The Athletic Football ShowSource
The Athletic Football Show artwork
PodcastFrom The Athletic Football Show

Week 1 Preview

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

44 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 10, 2026
Published
Thu, September 10, 2026
13
Player insights
13
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownBaker MayfieldBryce YoungCarnell TateD.J. MooreDak PrescottDeVonta SmithJa'Marr ChaseJosh AllenKyler MurrayLamar JacksonPatrick MahomesTee Higgins
Player analysis

Player insights

13

A.J. Brown

PositiveProjection12:21

The source identifies A.J. Brown as a top-five wide receiver in the league, noting that his health and availability are critical factors for the Eagles' offensive success.

Insight page

Baker Mayfield

PositiveValue28:15

The source feels better about the Buccaneers now that Baker Mayfield's contract situation is settled, noting that he often thrives when he can find a slight to amplify.

Insight page

Bryce Young

NegativeUsage21:22

The source notes that the Panthers' offensive line is heavily banged up, creating uncertainty about their ability to run the ball effectively in week one against the Bears.

Insight page

Carnell Tate

PositiveBreakout40:35

Carnell Tate is a potential breakout candidate for Week 1 against the Jets, as he could see significant target volume due to the Jets' shaky cornerbacks.

Insight page

D.J. Moore

PositiveProjection9:34

The source suggests that DJ Moore will be a key contributor for the Bears offense, noting that he should be effective against the Texans' secondary, specifically mentioning Kamari Lassiter and Derek Stingley Jr.

Insight page

Dak Prescott

PositiveProjection31:47

The source remains optimistic about the Cowboys' offense, noting that Dak Prescott is capable of navigating pressure and that the unit is expected to be one of the best in the league.

Insight page

DeVonta Smith

PositiveUsage12:32

The source expresses curiosity about DeVonta Smith's potential workload in the Eagles' new offense, questioning if he is capable of handling a high target share and if the team will lean on him heavily.

Insight page

Ja'Marr Chase

NegativeUsage28:07

The source notes that Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins draw significant attention from opposing defenses, often forcing teams into two-high safety looks against the Bengals.

Insight page

Josh Allen

NegativeMatchup10:56

The source notes that Josh Allen has historically struggled in Houston, citing an 0-4 record in the city during his career. The Texans' defensive front is highlighted as a major challenge that has consistently dismantled the Bills' offense, leading to high sack totals and poor performance in previous matchups.

Insight page

Kyler Murray

PositiveUsage23:38

The source is excited to see the Kyler Murray-led Vikings offense, specifically curious if they will incorporate designed runs or scrambles to keep defenses honest.

Insight page

Lamar Jackson

PositiveProjection35:35

The source expects Lamar Jackson to look healthy and good, with curiosity surrounding how quickly he adapts to the new Ravens offensive approach.

Insight page

Patrick Mahomes

PositiveProjection42:54

Patrick Mahomes is fully healthy and set to make his season debut on Monday Night Football against the Broncos.

Insight page

Tee Higgins

NegativeUsage28:07

The source notes that Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins draw significant attention from opposing defenses, often forcing teams into two-high safety looks against the Bengals.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

