flores, we should build his Hall of Fame bust now if this is a top eight defense again, which it might be.

43:20And I don't even think they'll be top eight necessarily.

43:23They're like 12. I can totally see that. I just think that the offense has a much higher gear to them than they showed definitely last year.

43:30And I think they can even be better, much better than they were in 2024.

43:34There's an argument for that. I just think there's a lot of guesswork involved.

43:38There is definitely a lot of guesswork. I just think that the bar has been set so, so low for them because

43:44the Vikings offense last year was the worst we'd ever seen under Kevin O'Connell.

43:48And Kyler Murray was the worst he'd ever been.

43:51And I think it's easy to be like, well, those two things will just stay the same.

43:56I'm just betting that that's for 85 percent of both of their careers before that.

44:00It was much, much better than it was last year.

44:03I will give them each a mulligan. I think they're going to be pretty good.

44:07This is genuinely shocking for you to pick them over Green Bay just solely based on the quarterback.

44:12This is also a reminder that your sizeism thing does not apply.

44:15Kyler Murray is an exception to this rule. Yes.

44:18You don't watch Kyler Murray with disgust the way that you walk in Red's Young.

44:22Because he's talented. Most of the other small players are not that talented, especially a quarterback.

44:27Kyler does have like an elite trait for a guy his size.

44:30I'm not dismissing that. I'm just saying he is the exception.

44:33He is the exception. All the other small guys.

44:36Derek's like they should live. Most positions I have like one.

44:39Like running back, Devon HN. Unbelievable player. I absolutely love him.

44:42He's like 185 pounds. There's one slot every year.

44:44Yeah, one slot. There's one guy. In each position.

44:47We're going to build that team this year. We can do it.

44:50That's a bit middle of the season. Bauer, write it down.

44:53Who is the one exception for size in every position in the NFL for Derek?

44:57We know it's Kyler Murray and Devon HN. That's some really great late May content right there.

45:02Now we're going to do a week one in the recap.

45:05All right, so I'm up again. I would pick the Packers here if I didn't already have the Lions.

45:11So just want to be very clear about that as Packers fans get more progressively pissed off.

45:15I'm going to pick the team you were going to pick.

45:18Sure. Because of all the teams that are left.

45:21They're the best team on the board. They're the best team.

45:24They're the best. I think the Packers, you can make an argument.

45:27But again, I'm not going to do that with the NFC North.

45:31I have no other teams in this division. I'm going to pick the Jacksonville Jaguars.

45:35I don't feel super great about the Jags just overall heading into the year.

45:39It's flimsy. It's flimsy. The offensive line stuff is real.

45:42The defense played at the highest level it possibly could last year.

45:45I really do. I mean, I really like the coaching staff.

45:48I think that's also part of it. Even if the talent leaves something to be desired in some important spots, I think

45:54that the overall, like what they have on offense, what they have on defense maximizing the players, I believe in that.

46:00So I feel like they're the last team other than Green Bay and like a very hard line tier for me before

46:06we get to a whole subset of teams that I would feel disgusting having a draft.

46:11And we will in a second. So I'm going to go with the Jags.

46:15The Jags are the only team left to me other than Green Bay.

46:19Just keep saying that. Maybe one other team where I feel like they have the ceiling for like a top five to top three offense.

46:26The Jags have that. There's no one else other than the Packers that's left here.

46:30Other than one, maybe one team that I could say that about.

46:33I broke my list up into tiers and Jacksonville is like a whole tier higher than everybody else left on the board.

46:39And what about the Packers? Yeah, I have. There's too many questions with the Packers for me to like, what's my pick right now?

46:46Are we going here now? Yeah. OK. Having said that, yes, I dropped the Packers a tier because of the injuries and

46:52the offensive line and so many other things. The Packers are a fun thing that happens during a draft.

46:58Like last night, you look at the board and you're like, I can't take Alec Pierce here.

47:02He hasn't had a training camp. And then three rounds later, you're like, come on, Alec Pierce, just get to me.

47:08Let's go. And that's how I feel about Green Bay.

47:11And I'm thrilled to take Green Bay here because they are not.

47:14I know. I know. We're in Chicago. You already took the Bears.

47:18Let's see. I'm just kidding. I'm kidding. Everybody is telling that any goodwill you had bought immediately is gone immediately.

47:23This is also this reminds me of drafting. Like, I am a caricature of myself.

47:28I drafted Jordan Tyson last night and I was like, oh, I'll just stash him on IR.

47:32I'm stashing Green Bay on IR until Micah Parsons is healthy.

47:35Oh, did our Packers at 18 is pretty awesome.

47:38It's pretty good. It's fantastic. That's really, really good.

