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0:50Hello and welcome to Undrafted, a Dynasty Game Theory podcast brought to you by OTC Fantasy.
0:55I am your host, Scott Belanger, a.k.a. Jax Falcone.
0:57You can find me on Twitter, at DinoGameTheory. This is episode number 252.
1:02Let's roll. I'm telling you, we've been talking about it.
1:05We talked about it last week on the Underground show, how you really don't want to pay too much attention to a
1:12lot of the noise that comes through your algorithm.
1:14You know, whether it's a fancy catch down the sideline, this sort of stuff, you really want to fade some of the hype.
1:22But what we did mention on the Underground was if it's coming from inside the building, if the message is coming from
1:29inside the building, especially if it's bubbling, you probably want to listen to that type of intel.
1:34And there's literally no better person to have on the show than my friend, Greg Brainos.
1:39Greg runs the Coach Speak Index. And quite frankly, if you are not following Coach Speak Index, you're doing it wrong if you're a Dynasty player.
1:47And not only that, but this is the absolute time of year where it's giving you probably its highest level of value.
1:54Because while everybody's paying attention to Calvin Ridley running a cool slant route on video, we're paying attention to what the coaches are saying and what that means.
2:03And for all that and more, I welcome to the program Mr.
2:07Greg Brainos at Coach Speak Index on Twitter. Greg, what's going on, buddy?
2:11What's up, Scott? Thank you so much for the invite.
2:14Glad to run it back again this year with you.
2:17And yeah, one of the things that I've been hearing more and more from the Coach Speak Index Discord is that, you
2:24know, this is great for best ball, this is great for redraft, but this is like a cheat code for Dynasty, especially
2:31because we get so many pressers like very early in the offseason.
2:34We get the combine stuff in February. We get the owners meetings in March.
2:39And every month we're having pressers. And they're telling you like very much ahead of time of what they think of a lot of these players.
2:47That's why people are able to get in so early on.
2:50Guys like Jonathan Brooks, who's going in like the 140s in best ball drafts earlier, and now he's going in the 80s.
2:57So, yeah, people are getting sharper and sharper, which means that, you know, the earlier that you draft a lot of times,
3:04the more of an edge that you're going to get.
3:07And then for Dynasty, man, it's like they say, it's a cheat code to have this info because you can move on it immediately, right?
3:15In your leagues and make trades. And just being a day ahead of other people or like a couple hours ahead of
3:22some other people is such a big edge. Yeah, absolutely.
3:25I mean, if you, you know, I was thinking about the other way, too.
3:30Like if you hear something on Coach Speak Index and you think, well, the community is going to overreact to this, also valuable.
3:37You know, even if you're going to bet against it.
3:40Yeah. Even if you're going to bet against the sort of the narrative, good to know right away that it's coming.
3:47So you can sort of prepare as soon as you see a league mate, maybe get excited about it.
3:53You can you can take advantage. So almost no matter which way you think things are, it's better to have the intel straight from the source.
4:01And, you know, that's what you have done. You've curated for those that don't know what Coach Speak Index is, is basically
4:08you've curated all of the information into one spot so that people can get it all.
4:13Now you put some of that on Twitter and, of course, that's valuable.
4:17But the real value is getting every single bit of information that's curated and the whole algorithm, you know, on Coach Speak
4:24Index website and, you know, the rest of the stuff that you provide there.
4:28So but let's get into it. You know, let's get into it.
4:32The one thing that, you know, you mentioned Jonathan Brooks.
4:35That was a great one. You know, I certainly felt like he had asymmetrical upside.
4:40And now looks like he has a bit of floor to tether him to opportunity going in.
4:45And that was a great call. So I feel good about that.
4:49I feel good about Carson Beck. I don't know that I played Carson Beck properly in all my rookie drafts.
4:55I actually started to. It's crazy. The first rookie draft I had, Greg, I drafted him in like the second round.
5:02And then I was like, you know, I was like, wait, I feel maybe I'm the maybe I'm the mark.
5:08Maybe this is just a really bad play. So I started to fade off that a little bit, got him a few times in the third.
5:16But I probably should have just been hammering him after sort of, you know, even after, you know, right around where Nick
5:23Singleton and Jonah Coleman are going like early second.
5:26What else are you really doing there? There's no other like players that are like smash them home and know you got something.
5:33You know, all these second second round rookie pick wide receivers are coin flips at best.
5:38The tight ends are there's just nothing. Right. So I'm kind of leaning back into my original thought that that was probably the right way to go.
5:47But subsequently, we had been giving the advice that, hey, Carson Beck is a buy because there's going to be starts.
5:53There's just going to be starts. And once he starts, the value goes up.
5:58Well, now we've gotten some other information, which was, you know, prime time game on the field against a bunch of scrubs.
6:04But nonetheless, he performed really well. And I think for that, his value has gone up.
6:09What have you been hearing coaches and, you know, the sort of word on the ground in that regard?
6:15Yeah, they asked Matt LaFleur about him in the in the postgame after that that preseason game the other night, what stood out about Carson Beck's performance.
6:24And LaFleur said the same thing that I keep seeing at practice where he just gets in and out of the huddle, doesn't make it too big.
6:32He lives by the play. You know, this like Ted Lasso memory of a goldfish type stuff.
6:38So, yeah, it was preseason and we have seen quarterbacks like really flourish in the preseason and then they're put, you know,
6:45in like real live bullets in a real game and it looks different.
6:49But you would at least rather the guy look really good in a preseason game against the vanilla defense than just like
6:56completely flop on his on his face against the vanilla defense.
6:59Right. So at least a good start there. Like it's not it's it's nothing bad about it.
7:04Yeah, I think to you know, someone I tweeted about it.
7:08Someone said, aren't you better than taking victory laps over a preseason game?
7:12First of all, I was like, no, I'm not.
7:15But secondly, it was more like thank you. It was more like I think we ought to be just paying attention to what's going on here.
7:23And that that is that the the confidence that they're going to have in him has to be up, not down.
7:30Right. If he had gone out there and fallen on his face, then it's like, boy, I'm not sure we're ever going to see this guy.
7:38He just doesn't look ready. Now, if he continues to maybe make some plays in the preseason, you know, you never know.
7:45I mean, I look back to like players like Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson, where, you know, we weren't all that sure,
7:51but they just kind of became the guy like they just did it.
7:56You know, and I'm not suggesting again that Carson Beck is that I'm saying that that is in the the, you know, range of outcomes for him.
8:04And I think when you hear what he is, it sounds a lot like a Bo Nix situation where he just came
8:11in was like, you know, kind of not really, you know, he's just a pro almost.
8:16Right. And, you know, whether or not he's good enough to actually move the needle as a quarterback, I'm dubious to that.
8:23But I do think he's going to be good enough to get in the game.
8:28I would say, what would you say the over under is starts in 2026 for Carson Beck?
8:33Oh, man. I'd probably. I'd say like two and a half, maybe like I can see him, you know, late later on in the season.
8:41Arizona obviously has has a tough schedule. And if it's just looking like they're mathematically eliminated pretty early on relatively in the
8:48season, then it would make sense to be like, all right, let's let's get him in there.
8:53Let's see what we have again. Get it. Get him in actual NFL gameplay and see if there's something there to try and develop for the future.
9:01Or do we do we need to really zone in on getting a quarterback in this next year's draft?
9:07Right. I would I would agree with that. Well, and the number I would say is higher.
9:13Your analysis was spot on. But I do think they're going to probably give him more than that.
9:18I was thinking closer to because here's the thing.
9:21What do we expect this team to be good?
9:24You know, if they're two and six, I don't know.
9:27That's kind of fair. Like even if they're three and six, like, you know, I guess my point is, is that at
9:34what point are they like, is there going to be some drumbeat to try and get him in there?
9:40I think the number could be closer to eight, you know, maybe five and a half, six and a half.
9:46Excuse me. Over under. I definitely smash the over of two and a half if you gave me that money, because I
9:53do think that toward the end of the season, they're going to be compelled and incentivized to play him.
9:59You know, Jacoby did sort of renegotiate a contract, but it really was just more money for this year and not more commitment past this year.
10:07So they're only incentivized to sort of have him on the field insofar as it means they win.
10:13If they don't, what else does he provide them?
10:16Um, maybe a steady hand to keep everybody else sort of not lost and, you know, giving up on the season.
10:22But if they're two and six, maybe Carson Beck gives them as good a chance of winning and staying connected and, you
10:29know, a little bit of youthful exuberance and things of that nature.
10:33So I don't know, man. I think there's actually some, some, something there for Carson Beck.
10:38And I think the buy window first, because there's plenty of skeptics, I think it's still open for him.
10:44Um, the buy window on Dalton Kincaid remains open.
10:47You know, he was so super efficient last year, but did not play enough injuries playing behind Dawson Knox, et cetera, et cetera.
10:54Not a real tight end. You know, he's more of a slot receiver.
