Brett Kollmann & Trevor Sikkema's ULTIMATE 2026 Season Preview | NFL Pro
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 13 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 4, 2026
Published
Fri, September 4, 2026
30
Player insights
27
Players mentioned
Topics
Dak PrescottJoe BurrowLamar JacksonBrock BowersCaleb WilliamsChase BrownChristian McCaffreyDerrick HenryDK MetcalfGeorge PickensJa'Marr ChaseJahmyr GibbsJavonte WilliamsJaylen Waddle
Player analysis
Player insights
Brock Bowers
PositiveBreakout56:19
Brock Bowers is a sleeper pick for Offensive Player of the Year, as he is expected to be a primary security blanket and focal point in the offense for Fernando Mendoza.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
PositiveBreakout55:19
Caleb Williams is a strong Offensive Player of the Year candidate if he improves his accuracy on short-to-intermediate 'layup' throws by roughly 5-10%.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveUsage65:36
The source notes that Chase Brown was heavily involved in the Bengals' offense last year, receiving a significant number of carries and touches.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeUsage58:47
The source expresses concern for the 49ers' outlook, noting that Christian McCaffrey is coming off a season with extremely high usage.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveProjection34:03
The source highlights the Cowboys' offense as being elite, specifically noting that Dak Prescott is part of a high-powered unit that is expected to perform well this season.
Insight pagePositiveValue54:17
Dak Prescott is currently underrated as an efficient quarterback with a strong supporting cast of weapons, making him a non-obvious MVP candidate.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
PositiveUsage45:06
The source suggests that the Ravens' new coaching staff will likely lean on Derrick Henry more effectively within a more coherent macro-offensive strategy.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
PositiveProjection57:03
The source suggests that for the Steelers to have an explosive passing game, it would likely require a generational yards-after-catch performance from DK Metcalf.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveProjection34:03
George Pickens is noted as a key contributor to the Cowboys' high-scoring offensive outlook for the 2026 season.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveProjection56:07
Ja'Marr Chase is expected to have a monster season alongside Joe Burrow, making him a primary candidate for Offensive Player of the Year.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveBreakout52:39
Jahmyr Gibbs has a legitimate path to the greatest running back season in Lions history, with potential for 2,300-2,400 yards from scrimmage and high touchdown volume behind an improved offensive line.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
PositiveBreakout34:03
Javonte Williams is credited with having a resurgent year, contributing to the overall strength of the Cowboys' offense.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveUsage23:29
Brett Kollmann predicts Jalen Waddle will finish top-10 in total targets this season following his trade to the Broncos. Kollmann expects Sean Payton to utilize Waddle in a 'Joker' role similar to Alvin Kamara and Reggie Bush, featuring him in backfield motions and slant-flat/wheel route combinations to exploit his speed.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection40:32
The source expects the Bengals to win their division and potentially reach the Super Bowl, with Joe Burrow leading a high-powered offense.
Insight pagePositiveProjection54:07
Joe Burrow is a top MVP contender assuming full health, as the Bengals' offense is capable of elite production and high-scoring performances when he is on the field.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
PositiveUsage64:26
Jonathan Taylor benefits significantly from the athleticism and run-blocking prowess of center Tanner Bordellini, who creates rushing lanes through effective reach blocks and second-level movement.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveProjection17:17
Trevor Sikkema identifies Justin Jefferson as the best wide receiver Kyler Murray has ever played with, framing this partnership as a primary reason for his optimistic outlook on Murray's 2026 season.
Insight pageKareem Hunt
NegativeUsage10:09
Brett Kollmann notes that Kareem Hunt struggled to break tackles and generate explosive plays for the Chiefs last season, contributing to the team's sub-7% explosive run rate, which was the lowest in the NFL.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveUsage8:30
Brett Kollmann highlights Kenneth Walker as a major addition for the Chiefs, noting that while the Chiefs' offensive line provided a high floor, the running back room lacked explosive playmaking. Walker, who posted a 14.9% explosive run rate last year (third-best among RBs with 100+ carries), is expected to elevate the team's ceiling by turning contact-heavy situations into explosive gains.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveProjection15:16
Trevor Sikkema projects a career year for Kyler Murray in the Vikings' offense, predicting over 4,000 passing yards if healthy. Sikkema argues that despite Murray's history in spread/shotgun systems, he will thrive in Kevin O'Connell's under-center, play-action-heavy scheme, citing Murray's top-five rushing production since 2019 as a key asset.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveUsage45:06
The source expects the Ravens' new offensive coaching staff to better integrate Lamar Jackson into a macro-level strategy that makes more sense than in previous years.
Insight pagePositiveProjection51:53
Lamar Jackson is a primary MVP candidate because he historically performs at an MVP level whenever he gets a new play-caller, and the Ravens' offense is expected to be highly productive.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
PositiveProjection54:51
Matthew Stafford is a top candidate for Offensive Player of the Year, with expectations for high productivity and significant red-zone touchdown volume alongside Devontae.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeProjection59:08
The source acknowledges the 49ers added Mike Evans but remains uncertain about his performance in a new team environment.
Insight pageRicky Pearsall
NegativeInjury58:54
The source notes that Ricky Pearsall is not currently part of the 49ers' active offensive plans, contributing to the team's overall uncertainty.
Insight pageSam Darnold
NegativeUsage16:40
Trevor Sikkema points to Sam Darnold's 2024 season in Minnesota as evidence that the Vikings' scheme can support a mobile quarterback, noting that Darnold achieved career highs in rushing attempts and first downs under Kevin O'Connell.
Insight pageTee Higgins
PositiveProjection40:32
Tee Higgins is part of the Bengals' core offensive group that the source believes will lead the team to a division title and potentially a Super Bowl appearance.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
NegativeInjury61:58
Travis Etienne suffered an injury that forced the Jaguars to rely more heavily on Jacoby Myers to maintain offensive functionality.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveUsage69:05
Travis Kelce is highlighted as a unique exception to goal-line efficiency trends, as Andy Reid utilizes creative plays like shovel passes to him in the red zone.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
NegativeInjury54:18
The source notes that Tucker Kraft is expected back for Week 1 but questions if he will return to his previous form, noting the Packers' offense is substantively different when he is on the field.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:48What's up, sickos? Welcome to the NFL Fantasy Football Show 2026 season preview show.
1:52If you're listening to this on audio, be sure to subscribe to the NFL Pro Podcast all season long as we deep
1:58dive into the hottest NFL trends and teach you to analyze the game like a pro.
2:03Football! Oh, it's season preview time here on the NFL Pro Channel.
2:07Yo, boys ready! Hell yeah! Yo, boys ready! Hell yeah!
2:09Yo, boys ready! Hell yeah! Today, we're talking about new teams that are poised to take the leap into the postseason this year.
2:16We're going to identify some secret superstars around the league, give you our season awards, but a couple of picks.
2:22Ones with the head and then with the heart as well.
2:25I'm going to show you a play that Sean Payton designed for Reggie Bush back in 2006 that I think is making a comeback here in 2026.
2:33The man who is a company man right next to me with the NFL hat, that is Brett Coleman.
2:39And myself, the company man with the NFL Pro shirt, I am Trevor Sikkema.
2:43I appreciate you guys tuning in and watching this season preview here.
2:47But Brett, how you doing, my friend? I'm good.
2:49This is actually remnants of a Rob Lowe Halloween costume that I got years ago.
2:54Oh, wait! I flew out to Buffalo. Wait, is it actually a Rob Lowe costume?
2:58Yes. Yes, I swear to God. I flew out to Buffalo for the first Sunday night game in Buffalo in a long time.
3:05The Packers were visiting. I think Aaron Rodgers was still in the Packers at this time.
3:10And it was Halloween weekend. And so I went trick-or-treating with my buddy and his kids, went to the Packers or the Bills game that weekend.
3:18And it's cold in Buffalo in October. So I was like, OK, what Halloween costume can I do that also involves being warm?
3:24Being warm, right. Rob Lowe trench coat, the Rob Lowe hat, wore it to the game.
3:29I actually got recognized, like people identified and were shouting like, Rob Lowe, let's go!
3:34And so I've just had this hat ever since.
3:36I actually can't find this hat anywhere anymore. I need to try to source one because it's starting to get a little beat up.
3:43But like, it's one of my prized possessions. Brother, we work for the league now.
3:48I think we can get a generic NFL hat for you at some point so you can get a new one.
3:54So we got a lot of things to cover here on this show.
3:58So we got to get it rolling. We've had a lot of coaches, players, as they do every offseason, change spots, have
4:04some new homes, some new threads, whatever you want to call it.
4:08But the question is, is the grass greener? And we're going to identify a couple of different scenarios where somebody is making a change to a different team.
4:16And we're going to talk about whether or not we think that that's actually going to be a good change or not.
4:23So, Brett, I'll let you kick this one off.
4:25Who do you want to start with? Who do you want to shout out here for the first player in a new spot?
4:32Well, we wouldn't be a sports show without talking about the Chiefs first and foremost.
4:37Ah, here we go. Here we go. It's going to make sense.
4:40Brett, we were supposed to be different. We're not.
