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Angles and Upside Week 5 w/ Rich Hribar

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

3 hr 29 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Oct 10, 2026

Published

Sat, October 10, 2026

35

Player insights

35

Players mentioned

Topics

Antonio GibsonBraelon AllenBrock BowersChris BrooksChris OlaveChristian WatsonColston LovelandD'Andre SwiftDemario DouglasDrake MayeDylan LaubeHunter HenryJaMycal HastyJonathan Taylor

Player analysis

Player insights

35

Antonio Gibson

NegativeUsage18:11

Antonio Gibson has led the Patriots in carries, though his carry shares have fluctuated between 31% and 57%. He is not involved in the passing game, holding only a 3% target share and 0.17 yards per route run, making him touchdown-dependent.

Braelon Allen

NegativeUsage10:17

Braelon Allen is described as a combo-style back who played all snaps last week, serving as a contrast to the expected usage of other depth running backs.

Brock Bowers

PositiveUsage1:42

Brock Bowers is healthy and functioning as a primary wide receiver, with 48% of snaps out wide and 43% in the slot against the Chiefs. He boasts a 94th percentile open score among tight ends, a 28% targets per route run rate, and 2.43 yards per route run. The source expects him to remain the centerpiece of the offense, especially with Patriots cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis likely out, and encourages stacking targets for him.

Chris Brooks

NegativeRole42:52

Chris Brooks started effectively for the Packers but suffered an injury last week, leaving his immediate role and availability in the backfield rotation uncertain.

Chris Olave

NegativeInjury2:12

Chris Olave's injury status forced the source to rewrite their Saints game analysis.

Christian Watson

NegativeRole38:48

Christian Watson was negatively impacted by the Packers' shift to 12 and 13 personnel packages, resulting in a season-low 73% route participation rate. He was limited to 75% of dropbacks in 12 personnel and 40% in 13 personnel, though he remained efficient with over 2 yards per route run.

Colston Loveland

PositiveProjection31:12

Colston Loveland is a strong fantasy option coming off a breakout 35% targets per route run performance last week. He benefits from the Bears' usage of 12 and 13 personnel against two-high defensive structures and is ranked as a TE1 for the week.

D'Andre Swift

PositiveUsage28:38

With Kyle Manungai out, DeAndre Swift is expected to see a huge jump in backfield opportunity and is considered a mid-range locked-in RB1 against a poor Packers run defense.

Demario Douglas

NegativeUsage22:14

Demario Douglas is a risky fantasy start with limited upside due to a crowded receiver rotation; his route participation dropped from 75% to 50% last week. The source characterizes him as a mildly productive player for his career and notes that the upcoming matchup is not favorable. The source prefers starting Jeremy Bernard or Isaac Tesla over him.

Drake Maye

PositiveBreakout13:43

Drake Maye remains a volatile QB1 option who demonstrated upside by rebounding from a poor Week 3 (-15.3 EPA) to a strong Week 4 performance (16.2 EPA, QB7 success rate). He ranks second only to Lamar Jackson in rushing yards among quarterbacks this season, though he faces a tough Raiders pass rush.

Dylan Laube

PositiveDepth Chart8:54

The source suggests that Dylan Laube is likely to see playing time or that the team will utilize their RB4 rather than giving a significant passing-game role to Mike Washington.

Hunter Henry

NegativeUsage25:40

Hunter Henry is viewed as a high-end TE2. His route participation increased following the return of Eli Raridan as the team shifted toward more 12-personnel usage.

JaMycal Hasty

NegativeDepth Chart19:39

The Patriots do not have a viable third running back behind the primary duo, with JaMycal Hasty having no meaningful involvement in the offense.

Jonathan Taylor

NegativeUsage8:27

Jonathan Taylor's 11% target share is cited as a low-end benchmark for running back involvement in the passing game, serving as a contrast to the higher target share expectations for players like Ashton Genty.

Jordan Love

NegativeUsage62:44

Jordan Love achieved a season-high completion rate last week by shifting to a quick-passing game plan, with 70% of his throws occurring within 2.5 seconds of the snap. The team significantly reduced his pressure rate to 13% by utilizing more 12 and 13 personnel packages and throwing behind the line of scrimmage at a 37% rate.