10:58You know, we really want to see him get on the field for enough snaps for the efficiency to actually pay off with fantasy points.
11:06What are your thoughts? So Brandon Bean on January 29th said, I did a little study of when Dalton was on the field.
11:13We averaged seven more points with Dalton on the field than without him.
11:17And I think we were two and three in the games without him.
11:22Just look at the things and the mismatch that he can be.
11:25So we need to keep him healthy and we need to make sure we armor him as best as we can.
11:32They've also talked about how he, he looks a little bit stronger this year.
11:36He looks more chiseled. The head coach, Joe Brady said that they've been having these competitions in camp.
11:42They had this tug of war competition. They had Dalton Kincaid as the anchor versus a nose tackle as the anchor on
11:49the other side, which like seems both dumb and bullish.
11:52Right. Yeah. Kincaid side one, by the way, in this, in this tug of war competition.
11:57And then Joe Brady and, and another presser said, quote, he's a freak of an athlete and we're a better offense when he's out on the field.
12:05End quote. Brady has also referenced this, this quote unquote study that, that Brandon Bean did, which is probably just him pulling up pro football reference.
12:14I was going to say. Yeah. Yeah. But they, they, they recognize and realize that they're a much better offense when he's out there.
12:21I, I of course don't expect him to be an inline tight end or a guy who's, who, who has 90% route
12:28participation, but he was very effective with, and put up fantasy points with around like 50 or 55%.
12:34I think we could see that get up to around the 65% route participation range.
12:38And if that happens, then this offense is really cooking and Dalton Kincaid is as well.
12:43I can see Brandon Bean with the, uh, the glasses on.
12:47How do you spell Roto viz? You know what I mean?
12:50Yeah. I got you, Brandon. Well, let's look it up together player.
12:54Uh, so yeah, totally. But I look, you know, the, the routes run for Dalton Kincaid have gone down every year, you
13:01know, went from five 16, three 36 to 253, but yet his receiving PFF receiving grade has gone up every year.
13:08So he's gotten better, but just on less, uh, opportunity.
13:11And we really need those two things to converge.
13:14His ADOT has gotten further down the field every year.
13:17His yards per hour run have gotten better every year up to a 2.70 last year, which is literally elite at any position.
13:24So I'm not suggesting that he's going to run 500 routes and be 2.70 yards per hour run.
13:30That's probably not going to happen. What we need is for these things to converge.
13:34You know, we need them to go up in the, uh, you know, routes run and it's okay if it comes down a little in terms of efficiency.
13:43Obviously we would expect that, but you know, it sounds to me like they intend to get him a lot more usage
13:50this year, probably closer to the four or 500, uh, routes run.
13:54Like we saw in his rookie season. Is that kind of what, you know, you can say by the tea leaves, dude,
14:01four or 500 routes won't run would be incredible.
14:03Um, yeah, I, I, I think maybe we could see kind of in, in the 400 range.
14:09Um, and they, they, they do have some other good tight ends, but they're, they're more of the, you know, blocking style tight ends.
14:16Obviously Jackson Hawes, they talk about like what a monster he is as a blocker.
14:21Dawson Knox pretty decent in, in the past game, but also more, more, more of a blocker.
14:26And, uh, yeah, maybe, Hey, we get, we get some 12 and 13 personnel and Kincaid is out there for, for those
14:33and, and, and get some real usage there. But it's, it's very clear that they view him as one of their best
14:40weapons and a guy who they really kind of want to play this offense through.
14:45Yeah. I think when you also, when you look at the wide receiver room, it's weird because there's like depth, but there isn't any depth.
14:53Does that make sense? Like, it's like, Oh, well you go from Khalil.
14:57Well, they have Keon Coleman. Well, they have Joshua Palmer.
15:00Well, they just drafted Skylar Bell. It's like, you can say these names and they sort of mean something to somebody, but
15:07they may not mean anything to the coaching staff.
15:10And it could be that it's DJ more, some wide receiver, 12 personnel Kincaid in the slot is what they prefer.
15:16And I think that that could be the way it goes.
15:20Of course, it could be that he's off the field and you see Keon Coleman out there was Shakir in the slot.
15:27And you're like, God, man, we need to get Kincaid on the field here.
15:31You know? And I'm always wondering, that's really the play.
15:34If you could tell me that, not that you can, but you know, if I could learn that information, I'd know whether
15:41to make a huge bet on Dalton Kincaid this season.
15:44I think at cost, I think he's worth a gamble because, you know, with that efficiency, with that offense, and if he
15:51can just get those, you know, those routes up, I think he has top four tight end upside and it's hard to
15:58find that, you know, tight end 10 and later.
16:01So. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. Who do you want on the field?
16:04Dalton Kincaid or Keon Coleman? I mean, it's easy for me.
16:08It's easy for me, player. I want the guy who's the anchor on a tug of war team.
16:13That's what I want. You know, that's what I want.
16:17So staying with the tight end position, a player that I, you know, I could talk about for forever is, is a
16:23Ronda Gadsden, because I feel like Ronda Gadsden has been getting just shoved down the ADP line with a best ball and
16:30redraft to the point where I'm like, wait a second, this is kind of crazy to me.
16:36I just don't even quite get that price. That price has also dragged down his dynasty price to the point where I
16:43think he's an absolute buy and definitely an absolute smash in all, you know, in all formats, just because of the upside.
16:50I'm not even saying that the downside play that people are, the picture that people are painting is incorrect.
16:56I'm just saying on the off chance that it isn't.
16:59His upside is so massive that it's worth making the bet at his current cost.
17:03Tell me a little bit about a Ronda Gadsden and whether or not we're going to win these bets.
17:09Yeah, I think this ADP is being pushed down because of the, these, these camp reports that he is kind of third
17:16on the, on the depth chart in terms of who he's playing with.
17:20He's playing with backup quarterbacks out there. They asked, they actually asked Jim Harbaugh the other day about the tight end room.
17:27They, they, they said, what do you think of David Njoku and Ronda Gadsden?
17:32Uh, and he, he said so far, so good, really good.
17:35And then he says, Charlie Kohler, David or Ronda, that is a really strong group.
17:40And then he threw in a Scott Matlock as well.
17:43Who's kind of a hybrid fullback tight end, uh, guy for them.
17:47Uh, I think people really are sleeping a little bit on how much Charlie Kohler is going to play the, the, um, the production.
17:54I think we could argue about, but I think he kind of easily leads this tight end room in snaps this year.
18:01And he did have a good receiving profile coming out of college.
18:05He ends up in Baltimore, uh, drafted by general manager, Joe Ortiz, who is the current general manager of the Los Angeles chargers.
18:12And he was stuck behind, uh, Mark Andrews and Isaiah likely there.
18:16So didn't, didn't get a ton of run in the, in the passing game.
18:20But, uh, I still remember a presser from last year where they asked Carball about Kohler as, as a pass catcher.
18:27He's like, you guys don't understand. He's a, he's a really good pass catcher.
18:31We just happen to have Mark Andrews and, and Isaiah likely and, and actually coming, um, originally Charlie Kohler, what wasn't like
18:38this kind of steamroller blocking tight end and he kind of developed into that.
18:43So that's pretty good to have that receiving profile that he, that he had coming out of college and then to develop
18:49into a really exceptional, uh, blocker and inline wide tight end.
18:53I think that's going to be really valuable for the chargers offense and for the Mike McDaniel offense there with, uh, the,
19:00the two tackles coming back and, and, and Slater and all.
19:03Um, yeah, as, as far as Gadsden, man, he has a really nice skillset.
19:08He was not good as a blocker last year, but he does have the type of frame that if, if he were
19:15to fill that out, I think he could become at least like a, a slightly plus EV blocker at some point.
19:21Uh, I, I, I believe they said he put on like 10 pounds of muscle this off season.
19:27So maybe that'll help with that. I, when it comes to the skill, like the receiving skillset of the tight ends in
19:34that room, I do think he is by far the most explosive one.
19:38Uh, I think it'll be tough for Mike McDaniel to see that skillset.
19:42Um, when we, we've seen what he's done with guys like Johnny Smith and, uh, Darren Waller and Greg Dulcich who were
19:49not good blockers themselves, but brought a lot to the table in, in the past game.
19:54So I think there's a lot of similarities there.
19:57Uh, I, I'm not, I'm not sure he's going to play a ton of snaps for the chargers, but I could see
20:04the snaps that he's in on where it's like schemed up stuff from Daniel that we saw for, for John who Smith,
20:10uh, a couple, a couple seasons ago. So yeah, I, you know, in, in, in best ball and in dynasty, I, I
20:17would be completely fine buying on this kind of dip that we're seeing.
20:21Yeah, I totally agree. You know, it's interesting. You mentioned, uh, the Darren Waller, uh, by the way, Charlie Kohler, uh, kind
20:28of reminded me of Josh Oliver, Josh Oliver out of San Jose state was like thousand yard receiver.
20:34And everybody was like, he's a blocking tight end.