577
0:00Welcome to The Athletic Football Show brought to you by the US Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card.
0:05I'm Robert Mays. Week 1 is officially here. Niners Rams is tonight.
0:08Our recap from Patriots Seahawks is available in your podcast feed, is available on our YouTube channel.
0:12A lot of excitement swirling around week 1 and that's what we dug into today.
0:17Our week 1 preview over the years has always been different than the other previews that we do over the course of the season.
0:23This is mostly just a celebration of football being back and the things we are most excited to watch on the week 1 slate.
0:30What are some unit matchups that we're curious about?
0:32What are some teams that we can't wait to see what it actually looks like after we've speculated about who they might
0:38be on offense or defense over the course of the season?
0:41As Derek brought up, who's the rookie that's just good right away?
0:44These are the things that we have to sort through in week 1 and so that's what we talked about today.
0:50All of the different considerations as we get to open up week 1 NFL football again for the first time.
0:55Looking forward to that. Enjoy this conversation. Me, Dave and Derek, let's get to it right now.
1:00We made it. We've got football starting in about 5 hours.
1:03Recording this on Wednesday afternoon. By the time you guys are listening to this, the recap of Patriot Seahawks will be available
1:09wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube. So obviously a lot of anticipation today.
1:13We're going to do our version of a week 1 preview today.
1:16This show over the last couple years has looked different than a traditional preview show might look.
1:21In part because we haven't seen these teams at all.
1:23And so digging into whatever speculation there might be about what they might do.
1:27I've never enjoyed that version of a week 1 preview.
1:30I'd rather just talk about what we're excited to watch this weekend and what we are most curious about as it relates to these games.
1:37So that's what we're going to do today. Just a smattering of thoughts, curiosities, things that you want maybe an answer on
1:43from a lot of the games that we're going to be watching during week 1.
1:47I mean we do two months of trying to figure out what these teams are going to look like.
1:52And then like trying to do it one more time through a very specific lens of like what will it also theoretically
1:58look like against this other team that we don't know enough about.
2:01I think this is a more fun way to do it because we also do, by this point in the calendar, the
2:07last like two to three weeks leading up to the season, it's pure excitement.
2:11It's like let's go. Like let's get this off the starting.
2:14That's where I'm at right now. I'm just excited to watch football and I'm hopefully going to channel that enthusiasm into the conversation that we're having today.
2:21I've been there and also a third of these results are going to be Fugazi.
2:25It's not going to matter. We were so, and I regret nothing, but we were so excited about that Steelers Jets game.
2:31It's such a perfect classic week 1 representation. Can we actually kind of start there before we even get into the stuff that we're excited about?
2:38I do think one like overarching thing that's always fun about week 1 is like which results are going to be the ones that are completely fake?
2:46Because of the five games that feel fake or insane, one of them becomes real.
2:50Because last year we had the Colts. It was the Colts.
2:53It was the Colts. Yes. And last year we had the Raiders beating the Patriots week 1 and Gino looked good.
2:58He threw for like 400 yards. That was not.
3:01None of that was real. The Patriots went to the Super Bowl and the Raiders were horrible.
3:05The Vikings-Bears game week 1, people were like, is J.J.
3:08McCarthy better than Caleb Williams? By the end of the season, or by now, J.J.
3:12McCarthy is third on his own team and people are like, Caleb Williams might be the next thing.
3:17The Jets-Steelers game, which you just brought up, which like, we were like, oh my God, both of these offenses, it's what
3:23they wanted it to be and all this stuff.
3:25And that was completely fake. And then you had the Colts throttling the Miami Dolphins.
3:29And that one turned out real because like the Colts were really good for eight weeks until Daniel Jones got hurt.
3:35And that kind of did look like the end of the Tuatunga Bailoa era.
3:39And by the end of the season, that's exactly what it was.
3:42Well, the whole point is that there's no way to predict which of those.
3:46Right. Yeah. I'm not going to predict them. I just, yeah.
3:49That's going to be something we just have to sort through.
3:52Yeah. In both the week one preview and then, we should do after week two, don't we, Beller?
3:57Is this real midweek episode? Yeah. We will do that again.
4:00I mean, that's one of the things we've done consistently over the years every single season.
4:04It's such a good episode. It's so fun. It's so good to like lay down those markers while knowing that you can't
4:10possibly know if it's real or not. Of course not.
4:13So, but we will have that conversation. But those considerations about, all right, how much of this is actually meaningful and how
4:19much of this is just week one bullshit. It's an annual tradition.
4:22I mean, it's one of my favorite parts of the start of any NFL season.
4:26I can't remember which year it was, but I want to say I was at the ringer.
4:31And so it might've been the 2016 season. Was that the year that Trevor Simeon started 4-0 for the Broncos?
4:36Is that 17? Is that 17? Yeah. That was the year where there was part of my brain that was like, I
4:42wish we wouldn't have to discuss any of this over the first four weeks.
4:46I wish we all collectively agreed in the football content space for the first four weeks of the season, no one said a word about anything.
4:53And we could just pick it up in week five.
4:56But obviously that is not how any of this works.
4:58Another one that always sticks in my mind. In 2021, the Jameis Winston Saints beat the Packers 38-3.
5:03Aaron Rodgers won the MVP that year. Like, it was just like, I don't know.
5:07It was the 16 Broncos. I'm sorry. But yes, buyer beware of anything.
5:11That was my first year at the ringer. That was why, yeah.
5:14I was just thinking, daydreaming about two years ago, week one, the Bucs trounced the Jaden Daniels commanders.
5:19That was a weird team, right? It took them a little while to figure things out.
5:23That offense was so fake over the first month.
5:26And I think that's also part of this is that even if we can acknowledge that the week one results are often
5:32very fake, we're going to extend this further into the year where teams are still figuring it out.
5:36And I honestly think, and this might be just anecdotal and recency bias, but it feels like with so many of these
5:42teams, and I think just the sheer nature and turnover that we're seeing with the play callers, there's going to be more
5:48examples of this this year where, man, just give it a few weeks.
5:52Like there's just so many new offensive systems, so many new defenses.
5:55I honestly feel like the first month of the season might be as fake as it's ever been because of the turnover that we're talking about.
6:02And so just keeping that in mind as we're trying to digest the first four weeks or so is worthwhile.
6:08Let's dig into some specifics. Let's talk about some things that we are most excited, curious about with the week one slate.
