That's Fair - Divisive ADPs
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
57 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 13, 2026
Published
Thu, August 13, 2026
40
Player insights
39
Players mentioned
Topics
Jonathon BrooksAdonai MitchellAlec PierceAmari CooperBaker MayfieldBraelon AllenCade OttonCharlie KolarChris GodwinChristian McCaffreyChuba HubbardDallas GoedertDarren WallerDavante Adams
Player analysis
Player insights
Adonai Mitchell
NegativeValue37:34
The source identified Adonai Mitchell as a target to pair with Lamar Jackson in draft strategy, though he was sniped before they could select him.
Insight pageAlec Pierce
NegativeValue48:58
The source has been targeting Alec Pierce around pick 110, noting that the team clearly wants him to fill a role similar to Terry McLaurin or Courtland Sutton. However, the source remains a non-believer in his overall fantasy outlook and notes conflicting reports regarding his injury status.
Insight pageAmari Cooper
PositiveValue29:51
Amari Cooper is viewed as an increasingly attractive value pick as his ADP continues to drop, with the source maintaining high confidence and continuing to draft him frequently.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
PositiveValue35:11
The source confirms Baker Mayfield is already on their roster and recommends him as a viable quarterback target in drafts, especially if the drafter is concerned about the position and can pair him with Chris Godwin.
Insight pageBraelon Allen
NegativeProjection12:23
Braelon Allen is used as a benchmark in JJ Zachariason's year-two prospect model to illustrate the decline in Jonathan Brooks's ranking following his injury-impacted rookie season.
Insight pageCade Otton
PositiveValue35:42
The source prefers drafting Cade Otton as a third tight end option for their team, viewing him as a reliable, albeit 'boring,' depth piece compared to higher-variance options.
Insight pageCharlie Kolar
PositiveSleeper46:58
Charlie Kolar is identified as a late-round target because he is reportedly moving around the formation and taking on receiving tight end responsibilities.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue19:00
Chris Godwin is a preferred draft target for the source, who is actively looking to increase their exposure to him in current drafts.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeProjection13:14
The source uses Christian McCaffrey as a benchmark for a high-end workhorse role, clarifying that Jonathon Brooks does not possess the profile to reach that level of usage.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeInjury4:55
Chuba Hubbard is currently week-to-week with a hamstring injury, creating a risk of recurrence or worsening. While he is the incumbent starter, the source suggests his career production is often overrated relative to his second-round status, and he is likely to lose starting snap share to Jonathan Brooks, especially given the team's continued confidence in the rookie.
Insight pageDallas Goedert
NegativeUsage18:10
Dallas Goedert has been a consistently involved target in the Eagles' offense over the years and remains a key part of the team's target competition landscape.
Insight pageDarren Waller
PositiveUsage43:45
The source views Darren Waller as a high-ceiling, high-variance asset compared to 'boring' tight ends. While acknowledging a likely part-time role, the source notes his potential to be a focal point of the downfield passing attack if Terry McLaurin misses time, citing his 21% targets per route run, 1.75 YPRR, and previous 26-point fantasy performances.
Insight pageDavante Adams
PositiveValue14:59
The source notes that Davante Adams falling in draft rankings represents a significant value opportunity.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
NegativeUsage17:33
DeVonta Smith is viewed as a primary target in the Eagles' offense, with the source suggesting it is unlikely for other receivers to consolidate target share ahead of him. He is also used as a rookie-year comparison for Makai Lemon, noting his 64-reception, 915-yard, five-touchdown season which benefited from a lack of target competition.
Insight pageDontayvion Wicks
NegativeProjection17:40
The source expects Dontayvion Wicks to start on the outside in three-wide receiver sets for the Eagles, but suggests his season-long upside is inferior to Makai Lemon's, arguing Wicks will not factor into the same tier of potential by the end of the season.
Insight pageGeno Smith
PositiveUsage35:42
The source explicitly states they do not need to draft Geno Smith for their current team, indicating he is not a priority target.
Insight pageIsaac Guerendo
NegativeProjection12:23
In the context of JJ Zachariason's year-two prospect model, Jonathan Brooks's ranking dropped significantly after his rookie season, placing him below Isaac Guerendo.
Insight pageJa'Kobi Lane
PositiveProjection20:25
Jakobi Lane is viewed as a high-level talent who performed well at the professional level and served as significant target competition for other receivers at USC.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
NegativeUsage17:29
The source notes that Jalen Hurts remains central to the Eagles' offensive identity, specifically highlighting his continued involvement in the 'tush push' and his role in mentoring teammates like DeVonta Smith.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveValue12:28
The source expresses comfort in drafting Jaylen Waddle at his current ADP, noting they have not seen any injury news that would deter them from selecting him.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeValue11:42
Jonathan Taylor is cited as a historical comparison for a player who entered the league with a lower price point due to a rookie-season ACL tear. He is also used as a ceiling benchmark for a workhorse running back, a role the source does not expect Jonathan Brooks to reach.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
NegativeValue3:22
Jonathan Brooks is a divisive ADP riser, with Pat Kerrane noting his climb to the 6.11 in BBM drafts following Chuba Hubbard's hamstring injury. While some argue he is a high-upside play, Sam Sherman remains skeptical, labeling his current cost a 'big parlay' of outcomes that ignores his limited rookie-year traction and time since his peak. He is an outlier as a non-playing rookie, yet likely to see significant opportunity; one speaker projects him to take the Week 1 snap, while the other remains skeptical of him starting over a healthy Hubbard. He is not a CMC or Jonathan Taylor-level workhorse, but rather a 1A who catches passes, with a profile compared to Bucky Irving.
Insight pagePositiveRole10:03
The source argues that Jonathon Brooks is likely to earn the first snap for the Panthers in Week 1, noting that the team's decision not to sign veteran competition and their continued confidence in him since April is borderline shocking.
Insight pageKadarius Toney
NegativeValue15:24
The source is skeptical of Kadarius Toney at his current ADP due to his injury history and lack of standout camp buzz, leading to lower rankings and simulations. While they prefer drafting him on DraftKings due to a significant price gap compared to Underdog, they consider him overpriced on the latter platform.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
PositiveValue35:14
The source notes that Keenan Allen is available late in drafts, suggesting he is an easy target to acquire if desired, noting he recently went undrafted in a league.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeValue37:34
Lamar Jackson is already on the team's roster and is identified as a key quarterback target to stack with receivers like Adonai Mitchell in draft strategy.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveValue35:12
The source uses Luther Burden as a historical example of a rookie wide receiver who provided tournament-winning value despite limited early-season usage. He is considered a 'smash' pick where he is going, as his high-upside profile remains valuable even when early-season roles appear uncertain.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
PositiveBreakout25:04
The source argues Makai Lemon is a clear value in the eighth round, projecting him to play in the slot immediately with a significant role and potential for a target share exceeding 16-17%. While some skepticism exists regarding immediate production due to DeVonta Smith's presence as an alpha, the expectation is for his playing time and usage to increase as the season progresses.
Insight pageMark Andrews
PositiveValue26:10
Mark Andrews is a priority draft target for the source, specifically for stacking strategies, as he remains available at a reasonable price point.
Insight pageMecole Hardman
PositiveBreakout34:30
The source debates whether Mecole Hardman is a better redraft or best ball pick, but ultimately likes him for his high-end upside in best ball formats. He is noted as being cheaper on FFPC, making him an attractive target for building out high-upside rosters.
Insight pageParris Campbell
PositiveValue33:23
The source identifies Parris Campbell as their preferred target among a group of receivers, noting he has been receiving buzz.