Josh Jacobs

PositiveUsage40:24

Josh Jacobs is viewed as a high-upside runner who is "running the hell out of the ball" despite the Packers' offensive line struggles; while he is considered an adequate receiver, he lacks the dynamic receiving profile required for the team's current offensive scheme.

Kalif Raymond

NegativeUsage52:13

Khalif Raymond's route participation dropped from 74% in week three to 56%, signaling a volatile role that is highly contingent on the team's usage of 11 personnel.

Kirk Cousins

PositiveProjection13:00

Kirk Cousins has played well recently, ranking in the 71st percentile in EPA per play and 85th percentile in success rate last week against a solid Chiefs defense. The Raiders organization appears to have confidence in his ability to generate points through the air.

Kyle Williams

NegativeUsage25:59

Kyle Williams saw his route participation drop from 44% in week three to 26% last week, though he maintains a role that still matters in the offense.

Lamar Jackson

NegativeProjection17:37

Lamar Jackson is used as the primary benchmark for rushing production among quarterbacks, with Drake Maye currently ranking second to him in total rushing yards this season.

Mack Hollins

PositiveInjury15:09

Mack Hollins is ruled out for the upcoming game; his absence is notable as he currently shares the team lead in target share.

MarShawn Lloyd

NegativeProjection43:03

MarShawn Lloyd has been ineffective as a runner, and even in an optimal scenario, his role would likely be limited to a compartmentalized receiving-back capacity.

Michael Mayer

PositiveUsage13:27

Michael Mayer could see increased work as an underneath target, given his consistent low aDOT (below 5.5) in every game this season.

Michael Pittman

NegativeInjury2:23

Michael Pittman Jr. re-aggravated his foot injury.

Mike Washington Jr.

NegativeUsage5:41

Mike Washington is a volatile fantasy option who serves as a potential replacement for Ashton Genty; he is a low-success-rate runner (33% success rate, ranking 45th) and a poor pass protector. Despite his backup status, he shows a boom-bust profile, ranking 10th in rush yards over expected per game.

Nico Collins

PositiveInjury1:42

Nico Collins appears to be healthy and back in action following his injury.

Parker Washington

NegativeMatchup15:03

The Patriots defense has historically bracketed slot receivers, specifically targeting Parker Washington in previous matchups as a defensive strategy.

Rhamondre Stevenson

NegativeInjury17:46

Rhamondre Stevenson is dealing with an injury and his status for Sunday is uncertain, despite his own claims that he is playing. His presence in the lineup negatively impacts the fantasy value of the entire Patriots backfield by cannibalizing high-value touches.

Rome Odunze

NegativeUsage53:50

Rome Odunze maintains high route participation but is struggling with efficiency, posting only a 19% targets per route run and ranking in the 22nd percentile for open score, suggesting he is a big-bodied threat who fails to generate consistent separation.

Romeo Doubs

NegativeUsage22:15

The source expresses regret over drafting Doubs, citing inconsistent usage and a team that does not seem enamored with him. His route participation hit a season-low 69% last week. Furthermore, he faces a poor matchup against the Raiders, who are highly effective against outside receivers (where Doubs plays 94% of his snaps), allowing a league-low 45% catch rate.

Sam LaPorta

NegativeUsage58:24

Sam LaPorta remains a matchup-based weapon rather than a consistent engine of the offense. While he underperformed his opportunity recently, he maintains a high tight end two floor with potential for tight end one status if he finds the end zone. His usage is expected to remain static as the matchup dictates he will be involved, though he is not currently a must-start player.

Stefon Diggs

NegativeInjury2:15

Stefon Diggs' injury status forced the source to rewrite their Commanders game analysis.

Tee Higgins

NegativeInjury2:21

Tee Higgins is unlikely to play in the upcoming game due to injury.

Tre Tucker

PositiveSleeper20:08

Trey Tucker is a volatile target earner who could benefit from the Patriots' starting cornerbacks being out, making him a potential big-play candidate in a game where the Raiders may lean on the pass.

Tucker Kraft

PositiveInjury39:19

Tucker Kraft is struggling to regain his form post-injury, specifically lacking the yards-after-catch (YAC) ability he displayed last year. He is currently averaging 6.1 yards per catch and 6.1 yards per target, failing to show the explosive ability expected of him in the Packers' short-passing scheme.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

2,192

0:00Welcome to the Legendary Upside podcast and YouTube channel. My name is Pat Crane. You can follow all my content at legendary upside.com. With me today,

0:07Rich Reebar of Sharp Football Analysis.

