2026 AFC South preview
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 52 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 2, 2026
Published
Wed, September 2, 2026
18
Player insights
16
Players mentioned
Topics
Trevor LawrenceAlec PierceBrenton StrangeBrevin JordanC.J. StroudCade McDonaldCade StoverChris RodriguezDaniel JonesDavid MontgomeryFoster MoreauJayden HigginsJosh DownsTravis Hunter
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
PositiveUsage118:26
Alec Pierce faces significant pressure to step into a primary receiver role following Michael Pittman's departure, but he is currently dealing with an injury that threatens his availability for Week 1. He has never exceeded a 16% target share and missed critical training camp time needed to expand his route tree.
Insight pageBrenton Strange
PositiveRole37:27
The source identifies Brenton Strange as a breakout candidate because the addition of a big-bodied tight end allows him to move out of the inline role (336 snaps last year) and into his natural role as a vertical threat. He is considered one of the top 3-4 vertical tight ends in the NFL, ranking behind only George Kittle and Colston Loveland in EPA per target among tight ends with 50+ targets last year.
Insight pageBrevin Jordan
NegativeDepth Chart18:01
Brevin Jordan did not make the initial 53-man roster, though the team may attempt to sign him back as a pass-catching option.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
PositiveProjection25:30
Despite a poor finish to last season, the source remains confident in Stroud, citing his high-level play against the Chiefs and the potential for growth in his second year within a new offensive system under Nick Caley.
Insight pageCade McDonald
PositiveBreakout2:30
Cade McDonald is expected to provide more explosiveness than Tim Settle. While interior defensive line has a steep learning curve, the source believes McDonald has a higher ceiling than any interior player in the DeMeco Ryans era, though he may require a ramp-up period.
Insight pageCade Stover
PositiveRole18:33
Stover is being utilized in a fullback role, a significant shift from his previous usage as a strictly inline tight end due to roster constraints last year, contributing to a more versatile Texans blocking scheme.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
PositiveValue46:50
The source identifies Chris Rodriguez as the likely lead back for the Jaguars, citing the team's financial investment in him and his history with offensive coordinator Liam Coen. While the backfield is crowded, the source believes Rodriguez is the most likely to lead the team in snaps.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeInjury111:53
Daniel Jones's health is the primary concern for the Colts' offense. While he has participated in training camp, questions remain regarding his mobility and ability to perform at full throttle following his previous leg injury and Achilles recovery.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
NegativeUsage18:55
The source notes the Texans traded for Montgomery early in the offseason to address offensive line and run game issues, though there is some concern about whether he retains the same 'pop' after years of heavy usage.
Insight pageFoster Moreau
PositiveUsage18:25
Foster Moreau is highlighted for his blocking utility, specifically noted for his ability to kick out defensive ends in run-blocking scenarios.
Insight pageJayden Higgins
PositiveRole21:29
The loss of Higgins is described as 'humongous' for the Texans' offense; the source believes he was primed for a breakout season as a key complement to Nico Collins, and his absence leaves a void in the team's skill set.
Insight pageJosh Downs
NegativeRole121:37
With Michael Pittman gone, Josh Downs is being asked to expand his role from a specialized slot receiver to an outside receiver, which will require him to run more vertical routes and crossers.
Insight pageTravis Hunter
PositiveBreakout42:24
The source views Travis Hunter as a potential difference-making corner who adds a layer to the defense that was missing last year. His presence is expected to provide a jolt to the secondary, which the source considers a strength of the team.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveUsage34:11
From week 11 onward last season, Lawrence was elite, ranking 3rd in EPA per dropback and 2nd in success rate. He led the league in total touchdowns (24) during that stretch and showed significant improvement in deep-ball efficiency and time-to-throw.
Insight pagePositiveProjection38:44
Trevor Lawrence benefits from unprecedented continuity, as this is the first time in his career he is returning all three primary receivers and his primary tight end. This chemistry is expected to reduce interceptions caused by miscommunications with depth receivers, with the source noting his play style is similar to Dak Prescott's in terms of trusting receivers to be in the right spot.
Insight pageNegativeProjection97:20
The source maintains that Trevor Lawrence is a quarterback 11, noting that while last season was successful, he is likely what he is at this stage of his career. Success for the Jaguars in 2026 involves Lawrence and the offense proving they are a consistent, top-tier unit by returning to the playoffs.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveBreakout122:04
The source suggests Tyler Warren could emerge as a key contributor in his second year, potentially helping to maintain the efficacy of the Colts' offense as roles shift.
Insight pageWoody Marks
PositiveUsage18:20
The source highlights Marks' role in the preseason, noting his touchdown against the Raiders and the team's improved usage of varied personnel, including using tight ends like Cade Stover as a fullback to enhance blocking capacity.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Welcome to The Athletic Football Show brought to you by the US Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card.
0:05I am Robert Mays. Today, it is the AFC South preview.
0:08Let's waste no time. Some juicy conversations about all of these teams.
0:11Let's get to me, Derek and Dave breaking down the AFC South right now.
0:15It's the AFC South on The Athletic Football Show today.
0:17A lot to chew on with these teams. A few teams that we expect, I think, to make the playoffs.
0:23One team that desperately needs to make the playoffs.
0:25And then a fourth team that I'm not exactly sure what to do with.
0:29I mean, I feel like we talked a little bit before the show.
0:32I feel like we know what to do with them and we'll get there.
0:36I go through my notes in order of how we're going to talk about them.
0:40So I did the Titans last before I came into the studio and it left me unsettled.
0:45Yeah, I agree. It just not even not necessarily in a bad way.
0:48I'm disturbed now. Not necessarily in a bad way.
0:51I just agree with you. I have no idea what to do with the Titans.
0:55I do want to say this. They're a weird team and we'll get to them.
0:59Do you think part of it is the fatigue of this being the sixth division preview that we've done where when you
1:05get to a team that's a little bit lower down the road?
1:08A little bit. It's a little bit harder. Yeah, it's easy to get up with the teams when you have a lot of juice with them.
1:15But when there's one that's a little bit confounding, I think it's harder to get into it.
1:20Like the Giants in the NFC East, that was what, like our second division preview?
1:24It's like, OK, we're a little bit earlier in this.
1:27You got a little bit more energy. By the time you get to a team like that in the sixth one, it's
1:32like, OK, we're a little bit lagging. Not wrong.
1:35Not wrong whatsoever. Let's dig into the team projected to be at the top of this division.
1:40As always, we are going in order of divisional odds with these.
1:43Start with the Houston Texans. Our preview for the 2026 Houston Texans.
1:46Their offseason in 60 seconds. Signed Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith in free agency.
1:50Traded for David Montgomery. Signed Reed Blankenship and Logan Hall.
1:52Brought back Ed Ingram. Also signed Jadeveon Clowney during training camp, which I don't have in here because it happened late.
1:58Lost Tim Settle, Christian Kirk, Derek Barnett in free agency.
2:01He's still on the roster, but they also lost Jaden Higgins for the year tore in ACL.
2:05In the draft, Keelan Rutledge in the first round.
2:08Cade McDonald in the second round. Marlon Klein also in the second round, I believe.
2:12I think he might have been third. It doesn't really matter.
2:15No, he was second. Top 100. Those are the top three picks.
2:18With each of these teams, we're going to dig into what we are most excited about as it relates to that team this season.
2:25Derek, why don't you kick us off? What are you most excited about with these Houston Texans?
2:29I think the best defense in the NFL might be better.
2:32Like they are bringing back almost every starter from last year.
2:35And the only real change they made is bringing in Reed Blankenship, who is better than anybody who was playing that safety spot for them last year.
2:43And I do think is a really good fit to fix some of the potential issues they have.
2:47Like it's a very small thing, but sometimes you watch them.
2:50It's like when they're in weak rotation, you can run straight at the safety.
2:54And I don't think if you have Reed Blankenship on the field, you can do that as much.
2:59And so you add him, even some of the depth pieces they shuffled around, like bringing Clowney for Barnett, I think is
3:05like, honestly, at worst, like a neutral move. Like I think Clowney could even be better than that.
3:10He was much better as a pass rusher on a rate basis last year than Derek Barnett was.
3:15And the hope is the physicality is relatively the same in a run game.
3:18That's what Derek Barnett gives you. And Clowney, like that's what he did for a large part of his career.
3:24He's become a little bit more of a DPR guy because he's a little bit later into his career.
3:29But I think off the bench, he's going to give that to them.
3:33And then they bring in Caden McDonald for Tim Settle.
3:35And Tim Settle played fine for them last year.
3:38But I think McDonald, if things turn out well, especially towards the end of the year, you expect that to be a little bit more explosive for them.
3:45Can I be a pedantic jerk? Let's go for it.
3:48We're just, we're saying that the Texans were the best defense in the league last year?
3:52I am. Okay. If I totally get everyone wanting, there were two answers.
3:56One of them is obviously the one that won the Super Bowl.
3:59There's two answers and one won the Super Bowl.
4:01It depends on what stat you look after. They were number one in EPA.
4:05They won in EPA. Seattle was one in DVOA.
4:08Correct. There's not a wrong answer, but I don't know.
4:10I felt like our aggrieved Seattle fans, I had to speak up.
4:14They're not watching this. The only reason they are watching this is to find reasons to be aggrieved.
4:18It's to hear me say that. The goblin in my heart could not pick any other defense.
4:23I'm sorry. There is no wrong answer. But my note says the only defense that was in the same zip code as
4:29Seattle might be better than it was last year.
4:31And Seattle has more turnover than Texas. They have guys that were highly paid players they're trying to replace, and they certainly could.
4:38But I do think the Texans personnel has been upgraded compared to Seattle's, which I think is at best a neutral move.
4:44So I'm with you on that. I think the re-blankenship part of it.
4:47And then the Cade McDonald part, even if Tim Settle was a fine player for them last year, Cade McDonald's ceiling as
4:53a player is as high, or I think higher, honestly, than any interior player they have ever had during the D'Amico Ryan's era.
4:59Who else would it even be? That's probably true, especially as like a three-down player.
5:03Yeah. Or like a can-do-everything player. Like Sheldon Rankins can get into the backfield.
5:07But if you get four hands on him, you can move him a little bit.
5:11And the idea is that McDonald can get into the backfield, he can hold up against a couple teams.
5:16And he has a little bit of juice as a pass rusher.
5:20This isn't what I'm looking for in the first month of the season, but I just want to know how quickly that materializes.
5:26Interior defensive line is notorious for being a steep learning curve, even for the most exciting prospects.
5:30I mean, I was just listening back to our AFC North preview, and we were talking about Mason Graham and how you're still hoping for more.
5:37That was a guy drafted five overall. And this is one of, if not the most talented defenses in the NFL.
5:43Still have Rankins. Tommy Togiai was a really surprisingly good player for Houston last year.
5:47I hope Caden McDonald kicks ass right from the get-go.
5:50But on such a good defense, I want to know what that looks like.
5:54It's the exact same conversation we're having about Mason Graham.
5:56It's the same defensive style. It's the same defensive system.
5:59And I think it's the same sort of ramp-up period.
6:02And talking to people there, that's the thought process, is that it might not happen right away, but you see the flashes
6:08enough that when it does start to click into place, which it has for other players in this defense.
6:13I've used this example many times, but Matt Burke was in Philly when they signed Javon Hargrave in free agency.
6:18And he came from a very different defensive system in Pittsburgh, and it took him a while to learn how to play that way.
6:25Go look at his numbers in the back half of that first season compared to the first half of his first season in Philly.
6:31Almost all of his sacks, all of his quarterback hits came in the back half of the year.
6:36And so they are aware of the fact that it is going to include and require a ramp-up period for Caden McDonald.
6:42The hope is that when it does click into place, you see the impact be exponential after that.
6:47And I think that's a good thing to bring up, because he was playing relatively deep into week three of the preseason
6:53because they're trying to get him those reps. Just live reps.
6:56None of their other major players were really playing at that stage.
6:59And again, I don't think that's because he's looked bad, but it's like you're saying, it's a different style of defense.
7:05If you're going to play that attack-react sort of defense, you need the reps to learn how to be able to do that stuff.
7:11Happy birthday to Will Anderson, by the way. This is like 23?
7:15This is being released on his 25th birthday. He was third in the league in pressures and led the league in pass rush win rate.
7:21He just turned 25. He's one of those guys, it reminds me a little bit of guys like Julio Jones, where you
7:27are famous from essentially the time you step onto a college campus because of what sort of prospect and player you were as a freshman.
7:34You're hyped up to an unimaginable level. You are one of those can't miss guys that we hear about for years and years and years.
7:41And then you come into the league and he's better.
7:43Yep. He's better than most people thought he would be.
7:46Because I feel like some people believe that he had sort of a limited ceiling because of what he would eventually be as a pass rusher.
7:53He is a better player than I think a good chunk of the draft community thought he was going to be in the NFL.
8:00And that comes after like one of the most hyped up college careers we have seen in the last decade.
8:05I remember taking issue with some of that, the limited ceiling stuff and thinking like Will Anderson's a better player than some people think he is.
8:12But I did not see this. I did not see him being on the shortlist of best defenders in football in his age 25 season.
8:19I mean, even if I was bullish on him, it's just it's an insane ceiling.
8:23You're what you're excited about is also the defense as we make that.
8:26The Texans might be the most straightforward team we're going to preview.
8:30Like I completely all of the beats, which is exactly how they play defense.
8:33So it's very fitting. But yes, I mean, everything Derek said, upgrading the personnel on what was already one of the two best defenses in the league.
8:41I just can't wait to watch him play. I also am excited about watching the defense, if you can imagine that.
8:46It is the most unhinged defense in professional football.
8:49We have a lot of guys that play like they've lost their minds, and I really enjoy that about them.
8:54A couple numbers associated with the Houston Texans defense from last season.
8:58On early downs. So the time when it theoretically would be most difficult to defend the pass because they can also run.
9:03Right. I mean, these are the downs where you have two pads you can take.
9:08It is harder to be in true pass defense looks on those snaps.
9:11On early downs last season, the Texans allowed negative 0.25 EPA per drop back and a 37% success rate.
9:16That is essentially an average Cam Ward drop back from last year.
9:19That's insane. So on early downs, every team in the NFL was the Titans against the Texans last year.
9:25That's just on. And the thing is, again, I think what is so beautiful about it, they play two coverages, man.
9:30They play quarters and cover three. I will say this.
9:33It is more varied on third down than you might think.
9:36Yes. On layer in the down. On third down, they play a little bit more cover six.
9:41It's more of a Rolodex thing. And I will say one of the things as we're trying to figure out how, and
9:46this is actually one of the things I wanted to talk about within that limited framework, they do such a great job.
9:52And I think we don't give the coaching staff a lot of credit with this team because it is so quote unquote simple.
9:59It reminds me a little bit of some of the conversations that we've had about the Bengals offense over the last few years.