Insight pageQuez Watkins
PositiveUsage18:18
While Quez Watkins is projected as a starter in two-wide receiver sets, the source is skeptical that he can consolidate a high-volume target share similar to DeVonta Smith or A.J. Brown, noting the odds of him becoming a high-volume fantasy asset are low.
Insight pageRashod Bateman
NegativeBust31:57
The source identifies Rashod Bateman as a player they liked coming out of college who ultimately became a bust. In later draft discussions, the source considered drafting him, but he was selected by another team before they could pick him.
Insight pageRico Dowdle
PositiveValue14:07
The source highlights Rico Dowdle as a viable alternative in the same draft range as the Panthers' running backs, noting his past production stretches, including back-to-back 200-yard games last season.
Insight pageTank Dell
PositiveUsage33:32
The source likes Tank Dell and notes he has been healthy, though they worry the Houston offense will utilize 12 personnel and a rotation that limits his consistent role, making the incentive to play him in a huge role low this year.
Insight pageTony Pollard
PositiveValue18:26
The source is bullish on Tony Pollard, specifically noting that he is a strong value pick when available past his current ADP.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveValue26:10
Travis Kelce is a preferred tight end target for the source, utilized as part of their draft stacking strategy.
Insight pageTrey Benson
NegativeProjection12:26
Trey Benson is used as a benchmark in JJ Zachariason's year-two prospect model to illustrate the decline in Jonathan Brooks's ranking following his injury-impacted rookie season.
Insight pageTreylon Burks
NegativeBust31:58
The source lists Treylon Burks as a historical example of a rookie bust who was being drafted in the eighth round.
Insight pageTutu Atwell
NegativeValue9:58
Tutu Atwell is used as a benchmark for ADP comparison, with the source noting that if Jonathan Brooks were a second-round pick this season, he would be drafted ahead of Atwell.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Welcome to the Legendary Upside podcast and YouTube channel. My name is Pat Kerrane. You can follow all of my content at legendaryupside.com.
0:08With me today Sam Sherman for our That's Fair podcast. Sam, how's it going?
0:13>> I'm good, Pat. We got week one of preseason finally kicking off the tonight, I think there's a couple games even. And more games coming this
0:21weekend, so it'll be great to get our first batch of, you know, Nathan Jahnke snap counts and some interesting analysis on those.
0:29So, looking forward to it.
0:30>> Jahnke I I kind of I'm I haven't seen it yet, but I was hoping he would, you know, tweet out like a a Rocky montage
0:36of him just like, you know, getting ready [laughter] getting ready for the big game.
0:40>> He should do that, honestly.
0:42This is his time to shine.
0:44>> Like he just over the keyboard like typing in like seven, deleting it like eight.
0:49>> [laughter] >> Yeah. I I I'm >> manually Is he manually doing it? He must be, right? Like >> I I think he must be, right? He's
1:00Well, I mean, he's been doing it for years, so maybe he's got something now, but I mean, you know, my assumption is
1:06he's just like he's just charting who's out there with all the all the starters, you know?
1:11Yeah. It's a grind, man.
1:14>> That is a grind. I hope that I know PFF has cut back a bit. Um, so I don't know how many resources they have for this,
1:20but I hope they have a little automation system to help help our boy Jahnke out there, cuz that that sounds pretty
1:28brutal doing doing by hand.
1:29>> I I don't know. I've never I've never asked, so I'm not sure, but I've always assumed he's just uh that he has plans tonight. That's what
1:38I've [laughter] assumed is that he's Yeah.
1:42Um Sorry, we are late.
1:45Uh Sam had to put his bike back. Uh >> Yeah.
1:49>> We just make sure we have >> All right. [laughter] >> the right background. Um we actually do have a shorter episode today. Uh we're
1:56we're going to be just going for another 50 minutes or so. So, I'm going to jump us in a draft here
2:02uh pretty much right away. But, today's topic was um you know, divisive ADPs. And was I wanted to have this conversation to
2:11begin with when I saw that one of your divisive ADPs, Jonathan Brooks, is now going to be moving up.
2:18And even higher even higher because of the Chuba Hubbard hamstring injury. And I just was in a in a BBM, he went at the 611.
2:27Uh yeah. So, and I don't think that's the the ceiling on on where he goes now.
2:33Uh so, it I figured we had to had to talk about the Brooks ADP, which I know you you were already pretty out on in
2:40the I got him at the 711 uh just just about an hour ago and was delighted. I couldn't believe the value
2:49that I was getting on Jonathan Brooks. I know that, you know, seventh-round Brooks is rankles you to begin with, but yeah,
2:55what what are your thoughts on Brooks now that obviously Chuba's is week-to-week with a hamstring injury?
3:01>> Yeah, I mean, even as a Brooks hater, like first off have to admit that the the hamstring injury is is good news for
3:09him. I don't think it's like radically changes his outlook, but it's obviously good if you're in sort of an ambiguous running back situation to get
3:17the benefit of the top running back, you know, getting injured and having an opportunity to prove himself. So, you know, I think we'll see on Chuba. I
3:28think like most likely scenario is in 3 weeks, like we kind of have forgot that this hamstring injury was even a thing
3:35and he's fine. But, also these things can can recur and get worse. So, you know, I would take Brooks up a little
3:42bit from wherever you had him ranked off this news.
3:44I just think overall on Brooks though, I think we are asking for a pretty big parlay of things to happen for him to be
3:56a value you know where he goes in drafts currently. Um, I think you know actually I don't want to regurgitate too much of
4:05of Mike Leone's point he actually I don't know if you saw Leone was back in the content streets this week on on
4:10Davis's show and his point with Brooks which is he summed it up better than than I had but it's largely like where
4:18I've been coming from is I think a lot of people like are going back to his prospect profile coming out of college which was a very good
4:28prospect and just kind of like almost treating it as if he is that prospect coming into the draft now.
4:35When the reality is you know it's it's been two years since then um you know he had the same ACL tear he
4:44he didn't really get a ton of traction in his in his rookie year before he had that injury now he had a very limited
4:49time to do that.
4:50>> that's right?
4:51That doesn't strike me as what's happening to be honest.
4:55>> I I think that is I mean to me like the comparison is like >> I think his ADP would be in the third or
5:01fourth round if that was the case.
5:03>> If he was a sec if you tell me if like there was a second round pick drafted by the Panthers I mean we're taking a
5:10first round pick >> competition? Yeah I mean we're taking >> first round pick on the the Seahawks with George Iloka ni as the competition
5:17in the you know 60s right?
5:19>> Yeah but he's like literally a backup running back in college.
5:24>> [sighs] >> Well I mean I guess I don't know it depends how we're doing the scenario but in this >> We took Hampton Hampton was what a
5:32second round pick last year?
5:36>> Yeah but I think there's a pretty big difference between the Chargers and the Panthers and I also think there's a
5:44>> There's definitely difference I just I think he'd be like a third or fourth He'd probably be a fourth round pick if
5:49he was drafted this year.
5:50>> Yeah, I don't I just don't know if I agree with that because of the team situation. And also, I think there
5:56is as good of a prospect as Brooks was.
5:58>> of Tuton. If he was their second round pick this season, he would be going ahead of Tuton.
6:05>> Yeah, I I I don't know. I I guess maybe I'm just much lower on this Panthers situation to begin with. But okay, whatever.
6:14I guess >> we say if we whatever we we agree on for where he would be going in that scenario, the
6:2050s, near Tuton, something like that, 40s.
6:23Um E like a guy who hasn't played in the NFL for two seasons and we're only getting like a two round two and a half round
6:34discount now off of like what he would have where he would have been going if he entered the league on that prospect
6:40profile. Realize that's a complicated way of explaining it, but like like for for a point of comparison, I guess. Um here maybe we can make this
6:48this pick first.
