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Angles and Upside Week 8 w/ Rich Hribar

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

3 hr 38 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Oct 31, 2026

Published

Sat, October 31, 2026

16

Player insights

16

Players mentioned

Topics

Chase BrownD.J. MooreDawson KnoxDerrick HenryJa'Marr ChaseJames CookJonathan TaylorJosh AllenKeon ColemanKhalil ShakirLamar JacksonMark AndrewsMichael MayerTee Higgins

Player analysis

Player insights

16

Chase Brown

PositiveMatchup11:36

Bengals RB in favorable game script spot as 12-point home favorites against Titans; owns 75% of snaps in the backfield and has 15% target share (Perine at 0%), indicating he's the clear focal point despite recent dormancy. Titans allow 25 backfield runs per game and have been giving up 5.5 yards per carry the past two weeks. While he's a passenger in the Bengals' pass-heavy offense (not the primary driver), the source expects the Bengals to get him involved through script in the second half and create scoring opportunities. Brown is fundamentally limited as a runner and pass catcher (minus 8 rush yards over expected per game, RB 73 ranking; RB 56 per attempt; RB 47 in EPA success rate), creating a lower floor and lower ceiling than his role suggests, though he can still have strong games in favorable matchups and projects as an RB1 this week.

D.J. Moore

PositiveRole37:03

DJ Moore's return from injury should unlock Josh Allen's passing efficiency and the Bills' downfield attack. When Moore was on the field this season, Allen averaged just under 10 yards per pass attempt; without him over the past three games, Allen is 12 of 29 (26th in the league) on throws 10+ yards downfield, compared to 66% with Moore active (which would rank second for the season). Moore's presence also benefits Dalton Concade, who nearly doubles his yards per route run when Moore is on the field, opening up the deep ball and lifting the entire offense's scoring potential. Against the Ravens, who rank 22nd in points allowed to WR1s and 30th in yards per target allowed to those receivers, Moore is set up well.

Dawson Knox

NegativeProjection42:22

Dawson Knox is identified as a potential touchdown target in the Josh Allen game environment, reflecting the unpredictability of Allen's touchdown distribution across multiple receivers. Josh Palmer had a touchdown in each of the first two games of the season when Allen threw eight touchdowns across five different receivers in those two weeks.

Derrick Henry

NegativeProjection25:00

Henry's efficiency has collapsed this season despite the Ravens' run-first approach. He averaged the fewest yards before contact of his career, ranks RB29 in rush yards over expected per attempt, RB31 in RYOE per game, RB38 and RB26 in success rate metrics, and RB50 in elusive rating; age appears to be catching up with him as he's not breaking tackles effectively. The patchwork offensive line (now missing Vega Ioneion to MCL injury) has hindered run game effectiveness. Despite efficiency concerns, the source views him as an RB1 type play in this game environment given the Ravens' balanced offensive approach and touchdown upside, though snap fragility exists as he sometimes loses carries to backup Justice Hill. The Ravens are three-point road underdogs, which could force them to abandon their balanced offensive approach and chuck the ball in the second half, potentially hurting Henry's volume and touchdown opportunity.

Ja'Marr Chase

PositiveMatchup17:26

Chase is the cover boy for Week 8 against the Titans, who rank 26th in completion rate allowed to wide receivers and 23rd in yards per target on intermediate throws. Ben Solak produced a detailed 10-minute breakdown of the defensive attention Chase received last week and how teams are playing him, which has created openings for his teammates. The source notes this is an awesome setup for Chase to exploit the Titans' weakness.

James Cook

PositiveProjection40:54

James Cook is a highly efficient running back who requires touchdown production and volume to succeed in DFS tournaments. His pass-game involvement varies based on backup RB health: when Tai Johnson (who left week six with a hamstring injury) plays, Cook's route participation drops to low 30s; without Johnson, it rises to just under 50%. Cook's arc type is similar to Derrick Henry—he needs 100+ yards and multiple touchdowns to pay off. The source likes this setup for Cook as the home favorite against Baltimore, noting he's unlikely to be scripted out on the Bills and the Ravens may struggle with their defensive adjustments against Josh Allen's mobility.

Jonathan Taylor

NegativeMatchup15:36

Taylor has been mentioned in trade speculation with multiple teams; the Bengals and Seahawks are among the few teams whose Super Bowl odds would actually improve by acquiring him, though the Bengals' improvement depends on maintaining their pass-heavy approach rather than shifting to a balanced offense.

Josh Allen

PositiveProjection35:04

Josh Allen has a career-best setup when his defense allows 30+ points: since his 2020 breakout, he averages 30.4 fantasy points in such games and holds a winning record in this scenario. The Ravens have allowed 30+ points in four games this season and 29+ in all but one, creating an ideal environment for Allen to produce at an elite level. However, Allen's downfield passing accuracy has regressed significantly without DJ Moore; he's 12 of 29 (41%) on throws 10+ yards downfield over the past three games, ranking 26th in the league. With Moore on the field earlier in the season, he was at 66% accuracy, which would have ranked second over the full stretch.

Keon Coleman

NegativeRole40:50

Keon Coleman has maintained a decent role in the Bills offense with 1.93 yards per route run (efficient production) and approximately 70% route participation. He will continue to play a significant amount even with DJ Moore's return, as the other outside wide receiver alongside Moore.

Khalil Shakir

NegativeRole40:50

Khalil Shakir has had a decent role in the Bills offense and will continue to play a significant amount even with DJ Moore's return. The source estimates his route participation at approximately 70%, maintaining his slot role alongside the outside receivers.

Lamar Jackson

PositiveProjection21:47

Jackson is returning from injury with elite passing efficiency: 71% completion rate, 10 yards per attempt, 14 yards per completion, and over 6% touchdown rate. He has not yet played a full game with Zay Flowers, creating significant upside potential given their underlying metrics together. Against the Bills, the Ravens present a balanced-to-run approach with elite play action efficiency (third-most efficient team, Bills fourth-worst at defending it per drop back). Jackson has an established long-standing connection with Mark Andrews (28% target rate with Jackson vs. recent Huntley dynamic), and the source prefers Lamar stacking over Josh Allen stacking in this matchup, particularly when pairing Jackson with cheap Mark Andrews to capture volume.

Mark Andrews

PositiveValue28:21

At $3,400 on DraftKings, Andrews offers tournament leverage as a DFS play despite recent target rate decline over the last two weeks. He leads all tight ends in open score and maintains elite target metrics: 19% target share (88th percentile at tight end), 22% targets per route run (85th percentile), and 19% first read target rate (93rd percentile). Per-target efficiency is low at 5.5 yards per target (2.2 yards below expected), creating a low floor but ceiling upside exists in this favorable matchup. He's been targeted on 28% of his routes with Lamar Jackson (though one sample included Flowers missing entirely), and Lamar Jackson has an established long-standing connection with Andrews that differs from the recent Huntley dynamic, suggesting higher ceiling potential. Andrews can function as a cheap stacking target with Lamar Jackson to capture volume in the Ravens-Bills game.

Michael Mayer

NegativeProjection33:18

Michael Mayer recently posted 3.17 yards per route run and 30% targets per route run in a checkdown role, providing a comparable ceiling example for how Mark Andrews could function as an underneath checkdown option in a similar game script.

Tee Higgins

PositiveUsage17:27

Higgins is experiencing a career-high intermediate target share at 42% of targets (previous career high 30%) and leads the NFL in both intermediate target catches and intermediate target yards. The Titans rank 26th in completion rate allowed to wide receivers on intermediate throws and 23rd in yards per target, making this an ideal matchup for Higgins to continue his intermediate-area dominance as defenses focus on Chase.

Tony Pollard

NegativeMatchup4:13

Initially viewed as a strong play against the Browns (who have been bad against the run) when the game was projected as competitive, but the betting line moved significantly against the Titans from -10.5 to -12.5 as a 12-point underdog after Taj Spears was ruled out Sunday morning. As a volume-based play, Pollard's upside is diminished in a blowout scenario where the Titans will be forced to pass rather than lean on the run game.

Zay Flowers

PositiveProjection22:00

Flowers scored 27.7 PPR points with backup QB Tyler Huntley and has 68 receiving yards (5th in NFL) on only 163 routes—108 more yards than any other player with 500+ receiving yards who has run over 200 routes. With Lamar Jackson, Flowers has run only 45 pass routes but averages 7.8 yards per route. He's targeted on 48.5% of his slot routes for 9 yards per route with Jackson. Against the Bills, Flowers has a nuclear matchup setup: he's at 3.73 yards per route run (93rd percentile in open score), has a 23% first read target rate, and 31% targets per route run—earning targets well above offensive design while the entire Ravens offense is built around him. The Bills are 28th in passing DVOA, 29th in EPA, 31st in success rate, 29th in quick pressure rate, and quite poor in coverage with De Alford (worst coverage player) in the slot where Flowers operates. The source notes this is a tier-one setup and wouldn't argue if told their pre-matchup ranking was too low.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

2,311

0:00Welcome to the Legendary Upside podcast and YouTube channel. My name is Pat Crarane. You can follow my content at legendaryupsside.com. With me today,

0:07Rich Reebar for Angles and Upside podcast. Reeves, how's it going? It's going good, man. Uh we're about to turn uh the the calendar over again at I blew

0:17it this year because I was so busy today doing my show at Hilo and then updating like all these afternoon injuries that I

0:23didn't get to put my costume on this year.

0:25>> Oh yeah. Oh man.

0:27>> I have it I have it planned like at ready. I just ran out of time today. I'm going I'm I'm doing I'm honoring Mike

0:31Dick. I'm going as Dicko this year.

0:33Really easy costume to do. So, >> uh but I I really wanted to wear show.

0:39Yeah. Yeah.

0:40>> Um >> yeah, >> it's a long show. You know, if you you know, you need me to ramble for >> for five minutes on a game, I can do it.

0:48If you need to [laughter] >> throw a little mustache on, a wig action. Um but yeah, but that it it does

0:54set up well. No international game.

0:56Halloween night's a Saturday. So, uh, you know, couples come over and they bring their kids. We go in the neighborhood afterwards. We can hang out

1:03and, you know, drink. Don't have to get up early. We get So, the clock's back, too, an hour. So, it kind of lines up

1:08really well this year.

1:10>> That is nice. Um, yeah, we're uh we got the little Halloween parade for my for my daughters at uh right after this. Uh

1:20they're wearing their little they're you know she's two years old so their preschools going over to the park in their costumes. Um do a little

1:27trick-or-treating all that good stuff.

1:28>> Good times man.

1:29>> Um but yeah I mean yeah we got um first weekend of November as you're saying uh for football week eight we're going to

1:38be diving into the main slate on Sunday.

1:40You can check out the Thursday night.

1:42Well, that's already happened. The uh but next Thursday uh Sunday night, Monday night, all those island games over both both sides sharp football

1:50analysis. Reeves has you covered with the worksheet over legendary upside.

1:54I've got you covered with the Monday Night Football walkthrough and then Matt Herby's got you covered with the Sunday night Thursday night writeups there. Uh

1:59for the main slate analysis, Reeves has got that on the worksheet and I've got the walkthrough over at Legendary Upside. We're going to be going through

2:08game byame for the Sunday main slate here. Let's kick things off with the Titans at Bengals. This was the game that I had leading the walkth through at

2:17the time. Was hopeful that we would get Carnell Tate. Um doesn't look like that's going to happen. He missed practice again today. So, uh he'll be

2:25out. Is he officially out or is it just >> They listed him as doubtful.

2:28>> Kind of a given.

2:30>> So, doubt doubtful. He didn't practice.

2:33So, doubtful didn't practice. Doesn't sound great. [laughter] >> Doesn't sound great. Cam Ward is coming off uh his most efficient game of the

2:42season, but a really poor 10th percentile success rate, which is actually his worst uh success rate of the year. And this is something we've

2:50dealt with Ward uh all season and last season. He's never had a 60th percentile success rate in his entire career, which

2:58is not an especially high bar. So, you're looking at kind of a boom bust quarterback. with Tate, you know, I think we could live with that a little

3:06bit because, you know, he was Tate was looking like an actual star. Um, as far as like the way things set up now in the

3:14passing game, it's definitely going to be a lot tougher. Uh, Wando Robinson will step up, but doesn't have the same kind of big play or even chunk play

3:22profile that that Tate does. So, the the Titans offense just gets a lot less interesting, I think, without Ward.

3:27What's What's your read?

3:28>> Yeah, without without Yeah, without Tate.

3:31>> Without Tate. Sorry. Also too, I mean, you have to look at what the Titans did this week, and I I've heard differing

3:36arguments, but I mean, I feel like you don't trade Jeffrey Simmons if you believe in Cam Ward in on his rookie

3:43contract.

3:44>> No.

3:44>> I feel like they're gearing up for multiple picks to have fluidity to kind of maybe get out of this if not this

3:50year before his rookie contract's up.

3:52Maybe it's a Bryce Young situation and things recoil, but I think they're giving they're setting up themselves up to have outs uh as well. I I don't know.

4:01We just haven't seen like any growth from him at all. Uh you know, basically through the start of this season from

4:07where we [clears throat] left off. Just just real tough to have, you know, any faith here. And then you remove a best

4:13player from this offense. Um they're 12point dogs. It's actually gone like down. Like usually sometimes when you see these double digit favorites, it

4:21gets bet the other way and maybe it'll like inch up a couple points. Like this has gone the other way. It opened at

4:25like 10 10 and a half and it's gone to like 12 and a half. Nobody nobody believes that they're like putting up a

4:31fight here. So guys like Tony Pard who we're you know we did the show on Friday and we're like oh yeah like it's a

4:37pretty good spot for Tony Pard. Then we found out Sunday morning that Taj Spears was out and it was like oh cool like

4:43they're going to be in a tight game with the Browns. Browns, you know, have been bad against the run. This is a great

4:47spot for him. Now >> he's still like a volume based play from a manage stance but they're 12-point dogs. this is a different environment if

4:54you think you're going to get that same run out uh from a week ago and then you said you remove Tate from this offense

5:00like you lose that juice too. So you play in manage leagues it does give a bump to Wel Robinson a little bit

5:07obviously because the Bengals are I think so yeah they're an interior pass funnel too like tight ends and slot receivers are what give the Bengals

5:13trouble. So, Wandell, uh, if you're still holding on to Wandell and had him in leagues, does get a does get a little

5:19boost here this week >> for sure. The thing with the Titans, it's been kind of interesting. They we've seen them in um we've seen them

5:29get really runheavy at times, including last week. So, you know, last week was a bright spot for them, but uh minus 10%

5:36pass rate over expected, - 16% on first and 10. They were like that against the Giants, - 12 and -6. and against the

5:43Eagles minus 20 and minus 22.

5:46But it's it's one of those things where it seems to me like when the Titans are in a game that's competitive, they get

5:52tight and like I I totally get it. You know, they're like, "Okay, this game matters. We might be able to get a win

5:59here.

5:59>> We're we're our quarterback is like very boom bust, which I think is kind of a generous framing. Um let's let's not

6:07have, you know, any big mistakes here.

6:09Let's lean on the run. When they've been down, generally they have passed. So against the Texans, they had a 72% expected pass rate. They passed 73% of

6:19the time. In week one, they passed 80% of the time, which was 5% above expected. Against the Giants, they were they were in deep and negative

6:27territory, but that was in bad weather, and I think they, you know, that affected their game plan perhaps. So there is some upside for the Titans here

6:36to just chuck it and that's I think good for for Wale as kind of a you know a volume accumulator out of the slot and

6:44he's been running routes at a much higher rate than you would normally expect for a slot receiver. 87 82% over the last two weeks 80% for the season.

6:53Um and he plays almost entirely from the slot in the typical week. with Tate out.

6:58Maybe he does see more work outside, but you know, for the season, he's in the 99th percentile at wide receiver with

7:05the 76% slot rate. So, he will see plenty of targets over the middle, which as you're saying is is a good fit for the matchup.

7:12Um, so yeah, I think he does get a bump and, you know, is somewhat interesting here. It's tough cuz like Ellaor was in

7:21a full-time role last week, uh, 7.4 4 PPR points. Uh because Ridley was out.

7:27>> Ridley was out. Yeah.

7:28>> Yeah. So it's like, yeah, he'll see more work, but and he maybe sees a few more targets with Tate out, but the thing

7:34with Tate, it's like this isn't a situation we're chasing. Tate was creating his own opportunity. [laughter] >> We said a couple weeks ago he had that

7:44game where he literally had 70% of the receiving guys.

7:47>> Right. Right. Right. So this is not like, oh, you know, who's going to soak up the target volume? like that target

7:54volume is not [laughter] actually that valuable and might just turn into a sack volume, >> you know, depending on how it goes. So,

8:01uh I think Wale's someone I do think Pard, you know, if Spears is out again is >> he was he's also doubtful. He hasn't

8:08practiced either.

8:10>> Yeah. Um but yeah, not too much more to say on this. I think this is one of those games where the Bengals can kind

8:17of do what they want, but the Bengals want to pass the ball. We'll we'll get into all of that in just a second, but

8:24we're actually kicking things off early with the wagon of the week. The Bengals, who just rolled against the Ravens, are our wagon of the week.

8:31>> This [laughter] is our wagon, baby. The wagon of the week.

8:33>> The team's just rolling right now. This team is just they're wagon.

8:37>> They are [ __ ] wagon. We're going to have a nice old picnic. Load that wagon up. Like, we're need to put in that

8:43wagon.

8:43>> Their wagon. Yeah, this is our wagon of the week, baby. What does wagon mean?

8:50>> Still still love it.

8:53>> Well, the costume is just like, oh, that was like a year ago. [laughter] >> I know. I wish I had a new one for it. I

8:58blew it.

9:00>> That's all good. Um, all right. So, the Bengals versus the Titans here. As far as this matchup goes, what jumped out to

9:07me is, okay, Titans, we've talked about this um over the course of the year, big big run funnel. Um, but it's not the

9:14Titans defense that is the run funnel.

9:15It's the Titans offense. You just teams don't respect this team. And so, uh, even though the Titans aren't like terrible against the run, they have a

9:2354% pass rate against them, a minus 6% POE, and a 4% shift to the run. And teams are also operating with the second

9:30slowest pace against the Titans. So, you know, you're just grinding out wins against this team. But the Bengals have a 7% pass rate of expected that leads to

9:38the league. They're 11% on first and 10.

9:41That leads to the league. They have a 66% pass rate, which is the fourth highest mark in the league. And the the

9:48Titans defense is really bad against the pass. They're 31st in DVO, 23rd in EPA, 26th in success rate. You mentioned the

9:56Jeffrey Simmons trade, defensive tackle, star defensive tackle.

10:01He is an interior pass rusher as much as anything else. I mean, he is good against the run, too, >> but he has been incredible as a pass

10:08rusher. He currently ranks defensive tackle one in pass rush win rate. He was defensive tackle two last year. He's defensive tackle five in pass rush

10:17grade. He led the league in pass rush grade last year among interior players.

10:22So like if you were taking advantage of his absence, it would actually be to pass the ball, you know, more confidently. You're you're going to

10:30protect better in the interior now than better than you would have. Uh, I think the Bengals, you know, this is going to be one of those games

10:38where I don't think the Titans push back very effectively. And so by the third quarter, we could be looking at starters

10:45being pulled, stuff like that. But like, you know, you think back to like when Drake May went nuts against the Jets at

10:51the end of last year, that kind of thing. It's like, you know, this feels like one of those games where you don't

10:55even need the full game for the Bengals to put up a ton of points and predominantly through the air because that is the strength of their of their

11:03offense. It's their identity and they're facing a team that's actually significantly worse against the pass than the run.

11:11>> Yeah, the Bengals uh like they said like their game is we we're going to throw we're going to throw to win. Uh they're

11:17they're number one basically with a bullet of of in pass rate over expectation. And it makes sense, right?

11:23They have Jamar Chase, they have Joe Burrow, they have Tiggins. Like this is what this is what I would do if I if I

11:28>> It would be crazy if they didn't do this. Like think about how much money they're spending on those three guys.

11:33Like they were like and Chase Brown's the focal point. Like why?

11:36>> Uh 100%. I do. I mean, this this is a spot like for if there ever was a spot for Chase Brown to be good again, maybe

11:43like your 12-point home favorites that the >> He's coming along for the ride.

11:48>> Exactly. That's why he's the like he's part of the wagon, right? Like he's he's on the wagon. He's he's in there. We're

11:53trying to get him to the West Coast.

11:56We can't lose him. Uh you know, the Titans >> He's not driving the wagon, though. He's just in the >> He's just in the He's a passenger. He is

12:03a passenger. Yeah, >> but the last even with Simmons the last two weeks I mean they they were starting to give up a little bit of rushing

12:10production. I mean five and a half yards for carry the past two weeks. A very dormant Quinchan Judkins had 96 yards

12:16and two touchdowns last week like at home like in Tennessee too.

12:21>> Um >> they're facing 25 backfield runs per game. Again, we don't we don't think maybe we get to that number because the

12:27Bengals, but maybe we get there just through, you know, script in the second half because I do think eventually they do want to get him going a little bit

12:32too. maybe get him a little confidence.

12:34Um, and then and Simmons, while he has a good pass rusher, he's just a good player in general. And they do have with

12:41him off the field since the start of last year, they have a 51% success rate against running back runs compared to

12:4766% when he's on the field. So, he's just a really good player. That's why he netted the the return that he did uh in

12:55terms of capital. Uh, so this is a spot where I think they can get Chase Brown involved or at least create scoring

13:01opportunities. I know he's been kind of down. We came into last week like out of the buy like oh he had that weird game

13:07in Miami where he fumbled. There was like some some some beats like Paul Durr wrote a report like man is Sam Per just

13:13a better fit and he had uh 75% of snaps owned the backfield except for one random thing like if you just box score

13:21you're like oh P Ryan got a touchdown but three plays before that Rocoan Smith knocked Chase Brown out of the game like

13:28uh hit him hit him a knee got kind of shaken up and then Per had the next two carries and scored a touchdown and then

13:33the next drive Brown came right back in and it was just like oh damn he missed this he missed this chance that game.

13:39But people might look at that box score and say, "Oh, was it still a time share?" And it really wasn't. He was

13:43just right back to his normal workload.

13:46>> Yeah. And he had a 15% target share as well with Pine at 0%, which I think is pretty encouraging. So yeah, I I think I

13:55agree with you. I think Brown is kind of more back in the normal role. But but the thing fundamentally with Brown, like

14:00Brown is not very good. He hasn't been very good in the past. He's Yeah. worse this year than he has been as a runner.

14:08He has minus eight rush yards over expected per game. That's a running back 73. He's running back 56 per attempt.

14:15He's really really inconsistent. Ranks running back 47 in in EPA success rate.

14:20So yeah, he's just not he's not that great. And then he's not that great as a pass catcher, which I you know I was a

14:25lot pretty skeptical of like oh they're going to ramp him up as a pass like well he's already catching like five six

14:30balls a game sometimes and not doing a ton with that. So what are they going to they're going to feed him eight

14:35receptions and he's not very good. Like that seems like a bad idea. They have Tig offense.

14:42>> Yeah. So you know I think he's just it creates a lower floor and a lower ceiling than he really ought to have.

14:52Like another running back in the situation I think would you know it's kind of like Kenneth Walker joins the Chiefs and you're like oh you know

14:58Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pach are probably not making the most of this situation.

15:02Uh, and I think maybe eventually we'll see that, but then again, maybe not.

15:06Like they, as we mentioned, they're already spending so much money on offense. Um, but yeah, in this type of matchup, he can still absolutely have an

15:15awesome game. So, I have him as an RV1.

15:18You know, he's going to project really well here and and I think it makes sense. like we don't have to be we can

15:23be like macro rightight that Chase Brown is is kind of like o a little overvalued and micro rightight that he can still

15:30take advantage of these types of setups >> right and and they have come up and I don't know how I I don't have any

15:36insider channels but they have come up as the in the in the Jonathan Taylor sweeps stakes if there is a real

15:41Jonathan Taylor sweep stakes >> that would be crazy dude >> I mean it would be the dream right like this is are they the only team that

15:48would actually improve their Super Bowl odds acquiring Jonathan Uh the Seahawks would I think >> yeah I mean I don't think the Seahawks

15:58are a real threat though to trade for him given well maybe they are I guess >> they could tra I mean Jacob was saying

16:05you know give us Chadarian Price in a third and I was like can I get hired as the Seahawks to make that trade right

16:11now? [laughter] Yeah. Can we experience Price in a >> Cuz like Minnesota's like odds wouldn't like material change materially change, right? Cuz like Kyler is still the

16:21quarterback like the quarterback still the doubt like the Bengals like I think their their odds might be they're like one of the few at least teams that I

16:28think their odds would actually go up.

16:30>> I think it I think they'd go up. Yeah.

16:32Although, you know, sometimes with with that thing like I do think the Bengals are better off just >> without a ton

16:39>> in a sense. It's like if they if you told me the Bengals are going to have like a 7% pass rate over expected and

16:43Jonathan Taylor, then their odds go up.

16:45But if you told me they like move to a balanced team, >> right, >> then they're I don't think their odds go

16:51up. Like >> that's fair. Yeah.

16:52>> You know, they're running the offense.

16:55>> All the McVey bros have all the McVey bros do want to run it in their heart.

16:58It's just the core the core of those guys, the Shanahan MCVade guys. They're heart of hearts, man. They do want to

17:04run it.

17:04>> They love to run it. [laughter] >> So yeah. All right. So he he said it would be fun for fantasy football at

17:10least. But >> I think it I think it would help the Seahawks because they're going to run it anyway.

17:14>> They're going to run anyways. They're going to run. They're running with Emanuel Wilson. Like >> Right. [laughter] Right. At least use

17:18Jonathan Taylor if you're going to do that.

17:23>> Any uh any notes on the receivers here?

17:26I mean I it's just an awesome setup for for both Chase and Higgins. I have Chase the cover boy to walk through this week.

17:32>> Yeah, great spots. Uh if if anyone's interested in like kind of what's going on at the Bengals, Ben Solak had like a

17:37really great he like a 10-minute video on just like the amount of attention like Jamar Chase got last week and like

17:43how teams are playing him.

17:44>> Uh Ben's also awesome, too. He's he's really good at breaking stuff down. And that's really opened up a lot of stuff

17:49for T. Higgins. Right now, >> T. Higgins has 42% of his targets in the intermediate area of the field. Uh his

17:57career high for a season is 30%. like this is like he is he leads the NFL in intermediate target catches, intermediate target yards. Uh that's

18:06also where the Titans are getting absolutely killed by wide receivers right now. Uh they're 26th in completion rate allowed to wide receivers on those

18:13throws, 23rd uh in yards per target. I mean, they're a bad defense in general.

