Dynasty Underground - Breaking Down Ambiguous WR rooms w/ Jakob Sanderson
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 57 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 12, 2026
Published
Wed, August 12, 2026
22
Player insights
18
Players mentioned
Topics
Jalen McMillanMarvin Harrison Jr.Michael WilsonParker WashingtonBrian Thomas Jr.Bucky IrvingChris GodwinChristian McCaffreyDeebo SamuelDenzel BostonGreg WardJalen ReagorMalik NabersMike Evans
Player analysis
Player insights
Brian Thomas Jr.
NegativeProjection20:48
Despite being ranked around WR28, Brian Thomas Jr. has the potential to finish higher. However, his role is complicated by the team's ambiguous pass-catching room and his specific fit with Trevor Lawrence's passing style, which favors middle-of-the-field throws over outside-the-numbers touch passes.
Insight pageBucky Irving
NegativeInjury52:48
Despite conflicting reports from Todd Bowles regarding his injury status, Bucky Irving appears to be participating in training camp drills.
Insight pageChris Godwin
NegativeValue55:08
Godwin is currently undervalued in ADP, with the market ignoring his potential to remain the WR1 over teammates, though he carries the risk of an aging receiver coming off an injury-riddled season.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeUsage45:37
McCaffrey is expected to maintain a massive workload in the 49ers offense, with projections of 400 touches or injury risk being the primary outcomes.
Insight pageDeebo Samuel
NegativeRole48:05
Jacob Sanderson believes Deebo Samuel is 'washed' as a traditional receiver and struggles to separate, making him a risky asset who relies on schemed touches and YAC to provide value.
Insight pageDenzel Boston
PositiveValue69:48
Boston is a value target in dynasty drafts; while he is currently thriving in training camp as a jump-ball receiver, the team is advised to look past the 'camp star' narrative and focus on his underlying metrics like targets per route run to prepare for when he eventually gets a competent quarterback.
Insight pageGreg Ward
NegativeUsage42:32
Greg Ward Jr. led the 2020 Eagles in receptions, highlighting the extreme lack of depth and talent in that specific wide receiver room.
Insight pageJalen McMillan
PositiveBreakout52:45
Jalen McMillan is highlighted as a productive, efficient player who is undervalued due to the hype surrounding other teammates, making him a potential sleeper if injuries occur.
Insight pagePositiveValue59:55
McMillan is a value target because his market value has been suppressed by Puka Nacua hype; he is a potential WR2 on a high-powered offense who previously showed late-season rookie surge potential when injuries hit the depth chart.
Insight pageJalen Reagor
NegativeBust40:54
Jalen Reagor is cited as a major disappointment for the Eagles, failing to produce despite being expected to be a primary receiver.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeInjury61:08
The Underground remains high on Nabers' talent, viewing him as a potential top-three dynasty receiver, but they are wary of betting on his recovery from a multi-ligament knee injury. While he looks like a 'freak' in camp videos, the uncertainty of his knee's long-term health makes him a risky redraft asset.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveValue0:16
Jacob Sanderson views Marvin Harrison Jr. as a strong dynasty buy, arguing that the community's negative sentiment is overblown and driven by 'buyer's remorse' from those who drafted him at 1.01 or 1.02. Sanderson highlights that Harrison's 1.61 career yards per route run is respectable given his poor situation and notes that his dynasty value remains stable, making him a solid target if acquired for a late first-round pick.
Insight pagePositiveValue20:08
The bull case for Marvin Harrison Jr. is not necessarily a specific 1,200-yard projection, but rather that his current draft cost has dropped enough to make him an attractive target relative to his high upside.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
NegativeBust0:13
Jacob Sanderson expresses skepticism regarding Michael Wilson, noting that his production spikes occurred in games without Marvin Harrison Jr. and under a different coaching staff. Citing a list of similar players (e.g., Hunter Renfro, Russell Gage) who failed to sustain second-half breakouts, Sanderson argues that Wilson's success was likely a 'lightning in a bottle' scenario that is unlikely to repeat given the current team context.
Insight pageNegativeUsage19:44
In redraft formats, Michael Wilson should be treated like a backup running back; he is a viable start only when Marvin Harrison Jr. or Trey McBride are sidelined. If all three are active, he is not a recommended fantasy option.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeValue46:45
Jacob Sanderson views Mike Evans as a premier Dynasty buy because his current price only requires one year of production to pay off, effectively acting as a low-risk, year-to-year bet.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveSleeper0:12
Jacob Sanderson is surprisingly optimistic about Parker Washington, viewing him as an underrated prospect who demonstrated elite per-route efficiency late last season. Unlike Michael Wilson, Sanderson believes Washington's situation remains stable, allowing for a potential continuation of his late-season production in the same role with the same quarterback and coaching staff.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout21:59
Parker Washington is viewed as a high-ceiling target in the Jaguars' offense. Historical trends from Liam Cohen's previous offenses (Kentucky, Rams, Bucs) suggest a strong emphasis on the slot/F-receiver role, which aligns with Washington's usage.
Insight pageRome Odunze
NegativeProjection0:16
Jacob Sanderson notes that Rome Odunze has been mildly disappointing through two years, yet maintains a higher level of optimism from the fantasy community compared to Marvin Harrison Jr. Sanderson suggests that while Odunze has had some production excuses, his dynasty value has remained relatively flat since he was drafted.
Insight pageTravis Fulgham
NegativeUsage40:24
Fulgham had a bizarre career arc with the 2020 Eagles, recording 67 targets, 38 receptions, 539 yards, and four touchdowns, but failed to record a target or reception in 2021 and never played another NFL game.
Insight pageTravis Hunter
NegativeRole25:52
Reports suggest the team intends to give Travis Hunter a significant offensive role, potentially playing up to 50% of snaps. This usage is expected to come at the expense of Jacoby Myers' route share.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
NegativeUsage28:31
Trevor Lawrence thrives on layered throws over the middle and dig routes, but he struggles with accuracy and touch on deep balls outside the numbers. This stylistic limitation may impact the ceiling of outside receivers like Brian Thomas Jr.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:25Oh the BC, Travis Fulgham was on the BC Lions?
0:28Oh shit. He was on the BC Lions two years ago.
0:31Baja Canada has a team? Dude you watch your mouth when you talk about the CFL.
0:36Those are fighting words, you don't talk about our shit.
0:39John Gruden will be on your case right now.
0:41I usually get away with these jokes. I need Jacks back in my corner.
0:45Sights and sounds and edges found. You will now get down with The Underground.
0:49Post it up on the OTC Fantasy YouTube channel.
0:52Dynasty Underground is back in your life. We are also of course on your favorite audio platforms and check out all of our work at otcffb.com.
1:00I put up my 2026 rankings just this week so go check those out.
1:04And of course Frank Amarante is ranking for us as well.
1:07So check it out. Season is fast approaching. So that OTC subscription has never been more important for making your lineup moves
1:14and waiver moves and trade suggestions and all of that jazz cabbage.
1:17But thank you for joining. I am Trav, of course, Hostin and West Coastin.
1:22A little bit of a different vibe tonight. With me is Joe Quavius Kuvitakis back from a month in Greece picking olives.
1:28This is an absolute true story. Joe brought 17 kilograms of olive oil back to the United States with him from Greece.
1:35Joe, how are you tonight? Joe, how are you tonight?
1:38I swear that's true. He told me I thought he was joking.
1:41It sounds cooler when you say when you start the sentence with I brought 17 kilos instead of kilograms.
1:47So just keep it keep it at kilos. Right.
1:49And just let people wonder. I'm so glad to be back.
1:53I've missed the hell out of you guys. Well, Jacob, I just met.
1:56But how do you Trav? Yeah, I missed you, buddy.
1:59You know, I thought I was going to be coming home just, you know, into our regular routine.
2:05And all of a sudden, I'm outflanked. I find myself in the middle of a Canadian standoff.
2:10So pumped to be back. Excited to have a guest.
2:13This is a rare occurrence for us. So I'm going to let you take it away.
2:18Trav. Jacob, thanks for joining. Yeah, for sure. Jacob, for some context, we when the whole 51st state stuff was happening, we
2:24had a couple of bits on the show where the boys were saying that I was from Baja, Canada, or we could
2:31we could say that I'm from Washington, B.C. And so for me, having a second Canadian on this show is an absolute
2:37treat because I'm not getting outnumbered by these separatist bastards.
2:40And as as you mentioned there, yeah, got a little treat for the listeners tonight.
2:44We were talking to Jax in the group chat earlier today, and he was a little bit worried that we might have
2:51a Wally Pip situation happening on our hands. But we're not going to go fully Wally Pip and replace him on the show.
2:58I do love that he's not being complacent while he's on his own vacation.
3:02So he'll come back with a vengeance, I'm sure.
3:05But our first non OTC guest, one of the sharpest people that we have in fantasy land.
3:10You've seen him on Dynasty Points. If you haven't already, make sure you go subscribe to thinking about thinking on Substack and his new show.
3:17We were just talking about it before the show.
3:20The Long View with Ben Gretch is an absolute banger.
3:23Long form episodes that really go deep into the world of all football.
3:27Not just fantasy, I would say a fellow Canadian Jacob Sanderson.
3:30Long intro, buddy, but thank you for joining. It's been a long time coming.
3:34Hell yeah, I'm thrilled to be on the show, man.
3:37Happy to be here. Yeah, going to be a good time and just excited to have you on because I think, you
3:43know, all of your content is the words I would use is kind of thought provoking.
3:48It makes you think a little bit differently. You think about this stuff a little bit differently.
3:53And so you kind of share it with all of us to start thinking that way as well.
3:59Hence the name thinking about thinking, which I thought was very fitting for you to choose for the Substack.
4:04But joining the underground tonight, I told you before the show, we like to let our hair down.
4:10So all of our audience knows that we like to have a little fun on the underground.
4:15We're going to talk about something that you have been writing about, Jacob.
4:18Ambiguous wide receiver rooms across the NFL. And we are going to touch on a couple of the teams that you did talk about on your Substack series.
4:27Five teams you covered. It was a six part series, starting with a piece on whether we should invest in ambiguous wide receiver groups or not.
4:34And I'm curious to hear your thoughts, Jacob, because we've got a lot of things shifting around the play calling and personnel
4:41landscape by way of heavier tight end sets. You wrote a great piece on the Substack and heard you talk about it
4:47on some shows and stuff like that. We've talked about it on the underground.
4:52So I want you to talk about, first off, how you think this kind of new wave of NFL play calling is
4:58impacting your approach to these ambiguous wide receiver rooms.
5:01I know there was good conversation on the long view as well.
5:04So I wonder if you'd share with our listeners.
5:07Of course. So I think the first thing that I should establish is like ambiguous wide receiver rooms is itself a very
5:14ambiguous term that could mean kind of anything. So, you know, I used the term, but I meant something specific, which was
5:20wide receiver rooms where essentially the market is deciding that there is value to be had, but they're not sure who to draft.
5:27And so the way I kind of wrote up my proxy for that was I looked at wide receiver rooms with three
5:33players going at least in the first 10 rounds, but none of which in the first two rounds.
5:39So three receivers or tight ends. So pass catchers, three receivers or tight ends going rounds three through 10.
5:44Because, you know, you could also argue like the Miami Dolphins have an ambiguous pass catching room this year.
5:50But, you know, it's a very it's ambiguous in a very different way.
5:54So this was looking at something a little bit different.
5:57And what I found was interesting, kind of the reason I kind of got into this is I remember JJ did some
6:03great work on ambiguous running back rooms a little while ago.
6:07And his finding was not that surprising to me, which is that we should be investing in ambiguous running back rooms.
6:13It's generally a plus EV thing to do. And I kind of expected similar results with wide receiver rooms because I often
6:19feel as though the fantasy market probably overplays, in my opinion, some of the like guaranteed volume aspects.
6:25And I think sometimes underplays, like if there's multiple players that are going in close proximity to each other, maybe that's a
6:31spot to attack because you get this kind of pressurization effect.
6:34But it's showing there's probably some value there. Anyways, so all that being said, I was kind of surprised a little bit
6:41that the base hit rate was poor for the players in these ambiguous pass catcher groups.
6:46But that also kind of makes some sense because you are getting pretty unclear paths to targets.
6:51The positive aspect is, though, the ceiling outcomes were really, really high when players did hit.
6:56And by hit, I define that as having a point per game or more better than your average draft position expectation.
7:02The actual hit rate was below average. The ceiling cases were pretty amazing.
7:06This was this group of players included Jamar Chase's rookie season.
7:09That was a league winning smash. Cooper Cups record setting season that same year.
7:13Multiple huge Debo seasons in 2021 and 2023. There was some stuff in like the Tom Brady box.
7:18JSN's not his season last year, but his 2024 season was in this.
7:22Brian Thomas' rookie season was in this. So a lot of really impactful seasons came from this cohort.
7:28And so the other interesting stuff that I saw was that actually it's the players usually with the higher ADPs, both relative
7:34to the market at large and relative to their teammates that tend to do better.
7:38So if you have like, you know, one guy goes in round four, one guy goes in round six, one guy goes in round eight.
7:46A lot of times you'll hear fantasy analysts say, I'm just going to take the cheapest one.
7:51I can't decide. Historically, that's not really been the way that things tend to go.
7:55It's usually actually the guys that you pay up for have a little bit better of a hit rate.
8:01That's especially too, and we're talking with veterans. The only hit that was a year three or later player that was in
8:08round six through 10 from this cohort. And it was only going back five years was Debo in his third year.
8:14All the other hits either came from rookies, second year players or veterans with a top five round ADP.
8:19So if you're, if you know a lot about this player that you should probably already be drafting the high, if they're going to have that ceiling.
8:27If it's a rookie or a second year player can probably take some shots a little bit further down the ADP list.
8:34And then the last thing I wanted to hit on is that this is like very unsurprising, but every hit on this
8:40list, except for two that had come from these parameters, either came from a top 10 pass volume offense or a top two yards per attempt passing offense.
8:49So, I mean, not really that surprising, but if we're saying that there's a lot of wide receivers and tight ends that
8:55are all pretty talented for there to be some hits.
8:58Yeah. They're either going to need to pass a lot or they're going to need to pass really efficiently.
9:04It's a little bit of like a no shit, but it is something to keep in mind where if you're looking at
9:10some of these pass catching groups, can you see that outcome?
9:14Because if not, it's probably going to be tough for anyone to hit.
9:17It's especially going to be hard for multiple players to hit.
9:21There's a lot to unpack there. Thanks for the overview.
9:24I actually thought it was like super interesting when I was reading sort of the parameters in one of your subsack posts.
9:30Like everything you said is actually really intuitive and kind of what I would expect.
9:35I thought it was, you know, one, we always say here targets are earned, right?
9:39That's something we talk about constantly. And that's, you know, same rationale, right?
