2026 NFC North preview

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 55 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Sep 3, 2026

Published

Thu, September 3, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Jordan LoveTucker KraftChristian WatsonJosh JacobsAmon-Ra St. BrownCaleb WilliamsColston LovelandJahmyr GibbsJameson WilliamsJared GoffLuther BurdenMatthew GoldenSam LaPorta

Player analysis

Player insights

Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveProjection4:27

Amon-Ra St. Brown remains a highly consistent and elite fantasy asset, with the source noting his impressive three-year production trend: 119 catches/1515 yards/10 TDs, 115 catches/1200 yards/12 TDs, and 117 catches/1400 yards/11 TDs. He is considered a cornerstone of the Lions' explosive offense.

Insight page

Caleb Williams

PositiveProjection63:25

The source highlights Caleb Williams' impressive performance in his first playoff game against the Packers, noting his ability to throw deep and win, and emphasizes his monstrous ceiling in the Bears' offense.

Insight page

Christian Watson

PositiveBreakout39:41

Despite durability concerns, Watson was a top-20 receiver in the second half of last season; he ranked 2nd in explosive catch percentage, led in air yards per catch, and was 5th in yards per route run. His 19% target share suggests significant upside if his volume increases.

Insight page

PositiveBreakout63:41

Despite durability concerns, Christian Watson is highlighted as a potential top-20 receiver. The source notes that during the second half of last season, following his return from an ACL injury, his performance was elite.

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Colston Loveland

PositiveBreakout64:16

Colson Loveland is identified as a top-five tight end who is the centerpiece of the Bears' passing game; he ranked second in EPA per target among tight ends last season and is compared to Brock Bowers in deployment.

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Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveUsage7:09

The source highlights that Jahmyr Gibbs is in line for a massive workload increase with zero competition for touches, as the other running backs on the roster have only 12 career touches combined. Dan Campbell has referred to him as a 'bell cow,' and the team is expected to utilize him more in the slot to increase his production, potentially mirroring the usage of Bijan Robinson or Christian McCaffrey. The source projects he could have an Offensive Player of the Year type season if he reaches a 68-75% touch share.

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Jameson Williams

PositiveBreakout3:36

Jameson Williams is highlighted as a player who took a significant step forward last season, though it went somewhat under the radar due to the team's overall offensive inconsistency. He is viewed as a key part of the Lions' explosive offensive core.

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Jared Goff

PositiveProjection51:57

Jared Goff has become a vital stabilizing force for the Lions' offense. His intellectual partnership with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and his ability to consistently operate at a top-10 level make him a perfect quarterback to unlock the team's offensive talent.

Insight page

Jordan Love

PositiveProjection55:38

Despite concerns about the offensive line and supporting cast, Love is statistically a top-five or six quarterback in the league since becoming a starter.

Insight page

NegativeProjection58:23

The source discusses the risk that Jordan Love could be blamed for broader team infrastructure issues if the Packers struggle, though they maintain that Love is a talented quarterback.

Insight page

PositiveProjection58:36

Jordan Love is entering his age-28 season and is viewed as a top-tier, efficient quarterback who excels at throwing downfield. His physical talent is now complemented by a high level of mental processing and schematic ownership, making him an aesthetically pleasing and highly effective player.

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Josh Jacobs

NegativeInjury57:12

Jacobs' status is uncertain due to serious allegations, leading to concerns that he might miss the entire season.

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NegativeRole58:07

The source suggests Josh Jacobs might not play at all this year due to serious allegations, questioning his future in football.

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Luther Burden

PositiveBreakout64:16

Luther Burden is viewed as a high-potential talent in the Bears' passing game, though his current value is based more on theoretical projection than established production.

Insight page

Matthew Golden

PositiveBreakout39:46

Golden had a limited rookie role but showed promise downfield, ranking top 20 in EPA per target on throws 10+ yards. The source expects him to be a much better player this year as his repertoire and opportunities expand.

Insight page

Sam LaPorta

PositiveProjection3:46

The source views Sam LaPorta as a high-end tight end and a key component of the Lions' elite skill talent. Optimism for the offense is tied to the expectation that LaPorta will be a healthier and more productive player in 2026 compared to last season.

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Tucker Kraft

PositiveUsage41:12

Craft is described as a 'souped-up' version of Tyler Warren and a superior blocker. Last year, he averaged 1.15 EPA per reception against man coverage and 351 of his 489 yards came after the catch, making him a dangerous underneath threat.

Insight page

NegativeInjury42:35

The source expresses nervousness regarding Craft's health, noting he has been hurt all offseason and is pushing hard to return for Week 1 following a major knee injury.

Insight page

NegativeInjury57:56

The source expresses concern for Tucker Kraft, who is returning from a major knee injury.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,476

0:00Welcome to The Athletic Football Show brought to you by the U.S.

0:03Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card. I'm Robert Mays. Today, it's the NFC North preview, one of my favorite shows of the year,

0:10every year, and today was no exception. Probably my favorite one that we've done.

0:13I had a lot of juice with this one because it's an incredibly intriguing division.

0:18Let's get to it. Me, Dave and Derek breaking down the NFC North right now.

0:22I've always got a little more pep in my step for the NFC North preview for a few different reasons.

0:27It was the first show we ever did on this feed.

0:30It was me and Nate Tice in August of 2020, which is six years ago now.

0:35It's the first show that ever appeared on The Athletic Football Show, the NFC North preview.

0:39And it's just the division I grew up with.

0:42It's the teams I grew up with. Even when I visit them during training camp, it just feels so familiar and comfortable.

0:48They're teams I've been visiting forever. All the people are the same in the background.

0:52And so there is a certain level of familiarity, but also excitement every time I get to talk about this division.

0:58This would apply to the AFC North too, but I've always admired the geography of the NFC North and how it's really like a close knit division.

1:06Like you can get to all of these places in a car.

1:09It's further than you think to Minneapolis. The AFC North is much better.

1:13It's like eight hours, but it's doable. Yes, it's doable.

1:16And I just I love the familiarity. There's obviously there's a lot of people from all four teams here in Chicago.

1:21It's just it's a very collegiate division and it's it's fun.

1:25Yeah, you felt that last night when anytime we spoke even moderately positively about the Packers.

1:29We were jeered by the crowd at our live show.

1:32That's all you need to know about that. I mean, if you said anything about any of the non Bears teams in a positive way except except for.

1:40I mean, no, I think for the most part that that was true.

1:43Yeah, it was. It was true. Think about it feeling collegiate.

1:46These are all like the oldest teams in the NFL.

1:49Like the AFC North got some newer ones in there.

1:52The Ravens aren't aren't very old, but like this is truly like this has football since it's been started.

1:57So let's dig into it. We're going to start again.

2:00We're doing these in order of divisional odds, not in order of last year's finish for this one.

2:05It's particularly important, but we're going to start with the Detroit Lions.

2:08Our preview for the 2026 Detroit Lions. They're off season in 60 seconds.

2:12Drew Petsing in as the offensive coordinator. Cade Mays at center.

2:15Obviously have lost him for a good chunk of this season already.

2:19Larry Borum for offensive line depth. Juice Scruggs as part of the David Montgomery trade.

2:23Roger McCreary, Christian Izzy and Chuck Clark, Rocky Sin and Avanti Maddox both back.

2:27DJ Wanham and Ben Barch. Some of those names might be surprising like why I would include them.

2:32They're all going to be relevant as part of this conversation.

2:35We'll get to it. The David Montgomery trade lost David Montgomery.

2:38Al-Gadeen Mohamed, Taylor Decker no longer on this team.

2:40Amik Robertson, DJ Reader, Alex Anzalone, Khalif Raymond, Coyote Awaseka.

2:43In the draft, we have Blake Miller in round one, Derek Moore in round two.

2:47Isaac Tesla is made up of about five third round draft picks.

2:51Over the course of many years. Yes. For each of these teams, we're going to kick things off with what we are

2:57most excited to see with them in 2026. Derek, why don't you start us off?

3:01What are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 Lions?

3:05The offense is going to be a firework show again because they always are.

3:09The funniest part about this. We do not share notes prior.

3:12I've you guys drop an answer in and then I go look at it in my own document.

3:17I also said verbatim. The offense is still a firework show.

3:20So we both independently came to that exact same framing mind melding.

3:23Then that's what they are. Because even if last year was imperfect, the thing that they were still good at was explosive

3:29plays and the best players making incredible plays. Jameer Gibbs was still one of the best backs in the league like Jameson Williams.

3:36I think him taking a step almost kind of went under the radar a little bit because I think we just felt

3:42not as good about the Lions offense overall. But he was fantastic last season.

3:46Amon-Ra St. Brown is an amazing player. Sam Laporta, I think, is still a really good tight end like this.

3:51The collection of offensive talent is insane. The quarterback is really good and it feels more like his offense than it had even when he got there.

3:59And so I just have a really, really big amount of faith that if last year is the floor where they were

4:05still seventh in EPA per play or EPA per drive, I feel pretty good that they're going to be top seven again at minimum.

4:12And like if things break right, they could be the best in the league again.

4:16They fired the offensive coordinator like five or six weeks into the season, whatever it is and fire move him to the side.

4:22And they still were like a top seven offense by any metric that you want to use.

4:27That says a lot. I drafted Amin Ross St.

4:30Brown in the fantasy league that we're in the other day.

4:33Yeah, pardon me afterwards was like, oh man, should I have done that?

4:36You look at the numbers last three years for Amin Ross St.

4:40Brown, 119 catches for 1515 yards and 10 touchdowns, 115 catches for 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns, 117 catches for 1400 yards and 11 touchdowns.

4:47It's pretty good. Yeah, pretty solid and consistent. And I think even in a year where it all felt a little bit

4:53more unsettled, this was still a very, very good offense.

4:56This is the short list of best skill talent in the NFL, particularly if Sam Laporta is a healthier, more productive player this year.

5:02I mean, of course, there are a few teams that could quibble with that, but they're on that list of three or 14.

5:09It's at least like I think you can make an easier case that it's the most complete to like if you want

5:15to say like I'd rather have Jamar Chase and T Higgins, plus whatever else like sure.

5:20Top to bottom. But the fact that they have a guy who is at minimum a pro bowler at every single position

5:26and in the case of Jameer Gibbs, maybe the best at it and maybe the best at his position in the entire league.

5:32It's pretty hard to find anything that looks like that.

5:35When you look at the offense last year, the overall numbers by the end of it were really good.

5:40And that's, again, I think part of the reason that you can build this case for optimism.

5:45Just putting into some context about why last year did feel a little bit different.

5:49We talked about this in the moment, but I think it's worth bringing up again.

5:53Per NextGen last year, the Lions had eight games with a 40% or lower offensive success rate.

5:58Eight in 2023 and 2024 combined, they had six.

6:01Mm hmm. So even if the heights of the offense were still really impressive, really dangerous, you felt how explosive they could be.

6:07It was just so much more up and down last year than it had been at any point.

6:12So if they just steady this thing, that's what this is all about.

6:16I think we could easily talk ourselves into this being one of the best offices in the league again.

6:21Yeah, I do too. And again, like who knows exactly how good Drew Petsing is.

6:25I know that we'll talk about that. But like, again, I'm confident that he's not like get fired in the middle of

6:31the season sort of bad like we had with the Lions last year.

6:35And so I feel pretty good about the ship being steady, dear.

6:38We've joked about it before, but it's fun to look at the Lions and you go into it with misgivings and doubts and concerns.

6:45And yeah, they fired their OC midway through last year.

6:48We're still top seven. The defense fell apart again.

6:50I should use scare quotes because they finished 11th in defensive DVOA.

6:54Like anecdotally, there's so much reason to think that last year's Lions were not all that impressive of a team.

6:59But the data tells you something else entirely. So what are you most excited about?

7:04I want to talk about this in greater detail because I agree with the premise.

7:08But are we paying enough attention to what is staring Jameer Gibbs in the face right now, which is a backfield with zero competition for touches?

7:15Isaiah Pacheco is on IR anyway to start the season in the year 2026.

7:19I just don't think that would have mattered anyway.

7:22Jameer Gibbs, the other running backs on this team have 12 career touches between the three of them.

7:27Jameer Gibbs is in line to do all of the work for this team.

7:30And it's not just me saying that Dan Campbell used one of my favorite football phrases.

7:35There is this summer bell cow. That's what you want to hear.

7:38Jameer, Jameer Gibbs, the bell cow running back as a rookie.

7:41He got 45% of the Lions touches and it's gone up every year from there to the point where he was at 63%.

7:48That is, I mean, it's a drastic increase. And obviously if you watch the Lions last year, you know, by year three,

7:54it was Sonic and Knuckles for two years. And then last year, David Montgomery was like very clearly the number two guy there.

8:00But 63% can still be so much higher. I was curious.

8:04John Robinson got 70% of the Falcons touches last year.

8:06Christian McCaffrey in 2023 got 70%. I don't know if you could do this to Jameer Gibbs, but last year, McCaffrey got 77% of the San Francisco 49ers.

8:14That would scare me. I'm not sure I'd want to do that.

8:17No, I think that's too high. But anything between like 68 and 75%, I'm really interested to see it.

8:23And if that happens, if the, if, if Drew Petsing is good at his job and if the offensive line tweaking works,

8:29the Cade Mays thing scares me a little bit, but we'll get to that.

8:33Well, and, and he'll be back at some point during the season.

8:36Anyway, all of that to say, I really think Jameer Gibbs could have like an offensive player of the year type of year.

8:43Absolutely. With the, with the amount of work that is there for him to do and what we know about him as a player.

8:49I mean, we all know the statistics, but there's nothing standing in his way from getting that type of workload.

8:55And I remember Derek blew my mind two weeks from the end of last year where he was just like, look at

9:01Bajon Robinson's numbers and tell me we shouldn't be talking about him as an offensive player of the year candidate.

9:07But Jameer Gibbs has that type of potential and the Lions are going to have a winning record this year.

9:12Here's the one other parallel that I would make.

9:15And if we're trying to make a comparison to Bajon Robinson last year, Bajon Robinson had 115 snaps in the slot last season.

9:21Jameer Gibbs had 45. I think we're going to see Jameer Gibbs do that a lot this year.

9:26Okay. Like out of empty or you think they're getting another back on the field or back on the field.

9:32Okay. That is the easiest way I can think of to up Jameer Gibbs's production to that level because the receiving statistics are pretty obvious.

9:39Like I think it was close in terms of catches.

9:42I think Jameer had like 77 catches on the year and Bajon had like 79, like really close.

9:47But Bajon did so much more with those touches.

9:49Like he averaged a full two more yards per reception than Jameer Gibbs did.

9:53So like a better array of ways to use him as a receiver and getting more out of those routes and targets

9:59would go a long way without having to change his rushing workload that much at all.

10:04I think their mindset is we can't afford to keep him off the field and we have to use him in as many ways as we can.

10:11And I think that is often something we hear in August and July is we're going to use more pony personnel.

