Predictions and award picks for the 2026 NFL season

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 21 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Sep 9, 2026

Published

Wed, September 9, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Jared GoffJosh AllenJustin HerbertJustin JeffersonAmon-Ra St. BrownBrock PurdyCarnell TateDak PrescottFernando MendozaJadarian PriceJahmyr GibbsJayden DanielsJaylen WaddleJeremiyah Love

Player analysis

Player insights

Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveValue25:04

The source highlights Amon-Ra St. Brown as a 25-to-1 long-shot for Offensive Player of the Year. His consistency is noted, having recorded over 1,200 yards in each of his last three seasons. The source argues that if he pushes his yardage to 1,600 and increases his touchdown total, he has a clear path to the award given his high target volume and role in the Lions' offense.

Insight page

Brock Purdy

NegativeProjection96:49

The source notes that while Brock Purdy was top-three in EPA per play and number one in success rate last year, his MVP case is hindered by the perception that Kyle Shanahan's coaching is the primary driver of the 49ers' success.

Insight page

Carnell Tate

PositiveBreakout26:46

Despite a weird preseason, the source remains high on Carnell Tate, projecting him to be a very good receiver who provides the offense with elements they lacked last year, potentially reaching 90 targets.

Insight page

Dak Prescott

PositiveProjection50:13

The source considers Dak Prescott a strong MVP candidate, noting his potential to throw for 5,000 yards in his second year in the current system. While he faces questions regarding marquee wins, he is viewed as a viable bet for a 12-win season.

Insight page

Fernando Mendoza

NegativeRole26:57

The source expresses doubt regarding Fernando Mendoza's fantasy value, primarily because there is significant uncertainty about when he will actually enter the lineup.

Insight page

Jadarian Price

PositiveRole30:46

Jadarian Price is identified as a potential bell-cow back for the defending Super Bowl champions, though his total volume remains contingent on Zach Charbonnet's health and return timeline.

Insight page

Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveProjection20:25

The source views Jahmyr Gibbs as the favorite for Offensive Player of the Year due to his explosive efficiency—ranking high in yards per carry, rushing touchdowns, and explosive runs—and the Lions' strong offensive infrastructure. The source expects his numbers to be 'Bijan-adjacent' and notes that his ability to handle a larger touch load (up to 380 touches) would solidify his case for the award.

Insight page

Jared Goff

PositiveValue52:37

Jared Goff is presented as a high-value MVP long-shot (35-to-1). The source argues that his consistent production (4,400+ yards and 30+ TDs) makes him a better bet than other quarterbacks with shorter odds, provided the Lions win 14 games and he reaches 40 touchdowns.

Insight page

PositiveProjection92:07

The source notes that Jared Goff putting up a 2016 Matt Ryan-esque season is not crazy, and his MVP odds are nearly twice as long as Jordan Love's, making him an intriguing value bet.

Insight page

Jayden Daniels

PositiveValue93:20

The source finds it insane that Jayden Daniels has the same MVP odds as Jordan Love, implying Daniels is undervalued at 20-to-1.

Insight page

Jaylen Waddle

PositiveSleeper27:26

The source identifies Jaylen Waddle as a 75-to-1 long-shot for Offensive Player of the Year. The reasoning is that if Bo Nix funnels the Broncos' offense through Waddle, he could see a massive increase in production. The source notes that Bo Nix led the league in pass attempts last year, providing a high-volume environment for Waddle to potentially break out.

Insight page

Jeremiyah Love

PositiveUsage27:55

Jeremiah Love is viewed as a strong candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year due to his projected heavy workload, with the source estimating he could reach 280 carries and 1150 rushing yards.

Insight page

Joe Burrow

PositiveProjection95:11

The source suggests this could be a breakout year for Joe Burrow, provided the Bengals' defense helps the team win enough games to reach the playoffs.

Insight page

Jordan Love

PositiveProjection93:27

The source views Jordan Love as a strong MVP candidate, noting he is a better player than Jared Goff, though his shorter odds make him a less attractive betting value.

Insight page

Josh Allen

PositiveValue18:33

The source identifies Josh Allen as a 50-to-1 long-shot for Defensive Player of the Year. He finished fifth in the league in overall pressures last year despite only recording eight sacks. The source suggests that if he converts more of those pressures into sacks and the Jaguars emerge as a top-three defense, he could be a viable candidate.

Insight page

PositiveProjection94:02

The source identifies Josh Allen as a top MVP pick, citing his four-year streak of leading the league in rushing touchdowns and being top-five in EPA per play.

Insight page

Justin Herbert

NegativeBust54:15

The source expresses skepticism about Justin Herbert as an MVP bet, despite his high odds. While the offense may be productive, the source believes it would require a 'truly special' season, including potential rushing touchdown contributions, for him to overcome the narrative hurdles and team success requirements.

Insight page

PositiveProjection92:12

The source suggests Justin Herbert could have a much better statistical season than his recent years, potentially adding six rushing touchdowns to his total, though he needs the team to perform as a top-three offense to reach his ceiling.

Insight page

Justin Jefferson

PositiveProjection18:28

The source suggests Justin Jefferson has the talent to win Offensive Player of the Year, though there is uncertainty regarding the Vikings' offensive scheme and whether Kyler Murray's specific playstyle will limit Jefferson's access to the intermediate middle of the field.

Insight page

PositiveValue29:01

The source considers Justin Jefferson a strong candidate for Offensive Player of the Year at 16-to-1 odds. Despite missing seven games in 2023, his career average remains elite (99 catches, 1,480 yards, 8 TDs). The source believes that improved quarterback play in Minnesota will allow him to return to his elite production levels, making him a 'buy-low' candidate in fantasy drafts.

Insight page

Kyler Murray

NegativeRole18:40

The source expresses skepticism about the Vikings' offense, noting that Kyler Murray is a unique quarterback whose specific playstyle creates uncertainty regarding how the offense will function and which areas of the field he will target.

Insight page

Zach Charbonnet

NegativeInjury30:50

The source expects Zach Charbonnet to eventually return and cut into Jadarian Price's workload, limiting Price's total season output.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,093

0:00Welcome to The Athletic Football Show brought to you by the US Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card.

0:05I'm Robert Mays. It is predictions day here on The Athletic Football Show.

0:08We are laying out our picks for every major season long award and our playoff division winner picks and the Super Bowl.

0:14That's what we did today with me, Dave and Derek.

0:17A quick bit of housekeeping before we dig into that.

0:20Our in season schedule this year on The Athletic Football Show, pretty much the same as it was last year.

0:25Sunday night recaps live on the YouTube channel. Would love if you guys would come join us for those live while we're doing them.

0:32The audio will be in your feet on Mondays.

0:34Tuesdays, me and Derek doing the Monday hangover picking three games or so that we didn't talk about on the previous night's recap.

0:40Wednesdays is Building the Beast with Dave and Dane.

0:43All of your draft coverage available every Wednesday throughout the season.

0:46Thursday, me and a guest, same as we did last year.

0:49Those shows will be all over the place, whatever I find interesting, whatever I'm curious about that week.

0:54And then Friday, we will have our weekly previews.

0:56The big change this year, we will have the Monday night and Thursday night recaps available as audio podcasts in your feed

1:02every single time we do them, which I think we're planning to do every Monday and Thursday night this year.

1:07We still will be doing them live on YouTube.

1:10Would love if you guys would come join us on YouTube for those shows.

1:14But either way, they will be available as podcasts for the first time this year for a whole variety of reasons.

1:19But if you guys are not YouTube consumers, not YouTube subscribers, which you all should be at this point, because we also

1:25have a more robust video specific YouTube plan coming to you this year.

1:29But if not, you will be able to listen to those as podcasts for the first time.

1:33That's really the big change. Other than that, your regularly scheduled programming here on The Athletic Football Show.

1:38And that includes our yearly predictions, our yearly prediction and awards episode, which is coming to you right now.

1:44It's about that time, gentlemen. We have football tonight.

1:46The season kicks off. Super Bowl recap or Super Bowl rematch, excuse me.

1:50Super Bowl recap wouldn't be as fun. Super Bowl rematch between the Seahawks and the Patriots.

1:54So we're celebrating this the only way we know how.

1:57It is time for some predictions about how this NFL season will go.

2:00I've alluded to this, Derek, at some point over the last month or so.

2:04I don't know if I've ever had a harder time whittling down the teams.

2:08Like, I feel so unconvicted about especially some of the playoff team choices this year, just because I think it's so tight

2:14in the AFC that you could go so many different directions.

2:17So no matter what we do, people are going to be mad about some of these decisions.

2:21But that is the nature of the league as we enter the 2026 season.

2:25I actually almost think because there are so many viable playoff teams, I almost felt better about it because it made it

2:31easier to just be like, you have to accept that two or three teams will be good and probably be left off.

2:37Yes. They don't have to accept. Right. They don't have to accept.

2:40But like, and the other, I just feel like some other years it's like, you're kind of hemming and hawing over like,

2:46is my seventh seed really a playoff team? And that to me is more excruciating than being like, the team I'm picking seventh is a playoff team.

2:54Sure, I'm leaving a couple off, but I at least feel better about that.

2:57I ran through one of those season simulators just to sort of help visualize everything.

3:02And when I got to the end of it, I was like, shit, this is completely opposite of what I thought it was going to be.

3:09And it's, it's impossible trying to sort through all this.

3:11I don't even have anything that's overly spicy. I mean, there's maybe one division winner that might be a little bit surprising,

3:17maybe a couple, but I think you could talk yourself into pretty much any of them.

3:22So that's just the nature of what the league looks like.

3:25I think that it's easy to go chalk because there's so many chalk worthwhile picks where it would seem like, oh, this

3:31team that maybe has the 11th best odds to make the playoffs in the AFC.

3:35And we'll talk about it. In the AFC, there were nine teams.

3:38It was one of the sportsbooks I was looking at because I was just curious.

3:42Nine teams had minus odds to make the playoffs.

3:45I was talking about that with Beller before the show.

3:47Nine. And so the nine that I came up with, I was like, how do I pick between these?

3:52And when I saw that and I saw how close it all was stacked together, it made me feel so much better

3:58that it was just excruciating to whittle it down from nine to seven.

4:02But again, that made me feel better. I was like, listen, you just have to accept it's going to be what it's going to be.

4:09I'm so curious, Beller, if that's happened before. Any time recently.

4:12Where nine teams had minus odds to make the playoffs.

4:14It seems incredibly unlikely to the extent that it's not even possible.

4:18The Jags were the closest one to even. And I think what I was looking at yesterday, they were like minus 110.

4:24Mm-hmm. Those are very good odds to make the playoffs.

4:26It's like your standard Moneyline favorite. Yes. So it's just an incredibly strange year.

4:30And I, we're already getting out of, I'm already getting out ahead of my apology because I feel bad about the couple of teams I left off.

4:38All right. We're going to start though, not with playoff teams or Super Bowl picks, all of that.

4:42We're going to start with player individual awards. We do this every year.

4:46We start with a couple of the big ones and then get some of the more mid-range ones before getting to the headline stuff like MVP.

4:53Let's start with defensive player of the year. Dave, why don't you kick us off?

4:57Who is your choice for defensive player of the year?

5:00And for all of these, we're also going to throw out like one long shot bet that we think is at least interesting that was on the board.