9:43Why don't we handcuff wide receivers? Why don't we like backup wide receivers stepping into a role?
9:48It's because they still have to be able to earn targets.
9:51So that's the first thing that I thought about.
9:54But then when you layer it with the top 10 offenses and with the first and second year players, then it starts
10:00to make a lot more sense and becomes a lot more intuitive.
10:04So I'm totally buying into that and I'm loving it.
10:07I actually wanted to, if we could just dive into the Cardinals a little bit because that was, if I'm not mistaken,
10:14your most recent post and what I think I'm most excited about.
10:17Trav, anything to add to that? Get in there, brother, and fire away.
10:21Let's talk about the cards. Yeah. What do you want to know?
10:24Well, everything you just said kind of points to MHJ and it's not surprising that you had some bullish takes.
10:30I think the dynasty community at large is pretty interested in Michael Wilson and not exactly sure what to do.
10:36And so I just want to hear your thoughts a little bit on Wilson versus MHJ.
10:41Of course, there's the Trey McBride factor as well, but just give us a little bit on that.
10:46So, I mean, the first thing I should just lay out is this whole series was based around redraft ADPs or actually,
10:53well, it was actually based on seasonal best ball ADPs.
10:56But I tried to frame it as a best ball and redraft post was not really like intended as a dynasty post.
11:02The ADPs obviously would be wildly different if it was a dynasty post.
11:06But like anyone who's playing dynasty, I mean, you know that how these players perform on a redraft basis is going to
11:13be massive for whether or not there's someone that you should invest in a dynasty this year.
11:18So I think it's broadly applicable. Yeah, I want to, I know you won't ask about the Cardinals, but I think I
11:24want to combine this conversation a little bit with the Jaguars because I want to display my open-mindedness.
11:30So like, I, as a, as a traditional rule, like I'm not usually a guy who's going to be super in on
11:36the like out of nowhere hit and bet on that continuing.
11:39That's like not really my sort of ideological preference.
11:42I mean, I just started a podcast. It's named the long view.
11:46One of the reasons why is that like, that's a, it's a shared, um, ideal of like Ben and I to consistently
11:52not just look at the most recent thing that happens.
11:55Like let's put everything in context of the player's whole career, what the context is of that career, their college career, et cetera, et cetera.
12:03So I'm kind of predisposed to not really be a Michael Wilson guy.
12:06That being said, I'm also not supposed to be a Parker Washington guy.
12:10And yet if you read my Jaguars post, I came out more optimistic on Parker than any of the other Jaguars.
12:16And part of that is because I felt there were very interesting elements to that specific situation that made me at least
12:23open-minded about making kind of an exception to the general rules of how I play.
12:27Um, part of that is that Parker Washington, I thought was a legitimately underrated prospect, despite being a day three guy at a pretty reasonable production profile.
12:35Um, he also succeeded in the exact same role with the exact same teammates, exception of Travis Hunter.
12:41Um, and the same coach, the same quarterback that he's going to be in this year.
12:46So like, it's at least theoretically possible that we could just copy and paste the end of season role to this year
12:52and see whether he's able to perform at the same level.
12:55We also add like legitimately elite, um, per route numbers towards the end of the season that were so strong that his
13:02whole season for a profile actually looks, um, really, really strong.
13:05And he was, again, he was out competing the guys.
13:08He's going to have to out-compete for targets this year in the same role.
13:12Michael Wilson was, uh, I mean, he was, uh, he was drafted higher, which is like almost bearish to me in the
13:19sense of like, it's a guy that should have had opportunity sooner.
13:22He did have opportunity sooner, um, and didn't really pop for multiple seasons.
13:26Um, but I thought was a less inspiring college prospect, at least analytically speaking.
13:30And then even last year, there's just a lot of warning signs.
13:34Like when he shared the field with Marvin Harrison last year, he was frankly pretty useless in fantasy.
13:39He actually had a lower yards per route run last year in games that he shared the field with Marvin Harrison than
13:46he had in even at his previous years. So we didn't really see that progression.
13:50What we specifically saw was a progression in a handful of games with Jacoby and no Marv.
13:55Um, and he was awesome in those games. He was a little bit less awesome on like a per route basis than
14:02he was overall because the drop back volume was insane.
14:05It's a little bit of like the Jerry Judy, um, James Winston stuff, uh, that was happening at the end of the
14:11season where the per route stuff was a little bit less dramatic when the whole season.
14:16But Michael Wilson was still really good. And it's, it's not all about the per route stuff.
14:21Like to be able to keep up that level of production on volume, that's impressive in its own right.
14:27So he was great in that stretch. It's just, if I'm looking at projecting that forward, it's, it's, it's like a big
14:33red flag overall, but this is a guy that kind of came out of nowhere.
14:38It's a big red flag that he didn't do it next to Marvin Harrison, which is what he's going to need to do to produce this year.
14:46It's a big red flag that he was doing it with a completely different coaching staff than he's going to have this year.
14:52And like, you look at the history of guys like this, Dwayne McFarland had a tweet, um, where he laid out all,
14:59all of the dudes who had fit. I can't remember the, I'm going to pull it up right now.
15:05Um, just so I have the tweet in front of me.
15:08He said, um, how often have we seen non round one or round two NFL draft picks average 14 plus points per
15:14game in the second half of a year, three to five season without previously having ever scored 10 points per game, uh, in a fantasy season.
15:22And then how do they do in the following season?
15:25Um, and they all did worse some way worse.
15:28Um, but this was a Hunter Renfro, Rashard Matthews, Marquise Goodwin, Marcus Wheaton, Russell Gage, Juwan Jennings.
15:33And yikes. And so, yeah, there's no success stories from that group.
15:36Um, but one of the reasons why I think it's especially cautious, like a lot of these guys had things change around them the next year.
15:44Hunter Renfro got Devante Adams dropped on his lap and got a new coach.
15:48Um, Russell Gage changed teams. Uh, Juwan Jennings was competing against, uh, no one really.
15:53And then other players came back from injury, uh, the next season.
15:56Um, Marquise Goodwin got a new quarterback and had different receivers added.
16:00I couldn't possibly tell you what happened in Marcus Wheaton's career, but anyways, my point is like a lot of the time,
16:06what happens is specific circumstances arise to make some of these guys.
16:10It hits and those circumstances never happen again. It's like lightning in a bottle.
16:14And at least with Parker Washington, it looks like the circumstances are going to remain stable.
16:19Michael Wilson, not quite as much. I struggle to buy into that.
16:22So, um, I'm kind of projecting a base skepticism on Wilson.
16:25He's really cheap in dynasty though. So like, I don't really have an issue if you want to go out and, and spend on that.
16:33Um, he's pretty darn affordable. Um, and then Marvin Harrison, I think is a great buy in dynasty.
16:38I've not been saying that for either of the last two seasons, but, uh, I don't, I think it is over played by a long shot.
16:46How much of a boss this guy is. He's got a career yards program on 1.61.
16:51That's like totally fine in pretty poor situations. Um, it's like, I, I, I hate to do it to you.
16:57Cause I know this is your boy, but like, that's like almost 0.3 higher than Roma Dune say, for instance.
17:03Um, and like, I think one of, well, look, I'm not, I'm not burying Roma Dune say.
17:08No, it's cool. It's cool. But, but it's interesting to me that I think there's a lot more optimism in the fantasy
17:14community at large for Dune say than there is Harrison.
17:17And I feel as though now there's some, some legitimate excuses with some of the Dune say production, but overall, I think
17:24one of the reasons why is that. I mean, both these guys were well liked as prospects, but Harrison was viewed as
17:30like generational and a Dune say was viewed as very good.
17:33And so even though a Dune say has been mildly disappointing, I would say through two years, it's not like people, you
17:40know, we're valuing him as being worth like three first round picks.
17:43Like his, his dynasty value today is pretty similar to what it was when he was drafted.
17:48Um, and so people don't feel as burn. Whereas the people took Marvin Harrison, they took him with the one Oh one or the one Oh two.
17:56They passed on Malik neighbors and Jaden Daniels to do it.
18:00They feel sick to their stomach that they made this choice.
18:03And he's, he's like a reminder of past failure for them.
18:06And so I think people see him as this massive bust.
18:09I mean, I would argue if we're being logical about this, like, even if you want to say Marvin Harrison and Rome
18:16have been the same throughout their careers, well, I would be like, well, then I'd rather have the better prospect, right?
18:22Not the worst prospect. It's like almost because he was the better prospect people are dogging on him more.
18:28So anyhow, I think that Harrison, I think Harrison has a floor of being worth like an early two to a mid two for a very long time.
18:36So if you can get them for a late one, the floor of that value loss, it's not that big of a deal.
18:43And I still don't think it's out of the question.
18:46He becomes like a two first plus player. You know, if we see that big ascension in year three.
18:52Yeah. And I think it's actually really important to hit on a couple of notes.
18:56You mentioned like the Jerry Judy corollary here with Michael Wilson and just the sheer volume of pass attempts in Arizona last
19:03year that, you know, Marv participated in, but he was hurt.
19:06He, I think only played 12 games, but if you look at them on a per route basis, like yards per route
19:12run, they were basically 0.01 off of each other.
19:15Right. So in terms of efficiency with, you know, their targets, they were actually pretty comparable.
19:20And to the point you hit on, like when they were on the field at the same time, Michael Wilson actually, you
19:26know, went from Superman to just very mortal. Uh, and so that's kind of, uh, I'm, I'm picking up what you're putting down for those reasons alone.
19:34Cause Marvin Harrison isn't going anywhere. The team is obviously motivated to see him succeed.
19:39They spent a lot of draft capital on him.
19:41He's not going to wear McBride's not going to wear.
19:44So the situation, it's almost like the way you have to play it, especially in redraft is we have Michael Wilson.
19:51It's like a backup running back. It's like, you know, when to start them.
19:55Like if Marvin Harrison's out or if Trey McBride is out, that's when you're playing your Michael Wilson with confidence.
20:01But if all three are playing, like I, I just don't see a scenario in which he's the dude you want in this offense.
20:08And I think it's interesting with Marv too, because I would say that the bull case isn't necessarily that we're so sure
20:14he's going to go for 1212 this year. I think the bull cases that his cost is finally down enough where we're
20:21ready to take that shot versus the upside. And I'm with you, Jacob.
20:25Like, I think, I think Michael Wilson is a little bit of that perfect storm guy, you know?
20:30And I think I'm, I'm confident in Lafleur coming in and being the coach and having the ability to prioritize the guys
20:36who are most talented on his team. And so, yeah, best situation Marv's ever had for sure.
20:42And I'm excited about that. We're going to talk a little bit about these Jaguars guys as well, because I am a BTJ guy.
20:49I think there's going to be various times where these guys are all a little bit frustrating.
20:54And Jacob, much like you, I've been in a little bit of like 2026 season analysis mode lately with all these best
21:00ball drafts that I'm doing and then working on my 2026 rankings.
21:04And I found that for these ambiguous situations and, and maybe the Jaguars being one of the most paramount of them.
21:10I think for me, when I'm evaluating them, I'm looking at the ceiling as a little bit of maybe a cherry on
21:16top, especially when I think of the ranks, because them all being there suppresses the top guys rank.
21:22Right. Like I, but I still think that the top guy in this Jaguars offense could finish better than like the wide
21:28receiver 28 that I have BTJ at. Right. And so I think that's what you're saying is like the value on these
21:35guys can be so good if you wade into some of that ambiguity.
21:39And I don't know, I think I'm still leaning towards BTJ.
21:42I'm hearing a lot of good things about how obviously how he played down the stretch a little bit better.
21:48And then about how Jacoby Myers kind of sets everybody to where they need to be on this team.
21:54You know what I mean? And I wonder, cause I kind of think that partial Parker Washington is more of like a
22:00bit of a proxy for Jacoby Myers in that offense than he is for Brian Thomas.
22:05So I think Brian Thomas jr. probably has one of the more secure roles in that team.
22:10But what, what do you think in terms of maybe the second guy, if you're the most bullish on Parker Washington?
22:16Yeah. So on Jacksonville, I think the, the best things that all the Jaguars have going is that the macro trends are very favorable.
22:23This is an offense we expect to be good.
22:26It's an offense. I do expect to be top 10 in past attempts this year.
22:30It's an offense that I probably wouldn't say I expect to be top two in yards per attempt, but I think it's
22:37certainly be top 10, certainly be top five. So you're getting, I think a high volume, fast paced, efficient offense.
22:43That's really positive. The one thing that I think is really unique to Jacksonville, like unique in the history of fantasy football,
22:49and which makes it very hard to apply anything aggregate is that we have a second overall pick.
22:55Like who's probably really talented, who we have no idea how much he's going to play, but whose playing time is like
23:01not based on how good or bad he is.
23:04And it's largely based on like how much corner he plays and how much the team will let him play both sides.
23:10And like, I can do all the historical data mining.
23:13I want, there's nothing I can do that can prepare me for that factor.
23:17That is, that is a one of one situation in fantasy football history.
23:21So, I mean, it is really difficult to like make sense of all of the different things that you hear out of Jacksonville.
23:28And Gretchen and I were talking about our boy, John Shipley again on the long view today, because look, he, he's, he's,
23:35he's the goat, but like everything is awesome. When Shipley's reporting it.
23:38And I mean, I believe that some things are awesome in Jacksonville, but like, here are all the different things.
23:44You kind of have to believe it's like on one end.
23:47So, so Parker Washington Shipley is saying he's going to play every snap.
23:51He's going to play in the slot. He's going to play flanker in two artists, super sets.
23:56He's going to lead them in snaps and he's going to lead them in production.
24:01All right. So draft Parker, Washington. Also, you know, everywhere you look, Brian Thomas is getting hyped up every single day.
24:07One of my worries about Brian Thomas, why I'm not quite as high on him is a lot of the time that he gets hyped.
24:14It's in the context of like what he does for the offense or how he opens things up for other guys or
24:21how he's going to get mashup at number one corners.
24:24Like there's, there's a, you know, and, and a lot of the tenor of the conversation with Thomas is last year.
24:30When you heard Liam Cohen talk in the off season, all the talk about Brian Thomas was, Hey, last year he was
24:37used in this pretty static way under the old coaching staff.
24:40I'm going to get him more reps in motion.
24:42I'm going to get him more over the middle of the field.
24:46We're going to expand his route tree. Well, they did that.
24:49Unfortunately, he wasn't very good at that. So then this year, all the talk of Brian Thomas jr.
24:55Is we're going to get him back to work in vertical.
24:58He looks amazing at that. He's going to play X receiver.
25:01Here's why that's so important for our offense. And it's going to be great.
25:05I don't know that the positivity around Brian Thomas jr.
25:08Is entirely correlated to his own production, but I totally buy what you were saying about.
25:13He has a very secure role in the office.
25:16I think that he like him out there at X receiver does a lot for everybody.
