2026 AFC East preview

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 50 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Sep 1, 2026

Published

Tue, September 1, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Drake MayeA.J. BrownD.J. MooreRomeo DoubsAustin HooperBreece HallDalton KincaidGeno SmithHunter HenryJosh AllenKenyon SadiqKeon ColemanKhalil ShakirKyle Williams

Player analysis

Player insights

A.J. Brown

PositiveProjection35:24

The source is highly enthusiastic about A.J. Brown joining the Patriots, noting his continued high-level efficiency and ability to win on vertical routes, which provides the Patriots with a legitimate top-tier receiver.

Insight page

NegativeUsage36:58

The source notes A.J. Brown took a step back last year, citing both offensive numbers and Matt Harmon's Reception Perception data. There are concerns regarding chronic knee issues, which reportedly influenced the Eagles' decision to move on and the Rams' decision not to trade for him. To extend his career, the source suggests he should be used more as a move-around piece rather than a perimeter-only receiver.

Insight page

Austin Hooper

NegativeRole43:12

The source describes Austin Hooper as being deep into his career and notes that he was never primarily a blocking-focused tight end, necessitating additional depth at the position.

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Breece Hall

NegativeRole62:26

Breece Hall is back on an extension with the Jets after previously being on the franchise tag.

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D.J. Moore

PositiveUsage3:26

The source highlights DJ Moore as the most significant offensive addition for the Bills, providing a viable WR1 who is significantly better than the receivers Buffalo has rostered over the last two seasons.

Insight page

PositiveProjection20:28

Despite discouraging numbers in his second season in Chicago, the source is confident in DJ Moore's outlook with the Bills due to Josh Allen's quarterback play and the team's lack of quality receivers since Stefon Diggs left. Moore is expected to be a significant upgrade, with his target share likely to increase from last year's 16%.

Insight page

Dalton Kincaid

NegativeUsage26:02

Dalton Kincaid is an elite pass-catcher who ranked third in yards per route run last year, but his fantasy value is capped by limited snap counts (around 55%) and poor usage in 12 personnel sets.

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Drake Maye

PositiveProjection36:13

Drake Maye is set up for success with an objectively improved receiver corps featuring A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs, providing him with more pop and optionality than he had last year.

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PositiveValue51:57

The source identifies Drake Maye as a foundational piece of the Patriots' roster, noting that the 2024 draft class is considered a success primarily because of his presence.

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PositiveProjection58:59

The source views Drake Maye as a true difference-making quarterback and believes he is capable of handling pressure and throwing hot, which makes the Patriots' offense more promising than Jacksonville's.

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Geno Smith

NegativeProjection62:24

The source notes that Geno Smith did not have a good year last year and questions whether he has anything left in the tank for the upcoming season.

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Hunter Henry

NegativeRole43:06

The source notes that Hunter Henry is valued for his receiving ability, but acknowledges he is not a primary blocking tight end, which led the team to add more blocking-focused bodies at the position.

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Josh Allen

PositiveProjection9:52

Josh Allen remains a top-tier fantasy asset, having finished in the top five in total EPA among quarterbacks every year since 2020 and top three since 2021. The source notes he is a 'force of nature' with no performance valleys, and the team is looking to blend his high-volume passing peaks with the improved efficiency and decision-making shown over the last two seasons.

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Kenyon Sadiq

NegativeInjury65:21

Kenyon Sadiq has had a weird summer, but is not on the PUP list and is expected to play early in the season, likely in a limited role.

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Keon Coleman

NegativeUsage21:26

Keon Coleman led the Bills with 20 targets of 16+ air yards last season, but the team's overall lack of explosive passing production was a significant issue.

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Khalil Shakir

NegativeUsage20:59

Khalil Shakir was the only Bills receiver with a decent EPA per target over the last two years, but he averaged the fewest air yards per target among qualified NFL receivers.

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Kyle Williams

NegativeRole54:00

The source suggests Kyle Williams' snap count could increase following the trade of other players, though there is some skepticism regarding his role given the team's other roster moves.

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Romeo Doubs

PositiveProjection35:43

Romeo Doubs is viewed as a very strong WR2 for the Patriots, having finished 29th in yards per route run last year. His skill set complements A.J. Brown well, particularly on vertical outside routes.

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NegativeRole39:24

The source identifies Romeo Doubs as a truer X-receiver for the Patriots, noting his proven ability to handle that specific role on the perimeter.

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Skyler Bell

PositiveBreakout2:02

The source expresses high excitement for the fourth-round rookie, with one speaker comparing his potential to Ja'Marr Chase based on preseason observations.

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Stefon Diggs

NegativeUsage37:33

The source notes that Stefon Diggs is no longer the one-on-one winner he used to be, functioning more as a zone-sitting receiver at this stage of his career.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,437

0:00Welcome to The Athletic Football Show presented by US Bank.

0:03I'm Robert Mays. Today, it is the AFC East preview.

0:05Really good conversations about some of these teams. I feel like we really chewed on what could go right, what could go wrong.

0:12Obviously, the Bills and the Patriots at the top have sky high Super Bowl aspirations.

0:16The Jets and the Dolphins are in a slightly different place.

0:19But it was fun going over what that means and what success can look like for all the teams in this division with Derek and Dave.

0:26Let's get to that conversation right now. Digging into the AFC East today, the one guy that comments on every single show

0:32that we do asking us to talk about the Bills is going to be really happy today.

0:37I almost as a bit, even though we're doing these all in divisional order, like the odds to win the division, I

0:42was almost as a bit going to skip the Bills and actually start with the Patriots just for his sake.

0:48But we are going to start with the Bills.

0:50It's a big Tuesday for him. Congrats to you, my man.

0:53We're going to talk about all the teams, I promise.

0:56In the division preview, we're going to talk about all the teams.

0:59We spent 30 minutes talking about the Raiders and Browns.

1:02I promise you, we're going to talk about all the teams.

1:05Let's dig into our preview for the 2026 Buffalo Bills.

1:08Hire Joe Brady as the head coach. Jim Leonard as the defensive coordinator.

1:11Traded for DJ Moore. Signed Bradley Chubb, CJ Gardner-Johnson, D.

1:14Alford, and Mike Dana. Lost David Edwards and Reggie Gilliam in free agency.

1:18In the draft, TJ Parker, Davis and Igbenosin. And I do know how to say that.

1:22In the second round, Skylar Bell, Jude Lowry, and Caleb Elarms, or in the fourth round.

1:26All those guys, except for maybe Skylar Bell, will come up in conversation, which is why I included them here.

1:32Well, let's just say Skylar Bell. Excited by what I saw in the preseason.

1:36We can just leave it there. Well, I expect you would be.

1:39You said he was Jamar Chase. I have a close eye on Mr.

1:42Bell. I also like how I think the last episode you did, you were like, I don't want to necessarily sit here

1:48and hype up every fourth round pick. There's nothing more fun than a rookie I liked who hasn't done anything yet.

1:54For each of these teams, we're going to start this conversation with what we are most excited to watch with this team in 2026.

2:01Derek, why don't you kick us off? What are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 Buffalo Bills?

2:06I mean, the only real addition on the offense, which is DJ Moore.

2:10And I think I think why I'm so excited about it.

2:13One, it's easy to say, like, well, they just didn't have anybody the last couple of years.

2:18So them getting anybody who's like a pretty good, viable wide receiver one, I think is nice.

2:22But I think this has a chance to be like the best blend of the two Josh Allens we've seen.

2:28Like from 2020 to 23, when he had Stefan Diggs, this was a chuck it up offense.

2:32Like he threw the ball 590 times a season over that stretch.

2:36Like they were one of the most pass heavy.

2:38And part of that was they couldn't run the ball very well.

2:41So, of course, they kind of had to. But the last two seasons without a star receiver, then leaning more into the run game.

2:48He's only thrown 470 times. Like it's been a lot more like we're trying to put the limiter on this offense, see how that goes.

2:55And I think that this is kind of the blend between the two because DJ Moore is not as good as Stefan Diggs.

3:01But he's significantly better than the guys that they had before.

3:04I find it interesting that you think the run pass splits are a product of the receiver talent and not any more like overarching.

3:10I think it's a little bit of all of it.

3:13I'm curious what it is. And actually, we can talk about this a little bit later.

3:18But one of the things I wanted to bring up is just we don't know what the offense is going to look

3:24like now that Joe Brady has no limiter. I mean, I don't think my understanding, because when I was there, I asked somebody about this.

3:30It was like, do you think that McDermott was putting his thumb on the scale for how run heavy the offense was?

3:36And they were like, no. I don't think that was the case.

3:40And in part, I believe that because even if maybe he wanted Joe Brady to run the ball a little bit more

3:46than Ken Dorsey was, he let Brian Dable live the life Brian Dable was living multiple years in a row as the offensive coordinator for this team.

3:53So even if maybe that's Sean McDermott's preference, I don't know if I fully believe that this team was as run heavy

3:59as it was because it was Sean McDermott's choice, not the way that Joe Brady wants this team to play.

4:04Also, they were really good at it. Like, yes, they're extremely good at it.

4:08So and like even even if Sean McDermott was the reason why they leaned into that more over the last couple of

4:14years, knowing that you can be that good. Why would you try to go too far away from that?

4:19Which we're getting into the semantics of how we build the show a little bit.

4:23But when I prepped for the Bills, I started off with DJ Moore as the thing that excited me most.

4:29And then between who I think the Bills want to be and what DJ Moore was this past year in Chicago, not

4:35to say that he can't be good. Please don't misconstrue me.

4:38But I was like, how excited should I be?

4:40Like, this is the best receiver that Josh Allen has had since Stefan Diggs.

4:44But what does that mean in 2026, which is how I wound up not being as excited as I thought I was when I started prepping, I guess.

4:52We'll talk more about the DJ Moore thing in the offense in a bit.

4:56What was yours, Dave, that you were most excited to watch this season?

4:59The other big thing is Jim Leonard taking over a defense that we've watched be one way under one guy for so long.

5:05And it's not so much. They made some additions like the Alfred is there.

5:09They spent two big draft picks in the second round on defensive additions.

5:13Chauncey Gardner Johnson, for as volatile as his personality is, success tends to follow him for at least a year or so.

5:19But also, it's just Jim Leonard being the voice for this defense after so long of Sean McDermott and what that means.

5:25And also trying to parse through. He was a college, a college D.C.

5:28at Wisconsin and was very successful at it. And he's been in the background for one of the most successful defenses in

5:34the league in Denver for the last two years.

5:37What the hell does all that mean? Like, what does Jim Leonard want an NFL defense to look like?

5:42Like, we will hit that in a second because that is what I'm watching over the first month of the season.

5:48What I'm most excited about, on a pretty simple level, it's just watching Josh Allen play football.

5:52Sure. I mean, he's incredible. We did, and part of the reason I wanted to do this in such an explicit way,

5:58I was with Joe Biscaglia in Buffalo after the training camp practice we watched.

6:02And we did the beat writer notebook that we do from all of the stops.

6:06And we made it like, Bell are going to test this.

6:09He edited them. We made it like 22 minutes into a 25-minute conversation and we didn't say Josh Allen's name.

6:15And I think it's just because we just know what it is.

6:18There's nothing really to talk about as it relates to Josh Allen.

6:21And I wanted to put some numbers on that.

6:24So Josh Allen, since 2020, so the last six seasons, has finished top five in total EPA among quarterbacks every single year since 2020.

6:30He has finished in the top three every year since 2021.

6:33He is absolutely the only player that has done that.

6:36He's at 751 total EPA since 2020. My homes is at 708.

6:39No one else in the league has more than 363.

6:42Lamar missed a lot of time. Yeah. Lamar has been banged up and he's had a couple of down seasons in there.

6:48Yeah, even if the peaks are just as high.

6:50And I think that's what's so remarkable about this run that Josh Allen is on.

6:54There have been no valleys. He has been a force of nature every single year in the regular season since this breakout happened.

7:01His worst finish that entire time in the stat we're talking about is fifth.

7:04It's crazy. Like he is. And that's why I understood Dave picking the Bills number one in the offense draft, because you

7:10can set your watch to what Josh Allen is pretty much every single year.

7:14And when I watch this team, I don't think it's as simple as Josh Allen carries the Bills and the rest of the Bills roster is disgusting.

7:22We talked about the run game. They've built a real infrastructure in certain parts of the offense.

7:26But I think what he is capable of, it honestly reminds me a little bit of it's like the quarterback version of

7:32watching Jamar Chase, where there's just this overwhelming kind of force of nature physicality to the way that they play the game.

7:38And I find them terrifying because of that. And so when I watch this team, that's what I get excited about watching,

7:44even if it's not interesting or new to say that.

7:47Like that is my answer about the Buffalo Bills.

7:49He's a runaway cement truck playing quarterback, and it's always very fun to watch.

7:53And we had the same conversation with Lamar when we did the Ravens preview, but Lamar has he had the down year, whereas Josh is still chugging.

8:01But like what Derek and I are excited about are things that within the context of the Bills will help Josh Allen

8:07slay the dragon that he has been unable to slay.

8:09Like that's why it's exciting to add a better receiver to the offense.

8:13That's why it's exciting that the defense might be better than it has been.

8:17But at the core of it, we should remember that we're really excited to watch Josh Allen play football.

8:22And that's that's why the DJ Moore thing is exciting to me, because we can get the best of both of them.

8:28Like if Josh Allen can be because in 20 to 20, 23, again, it was a lot more throwing it deep.

8:34It was a lot more kind of chucking it all over the yard, just a lot more volume in terms of the passing game.

8:40And because of it, he was more up and down because that's just a lot more.

8:44It's just a lot of stress on the quarterback to have to play that way.

8:49He threw more picks, things like that. But as they've put a little bit more of a limiter on the passing offense, really not because he's an issue.

8:56But the interceptions have dropped down like they've been a little bit more consistent.

9:00And he, I think, has actually developed a lot mentally over the last couple of years and really taken ownership over what

9:06they do pre-snap, getting them into the right looks, setting protections, all that sort of stuff.

9:10So if we can get the floor being higher, like it's been over the past couple of years, and go back to

9:16what some of the peaks have been at his best when he's really been a throw-it-all-over-the-yard quarterback, it's like, I don't know,

9:22man, maybe he just is definitively the best quarterback in the league if we can get both of those worlds to fully blend.

9:29Looking back at some historical EPA numbers for quarterbacks, I was just curious, like who else had reached that level where it's

9:35700 over the course of a five-year span? You go back and Brady and Peyton from 05 to 2010, like those are the sorts of numbers.

9:42Breeze from 10 to 15, Rodgers from 10 to 15.

9:44One thing I realized, though, while looking back at some of that stuff, this is Josh Allen's age 30 season.

