Davis Mattek - Grinding the Variance: Week 1 Gillcast (NFL DFS Recap)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
46 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 14, 2026
Published
Mon, September 14, 2026
22
Player insights
17
Players mentioned
Topics
Bijan RobinsonJa'Marr ChaseJustin HerbertKyler MurrayMichael MayerBreece HallCaleb WilliamsColston LovelandDeshaun WatsonGarrett WilsonJahmyr GibbsJared GoffJustin JeffersonMarShawn Lloyd
Player analysis
Player insights
Bijan Robinson
PositiveUsage11:07
Despite the source's initial skepticism, Robinson saw massive usage with 21 rushes and 10 targets, proving his value as a high-floor play regardless of the quarterback situation.
Insight pagePositiveProjection24:20
The source highlights Bijan Robinson as a high-upside play, noting that he had the second-highest expected production and would have been a better tournament play than the running backs actually utilized.
Insight pageBreece Hall
PositiveUsage33:25
Breece Hall is highlighted as having significant upside due to his involvement in the passing game, though he lost some fantasy points to the field in Week 1 due to other running backs being projected higher.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
PositiveProjection25:28
Caleb Williams is praised for an insane performance, churning out 37 points in a game where the Bears scored 59 points.
Insight pageColston Loveland
NegativeUsage27:45
Despite being on the field for nearly every route, Colson Loveland finished with only two targets and zero receptions in a high-scoring Bears game.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeMatchup15:45
The source describes Watson's play as 'egregious' and suggests that opposing defenses should be targeted every week until he is benched.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
NegativeValue25:51
The source was surprised by Garrett Wilson's 17% ownership, as they expected him to be much lower-owned (5-6%) given the general lack of interest in the Jets offense.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
NegativeBust22:16
Chase was a major disappointment in Week 1, scoring only 3.2 points on two receptions for 12 yards despite high ownership.
Insight pageNegativeUsage36:05
Ja'Marr Chase had a disappointing Week 1 with only four targets on 35 attempts, appearing to struggle to get open despite the Bengals' high-scoring potential.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveUsage8:32
Gibbs was considered a 'lock' for cash games by the source, though they noted that for his ceiling to be fully realized, he needed more receiving work or multiple touchdowns.
Insight pageJared Goff
NegativeProjection3:32
The source notes that Goff's projections were razor-close to Herbert and Murray, but he was ultimately chosen as a correlated play alongside Gibbs and St. Brown. The source admits Goff lineups were 'insanely lucky' to reach overtime.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
NegativeRole3:27
After watching the Chargers' performance, the source is no longer interested in playing Herbert or other Chargers players for the rest of the season, describing the team as an 'egregious mess' and 'hot ass'.
Insight pageNegativeProjection41:45
The source expresses frustration with the Chargers' offense and Justin Herbert, noting that despite his talent, he has yet to win a playoff game.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveProjection29:26
Justin Jefferson is considered one of the best wide receivers in the NFL; the source argues he was under-owned in Week 1 and expects him to be as highly owned as St. Brown and Chase moving forward.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveValue5:00
Despite concerns about his floor and processing, the source argues Murray was a strong play at $5,500 on DraftKings because his rushing upside makes him viable regardless of passing efficiency.
Insight pageNegativeInjury22:57
The source notes that Kyler Murray got hurt during the game, which negatively impacted the performance of lineups that included him.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
NegativeUsage26:21
Marshawn Lloyd is described as not being 'the guy' in the Packers backfield; he did not start the game, lacked receiving usage, and was hindered by a poor offensive line.
Insight pageMichael Mayer
PositiveUsage21:52
Mayer was a high-ownership play (78%) who saw increased target share when Brock Bowers was off the field.
Insight pagePositiveUsage43:05
Michael Mayer is highlighted as a player to target, having run the second-most routes on the Raiders (23 routes) in Week 1.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
NegativeDepth Chart44:35
The source suggests that Kendrick Bourne's performance creates an 'inconvenient truth' for Michael Wilson's fantasy outlook.
Insight pageTre Tucker
PositiveUsage17:10
The source regrets playing Tucker, noting he is 'just a guy' who lacks the consistent target volume required to be a reliable DFS option.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveProjection43:54
Trey McBride is considered a strong play, with the source regretting not betting his over on receiving yards after he hit the mark early in the game.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:51Guys, boys, we are back. The Los Angeles Chargers couldn't do shit against the Arizona Cardinals.
0:56We, well, we didn't lose it all. We could have done better.
1:00We could have done worse. I actually thought cash games, I don't know how many times this year cash games are going to be legitimately interesting.
1:09There were a bunch of different decisions to make at basically, like I thought there were, what, probably like five playable running backs, maybe six.
1:18I thought there were three playable quarterbacks. One of them suffered maybe a season ending injury on the very first possession.
1:25There were like a couple different deep, like high price defenses.
1:29That was the Nate thing. And when, when we turn the cards over and we show you guys what happened to Nate
1:36for, for once, I actually think Nate, the chat's going to be with you.
1:41I think they're going to feel for you. Cause I, I gotta say, Nate, you played good and you ran bad.
1:49I'll hand it to you for the first time ever.
1:52You played good and you ran bad. Yeah, it was, it was, it was a frustrating outcome.
1:58I don't want to spoil it, but yeah, it was frustrating.
2:02So I guess let's just go ahead and start by talking about the quarterback position.
2:07I think there were basically three playable quarterbacks. I think there was Justin Herbert.
2:12I think there was Jared Goff. And I think there was Kyler Murray, Kyler, obviously in the lineup combinations when you needed the salary.
2:20I think Herbert was like, I would say he was the want play and he was the one that was in blended optimal.
2:28So if you blended run the Sims, ETR, Cardi and Saber, you would have gotten Herbert where I landed ultimately was with Jared Goff.