18:18They're just a bad pass defense. They spent a bunch of money on Elante Taylor and they don't really even play him

18:22anymore. Uh they can just be had through through the air. I mean, we saw Kevin Conpion have his breakout game against

18:29them last week. Imagine what these guys could do.

18:33>> Yeah. Yeah, for real. Um, uh, I'll note, uh, Eric All got hurt.

18:39Uh, Drew Sample kind of took that roll over. Looks like Mike Gasiki 47% round participation last week and kind of just

18:46in his same Gasiki role. So, uh, I don't think anything changes there despite the injury really.

18:53>> Uh, all right. They're they're the right kind of 12 personnel teams. They like run a ton of 12 personnel, but like they

18:58just do it with dudes that are just there to like to not >> to not really get involved.

19:03>> Right. Right. [laughter] They're like doing a lot of the work for that stat that Hayden Winkx had back a couple years ago with like yards per

19:11roman for wide receivers in 12.

19:14>> It's like, you know, the Bengals probably are mostly driving that.

19:18>> I love [laughter] it.

19:21>> Um all right, Ravens at Bills. We got uh Lamar Lamar Jackson. We talked about him last week. Talked about how excited we

19:29were for Zay Flowers. Flowers still got there. 27.7 PPR points with Tyler Huntley playing. Um that could have been even more fun, right? With uh with the

19:39Bengals scoring a ton of points. Lamar Jackson was able to push back. So, we kind of got robbed of like a really fun

19:44shootout even though it was still a productive game for the star wide receiver on the Ravens. But Jackson is going to be back. And this game also

19:53looks like a true potential shootout.

19:56What are your thoughts on the Ravens here?

19:58>> Oh yeah, this game this game has it all, man. Right. Like this, we have one team as the wagon, but as a game like this is

20:05>> Yeah, >> this is all set up like I mean well we'll talk about like cuz you know the Bills like the best part about the Bills

20:11this year from like our neck of the woods is like their defense is bad too.

20:16>> Defense stinks >> and but I have been like just waiting.

20:19We talked about it last week like this.

20:21Lamar and Zay Flowers have not played a full game together and like the underlying metrics here are like so sensational. I mean one Lamar Jackson

20:30has been hyper efficient again as a passer when he's played. I mean he's 71% completion rate, 10 yards are passed him, 14 yards per completion. He has

20:38over a 6% touchdown rate. But we've only seen Zay Flowers and him play a little sprinkling of snaps together. I mean

20:45it's literally for 45 pass routes all year. And the dude averages 7.8 yards per out run on those.

20:53>> He has three hundred yard games in the first half this year. He has he has three games with [laughter] 100 yards

21:00receiving in the first half. I had this I had a couple notes in here with the worksheet. I just like he he has 68

21:05receiving yards. It's fifth in the NFL.

21:07He's only run 163 routes. Every other guy that has over 500 routes and he's a or 500 yards. Uh he has a 100 more than

21:15that. So, it's like not even like I'm doing the old like fantasy douche thing like like this guy pulled up this thing.

21:20Well, he's one more yard than the cutoff, right? He's 108 more than that.

21:24Every every other player in the NFL has 500 yards, has run over 200 pass routes this year. Um >> he is moving around more. He's been

21:33targeted on 48 and a half% of his slot routes for nine yards per out run with Lamar Jackson. And that in the Bills 10

21:40yards per target to slot receivers, 8% touchdown rate. like this is this is what we finally have liftoff, right?

21:47Like this is it. And in this game environment, like we were so excited last week, it's like, well, we'll get Lamar back versus the Bengals who are

21:54also an interior funnel. And it's like now we get him against Josh Allen. It's like we have a we still have the optimal

22:00setup for Z Flowers to just go absolutely bonkers.

22:05We do. But I think so with the Ravens, it's interesting, you know, if you look at their their pass rate and stuff,

22:13their run first team, but obviously they've been playing with a backup quarterback, but they've actually been slightly more tilted to the run with

22:21Lamar Jackson than they have with Tyler Huntley. Now, their their pass rates lower with Jackson and Park as their expected pass rate has been lower, but

22:29they have a minus 4% proe with Jackson, minus three with Huntley. They're minus six on first and 10, minus five with

22:36Huntley. So they they are tilted more to the run even relative to game script.

22:41With Jackson, I don't think that's really going to matter here though because the Bills aren't great against the run. They're below average against

22:50the run. They're really bad against play action. They're seeing play action at the fourth highest rate. Ravens are running that at the eighth highest rate.

22:58Ravens are the third most efficient play action team. Bengals or Bills are the fourth worst at defending play action per per drop back. So, it is an a nice

23:10setup actually for like the Ravens style where they're going to be balanced maybe tilted to the run even in this game, but

23:17then they're going to be play actioning off of that. And then the the Bills against the pass overall 28th in passing

23:23DVOA, 29th in EPA, 31st in success rate.

23:26The pass rush isn't good. They're 29th in quick pressure rate. They're quite poor in coverage. None of their quarterbacks are particularly good. The

23:33worst of the bunch is probably De Alford who's in the slot. So, to your point there, I mean, Zay Flowers in the slot

23:39has just been awesome. This matchup sets up very well for that. Um, yeah, I mean, he's at 3.73 yards per route run, which

23:47includes [clears throat] so many routes with with Tyler Hunley.

23:51>> And you also look at like, you know, how much of this is scheme versus how much of this is him. It's both. He's He's

23:5993rd percentile in open score. You have to have both to do that.

24:01>> He's drawing targets.

24:03>> Yeah, you have to have both to do this.

24:05He's got a 23% first read target rate, which is awesome, >> but a 31% targets per out run, which is even better. So, he's he's earning

24:13targets well above kind of what the offensive design is, but the offensive design is fully built around Flowers.

24:19So, yeah, this is a a nuclear type setup for for Z Flowers. I didn't have him as like an elite wide receiver one, but I

24:27had him as as just the next tier down in my rankings. But I mean, if you told me I was too low, I wouldn't argue.

24:33>> Yeah. And and I'm very curious to see too how the how the Ravens do approach it because you brought up uh because the

24:39Cowboys game, they were very runheavy, but the week after before Lamar Jackson got hurt, they were really pass heavy and that and we lost another lineman

24:47last week for them. You know, Vega Ioneion uh is going to miss some time with the MCL injury. So, like they just

24:53have this patchwork offensive line that's really kind of hindered them from running the ball effectively. Now, they're still going to run and try to

25:00run with Derrick Henry. This is like they're not just going to ghost this, like they're not going to turn into the

25:04Bengals. Um, but we're now seeing Derrick Henry averaged the fewest yards before contact of his career. And it's been a it's been a problem. And then we

25:13saw the them like kind of acknowledge that in the last time we samar Jackson, they just got hurt at halftime. and

25:18they're always going to alter the offense without Lamar Jackson and have Tyler Huntley try to uh you know protect games and that actually probably cost

25:25them one game against the Cleveland Browns. But it's going to be interesting to see if they can just be an effective

25:30run team at this point. We've seen it with a couple guys like it's there's no quick fix. I think Lamar helps the

25:35efficiency of the run game, but like even like we've seen with like the Packers, right? Like there people like well they're gonna

25:40>> That's what I was going to bring up.

25:41>> Yeah, it >> that's kind of what it reminds me of. it it's like, yeah, they can run still, but like the efficiency still is a problem

25:48because the offensive line is still bad.

25:50So, we'll see how how it plays here. The Bills aren't a tough matchup, but the offensive line is just still like in

25:56complete Pat-rick mode.

25:59Yeah. To me, there's certain teams where it's like it's not even really about the efficiency of the run. It's like they

26:06have these like like punch combos that they do and like you know they kind of they get in the rhythm of it and it's

26:14like they they want to run to kind of set up the shots they're they're looking to take in the passing game and all that

26:19type of stuff working together. So like it works way better if the run is efficient, but even when the run stops

26:25being efficient, they're they're probably still going to run a similar offense. I I don't think they'll they'll get away from it too much. But yeah, it

26:33is it is notable that Derrick Henry, I mean, he's dropped way off in efficiency this year. And I mean, look, like he's

26:38just been defying age for for years and years. It does seem like maybe it's catching up with him this season. Uh

26:45running back 29 in rush yards over expected per attempt, 31 in in per game.

26:50His success rate metrics, he's running back 38 and 26. Uh he's not breaking tackles. He's running back 50 in elusive rating. So, it's definitely kind of it's

27:00concerning for Henry that that maybe he's not going to be as efficient, but this is still a pretty strong setup. If

27:05you think about Henry as like he's going to be >> game environment, too. Yeah, >> game environment. Think about if you

27:10want to think about Henry as as like Josh Jacobs, you know, Josh Jacobs just scored two touchdowns, you know, like like this is the kind of

27:18game where you could have him score two touchdowns pretty easily. So, >> um I I do like Henry here as as kind of,

27:28you know, he's like he's like an RB1 type play.

27:33>> Not super excited about him for for DFS, but as a as a way of kind of saying, hey, I I don't want to play Lamar on

27:40this lineup. Uh how does how does Lamar and how does Dave Flowers not have an amazing game? Henry taking the touchdowns would be one of the routes.

27:48>> Yeah, 100%. And >> good. No, good.

27:52>> No, no, no, that's all I had.

27:54>> Okay. Um, yeah, I mean the in the addition to the um well, you know, one one thing with Henry I guess we should

28:03notice that you know there is a little bit of fragility to him as well where he is >> sometimes losing snaps to Justice Hill.

28:10Um, and >> they like the the Ravens are an underdog here. They're on the road. They're three-point road dogs. Um, it is

28:19possible that we see them actually have to abandon kind of the more balanced setup that I was talking about and just

28:25chuck the ball uh in the second half.

28:28Like this game could really get ramped up in a way that that hurts Henry. So, I think there is some fragility to his

28:33setup, but outside of Flowers, what what are your thoughts on on the weapons here? We've seen Mark Andrews target rates fall off a lot over the last two

28:41weeks.

28:42>> Yeah, he still is out there. I don't know if it's a Huntley thing because like we haven't seen him play a full

28:48game with Lamar Jackson since week two either. So like there just might be some a lot more reveal. He also like I mean

28:55eyeball test Mark Andrews hasn't looked good either. I mean even last week like the >> it's not a it's not like an easy play

29:00for him to make, but it's a play like you expect a guy like Mark Andrews to make that like that ball on the sideline

29:05where he's got to kind of turn and make the catch.

29:07>> Yeah.

29:07>> He hasn't looked great. He has been targeted on 28% of his routes with Lamar, but one of those games save

29:12flowers didn't play at all in week two.

29:14So, it's hard to even glom on to that. I will say >> Jacobe Lane is back, which is which coincides with him then losing target.

29:21So, that's not ideal.

29:22>> Yep. 100%. I mean, like I said, game environment like I don't have any push backs like you their buys like KD's on

29:28by. Um, who else is on by? There's one other good tight end that just off top of my head I I've kind of forgot who's

29:34on by just spaced out. But it's like so if you're taking a shot like a game environment touchdown bet like you could

29:39maybe you even try to do the narrative street angle because remember the last time he was in Buffalo like he had that

29:44nightmare game basically cost playoff game. So like maybe there's like a a fun redemption arc here even [laughter] >> like or maybe he's just like he's he's

29:52ghost >> he's just been panic like ah last time it's a new field at least. So [laughter] >> but >> Isaiah likely is probably the other

30:01tight end you were thinking of the Giants. Yeah, like Saints, Texans, and 49.

30:05>> So, like, yeah, some gamers might, and you might be say, who do I pick up, right? Like, maybe, you know, I throw a

30:09dart in the game environment. Lamar's back. I get it. Like, you're trying to catch a touchdown. Lane's a little more exciting to me cuz he got the bump in

30:15the routes, too, last week. He's still not like he's still not like at like 90% or anything because Baitman played, but

30:21he made a significant jump and he's been out targeting Baitman pretty regularly any time that he's played. And when Baitman missed and Walker, Dvontes

30:28Walker played that role, he also didn't get targets. So, like maybe that's just like a part of their offense that like

30:34that guy is just out there to free stuff up for other people.

30:39>> Yeah, I think I'm actually This is one of those like Mark Andrews, it looks it's it's like this is probably

30:47what it's going to look like when it's over. It might just be over.

30:50>> Yeah. Um, however, I do think that the fact that he he leads all tight ends in open score does jump out to me as like,

31:00uh, huh? Like, that's not something that I would expect to see when a guy's just totally washed.

31:07>> He's at 1.22 yards per route run after 1.23 last year.

31:13>> He's like, you know, he's an older player. He's 31 years old.

31:18It's like it feels a lot like this guy's just it's over. But you look at his profile, he has a 19% target share.

31:27That's 88th percentile at tight end.

31:29He's at 22% targets per outr run. 85th 19% first read target rate. 93rd percentile. The issue is the per target stuff. 5.5 yards per target. That's 2.2

31:41yards below where you'd expect for his A dot. He's leaving 2.3 fantasy points per game on the field, which is third

31:48percentile. Those aren't sticky metrics.

31:51Yards per target, fantasy points over expected. Like, you would not want to be.

31:55>> So, I don't know, man. Like, in this setup, I actually think he's he's an interesting I I haven't like I say DFS,

32:02but >> I don't know the prices yet or anything, but like from a perspective of Hey, I want >> Oh, no. He's real cheap on DraftKings.

32:08Oh, is he? Okay, then I'm in.

32:10>> Oh, yeah. He's got like he's he's 3,400.

32:12I haven't written up as a tournament play too. Uh yeah, you know, for the >> for the >> I am going to be playing some Mark

32:19Andrews this week. I I think from a tournament perspective [clears throat] >> like >> you know you you you finish first or

32:27last, you know, it's it's >> exactly >> Ricky Bobby, right? Like I And you're going to finish last, but like >> I like him. I wrote him up from the

32:36angle of uh Lane's going to be the more popular cheap guy and like they're the same price and it's like well you can

32:42kind of get a little leverage on Lane too.

32:46>> Yeah. And I don't think that we know like Lane comes back. He has 23% targets per outr run last week. Uh besting or

32:55two weeks ago against the the Browns besting Andrews was at 12 then 17 besting Andrews was at 14 and uh and has

33:02been inefficient in both games. So it's like a it's a clean narrative of like Lane came back, Andrews routes fell off,

33:09but that was with Huntley. Like Lamar Jackson has a long connection with Mark Andrews. like these guys have an established connection. Jacobe Lane's a

33:18rookie. This is an awesome setup. We, by the way, we just saw Michael Mayer a couple weeks ago, you know, turn in uh

33:263.17 yards per out run, a 30% targets per out run as just kind of a checkdown option. Sure. But like very much, you

33:34know, could be the type of thing that um like like can Andrews be an underneath checkown option a bunch of times in this

33:41game? Like yep, you know? So, I don't I just I think from the less the floor matters, the more interested I'm in in Andrews

33:51because the floor is is low. The floor is Oh, he's washed. Never mind.

33:57>> Yeah. 100%.

33:59>> Yeah. All right. Bill's side of this game. You have another team that wants to run the ball, wants to play action

34:08off the run. The The Bills have the highest play action rate in the league.

34:12uh fifth best efficiency on play action, but the Ravens have been great against play action that they have the the most

34:17efficient defense against play action.

34:20Um they're not seeing a ton of play action. Where they're weaker is just against a straight up like traditional drop back shotgun drop back type game

34:29where the Bills have the most efficient offense in the league, but they're running out of the shotgun at the lowest rate. So, in a weird I brought this up

34:36because it's it's funny where like the Bills are such a strange team where if you push them off of their primary plan,

34:44they actually get better.

34:45>> Yeah. you know, like if this game starts to shoot out, then the Ravens are like if the Ravens like score too many points

34:51early, like they're screwed, you know, it's kind of like that, which isn't quite true, but it's like it does it's it's a sort of counterintuitive

34:59thing where you don't you actually want the Bills to execute as they plan to because it's not it's actually sort of a

35:05sub-optimal plan typically.

35:08>> Yeah. Um the the Ravens too, like they've had a just a really favorable run out. I mean obviously they faced

35:14Daniel Jones, Tyler Shuck, Cam Ward, Michael Penn, Deshaawn Watson.

35:18>> They when they faced Dak Prescott, the Cowboys scored 31. When they faced Joe Burrow, they scored 35 and a half.

35:25>> So like, you know, they're fa This is another big punch up for them. And the two times they've had to punch up,

35:30they've given up a bucket of points. So we feel pretty good, I think, about the Bills being able to score points here.

35:36We also feel good, like we talked about, you know, from the other side, the Bills allowing points. They're they're number one in points per drive and they're

35:42number 32 in points allowed per drive.

35:44Like the perfect setup because Josh Allen for his career like this is this is the setup, dude. Like when since his

35:52breakout in 2020 when his team allows 30 points, he averages 30.4 fantasy points.

35:56He actually has a career winning record.

35:59He's the best winning record when his defense allows 30 points.

36:02>> This is what I'm saying.

36:04>> Yeah. Yeah. Like he it's like oh like I guess we got like you got to unlock this guy. I guess we have to use the best

36:10quarterback in the league.

36:11>> Guess we have to do it.

36:12>> Yeah. Poor us. [laughter] >> Yeah. And they've allowed this year 30 or more points to in four of the games,

36:1929 or more to everyone but the Chargers.

36:21Um and then, you know, so it's like we're expecting like this to have like this is the environment, man. Like they're going to give up points. They

36:30should be able to score points.

36:31>> Yeah. And here here's the stat. So, the Chargers on first and 10 have a minus4% pass rate are expected.

36:41Then there's five teams at minus 7%. The Eagles, the Falcons, the Bucks, the Commanders, and the Colts. You know, it's kind of a general theme here of

36:53offensive quality.

36:54>> Yeah, [laughter] exactly.

36:56>> The Bills are at minus 9% pass rate of expected on first and 10. So, they're they're below all of those teams, you

37:03know, not quite as low as the Chargers, but it is strange like the way they've been playing and and the way they've

37:10been playing over the last four weeks, they're at a minus 17% passer expected on first and 10, minus 4% overall. They

37:18started out kind of uh aggressively and then pivoted hard to this overly.

37:23>> Does that not overlap DJ Moore's injury?

37:27It doesn't fully overlap, but yeah, >> the Chargers because the Chargers game he played in full, >> right? The Chargers game he he played in

37:36full. Yeah. Um >> but I mean it includes most of >> the last month or I think it might be them trying to hide the defense.

37:45>> It could be. Absolutely. Drew, too.

37:48>> I also think Joe Brady just likes to play this way.

37:51>> He probably does in his heart of hearts.

37:54>> Yeah. Yeah. But you're right. DJ Moore's injury I think is playing playing a factor.

37:59>> Um >> well it's the same thing like we saw the Chiefs >> like on Sunday night Kenneth Walker gets stopped and you're like and it's the

38:06Seahawks but in context but like you're like oh yeah like when the Chiefs can't really do the Kenneth Walker thing like

38:11we never really liked their offense outside of that anyways. And like the Bills were kind of the same way. It's like oh you removed DJ Moore. I was like

38:16well they're just going to do the same they did last year right? They kind of have been. [laughter] >> Yeah but like they don't have to. Oh,

38:24that's the bummer. That was our whole argument last year. I was like, you don't have to do this still, too. But

38:28they fall into that trap every time.

38:31>> And and it's strange, too, cuz cuz Allen is such a good runner, you know, but he's it's >> he's more of a runner, you know, from

38:38from drop backs from on scrambles. So, it's like calling run plays, you're robbing yourself of the run like Yeah.

38:46>> You you know, you you lose Allen's legs a little bit when you don't call enough dropbacks. So, but yeah, what what are

38:51your thoughts on DJ Moore returning here? Um, you know, assuming that he does.

38:56>> Yeah, assuming he does. I mean, he he it's a very small sample, but I mean, when he was on the field, you know, Josh

39:02Allen was averaging just under 10 yards per pass attempt. Um, same thing like we're getting Lamar back for Z Flowers.

39:08We're getting DJ Moore back kind of an inverse way for Josh Allen to kind of open some things up. He was also Dalton

39:14Concade was a lot better anytime that DJ Moore's been on the field, too.

39:18uh almost double his yards per out run when DJ Moore has been on the field this year as well. Just kind of opens up the

39:24deep ball. That's what's hurt is the downfield passing for Allen with Moore off the field, especially these past three games. He's 12 of 29, 26th in the

39:33league on throws 10 or more yards downfield. He was at 66% with DJ Moore on the field, which would have been

39:38second over the full uh stretch of the season. There's probably a little bit of regression baked into both sides, but he's probably, you know, still a top 10

39:46guy in that regard if we have DJ Moore the whole year. So, and but uh the Ravens have struggled against wide

39:53receiver play, man. Like, like all year it's been pretty consistent with them.

39:57They're 22nd in points allowed to wide receiver ones. They're 30th in yards per target allowed to those guys. Haven't given up a ton of touchdowns to those

40:03dudes. But um yeah, it it just he's a guy if like DJ Moore is on here like I feel like most uh uh just in general the

40:11tide is lifted for them to score more points in general.

40:16>> I agree. And it is interesting like concade started out the season so hot um 5.91 yards per hour against the Texans

40:23then 3.65 and then hasn't had two since with with a couple games at at below 0.5 against the Patriots and and Rams. Um,

40:32so yeah, I think more being out there will help. It also helps to have played the Lions, you know, back in week two.

40:38So, >> Oh, yeah.

40:39>> Um, you know, a little a little bit of the schedule stuff.

40:43>> Ravens have had trouble with these tight ends, too. Uh, tight ends that play from the slot and out wide in particular.

40:49They're eight and a half yards for a target. It was just 23rd. They've had three touchdowns those guys already, too. So little bit of of matchup boost

40:57for him in general too as well here versus like you said the Rams who are really tough on his arc type in general.

41:03We I mean they just threw dudes at Brock Bowers last week. Um so a little bit softer run out here for concaid I think

41:10too as well.

41:12Curious if you agree with this uh this statement. So, I the way I feel about this game, I feel better about Josh

41:19Allen, but but better about Lamar Stacks. Uh, and and maybe maybe that's that's a bad take if Moore plays, but I

41:28it's like I know it's I know Flowers is leading the way, and if I can tack on cheap Mark Andrews, >> I think I can capture a ton of the Lamar

41:35volume.

41:36>> Um, Allen, I feel like kind of no matter what happens, he's going to get there because he can get there with his legs.

41:43Um but uh it's going to be harder to to figure out who's going to score points here. I mean DJ Moore is set up well but

41:50Khalil Shakir Keon Coleman has had you know a decent role here. He's been efficient 1.93 yards per rout. He'll still play a good amount even with more

42:00back as is the other outside wide receiver. Um probably like 70ish% route participation something like that I would guess. And then Concaid. So it's

42:10it's a little tougher. Plus, you have James Cook not really being a pass catcher.

42:14>> Yeah. I mean, we saw it the first two weeks. What? He threw what did he throw?

42:18Eight touchdowns the first two weeks and what? Five guys had touchdowns. Like that's that's always the tough part. I remember Josh Palmer had a touchdown in

42:26each game, too. You might get a Dawson Knox touchdown with the Bills. Like that's always the frustrating part with Josh Allen. And the history of DFS has

42:34always been like, well, what do you who do you pair him with? Uh, and and you, like you said, I always prefer like

42:40just, hey, if you if you think it's a Josh Allen game, especially like these game environments, usually the plane tends to get built out of just play Josh

42:46Allen. Like, you don't have to try to get too cute with it.

42:50>> Right. Right. Um, what are your thoughts on James Cook here?

42:54>> Um, James Cook is I mean, it's same thing like as always with James Cook.

42:58He's just a really efficient back. Is he going to be involved in the pass game?

43:02Uh Tai Johnson left week six with a hamstring injury and he got the routes went back up to just under 50% but

43:08anytime Tai Johnson's played he's been like low 30s.

43:12>> Uh they don't really throw him a ton anyways. So he's a guy it's funny to like talk about him in the same context

43:18of Derrick Henry, but it is similar like >> very similar.

43:21>> Yeah. I mean you you need 100 yards, you need a couple touchdowns from him, right? From like a a DFS tournament

43:26perspective. That's what you need. Uh we haven't seen him get the long one yet.

43:30We keep talking about like when's he going to get the long one. Uh we haven't had it yet, so maybe you get one. But

43:34he's the same arc type of guy, which feels weird to say, but he is a guy that has to get um he has to be really

43:40efficient and score touchdowns, and he is a good bet for that usually.

43:44>> Yeah, I like this setup for him. I mean, it's just tough. Like, you know, he is the type of player who

43:51could get scripted out on another team, but like how do you get scripted out on the Bills? So, they're always going to

43:57be in it. Yep. Um, so I I do like >> he's the home favorite. So like when you're butdding him up and against Henry

44:04and better offensive line, too. Um, >> yeah, >> Ravens are gonna have to switch some stuff up here though cuz like they've

44:09been playing a ton of sub package against the run. Uh, but you can't do that with a mobile quarterback. You have

44:15to have a dude to account for Josh Allen. So I mean if they if they do play light boxes against the Bills, they're

44:21going to get smoked. Uh, like like but I don't think they're going to. I think they have to break tendency because of

44:27Josh Allen. Like the Seahawks do this a lot too where like they they can get away with it, but against mobile

44:32quarterbacks they typically because you have to account for a guy like Josh Allen. Like you need a guy on him.

44:38>> Totally. Uh all right, Cardinals at Cowboys.

44:41>> Um good games. Good games.

44:44>> I know there's good games in the one o'clock window this week. Cowboys defense thoughts on on kind of how bad

44:51they are because by the the seasonl long numbers, they're quite bad. They're 30th in DVOA EPA and drop back success rate.

44:59Uh you know, they just had a great game though last week. It was against Tanner McKe, but he was 44th percentile in EPA

45:06per play against them, 22nd in success rate. But Joey Port Jr. wasn't a full-time role last week. Um, so they're they're moving in the right

45:16direction. They, you know, were terrible in week one against Jackson Dart. Lamar Jackson was awesome against them. CJ Stout a few weeks ago was was really

45:25good, but Jordan Love wasn't amazing in in efficiency against them a couple weeks ago. Um, it's possible like they've had they've faced some some

45:34tough offenses this year. Um, so I'm I'm kind of curious if you think this is a it's not a good defense, but is this

45:42like in just an absolute kind of smash spot for the Cardinals here, or is this like, you know, a below average but not

45:48super vulnerable defense?

45:51>> Yeah, I I tend to think like they're they're not as bad as they started. They also got Kobe Durant back last week and

45:57Dearo oversh um which which helps them out too as well. So like I still think it's fluid. remember they still did this

46:03weird thing too where they brought in Mike Pton a couple weeks ago to kind of like oversee Christian Parker. So I've

46:08always been optimistic like from a personnel stance like their guys aren't terrible.