25:20And I don't know how you take that off the field very frequently.
25:24And then Jacoby Myers was the one guy down the stretch who led them in routes.
25:29He was running 96% of the routes in the five games that these three played together at the end of the year.
25:36Brian Thomas was in the eighties park. Watch was in the seventies.
25:39Jacoby Myers was the one who never came off the field.
25:42They offered him and they signed him to a big extension.
25:46So, and we got our boy Shipley saying Travis Hunter is going to play 50% of the offensive snaps this year.
25:52Like, so how does this add up? Because last year they had an average of 2.58 wide receivers per drop back.
25:58So the other way you could put that is let's pretend 13 personnel doesn't exist for a second.
26:03And they ran two receiver sets about 60% of the time.
26:07And they ran or sorry, about 40% of the time.
26:10They ran three receiver sets, about 60% of the time.
26:13Let's assume that stable. And it might even go down because they just drafted two tight ends in the, in the NFL draft.
26:19But let's assume that stable. So you start adding up the route shares, like literally Ben and I did this on the show today.
26:27We were like in week one, how do we think the routes are going to get allocated?
26:32And we said, we thought it would be like 80, 80 for Parker and Thomas and 70 for Myers and 35 for Hunter.
26:38And it's like, that's like kind of like a compromise where like everyone is kind of okay.
26:43But like, what if someone is 95? Well, that kind of inherently has to mean that someone is like 50.
26:49Um, you know, one of the other top three.
26:52So anyways, I think that there is a world in which the Jacksonville Jaguars are a good passing offense, but they, they
26:59play a little bit more 12 and they're splitting the routes around.
27:02And it's like a bit green Bay Packers. He not, not this year's green Bay Packers, but like the previous year's green Bay Packers.
27:09Where it's like, well, Romeo Dobbs is running a lot of routes, but no one wants to play Romeo Dobbs.
27:15And we really wish Jaden Reed or Christian Watson would run more routes, but they aren't.
27:20So you can't start them. And then like Bo Melton's on my screen for some reason.
27:25Um, and it's just like, that's a world in which everything loses where the macro trends don't because it just doesn't consolidate.
27:31So if I had to pick one that I think has the highest ceiling, I'm backing Parker because I just look at Liam Cohen's offenses.
27:39Historically, I'm like, I usually don't do this type of analysis, but I'm doing it here because it's such a consistent trend.
27:45You go back to when he was at Kentucky, Wondell Robinson was like running the world in college fantasy back on the
27:52Liam Cohen, Kentucky teams as a slot receiver. And then he was on staff, of course, for the Cooper cup record setting season with the Rams.
27:59Uh, Chris Godwin was the wide receiver two and points per game at the time that he got injured when he was with the box.
28:07And that's like the only season he's been at that level since 2020.
28:11Um, and that was with Liam Cohen at the sticks.
28:14And then last year we saw the Parker stuff.
28:16So I do think there's an element to which Liam Cohen really wants to run his offense for the F receiver.
28:22And if that's Parker's position, that's kind of how I want to play it.
28:27And I'd add that Lawrence also seems more comfortable throwing to the middle of the field.
28:31Like, um, I, I'm, I had zero time for the Mac Jones is better than Trevor Lawrence people.
28:37But I do think that there's a stylistic thing with Trevor in that he, he has great arm strength.
28:42So like in terms of, can he rifle it in on the dig route?
28:46Can he, can he hit that layered throw over the middle?
28:50Absolutely. He actually thrives on that throw. What he can't really do is for outside the numbers with touch.
28:55Um, and he, he often can struggle with accuracy outside the numbers, but he especially doesn't really have that.
29:01Like you think of the best deep ball throwers.
29:04It's not just about how far can you throw it?
29:07It's like, how can you get the height on it?
29:10And, and can you vary the speed? Like you think of Jalen hurts, uh, Russell Wilson guys who are like really good at dropping it in the bucket.
29:18Lawrence just does not have that. His deep ball is flat.
29:21And so he doesn't really exactly. And so like, if you need a guy to throw an 18 yard line drive or
29:28do a dig road over the middle, Trevor Lawrence is your guy.
29:31But if you want someone to like throw that drop in the bucket on a 30 yard corner or a 50 yard
29:38go ball, that's just not really his strength. And so I think Thomas is going to have spike games for sure.
29:44Um, I do think he will be the number two target leader on the offense.
29:48Um, and maybe the number one, but I I'm less optimistic that the offense is going to run through him if he's playing that outside role.
29:56And I don't, and I think that what we saw from last year is like Thomas doesn't thrive going over the middle
30:03of the field and they found someone else who does.
30:06And their offense was humming with Thomas at X and Washington at F.
30:09So why would they, you know, why, why would they reinvent the wheel on that?
30:14Yeah. I would say they found two other guys that do right with Jacoby as well, because that offense was super disjointed
30:20the first, I don't know, six games of the season.
30:23Right. We were starting to hit the panic button on Trevor Lawrence on the offense in general.
30:28Uh, then they trade for Jacoby Myers and the way, maybe this is revisionist history, but the way I remember it is basically the offense instantly looked better.
30:37It was instantly fixed. And that's what's tricky to me about this situation is that is about the same time that Parker Washington started playing more.
30:44So you had these two factors come into play at the same time.
30:48Jacoby Myers enters the equation and Parker Washington's playtime significantly increases.
30:51Uh, and that's where Parker took off. But also as you alluded to, like they re-signed Myers in season, they extended him in season.
30:59So clearly he's part of the plan. So, uh, I've been struggling a lot with this one because I was a big
31:05BTJ guy coming out of college, uh, and very bullish on him.
31:09And then obviously all indicators in his rookie year were super positive, but the points you just touched on in terms of,
31:15you know, we'll call it for lack of a better term, the layering of Lawrence's throws being incongruent with what BTJ is
31:22best at actually makes a ton of sense. It kind of leads me to like wonder, it's like, you know, and Jacoby
31:28Myers is a long time favorite of this show just because we play in deep dynasty leagues, start 12s.
31:34Right. And Jacoby Myers is just a cheap hero in those formats, just a dude that you can fill a flex spot
31:40with and like pretty consistently produces anywhere he goes.
31:43Like I kind of see myself, feel myself wondering like, is it Myers and Parker Washington?
31:48Because those are actually the top two sort of fits with Lawrence's game.
31:52And I don't know, I'm getting like real bearish on BTJ as we're having this conversation here.
31:57Here's why I don't think that Myers is the guy.
32:00Um, now look, if you want like a really cheap dynasty flex filler, maybe he accomplishes that for you.
32:05Um, I can totally see that, but in terms of the upside, so this is, this is a sample of five games.
32:12It's the only five games last year that Thomas Myers and Washington all started and finished because there's a couple of games,
32:18like one of them left halfway through, um, but games that they started and finished.
32:23So Parker, like this shocked me when I wrote my article, because I remember Jacoby Myers being more productive than he was,
32:29um, because he coincided with the offense getting better and he got a lot of credit, but he actually wasn't that productive.
32:36A lot of, I think like what they gave him credit for was like telling guys where to line up and like run blocking.
32:43Um, and I mean, that's something gets you play time, but productivity wise Parker, Washington, 28% targets per outrun 3.47 yards per
32:49route run 16.6 half PPR points per game. I just got his Puka Nakua for five games.
32:54Um, and then Thomas was down at just 14% targets per run 1.23 yards per outrun 7.8 points per game.
33:00And this stunned me Jacoby Myers 0.18. So 18% targets per run 1.13 yards per run 6.3 half PPR points per game in that sample.
33:08He had a couple of interesting games. Um, when Thomas was out, uh, before, uh, and, and also kind of before Parker
33:14had really started to heat up where Myers was kind of the stabilizing force and they weren't like amazing games that they
33:21were kind of like 12, 14 point games. A couple of touchdowns, I think.
33:25Yeah. And he was, he was solid there for a bit, but then that end of season stretch as they really got
33:32hot and they went into the playoff game when Thomas was back.
33:35I mean, I don't know if he was healthy, but he was playing anyway.
33:39And, um, and Washington was heating up Myers was a bit more of an afterthought.
33:44Um, and then I do really, the more I'm reading into the reports and stuff, like if they actually do want Hunter
33:50to play a decent amount, and maybe this is all just is going to be a nothing burger.
33:56He's gonna play five routes a game. I don't know, but like they keep insisting that Hunter's going to have a real offensive role.
34:03I feel like that almost has to come at Jacoby Myers expense because they've been so adamant about Parker Washington being the
34:09guy they've been so forceful about Brian Thomas and how much he opens up the offense for everyone else.
34:15And it's like, well, then there's only one other option of how we get Travis Hunter on the field a lot.
34:21And it has to come at Jacoby's expense. And so I guess I look at Jacoby, I'm like, what's the hit here?
34:28It's not that great. Like, and then the, what's the miss here is that he's playing half the routes because they're trying
34:34to find a way to get Travis Hunter on the field.
34:37And then he, so I do think he's a bit of a small hit, big miss earlier in the off season.
34:44I was drafting actually a good chunk of Jacoby because I looked at it as I was like, who knows what this Parker Washington thing is?
34:51Maybe he's like the guy missing out with Hunter.
34:54Maybe they're going to trade Brian Thomas Jr. Or maybe they think he sucks or whatever.
34:59Like, you know, early in the off season, the vibes on Thomas Jr.
35:03Were terrible. And then ever since then, they've been awesome.
35:05So as the, as the vibes have increased on Parker and Thomas, and as they've continued to be adamant that Hunter's going
35:12to play, like it really makes a low floor for Myers and he's not that high ceiling.
35:17So I've been pretty, I'm still above market on Myers in my like overall exposures, but I'm not trying to add to
35:24that because I guess what I'm trying to say.
35:26And oh, the last thing, I mean, this is going to be such a long podcast because I just kind of rant on and on and on.
35:34Welcome to the underground. This is an interesting one.
35:37This applies to both Myers and Michael Wilson. And look, like what's, what's past is prologue.
35:42Like this is not determinative by any stretch. Whenever I do these kind of like past data studies, I always stress that
35:48you don't have to ever feel bound to them.
35:51Every situation is its own thing, but it's at least interesting.
35:54This is players that hit my ambiguous past catcher room criteria.
35:57So that have multiple teammates drafted between rounds three and 10.
36:01This is players year through year later, rounds eight through 10 from the last five years.
36:05So veterans going at the end of this group in ambiguous past catcher rooms.
36:09And I classify a bust as a point or worse below expectation.
36:13A hit is a point or higher above expectation.
36:16And in between that's neutral. We got Chris Goblin, 2025 bust.
36:19Juwan Jennings, 2025. That's actually a neutral season because he scored a bunch of touchdowns.
36:23Michael Pittman, 2025, a neutral season. Probably would have been a hit if Daniel Jones doesn't get hurt.
36:29Tyler Lockett, 2024 mega bust. Curtis Samuel, 2024 mega, mega bust.
36:32Khalil Shakir, 2024, neutral. Bateman, 2023 bust. OBJ, 2023 bust.
36:35Elijah Moore, 2023 bust. MVS, KC, 2022 bust. Devo Samuel, 2021.
36:38One of the bigger hits of all time. Tyler Boyd, 2021 is a neutral season.
36:43Fuller, Miami incomplete. Devontae Parker, 2021 neutral. It's a rough list.
36:46I think Myers has a stronger track record. A lot of these guys, I would say, are more of the Michael Wilson
36:52variety in terms of like, you know, maybe we look back in two years and we go, hey, remember when we drafted Michael Wilson?
37:00You know, Myers has a much more of a track record.
37:03Like he would be more somewhere in the Michael Pittman, Tyler Boyd, brackets bullish.
37:07Tyler Lockett, the year we found out he was washed, brackets bearish category.
37:11But, you know, it's something to note that like typically veterans going in this range in crowded pass catching rooms, not really
37:17like historically great place to value mine. Yeah. Yeah.
37:20When, when Michael Wilson was breaking out last year, the run out definitely didn't necessarily mirror this, but my first thoughts were being an Eagles fan, Travis Fulgham.
37:28Cause that was, that was a wild four week ride that we had there.
37:32That's yeah. I did a mid season startup in the middle of that run.
37:37Um, uh, and like, I remember being like, where did we draft this guy?
37:41Like what do we do with this? Fourth round pick Travis Fulgham.
37:44I'd love to know the answer to that question.
37:47Um, it was, it was high. I wasn't me.
37:50I remember I was talking to my buddy and he went off the board and I was like, man, that was kind of a crazy pick.
37:57My buddy was like, dude, he got a steal.
38:00Like Fulgham's legit. That was like Lynn sanity. When it was happening, people were absolutely losing their minds about.
38:06I'll never, that was the craziest thing of all time.
38:09I can't, there's never been anything like that. Especially at wide receiver.
38:12That never happens. I feel like what I'm running back all the time.
38:16It's like, Oh, like Damian Williams, you know, like whatever.
38:19This guy gets hurt. Guy goes on a one sanity run, but yeah.
38:23Wide receiver. Um, that was nuts. I feel like what I'm hearing is, uh, in redraft draft, draft Trevor Lawrence and draft
38:29like facial toot and Chris Rodriguez and just like leave this mess to somebody else because it's, uh, there are a lot of factors.
38:36There, I think I tend to agree with you and I'm leaning Parker Washington kind of as the front runner of this group.
38:43But when there are so many variables like that, I kind of just want to stay away from it, but I'm still,
38:50you know, obviously we're holding some of these bags and dynasty and like, uh, you know, uh, out of all of these
38:56guys, I think, I think I've got a show of all.
39:00I mean, I think if you want it, like Parker and dynasty is pretty darn affordable.
39:04And I, and I get that, like, there's a reason for that, right?
39:08Brian Thomas jr. Could have a middling season and he could still carry dynasty value because he has a real pedigree.
39:14Sure. You know, Parker's dynasty value is entirely based on his productivity in this coming season.
39:19So if it doesn't happen, he's, he's going to zero real fast.
39:23It's a risky asset. Yeah. I understand that dynamic, but like, I do think that he is a very low cost of
39:29entry for a 24 year old who you wouldn't be that shocked if he just scored like 14 to 15 points per game this year.
39:37You don't, you don't get 24 year olds with that type of projection ever in dynasty.
39:41Um, for me, it's worth the risk. Uh, before, uh, before we move off of the Jags, you know, Fulgham was on
39:48the lions last year, last year, he's still playing years ago, two years ago, 2024.
39:52Cause he was on the lions before the Eagles too.
39:55I think, wasn't he? No, no. So I have him on a, Oh, I meant the BC lines.
40:01Oh, the BC Travis Fulgham was on the BC lions.
40:04Oh, she was on the BC lions two years ago.
40:07Yeah. Canada has a team. Dude. You watch your mouth when you talk about the CFL.
40:11Yeah. Those are fighting words. You don't talk about our shit.