5:07Do you want me to do both at once?

5:10Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Because for a lot of these, I just, and I know it's, it's a frustrating thing to do to

5:16pick award winners because there's a certain logic that follows picking these award winners that frankly is kind of boring.

5:21And so I'll just say at the beginning, if I was actually going to place money on somebody to win defensive player

5:27of the year, it would be Will Anderson. I mean, what he's already done.

5:31He was third in the league in pressures last year.

5:34He led the league in pass rush win rate per PFF.

5:37He had 12 sacks. He is the face of one of the league's truly elite defenses.

5:41And unlike a defense like Seattle, where there's eight guys, I mean, it's him and Daniil Hunter.

5:46All due respect to Derek Stingley. It's him and Daniil Hunter.

5:49Sorry, buddy. It's okay. It's that's his main competition is his own edge rusher.

5:53So like if, if Will Anderson has the exact same season, but has 15 or 16 sacks instead of 12, that's beyond

5:58obvious and like a beyond easy pick. I'll take it one step further.

6:02If Will Anderson has the exact same season he had last year and Miles Garrett doesn't have the sacks, then Will Anderson is probably the defense player.

6:09The other guy doesn't break records. You probably have a pretty good chance to get Will Anderson.

6:14So you really don't need me to tell you that Will Anderson might win defensive player of the year.

6:19So if I'm stepping out on a limb a little bit and having a little bit more fun, can I interest you

6:25in an all pro from another defense that we think has the chance to be the best in the NFL?

6:31Quinion Mitchell is also my long shot pick. Let's go.

6:33Yeah, it's a very, it's a very logical place to land.

6:36And I, I was given the courage to do it based on Patrick Sertan doing this two years.

6:41Not that long ago. Yeah. It would probably require some things breaking his way.

6:45Maybe Miles Garrett splits, you know, sacks with Aaron Donald or, or Byron Young or whoever.

6:49And maybe the Houston guys just aren't quite as amazing as, as we think they'll be.

6:54But Quinion Mitchell, he's already a household name. He's a first team all pro last year.

6:58He plays for an NFC East team. So we already know the eyeballs are going to be on him and they're going

7:04to be playing a ton of big games. We think this is going to be a top five, maybe even better defense.

7:10And he's already widely seen as a top five, six corner in the NFL.

7:14And it's not crazy to think that he could make another leap in, in that progression this year, 29 pass breakups over his two years in the NFL.

7:21No interceptions in the regular season. That's the problem.

7:24Okay. But is it a problem? Because in two playoff games, he has four.

7:28So it's not like he can't get them. He just hasn't gotten them in the regular season.

7:32I just think there's two, the lack of regular season interceptions.

7:35I just think you have to have so many of them to win defensive player of the year.

7:40I would disagree because Patrick Sertan only had four.

7:43Here's the other wrinkle to that though. When you play in a man heavy defense, there can be a drumbeat about what

7:49you are within that defense that I think allows your value to extend beyond whether you're taking the ball away.

7:54For the most part, in order to win long regular season awards as a defensive back, you need crazy counting stats or

8:00you need a narrative driven thing like Patrick Sertan had where this team plays a ton of man.

8:05It's all him. He's the driving force behind it.

8:07The Eagles aren't that sort of defense. That's my only thing holding me back.

8:11I think they could be a little bit more of that defense this year because they did play a lot of man on third down last year.

8:18Yeah. It's not going to be the Broncos. It's not, you know, where he's following the number one.

8:23But if everyone's talking about, hey, they're playing more man and they're playing more man because they have Queen.

8:29That's all right. That's actually a good point. That's actually a good point.

8:32The thing that's going to bite me in the ass is Tariq.

8:35Will it watch Tariq. Will and finish with six picks.

8:38And, you know, Quenya Mitchell's the better corner. But that's what happens all the time.

8:42It does. It absolutely does. But I don't know if he plays, if he plays another level higher and this defense is what we think it could be.

8:50If it's a top three defense, let's say he gets at least three picks and he's sort of the one of the faces of this Eagles defense.

8:57I think it's definitely a long shot. But if we're not going obvious, I think it's as logical as any pick.

9:03I liked the odds. It's like 50 ish to one.

9:05And I think it's just that you can tell yourself a story about how it gets there, even though I think it's a little bit remote.

9:13My actual choice is also Will Anderson. I picked him last year.

9:16I'm just going to do it again. Because I think that if he has the exact same season, then he wins defensive

9:22player of the year if Miles Garrett doesn't break the sack record.

9:25And we've talked a lot about this. I think the Texans have a chance to have a special defense this year.

9:31And so if the Texans have that sort of defense, who's going to be the face of that defense, the best player on that defense?

9:38I think it's probably going to be Will Anderson.

9:40You mentioned Daniel Hunter, and I almost picked him as the long shot bet just to kind of cover your bases.

9:46But it's harder for me to imagine that because even if there's a season, let's just play this out.

9:51It happened last year, right? How many sacks did Daniel Hunter have last year?

9:55He had 15, which is three more than Will Anderson.

9:57Yes, but no one thought Daniel Hunter was a more important defensive player for the Texans than Will Anderson.

10:03He would have to have like 20 sacks. Exactly.

10:05I feel like the impact that Will Anderson is consistently making, and even beyond what you said, Dave, about the total pressure

10:11numbers, he had the second most pressures in the league last year per next gen.

10:15He had 38 quick pressures, which is the third most in the NFL.

10:19He had an 8.7% quick pressure rate. Like this, how often and how efficiently he is affecting the quarterback beyond the sack

10:25totals and what he is as a run defender.

10:27I just think that the season Daniel Hunter would have to have to take away the narrative upper hand from Will Anderson.

10:33It's just hard for me to imagine that. So that's why I went with Quenion Mitchell.

10:37I mean, my standard pick is also Will Anderson.

10:40It's like Will Anderson or Miles Garrett. I don't really see why you pick anybody else.

10:44Realistically, there's like four names that deserve serious consideration.

10:47Yeah. We see, and I know I just said Patrick Sertan won this recently, but more often than not, it's a very

10:53good bet to go with a pass rush. And that was a year that just like there were no star pass rushers that year.

10:59I mean, Miles Garrett was Miles Garrett, but I think that year he just didn't have as many sacks as he might typically have in a season.

11:06You know, he didn't break the record like he did this past season.

11:10My long shot, also 50 to 1, tied there with Quenion Mitchell.

11:13I had Josh Hans-Allen. Just based on like, if I'm trying to pick a pass rusher who is really good, but the

11:19pressure numbers were better than the sack numbers. That's actually a good way to do it.

11:24He only had eight sacks last year, but he was fifth in the league in overall pressures.

11:28Like he gets to the quarterback. It's just a matter of being able to finish.

11:32And so if he just, again, converts five more of those than he did a year ago.

11:37And I think it would be kind of a narrative thing too, because I think if the Jaguars, we're not, we're talking

11:43about them as a good defense, but we're not really talking about them as like the Eagles or the Rams of like,

11:49they could be the best in football. But if they are the second or third best defense in football, and it's because he's racking up 15 sacks.

11:56If I'm picking a long shot, I kind of like that.

11:59I like the idea of closing the gap between the pressure numbers and the sack numbers and that being the driving force behind it.

12:06I think that's a good thing to pick up on.

12:08All right, let's get to offensive player of the year.

12:11Dave, who was your pick for offensive player of the year?

12:14This is an obvious pick, but I've been convicted on it since we got into preview mode.

12:19And I talked about it in that division preview.

12:21I think he is the leading odds getter. She is by a lot, actually.

12:25Jameer Gibbs just makes so much sense when you consider the offensive infrastructure, the lack of competition for touches.

12:30They got the quarterback. They got the continuity on offense.

12:33Jameer Gibbs, I mean, he's seventh in rushing since entering the league.

12:36He's third in yards per carry. He's third in rushing touchdowns.

12:39He's fourth in explosive runs, second in 20-plus yard runs.

12:42He averages 11 20-plus yard runs per season. And that was all while sharing a backfield with another qualified back.

12:47And I'm sure over the course of the year, for one reason or another, something will crop up that eats into his overall touch load.

12:54But if he's relatively healthy, I expect his numbers to be Bijon adjacent.

12:58And I think the Lions will have a better record than the Falcons.

13:01And the dirty truth is you can't win an award like this going 7-10.

13:05Yeah, team success matters. But you can win an award like this going 10-7.

13:09Or if the Lions are even better than that, it's, I mean, he's the favorite for a reason.

13:14But this was one where I really didn't feel like I had to overthink it at all.

13:18So he's also my choice. I just think the path for all of those touches in an offense that I expect to be really explosive.

13:25We've talked about this. The Lions schedule was not very good.

13:28I think the defense has a chance to be shaky at best in the early part of the season before Brian Branch

13:34gets back, even if I don't think they're going to be a total disaster because I like a lot of the things that they have up front.

13:41But if this team has to win a lot of games, like 35 to 31, I just think the offense has a chance to put up crazy numbers.

13:49And him getting more touches, like it helps him in terms of putting up the numbers, obviously.

13:54But also I think it's kind of like a narrative boost because coming into the league, it was like, how many touches can you really give Jameer Gibbs?

14:01And he had to split time and all this stuff.

14:04And so if you get a season where it's like, oh, he really can just get 380 touches and he's going to be able to handle the load.

14:12I do think that that would do some work for him for sure.

14:15320 is his max. So he had 320 touches last year for about 1,840 yards from scrimmage.

14:20And we've talked about this. Their running game last year just was not very good.

14:24His overall numbers, he still averaged 5 yards to carry because he's so explosive.

14:28But they were not consistent down to down last year as a run game.

14:31I think it would be better this year with at least moderately improved play on the interior and the amount of touches he's going to get.

14:38I think he's just a really safe bet. There's a reason.

14:41I think he's like plus 550 in a lot of these places.

14:45He's almost. And Bichon's like plus 900. I was going to say he's significantly more highly favored than Bichon.

14:50Going and looking at some of the long shots, I didn't have anybody that I felt all that excited about.

14:55I mean, there are plenty of guys I think you can make a case for.

14:59I actually thought for a lot of the reasons that we just said, some of the environmental considerations.

15:04I'm on Ross St. Brown at 25 to 1.

15:07If you just look at the consistent work that he has gotten.

15:10I don't remember where I said this. I think I might have said it maybe during our fantasy draft that we did at Best Intentions.

15:17I remember reading this out loud recently. I'm on Ross St.

15:20Brown's last three seasons. 117 for 1,411. 115 for 1263 and 12.

15:23119 for 1,510. Yeah. Just imagine yelling that across a bar.

15:26It's just it's insane how consistent it's been. And so let's just say it hits that again.

15:31He has a few more plays downfield. He finishes the year with.

15:34I mean, he's already done it. But let's just say theoretically finishes the year with 1,600 receiving yards rather than 15, 15,

15:40and that goes to 14 or 15 touchdowns. That's an offensive player of the year caliber season as a receiver.

15:45And so I just don't think you have to push him that far to get to that place for him to be 25 to 1.

15:52Like you look at the odds of other guys he's around like Nico Collins.

15:56That's just not happening. Well, I honestly, that one's not crazy because it would have to be like JSN.

16:01Well, the sheer amount of targets that Nico Collins might get within that offense.