6:14David, kick us off. What was the first thing that you wrote down when you were talking about what you wanted to watch with this group of games?
6:21I mean, it's basic, but I think that's okay.
6:24And I'll actually, I'll zig where you might think I zag because it would be easy to say Bills-Texans should be the Sunday night game.
6:30But I kind of love that it's just in the noon window as just this game where it's like, no, you have to pay attention to this.
6:38You have to find a way to have this on a screen because it's going to be bonkers.
6:43And on top of that, in addition to it just being two teams with a lot of big aspirations playing each other
6:49in week one, this game is in Houston, which has been a horror show for the Buffalo Bills over the time that Josh Allen has been there.
6:56Some real great Josh Allen moments in Houston. We had that horrendous game two years ago, just the disgusting game he played two years ago.
7:03The one where Sean McDermott lost his mind about late game strategy?
7:06Was that the one two years ago? And the one where, I mean, Josh Allen's numbers in that game two years ago.
7:12He was 9 of 30. Oh, he's a disgusting football game.
7:15It's probably since he became good, that might be the worst game that he's ever played.
7:19It was unwatchable. They were so bad in that game.
7:22And then they were playing against the Texans in Houston when he tried to pitch the ball back to his fullback in the playoffs in 2019.
7:29Please don't forget just last year. I forgot about that one.
7:32That when they sacked him like seven times on a Thursday night last year.
7:36And that was at home. Yep. Eight times. No, that was in Houston, wasn't it?
7:40I think that game was in Buffalo last year, wasn't it?
7:43I don't remember where it was, but I also did have Texans Bills for this exact reason.
7:47I mean, an eight sack. It wasn't Houston. It wasn't Houston.
7:50You're right. For whatever reason, I thought that game was in Buffalo last year.
7:54It doesn't go well for the Bills when they go down there.
7:57They're 0-4 in the Josh Allen era in Houston, and they're 1-6 in Houston just since the Texans were founded.
8:03Why do you think that the Texans defense gives them so many problems?
8:06I think especially over the last couple of years, the Bills offense has become about like, we're going to run the ball.
8:12We're going to insulate the offenses in certain ways.
8:15And we're not protecting Josh Allen, but we're just trying not to make him Superman, especially when the pass catchers just weren't good enough.
8:21That's a front you can't hide from. You cannot hide from how good those guys are.
8:26And I think just at a certain point, they just kind of get beat up so fast.
8:30And Josh Allen was getting heated up when I think if it was versus lesser corners, Allen would probably be more willing
8:36and able to just like chuck some balls up and get it in there.
8:40But when he's thrown to a pretty mediocre wide receiver core against Derek Steenman and Kamari Lassiter, it's like, I just don't know what you're supposed to do.
8:47And I think it's probably going to be fine that Aaron Cromer retired and Alec Anderson is stepping in for David Edwards,
8:53especially over a long enough sample of time. All that stuff is probably going to be fine.
8:58Is it going to be fine week one against these guys on the road?
9:02I don't know. It's fun. Let's watch and find out on Sunday afternoon.
9:05You had Bills Texans. Is there anything else specifically that you wanted to point out that you were curious about?
9:11I mean, you uncorked that thing on Sunday. Yeah, he brings up the, you know, Alec Anderson stepping in for David Edwards a little bit.
9:18And I think over the course of the season, I think that that will be good for them.
9:22In this matchup, it almost feels worse. Like I would rather have the have my offensive line be a little bit better.
9:28See if we can try to run the ball a little bit better this time around, whatever it's going to be.
9:34Rather than like, I just don't think like I think DJ Moore will be good and help them a lot against Kamari Lassiter and Derek Steenman.
9:41Like I still think that that is huge advantage Houston Texans.
9:44And so I think there's a chance that Texans could still lose this game and the Bills could find a way to win it.
9:51I mean, they almost did last year, despite how bad Allen and the offense played.
9:55But I'm just excited to see if the Texans can really do it again.
9:58Because the fact that this really is the only team that pretty consistently dismantles what has been the best offense in the league for a handful of years.
10:06I'm just incredibly excited to watch that again. What was the first thing you wrote down?
10:10First thing. Other than Bill's Texans. Other than Bill's Texans.
10:13After Bill's Texans, what was the next thing that you want to talk about?
10:17The next thing I had was I'm excited for Eagles Commanders because these are two not even necessarily in like, I think
10:23this is going to be a good game. This is the nature of week one.
10:27You can any matchup on the slate. It could be whatever you want it to be.
10:31You can look at any single. And that's why I don't I don't like to try to zero in on like these
10:37are the four games we're talking about because I'm 100 percent with you.
10:41When I look at the week one slate, we'll talk about it in a second.
10:45There's like four games from the new slate where I'm like, oh, man.
10:48Yeah. Browns Jags. Give it to me. Like, that's where we're at right now.
10:52So it's just so the idea that Derek could sit there earnestly and be like, I'm really excited for Eagles Commanders after
10:58everything that we've said, everything that all of a stink that's come off the Commanders in the last month or so.
11:04The vibes are just it is not good right now.
11:06It's so funny. I had the most cynical reaction to Eagles Commanders where like the game itself is interesting.
11:12But I was like, why is this Fox's lead game?
11:14Like, I don't know what he just said. You had a stinky look on your face because it's a it's a divisional game.
11:21I don't know. We're just we're so familiar with these teams.
11:23You're not wrong, though, because they're mere images of each other with the offenses.
11:27That's exactly what it is. Really intriguing about it because they will play again in like week seven or eight.
11:33I'm not seeing if there's a byway care. I'm just looking at when they play again.
11:37I probably won't care about this matchup as much by then because I will have answers on what does the offense look like.
11:43But until I get those, like I am really interested in what this is going to look like, because we spent two,
11:49three months trying to figure out how much under center can they really go?
11:53Like, how much is Washington going to really pull down on the no huddle stuff that they had been doing?
11:58You know, what is this offensive line going to look like really for both of these teams?
12:03Obviously, Washington has some shuffling around to do. They lose Laramie Tunsil and it probably doesn't seem like it's going to be a good unit.
12:10Last year was a down year for the Eagles.
12:12But does being in a new offense make them look really good again?
12:16Can they just be a little bit healthier? What does the Eagles offense look like when they don't have?
12:21I mean, when A.J. Brown is good and healthy, like the fourth, fifth best receiver in the league on their offense.
12:27Like, I'm just what if they still do have the fourth or fifth best receiver in the league on their offense?