4:43People tuned into this show to be different. And now you're bringing up how many times we could say the word Patrick Mahomes in a 60-minute minute.
4:51No, I'm just kidding. I will not say Mahomes' name at all other than that in this segment, I promise.
4:57The reason why I'm bringing it up. So the central theme of today, at least one of the central themes of today, is the run game.
5:05How it affects the micro. How it affects the macro.
5:08We're going to be touching on this a lot.
5:10And so when I bring up the Chiefs first, it's really because of the effect that Kenneth Walker has on their run game.
5:17This is one of the biggest offseason additions around the league because this team was straight up awful in terms of generating explosive plays with their run game.
5:25It's been that way for quite a while. And if you're looking at league-wide trends, drives that have an explosive play end
5:32in a touchdown 42% of the time. Like just over 42% of the time.
5:36That's a lot. Yeah. If you don't get an explosive play, it goes down to 4.3%.
5:41So this league runs on explosives. And however you can get them, right?
5:45You know, one of the oldest adages that I've operated on is the offensive line sets the floor for a run game.
5:51The running back sets the ceiling. The floor was actually pretty high for the Chiefs running backs last year.
5:57This was a good team as far as average yards before contact per attempt.
6:01And if you're looking at the Chiefs running back room the last couple years, they're the only team in the NFL that was sub 7% explosive run rate.
6:09Like that's atrocious. And a lot of it is because Kareem Hunt just can't break tackles like he used to.
6:15There's a whole bunch of examples where, hey, we got all of our guys accounted for in the blocking scheme.
6:21You need to make one miss on the edge.
6:24And he just couldn't do it. Again, Hunt was effective in that first half, but not on this play.
6:29You contrast that with Kenneth Walker, who was exceptional at making his guy miss.
6:33It's about a 37-yarder from here to try to go up two scores.
6:37And they're going to keep it conservative from Myers.
6:40He had a 14.9% explosive run rate last year, third best in the NFL among all running backs with at least 100 carries.
6:47And the difference between the Chiefs' run game last year and the Seahawks' run game, I always go back to ceiling and floor, right?
6:54Ceiling of a run game is set by the running back.
6:57The floor is set by the offensive line. The Chiefs' offensive line actually set up their running backs for success way better than people think.
7:05It's just they were so atrocious in terms of yards after contact per attempt.
7:09Meanwhile, you have Kenneth Walker, who's exceptional after contact.
7:11He can actually turn those lanes that the Chiefs are going to give him into explosive runs and therefore make this offense just better by default.
7:19And the Seahawks are averaging about eight yards a carry.
7:22I love how you put that there with the offensive line sets the floor.
7:26Or the running back sets the ceiling because that goes back to my scouting philosophy as well.
7:31There's a lot of running backs that can work for a run game.
7:35But how many truly elevate? And that's sort of how I've tried to make sure that my scouting process is really identifying and prioritizing running backs that elevate.
7:43I thought Kenneth Walker, when he was coming out in his draft season, absolutely a running back that would elevate.
7:49He has done that with the Seahawks. And I do agree.
7:53I think he is the best chance to do that that they have had in a long time.
7:58I mean, the last one they had that was over 10% was Clyde's as worth a layer.
8:03And that was a half decade ago. Like, it's been a while.
8:06This goes into the deeper, like, do running backs matter, contract, value discussion, which I know we'll dive deep into sort of at some point this season.
8:14But that's really where it stems from, exactly what you just said.
8:18The running back is the one that has to elevate the ceiling of the run game.
8:23And if you don't have a back that can either make guys miss in a phone booth, get those yards after contact,
8:29get those explosive plays, you're always, I think, going to be wanting more.
8:33So I'm super excited about Kenneth Walker as well.
8:36All trolling you aside, like this was a good way to kick things off.
8:40I think that this is going to be exciting to watch.
8:43And, you know, I want to go to Minnesota for my first one.
8:47I understand that things were not great in Minnesota last year.
8:50Most of what you heard there was just the craziness of the quarterback position.
8:54Guys in and out. McCarthy is no good. And it just felt like everything took a step back.
9:00Brett, do we forget that this team won nine games last year?
9:03Like, this is somehow, some way. But I'll tell you what the somehow, some way was.
9:08Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores, right? This is still this coaching staff.
9:12Yeah. So, yeah. Count me excited for Kyler Murray being a part of this coaching staff.
9:16And you know what? I think Kyler has a career year this year.
9:20I think Kyler has, in some ways, one of the best years of his entire career.
9:25I think he throws for over 4,000 yards for the first time in his career, if he's fully healthy.
9:31And the reason why is because I think a lot of people look at Kyler in this Kevin O'Connell offense and they say, oh, he doesn't fit.
9:39Like, he doesn't fit and he's not going to work out.
9:42Just because a guy didn't necessarily run it or hasn't necessarily run it doesn't mean he's not going to be a fit.
9:48I mean, sure, Kyler has run basically exclusive spread shotgun stuff throughout college and the NFL.
9:53But I'm actually really excited about him in a more under center, heavier play action, heavier boot game type of an offense.
10:00Because when you go back to Sam Darnold two years ago, when he was with Minnesota, he had the most rushing attempts
10:06of his career, most rushing first downs of his career, and the third most rushing yards, which is pretty much close to where his rushing career high was.
10:14You look at Kyler, since 2019, since he came in the league, he's got almost 2,000 yards rushing, 12 touchdowns, 104 first downs.
10:21All of those numbers are top five around the league when it comes to a rushing quarterback.
10:26So I think that this is going to be great for him.
10:30Because people look at this offense as such a negative for Kyler Murray.
10:34I think Kevin O'Connell is the best coach he's ever had.
10:37I think Justin Jefferson is the best wide receiver he's ever had.
10:41He's had other good wide receivers, you know, like when DeHop was there.
10:44Wide receiver talent wasn't really the big issue. But I just think that there's so much there to actually believe in.
10:51And in my opinion, there's too many people thinking, oh, he hasn't done it, so he won't be good at it.
10:57But I actually think this is going to be the best thing for Kyler Murray in his career.
11:02And I think he's going to have a career year in a lot of ways.
11:07I'm going to put you on the spot. Their first three games this year, hosting Green Bay at Chicago at Tampa.
11:13What's more likely? 0-3, 3-0. I think what's more likely is 3-0.
11:16I would say so too. I don't think they go 3-0.
11:20But to your question, I think it's more likely they go 3-0 than they go 0-3.
11:24They won more games last year than the Panthers did.
11:27Panthers won a division. Now, again, not a super high bar to clear, but like the third or fourth place team in
11:34a division won more than a division winner in the South.
11:37It's just, the NFC is crazy, man. They are.
11:40They are. All right, who's next? Who's in a new place that you're looking forward to seeing?
11:45I'm really looking forward to seeing what Mike McDaniel and Amari and Hampton do together.
11:49After watching Amari and Hampton last year, it's honestly kind of the inverse of what we talked about with the Chiefs.
11:56The Chargers' average yards before contact per attempt was abysmal.
11:58Their average yards after contact per attempt was awesome.
12:01A lot of that was because of Amari and Hampton.
12:04If you're looking at running backs with at least 50 carries last year, Hampton was tied for third in missed tackle force
12:11percentage at 30.6%, which is a crazy high number for that large of a sample size.
12:15And if you look at carries like, say, the one that he had against the Raiders, right?
12:20This was a couple plays before they got a 60-yard touchdown.
12:24It was a third down. They had three shots at him to at least try to trip him up, which, you know,
12:30you look at Kareem Hunt's tape, he probably will get tripped up on these.
12:34Amari and Hampton was able to stay on his feet from not one, not two, but three guys.
12:40Eventually, the fourth guy got him. That was an explosive gain on third down.
12:44They scored two plays later. The rookie shows his power.
12:47They were not a very good team as far as blocking for him last year, but he still made something out of
12:53nothing so much that I have to imagine if their offensive line is remotely healthy this year.
12:58They've already lost a guy, so it's the Chargers.
13:01Bear with me. If they are remotely healthy. Like maybe Slaughter is that guy at center.
13:06Go Gators. You just had to slip it in there.
13:09I have to imagine he's getting 1,300-plus rushing, maybe add a couple hundred receiving on top of there, and he's going to
13:15be the most productive running back the Chargers have had since Ryan Matthews.
13:19When Ryan Matthews went to the Chargers, I was like, this is just the passing of the torch with LaDainian Thomas.
13:25And I was like, here we go, baby. Another decade.
13:28And I know injuries obviously unfortunately slowed up Ryan Matthews.
13:31But I agree with you. I love this call.
13:34I love McDaniel as the run game orchestrator because I think that they're going to get to the outside a lot.
13:40Go straight into what you were talking about, honestly, with Jake Slater being a zone blocking guy.
13:45And anytime that you get Omari and Hampton to the outside and you get him one-on-one, man, he is too big a
13:52lot of times for corners to bring down. And he is too fast.
13:55And he is too quick for linebackers to bring down sometimes, too.
13:59I think he's in for a major, major year in Mike McDaniel's offense.
14:03I agree. All right. Bring us home. Who you got?
14:06I'm going to take the people on a little journey here.