20:37I'm like, dude, homeboy could play, you know, now he developed into that because obviously you go where, where you can get,
20:44you know, opportunity and playing time and money and contract.
20:47And Josh Oliver did turn that into a contract with Minnesota.
20:50And so, so didn't Charlie Kohler. So obviously, yeah, I think Kohler's a, a much better pass catcher than people give him credit for.
20:58I just wonder if he'll get pigeonholed as did, uh, Josh Oliver into that role and not necessarily come out of it that much.
21:05I don't think they're gonna be like, you know what, now he's doing everything.
21:10Uh, I don't, so I don't suspect that, but I do see what you see there.
21:15Um, and I do see, you know, that Mike McDaniel offense playing a bit heavy going with that, you know, two wide
21:22receiver set where, you know, everything kind of goes to two guys and, you know, they run the hell out of the
21:29ball and they create mismatches that way with speed.
21:31I totally see all that. That being said, we also saw Mike McDaniel take Darren Waller, who Arunda Gadsden comps to very,
21:38very favorably, both former wide receivers, long lean, uh, you know, up in the air pass catchers that can, that can, you
21:45know, run fast and rip the seam, uh, you know, to your point about the weight, you know, Gadsden also two years
21:52removed from playing wide receiver in college, right? I mean, he's a new to the position tight end.
21:58Um, so I think for all those reasons there's skepticism, but I also think that there's huge upside.
22:03I'm also one last point. I don't, I, you know, I've watched football.
22:08I remember David and Joku was, uh, the best athlete on the field at one point.
22:13That's not what I saw on the field in the last season, especially right.
22:17He's, he, he's suffered a lot of injuries in his career.
22:20He's getting older. Uh, he got completely leapfrogged by Harold Fannin Jr.
22:24Yes. Last year in Cleveland, which, which is fine.
22:27Harold Fannin is, is, is a good tight end, but, um, you know, it wasn't what people were expecting last year for David and Joku.
22:35And then he was also on, on the, on the free agent market for quite a while.
22:40This off season doesn't get that big of a contract from, from the chargers.
22:45I, I, I originally, I thought, okay, this is David and Joku is more of the kind of the tight end three
22:51here in this room where he, he can do some of the blocking.
22:56He can do some of the pass catching, but he isn't as good as a Rhonda Gadsden is in the past game.
23:02And he's not as good as Charlie Kohler is as an inline Y tight end.
23:07Right. So like maybe more of a, uh, like depth play for them and kind of contingent play.
23:13If something happens to either of those other two guys where they can kind of plug Njoku in and, uh, yeah, we'll
23:20see, we'll see what their actual plans are for him.
23:23Yeah. It's an interesting room for sure. And I, I just would say that I think that the upside mostly is held
23:30in Rhonda Gadsden is all I'd say. I mean, I guess there's a little bit of a contingent upside in Njoku, if
23:37he could possibly somehow stay healthy and the stars align, certainly I could see it, but just, it's a hard tale for me to, to believe there.
23:45So I, yeah, I'm betting against the Charlie Kohler.
23:48I mean, the David Njoku, uh, breakout, uh, let's switch gears that one of the bigger, you know, um, players this off
23:55season, uh, you know, the, the narrative has been, uh, pretty amazing.
23:59There's been some people who've spoken out against Luther Burden's pretty famously, uh, one of my friends on Twitter, but, uh, let's
24:06talk about Luther Burden right after this. Right now, get up to 15% off select storage solutions, put heavy duty HDX totes
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24:59Welcome back to the program. I'm here with Greg Branos from coach speak index.
25:03We're going to talk about Luther Burden, who has been getting a lot of steam.
25:08And I bet, uh, there's a pages and pages of awesome coach speak analysis on Luther Burden.
25:13So let the, let the, uh, Luther Burden porn begin.
25:16Go ahead, Greg, tell us all about it. Yes.
25:19Ben Johnson on May 28th said, quote, I'm buying Luther Burden stock right now.
25:23Just how he's approached this off season. It's been electric and quote also said, quote, when we drafted him, we saw an
25:30explosive athlete who was really dangerous with a ball in his hands.
25:34The question was, how can we get it in his hands?
25:38The easy things to do are screens or short throws, but I think there's a lot more to his game that we've
25:44worked to unlock and quote, uh, Johnson also said that, uh, Luther Burden looks like he's playing at a different speed right now.
25:52Obviously last off season, he was dealing with a, with a little injury as was Colston Loveland.
25:57We saw that the bears were a little bit slow to incorporate them into the offense, obviously missing a little bit of
26:04time in training camp, but man, at, at, at that back half of the season, when these guys started, uh, started getting
26:11actual playing time, they, they look really good. And this, uh, this isn't, this is an offense where Ben Johnson has put
26:18an emphasis on passing EPA above like downfield shots or, um, uh, you know, they had asked them at one point last
26:25season about, uh, what, what is most predictive for an offense if you're going to win the game and Ben Johnson said,
26:32well, a lot of coaches will tell you that it's turnovers, but it's actually passing EPA and talked about how like, let's,
26:38let's get the ball into the hands of our yak guys and just like, let them work their magic, right?
26:45These low kind of low risk, high reward plays.
26:48And we see them use the 10th overall draft pick on Colston Loveland.
26:52We see them take Luther Burden early in the, in the second round and really paid off for them at the end of last season.
26:59And now they're in year two in this offense, which figures to be even better this year, uh, under, under Ben Johnson.
27:06So it's, it's, it's very exciting stuff. Yeah. I mean, I just think of Ben, Ben Johnson think one of us, one of us.
27:14I mean, just the fact that he's saying, you know, even the words EPA just shows you that he understands, you know,
27:21what wins in football and then, you know, the, to be, you know, a good enough football guy, cause you need to be both.
27:28You can't just be a nerd out there to be a great enough football guy, to be able to execute and scheme
27:35around trying to solve that goal, uh, is clearly something he's great at.
27:39And, you know, it does so even despite, you know, Caleb sometimes just being inaccurate.
27:44Uh, I've always said somehow or another, Caleb has been inaccurate without being turnover prone, which kind of a mystery to me, but God bless him.
27:52He's done it. We'll see how long that can persist.
27:55Uh, I feel like he's either going to become more accurate and more efficient, or he's going to increase turnovers.
28:02I just can't see how this version of Caleb continues.
28:05Uh, I do think the easy button throws with Burton burden, excuse me, are not going anywhere.
28:10And I do suspect that the downfield shots and the sort of the big boy plays the, the real boy, as I
28:17call him, you know, not Pinocchio, the fake, uh, wide receivers, but a real boy.
28:22Uh, you know, he, the burden is not Kadarius Tony is, I guess what I'm trying to say in a very short way.
28:29He's much more than that. Of course we know that, but how much more, well, look, I think it could be exponential
28:36because, uh, I, I, you know, we've had, uh, Matt Waldman on the program, his wide receiver one, there's film guys who
28:43went out there and said, no, no, no, this is a real dude.
28:47He can really do stuff. And, you know, played in a bit of a gimmicky offense in college.
28:52So of course you're going to see mostly the easy button stuff there, uh, when you don't have a quarterback who can
28:59actually get it to where it needs to get to with Caleb, a little bit of a different story, especially with Colson
29:06Loveland and Roma dunes on the field. I think that I've been telling everybody, this is the offense to target.
29:13I think, you know, I think those four, uh, you know, are the past game weapons.
29:18It's like, it's not, there's no, like it's so fully consolidated.
29:21I suspect all three of those players to get a hundred plus targets in this offense.
29:26What do you think? Yeah. Kind of like when Ben Johnson was in Detroit and he had Amon Ross St.
29:32Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and, uh, you know, that Jameer Gibbs there.
29:36So yeah, I mean, Ben Johnson kind of bad genius offensive play caller.
29:41And you've got this, um, this offense, who's probably going to run a lot of heavy personnel with the tight ends that they have.
29:48And, uh, and obviously Loveland, but then Cole commit and they draft Sam Rauch who's, who's, who's a really good blocker.
29:55So could see a decent amount of 13. Obviously we'll see a lot of 12 personnel and that's really good for the,
30:02for the receivers and also will be good for, for Colston Loveland.
30:05So yeah, I, I see those two being the focal point.
30:09Ben Johnson, the soft season has said that these two guys are going to be a huge part of our offense this year.
30:16And it just makes complete and total sense. While we're here, I don't think I had them on the show sheet, but
30:23Colston Loveland has been one of my biggest bets.
30:26And, you know, I've got one more that you have been positive about down the, down the stretch here that we'll talk
30:33about, but Colston Loveland has been one of my biggest bets.
30:36And, you know, we have a saying on the show, Trav was right.
30:40Me and Joe are always telling him he's an idiot and that he's wrong.
30:45And then we'll circle back and his take was right.
30:48And we were wrong. We'll hashtag Trav was right.