10:05Yeah. When I think some of the tinkering they've done has actually gone underappreciated because they want to exist in a somewhat
10:11smaller box than some of these showier teams. But I really appreciate what the Texans staff does in that limited space.
10:16They do tinker with stuff every single year that makes it a little bit harder for you to get a beat on them from 23 to 24.
10:24They started playing a ton more man coverage because they realized the corners could do that.
10:28I think the man coverage rates went up from like 22, 23 to like plus 30 on third down.
10:33And they were a fantastic man coverage team. There is more Rolodex and coverages this year.
10:38Even something small. I won't say the player because I feel like it's betraying a conversation.
10:42But there was a player that they had in a certain type of coverage that they were like, if we play it
10:48the way that it's taught, he's going to be a little bit more vulnerable than we want.
10:52But we want to keep him on the field in these situations.
10:56And they just they changed how he plays one specific technique in order to make sure they could live in that coverage
11:02because it works for the other 10 players. And it's just something they kind of stumbled into last year.
11:07Stuff like that goes underappreciated. And I think this year we're going to see some more of that.
11:12The two things I'd be curious about. They put almost no dime defense last year.
11:16Almost none. Do we see a little bit more of that this year?
11:19Because you can move Jalen Smith outside and potentially move Kamari Laster to the nickel while you put Jalen Petrie at dime linebacker.
11:25Just a little bit more personnel diversity than we've ever seen from them before.
11:29And then do we see them play a few more five down fronts than we've really ever seen them do in the past?
11:35Because this team is as static as it gets when it comes to front multiplicity.
11:40Because they can be. And it's another area where they know teams are only going to try to run like a few
11:45small subsects of runs against them because the fronts that they play.
11:49So they've gotten really, really good at defending them.
11:51But I think those are the two areas where I'm curious.
11:54Do we see some small tweaks in order to keep making sure that they stay a half step ahead of people?
12:00Do you think the five-man front stuff is some more of like true odd front where it's three interior defensive linemen on the field?
12:06No, I think it's a linebacker walking down. I think it's toe-toe walking down.
12:10That makes more sense to me based on their personnel.
12:13Walking down and then walking back. Just kind of giving a little bit of indecision about what offenses are going to see.
12:19That would be my assumption. That's something that can sound good in August and then you just scrap it.
12:24And then you're like, yeah, what's the point of that?
12:27Those are the two things. Like if they want to experiment, do we see those being the areas of experimentation?
12:32Hmm. Let's get to what we're watching over the first month of the season.
12:36Just a curiosity, something you feel like is sort of an unanswered question that you want a little bit more information on
12:42over the first few weeks of the year. Dave, why don't you kick us off?
12:46What are you watching the first month of the season with these Houston Texans?
12:50We all understand what's new and exciting about the offensive line.
12:53It has to go into practice now. And again, it's incredibly straightforward because it was one of the biggest problems with last year's team.
12:59And it's something they spent a lot of resources on this year.
13:02Or Keelan Rutledge officially going to play left guard to start.
13:05Did they say that today? That's the word coming from Nick Casario.
13:08Did you see what else Nick Casario said? It depends.
13:11Maybe. He said, we think Keelan Rutledge is our best offensive line.
13:14Yes, I did see that. Does that make you feel better or worse?
13:18I was asking Robert about this before the show.
13:20Better? Okay. Because you used that, you spent a big pick on him.
13:24And that was the hope is that he was going to be that guy that kind of changed the culture of your offensive line.
13:30The depth chart we have on the YouTube video that people are watching has Wyatt Teller at left guard.
13:36Because as of this morning, they had not announced what the starting offensive line was going to be when we made that graphic.
13:42But it does seem like it might be trending.
13:44Like you said, Dave, where Rutledge is going to play left guard.
13:47And then that means Evan Brown is going to play center.
13:50In that iteration, why I think it's important that Keelan Rutledge is their best player.
13:54They didn't do anything. Keelan Rutledge is the difference.
13:57Or the upgrade from Jake Andrews to Evan Brown is the only other change that you've made if Braden Smith and Wyatt
14:03Teller aren't going to be a part of your starting five.
14:06So in that universe, Keelan Rutledge better be your best offensive lineman.
14:09It is funny and a perfect example of how much time we have to dissect all this shit during a nine month offseason.
14:15Because yeah, right now, Braden Smith is starting the season on IR and Wyatt Teller is probably your swing interior guy for the time being.
14:22I don't think Braden Smith was going to start even if he was healthy.
14:26You said that like halfway through camp that Trent Brown seemed like he had a stranglehold on that job.
14:31So probably not what we anticipated throughout a lot of the offseason just because of the money that was spent on the two veterans.
14:37But Rutledge is there. Evan Brown is a name to get familiar with.
14:41He was in Arizona for the last two years, not playing center, by the way.
14:45He played center for the 2023 Seahawks up and down.
14:48Like I think can be serviceable. He's been a swing interior player for the most part over the last few years.
14:53I mean, this is going to be famous last words because this is their biggest problem.
14:58But I'm talking myself into thinking that this offensive line can be good.
15:01Good running the football like they I think like but Ed Ingram, Keelan Rutledge being what you hope he is.
15:07I think. This is this is what you want.
15:09I don't know how good it is in pass protection, but I think this can be like a physical offensive line that can move people.
15:16That's their biggest issue. Yeah. So if that is the case, if that if the offense can be better in its ability to assert itself on the ground.
15:23I think that goes a long way. We've talked about this when CJ Straub was on the field last year, his team
15:29was 12th in the paper drop back. Mm hmm.
15:32Like that's not the problem. The problem is they have not been able to run the ball.
15:36And I think the question becomes your two aversary Rutledge.
15:39Is that enough in terms of like a physicality boost for you to feel better?
15:43And I think the other part of this we talk we're talking a lot about the talent upgrade and I do the talent upgrade matters.
15:50Continuity and stability is the thing that was most important.
15:53They were at a point last year where there were so many moving parts and it all felt so unsettled that every
15:59time they would run something where they had to pull somebody, it was a disaster.
16:03And so it just became a situation where it was like, we're let's run duo again.
16:07Let's run it again. Let's run it again because you can't screw that up.
16:11And so I think the goal is the talent upgrade makes you more dynamic up front.
16:15But now the hope is if everything feels a little bit more settled down and you know who the five are, they
16:21get the next couple of weeks to work together.
16:23Now you can actually run the variety in the menu of run plays that you actually would like to.
16:29And I think in all of this, and I actually do, I joked about it, but I do like, I really liked
16:35Keelan Rutledge coming out of the draft. And if he is the player that they think he is, and he really is
16:40their best offensive lineman, I do think that that might be enough to be a difference maker in the run game because
16:46he can move people, but he also is really good climbing to the second level.
16:50Like he's a really good athlete. Always goes to the right spot.
16:54I think too, we can include in this, the tight end additions.
16:57That's huge. Like last year, every year there's one or two teams that it's like, oh, look at how much six offensive linemen they're running.
17:04Does that mean something? And it's like, it means they don't have another tight end that they like.
17:09If we can cut down on the Blake Fisher snaps this year, it would be pretty fun.
17:13So just to put that in perspective, the Texans used 198 snaps of Jumbo last year, which was the second most in the NFL.
17:20They used a hundred multi-tight end snaps all season.
17:2212 and 13 personnel snaps combined. They played a hundred of them last year.
17:2610%. That was not the idea. That's not who they want to be.
17:29I don't know how, like, it's crazy that, which we know what it looked like.
17:33It wasn't good, but it's just crazy that they lived that way at all.
17:37Like when I saw it was as low as 10% across 12 and 13, you still see that in the NFL.
17:43Now, especially now. Yeah. As more teams are trying to do this.
17:46I mean, now they're at a spot where I actually didn't look at the 53 and see how many tight ends they kept.
17:52They kept four. At least there might be one or two on IR or something like that.
17:57So they kept four. Brevin Jordan is the one that didn't make the initial 53.
18:01I think they're going to try to sign him back.
18:04But Brevin Jordan, that was almost entirely as a pass catching option.
18:07I mean, what he can do as a receiver.
18:09The four that they kept outside of Dalton Schultz, the other three, I think a big selling point is what they're going
18:15to be able to give you in run blocking.
18:18And they're all of different roles. Like if you watch the touchdown that Woody Marks scored in the preseason game against the Raiders, you see it.
18:25And again, it's the Raiders backups. You don't have to read too much into it.
18:29But you watch Foster Moreau on that play kicks out the defensive end by himself.
18:33And then they use Kate Stover as a fullback.
18:35Like both things that before Kate and even when Kate Stover played last year, he had to be an inline tight end
18:41because they didn't have any other ones. And so the variety and what those guys can potentially give you just in a
18:47blocking capacity is just so much different than it was a year ago.
18:51So much different. I'm nervous about how hopeful I am that this could actually look pretty entertaining.
18:55And worth mentioning David Montgomery as well. Like that's one of the first things they did to correct this was trade for him very early in the offseason.
19:03And I think that there's stuff you can hang on to with the offensive construction with just a normal level of offensive line play.
19:09Because that was the other part last year. We talked about this when we were doing the Stroud segment in the Lingering Question show.
19:16They were trying to do things last year just to get by offensively.
19:19The line play was so bad, especially early year.
19:22They're trying all the seven man pro stuff and the pressure rate even on plays like that was heinous.
19:27And so just being in a place where you can play normal football, where you're getting the ball out quickly, just the things they want to do.
19:34This team last year, there are a lot of things you can attach yourself to.
19:38They were eighth in design rollouts. 0.33 EPA per drop back.
19:4157% success rate on those plays. Like getting to a place where you can just use normal types of play action.
19:47Normal passing game. Not having to sit there and be worried about, can we block this up?
19:52Can we block this up? With every single thing you try to do.
19:55I think just getting to a normal place with this offensive line in both the run game and when you're throwing the ball is huge.
20:02And the other, the last that I want to throw out, we're talking about two to three tight ends in the field.
20:08They were 30th in total dropbacks and an EPA per drop back with two to three tight ends on the field last year.
20:14They were just terrible when they did it and they barely did it.
20:18And so that should be a very different version of what this offense looks like compared to what it looked like a year ago.
20:24What is keeping you up at night, Derek, about the 2026 Houston Texans?
20:28I mean, kind of the other side of the coin of what we're talking about.
20:32Like the offense still does have a floor that scares me a little bit.
20:35And I think if you really ask me like true serum, do I believe the floor is higher and that I have some amount of optimism?
20:42Yes. But until I see it, that floor and what it looked like at some points last year is still there.
20:48And I don't think... You mean in the playoffs?
20:51In the playoffs. That's what I was going to say.
20:53I don't think over the course of the regular season, it necessarily kills this team from being that much worse.
20:59No. But this is a team that is like, you're playing for football when it matters.
21:03Like you are supposed to be a January football team.
21:06And I do still worry that this offense has a floor that once we get there, maybe the offensive line is beat
21:12up again or just doesn't take the step that we want them to.
21:15Maybe the ideas that we have for this tight end room, it just doesn't actually solidify into anything that they want in the run game.
21:22Maybe David Montgomery, like after years of being a guy who's taken a bunch of carries, just doesn't have the same pop that he's had in years prior.
21:29And now you don't have Jaden Higgins in the passing game.
21:32And he was, I think, primed for a pretty big year next to Nico Collins.
21:37Losing Jaden Higgins is huge. Humongous. It's huge. Even after trading for Kayshawn Booty, you just don't have that type of skill set within the offense now.
21:44I really do think that he was going to have an awesome season.
21:47And he is just such a cool compliment to what you have in Nico Collins.
21:51And Kayshawn Booty is just a very different sort of player than Jaden Higgins is.
21:55And so I just, I'm still just a little bit worried that if they run into one or two meat grinder teams
22:01in the playoffs, that they still just don't have it.
22:04If the offense isn't, I'm not even going to say substantially better, but if the offense isn't consistently at least a little
22:10bit better, you know exactly what the ceiling is for this team.
22:13And it's like divisional round of the playoffs. Probably.
22:16I just think like, even, even with this defense being what it is, you're gonna, you're gonna run into a team that
22:22will, will get the better review or will force CJ Stroud into another situation like he was in January, or will be
22:28able to score 23 points on this defense, which would be enough in this scenario.
22:32I just, you're, you're not running that gauntlet without the offense being better.
22:35Even if this is like a 10 win team with a middling offense, I don't want to walk into the playoffs thinking
22:41for the second year in a row, the defense has to be the one that gets them over the top.
22:47Like the defense will be what carries them, but I don't want it to be the only thing that is getting extremely hard to do that.
22:54We even in a world where the last two teams that won the Superbowl have been driven more by the defense than the offense.
23:00Philly had both of the last two teams that won the Superbowl finished number one in defensive DVO way.
23:05Both. You got to get that game though. But, but you, you have to have multiple games.
23:10And even if you look at what those teams were on offense, either for the entire season or for stretches, we talked about this with the Eagles.
23:17They were able to tap into a version of that offense that very, very few teams can reach because of how dominant
23:23the offensive line was and because of what Saquon was.
23:26And they quietly have two of the best, like the best receiving tandem in the NFL outside of Cincinnati during that season.
23:32You look at Seattle last year, the Seahawks were third in passing success rate over the course of the season and third in explosive pass rate.
23:39Those are two very good pillars of what you want your offense to be.
23:43Like even if a defense first team has won the Superbowl, you still need to clear a certain bar and a pretty
23:48high bar offensively in order to get yourself all the way there.
23:52And even if the Texans offense is considerably improved, it remains to be seen whether they can clear that sort of bar.
23:58I got to have some degree of confidence that the offense can score 30 plus points on their day.
24:03You're probably going to need to do it at least once.
24:06They have a calling card like because the Eagles and the Seahawks, even if they had some down games, whatever they had
24:12calling cards like the, the Seahawks could generate explosives either with Ken Walker in the playoffs or obviously JSN at any time.
24:18The Eagles, we know how many talented players they have.
24:20Nico Collins to CJ Stroud down the field, I think is great.
24:24And I think it's pretty explosive. I don't think it's to the same level that those Superbowl teams have been.
24:29Not yet anyway. I don't think we really have to beat around the bush with this.
24:33The quarterback needs to be really, really good for them to win the Superbowl.
24:37Yeah. They need to be a good passing offense, like a bumping up against the top 10 sort of passing offense, I
24:43think for them to win the Superbowl because most teams need to be that.
24:47And I think the question is going to come down to outside of the offensive line improving and just the run blocking, improving overall.
24:53Do we feel like the quarterback has that sort of gear to him as we get deeper into the season?
24:59That's, that's going to be it. It's pretty simple.
25:01Honestly, I think this is the easiest team to diagnose in the NFL this year.
25:05Mine is right there with you guys. Like I just, what's keeping me up and I just, does the offense get there?