47:41This is amazing value. And like when I love the editorializing in the big section, the frowny face.

47:46Yes. When Parsons comes back, Tucker Craft is talking about playing week one.

47:49Like at this draft slot, this is phenomenal value for Green Bay.

47:53I agree with that. Again, the only reason I didn't take them is because I already had the Lions, but I feel

47:59okay about the Jags at 17 as well. All right.

48:02Derek, you're up again, buddy. That to me was the tear break.

48:05The treks are left. Typically, we cut it off at 15.

48:08That's most years we've done this. We decided to extend it a little bit because we thought that being invested, if you

48:14didn't listen to the other versions of this, we used to pick a group of bad teams and we just didn't want to live that way again.

48:22So we just decided to extend it to 24.

48:24It sucks so bad. But we did not really consider the fact that after you hit a certain line, you are going

48:30to have to pick some teams that even if they are not markedly or nominally bad, you don't feel good about yourself by after picking them.

48:38Having said that, I think I'm going to take the Tampa Bay Bucs.

48:41That's fair. I've said all offseason, I kind of believe in the defense.

48:45Like, not to the extent that they will be elite, but that they will be significantly better than they have been the last couple of years.

48:52And I just think that like, I think their offense is probably imperfect.

48:56I don't know how good Zach Robinson is going to be as a play caller for them.

49:01But last year, they started off incredibly hot. And when that offensive line is healthy, it can make a lot of other things just look pretty good.

49:08They are a special line. And games just win the division.

49:11I think I understand that as the thought process here.

49:14They probably should have been higher. I just thought it'd be funny to put all the NFC South teams in a row when I was ranking them.

49:22Make them 21, 22, 23, 24. That's what I did.

49:25I was mostly going for a bit just for myself and how I was ranking them.

49:29But I do think the Bucs are probably the right pick here.

49:33I just think that because last year ended so stinky, I think it's easy.

49:36And I think we've been questioning bowls for a couple of years now.

49:40And nobody thinks that Baker is like this elite quarterback.

49:43But I just think that the roster is like still relatively healthy.

49:46And I do feel good about some of the young players they're bringing in.

49:50If the Bucs offensive line is okay, I think they could be a much better team than we give them credit for.

49:56Like they were abysmal to watch in the second half of last year.

50:00But there are reasons why that happened that you can like you feel good about heading into a new season.

50:06I would I would have taken them with my next pick.

50:09Like I'm going to stick in the NFC South.

50:11And why I'm very excited about this pick is that when we were doing the NFC South preview, we do a category for all the teams.

50:19And it's what is keeping you up at night about this team?

50:22And the only team I couldn't figure out an answer to was the Saints.

50:26Because in my mind, it's like, how bad could it be for you to feel bad?

50:30Right? It's like what could happen this same season where you're just like, man, I'm really disappointed.

50:35If the Saints won like six games, be like, I mean, that's fine.

50:39I don't. But I so at this point, getting them at 20 or whatever, I kind of am in the same boat where I'm just like, well, whatever.

50:47Like if they win seven games, I'm not that disappointed.

50:49But I also get to chase the high of them being like the team du jour and them being the fun team this year.

50:56And so I'm I'm going to ride with the Tyler Shuck experience.

51:00I enjoyed it last year and I'm ready to try to enjoy it again.

51:03So I'm going to go with the Saints. I had the Saints last year and I did not enjoy it at all.

51:10I mean, you picked them as a bad team and it's the only reason you didn't have to be the Chiefs guy.

51:16That is true. What are you talking about? The Saints were a fine bad team experience last year.

51:21They were pretty bad until December. I'll give him that.

51:24Until December. The Saints. I felt like like I was about to go to the gallows and the Saints were like a pardon.

51:30Like at the last minute, I was like, oh, my God, Tyler Shuck.

51:34Thank you for saving me at the last minute.

51:36I don't want to. I don't want to risk that again.

51:39I'm fine letting you take them. All right. So this is 21.

51:43You're up at 21, Dave. This is pick 21.

51:4521. So this is my last pick. Your last pick.

51:48No, it's your one more. You'll get 24. You'll get 24.

51:51You're the last pick. This is the last pick of the seventh round.

51:55And then Derek will start again. Yes. For round eight.

51:58They're on the list. Oh, man. There is nothing I would hate more than watching Aaron Rodgers do this this year.

52:04Having my faith tied to watching him play the way that he plays right now, I refuse.

52:08There's no way. You know what? For similar reasons, and you guys can listen to it tomorrow.

52:13We did the AFC South today. And there's a floor in Indianapolis that you can talk yourself into.

52:18So part of the reason I took the Saints is that after recording the show today, I didn't think either of you

52:24would take the Colts, and I thought I could get them with my next pick.