40:15John Gruden will be on your case right now.
40:17I usually get away with these. I need Jack's back in my corner.
40:21I'm looking at his career statistics in the NFL.
40:24It's the funniest outline of all time. 2019 three targets, zero receptions.
40:272020 67 targets, 38 receptions, 539 yards and four touchdowns.
40:30Probably all in the same month. Yeah. 2021 zero targets, zero receptions.
40:34Never played another NFL game. Like for context, as an Eagles fan, that was at a point where we had been starving for a stud receiver post.
40:42That's why I was still a big Wentz believer and he was in a rough that year, but I was a big Wentz truther.
40:49And so when Fulgham started hitting, I was like, finally, like they found Wentz his guy.
40:54Like that was, it was, they had Rager on that team who stunk.
40:58It was post Alshon. They were still relying on J.
41:01Jaw who stunk. It was like the corpse of Zach Ertz was the only guy that could do anything.
41:06Yeah. And that was maybe a 40 year old Jason Avant, maybe a 40 year old.
41:11She was probably on the name. It was post Alshon.
41:14It was like, yeah. I mean, I think their start, I think their receivers were supposed to be Rager and J.J.
41:20Ortega Whiteside. I don't know. That was a crazy year.
41:23Unreal. Unreal. Also shout out to the BC Lions.
41:26Because you mentioned on the long view, when you and Ben were just talking about how sad the Chris Brazel junior injury
41:32was, you mentioned that his dad, Chris Brazel Sr.
41:35played for the Blue Bombers. Also a BC Lions veteran as well.
41:38I want to mention and shout out to you on the correct pronunciation of the name Brazel as well, by the way, Jacob.
41:45Nice. Do you want to guess who led that 2020 Eagles team in receptions?
41:49I looked it up on Pro Football Reference. That's not anyone we've named yet.
41:54But 2022 Eagles. 2020. 2020. This is the Fulgham year.
41:57Yeah, yeah. Fulgham did not lead them in receptions.
41:59He actually wasn't even second. Nelson Aguilar. Was it a running back?
42:03It's a wide receiver. And it wasn't Nelson. I'll put it this way.
42:07It's a wide receiver in the NFL. That's a clue.
42:10In college, you played a different position. Oh, okay.
42:12Oh, shit. I believe he was a Heisman finalist college quarterback.
42:16Why am I? Oh, Terrell Pryor. No. No. What?
42:18He never had the same idea. He was not with the Eagles.
42:22I think he had a training camp with the Eagles at some point.
42:26Maybe. But he did not. He might have had a training camp.
42:29He did not catch 53 passes. That's right. Okay, tell us.
42:32Tight end? No. It's Greg Ward Jr. Oh, my God.
42:35Legend Greg Ward Jr., in fact. Yeah. That's great.
42:38Good pull. Good pull. I would have never gotten that one.
42:41I forgot about his existence. Like, I'm usually pretty good at these.
42:45I would have never. But that name has not crossed my mind since he exited the NFL.
42:50That's an indictment on the wide receiver depth chart in the Eagles at that time and how starved we were for Travis Fulgham.
42:57This is everyone who caught a pass on the year.
43:00Well, I'm not going to name him. This is everyone who caught more than who caught 10 or more passes on that Eagles team.
43:07Greg Ward, Dallas Goddard, Travis Fulgham, Zach Ertz, Jalen Rager, Miles Sanders, Giants Killer, Boston Scott, Dick Rod, Deshaun Jackson, and John Hightower.
43:14Oh, Johnny Hightower. There's a little steam on him when he was coming out for sure.
43:18It was a late rookie draft. Somehow, J.J. Artega-Whiteside had that whole year to establish himself.
43:23He got four passes. He was supposed to be the wide receiver one on that team.
43:28And he was instantly so bad. Just instantly came in so bad.
43:31And yeah, that was a waste of a draft pick for sure.
43:35But I'm going to keep us moving here, boys.
43:38I'm going to keep us moving. Jacob, we're going to move into teams that you didn't cover in the Thinking About Thinking series.
43:44Definitely encourage everyone to go subscribe to Thinking About Thinking.
43:47Make sure you read that series because there's a ton of stuff that even if we got to those teams, we wouldn't have time to dig into.
43:55So highly recommend. And before we get into these other teams, we're going to just take a quick break and check in with some of our sponsors.
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44:28And we are back with Dynasty Underground. Joe and I are, of course, joined by one Jacob Sanderson.
44:33Thanks for sticking around. Make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel and check out the website at otcffb.com.
44:39Talking about some ambiguous wide receiver rooms. We had some fun conversation about some of the teams that Jacob wrote up on
44:45his sub stack, and we're going to get into some of these other ones.
44:49So the first one might be a little bit of a funny bit here, so we maybe don't have to spend too much time.
44:56But the 49ers, Jacob, do they even have a wide receiver depth chart at this point?
45:01Because I think they're about five down, five wide receivers down right now.
45:05Stribbling's back in practice. Is he right on? Stribbling's all the way out.
45:09Yeah, he got back on today. The Stribbler got back on to practice field today.
45:13I think that, I mean, outside of PureSolve, I think everyone will be fine.
45:17Kirk's expected to be back for week one. The Evans sounds precautionary.
45:21Stribbler's back out there today. Debo, I don't think, has gotten hurt yet.
45:25He's only practiced a couple times. I was going to say, he's the one exception that you had talked about previously.
45:31You're running back. Jeff Chard is in absolute tatters.
45:34So, you know, whatever plans, they might have had to knock you.
45:37Christian McCaffrey, 400 touches this year. You can throw those out the window.
45:41He'll once again be getting 400 touches or getting hurt.
45:44One of the two. Yeah, I mean, that is a mess wide receiver room.
45:48I mean, I was pretty into PureSolve, honestly, for much of the offseason.
45:52So that was unfortunate to see him, like, immediately go down after two practices.
45:56I don't know what to do with this group now.
45:59It's like, it's a lot of uncertainty, but it is probably a very good offense.
46:04I do think, like, historically we've sometimes overvalued the, like, order of receiver opportunities on the 49ers.
46:09Because, unlike, like, this is a team that more than any other team in the NFL is going to have a higher
46:15running back and tight end target share, probably. You know, Kittle's going to be one of the best tight ends in the NFL, I assume.
46:23We'll see, I guess, off the Achilles. But he's still being drafted as a top seven tight end.
46:28And then McCaffrey has a role that is unlike any other running back in the league.
46:33So when you're thinking about the wide receiver targets available, you always have to shrink the pie on the 49ers because there's
46:39so many targets going to non-wide receivers. Mike Evans, you know, I think he's the clear wide receiver one.
46:45Like, he's, like, one of my favorite types of players to buy in Dynasty, which is a player who basically you only
46:51need them to perform well this year to pay off.
46:54To me, it's like you're buying property with the mortgage 95% of the way paid off.
46:59It's like you, there's, people think of a guy like Mike Evans as risky.
47:03It's actually not risky. His odds of failure are reasonably high, right?
47:07Like, he could just show up and be washed at any minute.
47:10But he's actually not that risky because you don't have to pay that much.
47:15So all you're basically paying for is him to be a wide receiver two this year.
47:19And if he is, anything after that is literally free based on sort of what you're paying to acquire a guy like that.
47:26And if he's not, it's not like you're out that much in terms of the cost to go get him.
47:32You're probably getting him for, like, a mid-second. So I actually, I think that the riskier assets are the players that are,
47:39like, 27, 28, where it's like, it could go at any minute.
47:42But you're paying the price of probably getting another three, four, five productive years.
47:46Once you get to, like, the Mike Evans, Derrick Henry age range, where the price is completely factoring in the fact that
47:53you're basically paying for one more season of premier production.
47:56I love that. You know, because typically you're just kind of playing it as a year-to-year bet.
48:01So I'm in on Evans for Dynasty, especially. Yeah, Stribbling Debo, I don't know.
48:05We'll see. Stribbling was not my kind of prospect, but, like, he's a rookie and there's going to be opportunity there.
48:11I think Debo can probably provide flex value early in the season.
48:15We'll see if he can sustain that. He's an interesting player in that I think he's, like, really, really washed as an actual receiver.
48:22Agreed. If you're going to play him, you kind of need to get him the ball because what else is he going to do?
48:29You're going to ask him to run a clear-out route?
48:32Like, he's going to lumber around? Like, absolutely not.
48:35So, I mean, he looked terrible, I thought, last year.
48:38But he still had 23% targets for a run, 1.66 yards per run.
48:41And part of that is, like, similar, I think, to what we saw with Keenan Allen last year on the Chargers.
48:48It's like, I wouldn't bring a guy like this onto my team, probably.
48:51I mean, I think if you're the 49ers, I guess you had to because what else were you going to do?
48:58Play DeMarcus Robinson. But it can be challenging to bring a player like this on his team because he's going to vacuum up production from other players.
49:06And you have to throw to him because he doesn't open up any space for anyone else.
49:11So, it's like his lack of ability is almost to his benefit in some way.
49:15Yeah. Because, like, Stripling is an interesting Yak player, too.
49:18But you tell me what's a better NFL offensive plan.
49:21Stripling runs the deep route to clear the defense and Debo catches a little dragger underneath?
49:26Or Stripling runs a little dragger underneath and Debo runs the clear route?
49:30Like, the harder thing to do physically is probably the thing that doesn't get you fantasy points.
49:35And that's probably, unfortunately, what they're going to ask the 4-3-6 running guy versus, like, I don't know if Debo could run a 4-8 right now.
49:42So, it's... And, like, Debo's still kind of okay at that stuff.
49:46Like, if he doesn't have to run a real route and he just has to, like, get in the open field and,
49:53like, break a couple tackles, he can kind of still muddle his way through.
49:57He can't separate from anybody at this point in his career.
50:00I'm viewing him as kind of like the RB2 right now.
50:03He's, like, the most likely to me to get touches and give McCaffrey a break this year than anything.
50:09And that's kind of what the play is. And with Shanahan, like, he's going to scheme him some stuff and there's going to be some Debo games.
50:17But, oh, my God, that's a super scary asset.
50:19Couldn't agree more on the Mike Evans take. Like, we've been kind of comparing him to, like, the Devontae Adams bet last year.
50:26And to your point, like, love those late career cheap.
50:29You know exactly what you're paying for them and you know exactly what you're hoping for.
50:34And you know exactly when it's over type of bets.
50:37Even in Dynasty, like, second round pick for a year production on a competing team.
50:41Yes, give me. Yeah. Yeah, I dig it. Moving over the Buccaneers, Jacob, I think this is an important one because if
50:48you get it right, this has been a factory of wide receiver production over the last few years.
50:53Almost, like, in the vein of how we used to talk about the Steelers, the way they're pumping these guys out.
51:00And they have a pretty good crop this year.
51:02They got Godwin. They draft all the guys I like every year.
51:06Even their late round guys. Even some of the guys that haven't turned out.
51:10It's like, this is, like, the most. Tez? It's the most, like, analytics-pilled front office, at least a wide receiver drafting.
51:16I mean, hey, other NFL front offices. Like, just to let you know, like, maybe it's good to just draft the really productive receivers every year.
51:24The Bucs seem to hit on a lot of them.
51:27You know, it's just something to think about. But they've taken, I mean, a Bucca, obviously, round one pick.
51:32But, like, you go back to, like, Godwin was, like, a massive analytics darling prospect when he came out and he was a third-round guy.
51:40And then all these guys recently. I mean, McMillan's the only one that's really amounted to anything.
51:45But, like, even a lot of the bets that they've taken that didn't work, I thought were legitimately interesting.
51:50Like, Justin Watson. I mean, Tez Johnson contributed last year.
51:53Even Cameron Johnston. Cameron Johnston, I think, they had another guy last year.
51:57They took my goat, Jalen Darden, who was nothing.
52:00But he was, like, a very fun analytical darling.
52:03They took Trey Palmer, who was a guy that I kind of like.
52:06Every year, Ted Hurst this year is another guy that I like.
52:10Basically, every year, they seem to just, like, they get into day three.
52:14They sort by receiving yards per team pass attempt.
52:17And they just take the highest guy left on the list.
52:20And, like, you could do worse. You know? Yeah, 100%.
52:23100%. Yeah, they've gotten lots out of those guys.
52:25Like, McMillan, as a rookie with eight touchdowns. I love me some McMillan.
52:29I did hear he got a little bit banged up with a knee.
52:33And he's out for an indetermined amount of time, I believe.
52:36He's fine. He blows his knee. And he was out on the field smiling.
52:41Todd Bowles is a troll, dude. It's the same guy who said, yeah, Bucky's going to be back sometime in the summer or fall.
52:48Yeah, or fall not. He's an old participant from immediately in training camp.
52:52He's running every drill. Get out of here, Todd Bowles.
52:55Like, yeah, I woke up this morning to see Jalen McMillan knee no timetable for return.
52:59I'm like, oh, I guess he tore his ACL.
53:02And then, like, I see him smiling around at practice, like, with a bruised knee.
53:06They're like, he's going to miss a couple days.
53:09All right, Todd. I think he was, like, supporting some drills out there.
53:13So he's out there patting his guys on the back as they're doing drills or some shit.
53:18He's fine. He's completely fine. It's ridiculous. So where's this, like, how high is the ceiling for Ibuka this year, knowing that,
53:24you know, Baker has had some chemistry with Chris Godwin.
53:27Chris Godwin has played the versatile role in this offense, much like we expect Ibuka to.
53:32How do you think those two guys coexist? And then maybe we'll talk about how the other guys pepper in.
53:38Well, the ceiling is really high. I've been, I've struggled with Ibuka's cost this offseason.
53:43I think it's a bit too optimistic, but the ceiling is legitimately high.
53:46He's a terrifying player to be underweight on. He was a prospect I liked.
53:51I think there's a bit of revisionist history going on about how good of a prospect he was.
53:56Like, there's been a lot of, like, this is the next JSN comps.
54:00No one was calling him JSN's prospect. He was, you know, like, as a prospect, it was, like, he was very clearly
54:06behind, at least for the vast majority of analysts.
54:09Totally different tier than Tedron McMillan. A different tier than, like, Travis Hunter, if he was a wide receiver only.
54:15I had him three. But, like, a lot of people pre-draft had Burden ahead, and a lot of people had Golden ahead.
54:21And so I think that there's been a little bit of, like, retroactive blue chipping with him.
54:26His production profile is strong. Especially given the teammate competition.
54:29But, like, this was a four-year player who never popped with a massive season.
54:33He was consistently kind of beaten out by other better prospects.
54:37One of whom is Marvin Harrison, who may not be that good.
54:40So, I'm not, like... Anyway, then you get the rookie season.
54:44Weird rookie season. Where he starts red hot. He starts red hot on, like, so-so volume.
54:48He's just, like, running. Absolutely sun running the yards per target.