0:09Reeves, how's it going? It's going good, man. Uh, you know, we're we're a month into the season by week started. We were

0:15kind of chatting about the show that it's just been, you know, kind of a war of attrition already for everyone. like

0:20there's been so many injuries and there's been so many injury adjustments this week that it's just been kind of a a wild start to this season that I don't

0:26know like how your leagues are that you're in, but like everyone's kind of jumbled up in most of my leagues. Uh

0:31there might be like one team that's sun run a little bit, but mostly everyone's kind of dealt with like something in

0:36some capacity through four weeks.

0:38>> Well, I mean like because you know you've got guys like CD Lamb have have to have CD Lamb. Oh. Oh, wait. That's

0:45not so great. You know, puts up a stinker last night. Ted McMillan went nuts after a really slow start. Bucky Irving just had a career rushing day

0:53last night. Has been up and down. Had a terrible week three or week four I guess for him. Um so yeah, I mean it's it's

1:02been tough and then there's been a bunch of injuries. Some of like like Nico Collins looks back, Bowers looks back.

1:06We'll we'll talk about those guys today, but >> it's been crazy with the injuries and then a lot of injuries as we rode up the

1:12games. If you're not familiar, we're doing our angles and upside podcast here, talking through Rich's worksheet article, which you can find over at

1:19Chart Football Analysis and my walkthrough over at Legendary Upside. Do a game by-game preview and we're going to talk through all the games on the

1:26main Sunday slate. Um, but yeah, as we were doing that, just like I had to rewrite the Saints because of Chris

1:32Lave, I had to rewrite the Commanders because Stefon Digs, rewrite the Bengals because it looks like Chase is going to play and Higgins probably isn't. And I

1:39had it the other way when I was originally writing up. Michael Pitman reagravated uh his foot injury. So that you know that changes that it's just

1:47like so many different injuries. Kyle Manungai turf toe. Um so that's going to be the like kind of the meadow of this

1:54week is that um even if you don't have any Chiefs or Panthers, >> you might not have anyone to play.

2:06>> Only two teams on by. But it feels like a thousand teams are by >> a thousand teams. everyone feels like

2:11the league is up by and also too that it's not just the injuries we've been dealing with this year. It's also like

2:15the guys leaving with injuries like early in games is I feel like has been particularly tough this year cuz like those are the ones they're in your

2:21lineup already. Jefferson Chase last week you have Chase. It's just like it's just been it's real rough man when you have those types of situations play out.

2:30>> Totally. Yeah. Kyler Murray week one.

2:32It's it's been it's been pretty bad that way, too. Um all right, but let's let's get into it. We can kick things off with

2:37one of those injuries. So, Raiders at Patriots. Um, I had Brock Bowers as the cover boy this week. Fortunately, Bowowers is healthy, but Ashton Genty

2:45popped up on the injury report yesterday with a foot injury and then didn't practice today. So, I I wrote this up

2:51like Genty was going to play, but it looks like he probably won't play. Uh, what are your thoughts on how that would

2:58affect this matchup?

3:02>> Yeah, JT, one of the best workload, like just big-time work workhorse back. uh really involved hyperaggressively in the passing game is what kind of what we

3:10talked about last week like he hasn't been electric as a runner and you could see Sunday he just didn't look healthy

3:15like he was even his first carry of the game he kind of came out and it was kind of looked like he was aggrav you know

3:20aggravated um so if he's out it is a big deal because even though he hasn't been an efficient runner his >> his contra uh contributions in the past

3:30game have been like he's he's really been leaned on a as a pass catcher uh 18% target share fair just under 18%.

3:37He's like the RB9 in yards per hour run.

3:39That was like your point last week is like well he's still been an effect he's still being really effective as a

3:42receiver and he's had all this red zone work. Like plugging in Mike Washington who also is like a very low success rate

3:49runner. Uh I don't think really changes the dynamics of the running game except for maybe like being able to like give

3:55you an explosive cuz you give Mike Washington 20 carries like 15 might be terrible but like the five that are good

4:00could be really good. Um, but I don't know if he's going to be as involved as a pass catcher to the degree JTY is. He

4:07was a he was kind of a he was a rough pass catcher in college. His hands aren't bad, but like he's re he's awful

4:12in pass protection like like horrendous.