2:36Cause I was like, if I'm playing Gibbs and I'm playing St.
2:40Brown, don't, don't I just want golf and the projections?
2:43I mean, the projections are razor, razor close. Like run the Sims has Kyler for 19.
2:49We were actually more bearish on golf at 16.3 and then Herbert for 19.7.
2:54So that was mostly a correlated play to me.
2:57Nathaniel, how were you thinking about the quarterback position?
3:00I mean, I definitely looked at golf and Herbert, but I thought that Murray at his price with his running upside, I, I don't know.
3:09I thought Murray was the play here. I just, from a price standpoint, I think I get it from a golf standpoint,
3:16but golf has to have such insane efficiency to get there.
3:20And in this spot he projected to, but it's like, if Gibbs gets two rushing TDs, you're dead.
3:26You, I was going to say what you, what you literally need is you need one of God Gibbs's touchdowns to come
3:34via reception or you get what you got today, which is the lions offense is pretty good.
3:39They got, I mean, they had to have had like 450 yards overall on offense.
3:45Actually golf didn't even threaten the bonus. So maybe, maybe not.
3:48I mean, he got left. Frankly, golf lineups got very lucky to get overtime.
3:53Like actually insanely lucky to get overtime. Cause the saints look like one of the worst teams, um, in the NFL.
4:00I mean, frankly, Sammy, I wanted to play Herbert.
4:03Her Herbert was my want play. My lineup ran out of salary.
4:08I would have preferred to have played Herbert. Now, after watching the Los Angeles chargers ply their trade on the football field,
4:15I think I'm cured of wanting to play chargers for the rest of the year.
4:20I actually think I'm good. I think maybe I'll play lad every once in a while, but I think mostly I'm good on the chargers.
4:29Well, first off lad died. Secondly, he did die.
4:32Yes, that's true. Yeah. I mean, buddy, the chargers are an egregious mess.
4:36It's like, Oh, we got Mike McDaniel. Like everything's going to be different.
4:41It's going to be good. Dude. They are ass.
4:44They're hot ass. And the fact that we played O'Marion Hampton who at the beginning of the game, I was just like, dude, he scored that touchdown.
4:53I was like, dude, he's getting 35. Yeah. Yeah, dude.
4:57He's so much. He's so big and just like runs full.
5:00So he looks like Derek Henry out there. And you're just like, Holy shit.
5:05Like I'm going to smash, but. 10 point home favorites.
5:09They lost by more than a touchdown. Yeah. And, and, and we were talking about this before we started up here.
5:16It's not like something bad happened. There was a fumble that went the wrong way or pick dude.
5:22They just got their asses. What their lily ass is kicked up and down the field.
5:28And yeah, we're, we're stupid for putting any American dollars like on their victory today.
5:33It's a tough scene survivor. So it's very tough scene.
5:36So run. I will say this. No, hold on, hold on.
5:40I never considered Kyler Murray. Never. I did. I did.
5:43No, I didn't. And you know, it seems like you can't really know what was going to happen because it's super revisionist.
5:51Right. Cause he just got hurt right away. But Kyler, I know he projects.
5:56Well, I know he's got rushing upside. Like we know this about Kyler Murray, but like, dude, he, he might just be
6:03too small and little to be able to hack it.
6:07And once I'm overruling, I'm over, I'm overruling. And once you see, it's Justin Jefferson.
6:12There's so many reasons why he was going to get up.
6:16He was going to put points up here. I get it, dude.
6:20I get it. But like at the end of the day, you know, this is cash games.
6:26We're going for four. And Kyler Murray has like a pretty bad floor.
6:30And, you know, it's one of those things where Kyler Murray, you know, he's like five foot 10.
6:36He got drafted number one overall because he's like this God tier athlete.
6:41But what happens to these guys who aren't really like that good at football and processing and this and that, but they're just super athletic.
6:49Like what happens when they're 28 years old or 29 or whatever he is and start mounting injuries and they lose that
6:57half step that makes them so different. I think bad things.
7:01And Kyler Murray hasn't been very good. The big thing.
7:04I'm going to hard disagree with this take. Like I it's not just because I played Kyler that I disagree with this,
7:12but I just think at $5,500 on draft kings dot com at quarterback for a guy who's going to have rushing work.
7:19Like you don't need much passing efficiency. So you he doesn't need to be a good quarterback.
7:25He doesn't need to be a real NFL quarterback for you to get points on draft games.
7:31And the way the rest of the lineup construction went going down to him made total sense.
7:37Tyler Shuck. I'll play anybody at $5,500. I'll play Drew Locke.
7:41We should have played Tyler Shuck. We should have played Tyler Shuck.
7:45I will play Drew Locke at $5,500 next week and it will be the right lineup construction.
7:50On draft kings for floor at a quarterback, I'm not I'm not trying to evaluate their talent or their ability.
7:57I don't want Kyler Murray as my franchise quarterback, but on draft kings like this is how you play.
8:04And I'm I think Kyler was to play at $5,500.
8:07Yeah, I'm I I ultimately. Didn't play Kyler because I just felt that with Gibbs and St.
8:13Brown in the lineup like once I decided I was doing the St.
8:18Brown lineup and not doing the three running back lineup, which was viable by the way.
8:23If you did the two punt wide receiver three expensive running back lineup.
8:28I don't think you played bad at all. I think that was a totally reasonable decision to play B.
8:34John or Derek Henry or Jonathan Taylor or whoever over over St.
8:38Brown. I think I think that's and frankly, we haven't even got to let's get the real we know we'll get to the real issue.
8:47We will get the real issue in in all of our lives, but a running back.
8:52Gibbs was a lock. Then I think you had to choose one of B.
8:57John HN Jonathan Taylor, Amari and Hampton, Ashton Gente.