54:52Middle of the season, he starts getting a gazillion targets.
54:55That's not that shocking. You usually see in rookie seasons.
54:57If you post strong post-target efficiency, the volume tends to follow.
55:01As soon as he gets all that volume, the per-target efficiency gets throttled.
55:05And then, late season, he's dealing with this hamstring injury.
55:08Evans is back from injury. Goblin's back from injury.
55:10McMillan's back from injury. And he was basically the wide receiver four for the last couple of weeks.
55:16I know this because he was on my Best Ball Mania finals team doing nothing.
55:20He was running wind sprints out there and having a breather on the sideline for General McMillan.
55:25I was losing my mind. So, all in all, rookie season comes out, like, pretty positively.
55:30Run a bunch of routes. Had a 1.75 yards per outrun.
55:33I just think that, like, in a vacuum, his prospect profile, his rookie season, that's kind of a round five, round six redraft profile for me.
55:41It's kind of like a base first to late first dynasty profile for me.
55:45That's not how he's valued. He's valued as, like, a 1.25 to one and a half first dynasty player.
55:51He's going in the middle of the third round in redraft.
55:54And I think a lot of that is situational where people see him as the clear number one in an offense that
56:00people have a lot of optimism about. And that matters, obviously.
56:04And I think that a lot of it is kind of the primacy effect where people remember him getting off to this really hot start.
56:11And I think people view that pretty optimistically. So, I struggle with it because I think it's one that, like, I could
56:18very easily see him being an absolute smash this year.
56:20And me feeling like, you know, like, was I being too cute by being like, no, like, this guy's slightly overpriced.
56:27Even though I do think in a vacuum, it's a pretty good bet.
56:31But then it's like, I also get to the point of in redraft especially, I'm looking at it and I'm like, well, he might be an interesting bet.
56:39But I do think there are slightly better bets going around him and even bets going after him.
56:44And so, like, so anyway, I've been a little low on Ibuka.
56:48But I guess my issue with it is I don't feel like I have another alternative pathway to play it.
56:54Because it's not like I'm out on Ibuka as in he sucks.
56:57Like, I do think he's going to be the clear one.
57:00I do think he is kind of the way I'd want to play this team.
57:05I've been taking some Godwin. I'm a little nervous.
57:08Like, we got an older receiver that's coming off of a declining efficiency injury riddled year.
57:12Like, typically, the way we see receiver aging curves, and we just talked about this with Mike Evans.
57:18Like, it's the old Adam Harstad black marble theory.
57:20If you aggregate every wide receiver's career age-wise, it looks like this.
57:24For audio listeners, I'm doing kind of like a gradual mountain.
57:27But if you look at, like, the individuals, it's usually stable, stable, stable, stable, dead.
57:32Stable, stable, stable, stable, dead. It's just for some guys, the dead happens at 28.
57:36And some it happens at 35. And some it happens at 31.
57:40And so, you aggregate it all together. It looks more gradual.
57:43Most of the time, when it goes, it goes.
57:46And it doesn't often come back. And so, I typically bet against these rebound profiles of older receivers.
57:51I haven't hit on that every single time. I'd say I've hit on it more than not.
57:56I do think that a lot of the bearishness is being priced in on Godwin because there's so much excitement about Ibuka.
58:02I think about, like, some of the guys I faded really heavily that I think had similar profiles to Godwin.
58:08Tyree Kill last year was going, like, round two.
58:11Cooper Kopp, a couple of years ago, was going round two, round three.
58:15Alan Robinson, when he was on the Rams, he was going in the third round.
58:19They're giving you a big discount on Godwin in the eighth.
58:23The ADP doesn't even consider the possibility he could just be the one over Ibuka.
58:27So, I think you can mix him in. But I don't love it.
58:31It doesn't feel great. And then McMillan is interesting.
58:34I think he's fine. I think he's, like, a good NFL player.
58:37I don't know how high the ceiling is there.
58:40Maybe if Godwin's totally washed, it gets there. I think he's, like, an interesting route space play in best ball.
58:46I don't know how much I want to play him in a managed league.
58:50But I don't think he's bad. I think I was too harsh on him earlier in the offseason.
58:55And I've had some people kind of show me some of the splits from his 2024 season.
59:00Like, his overall yards per run that season was bad.
59:03It was 1.22. But he didn't play much in the early season.
59:07My recollection was more like he just kind of touched down, spiked it, like John Dotson.
59:11But he actually did earn volume at a pretty reasonable rate in the late season.
59:16Followed that up. I mean, last year, he literally barely played.
59:19He only ran 83 routes. But for what it's worth, on those 83 routes, he was mega efficient.
59:25So, yeah, I think he's probably a pretty good player.
59:27Yeah, yeah. I think he's always been kind of an injury away, right?
59:31And I think that was a part of his late season surge as a rookie was that there were injuries in front
59:38of him on the depth chart with Evans and Godwin as well.
59:41So, important to note for McMillan. But a guy that's, you know, I think that Ibuka hype has potentially suppressed his value a bunch too.
59:49Not that it was super high, but I think you can get him pretty cheap.
59:53And if he is, you know, if he catches an injury, that's a wide receiver too on a high powered offense.
60:00Yeah. He was a guy I thought was a really undervalued prospect.
60:03I thought he was, I mean, this is the easiest thing in the world to say in hindsight.
60:08But like, you can find my post from 2024 saying like, I don't understand why this guy is going behind Polk, like of the Washington receivers.
60:16I think this guy is clearly at least the second best.
60:19Um, I thought he was a legitimately strong prospect, like early breakout guy with elite target competition in Rome.
60:25And, and I mean, say what you want to a Polk, but it was a good called receiver in college.
60:31Yeah. So I think, I think he was an undervalued guy.
60:34Great pick by the box. And I don't know how much it matters for fantasy, but he's in.
60:40You're, you're preaching the choir over here. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Ibuka was number one, the number one receiver in our wide receiver model.
60:48And we were telling anybody who would listen, you need to be trading back to like the one Oh seven, one Oh eight, one Oh nine range.
60:56And just firing on Ibuka and burden repeatedly in that range.
60:59That's kind of like, uh, that was our sort of siren song of the 2025, uh, rookie draft season.
61:04Yeah. Yeah. Check out the OTC score. Shout out the next one guys.
61:08Okay. So this one's not really that ambiguous, but I kind of want to see your confidence levels in Malik neighbors, Jacob,
61:15because I think for dynasty, for me, he's a top three wide receiver.
61:19I have him inside my top 10 for 2026 thinking that he's only going to ramp up to get more healthy rolling up to the season.
61:26So of course, very into Malik neighbors. We call this a Malik neighbors household, Jacob.
61:31Um, what's your confidence levels and what do you think ceiling can be even coming back?
61:36I mean, I, I don't know. This is like, I mean, we just did this show, uh, that the Ben and I
61:42did, I don't know which one's going to come out sooner, but probably around the same time.
61:47The, the episode that I just recorded today, the long view, we, we drafted players whose end of season stats we would
61:54most want to see to inform how we did 2026 drafts.
61:57And Malik neighbors is one of my first picks because, um, you know, if there's a lot of stuff that we struggle
62:03to predict as fantasy analysts, but the one thing I feel is like completely out of my hands is, is injury stuff.
62:10Like, I don't know. I can tell you how good Malik neighbors is.
62:14I'd be happy. We could do like half an hour on, on Malik neighbors is so awesome.
62:19Uh, you know, he was my favorite receiver in the class, uh, coming out.
62:23Um, I, I thought like he was a spot where I was like, no, we should be trading up to go get him.
62:30You should consider trading back to go get him.
62:32I love Malik neighbors. I think he would be the unanimous super flex dynasty one Oh one right now.
62:38If he never got hurt, like, I don't think you would find if he didn't get hurt last year, it would be
62:45a hot take that would get you canceled on the internet.
62:48If you said Malik neighbors, wasn't the one-on-one in dynasty.
62:51I think he would have been a top two or three wide receiver last year.
62:55The only guy in that age group, he'd be like a tier ahead of Jamar chase and, uh, and Puka and land
63:02or, and, uh, JS and I think in dynasty, given his age, the season, I think he would have been coming off of.
63:09You see almost plus meniscus is awful. Like I don't like betting into that multi-ligament tears post your one rates are pretty rough.
63:15Um, I'm also kind of a believer that when a guy is that superhuman that he can defy the odds level of
63:22confidence, like level of confidence is like a zero, but like by level of confidence that he'll bust would also be a
63:28zero, like, how am I going to be confident on something that is like, I don't, I don't, it's like how a
63:35knee that I haven't seen will react to the surgery that I wasn't a part of.
63:40Like, I don't know. Um, I'll put it this way.
63:43Like I would not want my redraft season being defined by guessing about Malik neighbors knee.
63:47So I think I have other advantages in this sport.
63:50I'm not going to take zero and I'm not going to take like 30%.
63:55I think I would rather let my season be defined by things that I feel like I have more control over and
64:01have more of an edge over than predicting knee injuries.
64:04Um, but I hope that you're right because the, the sport of football is way more fun when Malik neighbors is healthy and is balling.
64:11And, um, in dynasty, like, yeah, go ahead and buy a dynasty.
64:15I I'm like the fact that he's back doing this.
64:18I don't know exactly how 2026 is going to go.
64:21I'm way more optimistic now than I was a month ago.
64:24Um, I'm at least comfortable. Like this is not like an Odell Beckham career ending, you know, or career changing injury.
64:30Um, he's, he's hopefully going to be a okay, at least for 2027 and, and hopefully we'll be able to give you a lot in 2026.
64:38Yeah. The thing that I find comfort in is like when you watch the videos of him out there, just the angles
64:45that he's taking these cuts on this, you know, recovering knee just looks like normal Malik neighbor.
64:50So I kind of feel like this guy's just one of those freaks that you just continue to bet on.
64:56Uh, I infamously last year, you know, said the game before he got hurt.
65:00I said, he's maybe the only dynasty asset I would consider trading for first for.
65:04And then he immediately tears his ACL the next game.
65:07Um, so I'm going to keep my mouth shut on my optimism about Malik neighbors moving forward.
65:12But, uh, I think he's one of those freaks that I'm going to keep betting on.
65:17Yeah. And he's so young too. Like you think about like, I got, I got a bunch of kids, right?
65:23So you think about like babies and how resilient they are and how they're like bones are like rubber.
65:28You know, I watched my nephew fall backwards off of like this probably two foot little drop and hit the back of
65:35his head off of like a desk or something.
65:38He gets up with a big smile on his face.
65:41Like, I think there's probably a little element of that, that he's so young.
65:45Whereas if he has this injury at 32, it's probably not happening for him.
65:49So we still stand Malik neighbors in this household, ladies and gentlemen.
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66:17Let's talk about maybe not necessarily the most fruitful room, but one where there's a couple of prospects that we like in the Cleveland Browns.
66:25There's also a tight end prospect, Jacob, that I know that you liked as well.
66:29We were a big fan of Harold Fannin as well.
66:32So this wide receiver room is hard to figure out.
66:35And it also might be attached to a complete dog shit of a quarterback situation.
66:40Now I'm in camp that they're going to give Deshaun Watson every shot they possibly can.
66:44Uh, to just to get a little bit of that cheddar out, right?
66:48Maybe should do, or he does look like he's doing better, but I think they're going to have.
66:54They both suck. I like, I just, I don't care.
66:57I like, I, I mean, you want to talk about things like, I mean, if I, if I happen to have multiple
67:03Cleveland Browns on my team and I happen to also need a third quarterback, I have taken Shadur in the 18th round
67:10a couple of times just because like, I, it would not completely stun me if Shadur started in week one and then got to start the whole season.
67:18If even if Deshaun starts in week one, it would utterly shock me if he held the job for the whole season.
67:24Like at some point another, they're going to start the younger guy.
67:28I mean, I would hope that like, like I'm not some Shadur Sanders guy.
67:32Like don't put me, don't tell the newspaper that I'm a Shadur Sanders guy.
67:36You just had your wrist way up. But like, I mean, like, doesn't Ty go to the year two quarterback over the like serial rapist?
67:44Like, and not when you're paying them that much money.
67:47And to be clear, I didn't say he would make the most of that shot, but I just think they're going to
67:53be trying to wring whatever juice they can out of that deal.
67:57I just, well, I don't understand. Like, how do you, how did we take the actions necessary to where it has to be between McLovin and Muhammad?
68:05You know, it's like, why is, why is this the situation we're in?
68:09That's great. That's great. Somewhere along the line, like something else could have been done.
68:13Why are we starting Shadur Sanders or Deshaun Watson?
68:16Like you just drafted all these, you just drafted these two top 40 weapons.
68:20You have a massive hit on Harold fan. And you, you're starting a new, um, first round tackle.
68:25Like, just like, wouldn't it be better to evaluate all of these new young players with like, I get, you can't probably
68:32have a good quarterback, but like, wouldn't you rather have like Andy Dalton just like, just like Kirk cousins, just like, wouldn't
68:38you rather have like a professional quarterback who will like drop back and like throw to the read that he's supposed to
68:45and like play like kind of on time and play bad, but like, you can at least like run your offense and
68:51you can see what all the players are going to be.
68:54It just really bought. It really bothers me that.
68:57Yeah. It just, it really bothers me that like, we have these three top 40 picks that we're trying to develop, but
69:04like, they have to play like backyard bullshit ball with like two of the most like anti timing, anti structure, anti scheme quarterbacks in the NFL.
69:11Like, it's like every third play with these guys is like, take the snap.
69:16Oh, I can't see the field. Oh, I'm going to run around.
69:19Oh, I'm going to throw it up in the traffic.
69:22It's like, it's just not conducive to developing other players.
69:25It deeply aggravates me. I don't understand what's happening with this.
69:28I really like, I really like the players that they drafted.
69:32And I think that when they get Arch Manning or CJ Carr, if they haven't completely obliterated the development of all of
69:38their players by subjecting them to this bullshit for 17 games, that they will hopefully take a nice leap in 2027.
69:44But yeah, I thought, I thought that they, yeah, they, they, they took my favorite tackle in the draft.
69:50They took one of my favorite receivers in the draft with Casey.
69:53And like, I wasn't a huge Boston guy in the pre-draft process.
69:57Most of that was because he was consistently projected to go top 25, but I thought they got a great value on
70:04him where they got him in the second round.
70:06I thought he was extremely worthy of that pick and he's been getting rave reviews at camp.
70:11I will caution you. There is a long history of, uh, jump ball receivers looking great at camp.
70:17This is like, like this, this also goes for Jacoby lane.
70:20Oh, don't that's rude. No, I mean, it's great.
70:22It is great. Like if you're like, if you were a Boston guy and I'm like kind of a Boston guy, I'm
70:29not that Boston guy, but like, I'm, I'm certainly, I'm Boston centrist, maybe even a little bit pro like if you're in
70:36on these guys, you obviously want to hear good news.