6:49>> Yeah, he was a tricky guy with his actual prospect profile, you know, or his actual rookie season. He was coming
6:55off of an ACL tear, which made him He was much cheaper when he actually entered the league, but that was that was why there. Taylor would be the
7:02guy here.
7:03>> Yeah, let's do Taylor.
7:04>> Yeah.
7:05>> But like as one data point, this this isn't everything, but JJ Zachariason, he does like a year two model for guys
7:14after their rookie season in his prospect guide, and he kind of like restacks and reranks them after their rookie season.
7:21Now, his model, you know, obviously, I think it just takes in the stats. It doesn't have the context of injuries.
7:25But for example, like Jonathan Brooks after his year one season after year one season where he did nothing, he dropped from being, you know, in the
7:35mid-90s, so like a tier one prospect in his model, to after that year being below guys like Isaac Guerendo, in line
7:43with guys like Bray- Braylon Allen, behind Trey Benson, behind Tyron Tracy.
7:48So, that's just to say like the the data of a guy doing absolutely nothing his rookie year is really bad. I know it was
7:56due to injury. Like, that is a different situation.
8:00>> Or do you want to do Barkley sweet?
8:02>> Yeah, yeah. Let's do Barkley.
8:04And then there's just like a whole whole 'nother year on top of that where he literally has done nothing in the NFL
8:11and like I I don't know, man.
8:14>> we're trying to solve two questions.
8:16There's two questions, right? Cuz the first question, the reason that like guys who enter the league and then don't do anything are bad bets from a
8:25macro level because one, they probably are bad. Like, and a lot of them are bad.
8:32And a lot of them deal with injuries and then never regain the trust of the team that drafted them to the point where they get an
8:39opportunity again.
8:41So, there's like extreme caution that you want to take with a guy like Brooks without signal that he's going to be
8:50given an opportunity and kind of treated like he matters again.
8:55What I think we're seeing with Brooks, which is like we he is already like a pretty massive outlier.
9:02Like, today.
9:03To be in position to where he's going to he's going to be like their starting running back in in week one of the
9:09preseason >> I admit it, like his Chuba Chuba's hurt.
9:12But like, for him to like get the the first snap as the starter in anything ever after what his start of his career has
9:21been is already like woah.
9:23You know? And so, I guess with with like you can kind of look at comparables of guys who haven't played this far into
9:32their career. They're all going to be pretty bad.
9:34But like, what does that tell you about what Jonathan Brooks has if he gets on the field and and is given
9:41a big opportunity? Does that tell you like he can't take advantage of it? I don't think that's what that means. I
9:45think the vast majority of the signal is that that will never happen. He will never get the chance to be a starting running
9:52back having not played this far into his career.
9:55He is though.
9:57And it's it's taken a lot to get here and it's it's like kind of crazy that we are here, but he is he is likely to get
10:03these not just in the preseason. He's likely to get the first snap for the Panthers week one at this point I would
10:08say because because of the hammy even if even if Hubbard doesn't miss that game. I think Hubbard I think Brooks is now likely to get the first
10:17snap for the Panthers week one.
10:20>> I I don't think that's the case. I I would be pretty shocked if he got the first snap with Chuba being healthy.
10:28>> I think you might have a higher opinion of Chuba Hubbard than I do.
10:32>> I I mean I think Chuba is a a totally fine player, but I think like it's a bit of like
10:38shiny new toy syndrome or like okay, throw out the like prospect profile cuz I know like production and stuff was better than a typical second round pick.
10:47If a second round running back had Chuba Hubbard's career so far, that would be a hit on the spectrum of second round
10:54running backs that enter the NFL. Like most second running backs don't have like as good of a season as Chuba had
11:03two years ago.
11:05So I I just think like it's a bit of like never uh wow.
11:11>> Yeah.
11:11>> He fell a lot. I guess he's always kind of falling a lot these days. Yeah, I like I like the bread.
11:16Um Like I also just think it's bad like a a running back that tears his ACL in December last year and misses the entire season
11:26with like there was no even like murmurs of him having a chance of playing. Like, that seems also pretty bad.
11:35>> like he'll never play again, probably.
11:37It seems like he won't [laughter] be treated as a guy that they hope become the starting running back. You know, and
11:43it seems like the guy they wouldn't talk about, we would like him to be the starter by the end of the season. We we
11:49like all the things that have happened since that are very very surprising.
11:56You know, and it really has happened in a short window where like I assumed Brooks would be nothing as recently as
12:02like April.
12:06Like, they they don't bring in competition.
12:09They like clearly think he's going to be a a factor for them.
12:13They continue to think that with more information, getting to see him play.
12:18Like, everything that's happened from April till now is I mean, throw in March. They didn't They didn't sign anybody in free agency.
12:25All of it has been borderline shocking.
12:28>> Um Or I would take Waddle. Do you feel okay about his uh his injury, by the way?
12:36>> Yeah, I I haven't seen anything that's made me Okay. You know, not want to take him at this pick.
12:43>> Okay.
12:45>> Um >> Yeah.
12:47I I don't know. I I guess like we we clearly disagree about like how to evaluate him as a player. I I think the
12:56other thing is just like this Panthers situation just Like, what what is the ceiling of what Assuming Chuba Hubbard isn't like
13:04injured and completely dusted, like what what is the ceiling of the split that Brooks can get to with Hubbard? Like, to
13:11me, I think it's still like 65-35.
13:14Like, I don't think there's scenarios where Brooks does the CMC, Jonathan Taylor, and whatever thing.
13:19>> not his profile, either. That's not who he is. He's He's not CMC. He's It's Bucky-esque. You know, I think it's
13:27in a in a way that that might feel derogatory now because Bucky just disappointed us, but it's like he's a 1A who catches the ball.
13:36That's that's his profile. He's not going to be like uh a dominant, you know, 20 touch a game workhorse, I don't
13:43think. Although Bucky got up there in touches at times, but but he's not Yeah, you know, he's not like a um
13:51you know, 85% snap rate guy, I don't think.
13:56>> Yeah.
13:59I I got I think this this this Panther situation I'm I'm kind of down on and like I don't know. I feel like I have choices
14:07in in this range for like may- maybe the rest of the fantasy market thinks these players are kind of boring, but like Rico Dowdle had a
14:15stretch of like 200 yard games back-to-back last season and he goes in this range and in a Begu situation.
14:21Probably on a on a team that's more friendly for running back fantasy points than the Panthers.
14:26>> think I actually don't think so. I mean, the Panthers have been pretty good offense for for rushing production.
14:32Including Rico Dowdle.
14:34>> Yeah. Damn >> Like that's where he was when he did that.
14:36>> Yeah.
14:36>> [laughter] >> That is where he was.
14:37>> that where that happened?
14:38>> No. No.
14:40He was I forgot where he was. He could have been anywhere. Um scratch that point from the record.
14:45>> [laughter] >> Cut out that last part.
14:48All right. People people are probably sick of us talking disagreeing about Brooks. Let's This team is actually This team is actually pretty fun.
14:55>> This team is really fun.
14:57>> Yeah.
14:58>> We haven't talked about it one time.
14:59Davante Adams falling all the way down here seems pretty We literally and and Sam, I'm going to insist we don't talk
15:05about this team. Let's just keep doing about something. You keep What's next?
15:09It doesn't matter what.
15:11>> [laughter] >> Let's just let this team build itself.
15:13>> Yeah.
15:15>> [laughter] >> This is great.
15:17Um >> Where you Where you at on Kyle Allen now cuz he's another guy >> Oh, yeah. divisive.
15:24>> Yeah, we we probably disagree here as well. I'm I'm pretty I'm pretty out on Toney where he goes. I know on DraftKings he goes like
15:32>> Are you Are you out in the sense that you're going to tweet about him, take him and win $2 million with him, or are
15:37you just out?