12:32It's possible. Devontae Smith has that in him. I really like him.
12:36But I'm I mean, that's another question. Like, is he capable of handling that sort of workload?
12:40Like, that's another like does Devontae Smith get 13 targets in this game?
12:44Like, are they just like pepper it all to him?
12:46Like, I'm just curious what this is going to look like.
12:49And I'm really excited to see it. It's actually a good matchup to zero and not for that exact reason.
12:55We've talked so much about the speculation around what the offenses are going to be, the quality of it, the structure of it.
13:01We're going to get a lot of answers. And not lasting answers, maybe, but in terms of what they're going to try
13:07to do and who they're going to try to be, we will have answers on that by the time halftime comes around on Sunday.
13:13The quality of it is going to wax and wane over the course of the year.
13:18But we'll at least get like a, oh, I know what I'm looking for going into week two, week three, week four with some of these matchups.
13:25So it's very telling that the games I wrote down were all just in the noon window because for two reasons.
13:31The noon window rocks. That's what football is, man.
13:33The noon window is really sick. So if you look at the noon window, the only game in the noon window, I
13:39guess there are two of them where it's not that I'm not interested in them.
13:43It's that we have peak nonsense potential. Falcon Steelers is peak nonsense potential.
13:47If we're trying to figure out what might be the fakest game of week one, the one that features the quarterback that it's just a stand in.
13:54Like he's just there until the other guy is ready to play.
13:57And so what that means for the Falcons, I'm curious about that.
14:01What the Steelers look like. Like that's the game where I just know something is going to lie to me about what happens during that game on Sunday.
14:08It's actually it's the second thing I wrote down since we're already talking about it.
14:12I'm not usually this guy. My eyes bugged out of my head when I saw the line on this game.
14:18What is it? It's Steelers three and a half at home.
14:21Does that that's way too low? Does it not seem incredibly low?
14:24That is a we have no idea about anything.
14:26Yeah. Commentary on week one of the NFL season.
14:29This and this feels like the easiest money Vegas has ever given out, which they don't do, which scares the shit out of.
14:35Yeah, that's the wrong way to think about it.
14:37But so, well, that raises two possible outcomes. Either this is the easiest money Vegas has ever given out and they're drastically overthinking this thing.
14:44Or Mike McCarthy's tenure in Pittsburgh opens with a home loss to the Tua Tagovailoa Falcons.
14:49That that'll be the shortest honeymoon of all time.
14:51Like, good God. So, like, all of the outcomes in play here are very, very fun for a neutral observer.
14:56That one has peak nonsense potential. And the other one in that slate is what is Jets Titans going to be?
15:02This is the game. Neither of these teams are going to be good and somebody has to lose it.
15:07You cannot be the one who gets embarrassed here.
15:10Like, if you are the Jets or the Titans and you lose, like, 30 to 10, your season's already over.
15:15Like, I don't need it. Like, it's you can you have to at least make this competitive against the other bad team.
15:21And we also have the Robert Sala revenge angle of this.
15:24Yeah, I didn't even consider that. They talked about it a little bit this week.
15:28Obviously, both sides have tried to downplay it. But, I mean, that is part of this, right?
15:33That is part of the discussion around this game.
15:35And for half the defensive roster, it's got to place for the Jets.
15:39Those are the two games that I think have peak nonsense potential in the noon window.
15:43But to go along with that, there are a lot of games that I did kind of want to dig into substantively.
15:49And, like, what I'm watching and what they might look like.
15:52The first thing I wrote down, this is the, this is just peak week one bullshit.
15:56The first thing I wrote down was, Lions Saints.
15:59How much better does the Saints run game look?
16:01That is peak. That is the first thing I wrote down.
16:04It's very on brand for that to be your big note on the Lions season opener.
16:08Because here. That might be answered on the hangover this week.
16:11The reason that I went there is because I have the Saints in the wins pool.
16:16And I think that there are two things. Two things about this game that I find interesting and that I'll be watching.
16:22One, the Saints defense was good last year. And so the idea of good on good with the Lions offense against the Saints defense.
16:28Should we be thinking about that way? Was the Saints defense a mirage in the back half of last season?
16:34Are they going to be good again? Is it actually a decent kind of good on good test in week one?
16:39That's the first place my mind went. The second one was in looking at the Saints and why I thought they could
16:45be a much improved team this year. It was that if you look at the overall aggregate numbers for the Saints offense last season, they were very bad.
16:53A good chunk of that. It reminds me a little bit about the discussion we've had about the Texans.
16:58Where if you look at the EPA per drop back numbers, they're not horrendous.
17:02They're middle of the road. The run game is what sunk this offense consistently last year.
17:06That's why the numbers overall look so bad. It's because they were one of the worst run games in the league.
17:12We talked about this with the Texans getting to a place where could they be a league average run game?
17:17And what would that mean for the offense overall?
17:20Shouldn't we be having the same discussion about the Saints that added David Edwards, that added Travis H.
17:25Chan, that get Eric McCoy back? If the Saints are the 16th best rushing offense in the NFL combined with what we
17:31saw from the passing game last year, that to me is that their quickest route to being a playoff caliber team in the NFC South.
17:37And so if the run game looks good against the Lions team where the front is what should carry their defense, doesn't
17:43it reframe a little bit about what our expectations for the Saints might be?
17:47I've gotten the vibe from you all summer. You're just, you're very, I'm not saying it's a bad thing.
17:52You're very trusting or you come across very trusting that Tyler Shuck is going to be as good or better than he
17:58was in the second half of last year. And that's completely plausible.
18:01I just think I want to see it. And so much of who the Saints are going to be hinges on Shuck's performance.
18:08That does matter. But that's where my brain goes immediately when I think about the Saints is like, what does Shuck look like?
18:14I think a part of my, I don't know if you call it optimism, but part of my intrigue with them is
18:20that even if he's not substantially better. If all of that stuff comes to fruition.
18:24If all of that stuff around him improves and the defense remains good.
18:27I don't need them to be one of the best teams in the league to justify my interest in them.
18:33I just need them to be an interesting team in the NFC South.
18:36And I think the most important component of that is what the line and the run game infrastructure end up looking like.
18:42Because we kind of talked about this on like the division previews, like in eight win season where they look improved on
18:48offense and you feel good about the infrastructure. Like that is success.