46:12>> Uh Don Bland is terrible that that he has been awful like so you can attack Don Bland. Uh Joey Porter Jr. has been

46:19awesome though the snaps that he's played like you said. Uh yeah um the you know obviously you know grain of salt

46:25with Tanner McKe. The the one path of failure that I keep coming back to this game though is is if the Cowboys are

46:33because if they're just not even like say they're not like a a bottom rung defense, but even they're they're still below rate defense. We saw this a couple

46:40weeks ago when the Cardinals played the Rams. So the Cardinals create no explosives on offense. Like they're they're dead last in the NFL in rate of

46:4920 yard plays, but they're fourth in the NFL in plays per drive. like they will suck the life out of a game if you let

46:57them. And if like this Cowboys defense isn't good enough to stop them from sucking the life out of this game. It

47:02they can do it because like they just don't create explosives. They'll bleed you to death with Trey McBride receptions. Like there's an avenue where

47:10like that could happen, right? Like absolutely. And it's like oh no. Like we don't want that to happen. Uh but we saw

47:16when we we were on the Rams in that game and the Rams were a little bit under their regular efficiency, but like they

47:21were moving the ball. It's just they had no time possession in that game and it's like there is an avenue for that to

47:27happen here. But if we do get the script where the Cowboys are at home and they're doing their Cowboys, they're rolling. We've also seen the Cardinals

47:36like be really willing to just like drop back and pass the whole second half, too. Uh we saw on Sunday against the

47:42Broncos, 53 drop backs in Detroit a couple weeks ago, 52 drop backs against San Francisco in week three, 53 drop backs. So, we need the Cowboys to start

47:52this game hot. Like, if if they give up like an eight-minute drive to the Cardinals, like remember a couple weeks ago when they played the Bucks on

47:58Thursday night and they gave like a 10-minute drive and like that and we were like, "Oh, no." Like, we needed to

48:03not happen here, >> right? Yeah, that's a great point. I think because the Cardinals I I agree with what you're saying, like they have

48:10been, you know, against the Rams, they had a 50% pass rate that was 9% below expected. they've kind of the the

48:16Chargers, they were minus 2% POE in that week one win. So, we've seen them kind of operate that way. It's kind of like

48:22the Titans where if like you you give them a chance, they're like they're going to be this actually kind of, you

48:27know, deliberate offense.

48:30>> But if you're if you're like actually you're way you're behind, you just have to chuck it. They'll do that, too. They

48:34did that last week. 73% pass rate, 75% pass rate against the Lions, um 68% against the Seahawks. So, yeah, this is

48:43it's probably incumbent on the the Cowboys to make this game fun. I I do worry about it's it's not that I think

48:50the Cowboys defense is is even, you know, average. I do think it's below average, but uh and I think it's actually probably probably just bad, but

49:00I'm not sure I believe in the Cardinals offense right now with with the way, >> you know, they can't seem to figure out

49:06this double coverage stuff. Um >> what's the Nathaniel Hackett unit here, >> right? And this so the the Lions um we

49:17talked about them, you know, a few weeks ago the way they they played uh the Cardinals, they they double covered Michael Wilson 34% of the time, Trey

49:27McBride 41% of the time, and they hadn't really been using double coverage much all season. This is the the Lions defense that allowed Tedo McMillan to

49:36see a below average double coverage rate when he dropped 45 >> without Jaylen Coker.

49:40>> Without Jaylen Coker. Yeah. Uh Garrett Wilson, they didn't really double cover much. Uh he was super efficient and productive. Chris Lave week one hit them

49:51with 3.31 yards per hour running and 28 PPR points. So like they just haven't really done much in terms of double

49:57coverage. Okay. They were on by in week six. In week seven, the Lions get the Packers, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Tucker Craft. Like, this is as

50:07clear-cut, you know, uh, like here's the guys they're going to throw to offense as there is. Didn't double cover any of

50:14those guys really. Watson was at eight, Matthew Golden at 12, Tucker Craft at 16%. Those were all low rates. That to

50:21me looks like, and we see this in the NFL where there's, you know, how how do you play the Cardinals? Oh, this is the

50:28team where you just take away Trey McBride and take away Michael Wilson because they don't have answers. Do you have to show the NFL that you have

50:34answers for this or every team's just going to do this to you and they're going to do it to you in a way that

50:38they're like, "Yeah, I'll just do that.

50:41That's how you shut this team down and then I'll move on. Then I'll move back to my normal thing next week." We saw

50:48the Cowboys. They just played the Eagles who were down to Mai Lemon is their only there's their only start at wide

50:54receiver. He was double teamed 43% of the time last week and Dallas got it was at 30% or sorry 29% almost 30. Um so you

51:04know both those guys were like decently productive because the offense still had to run through them but uh you know 1.91

51:10yards per hour run for Lemon, two for for Goddard. Either one was was you know super productive. I think that uh we're

51:19just going to see the same thing here with both these guys getting double covered a ton and especially with Joey Porter Jr. playing pretty well and now

51:28in a full-time role. I am worried about Michael Wilson, you know, has been banged up in in practice this week as

51:33well.

51:34>> Uh Trey McBride, he's going to get double covered a ton.

51:38He's actually produced in a few of these games where he's he's he's seen 29% double coverage rate or higher. He's he

51:44does have three 20 plus PPR point games uh in that that's he's seen that four times and he's hit 20 >> plus PPR points three of those four

51:54times. So I'm not so worried about McBride because he's just really really good.

51:58>> Yeah.

51:59>> But Wilson it's like they're going to feed him. Yeah. Wilson I do worry with with Porter making this defense better

52:06and the the double coverage that they just can't seem to figure out answers for. Um I I I do think this is a a

52:14tougher setup than it might look like on paper.

52:17>> Yeah, 100%. It it because as I said, it's fluid and we're not kind like Joey Porter's snaps aren't factored into like

52:23the seasonl long stuff. Um there's still a lot of stuff too that's like just being anchored by you know a couple

52:29games and stuff too uh for some of these teams and there's a lot of volatility and he's just been he's just been not

52:35good honestly like the last month. So it's hard to have a lot of faith in that spot. Maybe we see some stuff trickle

52:42down to like Kendrick Bourne or something like that. Um but yeah, we we have to just count on the Cowboys to

52:49score and drive them into a hell state to like where we have to drop back and throw like like those all those games

52:55that you rattled off.

52:58>> I think that's even more true because the Cowboys defense is actually starting to look like a pretty big run funnel. Um

53:04teams have the the fourth slowest pace against the Cowboys. 57% pass rate, minus 4% POE, 2% shift to the pass. And

53:12the Cowboys ranked 27th in rushing DVOA, 29th in EPA, and 23rd uh in success rate against the run. So, you know, what you

53:21talked about with the way the Bucks handled them.

53:24>> I mean, I could see the I could see that being the Cardinals plan is like time of possession, limit possessions. Like,

53:30that's a smart plan if you're the Cardinals.

53:32>> It's the only way they can win this game.

53:34>> It's the only way they can win the game.

53:36That really is it. Like you they cannot outscore score the Cowboys because their defense is awful, >> right? But okay, so the Cowboys, if you

53:46look at the Cowboys over the the course of the season, uh Dak Prescott's playing really well through the first four weeks. Then he has this this twoame

53:53slump in week five and six. Uh disappointing efficiency uh against the Packers and Bucks. Minus 5.3 EPA per

54:03game over that twoame stretch. um last week he recovers post 16 EPA against the Eagles, but this is part of a game where

54:12the Cowboys have a 44% success rate or sorry 44% pass rate. Uh very very different number. Um 44% pass rate. That

54:22was with a 56% expected pass rate.

54:25Uh well well below expected.

54:27They were minus 13% on first and 10.

54:29I've literally never heard Troy Aman happier calling a game just watching his Cowboys just run the ball down the Eagles throats. Like he was giddy. And

54:40uh I think we're looking at like the Cowboys they're they're they were two and four coming off twoame losing streak with the

54:49with the quarterback struggling. They get back on track. They had they had just gotten pushed into an 81% pass rate. Well, remember he took a bunch of

54:58heat after so like >> took a bunch of heat. Yeah, >> it was we we talked about this last week with Stfansky, right? Like it's like

55:03anytime these coaches like get called out for something like they tend to swerve really hard into the other direction the next week and that's

55:09exactly what happened.

55:10>> Yeah. And it worked, right? They they get the win, >> they get all this praise for >> it can work here if they want it to.

55:17>> It can, but like I think I I'm worried about, you know, this like what does this game become? This game has a little

55:25bit of flop potential to it at least from >> you know this should be a really fun high-scoring game for the Cowboys but

55:32it's as we talked about it's on the Cowboys to make it that way >> and I'm actually not as confident that

55:38they will make it that way. They're I think they're going to lean on the run and then play action off of that. But

55:43it's going to it's going to like >> come down to a few high leverage plays like okay that like second and two shot

55:50to pickings does that connect? you know, because if it doesn't connect, you know, we could be like, how many how many of

55:57those do we get and how much, you know, kind of grinding uh eight minute drives do we get?

56:02>> I do I do think Shanheimer in his heart like wants to throw more like he he he does want it's what just got him in

56:09trouble like with the with the media and then they were having success with it.

56:12So like why stop last week? Also Jaylen Carter kind of quiet quitting that game.

56:16uh if you're watching it's like oh yeah he does not care right now [laughter] and and maybe it's funny like yeah Eagle

56:22I just you know Eagles is just it's just thank god we don't have to talk about them but it's like yeah

56:27>> [laughter] >> uh yeah it's it was rough but uh it is a situation where you look at historically Dak in this spot has been like really

56:35incredible. Uh he has 18 career games at home with an implied 30point team total.

56:41They're at 30 and a half. He's thrown multiple passing touchdowns in 16 of those games. He's averaging 24 fantasy points in those games. Uh like this is a

56:50spot you can kind of do whatever you want though to this Cardinals defense.

56:53So I hope they choose to remain go back and like light them up a little bit through the air and then if they want to

56:58use Javvante they can. Um just because it I want them to drive the game state so the game state gets there in total.

57:05But uh it is a little bit worrisome if they do say like hey we had that success let's just come out and do the same

57:09thing. I think they could do that again if they want to.

57:14I think they could do that, too. Um, the Cardinals are worse against the past, though. They're titansy in that like you

57:20can do what you want, but um you should probably pass actually if you want to score points. And uh you know, the

57:27success rate isn't isn't that bad against the pass, but they're allowing big plays through the air. So, I mean, >> I'm just hoping them beating the Rams a

57:35couple weeks ago like opened everyone's eyes to like being more aggressive cuz we talked about the Broncos doing it and the Broncos tried like they were

57:43unsuccessful at it because Bodex was still playing bad. I know Bodex scored fantasy points, but like they tried like they were Bix 15% success rate, 15th

57:51percentile success rate.

57:52>> Yeah, but he had like his highest A dot.

57:54Like they were trying to do they were trying to like push things through the air. So, I'm hoping that like cuz I hope

58:01just like I said, if we know these things, it's like, hey, the Cardinals want to drag you into like a fist fight

58:05to win this game. I'm hoping that the the opposition like realizes like, well, what if we just scored 20 points in them

58:11in the first quarter? Like, [laughter] >> yeah, I I think if you if you told me this was like the week for Cowboys, I

58:19think that's exactly what they would do.

58:21I'm just like, >> yeah, I get >> kind of reading the tea leaves on the team, I'm like, >> where are their heads at right now? like

58:26do they think they found, you know, is this kind of going to be like a mid-season identity crisis >> type thing? Um, it makes me just a

58:35little bit nervous about >> Yeah, absolutely.

58:36>> about how aggressive because this is the team we need to be aggressive. If this if this team isn't aggressive, the other

58:41team is going to be psyched about that.

58:43They're not they're not going to be pushing it into, you know, high-flying territory.

58:47>> Absolutely.

58:48>> Um, that said, I don't think I like I'm I like CD Lamb in this spot. I like George Pickkins in this spot. I like Ryan

58:55Florenoi in the spot with um Jake Ferguson. Jake Ferguson's doing the thing where he's just like nuking the tight end position on the Cowboys

59:03because he's still seeing like twice as many routes as Brevin Span forward, but Brevin Span Ford sees all the targets.

59:10He has a uh over the last two weeks 33% and 29% targets per out run. Span Ford does, but 27 and 25% route

59:18participation. Ferguson's like again he's like double that. 52 and 54% routicipation, but target spout runs of 10 and seven. So, it's like, hey, you

59:27run a bunch of empty routes. Anytime we're interested in targeting the tight end, we'll put spin for >> throw you an endzone target once in a

59:33while. Like, [laughter] >> that's it.

59:36>> That's it. So, and they're all like big first read stuff. First read, uh, per route run, first span four to 27 to 29%.

59:44Ferguson's at three and zero. So this is like very much like driven by the coaching staff. They're they're they're kind of over the Jake Ferguson

59:52experience, but not enough to where he's not like actually kind of still the starter. So the whole tight end thing is

59:58just a quagmire now.

60:00>> I think that's good for Florenoi, who's he's been at 95 and 82% route participation over the last two weeks >> and very clearly taken over as the

60:07number three target. I I think maybe Span Ford will eventually, but he needs you can't you can't be that guy with a

60:13third of the routes or less.

60:14>> No, no. F is a good player, too, man.

60:16Play played well in reserve last year whenever they needed to call on him.

60:21>> Playing well now when they need him and really set himself up because he's a free agent this year. So, >> yeah, good point. Uh, by the way,

60:30Ferguson is not they have Ferguson signed through like 2029.

60:33>> So, that's what the other thing I was like, they kind of just I mean, he's kind of like becoming Kobe Parkinson,

60:39but like Parkinson's employed, you know?

60:44So, I think we're going to be dealing with Jake Ferguson in our lives for for a few more years. Uh, all right. Vikings

60:52at Lions. This game you've been kind of hinting at for a while. I'll throw this to you on the Lions, >> brother.

60:58>> What are we going to see?

60:59>> I took like three hours on this game.

61:02>> Write it up. It ruined my It ruined my whole flow because like I have had like I've had thoughts per I've had thought

61:10like I've had thoughts in my head like about this game for so long that I was just like >> I mean it's such an awesome like real

61:16football game.

61:18>> It like >> it is an awesome real football game.

61:22>> Well, I mean we have all like these >> are tell us >> Yeah. Well, we have all those pulling dynamics, right? Like you have the the

61:29Vikings who we inherently know are a good defense. Like we know they're a good defense, but literally the last the last uh you know what 120 passes they

61:38faced have been against just absolute vagabonds like Daniel Jones, Tyler Shuck, Malik Willis. Uh I I apologize to Baker Mville. He's not

61:48>> You can throw Baker in there, man. You can throw Baker. Baker had 12 dropbacks last week. He [laughter] can you can

61:54talk about them you want.

61:56>> Yeah. And then the end of that game was was Tyson Begent in week two. But like we know they're a good defense. Like

62:01this is in Detroit. So like I talked about lastly like even though like you you have to prepare you're going to give

62:06up points to the Lions and I expect the Vikings to give up more points than they have to that list of quarterbacks. They

62:14allowed one passing touchdown to those guys. [laughter] I expect them to give up some points.

62:19But on the same flip side, like the Lions, who we inherently know are a good offense, have faced nobody uh no good

62:25defenses either. Uh, so I such like a push and pull of those things to kind of meet in the middle a little bit.

62:31>> Uh, Brian Flores in this matchup historically, >> uh, has blitzed Jared Goff's face off.

62:37He's blitzed everyone's face off, but the Lions scored 30 or more points in every one of these games until Ben Johnson left.

62:46Uh, they did score 24 at home last year in Minnesota. Uh, only 10 points on the road, but they didn't have cash.

62:53>> And in that Go ahead. that week 17 game, Jared Goff was fourth percentile in EPA per play. He's he's been good in the

63:00first three games against them, you know, over the over the Brian Flores era. Um, and not good in the the final

63:06three games, 42nd, 50th, and fourth percentile in EPA play. So, as you as you know, Ben Johnson was there for those first four. He was good in three

63:16of the three of the four. He wasn't great in the last two without him and he was quite bad in that in that final game

63:24last year.

63:25>> Yeah, absolutely crushed them. He he he actually blit ramped up and blitzed them 58% of the time in that second game and

63:31he's blitzing at a high rate this year.

63:32First game he is actually pretty light in the in from a blitz perspective. They the line scored one late touchdown. They

63:38were never the Vikings kind of controlled that game. That was a JJ McCarthy start as well. Uh but the blitz really gave the blitz and pressure were

63:46big problems for golf last year and they have a better offensive line than they had especially in what they put on the

63:51field in that last game of the season but when pressured last year against Vikings he was 13 of 22 um against the

63:58blitz he was 15 of 30 only five yards per pass attempt when they kept him clean he was still really good in in

64:04those games you know 30 of 44 he had 7.4 four yards or pass attempt. But this is a spot I think when you look at golf,

64:11we've been kind of riding him as like a QB1 uh in-game high QB1, but this is a spot where I think it's like even if he

64:18has a game that's usable if you play him in managed leagues, it's not a spot where like you're expecting to get 30.

64:24Um and that's kind of the story with all these Lions, right? Like cuz you're playing Gibbs, you're playing Aan Raw for sure, but like those are guys you

64:30expect to still even if they have a game that is good, like Jonathan Taylor had 110 and a touchdown against the Vikings

64:36last week. If you get that in your manage league from Jir Gibbs, you're like, "Cool. Yeah, that's fine." Uh, but like these guys from like a DFS salary

64:42perspective, like it's hard to see like to make an angle like where these guys pay off their salaries. Like where's the

64:48where is the bomb that has dropped for these guys? Um, and that's kind of how I like just see this game from the Lions

64:54in general. And we can talk about some guys like nuts and bolts stuff. There's some real fascinating stuff with the tight ends and running backs, but in

65:00general like you could see you could tell me like where you see the Lions, you know, performing here.

65:06Well, I think the the one way to kind of get a gauge on how you think this game is going to go is do you have Kyler

65:14Murray or Jared Goff ranked higher this week because that that's kind of the decision point with Goff, I think.

65:22>> Yeah. And I'm the Viking side's a whole another fascinating side of this argument because they've just been cuz that list of quarterbacks that I just

65:29gave you, they have not try they have not been pushed to score any points. And no, granted they could have lost some of

65:35those games, you know, because they played a couple of them closer than they should have been, >> but here like you one, you don't go into

65:42Detroit and not expect to score some points and they they they haven't just thrown the ball at all in the second

65:48half. And I do think they're going to have to here and that could at least open some stuff up. I don't know it's

65:53going to be good. Like it's hard to say like, you know, it's going to be good, but at least they're going to probably

65:58have to do some stuff. Even if you have the best defense, the best defenses, eventually you have to outscore someone.

66:04We saw this with Seattle last year.

66:06Seattle had two games where they had to outscore the the Rams. They you had to outscore them. It didn't matter. They

66:12they the best defense in the NFL, >> you know. So, this is one of those spots where I think the Vikings have to

66:17understand like you need to score. You need to find a way to score points and they're going to be pushed to score more

66:22points than they have been uh to start the year.

66:24>> I think that's right. I mean, the Okay, so you know, the Lions the Lions have been the most efficient team against the

66:29Blitz this season. They have their weapons healthy. They go for it on fourth down a ton. You know, they're going to they're going to get like more

66:37drives. They're going to extend drives further than most teams. You know, you you mentioned the the Viking schedule. I do think that like

66:47they placed they placed Jordan Love played Jordan Love in week one. Caleb Williams was actually pretty efficient by the the standards of the Vikings,

66:5546th percentile in EPA per play in that week two game.

66:59>> Like >> in the rain, he hurt his hamstring when he's about to run in for a touchdown. So like, you know, they didn't completely

67:06shut down Williams given the kind of the the context of the weather and stuff. I mean, I still think it was an impressive

67:12performance against a good quarterback, but it's still like not like, you know, he wasn't in the 10th percentile or something. And then Baker Mayfield,

67:18Malik Willis, Tyler Shuck, and Daniel Jones. Like, yeah, I mean, >> that's what you expect them to do to those guys. When you're a great defense

67:26and you go against those guys, you expect them to get slaughtered.

67:30>> And they did. So, you know, good good job. But, I mean, from a from without getting into kind of the sort of the more interesting stuff,

67:40which I think is around the tight end and the running backs, if you look at the receivers, I mean, Ammon St. Brown.

67:45He's coming off his most efficient game of the season. He's been their go-to wide receiver against the Blitz. He has 32% targets per out run, 2.53 yards per

67:53out when against the Blitz. Um I think he's set up here.

67:57>> Yep.

67:58>> Like I'm not that worried about him from a seasonl long perspective. Like I don't have him as high as I normally do, but

68:06he's like wide receiver seven for me this week. Like he I think you're you're rolling with Amar. You feel fine about

68:11it. Um, Jameson Williams also kind of interesting in that he's this downfield kind of boom bust guy. One of the ways

68:21that you could see the Vikings get exposed this week, I think, like they're the third best team in preventing explosive pass plays, but they they

68:30don't rate super well in PFF's coverage grades. They're they haven't been super efficient in protecting the the deep middle of the field and they are

68:38blitzing at just an absurd rate, 68%.

68:41Like if the Lions are just like, you know what, we're going to lose some drives. We're going to win some drives.

68:47We're going to we're not going to just like cower here. We think we can put up points against you if we're

68:53>> have to do you can't success rate this defense to death. You can't.

68:57>> Right. And and we're not going to talk about the Monday night game because it's Monday night, but that's the same thing

69:01the Bears run into because they're a team that wants to success rate defenses to death >> and like Seattle's a defense you can't

69:08success rate to death. Like that's you got to you got to try to w like you said win just win a few drives and hit big

69:15plays. That's how the and the Lions you would hope you know they understand this as well.

69:21>> I hope so. And I think Ping's been pretty good this year as the OC. know Ben Johnson, but you know, it's it's a

69:28nice rebound from where they were last year. And so I think Williams, who's been like a deep threat this year, he's

69:35he has a 15.8 AD, you know, it's not like, oh, we're going to have him you, you know, is more of an intermediate

69:40type guy like no, [laughter] they have like Sam Leorter kind of doing the underneath stuff and Williams is a deep threat, but he's a deep threat who got

69:48actually get open. He's 86 percentile and open score. He can actually draw targets. He has an 18% target share, which isn't great, but you know, it's

69:55solid enough. So, I think he's the most interesting guy as far as like this could actually be like one of the games

70:03where he hits, you know, where like Amanra like he can be fine. I don't think he's smash.

70:09>> Yeah, >> he's been good. Fine. I would be surprised if he absolutely smashes. I mean, maybe not that surprised. He's

70:14Gibbs.

70:15>> Yeah. Yeah. Uh, Amanra has been good for the reasons you said. Like, historically, he's been the most bankable dude in his matchups. That

70:21makes sense. He's a good player and he gets all those hots, you know, like everything against the Blitz is him.

70:26>> Um, >> it it's always tough too like when we cuz we do some of the stuff as like a general stance like you know Jared Goff

70:32like is good versus the Blitz and like I said well well yeah he's good versus the Cardinals blitz like you know like we

70:37lose some of that stuff. [laughter] We do that we do I'm guilty. We do some like the coverage stuff too. Like this

70:42guy crushes cover three. Well like yeah he crushed the so and so's cover three like does it m like not Seattle like you

70:48know what I mean? like we do some of that and lose some of that sauce. And the other thing too is inversely like a

70:53Brian Flores blitz like isn't a blitz.

70:55Like there's only a couple there's like three teams that do are do like starting to copycat like what he does like you

71:00know I mean he's giving you mug looks like we're going to drop into like quarters or fire zone out of it. Uh the

71:06Bucks are starting to do a lot of this the Flora stuff too. U so it's just a different dynamic too. Um but you know

71:13Aman Rah is the guy that gets all like the the the stuff that you would look for. Uh, and I keep going back to the

71:19week one game like Love in the week one game like wasn't hyper efficient against the Vikings, but he had enough big plays

71:26and then they blew it that game in the fourth quarter if everyone remembers.

71:29But Christian Watson had six for 150 in a he had 80 yard catch and run and then Matthew Golden also had six for 95. They

71:37also gave up an explosive to Tucker Craft and they gave up an explosive to Johnny Smith in that game too. So like

71:43you this is how you have to approach the Vikings. like you are just not going to line up like I said in success rate then

71:48you got to hit some chunks and win some drives and >> this group of guys >> is like you got to go back to week one

71:55in the Packers game to find a group of guys that are even comparable to like what the Lions have and the Lions are

72:01probably better than those guys.

72:04>> Yeah. No, I think so. Uh the the one note on on the Vikings is with the kind of the way Flores plays, he has had

72:11really high double coverage rates pretty much all season like 60%.

72:18>> Why?

72:19>> I mean because the only you could only send two to three guys out in a route against them. So like they the way they

72:24play these defenses where they're bringing eight guys line of scrimmage.

72:28>> They Yeah, I got these notes too, man.

72:31So like >> that's a great point. So, running backs are blocking 21% more of the time than they typically would against the

72:36Vikings. The Vikings play the they face the lowest rate of 11 personnel in the NFL, 40%. They face the highest rate of

72:4312 personnel and they face the second highest rate of 13 personnel. They they have teams teams are so scared prepared.

72:50They're preparing for Brian Flores to do this in such a capacity that they are only getting three guys out in pass

72:56routes because they're so they have to devote so much resources because they don't know who the [ __ ] is blitzing, who

73:02is pass rushing, and they're able to have the six defenders that they don't know are blitzing or the five plus are

73:08able to just guard three guys. So, they're two guys >> and connected to the to the lack of pass routes. That's such a good point.

73:14>> So, they're able to have two to three guys on everyone that's running around.

73:21They're kind of making the offenses do it to themselves a little bit.

73:24>> Yes. Yeah, 100%. That's why their double cover rates are so high, though.

73:28>> Yeah, that makes that makes a ton of sense. Uh, one of the the things that jumped out to me is the double cover

73:33rates have been really high against tight ends in some games. Like you've seen Tucker Craft at 50, Kate Utten was at 45,

73:42um Jawan Johnson was at 33. So you uh Coulson Love was at 28. So, you know, they've got extra guys since there's

73:50only a couple guys running routes, but it is it's Sam Laaporta, I think, is in a tough spot because you worry about him

73:58as we've talked about with like Jawan Johnson. Greg Doulich, you know, sees his route participation drop in this spot. Um, as does Johnson. Um, and so

74:08you're Coulson Level was only at 69% route participation. Uh, Tucker Craft was coming off injury, but still just 48% that week one. So, you've seen,

74:18>> you know, a little noise in in who they've played, but there does seem to be a bit of signal here where you're

74:24seeing guys pass block more and like if you're not a good pass blocker, maybe just run fewer routes um against the

74:31Vikings like Noah Fant was was pass blocking more against this defense um and that kind of thing. So, Sam Leaporta, you know, we could see more

74:40right here, you know. Yeah, if you got just like a a Y tight end, like a Jawan Johnson type, like that dude is smoked

74:46in this matchup, like [sighs] >> this is real tough. Like when they face K, they face Concaid next week, like Concaid's probably cooked in that

74:55matchup.