16:05But I just don't know if I trust that passing game to be good enough.

16:09And then AJ Brown's like right around there to.

16:11Maybe AJ Brown could put together a season like that.

16:14But I just think I'm on Ross St. Brown.

16:17When you think about the consolidation and the consistency of the workload, there is a path for me for him to get

16:23there compared to some of the other guys that he's sitting around.

16:26Like CeeDee Lamb has similar odds. I just don't see that.

16:29The Cowboys receivers scared me because they're both in that offense.

16:32Is it 40 to 1? That's somewhat interesting. But I just don't know how you get the work if CeeDee's healthy for most of the season.

16:39You won't be surprised to hear this. If you listen to the division previews, I think my opinions at least are not going to be surprising.

16:46But 75 to 1? Jalen Waddell has a tasty little treat.

16:49I did see that and I was like, that seems really long.

16:52If he goes... Jalen Waddell has not had 75 catches.

16:55He hasn't had more than 75 catches since 2022.

16:57Obviously, he was sharing the offense with Tyreek Hill for the bulk of that.

17:01And then the Dolphins passing offense just kind of fell off last year.

17:05If Bo Nix funnels the offense through him and he is really good.

17:08And another thing... He led the league in past attempts last year, Bo Nix did.

17:12Led the league. I try so hard to think narratively about this stuff.

17:16Jalen Waddell's the only thing that's different. And so if the Broncos offense is awesome, it's easy to imagine people pointing at

17:22it and saying, well, Jalen Waddell changed everything for the Denver Broncos.

17:25He's the offensive player of the year. I don't think that's likely, but that's why he's 75 to 1.

17:30Put $5 on that, I don't think you're going to regret it.

17:33It's a falling resort. I mean, that's basically how Barkley won it.

17:37Yeah, absolutely. Who was yours? So my actual pick was a nod, Jameer Gibbs.

17:41Mine was Justin Jefferson. I like that as well.

17:43And I think he's a somewhat long shot. Yeah, he's like...

17:46What is it? He's like 16-ish to 1? Yeah, it's like in the mid-teens to 1.

17:50And he's like 5th overall in odds, which... That's probably the lowest...

17:54You're so in. I am. You are so in.

17:56You've talked yourself in so hard for the Kyler and Minnesota thing.

17:59It's a couple of things. One, and I said this on our draft.

18:03Justin Jefferson's average season before last year was 99 catches, 1,480 yards, and 8 touchdowns.

18:07That's an average season for him. And that includes missing seven games in 2023.

18:11And so I just think him getting quarterback play that is anything than what he got last year, I think, can get him there.

18:17And this also is probably like the longest odds you might ever get on Justin Jefferson, winning this award.

18:22Like, if you think about it that way. Like, the middle of the second round in every single fantasy draft.

18:28There's a chance that just Justin Jefferson wins you every league that you have Justin Jefferson.

18:32You'll never get to buy low like that on him again.

18:35I just don't... I think it's more so that...

18:38It's not that I'm out on the Vikings offense.

18:40I just don't think I believe at this stage quite as strongly as you do because I think Kyler is such a

18:46specific kind of player that there's enough guesswork involved in what it's going to look like that I just can't get myself fully there.

18:53That's one way I got to see it. Yeah.

18:55I just... I have to see it over like a one or two week span for me to actually get a sense

19:01of exactly what it's going to be for me to fully believe in it.

19:05I like how it varies between the three of us, but everybody's got the thing that they're just wholesaling on sight unseen.

19:11But then at the same time, you're like, I got to see it.

19:14I need three weeks with this before I can believe in it.

19:18Sometimes that stuff just happens where there's something about it.

19:20And again, it's just like with Kyler, it's the areas of the field that he accesses.

19:25And if we're going to have... If you have an entire season with Justin Jefferson where the intermediate middle of the field

19:31is just off limits, can he have the sort of season where he's the offensive player of the year?

19:36I think he can. He probably can. He's good enough for it.

19:39But it's just like... It does make it harder to get there.

19:42That's kind of my thought. If there isn't a world where he can have that new clear season because the offense has

19:48to paint itself into a corner a little bit in the areas that it can attack and what it looks like, is

19:54that enough for him to lose out even if he could have a much better season than he did a year ago?

20:00There's just... There's enough uncertainty about what it looks like in practice with a guy that is just unlike any other quarterback

20:06in the league for the most part that I'd have to see it before I believe it.

20:11I get it. All right. Let's take our first quick break and then come back and chat about a couple coaches.

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20:36All right. Coach of the Year. This is another one that obviously we have a sense of what coaches of the year have looked like over time.

20:43We understand what the archetype for people who win this award look like.

20:47I find it fascinating that the two leaders in Coach of the Year ads right now are John Harbaugh and Jesse Venter.

20:53I feel like that's pretty perfect. There's something really telling about that.

20:56And even still, beyond that, the three leading candidates in terms of odds are all new head coaches, which that shouldn't be

21:02surprising to us at all, because that's typically who wins this award.

21:05Derek, who is your pick for Coach of the Year in 2026?

21:09Mine actually is Jesse Venter, because I just think that there's a chance that like, I don't think the most likely outcome

21:15is the Ravens win 14 games, but I think it's absolutely on the board that the defense is just awesome again and

21:21Lamar looks great and they win 13, 14 games and it's like, okay, he brought this team back to what it's supposed to look like.

21:28Yeah, it's the idea of Vega U1A and Trey Hendrickson enough to take away from the idea that Jesse Venter could take

21:33the same roster in Baltimore for the most part that didn't make the playoffs last year and turn them into the number one seed in the AFC.

21:41It's not hard to imagine at all. They have the highest over under of any team in the AFC.

21:46It's 11 and a half games. You think they have to be like one seed caliber?

21:50No, no, I don't think so. I think that's often for quarterbacks that has to happen.

21:55But if they're an 11 or 12 win team in the winter of the AFC North after missing the playoffs last year,

22:01that's more than enough to put you in position to be coach of the year.

22:05Especially if the defense feels like the Ravens. That's another part of it, right?

22:09And that's the best example where the offense has been really good over the last couple years.

22:13The defense since Mike McDonald left just hasn't been at that level.

22:16And he is working with outside of Trey Hendrickson.

22:19And I know that's a real consideration. But for the most part, it's the same defensive roster that we've had over the last couple years.

22:26If you take that from a middle of the pack, slightly under, slightly below average defense from last year, and you turn

22:32it into the third best defense in the league, it's very easy to paint the picture and tell that story.

22:37It's a clean sweep. I had men or two for all of the reasons that y'all just outlined.

22:42But that makes me itchy because it's boring. And that so it is.

22:46It's a boring award, though. And I think it's the award that pisses me off the most consistently because of the of

22:51the things we weigh when we award it. I just think it's really difficult to figure out the exact right parameters for

22:57it, because if you have a good team and you just do a good job with that good roster, you're never going to get it.

23:04But there are a couple of guys that I think fit that bill to a degree that I did like as long shots.

23:11What if the Seahawks are just like 15 and two?

23:13Yeah, just like do it again. Because you're not you're very.

23:16I think they would have to be for the coach of the reigning champions to win this.

23:21But I don't think that's off the table. I don't.

23:24I think that there there is a chance that the Seahawks are just so good again.

23:28And we can build on this idea of people weren't paying enough attention to the Seahawks.

23:32They're better than you think they are. And the reason that I think this is possible for Seattle in a way that

23:38it might not be possible for another team. And Mike McDonald at 40 to one is the long shot that I'm talking about.

23:44There is no consolidation of credit on Seattle's roster.

23:47There's no Lamar. There's no Josh Allen. The offense is you have the offense player of the year from last year, but

23:53no one's going to be like, oh, yeah, the reason that the Seahawks are great is because of JSN, because it's driven by the defense.

24:00Right. And the fact that the defense doesn't have one standalone superstar among that group, who is the most famous member of the Seahawks defensive ecosystem?

24:07To people outside of the Seattle building right now.

24:09Spoon, maybe just because he was a top five pick.

24:12It's probably Spoon, but even that doesn't like. He's not as famous as Sir Tan.

24:16We're talking about the enough, the football watching populace in general.

24:19I don't think Spoon in that category is like this household name.

24:22Well, the argument that I would make is it's Mike McDonald.

24:25Yeah, probably. And so I think that those circumstances just put him in a slightly different position than a coach of a

24:31reigning Super Bowl champion might ever be. Because I think that in a lot of ways, the Patriots won Super Bowls like this, but Tom Brady was there.

24:39Yeah. And so this is just so different. Like the entire conversation around them changes because of who the best players are,

24:45what the team feels like, why it feels that way.

24:48And so Mike McDonald really building on last year and having this kind of runaway case of, is he just the best coach in the league?

24:55I don't think that would surprise me if that unfolded over the course of this year.

24:59So at 40 to one, I at least think that's interesting.

25:02I think that's, that would be fun if it happened because coaches like coaches of good teams, just being ineligible to win this award has always been bullshit.

25:10So it would be fun if he were able to buck that trend.

25:13Dan Campbell's 20 to one. That's what I was about.

25:16I think that's a pretty good one. He's at 25 to one on the side.

25:20I'm looking at his long odds when you compare it to the favorites.

25:23Considering you want to talk about household name. And even with all the star power on that roster, Dan Campbell is like the face of that organization.

25:31Yeah. And if they go from worst to first and if they stack a lot of wins, which I'm going to talk

25:37about later in the show, like if, I mean, if Detroit has a surprisingly good record, be good for this guy who has the lions in the windspool.

25:44So I could absolutely see that. And like, he's come close to winning this award before.

25:49The fact that he never has. Yeah. I think also makes it a fun choice because he should have.

25:54And there are multiple years where he had a really strong case and you can make an argument for him and he never has won it.

26:01Bringing the lions back from what they were is like, he deserves some sort of like, yeah, like he deserves hardware for

26:07having done what he's done, even if it should have happened already.

26:10Yeah. Yeah. The, the, in 2024 would have been the season that he would have done it.

26:15Obviously the Vikings won it that year. And, uh, or kind of kind of want it that year.

26:20Cause the Vikings won 14 games, the entire Sam Darnold part of that.

26:23But the way that Dan Campbell put together that lions team and how good that lions team was, that would have been the year.

26:30And so I think this could be a way of rewarding him maybe in the aftermath of never having won it before, despite having some really impressive seasons.

26:37Let's talk about offensive rookie of the year. Derek, who was your pick for offensive rookie of the year?

26:43I actually went the boring route. One of the two boring routes, I think.

26:46And I think it was easy to come off of this after the preseason, but I kind of still think Carnell Tate's going to be really, really good.

26:54And so I just went with interesting. And I don't know.

26:57I'm if, if, if you tell me Fernando Mendoza plays 12 games, it will probably be Fernando Mendoza.

27:02I think there's enough murkiness there that I'm not willing to just like jump head into that.

27:06I can't bet on it. I can't, I can't pick a guy that I don't know when he's going to get into the line.

27:13Yeah. It just makes it. I mean, even if I'm wrong about that, because like, again, I'm not saying Kirk Cousins is

27:19going to light the world on fire, but like when Jacoby Brissett was ahead of Drake May, it was very obvious that

27:25that just wasn't going to last for very long.

27:27And I don't know how long Kirk is going to play again, but I, again, I think there's a little bit more uncertainty there.