15:38>> Uh >> Cuz he feels Luther Burdeny to me.
15:40That's why I made that comment.
15:41>> [laughter] >> Is he feeling pretty Luther Burdeny?
15:44>> Okay.
15:45I I mean, if I have the power, I don't know if I have enough market-moving power to like get him. Oh my god,
15:51Kadarius.
15:52We got to >> [laughter] >> What's up with this?
15:55>> Just don't talk about the team, man.
15:58>> [laughter] >> Tell me more about Kadarius.
16:01>> Yeah, Kadarius is terrible. Huge huge bust, obviously. [laughter] Uh No, I I I am uh I mean, I think there there's a couple
16:10things, right? Like I think the the current situation he's in where he's injured, not getting the best camp buzz. I don't think that's anything
16:21close to like the death knell for a first-round receiver. Like I think some people are probably overreacting that a little bit.
16:28>> Also, like the Kadarius thing is kind of kind of ridiculous. Like he he's been playing with the ones. He had a
16:34hamstring thing. They, you know, they they're like we're not >> Yeah.
16:40>> we're focused on week one.
16:42Uh some of this stuff someone said like, "You know, he hasn't made like as many like big plays as I was hoping. It's
16:47kind of disappointing." Like Okay.
16:50Like shut up. Like that [laughter] doesn't mean anything. Like truly.
16:54>> Yeah.
16:54>> Like that just means literally nothing.
16:57He's playing with the ones.
16:59It's not like he's had a buried or concerning camp outside of the hamstring, which is which is concerning.
17:04We've lowered him on that. And missing a bunch of time, obviously, hurts.
17:08And then you have the health question in and of itself.
17:12So, you know, we've lowered Kadarius Toney in the in the Sims and in the rankings rankings and everything on on that, but
17:20you know, there's different levels to this stuff.
17:22Um and I I don't [clears throat] think his camp has been concerning from like what the plans look to be for him. I mean, even now, like
17:29Hertz is like, yeah, he's like he's coming in, he's doing all the stuff with with Smitty, like he's in the huddle
17:34with us, like kind of going through mentally with the right Like he's preparing to be a starter still. Um probably in three wide receiver sets
17:40with Wix on the outside to start, but that's honestly been my expectation the entire time.
17:45>> Yeah, [snorts] I think that's how it's how it's going to start. And then yeah, I I I just think a couple things in
17:50Philadelphia. Obviously, I expect them to be a high-scoring offense. I do think a lot of that is going to be, as it
17:56always is with the Eagles, a lot of rushing touchdowns, a lot of Jalen Hurts tush pushes, like a little bit less
18:02touchdown expectation uh compared to the normal wide receiver group on a good team. There's some variance there, that could change. I also just think that
18:10like there is decent depth on this team. Like Dallas Goedert is is pretty steadily involved in the offense over the years. Quez Watkins, you know,
18:21likely starter in two wide receiver sets ahead of Here, let's make a pick here.
18:26Um Paul I mean, I'd take so much Pollard, but that's what I would probably do.
18:33>> I think he makes sense for the team.
18:35>> Yeah.
18:37Yeah.
18:38>> Sure.
18:38>> We we're used to just like absolute amazing picks round after round.
18:43>> Yeah, Tony Pollard never quite >> Getting Pollard like kind of past ADP just like feels like boring now, but uh
18:50I'm pretty into it.
18:52>> Yeah. I just think it's going to be a low pass attempt offense. I don't think there's like that high of likelihood of Le'Veon to like
19:00really consolidate in this offense. I'm not even sure that >> need to consolidate, though. Like he doesn't He's He's going in the eighth
19:07round now. Like if he consolidates, he is going to be the guy you had to draft.
19:12If he consolidates volume oh of DeVonta Smith, he would be an absolute giga smash.
19:17>> Yeah, I guess I mean I think that's very unlikely that he consolidates ahead of Smith. I was saying I don't think it's
19:22likely that he consolidates like a alpha 1B target share, like a 25% target share. And then if you're talking about a guy in the like 22 to like 17% or
19:33whatever range on the Eagles, like I actually I'm not sure that that is that valuable in the context of of their
19:40offense. Um Probably Godwin for me. Um >> Yeah, I'm into Godwin, too. I'm trying to get a little more Godwin.
19:51>> Yeah.
19:52>> Pretty underweight.
19:53>> Yeah, so I I I don't know. I I just think he's like I think he's pricey.
19:57Like I think we can also talk about um >> So, price that is See, that kind of it drives me That's crazy to me that he's pricey.
20:06This is a first-round pick.
20:09Like maybe it's a prospect profile thing for me, but like he had it In my mind, he had he's an awesome prospect.
20:15He's a guy who had a true breakout season at USC alongside Jakobi Lane, which now seems like even more impressive. But like Jakobi
20:25Lane was drafted in the third round.
20:26It's not like he didn't have any target competition. Lane's balling out now. And he was he was clearly ahead of Lane.
20:32He profiles as a guy who draws targets at variety of depths, who played inside and outside. He's got the size to play
20:40you know, on the outside eventually.
20:41Probably starts in the slot.
20:43And we have seen rookie wide receivers absolutely smash eighth-round ADPs.
20:50We're talking about first-round wide receivers. Like you don't have to become this like dominant player over the course of the season. If you do, it's
20:58just like you win the money. You know, like it it's kind of it's kind of crazy the upside that we have with a guy like this
21:06if he's going to be in the eighth round or even the ninth round. If he falls to sometimes the 10th round, you can get
21:10him depending on the site.
21:12That like Luther Burden literally won you $2 million and he didn't play for and he didn't play for most of the
21:19season. Like he like the what Le Man can do >> I got him, I had him at like pick 120 something, right? I mean, he wasn't
21:26going there all off season, but I do think that's a pretty big difference.
21:29>> Le Man's going to play a lot more than Luther Burden did last year cuz he's going to be playing in the slot.
21:34It's I mean assuming he's healthy, he's going to play in the slot right away. He's going to have a a legit
21:40role out of the gate assuming he's healthy.
21:44And you know, yeah, like you could throw in less 16 17% target share for him if you want, but like I
21:50I think if it's higher than that, it could be a lot higher than that.
21:53Because he's he's an he's potentially an awesome NFL receiver given the prospect profile that we have on him.
22:01And like, you know, Dontayvion Wicks I'm pretty sure that's going to look silly when you think about the upside of a guy like Le Man. When you think about
22:10who [snorts] what the upside is on this profile, Dontayvion Wicks does not factor into that by the end of the season. And so, from a
22:17season-long perspective I can see some bearishness for Le Man.
22:22From a how do we win tournaments where week 15 equals week 1 through 14 and then we reset again the bear case is is extremely weak in my
22:33opinion. It's it's just it's he's clearly clearly a value in the eighth round.
22:38>> Can we go to the the ADP here? Just curious who else is available.
22:43Um Yeah, no one no one's really jumping out. I I'm fine with Dobbins unless you Oh, Nicks, I guess we can wait on Nicks.
22:54>> I think we can probably get Nicks coming back in with Lamar.
22:58>> Yeah.
22:59>> And then we we we build on the the Denver pick.
23:02>> This spot is so small. That's That's not overlapping by weeks with uh Eagle or sorry with the Eagles and Ravens is it?
23:10>> It's not. No.
23:12>> Yeah.
23:15I mean, I guess >> Nicks immediately get sniped.
23:18>> Uh bummer.
23:19>> That's a bummer.
23:21>> A couple thoughts on more thoughts on Lemon. I get it's like not the same exact situation, but like if you think about DeVonta Smith during
23:30his rookie year, maybe that's like somewhat similar of a comp, similar level prospect.