74:57>> That Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, >> unless they're just like Dawson Knox, you're full-time why, and Concaid, you know, you're [laughter]

75:05>> you might as well.

75:05>> But it'll be fun. In a couple weeks they play uh KD and it'll be real fun to see that.

75:10>> That'll be fun. That'll be very fun. But Leaporta this year is seeing double coverage rates of six 38 uh and then 27

75:17194 23. He's not like that's not typically a big part of what he's having to deal with. Uh 34th percentile in

75:26double coverage this year. So I'm a little bit worried about him where you worry about the routes and you worry about how many, you know, defenders he's

75:34having to take on when he does get to run a route. Um he's the he's the guy that I'm would say gets I think the

75:39biggest dock to me in this matchup.

75:44>> Yeah, I think that's fair as well. Um yeah. Yeah, because I mean these guys just have to stay in. It's it's that's

75:52the the bummer, man. Um the what was it last year? I was trying to think about uh when Cashman played. I think Cashman.

76:01Yeah, Cashman did play in the in the He played in both games because Cashman is like a section that's the only like time

76:06tight ends like really started to give them a bunch of trouble. Um but yeah, they're just a real hard team like to

76:12get running backs and tight ends production against. Uh they are number one with a bullet in receiving points allowed to running backs again this

76:19year. They were number one last year. uh because they make your running back like by so like a typical like an assignment

76:25if you're a running back like your assignment is like you can't you can't release you there's no check release there's no release like your assignment

76:32is to pick up one of these guys so you're they're just not running routes and able to get like they're you're so

76:37you would think like against a typical blitz like you just throw a hot to a running back it doesn't exist with these

76:41guys because they're they're picking up the blitzers now because they're sending so many guys um Jir Gibs last year they in just two games against the Vikings

76:51last year. 20% of his pass blocking snaps came in those two games. He pass blocked on 47% and 48% of his pass plays

76:59last year against the Vikings to the point after the first game Dan Campbell came out and apologized to Jir Gibbs.

77:06They had a postgame press conference where he apologized to his running back.

77:09Jir Gibbs had 15 snaps in pass protection, gave up seven pressures, and just got the [ __ ] beat out of him like

77:15the whole game. Um, and Dan Dan Campbell like felt bad for him afterwards. Uh, like so how like what's the adjust I

77:24don't know like the adjustment they can make to get he had five catches for 28 yards total in both games. Jir Gibbs.

77:30>> Yeah.

77:31>> Like um so it's like yeah it's like it's real and obviously there's no David Montgomery uh involved. Uh, so like you

77:38remove that, but it's like they have to find a way to combat this and it's just really hard because the way the

77:42structure of the Vikings defense inherently just makes your running back block. So, uh, maybe that you do like a Brock Wright or like a Tyler Conklin

77:53some stuff like where you can have these guys play like >> unless you can get like pancake blocks per per snap get you points then

78:01>> it's just a real tough spot. Like I said, they have given up some points to running backs like Jonathan Taylor had

78:06the 40-yard touchdown run. Uh Ali Gordon had a big explosive play and like you know if you're looking for an explosive,

78:11Jir Gibson definitely gets you an explosive. I just think when I look at 93 on FanDuel and 98 on DraftKings, I'm

78:18like is there a place like >> because you win season long like if you're like if if you even thought >> if you're benching Gibbs like what kind

78:27should you send me a picture of the team cuz like congrats on that incredible draft, >> right?

78:32>> Yeah. I I don't know how you possibly bench Gibbs. I mean, >> right, >> like literally, he can have his worst

78:37game of season and probably outscore the guy you're thinking of starting instead.

78:41So, >> I still think he could get you 1820 fantasy points. Like, there's an avenue where he gets 1820 for sure.

78:48>> And your season stuff you're going to take.

78:50>> Think about it.

78:51>> Think about it this way. He he gets he gets turned into James Cook here. He's James Cook in this matchup.

78:57>> Right. Right. 100%. you're starting James Cook. [laughter] You're gonna start James Cook this week. You would start James Cook against the Vikings.

79:07So, >> and he did have he had success. He's >> he had a bunch of good games with the in the Ben Johnson era against this, but

79:15like Flores has changed his defense.

79:17Like he's adapted like the >> we said we we kind of talked about it a little bit last week like every NFL

79:23season there's like a new something what something gloms on to whether it be the Wildat or some [ __ ] right? And this

79:29year it is on the defensive side. It's all these mug fronts, man. Like this is the thing this year that that like

79:34you're starting to see more teams do it.

79:36And the Packers, Jonathan Ganon is a team. We watched it last night and just gave Bryce Young hell. Like they're the

79:43Bucks the Bucks have really swerved into it this year, too. Uh like this is the new thing. This is the thing, man. And

79:50it it's really effective against these types this arc type of running back because this is the doit all space eater running back. [sighs]

79:57>> Yeah. You don't want Jir Gibbs blocking.

80:00>> Yeah, [laughter] >> you don't. And I think there could be because, you know, I have the same notes that that you had about, you know, the

80:07pass blocking and, you know, he had he had just 13 routes in week 17 last year, which is lowest mark of the season. Um,

80:15three receptions for three yards in that first week nine game, which is the better of the golf games. Uh, two for 17

80:22in the second. So, yeah, it's it's all concerning for Gibbs as a receiver.

80:28But I do like there it would be interesting. I don't know. I mean, this is like this is kind of just hope. But

80:36man, it would be really cool if they did actually split him out a little bit or like get, you know, have like a two

80:44back.

80:44>> Well, you can't, like I said though, you can't play 11 personnel against this defense because you remove a dude from

80:50the box. Like this is this is the hell of this. This is the hell of this.

80:56Yeah, I guess you're right. [laughter] >> Yeah. So, I mean, it is the probably the best way to think about it is like,

81:02look, he's James Cook this week. It's okay. He's still gonna he's still going to have some nice runs. And >> and we've seen them allow some rushing

81:08efficiency, like I said. So, that's the avenue. That's the one thing I could see the Lions maybe even saying, "Hey, if

81:14you want to bring dudes to the box, like we're good enough to run against that."

81:19>> Mhm.

81:21>> Yeah. They kind of leaned into in the Packers game last week. Like they were like, "We're going to keep running.

81:26We're just going to keep running the ball."

81:30>> Yeah, they've they've kind of played things a little bit more to the past this year, but they can definitely run

81:35the ball when they want to.

81:36>> Yeah, I'm the second half of that game like they were just That's when Gibbs started to get real hot and like we wish

81:41he would have ran that last one in.

81:44>> It's funny. He It looked like he hurt himself >> because he almost he almost hurt himself. Yeah. It was like a horrifying

81:51the way he twisted.

81:51>> It was scary.

81:52>> And it's just like to just score. Just scored.

81:56>> Anyway, [laughter] >> but it's fun. I I am so jack I'm so excited for this game, though. It's fun.

82:04>> Well, what what are your thoughts on the Vikings side? Because, you know, we they haven't had to pass. Kyler Murray has

82:09been pretty bad this year, but if you look at the last few games, uh, his last two games, he's averaging, uh, seven EPA

82:18per game, which is pretty solid. 46% success rate, which is like kind of average. Uh, he's been real bad for the

82:26season in in both metrics. Um, he's he's currently worst in success rate at 38% minus.6 EPA per game, which is quarterback 34. So, it's not been a good

82:37season for Murray so far, but the last two games have been better. Uh, he's played some bad defenses, but he's also

82:44playing a bad defense again and a defense that people are are tend to be pretty aggressive against. The Lions have a 70% pass rate against them

82:54and they're seeing a fastest pace in the league. Like, everyone knows the drill with the Lions. They're going to score points. You got to bring the question

83:00for the Vikings is like, >> but how prepared do the Vikings need to be to score with their defense? You know, that's that's kind of how

83:07aggressive are they going to be?

83:08>> Yeah. I hope that they realize at least more so than they have been against that list of quarterbacks [laughter] we read

83:13off.

83:14>> Uh >> yeah, and the Lions like the Cowboys have been a little bit better getting some guys back in recent weeks.

83:20>> Um I don't know if they'll get Kirby Joseph back. He started to practice, but they got Brian Branch back last week.

83:26And Jordan Love did have some fits where he was a little more inefficient. You know, yards for past 10 completion rates

83:30have been down for both Brassette and Love the past two weeks against the Lions, but they've still given up multiple passing touchdowns in every

83:37game this season. They still have the most passing points per game. Like you said, it's really here it's about coaxing out the volume. Like this is a

83:44team that just hasn't thrown.

83:45>> And if we can get more drop backs, it's not even drop backs. Well, one, we want more drop backs for Justin Jefferson

83:51because his underlying metrics are still fine. It's just >> they're really good.

83:54>> They're just not throwing, especially in the second half. Yeah, >> he's like number I'll put up for his first like first half production's

84:01actually been really good for Justin Jefferson. They're just not throwing in the second half. But the other avenue is if you're going to have more dropbacks,

84:06what else happens on dropbacks with Kyler Murray? He's fourth in the NFL in scramble rate, >> right?

84:11>> You get more running opportunities with Kyler Murray and he has been running this year. They just also that it hasn't

84:16shown up because they don't throw in the second half. They haven't thrown in the second half at all. Um, so that's what

84:22I'm more interested too about this is that the Vikings, you have to believe that they have to know like we have to

84:28score more points here than we've been and they're going to be a little more aggressive and if they're more aggressive and they have to sustain

84:33being aggressive, then we have a better run out for these guys we care about, particularly Justin Jefferson.

84:40You probably know the number, so I'm not going to ask you what Justin Jefferson's yards per out run is, but if we were to

84:46conduct a poll of the fantasy public, what do you think the the kind without looking, you know, >> I don't think he's having as bad a year

84:55as he had last year probably.

84:57>> So like, yeah, which I now I don't know off the top of my head where he was at there, but like one.7

85:04yards per hour run, something like that.

85:05That's what I I think people would assume he has. He's at 2.44. 44.

85:10>> Yeah. And 2.2 at Kyler.

85:12>> Good when he runs routes.

85:14>> Yeah.

85:15>> And he's still over two yards at Kyler.

85:16Uh >> he is he is the wide receiver four right now in first half receiving yardage.

85:24>> They just don't throw. They thrown 30.

85:26He he he they just don't throw in the second half. That's what's killed him.

85:31And I believe they're going to have to still throw. I think they have to throw for four quarters here.

85:36>> Yeah. Yeah, I I think this is an interesting spot for Jefferson. Um >> I I like him a lot this year.

85:41>> He stands out.

85:43>> Yeah, he's still playing.

85:45>> Uh 29% first read target share. Yeah, still playing really well. 18% first read uh target rate. All the underlying numbers look like pretty good. Um but

85:57yeah, they're just not I mean, even if you look at like Murray, like Murray, like I said, over the last couple weeks,

86:02his efficiency has been better, but he had 150 passing yards last week. So it you you leave last week feeling like

86:08what the hell >> cuz >> well cuz your fantasy points still only count the same. You're like oh I for what Jefferson even had uh four for 40

86:17or something like you're like oh that sucked.

86:20>> Right. Right. [laughter] >> But you know the the efficiency stuff is is still helpful because it's helpful for exactly this type of thing where

86:28it's like hey this this team is now in a different situation. The volume's about to get ramped up. um you know, what

86:36would that look like? And it I it looks I think potentially pretty damn good for Justin Jefferson and kind of for Kyler

86:44Murray. I I do have Murray one spot ahead of golf. I'm curious.

86:47>> I do too. I have them ahead too.

86:50>> Yeah.

86:51>> Yeah. And it's none of these things like I think like even from like a man league like I'm I still think like the Lions

86:56guys can give you functional games. It's just I I think like my brain is because you these guys aren't getting benched

87:01anyways. Maybe golf you would stream for if you felt like bullish about another matchup. But like the other guys, the other guys you're playing, I think about

87:09it more from just like I'm thinking about them from like a DFS angle of like their cost and not being able to pay out

87:14what they typ the Lions at home typically pay out. [laughter] >> Yeah, 100%.

87:19>> But I am in intrigued by the Vikings just from the stance of like I believe they're going to have to be pushed to

87:23the to the largest degree they have this year. the Bears would have been the one other game, but that game was played in

87:29a freaking monsoon and never it never got to a game environment what we cared about. Um, and then week one we didn't

87:35even have Kyler because he got knocked out of the game, but they were aggressive in the second half thing because they had to be.

87:41>> I also think with something like this it is helpful to have like more tape on it, you know, like there's he's doing he's

87:48innovating Flores. I mean, >> and so it's just like >> the team's going to actually overcome it. It's probably gonna be a team a

87:55little later in the season.

87:57>> It'll be also too that when these teams play the second the second matchup too.

88:01>> Yeah, it'd be it'd be actually pretty funny >> because there are some worse Well, they were last year. Last year it was worse,

88:09but >> because when you think about like you know preparing for an NFL game like you have a finite window to prepare for a

88:14team, right? like there's you only have so many hours to prepare for them and adjust and a lot of teams brass tax

88:20probably like are operate with like in a in a specific airband but like the Vikings are an outlier like they do

88:25something that no teams really do and it's hard to just like get ready for that in one week. I'd be real curious to

88:32see like teams that have a buy before them. I wonder if they do play any teams that have a buy before them and like

88:36have a window to like prepare for them.

88:40>> Once someone figures out a thing that works better than running two routes and blocking with everyone, [laughter] >> then everyone's going to use that, but I

88:50don't know. No one's figured it out yet, so maybe maybe that's the attack the Lions have to take. Uh TJ Hawinson, I

88:57think, is actually kind of interesting here as well. He has 1.98 yards per out run, a 26% targets per out run. He's

89:0390th percentile among tight ends in open score. Um, you know, I I was I noted in the walkthrough that the video that

89:11people were dragging him about uh where he's running routes or running doing not even running routes, he's running around cones or something in uh

89:19>> Do you remember that? And it's just like Jesus, bro.

89:22>> It looked bad. Like it looked >> terrible.

89:25>> I imagine [laughter] but like who cares, you know? He's a big He's a big tight end who has to find space over

89:32the middle and he's actually doing that quite well. So, I think Hoginson has been he's a you know, he's been literally disrespected

89:41and um that might keep maybe that'll keep the ownership low on a on a guy like TJ Hoginson. I think this is a

89:47pretty good spot for him actually.

89:48>> Yeah, they did they juiced him uh because of the Lions tight end stuff.

89:52Like I just I also think just that so many people have just been playing tight end versions that it just inherently

89:58they were just like, "Yeah, we're going to we're going to get ahead of the cart here cuz he went up to 4600 this week

90:04>> uh on DraftKings." They were like, "Give me Mark Andrew."

90:06>> They're like, "We're going to price some of this in. We're going to enforce we're going to start to price enforce some of

90:10the the line stuff." See, Brian Branch came back last week and they still gave up a good game to Tucker Craft.

90:17>> Uh thoughts on the the Vikings backfield. Is uh is Aaron Jones going to go? It's he practiced uh uh la last

90:24week. Um so >> uh or uh yesterday I didn't see today he was limited. So the fact that he even just starting to get limited I think is

90:33optimistic that week try. He does I do wish he would just take a week off of the the backfield split. But they went

90:40right in and then got hit in that knee like a week off.

90:44>> So I I haven't seen maybe he'll be a guy on Sunday they decided to just like keep down because of that. like he's been so

90:49beat up and they've given him such a high workload.

90:52>> Um, but they did go right back to the week one usage while before he left the game. It was just a literal dead split

90:58in every capacity.

91:00>> Um, which sucks, but what do you do?

91:02>> Yeah. Yeah. Mason, I think, is pretty interesting if Yeah, >> because they're only playing because after Jones left, it was right back to

91:10when Mason was out. Mason's got every touch.

91:14>> Yep. Yep. Yeah. I think they'll feed him. Uh he had a 9% target share last week, Mason. And that was with Or to

91:21Jones. So, you know, he's not Jones as a receiver, but I mean, frankly, Jones isn't Jones as a receiver anymore. So, um you know, he

91:32get a little PPR volume there. Uh all right, next game, though.

91:37>> Is the Raiders >> great real football game. It'll be fun.

91:41We're going to have a lot to talk about.

91:42Um, yeah, the way the Lions handled that and we can maybe God, it would be nice if they can find some way to get Gibbs

91:50running routes. There has to be a way.

91:53>> Oh, there to get there. There are better ballers than us that I'm sure just listen to our whole conversation. It's

91:58like, well, they should do this and you know, but >> just tell us in the comments. Give it give give away the alpha. Tell us tell

92:05us how to get Gibbs open.

92:07>> Yeah.

92:07>> Not even open.

92:08>> I am just Who cares about open? just running around.

92:12>> Yeah, I'm a I'm a very mild ball knower.

92:14I knew my assignments on the field as a slot receiver. I would not be playing this game. They would I would be nuked

92:20because 11 I was, you know, not to be the cliche Caucasian receiver, but I was a slot receiver.

92:24>> You'd be nuked, but only because of the the schematics, not because [laughter] of talent.

92:29>> Just not to swerve into the archetype of being a white receiver that plays a slot, but that's what I was. [laughter]

92:38>> You had a lot of heart. I I heard you were gritty.

92:43>> You were scrappy. They said, >> "Well, people always forget when they meet me because they only see me on here." But you've met me in person, too.

92:48Like, I am a lot taller than people think I am when [laughter] they like, "Oh, you're a lot bigger than I

92:56thought you were." I'm like, "Oh, yeah."

92:59>> Yeah. Yeah. [laughter] >> All right. Raiders and Jets.

93:05the uh the Brock Bowers is a receiver uh take has become literal. He was at 0% of his snaps in line

93:15>> last week. Uh spent 40% out wide, 60% in the slot. Just a straight up [laughter] wide receiver. Uh he's a slot receiver

93:26who spent I mean he spends more time out wide than a lot of slot receivers. He's more out wide than like Juell Robinson.

93:33>> Absolutely. But that's the problem, right? Like uh we've been trying to we've been so I I made a tracker for

93:39this. I'm just going to keep tracking it. Brock Bowers against tight ends and safety or linebackers and safeties. He's caught 20 of 20 targets for 13.4 yards

93:49per hour or yards per target. Against uh quarterbacks against cornerbacks, he's caught 14 of 28 targets, 6.7 yards per

93:57target. The Rams knew Matt Matt Tuscano had a >> Rams that was that was >> but that at least Kubak realized it

94:07though. I will say this. So like but anytime >> it seemed like he realized it in real time.

94:11>> Yep. Yeah. it it so because we talked about this going into that matchup uh about like teams like starting to do

94:17this to Brock Bowers and he was like well [ __ ] I'm going to he's still not going to play in line but I'll play him

94:23in the slot because you can't do some of the things to to slot receiver you can do out wide especially with boundary

94:29cornerback play. Uh and he realized that and he moved him he caught four or five targets for 51 yards from the slot on

94:36Sunday in the slot this season. Not a typo. He's been targeted on 46% of his routes. 4.1 yards per out run. Like this

94:44is the sweet spot. He can moonlight out wide. I'm cool with this. He He needs to be a more primary slot player though or

94:51he's going to they're going to keep running into this issue where teams put just actual quarterbacks on him. And the Rams are putting two on him at some

95:00point. uh Tus Tano going back to like had a great So here's the other thing we need to also happen for Brock Bowers is

95:07the Raiders have to figure out a way to run the [ __ ] football. Uh so like the Rams last week, this is where the Matt

95:14Tuscano tweet goes, you can find this on his thread. anytime they went to 12 personnel, the the Rams went to dime and

95:21not only dime played too high safety still cuz they said you aren't running the ball like we do not care like you

95:28like you you can't run the ball like your team is you you're just you're dysfunctional you cannot run the football so like that's the other avenue

95:36I think that could open up the Brock Bower stuff even more is if they can start to find any kind of [ __ ] run

95:41game.

95:43I forget who it was, but someone on Twitter had uh you know classic genty reps that show he has no vision and it

95:51was it was Mike Washington runs.

95:54>> Also, I I want to say to this before we >> like intentionally it was a bit >> it was a bit but just to get back to the

96:01thing also this is not because sometimes you know when you get on these tangents people are like oh so you're down on a

96:07player. Brock Bowers last two weeks has 70 yards and 73 yards in these games where it feels disappointing.

96:14>> Like >> it's frustrating because you you see in the early part of the game he's he's shut down and taken away. But the thing

96:19that's so great about Brock Bowers, he has a 35% first read target share that obviously leads all tight ends. Um he is

96:30dominating the the the offense for the Raiders. It's a the offense is about finding ways to get Brock Bowers the ball. And so like if they realize like

96:39oh >> this isn't working to get him the ball.

96:41Like they're going to have other ideas for for how to get him the ball because the offense really >> requires them to be able to get him the

96:48ball at least to an extent. I mean Trey Tucker stepped up in the last couple weeks in in an impressive way.

96:54He's been quite productive. Michael Mayer stepped up as a checkown target against the Bills. So it's not like he's the only option. And you could be in a

97:01situation where Brock Bowers just deals with more cornerback coverage and more double coverage and it just is like a little bit more of like pulling teeth

97:10for him to have big games and it's like we get more of these kind of like middling games. I hope not. I have a lot

97:16of Brock Bowers. I would like him to to nuke again soon. But, you know, even for for like a tight end, a guy who scores

97:22like it's like, "Oh, no. We only scored 12 points." No, >> that's that's >> like this dude it his absolute down

97:29games have been for four for 70 and six for 73. Like >> yeah, [laughter] >> like you know I know a bunch of people

97:36are just like well he's going to score 30 every week. like, you know, >> I also I do think like the cornerback stuff. I mean, I think

97:45there's definitely signal to that, but you do have him going against like if you're going to if he's going to have to

97:50face cornerbacks and then those are the Rams quarterbacks. That's I mean, even with McDuffy out uh last week, that that's still bad. Like that all all of

98:00their quarterbacks are good.

98:01>> Uh they have four good quarterbacks.

98:04If you look at like yards allowed per coverage snap and stuff that every they're they're deep, they're talented, it's a really good secondary. Uh I think

98:11against the Jets, like if even if you rolled out the same usage as last week in the same defensive um game plan

98:18against him, I'd feel pretty good about it. I think he'd be fine.

98:22>> Well, they're they're fifth in yards per target allowed to tight ends out wide, but they're 21st in yards for target to

98:28slot tight ends.

98:30>> Okay. Okay.

98:32Yeah, I'm I'm I I feel good about that.

98:34>> I feel like you said he's I think he's Oh, yeah. And that's why I said I wanted to make sure I got back to that that

98:39like this isn't a >> Yeah, I'm just more fascinated because he's such a unique player like we've been talking about it since he came

98:45back. Like I'm fascinated how teams try to stop him. Like we just like I'm always into into the weeds on that stuff

98:50and that's what I care about. And it's like I saw in real time though last week like I said like Kubak kind of realized,

98:56oh, I see what they're doing. Let's do this. And I I hope that he's more in that I hope he's more in like the 60%

99:03slot range and he can moonlight still and you can pick your spots, especially at the goal line, right? Like in the red

99:08zone, I think he's fine out wide because then you can just use his size where he doesn't have to really win on a route,

99:13right?

99:14>> Like he you can now he can just box out a smaller dude. Like we saw this last year, he came back against the Jaguars

99:21and uh it was Tyson Campbell, right? and like he just like just mugged him and he's like that's where it's fine but

99:28like if you want like diggs to beat or uh or him to run like a dig route against the quarterback that can run

99:33faster than him like that's a tough it's tough even for a big dude but >> they were talking about on the broadcast

99:38too like he's just not he doesn't have the speed these quarterbacks know >> they're the fastest dudes on the field on the defense.

99:44>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he is he's slow for a wide receiver like he he is, you know, that's where >> like a true outwide wide receiver is

99:54>> tricky.

99:55>> Yeah, but that's where you would want him to think be out wide red zone stuff using then you can use him to cook and

100:01set stuff up from the slot.

100:03>> And I have faith in Kubak that he will and like >> and I still think he's the premier tight end one in fantasy football.

100:12I have him I have him tight end one this week over McBride and I've I've seen it the other way. So um

100:19Genty uh and Washington as you mentioned are not running well. Washington has had a little bit better metrics as far as

100:27like rush yards were expected breakaway yards but he's actually been worse in success rate >> which makes sense if you're watching

100:36expected in EPA.

100:38>> Yeah. Yeah. Um, but it makes sense, but also Gent's been so bad that it is sort of like, god damn, dude. They can't,

100:46>> you know, this is rough. But I I the comp I was making is that Genty kind of looks like 2025 CMC,

100:54but with a Kalin Black in Mike Washington like this year. So, you're not getting the full, you know, he doesn't have full control of the

101:01backfield like CMC did last year. It's more like this year that way, but you're getting like the least efficient runner in football.

101:10But a guy with 1.91 yards per outr run and a 17% target share. He ranks running back two in ESPN's receiver rating.

101:17Genty does. And yeah, I mean, he's not CMC. He's, you know, certainly not prime CMC. He's not even, I don't think, last

101:25year CMC is a receiver, but like you're not that far off. And the role is awesome.

101:29>> That's the frustrating part though, right? Like cuz when you watch him, it's not like check down like [ __ ] charm

101:36share stuff. Like he's running wheel routes that he ran that side.

101:39>> Nice catches.

101:41>> Why can't we get this in the run game?

101:43Like he looks explosive as a receiver and why does he look so different as a runner? It's killing me.

101:48>> I don't know.

101:49>> It's absolutely I I >> the fact that Washington's been really inconsistent, too. I think you know >> it's environment.

101:56>> It tells you something about the offensive line, right? Like they're not blocking well, clearly.

102:00>> Yeah.

102:01But >> I don't think it's just the environment.

102:03It's it's it's probably something to do with Jens as a runner, but >> Yeah. I mean, it just it's so crazy

102:08because he looks dynamic as a receiver.

102:11>> I know.

102:12>> Why can't we get even an accidental explosive in the run game? [laughter] >> Like you figure if you get this many

102:18handoffs like eventually just someone falls down, right? Something like >> Yeah. [laughter] >> Yeah.

102:25Like right now he he looks like he looks like RJ Harvey but like with a with a rushing value >> right like

102:36>> Yeah. No, he is he's he has the exact same target. I think I'm pretty sure R.J. Harvey has a 17% target share. They

102:42have the same target.

102:43>> It's like R.J. Harvey say like if like if we gave RJ Harvey a bunch of handoffs, this is what he would do with

102:47him. We saw it last year. He's like RJ Harvey in the passing game and like a poor man's Emanuel Wilson as a runner.