27:34So I just still think that Carnell Tate is going to be really good.

27:38I know the preseason was weird for him and for the offense in general, but top five receiver.

27:43I still think he's very good at a lot of things and gives the offense something that they very obviously did not have last year.

27:49So I'm still willing to ride with him. This also might be partly just like Jeremiah Love is not healthy walking into week one.

27:56So he's going to play though. Yeah, but he's going to be ready.

27:59It's not that he's not going to play, but like him going into the season with health issues.

28:04I was like, I don't love that. I understand that.

28:07I still just think if you look at all the factors playing into it, Jeremiah Love is my pick.

28:12I just feel I have enough systemic concerns about the state of the Titans offense where picking anyone in that offense would worry me.

28:19I get that. The idea that Carnell Tate gets like 90 targets, but catches 55 of them for 700 yards is not

28:25that crazy to me, which is probably fairly likely.

28:27Like I do think that that's like a relatively likely outcome.

28:30I think when when I got down to that, I think I just didn't feel that much better about the Cardinals ecosystem either.

28:36I think the offense has a chance to be decently fun.

28:39I think the Titans offense has a chance to be decently fun.

28:43I don't know if I'm going to like watching it, but I think that we're a little bit burned by how the preseason looked.

28:49I think that they can be better. Here's my question for you, Robert.

28:53How good do you think the Cardinals can be this year?

28:56Does it matter though? I think it does. And that's what I was going to bring up is like, if you let,

29:02if you look back through recent offensive rookie of the year winners, they don't have to be good teams, but you don't

29:08see a lot of winners on dog shit teams.

29:10And I think the Cardinals unfortunately might have dog shit potential.

29:13I just feel like he has, I mean, you look at this year's draft class specifically, it's such a weird class of skilled position players.

29:20There's like the positions and the situations those guys are in.

29:23I just don't know how many guys have a better pathway to the right combination of production and team success.

29:28All the guys that I think have a route to production, I just don't have faith in how good those teams are going to be.

29:35Right? I mean, it's like the other guys that are up there.

29:38I don't think the Titans are going to be very good.

29:41I don't think the Browns are going to be very good.

29:44The Browns were like the Browns receivers talent wise.

29:47I would want to pick them. There's no shot with that quarterback.

29:50And just how many other skilled position players are worth picking in this way?

29:54And the fact that Mendoza isn't going to play in a one quarterback draft.

29:58It's just a very weird year. It is a weird year.

30:01For rookie skill position players. And I think that's why I'm just tempted to be like, let's just go with Jeremiah Love.

30:07He's going to get 280 carries and he's probably going to do a decent work with them.

30:11And so if he finishes the year with like 1150 rushing yards and eight touchdowns and no one else really does anything,

30:17that to me feels like a not far off possibility for this group specifically.

30:21The 2019 Cardinals went 5-10-1 when Kyler won it.

30:23And the 2020 Chargers went 7-9 when Justin Herbert won it.

30:26Those are quarterbacks though. And like with everything that Jeremiah Love is going to be depending on to be successful.

30:32I just, I think you kind of need to be frisky to win this award.

30:36And you're right though. It is a weird year.

30:38Who do you think is going to be frisky enough to win it?

30:42I think Jadarian Price has a runway to be the bell cow for the defending Super Bowl champs.

30:47And like, I just don't think he'll get the work.

30:50Zach Charbonnet will be back eventually. But if he takes it and runs with it, I mean, if Jadarian Price runs for

30:56a thousand yards and six touchdowns for a team that makes the playoffs, that seems really straightforward.

31:00I think it totally depends on when Charbonnet comes back and how much they want to split up the carries.

31:06This is also a question. I don't, I probably know the answer to this.

31:09Whether they've come out and said it's kind of an organizational decision to split the work in a way that we used

31:15to, or whether that was mostly a Clint Kubiak consideration.

31:18I assume it might be a little bit of both.

31:21I don't know. But I just think that there's reason to believe based on history that when Charbonnet gets back, he'll cut

31:27into it enough to limit the amount of total work that Jadarian Price can get over the course of the season.

31:33It's entirely possible. In the story I'm telling myself, by week four, it's just like, okay, Zach.

31:37Maybe he's so good. Don't take your time, Zach.

31:40We want you just like. He's totally healthy. Yeah.

31:42If he has like a crazy first month and it just gets implanted in everyone's mind and then nobody else runs away with it.

31:49It's like he might just like. It's a good choice.

31:51I tried it out for the whole year. Having said that, I really love my long shot here and it doesn't apply

31:57to anything I just said about friskiness. But Casey Concepcion at 18 to one.

32:01I hear your concerns. I want to. He's my answer as well.

32:04He, I, this could age so poorly, but I feel like he might be quarterback proof a because of his ability to get separation type of targets.

32:12He's going to get the type of target. Manus that are so many touches for him in the office.

32:17Montan is smart. He's going to draw up easy looks for him.

32:20Monken drew up nine rushing touches per year for Zay Flowers.

32:23And that was when he had Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry.

32:26Yeah. He's going to do more than that for Casey Concepcion.

32:29There's going to be easy targets near the line of scrimmage.

32:32Also, he's expected to be the punt returner. I know that's not technically offense, but like if he does some crazy shit as a returner.

32:39Returns one or two that puts you in the conversation in a different way.

32:43I, yeah, eight, 18 to one. And, and the amount that I expect Monken to draw up for him is, is very intriguing.

32:49He was also my choice. And again, I think that the schemed up touches and just how central he is to the offensive plan as part of that.

32:57But again, we're talking about so many players just in really bad situations.

33:00It's not winning this award. It's not a great year.

33:03It's a weird year. Even going back to the fantasy thing.

33:06Like, can you imagine, can you remember a fantasy season, Beller, where there were so few players that people were excited about,

33:12especially in the recent times when receivers are so central to like draft strategy and getting ahead of those guys.

33:17There's this year has just been so strange. There were more quarterbacks two years ago than there were total guys this year.

33:23Yes. Which I think speaks to just what this group of players is.

33:27In any other year. From a statistical production standpoint.

33:29In any other year, Carnell Tate would be such a sought after fantasy asset as we go into the season.

33:35And even that, even he has been one of those guys where it's like, what round is he going in?

33:40And it's not, it's not very high. And I think that just speaks to the overall enthusiasm for the class.

33:45And again, the fact that love was hurt, like it just been one of the weirder preseasons for an entire skill position

33:51group of rookies that I can remember. All right, let's get to defensive rookie of the year.

33:56Derek, I'm going to let you start this off because I think I know who your answer is.

34:01And mine is the same one. It's Reuben Bain.

34:03Oh, really? I think so. Okay. I am bought in on.

34:06We're aligned. I am bought in. So you're not aligned.

34:09Derek and I are in on Reuben Bain. I figured you meant Arvel Reese, who I think is a very good bet.

34:15Arvel Reese, I think it's, I think there's a chance that he has the more like, holy shit, what did that guy just do plays?

34:22But I do think like I'm bought in on the Bucs defense as a whole, which I think can narratively work for Reuben Bain.

34:28If Reuben Bain gets eight and a half, nine sacks for a Bucs defense that kind of surges and looks like a

34:34top 10 unit again, and they win the NFC South.

34:37You're like, they drafted Reuben Bain to be this like attitude difference maker.

34:41And oh my God, he is. He's guaranteed to get a lot of snaps.

34:44He plays a position that lends itself to a good statistical resume and the team could win the division.

34:50Yeah. It's a very straightforward case. Not to shit on Arvel Reese.

34:53I'm really excited about him, but I imagine, I imagine Arvel Reese being the guy where like us and Ted Nguyen are talking about it in week eight.

35:00And we're just like, Jesus Christ, did you see what he did to that lead blocker right there?

35:05And like the actual statistical performance isn't amazing. He's just a very fun player.

35:09I guess there had been, when I was looking back at history recently, I guess I thought there had been more off-ball

35:15linebackers who had won it in part because it's a position where you can rack up on consequential sets.

35:20Right. Right. If he has a shitload of tackles and he has four or five really impressive splash plays.

35:25But before Carson Schlesinger won it last year, the last off-ball linebacker to win defense player of the year was Shaq Leonard.

35:31I guess I just don't really remember that. It's most, it mostly has been pass rushers.

35:36And before that, it was Luke Kuechly in 2012.

35:38Like it used to be an award that you could win a lot.

35:42Like there was a run from, I'm looking at it now from like, oh, four to 2009.

35:46It was like Jonathan Vilma. Maybe that's what I have burned into my brain.

35:50I'm looking at the same list. D'Amico Ryan's right after that.

35:53Patrick Willis, Gerard Mayo, Brian Cushing. It was like all these guys won it.

35:57And after, since 2010, it's really only been three of these off-ball linebackers.

36:01And so I think Arvel Reese is like, if I had, if I picked a second person, it probably was going to be Arvel Reese.

36:07But I just think Ruben Bain, because of the team he plays for, the profile that he might have, like I was

36:13pretty excited to see what he's going to do.

36:16I hope Arvel Reese wins it. I picked the Giants in the defense pool.

36:20That would be fantastic for me. I picked the Cowboys.

36:22And that's also why I would be open to the idea of Caleb Downs winning it.

36:27That's one I can get behind. If the Cowboys are a really good team, their defensive turnaround is one of the stories of the season.

36:33If he plays well, that's one where I feel like the narrative element of it could really drive that forward.

36:39Even if his counting stats in any one area aren't going to compare to the off-ball linebackers and the pass rushers.

36:45God, would that piss off Seahawks fans or what?

36:47If like the year after Iman Worry could get over the top, Caleb Downs comes in and does it for the Cowboys.

36:53There's a chance that Downs though, like because he's going to play the role that he's going to play, like kind of

36:59has a smattering of like every possible stat. And I do think that if nobody runs away with it, it's like the

37:05worst case is he has not enough of any of it.

37:08One force fumble, one sack, one interception over the course of the season.

37:11But if he does feel like the linchpin of a defense that gets completely turned around, the problem for him and worry

37:17is again, how many more players on the Seattle defense are more famous or important than Nicky Manwari?

37:22A lot of them. And I do think that they're more central to their success.

37:26Like Witherspoon, Byron, Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams, like those guys are better players on that defense and were better players last year.

37:32There's a chance that other than Quinn and Williams, we get to a place where Caleb Downs on the 17th best defense

37:38in the league or the 15th best defense in the league feels like the second best player by the time the season is over.

37:45I thought about bringing up Quinn and as a long shot for defensive player of the year.

37:50I just, I couldn't get there at the end of the day.

37:53That would be, I just don't know if the, even if you're bullish on the defense, I'm just not sure the defense

37:59can be good enough to justify something like that.

38:01All right. So I had Arvo Reese as my winner for the reasons that we said, I just think that there's a

38:07chance that you look at what he did in the preseason.

38:10Like it was killing people the entire year, even if it's a hard position to win the award from huge market, there'll

38:16be a ton of attention on him. If the defense is better than we expect, if they're the unit that actually really

38:22does turn it around, that's probably one more level of nation that is going to matter an award like this, but their

38:28run defense was so just heinously bad last year.

38:31If it's a good group this year, in part because of what he's doing, maybe that can lend to it, but that's,

38:37there are plenty of reasons why I thought he would be a fun pick.

