Expert Fantasy Football Drafts

Gone from the Eagles; context for why Nico Collins is preferred over DeVonta Smith due to less target competition in Philadelphia.

Dealing with swelling in his knee. Davis Mattek expresses skepticism about chronic knee injuries, particularly when the same knee or soft tissue is repeatedly injured, noting this pattern makes him wary of Gibson's durability. While Mattek acknowledges Gibson 'would maybe be a little bit interesting' for certain teams, the recurring knee issue is a significant concern that tempers enthusiasm.

Baker Mayfield is playing on a one-year contract this year, which provides motivation to perform; however, his injury history with the Cleveland Browns—where he was let go after playing through an injury—suggests he may not be motivated to play through injuries, creating uncertainty around his durability and availability.

Corum significantly increased his snap share over the back half of the season, going from approximately 20% to 35-46% in later weeks, indicating growing role and opportunity in the offense.

Davis Mattek projects Braelon Allen's ADP to rise significantly by next Tuesday, surpassing Cam Akers and potentially reaching the Javante Williams/Kairen Williams range in drafts, indicating strong upside and undervaluation at current ADP.

The source expressed a desire to acquire Brian Thomas Jr. in the draft, indicating he was a target at the time of the draft but was not available at the desired pick.

Bucky Irving is back at Tampa Bay Buccaneers practice with no limitations after shoulder and foot injuries last fall; the shoulder injury required surgery but Todd Bowles said Irving feels fine, feels great, and is at full speed and full go with no easing back needed when pads come on.

Davis Mattek references a video about CJ Stroud that he describes as 'so brutal' and 'really brutal,' suggesting significant concerns about Stroud's draft performance or outlook.

The source selected Caleb Williams in the draft, indicating confidence in his fantasy value and role as a starting quarterback.

Expected to be surpassed in ADP by Braelon Allen by next Tuesday; used as a benchmark for Allen's projected ADP rise.

Rodriguez stated plan is to return for week one, which Davis Mattek interprets as a bearish sign indicating he will not practice much during the offseason; limited preparation raises concerns about his readiness and draft value. Additionally, Rodriguez does not appear close to returning for the Jacksonville Jaguars, described as the biggest news from the day, suggesting extended absence.

Mattek expresses serious durability concerns about Christian Kirk, noting he is already hurt with a calf injury as of late July and is going undrafted. Kirk has a pattern of missing games year-over-year: 11 games last year, 8 games the year before. Mattek states 'he just gets injured every year' and acknowledges Kirk's injury history is 'the big issue here.' Mattek predicts Kirk will not play this season, making him unavailable for fantasy purposes.

Davis Mattek expresses confidence in McCaffrey's health and usage, noting he is 'absolutely cruising' and seems unaffected by an apparent scheme or injury concern that has impacted other players. Mattek projects McCaffrey will 'catch a bazillion passes,' indicating high expected target volume and a favorable role in the offense.

Mattek believes Jonathan Brooks should be going ahead of Chuba Hubbard in draft rankings, implying Hubbard is overvalued relative to Brooks in the current market.

If Roman Burrow is fully healthy, Davis Mattek projects target share splits: Burrow 26%, Colston Loveland 22%, and Kmet 20%, indicating Kmet is expected to receive a minority share of targets in the offense.

Davis Mattek projects Colston Loveland for 22% target share in the Bears offense. Most fantasy football analysts believe Loveland will lead the team in targets, though Mattek's own analysis has Luther Burden leading at 25-26%. Loveland is positioned as a key target-share candidate in Chicago's passing game.

Expected to receive contract extension and play significant snaps in 12-personnel packages; this expanded tight end role will squeeze WR3 opportunities league-wide. Mattek expresses deep interest in Washington, noting he is 'dreaming about' Washington's touchdown share potential, indicating he views Washington as an undervalued tight end with breakout upside in the touchdown market.

Drafted as part of a strong draft haul alongside Bejian Robinson, Malik Neighbors, Nico Collins, and Luther Burton; part of a strategy to build championship equity.