10:17We're going to do more two back stuff with them.

10:20I truly do believe they're going to try it.

10:23Who will pass protect in those situations? I think becomes the question because I in my mind it is in like I'm

10:29like third down because if you're thinking about this team on third down, I think we'll see a lot of 12 personnel

10:35with this team with Brock Wright and Laporta on the field.

10:38But that's look at Drew Petsing's history. But if it's third down and you're going to be an 11 or you're going

10:44to 11 if you're going to have three players who are not tight ends on the field in some capacity as receivers right now.

10:51Don't you think there's a scenario where your best three players in that spot are Jameer Gibbs, Alman Ross St.

10:56Brown and Jamison Williams? I mean outside of maybe the red zone, I think that that's absolutely true.

11:01Like unless I want to just throw up like a fade to Isaac to slot like I would much rather have Jameer Gibbs on the field.

11:09And even then like some of what he can do in like on like option routes and stuff like in the red

11:15zone, like beating up on linebackers and stuff like maybe that actually even is better than whatever you might get from to slot.

11:21And there it might be a situation where you don't feel at comfortable enough about what you're getting in pass protection from some of those other guys.

11:29And so you back off it, but I'll say it's on their minds in terms of how they could potentially make that stuff work.

11:36Let's get to what we're watching the first month of the season with the Lions.

11:40We're going to hit this for every single team.

11:42Just a curiosity. You have something that is a lingering question that you want an answer on early in the year.

11:48Derek, why don't you kick us off? What is your what are you watching the first month of the season with the Lions?

11:55I mean, to me, it's just how many of the young offensive linemen either take a step or in the case of

12:01Blake Miller, who we haven't seen really play NFL football are good at all.

12:05Like I think Christian Mahogany. I think I probably feel the best about him of the three right now, just because I

12:11think when he's been out there, I think he's been pretty decent.

12:14Tate Ratledge. The power is insane. He also still I think is a little bit like heavy footed at times and I'm

12:20wondering like how well he's able to find this.

12:23He's a stiff player. He's a little bit stiff.

12:25Like he's explosive, but he can be stiff. You're just hoping that almost like he really is like the story of the entire offense.

12:32If the floor can just be raised a little bit, his best stuff is truly like opens up touchdown sort of rushing

12:38lanes for a guy like Jameer Gibbs. It's consistency.

12:41It's just a five minute consistency in year two.

12:43100%. And then Blake Miller. I'm really excited to see because, you know, Taylor Decker, I think was was pretty tough for this team last year.

12:51But Blake Miller is unbelievably talented. Like his just to me, the balance that he plays with is like unbelievable.

12:56There are even if you just watch him in the preseason, there are a handful of reps in every game where for

13:02the first second it looks like he's going to get beat so bad that he looks undrafted.

13:07And then he just recovers and wins the rep.

13:10And you're like, that doesn't seem possible for anybody to do.

13:13And so if he's then, you know, by the end of the year putting himself in fewer losing positions, it's like, I don't know, man.

13:20He might just end up being a really good player by the end of this.

13:24So I'm excited for him. I think we understate how diminished Taylor Decker was last year with that shoulder.

13:29He dealt with it the entire season. He just wasn't right.

13:32And so even bringing in a rookie, so often we see a first round pick and we just immediately bake in, oh, this is going to work.

13:40But for the Lions, I actually don't think it's unreasonable to think with Penny Sewell moving to the left and bringing Blake

13:46Miller in, their tackle play will be better. Like full stop than it was last year because of how banged up Decker was.

13:52And based on the early returns, they're really happy with what they've gotten from Blake Miller.

13:57I feel like there are two things to jump out.

14:00One, he's just a smoother athlete than I think they expected him to be based on what they had seen on tape.

14:06And the other part is that some of that stuff you're talking about him getting in bad body positions, it was worse

14:12in the spring and has improved where he's over setting a little bit and just getting a little antsy.

14:17And you've even seen some refinement and improvement over the course of one single offseason.

14:22They feel very good about the tackles. The interior stuff is the question because you mentioned Christian Mahogany.

14:27Christian Mahogany wasn't even penciled in to be like the definite starter by the middle of August.

14:31Okay. I think he probably will end up getting that job in part because Ben Bartsch was banged up over the course of the summer.

14:38But I think they were ready for that to be a real battle between those two guys.

14:43Interesting. That was going to be one of my mini what's keeping me up at nights.

14:48Is there a scenario where if Cade Mays does not come back in short order, the interior of this line isn't that

14:54much better than it was a year ago? Because that's nightmare fuel.

14:57Yeah. Based on what you wanted this to be after drafting Cade Mays and hoping you were going to get real step ups from the two young guards.

15:05And I probably am hand waving it a little bit because when the Cade Mays injury happened, you started hearing like week

15:11six or whatever it was like mid October is the is the timetable that I'm working with right now.

15:16And that sounds great, but you can't completely take that at face value.

15:20And if you don't have him for longer or God forbid, if he's diminished because of the injury or needs time to get up to speed.

15:27I shouldn't I should not be hand waving the interior of the offensive line.

15:31It's definitely something worth being concerned about. I think the way I frame it is a worst case scenario.

15:37I think I expect Rallich to be better. I do think Scruggs.

15:40I think Glasgow has never wanted to play center.

15:42He just I think that they did that because they didn't have an option like that was a we are pivoting to this because we lost Frank Ragnow.

15:50They wanted Rallich to do it. Yeah, they tried someone else before and then Mahogany just was banged up and just never found himself.

15:57I thought I've seen enough flashes from Mahogany to still have a candlelit for him.

16:01I expect Rallich to be better. And so overall, I do think the interior will be significantly better.

16:06But that's one of those like dreadful things where if we're just going through the season, does it feel different than it was last year?

16:13Mm hmm. That could be a tough reality if you're a Lions fan.

16:17The other thing that I that I know when I look at this is and I love the juice Scruggs trade.

16:23We talked about it at the time. Their depth is better.

16:26It's already being tested before the season has started.

16:28And unfortunately, you can't predict what else might happen.

16:31And they're already thinner than they were supposed to be heading into week one.

16:35I'm going to take the offensive line point and just take it a little bit broader.

16:39I'm just curious what the drew Petsing version of this offense looks like.

16:43We don't need to completely rehash it now. If you want to go listen to the new play callers episode we did

16:49about the slate of new guys are gonna be calling offenses and defenses.

16:53We really dug into it, but he learned all the Lions language.

16:56He's going to come over and run an offense that has much of the same DNA for what we've seen from the Lions over the last few years.

17:04I anticipate some tweaks. We went we mentioned it in the moment.

17:07This was a team that did not the Cardinals were not a team that ran a lot of like outside zone compared to average.

17:14They were down near the bottom of the NFL.

17:16I think we'll see more gap scheme runs because that's what petsing does.

17:20I think we'll see some more the return to just play action overall.

17:24Like last year, the run action rate for the Lions went from 66% in 2024, which is the highest in the league

17:30and the highest in the league over the last two years to 57% to 10 percentage point drop nine percentage points from one season to the other.

17:37Why like that's what this team does like putting them in scenarios where you're just letting Jared rip in breakers off play action.

17:44That's what they do. Well, and that's what drew wants to do.

17:47And so I anticipate a return to that because this is a really good play action team.

17:52And I think it just be about the running game getting back to where it was per true media 26th and rushing success rate last year.

17:59The Detroit Lions were 26. They were 25th and first downs per rush.

18:03They were third and rushing success rate in 2024.

18:05Some of that is offensive line diminishing and some of that is Ben Johnson.

18:09And so can we get back to a place where this is definitively a top 10 rushing offense in 2024.

18:15They had 82 third and seven plus situations all year.

18:18They had 103 of them last year. They had the lowest yards to go on third down in the NFL in 2024.

18:24So just even if the offense overall was still a top seven unit, these are the things that over time just start

18:30to pile up and make it a little bit harder, making you feel like you're fighting a little bit more against the

18:36current in the way that the Lions were pretty often last year.

18:39To bring it back to Gibbs, his down to down rates are not good.

18:43They were bad. All the reasons you're really bad.

18:46It was all explosiveness that made him a great back last year.

18:49And so that's a big part of my argument as well as if you can get back to some consistency in the

18:55run game in addition to what he does as a game breaker.

18:59It'll make a huge difference. I do have some numbers on it.

19:02The Lions were 40% outside zone team last year per sumer sports numbers.

19:06The Cardinals were at 9% dead last. And so where they fall between those is going to be really interesting.

19:11No team ran more counter or lead pull plays than the Arizona Cardinals last year.

19:16And so we'll see. I think it'll be a grab bag.

19:19It's a big block in terms of the run game.

19:21And it should be a mix. And I think, you know, part of why the Cardinals were able to do that was

19:28they had a center who was really good at doing that.

19:31To me, that's not as much as Scruggs' game.

19:33But if they're trying to do a little bit more just like you get the guards on the move though.

19:39Yeah, which is good. Yes, Ratledge is a good athlete.

19:42And I think even if you're running power to his side where he's throwing the down block will shoot.

19:47Yeah, he's really, really good at that, too. Like I think where you see some of like Ratledge lumbering is when he's

19:53like comboing and then trying to get to a linebacker.

19:56That's not what he does. But unlike power, like there's a little bit more of like the whole point is he's just

20:02got to knock that one technique or three technique back.

20:05And I think he'll be able to do a really good job of that.

20:09And so I think a little bit more of punch you in the face run game, I think would probably be pretty good for them.

20:16What do you watch in the first month of the season with the Lions?

20:20If you're building a front seven, Aiden Hutchinson and Jack Campbell is about as good a starting point as you could ask for.

20:26What you get from the rest of that in Detroit is, I think, one of the biggest inflection points of how good this team could be.

20:33And so, like I said, I mean, building a pass rush out of Aiden Hutchinson, you can do that.

20:39That's kind of bit like they've had to do that in recent years.

20:42But wouldn't you love to get some help? And 40 percent of their pressures from last year are or excuse me, I'm sorry.

20:49Aiden Hutchinson and Al-Kadeen Muhammad accounted for 40 percent of their pressures last year.

20:53Al-Kadeen Muhammad is gone. There's a lot of guys that you feel good about who can help this.

20:58But what does that look like in the first month of the season?

21:01We talked about Lynn McNeil was was banged up last year.

21:04What does he look like this year? Tyleek Williams.

21:07Apparently very good. Good. Excellent. That to me, it's not that dissimilar to me from the conversation we've been having about Nnamdi Matabike.

21:13It's not dissimilar to me when you just think about what that guy was at his best.

21:18That's a really good point. What it can be as a transformative piece.

21:22The Cardinals played the Lions a couple years ago.

21:24And going into that game, the player that Drew Petsing was most worried about in the Lions defense was Alim McNeil.

21:30This summer during practices, that's what it just felt like.

21:33It's good. That guy that we were scared of two years ago, that's what he looks like.

21:38And that to me is the most important thing that can happen for the Lions defense.

21:42Dude, if that happens, it very drastically changes my opinion of this team because it's huge.

21:47If he's that guy, we've talked about Tyleek Williams making any sort of year two jump and just being somebody that can be part of that.

21:54Like, DJ Wanham is just a steady, Eddie, good football player.

21:57So like if but if he is part of it with getting that from your defensive tackles, that feels really, really good.

22:03You throw Derek Moore in there. Like, it's just like you're piecemealing that other edge spot.

22:08But they feel good about the rotation at the very least because that's been a weakness every year.

22:13They've already had to do that. There's it's it's funny when you look at it because they from the outside, you look

22:19at that spot and like, oh, this is a need.

22:22I think they believe it's in a better spot than it's been over the last like three.

22:26It's all about perspective. Yeah, they would know. But yeah, so you can like I said, you can do this with Aiden

22:33Hutchinson just sort of holding everything up like Atlas, but you don't want to, you know?

22:37And so what are you getting from the rest of those guys?

22:40This is also a good place to say, can we note that it looks like Devin White might be a starter for this team?

22:47They should send him 200 times. I mean, that might actually work.

22:50Yeah, and like Kelvin Shepard didn't blitz much last year, but Devin White is really good at that.

22:56And I assume it's going to be Barnes. Well, how they sort that out to is interesting.

23:00Yeah, but like it Barnes is weird, too, because like you kind of want him on the edge.

23:05He is a Sam. Yeah, it's a bit. I still like, but I guess you said that because he's been there for a while.

23:12It's in my notes to like Kelvin Shepard said it was way back at the combine, but he said they want to

23:18play more nickel this year because the line will have to happen.

23:22They've played so much base, but like how do you sort that out with Barnes?

23:26Is Devin White actually a meaningful piece of this thing?

23:29I'm curious about that. Barnes is making $8 million a year.

23:32I can't imagine that they're going to keep him off the field for Devin White, even if in theory he's been more

23:38of a Sam that you play down near the line of scrimmage.

23:41The nickel thing is 100% has to happen, which let's just transition into what's keeping us up in it, because I think

23:47we all have the exact same answer about that.

23:50But for each of these teams, we're going to talk about just a looming fear or worry that we have about how this could go poorly.

23:57Derek, what is keeping you up at night about the Detroit Lions this year?

24:01I mean, yeah, the secondary, the safeties, neither of them are going to play for the first month of the season, at

24:07least in Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph. I think they're both still on IR.

24:11They're starting cornerbacks today, according to our lads, Rock Yasin, DJ Reed and Christian Isian, who has played like every position in

24:17the secondary for the Bucks over the last couple of years.

24:20I like Christian Isian. I really like Christian. I think Christian Isian got demoted just because the Bucks drafted a lot of good players in their secondary.

24:28I'm not saying he's like a pro bowler or anything, but I'm excited to watch him.

24:32He's one of those that like how you feel about the player and the signing changes over the offseason when they signed him.

24:39And he to me was going to be their utility off the bench in a pinch guy.

24:44I was like, that rocks. I love that. It is a little scary.

24:47I'm like, it's a little different when you're in the week one lineup.

24:51Yeah. And that's how it is for a lot of these guys.

24:54I mean, right now it sounds like it's going to be Chuck Clark and Avanti Maddox at safety and Christian Isian at the nickel.

25:01That's just not what the Detroit Lions were supposed to look like on the back end.

25:05Well, Avanti Maddox has played nickel for a lot or large part of the handful of.

25:10Oh, excuse me. I screwed that up. Well, no, I think he it seems like he might start at safety, but he's

25:16been a nickel for a lot of times. Yeah.

25:18Oh, yeah, that's it. Avanti Maddox and Chuck Clark and then Isian at the nickel.

25:23Yeah, but I'm saying Maddox has been a nickel previously for a lot of other teams.

25:27That's where they're at. Just like throw it out there and see who sticks.

25:31That kind of does feel like it. And you're talking about nickel.

25:34Are you talking about nickel compared to base? This team played an incredible amount of base defense last year, 60% of plays.

25:41And I think they did that because that was probably their best 11 last season with Amika Robertson having to play outside

25:47as much as he did because Terry Arnold was hurt.