38:40My long shot. What about Peter Woods at 40 to one?

38:43I had, I had the other chief defensive lineman.

38:46I had our Mason Thomas. I really looked at it.

38:48We're really, we're very, you'll play enough to do that.

38:51That's my only concern. Here's my argument. He doesn't need to play that much.

38:55And I know preseason stats are bullshit, but just bear with me.

38:58He had eight pressures in a sack across 48 pass rushes in the, in the preseason.

39:03See your pick too? He was my random ass thing that you guys both to land on.

39:07I have two. Well, I have two long shots, which the other one's going to make Derek very happy too.

39:13We can get to that in a moment. 65 to one though.

39:16If our Mason Thomas is purely a DPR and he has like a 20% win rate on those attempts.

39:21And let's say the chiefs get back to the playoffs and they're good.

39:25And he just randomly has like eight sacks defense turning around young guys.

39:28Yeah. It's the, it's, it's such a long shot that it's ridiculous, but watching him rush the passer in the preseason got me excited enough to daydream.

39:36It's a narrow path, but like, but if I'm looking at the other names in this, in this list, like Zion young is not far from him there.

39:43I just don't think he'll get the counting stats for that.

39:46Caleb banks. Who knows if he's even going to play Gabe Aukis is ahead of him.

39:50I just don't think he can put up the counting stats.

39:53Like if you really do want like a long, long shot, there is a chance that our Mason Thomas just gets like

39:59our Mason Thomas just benefiting from one-on-ones because Chris Jones and Peter Woods are ruining everyone.

40:04That was my best. Yeah. Yeah. Which like he could like, Woods is a player that I was obviously really high on coming out of the draft.

40:11And he's again, if he even looking at Peter was some of the players around him, it's like Keldrick Falk and CJ Allen have the same odds.

40:18I would much rather bet, bet on PJ or Cedar Woods than either of those players.

40:23I was at the similar players I was looking at.

40:26I do think this is a great opportunity to talk about something that we didn't have a chance to address because it happened after our AFC East preview.

40:33The dolphins cut Tyrell Dotson to get Jacob Rodriguez into the starting lineup.

40:37I don't think the dolphins are going to be very good, but Jacob Rodriguez might have 180 tackles this year.

40:42And if he displays half the nose, there'll be eight yards past the line.

40:46I mean, that might be true, but if enough of them look real, if enough of them look good.

40:51And also, I mean, these are college stats. I get it.

40:54But his final year in college, he had 11 TFLs, seven forced fumbles and four picks.

40:58If he displays any sort of that nose for the football that endeared him to draft people so much.

41:04Hundred and 130 tackles with three interceptions. And he's like one of the only bright spots for the dolphins could be very

41:10similar to Carson Schlesinger just last year. It's kind of hard for me to believe that that'll happen two years in a

41:16row, but I know Derek would be excited. Oh, yeah.

41:18Let's do assistant coach of the year. I, this was the most boring one for me because they, the two guys I

41:24landed on without looking at the odds are the two favorites, the two betting favorites.

41:28And I was like, well, that's not that exciting, but Mike McDaniel.

41:32Yes. Yeah. I mean, I, I, I picked Mike McDaniel.

41:34I just think he has, it's new. It's exciting.

41:37If that group really does explode, it would just be so easy.

41:40So I, that, that was my very boring pick.

41:42And the other one that I would throw out there was Vic Fangio.

41:46Yeah. Like, and it's, it's, this is also the muddy, the waters are muddied with this award specifically because so many coaches are play callers now.

41:53So many head coaches are the play callers on their side of the ball.

41:57Now that even if you think a unit is going to take a big step forward, like the Ravens defense, for example,

42:03well, Jesse Minter calls the Ravens defense. And so it, or the Cowboys, right?

42:07The Cowboys offense is really good this year. Okay.

42:09Well, Brian Schottenheimer calls the Cowboys offense. And so I think the list of potential guys that could even win this is smaller than it's probably ever been.

42:17And so that's why I think I just, it was easy to zero in on the two betting favorites.

42:22And I also think with the charges one, it's, it's very easy to see the world where the offense is really good

42:28and exciting, but like not nearly good enough to get Justin Herbert, the MVP, in which case Mike McDaniel is like the obvious.

42:34Or the team isn't good enough. Right. Yeah. I mean, that's, that's the other part of it.

42:39And that, that's honestly, when we talk about MVP here in a second, there are guys that I would be really excited

42:45about just in terms of their own production this year.

42:47But we know how important team success is to winning the MVP.

42:51Matthew Stafford not being on the one seed last year is an outlier historically.

42:54For the most part, that's how it works. And again, it gets to the weirdness of the Seahawks where in another season,

43:00their quarterback probably would have been the MVP, but that's just not going to happen with the type of offense that they have.

43:07Sam Darnold, individual production, all of that stuff. So even if you think the Chargers can have the third best offense in

43:13the league, is the defense going to be good enough for them to win 14 games and get Justin Herbert, the MVP?

43:19Maybe not. But in those circumstances, Mike McDaniel can be the assistant coach of the year.

43:23I was surprised that Jim Leonard didn't have better odds.

43:26He's 35 to one on the site. I'm looking at, and we laid this out in the preview, but he is, he's calling plays for the defense.

43:33And again, that's a really good one. Similar to what I said about Jalen Waddle.

43:37Like he's the new thing. Like if the bills were 20th in defensive DVOA last year, I think they were 11th the year before that.

43:44If he comes in and the bills are a top 10 unit and it turns them into the one seed or the

43:50two seed, especially a year after they didn't even win the division for the first time in a while.

43:55It's easy to circle him and say, well, Jim Leonard got here and that's been the difference for why the bills look

44:01like they might finally get to the Super Bowl.

44:03I have to believe in that as somebody who has the bills in the defense draft.

44:08So I might as well have picked him. Well, speaking of that, I kind of like Patrick Grant 50 to one.

44:14Yeah. He's a guy who's like, yep. We, we kind of know his name, but he's not really had that moment.

44:19The Steelers defense has enough talent to make it work.

44:22But I think we felt for a couple of years now, like, okay, they've got the talent, but why aren't they a little bit better than they are?

44:30And I just think that there's a chance that he can get them there.

44:33And so 50 to one, like I, I really liked his odds.

44:37Who was your actual choice? Uh, Mike McDaniel. Okay.

44:39And then who was yours, Dave? I just went with Leonard.

44:42Oh, okay. Yeah. Okay. That's great. I like that.

44:45I actually think that's a really, that's a really fun choice.

44:48The other one that to me, isn't that fun, but is a longer shot than Mike McDaniel or McFangio.

44:53And I think you could easily understand the path that would get you there is Chris Shula.

44:57Yeah. If the Rams defense is just, and maybe the players take away from that and maybe that's the reason, but I

45:03also just think if they're, they're average, they're allowing 14 points a game and they're the number one defense in the league.

45:09I think the defensive coordinator of that team, I think Shula is going to be working against the amount of talent.

45:15And I would say something similar for drew Petsing, just because there's so much continuity and star power on that Detroit offense.

45:21And the other guy throw out there, that's in almost the exact same situation.

45:25We don't really talk about him that much because he took over play calling halfway through the last year.

45:30It's Matt Burke. It's the reason Matt Burke wouldn't win.

45:33And I also think that the Texans are limited narratively just by how they play.

45:37Yeah. And the coaching staff is just never going to get that much credit because of what that defense looks like.

45:42It's structurally. It's that. And because of the way they play, it's like it, a great season out of their defense will

45:48inevitably mean 17 sacks from one of their, you know what I mean?

45:52It's like, where it's like with the Seahawks defense, it's like, sure, guys are going to put up numbers, but it feels

45:58a little bit more well-rounded in terms of like, where the plays are happening.

46:02It's not driven by the star power. It's just not.

46:04Not narratively, at least. Right. We don't think of the Seahawks defense as one of those groups, even if there are a

46:10lot of really good players in the Seahawks defense.

46:13For how much we've talked about him dating back all the way to January, you should at least mention Christian Parker.

46:19He's 14 to one. I can't do that. If, I mean, I'll, I'll present it for you.

46:23I mean, Dan Quinn won this award when he turned the Cowboys defense around.

46:27Like it or not. That was still, they were like the number one defense in the league.

46:32No, they were. They were incredible. Free defense. I just don't think they have that sort of gear to them.

46:37Going from, I think the cow, that sort of improvement from 32nd and DVOA to 14th is really important for the quality of the Cowboys season.

46:44I'm not sure voters are looking at that sort of turnaround and saying that's the assistant coach of the year.

46:50I think you have to be like a top three unit to do that.

46:53Counterpoint America's team. Unfortunately, that is a very real thing.

46:56Goes a long way. All right. Protector of the year, which was obviously we did the first one last year.

47:02Joe Tooney wins that award. Who is your pick for protector of the year, Derek?

47:06I, again, I find myself buying in on this team.

47:08I think it's going to be Tristan Wirfs. I also picked Tristan Wirfs.

47:12I just think that this offensive line in general, if relatively healthy, is going to return to form.

47:17And he is just obviously the cornerstone of that thing.

47:19And so I think if the Bucs offense looks fun again and they can run the ball, Tristan Wirfs is going to

47:25be an all pro and I have like enough questions about some of the other guys that like, or not questions about

47:31some of the other guys, but it just, again, feels like narratively, if the Bucs find their level, it's like, oh yeah,

47:37it's because Tristan Wirfs and the offensive line are incredible again.

47:40We had this award for one year and he didn't play.

47:43Yeah. First month of the season. That was one of the only reasons he wasn't in that conversation last year.

47:49And so I just think you could make a really solid argument right now that Tristan Wirfs is the best offensive lineman

47:55in the league and full season healthy with that group back healthy.

47:58It's just not hard for me to picture that conversation about Tristan Wirfs specifically.

48:02I like being the guy that focuses on narrative while y'all focus on who's actually the best.

48:06I do love Tristan Wirfs, but Panay Sewell is switching.

48:09Yeah. And if he's great at left tackle right out of the gate, which is not fair because Tristan Wirfs did this

48:15before protector of the year was an award. I'm sorry, Tristan.

48:18It's not my call. But if Panay Sewell switches to left tackle and plays at an all pro level seamlessly, and if

48:24the Lions are successful, which you might be sensing a theme that I think that's going to happen.

48:29I just I think this might be a no brainer.

48:32If he's like an all pro caliber left tackle after being in the conversation for these sorts of awards as a right tackle.

48:38Just write. Just write it off already. Or the other thing, too, is Lane Johnson Lifetime Achievement Award if he can stay healthy this year.

48:45Yeah. And that might be a that might be a diplomatic way to like get out of deciding who's better between Panay

48:51Sewell and Tristan Wirfs or whoever else. They gave a Lifetime Achievement Award to Joe Tooney last year.

48:56Yeah. Even though Joe Tooney was fantastic last year.

48:58But I still think that there's part of a we've never had this award before.

49:02Let's toss it to the guys who've been really good for a really long time.

49:06I wouldn't be surprised if Lane had that type of season.

49:09Lane's missed nine games the last two years. If he can play 15 or more games and if he looks like Lane

49:15Johnson doing it, that wouldn't be surprising. My long shot.

49:18I Christian Darasaw 35 to one. That's what I had.

