0:00Good morning, friends and enemies.
0:02Welcome in to the week fantasy football running back preview. We do this every single Wednesday where we go game by game and I let y'all know whether every
0:11fantasy relevant running back is a start, a sit, or a flex. Thursday Night Football, tomorrow night, Atlanta at Tampa Bay. Let's start strong. So, we've
0:20got Atlanta in Tampa Bay here. Tampa Bay 4 and a half point favorites. Feels a little light, but based on the way the
0:27Tampa Bay's offense has been playing, 44 and a half point total. Let's check out the practice reports real quick. We have
0:33a couple DMPS across the board here.
0:36Mainly the one we're focused on is Drake London. It looks like he will not be suiting up again on Thursday night here.
0:43Nothing Monday, another DMP Tuesday. So hopeful to be back by next week. We also have some limited practices for Jaylen McMillan, Mike Evans. We'll see if
0:50they're going to be suiting up in this one. Tristan Worst did miss last week's game, but it's trending towards him returning, which would be big for the
0:57Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line, obviously. We're bike's going to go into the mustart category. I also added two new categories to this screen. Maybe you
1:06guys like it, maybe you hate it, maybe you don't care whatsoever. The total yards here at the top. So, it's just
1:11obviously a combination of rushing yards and receiving yards, the prop that you can find there on MGM. And then I also
1:17added the rush attempt number there. So 16 and a half for Bejan. Bucky Irving matches him with 16 and a half.
1:23Obviously has come back really, really strong. Continues to score touchdowns.
1:26Splitting a little bit more work with Rashad White than we would like to see.
1:29He had some negative runs last week that I think contributed to that. But regardless, he's as close to a mustart behind that like Bejian Jir Gibbs, that
1:37type of tier as you're going to find in fantasy football right now. Matchup is really good against the Atlanta Falcons defense, which is struggling. Algier and
1:45uh Rashad White are both going to go into like the shaky flex rather not category and we can move on from there.
1:51Arizona at Houston a 42 and a half point total here. We've got Houston as 9 and a half point favorites. Arizona's defense
1:58is decimated. They look terrible. They got ripped apart by the Rams Kairen and Blake Quorum last week. So it begs the
2:04question just how high is Woody Marx's ceiling? He's just not been a ceiling player this year. But I mean, you're coming off of a 26 carry game. Like the
2:14Texans have showed their cards. You know what they want to do in that back field.
2:17So Woody Marks, I mean, I'm I'm putting him into the feels good category.
2:20Matchup is great. Volume is great. The other side of the ball, Donovan Knight and Michael Carter are going to be the
2:24backfield going forward. They're going into the shaky flex tier and probably towards the bottom of it. Same thing with Nick Chub. They might get so far
2:31ahead in this game script that Nick Chub gets some goal line carries, but right now it is Woody Marks' backfield to
2:36lose. Let's move on to Baltimore at Cincinnati here. The Ravens two and a half point favorites despite being in Cincinnati. A 52 1/2 point total here.
2:45Derrick Henry is going to go right into the mustart category because they're playing the Cincinnati Bengals here. On the flip side of the ball, I would
2:52actually like to get Katon Mitchell involved a little bit, but I believe he's dayto-day with that knee injury that he left the game with last week.
2:57So, we'll have to keep an eye on practice reports for that. The only other player we're thinking about playing here would be Chase Brown.
3:03Overall, super involved, scoring touchdowns, catching passes, getting enough rushing attempts. his lines at 12 and a half, which is around where he
3:09finished with last week. Not efficient, but did get into the end zone twice. So, ended up saving his day, but more often
3:15than not over this last like 6 to 8 weeks, he's been a rock solid RB1. And the Baltimore run defense is not one to
3:21be scared of. So, Chase Brown's going to go right into the feels good category here. Next game up on the slate, we've
3:26got Buffalo at New England. New England one and a half point underdogs despite being at home and despite having already beaten the Buffalo Bills. James Cook.
3:38This is a tough matchup on paper again.