Mattek notes that a 49ers starting lineup featuring DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham, and Christian Kirk is heading in a direction that is not palatable for the 49ers' health due to the team's injury crisis. Mattek describes the 49ers as decimated by injuries affecting key players.

Mattek describes Deebo as 'a really good pick here,' indicating he views Deebo as solid value at that draft position, though he ultimately passes on him to take another player. Potential risk: if he signs with San Francisco, he would cannibalize targets and touches with Deon Stribbling.

Underrated due to size perception; won the Heisman Trophy as a receiver and is described as 'built different.' Davis Mattek notes he's 'a little underrated because he's small' and positions him as an ADP gift relative to Nico Collins, given that AJ Brown is gone from the Eagles and the team drafted other receivers, reducing target competition.

Selected in the draft by the source, indicating he is considered a viable pick at that draft position.

Mattek selects Harold Fannon Jr. as his first tight end in the draft, indicating he views him as a preferred tight end option at that draft position and has confidence in his role and availability.

Jamar Chase had only 8 receiving touchdowns despite being a target leader in the NFL; positioned as part of a broader trend where elite wide receivers underperformed in touchdown scoring last year, suggesting potential positive regression opportunity.

Year two player Jaylen Coker posted 1.81 yards per route run and had a strong playoff game with 21 points against Dallas as a rookie. The source views him as a solid player despite some skepticism from others, suggesting he has underrated upside for year two.

The source selected Javante Williams as part of his core opening draft, pairing him with Saquon Barkley, Justin Jefferson, and Jaylen Waddle, indicating confidence in his role and value at his draft position.

The source is drafting Javonte Williams in this expert fantasy football draft, indicating confidence in his role and value at his current draft position.

The source selected Jaylen Waddle as part of his core opening draft, pairing him with Saquon Barkley, Justin Jefferson, and Javante Williams, indicating confidence in his role and value at his draft position.

Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle are both handling all first-team running back work for the Pittsburgh Steelers with alternating touches; the split appears relatively equal, with Warren getting the first touch yesterday and Dowdle today, suggesting neither has differentiated yet and the workload will remain split until one emerges in season.

Davis Mattek cites Joe Mixon as evidence that late-round running backs can still lead to championship success. A player named Goods won a championship despite drafting Mixon around pick 50, demonstrating that RB value can be found in later rounds.

Paired with Justin Jefferson in a draft; noted as an 'insane' pairing alongside Walker, Cook, and Barkley.

Davis Mattek is buying the Jonathan Brooks narrative as this year's riser who has not risen enough in ADP. Mattek believes Brooks should be going ahead of Chuba Hubbard and is enthusiastically committed to the pick, comparing himself to a moth to a flame. Mattek views Brooks as the riser positioned as a breakout candidate and has selected him in multiple draft formats, indicating confidence in his value at that draft position.

Jordan Tyson is already practicing back-to-back days, indicating his hamstring injury has not been severely limiting during training camp, suggesting a quick return to full availability.

Davis Mattek explicitly states he would not have drafted Josh Allen at picks 34-39, where he was selected alongside Kairen Williams in a draft criticized as a poor strategy.

Justin Herbert is dealing on day two of Chargers camp, hitting receivers down the left sideline early in training camp; Davis Mattek expressed approval with 'that is what I love to hear,' signaling positive early-season form and readiness.

Only 2 receiving touchdowns despite being a target leader in the NFL; positioned as a prime example of elite wide receiver underperformance in touchdown scoring last year, suggesting significant positive regression potential. At pick 12 in a running back premium format, Jefferson is described as 'too good to pass up'—chalk selection.

Buzz around Katron Allen stems from concerns about Jory Crosby-Merritt's quality; the source disagrees with the narrative that Crosby-Merritt is not good, suggesting Katron Allen's upside may be overstated relative to the backup running back role.

Davis Mattek regrets not drafting another player ahead of Shakir, indicating he views Shakir as overvalued or a draft mistake relative to alternatives available at that point.

Kyler Murray and Jordan Addison have spent the last two months this offseason working out together, suggesting increased chemistry and connection heading into the season.