49:21Christian Darasaw. I believe it. That's one of those where I believe how excited they are about Christian Darasaw.

49:26I mean, the talent is undeniable and he's been pretty close to those peaks before already.

49:30If he can be healthy and he can play at the level they expect him to play at, I think 35 to

49:36one is probably too long of odds. Who was your staff?

49:39I actually didn't have one. I'm just looking through it right now.

49:42I'm sorry. The protector of the year award, our odds aren't exactly floating around the internet.

49:47Protector of the year award long shot. Yeah, don't be sad about that.

49:50Or sorry about that. If I was going to pick a long shot here, I mean, the odds here aren't even that long, but maybe Quentin Nelson.

49:58Again, like you talk about lifetime achievement awards. Like if the Colts offensive line is good again, if the offense is good

50:04again and he looks like the best guard in football.

50:06I think I saw recently, like recently he's gunning for another major contract extension.

50:10I could see that. All right, let's get to the big one.

50:13MVP. Who is your 2026 NFL MVP, Derek? I already feel so dumb for doing it, but I'm going to say Dak Prescott.

50:20Listen, let's go. All of my, my entire agenda would come into place if Dak Prescott won the MVP this year.

50:25So I'm okay with that. Again, I laid this out.

50:28I think when we did, you know, some of the best offensive stuff, but the fact that they were as productive as

50:34they were and as an offense overall, as productive as they were with some of the offensive line stuff.

50:39And I know that Tyler Smith is already going to miss the early part of the season, but I just think second

50:45year in the system, Dak Prescott has had MVP type of highs before.

50:49I feel like the division is kind of theirs for the taking.

50:52Like, I think we're a little bit uncertain about what Philadelphia is going to look like.

50:56And I don't think the other two teams are really in much consideration for it.

51:00I just think that there's a world where they win like 12 games and Dak throws for like close to 5,000 yards.

51:06And it's like, okay. I'd obviously be okay with this.

51:09Cowboys in the wins pool. I just need him to get a couple of those wins against like real deal Super Bowl caliber competition.

51:16That's what held him back in 2023. Yeah. Cowboy fans might not want to talk about that, but like the, the, the marquee wins were not there.

51:23The schedule was horrendous. Yeah. There was a really, really bad.

51:26I'm okay with that choice in that moment, but I absolutely think that there's a path for Dak to win it this year.

51:32He'd probably be one of my favorite bets. It's not a super long shot bet.

51:36Right. But if you look at the odds. But he's not like first or second.

51:40No. But if you look at the odds, I would be interested in that bet.

51:44That's why I don't like picking MVP because like, it's not even like long shots are pointless for MVP.

51:50He's seventh in odds right now. Yeah. Like, I mean, it's hard to identify a candidate who's not the boring favorite or

51:56such a long shot that it's not even worth talking.

51:58Can I give, can I give you one? Of course.

52:01That I actually, so he was, my choice is Lamar Jackson.

52:04I just think that, I don't think it's an accident that every time they have a new offensive system, he wins MVP.

52:10I think the, everything we've heard coming out of Baltimore over the entire off season that he's energized, he's excited.

52:15Like, I think that just happens when things are new and things aren't stale for them there.

52:20And so we talked about it. It's the same reason I think Jesse Minter could win coach of the year.

52:26If that's the number one seed in the AFC, if he has a monster statistical season, I just don't think it's that

52:31hard to picture it for somebody like Lamar Jackson.

52:34I know it's a very boring pick. My long shot that I thought was at least worth bringing up because the odds

52:40are so long and for exactly the things that you're talking about.

52:43What if Jared Goff throws for like 4,800 yards and 40 touchdowns this year for a Lions team that wins 14 games?

52:49Jared Goff is absolutely, I think like Goff, Dak and Herbert all deserve to be mentioned in this conversation of like, you're

52:55a couple things clicking into place from having that type of season.

52:58Jared Goff has to get over the narrative hump, right?

53:01Like he, the Lions offensive success will never be attributed to him in the same way that it will be for other quarterbacks.

53:07Understandably so. When you have that group of skill position players, when you have the two guys I mentioned for offensive player

53:13of the year and the player you mentioned for protector of the year on your offense, it's harder for you to consolidate the credit as a quarterback.

53:21But his numbers over the last four years, since 2022, he's thrown for 4,400 yards every single season.

53:26He's thrown for 30 touchdowns in all but one of those seasons.

53:29And no David Montgomery there now. Let's just say instead of 34 touchdowns, he throws 40 touchdowns and throws for the exact

53:35same amount of yardage for the number two offense in the league for a team that wins more games than we expect.

53:41I just don't think it's that crazy at 35 to one.

53:44Like he has a cleaner path to me than anybody that he's hanging out down there with.

53:48Is he really 30? 35 to one. I'm shocked that it's that low.

53:52Just for a team that we, I mean, I was looking at the odds the other day.

53:57The Lions, I think have the fifth best odds to win the most games.

54:00Which I just think it's, it's there. Like you can see it potentially happen.

54:04He has, he has great value. And I do think being purely a pocket passer, it does like limit your skill.

54:10Like it has to, you have to get to it a particular, you do have to throw 40 touchdowns.

54:15Yes. You're competing with guys who rush for touchdowns and stuff like that.

54:19That's like the starting point is that you have to throw for 40 touchdowns.

54:22But he can do it. And again, the guys that he's around, Sam Darnold has shorter odds.

54:27Jalen Hurts has shorter odds. And Bo Nix has the same odds.

54:30There is no chance I would touch those before thinking about Jared Goff.

54:34I think Jared Goff is at least interesting. I don't understand.

54:37The idea that his baseline is 4,533 touchdowns is like, that's a good baseline to start off of in a conversation like this.

54:43It doesn't make a lick of sense to me that his odds are so far off of Dak and Herbert.

54:48Because I just think of them pretty similarly in terms of their preseason chances of action.

54:53I just think that he'll get far less credit than those guys will.

54:56Even if the production is just as good. But you know, Dak has the offensive or Dak.

55:01I'm not saying this is correct. Dak has the receivers and Herbert has the assistant coach play caller that we haven't been

55:07able to shut up about for 10 months. Like, well, I don't disagree.

55:10I also, I think, I kind of think Justin Herbert is a bad bet to an MVP.

55:15The fact that he is fifth in odds, like, and I think the offense will be good.

55:20Good enough to the point where he can like score 40 touchdowns.

55:23I just, I'm like, it would have to be a truly special season.

55:27Whereas like Jared Goff doing 93% of like the 2016 Mount Ryan, I don't think it's like that crazy.

55:32What if Justin Herbert, his career high in rushing touchdowns is five.

55:35And that was all the way back when he was a rookie.

55:38What if you threw like six rushing touchdowns into the equation on top of obviously a much better statistical season than what

55:44he's done in the last couple of years? I just still think it's a little, I just think so many things outside

55:50of just the quarterback would have to go right for them to be like a top three offense.

55:55Whereas I think with almost all of the other guys here, it's a little bit easier for me to see.

56:00The idea that Jaden Daniels is 20 to one.

56:03I think him and Jordan Love having the same odds is insane to me.

56:07Jordan Love is the other bet I wanted to mention.

56:09Yeah, that is, that was my pick. Yeah, I think you've actually kind of swayed me on the Jared Goff one.

56:15Purely on the numbers. I think like Jordan Love is more likely to actually do it because I just think he's a little bit better of a player.

56:23But like at those odds where Jared Goff's odds are almost twice as long as what Jordan Loves are.

56:28I'm like, that just seems like crazy. I also think the Lions, again, just have a path to win an MVP level of games.

56:34It's cleaner than what the Packers have because of the schedule that they're going to play.

56:39I win about as boring as you can possibly go.

56:42If I had to actually put money down on this, I would bet on Josh Allen.

56:46I just, I would do it again. Shocker of shockers.

56:49He leads the league in rushing touchdowns the last four years.

56:52In addition to what he does as a passer, he's been top five in EPA per play four years running.

56:57I think the Bills are going to win double digit football games.

57:00It's, it's just very easy to see. The other one I throw out, again, schedule's a little lighter and I think they

57:06have a pretty good path to a playoff spot, which we'll talk about here in a second.

57:11This might be the Joe Burrow year. The only thing stopping me from picking and loving up Joe is just that I

57:17did it last year and I just, I don't want to make that my recurring bit, but yeah, I mean, it's very similar to Dak.

57:24Like if, if the defense helps them out enough that they actually win more games than they lose, they get back to the playoffs.

57:30Can I just say, I really do love. And I think like I, I said I would have voted for Drake May

57:36last year, but a nice thing about Stafford winning MVP.

57:39I hope that's a trend. Like I hope, I hope if a worthy candidate is like the five seed in the playoffs,

57:45we could still hold out hope that that would happen.

57:48Like it's bullshit that you have to be the one or the two seed to win MVP.

57:52I don't agree with that. So it's, there have been some bad choices that have been made because of that in the past.

57:58And so if we can drift away from that and pick the people who actually deserve it, I'm totally fine with that.

58:04Uh, what is one more? One more. I'm sorry, because he didn't get any credit when they were the Avengers, but Brock

58:10Purdy was quietly like top three in EPA per play and number one in success rate when he was available last year.

58:16And if he balls like that over the course of 17 games, and it is so beyond obvious that this is not

58:22the Avengers 49ers offense of years past, he could have a really nice statistical case.

58:26They might not be the Avengers, but if Kyle Shanahan is, give me Thanos or whatever, like a galactical.

58:32Yeah. Galactus. Yes. Just any, any sort of like overwhelming force that takes away credit from, from Brock Purdy.

58:37I think that's part of it. Like even if the players are not there, Shanahan always will be and right or wrong.

58:43I do think that chips away at Purdy's case in a situation like this.

58:47Like, yeah. If I'm imagining like a 13 win miracle 49er season where the offense looks top five again, I, I actually

58:53think like Kyle Shanahan coach of the year is a little bit more likely.

58:56Right or wrong. Yeah. Right or wrong. I think that's something that could emerge from that.

59:01All right. Let's take one more quick break and then come back and chat about our playoff picks.

59:06Before we get to our team picks here, we've got something new for you at the athletic this season.

59:11Pick them a pro football is the athletics free weekly prediction game for the 2026 regular season.

59:15We'll be competing in this. You can pick against us and some of the athletics NFL writers as well as Austin Mock's prediction model.

59:22Everyone in the top 100 will win a free year long subscription to the athletic.

59:26Check it out in the athletic app in the pro football pick them hub.

59:30All right. Do you guys want to just list all of your division winners individually?

59:34Do you want to go division by division? What sounds individually?

59:37Yeah. Individual. Yeah. Okay. That feels right. Okay. Let's do it.

59:40If you were talking with your friends about it, you'd be like, all right, I've got this team winning.

59:45Let's do that. Okay. All right. All right. Derek, you start us off.

59:49Who are your division winners in the NFC? In the NFC.

59:52Your playoff teams in the NFC. Playoff team. Okay.

59:54Los Angeles Rams. Duh. Winning the NFC West. In the NFC West.

59:57Yep. Okay. I'll try to do this in some sort of order.

60:00NFC South. I have the Bucks. Okay. I have in the NFC East.

60:04I do have the Dallas Cowboys. The NFC North.