9:00Those were the playable running backs to me. It sounds like I didn't check, but I believe the ETR train included.
9:07I think Levitan did Jonathan Taylor. So shout out to a good, good play.
9:12I have no issue with it. Ultimately, I did Jameer Gibbs with Amari and Hampton.
9:17And then I did the double. I did the double tight end lineup.
9:22But I mean, Sammy, we were talking up and down about swapping.
9:26I mean, if we would have just clean swapped Hampton to Gente, we would have been home free.
9:32And I feel really fucking stupid because Gente, I bet his overs.
9:36I bet him. I bet his receiving overs. I bet his touchdowns.
9:40I was like, this is the Gente spot. This is like the only game.
9:45The Raiders are going to be favorite in all year.
9:49I took Raiders. We took Raiders three times in the $100 survivor on Splash.
9:53I was all in. And I said, you know what?
9:57Can't do Gente, who I know is better than Amari and Hampton.
10:01I don't even think Amari and Hampton's good. I called Ashton Gente the running back of our generation on a show on Friday.
10:09And then you know what I did in cash games?
10:12I said, no, no, I got to play Amari and Hampton.
10:16The 10 point home favorites got to play. Hampton first off is like, whatever, he's fine.
10:22But fucking Gente in this spot. Gente as a $6,600 player.
10:25This is like getting Bijan Robinson, but for $1,000 less.
10:29You'll never get one of the strikes again. It's so bad.
10:33It's so bad. I played bad. I played bad.
10:36You did. I mean, buddy, buddy, I played Gente in all my tournament lineups.
10:40It was just like so obvious. Like, dude, so obvious.
10:44Of course. Of course. And like in cash, it's like, no, no.
10:48Oh, Marion Hampton. Oh, Marion Hampton. Three man committee and these bungling idiot coaches.
10:53Like, Jesus Christ. This is so bad, bro. So bad.
10:56Yeah. And, you know, Nate, I got it. I got to give you your flowers.
11:01I really, I really do. You win. You win the three man by what?
11:061.2. 1.18 points. But you played, you played B.
11:09John Robinson. And I would not have. Just a straight, a straight all timer from Davis this morning.
11:15If you didn't see what I tweeted, this is what Davis tweeted or sent in our group chat.
11:22Nate was like, hey, I'm going B. John and the Raiders over Hampton and the Steelers.
11:27And Davis says, and I quote, B. John is so fucking bad.
11:31LOL. Come on, Nate. It was more. First off, I would say any, I would say anyone that Nate was going to play as bad in the morning.
11:41Like, it doesn't matter. Where I was coming from was I was just like, dude, I have to jam the Steelers defense is where I was coming at.
11:51So it's just like, I thought I played the Steelers defense.
11:54Steelers and Jets. I played in 100% of my lineups.
11:58I thought the Steelers are the, the Falcons are never winning this game.
12:02They're not going to be able to move the ball.
12:06I mean, and it's so funny because Drake London literally had like four points and Kyle Pitts had zero because it all went to B.
12:14John because B. John had eight receptions for 90 yards.
12:18This is what, this is what Nate says to Davis in reply.
12:22Davis says, B. John is so fucking bad. Come on, Nate.
12:26And Nate says, yeah, getting eight B. John dump offs from Cooper rush.
12:30Really going to be bad. Like literally says eight.
12:33Like Nate, just windmill dunking on Davis week one of the 2026 NFL season.
12:38The people love to see it. I just don't understand.
12:41I mean, literally B. John literally was like second highest in the league and expected production last year.
12:48And he was more efficient than the workload that he got.
12:51And week one, we're expecting him to get more.
12:54He's getting all of the workload in this backfield.
12:57And that is not even. 21 rushes and 10 targets.
13:01It's not even a question. And you're like, I'm going to fade that so I can play Omari and Hampton.
13:08It wasn't. It wasn't. It wasn't. I don't even know if he's going to get any passing work.
13:14It might be all Keaton Mitchell out there. We have no idea what Hampton's workload is going to look like.
13:21And it's not even like you're getting a big discount.
13:24You're saving like a thousand dollars to go to Hampton.
13:28And it's the court. Like the B. John thing was so obvious.
13:32And for you to fade him simply because of Cooper rush, he hasn't had a quarterback ever.
13:38I don't care if it's Cooper rush. It's B.
13:41John freaking Robinson. It's seven. I definitely care. Jam in the expected production.
13:45You're sitting here making lineup decisions about a defense?
13:48No, no. I definitely care. We're in the taro world, Davis.
13:52Because we paid up for defense. You're building your lineups around a defense?
13:57We paid up for defense like 2025 Nate Nolan.
14:00We lived in Dayton. Nationwide is so much more than a great insurance company.
14:04They're one of America's largest financial services companies. Just like I'm so much more than quarterback Peyton Manning.
14:11I'm also Peyton Manning. Insurance and financial services together, it's a masterpiece.
14:15Peyton Manning does it again. For your insurance and financial needs, Nationwide is on your side.
14:20Nationwide Investment Services Corporation, Ember FINRA, Columbus, Ohio. Every game day you show up for your team, now it's your time.
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14:36Why wait? I just, I guess where I was is I thought there was, there were two defenses I think that were
14:44so obvious who were going to get like a minimum of 10, which were the Jags and the Steelers.
14:50So I really, like a lot of the times when you're playing salary cap DFS on DraftKings and cash games, like by
14:58the time we get to week five and week six, the salary is going to be so tight that we are going
15:06to be like, dude, we're taking the Panthers defense and we're hoping we're getting four, you know?
15:11But this was not that style of slate, just the way the options came out.
15:17And so I didn't think ending up with a defense that got five points was not going to be viable, which it wasn't.
15:24And by the way, today, if you did end up with a defense that got like six points, you were fucked.
15:32You were not, you were not winning. You, you, you would have gotten a lot of points.