25:50If you're trying to spin this positively, I think that's what you can theoretically do.

25:54Kirby Joseph and Terry Arnold only played 600 combined snaps last year.

25:57Like this was a defense that the numbers overall weren't that bad when they were already banged up in the secondary.

26:03The Brian branch part of it is a different consideration.

26:06The numbers are not very good. If you look at the stretch where branch wasn't in that's the scariest part.

26:11But if he can get back by week five week six after coming off the pup list, can you write the ship

26:18enough and have it be similar enough to last year's personnel where the overall quality is similar to what it was last year?

26:24Because when you look at the numbers last season, their biggest issue is that they just gave up an absurd amount of

26:30explosive place like an absurd amount of them. So and a lot of that was coming out of playing base defense.

26:36They allowed 60 explosive passes playing base last year.

26:39No other team in the league allowed more than 40.

26:41Some of that is volume, just the sheer amount of base that you're playing.

26:45But even if you look at other base heavy teams, the Lions allowed an 18.8 percent explosive power pass rate last year in base.

26:52The Vikings and the Raiders, both of whom were very heavy base defense teams were like 13 and a half percent.

26:58So they were just getting cooked. There were 73 explosive passes last year in the NFL out of 11 personnel against base defense 73.

27:05The Lions allowed 17 of those 73 plays. That's obscene.

27:07I have to assume some of that is volume, but it's still not.

27:11Of course, but even still a quarter of them.

27:13And like we can say like that's partly volume, but it's like.

27:17They're playing that way because they felt that that was still their best way to play.

27:21And that is still where they arrived with a lot of the explosive.

27:25And I just don't think that's going to happen again this year with Anzalone out of the picture.

27:30And with even if the DBs are all rotational kind of plugging holes and problems players, they still have a lot of them.

27:36And I still think those are probably that's probably the best way for you to end up playing as a team.

27:42The thing that keeps me awake at night is it's similar to the Kate Mays situation.

27:47It's so easy to say hold the rope until Brian branches back and he can be a stabilizing force.

27:52He's coming off of an Achilles injury. And I know this year more than any year that apparently doesn't mean anything.

27:58Well, it doesn't mean anything for guys practicing. We still haven't seen any of those guys.

28:02Yeah, way professional. They're all ahead. Yeah, it's like, well, until week four.

28:06I don't know if that's true. It would be incredible if every single guy that I can just all that.

28:12Peter pillow Daniel Jones. Everybody has been practicing for a month and then they play it.

28:16It's just like, oh, they look like, well, why'd they do that?

28:20Yeah, there is a difference. And I'm just not willing to to bake Brian branch playing at his normal level in right away.

28:26I hate that because he's one of my favorite players in the league, but I got to see what that looks like.

28:32And I think it's more complicated than saying the cavalry is coming week six because I mean, you hope that's true.

28:38It might not be. Yeah, I have the secondary I think is exactly the answer.

28:42And even if they were able to hold down the fort a little bit last season as those injuries piled up and just a play concerns.

28:49Taren Arnold didn't play well on top of being banged up for a good chunk of the season.

28:55So I think that would be the rationalization cope approach to it.

28:58But I still think if you're being honest with yourself, the secondary is the element of this team that should be keeping you up at night.

29:05For each one of these teams, we are going to chat about what success looks like.

29:10Obviously, it's different for everybody. Derek, what is success for the 2026 Lions?

29:13I think just kind of get back to a spot where we don't doubt that you are a pretty regular 10-11 win

29:19team, because right now, I think even if they are technically ahead of the odds, I don't think everybody feels perfectly good

29:26that they're a 10 or 11 win football team the way that we have the last two going into the last two seasons.

29:32I think going into 24 and going into 25, everyone was like, yeah, 10 or 11 wins.

29:37It's like bare minimum. And I think if they can get back to that spot, the offense feel stabilized with Drew Petzin and Jared Goff there.

29:44I think that to me is success. I think they're in such a retooling period of this defense that they to me

29:50are not a like championship contender necessarily right now.

29:53So if they just get to the spot where we feel really good about them, I think that's success.

29:58We had a whole conversation in June about whether it was fair that they were the betting favorite to win the division.

30:04And we unanimously agreed that yes, in the preseason, at least that's fair.

30:08The nice thing about finishing in fourth place is you are gifted with three much easier games.

30:13Their schedule is hilarious. Their schedule is incredible. It's crazy.

30:15Yeah. You get the NFC South and three woeful opponents.

30:18And of course, we can't predict that to a certainty, but it is a very favorable looking schedule.

30:23The Lions should win the division. That would be a successful season.

30:27It would be a nice cherry on top if you could win a playoff game because they haven't done that since 2023.

30:33They went 0 and 1 in 2024 and didn't make it last year, which is still it's the most if I were a Lions fan.

30:40It's so depressing. I would just I would just sit there and cry about about that every time I thought about that team was so good.

30:47It was so good. I didn't mean to bring that up Lions fans, but the point is it's been a couple years.

30:53So it's worth bringing up. It's worth bringing up the it may never be as good as this again.

30:58Dan Campbell himself said it's worth it every time you talk about this team because it's real winning the division and preferably

31:05winning a playoff game, winning the playoffs would be a successful season when the division show everyone last year was the exception.

31:11Yep. And the one thing we did not mention as it relates to this team, and I only want to do this

31:17because I've been trying to bang this drum all summer and it's just worth bringing up.

31:21I think we've really under discussed how important the quarterback is to what this team feels like year over year that consistency

31:28on offense that we're talking about the ability to not even dip below top 10 levels last year is everything else feels so chaotic.

31:34To me just speaks to the type of real stabilizing force that Jared golf has become and he's one of those guys

31:40we don't talk about or think about that way often enough and I think we really should.

31:45I'm so glad you said that and you have been pounding the drum for Jared golf all summer and I thought about

31:51this when I was thinking about what would be a successful season for the Lions because for several teams, I'm very quick to say.

31:58I'm very quick to say. Clock's ticking. How much time do you have with this?

32:02Of course, you can't predict the future, but Jared golf game lends itself to a lot of time.

32:07He told you 31. He sat down with you this summer and said, I want to play into my 40s or close to it.

32:14Like I think you've got a lot of runway with Jared golf and his game should age gracefully to where I mean everybody can't move now.

32:21Yeah, exactly. He's never been able to move. He couldn't move when he was 28.

32:25So obviously the NFL is tricky like that and I know things can change on a dime.

32:30But if I was a Lions fan, I would feel good that we have reason to hope that we can build great

32:36teams around Jared golf for like quite a while to come instead of this year or next year.

32:41It's got to happen. Like I don't feel that way about Detroit.

32:45I think there are really select few quarterbacks who you could trust to have the intellectual like creative partnership he had with

32:51drew pets in this offseason about the way they went back and forth about the offense how much of a resource he was for an offensive coordinator.

32:58It just not that many guys could do it.

33:01And it's it's a it's really to me an expression of an idea that we talked about where sometimes the quarterback becomes

33:07the offense when he is when he has the capacity to do that and has been in it for long enough.

33:13And I think we're at a point now where like the Jared the Lions offense is channeled through Jared golf in a

33:19way that we don't talk about often enough. The scope of talent is incredible, but he is a perfect sort of quarterback

33:25to unlock these players in the way that they're supposed to be unlocked.

33:29Well, and up until the last five years, and I think this is still true.

33:33What did we say every offseason offense is secure than defense offense is secure than defense.

33:38The reason is is there were for so long like quarterbacks the top 10 quarterbacks were all guys who had done it

33:44for eight plus years and we're like truly guys leading the ship on like how the offense is constructed.

33:49That's why offense was sticky and Jared Goff even if he's not like as flashy as some of the other guys.

33:55He absolutely has that quality. Yeah, he's played extremely well and continues to it.

33:59It's just again, I'm trying to bring that back as often as we can mention it.

34:03All right, guys, before we get to the Packers preview, let's take a quick break.

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34:28Let's get to the Green Bay Packers. Our preview for the 2026 Green Bay Packers.

34:32They're offseason in 60 seconds. Jonathan Gannon is the defensive coordinator.

34:35Bobby Babich is the passing game coordinator, which I do think is interesting.

34:39Signed Tyrod Taylor, Javon Hargrave traded for Zaire Franklin.

34:41Colby Wooden got caught by the Colts. It's just highway robbery by the Packers.

34:45Benjamin St. Juice. Jonu Smith is here now. Traded for Mark Redman, which is something that will come up because I do think it's important.

34:52Also traded for Caleb Johnson in a post-Josh Jacobs world.

34:55Worth mentioning, Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner exemplist, even though it's not technically a loss.

35:00Also lost Romeo Dobbs, Quay Walker, Kingsley Anikbari, Malik Willis, Elton Jenkins, Rasheed Walker, and moved on from Nate Hobbs.

35:05In the draft, Brant Sise in the second round, Chris McClellan in the third round, and Denis Dennis Sutton?

35:11Yeah. In the fourth round. What are we most excited about, Derek, with the 2026 Green Bay Packers?

35:16I just love watching this quarterback play football, man.

35:18Like, it's really as simple as that. Oh, we know.

35:21I just think it is, it's both in terms of how it looks and what he's trying to accomplish.

35:26I do think that, like, just the elasticity, the calmness with which he kind of maneuvers and bounces around the pocket, I

35:32think is pretty unique among the NFL right now.

35:35Some of the back foot stuff, when he first started doing it when he was a starter, it's like, what's wrong with you?

35:41Why are you doing that? And now it's like, he's kind of the only guy who can get away with it at that rate, and it looks incredible.

35:49And so I just think that he's incredibly aesthetically pleasing to watch for that reason.

35:53And he is the most, like, chuck it down the field quarterback we have in the NFL.

35:58Over the last two seasons, the only two quarterbacks with a higher percentage of their throws to travel 20 plus yards are

36:04Anthony Richardson, who, like, that was not real. And Marcus Mariota, who is at the point where he's just, like, chucking it because why wouldn't I?

36:12But Jordan Love is doing this while being one of the most efficient players in the NFL.

36:16In a very real situation. Yes. Like, it's, I just think that he is an unbelievably cool player to watch.

36:22We talk about this a lot. With this idea.

36:24And we've seen a lot with a lot of the second chance quarterbacks that have made the most of their opportunities.

36:30Jared Goff being one of those guys. This convergence, when you get to age 28, 29 as a quarterback, where the physical

36:36talent is still as potent as it's been, but the mental side is now coming along at the same point.

36:42And you reach this connection moment where it all comes together at the same time and you kind of hit what is your peak as a player.

36:50Jordan Love is 27 years old. He just turned 27.

36:52Yeah. This is his age 28 season. He was calling their plays during the preseason.

36:57Like, I am very excited. Kyle McCord just, like, nuked whoever they were playing with Jordan Love calling the plays.

37:02Yes. And then that's a silly thing, but, like, I do think it really speaks to what his, like, ownership of what they're doing from a schematic perspective.

37:10And so that convergence of the physical talent plus what he is clearly becoming capable of and comfortable with mentally, I'm excited to watch that.

37:17Mm-hmm. In a way, like, as a football fan, I'm excited to watch it.

37:21As somebody emotionally invested in a team in this division, I'm less excited to watch it, but it is a very cool potentiality for this team.

37:28Mm-hmm. And it's, like, it's not even just that, like, Jordan Love now is on, he's going into, what, year six as

37:34an NFL player, his fourth year as a starter.

37:37It's also the fact that it's all been in the same offense the entire time.

37:41Like, that is a pretty rare thing for a guy to get with, like, his level of talent.

37:46It accelerates the process we're talking about. Yes, it accelerates that.

37:49And so just a guy with his level of talent, some of the highs that he's already shown, like, I just, to

37:55me, the line goes up with him until it doesn't.

37:58Allow me to piggyback on your point, because it does hinge pretty heavily on Jordan Love being good at football, and I think he is.

38:05But I'm excited about the vision for these receivers.

38:08The pass-catching group overall, I'm incredibly high on. Mm-hmm.

38:10You don't have to squint that hard to see it.

38:13Like, the depth isn't as good as it used to be, and there is a little bit of forecasting involved, but not as much as you might guess.

38:21Can we talk about Christian Watson for a second?

38:23I understand that you can't just completely ignore durability issues for a guy that's missed 30% of his games.

38:29But just the second half of last season, when Christian Watson came back from his ACL, it would be pretty easy to

38:35make the argument that he was, like, a top-20 receiver in the NFL.

38:38Like, the stats kind of blew my mind. He was, over these, whatever it was, like, nine games, second half of the

38:45year, tied for third in receiving touchdowns with six, tied for ninth in explosive receptions with 17.

38:49He was second in the league in the percentage of his catches that were explosive.

38:54Led the league in air yards per catch. Seventh in EPA per target.

38:57Fifth among all receivers in yards per route run.

39:00Ninth in first downs per route run. And he, uh, first downs per route run, he was tied with Stephon Diggs and only trailing George Pickens.

39:07He was playing out of his mind. He was, like, absolutely awesome.

39:10And all of that, despite the fact that his target share was 19%, which was tied with Mack Hollins over that stretch of time.

39:17So, like, if you take away, obviously, like, the durability thing is very real and not having the depth could be concerning.

39:23But if we're feeding him the ball more this year, based on what he was doing last year, I completely understand why Green Bay gave him $110 million.

39:31Like, I think that number sounds mind-boggling when you think about the fact that he's never had more than 620 yards in a season.

39:38But if you're hoping that that was the start of things to come, I completely get it.

39:43And then Matthew Golden obviously had a very small role as a rookie last year.

39:47But again, they were so deep at receiver and had so many more experienced guys.

39:51The stat I like the most about him is he had 10 catches for 265 yards and was top 20 in EPA

39:57per target when the Packers targeted him 10 or plus yards down the field.

40:01Because that's the other thing. He ran so many, like, gadgety routes within, like, 6 to 8 yards of the line of scrimmage.

40:07When he had an opportunity to do stuff down the field, it looked pretty damn good in fits and starts.

40:13And so banking on the talent that he had that made him a first-round pick and actually opening up his repertoire and

40:19his opportunities, I'm pretty bought in on what that's going to look like.

40:23It's not as clean as this group was last year because I think the roles for this team were a little bit more defined.

40:30But it reminds me a little bit of thinking about the Colts pass catching group coming into last season.

40:35Where even, and again, the roles aren't quite as clean as they were with the Colts.

40:39Like, Pierce is your field stretcher. Pittman's your dirty work over the middle kind of RPO guy.

40:44And then Downs is your underneath man beater. The Colts don't have that sort of clarity.

40:49The Packers don't have that sort of clarity. But everyone has more juice.

40:52Like, collectively, every single player is explosive. If Jaden Reed is your slot option, he's an explosive player from the slot.

40:58Christian Watson is an explosive player. Matthew Golden ran 4-2-9-40 at the Combine.

41:02Like, there's just so much giddy-up collectively among this group.