102:56>> Damn it, man.

102:58>> What's going on?

102:59>> And you could and they have started to notice at least from a rushing perspective because they have reduced his like share of backfield runs.

103:08Um >> right, >> he's cons especially from the open. It's not really helping the >> No, it's not really helping the offense.

103:13As I said, and this is stuff like if if if JTY or any of these dudes can get going as a run game, then you're even

103:18more bullish on Powers.

103:20>> True. Yeah, cuz they want to run play action and and all that stuff. So, um but I don't know, man. Like, the the

103:27receiving good for >> Jens did you see his uh commentary this week too, Jes?

103:33>> No.

103:33>> Like he came out and had a It's funny him of all people, but he's like, "Oh, yeah. I think we're going to be able to

103:37get the run game going that they got a few guys in that team that don't like tackle." And I was thinking in my head,

103:41I'm like, you of all people like or providing bulletin board material for a run defense like like brother, do you how much film have

103:53they watched on the Raiders run defense?

103:55They're like, "Shit, man. Maybe we don't even need to to play the run this week.

104:02>> It's going to roll out. It's going to be uh third and one. Just line up and dime." To be fair to the Raiders, they

104:10have faced a bunch of good defenses like the past month outside of the Bills.

104:18>> Yeah. Yeah, good point.

104:20>> But I mean, this is a two-year sample though with JT as like an as a rusher.

104:24That's why it's tough to erase. It's like two years of this same stuff.

104:29>> I mean, he did have whatever that ankle foot injury was. Um, which probably factored in.

104:35>> Oh, yeah.

104:36clearly was limiting him a few weeks ago >> uh back in week five. You know, he's at 53% of snaps and stuff. So, he's

104:43probably not 100%. Uh is probably another part of it. But look great as a receiver though. Like >> he does. He genuinely

104:51>> he looks legitimately good.

104:54>> Yeah. I mean, and getting downfield like you're you're you're watching him like he seems like he can outrun a quarterback as long as he doesn't have

105:02the ball. It's like the ball. [laughter] He's got huge biceps. So like I know he's not like having trouble lifting the

105:09ball, but that's almost what it's like cuz like the ball's too heavy.

105:13>> Running with his medicine ball.

105:16>> Yeah, medicine ball.

105:18>> He's just running with a kettle bell.

105:19Like they just handed him a kettle bell.

105:21Take off with it, dude.

105:23>> Ashton, have you been using this kettle ball as the football? [laughter] >> That explains a lot. Like he has he has

105:31he has 94 air yards this year already.

105:35>> Yeah.

105:36>> And people say that like that's that's a huge number for it's RB3 for the season.

105:40Like that's schemed usage. You don't get yards as a as a checkdown dude like that. You're getting like behind the line of scrimmage stuff.

105:49>> No. And he's he's been you know okay so Bowowers comes back in week three.

105:53Target share drops to 10%.

105:56you know, been 21 and 25% in the first two weeks with Powers Out, but since then, 17 15 16 20% like he's he's

106:03involved, man. Consistently involved uh as a receiver that I think we can kind of count on that role. I have him as a

106:11low-end RB1 this week with with Washington. Last week, I assumed Washington was not going to play, ended up suiting up. Um, so you know, somewhat

106:19similar to where I ended up on on Genty.

106:22But >> yeah, my my only worry this week >> still in >> I know you you have been the bull here.

106:27My only worry this week in context of previous weeks is they could be just more neutral game script this this week

106:33than previous weeks. This could be more of a neutral game, >> which is actually bad for Gente. They You're saying it's bad because they

106:42might run. [sighs] >> It is right.

106:45That's how bad he's been as a runner.

106:48>> Well, Kurt Cousins has been legitimately bad like the the first three quarters the past month.

106:54>> But I do think this is a game when you look at it, it's like because the offenses they faced the past month,

107:01>> you know, Chiefs, I guess, grain of salt, but like Patriots, Bills, Rams the last three weeks, they all put a point

107:07and the Jets might not run away from them.

107:11>> Right. Right.

107:13the team that lost to the Miami Dolphins might not run away from this.

107:18>> Although Gino was efficient last week.

107:20>> Yeah, Gino's playing good.

107:21>> Gino's playing good. He's got uh you know, Raiders defense that's been pretty poor in coverage. They're 25th in passing DVOA, 25th in EPA, 29th in

107:30success rate. Um and he's got some weapons, man. Garrett Wilson obviously, but Omar Cooper has been now Omar Cooper, you know, it's a smaller sample

107:41for him, but he's at 4.77 yards per route run. Uh, leads the league um if you set the threshold to whatever I

107:50needed to set it to to to get my chart to work. I forget how many routes he's run, but it's less than like 55, which

107:55is ahead of the the normal threshold for this week. Um, but yeah, I mean, he's been awesome when on the field and like

108:03kind of consistently great. you know, he he took a a yard 30 he had one catch for 30 yards on one route. So, he had 30

108:09yards per route run in his in his debut.

108:12Got hurt.

108:13>> Almost say flowers numbers >> at the end of that play.

108:16>> Yeah, almost flowers with Lamar in the slot. Uh Garrett Wilson or sorry, Omar Cooper in in week six, 3.68 yards per

108:23hour and then 5.0 last week. Um, Gary Wilson's targets have fallen off quite a bit since Cooper has returned, but you

108:32know, it'll be the type of thing that bounces around some. I do think Wilson, I have him as a wide receiver, too, this

108:39week. Um, I'm I'm taking Cooper a bit more >> seriously, someone who can earn targets and make plays, but obviously Wilson's

108:45still the top guy here. Um, >> but but your thoughts on on this offense, which also now includes Adam Mitchell returning. he was mostly kind

108:55of just out there last week. Um, and only 55% round participation. So, you know, he has a little bit ways to go to

109:02get back into the 80s where he was to start the year, but he could be there this week. Um, so this is an offense

109:07that's kind of humming. Got older guys back.

109:10>> Yeah, he played mostly in in one to two wide receiver stuff. Cooper was still that was still like the next that's like

109:16the next area he needs to level up is uh he ran around on 39% of the one to two wide receiver dropbacks. So, anytime you

109:23get the Sadi on the field, it's like usually at his expense, which is a bummer because he's a better player right now than Sadique. He has uh three

109:31of their top four longest plays of the year already and their top two uh longest plays. Like, he's been the juice, man. We talk about like these he

109:38this is what he did in college. He's a big play dude. Crates after the catch.

109:42Caught a touchdown out of the back field last week. Um the Garrett Wilson, he had his lowest target share of his career

109:50last year or last week, I'm sorry, of his whole career. That was the lowest target. I'm pretty sure that won't happen again. But also, I wrote him up

109:56in a similar fashion to how we have talked about Nico Collins that, you know, we have taken for granted like Garrett Wilson's target share because

110:04the guys he's played around, but you know, they've got more guys and you have a quarterback who's willing to that read

110:11can read a defense and takes what is there to him and won't is like doesn't have to glom on to Garrett Wilson. So, I

110:17think that a little bit of that, but he's not going to have the the target shares that he's had the last two weeks

110:22are going to be static big picture. But I do think like he's probably a guy that maybe he's more in that 22 to 26% range

110:29as a ceiling instead of the 26 to 30% range that he typically was because Gino will will throw it open dudes like CJ

110:36Stroud like since they've had more guys like he's like yeah I'll if the defense doesn't give me this I'll take it. So

110:41there's maybe a little bit of that going on too.

110:44>> I think that is I think that is right.

110:46Yeah. that he if he if Gino knew that Garrett Wilson was like his his only like realistic shot at having an open

110:53guy, he'd lock on.

110:54>> Yep.

110:54>> But if he doesn't need to lock on, then then he and it elevates the offense, right? You have >> a quarterback who can kind of scan the

111:02field and, >> you know, see what the defense has given him and, you know, take advantage of open guys. Like that's good. Like that

111:09makes that makes the potential for big plays go up and all that. But it's not strictly great for for Wilson. I think

111:15Wilson though like in the same way that Nico Collins Nico Collins is still going to have some huge games. Yeah.

111:21>> Um obviously Nol is now now hurt but >> um still like it's it's kind of like the the the additional options especially

111:29like with a guy like Wilson who does have real talent. I mean he he's 98th percentile an open score. He gets open.

111:37He consistently draws targets. Like this isn't some kind of like right place, right time type receiver who gets kind of bumped out of his role by a better

111:48player. This is a a player who's been the only like semi-talented player uh you know semi-talented receiver on his

111:58team in a long for a long time. And now another guy who who can really play comes along. Plus 80 Mitchell is going

112:04to be a a solid field stretcher to help probably draw coverage away from both guys. Um I think both guys will eat over

112:12the course of the rest of the year. It's going to be a little bit more difficult to predict target share though.

112:18>> Yeah. Yeah. This is a great and and it feels like, you know, oh am I going to keep chasing the Cooper points, but I

112:22mean he's got great individual matchup here, too. I mean Raiders are 29th in points allowed to slot receivers, 27th yards for target, 30th and touchdown

112:30rate allowed to those guys. So, he's got another great setup again, too, on front of him.

112:38>> Uh, Bree Hall, do we have anything today on on Hall?

112:43>> Uh, they're, uh, listing him, I think, as questionable officially, but it sounds like he's going to play. We said that last week, though, too, and so

112:49maybe they won't play him. But, uh, they did say if he plays, he is the starter.

112:54I don't know what that means for in terms of split that we talked about last week like we expect some type of split

113:00with how good Brilen Allen's played uh in some capacity. The question is does it turn into an Aaron Jones Jordan Mason

113:06split or is it more of like a Blake Corm Kairen Williams thing where like game state can impact impact it too? Uh that

113:12just remains to be seen.

113:16>> I think it's somewhere in between those two. I I I think that Allen has been such a good runner and Hall was not a

113:23good runner before leaving um that and then Hall was quite a good receiver. Um that it probably is more like they have

113:35different role. I guess it's probably not like either of those. It's probably closer to Kiran in some ways where Kiren's like the receiving down back,

113:41but I >> I do worry about >> a runner. Yeah, >> he's not as good as a runner. I I worry

113:46about Allen just taking more of the rushing work and kind of it looking like what people were kind of hoping Cororm

113:54would do. Like I think Allen might do to Hall what what people are thinking Cororm might do to Williams where he's

114:00taking over as kind of the lead runner, but then Hall is operating as like the secondary runner and primary receiver if

114:09that makes sense.

114:11>> That's that's where I think that's where I think it'll end up. Yeah, that's I think logically it ends up I just don't

114:16know about this first game like what's the plan like a Moster Achan type of thing maybe.

114:25Um although Achan in that season was an incredible runner as well but you know something like that.

114:31>> Um yeah was it who who did Jamal Williams split with? Swift. I guess that's bad for for Hall because he got phased out

114:40that year. Yeah.

114:41>> Yeah. But like different different roles is kind of what I'm trying to articulate.

114:47>> I had Hall as a lowend RB2. I don't I'm not sure where you ended up on it.

114:50>> Yeah, that's kind of where I have I mean it's a good matchup. I just don't know the the workload in the split, right?

114:55That's all it is. I kind of wrote as both these guys is like, you know, if if you don't get a touchdown from either

115:00guy, like you might feel disappointed because if they're if the split is like closer to 50/50 and you don't get a

115:05touchdown, like it's probably hollow yardage. But that's kind of just guesswork, though. Like it's I mean this is a bad defense against running backs.

115:15Like they have gotten absolutely cooked man. I mean since week one Marian Hampton had 115 yards and a touchdown against them. They gave up 130 yards to

115:23the Saints backfield, 180 to Kenneth Walker, 180 to the Patriots backfield.

115:29>> Uh last week they just they allowed both guys to go over 100 yards. So maybe just both guys go over 100 yards again. I

115:35don't know [laughter] because Cororum and William go. It's like that would be really funny.

115:40>> It's a really bad team against running back play.

115:43>> So maybe they just lean into it and that ruins all of our Cooper and Wilson stuff anyways because they're just able to run

115:49it down their throats.

115:52>> Hang on. Hear me out. Omar Cooper in the backfield again.

115:56>> Yeah, let's [laughter] do that.

115:57>> That's how we get there.

115:58>> That's how we get there. Let's find our way. [laughter] >> Any thoughts on Mason Taylor who's coming off a pretty big game? his top

116:08three games now in yards per route run and target share have all come against the Miami Dolphins. Uh all three games

116:14of care remember that when they play again. Uh but no, it is another good spot for him too if you if you want to

116:19ch it feels point chasing some of these guys, but they have the same layup. Uh like Raiders uh right >> Raiders are giving a ton of touchdowns

116:26the tight ends. They're a little bit better from like an efficiency stance than the Dolphins were. Uh I can't wait to talk about the Dolphins when we get

116:32to the Patriots. Uh but yeah, they're giving up touchdowns to to tight ends.

116:36So, there is some touchdown equity here too for for Mason Taylor. But I did note that like, yep, it turns out now his

116:41three best games in his career all come against the Dolphins.

116:46That's hilarious. Um, all right. Browns at Steelers. We've talked about a bunch of good games. Um, the not so good games are we're getting

116:55to them here. Uh, [laughter] I came away a little bit nervous about uh the Steelers offense here. um

117:06>> where I wrote up the the Paris game and I was like, "Hey man, you can count on the Steelers to pass the ball." And

117:14watching that game, you could tell Aaron Rogers didn't there was some thing where he's like, "Why do you keep calling run

117:19plays to McCarthy?" Like he was getting pissed off. They just kept running the ball and they kind of pulled out a

117:25little bit of like a super runheavy script. um and started passing a little bit more, but they still had a minus 4%

117:33pass rate or expected. Um they were 10% over expected on first and 10, but they they for the first time really had a

117:40tilt to the run in that game. Rogers has just not been efficient this year. Uh his efficiency, he's at minus 1.8 EPA

117:52per game and a 43% success rate. That's quarterback 35 and quarterback 30.

117:58you need the volume. Like, you really, really need the volume. And the Browns defense is good against the pass and not

118:06so good against the run. Um, and so you could see the Steelers get away, you know, from them just kind of constantly

118:13chucking it. Rogers was good against the Browns the first time they played, but I'm not that doesn't mean give me a

118:21ton of confidence. He's he's been so inefficient this year um that I don't know. I I I think it would be totally

118:29reasonable for the Steelers to to lean on the backfield this week and and limit play volume, but you do at least have a

118:36concentrated uh target tree now with with just DK Metaf and and Jeremy Bernard is the only two wide receivers we care about. What are your thoughts on

118:43this on the Steelers? Yeah, I think if you're box score chasing, you're going to be disappointed because you look at, oh, well, Rogers just a few weeks ago

118:52was the QB5 in this matchup had 20 fantasy points. But you, it was the exact layout you said. I mean, he had he

118:59had the volume. He was through three quarters of that game. He was 13 of 26, 5.6 yards for pass attempt. He had a

119:06touchdown and interception, and then went absolutely nuts in the fourth quarter. threw 150 yards, 11 yards a pass, two touchdowns, chasing points.

119:14This is now the Steelers as a home favorite. Uh they are coming back from overseas, so maybe that has like a

119:19little bit of impact, but they've typically been good against the Browns in the spot. Uh I would expect like a different dynamic of game script to play

119:27out. And if you don't have that same dynamic of game script, like you said, like we're like what are we chasing?

119:33You're chasing uh a kind of a false lead because you're just looking at the overall points he scored against them uh

119:38in the first game. I mean, he's against man coverage, too. In the first matchup, he was 13 to 28 in that game. Uh, so

119:45like, they sacked him five times. They pressured him at a high rate. When you play the Cleveland Browns, you talked about at the Titans, dude, just run the

119:52football against these guys. Just run the football against these guys. And they give up explosives, which is the Jaylen Warren special.

120:02>> Well, it should be the Jaylen Warren special.

120:05>> Uh, they they had Rico D. Listen, Mike >> with a 22% target share last week.

120:10>> Drigo, >> what the hell's going on, dude? I thought I thought we they they you know what it was? They they gave me that that

120:18final game, the 36.8 PPR point outing and it's like we got it's happened. We did it. You know that it's like that was

120:27the game I thought doubt I was going to play. I had, you know, Warren down as like a high-end RB2 for pretty much a

120:34whole week because I couldn't even believe I couldn't even let myself believe that we were gonna get one one last game of Warren. And we did and it

120:43was awesome. And then they were like, and back in the committee you go.

120:48Why? God damn it. Finally, they fully saw what he was.

120:54>> Yeah. Do ran more pass routes than him.

120:56And here's the the killer part that one thing I was always worried about even if it was going to be really tilted to

121:02Warren was still like who gets goal line touches and dowel came in for the only goal to go touch and I was like son of a

121:09like it's like you know it's it's literally going to be he has to score from outside of the red zone still it

121:15was awesome in the game by the way like had 137 yards from scrimmage because he's an awesome player leads all NFL

121:20running backs in yards per touch u but it feels like he's going to He He still has access to some of the high value

121:28touches, but it feels like Da has enough of them that it's just going to be a nuisance.

121:35Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

121:36It's going to be a real nuisance. It's just Yeah. It's so frustrating because he's been >> he's been one of the best running backs

121:44in football. Like he's >> the number one running back in in rush yard over expected success rate. He's running back three. He has 20 rush yards

121:52over expected per game. That's running back three. He's running back one in the ESPN's receiver rating. He has 1.79 yards per route run.

122:00Like he's he's running back seven elusive rating. He's running back four in breakaway yards per game. Like he's doing all the stuff. He's super

122:06consistent. Anytime you get a guy who's the most consistent runner in football and is running back four in breakaway yards per game and is leading as the top

122:14receiver in receiver rating, like play that guy. Uh >> yeah, play that guy. No, how how is that how is that not happening? Um

122:24>> I mean he did have 21 touches to be fair. He have 21 touches. It's just I don't want I want him to get goal line

122:30touches.

122:31>> Not enough. Not enough. Give him the goal line. Stop throwing a dowel, dude.

122:36Stop throwing a dowel. It makes no sense. [laughter] >> Yeah. Like I'd be okay if Dao was just like a dude that comes in and takes some

122:43early down [ __ ] and soaks up some wear and tear, but like all the stuff is still the cool stuff still is Warren,

122:50right? That'd be fine. That'd be fine.

122:53Um but yeah, I mean Dao last last week had 14.6 expected points per game.

122:59Warren was at 10.5. So high value touches are going at least last week were going to to doubt. So hopefully that's just a weird one game kind of

123:09blip. But uh you actually can put it in the paper that I'm mad cuz I am mad.

123:14>> You can. Yeah, you can. I'm mad as well.

123:16>> You can you go ahead and put it in the paper.

123:17>> I I told you that I have a main event team that was is a Gibbs team from 101 and we got Warren as our RB2, which

123:25still feels fine, but like we were we were tracking to have like a a nut run out.

123:31I have a friend who drafted like an absolutely horrendous team and it was he just like followed some tool that told

123:36him to take like seven or eight running backs in a row and you know it's like a home league team. So he's like what do I

123:42do? I was like you have to get a receiver. Like his his starting number one wide receiver was Alec Pierce. I was

123:46like this this you have to get someone like this is not not okay. But he traded away Jaylen Warren and he's been he's

123:55been texting me like you ruined my team.

123:59Your team was already ruined, dude.

124:01>> It was already ruined.

124:04>> You can't play seven running back running back. I'm like, you can't you wouldn't have even played him this week because you have like all these other

124:11running backs you would have played instead.

124:12>> Amazing.

124:13>> Anyway, yeah. Uh I I think I prefer Jeremy Bernard a little bit here. Um is kind of the idea of him maybe being the,

124:23you know, the the kind of more shallow AOT guy against the Blitz. But I don't think either of these guys is like super

124:29interesting um in this matchup.

124:33>> I'm more just worried because I think the volume's not going to be the same as the first game. And I

124:38>> that is my one tearown. Also, Jeremy Bernard's being used like Pittsburgh or she rice and I don't know if that's

124:44going to work big picture. [laughter] >> I'm into Rice is he scores fantasy points, man. Well, I'm just mean on but

124:54without like the the full like it has the only this is the only way we could move the football type thing,

124:59>> right?

125:00>> But like he's not like getting any real receiver stuff >> which is kind of not it's like starting to reveal itself.

125:08>> Yeah, it's very very shallow AOT type stuff for sure.

125:11>> Yeah.

125:12>> Um on the Brown side, I'm kind of more interested in the Brown side this week.

125:20Um, Steelers are are very strong against the run. They're a bit of a pass funnel as a result. Um, and Casey Conpion's

125:28coming off this big game. Uh, I I'm I'm pretty excited about Conpion. Uh, his his AOT was deeper last week as well.

125:38Uh, getting him a little bit more of a of a well-rounded role. He's up to 89th percentile in open score.

125:45>> Starting to see like a like true break.

125:47We kind of saw it bubbling like Boston hit the ground running more but then with Conpsion on you're like I think

125:52feels like this is getting >> he had that concussion when we were ready to ramp remember the concussion yeah what's happening

126:00>> yeah so he he is he's coming up I mean you know maybe a little point JC here as well but but to your point some of these

126:06point JC guys are are set up well again and I think he is he is set up well here and you know this is a spot where you do

126:13actually want to pass Watson is coming off a strong game against the Titans. Uh 66th percentile in EPA per play, 90th

126:21percentile in success rate. Uh the the Steelers pass rush has been pretty bad this year. 28th in quick pressure rate, 25th in pressure rate. They're they're

126:30like a solid pass defense overall, but better against the run than the pass. Uh I think the Browns should be able to

126:36move the ball, you know, decently well here. And so Conpsion in particular stands out as as a somewhat interesting play. The Steelers defense is uh kind of

126:45tough to crack because they're not really giving up production to anyone for our for our world, but like they don't look great on paper as a defense,

126:52but they're doing enough to just where like we're not getting any like fantasy like appeal from dudes. Uh and that's it's like it's kind of frustrating

127:00because like when you're writing up you're like, "Oh, but like why why are they not giving up points, right?" Uh Jamal Dean also left the first game with

127:06an injury. They have been better when he plays, especially as a pass defense. Um but uh yeah, Conception 111 area yards.

127:13Uh the season high, his previous high was 57. So like he maybe this is what like just Bernard it'll open up for him

127:20like they're just using him in this capacity because it open because Conception was being used like that to open the year like very much and like it

127:27started like it just it just is expanded like it's just expanded. So maybe we'll get that with Bernard. Uh but he's

127:33playing real world real wide receiver in recent weeks. That's when we were starting to get bullish like the liftoff. He had eight targets

127:40in the first game, too. So, I definitely think that it with with the uh more dropbacks because the Browns actually played with the lead for most of that

127:47game, we have opportunity to get him going again, too. He he's the better of the two. I like Boston as a prospect uh

127:53a little more than you did, but he still is in the role where he's not in a major target earning role. um he can have big

128:00games because of the types of targets he gets, but Conception's in the role where like if a dude is going to have double digit

128:07targets or maybe even have a dumb game where he has like 14 to 16 targets, it would still be his role.

128:14Yeah. Yeah. Conpsion um has the same target share as Boston, but hasn't run as many routes and has gotten up to

128:23this. That's another part of the kind of the liftoff stuff where we're starting to see him move from like >> part-time slot receiver to full-time

128:29usage and now seeing him, you know, really high targets prop run with a higher ADOT, like they seem to be adding

128:35levels to what they're asking of him.

128:38And that's all very exciting. And so, yeah, if someone's going to have like a ton of targets, Conpsion is a much

128:43better bet. Boston does look like a good player. He's a 17.2 ADOT and still a 21% target share.

128:48>> He has 47% of the team's air yards.

128:52That's a 98th percentile mark. So he can still >> He's wide receiver too in area share.

128:57He's a wide receiver seven in endzone and he's literally playing like the X profile like to te uh >> but doing it well.

129:04>> Yeah. Do it and doing it well. Uh uh 36% of his targets have come on throws 20 or more yards downfield.

129:12>> Uh so like again you'll just run into weeks where like especially attached to Deshun Watson like that's just hollow.

129:18But you're also gonna run into weeks where like you're like, "Shit, he came off of two bad games. I'm gonna bench

129:22him." And then he he has four for 130 and you're like, "Son of a bitch."

129:29>> Yeah, >> I do feel like he's a guy especially like because there's going to be frustrating weeks just based on the

129:34offense he's in. Like it's all these guys. These guys all are good players, young players. Boston, Conpion, and Fannon are good young players. It's just

129:42the offense they're in is going to be volatility and you have to live with it.

129:45But like I feel like if you start playing the game of like I'm going to bench this dude or like what but I don't

129:50want to cut him or I don't want to trade like you're just it's going to drive you crazy. It's just cuz that's just the

129:54nature of this offense.

129:57>> Yeah. It's a shame this offensive line isn't good because you could have I mean it's better than I thought it was going

130:02to be. But like it's a pretty awesome situation from a weapons perspective for a young quarterback. They're going to have to figure out offensive line as

130:10well which is not >> with the team we just talked about too.

130:13Jets, this this this Browns team and the Jets team are set up for the future if they can if they can find that young

130:18quarterback. It's here. It's on the table.

130:22>> The Jets even more so. Um because because they have the offensive line, >> they also have all the picks.

130:28>> Yeah. God, those Colts picks, dude.

130:31>> The Colts picks are crazy.

130:32>> Well, I saw right now if the season ended, the Jets would have 69 and 11.

130:39Man, >> I don't I haven't been following the draft class that that closely, but the it's the quarterback class doesn't actually seem very good anymore, right?

130:47>> No, it's the same thing. I think this is going to be a yearly thing though um with the quarterbacks because like

130:52you're excited about talent with quarterbacks. I'm no QB eval, so like whatever. Take this all with a grain of salt. But there it's the same thing

131:00every year where like there's no progression with these guys because they don't have to be coached. You can just leave the [ __ ] school. you're like,

131:06"All right, like I'll just I'll just go somewhere else and get make a bunch of money." So, like >> there's like no development with these

131:14guys. It's it's the same thing. We we went to it last year >> where they're like, "Oh, this looks like a good class." And then when we get to

131:20it, >> none of these guys are day one picks like the Drew Hollers and stuff because they never they never grow and progress

131:26like you would the trajectory expand.

131:28And that's happening now with these college quarterbacks.

