PodcastFrom NFL Fantasy Football Podcast

Brett & Trevor Break Down the BIGGEST Week 1 Games | NFL Pro Show

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 13 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Sep 11, 2026

Published

Fri, September 11, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Justin JeffersonBaker MayfieldBo NixBrashard SmithBryce YoungC.J. StroudCaleb WilliamsCourtland SuttonCyrus AllenDak PrescottDavante AdamsDavid MontgomeryDerrick HenryEmeka Egbuka

Player analysis

Player insights

Baker Mayfield

PositiveProjection91:54

The source expresses confidence in Baker Mayfield as a quarterback, noting that the Buccaneers' offensive line should be strong enough to help him succeed against the Bengals.

Insight page

Bo Nix

NegativeProjection68:38

Bo Nix is a polarizing player; while he has the ability to win big games, he is also volatile. The source notes that his reputation as a clutch fourth-quarter quarterback is largely driven by two specific games (Giants and Eagles) rather than a consistent season-long trend, as the Broncos' offense was 25th in scoring drive percentage in the first three quarters.

Insight page

Brashard Smith

PositiveUsage75:48

Brashard Smith is noted as a playmaker for the Chiefs who will contribute to a game plan focused on yards after catch to help the offense.

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Bryce Young

NegativeProjection33:17

Bryce Young is mentioned in the context of the 'trade bowl' matchup against Caleb Williams, with the source noting that both teams have evolved significantly since the trade that linked the two quarterbacks.

Insight page

C.J. Stroud

PositiveUsage8:14

C.J. Stroud thrives when operating under center, where he recorded 8.6 yards per attempt compared to 6.9 in shotgun. He excels at play-action fakes and locating space while turning his back to the defense. Improving the early-down run game is critical to keeping Stroud in favorable down-and-distance situations where he can utilize his preferred under-center structure.

Insight page

Caleb Williams

NegativeProjection33:23

Caleb Williams is highlighted as the focal point of the Bears' offense in the upcoming matchup against the Panthers, with the source emphasizing that the game will serve as a key indicator of his team's offensive line performance.

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Courtland Sutton

NegativeUsage85:27

Courtland Sutton is recognized for his high target volume in the Denver Broncos offense, though his role may be complemented by Jalen Waddell.

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Cyrus Allen

PositiveBreakout77:26

The source suggests Cyrus Allen could be a major difference-maker in the upcoming game, with one speaker jokingly labeling him 'wide receiver one'.

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Dak Prescott

PositiveProjection31:10

The source expects the Cowboys' offense to perform well, noting that if Dak Prescott is 'cooking' and the offensive line holds up, the team should be heavy favorites in their matchup against the Giants.

Insight page

Davante Adams

PositiveValue84:01

Davante Adams is considered the best option among receivers over 30 for a team looking to make a postseason run, specifically due to his immense value as a red-zone target.

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David Montgomery

PositiveUsage7:02

The Texans brought in David Montgomery to improve their run game, which struggled significantly on early downs last season. The team's 28.4% first-down rushing success rate was a league low, forcing them into frequent second-and-long situations. Montgomery is expected to provide better yards after contact, which should help the offense stay on schedule and allow C.J. Stroud to operate more effectively from under center.

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Derrick Henry

PositiveProjection96:52

The source maintains confidence that Derrick Henry ('King Henry') still has the ability to perform at a high level for the Ravens.

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Emeka Egbuka

NegativeInjury92:00

Emeka Egbuka is dealing with a toe injury, likely turf toe, but is practicing and expected to play. The source believes the Buccaneers will be fine if he plays at 80% capacity.

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Ja'Marr Chase

NegativeInjury93:41

Ja'Marr Chase has been on the injury report, which gives the source reservations about the Bengals' matchup against the Buccaneers' outside cornerbacks.

Insight page

Javonte Williams

PositiveUsage29:57

Javonte Williams is noted for his effectiveness as a north-south runner, particularly between the tackles, where he averaged 4.8 yards per carry and totaled 104 rushing yards over expected last season. He is also highlighted as being surprisingly effective as a rusher out of the shotgun.

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Jayden Daniels

PositiveProjection69:21

The source notes that Jayden Daniels' rookie season performance and his ability to make explosive plays are likely factored into the win probability models for the Commanders.

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Jeremiyah Love

PositiveRole10:30

The Cardinals are hoping that Jeremiah Love will emerge as their dynamic backfield option, complementing the steady presence of Tyler Allgeier.

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Jordan Love

PositiveProjection67:29

The source suggests that if Jordan Love were on the Cardinals' roster, they would be a wildcard team, highlighting his impact as a quarterback compared to the current roster's limitations.

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Josh Allen

PositiveProjection95:24

The source acknowledges the potential for a 'superhuman performance' from Josh Allen against the Texans' defense, despite picking the Texans to win the game.

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Justin Herbert

NegativeMatchup22:01

The source notes that Brian Flores' defensive scheme is specifically designed to force elite quarterbacks like Justin Herbert into mistakes by utilizing complex blitz packages and 'poach' coverage techniques that create pressure even when the offense has a numerical advantage.

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Justin Jefferson

PositiveUsage19:27

The source highlights the importance of monitoring Justin Jefferson when he is utilized in vertical routes, as his deep presence creates significant space underneath against the specific coverage schemes favored by Jonathan Gannon.

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NegativeUsage23:55

Justin Jefferson may see a decrease in individual production against the Packers' new quarters-heavy defense, as he is often used as a decoy to clear space for teammates. While he remains highly effective when aligned in the slot (8.3 explosive play per route rate), he is frequently used to draw coverage away from the middle of the field in specific route concepts like 'dagger' and 'mills'.

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveUsage75:48

Kenneth Walker is identified as a key playmaker for the Chiefs in 2025, specifically in a role that emphasizes yards after catch (YAC) to help mitigate pressure on Patrick Mahomes.

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Kyler Murray

NegativeMatchup20:37

The source questions whether the Packers have a viable defensive answer to pressure Kyler Murray effectively before he can exploit deep coverage looks, particularly in the absence of Micah Parsons.

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Lamar Jackson

PositiveProjection96:45

The source is a big believer in Lamar Jackson, noting that the Ravens' offense is expected to be better this season with improved guard play.

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Patrick Mahomes

NegativeUsage75:09

Coming off an injury, Patrick Mahomes may not be as mobile early in the season. The source expects the Chiefs to mitigate pressure by utilizing lower average depth of target (aDOT) passes and relying more on yards after catch (YAC) from playmakers like Kenneth Walker, Emmitt Johnson, and Brashard Smith.

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Spencer Brown

NegativeMatchup19:00

Spencer Brown faces a difficult matchup against Will Anderson, who generated a 41.7% pressure rate against him on 12 pass-rush reps in their previous meeting.

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Tee Higgins

NegativeInjury93:41

Tee Higgins has been on the injury report, leading to concerns about the Bengals' passing attack against the Buccaneers' secondary.

Insight page

Terry McLaurin

PositiveValue83:42

Terry McLaurin is viewed as having the most left in the tank among receivers over 30. While the Commanders are not expected to be a postseason team, the source suggests he could become a midseason trade candidate for a contender.

Insight page

Trey McBride

PositiveUsage67:29

Trey McBride is identified as a key component of the Cardinals' offensive roster, which is described as having good receivers and an improved offensive line.

Insight page

Tyler Allgeier

PositiveUsage10:26

Tyler Allgeier is highlighted as a valuable addition for the Cardinals, capable of providing consistent, on-schedule carries that help the offense maintain rhythm and complement the passing game.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

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1:49All right, sickos. Welcome back to the NFL Fantasy Football Show.

1:53This is everything that you need to know heading into week one.

1:56The schedule is set. We know which games we want to highlight.

2:00Here's everything that you need to know for every single team.

2:03How you doing? Big Friday, how you doing? Woo-hoo!

2:06Week one is here, which means so is NFL Pro.

2:09I'm done, bro. I'm happy, bro. I'm lit, bro.

2:11Let's lock in. Let's reset. Take a deep breath.

2:14Let's go, bro. I'm Trevor Sykema. That is Brett Kollmann.

2:17And we're going to run through every single game that we've got here in week one.

2:22But we're going to spend a little bit of extra dedicated time on some of them to break them down at a much deeper level.

2:29Brett, before we get into all of that, I've got a question for you.

2:33I was talking with Andrew Siciliano a couple of days ago.

2:37And I want to know the answer. Which one's a bigger liar?

2:40The preseason or week one? You actually tell me which one lies to you more every single NFL season.

2:46I honestly think it's week one. Like, just crazy stuff always happens week one.

2:50I know. Some of these games, by the way, like, we're going to pick all these games, obviously.

2:55And, you know, there's, like, win probabilities represented by percentages.

2:58We're going to get into that. There were some I was looking at and I was like, are you sure?

3:04Right. And maybe that's me just, like, kind of drinking the Kool-Aid on some of these underdogs here.

3:10But I think week one is so notorious for having weird stuff happen that even the percentages just don't, I don't trust it.