41:05So even if the roles aren't quite as cut and dry, collectively, the ways that you can attack the field and the potential explosiveness you have is incredible.

41:12And that's before even getting to Tucker Craft. The one thing that I do think is similar is that I think that

41:19Tucker Craft is just a souped-up version of Tyler Warren.

41:21Oh, yes, absolutely. Like, the idea of I can just spit the ball to you and good things are going to happen, they can play that role similarly.

41:29And Craft is a better blocker. And so Craft is just—I think we've probably, because he's been hurt all offseason, got hurt

41:35last year, just forgotten, like, what type of player he was.

41:38Last year, when Tucker Craft was on the field, the Packers averaged .3 EPA per dropback.

41:43He was incredible. He was amazing. .3. Looking at the numbers, I was really interested in this because the numbers for the

41:49Packers against man coverage last year were significantly better than they were the year before.

41:53That's some Romeo Dobbs, but his numbers purely against man weren't as good as I expected.

41:58Tucker Craft last year averaged 1.15 EPA per reception against man coverage.

42:01What? So every time he caught the ball, the Packers got a point.

42:05And I went back and I watched a lot of those snaps.

42:08It's a lot of really quick stuff off play action, which makes sense, right?

42:12So you're in man. We're going to hard-run action.

42:14We're going to get somebody filling. And then the person who's responsible for Tucker Craft and man coverage is now flying down into the sea gap.

42:22He's going to leak out. We're going to dump him the ball.

42:25It's going to be an explosive play. 351 of Tucker Craft's 489 yards last year came after the catch.

42:30It's all, yes, because like once he gets the ball, he's just like a moving freight train.

42:35He averaged 4.5 air yards per target last year.

42:38He averaged 11.1 yards per target. You can do the math on that.

42:41And you know what the scariest part of all of this is?

42:45Dave just laid out everything about why you should be terrified about Christian Watson down the field.

42:49So underneath, within the first 10 yards, Tucker Craft is as scary as anybody in the NFL.

42:54Those two played 54 snaps together last year. Yeah.

42:57If they're on the field together and you have a quarterback that can truly threaten every blade of grass on the field

43:03at any given time, there is a chance that like even if Golden doesn't necessarily take a step and even if Jaden

43:09Reed just kind of is what he is, if Watson and Craft are just on the field together all the time, it's kind of all wheels up.

43:17It's a great point. I think some of my optimism is building in a step for Matthew Golden.

43:22He's one of those players that, all right, why didn't Matthew Golden produce as a rookie?

43:26Because the role that he was drafted to play was more than capably filled within the offense by Romeo Dobbs in a

43:32way that he could not have filled it the year before, which is why they drafted Matthew Golden.

43:37The Packers do that, man. Exactly. And so I do think that Matthew Golden will be a much better player than he

43:43was last year, but I think it's a great point.

43:46Even if he's not, they're still probably going to be scary with that entire group collectively.

43:51I am a little nervous about Tucker Craft. He's like killing himself to get out there for week one.

43:56He's an unhinged, insane person. He certainly seems that way.

43:59Compliment. Of course, yes, in the best possible way.

44:01But like, you know, he's the warlord. He's like, I'm not going to hold out.

44:06I'm going to be out there because I love my boys.

44:09And just take care of yourself, Tucker. Like you only get so many opportunities to sign a deal the size of the one you're going to sign.

44:16So just I want the Packers to be fun, but let's think about the long term here.

44:21All right. So that's the stuff worth getting really excited about.

44:24Let's change the tone of this conversation because there's plenty of stuff about the Packers that maybe is a little bit less

44:30thrilling when you look at the rest of the roster.

44:33What are you watching the first month of the season with the Green Bay Packers, Dave?

44:37I want to see how the defense responds to nine months of being told they ain't shit without my car.

44:43Because like, let's just call it what it is.

44:46They I mean, like, no, if you're looking for reasons not to be optimistic about the Packers, it's I mean, they're of

44:52course the offensive line and we can get into that.

44:55But defensively, there's not a lot worth getting visibly excited about with Micah Parsons sideline.

44:59If you want to get excited about Devante Wyatt also coming back from injury, I think that's a valid point.

45:04But Micah Parsons is the bread and butter for this defense.

45:07And they were not as good statistically as you might guess when he was out there.

45:12Those two games are doing a lot of lifting.

45:14They really are. But as as middling as they were in a lot of ways, when Micah was on the field, they

45:21fell off a frickin cliff when he got hurt in Denver.

45:24And some of that is why it as well, because you make the point all the time, Derek, they had like nobody left at DTAC.

45:31They were on they got to the playoff on DT six by the end of it.

45:35It was tough. It was still hot ass from like December 18th until the end of the season.

45:40I mean, from the time Micah got hurt, the Packers fell from 10th in defensive success rate over the course of the season to 30th.

45:47Like overnight, they were giving up 34 and a half percent of opposing rushes against them went for a first down over

45:53the last like three, four weeks of the season.

45:5615 explosive rushes allowed over the last three weeks.

45:58Dead last in the league. This is all for you, Miami Dolphins fans.

46:02I mean, what's the guy supposed to do with that?

46:05That's what the Miami roster looks like. I mean, that's true.

46:08So I also it's worth saying I gave the Lions a little bit of shit for the lack of pressures on their front.

46:14The Packers don't have 56 percent of last season's pressures in their lineup for week one, because in addition to Micah, Kingsley and Ibar is gone.

46:22I know that 2025 or Sean Gary wasn't somebody worth getting excited about for the most part.

46:26But that was a lot of pressures that are gone.

46:29The edge rushing group right now. It's tough is this is not theoretical.

46:33The edge rushing group right now is Lucas Van Ness, Baron Sorrell and Brenton Cox Jr.

46:37That group combined last season, the three of them had 34 pressures.

46:41These aren't depth pieces. These are the rotational guys start without Micah Parsons for the first however many weeks of the season.

46:47I'm holding out hope that maybe you can motivate yourself because everybody's writing you off without number one.

46:52But I'm open to Van Ness taking a step to my guy.

46:55And he did look a little bit better towards the end of last year.

46:59I'm open still. Wyatt could do some heavy lifting for you if he looks right after the injury.

47:04I think to me, if there's any sort of optimism, it is that like if the D tackle room is healthier and

47:10Wyatt is playing at a relatively high level, maybe you get anything from the third round pick Chris McClellan.

47:16And I think Javon Hargrave, even though the Vikings cut him like he's still a fine NFL starter.

47:21The Vikings were just like in a financial. He was very expensive.

47:24He was an expensive player. Just financially, they could not keep him.

47:27He might be your best pass rusher on the team right now without Micah.

47:31And so if they are just like a regular D tackle room with some explosive pop to them instead of like, again,

47:37at certain stretches last year, like one of the worst in the NFL to a point where it was kind of unplayable.

47:44That alone might help lift this thing. I still think I'm pretty worried about the edge room as well.

47:49But like just pass rush period. Yeah, that's what I'm worried about is just pass rush period.

47:54And that's what I'm watching. Like what does Jonathan Gannon do over the first five or six weeks or whenever Micah Parsons is going to get back?

48:01Like how do you get by because even if you look at all the different things Jonathan Gannon has done at these

48:07stops, and I think the weirdness of the Cardinals defense is a Rick Nick Ross thing.

48:12Right. That is a Jonathan Gannon in a way that I've always appreciated has a real had a real humility about how

48:18he handled that situation where even as a defensive minded head coach, he's like, you're the defensive coordinator.

48:23This is your vision. I'm going to let you see this through.

48:26I don't think we'll see people trying to take like Arizona stuff and pasting it out to what the Packers are going to do.

48:33I don't think a lot of that stuff is going to happen.

48:36But even as you think about the different executions he's had in Philly and Arizona, he's never been a blitzer.

48:42Jonathan Gannon defense in either of those stops has never blitzed on more than 24 and a half percent of dropbacks, which is a below average rate.

48:50Even when they were blitzing in Philly, it was a lot of just really standard five man front rushes.

48:55It's not a lot of guys off the ball.

48:57In 2022, his last year in Philadelphia, among 104 off ball linebackers with at least 10 pass rush snaps, Kaiser White and

49:04TJ Edwards ranked 101st and 104th and how often they were rushing the passer.

49:07That can't happen. No. In order to survive over this time before you get Micah Parsons back, you're going to have to be more aggressive.

49:14We saw him doing it in the preseason. That's going to have to happen.

49:18And I think the player I'm most interested in, in this entire defense, in that span before Micah comes back, is Edron Cooper.

49:25I knew you were going to say that. Because he becomes, I think by far, the most explosive dynamic player that you have in the front seven.

49:32How do you weaponize that guy as a pass rusher on the edge in as many ways as you can?

49:38Because if you do not fully unlock him before Micah Parsons gets back, you cannot realize an even slightly dangerous version of this defense.

49:45No. And like you should be sending him a lot.

49:47Like I think he's pretty good at that. I think that there's a chance he can still develop in coverage, but it's still not his best suit.

49:55Like you don't necessarily. Let's do that later. Yeah.

49:58That'll be a 2027 project. Yes, exactly. And I will say before the DT room completely exploded, he looked really good last season.

50:04And then like, again, he was playing with like guys who were probably on the practice squad beforehand.

50:09And so I think if the D tackle room in front of him can look good and you get them like, oh,

50:15just opening up some holes for him to be able to fit against the run.

50:19And if they want to use these guys like Hargrave and Wyatt are so explosive that if you want to do some

50:26run game stunts and just do some funky stuff that way, Cooper's the perfect player to send behind them because he will get into the backfield.

50:33So they do have enough explosive pop here that doing some more interesting stuff than maybe Gannon has done before.

50:38I do think would go a long way for them.

50:41What is keeping you up at night, Derek, about the 2026 Green Bay Packers?

50:45The two position groups outside of quarterback that give up the worst plays on a football field.

50:50The floor creating position groups are the offensive line and cornerbacks.

50:53I do not feel good about the offensive line and the cornerbacks on this football team.

50:57In terms of pressure allowed season by season since Jordan Love has been the starting quarterback.

51:0230.3% in 2023. Pretty good. 34.5% in 2024. A little bit worse, but still pretty good.

51:0640.9% last year. And there have been slight tick-ups in his time to throw.

51:10But even if you adjust for that and do only plays of over 2.5 seconds to throw, last year was still their worst mark.

51:17And then they're going into this year with, I think Jaeger Burden might start at left guard for them, potentially.

51:23It's going to be Banks. Okay. If he's available.

51:25Yeah, it's going to be Banks. He's just consistently hurt.

51:28But I think the plan is for Aaron Banks to be the starting left guard.

51:32I have more to say on that in a minute.

51:35Which, I mean, he's not been good even when he's been in the lineup, really.

51:39And right guard might be, is it Belton? Is it Jacob Monk?

51:42Jacob Monk. Who has been a backup center who I think is a little bit small and not very strong to really

51:49move people around in the run game as a guard.

51:51At least especially looked that way, I thought, in the preseason.

51:55And now some of the guys that they're starting week one, like Sean Ryan, for example, he played well for them last year.

52:01But he came off the bench to do so at times over the last couple of seasons.

52:06So now the fact that he's your week one starter.

52:08It's what we talked about. Like, you're just picking away at your depth a little bit.

52:13Zach Bacoboile has not really been healthy this preseason.

52:15And he's supposed to be your anchor, your best guy.

52:18And I think that's part of the thought process of making Belton the swing tackle rather than having him get reps at guard.

52:25Is that you're going to have to potentially plan for Bacoboile missing time.

52:28And you want to make sure you have a capable option there.

52:32Totally. And so I think that was probably the tiebreaker with, well, if we think that Monk and Belton are essentially like

52:38a 50-50 proposition, why don't we just let Belton get the reps at tackle?

52:42So if we're put into that spot, we don't feel like we're getting caught with our pants down.

52:47And that does make sense. But like, either the two things you feel best about on this offensive line are either Sean

52:53Ryan, who again was a backup last year, or Jordan Morgan, who has not like consistently played left tackle in the NFL yet.

52:59And so I know first round pick pedigree and all that stuff.

53:03But the fact that that's the starting point for the offensive line, I'm concerned.

53:07The corners, bear with me because this stat is a little bit specific, but six plus air yards.

53:12So we're not talking about the under five yards, like no cover zone for guys.

53:16Yeah. Wide receiver targets. So again, like not tight ends running to the flat and outside the numbers.

53:21So these are like the corner is responsible for what's happening here.

53:24The Packers were 30th in EPA per drop back last year.

53:27Only the Titans and the Cowboys were worse. Their corners are not good.

53:31And part of that is the pass rush couldn't get home.

53:34And so maybe that helps solve things a little bit.

53:37But I still think that this is a corner room that I have some concerns about.

53:41How would that help solve things? We just said we don't trust the pass rush.

53:46I guess if Micah gets back at some point, like it can get better.

53:50But yeah, if that's the other thing, if the pass rush, we don't feel good about it.

53:54I have questions about the corner because the pass rush didn't look that good, especially without Micah last year.

54:00This just feels like a team where I still believe in the best of it and like the quarterback and all that stuff.

54:06And I do think that when Micah comes back, the front can be decent.

54:10The floor stuff on this team is like kind of scary to me.

54:14I'm worried about the run game was the engine of this offense for so long.

54:18Yeah. And I think that this conversation about letting Jordan Love really kind of take hold of this thing, let him sling the ball around.

54:25It all sounds good. And I think without Josh Jacobs, which he hasn't really talked about, removing Josh Jacobs from this thing,

54:31I think people are like, oh, there'll be so much more pass heavy.

54:35And that makes sense to a degree. Part of the reason they're so run heavy is that it creates a floor for the offensive line.

54:42You don't want this group dropping back to pass 45 times a game and putting them in those scenarios.

54:47And so even in a world where it's Marshawn Lloyd and Caleb Johnson for an indeterminate amount of time, I still don't

54:53think Matt LeFleur wants to throw the ball 40 times a game because that's not what you want to do to this group.

54:59And so if you aren't willing to do that because you're not willing to have that be the construction of your offense

55:06and you're a sub 40% rushing success rate team, which absolutely could happen without Josh Jacobson with this offensive line.

55:11What sort of situations are you putting your team in?

55:14That stuff we were talking about with the passing game.

55:17Can you enjoy the fruits of that if so much of the other foundational pieces of the offense are a little bit shaky?

55:23Like that to me is where things get maybe a little bit worrisome about an offense that for the most part, you

55:29can set your watch to them being a top six unit.

55:32Segues perfectly into what's keeping me awake at night.

55:35What if Jordan Love is this year's CJ Stroud?

55:38What if we just outlined all that to me?

55:40I think that I even I think LeFleur in the scope position talents too good.

55:44But even with the offensive line stuff, I think LeFleur in the scope position talents too good.

55:49Let's go through this. So we just outlined all of the shit that could be bad about this.

55:54And for the record, I mean, statistically, not even editorializing, argue with your mom.