18:52And the run game getting to like average and Shuck even being marginally better than he is.
18:56Like that's probably all it's going to take. Yeah, I just, I think, again, I picked them to win the division.
19:02I have some stake in the game when it comes to them that you guys don't have.
19:06And so I think I'll just be watching the Saints with the level of curiosity that I've put upon myself.
19:12But I am there. I do appreciate that they're getting thrown into the deep end.
19:16Like as fun as a Saints-Falcons game or a Saints-Panthers game might be.
19:19Let's start this thing off with a team that we think highly of.
19:23All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back and chat about a few more of these games that have piqued our interest.
19:30Are you the kind of sports fan that wants to dig into the story behind the stats?
19:35Join The Athletic Live on YouTube to cover all the sports stories you can't stop talking about.
19:39On game days, we'll watch the biggest matchups alongside The Athletic's most tapped-in reporters.
19:43And you can become part of the show in the interactive chat.
19:46The Athletic Live is presented by Google Gemini. Subscribe now on YouTube.
19:50All right, Dave, what's up next for you? Another game you've got on your radar for week one.
19:54You mentioned the noon window. And I'll talk about it so you don't have to.
19:58I love the juxtaposition in Bears-Panthers. It was not on my list.
20:02I love the juxtaposition in this game because it's such a tale of two sides of the ball game where, like, the
20:08units that should make both of these teams good or give them the best shot to be good are getting good, fun, early season tests.
20:14It's Jalen Phillips going against the Bears offense. The Panthers' whole defense, I mean, I think highly of this unit.
20:20I think it could be a unit that makes a substantial leap in this season with Devin Lloyd and Jalen Phillips on the roster.
20:26I hope not. Sure. Well, of course. And what does the Bears' offense look like?
20:30How quickly do they hit the ground running? How much of a test can the Panthers' defense give them?
20:36And that's good and fun. But the sicko angle of this might be even better where the Bears are like, if we
20:42can't do something with the Panthers' offense, it's going to be a long year.
20:45And the Panthers' offense is like, if we can't do something with the Bears' defense, it's going to be a long year.
20:51So figuring out which of those two units gets the better of the clown show aspect of this matchup, it's very fun for me personally.
20:58I think you could, if you told me, let's just say the over-under is two and a half, the amount of times
21:04that we get shown the graphic of the Bryce-Jong Caleb Williams trade, if it's over, the Bears win.
21:09Yeah. The more time we spend talking about that, it is a good thing for the Bears.
21:14I guess it's really funny. I was so, I'm so enamored with trying to watch the Bears' pass rush get to Bryce-Jong
21:19and trying to, you know, all of that stuff.
21:22I didn't even really think that hard about the trade.
21:25I mean, I know it's in the background and it'll always be an interesting dynamic in this particular matchup.
21:30But I just, these are such one-sided teams and them going against each other at the beginning of the season is very fun.
21:36I will say, like, obviously the Bears' defense has a whole litany of issues, but until, because the Carolina Panthers' offensive line
21:42is so banged up, I'm not sure what they're going to look like running the ball.
21:46And because their best mode of offense is like Tedrow and McMillan is down there somewhere, at least the Bears having a
21:52corner who can, like, match up with him and limit that a little bit.
21:56But it's like, that at least gives the Bears' defense in a weird matchup, like, a decent chance to actually, like, kind of hold their own.
22:03It's not like it's a bad matchup for a bad defense or anything.
22:07They are pretty heavily favored for a road team.
22:09Three-point road favorites. The Bears are? Yeah. There's eight games in the noon window where we're going to have to start thinking
22:15about how we distribute them if the Bears are going to get their own TV.
22:19Can I just jump in really quick here and say that, Robert, the best thing about moving everyone here and having our
22:25studio is that now Tafts universally refers to it as the noon window, the noon games.
22:29It's beautiful. We've won. We've won the war. You're in on this, Dave.
22:33I mean— Your home time zone? I've done both.
22:35I can't get behind morning football. I know a lot of people like it.
22:39I understand that you're done with football earlier in the day.
22:42It's beautiful. It's nice to be able to go get dinner when Sunday night football is over.
22:47This is— But do you ever do that? Do you ever really do that?
22:51I did it like twice in the whole time I lived there.
22:54No, this is God's time zone. It's better. We'll figure out what the district—I'll spend some time thinking about how the TV should be situated.
23:01I trust you to figure it out. We also—like, you can pull it up on your monitor maybe.
23:05I don't know. We got options. I'm okay putting Jets Titans on my own monitor as a curiosity.
23:10Oh, no. They'll all be up there. We've got 14— Yeah, yeah.
23:14We have to remember we can re-embrace the multi-view.
23:16It's a matter of who gets the biggest screens.
23:18Yes. We have four TVs—or four games per TV.
23:21We have four TVs. There's a lot of different ways that we can do this.
23:25All right, Derek, what's up next for you? The next game, the next matchup, the next element of week one that you want to talk about?
23:32Yeah, I'll go to my last game-specific thing that I really have here, and I'm going to continue doing the bit.
23:38I'm excited to see the Kyler Murray Vikings, man.
23:40Like, I'm just really excited for what this thing is going to look like.
23:44Jared Goff, we're throwing 10 digs a game sort of offense.
23:47And so I'm just curious, can they sprinkle in at least a little bit of that to keep defenses honest?
23:52And so I think it's like the perfect mix of I'm excited to see it because it will be good.
23:58And also, I just don't know exactly what it's going to look like, all the beats of it.
24:03For better or for worse, the takes radiating off of Packers Vikings are going to— Like, you're going to need a Geiger counter?
24:09Like, don't go near it without a Geiger counter because if the Vikings win, it's like the future is now, old man.
24:15Get the hell out of here with your Packers bullshit.
24:17It's all over for Green Bay. And if the Packers manage to win, they are not favored.
24:22If they manage to win without Micah and all the stuff we've outlined a dozen times, if they win this game, the
24:28chest-thumping from Packers fans is—you're going to be able to hear it from here.
24:32I love there are four games in the late window.
24:35We'll have two division games where there's a lot of intrigue.
24:38It's almost like the three dragons meme, except it's two and two.
24:41Like, we have two division games where it's like, hell yeah.
24:44Like, let's watch this. There's a lot of stuff I want to learn from this.
24:48And then the other two games are Cardinals Chargers and Dolphins Raiders, where those just kind of be hanging off to the side.
24:54They'll be around. They'll be on. They'll all be on.
24:57They will all be on. All the games are always on.
25:00But that distribution of games to me is very funny.
25:02All right, before we move on, let's take one more quick break.