52:29I might despise myself in a month, but if Daniel Jones is as healthy as everybody keeps telling me he is, Jonathan Taylor still kicks ass.

52:36I don't think this will be an outright abysmal team.

52:39They might not be the best team in the AFC at the midpoint of the season, but...

52:43I really regret my choices now. I don't think they'll be awful.

52:47And so, I mean, I have to keep reminding myself this is pick 21.

52:51Like, this is a perfectly valid place to take the Colts, and that's what I will do.

52:55I really... The Saints probably would have been there at 23.

52:59I really should have waited, because now I'm sad.

53:01I thought I was going to be able to get the Colts at 23.

53:05As far as teams that are left, that's probably the highest upside that you can get.

53:10Absolutely. Like, if Daniel Jones is healthy, and the offensive line looks good, and Pierce comes back healthy by, you know, early

53:16October, it's like, okay, this could be a pretty good team again.

53:19Oh, I regret that. I don't know if I believe that.

53:22But at least, like, that's on paper somewhere. It's okay.

53:25Jordan Tyson will be back eventually. But it's not about that.

53:28It's about the next choice I have to make.

53:31Did you pick the Saints because you were gaming the system?

53:34Yes. Yes. I thought I was going to be able to get the Colts coming back around.

53:38I've learned through the... Because you had to shat on them for half an hour today.

53:43We were pretty mean to the Colts today. Yes.

53:45Through the many drafts we had done. You clearly didn't believe any of it.

53:49I came out of it, though. No. But it's pick 21.

53:52You've got to pick somebody. No, you guys are liars.

53:55They have a ceiling that is higher than anybody left you can take.

53:59Through the many drafts that we've done, I've realized that even if I can read you two, trying to game it is not a worthwhile exercise for me.

54:07I'm not going to do that. Looking forward to it.

54:10So I'm up with my last pick. You're the last pick of the last round.

54:14I will take the Pittsburgh Steelers. Thank you. Thank you.

54:17Thank you. All right. There we go. I don't believe in the ceiling at all, really.

54:21I don't believe in them whatsoever. But I will take them.

54:24Aaron Rodgers. I'm paraphrasing Derek. Aaron Rodgers at this stage, I don't know what the ceiling is.

54:29But like, I really do believe in that offensive line.

54:32I think bringing in Pittman and Jeremy Bernard, who I know it's preseason, looks awesome with the ball in his hands.

54:38And that's all that Aaron Rodgers is going to do.

54:40If Jeremy Bernard gets all of the Kenny Gainwell touches from last year, I know they play different positions.

54:46But like, that's a proposition that I'm willing to live with relative to where we're at in the draft.

54:51And I do think the defense can be like pretty good again.

54:55And so I don't think it's going to be football that I want to watch.

54:59I might just have to turn it off and hope that they win.

55:02This is a fine choice. I think right now.

55:05They feel the safest to me, weirdly. The Steelers defense is easily the best unit left on the board.

55:10Yeah, probably. Like by far. And so I completely understand that as part of the thought process.

55:15What does it say that the Steelers have made the playoffs?

55:18I think, is it two years in a row or three?

55:21We got a Steelers fan in the house. Is it two years in a row or three?

55:26Two. But also like five out of the last six years, they make the playoffs.

55:30Hang the banner. Well, for this exercise, I will.

55:33That's pretty good for me. We're talking about winning games, not championships.

55:36If my eighth pick gets me nine wins, cash it.

55:39All right. I really, really wish I had picked the Colts with my last pick.

55:43Because I think the Saints, would you have picked the Saints over the Steelers?

55:47I'm talking to Derek. Oh, sorry. Me? Absolutely not.

55:50I think it's easier to see the ceiling with them, but I just, it's, I don't know if I believe it as

55:56much as, to me, picking a team du jour in the NFC South feels like a fool's errand.

56:01It's the NFC South. I really thought I was going to be able to get the Colts coming back around.

56:06So I have, well, this is, so yes. So I have, I'm between two teams here.

56:11One is in its division that I just picked a team in.

56:14And I think that would be a bad choice.

56:17The other is a team that is terrifying. Like I, who, if you guys.

56:21Oh, they're all terrifying. I was like, find me to feel good teams still sitting out there.

56:25But which team in the NFL over the last month would you say has the most rancid vibes about it?

56:31Like what is coming out of their training camp and what people are saying about it?

56:36The Browns don't count. The Browns don't count. A team that theoretically has like actual hopes to win football games this year.

56:42It's Washington. It's Washington by far. And yet. I'm going to take the commanders.

56:46Oh no. I just can't. I don't want to take the Panthers because I just took the Saints.