3:17I'll say that. I've been traumatized too many times by week ones in the past.

3:21Dude, I'm the same. And I'm kind of leaning into that a little bit.

3:25We're going to get into not just picking the games, but how much confidence we have in every single game that we're picking.

3:32And all I'll say is, I got some confidence in some teams that you might not expect.

3:37So we're going to get to that a little bit later in the show.

3:41But I want to start things out with a heavy hitter.

3:44I want to talk about Bills-Texans because this is a premier matchup, right?

3:48These are playoff teams. The Bills have been so close to getting over the hump, winning an AFC Championship, potentially winning a

3:55Super Bowl for the last couple of years. What an opportunity.

3:58Have some fun. Play for each other. Find a way to get it done.

4:02When teams are so evenly matched, when they are so good, I think you've got to peel things back a little bit

4:09to actually find the X factors of what's going on here.

4:12So, Brett, I'll let you set the table here for this first matchup.

4:16Bills-Texans, where do you think sort of the X factor is and where do you want to start this conversation?

4:22They brought in Dave Montgomery for a reason. I'll say that.

4:25This was a run game that was absolutely awful on early downs last year.

4:29And they just kept trying it over and over and over again.

4:33They called run plays on 54.4% of their first downs.

4:36The NFL average was about 50%. Doesn't seem like a big difference.

4:39It absolutely is a big difference. Hashtag establishing. Oh, yeah.

4:42They established the run all right. 28.4% first down rushing success rate, which was a league low.

4:48How's that for establishing it? They were just terrible at it.

4:51They led the league in second and long as a result.

4:54And the issue with that is if you're looking at CJ Stroud's strengths as a quarterback, he really thrives when he's under center.

5:01And their under center rate dropped like a rock when they were in second and long because, of course, it did.

5:07Right? You're going to be a pass-heavy team typically in second and long, which means you're going to be in gun a lot more.

5:14And if you're looking at CJ's splits of under center versus shotgun, went from 8.6 yards per attempt under center down to 6.9 in gun.

5:22He damn near tripled his EPA per drop back under center versus gun.

5:26He really thrives in terms of the rhythm and the structure of under center.

5:30He thrives in that. He loves hard play action fakes.

5:33He actually is better at turning his back to the defense and then whipping his eyes back around, locating space, attacking space.

5:39He's more comfortable doing that than he is just being in gun, which is not common for a young quarterback.

5:45Fakes the handoff, backs up deeper, now unloads. Jalen Knoll inside the 5.

5:49He's in the end zone! And so when you have that bad of a first down run game and you're always in

5:56second and long and you're always in gun, yeah, they were going to be a worse offense overall.

6:01So I look at what the Texans have done this offseason to rebuild their offensive line and bringing in Dave Montgomery, who's

6:08just better at getting yards after contact. Right. I have to imagine, you know, if they're even an average first down run

6:14game, the cascading effect on the rest of the Texans offense could make them pretty potent.

6:19There's a couple of teams that I think went with that approach this offseason.

6:23Like you mentioned the Texans obviously getting David Montgomery.

6:26Like I think of Tyler Algier going to the Cardinals is another one.

6:30And obviously they're hoping that Jeremiah Love is sort of their dynamic back.

6:33But Tyler Algier, like he can get you three, four, five carries, right?

6:37And sometimes just something that's on schedule and expected can be enough or even maybe the word better is what I'm looking for.

6:44And so I think at that point with the Texans and being better in the run game, that's job number one for them.

6:51We know their defense is going to be elite, but you have to be more on schedule as a rushing attack to

6:57be able to complement the passing game a little bit more.

7:01On the other side of things, I want to talk about how the Bills are sort of going to defend the run here.

7:08Because I'm excited, but I'm a little nervous right off the bat here now that Jim Leonard is their defensive coordinator.

7:14I'm excited because Jim Leonard's an attacking style defense, right?

7:17And those are always pretty fun. Like he's going to throw a lot of things at the offensive line.

7:22He's going to throw a lot of things at CJ Stroud.

7:26But when it comes to overall run defense, I have my worries about how this roster is currently constructed.

7:31Because Sean McDermott was one of the longest tenured coaches that we had in the NFL before he got fired.

7:37It's been years of them stockpiling players, not just starters, but also depth players, for that even front zone heavy defense.

7:44And the odd front attacking style defense that Leonard wants to run, again, I'm excited to see it.

7:49But I'm a little nervous about how it's going to be right out of the gate.

7:54You've got players like TJ Sanders and Ed Oliver who are going to have to play that like 4-I or, you know,

8:00even sometimes like 2-I defensive interior type of alignment.

8:03And I'm not sure that like that's their best role, like Dwayne Carter kind of behind him.

8:08Again, like I'm worried that these are all kind of three technique defensive tackles that you're putting in these different alignments.

8:14You're asking Deion Walker to, he's going to have to play nose at times.

8:18And he's a big, massive defensive lineman. But when you're big, I think there's pros and cons to play a nose tackle.

8:25The cons is that... Especially when you're tall too.

8:28Yeah, that's the problem. He's so tall and he's going to lose leverage.

8:31Now, you know, they signed Greg Gaines and Greg Gaines can be that nose tackle for you.

8:36But even in Tampa last year, like he had good plays, but he also had some bad plays as well.

8:42So I'm worried about this Bills defensive line that allowed 5 yards per carry to running backs last season, which was the third most in the NFL.

8:50They actually hit ball carriers at the line of scrimmage 47.8% of the time, which is 4th best in the NFL.

8:57But allowed almost 4 yards per contact after that.

8:59Still running hard, dragging tacklers down inside the 10.

9:02Like I think Sanders is an attacking defensive lineman.

9:05I think Oliver is an attacking defensive lineman. Dwayne Carter, these guys that I mentioned.

9:09But when it comes to those early downs, really defending the run, I get a little bit worried here with Buffalo.

9:15And where the Josh Allen versus Texans defense side of the matchup is where a lot of our eyeballs are going to go.

9:22I think each side of the ball is going to get theirs a little bit.

9:27That's going to be the heavyweight fight that a lot of people are paying attention to.

9:31But it might be who has the higher floor against their weakness.

9:35The Texans run game versus the Bills run defense that I think could actually maybe be the differentiating factor here.

9:41So the stat that you mentioned, right? They were 4th best in terms of making contact with the running back at the line of scrimmage.

9:48But still allowing so many yards after contact that they gave up a lot on the ground.

9:53One of the interesting oddities of the Bills last season was that even though they allowed so many yards on the ground,

10:00they still dominated in time of possession. And they still had a bunch of games where they gave up like $1.70 plus

10:07and still won time of possession and still won those games.

10:10I think they went like 6-2 somewhere around there.

10:13I have to go dig for the actual numbers.

10:15But it was kind of this weird trend where they gave up so many explosive runs that it essentially affected them as

10:22if they gave up an explosive pass. And so they were able to get back on the field and let Josh Allen do his thing.

10:29And it didn't really hurt them because they could just go back to grinding clock.

10:34And so, yeah, they gave up a lot of run yards, but it didn't really hurt them in the macro sense.

10:40You look at how Houston matches up with them, and I don't necessarily think they're going to be ripping off explosive runs

10:46like, say, Bichon did in that game last year.

10:49I think it's going to be a lot of 4, 5, 6, 7 yards at a time.

10:54And if you can take away that time of possession advantage that Buffalo's really leaned on, now they don't really have anything left.

11:01And so that's what I kind of worry about for them.

11:04You know, it's not about can they stop the run.

11:07It's can they stop the six-yard runs. Like, if they give up 30, it's okay.

11:12Just Josh gets back on the field quicker. If they give up six and then five and then six again over and

11:18over and over, and you limit this to like nine possessions per team, make it like a Panthers game.

11:24I don't like that for Buffalo, especially with the Texans defense.

11:27Yeah, a couple of things here to wrap this up before we go to the next game.

11:32Will Anderson specifically. We got a specific matchup here from NGS.

11:35He recorded two and a half sacks in week 12 in 2025 versus the Bills.

11:40Five of his eight pressures and one of those sacks came against right tackle Spencer Brown.

11:45So obviously he played well against Spencer Brown. Generated 41.7% quarterback pressure against Spencer Brown on 12 pass rush reps.

11:51So I think that matchup, that's going to be one to watch there.

11:54And then the Bills haven't beaten D'Amico Ryans in Houston since he became the head coach there.

12:00So can we get a Bills victory in Houston?

12:02You've got to get the ball out. If you do not, you are a dead duck against this defense.

12:08The next game we're going to touch on is the Packers and the Vikings.

12:12And we're going to be talking about the NFC North all year long.

12:16This is going to be a little cutthroat division in football.

12:19This is going to be a pretty meaty game preview here.

12:22We're going to get, we're going to get pretty granular with this.

12:26And one of why we think the result is going to be what we envision it's going to be.

12:32So Brett, I'll let you start again here with this one.

12:35What are you focusing on with this game? It's a defensive identity shift in Green Bay.

12:40And they kind of have to, because again, you know, Mike is out.

12:44He's not going to be back for a while.