9:502007 was Tom Brady's age 30 season. Peyton Manning won the Super Bowl in his age 30 season.

9:55So the guys that have lived in the stratosphere that Josh Allen inhabits, the age 30 seasons have been pretty good for those players.

10:01Yeah, just throwing it out there. Drew Brees was 30 when they won the Super Bowl, too.

10:06Wow. There you go. So there is a through line here.

10:09For each of these teams, we're going to talk about what we are watching the first month of the season.

10:14So just a curiosity, a question, something you want an answer on early in the year.

10:19Derek, why don't you kick us off? What are you watching the first month of the season with these Buffalo Bills?

10:24Yeah, Dave mentioned it a little bit earlier, but it's Jim Leonard's defense.

10:28And I think there are a couple of ways we can take it.

10:31It's like how different are the coverage is going to be and all that stuff.

10:36But to me, I'm a little bit more interested in how the front personnel works out.

10:40I think that's the most interesting thing. And what does he want to do with it?

10:44I actually think Deion Walker, in a system like this, where the nose can be a little bit more explosive, move around a little bit.

10:51That's kind of what Keanu Benton was at Wisconsin when he was playing under Jim Leonard.

10:55And I think that that can work really well.

10:58TJ Sander, a lot of their other defensive linemen are like gap shooters.

11:01It's like TJ Sanders is supposed to be that.

11:04Ed Oliver is that when he's at his best.

11:06To get a little bit more beef at like the five tech position, they actually asked Landon Jackson to add on like

11:1220 pounds, which I actually think works for him because around the edge, like he was probably never going to cut it.

11:18He's just not a bendy, you know, move type of edge player.

11:22But him being like that 280 pound, just like stuff against the run sort of player.

11:26I actually like that. And then the linebackers are like very specific to me, like run through space players.

11:31And so I wonder how much they try to weaponize that and just give those guys run throughs by.

11:36If you just ask Ed Oliver to cut across a guard's face, that man's probably terrified.

11:41He's not going to see whatever linebackers coming behind him.

11:43So I think just how Jim Leonard really weaponizes a lot of unique and I think pretty good pieces for the most part on this front.

11:50The actual front, the defensive line is probably the most interesting part of this to me just because you've sought out body

11:56types for a very specific type of defense for a really long time.

12:00And I think the guy that I was most interested in, that they were most interested in, like how is this going to work, was Greg Rousseau.

12:07And they were open about that when I was in Buffalo.

12:10They're like, we, that was the guy we were like, how is this going to work?

12:15And he took to it really well. That was a situation where very early on, they were just like, oh, this is going to be fine.

12:22Like he'll be able to play with his hand off the ground.

12:25He'll be an edge player for us. We're not concerned about that.

12:28The defensive, interior defensive lineman, I do think it fits those guys.

12:32Like I think them playing in more of like a slanting attacking style overall is probably good for this run defense overall, which we can talk about.

12:39I mean, that was the worst part of this entire team last year.

12:43They're bottom five in EPA per carry. 29% of opponent runs went for first downs last year against the Bills.

12:48It was the second worst mark in the league per next gen behind only the Cowboys.

12:52They allowed 65 runs of 10 plus yards. Only the Giants were worse.

12:56Jesus. So, and I think some of that is driven by the fact that when you were in, the Bills played more

13:02five down fronts last year because they were in more base looks than they had ever been before.

13:07I mean, they were playing like 60% base after playing 80% nickel.

13:10Excuse me. They're playing 60% nickel last year after playing like 80% the last two years.

13:14And you saw the five man front numbers, the next gen numbers essentially mirror that.

13:18They went from playing 80% four man fronts in 2024 to about 61% last year.

13:23But those five man fronts are all just one linebacker walked up to the line of script.

13:27There's not a lot of variety involved in that.

13:30I think there's going to be a ton more front variation with this group.

13:33And I think that the group is going to feel and the scheme is going to feel more dynamic.

13:39The types of run blitzes you're seeing, the types of stunting that you're seeing.

13:42And so even if we look at these guys and like you said, maybe TJ Sanders isn't like a two gapping five technique.

13:49The Broncos aren't really built like that. Like the Broncos, like John Franklin Myers comes from the Jets world where they play that attack style system.

13:56And so even if we think of like five technique defensive ends or four eye defensive ends in a three, four, and

14:02we think of like Patriots guys from 20 years ago, you don't have to do that.

14:06If you play with a certain amount of aggression up front.

14:09And I do think that's going to be the way they try to solve problems.

14:13I mean, even DJ Jones, as like the Broncos knows, it's like he can hold up against the Niners, but he came from the Niners.

14:20Exactly. He's like a slant, like go turn back and hit a guard sort of thing.

14:24So like, I think if they take some of the flavor of that style of defense, obviously the edge players I think here are pretty different.

14:31They're a little bit longer. They're a little bit bigger than a place like Denver.

14:36But even that I think can kind of go to their advantage because I think like adding a TJ Parker, I think

14:42can be nice for them on the edge. If Rousseau really takes to it and he's been a pretty good edge setter,

14:48but if like he really takes to it in this new defense, it's like this starts to become a front that I

14:54actually do like assuming the safeties behind them are not missing a tackle every single run.

14:58Have we said Chubb's name yet? No, that's something to watch.

15:01Understatement of the segment so far. And he's the guy who understands the defense.

15:05He was the one guy who drafted to play in this type of defense that currently plays for the defensive line.

15:10So I think he's one of the guys that can make it come alive pretty quickly if he can stay out there.

15:16The coverage stuff I'm curious about. I mean, obviously they ran a lot of man coverage in Denver, but I think some

15:22of that is a product of having arguably the best cornerback in the world.

15:26And so when Jim Lennon was at Wisconsin, you would know this better than I would.

15:31It wasn't some man-heavy scheme like the Broncos are running.

15:33And so where they fall between the coverage menu we saw in Denver and what he was doing at Wisconsin and how

15:39it fits these players, that to me is one of the big questions because I think it's easy to graft a lot

15:45of the Broncos ideas onto this team. And have that be your projection.

15:49I don't think it's as simple as that. And so that's the other part I'm watching is like on the back end,

15:55what are they actually trying to do? They ran a ton of quarters in the preseason.

15:59They were about as vanilla as you could possibly be.

16:02It was like 28% of snaps. So I really don't know coverage-wise like what they're going to try to be on that side of the ball.

16:09Which like I wonder too how much of the man coverage stuff he brings because I like they in theory maybe do have the corners to do it.

16:17They could. Like Benford I think is absolutely good enough to do it.

16:20Maxwell Harrison when they drafted him like that was the idea, right?

16:23That he could run with people and play man coverage.

16:26I think D'Alfred from the nickel can handle that well enough.

16:29So like they have the guys to do it.

16:32And I'm curious too how much do they turn up the blitzing?

16:35Like how much do they turn up? Oh, I think they will.

16:38I think they will. It would be impossible not to.

16:41That's right. McDermott Worlder just doesn't do a whole lot of that.

16:44And I like it's just preseason. But there were even like second and tens where like so on some of these early downs that are theoretically still rundowns.

16:52Like I remember seeing one play. I think it was in the game against the Steelers.

16:56It's second and ten. They send one linebacker and green dog the other.

17:00Like they're sending six guys on these like relatively early downs.

17:03And so I think a little bit more of that is probably good for this defense.

17:07No one in the league blitzed less often than Buffalo over the last four years per true media.

17:12And it was like below 20%. So even if he doesn't go whole hog like Denver Broncos style where it's up near

17:18like 35%, anything is going to be more than what we've seen from the Bills in recent years.

17:23It would be interesting because at Wisconsin, they didn't blitz a ton, but they were just a huge simulated pressure team.

17:29And we're at a space now where I'm talking to offensive coaches in the training camp tour this year.

17:34One of the things that came up was just that simulators are just less effective than they were like three or four years ago.

17:40You're almost the whole goal was to get the best of both worlds where you can pick on protections, but then still get seven guys into coverage.

17:48And now I think some of it is getting the worst of both worlds where you're not actually heating up the quarterback,

17:54but you're still leaving voids because guys vacating space.

17:56And asking players who are not good coverage players to be in coverage.

18:00Exactly. And so I obviously there's still there's a time and place for that kind of stuff, but I'm not sure it

18:06will be as central to his identity here as it was when he was at Wisconsin just because the league has shifted a little bit.

18:12But I do expect I said this during the defenses draft.

18:15I picked them pretty high. I think this will be a defense, especially compared to what they have done over the last

18:21few years where they try to make a mess, where they just try to make a mess of things, especially up front.

18:27And I think if you're undersized, which they are, that's the right way to handle this.

18:32Watching this team over the last couple of years where you had pretty static four man fronts.

18:36There's not a ton of movement. It's really easy to get picked on when you were an undersized front seven.

18:42And I actually think them being more aggressive and like you like the idea of Terrell Bernard just coming downhill and not catching blocks.

18:48I think that's the right thing to be asking him to do.

18:52You absolutely need to do more, more of that with him.

18:55Like, again, like you said, if you're going to be a we kind of sit on our heels, wait for things to come to us.

19:01You just need to be bigger than they are and tackle better than they are.

19:06And those were, I would say, two of their biggest issues the last couple of seasons.

19:10I think that's encouraging, too, because you're right. Like, that is why you drafted Maxwell Hairston.

19:14Davis Enigmanosin is there, too. To some degree, some of the stuff on the Bills back end feels more theoretical to me than proven, you know?

19:21I think definitely is. And so, like, Hairston is, we'll see.

19:24He missed three weeks of camp again. Mm-hmm. Cole Bishop had some, he showed some promise last year, but I'm not ready

19:30to say that's, like, a proven playmaker on him.

19:33I'm excited to see him in this defense. I'm excited.

19:36I'm excited to watch Cole Bishop in this defense.

19:38I think he actually makes a lot of sense.

19:40I am excited about a lot of pieces of this, but I wouldn't want to roll the ball out there and just be like, we're better than you.

19:48Like, yeah, let's muck it up a little bit.

19:50Let's make it easier on these guys. I think that's what they have to do.

19:55Because the way they were playing before is the defensive approach, and not on the back end.

19:59Obviously, they did so much wonky shit on the back end, but up front, it is the defensive approach of a team

20:05that has far more defensive talent than the Buffalo Bills have had over the last couple years.

20:10My, what I'm watching is obviously what Jim Leonard is doing over the first month of the season.

20:15I came prepared for that conversation. What are you, Dave, what are you watching over the first month of the season with the Bills?

20:21Like I said, we just flip-flopped it. I was excited about Jim Leonard because I think highly of him as a defensive mind.

20:28Not saying DJ Moore can't be great, but I just, I want to see what that looks like.

20:32Because when I was digging into it, I mean, the numbers are not encouraging for DJ Moore's second season in Chicago.

20:38And a lot of that can be explained away, right?

20:41But how much confidence should we have that it was an aberration instead of a sign of things to come?

20:46Now, you're playing with Josh Allen. That gives me a tremendous amount of confidence.

20:50And then also, Bills' receiver core just hasn't been anything special since Stefan Diggs left.

20:54DJ Moore finished with a better EPA per target over the last two years than any Bills receiver other than Khalil Shakir.

21:00Khalil Shakir averaged the fewest air yards per target of like any qualified receiver in the NFL.

21:05So, DJ Moore being a warm body who can catch the ball past the sticks is a new thing for the Bills.

21:11His ADOT last year was 11.6, which is not great, but it blows pretty much every other Bills.

21:16That's good for DJ Moore. There have been years where he's been more gadgety than that.

21:20And it blows like every other Bills receiver out of the water.

21:23And that's the part that I wanted to talk about.

21:26I looked this up last year. Keon Coleman led the team with 20 targets of beyond 16 air yards or 16 plus air yards.

21:33No other wide receiver on the team had more than nine.

21:36Well, I think Dalton Kincaid had like 14, but none of the other wide receivers.

21:40The only other NFL teams that had a receiver with no more than 20 targets of 16 plus air yards were the Jets and the Commanders.

21:47Horrendous offenses. Similar line of thought. The stat I found was the Bills were 28th in explosive passes where the ball traveled 10 plus air yards.

21:54So, get the bubble screens and stuff like that out of here.

21:57With Josh Allen playing quarterback. And that's, I mean, Steelers, Jets, Raiders, Browns.

22:01Like, that's who you're talking about keeping company with.

22:03If I was trying to spin this in a positive way, if I was trying to provide some cope to Bills fans

22:09about why this will look different than it looked last year in Chicago, I would do it this way.

22:14In the Bears offense last year, in the first half of the season, if you needed like a big bodied in-breaking route,

22:20who were you throwing the ball to? I mean, Colston Lovlin, ideally.

22:24In the first half of the season. Oh, Rome.

22:26In the first half of the season. Rome. Yeah.

22:28It was Rome. And like, that's what you would do.

22:31Rome was like a bigger bodied receiver compared to DJ Moore.

22:34In the second half of the season, if you needed a gadgety throw where you were trying to have a guy create

22:40after the catch, who are you throwing the ball to?

22:43Luther Burton. Yes. And on this Bills team, if you need a big in-breaker from like a worthwhile receiver, who are you throwing the ball to?

22:50It's DJ Moore now. Before it was Keon Coleman.

22:52And if you need a guy who can make something happen after the catch on a gadgety sort of completion, who are you throwing the ball to?

23:00DJ Moore as well. Yeah. And this is a play caller we know already likes DJ Moore.

23:04They did this together in Carolina. The preseason is the preseason.

23:07There were two completions that he had where it was like, okay, this is an offensive coordinator and a play caller that

23:13knows what he is doing and how to get this guy the ball.

23:17They had a play action boot to the left where DJ Moore starts on the right, just runs that little drag into space.

23:23They get him the ball with a runway. He takes it like 15 yards after the catch.

23:28He had a completion on the right side where he motions down into a stack on the right side.

23:33So not out as like a solitary X receiver where you can press him and he struggles.

23:38You're giving him space to work. He runs like a deep outbreaker with a little bit of runway.

23:43It's like a 15-yard completion. That is the type of stuff where DJ Moore is still a very viable NFL receiver.

23:48And so I think if you know the right ways to tap into what he can give you, there is still meat on the bone there.

23:55There are good reasons why this happened in Chicago, but DJ Moore's target share dipped all the way to 16% last year.

24:01That's not happening. It's not going to happen. It's just not happening.

24:05I might be double that here. So even if he's not as efficient as you would prefer, I absolutely think he's going

24:11to be an improvement on what we've seen in Buffalo.

24:13I want to take a month to see exactly what it looks like.

24:17Two quick notes about the offense that were a curiosity of mine and I want to see.