14:09All right? Because earlier this offseason, the Miami Dolphins traded Jalen Waddell to the Denver Broncos, right?
14:14For a first-round pick. High price. High price. I think it's absolutely going to be worth it.
14:19When you look at the Broncos, since Sean Payton's got there, they've spread the ball out a ton.
14:25You know, guys, you have a target share in the low 20s.
14:28And it's just, it's a lot of different options for places where any of the quarterbacks, Bo Nix, obviously the latest one,
14:35to be able to throw the football. And some people look at that and they go, oh, okay, this is just this era of Sean Payton.
14:42I don't think it is. I think Sean Payton wants to go back to what he had with Alvin Kamara and Michael
14:49Thomas when those guys were averaging above 30% of a target share.
14:52And when I look at Jalen Waddell, I think that Waddell is going to be top 10 in targets this season for any position.
14:59Running back, tight end, wide receiver. I think that that trade is going to look so well worth it because I think
15:06that the way that Payton wants to get him involved is reminiscent not just of great wide receivers he's had in the past.
15:13I think he's thinking about Alvin Kamara and the usage out of the backfield as well.
15:18When you look at the last two years, the Broncos are second in the NFL in wide receivers that have played snaps in the backfield.
15:25And I got some plays to sort of highlight what I'm talking about here.
15:29So this clip here is from 2019. We're going to start with 2019.
15:33We're going to start with Alvin Kamara and the way that Sean Payton sort of used him.
15:38And the whole time I want you guys to think about this route combination.
15:42I want you to think about using Jalen Waddell out of the backfield.
15:46Think about his speed. Okay, let's start here by looking at Alvin Kamara.
15:50So first off, Kamara is lined up on the outside when they break the huddle.
15:54He is motioning back to the backfield and he's going to stand next to Drew Brees.
15:59So right off the bat, we sort of have an easy connection to Waddell being an outside wide receiver and then motioning him into the backfield.
16:07So we're going to look at two route concepts that are very similar here.
16:11The first one here in 2019 is this slant flat concept.
16:14And what it's going to do is it's going to take advantage of zone coverage.
16:19So you have these defenders right here that he's these deep zone coverage defenders.
16:23And then you're going to have this defender come here.
16:26There's a zone and this defender is going to occupy this zone.
16:29You're going to notice that the slant flat combination is going to carry this defender to the middle of the field and
16:36it's going to freeze this zone defender, which is going to open up all this space right here for Kamara to operate under.
16:43So if we let this play out, you see the slant, the flat.
16:46Look at all that space. Now, again, think about this route here, but it's Jalen Waddell speed.
16:51If Kamara is the prioritized player, look at all this space that he has to work with.
16:57Again, you get the ball in his hands. If he's the primary read, I think this goes for a touchdown, but that's not enough.
17:04I want to go a little bit deeper into the bag here.
17:07This is something that Sean Payton has been doing for a long, long time, getting speed out of the backfield.
17:13I'm going to take you all the way back to 2006.
17:16This is the NFC Championship game here between the New Orleans Saints and the Chicago Bears.
17:21So this is instead of a slant and then a flat route here, it's a slant and a wheel route.
17:27Now, this is going to be against man coverage.
17:30Okay, let's let this play out so we can see a little bit clearer.
17:34You see that this is a single high safety.
17:37Everybody else is in man coverage here. Okay, they're in man coverage.
17:40Basically everywhere across the board. And this is going to create this slant route.
17:44It's going to create this natural pick for this defender to, you know, he's not going to be able to keep up with Reggie Bush anyways.
17:52But Reggie Bush is just going to have this little bit of separation and then his speed does the rest.
17:58So we see how this plays out here. That is exactly what happens.
18:02Again, I say, think about this play with Jalen Waddle's speed.
18:05Bush wide open 30, 40, putting a move midfield.
18:08Can anybody catch Bush? He's the fastest guy on the field and nobody will.
18:1220, 15, 10, 5, bye bye baby. I think that Sean Payton views Jalen Waddle as that type of player, as an
18:18Alvin Kamara type of a player, as a Reggie Bush type of an athlete.
18:22And remember when he was talking about that Joker position a couple of years ago, right?
18:27And he never got that player that we all felt like was perfect there.
18:31Well, now he's got that player. Now he has that Joker position type of player.
18:36You want to hear a wild Sean Payton Broncos connection that also kind of loops in San Diego.
18:41So Reggie Bush, San Diego kid, right? So Sean Payton, after he was done playing, spent 87 with the Bears.
18:47A year or two later, he's at San Diego State starting his coaching career.
18:51From that staff, he learns about the slot option route, which is like a brand new thing back in football back in the day.
18:58That staff was in the Dennis Erickson tree. That route concept was in the Dennis Erickson offense.
19:03Dennis Erickson got that offense from Jack Elway, who got it from his son's high school team in Granada Hills in LA.
19:10So bring it all around 40 years later. If I ever play you in NFL Jeopardy, I am screwed.
19:15I might as well just give you the charity money up front.
19:19I'll cut you the check beforehand and we could just not waste everybody's time for the episode.
19:24What a pull that was. But yes, that is how I see Jalen Waddle being used.
19:29And if you guys see these exact plays and concepts at some point this season, you just remember where you heard it
19:35first here on the NFL Pro Channel. I'm just saying, you better come back.
19:39That's why that happens. Everyone who watches this video, you owe us a subscription.
19:44Hey, yo, hey. If you're a f***ing dog, I need to see you today.
19:48I need to f***ing feel it today. All right, let's talk about some teams that are poised to make the leap.
19:54We're going to talk about some teams that didn't make the playoffs last year that are going to this year.
20:00But of course, if you're adding teams to the playoffs, you get to subtract teams from the playoffs too.
20:06So Brett, talk to me about the first team that you see making the playoffs this year and why.
20:11Speaking of Sean Payton connections, I want to talk about the Cowboys.
20:15Their defense was bad last year. About 30 points per game is what they allowed.
20:19First of all, I think they're going to be a top 12 scoring defense this year.
20:24If they were even average last year, if they were 16th, 16th was about 23 points per game.
20:29So literally a touchdown less per game. If they held every team they played against last year to 23 points, they would have gone 12 and five.
20:37That's how bad their defense was, right? They would have pushed for a one seed or at least gotten close.
20:43So when I look at this team, the offense we know is going to be sick for all the reasons everybody talks about.
20:50Dak, CD, Pickens, Javante had a resurgent year. Like it's a good offense.
20:54If the defense can just execute better specifically on second down this year, almost by default, they're going to be an average defense.
21:01So kind of walk with me here on this.
21:03After they got Quinn and Williams in the post Quinn and Williams world, they went from 32nd in rushing success rate allowed.
21:10They were literally dead last in the NFL all the way up to 14th became an above average run defense as far
21:16as success rate allowed just from Quinn and existing, right?
21:19Massive jump. So they were a good first down defense.
21:22The issue was they got teams into a lot of second and longs and then completely crumbled.
21:27They were third worst in the NFL in offensive success rate allowed in second and long.
21:32DCs love being in second and long. If you're in second and medium, second and short, okay, now it's kind of ambiguous
21:39as far as run pass rates go. If you're in second and long, most teams are going to treat that as a
21:45passing down, which then favors the defense. The Cowboys, I mean, still they had the ninth highest pass rate, at least called
21:52pass rate against them on second and long. They knew teams were going to throw against them.
21:57They couldn't stop it. Not because the pass rush was bad.
22:00Pass rush was actually pretty decent, but 63.6% of all of these passes against them on second and long were quick throws under two and a half seconds.
22:08They couldn't cover anybody, but I don't necessarily think it was the player's fault.
22:12I mean, you're a draft guy. I'm a draft guy.
22:15We graded all these guys coming out. We like Revel, right?
22:19Bland a couple of years ago had a tremendous year.
22:22I don't think the players just got bad. But if you're looking at how they were used in the Iberflue system, Cooper
22:28Degene from week 11 on had more press snaps than either of the giant Cowboys corners.
22:33They were not letting them do what they do best.
22:36They would play a bunch of man, but they would make them play man in space and then wonder why the ball
22:42was getting out in two and a half seconds.
22:45Nobody could stop anything. So the pass rush had no shot of effect in the game because the ball was out.
22:51The DBs were not being played to their ideal skill set.
22:54Now you've got Christian Parker coming in. What does he like to do?
22:58A lot of match zone coverages, which means we're really playing man coverage, but with zone coverage principles.
23:04A lot more opportunities to get up on the line of scrimmage and press receivers and just not concede space.
23:10I still think they're going to be a good run defense because of Quinnen and Barham and Overshown and obviously Caleb Downs,
23:16but now they're actually going to have their stuff together on second and long and get to more third and long opportunities.
23:23This team I think was like conservatively bottom 10 in terms of third down plays run against them in the back half
23:29of last year because teams didn't get to third down.
23:32They just converted on second down. If you win second down here, it's going to be a good defense.
23:38And if they're a good defense with that offense, they could be like the two seed in the NFC.
23:43I agree. I mean, this is a team that I also picked to make the playoffs.
23:48I think Christian Parker is going to utilize his defense and their skill set in a lot better ways.