12:46And so it's really going to be on Jonathan Gannon to figure out like, how can I make, you know, something out of nothing, so to speak.

12:54Not that they're like completely bereft of talent. We love McKinney.

12:58We love edge, but Micah not being there means you have to get creative.

13:02And if you're looking at the style that Gannon has typically employed, you know, he really does love quarters.

13:07It's a really, really important coverage. And the Packers are going to be running it a lot this year.

13:13They didn't necessarily run it a lot last year under Jeff Halfley.

13:17Halfley really liked a lot more cover three and cover two.

13:20If you're looking at just percentage of quarters usage, they were only about 14.4% of their snaps using quarters.

13:25That's not very high. That's 10th lowest in the league.

13:28You compare that to Jonathan Gannon, who has been top five in quarters usage rate in three of the last five seasons

13:35in which he's been either a DC or a head coach.

13:38And it makes sense why their quarters usage rate went up to 35% this preseason.

13:43That's damn near a 20% jump, right? So I expect a lot of quarters in this game, especially because they're going to try to limit explosives.

13:50But remember, just because it's a coverage that in general is good against explosives doesn't mean there aren't certain concepts that are

13:57kind of designed to get explosive plays against this type of defensive structure.

14:01I think that a villain arc that Jonathan Gannon could have here is, you know how Two-Face, the Batman villain, just flips a coin everywhere, right?

14:09I mean, if he's got a really good squad where quarters are going really well, he could just sit on the field and just flip the quarter.

14:17Just flicking it, just staring across. Just staring at the other team's offense coordinator.

14:21You know we're running. You know we're running. But I also think that because of the way that this is set up,

14:27with Gannon running as much quarters as he does, it might be a successful day for the Minnesota Vikings, but not a big Justin Jefferson day.

14:35And that might sound crazy to some people when they think, okay, well, hold on.

14:40If it's going to be a great Vikings day through the air and in the passing game, Justin Jefferson's got to be going off.

14:47Well, not necessarily because they're probably going to want Justin Jefferson to be on the line of scrimmage in the slot because

14:53it's going to be these mills and dagger concepts.

14:56They're going to be able to create a lot of space.

14:59And I think that if Justin Jefferson is aligned in that spot, he's often going to be actually the decoy for these routes and for these concepts.

15:07The numbers kind of back that up as well.

15:10Jefferson hasn't caught a pass on the ball in the slot versus quarters since 2023.

15:14On a Tuesday in the fall. So don't tempt us.

15:17We've got that data. But when they are attacking quarters, they're using Jefferson as the bait.

15:22They're using him as the disguise. If you are on the ball in the slot against quarters, you're taken off.

15:28You are going to be somebody who is going to get deep down the field.

15:32Jefferson is doing nothing against quarters. But it's not that he's doing nothing when he's on the ball in the slot.

15:39Jefferson recorded an 8.3 explosive play per route rate when on the ball in the slot.

15:43That was ninth highest among wide receivers. So he gets usage when he's on the ball in the slot.

15:49Just not against quarters. So for that, let's bring in these two concepts.

15:53Mills and dagger. All right. I first want to take a look at this dagger concept here.

15:58All right. What we're looking at is it's not true quarters coverage here, but this is quarter quarter half.

16:04So we're going to be attacking the quarters side of the field with these two receivers.

16:08Now, the dagger concept is going to involve the inside player, taking a vertical route here to clear out this defender, and

16:15then having a deep dig route underneath to open up this as the throwing window.

16:19That is the idea here with this concept. This player right here, it's not Justin Jefferson, but I think that it can

16:26be Justin Jefferson because if he were on the line of scrimmage, that tells you that this guy's getting vertical.

16:32And when Justin Jefferson's getting vertical, this guy's got to pay attention.

16:35This guy's got to pay attention. Heck, maybe even this guy's got to pay attention because it's Justin Jefferson.

16:41So when you get all those eyeballs, you're really going to be able to open up things over the middle.

16:47And that's exactly what happens here. You have the clear out route.

16:51It takes that inside safety defender all the way up the field.

16:54And boom, there's the throwing window wide open right over the middle of the field.

16:59And it ends up going for a touchdown. So that's the dagger concept where I think that Jefferson can be utilized as

17:05that vertical player that's clearing things out. This is a Mills concept.

17:09So we're going up against cover two here. So again, it's not quite quarters, but the idea is the same.

17:15What we have here is it's a dig route that's going over the middle.

17:19And then we're combining that with a post route over top of it.

17:23Now, the idea here is that we're opening up the deep route, not the dig route over the middle of the field.

17:29That becomes a distraction route. So I can see Justin Jefferson's the one who's actually running the post here on this play.

17:36This is Justin Jefferson. But I could see him being that player that's going over the middle of the field because once

17:42again, if this is Justin Jefferson right here as the decoy or distraction player, this guy's got to pay attention.

17:48This guy's got to pay attention. This guy, this guy, everybody's focusing in on Justin Jefferson coming over the middle of the field right there.

17:56So in quarters, this guy would get more aggressive here.

17:59This player would be looking to pick him up as he's crossing the field.

18:03And that would open things up here for the post route.

18:06Now, Jefferson runs this extremely well. And it opens wide open for him against cover two.

18:11Against quarters, it'd be a little bit tighter of a throw.

18:14But as you guys can see, this is the space here that opens up with that route concept because this player was

18:21too distracted by this guy who's coming over the middle of the field.

18:25And it opened things up for Jefferson to be able to run that post route to find that open space.

18:31So those are the two concepts that I think can really work against cover for and against what Jonathan Gannon wants to do.

18:37It's just a matter of where Justin Jefferson is.

18:40I think he could be an excellent decoy player.

18:43And it might be a big day for the Vikings and for some other receiver.

18:47But they'll take that. And Jefferson's going to take that all day if it means that they're getting a win.

18:53So when Jefferson is a part of those concepts and when he is the player who is lined up in the slot

19:00on the ball, the explosive play percentage with the Vikings having Jefferson at that alignment is 15.7%.

19:05All other alignments, 13.1. So clearly using Jefferson in that role, even if it's just a decoy, it works.

19:10It does not have to just go to him.

19:13Vikings gain nearly a full yard more 0.9 with Jefferson on the ball in the slot.

19:18So there are so many numbers that point to.

19:20When he is in that alignment, he is the player who the defense has to respect because he's getting vertical and you

19:27have to pay attention to Jefferson Jefferson when he's getting vertical.

19:30But it opens things up underneath and in different areas of the field against that specific coverage that Jonathan Gannon loves to run.

19:37And, you know, going back to that Micah injury, again, I know Packers fans are tired of hearing about how much it affects them, but it really does.

19:45You know, the Packers were kind of guilty of using the rush as the coverage last year, right?

19:51Like they were able to kind of get away with not being awesome at corner because Micah was able to generate so much pressure.

19:58And their defense really, really kind of fell off a cliff when he was not on the field.

20:03So if you're just looking at the splits of Parsons on the field versus Parsons off the field, time to throw was

20:10obviously faster when he was on the field because it had to be.

20:14Their blitz rate went down by about 8%. Again, doesn't sound like a lot.

20:18That is a chasm in the NFL. Their pressure percentage went up.

20:21Their time to pressure fell by almost, not even almost, more than two-tenths of a second.

20:26And success percentage allowed went down roughly 7% to 8% as well.

20:30Like he is so monumentally important to them. And they got away with so much on the back end just because Micah existed.

20:37Without him on the field, I'm not sure they have a great answer for getting to Kyler Murray before Kyler Murray can

20:43unload deep down the field against these quarters looks.

20:46Yeah. Parsons is a change the math type of a player.

20:49Those are the most valuable players that we have in the game.

20:53You know, whether you're taking up an extra gap, whether you're forcing an extra player to stay in and block, like whatever

20:59that looks, whether you're taking multiple eyes in coverage, change the math type of players are the ones that are the most valuable and most impactful.

21:07And I know on the other side of things, I know you want to talk about Brian Flores because he's a math guy himself.

21:14The mad scientist. Yeah. A lot of times the math is, oh, I have 11 players?

21:19That's 11 players that I can blitz at any point in time.

21:22The math is, f*** you, we're the Vikings. I love watching this team play, man.

21:27And I need people to understand not just the numbers, but also like how this works and why it works.

21:33Because you'd think teams would just like have their typical blitz answers against Minnesota and like they wouldn't be able to do this.

21:40But like just the way they call these blitzes is so hilarious and it's so effective.

21:44Even after years of doing it, they had a 37% blitz rate out of two high.

21:49The NFL average is 12%. They're the only team above 24%.

21:52Like they're just not like anybody else at all.

21:55So here is how these blitzes work. This is a pick that they got against the Chargers last year.

22:01Remember, Justin Herbert, great quarterback. Hard to fool him.

22:03Hard to really make him, force him into mistakes sometimes.

22:06But that's what Brian Flores does. So they start off with what's called kind of a dirty bunch here to the field.

22:13So it's three guys, you know, relatively close to each other.