55:58Statistically, Jordan Love is a top five or six quarterback in the league over the time that he's been a starter.

56:04He's really, really good. And I think that is a big reason why you just kind of inherently trust that this is going to be OK.

56:11I think I agree with you for the most part, but let's just go through this again.

56:16I bulleted it all out. LeFleur said on September 1st, though, that's Tuesday.

56:19It's Wednesday right now. He said Zach Bacco, Buelli and Aaron Banks.

56:23He doesn't know if they can play full games yet.

56:26So it's impossible for him to set the depth chart.

56:28He's also so doom and gloom. Well, he does.

56:31He does a great job of making me feel the same way.

56:34A lot of coaches who are just like there are some coaches where everything is rosy all the time.

56:40It's all going to work out. And then whatever that that is, that is Matt LeFleur.

56:44Good morning, Matt. What's so good about it? Precisely.

56:47It's exactly right. OK, to Derek's point, even if you're right about that, Aaron Banks hasn't been good when he's been available.

56:53Jordan Morgan, your left tackle has never consistently played there.

56:56Hoping like hell for Tucker Craft. But he's coming off of a major knee injury.

57:00The receivers are exciting. I can also just give you the flip side of that coin where they're all terrifying for durability and production reasons.

57:07Like that's very real. Josh Jacobs might not play at all this year, depending on how this goes.

57:12The allegations are incredibly serious and should probably prompt you to ask questions about his future in football, period.

57:17So if this isn't like a waiting for Josh Jacobs in five or six weeks thing, and you're playing the whole year

57:23with those running backs behind a shaky offensive line, you're telling me there's no world where Jordan Love could be valiantly trying

57:29to chuck this team into games and falling short regularly and getting his ass kicked in a couple of primetime games.

57:35And people on TV on Monday morning are saying, I told you this guy sucks.

57:40I told you Jordan Love's not good. That feels so possible.

57:43You paint a compelling case. Even if it's hard for me to fully embrace, you paint a compelling picture.

57:48I think it would be hard for it to look like as bad as the Texas stuff.

57:53But the idea that like that's how we think about it, where it's just like this quarterback ends up taking the blame

57:59for like 8 million other infrastructure problems. It's super smart people like us and the wonderful people that download this podcast.

58:05The people who listen to this podcast are smart.

58:07We are not. After doing our windspool draft, there's no way we're smart.

58:11But smart people are going to know that Jordan Love is better than that.

58:15But are we going to have to listen to nine months of dialogue about whether he's worth a shit?

58:20It's a good point. I think it is a valid concern and it keeps me awake.

58:25One thing I wanted to say before I move on to mine.

58:28We did not mention Brandon Cissé's name. They are really excited about Brandon Cissé.

58:32Are they? He's athletically like what you want. Really, really excited about Brandon Cissé.

58:36So if you're trying to build a case for where the cornerback room can be better, I think having him as one

58:42of them, I think it's going to be him and Nixon.

58:45Like when it's all said and done. And now you make Carrington Valentine depth and St.

58:49Juice played well last year. If St. Juice is your fourth outside corner, your third outside corner, I do think overall that

58:56room is in better shape than it was a year ago.

58:59That's what I will say. Cissé being a find in the second round quickly would be such a huge.

59:04They are really excited about Brandon Cissé. Whether that actually comes to fruition or not, no idea.

59:09But I can tell you that they are really optimistic about that.

59:12So I think the cornering room can be improved.

59:15You took yours wide. I'm going to take mine even wider.

59:18Mine is like big picture franchise consideration type stuff.

59:20What's keeping me up at night is after the playoff run in 2023, it felt like this team was playing with house money.

59:27They were ahead of schedule. They were so young.

59:29Who are we also saying that about after that season?

59:32Hit me. The Los Angeles Rams. After the 23 season.

59:35Both teams had overachieved. That were just better than we expected.

59:38Like, man, I just didn't expect this type of season from these teams.

59:41Where are the Rams and Packers in comparison to each other right now?

59:45Well, the Rams, if they don't win the Super Bowl, it would be a crime.

59:49The Rams are Super Bowl favorites. I'd be the best roster in the league.

59:53This Packers team feels more fragile than it has at any point in the last three years.

59:58Even if you paint the optimistic picture of why they can still be good, more stuff has to go right.

60:04They are thinner in a lot of these positions.

60:06It is a, well, if this doesn't work out, then we're in trouble.

60:10Jordan Morgan, Matthew Golden, Lucas Van Ness. All of these things that used to be depth, bolstering pieces are now things that have to go right.

60:17And it might. But if it doesn't, just think about how different the tone, the feeling is now compared to what it

60:23felt like three years ago as the other team that was in that spot is now potentially on the doorstep of trying to win the Super Bowl.

60:31So that's what would be keeping me up at night.

60:34Just how much less exciting it feels now compared to what it felt like back then.

60:38The funny thing is, one of my first thoughts when you said that was, well, look at all the crazy trades the Rams are willing to do.

60:46Well, the Packers traded for Micah Parsons. It's terrible luck that he's not available and that's not their fault.

60:51But like they were willing to take swings to get on that level and they feel further from that level than they

60:57have at any point in the last few years.

61:00What does success look like for the Green Bay Packers, Derek?

61:03This division, I think, makes it as hard as anything.

61:05I don't know. Like, I honestly think I don't know.

61:08Win the division. Win the NFC North. If you do not, how is that a success with this team at this stage

61:14based on everything that I just said? That's a good point because they've been the seventh seed, what, three years in a row?

61:21They have not won the division in five years.

61:232021 was the last time they won the division.

61:26Win the f***ing division. Yeah. I think the only reason it makes me hesitant is like everybody in the division can do it.

61:32Sure. But like you should be. Yeah, that makes it more realistic.

61:36Yeah. I said it would be nice to be better than the seventh seed for a change.

61:40Like if they are the five seed and they just narrowly miss winning the division.

61:45You guys are, you have no ambition. We're just cowards.

61:47Well, I think I'm burned by last year saying like you better make the Super Bowl.

61:52Is it crazy that Matt LaFleur coming off a contract extension in year eight could win the NFC North?

61:57No, absolutely not. No, you're right. That should be their aspiration.

62:00It should be their aspiration. This team is just weird for me to get a handle on.

62:05I will say. I'm not picking them to do it, by the way.

62:09This is not like unfound Packers enthusiasm. This is a what is success?

62:12What do you have to do? No, I mean, they call it title town for God's sake.

62:17That literally was a joke that they're making up there.

62:20They don't call it. I can't remember. God, what was it?

62:23Schneidman said it on the thing. It was like, yeah, we don't call it.

62:27And yeah, we don't call it NFC North title town.

62:30It's title town. And so it's an EPA per play town.

62:33Yes. That's not what it is. Seahawks like hang the DVOA.

62:36That's exactly. Okay. You convinced me. I mean, if they make the playoffs, I'm not going to be mad at them, but

62:42they should aspire to win the division. All right, guys, before we get to the Bears preview, let's take our second quick break.

62:48Let's get to the Chicago Bears. Our preview for the 2026 Chicago Bears.

62:52They're off season in 60 seconds. Sign Kobe Bryant.

62:55How'd that go? Cam Lewis, Xavier Woods, Devin Bush, Neville Gallimore, traded for Garrett Bradbury, lost Tremade Edmonds, traded DJ Moore, traded

63:01Jervon Dexter, traded or not traded, lost Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Nashawn Wright, Durham Smythe, Andrew Billings, and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in free agency.

63:07In the draft, Dylan Thienemann in the first round, Logan Jones, Sam Rauch, Xavier Thomas, Malik Muhammad, and Jordan Vandenberg.

63:13Again, mentioning both of them because they might be involved in this thing pretty quick.

63:17What are you most excited about, Derek, as it relates to the 2026 Chicago Bears?

63:21It's the Caleb Williams show. And let me, I'm just going to leave this.

63:25We've talked a lot about him. I'm going to say my favorite Caleb Williams set that exists at this point.

63:31And I don't even know if it means anything.

63:33I just love it because it looks cool. There are four games in the last decade in which a quarterback threw 40

63:39passes, at least 40 of them traveled 15 yards, and that quarterback won the game.

63:44Honorable. Extremely honorable. Aaron Rodgers did it in 2019 against the Lions.

63:47Patrick Mahomes did it twice in 2019. So, mind you, 2019 when offense was like juice.

63:51Yeah. We were playing a fake game at that point.

63:54But guess what? Ben Johnson's playing a fake game every week.

63:57Exactly. The other game is 2025 Caleb Williams in the wild card game, his first playoff game ever against the rival Green Bay Packers.

64:04That quarterback is f***ing awesome. That game was so crazy, man.

64:07I mind just expanding it to the offense in general.

64:10Like, I'm on record about this. I, there's a lot of consternation about the overall quality of this team.

64:15We'll get into why. I'm on record saying the offense has a monstrous ceiling.

64:19Monstrous. They may not reach it, but the ceiling for this team, if things click into place, is astronomical.

64:24From week five on last season, I said this on the offensive draft show, might as well say it again.

64:30Fourth in explosive play rate. Fourth in EPA per play.

64:33Seventh in offensive success rate. First in EPA per rush.

64:36First in rushing success rate. From week five on the past four years, Ben Johnson's offenses have ranked no lower than sixth in EPA per play.

64:43That's crazy. That's insane to me. Pretty good. We have a play caller who has shown a consistent ability to produce these

64:49sorts of results with a group of players that while still young and still needs to take a step collectively, has just new clear potential.

64:56I mean, like the combination of Luther Burden, Colson Loveland, Roma Dunzee healthy and Caleb Williams combined with this running game.

65:02We say the sky is the limit sometimes, and we don't really mean it.

65:06The sky is the limit. Whether they get there, I do not know, but I am excited to watch them try.

65:12I can't wait to see specifically the skill players.

65:14And much like Jordan Love with his receivers, it's so contingent on Caleb continuing to be good and hopefully getting better.

65:20We will talk about it. But, and we, you know, I think the first time you said it, I know Colson Loveland was good.

65:27I know he was good last year, but like the first time you said he might already be like a top five tight end.

65:33I kind of, I like side-eyed you a little bit.

65:36The numbers completely back that up in like whatever way you want to take it, like pull up the metric.

65:42The only guys that were consistently in front of Colson Loveland when you're looking at tight ends and what they produced last year are Kittle and Trey McBride.

65:50And in some cases, even they aren't in front of him.

65:53Like he really was that good last year. I'll be it in a smaller sample size, but still there's so much reason for excitement.

66:00Luther burden, same, but to a lesser degree, like Colson Loveland's.

66:03They're different conversations to me. The burden thing is still far more theoretical projection.

66:07The Loveland thing is, is already real. Colson Loveland.

66:09It feels so real. And by the way, the only thing where he wasn't on top of the position was target share.

66:15He only got 15% of the bears targets do that from week 10 on though.

66:19It's like 24%. It's back after the season. Keep it up.

66:22Yeah. Keep it up. Let's do that. I think it will.

66:26Because like once he got in the lineup, they were like, that guy's insane.

66:29He is the most important piece of the passing game.

66:32Yeah. He just is. It's, this is one of those things that I've just said it with a lot of, in a

66:38matter of fact way, all off season, but just, it's just because I believe it.

66:43Like he's the best player in the passing game.

66:45Yep. He is going to be the centerpiece of what they do offensively.

66:49He's the most important and best player. And you already see it.

66:52And when you watch, not even just, we said this yesterday, he was second in EPA per target among all tight ends last season behind George Kittle.

67:00Second. But even beyond the quality of the targets and the quality of the workload, the ways that they're using him, he's

67:06closer to Brock Bowers than he is to the field.

67:09Oh yes. Absolutely. When it comes to deployment and just the things that he can do.

67:13And that happened in the back half of his rookie season where he didn't have an early part of the season because he was hurt.

67:20The guy's going to be really good. I firmly believe that.

67:23I'm giddy about the opportunity to watch these guys.

67:26And that doesn't even include Roma Dunze and what he could potentially be.

67:29Like, I mean, there's just so much reason to be excited about what this offense can do.

67:34And that's the thing. All of these skill play, like including the quarterback, Caleb Williams, first overall pick.

67:39Roma Dunze was what? The eighth overall pick. Colson Loveland was what?

67:42Tenth. And I know Luther Burton went a little bit later, but like, if not for his last season at Missouri being

67:49kind of weird, he was a top half of the first round.

67:52He was talked about as a much higher. People thought he was wider receiver one, potentially going into that.

67:57For much of his college career. He is. Yeah.

68:00And so the fact that it is that level of talent with, again, a play caller who is like, at minimum, the

68:06fifth or sixth best offense he's going to print out of it.

68:09Like it's, I don't see how you could not get excited about this offense being, insane.

68:14So let's, that brings me to what I'm watching the first month of the season.

68:18How much crisper does this thing feel overall? Because that is still the thing that needs to happen.

68:23We can talk about the potential and we can talk about the explosiveness.

68:27We can talk about the talent. All we want.

68:29This thing needs to be smoother than it was a year ago for us to realize the benefits of whatever this is.

68:35You look at it last year, just very plainly and clear per next gen.

68:39Caleb Williams was 22nd in passing success rate last season.

68:42He finished behind Tua, Bo Nix, Michael Penix, Jacoby Percet to some of those names.

68:46That stat is not an end all be all.

68:49They were much higher in things like EPA per, EPA per target or just EPA per drop back.

68:54The explosive play rate is obviously huge. They are hunting explosive plays.

68:57They are, they don't want to be a team that is just staying ahead of the sticks consistently.

69:02But even with that in mind, even if it's only one stat, you feel that when you watch them.

69:08The inconsistency is incredibly real. And it was for a million different reasons.

69:11We talked about this at length when we were doing the Caleb Williams conversation on the lingering question show.

69:16This is a product of so many different things.

69:19He had 42 throwaways last year, which led the NFL 29 drops, which is third in the NFL.

69:24The amount of contested 50, 50 bang, bang plays that did not get completed last year.

69:29That could have been because Rome isn't a hundred percent, whatever.

69:32It's just messier than it needs to be. And I think the quarterback's ball placement is a huge part of that, but

69:38there are other elements to it as well. We've heard all summer.

69:41If you've been paying attention to this team, the command, the control, the comfort level compared to a year ago, when it

69:47felt like they were all drowning in training camp.

69:50Let me see it. Show it to me. Have this thing feel clean, clean and crisp and refined in a way that it did not last year.

69:57Unlock all the stuff that we're talking about. That's what I'm watching over the first month of the season, because if that

70:04stuff can get ironed out, boy, I doubt the bears will ever look like a peak lions offense because Caleb doesn't, you

70:10don't want Caleb to play that way anyway. Like you want to hunt the explosives.

70:14You want Caleb to play past three and a half seconds.

70:17When it makes sense. The lions are an explosive offense.

70:20They're an explosive offense in a very different way.

70:22They're a ball distribution, explosive office. Having said that though, no, my God, would it be fun to see them flirt with

70:28the level of efficiency that the good lions offenses have had.