23:54They're going to play a lot more sort of zone because he's a Fangio guy, so he's going to want to stay in that too high world.
24:02But they'll play like zone matching where, okay, like a lot of zone is going on, but then the guys on the
24:08outside a lot of times are going to be afforded to play man.
24:12Like their skill set actually says they should. You got a better front.
24:16You got Barham. You got a better front. You got a better front.
24:20You got a better front. I'm super excited. So the Cincinnati Bengals are the team that I think makes the playoffs.
24:26One of the teams that I think is poised to make the leap back to the playoffs this year.
24:32And the reason why, yeah, we can sit here and we can say like Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins.
24:38Like we can talk about the offense. Brett, we need to talk about both sides of the trenches.
24:43And one side of the trench is obvious, right?
24:46When you make a big splash for Dexter Lawrence, it's going to be better for this team.
24:51I know they don't want to Trey Hendrickson anymore, but it's going to be better.
24:55They were so bad in the middle of that defensive front last year.
24:59His presence alone is going to be huge for them.
25:02For a pass rush perspective, from a run stopping perspective, and from just a planetary perspective of what his gravitational pull and
25:08everything does to both his side of the trenches and the other side of the trenches.
25:13But I want to kind of focus on the offensive line a little bit here because I don't think enough people realize
25:20that the Bengals offensive line is not what it used to be.
25:23And I say that in the best way. When you look at this team, they're starting five offensive linemen last year.
25:29Only one of them had a quarterback pressure percentage above 7%.
25:33And it was a Marius Mims, who I think Mims is going to have a much better year this year anyways.
25:39Now, what does 7% pressure rate mean? Well, guys like Darnell Wright, Peter Skaronsky, Chris Lindstrom, Mike McGlinchey, those guys all had pressure percentages above 7%.
25:47So four out of the five spots on the Bengals offensive line had below a 7% pressure rate.
25:52And then again, the only one that didn't was Mims, who I think is going to take a leap this year anyways.
25:58Because there is athletic and just size progression that I think is naturally going to happen with him if he is fully healthy.
26:05It's kind of what we thought of him coming out of Georgia.
26:09And I think that's really manifesting right now. So give me the Bengals, man.
26:13Give me the Bengals to get back to the playoffs.
26:16But I think win that division. And I think this is an AFC championship team.
26:20And I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bengals making it back to the Super Bowl as well.
26:26I think this is a Super Bowl ceiling type of a team.
26:29So first of all, I agree. I think they win the division.
26:33But I also think the Ravens make the playoffs as well.
26:36I think two teams go to the playoffs from the AFC North.
26:40So I'm going to have the Ravens as my other making the leap team.
26:44And here's why. Ravens fans know this well. This team was really bad from a macro perspective over the last few years.
26:50I thought they were pretty good in that run in 2023.
26:54Then they got to the AFC championship game and just kind of lost their minds a little bit.
26:59And then since then, they've really been bad in the macro game, right?
27:03When am I kicking a field goal versus going for it?
27:06When am I punting versus going for it? When am I really leaning on Derrick Henry?
27:11When am I leaning on Lamar Jackson? It just felt like a lot of their micro play calls never made sense in the macro.
27:18And so you bring in Jesse Minner. You bring in, in particular, Declan Doyle, who comes from this Ben Johnson offensive school
27:24of the micro is in service of the macro.
27:27And I think it's just going to look very different.
27:30I think concepts will be similar. I think techniques will be similar as far as the offensive line.
27:35I still think it's going to be a bunch of wide zone, which the Ravens have done.
27:40But I think it's all going to be in service of a more coherent macro.
27:45And I want people to walk with me here on this.
27:48Everything the Bears did was knowing in their back pocket they were really good in third and short.
27:5372% conversion rate on third and short. They were one of the three best teams in the NFL at it.
27:59So that was always in their back pocket. So to them, first down was a great opportunity to throw the ball because
28:06really as long as they could get to third and short, they were golden.
28:10They had the fifth highest pass rate on first down.
28:13Their play calls on second down really depended on whether or not that ball was complete on first down.
28:19Typically, like a normal yards per attempt on first down is going to be, what, seven, seven and a half.
28:24If that's complete, you're in second and short already.
28:27Once they got to second and short, they were hyper aggressive.
28:30This was a stat that I got from Ryan Paganetti.
28:33Great stats guy. Worth a follow. Always tweets really interesting stuff.
28:37Among 68 play callers with 70 plus games calling plays since 1999.
28:40Johnson ranks first in second and short aggression rate as far as throwing the ball down the field.
28:46No current projected 2026 play caller is even within 17 percentage points of him on second and one.
28:51They throw the ball on second and short. Why?
28:54Because if it's incomplete, who cares? We're good on third and short.
28:57We're already set up for that. So what if the ball's incomplete on that first down pass and they're in second and long?
29:04You would think that's where you throw it again.
29:07They don't. They run the ball. They actually had the second highest run rate on second and long because they were just
29:13trying to get to third and manageable. They were a really good team on third and manageable.
29:18What's interesting about that is when they would run the ball to get to third and manageable, where they were on the field determined what they did next.
29:26Again, micro in service of the macro. Once they crossed the 50, they treated third and long like it's another rundown.
29:33Yeah. They would run the ball a lot on third and long because they're like, well, we're already across the 50.
29:39We're playing with two downs here. So they would turn third down essentially into second down once they were in opponent territory.
29:45If they were in their own territory, they would throw more.
29:49And again, they were really good at it. And so you see this pattern of our run pass rates, our personnel groupings, our formations.
29:56Everything is kind of keeping that third down in the back of their mind because their whole philosophy is let's just keep getting first downs.
30:03If we string enough first downs together, we're going to score.
30:06And we know that Ben Johnson wants to be the highest scoring offense of all time.
30:11I think we're going to see a the Bears do this a lot again this year.
30:16But I also think we're going to see the Ravens do it a lot.
30:20I think their play calling is going to make sense from a macro perspective, which for the first time in years is something I could say about Baltimore.
30:28It's this like no surrender sort of like philosophy when it comes to we have four downs to get the first down.
30:35We don't have three and then a punt. We have four downs to get the first down.
30:40We see teams around the league being really aggressive with that.
30:43But obviously Ben Johnson's philosophy over the last couple of years goes into that, which sort of leads right into my point
30:50for my last team that I think makes the playoffs this year.
30:53And that's the Lions. I think the Lions are back in the playoffs this year.
30:58I think they're winning the division in the toughest division in football.
31:01I think that they actually come out on top because when you look at this team last year, still an okay year
31:08from them, especially given the fact that, man, they had so many injuries.
31:12They lost both of their coordinators. I think that they're back on track this upcoming season, specifically from an efficiency standpoint on
31:18those key downs that you mentioned, third and fourth down.
31:21Now, this team still scored a lot of points last year.
31:24They still racked up a ton of yards. But the big difference, I think, with the Lions last year was they just
31:31weren't nearly as efficient on third and fourth down.
31:34When they had Ben Johnson there, Ben Johnson was a whiz at setting third down up to be manageable, getting it ready
31:40for fourth down if that was the best case for them there, and then converting on that fourth down.
31:46They just were not the same without Ben Johnson.
31:48And I think that they're going to be much more cohesive and much more confident when it comes to those money downs.
31:55I certainly hope that this team isn't nearly as hurt on the defensive side of the ball as they were last season.
32:01And if those things are true, I think that they do have the right coaching staff.
32:06I still think they do have the right players, and I think they're going to once again light up the scoreboard.
32:12But beyond that, control the football more than they were able to last year.
32:16So give me the Lions to win what is the toughest division in the NFL.
32:21Teams that miss the playoffs, because if we're adding teams, we've got to subtract teams.
32:25So really quick, who are your two teams to miss the playoffs since you talked about two teams to now make the playoffs this year?
32:33Well, we've talked positively about the entire NFC North except for the Packers, which is unfortunate, right?
32:38Because they're a good team. They really are. They had some tough decisions to make in the offseason because they were up against it cap-wise.
32:45They had to spend their money wisely, and so they lost a couple quality players.
32:50It's tough to project how successful this run game is going to be when there's been so much upheaval up front for the last couple of years.
32:58Not to mention, okay, Tucker Craft is going to be back for week one, we think.
33:02Is he going to look like Tucker Craft, right?
33:05If you're looking at the on-off splits for this offense, they are a substantively different team offensively when Tucker Craft is on the field.
33:12If he looks like himself, okay, great, we're cooking with gas.
33:15But I have even deeper worries about the defense because as dramatic as the splits are for Tucker Craft, they are way
33:22more dramatic for Micah when he's on and off the field, and he's not going to be there week one.
33:28Their quick pressure rate damn near doubles when he's on the field.
33:31They have other players we like. Edron Cooper is great.
33:34Xavier McKinney is great. You can't function without Micah Parsons there, and he's not going to be there.
33:40I worry they're going to have a hole that's too deep to dig out of.
33:44Who's the other team? Because you've got one more.
33:47What's the other one? I mean, it's the same pick that everybody else has, the Steelers.
33:52And there are parts of the Steelers that I like a lot, right?