22:16And the Vikings are in a quarters look. That means this corner here, he's responsible for what's called the vertical of number one.

22:23So if number one here, we're counting outside in one, two, three.

22:27If the vertical of number one goes deep, the corner's taking that.

22:30The safety is responsible for the vertical of number two.

22:33So if the number two runs deep, that's his guy.

22:36You got Harrison Smith here. He's responsible for the vertical of number three.

22:40How is that possible? He's on the other side of the field.

22:44Well, we call this a poach technique. The Fangio world likes to call it tricks, T-R-I-X.

22:48So you got one, two, three, all accounted for.

22:51And then this corner backside is going to be manned up.

22:54Not all zone coverages means everybody's in zone. Sometimes you have one guy who's in man while everybody else is in zone.

23:01We call it match zone principles. So that's what this look is like pre-snap.

23:05The actual pressure here, right? We have three guys kind of doing a contain rush to the field.

23:10They're picked up by five blockers here. So it's three on five.

23:14They were really worried about getting overloaded to the field.

23:17You have this linebacker. His only job is to pick the inside hip of this tackle in order to free up the edge to loop around inside.

23:25Ideally, he gets unblocked. But worst case scenario, you get an edge matched up with a running back.

23:30That's a winnable matchup. So that's the entire goal here.

23:33We have three guys drawing attention. We have the pick on the tackle to free up the one-on-one and really make it a one on a running back.

23:42That's the pressure. That's the coverage. This motion here, we're going to talk about the changes in quarters rules here in response to motion.

23:49As this ball is snapped, we get a late change of who's the number one and who's the number two.

23:55So the rules still apply, right? The corner up top, he's carrying vertical number one.

23:59The safety up top, his number two is pass blocking.

24:02So he's now free to roam and just go find work.

24:05Harrison Smith in the corner down bottom. Number one and number two switch.

24:09So the final number two, he's picking that up vertical.

24:12And the final number one, the corner's picking that up vertical.

24:15We do get pressure on Herbert. He's now panicking.

24:18The key here are the hook droppers. We have two hook droppers in a quarters fire zone.

24:23That means two guys are responsible for basically the entire field 10 yards and under.

24:28That's the weakness to this coverage is you're going to have a lot of space over the middle and underneath.

24:34You need really rangy linebackers to pull it off.

24:36Now, because they do get pressure, remember the pressure oftentimes is the coverage in this defense.

24:41Herbert's kind of scrambling around. He's trying to find something.

24:44Desperation heave gets picked by one of those hook droppers.

24:47That is the general basis of this coverage is we're going to force quarterbacks into mistakes.

24:52Even when we do have wide open windows on the field, we're trusting that we can get to you before you can beat us.

24:59We're going to stop deep pass attempts by really just eliminating your ability to stay in the pocket long enough to throw them.

25:06And if you can beat us over the middle quickly, great.

25:09You know, tip of the cap. We'll make you do that 12 times in a row to march down the field and score.

25:16Really, the only offense that I've seen do that to Minnesota repeatedly is one coordinated by Ben Johnson, who really likes to lean into that.

25:23He's going to go under center. He's going to do hard play action fakes.

25:27He's going to put even more stress on those linebackers because not only do they have all that space to cover underneath,

25:34now they have to step up and play the run and get back to their landmarks.

25:39It's a lot easier said than done. Most teams are not disciplined enough to do that for a 10 play drive when

25:45they're getting blitzed on half of those dropbacks. And that's what makes this defense so fun.

25:50And it's also why they're basically the only team that plays defense this way.

25:54You know, listening to you talk there and just the more that I've watched Brian Flores over the years, the most important

26:01player on the field when it comes to facing a Brian Flores defense is probably the guy who's calling protections.

26:07Like it's either the center, if that's the center's job, or if it's the quarterback's job, they have to be on their P's and Q's.

26:14They have to be so detailed in where they think the pressure is going to come from, how the offensive line or

26:21any of the blockers are going to sort of rotate, how they're going to handle it, because you're right.

26:26That is how Brian Flores wants to play defense.

26:29He wants to attack you. And if you can't neutralize it up front, sometimes the rest doesn't matter.

26:34Cowboys and Giants. Any NFC East matchup is always one that's going to have a lot of eyeballs on it.

26:40There's always a ton of excitement for the Cowboys, but there's a ton of excitement for this new era for the Giants as well.

26:47Brett, I know people are excited long-term about the Giants.

26:50Should they be week one? What do we think here with the Giants and Cowboys?

26:55I have my reservations, man. And it's not because I don't like some of the talent, right?

27:00Like I love the Arvel Reese pick, the Carter pick last year, taking Francis Balanoa, top 10, I thought was a very prudent move.

27:07Like he could play tackle, but he's going to be a guard for them.

27:11And I think he's going to pay dividends. There's so much to like about this team.

27:16With the coaching staff that was assembled, it's all of the guys that we have criticized over and over and over again

27:22for years in terms of not just play calling, but like macro management of a game.

27:27Sure. How many times were we just screaming at the TV watching the Ravens, you know, when they were kicking a field

27:34goal when they shouldn't have or punting when they shouldn't have or not giving the ball to Henry when they should have,

27:40not letting Lamar cook when they should have. And it's just, how can you have all of those coaches in the same

27:47room and be confident in the product? Like I kind of have to see it to believe it at this point.

27:53I'll say that. You're hoping that it's just a big brain trust, right?

27:57And that a lot of those guys with all of their NFL experience is going to come to elevate both sides of that team.

28:04One area that has to be elevated no matter what, bar none, is the Giants defensive line.

28:09Because the season almost goes as the Giants defensive line goes, because it's a lot of the same players minus Dexter Lawrence,

28:16which is not really the sentence that you want to say, right?

28:19You never want to go like, oh, the defensive line needed to be a lot better than it was last year.

28:25They got rid of Dexter Lawrence. That's not an addition by subtraction.

28:29That's quite literally just a subtraction. Might be a double subtraction.

28:32Maybe it's a division. We're going all the way to that point.

28:36When you look at the Giants last season, allowed 2.0 yards before contact.

28:40That was the most in the NFL allowed 3.3 yards after contact per carry.

28:44That was the fifth most in the NFL and allowed 56.6 rush EPA per play.

28:48Most in the NFL. I am also excited about the speed that they have at, I'll just call it outside linebacker, right?

28:55Because it could be Abdul Carter. It could be Arvel Reese.

28:58It could be Brian Burns. It could be Kayvon Thibodeau.

29:01Those guys are awesome. Predators. Be hunters, right? Go hunt the football wherever it's going to go.

29:06You only get to do that if your interior defensive line can hold up.

29:10Because if your interior defensive line is similar to what it was the previous season, well, guess what?

29:16Now Arvel Reese has to sit at inside linebacker at all times and he basically can't leave the tackle box.

29:22You might have to do the same thing with Abdul Carter as well.

29:26The linebacker level is going to be a, I think, telltale sign of how good this defense is based on how much freedom those guys have.

29:33And you don't get that freedom unless you eat your vegetables, unless you defend the run the way that you need to.

29:40And I'm worried about that with the Giants right off the bat because it's largely a lot of the same players that

29:46they had last year that's going to be trying to do the same thing.

29:51And it's not like the Cowboys can't run the ball, right?

29:54You know, Javante had a kind of a career resurgence in Dallas.

29:57And if you're looking at the types of runs that they're going to be using, a lot of it is stuff between the tackles, right?

30:05They rushed between the tackles, or rather Javante Williams rushed between the tackles 60.7% of the time on his carries last season.

30:11That was ninth highest among all running backs that had at least 100 carries.

30:16So like they pound the rock inside over and over and over again.

30:19When rushing inside, Williams averaged 4.8 yards per carry.

30:22That was seventh most among that same group of running backs.

30:25And he totaled 104 rushing yards over expected, which was the sixth most.

30:29So while they didn't have the highest overall run pass rate, when they did run the ball, it was inside physical north-south.

30:36And in particular, also side note, a lot of it was from shotgun.

30:40Javante was a more effective rusher from the gun than under center, which is not common.

30:44But he was really good at just kind of picking his way through traffic, you know, seeing who won, who lost up front.

30:51Not as effective as like prime Le'Veon, but like stylistically very similar.

30:55And when you have that kind of complimentary threat in the backfield, and you're just running between the tackles over and over

31:01and over again at a diminished DT room, to say the least.

31:05I'm nervous, man. Like, and then you also have to deal with CD and Pickens and Dak.

31:10Yeah, we didn't even talk about the actual strength of this team, because as you can tell on the show, That's the side dish, man.

31:17Right. We're talking, we obviously are going to talk about like the guys who you want us to talk about from like

31:24the quarterback position and things like that. But like football, the reason why it's the best game in the world is just how detailed it is.

31:32And like, yes, the big hitter, your stars got to play well.

31:35And we think the Cowboys stars are going to play well.

31:38But if Dak's cooking and the offensive lines playing at least reasonably well, which another interesting matchup of this one, the Cowboys

31:45offensive tackles specifically, you've got Terrence Steele and Tyler Guyton.

