Fantasy Football Friday

Alec Pierce's training camp performance has been positive and stands out as the best thing from recent quantitative rankings for Davis Mattek, who has significant portfolio exposure (30% of Josh Downs). Pierce is positioned as a better value target than Jalin Stribbling in the mid-rounds.

Davis Mattek selects Blake Corum as a breakout candidate, noting 'the drum beat is getting loud' around him. Mattek also identifies Corum as a strong answer to which non-injured players would move up most in rankings if guaranteed to play every game, suggesting durability concerns are currently limiting his draft stock.

The source mentions Brian Thomas Jr. at pick 58 in a draft context, but does not provide a specific take or valuation stance.

Davis Mattek lists Cade Otton as one of his favorite value picks in the eliminator contest, indicating strong confidence in his draft value.

Davis Mattek states that taking Caleb Williams over Daniel Jones and Hertz 'is not backed up by the mathematics, but it's not crazy,' while expressing comfort making big bets on the Bears offense this year. This indicates conviction in Williams' fantasy upside despite projection disagreement with standard models.

Davis Mattek describes Calvin Ridley as 'a pretty gnarly wide receiver' with potential dual-position value, noting 'Ridley maybe should have been a running back.' Earlier concerns about Ridley missing training camp were resolved after verification showed he attended camp and performed well—he was back day two after missing day one with a stomach bug, displaying strong hands and good route running. Mattek assessed him as 'probably fine' after reviewing camp footage.

Davis Mattek acquired Cam Ward at pick 166, three rounds after his ADP of 126, expressing satisfaction with the discount: 'I just got Cam Ward three rounds after ADP. I mean, don't get me I'm not mad about it.' This represents a significant value opportunity, with Ward falling substantially below his average draft position.

Chris Godwin is selected as a wide receiver in the source's draft construction, indicating he is being considered as a viable roster option in the current draft context. The source selected Chris Godwin as a wide receiver in a single-entry Corgi draft, indicating confidence in the player's value at that draft position.

Davis Mattek expresses strong skepticism about Chris Rodriguez's draft value, asking rhetorically 'Who is still taking Chris Rodriguez? I'd like to I'd like to meet the guy still taking Chris Rodriguez,' indicating the source views him as overvalued or a poor draft target. Additionally, Mattek estimates approximately 30% probability that Chris Rodriguez out-carries Jaylen Toutin without an injury occurring, noting that one of the two running backs currently has a broken foot.

Christian Kirk is already injured, which impacts the 49ers receiver depth and affects Jalin Stribbling's role in the offense.

Davis Mattek expresses comfort with Christian McCaffrey's value proposition and notes that even if McCaffrey played all 17 games, he would still prefer Gibbs over him. Mattek estimates McCaffrey at pick 102 in PPR if guaranteed to play all 17 games, and projects him at 102 fantasy points for a full season.

Davis Mattek identifies Cyrus Allen as 'interesting' at round 18 ADP, noting that round 18 picks are 'so flat,' suggesting value at that draft position; the source later clarifies that Allen would cannibalize Xavier Worthy's role rather than Taekwon's.

Davis Mattek lists Dalton Schultz as one of his favorite value picks in the eliminator contest, indicating strong confidence in his draft value.

Davis Mattek moved Deebo Samuel up to 130 in his rankings on flockfantasy.com and has him ranked 13th overall with an ADP of 125, while current market ADP is 150, indicating Deebo is undervalued. Mattek signed a one-year, $7 million deal with the 49ers; Mattek thinks Deebo is still a pretty good pick even at elevated price and prefers him to Keenan Allen in the 10th round. At 23% of his old price, Deebo feels very good. Mattek's quantitative model projects Deebo for 80 targets, 55 receptions, 735 yards, and four touchdowns, but he would take the under on those numbers. Mattek selected Deebo in his draft at pick 132, indicating he views Deebo as appropriately valued at that ADP. With 218 teams (12.9% exposure) at $1,656 salary, he represents good value; the Niners signing him, especially with Pierce Hall's injury, created an ideal landing spot for his fantasy value.

Davis Mattek expresses severe skepticism about Deshaun Watson's 2025 outlook. He does not believe in a Watson resurgence season, stating 'I don't think it happens. I think even if Watson starts a season, he's gonna be terrible.' Mattek cites Watson's 2021 EPA per play as 'terrible' and 'god awful,' predicting he will be 'benched with an absolute swiftness.' He also questions Watson's durability, asking 'how many games do you think Deshaun Watson is going to play? Like four, five.' Mattek has Watson at 82 teams for $469 in his portfolio, indicating minimal exposure.