4:15So, the dynamic is is kind of moved in that capacity. He's a guy like he'll get played in DFS and you're you'll be like

4:22glad if he's on your bench like to plug him in and just throw the volume at the wall in a week like this. Um, but it it

4:27is like a he's more of a volatile player though for sure. But we were in the same spot with like Trayvon Henderson last

4:33year. It's like what are we really getting here? And if you just give a dude 80% of the touches, the 90% of the

4:37touches, you just see what happens.

4:40>> Yeah. And so on the passing stuff, Ashton Jensen had 21% target share in week one and then 25% in week two. Then

4:47Bowowers comes back, he drops to 10%.

4:49But last week he was back up to 17%.

4:52>> Yep.

4:52>> And you know, he's my my take was that he would probably settle in that kind of high teens range. He's at 18%. Um maybe

5:00he ends up this season's 15 16% but I don't think Genty, you know, assuming health is going to be someone who's down

5:07in like the 10% like Jonathan Taylor I think has an 11% target share. He's going to be well above that over the

5:11course of the year I think. Um but they definitely were leaning on him more without Bowowers, but Washington has a 2% target share for the season. He's

5:20been at 000 and four uh last week. He has minus 0.06 yards per hour. yards permanent is not supposed to be minus,

5:30you know. So, so that's real real bad.

5:34Um, he's barely run any routes. He just has an 11% round participation. I think Dylan Lowby is is probably going to be

5:40out there or they'll find someone else, you know, whoever their RB4 is will play like before I think they give Washington

5:48a huge role in the passing game. So, um I do think of him as more of like that two down type of guy, like even more so

5:56than than a Tvon Henderson. But to your point, I mean, if you give him enough touches, uh he he can be an effective

6:01player. Um probably like a like a high-end RB2 type of guy. I would say >> like upside RB2. Yeah, >> upside RB2. Yeah.

6:11>> Like you understand there's like volatility, road dog, you know.

6:17>> Yeah. But I mean, he could end up getting a ton of work. Brilan Allen would be kind of a a somewhat of a

6:24combo. Although Allen played all the snaps last week, and I don't think that that Washington will will get that kind of usage. But yeah, losing that weapon

6:33in the passing game will hurt. It should make Bowowers even more of a priority though, and he is already like a massive

6:40priority for them. And on the on the Patriots side, Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis look like they're going to be out. Those are both starting outside

6:50wide uh outside corners for the Patriots after we saw the um the Raiders do this very unusual

6:59uh deployment with Brock Bowers. And you know, that kind of stuff is you maybe wouldn't see like, okay, he played 17%

7:09of his routes in line in week three.

7:11That probably change over the course of the year. It did. He dropped to just 9% last week. So, the usage was even more

7:18just straight up wide receiver in week four than it was in week three. Uh 48% of his snaps were out wide against the

7:24Chiefs, 43% of his snaps in the slot. I think it makes a ton of sense for Bowers to be out wide this week with the

7:32Patriots having two backup corners there. He's he is just a straightup wide receiver.

7:37>> By the way, he has a n a 94th percentile open score uh among tight ends. So, he's playing straight up wide receiver uh

7:45duties and he's performing excellently uh and drawing targets at a very high rate. 28% targets per out run, 2.43 yards per out run. So yeah, I think he

7:55he's just going to be the centerpiece as you would expect. But Genty being out, I think in some ways opens up things more

8:02for Bowowers, who is, you know, on the lower A dot side of things typically.

8:07Um, not not like a deep threat, more of a Yak guy. Um, but you know, maybe Michael Mayer sees a little bit more

8:13work as is kind of another underneath target. He's had an eight out of below 5.5 in every game this year. But

8:20>> what are your thoughts on the passing game here?

8:22Yeah, Bowers. Uh I thought, you know, Spags did a pretty good job like in context of the Raiders dropping back 52

8:29times to hold him to six for 86. Like that's pretty solid, right? Like like uh they and Spags threw all cornerbacks at

8:37him. Like he threw Monsour Delane at him, null Williams, Bowers had just one of his 11 targets come in coverage of a

8:43linebacker last week. Uh and like they did a a moderate job. So I was like entering I was like oo this is going to

8:49be fun. And like if the Patriots have Christian Gonzalez back, like this could be kind of cool. Like we'll to see

8:53Bowers go up against like a really top end quarterback.