3:40Uh New England is great against the run, though again they they've fallen off a little bit thanks to the disappearance of Mr. Milton Williams in the middle of
3:48that offensive line. But James Cook, we are never sitting James Cook. Speaking of Milton Williams, I actually want to bring up something hilarious. If you
3:56guys have been following these videos throughout the year, you know that we use this app called Pickicket where it's like you sync the sports books that you
4:02place bets on throughout the entirety of the year and it tells you, you know, like it gives you your calendar. It's
4:07like, oh, how did you do last week? How did you do last month? How how have you done on the season in terms of ROI, in
4:12terms of profit, uh, all that kind of stuff. And you can follow your friends.
4:15It's like a a social sports betting tracking app for the most part. So, you can follow me and you can tail my picks
4:20along the way. But, they just released their Picket Replay, which is like Spotify wrapped, YouTube wrapped, whatever. It's like a conglomerate of
4:27everything that happened through the year and they give you a bunch of really cool statistics and one of them was the
4:31most obscure player that you bet on in 2025. So we had Milton Williams out there. Only.165% of Picket users placed a bet on Mr.
4:40Milton Williams. That is my goats. I bring him up every video regardless of if he's playing or not cuz I love that
4:46dude. But the Picket replay is is super super awesome. Again, it's just like the Spotify rap where you could see and it
4:52takes you through like your year. There are ups and downs. It shows you your best days of the year, your worst days
4:57of the year, your most Hey, hey, hey, enough of January 4th. Players you lost the most money on, the most wins that
5:03you had overall. Shout out Josh Allen.
5:04Shout out 0.5 rushing yard props for Xavier Worthy. It'll show you things like ROI by month. Uh, way too much red
5:10on there for me. Heat map, like when you bet the most, days of the year, all that kind of stuff. So, really cool. Just
5:15throwing that out there. Pick it replay.
5:17If you go on there now, if you download the app and you use code BDGE, it'll follow me automatically. But you can
5:23retroactively sync your stuff. So if you've not been on there up to this point, doesn't matter. You can download the Picket app and it'll sync and
5:29retroactively take all the bets that you put on any sports book throughout the year and then it'll make that replay for
5:34you in real time, which is awesome. So go check out the Picket app. It'll be the first link down below. Go check out
5:38the Picket Replay. You know, I'm not pushing anything here. It's it's free to use, free to download, free to get your
5:43replay. Very very very very very cool product. And if you do so, I want to see what your most obscure player that you
5:49bet on in 2025 is. If anyone could beat my Milton Williams 165% of Picket users, bet on that. If you have a lower percentage of a most
5:59obscure player, drop it down below. The person with the lowest percentage is going to win free BDG merch hoodie of your choosing. But I'm going to hit you
6:06up. And if you're lying, I'm going to make you send me a screenshot. So don't lie. Most obscure player, drop it down
6:11below. All right, back to Buffalo at New England. The other side of the ball is a little bit trickier. Obviously, you got
6:16Trayvon Henderson, Raandre Stevenson.
6:18When Trayvon started taking over the back field and then Raman returned and his first game back when he was still like getting back from the turf toe, it
6:25was still very much Trayvon in the driver's seat. However, last week he went back to the same exact split pretty much 50/50 where they got the same
6:33amount of carries and Randre was involved in the goal line. As you could see, Vegas still has them very, very close. Both of them at 10 and a half
6:39rushing attempts. They're obviously going to give Trayvon the edge in receiving yardage. This is a good matchup for running backs overall
6:44because Buffalo has a tough time stopping the run. And again, it's a 50 and a half point total here. So, I think
6:49the way I'm looking at this is like I still think Trayvon Henderson has the edge in terms of touches, explosive plays, pass catching, and I think when
6:56they're inside the 10 yard line, it's kind of a a coin flip as to like who's going to be on the field depending on
7:01what type of play they're running. Yes, more often than not, I do think it's probably Raandre when they're inside the one or two yard line, but I don't know
7:08if I could trust that. So, I'm going to throw Trayvon in into the dub flex category and I'm going to throw Raandre
7:13into the shaky flex category, but he definitely gets near the top because his lines are going to be much higher than
7:18the other guys in this grouping. Moving to Cleveland at Chicago, we've got Cleveland as 7 12 point underdogs. Here they are in Chicago a 39 12 point total.