Davis Mattek projects Luther Burden III for 25-26% target share, leading the Bears in targets. Most fantasy football analysts disagree and expect Colston Loveland (22% projected) to lead instead. Mattek explicitly disagrees with analysts who think Burden is being overdrafted, positioning him as undervalued relative to consensus despite the contrarian view.

Taking first-team reps as candidate for outside WR role with Las Vegas Raiders; Davis Mattek suggests round 20 consideration on DraftKings as potential value.

The source selected Michael Pittman Jr. in the draft with confidence, using the phrase 'keep printing money' to indicate strong conviction in his value and production potential.

Davis Mattek prefers Nico Collins over DeVonta Smith as a value pick: Collins is a better player with less target competition in Houston and has shown a more concerted profile of target-earning. Collins is positioned as an ADP gift despite hamstring injury history. The source notes that with AJ Brown gone from Philadelphia, DeVonta Smith faces more crowded target competition, making Collins the superior value at similar ADP.

Mattek notes that a 49ers starting lineup featuring DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham, and Christian Kirk is heading in a direction that is not palatable for the 49ers' health due to the team's injury crisis. Mattek describes the 49ers as decimated by injuries affecting key players.

The source has fully capitulated on Parker Washington and is no longer pursuing him in drafts, indicating a shift away from targeting him due to disappointing performance or role concerns.

Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren are both handling all first-team running back work for the Pittsburgh Steelers with alternating touches; the split appears relatively equal, with Dowdle getting the first touch today and Warren yesterday, suggesting neither has differentiated yet and the workload will remain split until one emerges.

Rome Odunze clarified his earlier 'new normal' quote about his foot injury, stating his foot feels great and amazing and he is completely fine with no lingering concerns. The source had been undervaluing Odunze due to health concerns, but this update suggests that health-based discount may be unjustified. Matt Harmon compares Rome's upside to DeVonta Adams because of how he moves, a meaningful comparison given that Burks doesn't play like St. Brown physically, yet both had the same average depth of target (7.6) in their rookie years, suggesting Rome could be used in similar high-value ways despite different playing styles.

At pick 12 in a running back premium format, Saquon Barkley is selected as chalk; Mattek pairs him with Justin Jefferson as a core opening, indicating confidence in Barkley as a foundational roster piece in tournament-style fantasy formats.

Stefon Diggs would not have crossed paths with Kyle Shanahan during his tenure in Minnesota, as Diggs was there under Mike Zimmer and then went to the Bills; the only potential overlap would be through Bobby Slowick (Shanahan tree) or Norv Turner, but no direct Shanahan connection exists.

Davis Mattek affirmed that Stefan Diggs is better than Keenan Allen at the current moment, independent of ADP considerations, indicating positive outlook on Diggs' relative value and performance trajectory.

Tank Dell and Jeremy Bernard are positioned as an easy double-tap in rounds 17–18, suggesting both are strong value picks in that range for this format; Dell was also selected in the source's survival draft, indicating confidence in him as a wide receiver option in tournament-style fantasy formats.

Ferguson's ADP will probably be pretty high next year because Kobe Parkinson probably won't be on the team; even if Ferguson is not that good next year, he's probably going to be jammed up with draft capital. The source guarantees that his ADP number is going way down in a couple weeks.

Travis Hunter played significantly more snaps on defense than on offense on day two of training camp, suggesting a defensive-heavy role allocation early in camp.

Davis Mattek notes that Kelce's exposure in the draft 'was not looking great,' indicating he views Kelce as overvalued or a poor value at his draft position.

The source predicts Tyreek Hill will play football this year but not until later in the season, likely signing in November and creating late-season chaos. Hill is not returning to the New Orleans Saints, with multiple players lobbying for him to sign with the Denver Broncos; if he lands there, it would cannibalize targets for other Broncos receivers. The source states 'Someone is going to get wrecked by Tyreek signing in November,' indicating Hill will 'definitely ruin someone later on' due to the timing and team uncertainty.

Mattek notes that the Falcons are running a lot of 12 and 13 personnel, which is 'not particularly great' for Branch's fantasy outlook, suggesting the offensive scheme limits his usage and opportunity.