70:31And I like, you can marry those two things.

70:34I think it is, it is a challenge with what Caleb and Nately brings as somebody who should be extending plays, but it's definitely possible.

70:41We talked about this with the other, this is the last one.

70:44I'll say talking about the off target rate and some of the accuracy numbers.

70:48And just the idea of Caleb Williams as a creator, their creation, the creation part of the offense last year, the scramble

70:54drill part of the offense last year was objectively so bad.

70:58It was bad. And it's a number I brought up for the summer as a scrambler on, as a pastor last year.

71:04So just scrambled attempts, 20 of 59, 30 and a half percent success rate on those plays per next gen, negative 0.14

71:10EPA per play, 60.3, 63.4% completion rate in structure last year, 20 of 59 when scrambling.

71:14So if they, if the variance on extended plays shifts back into their favor this year, this idea that Caleb Williams is

71:20like this crazy play merchant or all this stuff is happening out of structure is just incorrect.

71:25Like that didn't happen last year. It's like a matter of like remembering very specific moments because the best ones are like insane.

71:32Like that play in the playoffs happened. Yes. There weren't that many of those during the regular season.

71:37And so if that stuff can start to happen a little bit more, if you're getting the positive end of that variance,

71:43in out of structure moments, that's another area where again, the offense can just feel a little bit more consistent because so

71:49many of those plays ended in frustrating incompletions where you're punting the ball on third and eight last year.

71:54And even a lot of them too. Caleb Williams threw the ball away a lot.

71:59Like there were just a lot of plays. Yes.

72:01Where he would get out to throwaways last year.

72:04Yeah. He would get outside the pocket and just be like, ah, play's dead.

72:07And it's like, if we can turn those into five yard scrambles, five yard completions here and there, even not getting to the scramble part.

72:14Yeah. If you don't have to do that, yes.

72:17To me is the refinement and crispness that I'm talking about.

72:20Yeah. In the first two and a half seconds of a play, more of that this year is how this thing takes a step forward.

72:27Yeah. I'm sorry. I'm, I'm really monopolizing the bears conversation here.

72:30It was kind of going to be inevitable. Let it all out.

72:33Derek, what are you watching the first month of the season with the Chicago bears?

72:38I mean, yeah, it's, it's to me is in the same category, but like, to me, I think sometimes when we're thinking

72:44about like offensive or defensive play callers, it's like, what's the evolution?

72:47Because like you're itching because maybe they need it.

72:50Like Ben Johnson, I trust that something will come and like, whether it's going to happen.

72:54It's what it's going to be. This is like a, I'm, this is, it is.

72:58He, he, this is where, you know, he's in Sean McVay territory.

73:02Every year going through a Sean McVay season. It's not about like, they need to iterate.

73:06How are they going to fix this? It's like, man, they're going to do something awesome.

73:11Like, what is it going to be? And with Ben Johnson, I'm like, man, they're going to do something really cool.

73:17I want to see what it's going to be.

73:19And so I really don't even have a hunch as to what that might mean.

73:23You know, they, they draft Sam Rauch. Maybe they think he can give them a little bit more with some of the three tight end stuff.

73:31And they're a little bit, they're a little bit less deep at wide receiver.

73:34So maybe they would want to do some of that, but like whatever it's going to be, I'm incredibly excited to see it.

73:41I think we're going to see a lot of that because Rauch just gives you, even if he's a young player and

73:47it's going to take a little while for him to come along, you can really streamline his role early on.

73:53And I think right now it's still, it's probably their second best personnel group after the 12.

73:57And they're, they're 12. We've talked about this is unlike almost any other 12 in the league right now.

74:03When you, when you compare like very few 12 personnel teams have two guys who are capable pass catchers and capable blockers.

74:09It's what Buffalo wishes they were. That's exactly right.

74:11Yeah. That's exactly right. It would that it, the idea of what Buffalo wanted with Kincaid has come to fruition.

74:17Like Colston Loveland is Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.

74:20Yes. And then they also have Dawson Knox. Yes.

74:22We already have a Dawson. Dave, what are you watching the first month of the season with the Chicago bears?

74:28I should probably let this go. Cause I do trust Ben Johnson, but it's worth bringing up.

74:32It's worth bringing up. I'm just going to keep a close eye on the offensive line and make sure that you, that

74:39we don't, that we're not missing something by hand waving this away.

74:42Because right now I think Braxton Jones is the week one left tackle.

74:46Unless Ozzy Trapilo really does make the fastest recovery from a patellar tendon tear in the history of mankind.

74:51I assume like that happened in the wild card game and he's on the roster, right?

74:55Like, yeah, he's not even on pop. He's not on.

74:58I see him right here. I'm Braxton Jones on our list.

75:01He was like, yeah, we're, you know, we're hoping for the best.

75:05I'm like, how is this happening? So I'm keeping an eye on that.

75:08And then I do, I, I've said this before.

75:11I really admire the job that they did acquiring Gary Bradbury.

75:14I still think he's, he's not as good as Drew Dahlman.

75:17And I think, you know, how you adjust the menu and tune the dials of like what you want to call, particularly in the run game.

75:24Cause he like, he's not a, a mover and a displacer.

75:27Like he's not a displacer. Yes. I mean, that's the thing is when I say mover, I mean like people mover, pushing people off the line.

75:35So how do you call that to suit his skillset?

75:37Although the main thing I want to share here is the fact that I laughed out loud when I pulled up Garrett Bradbury's mock draftable draft prospect profile.

75:45Do you know who his closest comp is? It's Logan Jones, isn't it?

75:49It's Drew Dahlman. Oh yeah. Yes. They have a, they have a, they have a type.

75:53No, they, this fact that they like drew Dahlman retired and they were like, where can we get Drew Dahlman and brought him in?

76:00They have a type. I think it's going to work, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be looking at it.

76:06I have less concern about the healthy version of the offensive line.

76:09I think that Bradbury can be 80% of what you got from Dahlman last year.

76:13I think they can hide the left tackle because they had two last year.

76:17Yeah, they already did it. They had two last concept and it Brexton Jones looked shaky.

76:22My caveman brain will not allow me to just say left tackle doesn't matter.

76:25I can't get there. You can hide it. And they did last year all season.

76:30You're right. It was Braxton Jones. It was Theo Bennett.

76:32And then it was Ozzy Trapillo. Ozzy Trapillo was not good last year.

76:36It's still not. It's still not better. Yes. He was the best of bad collection options.

76:41I, that part of it, I trust our ability to do it.

76:44Braxton Jones doesn't look good in the preseason. You're not giving help to the left tackle in the preseason.

76:49Right. In the way you're going to, when you have to game plan things, if the left, if the line says healthy, I think it'll be okay.

76:57My concern is if guys start getting hurt in ways they didn't last year, what does that do to the offense?

77:03You were on the positive side of offensive line injury luck last season.

77:06Dolman, Thune, Jonah Jackson, and Darnell Wright missed a combined one game last year.

77:10All four of them played a thousand snaps. That probably isn't going to happen again.

77:14And so if we're trying to figure out reasons amid all of this optimism with the skill town and Ben Johnson and

77:21everything else about why there could be some regression for the offense, the offensive line health luck from last year is what I would point to.

77:28No part of me believed that Logan Jones would take Garrett Bradbury's job off the rip, but it sure is nice to have him there.

77:35That part is nice. Everything else is, even though they do have seven left tackles.

77:39So if the left tackle gets hurt, seven to play one, you're not, none of those guys, Theo Bennett, it isn't replacing what you got in Darnell Wright.

77:47No, that, that, that's not happening. Who is also, we haven't mentioned him yet.

77:51He's also a difference maker when you're talking about the explosiveness of this offense.

77:55All right, let's change the tone of this. What is keeping you up at night, Dave, about the Chicago bears?

78:00It is. Is it a side of the ball?

78:03We have not yet mentioned up to this point in the preview.

78:06You're probably thinking we're planning the Superbowl route through downtown Chicago.

78:09Um, every single thing about the bears defense, not only nightmare fuel, not only keeps me awake at night, but drastically alters my opinion of this team.

78:17Like I could talk for another 30 minutes about all the things I can't wait to see about this offense.

78:22I'm terrified of the defense. I assume it's going to be bad.

78:26Kyler Gordon is officially on pup. And by the way, everyone in the building seems to hate him.

78:31I don't know what's going on there. It's a very strange situation.

78:34Kobe Bryant, you already mentioned Cam Lewis is your starting nickel.

78:37I do think that for a mid August signing, you could do a lot worse than Xavier Woods, but he's hurt.

78:43Is he? He's up. Yes. They're in a spot now.

78:46I was going to say Xavier Woods is a nice mid August signing, but you don't want to be making mid August signings.

78:52If you have real aspirations to do something, we're in a spot now with the bears where, because Xavier Woods has been banged up throughout training camp.

79:00It sounds like they might have to start Cam Lewis at safety and have Malik Muhammad, who was their fourth round pick started nickel.

79:07Cam Lewis has played less than 300 and safety snaps combined over the past three seasons.

79:11He was like a nickel in dime looks player for the bills.

79:14So this entire thing is just unsettlingly unstable in, in so many different areas.

79:18We talk about the, what's keeping you up at night thing is like a theoretical thing for most of these teams.

79:24This is literally what is for you. This is close to home.

79:28And mine is like, I just don't know if the defense has the horses at all, man.

79:32Just imagining like Robert's wife comes downstairs at some like, shaking.

79:35He's just like doing the dishes at 2am. Just like gray Jarrett.

79:39What are we going to do? The only part of that that's not true is I don't do the dishes in my house.

79:45But I would be, it's when I'm taking out the trash, just muttering to myself, just being like, Oh my God, Dio, Neville Gallimore.

79:52There's, there's no, there's no piece of this unit that really excites me.

79:56I guess what you told me before we started recording, like if Jalen Johnson is the guy I remember, that's exciting.

80:01And that could go a long way towards stabilizing this thing.

80:05The problem is the entire, and my, my, what's mine is the same as you guys.

80:09Like the, the defense is a house of cards that could come crashing down at any moment.

80:14That's, as to why this could be a better defense this year was health in the secondary and improvements in the secondary.

80:20It was getting Kobe Bryant. It was Kyler Gordon coming back healthy and Jalen Johnson coming back healthy.

80:25If you only have one of those three, how can you possibly feel good about where this is?

80:30You can't. And this to me, even in the best case scenario of all that stuff had come to be, you're still worried about the pass rush.

80:38This team last year finished dead last in quick pressure rate when bringing four dead last.

80:42That's partially a Dennis Allen stat. It's partially the way their defensive lines play in more of a react attack sort of way.

80:48But even when you consider that they finished dead last two years in a row before Dennis Allen even got there in quick pressure rate when bringing four.

80:56The pass rush was not good last season. You're banking on some combination of Dio coming back and Austin Booker saving you.

81:02The fact that we're just obsessed with a sixth round defensive tackle because of how little hope there is with so many

81:09of the other defensive front pieces speaks to where this team is right now.

81:13And overall, other bigger picture stuff, plus 22 in the turnover differential last year.

81:16104 total EPA on turnovers. 20 more than the next best team.

81:20They were seventh in EPA per play on third down last season.

81:23Behind only Seattle, Minnesota, Denver, the Rams, Patriots, and the Eagles.

81:26They were 10th worst in EPA per play on early downs.

81:29Fifth worst success rate. Third down is volatile. Third down and turnovers are volatile.

81:33Those are the only two things that sustained this team last year.

81:37This is a product of multiple just wasted years in the offseason on defense.

81:40The top 100 picks on defense of the Ryan Poles era.

81:44Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Brisker, Javon Dexter, Tyreek Stevenson, Zach Pickens, Shamar Turner.

81:47The free agent signings with at least $10 million guaranteed of the Ryan Poles era on defense.

81:52Grady Jarrett, Dio O'Dangbo, Tremaine Edmonds, Yannick Ngakwe, Demarcus Walker.

81:54Impressive, man. It's pretty bleak. This is what keeps me up at night.

81:58That is like that sort of hit rate would.

82:01I mean, that would get you demoted in the MLB.

82:03Like that is terrible. I know this doesn't really.

82:06Ben Johnson has helped a lot. He's doing a lot of lifting here.

82:10I know this doesn't really matter because turnovers are mostly about luck and variance and bounces of the ball.

82:15I do think it's interesting that. This is the Al Harris point.

82:18Well, Al Harris is good at coaching DBs to get pissed.

82:21Yes. He better be because they led. I mean, they led the league in takeaways.

82:26They led the league in interceptions. They had 23.

82:2819 of them are gone. The guys who caught those footballs left.

82:31Yeah. So we'll find out just how good Al Harris is at this.

82:35I mean, he's got a track record, but somebody's got to step up and get these footballs.

82:40This was a 10-year situation with Kobe Bryant and Kyler Gordon.

82:43Mm-hmm. Now it's worrisome. Like at this stage, which position group do you feel best about?

82:47Is it linebacker in which you're hoping for TJ Edwards to be healthy and Devin Bush to have not been like a one-year flash in the fan?

82:55I'm a DeMarco Jackson guy, so no. Who is coming off the bench.

82:59Yeah. Who is good off the bench. You can't feel good about most of it.

83:03Like maybe the defensive line can be better this year.

83:06Maybe Grady Jarrett's healthier. A Fandenberg can give you something.

83:08Again, Dio and Austin Booker did not play together last year.

83:11This is the most cope shit ever. Like trying to talk yourself into that.

83:15Better to what end? Yeah. To be like the 21st best defensive line in the ball?

83:20You just can't feel good about that. You just can't feel good about it.

83:24Do you and all your Bears fans, friends, and family, do you feel like a monkey's paw sort of situation where you

83:30used to pray to like a photo of Walter Payton for a good offense?

83:34Yes. And now you have it and this defense is going to make the monsters of the midway roll in their grave?

83:40Be careful what you wish for, baby. That's where we are with the 2026 Chicago Bears.

83:44What is success for the 2026 Chicago Bears, Derek?

83:47I think you leave the sea. I'm a little bit less.

83:50I know that they won a lot of games last year.

83:53I'm not so much worried about the wins and losses for this team.

83:57I think if you come out of it and you are certain that the young players on offense are like for the

84:03next five years, absolute dudes, including the quarterback. Obviously, I feel pretty good about this.

84:07As long as you don't win like seven games like you should be in the mix till the end at minimum.

84:13But like, I think if we all feel good that next like moving forward, Caleb Williams can be one of those dudes

84:19and one of Loveland Rome or Burden is like, holy shit, that guy's insane.

84:23We're good here. I've been consistent about this all year.

84:26Get more out of Caleb. Feel rock solid about the skill players when the season's over.

84:30I would say if that happens, you'll be in the playoff mix anyway.

84:34Exactly my thought. Right. But I don't really care.

84:36I don't care if this team makes the playoffs if that stuff happens.