15:38I don't know. They didn't, they didn't score touchdown though.
15:41I don't think. Dude, no, they didn't. But Deshaun Watson is egregious, dude.
15:45He's like, there's no way he starts for more than like one or two weeks.
15:51So I think moving forward, we really need to take advantage of this.
15:55Like whoever Deshaun Watson is playing, we have to play them.
15:59Doesn't matter the price. Yeah. I don't know what Cleveland's doing, why they started him this year.
16:05I mean, I, I, we can't be confident. They're not going to play him for, for the rest of the season.
16:12I don't know what they're doing. Yeah. But I just, yeah.
16:16I can't believe that you jammed in a defense over Bijan and took a running back who I even said, don't do Hampton, do a chain or JT.
16:25And instead you're like, no, I'll take the guy with the shakiest workload.
16:30Like I, you have best playing. Best ball has ruined your brain.
16:34Best ball has ruined your brain. No, I had JT ranked over Hampton in best ball.
16:39There's no excuse. There's no excuse. It's, it's, it's.
16:42Here's, here's why I didn't do it. Here's why I didn't do it.
16:47And it'll lead into receiver because it was just so obvious in retrospect, but we already had mayor who is the free
16:54piece that if you didn't play him in cash, you're bad.
16:58This is what it was, was that we had two Raiders.
17:02And then, and then we played Trey Tucker and I was like, you know, I don't really think that I want to
17:10start off my, my season here with three Raiders.
17:13That's a Nate move that the three Raiders is the Nate move fucking Jacoby Myers, Ashton Jente, uh, Brock Bowers.
17:20That's the Nate move. And he would have won and he would have won, but it, but it came down to, but, but here's the thing.
17:28It was really easy not to play Trey Tucker because you could have just played Vele in the dome in a massive barn burner shootout.
17:37And instead we're like, actually let's play Trey Tucker in a Raiders versus Dolphins game.
17:42Great fucking idea. Like this is the one, even though Marion Hampton, I thought was, was bad, um, in retrospect, doing it
17:50over Gentry, but, but Trey Tucker, Trey Tucker. Yeah.
17:53Trey Tucker is just never like we all played him, but Trey Tucker is just never like a, you gotta play him guy.
18:01He just never, he had one week, one week last season.
18:05He had that massive, like three touchdowns. He's still having it in his head that he can play ball.
18:11He can't play ball. I mean, fuck. Why did we play him?
18:15Like that was, well, it's also, it's also one of those things where if you have the position we have that the
18:23Raider, well, the position that I had, which is the Raiders are going to win this game.
18:29It makes even less sense to play Trey Tucker who like needs like opportunities.
18:33Like he needs a couple deep shots to get there.
18:37Like, like, well, I mean, maybe he converts his one deep shot, which I don't even believe he got in this game,
18:44but you'd like to have like 40 Kirk cousins dropbacks.
18:48And, and we were not ever getting that in this game.
18:52It probably, even if they're losing this game, we don't get 40 Kirk cousins dropbacks because it probably means HN and Malik Willis are just like running nuclear.
19:01Like they're just like gaining there's averaging like six and a half yards per carry, um, or whatever.
19:07So the team that Nate played was Kyler Murray, Jameer Gibbs, B.
19:11John Robinson, Trey Tucker, Jamar Chase, Amon Ross St.
19:15Brown, Juwan Johnson, Michael Mayer, and the Raiders are three V three was golf.
19:19Amon Ross St. And the Steelers over Kyler Murray, Devin HN and the, the Raiders.
19:25Um, which is, I, I mean, I think, I think good.
19:28I think so the other thing that people did and I'm pulling up the massive 25 or this is the giant.
19:36There was a big train that was a chain and Jaguars D over B.
19:40John and Raiders D. And there was also, I can't find it, but somewhere in here, I believe the is, was it this team?
19:49Uh, this looks like a huge train, but I didn't consider any of these players.
19:54I'm sure there was a trick. There's the Levitan train is in here somewhere.
19:59Maybe this is it. Was it Valley? Cause that was, um, so it was, it was basically, it was using Valley instead
20:06of Tucker and then going from Hampton slash B.
20:09John to Jonathan Taylor. And then I think that lineup also played the Steelers defense instead of the Raiders defense.
20:16So it was, I believe maybe it was Kyler.
20:19Maybe it was golf. I don't remember. And then it was Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, Valey, St.
20:25Brown, Tucker, Juwan Johnson, Mayer, Raiders. I think the biggest, the biggest double, the biggest double up train was, um, I have it here pulled up.
20:34It's, um, golf. Uh, yeah, it's golf, Juwan, I'm on Ra, but it's, it's Gibbs and a Chan, uh, chase, uh, mayor Juwan and yeah.
20:42Valey over, uh, Trey Tucker. So, and then they played Jaguars D.
20:46So I, I, I, I do feel bad about Trey Tucker.
20:50I mean, we should have looked at Valey over Trey Tucker for sure.
20:54Especially because for sure. Should have looked at Valey over Trey, just the, the game environment of.
21:00Of, of the Detroit game versus Vegas. I, yeah.
21:03Yeah. If you're going to take a secondary option, I mean, you know, I think a, the projections like, like Tucker fine,
21:11but also at least me, I have this idea of like, Oh, Trey Tucker is like their only pass catcher and he's
21:19not, you know, like he's just a guy. Jack Besh.
21:22So, so I even, this was, I wish I knew who tweeted this, but someone tweeted like, well, Besh was a tight
21:30end in college who converted wide receiver. He's just going to slot into Bowers position, which is exactly what happened by the way.
21:37What that would, that was literally about, it was just one for one.
21:42Besh just played Bowers, his position. Mayer played his position.
21:45He just had slightly better targets for route run, which he always does when Bowers is not on the field.