7:30Would imagine we're going to see a lot of running back action in this game overall. Quincan Judkins, his efficiency has really cratered in terms of rushing
7:37efficiency in recent weeks. Dylan Samson is now starting to play a pass catching role. Judkins did have that like 60-ish yard catch last week, but touchdowns are
7:48a little bit more few and far between.
7:49The big plays are a little bit more few and far between. So, I think Judkins overall, I I I like the matchup overall.
7:56I still really really like the player.
7:57Maybe Shadora gives that offense a little bit more ceiling. So, I still think I'm going to throw him into the feels good category. And on the flip
8:04side, DeAndre Swift and Kungai, you know, nothing new here that you don't already know. They're just switching drives on and off. I will say for some
8:11reason, I got a gut feeling that Swift is going to eat this week. Now, it's just a gut feeling. The Cleveland Browns
8:18as a run defense have been elite for most of the year. However, over the last five weeks, they have allowed the sixth
8:25most PPR fantasy points to the running back position. So on the year like first half of the year, first eight weeks,
8:32they were, you know, bottom one, bottom two, bottom three matchup for opponent running backs, they did lose Malik Collins two weeks ago who was incredible
8:41up to this point in the season. Really, really underrated piece on that defensive line. And I do think that mattered. We saw last week Cleveland
8:48struggled to stop a guy like Tony Pard.
8:50And I think Swift and Pard are, you know, similarish players here. So, I think Chicago with the way that their passing game is like really inconsistent
8:58are, you know, as they've done basically all season going to rely pretty heavily on their running backs again here. So, when I look at Swift, when I look at
9:05Kyle Manungai, I won't go as far as saying like I feel great about them, but I honestly think both of them could
9:10definitely be started in this one. And I really, really like Swift this week.
9:13Samson's cool getting more involved.
9:15Jerome Ford now on the IR. So, Sam Samson probably will play around like 30%ish of the snaps, but I definitely do
9:21not want him in my lineup if I can help it. Moving to the Chargers at the Kansas City Chiefs. A 41 12 point total. This
9:29is probably going to be a slog fest out there. The Chiefs are four and a half point favorites at home. We saw the
9:34split for Hampton and Kamani Vidal last week in Hampton's first game back. It heavily favored Kamani Vidal. Kamani Vidal was in on nearly 70% of the snaps,
9:43just 30% for Omari and Hampton. though their overall carries and just like involvement in the offense was similar.
9:49It was 14 carries for Vidal, 13 carries for Hampton, but Vidal lapped him in routes run. He ran 23 routes to Amari
9:55and Hampton's eight routes. That being said, I thought Hampton looked really good. I thought Vidal looked really good. I think it's very, very clear that
10:02they're going to continue to use both of these backs at a high capacity. I eventually think Omarian Hampton's going to overtake Kamani Vidal for that early
10:09down role. And honestly, I think it could happen as soon as this week just given how good and ready Omari and
10:14Hampton looked right away. It's a tough matchup versus the Kansas City Chiefs who have allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points to the running back
10:21position on the year. But with Justin Herbert, you know, banged up his hand, not being able to throw much, they are
10:26going to continue to lean on their running back room, I think. So, what I think this will eventually kind of converge into is Amarian Hampton seeing
10:3155 to 60% of the snaps. Vidal still getting a healthy 40% running a lot of the routes, seeing a lot of the pass
10:38catching role there. But again, like Vidal went over 100 yards from scrimmage on Monday night, but a lot of that was
10:43on that one big catch and run down the sideline for him. So even with Vidal playing more snaps than Hampton, I'm
10:50actually going to skew in the favor that Hampton is going to continue to see his role increase. I'm going to throw
10:55Hampton into the dub flex category and I'm going to throw Kamani Vidal into the shaky flex category. Very much still startable. I think you can throw him
11:02into your lineup 50/50. It's a relatively good offense, but it's a tough match up against the Kansas City Chiefs. And eventually, again, I do