23:37Um Smith was maybe a little bit better, drafted a little bit higher. I don't know. You could debate that. Um and then his rookie year was kind of the
23:45only wide receiver, only you know, town or only, you know, really I'm trying to remember who else was in that 2021 year.
23:53>> We're on the clock. The receivers here are jumping up for receiver four. We do have Baker as well with Godwin.
23:59If you're worried about quarterback.
24:01>> Uh yeah, I'd probably just go Baker, I think.
24:06>> Okay.
24:06>> Um just cuz I don't Yeah. So, anyways, DeVonta Smith that rookie season on the Eagles had a had a
24:16great season, you know, 64 receptions, 915 yards, five touchdowns. Obviously, if you got that with you know, [snorts] uh Quez Watkins this
24:26season, you would be pretty happy.
24:30But I am just Again, that was like a very good target share, consolidated uh position on the Eagles offense. And the
24:40other receivers in that room were pulling it up here. Um Quez Watkins, Jalen Reagor, uh Dallas Goedert was
24:50there, uh Greg Ward, J.J.
24:52Arcega-Whiteside. Like that that was the wide receiver competition that DeVonta Smith had his rookie year, just absolute dust competition with Jalen Hurts as a
25:00quarterback, and he got to a fine season, 900 yards, five touchdowns.
25:04I'm very skeptical that Lemon can hit that with Devonta Smith being in the room as the established alpha, and I think better depth than guys like Wix,
25:13um and, you know, Stowers as also another rookie option on the team. So, >> Yeah. I don't know. I think what I think
25:21where you're getting like when you think about him compared to a Devonta Smith, I think where you're really losing out is the beginning of the season where,
25:29you know, the idea that he's going to come in like Devonta Smith had six for 71 and a touchdown in his very first NFL
25:35game.
25:36So, are we getting that? No, we're not getting that, you know, and uh we had like Devonta Smith had scored like 3.6 points, 5.8 points in weeks two
25:45and three. That's more likely what I think we're going to get from from Makai Lemon, but you have these spikes from Smith over the course of the
25:52season, and the spikes were more back-weighted as you do sometimes see it at receiver.
25:59I think Lemon is is likely to play more as the season goes on cuz he's going to have to go through Wix, which I think
26:05he'll if he's any good will will be able to do. Rodriguez is top guy here.
26:10Uh we have stacked Andrews, Kelce, >> Yeah.
26:15>> Um Chio Andrews for the stack. I don't care. We could probably get him around coming around, too.
26:22We we timed into or timed out into >> Rodriguez, uh which is fine.
26:27>> that's fine. That's fine.
26:29I like Rodri Rodriguez. I think like it's weird that he he fell a bunch with like the injury news, and now he's back
26:34healthy.
26:35>> No, he never recovered. Yeah.
26:36>> Yeah, he hasn't budged at all. I I thought that he was going to shoot back up. So, I've been He's kind of like the last of a tier for
26:44me in this range. Like once it's between him and then like Keaton, Woody Marks, Tyron Tracy, I've been liking him a lot
26:50around this pick, so.
26:53>> Yeah, I think like the the Leeman thing for me is that I just I just don't care that much if I'm
26:59if I'm losing some early season production from my eighth round high upside receiver pick. Like it does he still profile as a guy who
27:09can go in the third round or the fourth round next year? Absolutely, he does.
27:13He's a better prospect than Luther Burden.
27:16Like clearly was a better prospect than Luther Burden.
27:18You know, here we are at Luther Burden in the fourth round after he didn't play much his rookie season.
27:24Did you want to go Andrews here or >> Yeah, I I like going Andrews here.
27:27>> Yeah, okay.
27:29Um >> We're going to have to start hitting hitting wide receiver hard, I guess.
27:34>> Yeah, we're at we're at three receivers, Waddle, Adams, and Godwin.
27:38>> Yeah. Okay.
27:39>> So, I assume we're just going to slam receivers and and tight ends to close cuz we're at five running backs, two
27:43quarterbacks, we're good at both.
27:45>> done with running back for sure.
27:47>> Yeah, so we're just receiver receiver tight end for the next uh rest of the draft. Um But yeah, it's the
27:59This is an offense that has supported two wide receivers for a long time, including Dallas Goedert.
28:04Dallas Goedert's gotten his and we've gotten two wide receivers. I don't think uh we're looking at a guy who's as good
28:09as A.J. Brown, obviously.
28:12But, you know, DeVonta Smith I don't think is also going to become like a JSN. I mean, there's a chance he
28:19does.
28:20But like where he just like everything, you know, he's the whole offense. So, really I'm betting that over the course of the year
28:27this really really good prospect who fell in the draft and still went in the 20s, >> [snorts] >> you know, can become the clear number
28:35two at wide receiver on a team that like I like the Manion hire. I I'm excited about what this offense can do. I think
28:42they're going to be a lot more efficient than they were last year, a lot more exciting.
28:46Uh I think they're going to utilize play action more. They're going to play under center more, do some do some more
28:50creative stuff.
28:52This is an offense where I think having the the number two and that player is good could be a pretty awesome thing in
28:58December.
28:59And it just from from a zoomed out macro level like a player a rookie wide receiver this good should just basically
29:07never be in the eighth round.
29:09Like he he has to would have to be like a very serious injury. I mean we took JSN we were correctly saying this is too much to
29:17pay. But we were taking JSN when he was the wide receiver three on the Seahawks in the fifth and sixth round.
29:23And >> Yeah.
29:24>> he has since proven to be a monster.
29:27He didn't pay off that ADP mostly. He did score a touchdown in week 15 or 16 which helped get get a team through for
29:34me which I very much appreciated but largely he was a bust there.
29:37Um, but you know, this is like a three round discount on that now and a much much clearer path.
29:43So yeah. I just think from from an ADP to talent perspective it's it's pretty pretty ridiculous. I'm going to throw some receivers in the queue but who
29:51jumps out?
29:51>> Yeah.
29:52Um man, I have so much Cooper and he's just getting cheaper and cheaper but I'd probably still take him here.
29:59>> Yeah, me too.
30:01>> Um yeah, like I I I I wanted to bring up the JSN thing earlier because it just it is a bit of a reminder that these
30:08players can be very good prospects and like long-term successes in the NFL and just be set up in bad situations in year
30:16one and that's just kind of what I lean towards with Legette.
30:19I I think also like stylistic fit-wise a more of a possession uh receiver over the middle type of guy.
30:27That not saying that's all Legette can do but >> He's really good after the catch so I think possession is a little derogatory
30:33but >> But sorry, I don't mean I don't mean possession in the uh >> Yeah.
30:37>> I yeah, I mean in the like he is going to win in the short and intermediate um catch the ball over the middle, do stuff
30:43after the catch. I'll If he hits it, like kind of looks like Amon-Ra St. Brown, like that Rashee Rice non-derogatory type of way.
30:51Um >> I think he looks more like JSN in that he can I don't think he'll be as good as JSN, but it's more of that
30:57kind of like um you know a variety of depths. He's not He gets compared to Amon-Ra a lot. I don't think he's actually
31:06limited to that kind of style.
31:08>> I'm pretty out on Jaylen. I'd rather do Trey Tucker for good what you're saying in that flip.
31:13>> Sure.
31:16>> Not like either of them are >> [laughter] >> most exciting picks for me, but um Yeah, I I >> [sighs and gasps]
31:27>> Yeah, I think I think we found the two players that we probably disagree on.
31:30>> Yeah, this is we we did it. I put him on the thumbnail and uh >> [laughter] >> Yeah, yeah, they took the whole episode.
31:38Yeah, I mean the we we obviously get stuff wrong with this.