21:52Right. But I mean, Mayer was in the massive $25 double up.
21:56Uh, where is it here? Mayer was owned 78%.
21:59Vele was owned 34%. The biggest issue, um, with, with our lineup stuff overall was that Jamar Chase scored 3.2 points, two receptions for 12 yards.
22:08I mean, obviously, uh, anything from Jamar Chase and when I, I, I, um, cause I was having to actually, who's like 60% owned.
22:17He was, but I was, I was actually looking at ownership percentages of stuff today because I was sweating our swap so much.
22:24And something you realize is that early in the season before it's only true in cell virgins remaining, playing these contests.
22:32You do have people who are just straight up playing bad.
22:35Like they do like their Jamar Chase lineup is included in that 68.6%, but they are like not even close.
22:42Like they're like their lineup is so far away from anything you could imagine that you're not even competing against them.
22:50And then you add that up. So obviously Jamar Chase gets, and frankly, given how bad our lineup was, I mean, I
22:57scraped back $639 out of like $880 entered or whatever.
23:01So it could have been good. Could have been a lot worse.
23:05I mean, it could have been, it could have been a lot worse.
23:09And frankly, I would assume the only reason my lineup was able to scrape anything back was because Kyler was so long.
23:17Kyler got hurt. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So yeah. Like didn't do great in the, in the double ups, but like the heads of heads, yeah.
23:25People were playing bad in those and yeah. Um, but yeah, I mean, I think, I think, I think, uh, Nate, Nate,
23:33uh, played good, ran bad with Kyler Murray. Um, if there's anything really to learn, I mean, I probably just will play
23:40the true generational talent as a three point home favorite instead of fucking dicking around with the Marion Hamptons bullshit.
23:47That's just like, sometimes when you lose, you're like, Hey man, this was not avoidable.
23:52And I just like, it is what it is.
23:55And sometimes you just lose. But when it's a situation like this, where I had a lot of opportunities to just play
24:03Gentie, um, I probably should have just, I probably should have just played Gentie.
24:08I mean, you should be giga tilting. Cause you played good.
24:12Yeah, I am. I am. I like legitimately. I was, I mean, obviously the chase thing is, is what it is, but yeah.
24:20Overall, I felt like when I, when I saw everything flop and I was like, wait, no one played Bijan.
24:26Everyone went some of these other running backs instead.
24:29I'll take the second highest expected production for a thousand dollars off.
24:34Yeah. Yeah. I think, I think just revisiting this.
24:37I think the biggest thing is, well, Marion Hampton doesn't have the receiving chops that a lot of these other.
24:44Well, he did, he did last year. He, he, he like legitimately did last year, but to Nate's point, like we didn't
24:51know, was it going to be Keaton? Was it going to be by Dell?
24:56Was it going to be fucking Alec Ingold? Was it going to be like, are they going to just play 12 personnel
25:03and not, which is, I mean, we'll look at the, I'll look at the Tremedia and see what, what actually happened.
25:11But yeah, it was just a very annoying. Yeah.
25:14Yeah. Gentie just like Gentie just fucks dude. He's so good.
25:18Yeah. Um, okay. Get to some tournament stuff now.
25:21So this team I played in the double spy.
25:24So this was 20 K to first, uh, 555 entrance, $200 to enter.
25:28I played a 5% on Caleb Williams who churned out 37 points.
25:32I did play Marion Hampton at 26%. Early contender for worst play of the year.
25:37Uh, Jameer Gibbs, Justin Jefferson at 14%. Early contender for you guys are so fucking stupid.
25:43I can't believe you guys don't play Justin Jefferson.
25:46You're all really dumb. Garrett Wilson, who I did not think was going to get close to 17%.
25:52I was floored by that. I thought that was why I thought he would be.
25:57Five. 6%. Yeah. Nobody, nobody wants Garrett Wilson. Nobody wants jets.
26:01Like that's, that's crazy. I can't believe he's 17%.
26:04Um, I did burden. I did. I did. Who was 13%, uh, which I thought was, I thought in smaller field, he
26:12would be a little bit higher than that. I don't, I don't think that is that bad at all.
26:18Michael Mayer and Marshawn Lloyd with the jets defense.
26:21And I thought, I thought Lloyd at 5%. I was like, if you would have told me Lloyd was single digits in
26:29all these contests, I probably would have played him more than I did.
26:33I did not play a ton of Marshawn Lloyd.
26:37Now, uh, it turns out the green mid Packers stink.
26:40Their offensive line is terrible. And they, he just like never got an attempt to run downhill at, at all.
26:47Marshawn Lloyd is like, not the guy, like he's part of, part of the backfield.
26:52I mean, he led it. Right. But like, he didn't start the game.
26:56He didn't get a target. You know, it's just like, I, he, I don't, I don't believe, I don't believe he did get target.
27:05He was 4,800 and it kept me from playing chalk.
27:08Vele chalk, Trey Tucker, chalk, Juwan Johnson, like all those guys giga and, and Lloyd's projection was very similar to those dudes.
27:16I mean, Marshawn Lloyd for 11.6, Juwan Johnson for 10.8, uh, Vele for 8.4, Tucker for 12.3.
27:22But I think, I think given the, um, oh, he did, he did get a target in the end zone.
27:28Good for him. I mean, frankly, like I, I think that's a, that's actually a play I would make again.
27:35I, I actually don't, I actually don't really feel that bad about that one about at playing him at 5%.
27:42Caleb fucking smashed, dude. He had an insane game.
27:45The bears put up 59 points and Colson Loveland had two targets and zero receptions.
27:50Like the, the best ball bros, the seasonal bro, dude, people are tilting about this.
27:56Yeah. They, uh, they need to take a deep breath, but yes, Nathaniel.
28:00You're on mute brother. Oh, sorry. I had to upload showdown.