70:38I'm not, I'm not telling you that, that the good news is bad news.
70:43Um, I do think there's a certain type of receiver that just tends to thrive in training camp.
70:48I'm like Keishon booty. He's like a training camp all-star every single year.
70:52George Pickens every year. Like it's like actually, yeah, well, George Pickens is just good.
70:56Um, but like Brian, remember when Brian Edwards was the talking town and training camp.
71:01That was so funny. That was very good. I just think there's something to be said for like quarterbacks are more willing
71:07to throw it into traffic in training camp than they are into games.
71:11Um, and like defenders probably aren't playing quite as hard.
71:14And also like, you know, in terms of what's going to draw headlines from camp, like it's like guy skies for the
71:21ball and makes big catch between two defenders, 25 yards downfield.
71:24They're not, the beat writers aren't going to write as much about like, you know, Casey Concepcion, like found a soft spot in the zone for eight yards.
71:32Like that just doesn't really draw the same headline.
71:35So I, a word of caution to me when we have like jump ball contested catch thriving receivers, thriving in training camp.
71:41That's kind of what they do. It's kind of what trading camps for.
71:45Uh, but anyways, great, great news for Denzel Boston.
71:48He looks great. Um, I think the key to these guys in dynasty is like, we're now woke in the fantasy community
71:54to, um, to like targets per route run and like, uh, first read target share and first down for all these advanced stats.
72:01Um, and that's what these guys need to do.
72:04They need to farm advanced stats so that when they get a real quarterback, everyone gets to be like, look at how
72:10secretly good Denzel Boston and or Casey Concepcion were last year.
72:14And then they can be the guy who the, the, like the kind of boomers are going into summer.
72:19I'm like, why are we drafting this guy in round five?
72:23Like he didn't actually do anything last year. And you're like, well, actually like, you know, the, the behind the hood, it was pretty good.
72:30He just couldn't do anything because he had to catch passes from a club and a Muhammad.
72:35So it's, it's, uh, that's, that's the goal. I don't know how productive they're going to be for, for fantasy this year.
72:41I I've been drafting a lot of Casey cause he's so fricking cheap.
72:45Like he's like a first round pick with a really good profile that we can strap whenever we want, like the 11th round and Boston's even cheaper.
72:53So, um, I both have low expectations and I'm drafting them all the time.
72:57Yeah. Yeah. Kind of same as well. Go ahead.
73:00It's weird. Our model actually liked Boston more than Concepcion, but when you look at why it's pretty obvious just because of
73:07that sophomore year for Concepcion and that, you know, horrid offense where his quarterback was hurt.
73:11Yeah, he's used to this. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. NC state team, like really prepared him for what he's about to walk into here.
73:18I know. So, but what I'm bringing, the reason I'm bringing it up is cause like I defer to the model when
73:25I'm not sure, but here we have a clear reason why that happened.
73:29And so I'm like completely at a loss here and I've just been taking shots on both of them.
73:34Uh, certainly in dynasty and a little bit in best ball and redraft as well.
73:39Nice. I think, I think for me, because the Browns drafted Boston so high, I think the gap between the two should be pretty close.
73:46And I think honestly, both can kind of succeed in their own way in the future.
73:51Like you said, Jacob. So I would say like by early in the season when they've shit the bed and people who
73:57are holding them, aren't looking towards them getting that new quarterback yet.
74:01You know what I mean? Get them before their manager realizes that they're going to get an arch manning basically is what I'm going to say.
74:09Um, we got one more group here and then we've got a couple of rapid fire before we ride out.
74:15Jacob really appreciate your time. My man, uh, it's been a good show so far and a little bit more to get to here.
74:22Let's talk about the big three. Wookiee, wookie wide receivers, rookie wide receivers.
74:26Um, not on the same team. So there's not like necessarily that element of ambiguity that we've been talking about, but, um,
74:32Cardinal Tate is the guy who I would have first over the other three.
74:36I've been a Tate truther. I do think the fit with Cam Ward can be kind of nice because I think when
74:43you saw Cam Ward needs a guy like Ward who like has balls.
74:47Yeah, totally. Like when you saw Cam Ward play a little bit loose last season, he didn't look terrible, right?
74:52But they just didn't really let him get loose.
74:55And I think Dable's going to be a guy who can do that in Tennessee.
75:00So I'm looking forward to that as far as Tate.
75:03I think his ADP is around 29 as well.
75:05So for me versus the ceiling he could have in year one, that's a bit of a value.
75:11Um, Jacob, what do you kind of think on that with Tate, maybe him as the one and that ceiling I'm talking about?
75:17So I had a really hard time ordering a top three receivers, um, to the point where like, I usually I already
75:24know I'm going to rank them before I do the full write-ups.
75:27Uh, and this time I was like, I'm actually so not sure that I'm just going to write up each of the three of them first.
75:35And then once I'm done, like laying out all of the case, then I'm going to go back.
75:41I'm going to rank them and I'm going to order them.
75:44So I've been toying with it a lot. Pre-draft.
75:46I had it Tyson one lemon to Tate three.
75:49I flipped Tate above lemon. I'm just based on the massive draft capital difference between them.
75:54Um, I finished with Tyson one, but like my advice, I do like a walk through rookie draft column every year where
76:00I kind of say like, here's what I'm actually doing at every pick.
76:04And my advice was like, I do slightly prefer Tyson.
76:07Um, but I, I'm not nearly confident enough about it to the point where I'm, you know, taking Tyson every single time
76:14and having effectively no take is Tate was almost always going out of Tyson.
76:18So basically my approach was if both were on, both were available, I was like kind of taking them alternately.
76:24And then, um, if one of them was available, I was taking whichever one was there.
76:29So that kind of led me to be like pretty solidly overweight Tyson and like very slightly underweight Tate, but I still have shares and I want shares.
76:37Um, I like all these guys. I think that they're honestly a little bit undervalued.
76:41I thought that the, I thought that the like bad publicity on the 2026 rookie class kind of like showered everyone in
76:48shit to a degree to me, it didn't get that bad until we got to like pick, uh, eight or so.
76:54I thought right around there. Yeah. Then it's like, Oh my God, I'm taking, it's like, I'm taking Omar Cooper.
77:00Like what are we doing here? Jonah Coleman, top of the second.
77:03Yeah. Like that's where it was like, what is going on here?
77:07Um, but I thought that the three receivers were, were good.
77:10Uh, like there's no Malik neighbors level prospect, but I thought that they were pretty close to in line with what we
77:17get in a normal, like non-generational prospect year. Tate specifically.
77:20So, um, one of the reasons I was a little bit lower on Tate is just, it's kind of similar to what we're talking about with Brian Thomas.
77:28It's, um, the role that he plays, I think is a little bit more quarterback and offense dependent.
77:33Um, he's a guy who is a legitimate ball winner down the field.
77:37He does not offer a ton of ball in hand ability, or at least he didn't in college.
77:43And he's never been like a target dominator. Now there's a reason for that.
77:47He was playing next to Jeremiah Smith. So obvious, but like, you know, it's hard.
77:51It's, it's one thing for me to say he could have done more of this.
77:56Um, but like, I'd prefer if he just did do more of this and I didn't have to kind of play the hypothetical game.
78:03So I look at Tate and I see like a pure X receiver.
78:07I have a theory that's like untestable, I guess, but I have a theory that T Higgins and well, first of all,
78:13I have a theory that George Pickens did not get that much better last year than he was in Pittsburgh.
78:19I think he was kind of always that guy, um, or at least he was always that guy starting year two.
78:25I thought he actually had a real jump from year one to year two.
78:29I thought the guy he was from year two to year three to year four was mostly the same guy, but being
78:36a guy like George Pickens playing with Kenny Pickett or, um, who is, who, who is his last year?
78:42Mason Rudolph. But then there was another guy that he had Russell Wilson, just playing with these, playing with these goofs and like Arthur Smith was his coordinator.
78:50That's just, that's a tough road to hoe because you don't get gimmies if you're George Pickens.
78:55Like they'd only throw them a lot of screens.
78:58You know, you're not getting these like really easy button routes.
79:01You're having to play on hard mode, playing on hard mode in a suboptimal environment is not very conducive to fantasy production.
79:07Then he gets that. He's like, Frick, I don't know.
79:10Is he, if you're to rank out every quarterback you want for fantasy wide receiver production, he's going in the top three.
79:17Um, it's like him, Stafford Burrow. So, and you see this massive jump and I was all over Pickens last year.
79:23And I, I felt like not only this guy's going to run a bunch more routes, he's going to get a quarterback
79:30who's willing to throw into tight windows and can do it effectively.
79:33And he's going to get some real chances. Higgins, like I think is a baller.
79:38Obviously he's a baller. He's also very fortunate. He's only ever had Joe Burrow as his quarterback.
79:43And like you get a guy who, again, like is willing to throw into tight windows, throw super accurately, trusted to throw at a high volume rate.
79:51I, I don't know what a Roman Dunes day or a Marvin Harrison, for instance, might be capable of if they got to play in Dallas or Cincinnati.
79:59Um, you know, it might be a lot more interesting.
80:02Um, we saw with Brian Thomas Jr. Like, you know, it's hard.
80:05Like there's confounding variables, but like we saw him have a stretch where he looked like God.
80:11And then we saw him have a season where he was unplayable and it's like, maybe he, you know, there's injuries scheme
80:17stuff, but like, it's a volatile profile receiver to be this X receiver.
80:21Um, cam ward is an interesting quarterback fit because he was pretty bad last year.
80:25So, you know, I'd rather him be with Dak, but like, I see similarities in cam ward.
80:30Um, I know I mentioned Lawrence was bad fit for Thomas, so I don't mean them stylistically, but I see like mentality
80:37similarities between cam ward and, uh, Trevor Lawrence's rookie year and Caleb Williams rookie year.
80:41Um, and this is, I mean, it's positively, which is like, there are some rookie quarterbacks who kind of come into the
80:48NFL, um, and who are willing to kind of just like take what is there.
80:52And so they end up having a little bit better rookie season stats.
80:56Cam ward is like, I don't know a better way to say this.
81:00He's just not a loser. Like cam ward is going to play to win.
81:04He's even going to play to win when he has two seven off suit.
81:08Um, and he had a two seven off suit all year last year.
81:12He was throwing a two day, three rookies for the most part, three, I guess Connor Helm do.
81:17I mean, his primary series were three day, three rookies and his coach was fricking Mike McCoy.
81:23So this guy had nothing going on, but he was still going to try like really hard.
81:28He was going to try to throw balls down the field.
81:31He was going to hold the ball for that extra second.
81:34He was going to take risks. Sometimes that led to really nice plays more often than not.
81:39That led to disaster because he was a rookie who had a lot to learn and he had no help ever.
81:45And I'm thinking snowball on him a lot. I still think he's a good quarterback.
81:50I like to see that mentality of, of a guy who's going to do that.
81:54I mean, this is like so anecdotal, but there was a moment in the Colts game where it was like fourth and
82:01one on the Colts side of the field with like under two minutes left.
82:05It's like the most obvious you should go for this imaginable.
82:08And they were down, I think only by like seven at the time they punted.
82:13And sure enough, the Colts scored on that drive.
82:15And then they scored the first drive of the second half.
82:19So by the time they got the ball back, it was like, they went from down seven to down 21.
82:24It's like games over. And Cam Ward was like swearing at Mike McCoy on the sideline, basically being like, you donkey.
82:31What are you doing? I was like, yeah, like you tell him, tell him, Cam Ward.
82:35So I just like his competitiveness. And I think that he is a guy where if he hits and it's a big
82:42if, but if he hits, I think he's going to have the ability to, to throw to Tate in those tight windows.
82:48Like he's going to have the tenacity and the mentality to do it.
82:52So I like the upside of the pairing. The floor is really shaky.
82:56Um, but at least the long-term upside, I think is really exciting.
83:00Joe, anything on these rookie wide receivers you want to chat with Jacob about?
83:04Um, well, I was just going to ask a question about Makai Lemon because we've waxed poetic about him.
83:10He was the guy in the top three that our model liked the best.
83:14And we were just very in on him from the beginning of the off season.
83:18You know, some questions about the landing spot, but we just kept firing on him.
83:23I took him, you know, I was basically trick.
83:25Same thing we did with like Buka last year.
83:28We're doing with Lemon this year. It was like trade back to the 103, trade back to the 104.
83:34If you can, if you think you can't trade back to the 105 and just snag whichever one of them fall.
83:40But more often than not, it ended up being Lemon.
83:43Then I listened to the long view, uh, the last episode and the two of you at the end of the episode
83:49were kind of teasing a little, uh, Makai Lemon take brewing.
83:52So I just wanted to let you do your thing on him.
83:56Yeah, I really like Lemon. Um, he, he was my wide receiver to pre-draft.
84:00So that's like just kind of how I'm viewing them in a vacuum.
84:04I, I, I'm, I will defer to draft capital quite a lot.
84:08So like the chances that I'm ever going to rank a guy who went 20th ahead of a guy who goes fourth,
84:14like for, it need to be a massive difference in those profiles.
84:18And I don't think that there was. So he, he slotted in as my three.
84:22Um, I like his profile pun. Um, he is the guy that I thought had the most complete profile of the three.
84:29He's a guy that can win downfield. He's a guy that can win after the catch.
84:33He's a guy that does separate. He wins targets, all debts.
84:37Um, the only reason I didn't have him first is I haven't seen like the elite trait as much from him.
84:43And I haven't seen the like unbelievable ceiling production that we got out of Jordan Tyson, where he like Jordan has like
84:49a career targets for around about 30. This is a guy that's just earned volume constantly.
84:54And that's what I like to see out of receivers, but I really like Lemon.
84:59I hate this landing spot. Um, I mean, I like it for Travis, like, uh, emotional state, you know, I think you
85:05guys got to be a player at 20, but like AJ Brown for sure.
85:09I didn't like it. It's a, it's a, it's a shit spot for fantasy in, in, in, in a number of respects,
85:16you know, it's like, uh, John hurts historically does not throw over the middle whole lot.
85:21That's kind of like what I loved about Lemon is he has this really fantasy friendly profile where he can just come
85:27into a, an offense and get spammed targets in the splash zone repeatedly.
85:31John doesn't like throwing to that. Um, he's in this awkward spot in the offense.
85:35So the way they've constructed this, I'm interested to see how it turns out.
85:39I mean, it seems like how it's going to turn out in 2026 is that Eli Stowers is going to like have
85:46fun in the press box based on what I'm reading.
85:49Um, but how they're going to do this in the future, like, what is the plan here?
85:54Um, is the plan to be a base 12 team with Stowers in the slot and Lemon outside?
85:59Cause I think Lemon can play outside, but like what I would like to do.
86:04Like to see for Lemon is plays in the slot and three receiver sets.