131:31Like what's funny is like the top guys now from a performance stance cuz like Arch hasn't expanded, Sellers has expanded. The guys that have expanded

131:38are the guys you don't want to believe in. like Mensah. Mensah's like 510 and and and throws like >> 30 m an hour like [laughter] and he's

131:47like the best looking of the dudes and you're like this isn't an arc type no one wants to put a like a top 10 pick

131:51into like >> well I I do a bunch of stuff with you know looking at statistically and one of the guys who's popped for the last

131:58couple years you know looking into the future classes and every time I mention this dude's name to people who like actually study college football they're

132:05like nah is is Mayaba from USC he kind pops in some fantasy friendly stuff, but people are like, "Nope, that's not going

132:12to work." I'm like, "Oh, >> and Chamber Chambers is fun, but like you see like last weekend >> if you just keep that dude in the pocket

132:19like he's too small, man. Like he's just like >> Yeah.

132:25>> Yeah.

132:25>> It's tough, man. It's tough. I just wonder if >> was kind of Dante Moore I was also pretty skeptical of last year.

132:31>> I think everyone is.

132:33>> And then he's what? He's he's out for the year now.

132:35>> Yeah. The rest of this year. Yeah. So, it's all it's taken a hit again from a prospect stance. I just wonder if it's

132:40going to be a yearly thing. I think we're going to have a QB development problem in college because of the NIL

132:46stuff like someone tweeting about this.

132:49>> They're going to jump around, man. I don't I don't I believe it's real.

132:53>> Everyone, right? Like everyone.

132:55>> Well, Davis Davis had the >> Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I forgot about that, dude. [laughter] >> He's vindicated. I'm telling you, Davis

133:03is to be fair.

133:04>> He's vindicated, man. the the quarterback development.

133:07>> But also, brother, you don't go into Mina Kim's mentions and think you're coming you you ain't gonna win that one, brother. Like, you got to

133:15pick your battles.

133:18There's a one you're coming out of alive.

133:22Like, no shot. [gasps and laughter] Absolutely no shot, dude.

133:29>> Oh, man.

133:31>> Where were we? I don't know what the hell happened. I was Brown Steelers.

133:35>> Harold Fannon. Harold Fannon also a good player >> coming off a good game. Uh I I think he you know he's he's a volume based option

133:42kind of more season long.

133:44>> Um any thoughts on the backfield with with Dylan Samson back?

133:48>> We saw Quenton Judkins fall to to 3% target share.

133:52>> Uh and and look, he's been at uh you know because Samson um basically hasn't played until last week. So 10% target

134:01share for Judkins in week one. 177 214.

134:05He has 1.55 yards per route run, a 30% targets per route run. And that number makes me actually a little bit confident

134:13that we could still see some receiving value for Judkins moving forward because his route participation for the season is only 32%. He was at 24% last week. I

134:22the nice thing about Judkins is that they're looking for him at a really high rate when he's on the field and he is on

134:26the field for early down stuff, but they don't always run, right? So, he's out there running routes. So I think I think

134:33last week kind of overstates the Samson concern as far as you know the the receiving work declining. I it will have

134:40an impact but you know I would I would take the over on like a 7% target share for Judkins the rest of the way. I'd

134:47probably take the over on nine to be honest. Um but yeah I don't think it'll be all that high. I think he'll probably

134:54finish around like a 10 11% target share this year. Yeah. I mean, the problem he has is that throwing to Judkins is just

135:01not as optimal as throwing to these other dudes that are good now.

135:04>> That's true.

135:06>> But he is >> he's got a higher yards per out run than Canon.

135:10>> Yeah. [laughter] >> It's not nothing.

135:15>> Yeah.

135:15>> You know, he's not nothing as a receiver. And he looked pretty good last week, I have to say. Watching him

135:19watching him against the Titans, he was he was moving.

135:21>> Yeah. He had he had some juice.

135:24>> Yeah.

135:25Um, but yeah, I mean, he's going to be kind of a touchdown dependent RB3 for now.

135:30>> Yeah. All right, let's move to the Falcons.

135:35>> Falcons. I'm going to close this blind uh because I forget this time of year.

135:38The sun creeps in here, so I'm going to close this blind.

135:40>> Okay. Um, all right. The the Bucks.

135:44We'll we'll start with them. Baker Mayfield last week uh turning a 93rd percentile mark in EPA ever play, fifth best mark of the week. Uh, but he was

135:54quarterback 12 on the week with just seven EPA because he had 12 dropbacks.

136:02That's three drop backs per quarter. Uh, last week, Jacobe Brassette had 54 dropbacks leading the week. That means he had more dropbacks per quarter than

136:13Baker Mayfield had all game. When I wrote this up, I was assuming Amecha Ibuka would play because he it looked like he had his concussion symptoms, you

136:22know, were were clearing and he was on track to clear the protocol. It seemed, but he's has a foot injury as well and

136:28is actually not going to play in this game. I mean, we've kind of seen the plan, right? We've seen the goal is to

136:35like literally not pass the ball at all.

136:39Um, now the Falcons are a pass funnel. opponents have a 68% pass rate against them, 4% proe. Uh they're pretty decent against

136:50the run. Um they're they're they're okay against the passing numbers, but teams are clearly not afraid to pass on them.

136:56So, it's possible that uh we see the Bucks I I thought with Ibuka that they would be kind of a normal team again. Without him, I think

137:06all bets are off like that you could easily see them just do this hyper hyperconervative thing. I mean, they they were like it was an absurd, you

137:17know, like their pass rate was, I believe, 21%.

137:20Um, that's the lowest of the year and going to be the lowest of the year. You know, no matter how many more games

137:26we're playing, you [laughter] know, we're not seeing they're not seeing uh lower than that. Yeah. 21% and then a minus 28% pass rate ever expected, which

137:36is the lowest mark we've seen all season. The second lowest pass rate we've seen is 41%. So 21% for the Bucks

137:43last week, 41%. Um, which is was set twice by the Falcons. So on the other side of this game, the Falcons want to

137:52run the ball um but also face a pass funnel Bucks defense. So kind of an interesting setup where it's like the

137:59offenses versus the the defenses in terms of what they tend to have um as as opposing game plans don't sync up. So what are your

138:08thoughts? I think you're muted as well.

138:10What what are your thoughts on uh how this sort of game environment shakes out?

138:15>> Yeah, it's tricky because you it would on paper it would play out to where we'd get both teams pushed to throw a lot,

138:20right? And it's really hard to bank on that happening. Uh one with a bua injury. Uh they're they're also at home,

138:28so like they probably try to run the football a lot. Buckyy's been legitimately good, too.

138:33>> Uh great.

138:35>> Yeah. And he had the split was all in his favor again last week. It's a little bit skewed from the full game stuff, but

138:40in the first half, he played 88% of the red zone snaps, had eight of 10 backfield touches in the red zone.

138:45That's like kind of the one thing people going back to like is it does he have this? And I and I'm sure we'll

138:50eventually see Shawn Tucker pop up and take like a first quarter touchdown and we'll be pissed off. But it looks like

138:55he has regained like the fullon like no, this is still his backfield. We also have Kenneth Gainwell banged up coming into this week. He's questionable. if he

139:03wouldn't play, we would get a lot more receiving work, too, for Bucky Irving, who is a good pass catcher, too. And

139:09Baker Mayfield is throwing to running backs um at a high rate. Uh he actually has a >> Jaylen Daniels was not. So,

139:17>> yeah, exactly. He is a 16% target share with Mayfield in the game, Bucky Irving.

139:21Uh and so that would be huge if we get no gain. Well, >> uh because the Falcons still are pretty good against the run. They're giving up

139:29production to backs, but it's like mostly touchdown and receiving driven.

139:33Um, so that would be huge for Bucky Irving as well, but it is a tricky game to figure out in terms of dynamics of

139:39like, well, how do these offenses really operate because it shouldn't work on paper, right? Um, what they want to do.

139:46I I have not a lot of faith in the Bucks offense as a whole in general outside of Bucky Irving. I don't know. Like Godwin

139:53had a 45% target share, but how real is it because they threw they had 11 dropbacks? It's like I don't know like

140:00like what am I supposed to do with that?

140:01Like [laughter] >> well can I tell you a bullish note on Bucky Irving which is that he had an 11% target share. That's up from uh that's

140:10actually in line with his his um his season average. But you know it was a it was a a low pass rate game for them. Um

140:19but he also had one target I'm seeing here. One target was good for 11% of targets.

140:27>> [laughter] >> Unbelievable, man.

140:30>> Yeah. So, they the >> I tried to write it up even >> target not not that impressive.

140:34>> Well, even when I redid this section for like Ibuka being out, I tried to was like I was like, "Oh, well, Ted Hurst

140:40played 100% of the drop backs." I'm like, they had 11 [ __ ] drop backs.

140:43Like, [laughter] >> yeah, dude. It's crazy.

140:46>> It's not real. Like, those aren't real.

140:48Like, I can't even lean on that.

140:50>> And you you you write up like with Baker Mayfield like, "Oh, let me see who else took a drop back." You know, no one. No,

140:56no [snorts] one else.

141:00>> Yeah, man.

141:00>> I also just worry that these guys aren't good enough though. And I'm I'm a Ted Hurst Bool with you, but like I'm wor at

141:05this point of his career like >> I don't want him operating as like an outside number one like drawing attention to AJ Terrell. Like it's I

141:12don't feel great about that.

141:14>> No, me neither. I mean, yeah, it would be nice if like anyone could play, you know, like if it was like rookie,

141:22you're telling me I have a rookie outside starter. Cool. Uh, can anyone else on the offense play? I'm not even sure he's that good. Like he's good

141:28enough to be a rookie like ex- receiver, which is like when I'm betting on a third round pick.

141:35>> Well, he was starting to lose that to be enough.

141:37>> Yeah. He was starting to lose reps to TZ Johnson, but now that they're they've been out at Buuka, they just been

141:43playing both guys.

141:44>> Right. Right. Tez might be the best of the of the bunch to be honest.

141:49>> He's I mean, he's leading in the metric stuff uh above these. I mean, Godwin, they're going to keep playing him. Like,

141:55he's lot like, you know what I mean?

141:56Like, but he doesn't look great either. He does have two touchdowns called back. He had another touchdown last week called back by penalty. So, it's a second of

142:05the season.

142:07>> Yeah. I'm thinking about the JK Dobbins press conference right now where they >> Yeah.

142:11>> they asked him like, "How you doing?"

142:13He's like, "I'm just >> just here to win. Like, whatever happens wins." And then like a guy following that up which is like you know I kind of

142:21mature response from from Dobbins. A guy goes but like JK you've normally been the like the lead guy. Like how do you

142:28just like feel like mentally like how does it feel for like that not to be the case? And he like looked over like why

142:34are you doing this to me? [laughter] >> Yeah.

142:39>> I'm I'm expecting that that press conference in five weeks with Godwin maybe. like it it has to happen. [laughter] It has to

142:48happen at some point. It's it's been bad, dude.

142:52>> It's been bad.

142:54>> But yeah, outside of Bucky though, not super not super excited about anyone outside of Bucky. I can see playing Godwin as like a

143:01>> hey, maybe that target share is real if we have more dropbacks and and during by-weeks and seeing what six at the wall

143:07as like a >> wide receiver, you know, three, four flex type thing. I just think when you see a team do what they did last week,

143:14like it just changes because because there's sort of part of these like what are they gonna do? Pass 10 times and

143:18then it's like, oh, [laughter] uh, if that's at all in the range, uh, no thanks, you know. So, yeah, for me

143:26it's Bucky. Bucky with, um, I mean, Bucky had 24 carries last week. Like if Gainwell's out uh and it opens up some

143:34more targets, then I mean his his rushing production is going to be his rushing workload's going to be pretty locked in. [snorts]

143:43>> Where where you at on the Bucks D?

143:45because we've been talking about them, you know, how teams kind of pray prepare for the Todd Bulls blitzes and you kind

143:52of know what what the deal is. But do teams know what the deal is because they're they're up to third in passing

143:58DVOA, second in EPA, eighth in drop back success rate. They're blitzing at the fifth highest rate. Their pressure rate isn't super high. They're only 30th in

144:08pressure rate, 26th in quick pressure, but uh they're they're playing a very aggressive style of defense and they're covering well. And that's then leading

144:16to um you know, both a good success rate and and big plays. So, uh an interesting defense and one that that could be tough

144:25for Michael Penn, who gets blitzed a lot. He has a 44% blitz rate against him this season. Um but an offense that

144:33doesn't really want to drop back very much. And this kind of with the Bucks, the Bucks are almost like we're going to

144:38make passing a real pain in your ass and then you're going to run the ball against an elite run defense and that's

144:44not going to work either. And I think the Falcons like could could take the bait on that potentially.

144:48>> I could totally see that happening. Uh yeah, they've they're interesting because they face the fastest time to throw in the NFL. So like it's hard to

144:55get quick pressures when there's not even you know they're all quick drop backs. Uh they face the sixth lowest area yards per pass attempt. They're

145:03doing a they're adopting a lot of the Brian Flores stuff right now. Um they've had eight or more players at the line of

145:12scrimmage on 21 22% of pass plays, second to only the Vikings, and they blitz on 40 40.4% of those plays, which

145:20is fifth. Um 21 different Tampa Bay players to add some concesses have a pass rush snap. Minnesota's at 18. Like they're doing a lot of similar stuff

145:29where they're like they're blitzing a bunch of random dudes. to bringing everyone to the line of scrimmage. And unlike the Vikings that we gave you that

145:37list, although we have a multi-year sample with the Vikings of being a good defense, but that list of quarterbacks I gave you for the Vikings, the Buccaneers

145:43have faced Joe Burrow. He was QB19. They faced Jordan Love. He was QB19. Dak Prescott, he was QB2. And then most

145:51recently, Bryce Young was QB28. They have faced some pretty good dudes >> as well and have been and been pretty good. So,

146:00I'm a little more hesitant here too that this is going to be like a game that it's a it could be a hell game kind of

146:05on both sides mostly before the Bucks because they're out of Bua and then uh for the Falcons because like one this is

146:13probably a good defense and it's two maybe coaxes you into run the football against a good run defense. Uh Bejian Robinson has no hundredyard game. Behan

146:23Robinson averages more receiving yards against the Buccaneers than rushing yards in his career. Uh wow. He's he's he's rushed for more than 63 rushing

146:32yards one time. And it's not that he can't just still have a game and get you know BJ Robinson can break a run off

146:37anybody for sure.

146:38>> But it's it is another one of these spots that we talked about with Gibbs like kind of has not been great in this

146:44matchup like he's got good receiving lines but the other thing goes back to it. So remember we talked about the Vikings are making running backs staying

146:51in block. Well, the Bucks have it used to be you could the Bucs blitz a lot, but you could kill them with running

146:56backs in the back field. Like Bejon last year had 82 and 100 yards receiving against them, but they're number two now

147:02in making running back staying in block because they're taking some of that same principles and bringing up the line of scrimmage and the running backs aren't

147:08getting out in pass routes now. Um, so >> he's had like a weird receiving role with Sansky anyways where it's been up

147:17and down, up and down. Like it hasn't been static.

147:21Yeah, that's true. Um, his target shares have bounced around a bit.

147:26>> Uh, any thoughts on Drake London?

147:29>> Love him. He looks really great in this matchup.

147:33>> Um, yeah. So, he's he's been very involved against the Blitz. I had as a note. 38% targets per out run, 3.83 yards per hour

147:44run. Um and yeah, I mean he's he's just dominating both targets and first read target 35% first read target share. Um

147:5523% first read target rate. So he's super super locked in as is the number one. And I think in this kind of

148:02situation unless like the opposing team is going to go really out of their way to like we're going to blitz you and

148:08then we're going to try to take away where we think you're going as well.

148:12that the Bucks aren't double teaming at all that high of a rate. So, I think you know kind of the hots, they're going to

148:18be to London and uh targets targets are already funneling his way. The funny thing about London's target rates and stuff is that if you use the seasonl

148:27long numbers, it kind of understates it because he's been so much better with PennX.

148:31>> Yeah.

148:31>> Um and so, you know, when you say like a he's got a 29% target share, >> that actually kind of understates where

148:38he's at, which is which is crazy. But um 3.03 yards per hour run for the season and he's been awesome with PennX. So I

148:47like him a lot as well.

148:48>> Yeah, he's wider since Penn took over.

148:50He's wide receiver three in target share, wide receiver two in air yards, wide receiver three in yards per out run. The the interesting dynamic here is

148:57unlike uh the Vikings, what the the Bucks do, the Vikings behind like all the all this like stuff that they show

149:04you up front play a lot of like quarters and two high stuff. The Bucks are the opposite. They play out like cover three

149:10and single high stuff. Um, and that's been more of why you see some of the bigger receivers have these good games

149:16against the Bucks, right? Because the quarterbacks want to throw to like these types of dudes like George Pickkins had a great game against the Bucks. Denzel

149:22Boston a great game against the Bucks.

149:24DK Metaf had 11 catches against them cuz like these are the guys that like one-on-one their quarterbacks like want to target against Single High and then

149:32against the Blitz. So like I could see London having a like a pretty gaudy target share in this game. uh you know

149:39they use like I said the Bucks are behind their blitzes they're 60% single high that uh is fourth in the league and

149:45then London's been London has five yards per out run against single high this year because >> nice >> I mean so I I could see especially if

149:53they don't get the run game going I think this could be a really kind of nutso Drake London game too cuz he

149:59already has double digit targets in four of the five games at Penn this could be a game where like he he actually has

150:05like maybe like something like like like 13 to targets or something like that'd be amazing.

150:09>> Wow.

150:10>> But but they have given that those are the guys that have gotten the Bucks defensively are like the big bodied

150:14receivers.

150:17>> Yeah, I like that. I like that take a lot. I was already kind of bullish on him and I I think I'm going to raise him

150:21on a spot. Um >> Yeah, you can't probably can't move him up very much higher. I can't I literally can move him up one spot. [laughter]

150:30>> But he I he's the he's like my favorite piece in the game and like I you're obviously playing Bejon and you know

150:35doing you know.

150:37>> Yeah.

150:38>> But but like a Drake London Bucky like mini is definitely in play here >> for sure.

150:43>> Yeah. That's that's interesting. Uh all right. Colts at Jags.

150:49I mean God the Colts dude. Josh D apparently gonna play even though he requested a trade. Jonathan Taylor

150:57apparently has not requested a trade. Um traded away Quinton Nelson who was a free agent after maybe requested a trade.

151:06>> Oh, really? I didn't see this.

151:07>> Oh, you haven't been following me?

151:09>> No.

151:09>> His wife's been doing the social media videos on the situation.

151:13>> Oh, man.

151:15>> It's so brutal, dude.

151:18This is the It's It's from this time last year that we were doing like the Colts were the wagon.

151:23>> They were the buyers. They This time they were the buyers. They're buying Sgard.

151:29>> It's crazy. Less less than a year from when they were shipping the future away for for a quarterback.

151:37>> I mean, Nelson was a free agent, right?

151:39So, >> you're getting a what' they get for him?

151:43Was it a third?

151:45>> Um I think it was a four. I can't remember. It was a four and a six or something. I think there was some kind

151:49of swap some kind of swaps in there. But yeah, he was a free agent. DS is a free agent, too. Like he's gone.

151:55>> Yeah. So, they're not I mean, they're not And they weren't coming back. So, it's like it it makes sense. Um it feels

152:01like probably more of a true tear down type of move than it really was. You're basically like, what if we could get a

152:07little something for this guy who's definitely not resigning with us? Um, the the only compelling part I think the only compelling part I think they would

152:16have with Taylor is >> if they could somehow trick someone into giving them a first because they got rid of their first. So that would be like

152:23recruit. He's like he's the because DS can't get you a first. He might be able to get you a a four. Uh he's he's out

152:29the door like everyone knows it. Um >> right.

152:34>> And then you got to pay. So >> maybe I think that they're trying to hold on to maybe a comp value like range

152:39for him.

152:41like what they would have got if he would have left for compensatory pick.

152:44Taylor's the only guy I think they have that they're probably willing to trade at this point that can net them something close back to like actual

152:51draft equity though uh that they already sold like a year ago.

152:56>> Yeah. Yeah. But I mean I don't >> And how do you do it? Like how do you get anyone to understand kind of the

153:03team?

153:06I mean, >> it's you need you need a team that's like feeling >> honestly you need a team that feels like

153:14the Colts felt last year where they're like you kind you would need like a Coltsesque like oh my god I can't

153:20believe we're in this position.

153:22um you know like like the Browns you'd almost need the Browns aren't going to do it and they have Judkins so they

153:30spend a second round pick but like you know what I mean like that kind like hey we're like no one thought we'd be

153:34leading the division should we trade away our first [laughter] to get Jonathan Taylor >> well that's what the Vik that's the

153:42Vikings right like the well you know who the team that you you know what team that is right the Vikings are a good

153:47>> No you know exactly what team that is right give us some thought for a second Uh, I actually don't know who.

153:56>> It's the New York Giants.

153:58>> Oh, no. Yeah, I should have I should have landed on the Giants. That is who it is.

154:04JJ McCarthy is going to get them to waste their first.

154:09Well, we definitely have quarterback >> Harbaugh and Roman licking their lips, bro. JT's available. [laughter] >> Oh, no.

154:18That'd be so brutal for for JT.

154:22>> Oh, can you imagine getting traded and then you end up in a JJ McCarthy offense like this? This is where you landed.

154:29>> Daniel Jones with JJ McCarthy. Oh, man.

154:34God, that's so funny, too, because you're like, you're going you you get away from Daniel Jones and you just go to where

154:42the stink started, you [laughter] know?

154:44You're like, "This is the the origin."

154:47>> Maybe the team though would fall for this though.

154:49>> They would be. Yeah. You got to get that Giants first, man.

154:54>> I'd take a second. I take >> I'd take a second. Easy. Give me the giant second.

155:00>> You ask for basically like the CMC trade, right? Wasn't it like two twos and like >> Yeah. Oh, man.

155:07>> Yeah. You do that all day if you're if you're the Colts.

155:10>> Um, >> let's talk about the actual.

155:11>> All right. So that'll that'll sum up our cults side of this game.

155:14>> Also the books like lower I I don't know like I don't someone asked me how what I how I was doing this for like

155:20subscribers. I don't know if you got this either. We're like well how are you treating the Colts guys this week if

155:25like they're like is there going to be like a workload reduction for these guys? Like the books the books hammered this stuff under like Jonathan Taylor's

155:33yards and like carries like got got just crushed down. I don't like I don't really like to me Taylor still feels

155:42like I could see him not getting traded.

155:44I don't think he's like a slam dunk to get traded.

155:47>> Like obviously [snorts] if they got like the the offer they wanted they probably would do it because again it's he's

155:52their only guy to recoup the equity that they lost, but I don't know how to price any of this stuff in.

155:59>> Do you think it's possible they trade Sus Gardner?

156:03>> Probably not. I would say probably not.

156:05>> It would be pretty funny though. It would be funny though. It would be funny >> like cuz that's honestly if you want to

156:11talk about how they recoup the value, it would be to trade sauce gardener again.

156:17I mean, he's the most direct way to recoup it.

156:21>> It's true.

156:22>> Yeah.

156:24The thesis of the play did not work out, you know. Maybe uh >> Yeah. Listen, we made a mistake.

156:29>> We're willing to admit the mistake.

156:31>> Yeah, >> we're willing to admit the mistake, but look what we got.

156:37You just trade him again.

156:42>> The NBA would do this [ __ ] The NFL >> the Yeah, the NBA would. The NBA would be like, "Oops."

156:47>> Yeah, my [laughter] bad.

156:52>> Oh, man. Uh, yeah. I don't know. I mean, I I have Taylor like as low as I've had him all year. I've got him at running

157:00back nine, but it's it's possible that's too high. Um, but I don't know. Like I that would mean like putting DeAndre Swift

157:10over him who's playing Seattle.

157:12>> I don't think I'm doing that.

157:15>> So, Right.

157:16>> Yeah.

157:17>> It's just very tricky cuz like there could totally be like if you flipped over the cards on Monday and you're

157:21like, "Oh, this dude got 12 carries."

157:22I'd been like, "Well, I guess we could have saw that coming." But then you're like, "If he didn't, he got 18 carries."

157:27You're like, "Oh, well, I guess you guys made too big a deal." No. It's just It's tough. It's tough to pinpoint. There's I

157:31don't think there's any way for us to know because we're not in the building.

157:36>> No. And the other problem is that the Jaguars have a really good rundy. Yeah.

157:41So it's not like it's not like it's a good matchup. Um so it >> does feel like one of those things where

157:46it's like well like the the baseline expectation would already be like that you'd lower Jonathan Taylor. Um and then you have this additional downside risk.

157:55So it is definitely a tricky spot. Josh DS. I mean, request the trade.

158:01They're like, "We're going to play you anyway."

158:05He's I mean, I'm pretty worried about him.

158:07>> We need you to play well, Josh. You have not played well enough, which is not his fault. Like, I don't think I don't

158:12believe so. I know there's like this huge thing with the community like, "Oh, you guys promised us Josh Downs against like if you look at like separation

158:18score like like he's doing >> it's just the quarterback is bad. The quarterback cannot throw that menu of of passes. The quarterback is bad. He is

158:28also seeing a 96th percentile double coverage rate.

158:31>> Yes, >> he's been double covered 55% of the time or more uh in three of his last five games.

158:40>> And I don't think that this was the Josh Downs thesis. No, the idea wasn't >> he's so good that even with a horrible

158:52version of D, maybe the worst version of Daniel Jones we've ever seen >> and no other weapons [laughter] and defensive game plans designed

159:00specifically to take him away, he'll he's going to crush, right?

159:04>> You know, like this is not this is not what we were expecting.

159:07um he was supposed to be able to kind of be a part of a of an offense that was able to move the ball with and without

159:16him. Uh and that's not what's happening.

159:19So, >> I don't know if you're the person that does the social clips, but that's the one you need to send like for real

159:25>> because I think there is no because there is such a thing like this. It's like, oh, like it's Lucy with the

159:31football, but like when you when you break it down like that, it's so clear why the guys succeeding.

159:36Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he's not The thing is, and I I mentioned this a few weeks ago, like the guys that that people tend

159:44to get the most pissed off at like, you know, the the the analysts about >> are the guys who aren't great.

159:52>> And we don't think they're great, but we think they're good. They're good, not great. And it's like, you're treating this player as a market. You're treating

159:58this player like he's not good, but he is good. and as long as the situation is pretty good and he's, you know, healthy

160:05and everything.

160:06>> Matthew is the other example.

160:07>> Matthew Golden. Matthew Golden. Yeah.

160:09Who I was kind of out because I wasn't sure he was good. And he is good, but he's not great, [laughter] you know,

160:16sort of like it's kind of like the problem is he's not great, but he's he's going to be productive because he's

160:23good. I think, you know, Jaylen Coker, if you're And I wasn't in on Coker, which was a mistake because he is good.

160:29He's good. He's I don't think great, but he's good.

160:32>> And he's in a situation where being good is is good enough.

160:35>> Some of these situations go against you.