28:04Uh, Loveland was out there for like every route.
28:07I mean, Loveland was Loveland. Him and Terrence Ferguson are sitting in the sauna together.
28:12Like, bro, we just ran bad, you know? Yeah.
28:15I'm not worried. This was like a, this was like a, I think like a 82% SIM ROI or whatever in a
28:23500 person field in, uh, on, on run the Sims.
28:26Like I, I really like, I, I just particular, I mean, I didn't, I did not think Garrett Wells going to be 17%.
28:34And I obviously really rather wish that this was gente.
28:37But I mean, Justin Jefferson at 14, 15%, dude.
28:41Like I, I would play, I would play this lineup again.
28:44I really, I really would. Yeah. With a tight end in there instead of Lloyd.
28:49I'm just saying, no, I'm just saying like, if we ran this slate again, I would probably run this lineup back without with literally anyone other than Hampton.
28:59I put, put fucking, put Aaron Jones in there, dude.
29:02I don't care. I'm, I'm done. I'm out on the chargers, bro.
29:07I'm out. Any remaining stock I have on, um, dump it.
29:10Yeah. I I'm I'll sell it. I'll sell it for attach it to, to, to, to see bills and stuff.
29:17I'm sorry, dude. I'm not, I'm not giving 31 points, eight receptions, 92 yards, two touchdowns, and a two point conversion for Justin Jefferson sucked out.
29:26I'm sorry. Yeah. He got the trash touchdown, but it was awesome.
29:30Like full extension, horizontal to the ground hits the pylon after a toe tap touchdown after a two point conversion.
29:37He didn't suck out. He just, he just needed, he, he sucked out in the sense that Kyler Murray got hurt.
29:44He's he's all he needs. He doesn't have this team with Kyler Murray.
29:49I mean, he's the, he's the best or the second best wide receiver in the NFL.
29:54And because people are just so angry about him not being good for fantasy last year, I just knew he would be, I had a strong feeling.
30:04He would be very under owned in this late and guess what?
30:08That will net, this will never happen again. He will, he will now be as owned as St.
30:14Brown and chase every week. Basically. I think I would imagine.
30:18Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, it depends on the quarterback situation.
30:22It depends on the quarterback and the game total and everything.
30:26But yes, like I, I think it will be very rare for us to load up a slate.
30:32Uh, Jamar chase, uh, Jamar chase 27%. St. Brown, 20%.
30:36Justin Jefferson, 8%. I don't, I don't, I don't think so.
30:39I mean, maybe, maybe, you know, I, I don't know.
30:43Um, yeah, there were, there were six rushing touchdowns in that game though.
30:47Monunga had the bonus and two touchdowns. Swift had the bonus and three touchdowns and Caleb ran for two touchdowns.
30:54So, so, or did Monunga only score one? Monunga had one, 10 for a hundred one, a very, a very aesthetically pleasing box score line.
31:03Um, okay. So let's, uh, uh, Nate, give me a lineup to, to run through the, uh, the SIM and then tell me the, the field size.
31:12I have Sammy go first. I'll do next. Okay.
31:15I actually hear Sammy texted to me. So I'll pull, uh, I'll pull.
31:20This is my, uh, power sweep team. I actually, I'm on, I'm, I'm traveling right now.
31:25I'm at a buddy's house. What size, what field size is that?
31:29Like 1500? I don't know. Let's go 1500. Sure.
31:32I think it's like 3000. Okay. We'll do 3000 and we'll do top heavy.
31:37And that is one 50. And you played, uh, well, you were, you were smart on this one, brother.
31:44You played, uh, you played, you played, well, you play Jean T.
31:48I played Jinty in all my tournament lineups. That's why I'm fucking mad at myself, man.
31:53It's just like, I knew, dude, I knew Jinty's a boss.
31:57Like I knew he's great. Like, of course. Now, so you did, you did the, uh, the Joe Burrow double, which, um,
32:04I mean, has got to be O for lifetime on both T and Chase getting there in the same game.
32:11Like literally. Levitan won a quarter mil with it a couple of years ago.
32:16You know, it's just like, it's, it's happened for people.
32:20Just, just not me. Narrate, narrate this lineup for me, please.
32:23Uh, I mean, what is, what is the lineup here?
32:27Like it is Joe Burrow, Ashton, Jinty, Breeze Hall.
32:30Jamar Chase, T Higgins, Emeka Igbuka as the bring back Samuel Laporta, Michael Mayer in the New York Jets defense.
32:37Yeah. So, you know, obviously it's a, it's a double, uh, with Burrow and Chase.
32:42And then I thought Igbuka would be super under owned.
32:45He came in at a little under 6%. And, you know, people are off of him because the, the injury in the
32:53off season, this and that, but I thought he was a great bring back at like that ownership.
32:59So obviously going all in on this game, uh, that didn't work out, but I had a Jinty in this lineup because Jinty is just a fucking beast.
33:09And then I had Breeze Hall as my other running back.
33:12And I just thought Breeze, you know, like he's that guy that, you know, people don't want jets.
33:19People forget. Yeah. People forget dude. Breeze has all the juice and he works in the passing game.
33:25And it was just one of those, like he, he did really well.
33:29Um, I don't think he got the bonus. So he was like a little short there.
33:35And then, uh, I, I played mayor, but it was a double tight end.
33:40So I played mayor, but then I also played Laporta.
33:43And I thought in this lineup that didn't have anything from that saints and lions game, that Laporta was really good leverage
33:51off people really smashing in like Amon Ra and, uh, Jameer Gibbs.
33:55And then I played the jets, Tennessee is ass cam Ward is ass.
33:59And I just thought, you know, the little, the little pairing with Breeze hall.
34:04Um, I thought it was good. The, uh, the Sims, they don't like it pre lock, uh, through the solver.
34:11Anyway, this one had a pretty good, it was like a 50% ROI.