86:08And he plays outside and two receiver sets and the team plays predominantly 11 personnel.
86:12So he can be in the slot a lot.
86:15Um, no, we call that maybe, maybe the Stowers pick, maybe the Stowers pick is just an air ball.
86:21Like I have no idea, but I don't think Stowers can ever play inline tight end.
86:25So I don't really know. Agreed. What the, I don't know.
86:29I don't know what the plan is. Those, those two picks together didn't make a lot of sense to me.
86:35Maybe the idea is we're just going to draft two good football players.
86:38We're going to figure it out. Fair enough. That's not, that's not the worst strategy in the world.
86:44The fit is just awkward. The fits awkward with hurts.
86:47The fits awkward with Stowers. Um, and then the, the fit is great for the Eagles.
86:52It's bad for fantasy in that. Like I think Devonta Smith is a total baller.
86:56Um, and for as long as John hurts is the quarterback, they're probably going to be a bottom 10 pass volume offense.
87:02Um, because he, he's going to run a lot himself.
87:05They're going to hand the ball off a lot.
87:08And I think hurts has some limitations. So it's just a tough spot for fantasy.
87:13All that being said, I think he's pretty much on the level of the other two rookie receivers.
87:18And in like underdog, there's not that much of a discount, but if you get into home leagues, you get into FFPC leagues.
87:25Um, he's going like three, four rounds after the other guys.
87:28And I'm willing to just say like, yeah, this situation has problems.
87:32Um, but I'm going to bet on the talent that I really believe in.
87:36And so I'm willing to get a huge bag of this guy.
87:39So I like lemon a lot. I get the concerns of the fit.
87:43I think they're more than priced in. I'm, I'm very in and all formats.
87:47Yeah. I think it's interesting too, because like we, I think that with Sean Mannion probably does come a little bit of
87:54an increase in pass volume, but I think people don't give enough credit to how much that run volume is attributed to Nick Sirianni being the head coach.
88:02Right. So I don't think his fingers are going to be fully off of this offense, despite I have some optimism for Sean Mannion.
88:09So I think when you talk about on underdog, like high lemons going at like the back of the sixth round on underdog right now.
88:17And I think that is a massive bet on Sean Mannion, who is a very, very unknown commodity for me.
88:22I'm hopeful. I'm an Eagles fan. Like, don't get me wrong.
88:26But I think that him and Devante Smith probably do a lot of the similar things where I've said that I think
88:32when we talk about those X receivers who are better for real football, they're going to eat up a bunch of snaps.
88:39I think Dontavian Wicks is going to have a massive impact on Makai Lemon snap share for 2026 to the point where
88:45I think those people drafting him in the sixth round on underdog are going to be disappointed.
88:50But I think it's probably going to cause a nice little buy opportunity after this season on a super high talent that's
88:57going to get discounted because maybe the stink of the offense or the stink of his role in the offense this season.
89:03Yeah, I didn't even bring up Wicks because I don't think he's a massive dynasty roadblock, but I definitely think for 2026, I like Wicks.
89:11I've always liked Wicks. I think he can legitimately play.
89:14He's drawn rave reviews at camp. And he is, he's like the most, well, I wouldn't say he's the best X receiver
89:20on the team, but I would say the best alignment of this team will include Wicks at X, Smith at Z, and Lemon at F.
89:28And then this is like, I think I'm torn between, I don't want to like overthink certain things into the minutia because
89:34I do think you want to zoom out on the talent-based stuff.
89:38But I think it's like one of those things that goes under the radar when you ask, why isn't this rookie playing more snaps?
89:45So Lemon's ideal role in the NFL is like I said, where he's like playing Z in two receiver sets.
89:51He's playing Y and he's playing F in three receiver sets.
89:54If that's like what he would need, what would need to happen essentially this year to get him into two receiver sets
90:01is unfortunately a little bit awkward because I think Wicks is going to play X in 11.
90:06So then what would need to happen in 12 is that Smith probably needs to shift to play X and then Lemon needs to play Z.
90:13So that now means that two different starters have to get cross-trained.
90:17So Smith, that's fine. I think he can, he's like a vet.
90:20He can probably play whatever. Lemon's now missing time in practice with a hamstring.
90:25So now you're saying like we have a rookie who's currently hurt and he's got to learn two positions in the offense.
90:31Like that's a tough ask. It's legitimately tough ask.
90:34So I think base expectation is he only plays in three receiver sets until the bye week.
90:39Maybe. Well, when is there bye week? I don't know.
90:42Maybe if it's like really late, then maybe that I'm to over.
90:45I think it's in like the eight or nine area.
90:48Yeah. Yeah. So I could, I could easily see a world where for the first half of the season, he's playing three receiver sets only.
90:56And then like, if he really pops and if Wix is not adding that much, then maybe they reshuffle things.
91:02But like, you know, if, if Wix is playing well enough, does the team care so much about our fantasy teams that
91:08they're going to be like, no, actually we would like to have multiple of our starting receivers have to cross train two
91:15positions to reorient everything for the 30% of past plays.
91:18We're in two receivers set so that we can get lemon on the field.
91:22Like if lemon is so great, they will do it and it'll be worth it.
91:26But that, that gap needs to be pretty large because otherwise the offensive flow makes more sense to just let Wix ride it out at X.
91:34Yeah. It feels analogous to the Olamide Zaccheaus, Luther Burden stuff last year.
91:38Obviously that was the, you know, the third wide receiver as opposed to the second wide receiver.
91:43But I think that's kind of what we're dealing with where it's probably going to be the late season increase in usage
91:49to your, I think both of your points. And I think the, the thing about lemon and Smith both being in two
91:56wide sets is that when they want to run, they're pretty small out there.
92:00If they have lemon and Smith, what are we trying to, what are we trying to do here?
92:05I mean, this would be if they end up running, I don't even think Starr was gonna be tight then too this
92:12year, but let's say he eventually is. A 12 personnel with Smith, lemon and Sowers is like the fun, is the funniest heavy personnel grouping of all time.
92:20It's the lightest heavy. It's like, it's like, it's like, what, what exactly are we trying to accomplish with this?
92:26I think it's like Starr was, oh, oh, don't you, but you better watch out for our insert block with our twink
92:33ass tight end and our 260 pound receivers. Like what are what, like, okay.
92:37I like, I've never seen anything less threatening. So I don't know what, I don't know what that is all about.
92:43There's a case that lemon's a better blocker than Starr's.
92:46The last construction that they've done, there's a case you're a better blocker than Starr.
92:50I don't know if I should be laughing at this.
92:53It's kind of, I get a lot of, I like the Starr stuff is so tough because I, I think he's legitimately
93:00really talented, um, receiving tight end, but a lot of the people that I podcast with, uh, make fun of me.
93:06Cause I always bring up run blocking for, for tight ends and, and they think that I focus on it too much,
93:13but like you have to, it's like this dude, I get that there are, there are a lot of tight ends out
93:19there who are bad at run blocking. I don't know another guy who's this bad or I'm like, he's so bad at
93:26run blocking that in the year that he won the Mackie award, he was 255th in college and run block snaps.
93:32So like most of these guys like Fannin, for instance, was an undersized tight end, but he played full time.
93:38Why tight end at Bowling Green? Now I get it.
93:41That's Bowling Green. They let him at least do it.
93:44He wasn't like always that good at it, but they were like, go do it.
93:48And I'm like, we know you're going to miss some blocks, but like, we'll live with it.
93:53Cause you're awesome. At Vanderbilt, they were like no fucking chance for letting you on the field, what we call run place.
94:00Like we'll, we'll put you out there to pass.
94:02But like he was never, he was not even on the field in college.
94:07So I'm like how I just, I struggle with Stowers.
94:10Um, like all of the problems that I brought up for lemon are bigger problems for Stowers.
94:15I think lemon is better than Stowers. So to me, it's like, if, if they decide that they need to play their
94:2120th overall pick stud receiver in the slot, then they're going to do that.
94:25And if that means Eli Stowers doesn't get to play, then Eli Stowers doesn't get to play.
94:30Like, that's kind of my view on things. It's like the last thing it makes sense to do unless Stowers proves himself
94:37to actually be better than lemon, but like if these two guys played at their respective medians, it would be bizarro world
94:43team building to be like, we're going to take our first round pick out of his natural position so that we can
94:50play a collective 340 pounds of wide receivers in 12 personnel so that we can find snaps for our second round pick
94:56because he can't block a dandy line. Like that just doesn't compute to me.
95:01I don't think that's how NFL teams operate, but I don't understand what they were doing draft was I I'm guessing this
95:07was like a Howie Roseman, like kind of an analytics ish pill thing where he was like, we're just going to draft the best players.
95:14We're going to figure it out. That's the only thing that they like collectively this offense is, is funky.
95:20It's like really talented, but it's really weird how the pieces fit together.
95:24And the way that I think the pieces fit best together is if Don Thavian Wicks plays a lot.
95:30Yeah. Yeah. Nice rap there. That was a beautiful little kind of bring back.
95:34I like that. Yeah. That conversation made me like sad and happy and I laughed.
95:38And so thank you for that little ride boys as we talked about my team there.
95:43Okay. So we're going to go into Jacob. I just want to caveat this by saying that this show has never had
95:49a rapid fire conversation be actually rapid. So I don't want you to feel tired, tied to the word rapid as I
95:56throw these ones at you, but this is kind of a rapid fire finish up for us on this one, if you will.
96:03So yeah, we're just going to go through some of these, you know, you mentioned a couple teams that maybe didn't have a bunch of upside earlier.
96:11And so I figured it'd be fun to talk about those teams, but we shouldn't spend too much time on them.
96:17So if there was a gun to your head, which Raiders wide receiver do you want on your rosters?
96:23I can't say Brock Bowers. No. Is this a dynasty or for 2026?
96:26I mean, it doesn't matter actually. It doesn't matter in dynasty.
96:30It's a 2026. Okay. I mean like, fuck Trey Tucker.
96:33I don't know. Yeah. Yeah. That's why we made the Raiders a rapid fire.
96:37Sorry, Joe. Joe is actually a Raiders fan, Jacob.
96:40So your answer is that matters. The answer is ours.
96:42Okay. But I want to know. Oh, it's Tucker.
96:45Yeah. It's Tucker. And it's, it's basically Tucker one, because I've seen it in two.
96:50He had like such a bad, you know, he was running wind sprints in his rookie year.
96:55Then last year, you actually saw a pretty significant into a uptick in his targets, but then he did hit us with a few big games.
97:02Right. So he's kind of good. This is, this is a total meathead take.
97:06Like I've seen him actually be good. He's fast.
97:09You know, they can't throw it to Brock Bowers, you know, and Michael Mayer every single play.
97:14So I'm just going to go with the guy.
97:17I know I don't have anything in any of them at all from a dynasty standpoint, like long-term and any production they
97:23get this year is just like looking. For sale opportunities to, you know, acquire future draft capital.
97:28Like when I picture the Clint Kubiak offense with this personnel group, like I'm picturing like one play.
97:34I'm picturing play action bootleg. And we're going to go sail.
97:37And we're going to have like one guy run down the field.
97:41We're going to have one guy run like a 15 yard crosser.
97:44We're going to have one guy leak out. And it's like, I'm picturing Tucker's running deep, picturing Bowers on the crosser.
97:50I'm picturing Mayer on the leak. Like that's just kind of like how I'm envisioning a lot of this offense to flow.
97:57And yeah, I think Tucker's the guy that is like going to be the most effective at opening up the space.
98:03I think he's going to run the most routes.
98:06I would say Tucker. Best ball only though. Like what are we doing here?
98:10Yeah. Yeah. Amen to that. Amen to that. I mean, this one's not going to be any better then, but I just
98:16kind of thought that there might be some comedy.
98:19I saw this on the show sheet and I like, I wanted to throw up.
98:24Yeah. Yeah. I knew that when I put it down, I knew that when I put it down.
98:29So that's why I did a gun to your head, pick a dolphins wide receiver.
98:33Um, I'd liked a little bit of Malik Washington coming out.
98:37I'll say that, but that's, I mean, Malik Washington is probably like, I, I guess the single most likely player to like
98:43be the highest scoring dolphin do anything. I just can't possibly envision a world where that matters because like Malik Washington failed
98:50to matter with Tua and Tua is kind of the ideal quarterback for Malik Washington, right?
98:54Like he's like a short area ball in hand guy.
98:57So I'm like, if this guy couldn't fit, like if this guy couldn't produce in an offense with a coach who was
99:04all about scheming yak guys into space, a quarterback who wants to throw two yards every play, then like now he's going
99:10to produce with like a mobile quarterback who wants to hunt deep balls and a new offense scheme.
99:16Like I doubt it. So I guess I would just say like, now I don't think he's going to do anything in
99:22the first half of the year, but Chris Bell is the only guy on this team that I think is like worth a shit whatsoever.
99:30Um, now don't take him in redraft or anything.
99:32Cause you can pick them up halfway through the season.
99:35But, um, if I was going to take any dolphins wide receiver, I would like probably just take Chris Bell in the 18th round.
99:42And I would hope for like the Christian Watson ACL recovery dream.
99:46Cause at least this guy's got some juice and at least he kind of fits the Malik Willis, like theoretical play style.
99:52Right. Which is, I'm going to throw 21 passes a game, but 13 of them are deep.
99:57Um, and you know, maybe Bell catches three of those.
100:00So that's, that's the guy I would go with.
100:03He's like the only guy to me here that has anything resembling upside.
100:07Tolbert's horrible. Malik Washington's a dud. Um, Caleb Douglas is like, was literally like, he was the, he wasn't even like on my spreadsheet before NFL draft.
100:15Like that was like out of nowhere. Uh, Kevin Coleman's actually kind of fun, but he hasn't gotten any hype that I've really seen.
100:22So, um, and then they have some other goofy, oh, they have two, two at well.
100:27I can't hear. Yeah. Big signing, big signing. Yeah.
100:30I mean, it's going to be the, the, the, the passing volume on this team.
100:34This is one of the reasons why I think like, um, I mean, Devon HN is like probably like the mascot of thinking about thinking.
100:41I love that dude. But one of the reasons I can't even get on him this year is like, if you actually
100:48get into projections process, I know it's really easy to think of, okay, well they don't have anyone to throw it to.
100:54So HN is going to have this massive target share.
100:57If you actually like go through and you do the exercise of projecting the dolphins, the pass volume on this team is going to be insanely low.
101:05There are so many compounding factors. They have Bobby Slok who already wants to play slow.
101:10Malik Willis is coming from the green basis and they probably want to play slow.
101:15They have a gazillion different players. They're going to be summing them on and off the field.
101:20That makes you play slow. They're probably not going to sustain drives very well.
101:24So they're going to have a lot of like, you know, we went three and out and our defense stinks.