60:06I did pick the Minnesota Vikings. Let's go. Wow.

60:09He believes it. There's going to be one. Let's have some fun.

60:12I don't. I think the case is not that crazy.

60:15I think that there's a chance that they're the most complete team in the division.

60:19I think that there's a chance they all just eat each other and none of them really run away with it.

60:25And also they're plus 450 to win the division, which is the second shortest odds for a last place team.

60:30The Falcons have shorter odds, but that's because everyone in the NFC South is bad.

60:34It's for the opposite reasons. It's for the opposite reasons.

60:37And those implied odds are 18%. It's like an 18% chance implied chance that they can win the division.

60:42That's not nothing. That's it's technically the worst, but that's not nothing.

60:45They absolutely can win the division. Yeah, they can absolutely do it.

60:49We've talked about this all summer. It is the easiest situation I can remember where it isn't even hard to make an argument for every single team.

60:56It's actually very easy to make an argument for every single team.

60:59And they are the hardest to do it, but I just, there's going to be a weird one.

61:04I think the Bears are the hardest to do it.

61:07I'll get there. Do you want me to do my wildcard teams?

61:10Yeah. I have the Detroit Lions at the fifth seed, Seattle Seahawks in the sixth seed, and the Green Bay Packers in the seventh seed.

61:17So I do not have the Chicago Bears. You didn't quite give up on your darlings.

61:21You just, wait, you have them. You have the Packers in the seventh seed?

61:25I have the Packers in the seventh seed. Very unfair.

61:28So I think very unfair. I picked the Eagles in the wind spool and then put the Packers here.

61:33So you also did not pick the Niners to make the playoffs?

61:36I did not pick the Niners to make the playoffs.

61:39I also didn't pick the Niners to make the playoffs.

61:42My teams are. I feel worse about leaving them off.

61:44Well, it's one of those where we'll talk about it.

61:47NFC North, I have the Lions. NFC East, I have the Cowboys.

61:50NFC South, I picked the Saints. F*** it. Who gives a shit?

61:54That's the one where I might as well do something fun.

61:57NFC West, I had the Rams. My wildcard teams, I had Seattle.

62:00I had the Eagles. I just think the defense is so good.

62:03Like even if you have questions about the offense, I think the defense has a chance to be so good.

62:09And then I had the Packers as my seventh seed.

62:11No Bears. There's no upside to me. So no Bears, no Niners?

62:14No Bears, no Niners, no Vikings. No Vikings. Right.

62:17Picking all the playoff teams correctly is upside. What's that?

62:20Picking all the playoff teams correctly. There's some upside to that.

62:23The idea of picking the Bears and then having them miss the playoffs, the downside of that is not worth not picking

62:29the Bears and having to make the playoffs. If the Bears make the playoffs, I get all the satisfaction I need from it.

62:35I don't need to have picked them. The defense leaves me so itchy.

62:38It leaves me so itchy. And with the Niners, honestly, when we did the NFC West preview, it made me go back

62:44and reframe picking them in the wins pool. Because I think in my mind, it's all the offense, the offense, the offense.

62:50And I get that. I'm really concerned about what the front looks like.

62:54Them not having any sort of presence on the interior of their defensive line that I feel good about from a run defense perspective.

63:00If teams are just physically manhandling them on that side of the ball this year, it's just really hard to win as that sort of team.

63:07And so that area of the roster, I probably hadn't been thinking enough about in some of the things I was projecting

63:13onto the Niners over the last few weeks. So that ultimately would help me back combined with all the other injury things that we're worried about.

63:21And then with the Vikings, it's just a mystery box.

63:23Yeah, I mean, down and down. But I literally, under all my picks, the one note I had was I easily think

63:29the Bears, Niners, or Vikings could sneak in easily.

63:32I feel bad leaving the Niners out of the playoffs, but they're in a division with two of the three best teams in the NFL.

63:38And I know they overcame that last year. I don't like the odds of doing it two years in a row.

63:44It's just a math problem. I could just see them being, and we said this, we joked about this in the NFC West preview.

63:51They rarely have a 9-8 forgettable season. Like that just doesn't happen that often to the Niners.

63:55I think this could be the year where the Niners are just, oh, the offense is good.

64:00The defense isn't quite good enough. There are a lot of good teams in the NFL and in the NFC this year.

64:06The Niners are 9-8 and missed the playoffs. I just don't think that's a crazy outcome for this team.

64:11Typically, we have to ascribe some sort of calamity to them for them to miss the postseason.

64:16I don't think you have to do that for them this year.

64:19They're due for just a quiet but not remarkable season.

64:22Yeah, I think that's possible. I have the LA Rams winning the NFC West, the Detroit Lions winning the NFC North.

64:27The Philadelphia Eagles winning the NFC East, just staying through to the bit.

64:31And I've got the Bucs retaking the NFC South.

64:33That just seems very logical to me, even if it is a little boring.

64:37My wild card— I couldn't do it. It just leaves me dead inside.

64:41Just to pick the 10 and 7 Bucs to win the NFC South.

64:44Sometimes there's value in just taking the boring, easy thing.

64:47Like, the team that barely lost the division being healthier is probably good enough to win the division this year.

64:52The Saints defense was better than the Bucs defense last year.

64:55Much, much, much better. The Bucs defense will be better than the Saints defense this year.

65:00How much money do you want to bet on that?

65:02Ooh. How many bets are we going to have going?

65:05I bet like 50 bucks on that. We'll talk after this.

65:08The idea that the Saints defense, per DVOA, finishes a better defense than the Bucs defense this year, by the end of

65:14the season, I don't think it's crazy. At all.

65:17I don't think either one is crazy. I think I'm just bought in on the Bucs.

65:21The Bucs defense doesn't need to be good as much as the Saints does, I think.

65:25Like, I just— But this is like one specific thing.

65:28A little bit too, like, putting too much into, like, Demario Davis being gone, but I just—I don't know.

65:33We talked about it on the NFC South preview.

65:36You look at the Bucs' defensive numbers by the end of every season over the last three years, they have not been good.

65:42They've been bad. Actively bad. Despite the players being better this year, I will fully concede that.

65:46My wild card teams are the Seahawks, the Cowboys.

65:49I did—I couldn't get there with winning the division, but let's have some fun.

65:53Cowboys as a playoff team, and the Minnesota Vikings as my— Yeah, that's what I'm talking about.

65:57No Niners, no Packers for me. No—and, I mean, I've been down on the Bears from the beginning.

66:02I'm happy to be wrong about that, but I just—I don't want to sign up to need to score 31 every week to have a chance to win.

66:10I just—when you're—when we're picking these teams, we'll do it for the AFC in a second, there are certain teams where you

66:16have to be able to paint a picture for how the defense can be good enough to get them there, and I

66:22think for the Bears it's harder than it is for a lot of these other teams.

66:26I'll—and I'll just plainly say right now, like, picking the Vikings is just—like, I—it's fun.

66:30And I want some stakes behind the thing that I think is going to happen.

66:34The Packers or even the Bears could easily take that place.

66:37Like, that is obviously not weird. And what you said about the defenses, I don't think the Packers' defense will be good,

66:43but actually since doing the wins pool, I think I've gotten myself a little bit closer to, like— especially by the time

66:49Micah comes back, they can be, like, fine. Like, it can be a totally solid unit next to the seventh-best offense in the NFL.

66:56If the Bears are only the seventh-best offense in the NFL, it's a lot harder for me to get there with the defense being good enough.

67:03I also just think with the Packers, the reason if you go back and listen to the offense's draft, if you go

67:09listen to the wins pool, this is one where when you actually try to look at it in, like, a sober light, we're just bored of the Packers.

67:16Yes. We're just—we're just f***ing bored. They're just fatigue of this group.

67:20But if you look at what they've been offensively over the last few years— and again, I don't—who gives a s***, like,

67:26what your EPA ranking is by the end of the season if you're getting bounced in the wildcard round as a seventh seed every year?

67:32It doesn't matter. But in terms of consistency, the play caller and the quarterback have given them a real level of consistency

67:38on offense over the last few years that I think is just worth buying into even if it's no longer exciting because now it's not new anymore.

67:46Now we're, like, pointing them with a stick. The counterpoint, though, it's not even just that they're boring.

67:51I've said this—it might have been during the preview.

67:53I don't remember. But it's okay to want them to prove it to me for a change.

67:58I have given them so much benefit of the doubt.

68:00Like, Derek picked them to get to the Super Bowl.

68:03I was so high on the Packers. I've been high on the Packers since Jordan Love took over.

68:08It's not some crime to want them to do it before I just say, oh, yeah, there they go again.

68:14I also—it's just easier for me to put my stink on the Packers and pick them to make the playoffs.

68:19Just reverse jinx myself into a place of happiness.

68:21I fully expect, having left them out of the playoffs and been down on them for most of the year, that, like,

68:27by Thanksgiving, they're just going to look like a fire-breathing monster.

68:30I don't think you understand what it is like to watch the teams I care about do anything.

68:35I pick the—I have been so— like, just strictly and vocally out on the Dallas Cowboys for so long.

68:40It's wild yet. I've been in for, like, two weeks, and Tyler Smith is now out for six weeks because of a stupid thumb injury.

68:47Immediately after me picking them to be good, that happens.

68:50And so I'm trying to do the same thing to the Packers and avoid doing that to the Bears.

68:55That's what they do. Like, the minute, you know, you tell your dog, like, oh, my God, you haven't had any accidents in the house in three weeks.

69:03You're such a good boy. And the minute you say that, they pee on the rug.

69:07I can't do it. I can't do it to the Bears.

69:10That's why I'm willing to do it to the Packers.

69:13Let's get to the AFC. This is a disaster.

69:15It's—I don't—I'm not even worth doing. I want to just, like, list 12 teams and just say, like, anything could happen, and then we end the show.

69:23But that's not what we're going to do. Dave, your AFC playoff picks are what?

69:27Again, you can parse this out based on my picks for award winners, but I have the Buffalo Bills retaking the AFC

69:33East and having a very successful season. I have the Baltimore Ravens winning the AFC North after coming very close last year.

69:39I have the Houston Texans winning the AFC South.

69:41I have the Denver Broncos winning the AFC West.

69:43My wild cards are the Cincinnati Bengals, the New England Patriots, and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

69:48So no Chiefs. No Chiefs. Okay. And no Chargers.

69:50I—the Chargers— There is a chance they cannibalize themselves.

69:52The Chargers have been my biggest fly in the ointment for this entire time because there's 18 reasons worth being excited and

69:58having lofty expectations, and I just—I don't want to.

70:01I just don't. I'm sorry. I don't want to stake my personal happiness and reputation on that stuff coming through.

70:06This is hard. I did have all the same division winners.

70:09So Bills in the East, Texans in the South, Broncos in the West, which—that one I feel not as good as I want to about that, honestly.

70:17And then Ravens in the North. Wait, you picked the Broncos?

70:20Yeah, I did. Let's go. I don't— You're coming around.

70:22It's—it's—it's—it's to a point where, like, the roster is just, for the most part, so good that I'm like, even if they

70:28regress a little bit, they'll probably still be really good.

70:31I do have the Kansas City Chiefs as a fifth seed getting into the playoffs.

70:35The New England Patriots. You know you want to do it.