24:22No fullback. So what does that mean? I'm glad you brought that up.

24:25It's part of my note for later. I'll be talking about that left fullback on a different team.

24:30So no fullback. So and this was a team that led the league in 22 personnel last year, used a lot of 21.

24:36That's how they got base defense on the field.

24:39They are the easiest candidate to say we're just going to use three tight ends to do that this year because they

24:45have the three tight ends with Kincaid, Hawes and Dawson Knox.

24:48But they were not a big 13 personnel team last year.

24:51They're one that I assume will do a ton more of it this year.

24:55The other element of the offense I want to see more of Josh Allen on under center play action within this offense.

25:01It should be the centerpiece of the passing game.

25:03It should be exactly what they are and exactly what they are good at.

25:07He was eighth in the NFL last season at the rate that they use under center play action.

25:12That should be in the top three. 100 percent.

25:14That should be the foundation of how you're trying to throw the ball because then you're creating separation for guys rather than being spread out.

25:21And so I want to see them do more of that because you can say that about teams that it's not conducive

25:27to the rest of their offensive identity. It's the exact complement to what they want to be as an offense.

25:32And so I just don't understand why that notch isn't getting cranked up even more.

25:36It was last year compared to what they've done previously.

25:39Right. It should be even more. Like that should be 24, 25 percent up near with the top teams in the league.

25:45Let's talk about what is keeping us up at night about the Buffalo Bills as we get on the eve of the season here.

25:52Dave, what is keeping you up at night about the Bills?

25:55My favorite Bob Marley song is called Waiting in Vain.

25:57And I just don't want to wait in vain for Dalton Kincaid to break out.

26:02I don't want to wait in vain for Dalton Kincaid's love.

26:05I'm worried about it. Look at the stats. He's clearly he is an explosive efficient player.

26:09When he was on the field last year, he was third in the league in yards per route run among everybody.

26:15Only Puka and JSN were better than him. Fourth in EPA per target.

26:18Third in yards per target. Fourth in first downs per route run.

26:21Second in EPA per route run when you're in 11 personnel.

26:24Pick the stat and it's awesome. He just wasn't on the field that much.

26:28Yeah, the problem is how many snaps did he get on 11 personnel when he was the tight end?

26:33How many? And part of it is durability, right?

26:36Like injuries have been a thing for him. But the scary thing is it's not even just about him missing games.

26:42No. Like when Dalton Kincaid is healthy, you're still talking about a guy who plays like 55% of the Bills snaps.

26:47And to be drafted, whatever it was, 23rd overall and be the first tight end off the board.

26:52That's not nearly good enough for what I was hoping Dalton Kincaid could be.

26:56And you look at, I mean, we are the presidents of the Jackson Hawes fan club.

27:00And we saw what the Bills did with multiple tight ends.

27:03The splits when they get multiple tight ends on the field are very bad for Dalton Kincaid.

27:08Like they don't want to use him in those situations.

27:11And this is why I wanted to talk about Reggie Gilliam.

27:14It's interesting to see how this will work without a fullback.

27:17Like maybe this all changes, but for a team that was so good at running the ball and wants to get into

27:23those sorts of looks to run the football, Dalton Kincaid's not that useful of a player to you.

27:28And again, that's a shitty place to be for a guy you drafted that highly who does have real deal potential.

27:33But just how big can the role for him be?

27:36And it's, I mean, it's year four. I don't know the answer to that.

27:40It sounds like he has gotten stronger this offseason that they think there's a little bit more there as a blocker.

27:46But do you really want to be using him in that way when he's hurt all the time?

27:50No, that's the thing. When he's proven to be banged up, I don't know how much I want him like throwing a shoulder into Max Crosby or something.

27:58It just doesn't seem like I would want to do that.

28:01Like he's, he almost is what, it's like the DK Metcalf thing coming out of college where he's exactly what everyone who

28:07loved him and also did not love him think that he was.

28:10Like purely as a pass catcher, he's incredible. Like he's one of the best pass catchers in the league at his position.

28:16But today's point, like you can only really play him so much when you're in 12.

28:21He even doesn't get featured as much as you want.

28:23He still has limitations. He only played 18% of the Bill's snaps out of 12 personnel last year.

28:28That's crazy. That is, I was shocked when I saw how low of this.

28:32But that's not surprising to me. It was surprising to me.

28:35Because if you know you're going to get nickel to that, what advantage is he giving you?

28:40Because he's not giving you an advantage against a nickel corner.

28:43And that's the problem is that when they drafted him, it was this thing of, well, if we're in 12 and they

28:49play nickel, we can just grind them down. No, you can't.

28:52You can't do that. It's like what you've talked about with the Rams and like Terrence Ferguson.

28:56If they get into 12 and Terrence Ferguson is one of the two tight ends on the field, they don't get that

29:02much value out of him because he can't block.

29:05But when you put three, now the other guys can block and he can get vertical.

29:09And that is why I think we could see more for Dalton Kincaid.

29:13Because if they're going to play more 13 and he's just a receiver, then I actually think that's the better way to use him.

29:19And I actually do think that is a path to him being on the field more and being more important to the offense.

29:26The reason this keeps me up at night, too, is Dalton Kincaid unlocking a higher level would mean so much to the Bills' aspirations.

29:32And we don't have to shy away from that.

29:35It's to win the Super Bowl. And he needs to look more like what he was drafted to be more consistently for something like that to happen.

29:42And not to say it can happen, but it keeps me up.

29:45It keeps me awake at night thinking like, what if it's just more of the same in year four and then you're

29:51heading into your fifth year option year? Mine is broader with the same tone.

29:55What if it's more of the same about how we feel about this team by the end?

30:00But we get to the end of the season and their problems are no different.

30:04We need rushers and pass catchers and we don't have enough of them.

30:07That's what I'm worried about, where you can change the defensive coordinator, you can change the head coach, but the personnel issues

30:13that have plagued this team in the most important games of the year continue to plague them.

30:18Because I think that's a real possibility. I have faith that a combination of DJ Moore and the usage we're talking about

30:24with Dalton Kincaid and Bradley Chubb and a healthy Ed Oliver, and again, a scheme where you can manufacture a little bit

30:30more than they used to be able to, I think that we may land in a place where those things matter less

30:36than they have in the last couple of years in the playoffs.

30:39But what's keeping me up at night is the fact that maybe we'll be facing the exact same issues we've always faced

30:45when it becomes the highest leverage situation. This is not the first time they've tried to address pass catcher and pass rusher in an offseason.

30:52They've done this for like two or three years in a row now, and it's kind of fallen flat for different reasons.

30:58So again, I have faith that it's going to be better, but there's a chance that it's just not.

31:03Mine is like in a similar vein where I was just like, but what if we find out how much Sean McDermott

31:09was kind of holding this thing together? That's the part we haven't really talked about.

31:13Yeah, like it just, I really, we probably say this too much about head coaches, but he really did feel like adult in the room.

31:20They hired a lot of good coaches over his span.

31:23They did what they needed to to consistently change out the offensive coaches to change things.

31:27And they're not only losing McDermott, they lost Aaron Cromer, their offensive line coach, which I think it now just puts a

31:33lot of stress on Joe Brady as now both the offensive play caller and architect and the head coach.

31:38And I just worry how much of like taking away, like you kind of talked about earlier, some of the limiters on

31:44what the offense, like what does that look like and can he really handle that and being the head coach?

31:50And so maybe it's me just like being a little bit too scared about this because I've seen Sean McDermott just do

31:56this job at a high level for a long time.

31:58But in the back of my mind, it's something I'm worried about.

32:02When you give up stability, there is downside to moving on from stability.

32:05Potentially, you get something that does feel more dynamic and exciting in a way that the I think if you want to

32:11be skeptical or be negative about the end of the McDermott era, things just might have gotten stale.

32:16And maybe this is a way to avoid that.

32:19But at the same time, when you've set a certain floor, removing that guy increases the chances that it lowers your floor.

32:25It can always get worse. Yes. It's not guaranteed to get better.

32:28Correct. It can always get worse. What does success look like, Dave, for the 2026 Buffalo Bills?

32:32Win the Super Bowl. I tried to be nice and say get there.

32:36But if you get there, you think anybody's going to feel good if you lose?

32:40I don't. I think people would still feel good if you get to the Super Bowl.

32:44I don't think they'd feel great. But you've never done that before.

32:48Getting there and showing that this version of the team gives you a higher ceiling than any other version that when McDermott was there.

32:54I still think that would be a successful season.

32:57I don't think you have to win the Super Bowl for this to be success.

33:01I think that is a bar you would not put for any other team except maybe the Rams.

33:06Yeah. But this is the team that has the quarterback that has double the EPA of anybody not named Patrick Adams.

33:11But he's going to be there next year too, man.

33:14He's 30 years old and he plays a physical style of football that is very, very dependent on him being a transformer when nobody else is.

33:21I'm not wishing that on Josh Allen, but like you only get so many bites at this apple.

33:26And if you get to the game and I know these guys weren't even babies when it happened.

33:31These guys weren't even they weren't even blinks in their father's eye when the Bills lost four Super Bowls in a row.

33:37But like when you add that on to the lore of the Bills franchise, I just I don't think there's not there's

33:43not going to be any moral victories with an MVP quarterback in his 30 30s losing the Super Bowl.

33:48I just maybe that's one of the new staff.

33:51You're one of a new staff. If you get there to me, that is a successful season.

33:55It's anything else is not. It's about Josh for me.

33:58Like you can't get me. Think about how hard it's been to even get to this point.

34:03You can't just assume you're going to be back.

34:05So like I said, it's harsh, but I don't think anybody's going to feel that good about losing the Super Bowl.

34:11What'd you say? I mean, to me, it's just get to the dance.

34:14I think that winning the game is just like sometimes shit happens on Super Bowl Sunday.

34:19But I think you have to get there. And especially like I think that there have been a handful of seasons over

34:25the last couple of years where like that should be the expectation for the Bills.

34:29I think especially with as wide open as the AFC feels right now where Mahomes and the Chiefs are not their best.

34:35It's like Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Like I'm excited for them, but they are turning over their coaching staff.

34:40They might not be as good as we want.

34:43Like I just think that there's a lot of reason to believe that this should be the year that the Bills can

34:49come out of the AFC pretty handily. All right.

34:51Before we get to the Patriots, let's take our first quick break.

34:54Let's get to the New England Patriots. Our preview for the 2026 New England Patriots.

34:58They're offseason in 60 seconds. Zach Kerr, now the full-time defensive coordinator, signed Romeo Dobbs, Elijah Vera Tucker, Julian Hill, RIP.

35:04Reggie Gilliam, Kevin Byard, Draymond Jones in free agency traded a first-round pick for A.J.

35:08Brown. Lost Klayven Chason, Stefan Diggs, Kyrus Tonga, Jalen Hawkins, Jack Gibbons.

35:12Just traded Kayshawn Booty to the Houston Texans. In the draft, Caleb Lomu in the first round.

35:16Gabe Ackes in the second round. Tight end Eli Raritan in the third round.

35:20Dave, what are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 Patriots?

35:24Drake May throwing to legitimately badass receivers, specifically A.J.

35:26Brown. And I think I've gone pretty hard on my A.J.

35:29Brown enthusiasm this offseason. But he was 17th in yards per outrun last year.

35:33All of his metrics, considering what the Eagles offense was, are still plenty good.

35:37On top of that, as much as we talk about A.J.

35:40Brown, Romeo Dobbs finished 29th in yards per outrun last year.

35:43I was curious about teams that have two receivers that finished in the top 30.

35:47There are a few. Obviously, Dallas is a big one.

35:50The Rams, Detroit. Ironically, Washington now that Stefan Diggs is there.

35:53Terry McLaurin and Stefan Diggs. I would not have guessed that.

35:56And then New England. Those are the teams. So, like, not just A.J.

35:59Brown, but a potential one with sky-high potential. A guy that we've known can be one of the best handful of receivers in the league.

36:06And Romeo Dobbs as a very, very good number two.

36:09I mean, we saw what Drake May did with a fine receiver core last year.

36:13This is an objectively good, good receiver core. And it's super exciting.

36:16Yeah, I just think that this is a much better version of what they were able to do last year.

36:22I think, like, Booty was such a—he was good for them, but he was such a specific player, right?

36:27Like, purely outside, purely as a vertical player. There was a lot of, like, curls, deep stop routes, Diggs, go balls, and stuff like that.

36:34And I think the beauty of the two receivers that they brought in is that's also what A.J.

36:38Brown is best at. Like, he is really good at the Diggs, the go balls, and all that stuff.

36:44But Romeo Dobbs is also pretty good at a lot of the stuff on that vertical outside stuff.

36:49And so they can put him there. That's why I'm really curious how it's going to shake out.

36:53Right, but they can get the best of both of it, where it's like, if they want that to be the focal

36:59point of a play or of a drive or of a game, they can have A.J.

37:04Brown go do all that stuff, and he can just win on these dig routes.

37:08If they want that to be a little bit more of the decoy or later into the down sort of option for Drake May, and then move A.J.

37:16Brown to the slot and get him moving on some of the slashing inside stuff, they can do that.

37:21And so this just feels like they have a little bit more pop and optionality in the offense that they really didn't before.

37:27And like, Stefan Diggs was good last year, but I don't think he's like the one-on-one winner that he used to be.

37:33He was like a sitting in the zone. Yes, exactly.

37:36You had to use him that way. Yeah, exactly, because Booty couldn't do any of the other stuff.

37:41And I think you can make an argument that at this point in his career, Stefan Diggs shouldn't be asked to do

37:47the one-on-one, outside-the-numbers, vertical-stem type of things. I'm curious what they do with this, not only because the way that the roles

37:53shake out are interesting because they can do a little bit of both, but I think if you're trying to spin this

37:59in like a slightly pessimistic way with A.J. Brown, he did take a step back last year.

38:03It wasn't just the offensive numbers. Like, if you look at things that are trying to isolate the performance of the receivers

38:09from the offensive infrastructure, something like reception-perception that Matt Harmon does, it was a step back for A.J.

38:14Brown last year compared to what we've seen from him at his peak.

38:18And I wonder if, similar to Stefan Diggs, as he's getting a little bit older in his career, A.J.

38:23Brown's only 29, but the knee issues are chronic at this point.

38:26Like, they are a consistent issue. It's one of the reasons the Rams ultimately didn't want to trade for him.

38:32It's one of the reasons the Eagles were ready to let him go.

38:35If you're going to extend his career and continue to get the best out of him, asking him to do less of

38:41the stuff that you're talking about is probably the best way to do it.

38:45And with him specifically, it's not moving him inside as he gets a little bit deeper in his career and seeing if he can do it.

38:52This is who he used to be. Like, he's done all of this stuff before.