11:09think Hampton's going to overtake that backfield here. Flip side of things, like you don't want to be starting Isaiah Pacheco at all. Kareem Hunt
11:16obviously scores a touchdown like every single week. He gets about 10 carries, 40 yards, touchdown. He'll give you probably 10 to 12 points. If he doesn't
11:23get the touchdown, you know, you're kind of in trouble. So, I'm I'm floating back and forth between Dub Flex and Shaky
11:28Flex. I think overall I'd probably throw him closer to the shaky flex category because now with Pacheco back like his upside of getting 15 18 carries has kind
11:37of been zapped out of the range of outcomes but he's a good bet to score a touchdown any given week. We'll move on
11:41to Vegas at Philadelphia. Vegas 11 12 point underdogs here. 38 1/2 point total is gross. Saquon I'd imagine they're just going to look at what happened with
11:52the Saquon game last week and ride that type of game script and continue to feed him. So Saquon's going to go right back
11:57into the must start category. He'll be a top 10 back for me this week. On the flip side, Genty and that offensive line
12:03just get absolutely zero push. I don't think we have any word on Jaylen Carter being back on the defensive line. If he
12:10is, that's obviously a [ __ ] massive hit to the Raiders offensive line, who is struggling against dudes who are backups to Jaylen Carter to begin with.
12:17So, it's not great. Gent is going to fall down pretty dramatically. He's definitely not a mustar. don't feel good about him just based on the lack of
12:23push, but he's typically very involved in the passing game. So, I'm going to throw him into the dub flex category.
12:28Though, there are definitely decisions to be made with Genty this week for sure. And as always, if you need help with those decisions, our rankings for
12:35this week, my rankings that I do personally are live on the website right now. If you need help deciding between Ashen Genty, DeAndre Swift, Amari, and
12:43Hampton, you've got my input on those.
12:45We also have the Vegas spreads within our rankings, too. It's something that we launched a couple weeks ago. So, if you need help from me, if you need help
12:51from the books, that is available within our big dog membership. BDGE.co is where you can get the big dog membership or
12:58for the very very very cheap price of just $10 overall. If you sign up on MGM, our partner app or website, use code
13:06BDGE. When you do so, if you deposit 10 bucks, play any slip that you like on MGM. Soon as you do so, you're going to
13:12get an inapp promo code sent to you to use on our website, bdge.co, co so that you get three months free of the big dog
13:19membership that will expand into the dynasty off season as well. So go get that now if you need some sit start
13:25decision help throughout the remainder of your fantasy season. Jacksonville against the New York Jets. They are in Florida for this one. 12 point favorites
13:34for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jets defense is horrendous right now.
13:39Baseball Tuton went into concussion protocol this week. So I think there's a very good chance he misses this game.
13:43And with that being said, like you put all the snaps into Travis ETN's hand and this game script, I mean, my goodness,
13:51uh, he's a mustart for me. I think he's ranked right now as like the RB5 or six for me on the week, assuming Bashaw
13:57Tutin misses this game. If he doesn't, you're still emphatically starting ETM, but he probably drops down to like the RB 8 or 10, somewhere in that range. I
14:05think Tutin becomes maybe a shaky flex.
14:07If Tuton's out, I think you could make the argument that Laquin Allen could get enough run down the stretch of this game
14:12where it might get out of hand that you could start him, but we'll throw him into the rather not category for now.
14:16He'll be in my rankings somewhere. Bruce Hall on the other side. Like, we don't even know who's at quarterback. Tyrod has the groin strain. Justin Fields has
14:23some fake mystery injury. Is it Brady Cook? Hate everything going on in New York right now. This is a very tough
14:29matchup for Bruce Hall and the New York Jets ground game. Jacksonville bottom four in fantasy points allowed to the running back position. bottom eight in
14:37EPA per rush allowed. So Bree Hall will get the snaps, he'll get the carries, he'll get the work. He needs an
14:43explosive play. He needs a touchdown. So he's going to fall into the dub flex category and be like a borderline top 20
14:49running back for me in week 15.