31:48I love the interior. Interior is rock solid. It's Tyler Smith.

31:51It's Tyler Booker. It's Cooper BB. Rock solid. But if you get one of those offensive tackles on islands too many times,

31:58a cave on Thibodeau or Brian Burns or Abdul Carter or Arville Reese, that might be a way that you disturb old Dak there in the backfield.

32:06So that could be an X factor for the Giants in a matchup that we're not exactly highlighting a lot of X factors for the Giants here.

32:14That's, I think, how you can maybe have a major difference making part on this game.

32:19But I think it's too much Cowboys. It's going to be too much Cowboys offense.

32:23I think the defense could be a lot better with Christian Parker.

32:27I'm a big fan of him now being the defense coordinator in Dallas and specifically what the personnel is going to allow him to do.

32:34And I think that we see that week one.

32:37So, you know, I'm thinking that the Cowboys should be pretty big favorites in this game.

32:42Yeah. Next Gen Stats has the Cowboys win probability at 57%, which seems low.

32:46And then you realize that's 57% on the road.

32:48Yeah. If this was in Dallas, this would be north of 60%, in my opinion.

32:53And I agree with that, by the way. I do too.

32:56If we're just trying to just mirror with our hands behind our back the whole time, we're at their mercy.

33:02You know what I'm saying? He knows where the ball is going.

33:06You got to use your feet, which you got good feet, but you don't want to have to use only that.

33:12Use your weapons. Maybe the weirdest game of the weekend, because I don't necessarily know what to expect.

33:17Bears-Panthers. A reckoning, again, on that Bears-Panthers trade that produced both quarterbacks at their respective destinations.

33:22Bryce Young and Caleb Williams. That's true. It's the trade bowl once again.

33:26I played at least twice, I think, since that trade happened.

33:29But both teams are just so different now compared to where they were at when that trade happened.

33:34And both teams just win in such uniquely odd ways, I guess is the best way to put it.

33:40I don't really know what to expect with this one.

33:43The heart palpitations continue. Would you have expected anything else from the Bears?

33:47This is a little bit of a toss-up here for me in terms of who's going to win this game in week one.

33:54But I am going to take a little bit more of a macro-level approach because I think that this game, whatever the

34:00result is, is going to be a good indicator of what we can expect from these groups for at least the first

34:07half of the season, maybe the entire season. And that is when the Panthers' defensive line goes up against the Chicago Bears' offensive line.

34:14The Bears' offensive line was really, really good last season.

34:17Chicago, 31.2 pressure rate allowed last season. That was top 10 in the NFL.

34:21They were really good when it came to impact run blocking as well.

34:25This is just a really, really good offensive line unit for the Chicago Bears last year.

34:30So this is the strength of their team. For the Panthers, their defensive line was a major weakness of their team.

34:3626.6 team pressure rate in 2025. That was the second lowest in the NFL.

34:40They bring in Jalen Phillips, which is great. They needed to allocate a lot of their free agency money to this part of their team specifically.

34:48So you bring in Jalen Phillips and you feel pretty good about it because, okay, it's going to be Jalen Phillips.

34:54It's going to be Nick Scorin. It's going to be Derek Brown and Prince Uman Mielan and all these guys.

35:00But Nick Scorin now out for the year. He had the most pressures on the team last year at 32.

35:06And unfortunately, he's not going to be a part of that anymore.

35:10But is Jalen Phillips sort of enough for them?

35:12I think that's the big question. If we get out of this game and it's a lot of the same thing.

35:18Panthers couldn't get after Caleb Williams. They couldn't beat the Bears offensive line.

35:22No pressure generated. You get a little bit worried.

35:25You get worried that it wasn't going to be enough for Carolina.

35:29Or at least that the burn was going to be slower than you wanted it to for this team to really turn into a good pass rushing unit.

35:37And then on the flip side, I think the Chicago Bears, which very much needs their offensive line to be just as

35:43good as it was last year, if not better.

35:46That remains. Touchdown! Touchdown Bears! Touchdown Bears! Now, if the result is different, let's say Carolina's defensive line does look a lot better.

35:53A lot of those young guys did take the next step.

35:56Jalen Phillips looks fantastic for this team. The linebacker level looks even better now that Devin Lloyd is there.

36:02Right? If that looks good against Chicago's offensive line.

36:05Brand new team then. Now we flip the scripts.

36:07Now we go, okay, this is Euro Evero defense has more talent than he has over the last three years.

36:13You feel pretty good about it for Carolina moving forward.

36:16And now on that flip side, you have to say, oh boy, hold on a second here.

36:21We had major question marks about the Chicago Bears defense.

36:24We know that they're going to give up some points and some yards and some long drives.

36:29Now you're telling me their offensive line might be taking a step back from what it was last year?

36:35That's not a good sign for the Chicago Bears.

36:38So, I don't know exactly what the result is going to be.

36:41But I can tell you that there's going to be a pretty strong narrative one way or the other for both of

36:48these teams and both of these very passionate fan bases based on whatever the result is going to be of that matchup.

36:54I think they want to end drives faster. Because if you're looking at how they won last year, it was by limiting total possessions per game.

37:02Because remember, this is a sport where there's a finite number of points that could be scored per possession.

37:08So, if there's less possessions in a game, that means there's less points in a game, which means each point matters more.

37:14And if they could just get a takeaway, which they were excellent at getting a takeaway, especially in the third quarter, right?

37:21After game plans are kind of thrown out the window, now we're just playing football.

37:25They were so good at getting pivotal turnovers in the third quarter, keeping games tight, limiting possessions.

37:30And they did that by just kind of not breaking on defense.

37:34They had the fourth most plays per drive against them on defense.

37:376.3, that's a lot of plays per drive. But they were second fewest in terms of total drives faced.

37:43So again, you're going to get down there. You're going to score on them.

37:47Just not a lot of points because you don't have a lot of possessions.

37:51And if they can just get one takeaway, they're going to keep it close enough where they can turn that takeaway into a win.

37:58That's how they won the NFC South, honestly. Their total metrics, not great.

38:02But their win-loss record, half decent because they just needed that one extra play.

38:06It's a style of football that it only takes a little bit of luck for you to take that a mile.

38:13You know, sometimes, yeah, like you're saying, like if you're in a shootout, it's going to take a lot of luck in

38:19order for you to really be able to keep up with other teams that maybe you'd be punching above your weight class for.

38:26But the Panther style of play won them a division, albeit below 500 in a record.

38:31But it's because they were able to let luck be a big factor when things went their way.

38:36And I just want to say, like, a lot of times, like, luck is like this taboo word in football.

38:42Like, people go like, oh, if you use luck or if you bring up the word luck, you're trying to discredit or

38:49discount, like, what a team is doing. Every team in the NFL needs luck.

38:53Every Super Bowl winner has luck. Do they have talent?

38:56Sure, but they also have luck. Whether it's health, whether it's the ball bouncing their way, there is something involved because there

39:02is part of this game that no matter how much you try to control, there's a little bit that always exists that you can't.

39:10And the result of that is either lucky or unlucky.

39:12Luck does not discredit how good your team may be and how good they execute.

39:17It's just a part of the game. Hey, the bottom line is we just fight.

39:21We don't know how to do anything else, but just keep fighting.

39:25And we always finish because that's who we are.

39:28I mean, you could argue that there was a dynasty built off of luck in Kansas City.

39:33Not to say that they only won because of luck.

39:36Like, it's okay, Chiefs fans. Like, we can have a grown-up conversation about this.

39:40They were an excellent team. One of the best teams of the modern era that also happened to have a couple high-leverage moments that went their way.

39:48They were a little bit lucky, and they were able to seize on that opportunity over and over and over again.

39:54Like, they were a team, you give them an inch, they'll take a mile, right?

39:59I mean, just a couple years ago, that was a team that, when they got to the Super Bowl against the Eagles, look woefully undergunned.

40:06It's intercepted by Zach Bong! But along the way, in the regular season that year, had multiple moments of just outright luck.

40:13Like, they played against the Raiders, and they dropped the snap.

40:16They had a field goal blocked in Denver that enabled them to win that game.

40:20Like, just stuff happened with the Chiefs that can only be explained by luck.

40:24But it's the truly great teams that are able to then turn luck into championships because of how good they are.

40:31Let's be great, dawg! Let's be great! Let's be us!

40:34You gotta take advantage of luck. Which is, like, seizing the opportunity when you get lucky, that is something that, obviously, the great teams do.

40:41Yeah. And some people would argue that's what Denver did last year, right?

40:45Like, they were a team that won a lot of one-possession games.

40:49They kind of out-chiefs'd the Chiefs in some ways.

40:51And, you know, they unfortunately got really unlucky late in the year with a quarterback injury that, I don't know about you,

40:58I think if Bo Nix was healthy, they probably would have beat the Patriots and gone to the Super Bowl and maybe

41:04been more competitive against Seattle than New England was.

41:07So sometimes you're lucky, sometimes you're just flat-out unlucky, and it ruins a very promising season.

41:12Now we have these two teams with history of both luck and bad luck recently facing off on Monday night.