84:40I my my guess and my expectation is that this is the most fun 500 ish team in the league and whether

84:46or not they make the playoffs is kind of immaterial.

84:49I'm glad you guys have said that because I wasn't sure where I was going to land on it because part of

84:55me does feel like it's kind of cowardly to be like, oh, it doesn't matter if they don't make the playoffs.

85:01I think exactly what you said is right. And I'll read verbatim what I wrote.

85:05The offense proves itself to be a machine you have to worry about for years to come.

85:10The quarterback's development being the key part of that.

85:13That's enough to get you a playoff spot. I don't know if it's enough to get you a playoff spot.

85:18It's enough to have you in the conversation. That's probably right.

85:21Yeah, that's probably more correct. I think it's more that when you go to the divisional round, the idea of not even

85:27being a wildcard team the next year, even if there's so much else to be excited about is a little bit depressing.

85:34It's a little bit of a letdown. But I think you guys are probably right.

85:38And the last part was you can convince yourself you can fix the defense next offseason.

85:42Yeah. Oh, my God. Which you theoretically will have more resources to do.

85:46Imagine the news cycles and talk shows in this city.

85:49If the Bears have the season we just described and then they can get some contracts off the book and spend on

85:55defense next year, this place is going to be insane with hopium.

85:58If they finish like 14th in offensive DVOA, I have to leave the country.

86:02That's true. Yeah, that would be bad. I think I think I have to quit the job.

86:07Go to that restaurant in Copenhagen you were talking about earlier.

86:10I honestly, if I stopped covering the NFL, I think I would just go live in Copenhagen.

86:15I think that's the only thing preventing me from living there.

86:18To the point that you made, lest it sound like we're letting the Bears off the hook.

86:23It's probably an organizational failure on Ryan Poles and the people that came before Ben Johnson's fault that they're not in a

86:29better position to take advantage of this. But I can't put that on the 2026 Chicago Bears like they are right up

86:35a lot over the last three or four years.

86:37But these are the cards you have right now.

86:40And if you come out of it feeling confident that Caleb is the guy, I think it's okay.

86:45Yeah. I mean, you have one more cheap year after this.

86:48Right? Maybe your next year is year four to get the most out of the rookie quarterback contract and some of the

86:54other rookie deals that you're working on. Right. Which like you always want to use that.

86:59But like if you come out of next season not caring at all what you end up paying him, huge win.

87:05Oh, that's to me. I would love the idea of when we get to the end of this year, there's not even

87:11a single bit of ambiguity about what he should be paid.

87:14That to me is another part of success. Yeah.

87:16Because right now there should be. He needs to take that step.

87:20There's a little bit of, yeah. We were, we're treating it as like a foregone conclusion a little bit that he's going to be that sort of guy.

87:27I need to see it and I want to see it.

87:31I believe it can be true, but that's been my, I've hauled that line the entire off season and I will continue to hold it.

87:38Let's get to the Minnesota Vikings. Our preview for the 2026 Minnesota Vikings.

87:41They're off season in 60 seconds. Hired Frank Smith as a senior offensive assistant, which I do think matters.

87:46Brought in Kyler Murray, Ryan Vandermark, James Pierre, Juwan Jennings.

87:49Lost Jonathan Allen, Jalen Naylor, Juwan Hargrave traded away Jonathan Grenard.

87:52In the draft, Caleb Banks in the first round, Jake Golday in the second round, Big Citrus, Dominique Orange in the third

87:59round, Caleb Tiernan in the third round, and Jacoby Thomas.

88:01Do we not say Harrison Smith? Also lost Harrison Smith.

88:04He is not a relinquished agent, which is why I forgot him.

88:07For now. Whatever's going on with him. We will talk about it.

88:11The games come around. What are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 Vikings, David?

88:16We finally get to unwrap the Kyler Murray mystery box.

88:19Been talking about this since. I was thinking about this this morning.

88:22We've probably been talking about it since November of last year.

88:25Like when the Cardinals benched Kyler and it was obvious that he was done in Arizona.

88:30That was when the first inkling that this could happen came into your brain.

88:33And then it obviously happened. And now we've had an entire offseason to sit on it.

88:38And we had a fun back and forth about this at our live show.

88:42The last time Kyler Murray started a full season, he was an above average NFL quarterback.

88:46He was actually one spot better in both EPA per play and success rate than Minnesota Vikings Sam Darnold, which is a

88:53very fitting place to start this whole conversation. If you combine 24 and 25, he still has a higher EPA per drop back than Sam Darnold.

89:00So even with last year's games. The fact that he's like not in his stratosphere isn't said to me.

89:05He was good in 2024. I mean, much like we talked about with Jacksonville a few days ago, the Cardinals were 6-2

89:11and trying to mess around and win the NFC West midway through that season.

89:15It fell apart in the second half, as it so often did with the Arizona Cardinals when Kyler Murray was there.

89:21Maybe that'll happen here, too. But to even have a quarterback that could get you to 6-2 and have you excited about

89:27the second half of the season would be nice after the year that the Vikings have been through.

89:32His numbers are really promising. In a decent but not great Arizona situation.

89:36Even if we can, and this will be part of the discussion, I think, this idea of Kevin O'Connell and the quarterback

89:42whisperer and everything else, and maybe us being a little bit more down on that idea than we were a year ago after the J.J.

89:49McCarthy thing. Even if Kevin O'Connell is 75% of what we made him out to be last offseason, with Kyler Murray, probably enough.

89:55Probably enough. Probably enough based on what we've seen from Kyler Murray.

89:59And like that probably is unfair to Kevin O'Connell.

90:01Like I think it's like J.J. McCarthy probably just wasn't good enough.

90:05Some guys can't be saved. Yes, some guys can't be saved.

90:08It's just going to be what it's going to be.

90:11And so I'm like, I think that this will turn out good.

90:14And I think like to build on what you're saying, like in the world where I think Kyler Murray will at least be playable.

90:21When Justin Jefferson has a playable quarterback, he is unbelievable.

90:23He is. Give me the stats. His average season before 2025.

90:27So this is including when he's a rookie and when he missed seven games in 2023.

90:3199 catches, 1480 yards and eight touchdowns. That is his average season.

90:34It makes me so happy that Justin Jefferson was complaining about losing clout last year.

90:39He was just like, everybody forgot I exist. He is the best example we have in recent memory of it only takes one year.

90:45The idea that you could have the first five years that Justin Jefferson had and then one year with a guy that

90:51was drafted in the first round that was immediately ejected from his from his job was enough for us to just be like, Justin Jefferson.

90:58Is he really that good anymore? Is insane. It's truly insane.

91:02We were having knockdown drag out fights about who was better between him and Jamar Chase.

91:06And it just completely ended because of one year where Jamar Chase continues to get to play with Joe Burrow.

91:12And we got JG McCarthy in Minneapolis. I know Joe Flacco played last year.

91:15I know that. This is not the takeaway from JSN at all.

91:19His season was incredible. But what Justin Jefferson's average is like a barely worse than what JSN did last year.

91:24As the offensive player of the year. To win the offensive player of the year.

91:29Justin Jefferson's pretty good. And I'm just excited to to see him feel free and like play like himself again because like the numbers are down.

91:36And part of that is his quarterback play just like not getting him the ball.

91:40He was clearly like frustrated. Oh, yeah. He was a miserable season himself.

91:44He's one of those guys that there is such a joy in the way that Justin Jefferson plays.

91:49And to watch that joy like sucked out of Justin Jefferson was a true bummer last year.

91:54Yeah, I'm excited that we might get the glint back in Justin Jefferson's eye this season.

91:58We've talked so much about the Vikings supporting cast.

92:01Just everybody gets that. But like this undoubtedly has to be the best cast of players that Kyler Murray's ever played with, right?

92:07Undeniably. Like, I mean, he had McBride for a year.

92:10The year where, ironically, he could not get him into the end zone.

92:13And Marv was on that team. And young Michael Wilson.

92:16And then in 2021, when they went 11-6, it was Christian Kirk, the Arizona version of AJ Green, and the Arizona version of Zach Ertz.

92:23And DeAndre Hopkins was there as well. But the Arizona version of DeAndre Hopkins.

92:27The offensive line was never good. This is, it's so unquestionably better than anything Kyler Murray's been given to work with.

92:33But I'm most excited about the entire experiment on offense.

92:36The quarterback being part of it. What does the offense even look like passing game-wise?

92:40Yeah. What are you going to ask of Kyler Murray?

92:43Because I think there are things that Justin, that Sam, and I'm just like removing 2025 from my considerations when I talk

92:49about who the Vikings want to be offensively. When I look back at the 2024 version of the Vikings, the amount of

92:55work that they were able to do and damage they were able to do in the intermediate to deep part of the field, especially like outside the numbers.

93:03Kyler Murray, his best strength to me as a quarterback, as a passer, is his touch on intermediate to deep passes.

93:09It's beautiful. And if you think about some of the big sail routes they want to throw, he's really, really good at that stuff.

93:16And so I do think Sam Darnold led the NFL in passing yards on intermediate and deep routes in the seams and outside the numbers in 2024.

93:23Kyler Murray, that's what he does well. The element that to me is a little bit harder to square.

93:28Kyler did a decent amount of under center play action in Arizona, but it's a lot of like big guitar fakes where

93:35you're getting them outside of the pocket afterwards. There aren't a lot of plays where he's setting up in the pocket off play action.

93:41Sam Darnold did a shitload of that in 2024.

93:4449 intermediate and deep attempts off under center play action from the pocket in 2024 for Sam Darnold.

93:49I believe that was the second highest mark in the league per next gen.

93:53Kyler had 12 of those. So even in a world where he was using a decent amount of under center play action,

93:59his frame just doesn't allow you to do some of the same things they were doing with Darnold.

94:04So I think that looks a little bit different.

94:06So it's not about can this work? I do think there are so many things they want to do that align with Kyler's relative strengths.

94:13I just think structurally you're going to have to figure out some things you didn't have to figure out with Sam Darnold just because of who Kyler is.

94:21I don't necessarily disagree with you, and he did play more under center.

94:25It's not a crazy outlier the way that Burrow is in Cincinnati or obviously not Jaden Daniels' first couple years in Washington.

94:31He's still post-Cliff Kingsbury. He was 31st in the league in under center snaps during the Cliff years, and it ticked up, but only to 26.

94:38Yeah. There's still a gun-heavy team. He does it, but he's still, he was, he's in 2024, the year that we just gushed about as being pretty good.

94:46He was top 10 in shotgun rate. And so, and the Vikings, since KOC got there, they're second in the league in under center snaps.

94:53Darnold did it all the time. Kirk obviously did it all the time.

94:57And they're top five in under center play action as well.

95:00Kyler has done it. Kyler can do it. How well can he do it if that is, like, are the Vikings going

95:06to do it that much, or do you kind of have to adjust the sliders?

95:10And that's what I'm curious about. And I'm curious about how it also relates to the run game.

95:15Because when I talk about the experiment overall, they are really excited about the run game.

95:20Like, what they're seeing, the early returns on it.

95:22They hired Frank Smith. I think you were on your, you were on your training camp tour when we did a show about them hiring Frank Smith.

95:30And I spent some time digging into everything they're doing with their run game.

95:34And it's pretty exciting. They're extremely excited about this.

95:36We'll see if that's warranted. But they're extremely excited about it.

95:39They were a middle-of-the-pack rushing success rate team last year, which was better than they were in the Darnold years.

95:45But I feel like they believe that there is, like, a real jump potentially on the horizon here.

95:50And I don't think that's crazy based on personnel considerations.

95:53Their offensive line last year, they played with the second most offensive line combinations in the NFL last season.

95:5817 of them. Only the Chargers had more. And beyond the shuffling, even when Christian Derusaw was playing last year, he was not himself.

96:05He is, the way that he looks right now in camp, they think he can be like an all-pro player.

96:10And so if that's going to happen with just more stability across the board for a team that already had an average

96:17running game, and the other part of it to me that's so interesting, the run game in Miami, even as an outside

96:23zone team, was incredibly gun-based in part because of who Tua is.

96:26Well, now if you want to do that again, you have a quarterback you could add to the run game.

96:32Yep. So now you have this Miami run game that was dynamic and scary and really good over the last few years,

96:38and you can start reading shit on the backside because you have Kyler Murray.

96:42I don't know if it'll work, but the idea of it is cool as hell.

96:46The fact that they were finally an average run game last year, considering the factors, considering nobody cared about what was happening

96:52at quarterback and passing game for them because it was so limited, and how many different guys were playing banged up when they were even in there.

97:00And then, yeah, Derusaw, who is supposed to be like your star on the offensive line, not fully looking like himself.

97:06If any of those factors can change and get a little bit better, and you can add the quarterback run game.

97:11And this is a run game that, like, they have depth at running back.

97:15They have two guys that are, like, viable threats for them.

97:18And so— I think Jones will be more of a change of pace.

97:22Right, but the fact that he's still good at this age is like— You've got to worry about his touches.

97:28Yeah, 100%. You always had to, especially at his age, you have to.

97:31I've taken Jordan Mason in every fantasy league. Every single one.

97:34Just because if the run game has that sort of ceiling, and he's going to get 15 carries a game, he's never

97:41gotten 200 carries ever in a season. If he does that, he's a thousand yard back.

97:45In this offense, he should be, absolutely. I'm trying to hold back on getting too excited about day three draft picks in these previews.

97:52But DeMond Claiborne, you want to talk about juice in the run game.

97:55And obviously, he's third on the pecking order. I don't expect him to get a ton of work.

98:00But as a guy with real home run speed that you could insert into this thing in specific situations, I think that's something worth keeping an eye on.

98:08The other day three pick that's worth mentioning before we move on from this, they drafted a fullback in the fifth round.

98:14They sure did. And that—they're going to use that guy.

98:17Oh, he was playing a lot in the preseason.

98:20They're going to use that guy. And so I'm excited to see what happens with the run game.

98:25This might be one of those training camp, it's all sunshine and rainbows and bullshit, and it doesn't end up actually working out.

98:31But there is real optimism about what they are building over there.

98:35Go watch the first run they had in the first preseason game.

98:38It's an outside zone to the left. They hit it for 19 yards.

98:42It already—and sometimes this stuff takes a while to click.

98:44They already feel like they're on the screws with, like, what the run game has been.

98:49But let's get to what we're watching the first month of the season.

98:52Dave, what are you watching the first month of the season with the Minnesota Vikings?

98:57I've been joking since Friday night of the draft that Brian Flores took control of this year's draft, and they took four big-time defensive draft picks.

99:04And I just want to see how quickly those guys are ready to roll, what they look like.

99:09And I think there's cause for optimism. I think, unfortunately, some of this looks exactly as realistic as we thought it might.

99:15Everything I've read and seen and just watched with my own eyes about Caleb Banks kind of confirms why that was an eyebrow-raising pick for me.

99:22I'm not here to shit on the guy's career.

99:25He hasn't played a regular season game. He just hasn't played much football.