25:11The Jaden Higgins thing is huge. The offensive line is still a theory.
25:15I think if you're trying to build the optimistic case for the quarterback beyond this being an outmanned group personnel wise on
25:21offense last year, it's a new offensive coordinator and a new offensive system.
25:24And I think what's interesting about the pairing with Nick Caley and CJ Stroud, Caley been a tight ends coach for a
25:30good chunk of his career, but he was the passing game coordinator in LA.
25:34I think this is true, but I'm almost certain it is.
25:37The two quarterbacks that Nick, Nick Haley had been on offensive staffs with before he got to Houston or Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford.
25:43It's a lot of mental acuity and just age and experience.
25:46And I think you, when you go from that and quarterbacks that had know exactly who they are as players, know exactly
25:52what they want, have been in the league for a decade plus.
25:56It's just different than working with a guy who, how old is CJ Stroud?
25:59I mean like 25. Yeah. Yeah. CJ Stroud is.
26:02Last year was his third year in the NFL.
26:04Last year was CJ Stroud's age 24 season. And I just think that's, that's a process.
26:09And I think that you have to learn how to get players to respond to you.
26:13And I think that a year of this group working together of understanding like what that looks like, him finding his voice
26:19in terms of what, how to find command and ownership of the offense, like all of those things, I think have a
26:25chance to be much better this year than they were last year.
26:28And I think that's to me, how you start building the optimistic case for how things are going to look drastically different
26:34in year two than they looked in the playoffs last season.
26:37I'm not overly worried about CJ. If the, if the ecosystem around him is right, which that is, it's at least a step of faith.
26:44I don't know. Like how optimistic are you about the offensive line?
26:47Maybe it's a leap, but you, there is an element of believing that this is going to be better.
26:52But if it is, I'm really not worried about CJ Stroud.
26:55And we've just, the highs that we have seen from him at points, even if the last thing that we've seen from
27:01him was the worst that we've ever seen him play.
27:04We're really good. Again, I think he played really well against the chiefs the last time he played them in the playoffs,
27:10even this past regular season, the game he played against them.
27:13The numbers don't look great, but it was like a haymakers versus haymakers fight.
27:16And he was willing to throw them. And I thought that that was incredible.
27:20And so, and the other thing that I've said this before, like we need to remember that Sam Darnold played like the
27:26two worst games that you could possibly play before he went to the Seahawks and then he goes to them and wins the Superbowl.
27:33And so I just don't think that the one stretch like that necessarily defines a quarterback, especially in CJ's case, where again, there was his age 24 season.
27:40Going back to the theme of the segment, what's keeping you up at night though, is that the offensive line could be
27:46marginally better or not better at all. And we're just back in the same spot where this could just easily be the 20th best offense in the league.
27:54And all the defensive stuff is for not. That's not a hard thing to imagine.
27:58It's a very easy thing to imagine. And that's what would be keeping me up at night if I were a Texans fan.
28:04What does success look like? We're gonna do this for every team for the 2026 Houston Texans, Dave.
28:09The offense and CJ play well enough to a hold up their end of the bargain.
28:13B big picture, just because we haven't even mentioned it.
28:16If CJ has a good year, you quell the questions and uncertainty about his contract situation.
28:20I think it would go a long way toward reaffirming that the Texans want him to be their guy for the longterm.
28:26And if they do that, if CJ Stroud on the offense are good, the rest of this will take care of itself.
28:32This will be a 10 plus, maybe a 12 plus win team.
28:35If the offense is good, then the Texans could get to the AFC championship game or beyond.
28:40Then I think that's a successful season. I said AFC championship game.
28:43That's exactly what I said. I think like the defense we obviously know is going to be there and kind of like Dave is alluding to.
28:50But for how long? The offense. What that's exactly.
28:53That's why it has to be now. Like, I don't think the offense looking one step better and then you still get knocked out in the divisional.
29:00I think like for as good as this defense is and for as good as like some of them are young players,
29:06but there are still a lot of other expensive guys that they're paying and those young players will become expensive.
29:11Like the Neil Hawker got drafted in 2015. Yes.
29:14And hopefully he can keep doing this for a long time, but you can't take that for granted.
29:19And they really rely on those guys. And I do think this thing is thin.
29:23Like if you do remove one of those players, even if Clowney gives you decent depth, this defense feels very different without to Neil Hunter or Will Anderson.
29:30A hundred percent. The entire thing when you've built it through this type of defense, because even if it's been a little
29:36bit more stable over the last couple of years, there is more inherent volatility to defense.
29:41It's just more fragile. It's the windows are just a little bit thinner.
29:44And so you have to strike while the iron is hot.
29:47You have to make the most of these opportunities.
29:49And so saying they have to get to the AFC championship game for it to be successful probably seems like a high bar.
29:56But when you have this type of team, that's just the case.
29:59Like you have to do it now. And again, I'm willing to say that for a lot of AFC teams because the
30:05AFC is pretty like it's kind of wide open.
30:07Like if you think you have a unit this good, you should be getting there.
30:11We don't have to relitigate the past, but if CJ had just been meh, they might've done it last year.
30:17Got into the Super Bowl. That's right. Got into the Super Bowl.
30:20Yes, yes. I don't have to worry about it beyond that.
30:23But yeah, I mean, the margins are the margins are there.
30:26You could do it. And with a defense like this, I think you have to do it.
30:31All right. Before we get to the Jacksonville Jaguars, let's take our first quick break.
30:35Are you the kind of sports fan that wants to dig into the story behind the stats?
30:39Join the Athletic Live on YouTube to cover all the sports stories you can't stop talking about.
30:44On game days, we'll watch the biggest matchups alongside the Athletic's most tapped in reporters.
30:48And you can become part of the show in the interactive chat.
30:51The Athletic Live is presented by Google Gemini. Subscribe now on YouTube.
30:54Speaking of the wide open AFC, let's get to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
30:58Our preview for the 2026 Jaguars. They're offseason in 60 seconds.
31:01Traded Mason Smith for Ruka Roro. Signed Chris Rodriguez.
31:03Brought back Monteric Brown. Just traded for Daniel Falalele.
31:05Lost Devin Lloyd, Travis Achan, and Greg Newsom in free agency in the draft.
31:09Nate Borkutcher in the second round. Emmanuel Pregnon and Albert Regis in the third round.
31:13Dave, what are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 Jacksonville Jaguars?
31:17In my adult life, I can't remember the Jaguars having competency and continuity at the two most important jobs in the building the way these Jaguars do.
31:25Head coach. You didn't believe in the Doug Marone-Blake Bortles pairing?
31:28I sure did. You didn't believe in this one?
31:30Head coach and quarterback. No, I didn't. And I was just curious.
31:33The Jags, and the stats are skewed because they got so hot over the second half of the season.
31:38But for the totality of the year, they were 14th in offensive DVOA.
31:42That's only their second top half of the league finish in offensive DVOA since David Garrard was the quarterback.
31:47It was in 2017 they were up there. No, they were 10th in 2022.
31:51They weren't even a top half. Really? The first good Trevor year, right?
31:54Yeah. Yeah. The first good Trevor year. This is uncharted territory for Jacksonville.
31:58And to be primed to do it year over year.
32:01Like if they're good on offense again this year, putting together back-to-back years of competency in Jacksonville?
32:05Are you kidding me? I will say this is a little bit of revisionist history.
32:09I have more faith in this, but coming out of that first Doug Peterson Trevor year, I do think we all kind
32:15of believe that it was just going to be like the sky is the limit for this offense.
32:20I think that that is, I think both things are true.
32:23I think one, we finally thought that after how bad the Urban Meyer thing was, it was like, okay, he has like ground to stand on now.
32:30That Trevor Lawrence has like somebody here. They were so good in the second half of the season.
32:35They were so good in the second half of that season.
32:38I do still think that there's a level to Liam Cohen in terms of what the ceiling looks like that we probably didn't believe with Doug Peterson.
32:45Maybe not. In the moment, maybe I'm just speaking for myself.
32:48I was very excited about what that could potentially look like in the moment.
32:52I have much more faith in this than I do in that.
32:55No, that's very valid. Especially the way they got into the playoffs and the fact that they even gave the Chiefs a game in those playoffs.
33:03That Ravens game is burned into my brain. The Ravens game that Trevor Lawrence played in that game is burned into my brain.
33:09That Ravens game was sustaining me through like the two years after that when I was, it was so easy to give up hope.
33:15I'm going to talk about this later in the segment, but even the year after that, remember the Jags were like on
33:21top of the AFC and gunning for playoff positioning halfway through the next year and everything that's happened since.
33:26That's soon came after. Maybe I am tempting fate by saying this feels different, but it does to me.
33:31I think when you look at what Liam Cohen did in 2024 with Baker and then when you look at what he did last year, that is different.
33:39Even with Doug Peterson in Philly, it just felt a little bit different than what Liam Cohen has been able to do.
33:45It was very specific in a way that I have more faith in Liam Cohen's ability to sustain this thing.
33:50It was an of its time offense. It was like everybody, like they were ahead on the RPOs, ahead on the quarterback run game.
33:57It was a very like this works in 2017 offense.
34:00You could take what Liam Cohen does now for the most part and paste it over like any other point in NFL
34:06history and it would probably be pretty good. Can I just read some stats that I think are flying under the radar
34:11as we please do talk about the Jags from week 11 onward last season, which is when things really got rolling for
34:17Jacksonville, Trevor Lawrence finished third in the league in EPA per drop back second and success rate seventh and passing DVOA.
34:23He scored 24 total touchdowns during this stretch, which led the league.
34:26And even if you want to be mean and take away the five touchdowns that he scored against the jets and everything
34:32that was going on there, he'd still be tied for second in that stretch.
34:36Only trailing Matthew Stafford 29 passing touchdowns was a career high 38 total touchdowns was third most in the league only behind
34:42Stafford and Josh and his interception rate and his turnover worthy play rate were both his best since that 2022 season.
34:48He was playing out of his mind and I don't know, maybe, maybe I'm just in a bubble, but I don't really
34:54feel like that's getting talked about the way, like as, as he was one of the hottest and best quarterbacks in the
35:00NFL down the stretch of last season. He was, he was incredible, man.
35:03And I think a lot of it is to me, that is a lot of the, how the production came out in
35:09the end and they were obviously an incredible offense.
35:11I think what is so inspiring to me is the way that they played.
35:15Yes. Trevor Lawrence, my favorite part of this from week 10 on Trevor Lawrence was fourth in an average depth of target at 9.4 yards.
35:22He had the second highest rate of his completions that went for at least 20 yards.
35:26The only person higher was Drake may on attempts without play action.
35:30So just their pure drop back stuff. 21.3% of his completions went for at least 20 yards highest in the NFL.
35:35That's my favorite part of this offense is the gun.
35:38Yes. Intermediate. We are slinging this shit around the yard approach to what they were doing.
35:42And he's doing it all on time. He had a 2.73 time to throw, despite how far they are chucking it, which
35:48was like dead on average in the NFL. He is getting to the top of his drop and he is chucking deep outs, post routes, go balls, digs.
35:56He's not wasting time and sitting there behind this pristine offensive line or anything.
36:00He is getting the ball out and ripping it.
36:02The most frustrating part to me about watching Trevor Lawrence over the last few years, talk about Trevor Lawrence games that stick with you.
36:09That game they played against the Niners two years ago was disgusting.
36:12It was disgusting. Like how quickly he was getting the ball out.
36:15You just felt this condensed offense that defenses could drive downhill on.
36:18And I'm sitting here looking at this guy who's 6'6 and built like a God that we talked about his physical skill
36:24set for five years before he came into the NFL.
36:27And I'm watching this offense just massacre the idea of what he was supposed to be.
36:31And I'm like, this is awful. And watching that version of the offense we got in the second half of last year
36:37is such a far cry from those Jags offenses when they were just completely cutting his legs out from under him.
36:43And this play style was unacceptable for what he is as a player.
36:46And that's what was so fun to watch. He led the league in week 10 on and the percentages of his throws
36:52that went to the sticks last year. He led the NFL and that's what they should be doing.
36:57And what's so exciting about this, sometimes when you look at back half of the year stats, you kind of cherry pick
37:03the endpoints, it can be a little bit all over the place.
37:06There's a very actionable reason why it got better in the second half of the season.
37:11The personnel changes. And when you watch the personnel change and it all starts to fit together, you understand what the offense is supposed to look like.
37:18Jacoby Myers, Parker Washington in their roles. Brian Thomas Jr.
37:21shifted into the role he should actually play. And then the last part about this, the other guy I wanted to mention.
37:27So when Myers and Washington were on the field together last year, the Jags averaged 0.18 EPA per play.
37:32That was the same. That's the same numbers when we were talking about T Higgins and Joe Burrow.
37:37Okay. When you put Brenton Strange on the field with those other two guys, it's 0.33 EPA per drop back.
37:42Strange coming back to the lineup is a sneaky part of 100%.
37:45I love what he is in the offense. And we talked about, all right, the Parker Washington, Jacoby Myers, Brian Thomas parts of this.
37:52Brenton Strange was the only guy who couldn't play the role he's supposed to last year because of what their tight end room looked like.
37:59He had 336 inline snaps last year. That's not the player that Brenton Strange should be.
38:03The Borkutcher part of this to me is not just about adding a big body.
38:07Why to the offense? It allows you to use Brenton Strange the way he should actually be used, which in my opinion,
38:13I think Brenton Strange is like one of the three or four best vertical tight end receivers in the NFL.
38:18If you look at the numbers last year, among tight ends with at least 50 targets, there were two guys that had
38:24a better EPA per target than Brenton Strange last year.
38:27George Kittle and Colston Loveland. Probably the two best vertical tight ends in the league.
38:31And so I am just, you talk about what are we excited about?
38:35I hope you can feel it. Like I love the pass catching personnel combined with the way that they were playing last year.
38:41And I am really excited to see if they can build on it.
38:44Going back to the theme of continuity too, I think it's fun that it's all the same for the first time in Trevor's career.
38:51This is the first time he's bringing back all three of his primary receivers and his primary tight end year over year.
38:57Like there's been so much turnover with all the shit the Jags have gone through.
39:01And that's good for any quarterback, but I feel like especially him, the way he plays, he's got a little bit of the Dak Prescott.
39:08I'm throwing the ball. You better catch it. It helps when those guys know.
39:11So yeah, when they catch it and they know where they're going to be and they have chemistry with you.
39:17Cause I feel like half of the interceptions that Trevor Lawrence has thrown over his career is to like some wide receiver
39:23for who he's like, I will catch the dig route and he's not going to catch the dig route.
39:28What I love about this is that Trevor playing the way that he did last year, just gives Derek covering fire to
39:34be back in a, it's never his fault place.
39:36Whichever Lawrence. It's a really beautiful synchronicity. The fourth receiver did it again.