The source notes Drake May was selected at pick 42 in a mock draft, observing the early quarterback selection without explicit positive or negative commentary.

Davis Mattek prefers Dylan Samson over Chimera despite the two being drafted consecutively, suggesting Samson offers better value at a similar ADP.

Emanuel Wilson is not a factor in the Seahawks backfield competition; Davis Mattek has not heard his name mentioned once in relation to the lead-back situation, suggesting he is out of the picture with Jadarian Price taking the primary role and George Hani handling third-down duties.

Davis Mattek actively selected Gino Smith as a quarterback pick in draft construction on two separate occasions, indicating confidence in the player's value at that draft position.

Davis Mattek has taken George Kittle a little bit in the eliminator but does not love it, stating 'I just think his ceiling is so low,' indicating limited upside and ceiling concerns.

George Pickens was included in the source's final draft roster, which received a 'B+ grade' for advancement, 'B minus ADP grade,' and 'B+ uniqueness,' indicating the source views him as a solid fantasy asset in the context of the overall draft construction.

Isaiah Bond has been receiving majority of first-team wide receiver reps for the Cleveland Browns during training camp, indicating a prominent role in the offense.

Source mentions Isaiah Pacheco as a backup to Gibbs in the Chiefs backfield, noting the depth chart context when discussing Gibbs' value proposition.

Davis Mattek criticizes JJ McCarthy's performance and role security. McCarthy lacks the opportunity of Kyler Murray, who is drafted like he'll start 17 games while McCarthy is 'never drafted.' Additionally, McCarthy did not qualify for EPA per play minimum (150 plays) and was worse per play than Davis Mills, Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, Russell Wilson, and Spencer Rattler; McCarthy had a 43% success rate and 'horrible' CPOE, described as 'just bad' and 'not a good player.'

Jamar Chase was included in the source's final draft roster, which received a 'B+ grade' for advancement, 'B minus ADP grade,' and 'B+ uniqueness,' indicating the source views him as a solid fantasy asset in the context of the overall draft construction.

Jadarian Price is taking the running back one job for Seattle; George Hani will be the third-down guy. Davis Mattek is locked into this backfield because Emanuel Wilson's name has not been mentioned, suggesting Price has clear lead-back status. Mattek selected Price in draft construction, indicating confidence in his value.

The source selected Jacobe Myers as a wide receiver in a single-entry Corgi draft, indicating confidence in the player's value at that draft position.

Jameson Williams was included in Davis Mattek's final draft roster, which received a 'B+ grade' for advancement, 'B minus ADP grade,' and 'B+ uniqueness,' indicating the source views him as a solid fantasy asset in the context of the overall draft construction.

Davis Mattek selected Jawan Jennings as a running back in a single-entry Corgi draft, indicating confidence in the player's value at that draft position.

Javante Williams is still the starter for the Broncos, but Jaden Blue is splitting first-team reps with him, indicating a potential timeshare situation developing.

Davis Mattek actively targets Jaylen Waddle in mock drafts, stating 'I'm taking Jaylen Waddle here, too. I'm really I'm really doing it,' indicating strong conviction to draft the wide receiver; Waddle was also included in the source's final draft roster graded 'B+ grade' for advancement, 'B minus ADP grade,' and 'B+ uniqueness.'

Davis Mattek drafted Jaylen Warren as running back two on a mock roster; however, the source notes that other analysts frequently call Warren 'the most flaccid pick on the board,' suggesting skepticism about his draft value despite being drafted in the eighth round. Warren was also included in the source's final draft roster graded 'B+ grade' for advancement, 'B minus ADP grade,' and 'B+ uniqueness.'

Jeremiah Love is expected to get the receiving work in the Arizona Cardinals backfield, which Davis Mattek identifies as the most valuable role in that offense. Love is positioned as the more valuable back in that offense compared to Tyler Algier.

Davis Mattek clarifies that Germaine Burton is not a viable option for Bengals wide receiver three. Burton was cut by the Bengals a year ago, received a tryout with the Buffalo Bills, and was subsequently waived by Buffalo, indicating he is not in contention for a significant role.