41:18And I gotta say, I want to start off by dispelling a rumor that I accidentally played into last year.

41:24This rumor was Bo Nix is a tremendous fourth-quarter quarterback and that, you know, this team would be awful for three quarters

41:30then turn it on in the fourth quarter, and it was all because of Bo Nix, and he was spectacular.

41:36And, man, when Sean Payton, like, really, you know, took the leash off and let Bo be Bo late in games, that's

41:43when they were at their best, and they should do that this year.

41:47But not necessarily. Again, I played into this because I remembered the Eagles game and I remember the Giants game, which happened

41:53to be the only two games that they were actually trailing going into the fourth quarter the entire year when Bo was healthy.

42:00And those two games, especially because they happened early in the season, kind of stamped the Broncos' reputation for being this clutch fourth-quarter team.

42:07But if you look at the other 17 games that they were in, I think it was 17 games, I'm not a

42:14math major, they actually weren't that great of a fourth-quarter offense.

42:17And if you're looking at, like, just scoring drive percentages, right, like the percentage of your drives in which you're scoring quarter

42:23by quarter, the entire year, the first three quarters, they were 25th in scoring drive percentage.

42:28In the fourth quarter, they were ninth. But if you take out the Eagles and the Giants game, they dropped down to, again, well below average.

42:36So they had these two games where they were exceptional in the fourth quarter, those two games, mind you, that were only

42:42possible to win because the defense was playing its ass off in the fourth quarter.

42:47All right, think back to that Jackson dart interception on third and five with five minutes to go.

42:52Like, if they don't throw a pick there and give the Broncos 19 yards to go to get a touchdown, do the

42:59Broncos even win that game and have this fourth-quarter reputation?

43:02Probably not. If the Eagles didn't go three and out, three and out, three and out in the fourth quarter, they were leading 17-3.

43:09Did the Broncos win that game? Probably not. So I would argue that, yes, Bo capitalized on the opportunity that was given to him.

43:16But if you're looking at a season-long sample size, they would not have had this fourth-quarter offensive reputation without those two games.

43:23And those two games wouldn't have happened without their defense being arguably the best in the league.

43:28Yeah, and I think that it's part of a much grander Bo Nix conversation where I feel like he's so polarizing because

43:34everyone just wants it to be very black and white of like, Bo Nix is awful, he's not a good quarterback, and

43:41Bo Nix is incredible, he's a super... And that's not what I'm saying, by the way.

43:45I do think, like, I like Bo. But we have to be realistic that being down 19-0 in the fourth quarter against

43:52the Giants and winning that game, that doesn't just mean Bo Nix is a top-12 quarterback in the NFL, which is what

43:59I think people are trying to force the issue on.

44:02And it's like, that's... It's such a nuanced conversation, and people refuse to have the nuance about it.

44:07And I'm not saying we should just take out the best moments for every single quarterback.

44:12I'm just saying the rest of the sample size is not like that, and that matters in the conversation.

44:17We can't just talk about two games. Yeah, volatility is important to recognize when it's there.

44:22And I think that the whole point of drafting a quarterback and getting a quarterback is to get a player who has

44:29the ability to win you big games. Does Bo Nix have the ability to win you big games?

44:34Yes. Is Bo Nix also volatile? Yes. Like, these two things both exist, and it's why there's this big counter of everybody

44:40who's on one side and the other of sort of this Bo Nix, what-is-he type of spectrum.

44:46And the truth is, is that you kind of just don't know week in and week out, and that's the dangerous part

44:52of evaluation of sort of, you know, the second and beyond contract with him.

44:56That's when the conversation really gets tough. But is he a player who can win you big games?

45:02Yeah, absolutely. Mahomes is as well, and in this game, I'm going to be looking for how much Vance Joseph is going to blitz him, right?

45:09Like, how aggressive are they going to be with Mahomes coming off of the injury, testing sort of his mobility and what he's like?

45:16Because he's good when he is pressured, right? I mean, Mahomes has some of those magical moments outside of structure we've seen

45:23from any quarterback ever, let alone over the last couple of years.

45:27But when it comes to what he is in his current state, I don't know if he's going to be this super

45:33mobile quarterback right off the bat this season. The way that they're going to mitigate some pressure and blitzes, to me, is lower average depth of target stuff.

45:41I think we're going to have lower average depth of targets for the receivers, for specifically the running backs, because now I

45:48believe they have the running backs to be able to do it.

45:52Kenneth Walker, Emmitt Johnson, Brashard Smith. I think that it's going to be a little bit more of a yards after catch type of a game.

45:59When you look at 2025, Mahomes had 56.8% of his total passing yards were yards after catch stuff.

46:05That was fourth most in the NFL. Over 2,000 of his passing yards were yards after catch numbers.

46:10That was fifth most in the NFL. So they were comfortable putting this into the game plan last year.

46:16I just think they've got better skill position players to do it.

46:19So for the longest time, Brett, I think that the thought was, oh, thank God he didn't pass it deep.

46:25Because he didn't really care about him dumping it off to the receivers or the running backs.

46:30And even Travis Kelsey, as he's gotten a little bit older, because defenses were like, all right, who cares?

46:36We're just going to rally and tackle. Now they've got playmakers.

46:39Better playmakers after the catch. And I think that is going to be an interesting point of who's going to win this game.

46:46Cyrus Allen, wide receiver one. Are you with me?

46:49You... He's good. What can I say? He's good.

46:51I don't think I can go that far on the battlefield with you, brother.

46:55But I do think that he is going to be a major point of what's going to be a difference to this game.

47:02I do think the Broncos win this game, though.

47:05I think it's going to be too much with the Broncos for the Chiefs in this one.

47:10Although, of course, we know it's going to be close anytime that these teams match up against each other.

47:16When you play a team like that, it's never going to be perfect.

47:20But man, not once did we flinch. So we're going to finish off the show with a little bit of fan Q&A.

47:26You guys sent us literally hundreds of questions before we did our first episode here.

47:31And so we just have so many left over that we're just going to keep answering questions as the season goes on

47:37because you guys have given us a bunch of great ideas.

47:40The first one, this comes from all-time name, Spencer Fano OT1.

47:44Hell yeah! It's great. I love it. It says, Seahawks' defensive scheme has gotten way too little attention for being one of the best defenses by DVOA ever.

47:52They won the Super Bowl and dominated everyone not named Stafford, but I still haven't seen more than a few breakdowns of

47:58what McDonald does better than everyone else. I think Mike McDonald's superpower is not necessarily scheme.

48:03It's not even game planning. Obviously, he's great at those two things.

48:07I think it's teaching. I think his ability to teach this system to players in an era where there is limited practice time in the off-seasons.

48:15Guys aren't necessarily doing as many preseason snaps as they used to back in the day.

48:19There's also less preseason games now. The ability to still teach and install a very complex defense in a short period of

48:26time and have guys ready to go by week one, that is special.

48:30There's an example of his teaching style that I always look back to.

48:34They have a very modular defense, right? So they can call any pressure in their system out of any look, whether whatever

48:40personnel grouping they're in, like whatever defensive look they're in, they can call a pressure out of anything.

48:45And it's always just triggered with a word and that word being part of the call.

48:50And so how they install their pressures is they do what's called pressure stations in practice, where they just take five trash cans, right?

48:57And they send guys through in stations and they line them up a certain way and they say, here's your word.

49:04And they just teach you every single way to run the same pressure.

49:07Like each station is one type of pressure and it's just a great way to get it to stick.

49:13And it's why they look like they never call the same thing twice, even though they actually are.

49:18It's amazing. It's such a great call out by you because when it comes to that teaching aspect, everyone loves versatility.

49:25You want all these players to be versatile and to be able to do so many different things.

49:30But it's so rare that you get players who can be versatile, but also play fast.

49:35Everybody on the field almost operates the game as if they are the star player with everything that they can do and

49:41how confident they play while they do it. That is what is truly rare about the Seahawks defense amidst, of course, the

49:48great talent that they have in a lot of their individual players as well.

49:52Second question comes from Sam Teets, by the way.

49:55Shout out Sam Teets. He works with USA Football, the men's national flag team.

49:59So we always love to shout out our flag team here on NFL Pro.

50:03Sam asks, which wide receivers over the age of 30 do you think have the most left in the tank to help teams make postseason runs?

50:11So obviously you got future Hall of Famers, Devontae, Mike Evans, Courtland Sutton, Terry McLaurin, Stefan Diggs is back in the mix again.

50:18Out of all of these receivers north of 30, who has the most gas?

50:22I think McLaurin's got the most left in the tank.

50:25I don't think Washington's a postseason team. So to answer the first part of the question, I think McLaurin's got a lot left in the tank.

50:32I think he's going to be great this year as long as he is fully healthy.

50:37I think we're going to see that quite a bit from him this season.

50:41But in terms of like who's got the most left in the tank for postseason runs, I genuinely think that's Devontae Adams again.

50:48Like I think that Devontae, even if he is just the touchdown merchant that he was last season, like if you can

50:55do that, dude, if you could be a player that you go, hey, in the red zone, find me separation and Matthew

51:01Stafford's going to find you, we're going to convert for six.