31:44Um like Quentin Johnston was in the eighth round, first-round pick, early declare, breakout season, checked a lot of boxes analytically, mega bust
31:55uh year one.
31:57Uh you know, uh Rashod Bateman I liked coming out, bust. Treylon Burks was going in the eighth round, bust. You know, these guys are
32:07they're a boom bust, you know, the the the even the round one guys, like there is a low floor to this type of pick because he might
32:14suck.
32:16But I think you have a just a ton of room to run to the upside if he doesn't suck. Uh because you're
32:23it's like in retrospect, because we do this stuff like this all the time, you know, it's like well, this guy's blocked by this like
32:29veteran who we've never really cared about or did never really done much in just like a essentially like the first year of him being being a journeyman
32:37veteran.
32:38Um if he's good, that just doesn't matter.
32:42If if the if the first round rookie is good, like we the journeyman veterans don't block them.
32:48You know?
32:48>> Yeah.
32:50I think for me it's just like even if you're really optimistic about Quez Watkins, the the reason that DeVonta Smith and
32:58A.J. Brown have both paid off together on the Eagles is one because they're both amazing players. I think we all agree on
33:04that. And two, because they have like consolidated the two of them have consolidated massive target shares as like a one-two punch.
33:11And I am just like skeptical if I'm wrong that that that can happen with Quez Watkins.
33:18Um I'll be wrong here, but I just think the odds of that are much lower. And if you give him like a solid number two
33:23target share on this offense, oh, uh I like Parris Campbell here the the best among them. I like Dell too. Those would
33:32Those would be the top two guys that I see. Um Parris Campbell has been getting some some interest. He's been getting some
33:37buzz, yeah.
33:38Yeah. I like him.
33:40Dell looks like he's he's been healthy too, which has been good to see. I've I've warmed on him a little bit. Um
33:49I just worry in Houston that it's going to be like a ton of 12 personnel. Nico Collins is always on the field, and then
33:55it's like a rotation of the other three guys a little bit in a way that's going to be frustrating. Like the the incentive to
34:01play Tank Tank Dell in a huge role I think is low this year, but I think he could still still have big weeks. If he comes back
34:09here, I think he's he's probably good for this team.
34:12>> Yeah, I agree.
34:15Yeah, I mean, you know, to your point, do I expect that Quez Watkins will immediately consolidate work to the extent that
34:23DeVonta Smith did with DeVonta Smith becoming the new A.J. Brown from a target share perspective? I don't. You know, that would be awesome,
34:30but like if I thought that, then I would take Mecole Hardman in the fourth round.
34:35Where I used to take Devonta Smith.
34:37>> [laughter] >> Like >> Yeah, yeah.
34:38>> Like I don't You know, like I don't I don't think I can make that happen.
34:42>> To end this in an in an agreement, uh do you at least agree that Mecole Hardman's like a much better redraft
34:50than than best ball pick? Cuz that's I think where I where I am with him.
34:55>> I don't agree with that, no.
34:57>> Oh, [ __ ] Okay. Well, let's let's let's just end the stream.
35:01Um I don't love Ted Ginn, to be honest, but uh >> He's had a pretty sweet >> Okay. Oh, yeah. We have We have Baker or
35:11whatever. Yeah. Yeah, we have Baker.
35:13Okay.
35:14>> I think if we want Keenan, we probably get him. Keenan just went undrafted in the draft I was in.
35:18>> Okay. Do we need I guess looking at our team, it's kind of luxury pick time. Luxury pick time with the exception of running
35:26back, I guess. And we're not going to take a quarterback cuz these guys are pretty pretty dusty. So, probably wide receiver, tight end.
35:34>> Uh Yeah, wide receiver, tight end, I think.
35:38>> Okay.
35:38>> We're we're we're good. Like we're good at quarterback, we're good at running back.
35:42Um >> Geno, uh yeah, I don't think we need Geno on this team. I'd rather do like a Cade Otton for a third tight end or
35:50man, Cedrick If Cedrick does go, it's Cedrick is a bummer. How I I think he kind of is like properly priced in like the 17th
35:59>> Yeah.
35:59>> rounds now. It's it's a bummer how how things have gone for him. It's >> The The reason I say that about Hardman
36:05is that I think with Hardman, like when we're building out a best ball team, you're trying to find these guys who can deliver like
36:14really, really high-end upside, you know, at various points in the season. And Hardman will probably be a frustrating guy to have in a managed league setting
36:24early in the season. Now, he is cheaper on FFPC and stuff. So, that does make him, you know, I like him and the
36:30cheaper you can make him, I do like him there.
36:33>> Yeah.
36:34>> I'll give you that. Like >> Yeah.
36:35>> Yeah, if he's cheaper, then sure, I do like him more. But, like purely from an archetype perspective, I actually just
36:42prefer him on Best Bestball. I'm like, I'm locking in this season with Lemon, which I think I'm going to enjoy from a
36:47season-long perspective, even though it might be like September 30th and I'm like, this sucks. You know?
36:54>> Yeah.
36:54>> So, the it's like that kind of longer-term view and I don't have a chance to to change.
37:02Whatever I do is locked in. I'm not going to have to worry about cutting this guy or when to start him or you
37:08know, hey, he was up to 70% raw participation this week and then he falls to 55% when I actually put in my
37:14lineup and now I'm pissed off. Like that could be a headache, you know?
37:19I think for Bestball, just like making the more macro bet of I think this guy is going to easily pay off in a round
37:25ADP over the course of a season in a format that really uh we got Bernard, we got Sarault.
37:31>> Yeah, Bernard I like a little better.
37:34>> Okay.
37:35>> Um >> Um >> I'm not really taking much Sarault.
37:42>> Yeah, he's he's definitely >> falling down the ranks a little bit. I think he's popping here cuz we have Lamar and we have a receiver.
37:51>> Yeah, keep him in that.
37:51>> But, you see that once we he's clearly not like you know, some great some crazy good pick.
37:58>> Cuz in 2021, he's not at the top of the cycle.
38:00>> Hickman's still still available. I guess he's a little banged up here.
38:03>> do We could do Bateman if you want.
38:05>> I could be on the >> Yeah, I I like No, no, he just went.
38:09>> Yeah.
38:10Um these Yeah.
38:12Chris Bell, Sarault, Ridley.
38:17Is Ridley Did you guys lower your rank on on Ridley? I feel like >> We did a bit.
38:22Um the guy just with like they keep talking about Amon-Ra and DK and uh I think by the end of the season we
38:30could be looking at Ridley being phased out type of stuff.
38:33>> I was I've been taking a little for like the He seems like trades candidate which could be, you know, he goes the route of
38:40Amari Cooper and turns the dust on his knee.
38:42>> I'm fine I'm fine with Ridley if you want to do that.
38:44>> You're fine with Ridley? Okay. I think I would do him over I know Sarault's stacked but I think >> We've got a bunch of rookies. I mean if
38:50we get some really solid production it could help.
38:53>> All right.
38:54>> Yeah. We got four rookies.
38:57>> Um All right, cool. Team's in the book. Uh >> I don't Other thing I I want last one on Lemon people I I feel for the people
39:08listening to this podcast we talked about Kadarius Toney for like >> Yeah, I feel like I feel like this is what they came for.
39:13>> This is what they've been arguing about until now.
39:16>> [laughter] >> They're like why are these guys arguing >> We figured we've been arguing all summer. We haven't.
39:20>> I used to hate each other in ADP Jason.
39:21What's What's up with this?
39:23>> That's right. So I decided to argue with Sam today. We only had an hour we figured we'd just yell at each other for
39:28the full 60 minutes.