14:52Washington at the New York Giants here.
14:55The Giants are two and a half point favorites, 46 and a half point total here. We don't have word on Jaden
15:00Daniels this week whether or not he's going to play. If I had to assume he would probably be on the side of not
15:06playing 5149, although they said he could have returned to last week's game.
15:11On the Washington side of things, you're definitely not trying to play any of the running backs outside of Chris Rodriguez. Chris Rodriguez is kind of
15:17like this is the perfect matchup for him where New York just allows so many points to the running back position. And
15:22that's what you need for Chris Rodriguez. Like he's going to get 10 to 13 carries. And in a game script where,
15:28you know, they could possibly lead or just stay in the entire game, there's a chance that we see that get up to like
15:3214 or 15. He will be the goal lineback as well. So, I think there's a good chance he ends up scoring a touchdown
15:37this week. So, I'm kind of looking at him similarly to Kareem Hunt, a Raandre Stevenson, maybe even in like the Kyle
15:44Manungai role, even though Kyle Manungi is obviously a little bit more of a talented back. Rodriguez is going to flirt between the dub flex and the shaky
15:50flex category. Overall, I think the matchup is good enough and he's like their lead back to the point that I would put him into the dub flex
15:56category. I'm also going to put Devin Singleary into that category as well. We don't have word on Tyrone Tracy yet. He
16:02left their game pre-by with a hip injury, but they said it was not that serious, then they had the buy, so he's
16:08got two weeks to recover from it. If Tyrone Tracy does end up missing this game for whatever reason, Single Terry is going to be a very, very highly
16:14ranked guy for me. And honestly, I'd go as far as saying he would jump up to the feels good category. I would probably
16:20start him over Quinshot Judkins. I think there's a chance I would start him over like most of these guys and he's going
16:25to be damn near a mustart, which is crazy, but the matchup against Washington, they are so bad against running backs. And again, when you
16:31consolidate all the work in that backfield, that backfield gets a lot of checkdowns, they get a lot of carries, they get a lot of goal line carries. So
16:37would love Devin Singleary this week. I also think if if Tyrone Tracy is playing, I think you can make the argument that both of these guys are
16:44extremely playable because the Washington Commanders defense is so bad.
16:48Moving to Carolina at New Orleans, we've got New Orleans as two and a half point underdogs at home against Carolina. This
16:53is a 40 and a half point total here. So, in the New Orleans backfield, Deon Neil has taken over as the guy. We've got no
17:00word on Alvin Kamara uh if he's even close to return. He has not returned to practice at all. Maybe he does today or
17:05this week at some point to a limited practice. And obviously, if he's active, that would really hurt Devin Neil. But for now, you know, Neil was a guy that I
17:13said last week I was like, don't overthink it. The usage is there. They really like getting him the ball obviously. And then a big game is going
17:19to be coming within the near future. And we got that last week. He had about 16 points. Got the touchdown, had I think
17:2419 carries, so over 20 touches last week. Honestly, with the matchup, with his role right now, if Alvin Kamar's out, he's going into the feels good
17:31category. On the flip side, we've got a little bit of a tricky backfield to decipher here because right before their buy, Chuba Hubard came on strong and him
17:39and Rico Dattle were splitting snaps pretty much 50/50. Cuba has obviously earned his way back into a real role in this offense and I don't think it's
17:47going back to Rico D being the workhorse right now. They get a good matchup against the Saints. This is a game in
17:54which it does feel like it's a little bit more Rico Dael coded than Chuba in terms of maybe leading or trying to
18:01establish the run here a little bit more. That being said though, I think they're both going to get a decent amount of work. It's kind of similar to
18:07a handful of the backfields going on right now. the DeAndre Swift Kunga. I wouldn't be surprised if they just go completely drive for drive, split for
18:14split here. So, I think when it gets down to the goal line, Rico D's probably more likely to get that carry. So, I
18:21still lean him minorly and Chuba Hubard I definitely think is flex worthy cuz I do think he's going to get 10 plus
18:27touches. They do a lot of like designed pass plays for him. They have a very similar skill set. Rico D's a little bit