101:30So we get the ball back 10 minutes later and we went three and out and again, and we ran 11 plays this half, right?
101:37You think of like the jets last year, they're going to be super run heavy.
101:42So, you know, think of all the games that New York jets played last year where they had one drive.
101:47It looked pretty good. It was like a 12 play nine minute field goal drive.
101:52And then they had one other possession that half was a three and out.
101:56And then it was like, by the time they got the ball back in the fourth quarter, it's like the game's over
102:03and they ran like 42 plays to be a lot of that.
102:06The same thing with the Raiders last year too.
102:09Yeah. So I'm expecting a combination of like a legitimately minus eight password of our expectation.
102:14I'm expecting them to run the fewest plays in the NFL.
102:17And then on the very few past plays that they do call, I'm expecting Malik Willis to have probably one of the
102:23highest rates of sacks and scrambles in the league.
102:26So he's going to turn like about 28% of his drop backs into non targets.
102:30So you're going to, there's like a possibility that there's like 360 total targets like available for the season on this team.
102:37But if you, once you factor in like the low play count, the, the sacks and scramble rate and the low pass rate of expectation.
102:44And so, yeah, like if, if someone has a 20% target share on this team, that might be like four targets a game.
102:51It's going to be like, it's going to be like the old Baltimore Ravens.
102:55Like you don't, it's going to be like 20% on the Baltimore Ravens back in the day.
103:00I think that the median outcome for this team is that Devani Chan is good, but underperforms ADP by a round or
103:07two and literally no one else has ever played ball.
103:10I think that's like actually quite plausible. I think there's going to be a black hole, but if you want to take
103:16Malik Willis as like a one QB redraft flyer, that's fine.
103:20Cause he can run a lot and maybe I'm wrong and maybe they're a little bit more fun.
103:25And then everybody gets interesting, but yeah, Dolphins are like 31 NFL teams to focus on this year guys.
103:31Mm-hmm. Joe, Joe does like him a little bit of Greg Dulcich, a little bit of Greg.
103:36Yeah, that's fine. I, I just like, I mean, I think Greg Dulcich will probably, oh, I think a chance is going to lead them in targets.
103:44I think both of which will be second in targets.
103:47I think he will probably have more targets than all the wide receivers.
103:50It's just, he's a guy that like at most, you can probably only project 60 to 70% routes because he can't block for shit either.
103:58So he's going to be like a passing situation is only tight end.
104:02And like, again, you start to do the math.
104:04It's like, well, if they only have like four, if they only have like 450 drop backs and then they only get
104:11a pass out, like as a target on 75% of those.
104:14And Greg Dulcich is only running 70% of the routes.
104:17It's like, great. Let's give him a 25% targets program.
104:20That's 65 targets or something. So you, you, you run into issues really fast.
104:24But I definitely think Dulcich like as a, as a very late round best ball guy could be fun.
104:30I could just see a world where he, he actually is earning a lot of targets like on a per route basis.
104:36But then in the box score, it's like a lot of four or five target games.
104:41Yeah, I think that's very fair. Okay. Last one, last one.
104:44And I, we just, we're not ending on the fucking dolphins.
104:48That's why, and this is, I just, I kind of wanted your opinion on one of my guys.
104:53So I'm gonna be a little selfish here. Yeah, let's do it.
104:57False. Jaden Higgins takes a leap in 2026. I know you want me to say, um, and it's okay.
105:02You don't have to say everyone else. Everyone else, everyone else at fantasy points is all in on this guy.
105:08So if you want to invite, uh, Tom or you want to invite Ryan or you want to invite Brett or Scott,
105:15like anyone that I podcast with, oh, even Gretch, he's a big Jaden Higgins guy.
105:19So let's hear everyone that everyone that I podcast with is all in on Jaden Higgins.
105:24My, my bear case is just like something against Jaden Higgins personally.
105:27Um, or even against him professionally. It's, it's just, I don't like this often stinks.
105:32Like Nick Haley's a donk. I think the Miko Ryan's is a bit of a donkey, honestly.
105:37Like he gets a lot of credit for how good the defense is.
105:41I think I can call a pretty good defense with the deal.
105:44Hunter, Will Anderson, uh, Stingley Lasseter, Petrie. Like, I don't know, like, I mean, he, he's obviously a good motivator of men
105:51or whatever, but like their whole defensive strategy is like, they just like, they run the same play 65 times a game
105:57and he has better dudes than you. And like, he's never gone for fourth of one in his life.
106:03Like they, they manage the clock terribly. And I just think this team, I think this team underperforms its talent on a pretty regular basis.
106:10Their, their whole like offensive strategy this year is like, basically they, they drafted and signed a bunch of offensive linemen who
106:17are better run blockers and pass blockers. And then they, for some reason, like traded actual assets to go get David Montgomery
106:23when they could have just signed an equivalent running back and free agency.
106:27Um, I think that they would like to give David Montgomery about 380 touches.
106:31Um, and they'd like to play as slow as possible.
106:34And they'd like to, they'd like to punt as much as possible.
106:38And they like to win a lot of games, 17 to 14.
106:41Nico Collins is one of the best NFL, best receivers, the NFL for my mind.
106:46I think he's like a legitimate top six receiver talent.
106:49And I owned a lot of Nico Collins last year and that sucked.
106:53Like it was not fun. He was like a wide receiver too, despite I think being an absolutely elite player.
106:59So Jaden Higgins, I think he was a good prospect.
107:02I don't think it was a great one, but he was definitely a good one.
107:06Ricky was fine. He had a 1.45 yards per run on limited routes.
107:10It's like, okay, it's not amazing. Um, and then, uh, maybe like as, as a best case scenario, he's a full-time wide receiver this year.
107:17Um, and he's a number two to, to dominant number one on a really run heavy offense.
107:22Like what's, what is the ceiling on that? Uh, like a wide receiver for, so I don't know.
107:28So, and then, um, I don't even know for sure that his routes are super safe.
107:32I'm getting more confident in that because the reports have been so good at camp, but this, this team has a gazillion tight ends.
107:40I feel like they're tight end depth charts. They got Schultz.
107:43They got Stover. They got Foster Moreau. They drafted Marlon Klein.
107:46Uh, they still have Brevin Jordan. They're like five deep at tight end.
107:50So I think the Texans, again, I don't think they're innovators.
107:53I think they're kind of a copycat team. So they like totally striking me as a team that could be like, yo,
108:00Sean McVay played a lot of tight ends and it worked for him.
108:04So we're going to play a lot of tight ends and I can see them playing a bunch of 12 and 13.
108:10And they have a lot of receivers. They have a Jill and Noel, who I think is interesting.
108:15I would imagine they want to find him some plays.
108:18Tank Dell's coming back. I don't know what to make of that, but I suspect they want to find him some plays
108:25and they have a boner for Xavier Hutchinson for reasons that I don't understand at all, but they love this guy raging.
108:31They love this guy. And like, I don't, I think that the Texans are a donkey team.
108:36So like for most teams, I'd be like rational coaching says Xavier Hutchinson won't play, but the Texans, I look at them
108:43and I'm like, yeah, you would play Xavier Hutchinson.
108:46That is exactly the kind of thing that you would do.
108:49So I don't know. I think, I think Higgins is going to run like 67% of the routes, make a bunch of
108:55sick catches and be a pretty distant number two to Nico and like not be that startable in the managed fantasy league,
109:02but pure talent wise, I totally get the case.
109:05And I would like to live in the world where the Texans make me less angry on a week to week basis.
109:11So maybe this is me just like being tilted about being like a Nico Collins bull for his whole career and just
109:18like constantly being infuriated at how the Texans like choose to go about their business.
109:22So I have a really hard time getting behind like worse Nico Collins when the Nico Collins experience to me has mostly been torture.
109:29But anyway, I, I wish you luck. Like what I get the optimistic case for Higgins, but like outside of Nico Collins gets hurt.
109:36Can you paint me the rosy picture of how they're both producing on this stupid team?
109:41It's I think. Yeah. Go ahead. Go. I was going to say, I think the fact that tank Dell is not really practicing yet.
109:48And that Jalen Noel has been hurt. It's kind of locking Higgins into, you know, that those two receiver sets, um, you
109:55know, the 13 personnel thing that you brought up actually, you know, did raise a red flag in my mind, but I
110:01just think he's sort of solidifying himself as the second guy that's going to be on the field.
110:07Um, and that's really the best thing I can say, because I completely agree with you in that this offense constantly feels frustrating, disjointed, boring.
110:14They want to run the ball a million times, and it's going to be a low play volume.
110:19Um, but I think if he's just getting it, you know, the, the key number is basically just the percentage of routes that he's out there running, right?
110:28If he's out there on, you know, 80 plus percent of the routes, then I can see a world where he's, you
110:34know, approaching, I think wide receiver three numbers is absolutely in realm.
110:38And if he's as good as we think he is and makes the leap, you know, could be approaching wide receiver two numbers.
110:44That's just, you know, um, that, that is the bull case and it's probably fanciful thinking, right?
110:50Yeah. I think it's less bolstered than the bear case for sure.
110:53As Jacob mentioned, and that's kind of why I asked to Jacob, my fear is like 80% route rate.
110:59Like, let's be super bullish. Let's sit, let's say we're going to give him a, a, like a 25% targets pro run.
111:05That's really bullish. So now he's got a 20% target share like on the Texans.
111:10And it's like, that's probably like, or, are, are we sure that's better than like a 16% target share on the Patriots?
111:16Cause that's like what Romeo Dobbs is probably going to have this year.
111:20You know? Um, are we sure that that's better than like, I think Michael Pittman's going to earn more targets than him.
111:27I mean, I'm not, I'm less sure about his routes than I am about Jalen Coker's routes.
111:32And this might sound crazy, but I'm a little bit more optimistic about the Panthers passing game than I am about the Texans passing game.
111:39So I don't know. Anyway, it's just, I, I struggle with, with the Jaden Higgins case, but I, um, I should probably
111:46be a little bit more open-minded because I have a lot of smart people in my ear 24 seven, including you guys
111:52now, um, tell me how good Jaden Higgins is.
111:55And I should probably take off of my hate colored glasses and be like a little bit more open to the, to this guy's baller thesis.
112:02Um, and then maybe he can just make it through.
112:05And I'll tell you this, like, I think Jaden Higgins is a good player.
112:10If Nico Collins suffers his annual hamstring pull and miss four games, like, you know, then, then I think that I, I
112:16think all the Jaden Higgins both have a major right to get excited.
112:20Cause he could, he could put up some monster numbers in that kind of a stretch.
112:25And if that happened early in the year, maybe the Texans staff would get their head out of their behinds and be
112:31like, no, we're actually just going to play both Nico and Higgins 100% of the routes.
112:36We're going to like throw the ball maybe a little bit as like a trick play.
112:41So that would be nice. Yeah, that would be, that would be very nice.
112:45Yeah. I think it was a good conversation too.
112:47Right. Because while I am confident in the player, um, it's a very scary bet to be confident in, right?
112:53Like I ranked him, you know, right around back of wide receiver three with the bullishness, but it wasn't like a, yep.
113:00Sign sealed delivered. He's got mega upside on this wide receiver 36 rank or anything like that.
113:05So yeah, I'm just trying to kind of piece together some other thoughts as well.
113:09Cause I've heard a lot of the bear or bowl cases as well.
113:13And, uh, it's kind of interesting to hear the counter as well.
113:17Cause it's very valid. So, all right, boys, I think that is a wrap on this episode of dynasty underground is been a good show.
113:24We got through a ton of these ambiguous wide receiver rooms with our guest, Jacob Sanderson, who was gracious enough to join us.
113:31Uh, yeah, go find his work. Dynasty points on the YouTube is humming weekly.
113:35We've got thinking about thinking you're pumping them out, Jacob.
113:38And I have so much respect for the actual amount that you lay out in these pieces that you write because as
113:45somebody who has worked on written pieces himself, it would take me months to probably put out some of the pieces that are the length that you do.
113:53So it's just incredible work. And like I said, at the top, very thought provoking stuff that puts a bit of a
114:00different lens on this, you know, fake game that we all nerd out on.
114:04So appreciate you joining any parting shots for the people, Jacob.
114:07Sure. I mean, the big thing to watch out for, uh, one of the reasons I haven't written up a long form
114:13post in a week is I've been working on, uh, my home league redraft guide.
114:18Um, it's going to be like absurdly long, like, like I I'm, I'm cautioning people to not read it in one go.
114:24It's more of like a scroll to the rankings.
114:27And then if you want to know what I think about a specific guy, use the command F.
114:32Um, because if you just read it start to finish, like that's unfortunately going to be your day.
114:38But, um, so I have, I have that coming along.
114:41That's my, my target was Friday. It's not happening.
114:43Uh, my new target is, is end of the weekend.
114:46Um, because I've been writing it like all week.
114:49It fits and starts. I've gone through like two rounds.
114:52Um, so anyway, that's going to come out soon.
114:55It's going to be pretty extensive. Um, and I'm really, really pumped to talk through that.
114:59So I go through like a bunch, I put in pretty extensive profiles into all my target designations and fade designations.
115:06I go through like the structural strategy of, um, how I want to build this year.
115:10If you've built a specific way, who are the players to target later rounds, all that good stuff.
115:16Um, it's probably, probably my like most read piece each year.
115:19So I'm always excited to get that out. Um, you can also check, of course, the ambiguous wide receiver room series that we put out.
115:26We talked about a couple of the teams, a bunch more, and, uh, you can check out my podcast work on dynasty points.
115:33Uh, you can check out chip chasing and you can check out the long view.
115:38Yes. You are everywhere, sir. You are everywhere. Joe, any parting shots for the people from you?
115:43No, I just want to say, thank you so much for joining us.
115:47Uh, for any of our listeners that were not familiar with Jacob's work, uh, strongly recommend it.
115:52Um, it's just a different lens and a really thoughtful approach that I appreciate the hell out of, especially from a redraft
115:58standpoint, because what we are providing mostly is dynasty analysis.
116:01But the redraft lens that you provide can be super insightful for our listeners and what to expect realistically this season out of their assets.
116:08And I mean, Hey, if you, if you're listening to this, you like dynasty content.
116:13I don't do as much, uh, dynasty content in the summer, but like there's a ton of evergreen stuff that's on the site.
116:20And all my rookie analysis from, um, March and April and may is, is all over there.
116:25So I, I'll never forget my dynasty roots. Um, even if, you know, in August it's primarily redraft focus.
116:30Yeah. Love it. So for Jacob Sanderson, for Joe Quavius Kuvitakis, I am Trav.
116:35We'll see you next week. Peace. I am selling the building.
116:38The final season of FX is the bear. The restaurant is flooded.
116:41Everything's either going to be okay. No, stop. Or not.
116:44We are outgunned and we are outmanned, but we have each other.
116:48FX is the bear. The final season, all episodes now streaming on Disney plus.