25:06I'm going to stick in the noon window. I'm so interested in so many aspects of these games.
25:11And I don't know. Maybe it's just, again, because I saw them first.
25:14But I kept going back to so many of the layers to these that I find myself interested in.
25:19Bengals Bucks has so many things that I find intriguing here.
25:22Because the units in this game, I think that we have a lot of questions collectively about them.
25:27The Bucks offense against the Bengals defense is a matchup with two units that need to bounce back in a huge way.
25:33Which of those two groups looks better after an offseason where we expect them to be improved?
25:38With the Bucks, new offensive coordinator, offensive line healthy.
25:40And then that offensive line being healthy immediately presents a worthwhile test for a Bengals front that just feels completely different than it did last year.
25:47Dan Pitcher today was talking to reporters, the offensive coordinator for Cincinnati.
25:50And he was talking about what it feels like to just be at practice with a defense like that.
25:56And he was describing that it's just a visceral difference when you have a defense filled with those sorts of players compared to what you had last year.
26:03And I'm sure the Bucks feel that way about having the offensive line back.
26:07The Bucks probably feel that way about their own defense.
26:10And so you have this Bucks defense now going against the Bengals offense, which to me is a sneaky one for how
26:16both of those units will look different. How much better does the Bucks front feel?
26:20We've talked so much about the evolution of the Bengals offense and how they're going to do things differently.
26:25If we want to take things to a really granular level, this is a Bucks defense that played with blocked boxes at
26:31the third lowest rate in the league last year per next gen.
26:34They're going to put bodies near the line of scrimmage if you're playing in a way that seemingly justifies it.
26:39Well, the Bengals are going to try to play that way.
26:42Do the Bucks respond that way? Or do we get a lot of white boxes because it's Cincinnati?
26:47And if that's the case, can the Bengals run the ball into those looks?
26:51That becomes the first real test of this Bengals hypothesis of, all right, if you're going to play that way, we can hammer you on the ground.
26:58Now, if you're not going to play that way, you're going to give us those one on one matchups.
27:04You're going to play some single high against us.
27:06Can we throw the ball over the yard? And so what the Bucks choose to do becomes kind of the first data
27:12point in how teams play against the Bengals and what their pivot off of that plan looks like.
27:17Week one. I'm jazzed about what the Bucks defense might like.
27:20I mean, I've said for, I think, the last month now, they've been a team that, you know, I think over the
27:26course of the offseason, like some teams you start to sour on or some like you start to look at it in a different light.
27:33I'm not noticing the Bucks love. By the end of the offseason, I was like, I don't know, dude, I think the
27:38Bucks are going to be kind of good. And so I'm just I think the Baker contract make you feel better about the Bucks.
27:45This year, right now. It makes me feel better about the Bucks right now in this.
27:49Ironically, probably things are settled. Yeah, that probably because they got they had done, too.
27:53So I feel like the fact that things are a little bit settled on my probably is good for them.
27:59The irony is I argued throughout the spring for re-signing Baker.
28:02And in the big picture, I think it's good.
28:04But isn't Baker better when he's pissed off? Oh, that's a good.
28:07He might still be pissed off that it took this long.
28:10Maybe. Yeah. Well, Baker will convince himself he's still mad that it took this long anyway.
28:15He's got like one hundred twenty million dollars. He's going to find Baker Mayfield is going to find a slight to amplify and live off of.
28:22He will. But but with the defense, I am curious about like how they want to go about stuff, because Cincinnati, they
28:28draw the most like too high cloud type of cover because, yeah, Jamar Chase and T Higgins.
28:32Why wouldn't they? And Bowles typically is a guy who like he wants to crowd the box and he wants to have a bunch of guys in there.
28:40And that's last year. I think they did that in part because they were so bad that it was like we have
28:46the only way we can stop like win on defense is stop the run on first down.
28:51And like they've done that pretty consistently. But that's the thing.
28:54It's like they always done that. Exactly. That is it.
28:56That's part of their identity. Right. That's what Bowles does.
28:59Yeah. But I am curious. Does like does a guy like Reuben Bain who can buy you a little bit more space
29:05with the way that he sets the edge? Does that help you?
29:08Does does does Josiah Trotter who can come back and take back space and maybe buy room for two high safeties coming down to the box?
29:15Like, do they play a little bit more of that stuff?
29:18They're still always going to be a single high fill the box team.
29:22That's what Todd Bowles does. But a couple of more change ups.
29:25I am curious to see if they throw that in.
29:28My favorite wrinkle in Bucks Bengals is that it's a matchup of a team that rips out of the gate every year
29:34against a team that takes a month to get going every year.
29:37I'm so glad you brought that up. The Bengals have never been good in September.
29:41The Bucks are 11 and five in the first month of the season and four and oh in openers under Todd Bowles.
29:47The Bengals are six and 10 and one and three in the last four years.
29:51So, I mean, week one can be a liar, but you know, like the Bucks have been better at this over the last four years.
29:58My hope to that is that this is one of the most normal off seasons the Bengals have ever had.
30:03Every single year. That is true. Burroughs got the calf or Burroughs got the appendectomy or Chase is holding out.
30:09Every year it seems like they're dealing with some weird bullshit all August.
30:12And this year for the first time, it was a relatively normal training camp in Cincinnati.
30:16It is funny that we've never really seen them have just like a regular start to the season.
30:21It's something every year. Last year was a Trey Anderson thing.
30:24Yeah. Like every single year there's something happening with the Bengals this time of year.
30:28And this season it was actually pretty spotless in terms of what their August felt like.
30:33All right, Dave, you got anything else for me?
30:35I mean, we've gotten this far. Well, first of all, I can't believe we haven't mentioned Ravens Colts.
30:40I was about to. That was my that was next to my list.
30:44I'll save Ravens Colts for you and I'll do I'll do the Sunday night game Cowboys Giants.
30:48It was already interesting and obviously it sucks that Tyler Smith had to go to IR with his thumb injury, but taking
30:54the best piece of your offensive line out before you play this front should complicate things.
30:58And I think. I don't know. I think this is the most excited I've been about a Cowboys Giants game in a
31:04long time because like the Giants have just been a speed bump for the Cowboys for a decade at this point.
31:10I mean, that week one game two years ago.
31:13It was all the way back in 2023. The three years ago.
31:16Yeah, which that's the funny thing. Like the Giants have tried to convince themselves that like this year will be different for