30:51Well, Trav was out, out in front of Colston Loveland, uh, before, you know, during the rookie draft, uh, was his guy,
30:57you know, we're circling back to Trav was right this off season.
31:01I have been Mr. Colston Loveland. I think Colston Loveland's well, no, I don't think he is my tight end two and dynasty.
31:08I have him above Trey McBride and dynasty. I think there's a very good chance he can finish above him in 2026, uh, in fantasy points.
31:17I think that he has a real shot of being the tight end one obviously would require something sort of to happen to Bowers.
31:24I do think Bowers is clearly the tight end one if you're handicapping this stuff, but I think Colston Loveland has so,
31:31so much upside, uh, got anything to just make me feel even better about that, that, that stance.
31:37I mean, when they've been talking about the past game, it's been Luther burden and Colston Loveland.
31:42It's, it's been like that the entire off season.
31:45And, uh, I think Loveland is, is an exceptional talent at tight end.
31:49And they talked about him a lot last year about, Hey, the, this guy's a much better blocker than, than you think he is.
31:56And, um, yeah, it's, this offense is just going to revolve around those two this year.
32:01It's so, so good. Speaking of the Trey McBride offense, there's been some negative talk with the drops and who knows what,
32:08and he needs glasses and he's not the player we thought he was Marvin Harrison Jr.
32:13Um, I tend to fade these, the, the X prototype, uh, in rookie drafts, um, you know, just in general, um, you
32:20know, a little further down than does consensus. I just, I'm afraid of that prototype just because of everything you just mentioned
32:27about what, you know, Ben Johnson is thinking in terms of EPA short throws this, you know, it's just, you know, look
32:34at the players that consistently dominate in fantasy at the wide receiver position.
32:38Amon Ra, right. You know, Cooper cup, uh, you know, even the guys like Jamar chase, I've mentioned, who's an outside downfield
32:45player tends to play a lot in the slot to be successful and to have his triple crown season was through the slot.
32:52So long story short with, uh, you know, Marvin Harrison Jr.
32:56But what has been maybe behind the curtain that is more or maybe less encouraging?
33:00Well, more encouraging is Michael floor on June 2nd, saying that he is our X receiver, but you can move them around where sometimes he is.
33:09And sometimes he's not. And that is very different than the way that drew pets and used him, uh, the, the past
33:16couple of seasons where he was like pretty static at X and they, it was so weird because Michael Wilson is a
33:22guy who, you know, good, good at the Z, but also like more than good enough playing at X.
33:28Like you could have been playing Michael Wilson at X, like 30% of the time and been moving Marvin Harrison Jr.
33:35around a little bit, but, but petcing never did that.
33:38It seems like Michael floor is very willing, uh, to do this.
33:42The they're, they're not super concerned about the, the drops and in practice, you know, Lafleur talking about how, like, like whatever, man, like, sure.
33:50You guys talk about that stuff and it'll go viral or whatever, but like you don't talk about on the very next play.
33:57He, he, he makes a nice catch. Like no, no, nobody tweets out the video of that stuff.
34:03The, the same kind of stuff that we heard from that that's encouraging from like the, the previous guys like Jonathan Gannon,
34:10uh, talking about this intense work ethic that Marvin Harrison, uh, junior has, we've kind of been hearing the same thing from, from Michael Lafleur.
34:17So that's, that's always nice to hear that like a guy is just continuously trying to improve his craft and like, maybe,
34:24maybe we believe in the talent in the profile that Marvin Harrison Jr.
34:28Had coming out and that Michael Lafleur will be a better fit for him as, as an, as an offensive, uh, play caller.
34:36And, uh, yeah, he's, he's, he's like pretty cheap in, in drafts relative to, well, especially where we were drafting him before and in his profile.
34:44But I, I imagine in dynasty as well, if, if, uh, if, you know, maybe just reach out and, and, and make
34:51an offer, see how cheap you can acquire, uh, him because like those first two years might be the lowest point for him, right?
34:58Like now he has an actual good offensive play caller who, who, who knows how to use them, uh, to, to, to the best of his abilities.
35:07Yeah, totally. I, you know, the Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr.
35:10Thing from last year is some of the reason why I'm a slight fade again, slight fade on Trey McBride was just the volume like Trey McBride.
35:19I mean, you probably already know this, but do you know how many routes Trey McBride ran last year?
35:25He ran more than like 17 games worth of routes.
35:28Yeah. He ran almost 700 routes. He ran 695 routes.
35:31Like there's no world in which, and, and Michael Wilson, Michael Wilson ran 631.
35:35Right. So like, you know, everybody's like Michael Wilson was so good.
35:39He was like, look, he had a 19% target rate, but did Michael Wilson last year?
35:44It's all right. Like for as much as we were down on, uh, Marvin Harrison Jr.
35:49They had the same yards per out run at 1.59.
35:52Um, you know, they had Marvin Harrison Jr. Actually had a better quarterback rating when targeted 91, seven to 90.3.
35:58Like, I don't know. It would just, wasn't that much of a difference between those two players.
36:04I do think. And, and most of Marvin Harrison's came before the volume got turned up before that all happened.
36:10So, and the splits with, with Michael Wilson, with Marvin Harrison Jr.
36:14playing and not playing are drastic and, and not good from Michael Wilson.
36:18I do think that at the end of the day, they're going to be like, oh, if these guys are at all similar, Marvin Harrison Jr.
36:26is going to get the sort of the preference.
36:29Um, and so, you know, I'd like to see Marvin Harrison Jr.
36:33with literally even with Carson Beck or with Jacoby Brissett, who can hopefully get a little bit more out of him than Kyla Murray was unable to get.
36:41Um, you know, we always mentioned that Marvin Harrison Jr.
36:45does have a Kyla Murray problem. Well, it looked like the whole team kind of did in some ways.
36:51They have a defense problem too, don't they? But, uh, offensively, I think that you're right.
36:56I think moving him around could spell it. Look, long story short, I'm a buy on Marvin Harrison Jr.
37:02I'm trying to see if the coach speak sort of follows that.
37:05Uh, it sounds like to some degree, um, but maybe a tepid buy rather than a smash buy.
37:11Is that about right? Yeah, there aren't really many players that they're just like super raving about.
37:16Like this is just kind of the way that, that they are.
37:20I think, uh, with, you know, with, with Michael floor, even when he was with, with the Rams, he was kind of
37:27this way, like not too high on any one guy.
37:30And we got like the crazy Nathaniel Hackett stuff on, on, on the backfield and, and all that business of, of, of
37:37like, yeah, all these guys are good. All these guys are kind of the same basically was the tone.
37:43It's like, no, come on, come on, buddy. They're not all the same.
37:47No, they're not all the same. Um, one of the guys that I think, you know, by the way, um, let me just read this to you.
37:56This was routes run last year. Most routes run Trey McBride, 695 second.
38:00Jamar chase 632 third Michael Wilson. So yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure.
38:03That makes a ton of sense. That is, and the guy, and, and he was still, I mean, what did he get?
38:10You know, he barely crested a thousand yards. So, I mean, you know, this is this, this Michael Wilson by, I mean,
38:17this is one of the easier fades I've ever seen in my life.
38:21And, and I don't even dislike Michael. I think he's gonna be fine.
38:25He'll be fine. But it's the same reason we faded Jerry Judy the year before when he had the 700 yards, 700
38:32routes and barely got to a thousand yards. Anyway, uh, someone who I'm not fading, who I think hasn't really necessarily caught
38:39the steam that I thought he might is Josh Downs.
38:42I saw that you had posted something on Twitter, uh, positively about Josh Downs.
38:47Tell us a little bit about what you've been hearing about him.
38:50Yeah. Early in the off season, they, they asked Shane Steichen, do you think Josh Downs could play in 12 personnel?
38:57Could he play outside? And, and, and Steichen said, Hey, we're going to try it out in the spring where we'll play him on the outside.
39:05We'll see, kind of see how it looks. And then we got these quotes at the end of July.
39:11I got this one on July 29th where Steichen kind of finally came out and said it.
39:17He said, we're excited about Josh Downs right now.
39:19Obviously a guy that can play inside and outside for us now.
39:23And his role is going to improve for us this season, which we're excited about.
39:28And we have gotten a lot of that recently from the Colts, from Shane Steichen, from the general manager, uh, Chris Ballard as well.
39:35And, uh, it, it, yeah, this is another one of these things that makes total sense, especially when you look at the rest of the roster there.
39:44Now, uh, that being said, Chris Ballard on July 28th was asked, are you considering bringing in a veteran receiver?
39:50And Ballard said, we will, I don't think right now, but at some point we'll evaluate and probably talk through some of those guys.
39:58I know there's been a, um, a lot of Keenan Allen smoke out there about whether, uh, he'll be signed by the Colts.
40:05So that's, you know, definitely something that's possible, uh, possibly on the horizon for them.
40:10But it's also very clear that they want to get Josh Downs more involved in this offense.