51:05Unbelievably valuable. Like insanely valuable. So he's not going to rack up the stats that he was when he was with prime

51:11Aaron Rodgers when it was him and Aaron Rodgers one of the best quarterback wide receiver duos in the NFL.

51:17But to me, that's probably the answer to that question.

51:20I think Matt Evans is going to be a strong presence as well, but they're going to need I think plenty around Mike.

51:27Sutton's obviously huge because he's had a lot of targets for this Denver Broncos offense, but I think that Jalen Waddell is really going to sort of help.

51:35I was going to say eat into that, but the word I'll use is compliment that a little bit more.

51:41All of that to say, I think the answer is Devontae Adams.

51:45Yes. You mentioned that McLaurin, you know, we at the moment don't think the commanders are going to go on a run here.

51:52I don't even think commanders fans think they're going to go on a run here.

51:56I think there's a world where Terry becomes a trade ship midseason to a team that needs a receiver and is going on a run.

52:03Can I interest you in future Houston Texans with legendary McLaurin?

52:07I wish it was Jaden Higgins. I do too.

52:09I just, I wish it was Jaden Higgins, but yeah, I mean, yeah, of course you can interest me in that if

52:16the Texans are rolling by the time we get to the deadline.

52:20Because at that point, then he really would be the receiver that has the most gas in the tank that can lead

52:26a team to a championship because my God, have you seen how the Texans receiver depth chart has fallen apart in the last two weeks?

52:34It's ridiculous. It's not great. It's not great. The probability is between 40% and 60% for the two teams that are facing off.

52:40So for those 10 games, what we're going to do is pick the winner, but we're also going to rank them in

52:47terms of how confident we are in the picks and who's going to be winning the game.

52:52So your number one confidence game, you will get 10 points, right?

52:56Because there's 10 games this week. Number two, you'll get nine and so on and so forth.

53:01So we'll go through all 10 of those games.

53:03We'll pick the winner, but we'll also tell you where they are in our confidence list because we're going to keep score every single week and see.

53:11I don't know what the punishment is going to be at the end of the year.

53:16I feel like the fans need to be the ones to come up with what the winner wins or maybe...

53:22Just don't make me do a felony. That's all I ask.

53:25Misdemeanor, I'm okay. We have one rule. We have one rule here.

53:29So let's dig into it because we've got a lot of things to talk about.

53:33First game, we already talked about a little bit on this show, Chicago and Carolina.

53:38Who are you picking in this game and then where is it in the confidence meter for you on that 10 list?

53:44So I'm picking Chicago in this one. For a lot of the reasons we talked about, right?

53:49Not that I see the Panthers as like a fraudulent team.

53:53It's just they kind of won. They won in some funky ways last year and obviously the Bears won in some funky ways as well.

54:00But I felt like the method that the Bears win is a little bit more translatable going into this year compared to the Panthers.

54:07I fully accept I could be wrong about this.

54:10Maybe Phillips and Devin Lloyd are like the keys to making this thing work.

54:14We'll see. I just feel more confident at the moment in Chicago which is why I put this at the 7 spot in my competition.

54:21So if I get this one correct, I get 7 points.

54:25Okay, so you're taking the Bears. I'm also taking the Bears.

54:28I also put this pretty high. This is in the 9 spot for me.

54:32I'm getting 9 points if I get this one right which is, yeah, almost at the top.

54:37This is my second most highest confident game that I have here and the reason why is because I just don't think Carolina can keep up.

54:45I don't think it's going to be perfect for either team.

54:48Week 1 rarely is but I just don't think Carolina's got the horses to win the race when it comes to putting

54:55up the points against this Chicago Bears offense. Next game, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Cincinnati Bengals.

55:00Where are we here with Baker Mayfield traveling to Cincinnati to take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals?

55:05What do you think? So I actually disagreed with the win probability model here because the win probability model had I think

55:12it was like 58% Bengals or something like that.

55:14Little man versus machine. I think the Bucs are too good in the line of scrimmage to lose this game.

55:20You know, Emeka's practicing like I think he's going to play.

55:24He's got that toe issue which I'm assuming it's turf toe if you injure a toe it's like 90%.

55:29He can have mine. It's fine. To take my big toe.

55:33But I just I look at what the Bucs are on the line of scrimmage and I compare that to even an

55:39improved you know Bengals roster on the defensive line and I still I just I think they're going to struggle to block

55:46Tampa and I really love Baker as a quarterback.

55:48I think if Emeka plays even 80% I think they're going to be fine.

55:52I think Tampa wins that game. So where is this on the list for you though?

55:57Two. I'm not super confident but I do think they win.

56:00Well this is the game that we're flipped here.

56:03I'm taking the Bengals over the Bucs obviously hope you're right but I'm going to take the Bengals they're in the three

56:10spot for me so I get three points if I get this one right with the Bengals.

56:15I have faith in their offensive lines but more importantly than that I'm really worried about the Buccaneers outside cornerbacks going up

56:21against even though they've been on the injury report Jamar Chase and T.

56:25Higgins like that's that's something that gives me a lot of reservations so this could definitely be a shootout type of a

56:32game but with it being Cincinnati I'll take the Bengals in this one.

56:36Buffalo and Houston talked about this on the top of the show but who you taking in this one and where is it in the confidence meter?

56:44How many points you earning? I'm taking the Texans and it's at one because it's a straight toss up to me.

56:50Okay. It's at one meaning you're at bottom of the list you're only at one point.

56:55Bottom of the list as in I am I am not putting a lot of confidence in the Texans to win a

57:01big game because I am a traumatized Texans fan of 20 years but I do think that on paper they should win

57:08this game but yeah that's absolute bottom of the rankings for me.

57:11I'll get four points if the Texans win this one I got them in the four point spot here but I'm also

57:18taking the Houston Texans I talked about how I'm excited about Jim Leonard their defensive coordinator I think it's going to be

57:24a little bit of a slow burn for them so outside of a superhuman performance from Josh Allen against what could be

57:31the best defense in the NFL I'm also going to take the Texans here.

57:35Baltimore and the Colts so the Ravens versus the Colts here what do we think about this game?

57:40We didn't touch on this one at all during the show yet so what do you think?

57:45I was actually pretty confident in this one I think the Ravens are going to win it I put that at eight

57:52I think Jesse Minter is an incredible defensive coach remember last year the Ravens allowed just as many points in the first

57:58five weeks of the season as they did the entire rest of the year all they had to do was just have

58:05like a respectable defense in the first month they probably would have made the playoffs I think Lamar is awesome I am

58:12a big believer in Declan Doyle I still think King Henry's got it they improved the guard spots it's just a really

58:18really good team I'm going to put that at eight yeah I have I have more confidence in the Ravens than I

58:25do the Colts I have them in the sixth spot but I also have the Ravens winning this game I'm with you

58:31I think the offense is certainly going to be better I think the Minter's going to have that defense rolling a lot

58:38better than what it was last season and I'm a fan of the changes that they have made this offseason so you

58:44know for the Colts there are things to get excited about on that team I kind of got to see it on

58:51that defensive line like I need that defensive line to be constant in pressures but also finishers that's what we really need

58:57here and I think it'll be a good test against some new Ravens offensive linemen so we're both taking the Ravens you

59:04got that one a little bit higher on the confidence meter than I do the Atlanta Falcons and the Pittsburgh Steelers what do we think about this one?

59:12I'm going to go Steelers it's not the most confident I put them in the fourth spot I just want to see

59:19what the Falcons quarterback situation looks like right I just don't know and I really can't be confident in something that I

59:25don't know and even though I'm not like a huge believer in the Steelers this year I do think they're at least

59:32going to be a solid team I'm not even sure the Falcons are a solid team so give me the Steelers now

59:38I'm with you I got the Steelers winning this game as well I got them in the 7 spot actually and it's

59:45just simply because I got a lot of faith in Mike McCarthy as a coach to just raise the floor of this

59:51team I think the floor for the Steelers they might win this game without even scoring 20 points but I just have

59:58more faith that they're going to be able to operate things on both sides of the ball a little bit better than

60:05the Falcons are I think the Falcons have some explosive players that can make things happen for them they've just really got

60:11to hit on those explosive plays to win this game given the uncertainty that they've got at the quarterback position so we're

60:18both taking the Steelers you got it in the 4 spot I got it in the 7 spot if they end up

60:24winning Jets Titans were they in your race yeah this one kind of confused me too the win probability model was really

60:31hot on the Titans for this one I still would go Jets here I'm with you I agree and I don't know

60:37if it's just because like hey Jeff Simmons exists Titans are going to win like it's fair absolutely fair point it's fair

60:44you look at all the talent the Jets have added unfortunately not the most important position but all the talent the Jets

60:50have added in the last two off seasons the offensive line has been rebuilt like Brees is good to go they got

60:57receivers you know defensive talent up and down but it's not like the worst in the league they brought in a bunch

61:03of veterans like DeMario Davis still got it somehow at age a billion so I really do think the Jets like if