8:55>> I think they just put him in the slot a bunch to be honest.

8:58>> Probably. But then that kind of I think uh might have helped the Patriots a little bit even more because we saw them

9:03do that when they faced Parker Washington. They were like, "Well, if you're just going to move Parker Washington slot, like we'll bracket

9:07him." And then now Gonzalez Gonzalez erases a dude like >> right like um >> so I was I was more I was more like just

9:15interested in seeing the matchup as a football fan than having like a you know being worried about any level. And now

9:20with Gonzalez and Carlton Davis Carlton Davis out like it's kind of like just a pro. Like it's like you said like those

9:26are just bonuses I think for Bowers uh to to just keep running hot, keep stacking targets. This is a game too

9:33that could be a little more competitive and have some upside too.

9:38as well. The Raiders have just shown like that was their test like for me last week. Like I was like, "All right,

9:42let's see. The Raiders are facing like a team that's actually like on the the end of the spectrum that I think can compete

9:48for a Super Bowl." And you know, like let's see how they perform. They pushed the Chiefs. They were game like and it's

9:54like all right like this team I think is going to have staying power. I uh the coaching staff seems like a massive

9:59upgrade. Clint Kubak and the defensive coordinator Rob Leonard also has done a really good job this season. I mean, I thought they gave Patrick Mahomes a good

10:08amount of fits, too. So, uh, I think the Raiders, this will be a competitive game, and if the Patriots are still

10:12scoring points, I think they can score points because they've shown proof that they're capable of scoring points. And if the Raiders are going to score points

10:18without Ashen Jy being available, like, it has to go through Brock Bowers.

10:23>> It has to. Yeah. And shout out to Kirk Cousins. He he was 71st percentile in EPA per play last week, 85th percentile

10:28in success rate, and the Chiefs are a pretty solid defense. He's faced some fairly weak defenses to this point.

10:36Dolphins, Chargers, Saints before the Chiefs. But the Chiefs do look like a good defense.

10:41>> And Cousins has played well. Like he's it doesn't need to be amazing. He just needs to be pretty good.

10:47>> Um >> Patriots, by the way, do have a pretty weak run defense. They're 28th in DBA, 30th in EPA, 16th in success rate. So,

10:55and that's kind of like if you're Mike Washington, you're like, "Oh, so you are like pretty consistent, but you give up

11:00big plays on the ground." Awesome.

11:02>> Yeah. like me, too. So, I think there could be some upside here for for Washington. Like we were talking about,

11:08it's kind of that boom bust rushing profile. Uh he's he's running back 10 in rush yards over expected per game despite being a backup. So, that's

11:15that's impressive. He's running back nine per attempt, but he's running back 45 with a 33% success rate. So, >> very much kind of a boom bust breakaway

11:24runner.

11:25>> Yeah.

11:25>> Yeah. Big runs are what he gets. Yeah.

11:27That's been the big difference this Patriots team this year defensively is that last year they were awesome against the run. Uh and then this year they've

11:33been real kind of spotty and vulnerable.

11:36Um that that's been the big difference I think for their defense and fatality to start the year. They're also in the

11:41middle of the pack and receiving points which honestly maybe doesn't matter now JT being out more of an an angle for JT.

11:48Um >> yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

11:49>> But yeah, that's been the big change for them. This is a good like by the numbers this is a really good pass defense.

11:55Fifth in DVA, fifth in EPA and eighth in success rate. But when you're out both your starting corners that really changes things. So this is I think a

12:04pretty good matchup for the the Raiders to be able to hang. Any any thoughts on Trey Tucker here? I I have him as a wide

12:10zero five this week. I think the outside cornerbacks being out could be >> Yeah, definitely that he gets a trickle down from the injuries. I mean, his he's

12:16just a a real volatile target earner in the offense, but this would be a spot if you're like objectively saying like,

12:22"Hey, I got like I'm I'm down injuries real bad." Like, he's he's running routes uh and can turn in a big play.