39:40This is what it looks like. What opportunity meets preparation is what Derek is allowed to do with Trevor Lawrence right now.
39:46Let's talk about what you guys are watching the first month of the season with the Jacksonville Jags.
39:51Derek, what is on your mind as we get into the first month of the season with this team?
39:56I'm just kind of curious, like, does this defense have another gear to it?
39:59Because I'm, I think to say it was a mirage is, is a little bit strong, but it's, it's a little bit
40:05like the charger situation where you look at the talent on the roster and how good they actually were.
40:11And it's like, they kind of overachieved. I think it's a fantastic coaching job.
40:14I think they did an incredible job. I loved watching the defense.
40:18And I just think sometimes with those cases, and I even said this about mentor, sometimes you want to see that again.
40:24And like, can they iterate a little bit and can they continue to do that?
40:28Cause they didn't really add a whole lot outside of Travis Hunter, hopefully coming back and playing quarterback.
40:32Well, my issue with that, that is, I think they've iterated as much as they could iterate all the weird shit they have to do.
40:39They're all the knobs are turned to 10 in terms of like the things that the leverage they're pulling with this defense.
40:45And I think that's why Cam and Eli deserves a lot of credit.
40:49But I think the question becomes, can you do that again?
40:52Like, if you think about all the run game stunts, they have to rely on all of the weird, the, just the,
40:58the sheer amount of like blitzing situationally because they were just doing the blend of everything was so cool.
41:03And I think they maximize the talent with that.
41:05Can you maximize it even more than you did?
41:08I'm not sure about that. And I, again, I'm not positive.
41:11And like, I think some things went really well for them.
41:14Jordan Lewis played exceptionally well for them last year.
41:16We came into that year being like, can a 30 year old nickel really do that?
41:20Is he worth the money? I think that's one of those things that like, maybe again, he got banged up a little bit last year.
41:27Like maybe this is the year it falls off a little bit.
41:30Like Eric Murray is 32 years old at safety.
41:33Like there, I know I've had a lot of words about Devin Lloyd, not, you know, maybe his season not being as good as second team all pro.
41:40He's much better than Ventrell Miller. You're going to say you're going to be a drop with him.
41:45You are much, especially with, and Robert, you've brought this up a lot.
41:49His length in coverage. Yeah. Ventrell Miller doesn't do that.
41:51He might give you like equal stuff in the run game, but that just means I think on first and 10 and
41:57stuff, when he's going to be on the field as a run defender, you can probably pick on them a little bit
42:03more over the middle of the field. And so I'm just a little bit worried about some of that stuff.
42:09And that's why I'm curious, like, what do they do to try to iterate and try to make this thing feel a
42:15little bit different with like, again, mostly the same players.
42:17Mine was how the defense looks and feels different.
42:20And I think there are a lot of things you can point to Travis Hunter.
42:24Number one, if Travis Hunter is a difference making corner, I'm so open to that.
42:28Like he's already a layer that you're adding to the defense that you didn't have last year.
42:33I think the corners played well enough. I mean, Montaric Brown is a nice story, but having Travis Hunter and just give you a little jolts.
42:40That's something that I feel is important for this.
42:42Do they see the jump they're looking for from Trayvon Walker?
42:45That's another important part of this to me. And even with that, do we find more pass rush somewhere?
42:50Because that's the area of this defense that when we talk about mirages and the things that can be sustainable, that's the
42:56one that would leave me the most concerned. They were bottom eight last year and pressure rate when bringing four per next gen.
43:02Some of the teams below them, Patriots or excuse me, Panthers, Niners, Ravens.
43:06What did the Panthers, Niners and Ravens do this off season?
43:09They said, let me go get one of them pass rush.
43:12And then the Niners got Nick Bosa back. Or then traded for Osa.
43:15And traded for Osa. Yeah. Like a lot of these teams.
43:18And then the one just ahead of them that did nothing because my life is terrible as the bears, but most of
43:24the teams that were below them, they have motivated day.
43:27dang, that's all you need. Most of those teams did something because I think they're probably a little bit itchy about their ability to get home with four.
43:34And if Trayvon Walker doesn't take that step, even if he does, what happens when you have to live in a blitz
43:40world where they were at the EPA per drop back when they were blitzing last year?
43:45Very good. Success rate middling. And so on a down to down basis, if you have to live that way, is that
43:51something you want to have to do over the course of an entire season?
43:54And again, Devin Lloyd was a really good blitzer.
43:57And you can convince me that Miller can be fine in that sense too.
44:01Again, I think he's like a good downhill, just like go hit people sort of player.
44:05But Devin Lloyd was really, really good at it.
44:07Cause I think an underrated part of linebackers blitzing, when you go and blow up the running back a little bit, you
44:13are probably about as close to the quarterback as anybody having that little bit of length to get a hand up in their face goes a long way.
44:21And like Devin Lloyd, I think was really, really good for that.
44:24So you remove that, you look at that depth that they have at edge.
44:28I'm just like, I don't know, man, unless you really are like one of the best pressure teams in the NFL, which
44:34I'm open to it, you might lose a little bit of something here.
44:37This is the stories you tell yourself. In the off season, for sure.
44:41This is off season copium. But if you were hoping for more contributions from guys that were already on your team, cause
44:47you didn't have the resources to do a lot in the off season.
44:50It's nice to lean on the number one and number two overall pick in the last few drafts.
44:55Yes. Yes. Can we see jumps from guys that were drafted in the top three?
44:59Maybe. Yeah. Yeah. If anybody's going to make one of those jumps, uh, the linebacker off ball linebacker spot, the other one
45:05next to Foyalukhan that Devin Lloyd was playing. And that's another thing I'm watching.
45:09It's, it's not about who can take that spot.
45:11To me, it's about how you cobble it together.
45:14Situationally to ventral Miller is more of a thumper.
45:16Branson combs is a guy that I feel like you can use more in coverage if they want to play it situationally.
45:22And then the other part of this, you mentioned if one of the DBs gets hurt, I actually think defensive back depth
45:28is one of the strengths of this team. When you just look at it right now, cause Rand saw is back and
45:34you still have Jerry and Jones who had to play a lot last year.
45:38That's not slated to be a starter. So if you lose Jordan Lewis, Jerry and Jones can capably play the nickel.
45:44If you lose Eric Murray, I think Cale Branson can play safety.
45:47So with some of that defensive back depth, do we see them play more six DB looks this year, especially in passing
45:53situations, the personnel and the question at the other off ball linebacker spot, I think would lead you to believe they would
45:59want to do some more of that. And they did it in the first half of the year before they got banged up.
46:05I think that's actually a really good point that if, especially on, you know, second and really longs or on, on some
46:11third downs and stuff, just bring Jerry and Jones on the field instead of whoever linebacker two would be because you're losing
46:17the value of Lloyd not being out there. I like that a lot actually.
46:21And it's safety depth is decent, right? And if Ransaw can play for you, I do think that there's just a little
46:27bit more flexibility on the backend for them this year than they were last year, because the secondary was quietly pretty banged up and didn't include Travis Hunter.
46:34Dave, what are you watching the first month of the season with the Jags as me and Derek sit here and geek out about the defense?
46:41Let me speak for all fantasy football players. I say Jags, how are we sorting out this running backs room?
46:47Me and Dave did a draft last night and I took Chris Rodriguez late.
46:50You didn't, you didn't take facial tootin. I didn't.
46:53Chris did. Yeah. Cause everybody in the world is so high on basal tootin because he's so fast.
46:58And I hope that your faith is rewarded, but we have no idea.
47:01The Jags running back room in its entirety, Chris Rodriguez, basal tootin, LaQuint Allen, 330 career touches.
47:06That's not even just carries. That's everything. These guys have tootin has like a hundred of those.
47:10These guys, Chris Rodriguez has 198 career carries and 112 of those came last year.
47:15Basal tootin had 83 carries last year, LaQuint Allen, 23.
47:17Like there are running backs all by themselves who flirted with this workload last year.
47:21And that's over these guys entire careers. Chris Rodriguez is very interesting just because Liam, like he's the one guy they identified,
47:27the one guy that they spent any money on.
47:30And Liam Cohen has a history with him. But what does that mean?
47:33It means that Chris Rodriguez is going to be the lead back for the Jaguars.
47:37Says the guy who just drafted in every league that I've been.
47:40I, I need it to happen. I kind of like earnestly believe that.
47:44I don't know about lead back. I'd be so happy.
47:47I don't know about lead back, but like in fantasy football is not necessarily a perfect representation of real life, but like he's going for yourself.
47:54He's going like seven rounds before Chris Rodriguez. And it's like, it's more likely than not.
47:58It's like a 50, 50 situation. It's music to my ears, baby.
48:01Not to keep the fantasy parallel going, but I just imagine.
48:04I, I I'm following the money and guessing Chris Rodriguez is going to be on the field the most.
48:09And Basial Tootin is just going to have half a dozen jaw dropping explosives this year, because that's his role.
48:15I really don't know how it's going to shake out.
48:18I mean, I think they believe Basial Tootin can take on a pretty huge workload and because his play strength is an underrated part of his game.
48:25Even as a small player, I think he's a strong back and he's somebody that can handle more than a speed back
48:31typically would be able to from both a workload perspective and just the things they're asking him to do.
48:36But I think we're at a point where you can flip a coin.
48:39I don't, I'm not sure we have a lot of clarity on what exactly it's going to look like.
48:45I think Tootin is just the more exciting option here by a hell of a lot.
48:49It's very strange to have a whole running back room with this little NFL experience.
48:53But the, the one nice thing is just, this wasn't an amazing running game.
48:57Like Travis HN is a hell of a player and he got a lot of money and we're all very happy for him.
49:03The Jags were bad. They were bottom 10 and rushing success rate.
49:06They were below average and rushing DVO way. They were neither good at yards before contact.
49:11It's like they couldn't block anything and they were not good at yards after contact either.
49:15So they didn't have anybody who could just create shit.
49:18Basil Tootin was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 51% of his carries last year, which I believe would
49:23have been the worst mark in the league over the course of an entire year.
49:28That is untenable. They were stuffed at the line on 22% of their attempts.
49:31This is a good transition. Ninth in the league.
49:34It's bottom 10 for, for perspective. This is a good thing to bring up.
49:38Derek, what is keeping you up at night about the 2026 Jacksonville Jaguars?
49:41The offensive line and run game needs like four dominoes to fall in succession for this thing to work out.
49:46One, they are, they're flipping their tackles. Anton Harrison is going to play left tackle.
49:51Colvin Lennon is going to play right tackle. Colvin Lennon.
49:53Who knows what he looks like after the season ending injury from last year.
49:57So I practiced. Yeah. He has not practiced. Like, I think that that's an important thing to bring up.
50:02Uh, Emmanuel Pregnon is going to be playing left guard for them.
50:05He's a third round rookie. And I think he looked good in the one preseason game he played, but it's one preseason
50:11game and he's a third round rookie. Like you just don't know exactly how much better that's going to be for them.
50:17And then you add that on top of like, how good is Basial Tootin?
50:21Really? How good is Chris Rodriguez? Really? And so I think you just need all of these things to fall on top of.
50:27We haven't even really talked about Nate Borkutcher a little bit.
50:30Like how can he really be like a difference making, you know, block tight end, um, out of the gate.
50:36And so kind of need these like four things to fall in.
50:39I think three of them would probably be enough, but I think one or two of them in this run game is
50:45just not significantly better than it was last year.
50:47And I think it has to be because it was bottom of the barrel last year.
50:52I think they need to get to a place where it's at least passable.
50:55If the offense is going to be able to sustain the way that we want it.
51:00Because it's hard to run that hot as a passing offense when teams know your run game.
51:04Absolutely. And I think when you have to be the Bengals.
51:07Yes. And when you do it over a seven, eight week stretch, okay, that's fine to do it over a course of
51:13a season when teams are now coming into the season, maybe thinking you might be that bad.
51:18It's, it would be very hard for them to live that way again.
51:21I meant before last year's Bengals, by the way, the Bengals last year ran the ball well, but for the majority of
51:27Joe Burrow's time, you'd have to be those sorts of Bengals teams where we can line up in the guns slinging around.
51:33There's nothing you can do about it. I'm excited about the pass catching pieces for the Jags.
51:38Do we think they're that? I don't think so.
51:40I don't know. I mean, it's maybe, maybe Parker Washington's Jamar Chase.
51:44I don't know. That's going to have to be true.
51:46What a find. Um, mine, I'm in the exact same boat with you.
51:50It's just what's keeping me up at night, the quality up front and what it means for the run game.
51:5531st in rushing success rate in the back half of the season, all the offensive line shuffling.
52:00The tight end stuff is worth mentioning. Not only just adding a broker skill set, but now being able to use strange
52:06in the way that he should be used as a blocker to where you're just having him sift.
52:11You're doing all the things that you should be doing is like an undersized receiving tight end.
52:15He's capable. He's not a zero. He could get by as a Y, but that's not what you know, have him there to do.
52:22And so I do think the, this, the two back or the two tight end multi tight end running stuff from them last year was really bad.
52:29And so them being in a place where that can be a little bit better.
52:33I think is worth paying attention to. I'll say, even if when you look at two, his advanced numbers, he had a
52:3947% success rate on those 83 carries last year, despite averaging 3.7 yards a carry.
52:43I think, I think he was doing a decent amount with what was being blocked.
52:47And so if it just can get a little bit better than it was last year, I do have faith in him.
52:53And then we've talked a lot about the success rate stuff from Rodriguez last year within that offense.
52:58He was a good get on base sort of back.
53:01And so there is a path here, but like you said, I think it just requires a lot of dominoes to fall into place.
53:07And when you look at the offensive line, I was going to say is, would it be the worst offense?
53:13Let's say they win the Superbowl. Would it be the worst offensive line to win a Superbowl and how long?
53:18I mean, unless Emmanuel pregnant is a pro bowl out of the gate, it's definitely worse than Seattle.
53:23Yeah, exactly. And like, crazy probably won't be. And it's fair to think he won't be raised label was a first round pick.
53:29Emmanuel pregnant on is a third round pick. And so he's, it's probably a worse offensive line than what Seattle won with last year.
53:36And even Seattle winning it last year was a little bit of like, usually the offensive line of a Superbowl winning team is better than that.
53:43So I think, I think it's pretty good to bring up.
53:46That ties into mine, which is just overarching. When you don't make meaningful personnel ads, you're banking on all of your bets
53:51hitting in order to be substantially better. And what keeps me up at night is just how much better are the Jags
53:57actually from last year's team, which needed a heater to like be as good as they were.
54:02And then even still you run into teams in the playoffs and they, it was such a great game against the bills,
54:08but they, they went out in the wildcard round.
54:10Like they weren't close and how much better is this team from that?
54:14I mean, we don't have to go back over everything y'all just said, but these are all, these are all off season hopes.
54:20You, you hope Travis Hunter is that guy. You hope that you're right.