31:22three or four years at this point. And that 40 to nothing game was the ultimate example of like, just calm down.
31:28You don't have to be back overnight. But I do think that this could be a stressful affair and not a lot
31:34of Cowboys Giants games have been stressful other than ironically that overtime game last year was wild.
31:38I need it to not be a stressful affair.
31:41Well, yeah, you're right. You're bought in on the Cowboys now.
31:44But it'll be fun watching Dak navigate this pressure, which I think he can do.
31:48But I think the Giants can bring some juice against it.
31:51And I will say sometimes this like Fangio Minter style of defense where you're playing a lot of too high.
31:56The teams with running quarterbacks give them some issues, whether that's as a scrambler or whether that is in the design run
32:02game like Dart himself played pretty well against Minter's Chargers last year.
32:05Yeah, especially as a runner. And so Parker kind of instilling that similar style of defense.
32:10I do think that there's a chance that especially in week one, it's just like a weird ass game where he's able
32:16to run for like 80 yards and just kind of pull off some plays that way.
32:20We talk about this all the time on the show.
32:23But like the way we do the show means unless it is a Titanic Sunday night football, we're probably only paying half
32:29attention while we work on a dozen other things.
32:31Obviously, I'm going to be invested in the Cowboys.
32:34We're going to talk about the Sunday night game this week.
32:36For week one, we'll talk about this Sunday night game.
32:39That's great to know, but I just love the mental image of you being right there with me, like invested in what the Cowboys are doing.
32:46I already have so many regrets about it, but at this point we're in, so there's no going back.
32:51As long as they score 40, I don't care if they win.
32:55Yeah, week one is the week to do it for sure.
32:58I just want to see the offense come out and look like it's humming.
33:01That's the entire – because I think people have kind of misconstrued – I can't remember what it was.
33:07I joked about the Tyler Smith injury earlier this week about how I've been on the Cowboys for like 10 days and then this happens.
33:13And people are like, oh, well, you know, it's all about the Christian Parker part of this anyway.
33:18It's like, not really. Like this is rooted in the Cowboys being the second best offense or the best offense in the league.
33:24That's where all of this starts. And so even if you can harbor some excitement and some enthusiasm and some optimism about
33:30the Giants defense being better, which I absolutely think you can, I don't think that improvement is so big that the Cowboys
33:36offense that a lot of us are collectively excited about, you pick them number two in the offenses draft, should come out
33:42and really be able to have some success in this game.
33:45Inverse of your Saints question too, all eyes on the Giants run defense without Dexter Lawrence.
33:50Jermaine Edmonds is there. Arvel Reese is there. They're there.
33:52They've added some bodies in the middle. And now the Cowboys don't have Tyler Smith.
33:56Yeah. If they run all over them anyway, that's troubling if you care about the Giants.
34:01This is, again, maybe a little bit of coping, but TJ Bass is a competent backup offensive lineman.
34:06He's played a decent amount. If you're going to have a guy that you have to slot in there, there are worse
34:12options to have on your interior defensive offensive line.
34:14And there's just a chance that both BB and Booker are better this year than they were last year.
34:19At least that would be the hope. Yeah. And Booker was hurt for a good time for the last season.
34:25So I was weirdly not very worried about the Tyler Smith thing.
34:28Like assuming he'll be back in four to six weeks, like I think they can weather that.
34:32That leaves one of us. You didn't have any other game specific stuff.
34:36I'm going to rattle off the two more here.
34:38Ravens Colts. So many things about this. What does the Ravens defense look like under Jesse Minter?
34:43How do they play? Like what is the play style?
34:46How do they approach this? How do they use certain guys?
34:49What is the overall quality of this thing? And the fact that on the other side of that matchup is an offense
34:55that at its best last year was one of the best in the entire league.
34:59And the quarterback is apparently healthy. Well, Alec Pierce is going to play in this game.
35:03What does the Colts offense look like initially? Is that something where they come out of the gate strong?
35:08Is that negated by a Ravens defense that might be significantly better than even we think going into the season?
35:14And so what those two units look like, very curious about it.
35:17And then the Ravens offense period has been an object of curiosity over this entire summer.
35:21What do they look like? What is the Declan Duller version of this thing?
35:25How quickly does Lamar Jackson take to it? Does this very quickly become a really dangerous offense?
35:30Did they sputter a little bit out of the gate?
35:32Leaning into a new approach on that side of the ball.
35:35So that game to me is just one big mystery box.
35:38There's so many different things. Things I'm really curious to get a first glimpse at between those two teams.
35:43I am also pretty excited for this one. And I think with the Ravens, it's.
35:47I think Lamar Jackson will like look healthier and look good.
35:50And I think the offense will be good. To me, it is a matter of like construction.
35:55Like how much are they going under center? And how quickly do they look good?
35:59How quickly does it all feel comfortable and cohesive?
36:02That's the thing. Is this like a little bit like early last year where it's like kind of janky, but they can
36:08get some really explosive plays and kind of see what the offense is supposed to be, but it doesn't feel cohesive.
36:13Or is this like. You remember the Dolphins like week one or two game they played like four years ago where they
36:19were just immediately like, oh, they're going to be the best offense in the NFL.
36:23Like there's a chance that they could do something like that.
36:26And so could this be the game that last year's Colts had in week one?
36:30Yeah. The Ravens offense. I mean, that's possible. Absolutely.
36:33There's going to be one of those, like you said, and figuring out who that is over the course of Sunday, I think is going to be fun.
36:40There was a two or three year stretch where the Ravens looked like Ohio state playing ball state in week one for
36:46a few years where it was just like, it's not supposed to look this easy, even if the team you're playing is not good.
36:53I don't know if that's going to happen against the Colts, but it would be fun to see the Ravens hum at that level.
36:59It's also just something that we haven't really drilled down on specifically over the course of the off season, because I think
37:05there still is so much collective optimism about the Ravens.
37:08They have a new coach for the first time in a decade and a half, almost two decades.
37:13What does that mean for the Ravens? What feels different because Jesse Minter is there?
37:17Part of the reason that I think people are still picking them to go to the Super Bowl or be a really
37:23good team is that there's enough carryover and enough institutional trust in who they've been, but there is a chance this feels different.
37:29Is it for better? Is it for worse? There are, that is a question looming over both the Bills and the Ravens,