40:15I think they realize that the offense will just be better when, when, when they start playing it a little bit more
40:22through him, obviously through Tyler Warren as well, who they love quite a bit, Alec Pierce is coming back from this ankle thing.
40:29They don't even like have a timeline on exactly when it'll be back, but it, but it sounds like it's not too far in the distant future.
40:38So yeah, a lot of, a lot of bullish stuff for Josh Downs.
40:42Yeah. It's, it's bullish by the commentary that you're talking about.
40:45It's also bullish by the math. Like you just look at it and go, wait a minute, because right now, Alec Pierce
40:52is hurt and has been a primary deep threat, not an alpha on the field.
40:57And so even if he were fully healthy, which he's not, even if you were fully healthy, you have Josh Downs and
41:04Alec Pierce has kind of the clear one, two at wide receiver, because after that it's Ashton Doolin, Nick Westbrook, a keen a Anthony gold Laquan Treadwell.
41:12Like what do you know? Like legitimately you look down and you're like, well, who are we going to really actually play?
41:19I mean, it gets weird behind Pierce and Downs.
41:22And if Pierce is out, which it sounds like he's actually going to miss time, you know, maybe, maybe so, maybe not,
41:29I'm not a doctor, but it sounds like he is.
41:32Then Downs is the clear wide receiver one. I mean, without any hesitation, he should be on the field every down.
41:38So yeah, that, that gets a little strange right there.
41:42And so I think they really do need to bring in a player like a Keenan Allen or some other type of
41:48player just to play alongside Josh Downs, nevermind to take things away.
41:52Now, if, and when, you know, Downs Pierce and veteran wide receiver X is healthy and on the field, maybe at that
41:59point, you could tell me that Downs could get pigeonholed back to his, his previous role.
42:04Uh, just to give the listeners some, some, you know, relevance to this, you know, Downs has had 483, 365 and 379
42:11routes run over his first three seasons. And so not great.
42:15He's been sub 400 two out of basically two out of the last two years.
42:19Um, but he's been good. Uh, most of that 81% of his routes come from the slot.
42:25Uh, that did go down a little bit as he was over 20% out wide last year, the first time he'd done that.
42:32So I think there is some, some evolution to his game and look, if he can just be, you know, a hundred percent slot, right.
42:40When there is a slot, he's there. And then, you know, just kind of get that, that, you know, the wide snaps
42:47up to, you know, he, he, he basically ran under a hundred, uh, routes, uh, out wide.
42:52Right. So just kind of get that to a hundred, 150 a year.
42:56You know, it's nothing crazy, you know, just 10 routes a game from out wide.
43:01I mean, I really think that that's going to be the way that he kind of gets there, getting him to 450,
43:08500 routes, something like that, like a real wide receiver.
43:11He's earned targets. He also is the EPA King, you know, all those sort of easy button throws.
43:16He's very good after the catch and he's going, I don't even know where he's going right now.
43:22I have to look it up, but it's way the hell down there in almost every single format.
43:28I think Josh Downs is still a screaming by any reason that you disagree with that?
43:33No, I mean, well, there's the, there's the, the groin injury, uh, brand new news today from training camp.
43:39Yeah. But, um, I mean, probably not going to be going to be a huge deal for him, but let's hope not.
43:46No, the injuries obviously aside and the fact that there's one while I'm on my diatribe is really, really cool.
43:52That actually sums up fantasy football in a nutshell, because then I'll just be like, all right, yeah, nevermind everything I just said, fucking move on.
44:00Let's do it. Same thing with Luther Burton today, by the way.
44:04He, he went, uh, he went inside during, during practice.
44:07Did you see the, the deep throw where the guy basically did a hip drop on him?
44:12No, he had like a, he had like a long, it wasn't an awful hip drop, but it was basically he, he
44:19almost like ripped his ankle or something. Oh my God.
44:22Yeah. It was a beautiful play down the field and the, the, the, the cornerback just on his own team tackled him
44:29in a way that's like, how can you allow this to be happening?
44:33Uh, you know, in, in practice, it's just crazy to me.
44:37Ben Johnson is furious. Oh, I honestly, I mean, you got to watch that and be like, yo, yo, yo, that is not how we do it.
44:45So, but I get it. You gotta, you know, you gotta practice somewhat full speed, but boy, oh boy, they're, they're just always, uh, at a risk.
44:54Hey, let's move to, we're going to get back to the tight end position.
44:58Cause I do have some unfinished business there, but I want to hit, um, one of the ones that I think has
45:05been interesting to me from an analytics standpoint has been the, you know, Basial Tootin, Chris Rodriguez, Jacksonville backfield that I think,
45:12um, people are handicapping in a lot of different ways.
45:15Give me your take just from the sort of coach speak analysis.
45:19Well, overall they, uh, before training camp started Liam Cohen and, and offensive coordinator Grant Udinski were basically saying like, we're going
45:26to see how it looks in, in training camp.
45:29We're going to see how it looks out on the field.
45:32And then that'll just kind of shape how the rotation is going to go.
45:36So a couple of interesting things on March 31st at the annual owners meeting, Liam Cohen did a press conference and then
45:43he also did an interview with team media and in the presser, he said, I look at rushing yards over expected and yards after contact.
45:51And then in the interview with team media, he said, what I always appreciated about Chris Rodriguez has been his rushing yards
45:58over expected and his yards after contact. So pretty direct correlation there on, on the same day.
46:03Cohen and Udinski have both been talking about staying on schedule, how important that is getting four, six, eight yards on their rushes.
46:11Cohen saying that, you know, last year, I don't think I've, I've ever been behind schedule so much as an offensive play caller than we were last year.
46:19And he wasn't very happy about that. And then, you know, with, with, with Basial Tootin, Cohen has been talking about how,
46:26well, first of all, they were kind of surprised at how good he was in, in short yardage last year, because that
46:33wasn't really his, his like top calling card coming out of Virginia tech.
46:37That was more his explosiveness and missed tackles force and speed, but they, they used him in more of a short yardage role in his rookie season.
46:46And Travis Etienne got more of the kind of like explosive stuff and schemed up touches in the past game, but Tootin
46:53obviously had the fumbling problem coming out of college.
46:55He fumbles on his very first carry in training camp last year, which was a bad sign.
47:01And then of course he's, he's like now like very, very committed to protecting the ball.
47:06So a lot of last season was, you know, kind of two arms on the football and Liam Cohen said, okay, you,
47:13you have that part down now, right? Like you have the ball security down.
47:17Now we want to see you, all right, let's do it with one arm and let's see those arms pumping when, when
47:24you're going down the field and let's see that explosiveness that, that four to eight that we saw coming, coming out of college.
47:31So yeah, I, I, I think they are again, just going to let it see how it kind of plays out.
47:38They, they, they do like this, you know, kind of hitting yardage stuff from Chris Rodriguez and, and being able to like,
47:45all right, four yards on first down, let's get into, into second and six or whatever.
47:50For, for me, what, one of the things that would make me very apprehensive about Chris Rodriguez is the fact that he's
47:57such a zero in the passing game. And I do think that it, it's tough to have like a really big role in a Liam Cohen offense.
48:05If you don't bring much to the table in the passing game with how intricate his offense is like, that's another dimension to attack the defense with.
48:14And we saw that in Tampa Bay in 2024 with Bucky Irving and, and, and Rashad White.
48:19We saw it last year with Travis Etienne and we know that Basial Tootin is good in the pass game.
48:25So we, we, we, we don't know, like we know that Basial Tootin will have an opportunity.
48:31We don't know what he's going to do with it.
48:34Uh, and, and the Jags aren't even a hundred percent sure what he's going to do with it.
48:39If, if he is the prospect that a lot of people think that he is like this, this good explosive player, then
48:46he could run away with this opportunity. But if there are like severe vision problems, uh, for him and they are getting
48:53in these second and eights and second and sevens on a consistent basis, uh, with him back there, then, then we can
49:00see like much more of an even split or, or, or, or some more Chris Rodriguez there.
49:05Yeah. I don't have the, uh, Udinski, uh, yards over created yards created over expect expected in, in, in, in front of me.
49:13But what I do have is success rate from, you know, career success rate for both these players on the ground, just rushing the football.
49:21I didn't want to use passing because obviously I would, you know, it, first of all, with Chris Rodriguez is such a small sample size.
49:28Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. Right. We are, you know, making fun of his sample size at this particular point.
49:35Um, but they are both 58% for their career.
49:37Like, you know, that's that. And, you know, look, um, Tootin was 57.8.
49:42It's called 58% last year. Um, Chris Rodriguez on a different team, but was 58% and is 58.1 for his career.
49:48He had one season at 47, one at 74, whatever.
49:51All three season 58. Tootin's first year, 58. I'm not so sure that that means very much of anything.
49:57I just think that I was looking to see if there was a really big difference between what Tootin was able to do last year.
50:05And if he was kind of, you know, not because actually 58 is really good.
50:10You know, I see a lot of these guys.