Jerry Jeudy has been receiving majority of first-team wide receiver reps for the Cleveland Browns during training camp, indicating a prominent role in the offense. However, Davis Mattek later lists Jeudy among 'the most boring names imaginable' in terms of value picks, suggesting he is a conventional, predictable selection without special value appeal.

Davis Mattek identifies Jonathan Brooks as a strong answer to the question of which non-injured players would move up most in rankings if guaranteed to play every game, suggesting durability concerns are currently limiting his draft stock and he would be a very good pick if healthy.

Davis Mattek lists Justice Hill as one of his favorite value picks in the eliminator contest, indicating strong confidence in his draft value.

The source selected Justin Jefferson as a wide receiver in a single-entry Corgi draft, indicating confidence in the player's value at that draft position. Justin Jefferson is recommended as a start in fantasy lineups, paired with Gentry Hampton in what the source describes as a favorable start combination.

Davis Mattek prefers Debo Samuel to Keenan Allen in the 10th round, suggesting Allen is not the preferred value at that draft position.

Kenneth Walker has been involved heavily in the passing game, indicating expanded offensive role and increased target opportunity.

Davis Mattek defends Kyler Murray's quarterback quality, noting he has the best pass catchers he's ever had and is in a good system; EPA per play comparison shows Murray at the same level as Bo Nix and better than Derek Carr, Mariota, Mayfield, Cousins, Stroud, Tannehill, Darnold, and Lawrence, characterizing him as 'a pretty fine quarterback' in a system without infrastructure to be a running team. Mattek also emphasizes Murray's role security, stating 'Kyler is starting 17 games if he's healthy.'

Davis Mattek would quickly take Lamar Jackson if he falls to a certain point in the draft, indicating strong conviction on his value at that price point.

Chicago Bears coaches (Ryan Poles, Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson, Press Taylor) are praising Luther Burden extensively at training camp with language suggesting he could become a legitimate Hall of Famer. Davis Mattek views this as major positive development validating his breakout expectations, and selected Burden in a single-entry Corgi draft, indicating confidence in his value.

The source hopes to acquire Mark Andrews at a fall to picks 132-133, indicating a target ADP range and willingness to wait for the tight end to drop in draft value. Mark Andrews was selected at ADP 132 in the draft being discussed. The source notes this is around where they have Debo Samuel ranked, suggesting Andrews went at a reasonable ADP relative to other tight end options.

Parker Washington continues to stand out at Jacksonville Jaguars training camp and has outplayed multiple first-round wide receiver picks to become the team's lead receiver. Davis Mattek notes there is 'no analog' to Washington's unique combination of low draft capital and NFL experience yet elite camp performance, making this a notable breakout candidate.

The source selected R.J. Harvey as a running back in a single-entry Corgi draft, indicating confidence in the player's value at that draft position.

Davis Mattek lists Samage Perine as one of his favorite value picks in the eliminator contest, indicating strong confidence in his draft value.

The source lists Saquon Barkley as one of their favorite value picks in the eliminator contest, indicating strong confidence in his draft value at his current ADP.

A Patriots reunion for Stefon Diggs appears unlikely due to reported locker room issues with Keenan Allen, Odell Beckham Jr., and Debo Samuel. The source identifies the most likely landing spots as the Commanders, Ravens, Chiefs, or Rams, each with different fantasy implications for his ADP and role.

Tank Bigsby is Davis Mattek's favorite running back to target in the current draft environment. Mattek describes Bigsby as 'definitely a more explosive rusher and probably has better mistackles for stability' compared to Brian Robinson, suggesting superior athleticism and elusiveness.

Davis Mattek selected Terrence Ferguson as a tight end in a single-entry Corgi draft, indicating confidence in the player's value at that draft position.

Tucker Craft has been cleared from the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, ending a brief two-day draft discount window. Davis Mattek expected potential extended absence but now believes Craft will be available, meaning draft price will return to full value.

The source projects Tyreek Hill to return later in the season, likely around November, which affects his early-season fantasy availability and draft timing considerations.

Davis Mattek expresses skepticism about Xavier Worthy's long-term upside, stating 'there's also a lot of reasons to believe that Xavier Worthy's never that good to begin with,' while acknowledging some reasons for optimism; notes that Cyrus Allen would cannibalize Worthy's role rather than Taekwon's.