38:56And so I do think that there's a world where we get a little bit deeper into the season.

39:01And even though I was trying to read about this because I was wondering, were they doing things with him more inside

39:07and on the move as, like, a Z-type receiver during training camp?

39:10And it sounds like it was mostly stuff on the perimeter.

39:13But I wonder, like, how much do we see over the course of the year?

39:18Because I think you can make a really strong argument that the best deployment of the Patriots receivers is Pop Douglas in the slot.

39:24Romeo Dobbs is, like, a truer X player because he's shown that he can do it.

39:28And A.J. Brown being more of a move-around piece than he was in Philly.

39:32And I'm very curious that that's what they ultimately land on because I think you can make an argument that's what's best

39:38for him and what's best for the offense at this stage of his career.

39:42I think that's a valid point about—and his game is so dependent on just being a physical monster.

39:47And so if you have degenerative knee issues, if you're worried about that, like, if that diminishes, it takes a serious toll on his effectiveness.

39:54But if he's 29 years old, I guess what I'm—more briefly what I'm trying to say is how much more could you

40:00get out of him out of, like, the way that he has been playing?

40:04And do the Patriots feel a sense of confidence that he's got a season or two left in the tank before they

40:10would have to worry about a pivot like that?

40:12What are you watching, Dave, the first month of the season with the New England Patriots?

40:16What do you want answers on? Who's Will Campbell, really?

40:19And the full left side of the Patriots offensive line.

40:22Like, Jared Wilson moved positions. They signed Elijah Verrett-Tucker.

40:24So the whole thing is really interesting. But is Will Campbell closer to the guy that struggled throughout the playoffs after an MCL injury?

40:31Is he closer to what he was during the season?

40:34Does he have—how much room does he have to grow?

40:36Will Campbell allowed 42% of his pressures and 44% of his sacks after the MCL injury.

40:41We've talked about it before. They were playing amazing defenses, and he strained his MCL.

40:45So there are many good reasons why he looked like shit in the postseason.

40:49But it's a new season, and what does that look like in year two?

40:52And I think the first month can give us a really good glimpse of that.

40:56I mean, that's pretty much where my mind went to.

40:59I expanded it a little further. Like, what do all of the big beefy boy shifts for the offense mean?

41:05Like, obviously, you know, you mentioned Jared Wilson moving to center, which was his native position coming out of college.

41:10I thought he was fine last year at guard, but I think him being at center probably protects him a little bit

41:16more physically, which I think, if anything, is not the best part of his game.

41:20He doesn't have guard play strength. No. That's not his position.

41:23He had enough to get by, not enough to be like a difference maker at that position.

41:28Yes. And so I think that adding a big beefy guard next to him and letting him move to center potentially accentuates

41:34Jared Wilson's strengths and limits his weaknesses. And so there is a chance that with AVT, with a healthy Will Campbell, with

41:40Jared Wilson at center, you upgraded all three of those positions in a way that you needed to because this team, and

41:46this is part of, we'll talk about this a little bit later, they did not run the ball well last year.

41:51Like, they just didn't, especially in the playoffs. They were 25th in rushing success rate over the course of the season per next gen.

41:58They had a 36% rushing success rate in the playoffs, which was like 30th in the NFL league wide over the course of the regular season.

42:05They were not pushing people around up front. But if you get better and more physical at guard, bigger and more physical

42:11at center, and Will Campbell comes back healthy, is that an area of this team that can get a lot better this year?

42:17I kind of hate that the first game of the season is a Super Bowl rematch because we just watched that.

42:23But hell of an opportunity. We're going to, you don't need to watch the first month.

42:27We're going to find out in the first game whether some of this stuff is viable.

42:32You know where they play in week two? No, I don't.

42:35Pittsburgh. So, okay. Two fronts right out of the gate that you got to prove it.

42:39Got a lot of opportunity to prove yourselves. And the last one among those, like I include bringing in Reggie Gilliam at fullback.

42:45Absolutely. We just talked about the Bills losing him, and he's like, he's about as good as it gets in terms of

42:51like moving shit around in the run game. You know who else I'd throw in there?

42:56Raritan. Yeah. The combination of Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper as your tight ends this year, and it's honestly why I'm a

43:02little bit bummed Julian Hell got hurt. Yeah. Because they really did very consciously try to add more blocking bodies at tight

43:08end this year because God bless Hunter Henry for what he is as a receiver.

43:12That's now what he is as a player. And Austin Hooper is so deep into his career.

43:16And that's never even what he was really. No.

43:19And so they really didn't have anybody to fill that role within the offense.

43:23And so if you can get a little bit more of that with Raritan and you add Reggie Gilliam to the mix

43:29on top of the physicality you're potentially adding to the left side, does this feel like a sturdier group than it did a year ago?

43:36And by the way, again, we'll touch on this a little bit later, that would make me feel better.

43:41Because this is the type of stuff that I find myself a little bit worried about with this team as we've talked

43:47about them over the last couple weeks. My what I'm watching over the first month of the season, can Zach Kerr do it again?

43:53Mm-hmm. They were really good in the back half of the year.

43:57They were really good. The last, like, 10 games they played, they were about as good.

44:01Not, like, elite, elite defense, but, like, you could slot them into that next year, and they were that good.

44:06In the back half of the season, 10th in EPA per play per next gen on defense.

44:11Couple caveats to that. Here are the quarterbacks that they played in the back half of last season.

44:16Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers, Justin Fields, Joe Flacco, Jackson Dart, half a game from Snoop Huntley.

44:20The two starting, two of the four starting quarterbacks they played in the back half of the season were Justin Herbert and

44:26Baker Mayfield, both of whom played on offenses that were bottom 10 in EPA per play in the back half of the season.

44:32They did not play a lot of good teams.

44:35Mm-hmm. They just didn't. And even in the playoffs, they didn't play a lot of good offenses.

44:40They got Stidham in a snow game. So, they got Stidham in a snow game.

44:44They got that Justin Herbert bottom 10 offense in the back half of the season.

44:48They got C.J. Stroud imploding. Mm-hmm. That's who they played in the playoffs.

44:51And then they got Sam Darnold, like, on a downturn.

44:54And I know he had played really well earlier in the playoffs, but, like, it's not like Darnold was, like, some earth-shattering quarterback that year.

45:01The Seahawks offense was plenty good over the course of the season.

45:04It was probably the best one they played over the playoffs.

45:07Yes, and the defense played well. And they played well.

45:10I'm not trying to take away from that, but there is some context to be added to what their back half of the season defensive statistics looked like.

45:17Jackson Dart, I think, was the only guy you named before Herbert and Baker who's, like, going to start for his team this year.

45:24Yes. Yeah. And even as backup quarterbacks, there's some pretty rough ones in there.

45:28Brady Cook and Quinn yours is a different sort of conversation that we're having.

45:32Brady Cook, if you expand the, like, you know, the threshold low enough, he is the worst quarterback in everything.

45:37Every time I pull up the stat sheet, I'm like, there's Brady Cook.

45:41All right. Who do I need to scroll up to find?

45:44The other part, the other two things I'll throw out about the defense in the back half of last year, in the

45:50second half of last season, against block boxes. So we've talked about this a decent amount on the previews where you have

45:56as many blockers as defenders at a given play.

45:58The Patriots were dead last in run defense success rate against block boxes in the back half of the season.

46:03They played with a lot of lighter boxes early in the year, and then they started adding, started getting heavier over the

46:09course of the year, I think because they knew they didn't have the dudes to hold up.

46:14But when they did not have more defenders than blockers on defense, they were dead last in run defense success rate.

46:20They were worse than the Bengals. They were worse than the Giants.

46:23And so there are elements of this defense. And then the last one I'd throw out, they blitzed 40% of the time

46:29starting in week 14 because they don't have the rushers.

46:32And that's another thing with this team. They didn't have the rushers last year.

46:36And now you're in a spot where your best edge player is probably Draymond Jones, who that's not what he is.

46:41He might help in the run defense. You can make an argument the run defense gets better because of him.

46:47But then what's the trade-off between him and Tonga?

46:49Right. Yeah, that's a great point. So I traded away their Bindi guy, not traded, sorry.

46:54Chason just left in free agency. But even if you get better in the run, like your Bindi sack guy is gone.

47:00So those are the things where it's like, okay, I do feel like Zach Kerr has to really do it again for

47:06this to be like a high-level defense because I just don't think there are a lot of elite players around this defense.

47:12And I think beyond the lack of elite players outside of like Gonzalez and the interior guys, I think that there are

47:18questions about just the overall quality of some of the position groups.

47:21Like Ed Rusher being number one in that. I mean, that's the thing that is like keeping me up is like it's defensively, it is a thin roster.

47:28It's a thin team. It is a thin team.

47:31The defensive line is thin. Obviously with Tonga leaving, I mean, Corey Durden played a decent amount last year, but he's not

47:37the same player that I think Tonga was. And at that point, you're leaning on like Leonard Taylor and Joshua Farmer, who

47:43I think you would want to see more of going into the season beforehand.

47:47I think their linebacker group is thin even among the starters.

47:50Like I think Christian Ellis is a pretty specific and mediocre-ish level starter.

47:53And then the guys behind him, it's like KJ Bray and a sixth round rookie.

47:57And then even a corner, like their other outside corners right now are according to our lads, Channing Canada and K'Ron Prunty,

48:03who Prunty is a fifth round pick this year.

48:06It's like if some of these guys go down, and I think the corner is very specifically important.

48:11Carlton Davis last year, that was the first time he's ever been healthy for an entire season.

48:15Yes. It's probably just not going to happen again.

48:18That's not an exaggeration. That is factually correct. That is literally true.

48:21That's probably what kept us awake about the Patriots last year.

48:24It was. I remember Robert was like, what is the point of bringing in a corner this old who gets hurt all the time?

48:31And it was like, yeah, if it goes wrong and he misses eight games again, which like it's what we said about Stafford.

48:37It's like, well, last year it worked out. Well, his back is still the same.

48:41Carlton Davis is still a guy who gets banged up all the time.

48:44It could absolutely happen. Before last year, he played 17 games last year.

48:48Four games missed. Four games missed. Three games missed.

48:50Six games missed. Two, two, three. So he's missed at least a handful of games in every single season of his career.

48:56And his most games played before last season was 2020 when he played 14.

49:00And so I think the expectation should be that he probably misses a little bit of time and the depth is just not really there behind him.

49:08That lends itself to what's keeping me awake because you're playing games with the best thing about your defense.

49:13Can earnestly, can somebody explain to me what's going on with Christian Gonzalez?

49:16Can somebody explain why he's the guy that's waiting on a contract?

49:20If I'm missing something that I should know about, there are like four of them and he's one of them.

49:25I got these numbers from the wonderful guys over at FTN last year among cornerbacks, qualified cornerbacks.

49:30Gonzo was sixth among corners in EPA per target, seventh among corners in coverage success rate.

49:34And he was the best in coverage DVOA in the league when he was targeted.

49:38And he's 24. He just turned 24. I don't understand.

49:41I mean, if there's like... You don't got to prove it to me.

49:44If there's like a latent injury concern that I don't know about, I'd love to hear about it.

49:49But like, this just seems like a guy who the deal should have gotten done in the spring.

49:54Like the minute he becomes eligible, you're just like, yep, okay, what's the top salary?

49:58You got it, Christian. And instead, Devin Witherspoon got his deal.

50:01Trent McDuffie signed this year. I don't know. This doesn't feel like it should be a hard one.

50:06But as of recording, he doesn't have a deal yet.

50:09And he is the best thing about this Patriots defense.

50:12Him and the two tackles. That's what it is.

50:14That's not fair to Milton Williams. He's awesome too.

50:17But Milton Williams makes a shitload of money. Christian Gonzalez probably should too.

50:20And when you look at what they were, especially in the playoffs, their numbers and man coverage in the playoffs were insane.

50:26It was like two and a half yards a snap when they played man in the playoffs.

50:31And you don't do that. You can't do that without having Christian Gonzalez.

50:34Like he is a central part to the defensive identity that really carried you in the back half of the season.

50:40So I'm with you on that. What is keeping me up at night?

50:44I've danced around this a lot over the last month or so.

50:47I think this entire thing is built on a more fragile foundation than you want it to be.

50:52And it extends to a couple different areas. The first part that I think is worth pointing out, we did this and

50:58kind of stumbled into the idea when we were looking at the Seahawks roster and just how well they had drafted over the last few years.

51:05And you looked at all of the in-house draft picks that were central to making up the overall quality of Seattle's roster.

51:11And then even if you go back to the Eagles roster the year before that, teams that are winning Super Bowls.

51:16How many guys that are in-house rookie contract players for the Patriots are actually making an impact on this team this year

51:22or are set to make an impact on this team this year?

51:26Five? Like above, like, and I think that number is smaller if you say even just above like average starter.

51:31Like Jared Wilson will make an impact. I don't know if he's above an average starter necessarily.

51:36And what's Will Campbell? Is he above that line?

51:38Yeah, I don't know. And you just spend a first-round pick on Caleb Lomu who's a backup for you.

51:43Which like, maybe in two years you see great fruits from that.

51:47But like, again, this year it's not going to do a whole lot for you.

51:51Five sounds about right. The 2003 and 2004 draft classes for this team are non-existent outside of Christian Gonzalez and Drake May.

51:57That's it. And so it's just really hard to be a very good NFL team for an extended period of time when you are made like this.

52:04When you've had to dip into free agency and the trade market to find the difference-making players that you have.

52:10And it is possible at the end of all of this that the quarterback is so f***ing good that it doesn't matter.

52:16That's possible. The 2024 draft class is so great because you would absolutely do it all over again because you have Drake May.

52:22Yes. And nobody else is on the team. Nobody else is on the team.

52:26They're not there. Which is crazy. I'm not even exaggerating.

52:28Nobody else is on the team. And they drafted like eight or nine guys that year.

52:33They sure did. It's not like it was a four-man draft class or whatever.

52:37It's possible to do this because you still, Milton Williams is the type of player impact-wise that you can't usually find in free agency.

52:43A.J. Brown getting him for a first-round pick, like you can wield these sorts of resources when you have a quarterback on a rookie contract.

52:50We've watched teams do this. The Bengals, you probably could have said something very similar about the Bengals early in the Joe Burrow tenure.

52:56Like, man, those draft classes are a f***ing disaster.

52:59Like, they have nobody that they drafted that they're really counting on.

53:02They had to sign every single player on their defense.

53:05Well, when you have Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase and a lot of money to throw around because your most important players

53:11are on rookie contracts, you can do that. So it is possible to do this.

53:15It just feels more fragile than it does for the teams that have drafted really well over the last couple years.