70:38Yeah. I'll just say the Jacksonville Jaguars. You know you want to do it.

70:42Just do it. I did not have them written down, and I'm like—I think in my heart of hearts— So who is it between?

70:48The Chargers. Okay. And maybe that's just because I picked them in the windspool over the Jaguars.

70:53Like, I don't know if it's me fighting a little bit the investment I have in the Jaguars.

70:58I don't know what it is, but they are a more complete team, I think, than the Chargers, probably.

71:03I had the Ravens in the North, the Texans in the South, the Bills in the East.

71:08In the West, flip a coin. Like, I picked the Chargers.

71:11Oh, okay. But I don't feel good about that.

71:13Yeah. How could you? I don't feel good about that.

71:16It's just—honestly, it's just something different. Like, their offense being really good and really exciting and them being the team that comes out of that division.

71:23I think that's just the version of the season I would enjoy the most.

71:27Just because it would feel a little bit new and we could have a different conversation about Justin Herbert.

71:32And I think that that version of the offense is something that I'm just excited about.

71:36And so maybe that was it. My wildcard teams, I had the Bengals.

71:40I just think the schedule is really friendly to the Bengals just to get in.

71:44The other two, I just want to be as clear as I possibly can about this.

71:48I had four teams for these two spots. I truly think that they're interchangeable into who I would pick and who I wouldn't.

71:54Like, I do not feel strong about any of these.

71:57But you did pick someone. I picked the Jags and the Chiefs, which means the Broncos and the Patriots don't make the playoffs in this scenario.

72:04You know what? Even as somebody— I'm as bought in on the Broncos and Patriots as it gets.

72:09But it's so easy to make the regression case.

72:12And year over year, we know this type of shit happens.

72:15So even if I don't agree, to deny the logic of it is just silly.

72:19I just—all over the place. I think I just feel the best about the—I don't even know what it is.

72:24Like, I just—I think the defense has a chance to be better in Kansas City.

72:28I'm betting on the quarterback. The Chiefs, even if they missed the playoffs last year, they were horrendously bad in one-score games.

72:34That's going to come back to earth a little bit.

72:37This team that went to the Super Bowl three times in four years, in three of the last four seasons.

72:42Like, I still think that even if we have questions about them, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt to an extent.

72:49I think the Broncos' defense just feels more fragile to me than it's felt in the last couple years.

72:54They did take a step back in the back half of last year.

72:57The defensive line isn't as deep as it's been.

73:00And it's not that John Franklin Myers is, like, the thing that's going to change this.

73:04But I just feel a little bit less belief in that group overall.

73:08They feel a little bit less sturdy to me.

73:10And I've talked about the Patriots all offseason. Like, I just, the defense worries me.

73:14The lack of talent on the defensive line at an edge specifically, just how thin they are defensively, that worries me.

73:20And so, I truly, between those four teams, I think, we talked about at the top, there are nine teams with minus

73:26odds in the AFC to make the playoffs. You could pick any combination of those nine teams and I would be completely fine with it.

73:33It's not even that I don't really believe in the Broncos or Patriots, it's just that you have to make some really

73:39hard choices with this group this year. You do, and I, this is an interesting one.

73:43Again, I think I'm, obviously I put the, I put both of them in.

73:47And I'm, I think I'm actually, like, weirdly more bullish on the Patriots still being good than the Broncos.

73:52Like, I think it's actually easier for me to see the case where the Broncos just don't, it just doesn't break as

73:58right for them as it did last year. I am curious, though, and I'm, like, trying to figure this out and look this up on the fly.

74:05When is the last time that both AFC championship teams did not make the playoffs the following year?

74:10So much of that has been the Chiefs. Right, I mean, so much of it is, right.

74:15In the AFC, that probably, yeah. Yeah, the Patriots and Chiefs probably make that impossible in the AFC.

74:20Well, and there's always been elite quarterbacks in the AFC, so it probably has been like, well, yeah, Tom Brady always gets back.

74:26And Peyton Manning always gets back. And, you know, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers always went back.

74:31And so I don't know what the last time it would be.

74:34But, like, I would guess it's been a very long time since two teams in the conference championship game did not make it back at all.

74:41Did the Niners make the playoffs in 2025? 2025?

74:43So, yes. Yes, sorry, sorry. In 2024? Wait, in 2024, the Commanders?

74:47No, in 2024, they fell apart. But then the Lions did, though.

74:50The Lions did make the playoffs. The Lions were really good that year.

74:53Yeah, NFC 24. It was the Eagles and the Commanders in the NFC championship game.

74:57Did the Eagles make the playoffs last year? Yeah.

75:00Oh, that's right. They got blasted by the Niners.

75:02So it's probably been a long time since that happened.

75:05It's probably been a long time since that happened.

75:07But last year was such a weird year that it's like, if you're going to bet on that happening the following year

75:13and, like, things coming back to normal, it would be that way.

75:17So I— Something weird is going to happen in the AFC playoffs this year.

75:21Of course. Like, something weird is going to happen.

75:23And so— It's so unsettling to sit here and make peace with your choices.

75:27Like, I—I said I believe in the Jacksonville Jaguars more than the Kansas City Chiefs just now.

75:31And I don't—I feel like I'm having second thoughts.

75:34This part, to me, was a little bit freeing just because it was like, eh, whatever.

75:38Like, they're all the same. It's not—somebody's going to be mad at me no matter what I choose.

75:43Is there a team that none of us mentioned?

75:46Absolutely the Pittsburgh Steelers. I mean, the Steelers and the Colts both really probably deserve a mention.

75:50I just feel less good about them than I do about the other teams.

75:54Of course. Well, we didn't pick them, but— Yeah, it's not— In the interest of trying to foresee all outcomes, like, those

76:00are two teams that I have to acknowledge could at least pull it off.

76:04They're at least in the category of, like, if they get there, like, things will have to break right.

76:09But I'm not going to be like, whoa, how did the Steelers make the playoffs?

76:13It'll be like, okay, you know, a couple things went right.

76:16Maybe the Bengals or Ravens just weren't as good as we thought.

76:19Something like that, I think, is on the table.

76:22Whereas, like, everyone after that, it's like the Titans would need a miracle from God to make the playoffs.

76:27I just think that looking at the odds and seeing that there were nine teams with minus odds was so comforting to me.

76:33Because I was like, these are the nine teams that I believe in, and I believe in them mostly the same.

76:39Outside of, like, maybe the Ravens and the Bills being the cleanest choices to win their divisions.

76:43Even the Texans, it's like, the Jags won it last year.

76:46They easily could win that division again. And then the AFC West, I, whatever.

76:50Either, any of those three teams could win it.

76:53And so that's just where I landed. All right.

76:55Dave, your final four is what? I have an AFC Championship game rematch.

76:59I mean, they didn't play in the AFC Championship game last year, but a rematch of Bills Broncos in the AFC title game.

77:05And in the NFC, I have the LA Rams playing Matthew Stafford's old friends, the Detroit Lions.

77:10I have the Rams and the Seahawks in the NFC.

77:12I have the Ravens and the Bills in the AFC.

77:15It's boring, but I think those are the four best teams.

77:18Yeah. I mean, I think the spiciest I have is I do think the Cowboys can get to the NFC Championship game.

77:24So I have Rams and Cowboys and then Ravens-Texans on the other side.

77:27I need the Cowboys to win 14 games in the regular season.

77:31I don't give a shit what happens after that.

77:33Yeah. That truly doesn't matter. They can lose immediately in the divisional to whoever.

77:37I, it doesn't, that, putting the Cowboys at the table is the one thing that we did and I picked them in the wins pool.

77:44If they win 14 games in the regular season, that's justification for putting them at the table.

77:48And it's enough for me to feel very good about the wins pool.

77:52We won't have the same discussion about them losing the playoffs again when we get there.

77:56It makes no material difference to my life. That is, it's a valid point.

78:00My hesitation with the Cowboys in the wins pool, playoff failure shouldn't really factor into that.

78:04You know, like that's not what we're playing for, but it looms too large in my mind.

78:09All right. Your Super Bowl winner is who, Derek?

78:11I just picked the Los Angeles Rams. I have them beating the Ravens, but I just, I think it's really hard to,

78:17like, there's obviously, again, them being the best team in the league only means like a 10% chance they win the Super

78:23Bowl or whatever, but it's the easiest case to make, I think.

78:27I also have the Rams over the Ravens. You know, this is the way I looked at it.

78:32It's the same thing as some of these awards.

78:34You don't need me to be the 27th member of the media to pick the Rams to win the Super Bowl.

78:40And obviously, I think that has a high likelihood of happening.

78:43I don't. I don't think it has a high likelihood of happening.

78:46High likelihood relative to everybody else. Yes. So I went with, I went with a Super Bowl matchup of Broncos Lions because why the, why the hell not?

78:54Something weird is going to happen. Why, why just go with chalk for no other reason?

78:58And so do you have winning? Do not say Bo Nix Super Bowl champion.

79:02I went with the Lions to win the Super Bowl.

79:04That would be amazing. I just, there are elements of the roster that worry me.

79:09Of course there are. But I think the offense can be phenomenal.

79:12That's, it's a, it's a weird spot to be where like, again, there's, there's like four teams you can pick to win

79:18the Super Bowl where you're not worried about elements of their roster.

79:21But then there we were at Levi's Stadium last year watching the Seahawks play the Patriots.

79:25Who the hell saw that coming? So do I feel good about this?

79:29Not really. But I'm just, I'm making a bet that some weird shit's going to go down.

79:34Otherwise, what are we doing here? Like if it's Rams bills, then why do we make content for nine months?

79:39Like you could have figured that out by yourself.

79:41So we'll see. But that's my off the wall pick.

79:44I'm glad we're done making content before the game starts.

79:47That's what I will say right now. I'm very excited for there to be actual NFL football to talk about tonight.

79:53Can I rewind a second? Give you guys an answer to the last time.

79:56Yes. Oh, yes. Championship teams. If I'm doing this correctly, it was the 15-16 NFC championship game between the Cardinals and Panthers.

80:02And then neither of them made the playoffs. There you go.

80:05So it's been 10 years. Carson Palmer was cooked.

80:08And then, yeah, year did not go as well for Camden.

80:1110 years. It would be, yeah, I'd be surprised if neither made the playoffs at all.

80:15But, like, one of them slipping out. I'm talking about the Broncos and the Pats.

80:19Like, if one of them slipping out, of course.

80:22But both, I would be pretty surprised. It could go a lot of different ways in the AFC.

80:27I'm just going to say that one more time before we get out of here.

80:31All right. That is all we've got for today.

80:33We will be back tonight live on the Athletic Football Show YouTube channel.

80:37Just a quick heads up. I mentioned this in the intro, but if you guys skipped the intro.

80:42Our schedule for the week or for the year, the same as it was last year, the only difference is going to

80:47be the Monday and Thursday recaps every week are going to be in your podcast feed.

80:52So those will be available as audio podcasts wherever you get this podcast.

80:55And so we'll get an extra one this week because we have a Wednesday night game, obviously, that we will be recapping.

81:01So that will be live on YouTube if you want to come hang out with us after the game tonight.

81:07But if not, it will be available in your feed tomorrow morning on Thursday.

81:11For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening.

81:13We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in.

81:16Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.

81:20If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating.

81:24We'll see you next time.

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