50:13It's really good. So, so Rodriguez really good. Uh, just so you know, um, you know, 45 to 50, you see a
50:20lot of the times and it's acceptable. So for these guys to be at 58 was really good for both of them.
50:26So I, you know, I, I do think that that's kind of the thing is I think that they, if you put
50:33truth serum in, you know, in the front office and coaching staff of Jacksonville, I think they would say we're more sure
50:40that Chris Rodriguez can do what we ask of him, but we're also positive that he can't do any of the things
50:47that we could dream of, you know? Right. And so that's the basial Tootin thing.
50:52If he can do what they ask of him, he can also do everything they dream of, you know, all of the
50:59big plays, all of these, like just, Oh my God, how did that just happen?
51:03We just scored touchdown. We're on our own 20, you know, he gone, uh, he can do that.
51:09And so I think that's where the tantalizing part of basial Tootin is, is like, if he's just a good football player,
51:16like he just needs to be good. If he's good, he'll be dynamic.
51:20You know, for fantasy and that's where, you know, yeah, there's definitely some downside, but he's going to get his chance because
51:27as you point out in the past game, it's not like Chris Rodriguez is just going to cuck him and be like, listen, this is all mine player.
51:36That's not going to happen. Right. It's going to be, they're going to have some basial Tootin opportunity early on, even if
51:43they sort of lean on Chris Rodriguez early to sort of steady the ship, so to speak, basial is going to get his opportunities.
51:50And, you know, there's going to be a rebuy time, I think for basial, maybe even, you know, early week one, two,
51:57where maybe they don't play him quite as much, but I do think eventually he's going to see the field and he's going to make big plays.
52:06So that's kind of what I'm hoping for, but it sounds like there's still trepidation on, on, on, on the coaching side.
52:13I don't blame them. I would feel the same way.
52:16Yeah. No, no, no one has seen that like, oh, this, this guy is an RB one in the national football league.
52:23Like they, they think it's possible. They, they, they, they think it might be there, but like you said, they do know
52:29kind of what they're getting in Chris Rodriguez. You know, they're, they're, they're getting this kind of grinder.
52:35Uh, Liam Cohen has called them an added thump to the offense.
52:39I think we'll see a lot of Chris Rodriguez and their four minute offense when they're trying to salt games away, because
52:46that was a big thing for them last year where they weren't able to, there were some games where they weren't able to close it out.
52:54Uh, when, when they had the ball on offense and having a guy like that, where you're really kind of wearing the
53:01defense down over the course of the game, they go out, they draft Nate Berkacher in the second round as, as this,
53:08you know, good, um, uh, kind of blocking tight end.
53:11So you get in some heavier personnel and, and, and that last four minutes and you're like, all right, go get me four yards at a time.
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54:12Yep. Speaking of four yards at a time, you mentioned earlier the Jeremiah love situation.
54:17Just go. Just give me the Jeremiah love. I don't even have a question.
54:21I just want to hear where your brain is at with this.
54:25Yeah, they've been real weird in the way that they're talking about the backfield there.
54:30And again, it is this Mike LaFleur, Nathaniel Hackett thing of we're not overly gushing about any one guy or whatever.
54:36But, you know, a couple of things, you know, obviously they've talked about how impressive his hands are in the passing game
54:43and about these eye popping runs that he's made in camp that not many other running backs in the league are capable of.
54:50And then Mike LaFleur had these hot hand comments back in June where he said, quote, if Steph Curry's on fire and
54:57he's supposed to get a sub, you're not taking the hot hand out.
55:01And that's kind of the same approach you end up taking with a back, a back just like a basketball player or
55:08any football player can get into a rhythm. It's like just keep giving him the football like he's just feeling it right now.
55:16End quote. So a lot of people took this hot hand quote as a negative for Jeremiah love is like, oh, my God, no hot hand backfield.
55:24I think that's great for Jeremiah love. If you're asking me who the hottest hand is going to be in the backfield
55:31of Jeremiah love, Tyler Algier, James Connor, Trey Benson, Bam Knight, Corey Kiner.
55:35Like that's that's Jeremiah love, buddy. And if it's not, then they made a really terrible draft pick with a third overall pick.
55:42So, yeah, like if I know there's speculation on whose pick this was, was this LaFleur's pick?
55:48Was this the owner, Michael Bidwell's pick? If, if it was LaFleur's pick at three overall and you're paying them all this
55:54money, you can't put this guy in, in, in a, in a running back by committee.
55:59And if it was the owner's pick at three and he's forcing it on these guys and you're putting Jeremiah love in
56:06a committee, that's not going to be good for you either.
56:10So, yeah, like Tyler Algier is a fine running back.
56:13He's not even close to the talent that Jeremiah love is.
56:16And, and, and, and this is teams don't try to tank, especially coming out of the gate and like even mid season
56:23or whatever, like Mike, Michael floor is not going to be about that.
56:27Like he spent so much time with Sean McVay, like Sean McVay would not do that kind of thing.
56:33I, LaFleur is not going to do it either.
56:36I, they're, they're, they're going to play their best players and Jeremiah love his head and shoulders above the rest of this backfield, man.
56:44That's so good. I totally agree. I couldn't imagine spending the third pick of the draft and then not treating him like
56:51you're paying him because you're paying them like Bijon and Gibbs.
56:54Yeah. And so, so, so fucking play them like that.
56:57Like that's, that means that's the centerpiece of your supposed offense.
57:01Now I, I, you know, people are talking about the landing spot and not like, I'm like, also no, this is the
57:08team that ran 700 routes for Michael Wilson last year or whatever.
57:11You know, this is a, a, a, a team that should be behind and, and, and in games where they need to score and high paced.
57:20And that's fine. I don't want a team that like runs it every day.
57:24I don't want, I don't want them playing in Pittsburgh or something where it's like Aaron Rogers, slow it down, hand it to him.
57:31You know, it's like, Oh my God, when are we ever going to do anything?
57:36It's like, you know, 13 to three late in the third quarter.
57:40You're just like gouging your eyes out. Like, I don't want that.
57:44I'm okay with 34 to 20 late in the third quarter where they're like, still going to keep playing.
57:50Let's, let's link it. Let's swing it. Well, then at that point, he's going to get a lot of stuff and it's
57:57going to be a lot of open field prevent defense yards and chunks stuff.
58:01I'm okay with all of that, you know? And yeah, he's of course going to be spelled every, I've said this so many times, Greg, you'll on this.
58:10It's like every single backfield in the NFL has four guys in it or something, you know, everybody's got a backup, you
58:17know, like this, you know, this thing where it's like, Oh, Chris Rodriguez is bad news for basial too.
58:23I'm like, is he, I mean, I could think of 25 guys in the NFL would be worse news.
58:29You know? So I always think that that's something that people jump to, but Jeremiah love clearly the best.
58:35Hey, by the way, before we got a few that we're going to hit off rapid fire because I want to hear
58:41from you on this, but before we even get to that, we're going to, we're going to let this one soak in
58:48one of our best calls and we have, well, it hasn't won yet, but it's going to win.
58:54One of our best calls this year has been Terrence Ferguson again, filed under travel was right.
58:59Hashtag travels, right? This Terrence Ferguson situation. I am so excited about, I really do believe that he's going to have a
59:06pretty monster season, especially in accordance to ADP and where he's going and projections and everything.
59:11I really do see serious upside, especially in best ball because maybe one week to the other, it's a little up and
59:18down as it is in a McVay offense, particularly.
59:21Um, but I think Terrence Ferguson holds the keys to many, many fantasy wins.
59:25Uh, what are your thoughts about that big call?
59:28Back in February, Sean McVay said, I think Terrence Ferguson is a total stud.
59:33I think the future is incredibly bright. He's got the ability to basically play every skill position on our offense.
59:39That's every receiver spot. That's every tight end spot.
59:42That's a real credit to his overall maturity, his intelligence, his football instincts and makeup.
59:46I think he played with great toughness and I think the best is yet to come.
59:51He's got an incredibly high ceiling, particularly as a receiver where he can be able to make plays short, intermediate and down the field.
59:59He can win from different locations, whether that's attached in the slot or out wide.
60:04I'm really, really excited about him. And then the other day in an interview with Greg Rosenthal and Jordan Rodrigue on NFL
60:11daily, McVay comped Terrence Ferguson to Travis Kelsey saying his feet are always close to the ground.
60:16He's kind of just able to skate. He's got good natural ability to work edges on people.
60:21And then also talked about something that I've been saying for a little while, which is we saw this really high a
60:28dot for, for Ferguson last year, over 18 yards per, um, per attempt for him at average depth of target for him.
60:35And, uh, but coming out of college, he, he led college football in, uh, in yak with, uh, with nine yards after the catch, uh, average.
60:43And McVay in, in this interview with, um, with, with, uh, Rosenthal and Rodrigue said that, yeah, we, we didn't really tap
60:50into that last year, but that's on the table.
60:53And we want to tap into that this year.