54:24That Nate, Nate Boerker can make your offense a little more three-dimensional.
54:27You hope that you're right about all of these young running backs.
54:30And I just, I don't trust that anybody is going to nail everything to that degree.
54:34And so sometimes they do, right? I mean, to keep bringing up Seattle.
54:38I mean, a lot of the off season bets that they made hit like gangbusters.
54:42It's possible. It just makes me nervous when you're counting on being that correct about that many things to, to take another step.
54:48And I do think that they were good on both sides of the ball in a way that doesn't take away from
54:54how many games they won, but there are still elements of who they were last year that there was a little bit
55:00of luck and they had 31 takeaways last year.
55:03That's a crazy number. The only team that had more is a team that is absolutely not going to do that again,
55:09that resides in the city we're sitting in right now.
55:11And then the other part of it, Barnwell had a really good stat with this.
55:15And I think it's something that's worth thinking about looking at the defense and why it probably has to be better than
55:21it was a year ago for them to do this again.
55:2441% of the Jags defensive dropbacks last year came against quarterbacks who were not their team's primary starter.
55:29That's a lot of good stat. Good pull bill.
55:31And so you're, they're playing a lot of backups.
55:34And I think that does some lifting when you look at just the overall defensive numbers that were very good last year.
55:40So I completely understand where you're coming from just with the, the bets that they're having to make.
55:45And the fact that the margins feel a little bit slim with those.
55:48What does success look like Derek for the 2026 Jacksonville Jaguars?
55:51I mean, it feels crazy to say it about this many AFC teams, but like go to the AFC championship.
55:57You really, you really have to go to the AFC championship game.
56:00I said last year they played in the AFC championship game.
56:03You know what? You did say that. That was your take.
56:06I did say that even though it was a wild card.
56:09I appreciate considering that you're the Jags enthusiast. I appreciate you standing 10 toes down.
56:13Yeah. And like not backing off of your enthusiasm.
56:15I don't think that's necessary because I think even some amount of regression with the turnovers and maybe the defense isn't, doesn't
56:21have quite the same teeth and all this stuff.
56:24I still think that they're like a, like a 10 ish win quality team.
56:27And then if some of the things hit, I do think that they're a little bit better than that.
56:33And so again, I think the part of the reason I'm saying AFC championship is because it does feel so wide open right now.
56:39I don't think that they're quite the quality of team that I would typically ascribe that to, but I do think that
56:45they have that gear to them and the way that they were running so hot at the end of last year.
56:51I'm like, they've showed me that they have that gear to them and just ran into a really good build team.
56:56I really appreciate the gap between your expectations and mine because I just want the Jags to establish themselves as a team
57:02that we can trust to be in the mix year over year.
57:06That's what I want. And this goes back to the top of, to what I said at the top of the segment.
57:12I want, I want the Jags to make the playoffs without any of the patented Jags bullshit.
57:16Let's go back and let's revisit the Trevor Lawrence era.
57:19This is year six, two of his five previous years.
57:22They've been just awful DOA four wins or less.
57:24The other three years in 2022, they started three and seven before going on a six and one run to steal the
57:30AFC South at the end of the year. I had such a good time during that run.
57:35I really enjoyed it in 2023. They were eight and three at Thanksgiving and daydreaming about getting home field advantage in the playoffs.
57:41They went one and five down the stretch and crashed out of the postseason entirely.
57:45Last year, they were four and three at the by the Rams ragdolled them in London and they looked dead in the water.
57:51And then they went 10 and one. Can we just have a normal like 10 and seven Jags season where we don't
57:57have to have something historic happen down the stretch for their season to be decided.
58:01If they have a quiet 10 and seven season, don't even care if they win the division, just make the playoffs without being goofy.
58:08It would mean a lot to me for a team that you really haven't been able to count on year over year.
58:13I kind of think that's just inherent to who they are.
58:16And I don't even mean. Then how can you pick them to reach the AFC title game?
58:21I mean, I know you didn't pick them. I still I do think the floor.
58:25Yeah. While I think the floor overall here is higher, I do just think that they're like a team that there's going to be some weird vacillation.
58:32Is that just what happens in northern Florida? Because I think.
58:35Well, this is getting out in front of the Trevor apology as early as he possibly can.
58:40But here's the thing about Trevor. I think at one point.
58:43Was it earlier this season where I was arguing like, I swear to God, he's quarterback 11.
58:48And that's a totally fine thing for him to be.
58:50I don't think he's any better than that, even despite how well last season went.
58:54I'm still kind of like he is what he is.
58:57I think if they make the playoffs again, exactly what I wrote is make the playoffs again, hammer home that this is
59:03an offense quarterback and play caller that is here to stay among the best in the league.
59:08If you can do both of those things, I think that's a success.
59:11They had no resources this offseason. They're not pushing their chips in.
59:14That being said, I was looking up their $13 million over the cap next year.
59:18They paid a lot of guys. Colvin Lannan, Jacoby Myers, Parker Washington needs a new contract.
59:23There is less financial wiggle room than you want, but they'll have resources again.
59:26They'll have draft resources again. I would just like to not be surprised by the Jags, preferably for better, but like either
59:32way, like they're either surprisingly good or surprisingly bad.
59:35Just, just do what I think you can do for once and, and get to the playoffs.
59:39That would be fine. I do feel better about the offense than I've ever felt, including going into the 23 season after
59:45enjoying that late season run from them in 22.
59:48All right, before we get to the Indianapolis Colts, let's take one more quick break.
59:52Let's get to the Indianapolis Colts. Our preview for the 2026 Indianapolis Colts.
59:55They're off season in 60 seconds. Kept Daniel Jones, kept Alec Pierce, signed Michael Clemens, Arden Key, Keenan Allen, one very late.
60:01And Akeem Davis-Gaither lost Michael Pittman in a trade, Quiddy Pay, Braden Smith, Nick Cross, and free agency in the draft.
60:07CJ Allen in the second round, AJ Holsey in the third round, Jalen Farmer, and linebacker Bryce Boettcher.
60:12Why that's important is that all of those guys may have to play at some point this year.
60:17What are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 Colts, Dave?
60:21I think Sauce Gardner and Charverius Ward could be really special if they're both healthy and playing up to their potential.
60:26And it's a fun thing about trades like the Sauce trade.
60:29I didn't like it when it happened. I didn't really think the Colts needed to do it.
60:34I thought it was a mistake. But you're right about that.
60:37Now that we're here, though, he's on the roster.
60:39Sauce Gardner is a really, really good football player.
60:42And last year was the worst of his career.
60:44He only played 11 games. He was obviously banged up.
60:47He still, in his quote-unquote worst year, allowed a 49% catch rate on his targets, which was top 10 in the league.
60:53He was targeted on just shy of his, just shy of 14% of his dropbacks, which is in line with name your favorite corner.
60:59He's right there statistically in terms of how often offenses are even willing to go at him.
61:04And he had eight pass breakups, which is a top 25 number despite missing six games last season.
61:09Like, he was still a productive, good player. And he's also, I think he just had his birthday too.
61:14He's 25 years old. I think Sauce Gardner is still really, really good.
61:17Whether that means the Colts should have traded two first-round picks for him is immaterial to this year's team.
61:22Charverius Ward, my God, he's been through the ringer the last couple years.
61:26I mean, multiple injuries. He was banged up last year with concussion problems.
61:29Very tragically lost his daughter during his last season in San Francisco.
61:33So you could understand why his play might have dipped since he was an all pro in 2023.
61:38But in 2023, he led the league in pass breakups.
61:40He had five splash plays playing cornerback for the 49ers.
61:43And last year, despite missing seven games with concussions, he was right behind Sauce in the degree to which he was contesting the football.
61:50He had seven pass breakups. This is a hell of a cornerback pairing.
61:53And Lou Anarumo loves to play man defense and do goofy shit and blitz when he's got a great pair of cornerbacks.
61:59If they're healthy and playing, I think they could have a transformative effect on the Colts defense.
62:04And we'll get to everything with Daniel Jones and the Colts offense.
62:07But I have a, I don't have a high degree of trust, but I have some degree of trust that this offense can still be pretty good.
62:14If the defense is much better than we're giving it credit for, the Colts could surprise you.
62:19And I think it starts with these two cornerbacks.
62:21In the second half of last year, the Colts played man on 60% of their third down snaps, which was the highest rate in the league.
62:28It was four percentage points higher than the Cleveland Browns, which when you're beating Jim Schwartz, when you're laughing the Browns and
62:34man coverage rates on third down, you are more than comfortable playing that way.
62:38And they had a 40% blitz rate on third down on third downs where they played man and brought extra pressure.
62:44They were top 10 in EPA per drop back in the back half of last year.
62:48That's the vision. Yeah. That, that is, that is the vision for the defense.
62:52That's how they will have to play in order to get by.
62:55I want to let you have the pristine view on that because I'm going to have the pessimistic view on some of that a little bit later.
63:02I'm going to save it because I don't want to step on how much you're enjoying yourself.
63:07I at least share some of his excitement and maybe this is closer to what I'm watching, but like the youth movement
63:13in the back, you're excited about nothing overall. You're just watching everything.
63:16Yeah. I'm just, with the Colts, that is how I feel like I'm just monitoring this situation, at least for the first couple of months of the season.
63:24But I mean, they just have a lot of young guys in the back seven.
63:28Like they brought in, they drafted CJ Allen in the second round, who I think they expect to start at linebacker.
63:33Bryce Boettcher, who you mentioned to, I don't know how much he will play, but I do like he was playing a lot in the preseason.
63:40I think there's a chance that he's probably their third linebacker off the bench.
63:44AJ Halsey at safety, who they drafted in the third round was getting a lot of run.
63:49And so I think he could be interesting. And then Justin Wally, who I know that you mentioned was, they were pretty
63:55high on him coming into last season about him coming into last year.
63:58He's the starting nickel. They don't seem very young guys.
64:01That Kenny Moore just left. Like they seem totally excited about Wally.
64:04And I think Wally gives you some man coverage stuff as, as the nickel.
64:08We might as well do this now. Here's what's keeping me up at night.
64:12Just skipping all the way. Well, cause it's, we're talking about it.
64:15Yeah. Don't the Colts have like the easiest, what's keeping you up at night?
64:19No, because to me, it's not even, I think the offense still to me, like has a relative floor, even if we
64:25don't think it's going to get back to the heights of last year.
64:28I think that's fair. What you just are laying out there.
64:31We got a rookie second round pick at linebacker.
64:34We got a rookie third round pick at safety.
64:36We got a guy we've never seen before is now the starting nickel.
64:40Bryce Betcher is going to play. Yeah. Because he is right now, probably over camp.
64:44CJ Allen was hurt for a good chunk of camp.
64:46Bryce Betcher was our best linebacker. The only reason that he's not starting right now is that the idea of putting a
64:52second and fourth round pick next to each other at linebacker is terrifying.
64:56And so we saw exactly. And so a team Davis Gator is probably going to play just to give some veteran stability.
65:02And he's a guy who's played for Lou Anna Rumo before all of that, all of the youth that you're worried about.
65:08Okay. Traverius word has not played football for the most part in the last two years.
65:12Yes. So this idea that, oh man, which are various word and sauce gardener.
65:16They're playing all this man coverage and they're just going to blitz the shit out of people.
65:20And that's how they're going to get by. What if Traverius word gets hurt again?
65:24Have you looked at the depth that the Colts have at corner?
65:28Well, then I won't be excited anymore, Robert. But I'm saying that's, what's keeping me up at night is that the margins
65:34on this defense, all the things that have to go right for you to feel decent about it.
65:39The edge rushing group. I was going to say, Art and Key is starting.
65:42They need, they need some of those like mid, like day three rookies to give them something as pass rushers this season for this defense to be viable.
65:50What I said about them being top 10, any paper drop back on third down when they blitzed last year, they were
65:56bottom four on early down drop backs where they only brought for any paper drop back.
66:00The only teams that were worse with the jets, Cardinals and commanders.
66:03Oh, buddy. I mean, looking through the two deep to forest Buckner, even at his age, although it comes with injury issues
66:09of his own after last year, just a guy that's getting up there, been in the league for a while after him though.
66:16It's what? No, the, all of the basis for Colts optimism on the defensive side of the ball, at least is that
66:22those two corners are going to play 15 plus games at a high level.
66:25Yes. And I think I'm excited about it partially because you have no choice, but to hope that that happens.
66:31And not only like, not only would it have a tangible effect on your defense, but it would go a long way
66:37toward making you not feel sick about doing that trade.
66:39I don't even, I don't know if that just, I don't know if there's something sauce could do to justify it, but
66:45playing like an all pro for 16 games this year would, would help.
66:49That's what we were talking about. The defense figured this was the time to pull it out, but that, that is what
66:55is keeping me up at night is that the margins on that side of the ball feel incredibly thin.
67:00Let's talk about what we're watching the first month of the season with the Indianapolis Colts.
67:04Oh, by the way, my, what I'm excited about, I didn't hit that.
67:08This is the best offense, the league over the first half of last year, we saw them do it.
67:13It was a real thing that happened. And even if they started to fall off, he, the quarterback before he tore his Achilles broke his leg.
67:20That is a real thing that happened. He played multiple games on a broken leg.
67:24It's kind of crazy. He did something worse after that, that we just forget that he broke his, he broke his leg.
67:30And so even if we have concerns about them being able to hit the heights that they hit in the first half,
67:36when they were one of the best success rate teams of the last decade, and we have plenty of numbers you can throw out.
67:42Like the best one to me through eight weeks, Daniel Jones leads the league and totally pay when pressured was top 10
67:48and EPA per drop back and success rate in weeks.
67:51Nine through 13. He was 30th after leaning the league in total EPA or any paper drop back on those plays where he was pressured.
67:58At least some of that you have to tell yourself is because the man was playing on a broken leg, but it
68:04was always going to fall back to earth a little bit.
68:07I think my excitement is even if we can expect a small step back from the offense, he's been healthy all off
68:13season, but he played every rep of training camp.
68:15They were doing everything with him, boots, rollouts. This is not a Kirk cousins, Achilles situation.
68:19And so I do think that there is still a version of this offense that even if they're not the best one
68:25in the league, I like Shane Steichen. I like some of the past catching talent.
68:29The offensive line ecosystem has proven to be very good.
68:32Jonathan Taylor is a really, really good player. There is a conceivable universe where I really enjoy watching the Indianapolis Colts offense
68:38again, and I am excited to believe in that at least a little bit.
68:42See, I just feel like it's the flip side of the defensive thing where the ideal version of this would look.
68:48But we saw it. We saw it with the offense.
68:50I'm not willing. I and I hear everything. You have been very complimentary of Daniel Jones's recovery.
68:55Everybody that's gone through Indianapolis is like nothing. It looks like nothing ever happened.
68:59It's still training camp and they're still not allowed to touch you.