12:29So, like that's the story you're telling stuff like, "Hey, but hey, the quarterbacks are out.

12:33>> Uh this is a guy that could turn in a big play in a game where like they're road dogs, right? So, like they're still

12:38going to be like probably pushed to have more passing volume than they typically would have. And then with Genty being out too, like there's just another

12:44variable to where could make them lean on the pass a little bit more.

12:48>> I'd also say that you know Genty being out and um you know this this being an actually exploitable pass defense now

12:57with with the corners out. Kubak after being really runheavy last year, he's been run first this season. The the Raiders have a minus 3% pass rate of

13:06expected, but they're plus 5% on first and 10. So they are I would say they're like run first but not runheavy, you

13:15know, and they're they're not trying to hide their passing game. They seem to have some confidence in Cousins and and their ability to put up points through

13:21the air. So um I don't think it's going to be like a game where the it's like incumbent on the Patriots to really push

13:30the Raiders, otherwise it becomes a slog. Like I think the Raiders can kind of do their part and pull their own

13:35weight uh as far as making this game fun goes. Uh the Patriots though pretty volatile where you have Drake May two

13:43weeks ago he had minus 15.3 EPA that was the worst mark of week three with a 40% success rate which was quarterback 27 on

13:52the week. Then he gets the Bills in Buffalo puts up 16.2 EPA only Bryce Young was better uh in that you know

14:00awesome game against the Lions and he had a 55% success rate May which was quarterback seven. So, completely different uh type of performance and

14:09really nice to see May bounce back. Um he now gets a Raiders defense that is playing pretty impressively. Eighth in DVOA, fourth in EPA, 11th in success

14:20rate. They have a really good pass rush.

14:22They're third in quick pressure rate. Um and so you have, you know, a situation where May could be under pressure this

14:29week. That's been a problem for them.

14:30>> Uh they're they're third worst in allowing pressure. They ranked 26th and preventing quick pressure of 2.5 seconds or less. Um it's this is not a weak

14:39defense. It their defense has been helped like the numbers. They they played Malik Willis, they played Justin Herbert, Tyler Shuck, who's

14:47>> not actually been that efficient, but really, you know, delivering on volume um more so than efficiency. But then, >> you know, Momes was somewhat limited

14:55against them last week. 52nd percentile on EPA per play. So, I I do think this defense is at least a challenge. Um, but

15:03you know, with May playing so much better last week, I am hopeful that that he is starting to turn things around a

15:09little bit. Although should note M.

15:10Hollands is going to be out for this game, which feels like it shouldn't matter. Kind kind of matters. He's tied for the for the team leading target

15:17share right now.

15:19>> Yeah, this is Yeah, I kind of wrote May up as like a like kind of like a volatile QB1. You still last week was a

15:26reminder like the upside still exists.

15:28Like you know, he's the QB1 overall in fantasy points. He he ran he protected the football better. Um he had a season

15:33low in terms of like what's it >> not entirely like >> well well the one was the interception wasn't his fault like that was the that

15:40was just kind of a fluky play. The fumble definitely was was his fault but he lost one EPA worst though on only 9

15:46and a half% of his drop backs. That was by far a season low. He was at 21.2% the first three weeks. So like significant

15:52change in terms of just like avoiding negative plays outside of the the the two turnovers. And like I said, the one

15:58turnover was kind of weird, but the the underlying metrics of the Patriots though, like the things that they've had issues with on offense, like we're still

16:05present. Like he was still he had a 48% pressure rate, only threw for 5.3 yards attempted pressure. You brought up the

16:11pressure stuff >> with the Raiders. And when he's been kept clean this year, like he's been incredible. Even before last week, kept

16:18clean, he was awesome. Like so like that's been a big deal just like protecting him and having him operate with a clean pocket. The other thing

16:25that also happened is like the Patriots still didn't help him in any capacity.

16:29That 27.4% of his passing yards came after the catch. We've been talking about them like uh they still only have one miss tackle forced uh [laughter] as

16:38far as their pass catchers go. Uh that was 28th in the week. So like he's still like contingent on his yardage coming

16:44from like downfield completions and those being complete.

16:47>> U the guys made plays for him last week.

16:50Like Dobs made a play. Uh, Chisum obviously made a play to win the game.

16:55Uh, the one note I did have >> catch.