34:15So it was like, we're seeing something obviously quite a bit different here through, through this sim.
34:21I would assume our projections are, were just a lot lower on Laporta.
34:26I would either, or, cause I know, um, talking to, or, or reading like Jack Miller and Mark Dank's tweets that they
34:33just have a pretty high base projection on Sam Laporta.
34:37Um, and I wonder if, I wonder if maybe we were a little lower on burrow or maybe something was different with the, the peons.
34:45Maybe our peons were higher on T, uh, that, that could certainly, that could certainly be it.
34:51I mean, Igbuka also was not showing up as a, as a huge, looking, looking at this.
34:57I think the issue is actually Breeze losing points to the field because so many people were playing running backs projected four or five points better.
35:06You know, you're, you're, I mean, obviously we saw this worked out, but even Hampton, um, projected well.
35:12Yeah. And I, and, and I think, uh, our stuff was also actually a little bit, a little bit lower on mayor.
35:20Nate, what do you have on, uh, on this lineup?
35:23You're on mute. You're on mute. Rose me, Nate.
35:26Come on, come on. Let's have it. I don't hate this lineup.
35:30I mean, I think what I liked about the lineup is that you took like a common construction with two tight end
35:38and you tried to get different with like Laporta and burrow.
35:42I don't think most people who went with Laporta didn't go with golf.
35:46And so I think you probably are more unique there than, than I would think.
35:51But, um, like even though they're chalkier players overall, but yeah, I don't, I don't mind it.
35:57Should just done the burrow to Gusecki and you know, I mean, burrow, obviously the passing game for the bangles didn't come
36:05through today, you know, bro through for one touchdown.
36:08Jamar chase had four targets on 35 attempts. I mean, I don't know what they were doing schematically, but he was like not getting open.
36:16And at least one of those was just like a screen that they were like, get the ball in this guy's hands.
36:24Like he was getting swallowed up. So in a game with like pretty good amount of scoring and back and forth, you
36:31know, don't, don't love to see that from Jamar chase probably like a one week blip, but yeah, he, he douches.
36:39Hey boys. That was so, it was insanely tilting, dude.
36:42I like actually couldn't believe it. And it was just every drive, every drive.
36:47I was just like, this is going to be it.
36:50This is going to be it. This is going to be it.
36:54It was not it. It was no, it, it, it most certainly, it most certainly was, uh, was not it.
37:01Um, in, in frankly, in, in no way, shape or form was, uh, was, was that it at all?
37:08Um, all right. I mean, any, any other interesting notes to, uh, to add on your, on your lineup, Sammy?
37:15Yeah. Pull up my, I had a burrow lineup in a, in a single entry that might be similar.
37:21I'd be interested to see how it seems differently.
37:24Uh, yes. Okay. Tell me, give me your, give me the lineup.
37:28Burrow, Burrow, Gibbs, Bijon, Trey Tucker, Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, and then Mark Andrews, Meyer, Jets D.
37:34Mark Andrews. I think the only Andrews lineup I played was with, uh, was with Lamar.
37:40Uh, it was a similar thing that I liked to, yeah, it was a similar thing I liked about Sammy's lineup of like.
37:48Who were the other two receivers? Uh, Trey and Tee.
37:51I bet, uh, I bet, I bet our projection of Mark Andrews was like.
37:56Nothing. Six points. I'm going to, I'm going to give.
37:59What, uh, what, what, uh, what, what field? 2000.
38:02It was the big spy, the 200 K spy.
38:05So what was, what was Andrews? Sorry. What was Andrews salary?
38:09Was it like high threes? Yeah. 3.9. Yeah. Um, I mean, conceptually, I actually like this lineup less than Sammy's just because Tucker mayor chalk with chase chalk.
38:19So your, your differential pieces here are, I mean, I don't, I don't think, I don't think this lineup is bad.
38:26This is, I mean, it's kind of wasn't that owned, right?
38:30Yeah. I guess I was thinking he was like 20, but maybe he wasn't.
38:35So that's, that's what Nate's doing. He's essentially like, you know, doing what we were talking about, taking a chalk build and
38:42then pivoting, you know, to Mark Andrews, who's not going to be owned at all.
38:47Uh, there's a reason why, but he's not going to be owned, but then taking Bijan who can like break the slate over other running backs.
38:56Um, you know, if you're doing that and, and the Bengal stack goes off here, you can eat chalk in other spots.
39:04Yes. I, I agree. Um, post lock Bijan would sim out, um, insanely good.
39:09Yeah. This, this, and that's what I'm trying to do.
39:12I mean, like ultimately you're not trying to get the guy that everybody thinks you're trying to flip over the guys that
39:20post lock are going to come in under own it's.
39:23Yeah. So yeah. I'd be interested to see what it, and this is pre-locked.
39:28Yeah. Yeah. So this is all, this is all, this is all with the peons and everything from, from pre-locked.
39:35This is, these are not actuals. So yeah, I bet when it flipped over post lock, both Gibbs and Bijan and chase
39:42would sim out better because those guys came in less than I, what did, what did you have Gibbs projected for in that?
39:50Not, not whatever he was. Yeah. 40, 43%. And then what was chase projected at?
39:55Uh, 31.8%. And then what was Trey? 15%, which he was, he ended up being close.
40:01He was there too, too fucking high, man. Yeah.
40:04Too fucking high. Jesus Christ. Yeah. Overall. Did you have any good sweats today?
40:09I had one that was like, it was a Bryce Young, um, or I had, I had two.
40:15I had one that was a Bryce Young double with Coker and, um, uh, McMillan.
40:20Dude, Coker, Coker. Coker. Yeah. The Coke heads are spinning.
40:23And then I had another good one with, uh, Trevor Lawrence, but it kind of fizzled out with, uh, I think I
40:31had too much charger exposure in that one. Yeah.