69:02And that is something that I've at least got my eye out for.
69:05To me, it's movement skills though. Like the idea that you're moving.
69:09The only thing he can't really do. And he has said this is when he's opening the throttle fully as a runner.
69:15He's probably not a hundred percent. How many times is that necessary?
69:18How many times does that actually run him that much last year?
69:21To me, it's more about how nimble are you in the pocket?
69:24Like what can you do in with quarterback based movements?
69:27And I think the fact that he's not going to be stationary and he's going to be functionally athletic.
69:32That to me gives me much more optimism about what the offense can potentially look like.
69:36I'm just imagining, you know who they play week one.
69:39Baltimore. I want to know Baltimore. Oh man. I'm imagining Trey Hendrickson tearing ass around the edge and a play where it
69:45didn't seem like he was going to have to be at full throttle turns into a scramble for all hell to the sideline.
69:51And I'm not like, I'm not saying he's going to get hurt, but like how ready is he for the actual beats of football?
69:58Because in training camp, Trey Hendrickson tags him up and he throws it anyway.
70:02And everybody goes, those are sick. Those are sick.
70:04And the play goes on. That doesn't happen in the regular season.
70:07And I at least want to see it before I just assume that it's going to be okay.
70:12That's where I'm at. Like I'm watching like, okay, they're letting him play full practice and all that stuff.
70:17And they're letting him do everything. They're letting him boot.
70:20They're letting him do all of it. Being comfortable with, he can do it and him being healthy and good enough that
70:26they are the best offense in the league. And I think are two very, very different things.
70:31And so I'm just, I think I'm just very curious to see how he looks.
70:35And then to a, not, I wouldn't say lesser extent, but to a different extent, can Alex Pierce play?
70:40Oh, that's what we're going to get there. We're going to get there.
70:43So Dave, what are you watching the first month of this?
70:46This is what you're watching too. Was Daniel Jones's health.
70:49So let's just extend that. Yours was Daniel Jones's health.
70:52Yours is what? Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce. Okay.
70:54And then mine is how the past catching role shake out.
70:57So we're just moving. Okay. Okay. So let's talk about Alec Pierce and your concerns potentially about Alec Pierce.
71:02I mean, there was a report today. I don't know if you saw this.
71:06You probably put this in beforehand that they were like, we hope he can play week one.
71:11We're nine days away. And we're at, we hope he can play when he's our $28 million supposed to be our best receiver.
71:17I just think that like, I had already expressed concerns that I think they're hoping that the receiver core is as good
71:23as it was last year with, uh, Keenan Allen bring being brought in for Michael Pinnon.
71:27And I'm not sure I believe that now, if Alec Pierce, isn't going to be a hundred percent, especially to start the season.
71:33I, I would like to see what he looks like when he does play, whenever that might be.
71:38Alec Pierce has never had a higher than a 16% target share in this offense, by the way, when he's been health.
71:44So now he's coming off of not having a training camp and it's going to be looked at to be that guy.
71:50That's going to get 24, 25 plus percent of the targets.
71:53This is, this would be where some of my concern lies because they were going to ask him by default, by necessity
71:59to expand what he was going to be doing within the offense.
72:02Last year, you saw him add to his game.
72:05He used to, he went from a pure vertical receiver to somebody who was running more crossers, was running more digs and doing it capably.
72:11And very early in the year, that was clear.
72:14But now with Pittman gone, they were going to be asking him to do a little bit more stuff, even more closer
72:20to the formation, working through some of the muck over the middle of the field.
72:24Couldn't work on that over the course of the summer.
72:27Like the, the guy that we saw add to his game, maybe more than any other receiver in the league from the
72:3223, 24 season to the 25 season. And you'd think with another full off season could do it again.
72:38Didn't have the off season to do it again.
72:40And I think that part is concerning. And the other part is what was so cool about the Colts offense last year
72:46is that the past catching roles were so perfectly tailored to the skill sets of the players.
72:51And now, even if you like the players individually and you like the talent of the players, you are expanding what those roles look like.
72:57What does that mean? Like, what do you get from Josh downs when you've taken him from the very specific way you
73:03were using him to now he is your number two outside receiver.
73:07He's now a vertical player in a way he didn't have to be before.
73:10He's going to have more sale routes, more crossers, more 12 personnel stuff, asking Pierce to expand his menu.
73:15Who knows? Like one of the best parts about the offense is everyone was placed in their little role.
73:21Perfectly. As you change those roles, can the efficacy of the offense continue?
73:24And I kind of feel like maybe Tyler Warren could be this guy in year two.
73:28And I would guess the optimistic case for the Colts offense is that that happens.
73:33It's he's, he's not the flashiest player in the league, but Michael Pittman just felt so central to kind of gluing it all together.
73:39In my opinion, he was the runaway target leader for this team over the last four years.
73:44Warren was the first guy to get more targets than him over.
73:47Go back as far as you want. And I said it to you, I understand the financials of it all and how
73:53it all shook out, but the eagerness with which the Colts got rid of him, considering everything he's been doing for them
73:59in a non flashy capacity, surprising to me. And I'm not convinced it's just going to gel together.
74:04Even let's even say Alec Pierce is healthy. I'm not convinced it's going to gel together as effortlessly as it looked at times last year.
74:10I like the pieces, all of them. I like Josh Downs as a player.
74:14I like Alec Pierce as a player. I like Tyler Warren as a player, but as you're asking all of them to
74:20do a little bit more, does it feel just a little bit less clean than it felt last year?
74:25That's my problem. And I think that's important. Some guys do take to like a super increased role better, but I think
74:31that sometimes guys are really productive in very specific roles.
74:34Like there's probably a difference in how Alec Pierce plays and produces when he's getting targeted five times a game versus potentially
74:40like 10, if things really go a certain way for them.
74:43And so I just think how some of that looks and how some of that shakes out.
74:47I'm a little bit worried. I feel a little bit better now that they have Keenan Allen to at least replace some of the Michael Pittman stuff.
74:55But I think Michael Pittman currently is like a tier or two better than what Allen is giving you.
75:00I think I read a report. He's, he's expected to be available for week one, despite he was arrested over the weekend.
75:06That feels worth noting at least. How they play the two receiver stuff.
75:09I'm curious about too, just who's out there because I think part of the concern is that the reason that Downs hasn't
75:15been a part of those looks before is that his limitations in the run game just make it hard to figure out
75:21exactly what you can do when he's out there in those two receiver in those two tight end sets.
75:26And now the challenge of the coaching staff becomes, we have to play with tendencies, right?
75:31If he's out, if we're throwing every time he's on the field, defenses are going to start responding to that.
75:36And so how do we have enough runs in the menu when he's out there and we can hide him in on
75:42those runs in order to make sure that we're not creating these really, really heavy, heavy tendency things as an offense.
75:48And so I think that's the type of stuff they have to be weighing.
75:52And I think that was the type of stuff that they were weighing, even in a world where Keenan Allen wasn't a
75:57part of this because the Keenan Allen and Alec Pierce, I still think you need Josh Downs and some of those looks
76:03for you to feel as dangerous as you want to feel as an offense.
76:07He was a vertical player at North Carolina. He can do some of this stuff.
76:11And in training camp, they, the best challenge we talked about this was Spencer Fano, how there is no better challenge as a undersized play strength questions tackle.
76:19Then playing against Jared verse every single day. Josh Downs every day at training camp has to play against sauce Gardner and
76:25Travarius Ward and press coverage and see what he can do.
76:28And so they, they know exactly what they can get out of Josh Downs as a receiver because they were pushing against
76:34the fence every single day over the last month.
76:36We'll see what it ends up looking like. Please never give up.
76:39I'm never going to give up. I love, I believe in the, I believe in the Josh Downs experiment.
76:45What is keeping you up at night, Dave, about the 2026 Indianapolis Colts?
76:48It all, we've covered it all, but it all rolls together.
76:51Like at some point, trying to replicate lightning in a bottle, as you start to lose bits and pieces of it, just
76:57feels like a scary strategy where, if it was just Alec Pierce moving into a bigger role and coming off of an injury, that would probably be fine.
77:05If it was just Daniel Jones recovering from an injury, that would probably be fine.
77:09If you were just replacing another starting offensive lineman, which we haven't talked about, by the way, Tanner Bordelini and Matt Gonsalves
77:15really made me eat my words last year because you would have had no clue that they were new to the lineup.
77:20Jalen Travis has to do it this year now.
77:23Maybe he will. And maybe the Colts just have the secret sauce for replacing starters with day two and day three draft picks.
77:29And it's not a big deal, but that's something to watch.
77:32We just mentioned everything wrong with the defense and counting on two cornerbacks to make up all that ground.
77:37Is it possible? Maybe. Is it likely? I don't know.
77:40We're going to find out, but there's just, there's so much hope with this team.
77:44There's so much like squinting to see it, that it makes me nervous that you can actually replicate what we saw last
77:50year with as much consistency as you need. I mean, I'm in the same boat.
77:54I just don't really think the offensive. I just don't think the offense can do.
77:58Even like 85% of what it did last year.
78:00Cause again, just the accumulation of all these things.
78:03It's not just one thing. Like Dave said, it's, it's all of it together.
78:07And like, I think the other thing that we haven't quite talked about, and it makes sense, but once Daniel Jones got
78:13hurt and then went down, like the run game just was not very good.
78:16Yeah. It was bad. Like they just could not move people the same way.
78:20Like even if Daniel Jones didn't run a lot, a lot of what they were doing was they were at least making
78:26him a threat on some of those runs. And also through week 10, when Daniel Jones was playing in healthy, they were,
78:32they were calling the offense in a very specific way.
78:35They were not running a lot on first down.
78:37They were like one of the heaviest pass on first down teams.
78:41They had a third lowest designed run rate on first down.
78:43And they threw to the six 38.5% of the time, which is the eighth highest in the NFL.
78:48First down was a like, we're chucking it sort of down.
78:51And then second and third down was like, get on track and get our explosives.
78:55Once Jones got hurt, that flipped. I wonder now it's like, okay, if Daniel Jones is going to be a little bit,
79:01not healthy, do they really want to be one of the most pass heavy first down offenses in the league?
79:07Cause the other teams in that stratosphere are like the Rams are kind of like this.
79:11The bears are kind of like this. The Jaguars are a little bit of this.
79:15And it's like, those are teams that I think have a little bit better quarterback.
79:19And so at least, especially I think like the Rams.
79:22Part of me think is just the way you should play offense though.
79:25Even if the quarterback quality isn't quite at the same level, I think that's just the way you should approach NFL offense.
79:31I think the through line between those teams is the quality of the play callers and the approach that they're taking to the process.
79:38I agree with that. I think with them just being so far on the extreme of it and getting away with it
79:44with a lesser quarterback than some of those teams, I wonder how, how sustainable that really is.
79:48I think that's my biggest question. When I said the Brown game was bad, it was below average success rate for Jonathan
79:54Taylor in the back half of the year. He had a 55% rushing success rate on under center runs in the first eight weeks.
80:01So to go from 55% to below average is a precipitous drop.
80:04So that's, it's worth it. I mean, that would have led the league by far, by far, by far.
80:09The best teams are like 49%. I mean, he was, he was MVP.
80:13We had a fight about whether he should win offensive player of the year at mid season.
80:17And then it just, you know, a bunch of shit happened after that.
80:21I pretty much said my piece with the, with the defense to me, it's the defensive margins.
80:25And I, I don't disagree with you guys about the offense.
80:28I think I'm more willing to, I don't think there'll be the best offense in the league.
80:33I think I have enough inherent faith in Steichen.
80:35And I like enough of the players that I could see them being a top 10 offense.
80:40Again, I can see them being like a back half of the top 10 offense again, but combining that if they're the
80:46eighth best offense in the league with the defense that God damn, how many things have to go right for them to
80:52even be a top half of the league defense.
80:54Where does that leave you? It leaves you probably on the outside looking in, in the AFC.
80:59I will say, I don't want to speak for you, Derek, but the Colts are a fun situation where three weeks into
81:05the season, maybe all your concerns about this are satisfied.
81:08Like if Daniel Jones really does just look like he picked up where he left off last September.
81:12Does the two halves of last season make you think differently about that?
81:16Because it could look good for eight weeks. Well, okay, but he, he got hurt.
81:20Yeah, I know. I'm not. I'm mostly kidding. But with him, he gets hurt a lot.
81:24And I do think that that is a consideration.
81:27He does get banged up a lot. Hopefully it's going to be better than broken leg and torn.
81:32Right. That was about as worse, as bad as it had gotten.
81:35My nice interpretation of this though, is like if, if Daniel Jones is healthy and looks similar and the offense is fine,
81:41especially this offense, like if JT is that guy again, you can ball control the shit out of this and run the
81:47football and impose your will on teams to mask a defense.
81:50Like that still works, especially now with the way things are trending back toward the run.
81:54Like this offense could mask a lot of defensive deficiencies.
81:57If it is that sort of unit, I don't know if it will be, but you can hope.
82:02The volatility. They just have to lean into the volatility on defense.
82:05And that has to be it because outside of lots who taking a significant step, which I do think he is capable of doing.
82:11I think there is a universe where he is a, you feel him over the course of these games, but then missing
82:17out on Trey Hendrickson this spring is, is one of the bigger, like pivot point, like moments of the entire off season.
82:23Because if Trey Hendrickson is on this team with Latu and you look at the interior, then maybe it's a little bit
82:29easier to talk yourself into the youth on in the secondary.
82:32But now I just think it's, again, so many things have to go right.
82:36Like it's a little bit different when you're banking on Trey Hendrickson, getting you 12 sacks over the course of the season,
82:42compared to some combination of like Arden Key and Caden Curry and Michael Clements.
82:46So many things have to go right for this team.
82:48So let's talk about them going right. What a success look like for the 2026 Colts, Dave.
82:53Unfortunately for them, nobody wants to hear that shit.
82:55Make the playoffs. It's been since 2020. I mean, they, they must make the playoffs, make the playoffs.
83:00And ironically, this division was one that you could win with nine or 10 wins for like five years.
83:05Like this, we joked for years about, oh, just pencil them into the four seed that the AFC South is going to get.
83:12I don't think that's the case anymore. We're all super high on the Texans.
83:15We'll see if the Jags can follow up that success, but anybody in the AFC could be the one seed this year.
83:21That's the feeling. Yes. Yeah. But this division produced two 12 plus win teams last year.
83:26And that could happen again. That's not outside. This is the AFC South.
83:29It's a, it's a different situation. This is a way harder division to win than it was two, three, four years ago.
83:35The Colts, they don't have to win it, but they just, they got to get to the playoffs.
83:40And I think that's much harder in today's AFC South than it was, but I don't think anybody wants to hear it.
83:46I mean, Ballard himself said during training camp that he wouldn't give himself a contract extension if it was offered.