18:33more powerful. Chuba Hubard's probably a little bit more well suited in the passing game, but like both of them can do everything you need on all three
18:42downs. So, it's a little bit tricky to decipher if it's just like a small sample size or they just prefer throwing
18:47a Chuba Hubard a little bit more. But both of them are involved in the passing game. Both of them are going to be
18:50involved in the rushing game going forward. It just hurts the confidence that I had in Rico D earlier on in the
18:55season obviously, but I think Chuba Hubard is here to stay and he's going to have a significant role in this back
18:59field. Next up, we've got Detroit at the LA Rams here. a 55 12 point total despite both of these defenses being
19:07very very good against the run. The Rams are 5 and a half point favorites. No doubt about it. Detroit's very banged up
19:15on defense. Jir Gibbs going into the mustart category. Deont's a guy that like I I don't trust unless he's going against a shitty defense. So, he had the
19:23touchdown last week, but the touches are so skewed in favor of Jir Gibbs right now that Deont's not a guy against this
19:28Rams defense that I really want in my lineup whatsoever. flip side, we have this like split backfield. Blake Quum has kind of blown up the last couple
19:36weeks, but came against the Arizona Cardinals, came against the Carolina Panthers in a game against Detroit, who have allowed the second fewest fantasy
19:42points to the running back position. I don't expect a ton of success through the ground game. I expect Matt Stafford to throw the ball a shitload of times. I
19:49mean, they're going to be without Brian Branch. They're going to be without Terron Arnold. They're without a ton of players in their secondary. So, I think
19:55this is a game where they go very, very, very past heavy. and Kairen Williams.
19:59While they're splitting snaps, they're splitting drives, I still think when push comes to shove, it's Kairen Williams' world. And Blake Quorm is just
20:05a nice secondary piece. So Blake Horm definitely not a dub flex in my opinion because of the matchup. If this was a
20:11better matchup, again, going against the Cardinals last week, fine. But he's going to go into the shaky flex category. And Kairen, I I don't know
20:17that I feel great about him because it is a split backfield and the matchup is tough, I'll throw him into the dub flex
20:22category, but definitely very much towards the very very top of it. Moving on to Green Bay at Denver. Here we have
20:28the Packers as two and a half point favorites on the road in Denver. 43 and a half point total. We have two matchups
20:34where you see a lot of red across the board. Denver's defense is obviously really good. Green Bay's defense is obviously very, very good against
20:40running backs as well. Overall, I mean, these are two guys that just monopolize touches in their back field. These are two guys that have a very high
20:47likelihood of scoring. So, you know, I'm not going to overthink either one of them. Both of them are going to go into
20:51the feels good category. probably low efficiency on the ground cuz that's kind of what we've seen from Jacobs this year. Their offensive line is just not
20:57getting a ton of push, but he's in there on every goal line package and Jordan Love just keeps drives sustained to the
21:03point where Jacobs will have enough yards at the end of the game. RJ Harvey I'm a little bit more skeptical about
21:08just because, you know, he plays really well and has big fantasy days when they're playing [ __ ] defenses and when
21:13they play good defenses, he is the inefficient running back that I feel like I saw on tape most of the time. But
21:18overall, he's also monopolized touches back here. So, both of them are just going to stick right there. Indie at Seattle, uh, we've got Seattle at home,
21:2713 1/2 point favorites, 42 1/2 points total because the quarterback for Indie is either going to be Philip Rivers or Brett Ripen or Riley Leonard, who is
21:37week to week with a PCL sprain. So, it's or uh, was it PCL? I think it's PCL, maybe an MCL. I don't I don't remember,
21:43but probably going to be sidelined for this game. And I think there's a real chance that Philip Rivers is the quarterback, which could end up leading
21:48to a lot of dump offs for Jonathan Taylor. But the obvious problem here is the efficiency is going to [ __ ]
21:54crater for the Indianapolis Colts offense without Daniel Jones under center. Overall though, I think Jonathan Taylor is probably going to see
22:01somewhere between 20 and 25 touches. So the matchup's brutal. Worst matchup you could probably have in football at this point against the Seattle defense.