40:34And the fucking chargers, dude, I can't believe that shit.
40:38I really, the chargers are so tilting. Like the Mike McTain.
40:41I don't know why I fell for it again.
40:44Like. Nationwide is so much more than a great insurance company.
40:48They're one of America's largest financial services companies. Just like I'm so much more than quarterback Peyton Manning.
40:54I'm also Peyton Manning. Insurance and financial services together.
40:57It's a masterpiece. Peyton Manning does it again. For your insurance and financial needs.
41:02Nationwide is on your side. Nationwide Investment Services Corporation.
41:05Ember FINRA, Columbus, Ohio. Every game day you show up for your team.
41:10Now it's your time. Ask your prescriber about WeGovi.
41:13Some maglutide injection 2.4 milligrams. A GLP-1. Call 1-833-4-WEGOVI.
41:16Or visit WeGovi.com to view the medication guide and to learn more about WeGovi.
41:21Why wait? Oh, they got Mike McDaniel and his capris and his sandals.
41:25Like, it's going to be like the, you know, 2022 dolphins all over again or whatever fucking year.
41:31I mean, Jesus Christ. Like. Honestly, you know what?
41:35Marker, you're right. I can't. You know what? I can believe it.
41:39You know what? I actually should change my mind.
41:42I can believe it. Justin Herbert is straight up, bro.
41:45We talk about Justin Herbert like he's a fucking baby.
41:49He's 30, dude. He's never won a playoff game.
41:52He's not 30, is he? Is he really? No, he's got to be 26.
41:57Justin Herbert age. 28 years old. 28 years old.
42:00Never won a playoff game. I'm not 30. Jesus.
42:0328's basically 30. 28 might as well be 30.
42:0628 might as well be 30. 28 might as well be 30.
42:1030's now. But when you're in your 20s, you're like, dude, that's not even close.
42:15Dude, I just realized today. I'm like, I think I'm like the age now that Sammy was when we met him.
42:22And he was old when we met him. He was old.
42:26That is fucking old. Then you get in your 40s and you're like, yeah, 50's pretty old, man.
42:32This is, this is, I'm in the prime. So yeah, it just keeps going.
42:37I'm excited to see what happens in the 50s.
42:40Dude, the Chargers play the Raiders next week as like giga favorites again.
42:45Oh, let's go Gen Z. We're running it back.
42:48Yeah, we're running it back. I'm going right back to the Trey Tucker.
42:52I can't. I'm not going back to Trey Tucker.
42:55That is not happening for me. I will not be going.
42:59I will. I will. I will gladly. I will be gladly going back to, to mayor though.
43:05Easily, easily back to, to Michael mayor. So Michael mayor ran 23 routes, which on the Raiders was 27.
43:11Yeah. So he ran, he ran the second most routes on the Raiders.
43:16I can't believe we took Charlie fucking Kolar over him in that best ball, man.
43:21I actually don't think we, I actually don't think we did.
43:25Oh really? He was not. I think I believe, I believe we got, I believe we got sniped on that.
43:32That'll really, that'll really make me feel better about my life.
43:35Honestly. Like Michael mayor is a dude. I mean, I just, I just, I just sent you the charger.
43:42Didn't I. I don't know. I don't know. Well, I, not good.
43:46I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.
43:49I don't know. I'm like making all these prize picks and underdog tickets.
43:54Trey McBride is there at 56 and a half yards.
43:57And I'm like, nah. And literally a drive and a half in, he's got it.
44:02And I was just like, what am I thinking?
44:05I'm like sweating Chris bell overs. And I'm just like, why did I not put Trey McBride in?
44:12Like at 56 and a half, what am I thinking?
44:15What are we thinking? The, the reports of his demise.
44:18I mean, people were like, Oh, Colson Loveland over Trey McBride.
44:22And I kind of thought so too. Um, I know it's just one week overreaction maybe, but Jesus Christ, that looks bad.
44:30Kendrick, Kendrick Bourne, by the way, that's going to be real inconvenient truth for Michael Wilson.
44:35If you were a, if you were a Michael Wilson, bro.
44:39Inconvenient truth for, uh, Harrison, who's just. He just needs to retire.
44:43He just, it's just, it's just about us. I mean, the, the one thing, the one thing is unreal.
44:50If his dad was like really loved him, his dad would like drug him and put him in a dungeon.
44:56And then he'd show up to the game in uniform and play for him.
45:01And he'd be way better. Yep. That's a dad move.
45:05All right, everyone. Thank you for watching and listening to the Gilcast.
45:09We will be back with all of you guys next week.
45:13Maybe we should do like a listener league or something.
45:16Well, no, we shouldn't do a listener league because we don't want people to know our lineups because then they won't want to watch the show.
45:25Um, so nevermind. I completely changed my mind about that.
45:28So we'll be back again with you next week.
45:32Hopefully featuring no charger talk. Honestly, if there's any charger talk, I hope it is.
45:37LOL. The chargers just got fucking mogged by, uh, by the, the last biggest Raiders and, and Michael Mayer.
45:43We will, uh, we'll see you then. Nationwide is so much more than a great insurance company.
45:49They're one of America's largest financial services companies. Just like I'm so much more than quarterback Peyton Manning.
45:55I'm also Peyton Manning. Insurance and financial services together.
45:58It's a masterpiece. Peyton Manning does it again. For your insurance and financial needs, Nationwide is on your side.
46:05Nationwide Investment Services Corporation, Ember FINRA, Columbus, Ohio. Every game day you show up for your team.
46:11Now it's your time. Ask your prescriber about WeGovi, semaglutide injection 2.4 milligrams, a GLP-1.
46:16Call 1-833-4-WEGOVI or visit wegovi.com to view the medication guide and to learn more about WeGovi.
46:21Why wait?