16:57>> Yeah, it was it was an awesome play.

16:58Sorry. Uh, Gardenner Johnson, like you're bitter about it. [laughter] Like you were even in the he was even in the coverage like to be mad about it, but uh

17:07they did use play action a season high 35% of the dropbacks which 20 21% weeks one through three. That was like the one

17:14like noticeable change that they had offensively. But um there are still some limitations here I think based on just that the personnel they have available.

17:21to the offensive line, but he showed he can run. If he protects the ball, there's still upside here.

17:27>> Yeah. And the Raiders aren't great against the run, which I think is actually, you know, notable against it's not they're not terrible against the

17:34run, but >> um you know, May is obviously a runner.

17:38He he's second to Lamar Jackson this this year in rushing yards. He's got 135 rush rushing yards on the season. Um

17:46on on the rushing side, um Raandre Stevenson is banged up. seems like he might play.

17:52>> Yeah, he he said he's playing. I don't know if he gets to make the deterine on Sunday, but he said today he's playing.

17:57>> Frael had something more like, yeah, you know, not ruling him out or something, but >> it didn't seem as concrete. But

18:04>> yeah, I mean, if if Stevenson plays, I it it kind of kills the value of the backfield in a way because

18:11>> Henderson has actually led in carries.

18:14Now, there was say kind of a a a benching sort of situation back in week two, but Henderson has had carry shares

18:20of 57, 31, and 40%. Which isn't great, but that's led Stevenson in all three weeks. Stevenson's at 21, 27, and 37%

18:31over those three weeks. So, Henderson like technically the lead runner, right?

18:36Except Stephvenson has a huge uh lead in round participation and he's led in target share 11 to zero in week three,

18:4510 to three in week, sorry that was in week two, 10 to3 in week three and 13-3 last week. Um, I think if Stephvenson's

18:54like even at, you know, 90% or 80%, he's going to be out there in passing situations and it's just like stealing

19:00really valuable snaps from Henderson.

19:03And then they're split with a slight lead to Henderson uh on on the rushing side and maybe even a little bit more

19:08towards Henderson as a runner, but Henderson is getting nothing as a receiver. Uh, he's got a target share on the season of just 3%, 0.17 yards per

19:17route run. So, you need Henderson to pop a big run, score a long touchdown probably. Um, and I don't really have

19:24any interest in him playing Stephvenson, you know, while he's like questionable to even play. So, it's just if if Stephvenson sits, I think Henderson's a

19:33really fun play, like a low-end RB1 type of play. Uh, they they don't really have a third running back. It's Cory Ker.

19:40He's he's really not been involved. I think Henderson would kind of own the backfield at that point. Mhm.

19:45>> Um but if Stevenson goes unfortunately I just am not really that interested.

19:50>> Yeah, they they hurt each other in a capacity. It's it's really interesting dynamic because the Patriots uh you know even on Sunday they ran the ball on 50%

19:58of Henderson snaps. Obviously 34% for Stevenson because he's playing the passing out stuff but you would almost say like all right well Henderson is

20:04like the early down grinder. Like surely he's playing in the red zone, right? No.

20:08>> So it's like really weird is like Stevenson's the passing down back but he's also like the red zone back and

20:12like we saw him get the touchdown last week. He also had a two-point conversion. Like they use him. So like like it's a really weird dynamic uh the

20:19the roles that they have, but they cap each other's upside in a in a sense because of the way the split is

20:25compartmentalized. Like Stephvenson has to score a touchdown basically with his usage and Henderson also has to score a touchdown, but he also has to score a

20:32touchdown from like outside of the red zone. [laughter] So it's it's a really it's just a really rough dynamic for fantasy football.

20:39>> It's not even fun for Stephvenson who's who's a 10.8 eight points per game cuz he's not like that great and it's kind

20:46of like oh oh so he gets all the high value touches and it's like sort of but he's kind of like if Chris Rodriguez

20:51meant met like Quint Allen you know like you're like oh like this isn't actually that cool. Uh so yeah and now he's not healthy. Um but yeah I

21:02think if Stephen go it just it the high value stuff really really hurts Henderson um for sure. So, it's also strange like they don't they don't tend

21:11to use Henderson even on like the the outside runs and like some of the more fun run concepts.