22:08Gamecript will not be in favor of running backs, but JT's a must start regardless. I don't care how bad this game is going to end up being. like JT's
22:14in your lineup and you can't think twice about it. On the flip side, we got Kdub, we got Zack Charbanet. Charbanet going
22:21to score the touchdowns. Kenneth Walker is probably going to get a lot of touches. Gamecript is great here though.
22:2613 and a half point favorites. I think both of them are flex worthy and the Colts defense is so banged up right now.
22:33Sauce is obviously going to be out another week with the calf strain.
22:36Deorest Buckner on their Dline is eligible to return from his IR stint, which would be huge for that Dline because they're just not very good right
22:46now. If he's not back, I think both Walker and Charbanet are going to get a ton of work in this game script. This
22:52feels like it's been it's happened so many times this year where it's like Seattle is such a good game script, they're like favored by 10 plus points.
22:58But what happens is Seattle ends up going out in those games and scoring special teams touchdowns and defensive touchdowns and they just like don't run
23:04enough plays on offense. But if that doesn't happen, which like I would never bet on it happening. So I'm just going
23:10to say both of these guys are very very much flex worthy. Like Charbanet is a very good bet to score a touchdown.
23:14Kenneth Walker is a good bet to have 15 touches and probably be relatively efficient. Should also be known that Travarius Ward who already missed a
23:21bunch of time with two concussions, I believe, suffered another concussion, his third of the season. So he's going to be out for the rest of the season. So
23:28this Indianapolis defense is in shambles right now. And because of that, start every Seattle player. Next up, we got Tennessee at San Francisco. Now, I will
23:36say I will say one thing. I want I want to shout out the Tennessee run def. Not a lot of things to shout out for
23:41Tennessee this year, but their run defense over the last month of the season has been very, very, very good.
23:45They've become a complete passfunnel defense where letting up a shitload of points to quarterbacks, but not a lot to running backs. That being said, it's
23:53Christian McAffrey. Game script is crazy. 12 and a half point favorites.
23:57Tennessee has to travel cross country.
23:5844 and 1/2 point total with all those implied points in favor of San Francisco. So, he's obviously a must start. On the flip side, we do have Tony
24:07Pard coming off of a ridiculous breakout game. 25 for like 160 on the ground, two touchdowns, the most fools goal type of
24:13I've ever seen. That being said, you know what? Maybe they look at that and say, "Hey, we got to give them
24:17another 20 touches." San Francisco's defense also is not very good right now.
24:21So, deserves to be in the shaky flex category, but has been an absolute nothing burger up to this point in the
24:26season. Sunday Night Football, Minnesota at Dallas. We've got Dallas as 5 1/2 point favorites at home 47 1/2 point total. We know Javant Williams, he's an
24:3680 90% snap guy. Decent chance to score a touchdown minus 145. So you want to throw him into the mustar category. You
24:42want to throw him into the feels good category, whatever. He's going to be a top 12 running back for me this week.
24:47The other side of the ball is a little bit more interesting. Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason splitting carries. This is a good matchup against the Dallas
24:54defense. As you could see, a lot of green across the board, though, they've been a better overall defense, I would say, over the last month of the season,
25:00especially since getting Quinnon Williams in that trade. Of course, tough to get a real read on the backfield.
25:05Last week, we had Aaron Jones, who's a little bit banged up with the uh shoulder injury, but they just put the
25:09beat down on Washington and shut them out. So, it was like, what what is the real backfield split right now?
25:15Aaron Jones played 44% of the snaps.
25:17Jordan Mason played 30% of the snaps.
25:19But, I will say Jordan Mason did score the touchdown. So when they're inside the 10, inside the five, I do expect
25:23Jordan Mason to get goal line carries here. I'd rather play Aaron Jones. I think the matchup is good. He's more explosive obviously. So I'm going to
25:30throw him into the dub flex category and throw Jordan Mason into the shaky flex category. But I think both are probably
25:34playable in this matchup. Miami at Pittsburgh. Monday Night Football.