56:51Yeah. That makes sense. I mean, I guess I took the Cowboys too.

56:54But, but I, that makes more, but taking two teams in the same division makes sense when you can convince yourself they might both win 12 games.

57:02When you are hoping they both win nine games, that's, I think that's a tougher proposition.

57:06I also just think I'm picking the best quarterback that I think is left.

57:10Jay Daniels is a good player. And so I, that I feel comfortable doing that.

57:15It could be an absolute horror show. It could be open to that, but I, I don't like any of the other

57:21teams that I would be on the pick. I'm not saying Washington's going to go 12 and five, but it perked me

57:27up a little bit when I thought about how good Stefan Diggs was last year.

57:31And like Stefan Diggs and Terry McLaurin is, you know, they qualify for the early bird special at this point, but like,

57:37that's, that's not a bad receiver duo. And Jaden didn't even have Laramie Tunsil in 2024.

57:42So like, if I'm, if I'm trying to talk myself into some shit at the end of this draft, I don't think that's crazy.

57:49I could have picked the giants, I guess. I wouldn't have felt good about that either.

57:53I don't think you want to do that either.

57:56When you get down to this part of it, there's just, nothing's going to make you feel good.

58:01All right. Is it the last pick? Last pick of the draft?

58:04I have one team remaining on my board. Well, yeah, we are.

58:07There were 24 picks. That makes sense. Shut up.

58:10I thought that sounded really profound in the moment.

58:12I ranked 24 teams and I have one more.

58:15Okay. I do feel good. Like all my, all my teams, even my like mid teams got picked.

58:20So like we were pretty well aligned here. So I can't say I feel good about this, but I didn't take another

58:26team in their division and I'm, he's, he's my guy.

58:29So I'm going to ride with Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers.

58:32Okay. See what happens. I can't say I feel great about it, but when we were getting down here and no one

58:39was going to be happy about their choices. No, I do think.

58:42I don't know. I think, I think six wins is the Panthers five or six wins is probably their floor.

58:48I think of the teams remaining, they are the healthiest overall roster.

58:51I have expressed my concerns about the quarterback, but like quarterback aside, I think they're pretty clearly the healthiest roster other than that.

58:57I agree. I'm making the exact opposite choice. Yeah.

59:00By picking the commanders over the Panthers, I'm making the exact opposite choice where I believe in the quarterback and his ability to bounce back.

59:07And I don't believe in so many other things about the roster.

59:10You have Davis, you're, you're betting on a decent football team.

59:13Like, and Bryce Young isn't embarrassing. I mean, Bryce Young is fine, but it's, you're betting on the rest of the roster here, which I completely understand.

59:21I'm just trying to figure out like how bad I should feel about myself.

59:25Did you see Katie's editorializing? Yes. Thanks mom. I am sad.

59:28I wish I would have picked in the Colts, but that's okay.

59:31Cowboys, Bengals, back to back is fantastic. I've set myself up.

59:34Cowboys, Bengals, Niners. Like I have set myself up for Jags.

59:37I've set myself up for some real disappointment. Seeing it, seeing it all laid out for you is, it's humbling.

59:43So yeah, something, something about seeing Chiefs and then Vikings is makes me feel weird.

59:47It didn't feel that weird to me picking the Vikings in the moment, but for some reason seeing the Chiefs there feels weird.

59:54All right. Who do you guys feel best about as you look at these teams?

59:58Oh no. No one's, no one thinks me. What's that?

60:01Oh, I know. We just said. Wait, what? I looked at it.

60:04Seasons don't go the same. I looked at it and I was like, man, I'm, I'm really banking on last year or

60:10this year playing out exactly the same as last year, which is probably, probably bad actually.

60:15I, this will, this will be the year. No matter how it goes.

60:18That I went in on, I chose to believe in the Cowboys.

60:22It sure is. This will be the year where it happened.

60:25And I think it will come with profound regret.

60:27But I, I'm leaning into it. Maybe this is what we were waiting on this entire time.

60:32You know, maybe the Cowboys just had to win you over to, to get over that hump.

60:37I would think about the exact opposite way. I've also not realized.

60:40In fact, now I'm in means it's never been more over.

60:43Well, I've also not realized that because we've done so many drafts, we've done this, the offensive draft and the defensive draft.

60:50What we're actually rooting for is so tangled that I'm not even sure what I want on a given week.

60:55This is priority, but it's still a lot. If I have to buy you dinner, I'm not going to worry that much about it.

61:02It's going to go horribly. I already know it.

61:04All right. That's all we got. So thank you to everybody for coming.

61:08Thank you for listening. We're incredibly excited about the season.

61:11We'll be out there in a little bit and we'd love for you guys to come say hi.

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