33:55Young, talented offensive line. I think the run game is going to be fine.
34:00I think the defense has pieces I really like.
34:02But there is no universe where you can keep making the playoffs in a tough AFC where you have the Bengals and
34:09the Ravens, who I think are going to be better this year.
34:12You can't make the playoffs in that division, in my opinion, when your average completion traveled 3.4 yards past line of scrimmage.
34:19That's basically a below average run as far as air yards per completion.
34:23Yeah. If they're not an explosive passing game, it would take like a generational yards after catch year by DK Metcalf to be a great explosive pass game.
34:31It's going to look a lot different, though. You know, like they're just there.
34:35I still think they're going to get the running backs involved in the passing game a lot because this team either led
34:42the NFL or was second in the NFL in targets to running backs last year, which is why the average set of
34:48the target is so low because Aaron Rodgers didn't want to get hit.
34:52So he's just like, here you go, Jalen. You know, here you go, Kenneth.
34:56Hope you don't die. Dump it up every single time.
34:59But I think it's going to look a little bit better from an average set of the target standpoint.
35:05But I do agree with you. I think just the fact that the Ravens and the Bengals, in my opinion, are going to be that much better.
35:13I think it's going to leave the Steelers out.
35:15So I took the obvious ones. What about yours?
35:18Who do you have missing the playoffs? I have the Niners sort of barely missing the playoffs this year.
35:24A lot of new, still some injuries that they're working through.
35:27McCaffrey coming off just such a high usage year for him last year.
35:31You know, Brandon Ayuk obviously not being a part of this.
35:34Ricky Pearsall not being a part of this. A lot of people are super excited about Deshaun Shribbling.
35:39And you should be. I had him as a top 60 player as well.
35:44But man, that's a lot to ask of a rookie to basically carry your passing attack.
35:48I know they got Mike Evans as well. But we'll see what he is like in a new spot.
35:54I just feel like there's just too many uncertainties, I feel, with the Niners.
35:58To be in a division with the Seahawks and the Rams.
36:01And to also specifically be in a conference where we already talked about how we think the Cowboys are going to be a lot better.
36:09We already talked about how basically everybody in the NFC North could make the playoffs.
36:13I think they're going to just miss it this year.
36:16And then my other team is Carolina. I just don't think that Carolina is going to repeat as division champs.
36:22It is a wide open NFC South. But I like the Bucks and the Saints more than I like Carolina to repeat.
36:29Again, I have question marks in the trenches. Getting Jalen Phillips is huge for them.
36:33He has to be huge this season. But you're down.
36:36What was your schedule? Starting two offensive tackles. Can Monroe Freeling really step up the way that he needs to?
36:42I mean, if they end up making the playoffs, I think Monroe Freeling, we're going to look back and we're going to
36:48be like, what a hell of a pick that was.
36:51Because he's going to have to have an incredible year for them.
36:55But they're still figuring things out in the vertical passing game.
36:58Their run game hasn't looked great this preseason. Is it going to be able to start right out of the gate and play well?
37:05So just too much up and down for me for the Panthers to repeat.
37:09So I think the Panthers are out. They were a team that very much relied on low possession counts to win games last year.
37:17The more possessions are in a game, you would think that it means that the more talented teams or rather just the
37:23more cohesive teams, as they get more possessions to pull away from you, they're going to pull away from you.
37:29The Panthers didn't want that to happen. So their average offensive and defensive possessions was like nine and a half last year.
37:36In a sport where there's only so many points you can score per possession, the Panthers limited your ability to score a lot of points to pull away.
37:44And so they would drag you down in the mud and beat you with experience.
37:48This year, I'm not sure they're going to be able to do that again.
37:52I think they're going to have to actually go toe-to-toe in these games where you have 11, 12 possessions and you have
37:59to score at the same rate as the other team.
38:02We'll see if they can do it, but I'm in agreement.
38:05I think the Bucs win the division. All right, we have a little quick segment in the middle of the show, and
38:12I want you guys at home to also play along with this.
38:15Pause the video where you need to because we're going to play Statter Cap.
38:19It's essentially like two truths and a lie, right?
38:22I'm going to present three stats that Trevor has not seen.
38:25He's going to tell me which one is the lie, and I want you guys to tell me in the comments if you also got it correct.
38:33I have these stats in front of me. I was actually very surprised at the answer, so I'm not sure if you're going to get it.
38:41Oh, okay. All right, all right. I said that I wouldn't beat you in jeopardy, but I think I can get you
38:48in a one question versus one question, two truths and a lie.
38:51So let's do this. Let's lock in. I'm locked in here.
38:54All right, your three stats. The Bengals led the league in called pass rate last year.
38:59Six quarterbacks threw for 1,000-plus yards just from under center, and the 2025 season had the highest rate of two tight end sets.
39:06What's the lie? I think the first one's a lie, and I'll kind of like talk through it as people are sort
39:12of thinking about their answer as well. We talked a little bit when we answered some of your Q&A questions in our initial episode here on the channel.
39:21We talked about sort of the rise of 12 personnel and how I mentioned 12 teams last year had 100 play action snaps from under center.
39:28So I think that a lot of times when you're doing that, that leans into heavier personnel.
39:33So I don't think it's the tight end one.
39:36And when I think about the Bengals specifically, Chase Brown had a, I believe this is from the metric system here, a crap ton of carries and touches.
39:44So they actually involved Chase Brown a lot last year.
39:47Not a fully healthy borough season. So I'm going to say that A is the lie.
39:52So you're correct. Let's go! So for bonus points that aren't real, which team did lead the league in cold pass rate?
39:59It's going to seem so obvious when you hear it.
40:02First thought was Lions, but they have Gibbs, so I don't think that that's the case.
40:06I don't think they would have put that much on Caleb's plate.
40:10Was it the Cowboys? No. You're going to kick yourself when you hear it.
40:14The Cardinals. Oh, yeah, of course it is. Yeah, right.
40:17It's Jacoby thrown for like 50 times a game.
40:20Yeah, I should have known that. I should have known that.
40:23This is yours. By the way, shout out to the fine folks over at NGS for getting us these stats.
40:29The database that they have and the researchers that we have over at NFL Media, insane.
40:34I cannot wait to take advantage of their knowledge and expertise of the platform all season long.
40:39All right, here we go. These are the three statements.
40:42Will Anderson recorded the most pressures in the league in 2025.
40:45Miles Garrett has recorded the quickest get-off time in each of the last four seasons, minimum of 250 snaps.
40:50And Patrick Queen missed more tackles than any other defender in a season in the NGS era last year.
40:56What do we think it is? Ooh, man, that's tough.
40:59I think number three is, yeah, I'll go number three is a lie.
41:03I think Patrick Queen ideally had a better tackle rate than that.
41:06I hope he did. He did not. Oh, no.
41:09He did not. Hold on. Let me look up Patrick Queen's salary right now.
41:13More than us, brother. More than us. The lie was actually, A, Will Anderson did not record the most pressures in the league last season.
41:21Aiden Hutchinson led the NFL with 90 pressures last year.
41:24I think one of the craziest Aiden Hutchinson stats I've ever seen was, so when he broke his leg a couple years
41:30ago, I think it was like week 11 or week 12.
41:33He broke it in like week six. I'm pretty sure it took another six weeks for somebody to pass him in pressures that year.
41:41Yes, yes. Absurd. So you know why I know that specifically?
41:44Because in that God mode Aiden Hutchinson like six games, whatever it was, the Bucs, they played the Bucs like in that span.
41:51The Bucs were down, I think, both of their starting offensive tackles, if not one of them.
41:56And Aiden Hutchinson ate him alive. Hutchinson had like double-digit pressures.
41:59I don't know. Don't quote me on that one.
42:02But he had like double-digit pressures in one game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he would just, Mayfield was running for his life.
42:09So I do remember that. Aiden Hutchinson got in there and nailed him.
42:13All right. I want to hit on a trend here.
42:16Unfortunately, it's one that Trevor might not like, because we're holding a little funeral for the air raid offense.
42:21Which I know, your favorite thing. May it rest.
42:24May it rest. But I will say, if you're looking at what NFL teams are telling us with their moves this offseason,
42:30really the last couple offseasons, the air raid is, and I want to say dead, it's not doing well in the NFL.
42:37You have about 20% of the starting quarterbacks in the league that have some kind of connection to, you know, the Cliff
42:43Kingsbury, Lincoln Riley, even like the old BYU air raid connection there.
42:47What's the pop culture game? It's like eight separations of Kevin Bacon or something like that.
42:52Yeah, the Bacon number to 80 BYU. All you need is three to get to Cliff Kingsbury, it feels like, over the last five years.
42:59All right, so Vikings, they got Kyler. That's a Cliff and Lincoln Riley guy, I believe.
43:04You have the Bears. Caleb was also a Cliff and a Lincoln Riley guy.
43:08They switched a year ago to being more like under center pilled.
43:12But Jaden, Cliff guy with the commanders. You bring in David Blau, probably going to be more under center, more quote unquote traditional looking.
43:19Joe Burrow, you know, not a Cliff guy, but you could have fooled me with how the Bengals have played offense since he got in the league.