25:40Pittsburgh threepoint favorites here at home. 42 and a half point total. Of course, Devon Achan is a mustart. You know, he's got the rib injuries, but
25:48apparently it's not overly serious. So, we are going to see Devon Chan likely suit up on Monday night, especially with the extra day rest. That being said,
25:55maybe they don't run him as hard and maybe Jaylen Wright gets a little bit more work, but I definitely don't want
25:59him in my lineup. The other side of things is where things get a little bit more interesting. You got Jaylen Warren,
26:04you got Kenneth Gainwell, who have basically been in a 50/50 snap split for like the last six weeks. The other thing
26:10to note, Miami, and I tweeted this out yesterday, Miami over the last five weeks have allowed the single fewest fantasy points to the running back
26:19position on the season. They were the WO early on. They were the team, they were one of the teams that Rico Dao ran for
26:26over 200 yards on. Since that game though, especially post by, they have been one of the better defenses in all of football, especially against the
26:35ground game. So, while on paper this felt like a much easier matchup a few weeks ago, it's actually not that easy
26:41of a matchup anymore. Both of these guys are used really heavily in their game plans, you know, they love to use the
26:46running backs. It is Arthur Smith.
26:48Jaylen Warren gets the goal line carries, but Kenneth Gainwell is very involved down there as well. They have some passing plays kind of drawn up for
26:54him or Jaylen Warren. They do have kind of similar skill sets. Jaylen Warren is definitely more like run focused, more powerful, but Kenneth Gwell can play on
27:01all three downs if needed, which makes the backfield so so tricky here. We don't have any lines up for these guys
27:07yet. I still prefer Warren to Kenneth Gainwell. I know Gainwell has a lot of these like fluky touchdowns or whatever you want to call them, but I think
27:14realistically Jaylen Warren is still the guy that projects to have more touches that can always have that like big ceiling game. But I think they're both
27:22in that area similar to Kenneth Walker, Rico, Zack Charmin, Aaron Jones down to Raandre Stevenson, Kamani Vidal, Chuba.
27:29they're in this I I need to make this own tier where it's like running back by committee. Just 10 plus touches, [ __ ]
27:3550 45% chance to score a touchdown.
27:37That's where like 10 of these guys kind of end up. So, I'm going to put Jaylen Warren down here. I'm going to put
27:41Kenneth Gainwell up here in this mold.
27:43So, that's kind of the way I'm thinking about them. Maybe it's more helpful for me to just say like I prefer Warren to
27:48Kenneth Gainwell, but I don't have some like crazy [ __ ] algorithm logic breakthrough that tells you why this guy's such a better fit than this guy
27:56for this particular week. I just think 53% of the snaps go to Warren, 47 to Kenneth Gainwell. Gainwell plays more passing role. Warren plays more of the
28:04rushing role, but this is a tough matchup now on paper statistically.
28:07We'll wrap it up there. That's the running back preview for this week.
28:10Tomorrow, of course, will be the same thing, but the wide receiver preview.
28:13And now that there are no teams on buy, these videos are going to be [ __ ] long. There'll be a lot of players in
28:18these pictures. Let me throw this into portrait mode for you hoes. And remember, if there's anything that you do for me, if you want to show support,
28:25please go download the Pickicket app for free. Use code BDGE when you download it. It automatically follows us on there, so you could see all my picks.
28:33You could tell them throughout the week, the weekend. And let me know your most obscure player that you bet on in 2025
28:40with Picket Replay. Obviously, you've got to sync your sports books in order to see that replay, but again, free to do so. Just anything, any apps that you
28:47use, sync it through that. Comment down below what your most obscure player is.
28:51And if you beat my percentage of.165 for Milton Williams, I'm going to send you a BDGE hoodie. All right, I love y'all.
28:58Thank you for hanging out with me this week. Hit the button that looks like this down below. And if you want the
29:02rankings, bdge.co.
29:04Smoochies.