160:38And you know, I think if you're gonna say, "Hey, Josh Downs wasn't a great pick." He wasn't super cheap. It's not

160:43like we were taking him in the 13th round and just getting to bank on him being good. But I had a high degree of confidence that

160:49he's good. I still think he's good. It's just like he's he would ha he would have to be truly great to overcome the situ.

160:56I'm not sure that Garrett Wilson would be doing well in this situation, right?

161:00We've seen Garrett Wilson struggle in similar situations.

161:05>> So, yeah, it's a tough spot for him.

161:07>> Yeah. Yeah.

161:07>> And I I'm I am worried about like of of the guys that you know the trade stuff like what does it mean?

161:15I I think I'm most worried about about down.

161:18>> Yeah. Because if this dude tweaks his hamstring like they're they're [ __ ] Well, if I think if he if he turns his

161:25ankle, I think he might be like, you know, I'm I'm I'm good. Right. Like not to but like if you want to play

161:33somewhere else, like you don't want to suffer ankle sprain where you're out for four weeks, you know what I mean? Like

161:39>> Right.

161:40>> Uh >> yeah. Yeah.

161:41>> It just adds some some downside to the whole thing.

161:44>> Yeah. The whole thing whole thing downside.

161:46>> He's going to get start some targets. He is. Sure is.

161:51>> Keenan Allen [laughter] is going to carry an NFL offense in 2026.

161:56This is This is brutal, dude.

161:58>> Right off the heels of us talking about Chris Godwin. Right off the heels of us talking about Chris Godwin carrying a

162:02passing game.

162:04>> I have more faith in Keenan.

162:06>> I do as well. Well, he's actually been okay.

162:08>> He's been okay. Yeah, he's honestly been way better than Chris Godwin.

162:16Like the the craziest like absolute breakdowns of a of a team,

162:26right, with just the wheels falling off.

162:30The two craziest ones I can remember are the Jeff Saturday hire and the Philip Rivers comeback >> here. [laughter]

162:42>> And I'm not sure where this one's heading, but it's not going to be good.

162:47like [laughter] how the the three kind of craziest drop offs they're they're all going to be the Colts in like the last [laughter] five

162:57years. These are all recent by the way.

162:59>> Yes, >> that was 2022.

163:02>> Yeah.

163:02>> Right. Or Yeah, I think 2022 that we got the Saturday hire >> and then just last year. Absolutely.

163:08>> This is This is in the last four years.

163:11This three times in four years.

163:13>> God bless them. They're keeping us entertained.

163:17>> [laughter] >> Yeah, they they understand that at its core, football is is everything.

163:28>> They actually they're like the one team that wishes the NFL was just rigged and this was all >> WWE. [laughter]

163:36>> Yeah, because the fact that this is this is happening in real life, it's so brutal. [laughter] Uh, anything on on Tyler Warren today?

163:46It looked like >> It looked like he's playing. It looked like he's They said expected. He was expected to play.

163:52>> Okay. I wrote it up kind of like it could go either way, but I was I was thinking maybe he was out. Um, I have

163:58him as a tight end one.

164:01You're not going to get traded.

164:02>> Not He's not getting traded.

164:04>> Yeah. So, [snorts] uh, all right. Let's move to the Jaguars who probably are going to be able to run the ball a bunch.

164:13>> Colts are a terrible run defense. 29th in rushing DBOA, 27th in EPA, 25th in success rate. Um, I'll throw this to you

164:22because I I need to um uh you know, I I I'm not I am not objective on on the Bashel Tutin uh stuff. So, I'll I'll

164:32throw this one to you. No, this is a this is a super great spot right out of the buy.

164:37>> Yeah, >> recuse myself is what I was blanking on.

164:40>> No, Deorest Buckner. Deorest Buckner was traded right before this. The the Colts had all all the bad metrics with DeForest Buckner.

164:48>> He's gone now. Uh yeah. Uh 30th in yards per touch allowed to running backs. 27th yards per rush. Uh 25th in yards per

164:56scrimmage allowed per game to running backs with DeForest Buckner. Um, if there was like really any tear down for Tootton, it's just like the offensive

165:04line's still bad. Anton Harrison's out for the season now. But I still think that they're gonna run be able to run

165:10the ball here enough and he can create explosives and they're at home. He's a double- digit home favorite. Like everything is here. Like this is the

165:18week, dude. Like this everything is on the table for this to be the spot, the takeover. As long as we don't get any

165:25goofy Chris Rodriguez [ __ ] Like this is it. This is it, man. It's all there. It's all set up.

165:31>> Knock the pin down. [laughter] Knock the pin down.

165:34>> Can you bring your shoulder over a little bit?

165:36>> As long as we don't get any goofy Chris Rodriguez stuff.

165:42>> Yeah. Yeah.

165:44>> Yeah. Meme me up, baby.

165:46>> Get Get Chris Rodriguez in the Wildat.

165:50There's no other way to score a touchdown than to false start from the Wildcat.

165:54>> Dude looks truly amazing. I mean, all of his because he's been in this environment that's definitely like isn't good. Like, he's 34th in yards uh

166:03created or yards before contact for him out of out of 39 running backs, 50 more carries, but he is seventh in yards

166:09after contact per rush. He has a run uh of 10 or more yards on 12% of his runs.

166:16Despite that, >> it's 11th out of that same group. Like, the dude is legitimately good. They got him some stuff in the pass game last

166:23week. Not last week, the London game before the buy. I mean, it's it's all here, though. It's all like this is the

166:30spot. Like, this is the nut spot.

166:31There's supposed to be some rain in this game. Like, this is it, man. I really, really, really hope

166:39you're right. [laughter] This is like I remember uh yeah, like I was super in on Bree Hall the year he was

166:48coming back off the torn ACL. and some of these guys where you're like the it finally happens like the the setup

166:55happens and but like until Drake May you know would have these you know some spots you're like okay like this is it

167:02like where you you're finally going to get him like not just have a good game but actually like >> level up into like a new you know like

167:11we're now ranking this guy weekly in a different way and >> oh I'm straight up looking for like a buck 30 and two here bro like I

167:20Man, [laughter] this it makes you nervous. Like there is there a certain certain level of like investment where you're just like all right like I hope

167:31you're right.

167:31>> I [laughter] wasn't even the I wasn't even a basial bull either. I'm just I'm looking at this more objectively than

167:36you and I'm like like I said there is like some there's like some fringe elements. The offensive line's not good still and Chris Rodriguez still is

167:44legitimately not going away, but like man, he's been so good. I said, huge home favorite. The defensive matchup is great.

167:51>> Duel is also out of the I actually do think I am somewhat somewhat objective again on on Tuton because I'm now

167:56nervous enough about like the spot is now so good that I'm like, well, you know, Chris Rodriguez has gotten usage.

168:04But yeah, Mirdula getting getting uh phased back out. He hasn't seen a carry since week three. Quinn Allen has had one carry all season. So I I think the

168:13weirdness around the Jags backfield is sometimes about snaps and routes rather than carries where you do have you do

168:23have Chris Rodriguez still involved and involved in a way that makes you nervous against Houston because Toutton was down to 44% of carries after 81% against the

168:34Eagles. I think though he'll probably be at like 55ish, maybe 60ish, something like that in terms of carry share. Um, and that'll be fine in this matchup

168:45because, you know, it could be kind of like Bucky last week where I think he was in the 50s in terms of carry share,

168:51>> but doesn't matter because they're going to be running the ball so much. And you do have to have a lot of faith in the

168:57Colts just not being able to do the Jazz D is good.

169:01>> Yeah.

169:01>> And like this is talk about a demoralized team. I mean, I guess they could be like a rally around Shane mode,

169:08but that was more last week, I would think, than this week. So, >> yeah. Um, this is also a pretty good spot for the

169:17Jaguars passing game, though. The J the Colts pass defense has not been very good. They don't have a good pass rush.

169:24Um, Parker Washington, I think, set up pretty well here. Um, you know, he's been very efficient. 2.39 yards per out run. just bet those first half overs

169:33with these guys.

169:34>> First half overs. Yeah. What what are your thoughts on where Brian Thomas stands? Because the quote from that I saw in Coach Speak Index. Um he said uh

169:44to the media that we're going to quote continue to support him, meaning Thomas, and put our arm around him and continue

169:49to do what we got to do to make plays on Sunday. Um >> so >> yeah, I like that mean >> I think it means we benched him.

170:00We're probably gonna have to play him again and we would like to not have to bench him again. That's what I That's

170:06what I took from it. I don't think he's gonna be phased out. And it's it's strange. Why isn't he Why aren't we hearing more

170:15about him getting traded? I' I've been surprised it got kind of immediately quiet.

170:20>> Yeah, it is interesting. I don't know.

170:23Um, but this is a spot too where we expect them to run the ball well and he hasn't been part of their plan when they

170:29are running the ball. Like that's where they've been playing Josh Cameron.

170:33>> Yeah.

170:33>> So that's true.

170:34>> Is it So is it >> Cameron's a blocker?

170:37>> Can we double dip if that's the case? Uh I tend to just be very bearish on the situation with him right now because

170:44we're also seeing Travis Hunter get >> he's just a pure blocker at this point.

170:48Like I don't care at all about Thomas Jags.

170:51>> He's just blocking other guys. Yeah. And we also seen Travis Hunter start to get some schemed usage now recently, especially in the red zone. He's got two

170:58red zones.

170:59>> What did he play? I didn't notice.

171:00>> Yeah. Yeah. [laughter] >> 59 yards and a touchdown, baby.

171:07>> Yeah.

171:07>> Oh, Javvis Hunter. He looks good, man.

171:10>> He looks pretty good.

171:12>> He looks great on defense, too.

171:14>> Come on.

171:15>> I'm sorry. [laughter] He looks good.

171:18>> He looks No, he doesn't. He looks great.

171:20He caught >> you. He looks He looks like a really good football player.

171:24>> He looks like a good football player.

171:26>> And he is playing two ways now again for the second straight week. Uh he had in week five, he had 100% of defensive

171:34snaps and then um a 9% rout participation. In week six, he was at 98% of defensive snaps, 16% participation. I think we're going to

171:43get him, you know, we'll see. We'll see how high he goes.

171:48But I don't think 16's going to be our peak. Uh I'll say that. And uh they're looking >> all right for him when he's out there

171:56for sure.

171:58>> Yeah. This is this is a great spot. This is all a smoke him if you got them Jags game, but you just have to worry about

172:04them the push right like this because we've seen the story with them already this year. Like Trevor Lawrence number one in the NFL in passing points per

172:10drop back. Uh he's tw 23rd in fourth quarter fantasy points. You know, they just haven't had to throw. He's he's last in the NFL in fourth quarter drop

172:18back six per game because >> they just they've had a few of these spots where they just cook and I expect

172:24them to cook this weekend. Uh so that's why I said just get the first half overs in hammer them.

172:31>> Great spots for all these guys though.

172:32You >> Yeah.

172:34>> Couple notes um on play action here because I think we are going to see them kind of getting the downhill

172:40>> run game going play action play action off of that. Um, Jags are the fourth most efficient play action team, running

172:47at the 13th highest rate. Colts are seeing the the third highest play action rate against them, and they're 26th in efficiency against play action. So, this

172:57is a nice spot for the Colts. Um, on play action, Jacobe Myers has actually been the Jaguars lead wide receiver. He

173:05has 24% targets per out run, 3.61 yards per out run. Parker Washington is at 18% and 2.05. So, kind of an interesting

173:14Meyers note. He I think could have a pretty good game here or at least makes kind of the the Washington stuff a

173:20little more fragile because we're potentially looking at lower pass volume. I would say, you know, pretty likely looking at lower pass volume. And

173:28this is a note on Bashalt Tutin as well because he has a 28% targets per out run on play action with 1.96 yards per out

173:36run.

173:36>> Makes sense.

173:37>> It makes sense. He's a good receiver and he's also a good enough runner to be out. He's the lead running back, right?

173:42So, you know, it's the fake run works when two on the field. They expect you to run the ball. And so, I think this is

173:50going to be, you know, a a potentially, you know, a match up where he is putting up points through the air as well is on

173:57the ground, which could help make up for losing some carries to Chris Rodriguez, which which will happen. But Rodriguez has a 1% target share. Uh he's he

174:08literally wasn't showing up and I was having to manually add him to stuff because he hadn't been targeted. So when he finally got targeted I was like thank

174:13you happened in like week five I think.

174:15>> Um but yeah he's not at all involved and Laquent Allen has a very specialized role. He doesn't get any carries. So the

174:23Jags like leading and then play actioning as as you know the higher the play action rate um the better it is for

174:30Tuton. So I think that that also makes his matchup better.

174:35Uh, all right. Chargers at Rams.

174:40Chargers. I mean, how do we I This is my bad for for putting the Chargers and Colts back to back, but I mean, another

174:48>> brutal brutal situation. Um, we have Justin Herbert and EPA per play. His percentiles have been 28th, 27th, 29th,

174:5621st, 15th, and 16th. Uh, the Chargers are just trying to hide him as much as they can. -4% pass rate on first - 14%

175:07proe on first and 10 - 9% pass rate over expected overall they've gotten really really conservative in certain games including

175:18recent games they a minus 32% pro on first and 10 against the Broncos minus 14% against the Chiefs Herbert is one of

175:26the interesting things about Herbert is he's holding the ball for almost three seconds uh his average time to throw is 2.96 six. His [snorts]

175:35first read attempt rate is quite low at 47%. So, he's he's not trusting the first read and moving off of it and

175:42holding the ball.

175:44However, he is uh the least efficient quarterback in the league in EPA per first read drop back. So, like when he does kind of

175:55execute the primary design of the play, it goes horribly.

176:00when he tries to make plays outside of structure, he's quarterback 18 on non-first read drop backs. So, it's kind of this situation where

176:12Herbert's not fitting the offense, but the offense sucks.

176:15>> Yeah.

176:16>> So, like, is that Herbert's fault? Like, maybe to an extent, but McDaniel is like it's not just like the match isn't

176:23working, it's that like the plan that I think he's being asked to operate is or is not good. Um that could change I

176:31guess if Lad Makanki is healthy again.

176:33He's somehow at 2.13 yards per hour run this year. So Maki coming back could be good. But they're getting a Rams defense

176:39that's been pretty good. You know, even without Miles Garrett McDuffy's going to be back for this matchup. They're their corners are awesome. So

176:49>> this is a pretty pretty rough setup, but Manki being back should help. That was basically it says like if you're holding

176:54on any hope you're just like basically saying like all right they had a whole week off to maybe just try to like throw

176:59like one last dire straits uh to see like can we fix anything they are getting potentially Manki Joe Walt and um Coyote Aika back uh on the offensive

177:11line. So maybe there's just that's all though like it's it's it's allopium [ __ ] though like it's all I've got for you

177:17like it's all I have right like I don't know what else to say. Uh they have played a little bit better in lads

177:24on >> honestly I've said it's hard to be this bad for this long.

177:27>> Yeah, >> that was my that was literally the best I could come up with. It's hard to be this bad this consistently.

177:33>> Yep. I mean you're saying like all right, we're getting a little healthier and maybe like if if there's any card

177:39for like this coaching staff to pull out like this is the time to pull it out.

177:42Like I don't but how could you have any faith in it? You said it's not even a good matchup. Um >> I I disagree with that. I think this is

177:52the um pulling out a card now is like telling Lloyd you have an extra pair of gloves or just telling you an extra pair of

178:02gloves as Lloyd.

178:03>> Abs, you're right.

178:04>> Like the time has long passed.

178:06>> It is long past. You're 100% correct.

178:08>> Like you've had this card the whole time. [laughter] Yeah, >> you're you're right. You're 100%.

178:15>> You should have played it by now.

178:17But I just I It's all hope.

178:22>> Yeah, dude.

178:23>> Go. It's just Yeah. Talk about the Rams.

178:28>> Well, I was going to I was going to know that on top of >> I mean, I think Makanki can consolidate

178:33targets um to an extent and so for like seasonl long stuff, you know, you can you can kind of like I have a high

178:40stakes league where I probably end up playing Maki, but I'm deciding between like him and Shakir.

178:45>> Like it's like that level. I would play Manki still.

178:49>> I think the value play. But >> yeah, I think the V I think you play he literally just been like his his start

178:55has just been like more night as nightmarish as the top down situation.

178:59Like he's had a rib injury, he's had a foot injury, he had a concussion the last time he came out. Yeah,

179:04>> he's got he's he has one game where he's played 50% of the snaps. Like the metrics underneath look good still.

179:10>> They do.

179:11>> Um >> they do. The problem with him though as we talked about like he's he's a tough guy when you give him like this big

179:17workload is like he's like the body type though is like he can he withstand it and right >> that's always the that's always the rub.

179:25>> Um but the Rams have been a run funnel.

179:28They've been good against the run and so teams are more avoiding the pass which is you know one of these tricky spots.

179:35This is not an ideal setup at all. Um and so then you look at the Chargers backfield. still split three ways. It

179:43seems like honestly it seems like they should play Kamani Videll, but they're not going to. So the Marin Hampton's going to be kind of this in this like

179:52not particularly valuable role and he's been awful.

179:56So I mean there's not really even in season long I I've got Hampton as an RB4.

180:01>> Yep. He's just touched on our bus. He's playing all the goal line stuff. These dudes are all in terrible roles.

180:07>> Terrible roles. Yeah. And Mitchell Mitchell got had a 0% target share.

180:11before the buy. So, it's kind of I think >> sort of over. But then again, maybe not.

180:16Maybe he'll We're going to chase this around in circles. Awful.

180:21>> It's just bad, though. I would say you guys are everyone's just better off not having Chargers, >> right? Uh Rams [clears throat]

180:29are facing a Chargers. I mean, this I've I've compared the the Chargers to the Titans uh in the past and it's starting

180:37to be rude to the Titans. [laughter] Um who I mean pretty much every metric the Titans are better like Herbert's

180:47Herbert looks worse than Cam Ward and and all the efficiency stuff. So, but yeah, the Chargers are big runfunnel and they are, you know, more vulnerable on

180:58the ground than they are through the air. So that's actually in it in a way they're they're different than the Titans where they're they're similar to

181:04the Titans in that teams are running on them because they don't respect the offense, but also it is easier to move

181:09the ball on the ground than it is through the air against the Chargers who have shaped up into like a decent pass

181:15defense. You've noted for weeks that, you know, when the chips are down, the Rams lean on Kairen Williams, but when they don't have to, you know, kind of

181:23have him out there, they don't always >> put him out there and they lean on Blake Cororm a little bit to help salt away

181:28games.

181:30>> Blake Cororm is kind of interesting this week. Like he's going to get he's going to get run and he's he has run pretty

181:36well. So, he's been very consistent, which is kind of what you want in this sort of setup. like if we're going to

181:41use you as as a guy to just pound the rock and kind of help extend drives and, you know, score a touchdown in a long

181:49drive in the in the third quarter to extend the lead. That's kind of who he looks like. So, >> what are your thoughts on on this

181:55backfield and and kind of who who are guys you would play Blake Corum over? Uh >> yeah, a good amount of them. Well, just

182:03in general, this is a top down team thing right now because of all the injuries they've [snorts] had. Uh we saw

182:07them go with their lowest drop back rate of the season last week. Stafford has his three lowest depth of throws uh the

182:15last three weeks. Uh he's thrown the ball 10 or more yards downfield just 23% and 20% the past two weeks. Um he has

182:23behind targets behind the line of scrimmage rates of 21% 23% 24% the last three weeks. Weeks one through four that was a 10% rate. They've thrown obviously

182:32because they don't have Dvonte Adams they've thrown fewer passes to wide receivers. So that just like kind of brings all that down. Uh Stafford's

182:39completion rate has gone way up now because of that because he's throwing, you know, he's throwing a lot more shorter passes. So like it's so he he's

182:47throwing lower depth of target, but it's given him like more efficient. He's had a high touchdown rate still too. Rams in

182:52their first game without Dvonte Adams did exactly what we thought. They had a 35% rate of 11 personnel last week. Uh

183:00that was a season though highest rate of 13 personnel. and they're the the setup here is for them to do all this again

183:05because the Chargers play man coverage at the 29th highest rate. Uh they face the lowest area yards per target in the

183:11NFL. So like you're just going to run and throw a bunch of short passes against these guys which is was the game

183:16plan last week. So we're going to see basically the same exact thing I think we see where it's just a ton of Kairen

183:22Williams. It's a ton of Blake Cororm.

183:24Those two guys were alternating drives last week. The Chargers face 25 back field runs per game. That's 29th the NFL. And now that they've any good run

183:33game they faced has just absolutely crushed them cuz like they faced the Cardinals, the Raiders, the Seahawks, the Broncos, but against higherend

183:41competition like and they're good backs, James Cook and Kenneth Walker, but the Rams collectively are third in yards per rush and they lead the NFL in success

183:49rate. Uh, you know, and the only two teams ahead of them in yards rush are the Bills and Chiefs. So like,

183:56>> you know, so like it sets up for them to just feed these two backs, run this.

184:00They both had over 100 yards last week at total yards. Uh and Corm had two touchdowns come off the board. Um but to

184:07answer your question, I have him as an RB2. I mean, I I'm playing him over a bunch of guys this week. Uh

184:14um I'm trying to think like just like some names. I have him say, you know, Saquon Barkley. Uh you know, >> Yep. Well, I mean Saquon's like play,

184:25but >> he's got injury stuff baked in. Ali Gordon, I would play him over Ali Gordon. Wow.

184:30>> Yeah. Uh we're going to get to Alli Gordon in a minute here. Um you who else do I have down here? Uh I have I have

184:37him over Judkins.

184:39>> That's Yep. I've got Judkins right behind Gordon.

184:41>> So like all those guys. Mason with Aaron Jones playing. I have him over there.

184:45Rashad White who maybe someone wants to play uh that we won't talk about, but like I have him like just in that

184:51backend RB2 range. And it might be when the cards get flipped, he could outscore some of these other guys that I just

184:56rank higher because of protracted workload. But like if you told me Blake Corm outscored DeAndre Swift against Seattle, I wouldn't blink.

185:03>> I It's a it's a tougher play because you know the volume the volume is just more projectable for Swift. So I'm not going

185:08to rank him higher. But like if we flipped over the cards and be like and you were like, "Yeah, DeAndre Swift had

185:1355 total yards against the Seahawks."

185:15I'd be like, "Yeah, okay." You know, sure. That's what happens. So there's up. I think there's higher upside, too. It's just that Cororm

185:23himself inherently has more fragility than Williams just in case something stupid happens because if something stupid happens in the game which which

185:31we don't project to happen but it it's it's nonzero >> uh he he doesn't have the insulation of Kairen Williams.

185:39>> Totally. Yeah. And it was interesting looking at the expected points from last week uh where you know Kairen Williams has had some huge workloads this this

185:49year. 32.3 expected points against the Eagles in week four, 26.8 in week five against the Bills. Um, obviously that was, you know, that's a game they lost,

185:58but was very back and forth and fell to 12.1 last week against the Raiders, which was below Blake Corm, who had 13.3

186:06expected points. Kairen was very efficient, scored 20 PPR points. Corm was also efficient, scored 17. But um you know you you have you have

186:17definitely hammered this all season like in these types of games this is actually where we see a shift to quorum and

186:25I'm with you. I'm not probably quite as bullish on Cororum but I I have him like you know maybe fewer down.

186:31>> Yeah.

186:31>> Yeah.

186:32>> But um but yeah I am I'm definitely >> I think if you have Corm though you're probably playing him unless you have

186:39some of you know guys.

186:40>> That's what I said. Like >> I said if Corin if Corm is a guy you sometimes start I would probably make

186:45this one of those weeks.

186:46>> Yes. Correct. [laughter] >> Yeah. Um but yeah I mean the only other thing with this matchup I guess would be

186:54just to talk about I think is Kobe Parkinson going to be out? He was he was uh ailing.

186:59>> I didn't see he was like dude he kept he was getting the [ __ ] beat out of him in

187:01that game last week like he was coming off the field like every other play.

187:05But, uh, >> if he misses, then it would kind of consolidate things to Higgby and Davis Allen. And this is one of those matchups

187:11where you could, you know, see the Rams doing some tight end stuff. They're going to be they're gonna be running the

187:15ball. They're being, you know, makes sense for them to be in a lot of heavy personnel for that. So, uh, >> yeah, I meant to check because when, uh,

187:24we were going on some of the late guys, we were waiting on uh, you know, Jaylen Wadd, uh, those types of things. I was

187:31waiting for like practice reports.

187:33>> Waddle's questionable. Well, I mean, we're we're going to get to that game.

187:35So, let's finish up on Rams. We'll get to that. We'll do that one.

187:38>> Well, I don't have anything else on Rams if you want to move to >> Yeah. Okay.

187:41>> The Broncos.

187:42>> Yeah. Play Pukakua.

187:44>> Okay. Play Pukanakua for sure >> because RJ Harvey out too. I saw that.

187:52>> Oh, I didn't see that. That's That's big.

187:54>> He got hurt in practice.

187:55>> That's big for Coleman.

187:57>> Yeah, he got hurt in practice. So, >> Waddle was limited. limited questionable >> to close the week.

188:08>> I mean, he's going to play >> he's also going to be in the blue tent.

188:15>> Definitely blue tending >> adjusted >> and he's been bad. Um, he's been bad and it's bad.

188:22>> It It's tough to go back to Bon Knicks like from a fantasy perspective. This is so this is why I never like go on

188:28Twitter and like say and like say stuff because us there's a lot of times in this industry where we're right for the

188:34wrong reasons and Bo Nicks was one of those last week.

188:37>> Like if you stream Bo Knicks, you play him in DFS, he got 26 fantasy points.

188:42This dude had a 62 yard touchdown run where I like just no one came like there's just no one came on the screen

188:48like just ran it in and then he had a 52 yard screen pass touchdown. Uh he completed 51% of his passes. [snorts]

188:57Like he was one of eight on throws of 20 or more yards. They tried bust their hearts to throw down field.

189:02He was four of 12 on throws 10 yards of further downfield. One of eight on 20.

189:05Like you got the fantasy points, you got them for the wrong reasons. This is why I like say you don't victory lap

189:10anything in these streets because usually we're right for the wrong reasons. And Bonick's one of those was last.

189:18>> You take you don't apologize. You don't apologize for your fantasy play.

189:22>> You don't apologize. Yeah, you don't apologize.

189:24>> You just understand what happened though. So, I don't think you were like in general what I'm saying is I'm not

189:29bullish on the Broncos here.

189:32>> Well, the the Chiefs defense is kind of interesting because they have been really good sometimes.

189:39>> Yeah.

189:39>> You know, against the quarterbacks who've been struggling this year, they've been really good. Malik Willis, they shut down Justin Herbert, but Sam

189:45Darnold, Kirk Cousins, who's had a good season overall. And then Daniel Jones has had his his only good game was was

189:52against this defense.