43:27It's a lot of shotgun, a lot of spread, a lot of 989.
43:30You know, Jamar's down there somewhere. Jalen Hurts, Lincoln Riley guy, and so Cliff by association.
43:35Buccaneers, Baker was a Lincoln and a Cliff guy at various points in college, I believe.
43:40The Browns kind of converted him to being more under center centric when he was early in his career, which was good for him.
43:47But again, he kind of came out of that shotgun air raid world.
43:51And then you got the Chiefs with Andy Reid, who again, like he was there when the deep magic was written.
43:57He was a player at BYU in the 80s when they started this whole thing.
44:02And so that was honestly what I should have seen coming because I wasn't, I was famously like not a huge Patrick
44:08Mahomes guy in his draft class because we had never seen an air raid quarterback work in the NFL.
44:14And then of course he went to the coach that knows the air raid better than anybody.
44:19And it's like, okay, of course it worked there.
44:21But even Mahomes over the last few years, more under center, more quote unquote traditional looking like they're kind of getting away from it as well.
44:29And so there's such a huge swath of these quarterbacks.
44:32They're not going to be in gun as much.
44:35It's not just going to be inside zone all day.
44:38Less RPOs, less screen, more under center, more play action.
44:41We're all kind of going back to 2000s football.
44:43And I think the reason why, you know, if we're talking about like how we get to this point, it's because one, college football, right?
44:51Bill Parcells says the NFL can only take what the college game is giving them, right?
44:56There's some obvious changes that the pro game will bring just because of the elevated strength, size and athleticism.
45:01But if college is trending towards a certain way, a lot of times the pros are going to try to take advantage
45:08of those concepts and skill sets and things like that.
45:11So when you look at college, you look at these teams that were just lighting up the scoreboard in the 2010s.
45:17And then Patrick Mahomes, there were a lot of people that thought it wasn't going to work with Patrick Mahomes, but he
45:23gets to the league and they spread things out.
45:26And he just shreds these single high defenses. Anybody that was playing cover one, cover three, there was all this space at
45:33the seam and they were just punishing these defenses for it.
45:36Terry kills wide open. The Chiefs go 73 yards in one play.
45:39When you look back in 2017 in the NFL, teams were 11 personnel 58.7% of the time.
45:44Then a couple years later, about five years later, it goes all the way up to 61.4%.
45:49But last year, it was all the way down to 56.3%.
45:53Now, if you look at heavier personnel, so not the spread, not the air raid, heavier, more condensed personnel.
45:58In 2017, it was only 26.9%. And last year was 33.2%.
46:02It's been going up every single year. Now, I got another stat that I think really contextualizes this even more because next-gen stats can do this.
46:09If you measure from the widest wide receiver on one side of the field to the other, there was a 26.3% average
46:16width from wide receiver to wide receiver back in 2017.
46:19Last year, it was an entire four yards closer.
46:21And it was at 22.9%. It's been going down every single season.
46:25So to go back to what you said, is the air raid dead?
46:29I don't know if it's dead. But it certainly ain't trending in the right direction.
46:33You kind of brought it up there with the cover three, cover one thing and how the Chiefs were absolutely demolishing people
46:40that were in single high safety structures in Mahomes' first couple years of starters.
46:44A big reason for that is because you have Tyreek Hill and you put Tyreek Hill as the number three when you're going into a trips look.
46:52And you can run a deep cross with a receiver that runs 4-2.
46:56And there's nobody that can keep up with them.
46:58And so when teams were in cover three, like that throw was just available to them all the time.
47:04It really wasn't until the AFC Championship game against the Patriots, specifically in the second half of that game, where Belichick kind of adjusted.
47:11They started playing literally a coverage that they call one cross.
47:14Some coaches call it one lurk, whatever you want to call it, where you're putting a zone defender.
47:20It's man coverage. It's single high. But you're putting a zone defender in that intermediate middle in order to stop those crossing routes, right?
47:27And that's the misconception that I think a lot of people have is when you're dropping a safety down in the box
47:33and you're opening yourself up to be vulnerable against the pass, it's not because you're throwing go routes down the boundary.
47:40It's not because you're throwing a deep post. Cover three is going to stop both of those throws more often than not.
47:46It's those crossing routes. That's what kills people. That's the air raid identity is those crossing routes.
47:51And so when you see the rise of a too high safety look, the teams that are trying to stop crossing routes
47:58are playing quarters to stop those crossing routes. Because if they play cover one or they play cover three, you're going to get absolutely torched.
48:05I want to bring up this touchdown by Kyle Williams to illustrate this, right?
48:09This is the nightmare fuel that makes people want to play quarters.
48:13If you have these two crossing routes and you only have one high safety, that safety has to choose which one he's going to cut, right?
48:21That's what coaches call it. You're cutting the crosser because you have a depth and leverage advantage to handle this crossing route
48:27a lot better than the corner does who's covering it.
48:30You only have one available safety to do that.
48:33And typically he's going to cut the crosser that's deeper.
48:36And so when you have Kyle Williams one-on-one here with a route that is designed to break man coverage, a crossing route,
48:42and there's nobody there with a leverage advantage to cut it because you only have one high safety, then all Drake May
48:49has to do is wait for him to clear a linebacker, get to that last window.
48:53It's a much higher completion percentage throw than a go ball down the boundary where you're hoping for 50-50.
48:59This is a much easier one to complete, and there's nobody there.
49:03If you complete it, there's literally nothing that can stop him from scoring.
49:06That was how the Chiefs absolutely destroyed everybody. It was with these crossing routes because they had Tyreek Hill and you didn't
49:13have anybody that could cover Tyreek Hill. That's why you now see teams play a lot of quarters against teams that love crossing routes, right?
49:20You look at this PBU by Julian Love here.
49:23Seattle loves quarters. Why? Because if you're in a three-by-one look, right?
49:27You do a late motion, you're switching the two and the three to the field side.
49:31You have the new three, he's running a shallow.
49:34You have the new two, he's running across. You have the safety that can play over the top of number one, but
49:41you still have another safety that's available to cut the crosser.
49:44He has a leverage advantage. He has a depth advantage.
49:47You're not going to get absolutely killed here. Like when you have these leverage advantages with multiple safeties, it takes away the
49:53bread and butter of the air raid, which is these crossing routes.
49:57It's not about the deep post. It's not about the go ball.
50:00It's not even about screens and RPOs. It's can we stop the deep crossing route?
50:05You're going to sacrifice a little bit as a run defense if you're playing quarters, unless you have a unicorn type of
50:11defensive tackle, like Byron Murphy, which we talked about last show.
50:15But you still have to do it or else you're going to give up explosive plays in the pass game.
50:21That's why they want to force you into cover three is to open up those crossing routes.
50:26EPA per pass damn near doubles if you're looking at single high safety structures versus two high safety structures.
50:31As in, you will get a much higher EPA per pass if you can force teams into playing single high safety.
50:37That's why we're seeing more tight ends on the field.
50:40We're seeing more condensed formations on the field because they know defenses will play more cover three against those looks.
50:46It's not that they want to. It's because they have to because they have to stop the run first.
50:52That's rule number one. And if you can force them into cover three, you're going to get explosive plays in the pass game.
50:59Not from go balls, from crossing routes. That is the sport right now.
51:03That'll be an ongoing thing, but that's a big area of improvement for us because I'm not going to run away that
51:09I haven't done a good enough job of making that an emphasis.
51:13And it's cost us and that's nobody's fault but my own.
51:16All right. Thanks, guys. Let's move on to some season awards because we've got to hit the season awards.
51:22We've got to hit MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year.
51:26But we're going to have two different picks here.
51:29We're going to have, okay, this is what your head says.
51:32And that might be a little bit more of the obvious pick.
51:35But then a pick from the gut, a pick from the heart, whichever organ or body part you want to say is
51:42a little bit off the beaten path here. So give me your MVP.
51:46Let's knock these out because I want to get to as many as possible.
51:50But MVP, obvious one, non-obvious one. What do you got?
51:53I think the obvious one to me is Lamar because it seems like every time he gets a new play caller, he wins MVP.
52:00So we're going off the street here. But also all the reasons we talked about with Declan Doyle, I think the offense is just going to make sense.
52:08And I think they're going to score a lot of points.
52:12I think they're going to win a lot of games.
52:15You know, obviously Jesse Minner, I didn't even talk about him.
52:18Like he's going to get that defense right. Fun fact, if I recall correctly, the Ravens defense allowed more points in the
52:24first five weeks last year than they did the entire rest of the season combined.
52:29And that's the reason they missed the playoffs. So as long as they're not like historically the worst defense of all time
52:35in the first month, they'll be OK. They'll probably make the playoffs.
52:39And then my non-obvious MVP is going to be Jameer Gibbs.
52:42How's this for a bold prediction, by the way?
52:45I think it's possible he has the greatest running back season in Lions history this year.
52:50Which, by the way, Barry Sanders played for the Lions.
52:53I was about wait. Oh, I just went through.
52:55I just went through the entire circle of emotions right there because I thought you were going to say of all time.
53:02And I was thinking in my head like some unbelievable running back seasons.