37:35where I think we ascribe a certain level of consistency and familiarity to them because the quarterbacks are there.
37:40But in reality, there is a lot of stuff that's new in both of those places.
37:45What does that mean? And how quickly do we get a sense of what that is for both of these teams?
37:50Last thing for me in the noon window, this is very simple.
37:53Browns Jags also, to me, has potential for nonsense.
37:56And that's just in part because the Browns front against the Jags offensive line, to me, is a very good week one
38:02test for a relative, I don't even call it a relative weakness, a potential trouble spot for a team that has playoff aspirations.
38:08A fatal flaw. If the Jaguars season goes poorly, it's because the offensive line is not good enough.
38:13Like that's kind of like the long, I think that that's like the easiest market to put there.
38:18And so, yeah, if you don't look good immediately against the Cleveland front, that is like good, but no longer special.
38:24I think without Miles Garrett, it's like, that's going to be a problem if they just get beat.
38:28But the defensive tackles are, I mean, if Malik Collins plays close to the level he played at last year, I know he's banged up over there.
38:36It was banged up in this offseason. But if he, if he's playing well again, if Mason Graham is better, Jared versus
38:42still here, like there are still players on this front that provide a good test for, again, that that's one of the
38:48swing units of the entire season is the Jags offensive line.
38:51And so this being the week one test, I think is particularly notable.
38:54I also think, I mean, I think the Jags are the biggest favorite of the week.
38:58They're eight and a half point favorites. I think it's them and the Chargers.
39:02Oh, the Chargers are big favorites too. You're right.
39:05Either way, they're one of the biggest favorites of the week.
39:08And I think, you know, I bet they'll be a popular pick for survivor people.
39:12If you play survivor and I can imagine a world where people are like, how are the Jags struggling with the no miles Garrett Brown's defense?
39:19And it's like, no, like that's, that's a reasonable thing that could happen.
39:22And like, if you've been paying attention to both of these units, but having said that it would, it would be fun
39:28if the Jags just got out to the races too.
39:31You had some non game specific things that you wanted to bring up as part of this discussion.
39:36Yeah. Mine is which of the rookies is just immediately like clearly a guy because last year, if we remember Tyler Warren
39:42tied in for the Colts in week one, had seven catches for 76 yards.
39:46And a couple of them were like, content, like contested, like went up, he went up for like a wheel route and
39:52Colin got slammed by the safety, like through the back of his rib cage and like still caught it.
39:57They rolled out the whole thing for him. Yes.
39:59They were like, he's the offense. He did everything.
40:02And it was, it was just like me. And that's, that's the thing.
40:05It wasn't just like, he was good. It was like, Oh, they're going to build this out of him.
40:10Emeka Ibuka for the Bucs caught six passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns, including the game winner on like a deep post route.
40:17Those two guys were just immediately like, Oh, they're going to be very good for their offenses.
40:21And obviously the Colts thing sputters for different reasons.
40:24Ibuka gets a little bit banged up, but it was obvious that those guys were going to be good.
40:29I'm just curious to see who it is this year.
40:32Do you have any guesses as to who that might be?
40:35Um, so you're a little invested in like an eight catch for 80 yard, Carnell Tate game against the jets maybe because they don't have good corners.
40:42So yes. And so even if I've got questions about what the Titans offense is going to look like, I do think
40:48that there's a chance that he can just get enough targets against some shaky corners that that's going to work.
40:53Um, Vanga Ioane against these defensive tackles. I don't expect him to be good necessarily because that's a really tough matchup with
40:59Buckner and Stewart, but that's one of those, like, if he looks good immediately against that duo, it's like, they've got a guy.
41:06He's somebody that we just haven't talked that much about this summer.
41:09You want, as we've talked about the Ravens and just why they could feel different.
41:13I thought he looked good in the preseason too.
41:15I did. He's just somebody that we haven't talked that much about.
41:19I watched him against Philly and he looked exactly how I expected him to look on draft night.
41:23The idea that they're starting center right now is Jovan Gwynn.
41:26You know, I think that's that people have been more concerned with that and the Danny Pinter part of this.
41:32And I think we have been about what Ioane could look like and how different the physicality of their interior could be with him and John Simpson.
41:39And I think it is just a little bit of like kind of what you're saying, David, like how we talked about
41:45him as a prospect where it's just this. I think when we talk about the Ravens interior, we're just like, oh, they fixed the guards.
41:52They got some guys who can play in there.
41:54Like we don't even really consider the fact that you want is a rookie.
41:58Like we kind of just think like he's going to step in there and the ceiling we'll see as he develops.
42:04But it's like we all kind of expect he's going to be good.
42:07The floor. It was the entire conversation about him in the draft process that he was like one of the cleanest prospects in the entire draft.
42:14I don't think we've really explored what a ceiling case might mean for him and for the Ravens.
42:19That's just not something we've talked much about. And so getting a sense of that early, I think it's going to be a fun thing to watch.
42:27What else did you have? Anything else? Other than the rookies?
42:30No, that was pretty much it for me. It's like, yeah, which just which rookies are going to pop?
42:35Because there always are a couple that are just immediately that guy's awesome.
42:38I actually also do think Caleb Downs against an offense that like we're unsure how good they're going to be.
42:44If he just goes nuclear week one, I'm like, that's awesome, man.
42:47I know we're going to make more content between now and then.
42:50So it might it might come up, but it feels worth saying good job schedule people.
42:54Broncos chiefs Monday night football Patrick Mahomes. At the time, people were like, is he even going to be back?
43:00Is it going to be a race to get him onto the field?
43:03Not even close. So Mahomes making his debut. At home against the Broncos, who finally took the division away from them last
43:09year, that is that's cinema, as they like to say.
43:12All right. That is all we've got as we gear up for week one of the 2026 season.
43:17Very excited for tonight. According to some Wednesday again, very excited for tomorrow.
43:20And then we will all be here all day on Sunday.
43:23We'll be live Thursday night and Sunday nights on YouTube.
43:26Encourage you guys to come hang out with us after the games wrap up.
43:30Until then, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening.
43:33We'll talk to you soon. Thanks for tuning in.
43:35Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.
43:39If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment and leave a rating.
43:43We'll see you next time.

More episodes from The Athletic Football Show

6