189:54>> So this this defense has been very boom bust actually. Now Bo Knicks has played this defense. He's been the worst

190:00quarterback all season against them. He was fourth percentile in EPA per play in that game, 21st percentile in success rate for the season. He's now quarterback 31

190:10in EPA per game, quarterback 36 in success rate. Success rate is the thing that really jumped out last week and kind of goes to a lot of the metrics

190:16you're saying. like he had the big plays in somewhat flaky ways, but like down to down he's still pretty brutal.

190:23>> Um that's been the story for him all season. Um and so, you know, we want to bet on him as well.

190:31>> And we don't think Wadd's healthy.

190:33>> We don't think Wadd's Wadd's healthy. I would say the main silver >> and Harvey Harvey being out is actually important because he's like their best

190:39pass catcher.

190:43>> Jonah Coleman looks kind of good as a pass catcher, too. He's a 2.4 43 yards per round.

190:47>> But Harvey's like legitimately actually is he's like he's looked really great.

190:51>> He's like in >> for the Yes. For the role he's in. Yeah.

190:55>> Yeah.

190:55>> He's he's actually looked really good.

190:58>> He has looked good. Um it does hurt to lose him. I'm not I'm not trying to say it doesn't, but it it is interesting.

191:03Like is Coleman where where you have where are you going to have Coleman? I didn't realize Harvey was out, but like Coleman

191:09has >> This was during the show, so I haven't like calibrated either >> because >> I mean, this could suddenly be pretty

191:16good.

191:17>> It could be cuz Well, last week it was very I it actually came out kind of gross even though I know a lot of the

191:22Coleman Bulls were like really happy with the top down performance, but like he was just the closer last week really like uh it was weird to like it got

191:30muddy early. They all got to touch the first drive of the game which was cool.

191:34I was like, "Oh great, Shawn Payeyton."

191:37And then they just but then they used Coleman as the closer in in uh he he he played seven of the 11 backfield touches

191:44in the second half. Played 74% of the snaps in the second half but also came out at the goal line for JK Dobbins. And

191:50it wasn't and he and then RJ Harvey still has like this monopoly on the receiving work. So it was like oh like

191:56this is kind of like not as great as maybe people are going to make this out but like you should still be bullish

192:00that he played well. So it's like kind of a weird thing for fantasy football.

192:04Um, but now that Harvey's out, I would assume that he's going to get a lot of the receiving stuff, >> right?

192:11>> Because Dobbins really was never that dude. So, I would assume he gets a lot of the receiving stuff that now that I

192:18don't still know if he gets any goal line stuff is the problem, >> right?

192:22>> I think he would get some. I mean, Dobins has been awful this year.

192:25Coleman's a big dude.

192:27>> Yeah, but it but Dobbins is like he converted like the last two games. Like, they've given him goal carries and

192:32converts. I don't know. I don't know.

192:33It's like it's still it still feels kind of nebulous. I still think big picture he's the guy you want though. I just

192:40think maybe we're going to get too crazy. But maybe now with Harvey out it is the full runway cuz Harvey has had like significant

192:48highv value touches.

192:50>> Yeah. Yeah.

192:53>> And Coleman coming out looked like he could catch the ball like he was not >> Oh, he does he does everything well. The

193:00thing is he does not >> he's kind of scatabooy in that in that way. He's not gonna be a big breakaway

193:05runner, but he can kind of do everything else.

193:06>> Exactly. He's he's a guy coaches love because he doesn't necessarily have like like if you think like from an attribute

193:12stance like he has like nothing in the 90s, but like a like everything's like 75 to 85 like you know like he just does

193:20everything like pretty damn good and that collectively coaches love.

193:28>> Yeah. Yeah. And he Yeah. Yeah, he's a pretty consistent runner. He's reliable.

193:31Coaches love that stuff. Um, any other thoughts on on this passing game? I mean, I I compared, it's funny, um, because I didn't think I

193:41would be out again, but I was comparing Wadd to Ibuka >> and just like, hey, look at the some of these numbers, you know, like pretty

193:48good target share, good targets per out run. Um, the clearly like the first read stuff's there. They clearly want this guy to be the guy, but it's just like

193:57not really happening. And I think in Wadd's case, I'm a little bit more worried about the player than I am with Ibuka. Ibuka is more the situation,

194:06but also he's not breaking out like people are hoping, but you know, he's still solid enough. Clearly way better than his teammates. And Wadd, as

194:15disappointing he's been, does look way better than his teammates as well. I mean, Sutton's at 0.84 yards per hour, and he's 16th percentile in open score.

194:22Wadd hasn't been great, but he's 51st percentile there. So, you're uh you're look at a a pretty big downgrade to the offense if Waddles out.

194:33Like, you do not >> I mean, I'm not saying is going to drop back 12 times, but >> Yeah.

194:38>> You know.

194:38>> Yeah.

194:40>> Well, I think that's what that's what they'd love to do here, right? Like, they would love to just slow this game

194:44down and have it be a fist fight. And I think they can because the Well, they they have to stop the run, but you know,

194:51>> they lose that fist fight. I think >> they probably do, but that's their only way though. Like they're the thing is

194:58the offense is bad. Like their passing game is bad, >> right?

195:02>> There's no way around it. Like it's just it's bad. I don't even know. Like it's >> if it's a scheme thing, if it's a Bo

195:08Knicks thing, it's just it's it's just bad. Like you face the Arizona Cardinals and you did you understood the assignment. You tried and you still

195:16failed. [sighs] Like [laughter] >> Yeah. And and Payton does understand the assignment. They were aggressive. They passed more than expected by a good by

195:25>> it was the spot. It was all there. Like he he knew like let's get our guy going.

195:29Let's do the thing. And it didn't go well.

195:32>> No. Yeah. It's been really disappointing this year.

195:36>> And the other guys you can't have faith in like Sutton has been a declining player for multiple years.

195:42>> He he already did I don't know if you saw you'd appreciate this. He got so he Shawn Payeyton did uh his thing where

195:48he's like, "Oh, I need to give Marvin Mims the ball more." And the the follow-up was like, "You say that a lot,

195:53Sean."

195:54>> By the way, he said the guy goes, "Uh, you say that a lot, Sean." He just goes, "I know." [laughter]

196:01So, he was like annoyed. He immediately got called out. He was like, "You could just tell those guys have like a long

196:06relationship." He's like, >> but I mean like Troy Franklin, this is the whole reason they didn't they they they made the waddle trade is they

196:14didn't want to play Troy Franklin. Like you know Pat Bryant's still out. Like I don't I don't like the rest of these

196:19guys aren't good players. Like these aren't the guys that are going to resurrect the system is what is basically what I'm saying. And not

196:24against Steve Spagnolo. I don't like yeah I guess the Chiefs could like you know be be more hit or miss but

196:30>> I don't know if this is the unit to make us go back like but >> I I would say >> playing some Jonah

196:38>> Coleman I would say if you you play some Jonah Coleman that's completely palatable.

196:45>> Uh Rashi Rice is going to return for this game.

196:48>> Um so the explosiveness is back in Kansas City. That's [laughter] that's what people are saying. No. Uh, you know, but as far as a chain moving

196:59>> slot wide receiver, it is helpful to have >> Rice back. What What are your thoughts on how this offense looks with, you

197:06know, because we haven't seen since Taekwon Thornton got hurt, Rice hasn't been back. Um, do you think like Xavier Worthy is going to be more of a field

197:14stretcher now? Uh, how do you think they kind of configure this? Yeah, I mean Xavier Worthy is not good. And uh I

197:24think Josh Norris had a tweet >> that that showed just like how like he he has like no targets like almost in

197:31his career. They're almost either all first read targets and like they're all first or second down. Like he gets nothing that like where he's like

197:37getting himself open uh or like getting stuff like where the progression finds him. It's just very few and far between like those examples. Uh, so I imagine

197:46he's going to be more of Yeah, like that field stretcher type of guy. Uh, but the problem is he's not good in that role

197:53either. So this is an offense I still think big picture that in that role like I think >> well you just have to start thinking

198:02about him.

198:05Yeah, but I mean like can't you get something out of him by just having him be? Because Taekquin Thornton wasn't good in that role from

198:15the perspective of we're going to play Taekwon Thornton in fantasy now, >> right?

198:19>> But he helped the offense, >> you know, open things up. Like I'm I'm good with Worthy. Like go go go away,

198:26but go away to a specific role that helps someone else like be a sidekick for some for for Kelsey and Rice. Open

198:34things up. Open things up.

198:35>> We're good. We've seen enough. Please, please help other people get targets.

198:40You know, that's where I'm at.

198:44>> Yeah. I mean, I'm there, too. That's where it is. It's just I don't know if he's good enough to even do that is

198:48basically what I'm saying.

198:50Uh but >> Rice was playing well before he got hurt. I don't know if this is going to be an impact on his play. U you know, he

198:58was over two yards per out run. He was still creating after the catch which is still like good. He was getting you know

199:04obviously the one thing you worry about is he if they go back to and I don't know like the shakeup because of the

199:09taekwon injury but he was playing more outside and you know he he has to win more as an actual wide receiver than he

199:16has in the past and like for this particular matchup that is a tougher assignment uh you know if Certan's going to be back.

199:22>> So there's a little bit of worry there like health and like kind of role there's like some fragility there. I

199:27mean, also, I mean, you go back to week one. This is another thing where we talked about Aaron Rogers. Like, if

199:31you're box court playing Patrick Mahomes here from week one and not looking at what happened in that game, like, it's tough, man. Like, you're like, "Oh, he

199:39Patrick Mahomes was good in that that week one game. He had 22 fantasy points, dude. He had a what, a 36% success rate

199:45in that game." He he was uh u he averaged 1.1 airs per completed pass in that game.

199:54>> My god. He he had a minus CPOE on 4.1 air yards per attempt. Like how is that possible?

200:04>> I guess it's possible because your expected completion percentage might be like 98%.

200:10So if you if you don't complete all your passes, >> he only completed 55% of his passes in that game. Uh he ran he and he kind of

200:19gave us a false lead, I think, cuz he ran in that game. He ran he scrambled for a touchdown. He also scrambled for a

200:23touchdown. got called back in that game.

200:25We're like, oh, like Mahomes has like got no ill effects and he's run a little bit, but like he had 8.3 rushing points

200:32in that game. He has 4.8 rushing points since.

200:35>> So, and Denver is like a battle tested defense. Like they faced Mahomes, they faced Trevor Lawrence, they face Matthew Stafford, they face Brock Pury. Like

200:44they're good. Like they're good.

200:46>> They're good. They're good. Yeah.

200:48>> And likeh, man, like I don't feel great about it.

200:52like and then we had >> you feel okay about Rice just to accumulate targets. You're you're drafted him, you're plugging him back

201:00in. I assume >> I have a team like yeah just immediately playing him back in. But like I said some fragility just based on the matchup

201:07and and where if he's stuck still playing outside at you know if Certan's back and playing.

201:12>> Yeah.

201:12>> To me it's still just like you go back to Kenneth Walker and the workload. Uh looks like Zack Allen is going to be

201:18out. Um let me see did he practice?

201:21because if he's out it actually is a big deal. He was limited limit questionable.

201:25So if he plays that's actually that that's helpful to them because they might get some guys back but him off the

201:28field they've been awful against the run. So him being out would be pretty massive for Kenneth Walker. It looks like they're going to get Certan and

201:35Huanga back too as well. So no Hufunga is out. Huanga's out. Certan is full.

201:40Certana is back.

201:41>> Hua's out.

201:42>> Sana's back and they got Cooper back last week too >> and Cooper came back. Like this is a good defense. So like I'm not as bullish

201:48if you're just like oh Mahomes had a tough stretch. I'm gonna go back to him.

201:51He scored 22 fantasy points against this guy. Uh is this game's also in Denver, too, >> right?

201:59Yeah. I don't think that uh Mahomes Yeah, I'm not excited to play Mahomes this week. I think Rice can accumulate volume. I think Kelsey can accumulate

202:07volume. He certainly did in week one. Um >> I do kind of like him here. Yeah.

202:13>> Yeah. But yeah, I think Kenneth Walker is going to be this is we're looking at talked about being a fist fight. I I

202:21said I think the Chiefs would win that fist fight. I think they'd win it because they have Kenneth Walker, >> right?

202:26>> And the other team doesn't. And Walker has just been absurd this year. Um he's been a good receiver and an elite

202:32running back, best burst, best breakaway numbers in the league. [snorts] Um they're going to get him the ball a ton.

202:40Like he's he's going to be the the focal point as he was in the first game.

202:44Yeah, 100%.

202:46>> Uh, all right, let's go to the last game of the week. Patriots at Dolphins. Uh, let's talk Dolphins. Get that out of the

202:54way. We can close with >> Yeah.

202:56>> with the Pats and what we think they do.

202:58Um, >> the Dolphins are coming off a strong game from Malik Willis, but uh they are also coming off their lowest pass rate

203:07of the season, the 46% pass rate. Um, they're now getting a Patriots run defense that's not particularly good.

203:17They don't really profile as a run funnel, but that that doesn't matter.

203:20The Dolphins are really hiding their passing game, much like the Chargers.

203:26>> Um, and and last week, I think, is a pretty strong indication that that's going to continue. It's not like just

203:31that, oh, Willis is playing bad. We gota we got to run the ball. They've passed less than expected every single game.

203:36And when Willis was actually playing his best, they posted the lowest pass rate of the year. It's it's yeah that that

203:43this is an identity for them and it's going to keep limiting passing volume but um you you had some notes on Ali

203:51Gordon here.

203:52>> Well, I was just saying from from you know in the context of like the quorum stuff is that I mean if you if you spent

203:58a bunch of fab on Ali Gordon I think you feel great like you got this you know nice volume based RB2. I just want to

204:03put some context that he has not had an RB1 scoring week and he scored a touchdown in four straight games. uh he

204:10has no pass game utilization because you said they're not even really throwing. So just be a little cognizant of like when this guy

204:16doesn't score a touchdown like there is a lot lower of a floor here than I think I feel like a lot of people are getting

204:22comfortable with him and I don't think we should be yet even though I do think that you should feel good about the fab

204:27you spent on him.

204:28>> For sure. For sure. Uh Malik Washington I think is somewhat interesting here. You do. So Caleb Douglas is coming off a nice game.

204:38was great to see him back and he was productive right away. Uh this is, you know, a team that has Christian Gonzalez

204:44on the outside. The weakest starting quarterback for the the Patriots is in the slot, Marcus Jones. And Washington um is at a 27% target share, uh 1.77

204:55yards per route run, and he's 91st percentile in open score. So, it's kind of like I, you know, it's not an offense

205:04I really want to be investing in, but um Washington is breaking out. I think like he looks like a a useful NFL receiver in

205:13a situation where it's like kind of who cares because he's a volume accumulator. He's not going to be a big play guy. But when the Dolphins

205:23eventually get a quarter back, like if they got a pocket passer next season, I I would kind of be intrigued by

205:31Washington as, you know, one of these double digit round best ball pick type guys where you're you're hoping he has, you know, kind of a secondary breakout

205:40in a better situation. Um, and I think he can kind of pop up for some useful weeks here even with Willis. So, he's

205:48just someone I wanted to shout out as a guy. Like I've been kind of skeptical of what we've seen so far and I'm I'm

205:53starting starting to believe in a sense.

205:55I mean basically I'm ready to tout him and then have it not work and people to yell at me and he's our next Josh.

206:02That's what I'm saying.

206:03>> Yeah. [laughter] >> Yeah. I mean they rotated in uh like kind of they had them like a little bit more of a rotation with Douglas coming

206:10back last week. Douglas played the most of the one to two wide receiver stuff.

206:14He only had three targets in the game.

206:16he gets the worst of it because he's going to just naturally find Gonzalez the most just by default of where he

206:22lines up. So, he's a guy I would say like, you know, if if you picked him up like, you know, maybe just hold off on

206:28him for another week.

206:30>> I agree.

206:31>> Like, yeah, just see. It's probably not a spot. I I would expect too that uh the Pat the Dolphins have put up a fight

206:36against the Jets and I know the box score looks like they put up a fight against the Bengals, but like you know,

206:41they were down 13 points in the fourth quarter of that Bengals game. like it wasn't as close as the box score did. We

206:46got like you said you always say it still counts. The cosmetic stuff counts but I feel like the Patriots are just a

206:51lot better team than the Dolphins and I don't think we'll see they do historically they do tend to underplay in Miami. Maybe they stay sticky here

206:59like they they tend to struggle when they go to Miami but I'm not >> it's usually earlier right when they tend to struggle. Isn't it usually

207:06really hot? Also, this game is uh in the after it's at 4, not 1, which usually the home field advantage Dolphins like

207:11they they want you at noon that 1 p.m.

207:15100 degree in your dark jerseys uh homefield advantage. They don't have that here. I just see this as a struggle spot for the Dolphins in general.

207:25>> I agree. I also think Drake May is someone I like in these spots where he's big he's a big favorite. I think that

207:33he's kind of like like early career Josh Allen, we would get get more excited about him when he was front running.

207:40>> Yeah.

207:40>> And I kind of feel like May is um is one of those guys. I mean, he he performed well last week in EPA and everything,

207:50but you know, he had that screen pass to Raandre and, you know, it was a little bit they had, you know, he got some kind

207:57of garbage yards at the end when the the Bears had already kicked the field goal, put it up two scores and and stuff. So,

208:06um, largely his bounceback after a rough start to the season has been against the Bills, terrible defense. Raiders bad defense. Jets bad defense. Uh held up

208:16well against the Bears. But now it's a Dolphins defense that is quite quite bad. 29th in DVOA against the pass. Dead

208:23last in EPA and success rate against the pass. Um they've played some good quarterbacks, but also they've been nuked by good quarterbacks. Pretty 100th

208:32percentile EPA per play. Mahomes 94th, Burrow 91st, and then last week Gino Smith was 85th. So, you know, good quarterbacks or even like decent

208:42quarterbacks and, you know, kind of below average quarterbacks with good weapons. You know, it's like that's all you really need. And and May is now

208:49playing, you know, his season long numbers are back up there with the the best guys at this point. So, I do expect

208:56May to be really efficient here, even without AJ Brown. It looks like we're I don't know if he's been officially ruled

209:01out, but he didn't practice today, so they won't have him, it looks like. And that's that hurts the offense, but I

209:09think May we'll get there. It hurts us as much as anything because it's going to be harder to predict where targets

209:15go.

209:17>> Although, having said that, I mean, the Patriots are thinning out. They They have Matt Collins.

209:22>> They're out of bodies, dude.

209:23>> They're out of bodies. So, they've been playing Effton Chisum and and Kyle Williams in a split role.

209:29>> Yep.

209:30>> Uh Chisum is kind of like your your possession receiver type guy. Um he's has a 17% targets per out. Run a 14%

209:38first read target rate. So he's been earning earning targets and a part of the game plan. Kyle Williams is like very much a deep threat. 17.7 ADOT. Um

209:49he will get targeted. But if you if you tell me that he's going to run like 75% route participation, I mean Kyle Williams can catch a couple

209:59long balls against this defense. Like >> Hyo was pitching. Kyle Williams is the dart the the hidden hammer this >> I mean I I don't think that's off base

210:09like it it's going to come down to whether or not he catches a couple plays like it's they won't kind of keep going

210:15back to him. He's going to have to >> he's going to get those shots >> and he's going to have to catch them but

210:20if he does you're there like you're instantly there. So >> uh I I don't mind that at all. I think I

210:27might be touting it myself. And uh did you know Demario Douglas is gonna run a bunch of routes with Brown out. He's not

210:34going to be like 90% route participation. He's peaked at 79% this year, which was week one. He's been at 74 and 72% the last two weeks. So, he's

210:42going to still be in somewhat of a part-time role, but you know, he'll have his he'll get his targets and everything. Uh and they just don't have

210:48any other guys. Like the it's sort of these three wide receivers now.

210:51>> Um >> the the fourth wide receiver is Eli Raridan, the the second tight end. Yeah, they're going to they're going to

210:56definitely play some 12 13 12 here and >> play a bunch. Yeah.

211:00>> Yeah.

211:00>> And so I mean Riden I think is another dude who went on the field. He has a 19% targets per out run a 2.13 yards per

211:11route run. Uh 15% first read target rate. I I I said you know he's kind of their Kenyan Sadi.

211:19Is that is that taking it too far?

211:21>> No, he seems way better as a like a complete player. He's way better as a complete player than Kenya and Sadiq,

211:26especially at this stage of his career.

211:28Maybe Sadiq eventually, you know, blossoms. Uh but Raren, uh was an awesome prospect in my eyes. I thought he was >> I I liked him a lot as a prospect. Yeah.

211:36>> Yeah. He just had, you know, some really bad luck injuries, you know, in college.

211:40Um but he's a really good player and he's really good in the run game. And uh I think we'll see both of these guys

211:45play a lot, him and Honor Henry.

211:47Dolphins this year against tight ends have allowed 44 of 48 targets to be completed to tight ends. Uh oh man 31st

211:55in yards per target as well on those and 28th in touchdown rate. Uh [gasps] like [laughter] 44 to 48 is pretty

212:03stupid. Like 92% completion rate the tight end targets. Like what the hell is that dude? We're eight we're eight weeks into

212:11the season.

212:12>> That is wild. That is wild. Yeah man. So yeah, I think Hunter Henry, who had his highest route participation last week

212:20and his highest target share since week two or both since week two, he's going to I think he's the biggest bet to lead

212:24in targets. I love the Kyle Williams shout. You could kind of whack them all.

212:29I >> I don't think it's necessarily AJ Brown being out as plus for Drake May, but I think Drake May actually is the type of

212:36guy that I don't necessarily think needs an alpha receiver. Um I think he's going to distribute in this game. He's going

212:42to run around. He's going to be great.

212:45If you give him if you give Drake May sufficient protection, then I don't think he needs an alpha receiver either.

212:52I think it's really helpful.

212:53>> Well, let me say this. I don't think he needs AJ Brown because he likes to take his time.

212:59>> Yeah, maybe not.

213:00>> Let me say that. Like obviously if he had Justin Jefferson or like probably like that those are all pluses. I don't

213:05think this version of this alpha receiver is he's that depended on.

213:10>> Yeah. Well, if he catches some of those passes, [laughter] you know, it's like, hey, >> well, that's the problem.

213:16>> Catch one, >> pick one and catch it. You [laughter] don't have to catch them all.

213:21>> Yeah.

213:21>> Oh, it's brutal. Yeah. But yeah, I think May May is really good at as long as you you give him time, you know, he steps up

213:28in the pocket nicely. He can he can kind of move kind of flow to the side and still still throw down field. He's

213:34really good that way. So, I I I tend to agree. I mean, I do think Rarin is someone who, you know, could have could

213:41pop up here. I mean, I think the problem with Rarin is I don't think he's going to get much past like 50% route

213:46participation, but >> I mean, you are starting to get into like Daltton Concaidesque route participation from last year with with

213:55not too much more playing time. Um, and I don't know how much they trust Kyle Williams. I think they trust Chisum more

214:02than Williams. And yeah, Rarin is a ticket to keep Williams in a more limited role.

214:07>> Well, Kyle Williams does one thing well.

214:09He's got one.

214:10>> He does one thing well. Exactly.

214:11>> Press man. If you're going to play press man, he is going to get past you.

214:15>> Yeah. And so is that, you know, how much of that are they dealing with?

214:19>> No, not really. None of it.

214:21>> So yeah, I could see them in 12 a lot and that's >> maybe more Chisum and Douglas. Although Doug then means you're having Douglas on

214:27the outside. So yeah, Hen, you're right that Henry of all the things that can kind of happen, Henry is going to be at

214:34the center of all of them. And so I I do think Henry is is set up quite nicely here.

214:39>> But if you got a whack-a-ole on buys or you know, hey, I'm looking for a pun option. I mean, like kind of most of

214:44these dudes are because the Dolphins are just that bad as an efficiency stance.

214:47The only thing kind of hiding them from some of the stuff that they're not getting crushed on is that they just

214:53don't pay they don't face a ton of pass volume. But like all their efficiency metrics literally everywhere are awful.

214:59>> Yeah. And that's where I think the Patriots, you know, are I think they're willing to just like put up points to

215:05the air and then >> also is going to cook in this game.

215:08>> Roundre is going to cook and then they'll kind of salt it away. But yeah, Raandre he'll get he'll get plenty of work. Cory

215:15Ker is getting enough work to like be annoying though.

215:18>> Yeah.

215:18>> So I don't think >> but he's not getting any high values though. Like it's still even we saw it again on Thursday.

215:23>> Yeah.

215:24>> Uh he So this season he's played Raandre has five of six backfield touches on goal to goal uh plays. Played 82% of the

215:32offensive snaps. Uh was in at the red zone. He had the only touch in that area last week. Like those are all his, man.

215:39>> Yep. Yep. Yeah. I'm with you. It's just like you're kind of part of the fun of Arandre. I know >> he's just going to rack up carries in

215:46the second half and he he'll get he'll have plenty of work, but >> it's not going to be absurd.

215:52>> I thought for sure when they you ended up being Trayvon was just sick and that's why they sent him home yesterday.

215:57I was I thought for sure he got traded.

216:01Oh, >> well because they popped up as a buyer in this Jonathan Taylor sweeps stakes and like he would make a sense for like

216:08the Colts to get him back as like a piece and I thought for sure we were getting and it wasn't and it was just

216:12sick. I was like a [ __ ] >> cuz he's done here, bro. Like he's done >> at least like >> I would be so pissed if they if like the

216:22Patriots had a chance to trade for a cult and it's not Quinton Nelson. Like you know what [laughter] I mean? Like

216:28like fix your line. fix your line. The line's obviously not as bad as it was, but still not good.

216:33>> No, they've just had a ton of injuries >> everywhere. Like you said, they are thin. Uh they've had a ton of off

216:39receiver now.

216:40>> Yeah. [sighs] All right, man. I think that'll do it.

216:44Uh tell the people what you got going on at Shar Football Analysis.

216:47>> Yeah, Sharp Football Analysis. Writing up all these games, writing up all the DFS picks this week. You know, love breaking down uh you know, all these

216:52games, talking about stuff uh with everyone here. I'm glad you guys still like the the show and it's it's still fun to break down these games.

217:00>> Yeah. Thanks so much for watching and uh please please do check out the worksheet and check out the walkthrough. Um that's

217:08how we then you know have time to come talk here on YouTube for almost four hours. So >> uh if you want to support the pod,

217:14support the uh the writeups over at the walkthrough and sharp football analys over at legendaryupside.com and sharp football analysis. Um, but yeah, we'll

217:23be back here for the week nine walkthrough.

217:27Pretty close. Double digits. We have November football this weekend. Halfway.

217:33We'll be halfway next week.

217:34>> Yeah, halfway next week. Until then, good luck in week eight.

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