60:56So I think that's very bullish. They do still talk about, you know, the rest of the tight end room, how like,
61:03uh, what, what they love about it is the versatility that each guy in that room is, is, is, is, is good in the passing game.
61:11And they're also, uh, very able to, to block at the point of attack, uh, in, in the run game and how
61:18they're, you know, kind of interchangeable these guys. But I think it's pretty clear that Terrence Ferguson is like the best weapon in the passing game for them.
61:27And he actually did great out as, as really good as a blocker last year.
61:31And they did play him out wide. They did put him in the slot.
61:36They did play him in line as well. So, so he's comfortable in all those spots.
61:41They're comfortable with him and all those spots. And yeah, I think, I think he could be like a pretty nice weapon for them this year.
61:49Yeah. I mean, uh, you know, don't tell me that, uh, Devante Adams or Puka Nakua could get hurt too.
61:55I mean, obviously we don't want to see that at all, but you know, we've seen the way that they play, uh,
62:02and the age that we're seeing Devante at. I mean, look, injuries can happen.
62:06This team should be a high scoring unit. And I look at this Terrence Ferguson situation, a little like I saw George Kittle after his first year.
62:15And a little like I saw Trey McBride after his first year where neither one of them was a year one, like clear, you know, answer.
62:23A lot of people were actually down on Trey McBride going into year two.
62:27And I was like, I think he's going to be really good.
62:31But I'm, I'm, I'm not so sure that we're going to see Trey McBride numbers from Terrence Ferguson nor George Kittle for that matter.
62:39But I do think that it's one of those riddles where if Terrence Ferguson is actually good, he's going to have a monster season.
62:46It's only if he's not good. Well, of course then it doesn't matter.
62:50But I think that the way that they're sort of positioned, it's sort of like he's the clear number three target on that team.
62:58I don't even think there's really another person you could make an argument for unless again, Terrence Ferguson just isn't good, which then the whole thing's moot.
63:06It doesn't really matter. But, you know, there's sometimes there's a player can be good and you're like, yeah, we're just, there's no room.
63:14He doesn't get on the field because of, you know, like you said with Kohler and, you know, Andrews and likely or something.
63:21I'm not suggesting that Kohler is Ferguson, but to the point, right, where sometimes it's just sort of, I don't care how good this guy is.
63:29There's no spot for this to really work out the complete opposite, in my opinion, with, with Ferguson, especially as you point
63:36out the 12 and 13 personnel they play. You know, he could be on the field, you know, quite a bit if that's the case.
63:44He doesn't have to, you know, wait for, you know, a 12 personnel situation that is rarely there because he's a slot only guy.
63:52As they point out, he can play every position.
63:54I think this is a huge, huge green flag for Terrence Ferguson.
63:58I'm going to hit you with a couple of, you know, sort of lightning round, if you will.
64:04I know I got, I know I said an hour, but I'm not good at this.
64:09I'm really bad. I'm not professional. I just love it.
64:12Overtime lightning round for you. You touched on him earlier.
64:15Just give me some Harold Fannin. Yeah, Todd Munkin on July 29th was asked how Harold Fannin Jr.
64:21looks and will he be a focal point of what Munkin is trying to do?
64:26And Todd Munkin turned into the Kool-Aid man and gave this emphatic, oh yeah, said, man, is he hard to tackle?
64:32I think you get him the ball and he's a hard guy to bring down.
64:37I think he's powerful, powerful man and only going to get better.
64:41They had asked him at one point this offseason if he reminds him of anyone that Munkin has coached in the past.
64:47And Munkin said Brock Bowers and the way that they move when the ball is in their hands.
64:53Yeah, he was a smash last year and he's kind of shaping up to be another smash this year.
64:59I love it so much. Obviously, this was my guy coming out.
65:03So love it. But look, Elijah Surratt, if you have any Jacoby Lane that ties to him, go right ahead.
65:09But I think Surratt has been a player that I've kind of cautiously optimistic despite the offense.
65:14What are your thoughts? Yes, Surratt. General Manager Eric DaCosta on draft night said, we think he's really, really good inside.
65:21Really a good back shoulder fade type of receiver.
65:24Physical. We just think he's a really good fit for what we want to do offensively.
65:29And then Head Coach Jesse Minter in a July 23rd interview said, you're going to need guys that can do the dirty work, that can make clutch plays.
65:38And then later he's talking about Elijah Surratt and says the toughness that he plays with and the clutch plays that the guy makes.
65:45So that's pretty good. They have talked about Jacoby Lane and what he brings to them as a red zone threat, as a big bodied kind of guy.
65:54How Lamar Jackson hasn't really had like a big bodied downfield or like big red zone threat receiver in a while.
66:01And they do like that. Obviously, he's making some some splash plays in camp.
66:05So that's another guy to keep an eye on there.
66:08Hey, Greg, you know, I would argue that that player in the past has been Isaiah Likely for Lamar Jackson, where they play a lot of 12.
66:17They'd have Bateman's, you know, stretching. Zay never leaves the field.
66:20Andrews and maybe Likely and Likely would play sort of slot move and get to the back of the end zone and make those.
66:28You can sort of see it already happen. It's happened to a bunch.
66:32The one where he stepped out of bounds to almost win the game, you know, kind of comes to mind as super vivid.
66:39But But Likely was making those plays. I wonder now without Kohler, without Likely, if they go a little bit more 11 personnel.
66:46But that Surratt and Jacoby Lane sort of play a little bit of that Isaiah Likely role where they're making plays.
66:53As you're as you're pointing out, what are your thoughts?
66:56Yeah, I think that's very possible. I do know they're they're still like pretty big on Rashad Bateman, but it does seem like they're going to play 11.
67:05They're talking about, you know, these receivers inside and how it's a good fit.
67:09So inside receiver, good fit. That's 11 personnel. Right.
67:12We're talking about about the slot there. So obviously, Zay Flowers, top guy.
67:16And then Rashad Bateman should figure in quite a bit there.
67:19You know, maybe we see some some Surratt in the slot.
67:23Maybe we see some Jacoby Lane come in and play at X.
67:27And then they move Rashad Bateman inside. Yeah, Bateman's been talking about how he's moving around in Declan Doyle's offense this year.
67:34So we could see a little bit of mix and match there.
67:37Yeah, that's kind of that's kind of what I'm thinking.
67:40And I think it's going to be a little bit unrecognizable in that way is that we're going to see, I think,
67:47more wide receivers on the field, which I think is totally fine for for Lamar to have more space.
67:53I like that lighter players that he can run over a bit, too, because he's fucking badass.
67:59Let's go. Right. Look, I was kind of bullish early on with Travis Etienne or however you say his name now.
68:05I'm not I'm not calling him Travis Etienne. I just can't do it.
68:09It's just too much for me. I'll say it in French, Etienne.
68:13But I mean, say it in whatever the hell language that is.
68:17Travis can't call me HN versus Alvin Kamara now.
68:20Kamara stays, which I didn't think was going to happen.
68:23I thought he'd either retire or kind of get a moonlighting gig with, you know, Kansas City or something, you know, just sort of one of those numbers.
68:32That's kind of what I anticipated. That didn't happen.
68:34He's there. And I think this is my take.
68:37Tell me if I'm wrong. I think that Kamara now takes enough away from Etienne where it limits some of the perceived
68:44upside that I may have had in this offense.
68:47What are your thoughts with this whole situation? They haven't really talked about the role for for Kamara.
68:53And they I mean, they haven't really talked a ton about the split in this backfield.
68:58You know, Kelly Moore has talked about how they've seen the explosiveness with Travis Etienne.
69:02But because of his smarts and his football IQ, he can he can truly play every down any down.
69:08He can play a really valuable role in that situation where you're not rotating as much and talked about how he thought
69:15that he did such a phenomenal job. And Liam Cohen's system last year.
69:19And there's some similarities in our system of what we're asking him to do, what we saw him do last year.
69:26All right. Two more. But before we do that, before we do that, thank you so much for being here, brother.
69:33I appreciate you. I really mean it. What I said at the outset that I think you have a tremendous amount of
69:39value for gamers and especially dynasty gamers. So I cannot stress enough.
69:43Go to Coach Beak Index and subscribe and just watch and follow.
69:47And I actually would say it this way. There are some people I follow that I'm just like, yeah, if they show
69:54up on my page where I laugh and look at it or read it.
69:58I go to your page specifically. I don't do a lot of them.
70:02And I read everything on there. And I'm like, all right, I just need to make sure that I know everything that
70:09you guys are putting out and that you're doing.
70:12So I think you're a huge value. So thank you for that.
70:16Appreciate it. Thank you so much. Yeah. Any other tell them what to do type of thing?
70:21You know, go subscribe or, you know, anything I left off the table.
70:25Yeah, no. Coach Beak Index Discord is where it's all at.
70:29Yeah. The Twitter is just like I'll tweet something out every other day maybe, every once in a while of some stuff.