53:21And even that's a good point, though, because the Bengals did it for, what, one or two more years?

53:26And then they kind of started to hit a run.

53:29And some of that is Joe Burrow getting hurt.

53:31But it's definitely not just Joe Burrow getting hurt.

53:34I will say this. This is pure hopium. I can't believe I'm just, like, tied to the Patriots as a team I

53:39believe in after all these years and all the heartache they've put on me.

53:43Anyway, if Will Campbell and Jared Wilson are good, like, what I'm...

53:47That's a huge part of this, by the way.

53:49The 2025 draft class could make you feel a hell of a lot better.

53:53Absolutely. The two offensive linemen, Travion Henderson's going to touch the ball a lot this year.

53:57I would imagine Kyle Williams' snap count is going to go up after Booty got traded.

54:02I don't know, man. You signed Romeo Dobson that deal and trade a first-round pick for A.J.

54:06Brown. I'm not sure Kyle Williams is in the cards.

54:09I just mean, like, over the course of a season, whether it's for injury or anything else, like, I would imagine he's got a role to play.

54:16Craig Woodson was a pretty promising player. I'm very excited about Craig Woodson this year.

54:20And then, like I said, pure copium, but, like, if Gabe Ackis and Eli Raritan can do something for you early, there's a path.

54:27You're really banking on that as a team that I think people believe should win the Super Bowl or be in it this year.

54:33It has to happen, but if it does, these last two draft classes could be carrying a lot of weight for you.

54:39I think it's the overall roster quality and some of the missed draft classes and feeling that as you look at the

54:45depth and overall just quality across the board. And then, again, it's the play out front on both sides of the ball.

54:51Like, they couldn't stop the run in the back half of last year and they couldn't run the ball in the back half of last year.

54:58If everything you guys are saying about the interior of the offensive line and the left side of the offensive line can

55:04take a big step forward and we talk about those physical contributors that they've added and, like, ancillary pieces, then that changes the discussion for me.

55:12But I just think you're putting so much on the quarterback and the passing game and the corners with how you are

55:18currently built that it, to me, just feels more fragile than it does for some of the other contending teams and that

55:24is what is keeping me up at night. And has been.

55:27I mean, it definitely is. Like, it's so tried and true that, like, just winning on both sides of the trenches.

55:32Like, I don't know if that necessarily every team that wins the Super Bowl is the best, like, dominates in the trenches,

55:38but it's an easy way to stay consistent and to be able to hold year over year and be that level of good.

55:45Those are the two biggest questions I have about the Patriots are, like, can you hold up and run defense, which I

55:51think Draymond Jones helps, but I still don't know.

55:53Like, without Tonga, like you mentioned, like, what is the trade-off there, really?

55:57Like, I don't know if it's necessarily any better.

55:59I like the offensive line pieces, but it's easy to see, like, maybe Jared Wilson is just, like, a slightly below-average sort of player.

56:06Maybe Will Campbell does kind of have, like, And then you just have a bunch of average players.

56:10Of average guys. And then Elijah Farah Tucker, like, probably will not play a full 17 games because he just hasn't in a while.

56:17He hasn't played football in a year and a half.

56:20Hard to count on it. And even before that, in 2024, was really the only, like, fully healthy season he'd had.

56:25He's missed time a couple of seasons before that with different injuries.

56:29And so, I do see how it can fall apart.

56:31At least with the offensive line, they've insulated themselves a little bit with, like, depth.

56:35Like, with a bunch of guys who have done it, like, Greg Van Roten has done it before.

56:40Caleb Lomu's a first-round pick. They drafted Darius Crownover, who I think is decent.

56:44Like, at least with the offensive line, they gave themselves options.

56:47The defense, though, I'm pretty scared about if one or two dominoes start to fall.

56:51Morgan Moses is 35. I have my issues and questions with Lomu.

56:55Even if he's a first-round pick, I'm not sure I would feel good about him having to play this year.

57:00And Morgan Moses is somebody that's missed time. We talked about Carlton Davis' injury history.

57:04And again, AVT, like, it'd be great if he played 15 games this year.

57:08I don't know how good you can possibly feel about that.

57:11Yeah. This is the negative view, by the way.

57:13This is what is keeping me up at night.

57:16I don't think this is the most likely outcome, but when we've talked about the Patriots a lot over the last month

57:22and I have my reservations, this is, these are my reservations.

57:25It is funny because everything you said makes sense to me.

57:28And I think I don't worry about it as much because it's dependent on expectations.

57:32Like, I know this team was just in the Super Bowl, but, and we can transition into what makes this a successful season.

57:38I'm curious about your answer to that. I'm not holding them to that type of standard.

57:42My measure of success for the Patriots is silence the schedule frauds narrative and, like, get back to the playoffs.

57:48Like, if this team reaches the divisional round of the playoffs and loses, I think that's a successful season.

57:53I 100% agree with every single bit of that.

57:56That was pretty much my answer verbatim. If this team gets back to the playoffs, they will have earned it.

58:01And I know you can't objectively forecast the schedule ahead of time, but it is much, much better in totality than last year.

58:07Last year, they got the NFC South for starters, which they swept, and they also drew the Raiders, Titans, and Giants by

58:13virtue of a last-place schedule and went 3-0. That's seven wins right there.

58:17I don't see that this year. The NFC North replaces the NFC South on the schedule.

58:21You get the entire AFC West, and by virtue of winning the division, you open the season with Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville.

58:27There's just, there's no way this, there's no way we won't know if they're good in December.

58:32I think I said that a couple months ago.

58:34By the time we get to the second half of the season, we'll know if this is a legitimately good team or not.

58:41And so, if they get back to the playoffs, we will, we can nix the whole product of your schedule narrative.

58:46Which offense do you feel better about, the Jags or the Patriots?

58:50Oh, man. Patriots. I think the Patriots. I do think the Patriots because I think That's mostly based on the quarterback.

58:55It's a lot based on the quarterback. I think Trevor Lawrence is good.

58:59I think Drake May is a true difference-making sort of player.

59:02And I think if the biggest question I have for both of them is what is the offensive line going to look like?

59:08I think I'm a little bit more scared of Jacksonville, honestly.

59:11I do think Liam Cohn does a lot to help them schematically.

59:14That's the other part. Whereas I think Josh McDaniels does less of that and it's a lot more in like, can the

59:20quarterback get the ball out and throw hot? But I do think that Drake May is good enough at that that it works.

59:27So I would probably say the Patriots by just a hair.

59:30I was just curious because the offensive line concerns are probably in a similar range for both of them.

59:35And so it depends on how you think their stuff.

59:37I will say, and again, maybe they shouldn't have the prominence that it does.

59:41Watching their protection plan get picked on the way that it did in the Super Bowl, that was another one where it's

59:47just like, man, those are the types of things that are just sitting there in the back of my head.

59:53If this is like, I don't know, would 9-8 be disappointing for the Patriots?

59:57Yes. I think so. Because what's success for me?

59:599-8 and you get to the playoffs? That's not happening in the AFC.

60:03You don't think? No. Probably not. Okay. I think, because I think we talked about leaving playoff teams out, I think the NFC is not as hard.

60:10The AFC, they're going to leave off two or three pretty good teams.

60:13Absolutely. And so that's going to be tough. All right, well, whatever record you need.

60:18If they go 10-7 and they're the 6-7 seed, is that a disappointing season?

60:21I think for me, if you end the season and we're talking about them still like one of the 8-10 best teams

60:27in the league at the end of the year and then going into next sixth season, I think that's success.

60:33I agree. I don't think you have to get back to the dance.

60:36Like, that's unrealistic. We knew they shouldn't have necessarily been there last year.

60:40I totally agree with everything you guys are saying.

60:42The way that I framed it was prove that last year was real.

60:46Yeah. Right? Prove that last year was real. And that can mean a lot of different things.

60:50But if you come out and you're a top three, top five offense again, that is enough for me to believe that

60:56most of what happened last year and the important ways was real.

61:00Firmly make the playoffs. Like, but the way that we're talking about you at the end of this season is, yeah, you're

61:06absolutely one of the 10 best teams. Like, even if you are a wildcard team because you play in the division with

61:12the Bills, like, let's worry about all the other teams that are in the hunt graphic.

61:16You're two games up on them as like a 10 or 11 win playoff team if you don't win the division and

61:22then feel like a real team in January. And I think that probably involves winning a playoff game.

61:27Yeah. I think getting to the divisional round is a good bar for me.

61:31The AFC playoffs may be so loaded that they lose on wildcard weekend to a really good team.

61:36Sure. I think that that doesn't discount what could be a successful season.

61:39I think that version of it if everything else we said actually comes true, I'd be okay with that.

61:44Like, was Jacksonville's season a disappointment just because they played the best game of the wildcard round?

61:49Well, it's different when you're coming off a Super Bowl appearance.

61:52Fair. But like, if the Pats lost a game like that in the wildcard round, I'm not going to ding them to.

61:58I would, that's, yes. They run into the four-seat Texans.

62:01I'm going to be like, well, they do that.

62:03All right, before we get to the Jets, let's take another quick break.

62:07Let's get to the New York Jets. Our preview for the 2026 New York Jets.

62:11Their offseason in 60 seconds. Frank Reich in as the offensive coordinator.

62:14Brian Duker in as the defensive coordinator. Most of their staff turned over.

62:18It would take me an hour to list off all of the changes.

62:21Trader Jermaine Johnson for Devondre Sweat. Traded for Geno Smith.

62:24Brees Hall back on, Brees Hall's just back on an extension now.

62:27It was on the tag when we, I made these notes for the, buyer saw the offseason's list as I'm repurposing them.

62:33Joseph Asai, David Anyamana, Demario Davis, Kingsley Anagbari, Dane Belden, Nashawn Wright, Andre Sisko back, or the rest of those guys over in free agency.

62:40Lost Tony Adams, like I said, Jermaine Johnson, John Simpson, Elijah Vera Tucker, Quincy Williams, Michael Clemens, and just for Dave, Nick Folk.

62:46Wow, I don't even have that in my notes.

62:49Way to go. Kickers are people too. In the draft, David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq, and Omar Cooper Jr.

62:54all in the first round. D'Angelo Pons in the second round.

62:57Derek, what are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 New York Jets?

63:01I'm excited to see another year of this young offensive line get to step up and hopefully a run game with more

63:07normal quarterback play because I like, I think there are fair questions about Frank Reich.

63:11Geno Smith did not have a good year last year.

63:14Last year's quarterback situation in New York was like truly untenable.

63:17We just had the Brady Cook conversation. We just had the Brady Cook conversation.

63:21And Justin Fields had multiple games where he threw for fewer than 100 yards.

63:24Like it was as bad as it could be.

63:27Take a moment and relive the Broncos-Jets game with me.

63:30I'd rather not. Yeah, I'd just rather not. I'd rather not do that at this stage in the calendar.

63:35And so I think football is too close. I don't need that anymore.

63:38The new football is too close. I'm so desperate for football that I'd be happy to turn that game on right now.

63:44And so I just think if the passing game can even be like the 24th best in the league, just like normal

63:50low, mediocre bad, I do think it actually gives the run game a little bit more life.

63:55And like Armand Membu is an 18-wheeler truck, man.

63:57Like that guy is incredible already. Josh Myers is a totally acceptable veteran center.

64:01I thought Joe Tippmann when he moved to guard last year when AVT got hurt played pretty well.

64:06That was one of those two weeks into the season revelations where I was just like, oh yeah.

64:11I was like, I didn't know what to do that.

64:14Like that, again, the week one game against the Steelers is doing a lot of heavy lifting for any Jets offensive optimism.

64:20But with Joe Tippmann specifically, that's where we got our first glimpse of it.

64:24They liked him enough to extend it. Yeah. Yes.

64:26And now he gets an offseason where it's like, he's locked into being the guard now.

64:30Like last year, it was a little bit of like shuffling the chairs of like, oh shit, this is something I have to do.

64:37And so him getting a year really settled in there, I think could be nice.

64:41And then Olufushanu on the left side is like, I think we're all still waiting for him to like really take that step.

64:47But he's a totally solid player. I think especially in pass protection, he does a good job for them.

64:52So I'm just excited that this offensive line hopefully gets a more normal environment to work in and we can maybe see the best of them.

64:59I'll extend it just to the young players, the young intriguing players across the entire roster.

65:04I think there's a lot of them. Membu in year two, Fashanu in year three, David Bailey, Devondre Sweat's a really good player.

65:10Yeah. Like them getting Devondre Sweat in that trade for Jermaine Johnson, I really like that.

65:14I think that makes a lot of sense for where they are right now.

65:18And we'll see what we get from the rookie pass catchers.

65:21Obviously it's been a weird summer for Sadiq. I do not think he's on the pup list.

65:26So he will play early in the season most likely, but probably in a limited role.

65:30I think there are a lot of young guys I'm keeping an eye on with this team, even if maybe their hopes

65:36for this season are pretty tempered for a lot of reasons.

65:39When you have that many big time draft picks, that tends to happen.

65:43Similarly, I'm just, if I'm looking for a reason to be optimistic or excited about the Jets, I need to see why

65:49Aaron Glenn was a hot commodity as a head coaching candidate.

65:52He's calling the defense this year. He did not do that.

65:55There's some weird circumstances around how that wound up happening, but he is calling the Jets defense.

65:59And considering they traded away Sauce and Quinnen Williams last year, they spent a lot of resources on microwaving this thing.

66:05Like, you might not think of the Jets defense as this star-studded unit.

66:09It was all pretty modest investments, though. Like, they didn't break the bank for any single free agent.

66:14They just signed a lot of free agents. But considering this was one of the bottom five defenses in the NFL, they

66:20spent the resources for this to be a much better unit.

66:23Yes. I mean, you listed off the names, but like, having DeMario Davis wear the green dot for you, David Bailey pairing

66:29with Will McDonald, Kingsley and Igbari and David Onyamata are there, Tavondre Sweat.

66:32They traded for Minka Fitzpatrick. D'Angelo Pons is Aaron Glenn's guy.

66:35That's like the cornerback of his dreams. And so, yeah, you're right.

66:38They are all modest expenditures. But the Jets seem to have given him the resources for this to be a respectable unit.

66:44And if you're going to keep Aaron Glenn beyond this year, that's kind of my expectation.

66:49Because like, what are we doing here otherwise? Absolutely.

66:51If Aaron Glenn is not making a tangible difference on a defense that has some talent on it, not the most in

66:57the NFL, but enough to not be embarrassing, which is what they were, by the way.

67:02We should probably mention a defense that finished with no interceptions last year, a defense that had 1.7% of opposing drives end

67:08in a turnover, which again, according to FTN, is the worst number since 1993.