99:29Exactly. That's the problem. Like, divorce yourself from the idea that I'm trying to render judgment on the guy's career.

99:34But at this point in time, he said himself to reporters last week, I'm not in shape right now.

99:39He was rehabbing a foot injury. That was the big thing that raised questions about him as a draft prospect.

99:45It limited his offseason. Nobody's upset about this. This was part of the deal.

99:49Brian Flores talked about it. Brian Flores has been very complimentary of his approach and, you know, how he'll develop and work his way into conditions.

99:56He's made of the right stuff. It sure seems that way.

99:59I think that's the thing they're excited about. But you have to acknowledge the gap that currently exists.

100:04And it's a bummer to not have high expectations for a top 20 draft pick.

100:09We've talked about how we need these rookies to infuse this thing with some young talent.

100:13Caleb Banks might be that guy by December. I mean, that's the hope, right?

100:17Is that Caleb Banks can give you something over the course of his rookie year.

100:21I don't expect him to give you much in the first four weeks of the season.

100:26So that's already a little bit of a bummer.

100:28Dominique Orange looks very fun. And I'm not just saying that because Flores dropped him into coverage in a preseason game.

100:34Like he looks like he can help you as a run defender right away.

100:38Correct. Yeah, that's the thing is like Orange will be a bigger part of what they're doing early on than Caleb Banks will.

100:44And I think by a considerable amount. And they need that because again, they need it.

100:49That's the part of Justin. They need this shit.

100:51Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave were cut from this team, but those are financial decisions.

100:56Those players were totally acceptable players for them, especially in run defense last year.

100:59And so they really do need Dominique Orange to step up because like Jalen Redmond is solid and Levi Drake Rodriguez is solid.

101:06I think Jalen Redmond is a really good player.

101:08Right. But this is thin without the young guys.

101:11Other guys. There was a point in time where Jalen Redmond was coming off the bench for them to be really good.

101:17Yes. Now it's like he's the dude and you need waves behind him now.

101:21One more bright spot. 69 preseason snaps isn't a huge sample size, but Jake Golday looks exactly as fun as I thought he might be.

101:28He does look good. Flores was sending him off the edge.

101:31He was sending him through the A gap. He had 11 tackles and a pressure in the preseason.

101:36And so just as like, you know, a jack of all trades, a guy that you can use to get pressure in unconventional ways.

101:43I think he'll have a role pretty quickly. And I honestly think they might have to start using him as an edge player at times.

101:50Like they just signed Kyle Vannoy, which we didn't say because they signed it after I made that list.

101:55They were really thin on the edge. Like it just, we can talk about just the defense overall, but I think the

102:01young guys, it's not a matter of simply curiosity with the young guys on this team.

102:06You feel like they have to contribute because of what the defensive makeup is currently.

102:10And so that's where I'm at. Like not only just the rookies, what do we get from Dallas Turner?

102:15Right. Who's still a young player. It's a huge part.

102:18It is now a, we need Dallas Turner to be that guy.

102:21And I think there's optimism that he can be, but kind of reminds me a little bit of the Packers conversation where

102:28we're in a place of times now, man, where there's no waiting for these guys.

102:32We need them to be contributors based on what the other construction of this looks like.

102:36Let's get to what's keeping us up at night about the Minnesota Vikings this year.

102:40Dave, what is keeping you up at night about the Vikings?

102:44At the start, I said, we get to unwrap the Kyler Murray mystery box.

102:47And this is the part where I say, we have to unwrap the Kyler Murray mystery box.

102:52What if it's not good? What if it's socks?

102:55Yes. You know, I don't know. That's I used a lot of my notes in the previous segment, but I've been talking about this incessantly since last November.

103:03And I'm, I'm super intrigued by it. I'm pretty confident it's going to work.

103:06Like that's what I was going to ask. I was like, heart of hearts.

103:10Where are you at with it? I think it's going to work.

103:14I don't know if the Vikings are going to go 14 and three or anything like that, but like, I think Kyler

103:20Murray is going to give this team. Good quarterback play above average quarterback play.

103:24I believe it. Maybe I just want to believe it, but whatever.

103:27This is where we are. It's not cutting time, but that doesn't change the fact that it might not work.

103:33And it's going to be disappointing for me personally.

103:35It's obviously going to be disappointing for the Vikings.

103:38It raises a shitload of questions about Kevin O'Connell.

103:40If it doesn't work and where this team goes at quarterback and who should be tasked with identifying that quarterback.

103:46And on top of that, the Vikings just won't be very entertaining for another year, despite having a pretty good roster.

103:52And that's, that's depressing. And I like watching Kyler Murray play football.

103:55I hope it doesn't happen. Let's stay depressing. Mine is what if a return to capable quarterback play, even if we concede

104:01that, even if we give him quarterback 16 this year, what if that's just not enough?

104:06That's the scariest outcome. That's terrifying. That is the scariest outcome.

104:09We spend so much time saying if they just had a quarterback.

104:12So let's play this. That is really bleak. Let's say he's quarterback 16.

104:16Let's say they're the 11th best offense in the league, which we can talk about the supporting cast.

104:21Supporting cast is excellent. If the run game is better than it was in 24, 20, we've talked about this in 24.

104:27They weren't a top 10 offense. That's partially because of the running game.

104:31But if you're a quarterback, 16, you can only be so good offensively.

104:34You need everything else to go so well. Let's just in this hypothetical, say they were a top 12 offense with Kyler

104:40Murray, Kyler Murray playing as quarterback 16 through 20, which I don't think is an unfair framing of like what could potentially happen.

104:47That's up to this point in his career, up until 2025, 16 to 20 was the worst that you could ever put him in.

104:54Yes. Yes. And so like, I think it's pretty reasonable to assume he can at least get back to there.

104:59So let's say that. And let's say they're the 10th best offense in the league.

105:03What if the defense takes a significant step back, which we were going to talk about here.

105:08That's worth keeping you up at night. The defensive personnel, look at the Vikings defensive depth chart.

105:13Brian Flores has been incredible, right? But if he can make a top eight defense out of this thing, we should just

105:19build his Hall of Fame bus now. Like that would be an insane achievement.

105:23So let's just say this year, they are the 12th best defense in the league on top of being the 12th best offense in the league.

105:30In this division, what does that do for you?

105:33You probably finish nine and eight because same as last year.

105:36Let's look at it this way. If that ends up happening, how many more elite units exists in the division over what you have?

105:43A lot. I mean, the Packers offense, the Lions offense, the Bears offense.

105:46Yep. Like you might be a 500-ish team that misses the playoffs.

105:50Okay. Now let's take it a step further into the offseason.

105:53What do you do? You put yourself in a spot where you're not sure if paying this guy is the right move,

105:59but how can you not do it? Like you almost have to do the Daniel Jones thing.

106:04Yeah, do you want to go four years in a row with a different quarterback?

106:08And then if you do the Daniel Jones thing and you're paying Kyler Murray $40 million, you're then paying full freight for a quarterback.

106:15You already have a lot of expensive pieces on the roster.

106:18You still have a ton of holes defensively. I don't like this.

106:21Can we stop? To me, it's not even an unfair reading about the season.

106:25It's like a middle-of-the-road outcome. But then when you start to play it forward, it's like it's not worst-case scenario, but it's also not good.

106:32And I honestly think that is the most likely path here.

106:35So then you have to decide if we're not going to pay him $40 million, $45 million, $50 probably with inflation, do

106:41you want to take your chances in the draft again?

106:44Maybe it depends on the year. But if they're picking 17 and you've got to maneuver up again, even if there's five

106:50quarterbacks in the first round, you're picking quarterback five again.

106:53And so, again, I don't think this is the most charitable or least charitable vision of the season, but I don't think it's some far-off fantasy.

107:00You said 11th offense, right? Yeah. If they're 11th in offense, you find a way to keep Kyler around, whether it's the

107:06tag or depending on the size of the deal he'd be willing to sign.

107:10But 11th is pretty good considering where you just were.

107:13You're 11th paying him a million dollars. And I agree with that.

107:16But then if the defense does take the step back, even if you're like, OK, we found a guy who can do

107:23it, you just feel worse about it. Like, I think in the world where the defense falls back to, like, 12th, which

107:29that's like if I were ranking defenses, that's probably about where I would put it.

107:33Like, I think they'll take a step back. I still think they'll be good.

107:37I still think they'll destroy some of the bad quarterbacks in the league because that's what Brian Flores does.

107:42Being an 11th best offense is like the worst outcome.

107:45Like, if they're the fourth best offense and this is just nuclear and looks like the Colts or something, you are pretty.

107:51I think you're pretty. Which can happen. Which can happen.

107:54I think it can happen. Listen, I know the Colts did so many cool things last year and they have some really good players, too.

108:01If Daniel Jones can be the hottest thing in football for two months, I'm pretty sure a significantly more talented player in

108:07Kyler Murray also has that possibility to do that.

108:10But you either need that to happen or for the Kyler Murray thing to go so bad that it's just like off ramp.

108:16Screw it. This is done. And I think both of those are more far off possibilities than just being kind of an acceptable way of place to land.

108:24Yes. So your answer was specific about the defense.

108:26Yeah. You're worried about the secondary. I think I'm worried about the secondary.

108:30And this is me like, I think this was my answer last year.

108:34Yeah. And I think the talent on the secondary is worse than it was last year.

108:38At least you still last year had some of the like, you know, if Harrison Smith is still in the building, he's still a veteran for you.

108:46And, you know, again, maybe that'll actually still happen this year.

108:49But like, I think to me looking at a secondary that is Byron Murphy, Josh Metellus, Theo Jackson, Isaiah Rogers, Jay Ward.

108:55Byron Murphy is the only player there where I'm certain they are a good football player.

108:59How dare you talk about James Pierre that way?

109:02How dare you? James Pierre and Isaiah Rogers. He refuses to give any credit to Metellus always.

109:07Always acceptable corners. They need more than acceptable secondary players here.

109:10Here's why I think this is a different situation than even last year.

109:13Last year, having Harrison Smith allowed you to use Metellus the way that you want to.

109:18Right. He can be a box player. Last year was on half the snaps, but that was partially just because of how much base they played.

109:25Without Harrison Smith there, you lose two things. You lose the flexibility you want from Metellus because even if you're excited about

109:31a Jacob Thomas, who's an undrafted free agent, this is still like we're talking about undrafted free agents.

109:36Like it's even if you're excited about players like that, having to play Metellus in the deep part of the field in part because you lost Jamal Adams.

109:44You lose the flexibility you like on the back end.

109:47And with the Harrison Smith thing, the communication, Metellus is going to have to do that stuff.

109:52And so I think getting Harrison Smith back to unlock every bit of flexibility schematically that you have.

109:57We talked about this. They've got like four calls in the huddle based on what's going on.

110:01Harrison Smith was the channeler of that. So getting Harrison Smith back to be that and to be able to use Metellus

110:08the way that you want to because there's so many questions about the quality and depth at safety.

110:13I feel like you have to do it. Like whatever he wants, like pay him $10 million and put five void years on it.

110:19Who gives a shit? Because I do think that is the material difference, even if he's not the player he used to

110:25be, of this secondary last year compared to what it currently looks like in this moment.

110:30This is the time where you would do that though and they haven't done anything.

110:34We'll see. I mean it's still a week. I think we'll see.

110:38I think that is possible because he can play tomorrow.

110:40Yeah. And there's not like in this. Yeah, he can.

110:43We don't have to worry about a ramp up period for Harrison Smith.

110:47Let's talk about what success looks like for the 2026 Minnesota Vikings.

110:50I feel like we kind of just danced around it.

110:53You guys put a fine point on it. You all harshed my vibe if I'm being honest with you.

110:58What was your answer? So I said quarterbacks good.

111:01Defense is solid. This is a playoff team. But then on the bottom of that I said at the very least finish

111:07the season with some confidence that Kyler is your guy and you don't have to do this shit for another year.

111:13But having listened to y'all the path that leads to wanting to pay Kyler wanting to pay Kyler not feeling like you

111:19have to important distinction is a narrow one. And that's scary.

111:22I don't know if it's that narrow. I do think it's I do think you could easily talk yourself into it.

111:28Like I think success is every bit of enthusiasm we had about this offense and this infrastructure and this support staff coming out of 2024.

111:35Do we have it again? Yes. Do we have it again?

111:38And that's exactly why I'm at. If we have that and even if you're a 9-8 team because the defense takes a

111:44step back but you can talk yourself into the multi-year outlook for the offense, I think that's okay.

111:49I think that part is okay. I don't think you have to make the playoffs for this to be considered a success.

111:55I think you have to reestablish the way that we see the people associated with this organization.

112:00Flores has it. That's in cast and amber. Yeah.

112:03The O'Connell offense part of this. Can you get the most out of Kyler?

112:07The paying him thing, all that stuff, we'll handle that when we get there.

112:10But that to me would feel like success. If we feel the way we felt about KOC and Kyler Murray in 2024, that will be a success.

112:18Like they will be where they want to be.

112:20And again, to put my last point on like why I do think the Kyler Murray thing should work, we've like obsessed

112:27over the reclamation quarterback over the last handful of years because a lot of guys have made it work.

112:32Like Baker Mayfield made it work. Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold.

112:35Some of those guys are really talented and also went first overall.

112:38And like Sam Darnold's arm is unbelievable. Kyler Murray's highs before he became a reclamation project were objectively significantly higher than any of those guys.

112:45And he's unbelievably talented. Like I just, I have faith that this thing is going to work.

112:50Like if all of that's true and I agree with you, I just, I think playoffs should be the goal.

112:55And I think it's fair to say expectation for that matter.

112:59I just, I have my concerns about the defense.

113:01That's the only reason that I'm not just writing it in.

113:04Because again, if they're a middle of the pack defense and they're the eighth best offense in the league, I don't think that's a crazy outcome.

113:11And you might not be able to make the playoffs in this division with that.

113:16And I still think that would be a success.

113:18We have really big concerns about all four of the defenses in this division, but we ascribed playoff aspirations to everybody else.

113:24I think the offense, the off, the heights of the offenses in the other places are not theoretical.

113:29We all saw those offenses finish as top five units in EPA per play in the final two thirds of last season.

113:35I think Green Bay is a little more theoretical than you do, but.

113:39But we've seen them do it. We just quarterback in this coach every single year for the last three years.

113:45I think that's a good way to frame it.

113:47I think if literally any offense in this division finished in the top six, I'd be like, oh, okay.

113:53The one I would probably have the most questions about doing it is Minnesota.

113:56Even if I believe in it, it's just like we have not seen it.

114:00We have not seen the quarterback and play caller.

114:03Like it's, it's okay to wait and see how, what you think the quality is going to be.

114:08Yeah. All right. That is all we've got for the Minnesota Vikings and the NFC North.

114:12We will be back tomorrow. Wrapping things up when the NFC West, our eighth and final division for now, that's all we got.

114:19Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.

114:22Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button.

114:25So you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like comment and leave a rating.

114:31We'll see you next time.

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