83:51Cause he knows they need to make the playoffs.
83:54He's he knows that if they do not make the playoffs, he's out.
83:57They like, I don't think there's any ambiguity about it whatsoever.
84:00And so I think that organizationally, there's an understanding of that.
84:03If I can spin it a positively just for a second, but this, if we're trying to think about the optimistic multi-year
84:09view on this, the oldest player on the offense is 30.
84:12Other than Keenan Allen. He doesn't count. Right. He's not like a camp body.
84:16He's going to be here for a little bit.
84:18The oldest player on the offense is 30. They have $60 million in cap space next year, and they could free up a lot more of it.
84:26If this offensive infrastructure proves to be real, there is runway with this.
84:29There is a multi-year potential runway with this. And that does, if they look even close to what they did in the
84:35first half of the season with the quarterback back healthy, and you can project that over a multi-year level and you have resources going into next year.
84:43Could we feel decent about this team if they sneak into the playoffs and the offense proves to be that?
84:48And that's why I think success for me, this is kind of specific, be the 2024 Buccaneers.
84:53Except in their case, they would get to hold over the offensive infrastructure that made the 2024 Bucs what they were.
84:58The 2024 Bucs, they only went 10 and seven, so it's not like they blew the league out of the water, but
85:04they were fourth in scoring on offense and they were 16th on defense.
85:08That's probably about what the vision should be. It was blitz happy too.
85:11Yeah. The defensive personnel had some huge questions about it, but it got you by.
85:15It's actually a really, it's a good comparison. Be the 2024 Bucs, but keep your play caller.
85:20Yeah. They would keep their, and obviously, you know, the Bucs get to the playoffs and lose a game to a red hot Washington team.
85:27And so I'm not necessarily saying that part, but just like how the regular season felt and why you were the team that you were.
85:33I think being some version of that, and then you get to hold over what was good about your team to begin with.
85:40I'm like, that that's not a bad outcome for, for what this season could be.
85:44But that's a top five offense. It was a top five offense.
85:47That's different than again, finishing 10th on offense this year and being interesting.
85:50And we like stike in, but it's imperfect. That's that gap between those two things to me is the difference maker.
85:56Because if they're 10th or 11th on offense, which is like a pretty reasonable outcome, given all the stuff that has happened.
86:02And they are 19th on defense. Is that a playoff team?
86:05Probably not. Probably not. Do you think if they don't make the playoffs, it's a house cleaning or do you think stike and could stay behind?
86:12It's a great question. I truly don't know. I think that every organization has to decide how they're going to handle that a little bit differently.
86:19Some teams are just going to look at it as an opportunity for a clean break.
86:23I will see what happens this year. It would have to be a truly a real step back from him specifically.
86:29For him not to have a job immediately. Sure.
86:32Like immediately. That's why if the offense looks remotely similar, you could talk me into that.
86:36Yes. You know, yes. Changing, changing the general manager, keeping Shane Steichen in place.
86:40That doesn't seem far fetched to me at all.
86:42No, I don't, I don't think it is, but it just depends on how teams want to handle it.
86:47Right. I mean, it's just, everyone's going to do that a little bit differently.
86:51And I understand both approaches to it. Let's get to the Tennessee Titans.
86:55Our preview for the 2026 Tennessee Titans. They're off season in 60 seconds.
86:58Robert Solomon is the head coach. Brian Dable in as the offensive coordinator.
87:02It's going to take a while. Signed Wondell Robinson, John Franklin Myers, Elante Taylor, Cordell Flott, Jermaine Johnson in a trade for
87:07Devandre Sweat, Austin Schlottman, Daniel Bellinger, Jacob Martin. Again, some of those guys a little bit further down are going to start.
87:13So that's why it's worth mentioning them. Lost Devandre Sweat, Arden Key, Sebastian Joseph Day in the draft.
87:18Cardinal Tate, Keldrick Falk, Anthony Hill, and Fernando Carmona.
87:21Again, fifth round pick, but looks like to be a starting guard right now.
87:25What are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 Titans, Derek?
87:28I'm kind of excited to see Robert Sala's microwave defense here.
87:31They have at least five new starters on defense.
87:34You know, Cordell Flott, they signed, Elante Taylor, they signed.
87:36I mean, you just mentioned all of them. And so I think half of them are guys who played in the New York area.
87:43Half of them are guys who have played for the New York area.
87:46And like some of these guys, yeah, played for Robert Sala specifically.
87:50John Franklin Myers had played for him in Tennessee for a little bit.
87:53And Jermaine Johnson had a really good 2023 season with Robert Sala, made the Pro Bowl seven and a half sacks.
87:59The year after that, he tears his Achilles. And then 2025 this past year, he was kind of working back from that.
88:05And so I actually have like a little bit of faith that Johnson could be a year after the year sort of player with the injury.
88:12I liked Keldrick Falk a decent amount, especially if he can just be kind of like an early down glass eating type so far in this defense.
88:19And so I don't think that this is going to be a good defense, but Robert Sala had last year's 49ers defense
88:25that had nobody by the end of the year, especially up front playing incredibly hard.
88:29I think that this defense is, is more talented than that, especially when you have a guy like Jeffrey Simmons.
88:35And so I'm just excited to see how quickly they can get off the ground between Sala with the Jets.
88:40Cause like Solomon Thomas is here. Tony Adams is hanging out on the depth chart.
88:44Sala with the Jets and Brian Dable bringing in former giants.
88:47I mean, that's 40% of the roster. You feel good about that?
88:50Not really. I feel better about them. Their defensive roster last year was pretty disgusting at a certain point.
88:55I don't disagree with that. It's more so just trying to recreate the Jets and the Giants over the last five years.
89:01Is that something we want to be doing? The Jets defenses were really good.
89:05I'll give them credit for that. Those Jets defenses were incredible.
89:08The problem is even if you make those Jets defenses, which I think you'll have a harder time doing without Sauce Gardner
89:14and Quinn Williams, and you make the Giants offenses, where does that leave you?
89:18Not in a great spot. Not in a great spot.
89:21Probably outside the playoffs. I'm sorry. I'm taking the wrong tone with what are you excited about section.
89:25Mine is just the remade front four. Just even beyond that.
89:28We'll talk about the cornerback signings. Like those are just the types of things where you're throwing a lot of around a
89:34lot of money to what end I have questions about, but the front four is just drastically different than it was a year ago.
89:41We talked about this when we were discussing, I can't, I think it was darn darn Wilson and just a different level
89:47of talent that he's dealing with, with the Giants.
89:49Jihad Ward led the Titans and edge pressures last year.
89:52So having some combination of Jermaine Johnson, Jacob Martin, and Keldrick Falk as your new edge players compared to what it was
89:58a year ago, that is a drastic improvement. And the idea of John Franklin Myers playing next to Jeffrey Simmons.
90:03I'll take that. I was going to say, have we said, I'll take that.
90:07Have we said Jeffrey Simmons on this segment yet?
90:09Cause that's definitely worth being excited. Even him just having more help.
90:13It's just, and literally my, what I'm most excited about is John Franklin Myers playing next to Jeffrey Simmons.
90:18That would, that was the thing in my notes, but I was expanding it a little bit.
90:22So I'm looking forward to that group feeling drastically different than it did a year ago.
90:27I remember really liking Jacob Martin as a bit signing.
90:29I didn't expect to see him in the starting lineup when training camp ended, but he had some nice moments.
90:35Keldrick Falk is a young player with a long, with a while to go.
90:39He is. Exactly. It's going to take him a little bit to get off the ground, but like, it's not even just
90:45to the, like the players are different. Obviously losing to monitor sweat is going to hurt, but he probably never made sense for this defense.
90:51This is just such more, I mean, it's the Robert Sala way.
90:55It is an attack defense. Jermaine Johnson is going to get up the field.
90:58John Franklin Myers is going to get up the field.
91:01I think having Simmons in a role where like the whole defense is built around him doing that.
91:06I'm kind of excited to see. And then like Solomon Thomas and Jordan Elliott, when they're depth pieces, that's pretty good.
91:12Like there've been stretches for where Jordan Elliott has been like a starter in San Francisco.
91:16And I'm like, I don't know about that, but if he's coming off of the bench, that's actually a pretty good spot for you to be in.
91:23Dave, what are you most excited about with the Titans?
91:26I understand that you have to ignore everything that happened in the preseason to still be excited about Cam Ward, but I
91:32am, I'm choosing not to see it. I'm choosing to believe that it's preseason nonsense.
91:36I remember when Jamar Chase said catching pro footballs was harder for him because they didn't have stripes on him and everybody thought he was going to suck.
91:44And that turned out okay. And jury's still out.
91:46Right. Exactly. I'm triple crown, you know, I'm, I'm choosing to be excited about Cam Ward despite a month of reasons to dampen my enthusiasm.
91:53I mean, the preseason was not pretty. The first, the second game wasn't that bad.
91:57The Seattle game. He had some moments, the Seattle game.
92:00He had some moments. We got to, we got to move beyond has some moments though.
92:04We got to move beyond. I understand, but like that can't be the conversation about Cam Ward.
92:08I will get to that. He didn't have a completion that traveled more than six air yards in the preseason.
92:14Yeah. He was, he put a number of them on people's hands, which is the problem that it has been last year.
92:20But is Cam Ward. You're the same vision. It's not, we already know that one.
92:24The sword is drawn for Cam Ward. He is ready.
92:27I'm not trying to bag on Cam Ward, but I mean, and it wasn't just him by the way, like Cardinal Tate had a very forgettable preseason.
92:34The offense just, I wanted it to look more put together.
92:37I wanted it to look more like guys with a plan instead of squinting and saying, that was a really cool throw.
92:43It didn't get completed, but look how, look how fast it came off of his hand.
92:47And it just didn't happen. The, and the, the scramble play, was it against Seattle where he got, that was, yeah, that was, that was, that can't happen.
92:55We can't be doing that shit in year two, especially having gone through the year that the Titans already went through.
93:00So you're right though. Like it, it, it shouldn't be enough to chase us off of being excited about Cam Ward.
93:06So I am still excited about Cam Ward. I just don't, don't do that.
93:10Have my, no, don't do that because I was about to make a joke about it.
93:14Oh, I'm missing something in, in our doc where I have the category.
93:18I have the category answers. This is the best Freudian thing.
93:21I spelled Titans are Titans, like giants, T I A N N T I A N T S.
93:25You didn't, you didn't do that on purpose. That was not on purpose.
93:29I'd been staring at it. I was like, that looks wrong.
93:32It's going to bother me. That's incredible. That's all you need to know about where my brain is at right now.
93:38They are the Tyants. They are the Tyants. They are the Tennessee Tyants.
93:41Unbelievable. What are you watching in the first month of the season with the Tennessee Tyants, Dave?
93:46Well, let's just keep that trend going. Cause I was critical of the free agent additions.
93:50This just felt very much like a team that spent a money on B players, like $70 million for Wondell Robinson, $58
93:56million for Elante Taylor, $45 million for Cordell Flott.
93:58I just mentioned at least a couple of New York Giants.
94:01When has this worked? Exactly. They're starting centers also from the New York Giants.
94:05center, Bell, Daniel Bellinger is hanging out here. Like look through the depth chart and you'll, you'll remember some guys from the
94:11last four years of New York Giants football. I will say, I'll try to be charitable and say, I'm willing to keep an open mind at least.
94:18And that's why it's something I'm watching in the first month of the season.
94:22Wondell Robinson, even if I don't find him a super exciting addition, he's a reliable guy that can probably be a steadying
94:28presence in the slot for Cam Ward. And even if it, you know, thinking about it reminds me of what we said
94:34about Khalil Shakir in the AFC East preview, where it's like, well, what are you getting like in terms of explosives and
94:40where are we finding these big plays? I care about that less for Cam Ward because we're just trying to get to a stable floor for the offense.
94:48Like we're just trying to look consistent and respectable.
94:50So maybe Wondell Robinson can be better in that regard than I give him credit for.
94:54Maybe these cornerbacks, if Jeffrey Simmons and some of the other front players that we talked about are on their stuff, maybe that looks better.
95:01So in the first month of the season, I just want to see, do I feel about these big money additions that
95:07the Giants paid a money for B players and this was a mistake?
95:11Or can these guys do more than I'm giving them credit for?
95:14And I think for me, the line is like, I think we all understand they, they overpaid for all of these players.
95:20I mean, that's the name of the game. But I think we don't want to be in Halloween being like, already looking
95:26at over the cap being like, how can we get out of this?
95:29I think you at least want to be like, that's a mini what is success.
95:33You want to be like, yeah, we overpaid, but like, yeah, you're like, yeah, we overpaid, but at least Wondell Robinson is doing something for us.
95:40At least Lonelante Taylor is a good nickel for us.
95:43When I say, when is this worked out? I'm more mean on a sustainable level.
95:47When, when, when we see teams throw this type of money around, even in the best case scenario, we've talked a lot
95:53about the 2017 Jags on this show in a way that I can't even believe.
95:57But in the best case scenario, you get a 2017 Jags season where you spend all of this money and you have this massive leap.
96:04They go to the AFC championship game and then it fell apart immediately.
96:07And that's often what happens. And so even if we know that, that you probably can't build a team this way, you
96:13will need a combination of Carnell Tate and Keldrick Falk to start lifting you in order to be a good team over time.
96:20You can still have it be one year where you realize the benefits of spending that way.
96:24So for this year, even if we understand they're not prudent financial decisions over a multi-year period, and they speak to a
96:30lack of underlying roster talent, can the microwaving work?
96:33That I do. I'm open to that fact that that could be true.
96:36I came around pretty easily on the idea of Wandel Robinson being an important player for Cam Ward's development, that in a
96:42year or two, you're like, okay, now what's the next thing?
96:45But he could be very useful and productive on this version of the Titans, and that is worthwhile.
96:50Why do you think we all want Cam Ward to succeed so badly?
96:53Do we just think Cam Ward is cool? He's cool as f***ing.
96:57That's a perfectly reasonable answer, but it's like you can feel it oozing out of all of us.
97:02Why do we want this so bad? Why are you sitting there spending time idly?
97:06I can just imagine you on the couch looking at the Titans depth chart being like, man, Wandel just really gives Cam Ward a reliable underneath option.
97:13He really needs that. We're talking about him like he's our child, and we're watching him play football.
97:18Why is that? It might just be because he's f***ing cool.
97:21Six times on any Cam Ward tape, he does something that very few people can do, even at this level of football.
97:27That might sound hyperbolic, but some of the throws he made last year are just completely insane.
97:31He's a springy thrower. I enjoy watching him throw the football.
97:34And also, he needs to clean some of it up.
97:37Don't get me wrong. The preseason play is ridiculous, but there's a nonchalance to the way he does it that is just incredibly fun.
97:43And mixing those two things together, it's just enticing.