67:11That is not good. 1.7% of opposing drives ended in a Jets takeaway.

67:15It can't be a whole lot worse than it was.

67:18And the Jets have spent for this to be respectable.

67:20And I'm excited to see if Aaron Glenn can do something with that because that was the hope and the expectation when they hired him.

67:27I think they tried to split the difference with their offseason moves this year between not robbing the future, but also gesturing

67:33at the idea that we're giving you enough to judge the job you do as a defensive play caller.

67:38And I agree with that. That's exactly where they landed.

67:41Like if you look at the signings, Joseph Osai is the only one with a real amount of guaranteed money that goes beyond this year.

67:48DeMario Davis, two-year deal, $15 million guaranteed. That's obviously a short-term pretty much de facto one-year deal.

67:52Every other guy they signed, Anya Mata, Kingsley Nibare, Dane Belton, Nishan Wright, Andre Sisco coming back, every single other guy was a one-year contract.

67:59I don't want to make it a habit of agreeing with Woody Johnson about really anything.

68:04But if Woody Johnson told Aaron Glenn, you should be able to have a middle-of-the-pack defense with what we've provided for you

68:10this year, I think I agree with that. Do you agree with that?

68:13The front, I think, can be okay. The secondary concerns the issue is the issue out of the corners.

68:18Can you even, we use this term all the time, can it be regular bad?

68:22Can you have the 21st defense in the league with what we've provided for you?

68:27I think that's possible. Which that I think is attainable.

68:29I think that's doable. My problem with this is the things that the Jets defense should be good at under Aaron Glenn, they were terrible at last year.

68:37The only team with a worse success rate when playing man coverage per next gen last year than the Jets was the Chicago Bears.

68:43The Jets signed one of the corners from the Chicago Bears to play for their defense this year.

68:48And like, the way that their cornerback room is constructed.

68:51He's not starting because he missed all of training camp, but that was something they invested in.

68:56And like, the way that their cornerback room is constructed, it's like all guys who are like 6'2 plus, but in my

69:02mind are like not necessarily like physical. Like, if you're going to be like the 6'2 plus level corner, you need to

69:08be like really jamming hands on people. You need to be like Legereus Sneed at his best.

69:12And like, I kind of like Desaria Thomas coming out of college and like Brandon Stevens has had his moments, but they

69:18are not to me like bully you at the line of scrimmage guys.

69:22And so, I think if there's anything that's holding me back on this being like a pretty, like at least an average defense, it is the corners.

69:29Like, that scares me a lot. Just looking at the front, I'm like, that could be like the 11th best defense in the NFL.

69:36Like, if everything hits. The cornerback room is definitely the flaw in my grand design here.

69:40But even safety room too. I mean, like Dane Belton is, I'm not getting excited about that.

69:45Mink is pretty deep into his career. the entire secondary leaves me a little itchy.

69:49And that's not even what's keeping me up at night.

69:52I know that Glenn, Glenn did not have quite the same degree of hype and expectation as Ben Johnson.

69:57But it was very much this tandem of DNA changing coordinators that were so highly sought after.

70:01If Aaron Glenn is anything resembling that type of coach, it's enough that this shouldn't be an embarrassing defense.

70:06So that's what you're watching the first month of the season.

70:09As they reshape this defense in his image, what does this end up looking like?

70:14What are some of the other elements of that that you're keeping an eye on?

70:18Well, and I just think too, like, I think reshaping in his image, one, they now have Tavondre Sweat who is just

70:24a nose tackle, like one, you know, zero technique that they just did not have before.

70:28Last year, it was a lot of Harrison Phillips who at this stage in his career, I just do not think can

70:34hold up at that level, like at that spot.

70:36And so I think bringing in Tavondre Sweat, I think takes a little bit of, takes a little bit of the stress

70:42off of the linebackers, which I think could be really, really nice for them.

70:46They bring in DeMario Davis and we talked about Quincy Williams, I think being a nice signing now for Cleveland.

70:52He had worked with Mike Rutenberg before who was the linebacker coach a couple of years ago.

70:56Him and Aaron Glenn just clearly did not agree on how to play football.

71:00Like, I just don't think that he was the best fit for what they were trying to do.

71:05He's a very aggressive downhill player. DeMario Davis is a lot more like put together mentally.

71:09He's a leader for their defense. So I think him just potentially being able to get them in and out of different calls, I think helps.

71:16Like you just have so much more and with Minka back there too.

71:20Like he's a guy who I think is like pretty mentally aware.

71:23And so I think just getting those two guys in like helps them a lot in that front.

71:28DeMario Davis is a stabilizing factor. Even this deep into his career, I don't think can go understated.

71:33He also, he's still a tone setter. He was, there were plays in the preseason where it's like the second quarter and he's flying around like a madman.

71:41I'm like, you don't have to do this anymore.

71:43Even talking multiple coaches kind of unprompted brought DeMario Davis up to me that coached him in New Orleans and just talked

71:49about him as a leader and a locker room presence.

71:52Like generational all time type stuff about what he's doing for your locker room.

71:56And when you watch the Jets defense last year, they were lost.

71:59They were lost in the wilderness. And so having somebody like DeMario Davis come in and just be at the center of

72:05that thing, even if he's 70% of all pros DeMario Davis, I actually do think that has a chance to make a

72:11really big difference just in how buttoned up and professional this entire thing feels.

72:15I'll say this. I think that can happen. The fact that it needs to happen after you hired a defensive minded head coach probably isn't okay.

72:22Also, makes me re-sad that DeMario Davis is in a situation with a rebuild instead of putting a Super Bowl contender over

72:28the top, which is what I was hoping for back during free agency.

72:31But that's water way under the bridge at this point.

72:34If you're trying to shape your culture though and reshape it and pull it back from the abyss, I actually do think

72:40he is the type of guy that can give you your best shot at doing it.

72:44And the last thing I would say for reshaping this into kind of his image, David Bailey being his version of like

72:50Aiden Hutchinson where it's like in run defense it might not be the best thing but it is like off the edge,

72:56off the weak side, go get it. It's like, okay, I get why he wants that in his defense.

73:02And you have Osai and Enigbare to eat some of those snaps on early downs.

73:06They're good strong side defensive end guys, yeah. I like Kingsley Enigbare.

73:09He's good. Demario Davis was your guy if I wanted to see him on a contender.

73:13Mine was Kingsley Enigbare. He may play 30 snaps a game but I thought he could just be a good rotational piece on a good defense.

73:20He like won them one of the Bears games where he like punches out a ball at the end.

73:26I was like, he like won them that game.

73:28He's just a useful rotational player defense is fairly talented for how you view the Jets.

73:32They were like an all time bad defense in a lot of ways last year.

73:37Yes, I completely understand that. Dave, what are you watching the first month of the season with the Jets?

73:42I assume we'll know really quickly whether Gino has a little bit left in the tank or whether it's so over.

73:47I don't even want to talk about it. I know.

73:50It's terrifying. But there's some degree of infrastructure in place here for Gino to be successful.

73:55Like Derek already talked about the offensive line and the tackles make you feel really good.

73:59Garrett Wilson perennially underrated. Brees Hall is there. Yeah, like this looks it's better than I think you would give it credit

74:05for provided Gino is anything resembling Seattle Gino and not 37th in EPA per play like he was in Vegas last year.

74:11I don't want to step on it. I don't want to step on my what's keeping me up at night.

74:16It relates to this. Is it keeping you up at night waiting to find out if Gino has anything left?

74:22No, it's not that. It's not that. It's more about the systemic concerns.

74:25Frank Reich is calling plays. Correct. That part of it I think is extremely fair.

74:29My cope about Gino Smith and how he played last year and how he might play a little bit better this year.

74:35Geno Smith's biggest problem even when he was playing really well is he's going to hold on to the ball and he's

74:41probably going to get hit and take sacks. The Raiders offensive line last year and run game was as bad as it could possibly be.

74:48So not only are you in more third and sevens, third and eights and stuff, you just don't have a line that

74:54can ever hold up in those scenarios. I don't know if the Jets offensive line and run infrastructure is going to be

75:00elite, but if it can at least get back to average, it's like I think Gino Smith can play not embarrassing football

75:06the way that it looked last year. I'll just do this now.

75:09Okay. I, the infrastructure, the, the talents around him, especially up front, significantly better than what it was with the Raiders last

75:15year, even though Dylan Parham is one of the five offensive linemen, which I do find funny.

75:20Okay. It's significantly better. And then if Jonathan, if Chris Myers were, or Chris Myers, who was the center for the Jets?

75:26Josh Myers. Josh Myers. Chris Myers was the Texans center in like 2011.

75:30If you just want to look that up, Katie.

75:32So if Chris Myers gets hurt, Jordan Meredith is now the backup center of the trade over Jordan Meredith.

75:37So now we'd get 40% of the Gino last year.

75:40Way too many familiar faces. I can't believe you're doing this to me.

75:43The talent is undeniably better. Here is my concern with the Frank Gregg stuff.

75:47This is not about, oh man, like he didn't do a great job and that's why I have all these issues.

75:53Over the last five years in the NFL, there have been 13 offenses that have had 90, negative 90 passing EPA or worse.

75:5913 over the last five years. So you essentially get two and a half a year.

76:04Two of those were coached by Frank Gregg. Of the 13 in the last five years.

76:08So it's the Matt Ryan year and then the Matt Ryan year and the Bryce Young year.

76:13Okay. And if you were trying to explain that away, if you're a Jets fan, I understand this.

76:18All right. Well, the Panthers offensive line wasn't very good in 2023.

76:21Their interior was bad, but you had a key quantum to remote at the tackles.

76:25And you had a small quarterback. Fine. Right. Like the interior of the line wasn't great.

76:29Small quarterback. It's a rookie. Maybe explain that away a little bit.

76:33In 22. Yes. You have a statuesque Matt Ryan back there.

76:36The offensive line for the 2022 Indianapolis Colts was the same as it was for the 2023 Indianapolis Colts when they were

76:41one of the best seven offensive lines in the league.

76:44What's the control factor here? We've seen his last two times as the offensive play car.

76:49The offense is bottom out to a degree that we do not often see in the NFL.

76:53Very similar, by the way, to the 2025 Raiders.

76:56And that is my concern here is that even with better players, we see systemic things like this where the entire bottom

77:02falls out of it and he's done it twice in his last two times as a play car.

77:07That is my concern. I'm open to it being better with better players.

77:10A hundred percent. But it is keeping me up at night that it absolutely might not be.

77:15That's why this is just something I'm watching in the first month of the season.

77:19I did not say I was excited because I just I'm guessing by week three or week four, we'll be like, Gino, OK, looking looking good.

77:26Or we'll be like, OK, we can we can close the book on this matter and we can close the book on Gino.

77:32We don't have to write back this time. I just don't think we properly appreciate how impossible it is to not drown

77:38in the quicksand when you're a part of one of these offenses.

77:41And these offenses come every single year. When you're watching them, when you're living it, I lived it with the 2024 Bears.

77:47It's awful. And there's just no getting away from it, even if you've got some decent players on the team.

77:53And that's another really good example. A lot of the players, I mean, they obviously improved several spots along the offensive line,

77:59but the systemic concerns were way beyond what individual talent you had on the roster.

78:03I'm glad you brought up the 2024 Bears, because if I was trying to cope, Gino was passable in Seattle with Shane

78:09Waldron as his offensive coordinator and also with Ryan Grubb, who lasted one year in Seattle.

78:13That was another team that was starting to crumble from the inside out, though.

78:17Mm hmm. It was a 2024 Seahawks completely. But you would take even the 2024 version of Gino in a heartbeat over

78:23what Gino was in Vegas last year. A hundred percent.

78:26Like, yeah, that he was he was normal that not holy shit.

78:29How is this an NFL team bad? And if that's what we get out of Gino in the Jets this year, that would be a good thing.

78:36The 13 seasons of negative 90 EPA. The Jets have two of them.

78:40Yeah. Last year of Joe Judge. Last year of Bill Belichick.

78:43Last year of Lovie Smith. Last year's Titans. Are six of the other ones.

78:47That is brutal. That's it is. We are at the end type stuff.

78:50And that has been Frank Reich's last two stops as an offensive play car.

78:54And I will say, like, the Panthers one I do give him credit for.

78:58I've made, you know, my opinions on Bryce Young, especially as a rookie.

79:02He was like unplayable. And then the offensive line, I think, was a disaster that year.

79:06The Colts one is the one that scares me.

79:08And really more analogous to this situation. Yeah. Where it's a relatively talented offensive line.

79:12You have a quarterback who's last year or two of his career, probably, or at least towards the end.

79:18And pretty statuesque. But Gino's not going to move.

79:20Matt Ryan was not going to move at that stage in his career.

79:24And their arms have gone a little bit. Matt Ryan did not have the same arm in, you know, 22 that he

79:30did three or four years before that. And neither does Gino right now compared to, like, 23.

79:34Gino, what Gino showed in the preseason, there's enough there for me to think it could be okay.

79:39The arm is totally fine. It's in 22 and 23.

79:42It was flying out of there. It was ripping it.

79:45Yeah. So it is a little bit different. I think that's right.

79:48But to me, it's again, it's more about the systemic things.

79:51And we, I didn't mean to step on what I'm, what's keeping me up.

79:55And that is what is keeping me up at night.

79:57What I'm watching the first month of the season, just how the young pass catchers come together.

80:02Mason Taylor year two, like what does the multi-tight end stuff look like?

80:06Garrett Wilson just being in a relatively normal offensive situation, maybe for the first time in a very long time, which it might not be.

80:12We just spent five minutes talking about it, but it might not be.

80:16Garrett Wilson has never had a normal NFL season.

80:18No. Garrett Wilson is very good. He has never been in a normal NFL offense.

80:22High on the list of NFL players. I really empathize with as much as you can empathize with a guy who's got millions and millions of guaranteed money.

80:30Tens of millions, but yes. Of guaranteed money in the bank.

80:33I mean, is 40 year old Aaron Rodgers the best quarterback who's ever thrown him a pass?

80:38By far. Yeah. It's him more like Joe Flacco, I think.

80:41So 40 year old Aaron Rodgers is the best extended quarterback play that Garrett Wilson has ever had in his entire NFL career.

80:47And did you enjoy watching 40 year old Aaron Rodgers?

80:50That Jets team was even worse than what the Steelers teams are right now.

80:53So I really would love this just to be a baseline level of normal for both Geno's sake and for Garrett Wilson's sake.

81:00And then we'll see what we get from the other guys.

81:03Like I know it's been kind of a strange summer for Omar Cooper and he's been kind of falling in and out

81:09of how much they're going to use him and rely on him.

81:12But I think he can be a useful player in the NFL.