39:30>> The other thing with with Lemon I was going to say is the gap on DraftKings versus Underdog is like shocking to me
39:36and has also made me just like feel comfortable with basically 0% on Underdog. It's like I know he's sliding now on Underdog but it was like pick 72
39:47versus like 99 on DraftKings. And that's where I feel like to me the fair price is so I I take Kadarius Toney on DraftKings. I get that
39:58if you guys are so high on him I get like if he's a conviction play for you guys I get like you can take him on both
40:04sides if you if you're that into him makes sense but for me I'm just like man it's such a price gap that it feels
40:12like I can just get my exposure on DraftKings there.
40:17>> Yeah, rookies give you a chance to have the market just be really overconfident in who a guy is and then we find out
40:24that he's a dude. And Leeman has a good just some of the best chances of of being a dude of all the rookie wide receivers in
40:33this class.
40:34And of you know, when you look at across classes, he's just he's in he's a very high it's not even just that he's a good
40:46prospect which he which he is. I would say he's he's not an elite prospect but he's a great prospect.
40:52It's like what his what makes him stand out is very fantasy friendly. Like it's the ability to draw targets, add after
40:59the catch. He's not really like from an NFL perspective, maybe he gets to where he's like a field stretcher but he probably isn't
41:10that dude.
41:12You know, but he's more like when he hits, he hits in a way that earns fantasy points. I think is another
41:19part of it for me. We're like Carnell Tate who I also really like, one of my reservations with Tate is like
41:26he could be better in real life than fantasy.
41:29You know?
41:30And that's that's another thing with Leeman where he just like, but look, I mean, with Luther Burden last year, I was drafting Luther Burden
41:40before he fell.
41:41Then I was drafting him after he fell.
41:43And I was drafting him after he fell again and after he fell again cuz it it looked like increasingly less likely
41:49that he would have an early season role which we then accounted for and we're like this is still a smash where he's
41:57going.
41:58You're going to have to wait it out but what if if he hits, he has, you know, this is a very high upside type of
42:04player when he gets on the field and and he's likely to get on the field at some point. And so yeah, he was never
42:12as expensive as Lemon and he eventually ended up quite cheaper than Lemon is now.
42:17But like with that kind of play, I I don't want to be like super precise about the price to be honest.
42:24Like we've talked about Jacob Sanderson's written about this like the seventh round, eighth round, ninth round pretty flat this year. So like okay, like yeah,
42:32now that he's in the eighth, I'd rather wait until the eighth. If he falls to the ninth and I know I'm getting him in
42:37the ninth, I'll wait till the ninth.
42:38But like am I gaining that much in the grand scheme of things?
42:42Like what what does it really matter?
42:45And am I missing out on one of the profiles that could be like the key to actually taking down these tournaments? I think I would be. So I
42:55just don't you know, obviously it feels better to draft guys when and then they go up than draft them and they fall.
43:03Um but this is the type of player I I do feel conviction about and I'm going to continue drafting unless we get some
43:10pretty bearish news on the hamstring.
43:15>> That's fair. That seems fair.
43:17>> All right.
43:18>> Um you want to do >> [laughter] >> I had a couple I I had a couple good jokes, but your monologue went on for
43:25too long and I and oh I was going to say like you're making the Luther Burden point. And I was going to be like, well,
43:31yeah, I don't I don't know if that guy ever won anybody money, so >> [laughter] >> I don't really understand why you're
43:36bringing that up.
43:37>> cuz you described >> Yeah, a horrible pick. Horrible pick.
43:40>> Um Should we do a couple quick hits? I I do have 10 minutes on some of the the new stuff. I'm curious your thoughts on two
43:45situations. One, I know it's a little bit deep, but the Darren Waller thing I think is at least somewhat interesting just because it is a wide open tight end
43:54room in Carolina.
43:56Um they also lost Chris Brazell, so their wide receiver depth chart is a little bit weaker. Waller did have 21% targets per route run, 1.75 yards per
44:04route run last year. Was also like heavily used in the red zone by Miami.
44:08Just like by the eye test, I actually thought like he still had had some juice left uh in that system. So, curious what
44:15you guys have have done with Waller. Is he like last round last couple rounds draftable for you or how are you
44:21treating him?
44:22>> Yeah, where did he go here?
44:24Did he go?
44:25>> Um Did he go?
44:29>> So, you can see let's we'll pull down.
44:31Uh And we didn't need Yeah, so I we're Did he go?
44:43>> Uh I don't see him unless he went crazy high.
44:47>> Yeah, so he was Yeah, he didn't go. So, he wasn't popping here. He's not really near the top of the sidekick. We're not
44:54The thing with Waller that's tough is like we're I I assume he's going to be a part-time role. I'm not sure like how high the
45:02ceiling ultimately is with him at this point. Uh you know, McDaniel got some out of him, but um you know, it
45:13Like I I get he he's more like he's actually more of a redraft pick, I think, in cuz you kind of would like to
45:20see what it is and then if it's nothing, you just move on.
45:23Um That's where I feel about it right now.
45:25I I'm not and and probably more of a DraftKings 20 round type guy as well.
45:31>> Okay.
45:32>> But, there's a lot of other guys down here. Like, I'd rather take swings on I to be honest, Charlie Kolar who's
45:39apparently like moving around the formation now and doing stuff receiving tight ends do. So, that that could be that could be fun.
45:45Um Eli Raridon, I've been trying to take some swings on. He also went undrafted here, it looks like.
45:52So, there's other guys that I think by the end of the season could be more impactful uh than than Waller. I'm not sure what
46:01Waller is getting me like you know, is an advanced rate piece in an environment where like Juwan Johnson, Greg Dulcich,
46:13Dalton Schultz, A.J. Barner, T.J.
46:14Hockenson, like all these guys, you know, these boring Cade Otton, these boring kind of starter guys, they're all really cheap.
46:22Um so yeah, that's that's where I'm at.
46:25What are you a little bit more bullish?
46:28>> I'm a little more bullish just cuz of what he showed last year. I know it was like a small sample, but I mean he had
46:34he played very limited games last year.
46:36I think he played like eight games and he had, you know, he actually his first two games he played he scored 18 and 19
46:43PPR points in those two games while while running like 50% of the routes.
46:48And then he also came back towards the end of the season in week 15 and had a 26 PPR point game. So I think he's just
46:56like a little bit different from like I he's totally different from like the Cade Otton, Colby Parkinson types in that like it's it's much more variable,
47:05higher odds of being a zero, but like I could also see if T-Mac misses a couple games, like Darren Waller could be the focal point of the
47:14downfield passing attack in a way that like Cade Otton and Colby Parkinson can never be. Like he he can get shot plays
47:22down the field, which I think is interesting in best ball. So Um yeah, I'm a little more bullish. I would have him in I think like 18th
47:31round draftable like I saw him next to these guys, so >> We might, you know, it's one we got we we we talked about it uh last night, got
47:41it got him in the sims and everything, got him in the rankings. It's one I'm down to revisit. Maybe maybe there's a
47:46little bit more I mean, it's sort of like what is the plan? What are they what are they going to be
47:51>> Yeah.
47:52>> talking about as a plan as and how much of a full-time guy does he have a chance to be Uh but
47:58it's definitely one I could see moving up on if we you know, if we start to feel like, "Hey, he's going to
48:04he's going to like run 65% of the routes, you know, and then for as long as that lasts."
48:10>> Yeah.
48:10>> Um So, yeah. I mean, if that if we thought that, then we'd definitely move up. Um And what was the other situation?
48:18>> Oh, the the Alec Pierce thing I've been interested in because like he's Today specifically, I did a draft and he was
48:25at there at like pick 110.
48:27And I was like, "That Like I'm I'm scooping that." I hear he also went pretty So, 10.3, that would be like around pick uh 100
48:36>> 111, yeah.