70:36But the Coach Beak Index Discord is, I mean, right now it's from when I get up in the morning to when I go to bed at night.
70:44I'm just watching pressers and putting notes in there.
70:47It's over 4,000 pressers and media hits per year.
70:50It's an insane amount of information. Look at that.
70:53I mean, come on now, guys. Get in the Discord then, obviously.
70:57Yeah, I didn't mention that. So there you go.
70:59Thank you. All right. Couple to go up. Look, I have been so skeptical of this Bucky Irving situation.
71:05It is like it's like a soap opera. So give us some give us some give us some some some some some red meat, if you will.
71:14Yeah. Back in March, head coach Todd Bowles was asked whether there will be a competition for RB1.
71:20Bowles said Bucky Irving is number one. Obviously, Kenneth Gainwell is 1B.
71:23I think it'll be a great one to punch, but Bucky will be the starter for sure.
71:29And then offensive coordinator Zach Robinson the other day called him a stud, said that the way he runs the football and
71:36his feet are always in the ground. So he's able always able to change direction that obviously keeps him so balanced to break tackles.
71:43The versatility he has in the pass game run game.
71:46He's done a great job. It's been a blast seeing him cut some of these runs.
71:51Also earlier in the offseason, Zach Robinson talked about how much meat he thought there was on the bone for Bucky Irving
71:58in the pass game compared to last year. And then we also know that Zach Robinson and Liam Cohen, very good friends.
72:05Zach Robinson said that they now that their teams are not playing each other this year, that they've been talking almost every
72:12other day and that he has talked to Cohen about the personnel there in Tampa Bay in that 2024 offense that Cohen
72:19was really cooking with and how to kind of best utilize these guys.
72:23So that all seems pretty good for Bucky, who had a good 2024.
72:27I was going to say, maybe this is a zig when everybody else is zagging.
72:32I've been a little bit scared of Bucky, but maybe that's getting a little tired.
72:36Maybe there's something there where the ADP, certainly the dynasty price, there's a lot of sellers, not a lot of buyers.
72:43Maybe it's a Bucky buy situation and I'm ready to swing back the other way.
72:48I think the pendulum is always swinging. We see the sort of negative comments, the the strange this, the injuries, the Kenny
72:55gain well, the right sort of the negative inputs.
72:58And then all of a sudden we hear the coach speak.
73:01There's some positive inputs. And less we forget that Bucky was dope.
73:05Yeah, he was great, man. Maybe that's it. All right.
73:08Well, I'll do this one. Last one. This is a dynasty show.
73:12Give me Nick Singleton. Just give me Nick Singleton.
73:14Tell me like because I guess at the end of the day is like Nick Singleton is a fifth round rookie pick
73:21on a team that may not even be good where he's behind some veterans who are probably OK and probably will never let him play.
73:29That's like the probable outcome here. But maybe I'm wrong.
73:32Tell me what's going on. So on June 11th, they asked Robert Sala what he's seen from Nick Singleton so far in OTAs.
73:40And how is he finding a role alongside Tony Pollard and TyJ Spears?
73:44Sala said, quote, early, obviously big back fast. He's learning it, learning it all.
73:48He's got a long way to go from that regard, like all rookies do.
73:52But to be clear, Tony and TyJ are the bell cows of this football team.
73:57And Nick's got to compete his way in to find his way into that group.
74:02End quote. And then Sala also spoke on August 6th about how they think that they're going to be able to expand TyJ Spears role this season.
74:10So probably not going to be a 2026 hit.
74:13But, you know, Tony Pollard getting older. TyJ Spears doesn't have ACLs and that arthritis is going to start hitting his knees in the not too distant future.
74:22And Singleton, obviously, on a rookie contract is going to be around there for a while.
74:27So maybe maybe when we see a lot of Pollard and Spears this year, then maybe maybe you can get Nick Singleton kind of cheap.
74:35Maybe you try to get him cheap early in the season.
74:38We know that TyJ Spears has a bit of trouble holding up health wise.
74:43And obviously, like he can be a guy who breaks down at some point this season.
74:48So maybe try to kind of capitalize early when when when Singleton's not getting much run.
74:53Yeah, we can't go out on a bummer. So we're going to go out on the high note.
74:58We're going to do one more. We're going to Denver Dobbins, Jonah Coleman and and RJ Harvey all tied together at the hip.
75:06It's funny because I feel like if you ask analysts and you may have noticed this, everybody likes everybody.
75:12There's I love Dobbins. I love Jonah Coleman and RJ Harvey.
75:15So good. It's like someone's going to lose their big time, whether it be by hook or crook, whether it's Dobbins get
75:22hurt and the other two step up or Dobbins is a monster and one of the other two is a nobody like
75:29somehow, some way, not all three guaranteed. Not all three can hit.
75:33Yeah, I mean, they do really love J.K. Dobbins.
75:35Sean Payton last year. I remember this quote. He had really stuck out in my mind where they were asking him what he liked about J.K.
75:44Dobbins. And he says, well, he just has some of that kind of special spaghetti sauce to his game where where he's
75:50like his vision is so good and he's always finding hidden yards.
75:54Right. He's always getting more yards than you would expect on a play.
75:58Their general manager, George Patton, Payton, sorry, talked earlier this offseason about how Dobbins immediately changed the building as soon as he
76:05walked in, how he was a top four rusher in the league last year when he got hurt.
76:11And then Sean Payton has referred to him multiple times as a compound multiplier.
76:15Also said on July 31st that he had strong or that the organization had strong opinions about re-signing him, how he was
76:22a big part of why we won 14 games last year, I believe in the player a lot.
76:28And they've been talking. R.J. Harvey is kind of like some pass role, pass game role for him this year.
76:34Obviously, he's exciting in the pass game, still working on the pass protection a little bit.
76:39They do seem to be liking Jonah Coleman as a kind of well-rounded player for them.
76:44Talking about what a powerful runner he is as well.
76:47We know that Sean Payton was into Audrick Essmann.
76:50For this reason of like, you know, he's this well-built, like strong runner that didn't quite work out because Essmann wasn't that good of a player.
76:58But he's taking another shot now on Jonah Coleman trying to kind of being a better version of that.
77:04I think by all accounts, Jonah Coleman had a more well-rounded profile than Audrick Essmann.
77:09I mean, Essmann was a bowling ball. I mean, he was a tough guy to bring down in college and all that.
77:16But I think Jonah Coleman just is like that, you know, jack of all trades, master of none.
77:22And I think the big one that you said, and I heard, I'm pretty sure it was, you know, your site that
77:28I had seen it on was the Jonah Coleman, you know, is the pass blocker.
77:33And that is terrifying. If you're an R.J. Harvey stand, I look, the whole thing about R.J.
77:38Harvey is crazy, Greg, because pre NFL draft, pre NFL draft, the whole off season, I was like, dude, this kid, R.J.
77:45Harvey is dope. He's amazing. I love him. R.J.
77:48Harvey is like my RB five or six in this class.
77:52I'm like, Mr. R.J. Harvey. Then he goes in the second round of Denver.
77:56I'm like, that's a little early. Like, he's that good.
77:59And now I'm like the R.J. Harvey hater. And I mean, I guess it goes back to the old Matthew Barry.
78:06I don't hate players. I hate ADPs. Like, you know, when I thought he was an also random, like, no way, this kid's good.
78:13Get them in your, you know, get them up, move them up.
78:17And then when they moved him to second round rookie, I mean, I'm like, I'm not so sure about all that now
78:24with everything that that's gone on, look, unless Dobbins gets hurt, if that happens, everything changed.
78:29But if Dobbins is healthy, which God bless us, we all, including J.K.
78:33Dobbins deserve a healthy J.K. Dobbins season because he is fucking awesome, by the way.
78:38So that's the other thing that people don't necessarily remember is that J.K.
78:42Dobbins is awesome. He's an elite running back who got hurt so many times that his physical gifts have been drained, but he's still awesome.
78:50The vision is still there. That doesn't go away.
78:53And that, and it goes a long way for, for, for a runner in the NFL.
78:58Even, even, even if your talents are starting to be sapped a little bit, we see kind of some long in the
79:04tooth running backs who like vision was always one of their big things.
79:09And they're able to stick around for a little bit longer because of that.
79:13Absolutely. Absolutely. Well, we're not going to stick around any longer because of it today, because you got to go, we got to go.
79:20Hey man, I can talk to you literally for hours.
79:24And that's why the discord is popping. You go in there and, and get everything that Greg and his team are doing
79:31all day long and start winning on the edges.
79:33Thank you so much, Greg. I appreciate you. Thank you so much for the invite.
79:38This was a blast, man. Absolutely, brother. Thank you so much.
79:42All right. On behalf of everybody here at undrafted on behalf of everybody here at OTC, on behalf of the greatest podcast
79:48producer and team the world has ever known, Mr.
79:51Michael P. Duncan and Smitty, you have been joined by the brain, Mr.
79:55Greg brainos. I am Jax Falcone and we are out.
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