97:46And I won't give up, and that's how I wind up thinking Wandel Robinson's going to have a great year for the 2026 Titans.
97:52We'll say my Cam Ward, my what I'm watching was Cam Ward related, but we'll talk about that with what's keeping us up at night.
97:59What is your, what are you watching over the first month of the season here, Derek?
98:03Mine is for the second year in a row.
98:06Can this offensive line get off the ground? And I, and like Peter Skaronsky, I think it really has really become, come
98:12into his own as a really good player. JC Latham.
98:15I'm still like holding a candle that he can be a really good player.
98:18And I think you saw some of those moments, even in the preseason.
98:22I know it's the preseason for a third year player, but I think I was pretty high on that.
98:27Austin Schlotman. I know he made the joke that he's coming over from the New York Giants, but that is like, you hope just passable veteran play.
98:34And then Fernando Carmona, the rookie right guard, who's the fifth round pick.
98:38He did look pretty nice in the preseason. I have like, you know, again, you don't want to put too much expectations
98:44on him, but he, at least the fact that they felt good enough about him, that they could just cut Cordell Volson, who I think was there.
98:51If we have to start him guy, I do think that that makes you feel a little bit better about it.
98:57And then the offensive line coach, they bring in, I think his name is Carmen Brasillo.
99:01That is his name. He was their offensive line coach with the Giants.
99:05And like that Giants offensive line did get a lot better over the two years that he was there.
99:10He is an objectively good offensive line coach. The, the, what the way that guys have played under him compared to where they've played elsewhere.
99:16Jermaine Illuminor is the best possible example of this.
99:19Jermaine Illuminor was an afterthought in free agency and is getting paid real money because of how he's played with the Giants.
99:25Like they've done a great job. And he's somebody that I didn't realize during a conversation with a couple other coaches this year.
99:31And I brought his name up and they were just like, Oh yeah, he's the real deal.
99:36And I was like, Oh man, like, I just didn't realize that he had that sort of.
99:40Curating among the coaching world, but I very highly regarded as, as a coach and like Illuminor is the big one.
99:46And the, another one I think too, like they brought in John Runyon to play guard for them.
99:51And that to me is one of those signings where it's like guy who was like a mid-level player kind of on
99:57and off the bench for, for the Packers. Those are signings that can go pretty wrong, pretty fast ecosystem.
100:02And he was totally solid for them. Yeah. And it depends on what you drop him into.
100:06Yes, exactly. And he was the fact that they've got that.
100:09I thought you meant Runyon was in Tennessee and I was like, God damn.
100:13Another giant. They'd be happy with that. That would be really funny.
100:16Oh my God. Rather than banking on a fifth rounder, which who knows that might be fine, but you're really asking.
100:22You're still asking for a lot of your offensive line coach.
100:25And I do think that that's another part of this.
100:28I think if you looked at it from the outside and maybe you weren't aware of what his track record looks like,
100:34you'd say, Oh man, they lost Bill Callahan. What is that going to be?
100:38I think they're going to be just fine with that changeover.
100:41The rest of the offensive staff, we could talk about it, but the offensive line coach specifically, I do feel good about that.
100:47My, what I'm watching over the first month is cam word related.
100:50We're going to have that conversation. I think here in a second, Dave, what is keeping you up at night about the 2026 Tennessee Titans?
100:57What if all the sick ass throws in the world don't make cam were a viable NFL quarterback.
101:02It's putting a really fine point on it. Yeah.
101:04I looked this up among quarterbacks who have attempted at least 150 passes since 2020 cams 2025 season in EPA per drop
101:10back only finished above Zach Wilson, Shadur Sanders, Dylan Gabriel, Bryce young, and Spencer Rattler.
101:14His success rate narrowly edged out. We'll live as we'll Levis.
101:17In addition to the guys I already mentioned, like pretty, pretty bottom of the barrel stuff.
101:21I'll give you one. First 17 games, EPA per drop back per true media wedge between JJ McCarthy and Deshaun Kaiser.
101:27Not good. JJ McCarthy, who like we were talking about, maybe he might get cut from this Vikings team and to show
101:33Kaiser, who was on does the own 16 Browns year.
101:36Some rough numbers with cam words were here. You know what?
101:39For as much as I love cam word, Kaiser is not a bad comparison because Kaiser's three best throws a game.
101:44We're running for the hill. Don't say that. The other difference with Kaiser, Kaiser like had talked about on a podcast that
101:50he did not love football that much. I'm not worried about that with cam word at all.
101:55I think that there are other elements. There are other elements that make me feel significantly better about cam war than I would have about Deshaun Kaiser.
102:02But just in terms of like guy who the arm is incredible and makes two really cool throws a game, but the rest is like a really shaky.
102:10They were just recoiled. You can kind of just recoil stared like side.
102:13I think it will be a lot better than that.
102:16But like when you are down with a lot of those other quarterbacks, like most of the quarterbacks who live in that
102:22world of how bad the APA per drop back was, they don't come out of it.
102:26You get the Alex Smith every now and then you get the Jared Goff every now and then for the most part,
102:32those guys end up being pretty doomed. And again, I think cam word is talented enough.
102:37And if you want to have some copium about it, the only guys that really do climb out of it are the
102:43first overall pick Jared Goff and Alex Smith, both first overall picks.
102:46Alex Smith is a very good example. Jared Goff is, but I think Jared Goff is the more telling example.
102:51We've seen this happen where Jared Goff, I throw Caleb Williams in there, Trevor Lawrence, the guys who have climbed out of
102:57that sort of rookie year, a lot of them have had massive improvements in offensive infrastructure.
103:01They have gotten paired with the guy who has helped change the trajectory of their careers.
103:06Do we think Brian Dable is going to be that for cam word?
103:09Because I have serious concerns about that kind of stuff.
103:12And that is what is keeping me up at night.
103:15Can I ask a different question that is sort of on that path?
103:18We were just talking about Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.
103:21Is there a chance Brian Dable can be like Doug Peterson ish, where it gets off the ground for a little bit.
103:27And this is not the long-term answer for him.
103:29That actually might be a good comparison. Gets him off the ground enough that we feel good about the long-term runway that
103:35like, okay, this still needs some improvements, but you see enough where you're like, yes, that's of course, that's why he was the first overall pick.
103:42Did you see enough with the Giants over the last few years for you to believe that could be true?
103:48I'm not sure I did. And my other concern with this, and I brought this up, the Dable offense has really only
103:54ever worked when the guy can run. Cam Ward is not a runner like that.
103:58Like he's mobile and he has good escapability, but in the same way that like Baker is an escapable guy, but you don't run him.
104:04Like, I think that like that is kind of where I put Cam Ward.
104:08I understand what you're saying. I also think a way of framing that is the Dable offense has only worked when Josh Allen was the quarterback.
104:15Yeah, that is another good way to put it.
104:18It only worked when they had a superhero. And I know you're talking about the 22 Giants, which, but even that was, it was so weird offense.
104:25I can remember that was an offense that you can't do year over year.
104:29No, it was that works. One's going to say it theoretically worked.
104:32It was a remarkable coaching job. I was incredibly impressed.
104:35But then when they've had to expand beyond that in any way, it never came into focus ever.
104:40And so that's part of it with me is that I just don't know if this is the right crew to get this thing done.
104:46I just don't know how much faith I have in it.
104:49Like you look at, I didn't say this in the moment we were talking about the Cowboys, but I wanted to, and
104:55this is a good time to bring it up.
104:58One of the reasons I'm so enthusiastic about the direction that Dallas has taken is that you look at the staff and
105:04every choice they made about how they built the staff over the last two years, two off seasons combined has been, who's the right guy?
105:10Who's the best guy? Not who do I know?
105:13Who did I work with? Who's the best guy to have this job?
105:16And I think if you look at other teams that have done that, Seattle is the best case example of this.
105:22Mike McDonald hired Aiden Durday to be his defensive coordinator.
105:25They'd never met before. He walked into the interview.
105:27He impressed him. And he felt like a guy that was a really good compliment to what Mike maybe didn't have quite as much.
105:34He was a player's, a player centric coach, his ability to connect with guys, how, what his presence felt like at the front of the room.
105:41And you have those puzzle pieces that fit together.
105:43That did, that hasn't happened here. Right. It happened.
105:46And the places where that's happening, I think is conducive to success.
105:49Gus Bradley is the defensive coordinator for this team.
105:51Right. And like Jeff Ulbrich is not here in a way that he was when he was with the jets.
105:57There's just so much of this that just feels a little easy and a little stale.
106:01And it seeps out whatever enthusiasm I might have for their ability to pull this thing out of a tailspin.
106:06And I think kind of to that same point, I think with some of those coaches, you worry about like, okay, if
106:12they come over, are they really going to retrofit this thing to the best ability to the players on hand?
106:18Or is it going to be their offense? And with Dable, I'm look at the moves they made this off season.
106:23And with Dable, I'm extremely worried that it will be his offense.
106:27And I think specifically for Cam Ward, let me ask you this, both of you guys, who, who should Cam Ward play
106:33like in the NFL as a quarterback? In my mind, it's like somewhere along the like 23 Baker Mayfield, like Jordan Love,
106:39like we are chucking it as a drop back passer.
106:41I was thinking about Trevor Lawrence. Yeah. That's what I was thinking about.
106:45Yeah. Over the second half of his rookie season and what I expect this offense to be now, it's a lot shorter ADOT.
106:51It's a lot more RPO. It's a lot more quick game.
106:54I'm like, that's not, that's not why you draft Cam Ward overall.
106:57He's not a precision player. That's not what you're asking him to be.
107:01Exactly. Funny that we would wind up in a similar place as the guy we were just talking about 40 minutes ago
107:07and how long it took the Jags to put him into a situation that felt conducive to his skill set.
107:12I could do, I could do Jordan Love too.
107:15I could talk myself into that. But again, that's, that's what Jordan Love is doing.
107:19He gets nothing like what you're describing. I would do.
107:21I would take that even further. I think Jordan Love, if dropped in game one of his career, would probably look a
107:27lot like Cam Ward did last year. Yes, he probably would.
107:30I think that that is absolutely a perfect way to put it.
107:33And again, Jordan Love, the reason part of why Jordan Love works, he gets a year on the bench and an incredible ecosystem.
107:40Cam Ward got neither of those things. I was about to say something really, really fatalistic and mean.
107:45Oh no. Are we already in a place where we're just going to be thinking about where Cam Ward has to rectify,
107:50like resurrect his career in three years? I refuse.
107:53Even if, even if there's reason to feel that way.
107:56I really hope not. I can't, I can't do that.
107:58We can't, we can't pull the plug. I'll cross that bridge when I get there.
108:02We can't pull the plug before we've even seen him play.
108:05I don't want to do that, but he is the perfect candidate for something like that.
108:10If it doesn't work out here, I promise you somebody would talk themselves into Cam Ward in a few years.
108:15It's also, it's, it's very instructive to bring up the history with guys like Jared Goff.
108:19And obviously you get into these, you get into such an enviable infrastructure between coaching and the personnel.
108:24Hopefully Brian Dable can just get Cam Ward to a baseline similar to like what I'm talking about with Wondell Robinson.
108:30If the Titans are like the 21st offense in the league this year, screw it.
108:34The 24th offense in the league this year. And Cam Ward just looks passable.
108:38That is a step in the right direction to the point where you can start to think about a future with Cam Ward.
108:44And it doesn't have to mean Brian Dable is going to be the OC for the next five or six years.
108:50So no, I'm not already thinking that way. I want to at least see what this looks like with a guy who's played 17 games.
108:56I understand it's a ridiculous thing to say, but it is a, it is a thought.
109:01But the fact that it's like, yeah, kernels into your mind.
109:04It's like, I don't think it's unreasonable. It was mostly a product of how many quarterbacks that we've seen.
109:09If he does flame out, how many quarterbacks with this level of talent are just hanging out out there.
109:14And it's like, because the thought is if Jordan Love had never wound up in green Bay, what does Jordan Love's career look like?
109:21Yeah. And like Sam Darnold, like these guys that are really talented that never found the right circumstance.
109:25It takes a second chance to get the most out of them.
109:29And I hope I'll do this way. I hope we don't end up in that place with cam ward.
109:34That's all you can do at this point. Although the, the, the jokes about cronyism with personnel are just funny.
109:39Like the memes where people say like Brian Dable, what if I hired all the guys who got me fired?
109:45Like, that's funny. But when you think about it in terms of the ideas coming into the building, that unsettles me deeply.
109:51Like if, if you're making easy, familiar hires, and this is the guys that Robert Sala identified in his second stop, and it's just not very inspiring.
109:58That unsettled me a lot. I think that's, to me, it's a through line of how really good teams operate.
110:03And like, even the teams that, and again, I think the Cowboys and the Seahawks, there's another parallel with, they made a
110:09familiar, easy choice with one of the coordinators going into year one, because it's year one of a first time head coach.
110:15They realized very quickly that was incorrect. And then went through an incredibly thorough process to make sure they were hiring the right guy.
110:22The second time around. I can't believe that we're talking about the Cowboys as an example of what to do, but that's why it feels different.
110:29Life comes at success. All right, Derek, what is success for the 2026 Titans?
110:32Pretty much what we were just talking about, but not feeling that way, not feeling like this is the end and that
110:38we have to like scrap anything or do we want to move on.
110:42I think if you feel like if you make, again, we can talk about whatever the long-term ramifications for signing these defensive
110:48players are, but if the defense is microwaved correctly and we feel like Cam Ward should absolutely continue to be the quarterback moving forward, that's enough.
110:55Yeah. Be a pain in the ass to play.
110:57Cam Ward looks good. Sala has the effect you hope he can on the defense.
111:01You know, the Titans have finished with a bottom three point differential the last two years.
111:06They had a worse point differential than the Raiders.
111:08That's not surprising. It's surprising to me. The Raiders are the team.
111:11We always use as the benchmark for ineptitude. They picked number one in the draft.
111:15I thought at least the time, and especially there were a few like cool Cam Ward games.
111:20I was surprised to go back and see that they had a worse point differential than the 2025 Raiders.
111:25So have a normal point differential. Even if you win like, if you win like five or six games, but you're a
111:31scrappy pain in the ass team to play and people don't just write the W next to your name before the game
111:37even starts, that would be a step in the right direction.
111:40Write the ship with Cam Ward. Have Sala prove that he's a serious defensive difference maker.
111:44Simple. That's it. All right. That is all we've got for the Titans and for the AFC pre AFC South preview.
111:50We'll be back tomorrow with the NFC North until then.
111:53Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.
111:55Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button.
111:59So you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like comment and leave a rating.
112:04We'll see you next time. Bye. Bye.
More episodes from The Athletic Football Show
49ers manhandle Rams on Thursday Night Football
Sep 11, 2026
Week 1 Preview
Sep 10, 2026
Recap: Seahawks beat Patriots in season opener
Sep 10, 2026