61:10how about this if you put Cam Ward on the Jets would this even be a discussion no but I yeah and

61:17dude I have the Jets winning this game in the 8th spot I see you've got it in the 6th spot I

61:23have it even higher than you so I think that NGS having the Titans at a 56% win percentage here kind of

61:30goes to the fact that this game's in Tennessee so I think they're just thinking hey these are two teams that may

61:36be not the best in the NFL but we'll take the team that's got and I still have my reservations about Cam

61:43Ward being too loose with the football and until I see him take care of the football a little bit better I'm

61:49always going to worry about that I think the Jets are going to be better give me the Jets and give them

61:56to me in the 8th spot there Geno Smith famously safe with the football in 2025 hey you got a point but

62:02I do think that the Jets have some ways to make a difference with you know some of the past catchers that

62:09they've gotten I think a little bit more stability on the offensive line specifically to be able to give me a little

62:15bit more faith that they're going to win this game Miami Dolphins and the Las Vegas Raiders what do we think about

62:22this one where is it in the confidence rating I went Vegas I would be more confident in it weirdly if Fernando

62:28Mendoza was starting you would be I think I would I like what I saw in the preseason like yeah there's bumps

62:35in the road but like I really I think they got something here I put it oh I think they do too

62:42I just yeah I don't know I don't know about week one I just I really like his just added flavor of

62:48mobility to get himself out of trouble when he needs to and you know as a passer like they were like under

62:55center like half the time in the preseason which he's never done that before and I thought he looked he acquitted himself

63:01well like they were doing actual drop back passes no play action from under center like oh my god kids got it

63:08they're fine so I put it at five I think I would have put it higher if Mendoza was starting but for

63:14now I put it at five I'm taking the Dolphins because to me it's one of those games where everybody's potentially predicting

63:21the Dolphins to get the number one overall pick in the draft and this is one of those games where we said

63:27week one is a liar we said at the top of the show week one is a liar okay I think I

63:34think the Miami Dolphins are winning this game and you know how much I think it I have them at the one

63:40point for the conference meter so they are all the way at the bottom but I am taking Miami here to try

63:47to steal a point from you by picking the Dolphins to win this game the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings

63:54we spent a lot of time on this game earlier in the show but what do you think about this who do

64:00you think wins and where is it on the list I'm very confident in this one I think the Vikings win I

64:07put it at nine like I really am confident the Vikings win this game say not close like more than a position

64:13throughout the not close phrase because again the Packers defense without Micah is not the same that's tough I do I know

64:20that Kevin O'Connell has a million different quarters beaters in his back pocket I mean they won nine games last year with

64:26JJ McCarthy and Max Prosper come on I don't I don't think it's close all due respect with all due respect but

64:33like even Packers fans are like yeah man I don't know I also look I also think the Vikings win this game

64:39I have in the five spot sort of right in the middle of my list so I got him at number five

64:46you got the Vikings winning maybe nine points there for that one Dallas and and New York the Cowboys versus the Giants

64:52the only game I'm more confident in is the Cowboys over the Giants in this yeah I'm the same this is this

64:59is my 10 spot game we have the same we have the same 10 spot game here and that is with the

65:05Cowboys winning over the Giants it's really the start of the NFL season every year when we get our first primetime Giants

65:12Cowboys game when the Cowboys win by like a gazillion points it's been a few years since we've had it but like

65:19that's football to me early season September Cowboys Giants prime time just drubbing I could also see it happening I could also

65:25see it happening here too many changes for New York Denver and Kansas City we we just previewed this one before we

65:32got into the game picks where's this one on the list this one was closer for me I put it number three

65:38on the list Chiefs over Broncos I was actually kind of surprised by the model on this one because it did have

65:45the Chiefs winning this game which when I went into it I was like oh yeah it's obviously gonna you know it's

65:51gonna give the the Broncos a higher percentage it actually gave the Chiefs a higher percentage so I found myself shocked that

65:58I was agreeing with the model but I really do for a lot of the reasons we talked about you know if

66:04you're looking at the the Broncos defense they don't have Franklin Myers anymore Cooper's on the exempt list you know is their

66:11pass rush still gonna be as good this year as it was last year because of that I think Mahomes is fine

66:17like I really do think he's healthy I there's a lot of reasons people are gonna clip that it's gonna be you

66:24calling Mahomes just fine I hope you realize that you've been around the internet long enough you played yourself my friend there's

66:30like four things in the segment that are gonna get clipped shoved in my face brother the whole segment's gonna get clipped

66:37you know it it's a clippable segment I give Giants fans full permission by the way to just absolutely dunk on me

66:44if they win this game you guys have earned it I also have the Chiefs winning I have that at the two

66:50spot though you've got it at three spots so we have we both have it much lower on our confidence list because

66:57I think that we both just believe this is gonna be a close game four games that the NGS model win probability

67:03model thinks that maybe it's not gonna be so close Washington at Philadelphia Philadelphia with a 65% win probability chance there the

67:10New Orleans Saints and the Detroit Lions this one's in Detroit but 76% for Detroit I was pretty shocked about that Cleveland

67:16at Jacksonville 76% for Jacksonville and then Arizona versus LA the Chargers Cardinals versus Chargers 80% win percentage there from the model

67:23on the side of the Chargers that's the one that scares me I mean besides the Saints when the Saints won like

67:29okay yeah I still would pick the Lions there 76% I was like all right let's slow down a little bit but

67:3680% 80s a lot that's a lot 80s a lot like I get it the quarterback disparity Mike McDaniel coming over yeah

67:42I get it but if you're just looking at the Cardinals roster this is actually something I talked with EJ about this

67:49week if you take Jordan Love and you put him on the Cardinals roster are they a wildcard team I would say

67:56yes because you got an improved offensive line even after the Basantus injury improved offensive line Trey McBride good receivers Jeremiah Love

68:02in the backfield like that's a good offensive roster they're just missing a quarterback and you're telling me that that team with

68:09a good offensive roster in week one which we know is a liar you're giving them 20% stunned me I think that

68:15their percentage should be a little bit higher I don't know if it should be that much higher what about Jacksonville and

68:22Cleveland here I think that there's just way too many question marks with what the Cleveland Browns offense could be although I

68:28will say I'm a Todd Munkin guy I like Todd Munkin I like how he approaches the game I like what he

68:35did with the Ravens offense not always but most of the time and I think that they've got some added skill position

68:41players with Denzel Boston and Casey Concepcion obviously Quinshot Junkins as well that can be a difference maker outside of just the

68:48questions at quarterback so I I feel as though I like Cleveland a little bit better but certainly than most people but

68:54I certainly am not going to be picking them over the Jacksonville Jaguars who could be an AFC championship and maybe even

69:01be a Super Bowl team yeah I thought the 76% for the Jags was fair here just because of gestures and everything

69:07right now but the fact that Detroit and Jacksonville were both at 76% that's what stunned me just because the quality opponent

69:14is so not the same to me yeah and then Philly at 65% if anything was going to be north of 70

69:21I actually thought Philly would be north of 70 because of the offensive line issues with the commanders I'm not entirely sure

69:27I believe even a lot of their defensive signings even though they were expensive like I get it we're breaking in a

69:34new offense in Philly like I fully understand but that to me felt more lopsided than Detroit Saints yeah I think that

69:40it being in a division and just not knowing the Jaden Daniels factor right just how unbelievable he was his rookie season

69:47and how at any point in time he could put on the Superman cape and maybe take over I think that that

69:53probably is baked into this a little bit but he has a lot of question marks for the commanders on both sides

70:00of the trenches but specifically the offensive trenches as well and we know that Philly can really get after the quarterback so

70:06I wouldn't be taking any of these underdogs for any of these high win probability teams but New Orleans we talked about

70:13that one New Orleans is the one to keep an eye on because there's potential that that offense could be pretty dang

70:19potent but it's hard to think that they're going to outscore the Detroit Lions given how great they have been over the

70:26last couple of seasons thanks for listening to the week one preview but because we're emphasizing it's week one you know that

70:33we're going to be with you guys all season long every week of the NFL season be sure to follow NFL pro

70:39on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcast we'll be back with you next week to analyze the game like

70:46a pro this episode sponsored by home base home base is built for small businesses trying to do it all the neighborhood

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71:12dot com home base built for small businesses that do it all the entire draft room groans because you just took the

71:18guy they wanted there's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league I'm JJ Zachary Eason host of the award-winning late

71:25round podcast before your draft our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who

71:31to cross off listen to the late round fantasy football podcast on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your

71:38podcasts the new NFL season is here and you should be listening to NFL daily as we march along to Super Bowl

71:4461 it is in the name NFL daily you'll have fresh content in your feed every day all season long that game-winning

71:51drive maybe it's Herbert maybe it's Gino maybe it's my home's we'll have the highlights if Fernando Mendoza or any of those

71:58rookies are balling out we'll break down the tape join me Greg Rosenthal and an all-star cast of co-hosts as we preview

72:04and recap every game listen to NFL daily on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast hey I'm

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