81:15And so that entire group of young pass catchers, just what do we get out of them?

81:20What does the deployment look like? Did I not unfold?

81:23You might have said it. Did you not say your guy's name?

81:26Oh, and A.D. Mitchell, of course. Obviously we have like when A.D.

81:29Mitchell is the number two receiver. Of course, that was a big part of this.

81:33So there's a lot of guys where I'm like, all right, I want to see how this goes.

81:38I get I have reservations, but I want to see how this goes.

81:42Derek, what is keeping you up at night about the 2026 New York Jets?

81:46I'm just a little bit worried that this staff feel like dead men walking a little bit.

81:50And it just because like I really loved the hiring of Aaron Glenn when they did it, because like Dave said, like

81:56I don't think anyone thought he was quite as good or important to the line success as Ben Johnson, but he was an awesome defensive coordinator there.

82:04And I just thought that he would be able to bring some of that here.

82:08And not only was that like the defensive structure not there last year, but the entire team's like culture and it just

82:14feel like they were just not put together as an NFL football team.

82:17So I'm a little bit worried on that front.

82:20And then they just when a team is embarrassing on one side of the ball and non-functional on the other side of

82:26the ball and fires its entire staff in the first offseason.

82:29Are you worried about the overall trajectory of that franchise?

82:31And again, because this will probably be the last time we can mention it, a team who their head coach was a

82:37DB himself, a DB's coach, and then a defensive coordinator could not get an interception.

82:41That's a little bit freaky to me. And again, that's partly a talent issue, but even some of the worst defenses ever

82:47are going to get a couple of those. And so that worries me.

82:51And then again, it's not like the staff that they rehired this off-season cycle gets me like super excited.

82:56It's guys like Frank Reich where it's like, it's been five years since they've probably called a good offense.

83:01And so I'm just a little bit worried that this is just not going to really go anywhere.

83:06It'll probably rise to the talent of the guys they signed on defense, which makes them a little bit better.

83:12But I'm just worried whether or not this is a staff that can make this roster better than it looks right now.

83:18That's exactly right, Land. Just the staff might not just might not be it.

83:21I talked about the Frank Reich stuff and then the defense last year, dead last in EPA per drop back last season.

83:27Dead last. Part of that is the turnovers. The fact that they didn't create any, but they were still bottom eight in success rate.

83:34And that takes the turnovers into account. The corner room is concerning.

83:37Wright and D'Angelo Ponds missed most of camp. Jarvis Brownlee is going to be their starting nickel because Ponds hasn't practiced.

83:43Like I just, I don't know how good I feel about this defensive staff's ability to get the most out of that

83:49secondary after the way that last year went. And I said everything I need to say about the offensive staff.

83:54Dave, what is keeping you up at night about the 2026 New York Jets?

83:58This is going to sound like I'm writing off the 2026 team and I can live with that, whatever.

84:03So much of your optimism as a Jets fan is based around having three more first round picks to use in the upcoming draft.

84:10And what keeps me awake at night is it never works out as cleanly as you want it to when you think you have a hall like this.

84:18Like they just picked number two in the draft in a year where you, that doesn't give you a path toward a quarterback.

84:24What are the odds that they're actually shitty enough to finish with the first or second overall pick or the odds that

84:30the quarterback class is as sexy as we want it to be?

84:33What are the odds that the Colts Packers and Cowboys are as bad as you want them to be?

84:38I mean, they had three picks in this past draft and they pick, I mean, they had two, which was non, it was a one quarterback draft.

84:46And then they picked 16th and 30th or whatever it was like the Cowboys are trendy contender picks.

84:50The Packers are usually a good team. And we saw what the Colts looked like when Daniel Jones was healthy.

84:56I would feel so bad for Jets fans if they crawl through this river of shit and at the end of it,

85:02they're picking like 8th, 19th and 24th. Because as fun as it is to make three first round picks like that's not

85:08good enough if you're trying to completely revamp this franchise and draft a quarterback of the future and all that good stuff.

85:14And because we always say, well, we can, you can use all that capital to trade up for a quarterback.

85:19Not if there's only one or two. And in the, like in the 2024 class where it was Drake May and Jane

85:25Daniels and Caleb Williams, nobody was moving off those picks because the guys are good enough to not want to move off of those picks.

85:32I'm just going to say right now. I think they might be bad enough where they'll be in position to draft a quarterback.

85:38Sitting here right now, I think you're probably right.

85:41But like if Geno can tap into it one more time, like all it would take is to go five and 12

85:47and you might be up shit Creek. And I know that sounds very doom or gloom, but that could be true.

85:53If let's say, let's say it's a two quarterback class picking fifth isn't going to be good enough.

85:58It's just not. And I like, you have to hope that there are four or five quarterbacks.

86:02And there is, there is a world where that can happen.

86:05Of course. That is, I was talking to somebody in the front office over the last month or so.

86:10And then they were just saying that there's no way for us to know this now, but this could absolutely be a

86:16quarterback class where there are five or six guys similar to what it looked like in the Caleb Williams Bowdoin extract.

86:22Like that's, that is very possible. It's part of the hope and it's part of what I think makes for a successful season for the Jets.

86:29So let's dig into that. What is a successful season for the 2026 Jets?

86:33I think it's a tough needle to thread for this team to be successful while also feeling good for 2027.

86:38But I think you could do it. My definition of success has nothing to do with wins and losses for the Jets.

86:44This would be the case for both of the next two teams.

86:48Here are, here are my bullet points. Aaron Glenn shows you why he was a desirable coaching candidate.

86:53David Bailey looks like the number two overall pick and it's a huge quarterback draft class and Arch and Dante Moore and

86:59Lenore Sellers and whoever the hell else you want to name, like all of them are good.

87:03And you go into 2027 feeling like you'll have a chance at a quarterback.

87:07I don't think the Aaron Glenn part matters. Sure.

87:09For success, if you are the New York Jets franchise, the young guys look good.

87:14You have an indisputable core of young pieces heading into next year, no matter who the coach and quarterback are.

87:19Yeah, I guess. If you're really drilling down on it, like.

87:22Aaron Glenn being there is immaterial to like the long term outlook, but.

87:26And I guess it depends on who would even be available, but if I'm trying to look at it in the lens

87:31of feeling good about this year's team. It would be nice if you felt like you had a difference maker on that side of the football.

87:39I think you need the young players to look really good and promising.

87:42And if that amounts to Aaron Glenn turns things around such that you do feel good about him, that is a great cherry.

87:48To me, that's a downstream effect. Right, exactly. That is not a necessary component.

87:52Yeah, that's fair. If you're a Jets fan and Aaron Glenn does not prove to be it, but David Bailey looks like

87:58a monster and you get like four or five incredible splash plays out of Sadiq and the tackles look great and you

88:04have like all these young guys chipping in, I would still feel like that's a success.

88:09Yeah, you're right. To me, it is all about the players.

88:12It's all about the players. Yeah, I think that's right.

88:14Although Aaron Glenn being good at his job would probably go a long way toward making those guys.

88:19That's the sticking point is how good can the players look if the staff is bad enough where you're automatically moving on from them halfway into the season.

88:27I do overall agree, though. Like if I was a Jets fan, David Bailey, the offensive tackles and Garrett Wilson are like my primary concerns.

88:34Like let's let's really let's get the most out of those guys and let's have Garrett Wilson be I'd like one of

88:40Sadiq or Cooper to flash before the end of the season.

88:43I'd like one of those two guys to show me something.

88:46Or even Pond's. I think at least one of those other top 50 ish picks has to do something.

88:51Oh, and also. I mean, this is pie in the sky, but screw it like root against the Colts, Cowboys and Packers too.

88:57Let's get those. Let's go. Let's get those picks up.

89:00The Colts are a bottom out team in a way that I think is underrated.

89:04So a big we'll get to that division at some point, but I agree.

89:08I don't I don't necessarily bet on it, but among those three teams like there could absolutely be picking.

89:13There's always one or two teams that just like, oh shit.

89:16I didn't think they were going to be. I mean, the Cardinals last year, nobody thought they were going to be that bad.

89:22And then they were that bad. Yeah. Let's get to the Miami Dolphins.

89:26Our preview for the 2026 Miami Dolphins. They're off season in 60 seconds.

89:29Hire Jeff Halfley as their head coach. John Eric Sullivan is the GM.

89:33Bobby Slocke and is the offensive coordinator. Signed Malik Willis, Greg Dolchich, Cleland Farrell, and a bunch of other guys for about a million dollars.

89:40Traded Jalen Waddle for a first round pick and other day three draft capital.

89:43Cut Bradley Chubb, Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa, Alec Ingle, Julian Hill, and Cole Strange all move on.

89:48In the draft, they made 10,000 picks. Caden Proctor, Chris Johnson, Jacob Rodriguez, Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Will Kazmerich, Kyle Lewis.

89:54What are you most excited about with the 2026 Miami Dolphins, David?

89:57David. This could be the peak of offseason cope, and I know that Bobby Sloick is calling the offense in Miami, so

90:03we'll see how that goes, but I'm pretty excited to watch this run game specifically when you consider the pieces on the offensive line.

90:10Devon HN got his extension quietly, like not only explosive, but very efficient considering what the Dolphins were as an offense last year.

90:16And Malik Willis, obviously, at the very worst, and not to say that he can't add anything as a passer, but you

90:22know for sure he can add an explosive element to your run game.

90:25So with a very mobile quarterback who rushed for a first down 37% of the time over his last two years playing,

90:31which admittedly not a huge sample size, but a good bit more mobile than Tua?

90:35Just for starters? Yeah. I'd say so. Yeah, I think you could say that.

90:39A quarterback like Malik Willis, a running back like Devon HN, super excited about Patrick Paul, Caden Proctor playing between him and Aaron Brewer.

90:46The offensive line in general, I just think has exciting potential.

90:49This might blow up in my face, but in August, I'm excited to see what this looks like.

90:54It's just an offense that has a chance to be very unique, and it was unique in different ways under Mike McDaniel.

91:00But I think having... I just love this framing.

91:02It'll be unique. It'll be unique. This reminds me, actually, it fitting because it's the AFC East.

91:07It reminds me of us talking ourselves into what the Jets could do with Justin Fields last year.

91:12It's the exact same thing. They're going to have so much fun with it.

91:15The difference is, at least, Justin Fields was never really a good passer in, like, any extended sample in the NFL.

91:21And not that Malik Willis has an extended sample.

91:24I was going to say, you call it an extended sample?

91:27It's not extended. It's only, like, 60-some-odd dropbacks. But at least on those dropbacks, he's, like, by far the most productive quarterback in the NFL.

91:33And obviously, that's, you know, playing on a Packers team that's really well-constructed.

91:37It was very specific game plans in, like... I think when you're pinch-hitting as a quarterback, you can get away with stuff

91:43in a one- or two-game sample that you're not going to get away with in a 17-game sample, which we'll talk about that later.

91:49But at least when he was doing that, it was electric.

91:52And you can at least give him some amount of praise there.

91:56And then on top of Devon Achan, who, like...

91:58I think it's underrated how... I think we watch him in the McDaniel offense, and you see all the just runway stuff

92:04that he's doing on the outside, and it's like, oh, he's incredible.

92:07He is, as a down-to-down running back, like, as good as anybody in the league.

92:12Awesome player. He is phenomenal. Awesome player. Even going back and re-watching the preseason stuff and what they were doing, like, him

92:18as a between-the-tackles runner, he's so underrated. He's such a good player.

92:21That's my answer by far. It's just Devon Achan behind this offensive line.

92:24You got 320 at left tackle, 360 at left guard, an all-pro at center, 325 at right guard, and then whatever Austin Jackson is.

92:31I didn't look it up because it wasn't important.

92:33But the other four parts, 7A in year two, it's a lot of beef and a very little fast man behind it.

92:39I'm excited to see what that looks like. I want to believe that six weeks into the season, all of us football

92:45geeks will be like, yeah, I know their record's not good, but are you watching the Dolphins run the ball?

92:51This is electric stuff. If you are an oddity, I want to tune into.

92:55Absolutely. That, like, and I think they honestly, like, they can be.

92:58Like, the receivers I have a lot more questions about and we'll get there, but like, if I'm just looking at quarterback,

93:04running back, and the offensive line, I'm like, that's kind of enough to be, like, an interesting offense.

93:09Dave's point about the Jets is the perfect thing to bring up, though.

93:12We were having this exact same conversation about the Jets last year.

93:16The reality is often nowhere near as fun, but like I said, it's August.

93:19What are you watching the first month of the season with the Miami Dolphins, Derek?

93:23I mean, just like Bobby Slowick 2.0. And I know that obviously what he was, especially at the end in Houston, was it was kind of vanilla.

93:31It was a lot of just like play the hits sort of Shanahan stuff in the run game in particular, never really got off the ground.

93:38I'm wondering how much of him being on this staff last year and like not only just getting to see some of

93:44the Mike McDaniels stuff a little bit more up close, but it's like with these exact players for the most part.

93:50And like obviously they lose Alec Engle. It's not necessarily one for one, but the offensive line is mostly the same guy.

93:56And there's a fullback on this team and they kept a fullback on their 53.

94:00And so like I'm just curious, like how much has he taken from the failings that he had in Houston, then seeing

94:06one of the best run game designers in the NFL get to do this on this exact team?

94:11How much of that can he really put together and drive things forward?

94:14So I think I'm just really I don't even know necessarily what I think it's going to look like I don't know

94:20how much of it is it going to go back a little bit more to the stock standard Shanahan stuff?

94:26Is he going to do a lot more of the weird stuff?

94:29Because like by the end of last year, like the second half, the Dolphins run game was like like a wildcat like T formation.

94:35Like they were just doing like weird, weird stuff.

94:38It was like a wing T offense. I almost kind of think you can do some of that with Malik Willis and

94:44actually let him do some more of the running.

94:46Like I wonder how much of that they continue to hold in the offense.

94:50I think the problem is when you you have to come to that in the back half of the season.

94:56When you have the guy that is at the center of all of that, it's different than I sat and watched that guy for eight weeks.

95:03Yeah. And so I wonder how much of that you can even glean.

95:06But I am very curious about the slow 2.0 thing.

95:09That's exactly where I landed with it as well.

95:11For all the excitement we potentially have about the running game since 2021.

95:15Okay. So we have 160 NFL seasons since 2021.

95:17The Houston Texans in two years under Bobby Sloick finished 150th and 152nd in those 160 seasons and success rate per next gen.

95:24They're really, really, really bad run games. The offensive line talent is undeniably better here by a long shot.

95:29Even if you go back like two years, the two previous years before you even got there, those Texans teams are like in the bottom 15th.

95:36The Texans have been such a bad running team for so long.