48:38>> 111, so sim- similar here. Um Yeah, the reports on this one are like like kind of all over the place. Like
48:45Ballard has had some quotes where they're like, "Everything's on track.
48:48There was no injection. There was no setback." And then there's these like clips of him walking around that look uh a little bit more bearish than
48:56than what they're saying. So, I Yeah, curious like what Do you guys have like big injury docs on him with the news? I know you weren't high on him
49:05to even to even begin with, but um curious your thoughts on the Pierce situation.
49:08>> the thing with Alec Pierce is that he is being um he's being asked to uh Hang on. Let me just get this
49:20in there. I've been like not not marking them and I'm need to like go back and do like a little project for myself like week week
49:27two, probably. during the games just >> tell you. If we cash this team and I don't get my 1750 or whatever it is for
49:35the min cash, I'm coming after you, Pat.
49:37You better You better label us too.
49:39>> Hey, that's why I'm on That's why I labeled it, okay?
49:41>> Hey.
49:42>> People see I'm doing it. Um >> This is I I got to say this before you give your I I searched Alec Pierce on Twitter and
49:50the first search thing that comes up is Alec Pierce deception perception, not reception perception. That that's That's the auto the auto fill if you search
50:00Alec Pierce, so um seems bearish.
50:03Anyways, go go ahead.
50:04>> I I'm I'm in some ways the Alec Pierce bull on our team and I'm pretty I'm pretty much a non-believer, so you know,
50:11just to give you some context there, but I think like they clearly signaled they would like him to basically become like their Terry
50:19McLaurin, right? Or you know, like maybe like a Courtland Sutton, you know, from a a couple years ago type of guy where you're like the
50:26number one target, but you're also the primary field stretcher.
50:30And you know, that's DK Metcalf has operated in that role for you know, when he was in Seattle, you know, where you're like
50:38you're drawing targets at actually pretty high rate, but you're also like responsible for challenging the defense deep. And
50:49it's not a super common role. The The more common role, I mean, Nico Collins I guess would would also be a a guy like
50:55that, too, but the more common role is that you're you're kind of the field stretcher who can earn targets some, but
51:01you're not going to be like the number one.
51:05And that's what Pierce has been to date.
51:08They rearrange a bunch of things. They let They trade Pitman. Um they trade Adonai Mitchell.
51:14They don't really bring anybody else in.
51:17We'll see if they eventually sign Keenan or whatever, but like this is all of a sudden he's gone from a really deep wide
51:21receiver group to a pretty thin one, especially on the outside, all in a way that like very, very clearly signals they had different plans
51:28for for this offense and they were going to be built around Alec Pierce. The problem that Pierce has is that I think
51:34he's actually the third best target earner on his team behind Josh Downs and Tyler Warren. Warren schematically, you know, maybe he's not earning it as much,
51:43it's more drawn up, whatever. But like target per route run stuff, I'm the least confident in him of those three.
51:51And now with an offense that was supposed to be kind of designed and built around him in a new way, he's
51:56missing the entire off-season. So, it does make me pretty nervous about can he complete this jump into a new role
52:06or is he basically going to be more like what he has been um and you might have deal with him missing games to boot. So,
52:16yeah, I mean like in the 10th round it's certainly better, but like I guess I'd take him ahead of Rashid Shaheed.
52:25You know, >> [laughter] >> and and so he's getting close to Rashid Shaheed, but that's I think he's a he's probably, you know,
52:34missing this amount of time, he's he's trending toward a Shaheed type role, which is what he has been to this point
52:41in his career.
52:42I I think it just becomes hard to, you know, we with Shaheed last year we got that it's hard to move a boarding train stuff, and
52:49that was with an offensive coordinator that he'd already worked with, but like can their offense really be like first read built around Alec Pierce stuff
52:58right now, or are they tinkering and moving, you know, towards a more of a a Tyler Warren centric approach or, you know, kind of Josh
53:05Downs and Tyler Warren is is the primary reads on a lot of plays as Alec Pierce works back. Do you know what I mean?
53:12Like this was going to be like a full like like redesign around Alec Pierce, I think. That was where his upside came in
53:18and it's harder to see that happening now.
53:22>> Yeah.
53:23I I I agree with that. Like I would I think the story of him becoming a bigger part of the offense is a lot easier to
53:29believe if he had been healthy all off-season and integrated into whatever that new offense looks like. Um I guess like throwing the injury thing aside,
53:38like if we did were to assume he was healthy, I do think like I was kind of into him in the late '80s or early '90s
53:46or whatever he was going. Um he you're right, he's not a big target earner.
53:52That said, like the a seven 17% targets per route run when your A dot is 20 is just absolutely insane. Like that If it
54:01was like that >> value what whatever depth adjusted targets per route run, like you you know the value of each target is like
54:09extremely high for him in some ways. Um >> Well, what I was saying is like the weighted targets per route run where you
54:15incorporate the air yards.
54:16>> Yes.
54:17>> Like that Yeah, I mean he's But I think like that that is true.
54:22>> like Jamo, right? It's kind of Jamo is like Jamo is very much like Jamo.
54:26>> Yeah.
54:27>> Yeah, so that's like um my like really bad take is like Don't Don't cancel me for this, but if Alec Pierce
54:35Yeah, if he had a different skin color, you know, maybe wasn't named Alec Pierce.
54:41I'm just saying. I I It's >> [laughter] >> I think you get the white man You get the white man's discount on Alec Pierce.
54:49I >> Okay.
54:51>> [laughter] >> All right.
54:53All right, got to wrap up the show on that.
54:54>> And on that note >> I think we got to end the episode.
54:58>> [laughter] >> Sam, anything you want to shout out?
55:00You're doing You're You're doing some really interesting podcasts these days with the >> [laughter] >> Yeah, my my race-based stuff and takes
55:10are really making [laughter] making the circuit now.
55:13Uh Breitbart, find me there now. Um >> Right-wing slaps this for Sam. We're putting We're putting analysts on the slaps this now.
55:20>> [laughter] >> Uh no, just Sam all stuff. I'm I I think I mentioned this to you. I'm actually out next week both Best Ball Breakfast
55:29and and the show. Um got a work trip international, so I will not be able to make it. So, bummed to miss out on that,
55:35but I will be excited to be back the the following week which with some more pretty season data when I'm back. So, looking forward to
55:42that.
55:43>> Unfortunately, that's not what we're going to be talking about. I've already got the thumbnail set up for 2 weeks from now and it's Jonathan Brooks and
55:48Mecole Hardman.
55:50So, we're going to be talking about those two guys.
55:52>> [laughter] >> Round two, baby.
55:53>> If you make me do that again, I'll just admit you're right. Honestly, I I can't do it. I'll I'll be
55:58like, "Sure, yeah. Now, I agree."
56:00Um let's see.
56:01>> Well, we're definitely doing it again then.
56:03>> [laughter] >> No, we'll be we'll be talking through a a ton of a ton of news will be in our
56:10laps at that point. We can we can dissect that. I'll figure out a guest next week and yeah, let people know.
56:17Check out everything we got going on at legendary upside. We've soft launched over at Check out apps.legendaryupside.com.
56:24It's It's a site you you might enjoy checking out.
56:27There's There's ways to look at your exposures and your uh uh the teams that you drafted to date.
56:35Some some cool stuff going on. I'm we're we're kind of in soft launch phase right now. Want people to test it out, play
56:40around with it.
56:41Let us know what they think. So, apps.legendaryupside.com. Check it out.
56:45And uh we'll be back here on the leg up channel on Monday with Greg Brunos for legendary coach speak. Until then, good
56:53luck in your drafts and thanks for watching.