53:06Like Ladanian Tomlinson seasons, the first one that came to my mind.
53:09It's like, OK, he didn't say better than LT.
53:12And then I went, wait a second, Barry Sanders played for the ball.
53:16I mean, I think he has he has a legit shot to get like 23, 2400 yards from scrimmage.
53:21And we've seen how many touchdowns he can score.
53:24Even if you go back to like Barry's, you know, best year yardage wise.
53:28Jameer's already had, I think, two seasons where he had more touchdowns than that Barry Sanders.
53:33Yeah, yeah. So you add in a metric ton of yards with an improved offensive line and all those touchdowns.
53:39He could legitimately win MVP. I think it'd be fun if a running back won MVP.
53:43But it is a quarterback award. So I'm gonna go quarterbacks with my two picks.
53:48The with my head or the obvious pick here.
53:51If I think the Bengals are going to win the division, if I think the Bengals are going to get to the
53:57AFC Championship game, it means that Joe Burrow is fully healthy and it means that offense is firing on all cylinders.
54:03So I'll go with Joe Burrow as the MVP there.
54:06You just know that they can light up a scoreboard and a stat sheet when he is healthy.
54:12So I'll go Joe Burrow as the obvious one.
54:14And then the not obvious one. I don't know.
54:17Maybe this isn't out there enough, but I'll go Dak Prescott.
54:20We talked very highly of the Cowboys here on the show.
54:23Let's go. And what we think they can be.
54:26We've highlighted the defense. We highlighted the defense last show as well.
54:30But man, I love what Brian Schottenheimer did with this unit last year.
54:34And I think that Dak is at this point underrated.
54:37It feels like people just go like, yeah, yeah, Dak Prescott, whatever.
54:40And I just think that he is an awesome quarterback and efficient quarterback.
54:44And he's got a lot of passing weapons to throw the ball to.
54:48So I'll go Dak Prescott there. Offensive player of the year.
54:51Who you got? Who are you two? Matthew Stafford, I think, is the obvious choice.
54:55I think the Rams are going to be sensational this year.
54:59They're everybody's favorite pick for the Super Bowl. I think he's going to be, as long as he's healthy, I think he's going to be tremendously productive.
55:07Again, him and Devontae in the red zone, I think are going to get a bunch of touchdowns again.
55:12As far as my non-obvious, and maybe to some people it is obvious, but looking at the metrics last year, it shouldn't be.
55:19Caleb Williams. If we just get a little bit more accurate on the normal run of the mill, first, second down, get me some completions type of throws.
55:27If he's just 10% better on those, he's one of the most productive quarterbacks in the NFL.
55:33Wait, 10? Maybe 5? Brett, that's a lot. That's a lot.
55:36Hold on here. Give me the 65% on the layups.
55:39Okay, that's fine. We can set the bar at 65.
55:42Jumping 10% in accuracy. How about this? I don't know if anybody's done that.
55:46The fully formed Caleb Williams is Jared Goff with the layups, but still Caleb Williams with the logo threes.
55:51Of course, yeah. That player wins Offensive Player of the Year, and that player might win MVP, honestly.
55:57Yeah, I think he can get there. I really do.
56:00I'll go with, again, if Joe Burrow's going to win MVP, I think Jamar Chase will probably win an Offensive Player of the Year.
56:07Right? Jamar's going to have a monster year, so that's a little bit chalk, but I'm going with the Bengals combination there.
56:13With how good Jamar and Joe Burrow are together.
56:16But my non-obvious one, I'm going to go Brock Bowers.
56:19I'm going to go Brock Bowers here. I think Kubiak is going to utilize Brock Bowers a ton in that offense.
56:25I think he's going to be a security blanket, best friend, whatever cliche you want to say for Fernando Mendoza when he eventually becomes a starting quarterback there.
56:34So I'm in on Brock Bowers. I'll go real quick with Defensive Player of the Year before you hit yours as well.
56:40I'll go Will Anderson sort of as the obvious one with Defensive Player of the Year.
56:45And then my non-obvious one, let's go more Cowboys.
56:47I'll go Quinton Williams. And I'm only going Quinton Williams because of what you said last week about how important that defensive
56:54tackle is to a Christian Parker defense. I think Christian Parker is going to sit Quinton Williams down, just look him in
57:01the eye and be like, we will go as far as you could take us this season.
57:06And I'm going to put you in the best positions to succeed, and it's going to be up to you to execute.
57:12And I think Quinton's going to be motivated. I think he's going to stuff the stat sheet.
57:17And I think he could be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
57:21What about you? What do you got? I mean, if you want a little cross-promotion here, if people go over to the
57:27NFL channel and they watch the video of Will Anderson and Miles Garrett working out, watch Miles Garrett do that box jump
57:34and then tell me he's not winning it again this year.
57:37You mean box fly because it's what it looked like he was doing?
57:41Just floating in the air? Like straight up, it looked like CGI.
57:45It was unbelievable. You never know what you believe.
57:47Maybe it is. No, I'm just kidding. Aliens are among us.
57:51If Miles Garrett came around for the first time in 2026, we'd all claim he's AI.
57:55So, you know. Yes, actually. The non-obvious one, speaking of aliens, Jeffrey Simmons.
57:59I think he is tremendous. I think he's the best interior defensive lineman in football right now.
58:04He outproduced, I think it was five entire interior defensive line groups by himself last year.
58:09Like you look at Jeff Simmons versus the Niners and like he lapped them.
58:13That's how good he is. I think he could definitely win it.
58:17Coming on in the last couple of seconds we got on the show here for the season preview.
58:22Obviously, we'll continue to talk ball throughout the entire season with you guys.
58:26But secret superstar, secret glue guys, whatever you want to call it.
58:29These guys that not a lot of people are talking about, but a lot hangs on their shoulders or they're bringing everything together.
58:36However you want to say it. We got two each.
58:39Brett, who is your first secret glue guy here in the NFL?
58:43Dude, Kamari Lasseter is a psychopath. He's a dog.
58:45Like he's unbelievable. You watch him last year. It's fourth and one against Buffalo.
58:50Reggie Gilliam, everybody's favorite fullback, Reggie Gilliam. He plays at like 260.
58:53And Kamari Lasseter took him on shoulder to chest and bent him backwards.
58:57And that set up a TFL on fourth and one.
59:00Like that's a corner. He's a player taking on a 260 pound fullback and winning.
59:04He's unbelievable. Got seven picks in his first two seasons.
59:07Roughly the same missed tackle rate as Devin Witherspoon.
59:10Everybody loves Devin Witherspoon as a run defender. He just got paid for it.
59:14And you should. But he had 62 solo tackles last year while Spoon had 48.
59:19And they had roughly the same missed tackle rate.
59:21Like he absolutely abuses receivers in the run game.
59:24Abuses tight ends. Takes on fullbacks. Takes on pulling linemen.
59:27Like I don't know if there's a tougher corner in football right now.
59:31And that's a high bar. I love Lasseter. And let's just stick a corner for mine.
59:35And it's Jacob Parrish for the Buccaneers. If Jacob Parrish is bad for this team, it's not going to be great, Brett.
59:42It's not going to be pretty. My mood's not going to be very good when we record the show after the Sunday games.
59:49That's all I'm saying. It's not going to be great.
59:52Rondae ain't walking through that door, bud. Rondae ain't walking through that door.
59:56They need somebody to step up at cornerback big time.
59:59And Parrish was great for them last year. He had a league high eight pressures when he was lined as a cornerback.
60:05So we know that Todd Bowles is going to utilize him everywhere.
60:09But the fact of the matter is, he was super versatile for them last year.
60:13He was one of five defenders who played more than 100 snaps at linebacker, outside corner, and slot corner.
60:19They love being able to move him everywhere, especially because they've put Antoine Winfield Jr.
60:23specifically back at safety. So they're not rotating him down in the slot.
60:27Jacob Parrish did a lot of that for them last year.
60:30But this year, he basically has to play as an outside corner.
60:34He has to. And somebody has to step up outside on the other side.
60:38You know, Benjamin Morrison, Zion McCollum, one of the guys who are big-time standouts throughout the preseason.
60:43Somebody's got to play well opposite Jacob Parrish. And that is just by saying Jacob Parrish has to be the glue guy.
60:50Because without him, I think the entire secondary in Tampa Bay might fail.
60:53So he is my first one there. Who is your second one?
60:57Jacoby Myers, the other side of the ball. Talk about glue guys.
61:00You look at the difference between the Jaguars offense, pre- and post-Jacooby Myers.
61:04Because it's 90-day. Dude, he's been a glue guy his whole career.
61:08His whole career he's been a glue guy. He might be the best glue guy at the receiver position in the NFL.
61:14Like, as far as his- The glue-iest receiver in the NFL.
61:18That might be the dumbest thing I've ever said.
61:20I mean, it's true though. And it wasn't even just like the emergence of Barker Washington.
61:25It was the emergence of both of them together.
61:28Like, even in the run game. Like, there was a play against Denver.
61:32I'll throw it up on screen. The fact that they combined on these combo blocks to seal the edge.
61:37Jacoby got a two-for-one on this play. Sets up an explosive run.