95:39It's actually kind of crazy. But Bobby Sloick I think did play, have a hand in that.

95:44So what does the run game look like? Because I do think that you look at the numbers, just how much zone

95:50running the Texans were doing back then, where Bobby Sloick comes from, even what the Dolphins were doing last year.

95:55You'd assume there'd be a decent amount of that because some big boys there.

95:59I mean, if they want and they were doing some more pull stuff and gap scheme runs in the preseason.

96:04And so how much of that do we see?

96:07How much variety in the run game do we see?

96:10And the other part of it that I expect them to lean into more.

96:13They use a ton of multi-tight end stuff in the preseason.

96:16I think we'll keep seeing that the name, name of which you probably know this, the Broncos, that's how they took in the Justin Jolie.

96:23Justin Jolie. He's a Dolphin now. So they picked him up in as a waiver claim.

96:28So they'll have him, Kazmeric, Dolchich, and they use a bunch of two tight end sets in the preseason.

96:33And they use a lot of fullback stuff in the preseason.

96:36In 2023, the Texans were, the Texans had a fullback on the field for 25% of their plays in 2023.

96:41That season, CJ Stroud led the NFL in the percentage of his dropbacks that came against base defense.

96:46And that was a very successful passing game compared to what you would expect.

96:50The Texans were ninth in 2024 in the same metric.

96:53It was about an eight percentage point drop when they stopped using a fullback quite as often.

96:57And so can you diversify the run game a little bit with this offensive line?

97:01Can you play on your terms of getting heavier bodies on the field and simplifying things for your quarterback and tap into

97:07some of the things that were good about the Bobby Sloan experience in Houston and then try to improve at some of

97:13the things that were poor in part because of your offensive line personnel.

97:17Will Kazmeric would be high on my list of names to know if you're looking for that Jackson Hawes sort of guy

97:23who even as a rookie is just mauling people as an extra tight end.

97:27That's a for being a, you know, a third round pick on a team that doesn't have high expectations.

97:32I think that's, that's an interesting name. He's going to play.

97:35Yeah, he is. He's going to play a decent amount in part because your other tight end is Greg Dolchich, who for

97:41all, for any excitement you could have about Greg Dolchich as a pass catcher.

97:45I'm not sure he's moving defensive ends by himself.

97:47No. Well, and like God knows what at receiver.

97:50So it's like you might as well start putting the tight ends on the field.

97:54Dave, what are you watching the first month of the season with the Dolphins?

97:58Malik Willis has thrown 89 passes the last two years.

98:00He's probably going to throw more than that in the first month of this season alone.

98:05I just, what, what, what is this guy? I loved what he did in Green Bay.

98:09One of my favorite player development stories of the last few years is the Packers getting him for a flyer two years ago, was it?

98:16Or three? Whatever. 20, 2023 season, right? I think it was after the 2024 season.

98:20Into the 24 season. Because 2023 was the year where him, he played.

98:23Him and Levis. Yeah. Played a couple games. It's such a cool story.

98:27And obviously he got a life-changing amount of money over it.

98:30But now we just see what, what this is.

98:32And it's not an ideal circumstance, but as we've just laid out, I think it's, it's better than, than you would probably

98:38give it credit for on the surface. And so what can he do with it?

98:42What does he look like? What are, who are the Dolphins primary pass catchers?

98:46How much can this running game health help him?

98:49I mean, who, who's Malik Willis other than a surprisingly pleasant backup quarterback?

98:52That's what we know him as to this point.

98:55And so I don't think it has to be more complicated than that.

98:58I think a lot of people were excited about him potentially getting an opportunity after the way that he played in spot duty last year.

99:05So let's stay excited for the opportunity because he is getting it even if it's in less than ideal circumstances.

99:11Not hopeless though. Like, yeah, not a hopeless. I mean, it's, it's, it's tough, man.

99:15I mean, when you, even if the running game is good, the idea that you're going to be thrown into a combination

99:21of Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas, maybe Chris Bell, even if you have hope about what Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell can eventually become.

99:27And Caleb Douglas had a couple of nights moments in the preseason.

99:31Chris Bell is much more talented in the third round prospect and should be back sooner rather than later.

99:36We're still talking about rookie receivers. Yeah. Like your two most important outside pass catchers.

99:40I think even by the end of this season, let alone the long-term outlook of the franchise, are rookie day three picks.

99:46Maybe not hopeless, but certainly not good. But that's what the money's for.

99:49And I at least like, in a majority of cases, the offenses and situations that really feel like they crumble and just

99:55give a guy no shot, it's the offensive line.

99:58Like it's truly one of the worst in the league.

100:01I don't think that Miami's going to get there.

100:03I think that they're talented enough that that's not where they should arrive.

100:07And so they'll at least keep him upright enough whether or not keeping him upright so he can throw to Malik Washington does anything, probably not.

100:14But at least I think he's not going to get just like battle scars by Halloween.

100:18The only devil's advocate thing I would say to that is that we talk about crumbling infrastructures.

100:23That was the Texans problem in 24. Offensive line talent was a part of this.

100:27They were getting picked on by all of these teams just manipulating them in pass protection over and over and over again.

100:33The game I think about, the game I still go back to, it's not even the playoff game where they were getting destroyed.

100:39That Packers game that season where Jeff Halfley just ate his lunch over the course of four quarters and they were throwing

100:45every weird pressure and simulated and everything in the everything under the sun at them and they had no answer for it.

100:51That would be the other part of slow look 2.0.

100:54Like, have you learned a little bit about yourself and what your plan there has to look like to prevent people from picking on you?

101:01Because this is, it keeps, I keep going back to this idea of when you are in a situation like that and

101:07those are the systemic concerns, the talent matters less because you feel it less.

101:10And so even if the players are better, how much do you feel the individual talent across the offensive line if the situation is bad?

101:17And I think the situation needs to be better even if the players are from what we saw the last time Bobby Sloak was an offensive coordinator.

101:25I mean, it's a good point because like, again, I'm willing to leave the door open that Sloak is better, but we

101:31know for a fact that Mike McDaniel made this offensive line better than it was.

101:35And so maybe the different, maybe the dearth, like the how big that gap is between those two is bigger than I'm giving credit for.

101:41What is keeping you up at night about the 2026 Miami Dolphins?

101:45David? Did our GM cook? Or are we going to be looking back on this draft class as a lot of disappointing players?

101:51It's very similar to the Jets where all I want is to be excited about some young guys.

101:56And they're not all guys that John Eric Sullivan drafted.

101:59Like you want to see Patrick Paul continue to ascend Jonas Evania.

102:02If Kenneth Grant had a big season, how exciting already on IR.

102:05Oh, holy shit. I missed that for like for the year or did the short term?

102:10He was not on this. He's not on the starting.

102:12He's not on the depth chart opening season on injury reserve.

102:15IR return. He will miss the first four games of the season at least, which is brutal.

102:20That is already a blow against my hopes. But you made 13 draft picks.

102:24If I feel good about, I don't know, four of those guys, is that setting the bar too high?

102:29Considering how young this team is. I think it depends on what good means.

102:33Like, how good can you feel about Kazmarek? But like if he plays a role for an offense, if he's what you

102:39want him to be in that role, if one of the two receivers flashes a little bit, if Proctor looks good, like

102:45I think if four to five of those guys feel like contributing pieces by the end of it, you would feel really good about this draft class.

102:52Proctor, Johnson, Jacob Rodriguez, Caleb Douglas, Kazmarek, Chris Bell.

102:54Yeah. If most of those guys look like players, and I feel like John Eric Sullivan really crushed this draft class, that's

103:00my hope, and that's what's keeping me awake at night because I've done this long enough to know for every time we

103:06get excited about these huge draft class classes. I mean, we just talked about the Patriots and how only one guy from

103:122024 is even on the team anymore. It's rare when a big draft class like this ages super well.

103:18Ask Washington. Another great example. It can change the fortunes of your franchise if you do it, and that's why I would

103:24be losing sleep, is like are we about to reboot this team with an insanely good foundation, or is this going to look stupid in two years?

103:31I mean, I think for me it's, and maybe I'm thinking too much because like this year doesn't really matter in terms

103:37of results, but like the secondary is heinous. The secondary is an indication of the overall roster quality.

103:42Right, exactly. That's just the area where I think it's most apparent.

103:45Yes, I think the whole roster obviously has a lot of issues, but you do see it the most in the secondary.

103:51Like they're starting five right now. Juju Brents at corner who flamed out in Indianapolis after starting a little bit as a rookie.

103:57Jason Marshall, who was a fifth round pick for this team last year.

104:01Dante Trader, who was also a fifth round pick for this team last year.

104:05Zane Anderson at safety, who has played 145 snaps in five NFL seasons, most of them with the Packers in 2024.

104:10And then Chris Johnson, who is your first round pick.

104:13And it's obviously first round pick, but still a rookie.

104:16And you're never entirely sure what you're going to get out of that guy.

104:20And I think Johnson played a lot outside in college.

104:22And also he's a rookie, as you just laid out, playing in a secondary.

104:26With no help. No help. Yeah. So that's not great.

104:29Mine just extends to that thought process about the entire team.

104:32It is one of the thinnest NFL rosters I can remember staring at on August 31st.

104:36And we knew that was going to happen. I was comparing them to a team I want to talk about a little

104:42bit when we talk about what success looks like.

104:45And the team that I had in mind, they were paying about 35% of the cap in dead money in year one of a reset.

104:52The Dolphins have $196 million in dead money. I mean, that's what, half?

104:5560%. It's insane. I mean, it's just insane. You can't build an NFL roster this way.

105:00And they know that. They knew that they were going to have to take a disgusting stomach-churning amount of medicine this year.

105:06And that's exactly what's happening. But when you look at it, man, holy shit.

105:09Like, the secondary is a good indication of it.

105:12To me, do you know who's currently slated? And that this, our ads, whatever the depth charts are, we don't have a

105:18Dolphins B-rider, and so I did not check the current update on the 53 like I could for a lot of other teams.

105:24Do you know who is currently slated to be the edge rusher opposite Chop Robinson on the Dolphins depth chart right now?

105:30Josh Uche? Josh Uche. And that's, I was going to say him or Robert Beal, I know, is on this roster.

105:36And that's the other small thing, too. Like, this, this is where I think the season can get, like, emotionally demoralizing for them.

105:42I'm sorry if that's, like, way too dark. Their edge players are all, like, 250.

105:46And if you're a bad team and you're just getting slammed in the run game, it's hard to live.

105:51It's hard to live. And that's my concern, is that it's so bad that it's just demoralizing over the course of the year.

105:58But you'd hope that you can have some flashes by the offense and that can be enough.

106:02But they're, they're in a really, really tough spot just with the roster they could practically put on the field given the

106:08way that this team was built over the last few years.

106:11They spent an insane amount of money to kick the can down the road financially.

106:15And they didn't make any draft picks. The Dolphins didn't make any picks for the last, like, five years.

106:20They made fewer picks than any team in the league.

106:23If you look back at, like, the last several draft classes, in 2022, the Dolphins made zero top 100 picks.

106:29They made two picks in the first four rounds.

106:31In 2023, the Dolphins made two top 100 picks and two picks in the first six rounds.

106:36In 2024, you get Chopper Robinson, Patrick Paul, and then Jalen Wright in the fourth round.

106:40But again, only two top 100 picks. And then last year, you get Kenneth Grant and Jonah Savanee.

106:45Kenneth Grant already not playing. Like, there just weren't any picks high in the draft over the last several years.

106:50And all of them, essentially all of the mid-round swings did not work out.

106:54So there just aren't any players on this team.

106:57On top of the fact that they have $200 million in dead money.

107:00I'm going to remember the Dolphins as an example of the argument people make, which there's validity to it.

107:05The cap's not real in the sense that it'll never stop you from doing something you want to do.

107:11The cap will absolutely f*** you. And that's what the Dolphins are dealing with.

107:14You've got to pay the bill for a year at least.

107:17And for them, they're paying it kind of for two years, like a year and a half, because next year, Tua is

107:23still on the books for about $50 million. But even with that, they'll have $100 million in space.

107:28The consequences of your actions will come up eventually.

107:31And yeah. You can just clear it out quickly.

107:33That's the thing. That's why it's worth it. To be clear, it is worth it.

107:37There can still be big-time consequences, even if they're just one-year consequences.

107:41But this is what your roster can look like when those decisions don't age well.

107:45So what is success for the 2021 Miami Dolphins, 2026 Miami Dolphins?

107:48It's actually a very telling Freudian slip. Be the 2021 Lions.

107:51Yeah. Where the young players look good and you have some give a s*** to you.

107:55You have the line. The line is where you can rest a lot of your faith, a lot of your enthusiasm.

108:01Here are some players on the Detroit Lions that played more than 500 snaps in 2021.

108:05This is going to be good. Jerry Jacobs, AJ Parker, Jalen Reeves-Maben, Nick Williams, Dean Marlowe, Charles Harris, Tracy Walker III, Armani Oroirier.

108:12Mizzou legend Charles Harris. He bounced through. He's one of those players that bounced around for longer than you think, by the way.

108:18And played okay near the end of his career, but still.

108:21And Charles Harris, by the way, had 52 pressures on that team.

108:24No one else had more than 21. Mm-hmm. That's the Chop Robinson.

108:27Yes. Let's take this a step further. Chop Robinson is your Charles Harris, except he's an in-house young player that you can really get excited about.

108:34But we have seen horrendous roster situations in the NFL where you can be at least a little bit enthusiastic about it by the end.

108:41If you're playing hard, you're getting the most out of the talent.

108:45And here's the other comparison. Who was the number one receiver on the 2021 Detroit Lions?

108:49He's a fourth-round rookie around Ross St. Brown. Yeah, by the end.

108:52And he did most of that in like the last eight weeks.

108:55If Chris Bell or Caleb Douglas, if you have that sort of guy because they have the opportunity, be the 2021 Lions.

109:01That is success if you're the Dolphins. Be 80% of that.

109:04I said. They won three games. Play passable football while getting an exciting year from a lot of your young players.

109:10And it would be a bonus if Jeff Halfley gives you some degree of confidence that he's a dude.

109:15That's the 2021 Lions. If it's not a dead three wins and it's a you made teams earn it as much as

109:21they possibly had to sort of three wins, I think that you can live with how that looks.

109:26And that's how the Lions were that year. Yeah.

109:29They were making teams earn it even if they only won three games.

109:32That's what I said with it. All right. That is all we've got for the Dolphins and all we've got for the AFC East.

109:39We'll be back tomorrow with our next division. Until then, appreciate you guys listening.

109:43We'll talk to you soon. Thanks for tuning in.

109:45Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.

109:49If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating.

109:53We'll see you next time.

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