61:41Like, it's that kind of stuff. The dirty work kind of stuff that he really brought to this offense.
61:46That helped power them in the back half of the year.
61:50To having a really successful run there. And winning the AFC South.
61:53But even if you're just looking at overall. Like, EPA per play before and after Jacoby.
61:58Success rate before and after Jacoby. Explosive play rate before and after Jacoby.
62:02Like, the contested catch rate down the field. Between him and Parker combined.
62:06Like, they would not have functioned without him. Because, unfortunately, BTJ hasn't turned into what we hoped he could.
62:11Yet. We'll see this year. And then Travis got hurt.
62:14Like, they needed him to be the guy. And he was.
62:18Yeah. I've been such a big fan of his.
62:20Obviously, with the Raiders as well. And, yeah. I think he's the glue-iest.
62:24He's one of the glue-iest guys. And one of the glue-iest guys along the offensive line.
62:29Dude, how good was the Indianapolis Colts offensive line?
62:31Specifically, you know, at the beginning of the season.
62:34First half of the season. When things were really rolling.
62:37And I don't think that Tanner Bordellini, their center, gets enough credit.
62:41Let's pull up the Telestrator once again. Let's break a couple of plays down here for you guys.
62:46So, first and foremost. Tanner Bordellini, who has played so well over the last calendar year.
62:51He's a fantastic athlete. 80th and 90th percentile in so many of the athletic tests that we saw from him.
62:57At the combine. The point of the running game, right?
63:00Is to get the ball in the hands of the running back.
63:03And for him to get upfield. But it's not always about just getting all the offensive linemen downhill.
63:08Like, smash-mouth football. It's great. We love it. Hell yeah.
63:11But sometimes you need to be a little bit more creative.
63:15Sometimes you need to be a little bit more horizontal.
63:18In order to get vertical in the run game.
63:20And that's exactly what Tanner Bordellini does as an athletic center.
63:24You'll see him here. He's going to snap the football and fire off the ball.
63:28And just drive this defensive lineman all the way to this part of the field.
63:32And you'll see the running back go right behind him.
63:35That's because of that leg drive. That's because of that athleticism.
63:39Playing with great pad level. It really is fantastic to see.
63:42So, any type of, you know, zone running game where you're really trying to get horizontal before you get vertical.
63:48You see just clearing the way for the running back to be able to get a ton of yards on that play.
63:54You absolutely love to see it. So, here's another example where he's kind of doing the same thing on this next play.
64:01Now, this next play is a little bit different because it's going to involve some combo blocks here.
64:06You got a little bit of a combo block here before this offensive lineman climbs to the second level.
64:12And it's the same thing here. Tanner Bordellini's got to hold on to this block before the right guard next to him
64:18is able to really get his shoulder pads in between where this defensive lineman is.
64:23And then you'll see Bordellini climb up to the second level.
64:26But the properties are the same here. It's highlighting his athleticism.
64:29That's what we're really looking for here. Snap the ball.
64:32Getting off the football. There's a combo block there from him.
64:36And then he just gets to the second level.
64:38And, again, paves the way for Jonathan Taylor to get those extra yards there.
64:42So, that athleticism. I'm highlighting that. It's a major calling card of his game and why he is so good, has been so good over the last year.
64:51This play really, though, is the one that I want to highlight.
64:54So, you'll see Bordellini here is the center. All right?
64:57He's got a defensive lineman right in front of him.
65:00Right over the shade of the left shoulder. Okay?
65:03So, you would think that once the ball gets snapped, that's his guy that he has to block.
65:08But, no. The concept of this rushing play, everything is getting horizontal before it is getting vertical.
65:13So, Tanner Bordellini actually has to get, not only does he have to snap the ball quickly, he has to get all
65:20the way to this defensive lineman, reach block him, and create a wall for the running back to run behind him.
65:26That's an incredibly difficult thing to do. And yet, Tanner Bordellini can do it and do it very well.
65:32You see him get off the ball, fire off the ball, get to that defensive lineman, reach block him, have good hand
65:38usage, good pad level, good strength, and there it is.
65:41He's creating that rushing lane because he was able to wall off this defensive lineman in a way that you only get
65:48to do if you're a top-tier athlete. That first half of the season, they were just one of the best run-blocking units in the NFL.
65:55And I think Tanner Bordellini is a huge reason why they will need him again this year.
66:00They had Ryan Kelly for all those years. Bordellini stepped in and was just like, boom, hey, I'm here now.
66:06I'm taking the torch from him. We're good to go.
66:09Let's rock and roll this season. I think he's going to do that this year as well.
66:14See, here's how I know this show is going to change sports media.
66:18How many other season preview shows are doing Tanner Bordellini XOs?
66:21Yeah. I don't think any of them. If there's more than one, it's probably less than three.
66:26That's all I'll say there. But that's what we're all about here on this show.
66:31We got a couple of fun things to point out before we get out of here.
66:35We're throwing the challenge flags on these. England is challenging the ruling on the field.
66:40What's on our mind? What we really want to speak about?
66:43Something that's been bothering us that we just need to get off of our chest before we get out of here.
66:49Brett, what is your topic that you want to bring up to the people?
66:53I understand the value of joint practices. We have to do it smarter.
66:57Right? The number one rule of these, and I know it just drives coaches crazy.
67:02The number one rule of joint practices, everybody stay off the ground.
67:05I think how the Bills have approached their preseason process this year, their injuries, and this is actually a stat that came
67:12from banged up Bills over on Twitter. You guys follow him.
67:15He's awesome for Bills injury news if you're a Bills fan.
67:18Bills preseason injuries are down 47% year over year.
67:21Wow. Because they are practicing very smartly. They kind of stretched out their practice schedule a little bit, so they weren't doing so many back-to-backs.
67:28Guys had more recovery time. They were cautious about bringing guys back too early, so there wasn't any overuse injuries.
67:34They weren't getting exposed to injuries quite as often.
67:37And now they're actually going into the season healthier than they have in quite a while.
67:42And I think it's because Joe Brady understood, like, it's a long season.
67:46We've got 17 regular season games. We've got four playoff games, ideally, after that.
67:50Like, we can't be losing people in July and August.
67:53Not that we're taking it easy on guys, but we're doing it smart, right?
67:57We're lessening the load because it's such a long season.
68:00We're not throwing teammates into knees. And you look at some teams that are already really banged up, and you look at
68:06the Bills and how they did it. I think that's the model that teams should really adopt here.
68:12All right. Brett, I also have something that I need to get off of my chest here.
68:17This is my challenge flag that I'm throwing. Why are we in the shotgun on third and fourth and short, specifically on the goal line?
68:24I can't stand this. You know how hard teams have to work just to get closer to the goal, whether it's a
68:31first down, whether it's the end zone? I mean, millions.
68:33I'm talking billions of dollars. Go into making this job a little bit easier.
68:38And now you're going to say, nah, we're good.
68:40Kick it back a little bit. We've got to up the difficulty before we get into the end zone here.
68:46I got these numbers from next-gen stats. On third and short and fourth and short, the success rate is more than 10%
68:53higher when you are not in the shotgun versus in the shotgun.
68:56So when you are under center, it is a 10% higher success rate there.
69:00On the goal line, it's 6% higher. Everything's more difficult in the goal line.
69:05But it's 6% higher when you're under center instead of in the shotgun.
69:08Brett, I just don't understand it. Why are we making this more difficult?
69:12Why are we adding yardage to the goal of what we're trying to achieve here?
69:17I'll bet you anything the only exception is the Chiefs during peak Dynasty Chiefs years because they would do just random stuff
69:23on the goal line like shovel passes to Kelsey.
69:26That's a little different. If you are being creative like that, essentially, if you're Andy Reid, I'll give you a full pass
69:32because of what Andy Reid does when he is on the goal.
69:36If you're one of the greatest coaches of all time, you get a full.
69:40By the way, actually, hold on. Bonus challenge flag.
69:43The Chiefs just had an entire dynasty, and who knows?
69:46Maybe it's not over. We'll see this season. You know when the last time Andy Reid won Coach of the Year was?
69:52Ooh. 2002. It's been over two decades. He didn't get any Coach of the Year awards since taking over in Kansas City.
69:59He's been there for over 10 years. They've been to like five Super Bowls.
70:03They've won three of them. No Coach of the Year ever.
70:06That's an absolute travesty. You know what? That's our unified challenge flag.
70:10We're on the same sideline for that one because that's egregious.
70:13We appreciate you guys watching. This is a ton of fun.
70:16Hopefully, you guys had a lot of fun as well.
70:19This is sort of like Brett said in the middle of the show, a little taste of what you guys are going to get every single season.
70:27We're going to be with you every Monday and Friday.
70:30Obviously, on the Monday show, we'll be breaking down what we just saw sort of on Sunday.
70:35And then on the Friday show, we'll really be diving into the film and be breaking down a lot of stuff for
70:42you guys of why things are happening around the NFL the way that they are.
70:46So, yeah, man. Full steam ahead. We're rolling. And we'll see you guys for the next one.
70:51Appreciate you watching. Follow us on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts and analyze the game like a pro.
70:58And we will see you back here. It's a beautiful day for some football.
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