21:17>> His whole dynamic is weird since he's come out of college.

21:20>> Yeah. I don't know. I mean, this might be on McDaniels as much as him to be honest.

21:26>> I think he it has to be cuz I haven't even like cuz I haven't even seen the try. Like I just want to like throw him

21:31one screen pass and just let me see cuz like that was where he was that at Ohio State like you give him the ball just on

21:37some of these screens and that's where he was electric and they don't even like I they don't even try it.

21:43>> They they don't seem to like want him to get up to full speed which [laughter] is like his whole deal.

21:48>> His whole deal. Like the whole thing is like what if you what if we got this guy like really running fast?

21:54>> Yeah. They're like what if you ran medium? [laughter] Why?

21:58>> What if you could blow him over? What if you could just breathe on him and he fell?

22:01>> Yeah, he's kind of unders sized actually. [laughter] >> Yeah.

22:06>> Any anything on the Patriots weapons? Uh that's, you know, kind of a strong word, but >> it's not a great matchup for Dobs. He's

22:15like the one guy where you're like, "All right, well, you know, decently decently like mild productive player for his career, right?" Like he had like he

22:23hasn't been bad. He's but hasn't been like great. He likes to score touchdowns like multiple times in the same game, which is really cool, you know?

22:32>> Good for eight, but only like three games. [laughter] >> Yeah. Uh yeah, I'll score eight touchdowns a season, but AC a span of

22:38three games. But like he they have to kind of throw to him. The pro this not a great match up for him because he's, you

22:43know, he's playing just like 94% of snaps out wide. Out wide the chart, that's where the Raiders been real good.

22:48Uh a league low 45% catch rate to outside receiver, 7.4 yards per target is fifth. They've also been really good downfield. Only four of 16 targets to

22:58wide receivers on throws 20 more yards downfield have been completed against them this season. And that's like kind of where Dobs like all like he wins.

23:04It's in the red zone and it's downfield uh and on and outside the numbers and they are really good at that. But I will

23:11say like if you're in a bind like this dude like is kind of needed this week.

23:14So like route participation and volume should be here. Well, it'll be there to an extent, but like dude, >> um, >> he's need been needed this, I guess,

23:24this >> he's been needed the whole time.

23:26He's had a peak of 76% round participation and then Hollands got hurt in game last week. He was at 45% round

23:34participation and Dobs was at 69%. It's a season low. So, like I don't think he'll get things won't get any worse.

23:42But honestly, do it's interesting where I kind of think he's been like and I I took some doubs. So, this is, you know,

23:50I'm to blame here as much as anyone, but I'm like, this guy was a bad pick. Like, he he is not. And then when I took him,

23:56I took him more in baseball, uh, not not drafted in manage leagues, but, you know, as a baseball pick, you're like,

24:02well, you know, he'll probably score some touchdowns. It's gonna be highowered offense and all that. The offense doesn't look that highowered,

24:07unfortunately. Maybe we're trying in the right direction there, but like if AJ Brown's healthy, you know, like I I just I don't think I'm not sure what's going

24:16on with Doabs, but like they don't seem that enamored with him, right?

24:21>> Um he did have a 28% targets per out run last week. They do like really need him to step up, but having him on the field

24:30sub 70% last week was really weird. Um I don't think it gets worse now because Hollands is out. I do think it gets

24:37better, but it only gets a ton better. I think I would be surprised at this point if he was had 86% rap participation. I'd

24:43be like, whoa. And ahead of the season, I would that would have just been like a normal game, I would have thought. So,

24:48>> it might just be their thing going back to last year, too, cuz that's how they handled their receivers last year. Um,

24:54we probably won't have clarity until AJ Brown comes back if that's a real thing because I >> I don't think they'll do that with

24:58Brown. That would be >> because Brown won't be like >> he's going to be pissed [laughter] off if they do that.

25:03>> You're reading a lot of books. So, we read a lot of books on the side of the line. [laughter] >> Um, yeah, I mean it's it is reminiscent

25:10of what they were doing with Diggs last year. However, Diggs was playing out of the slot >> consistently high target rate and Dobs

25:16has to really earn, you know, more downfield, you know, because the other thing with Dobs is he is playing outside as you were talking about that's not

25:23great for this matchup. His ADTS have been 22.3, 19.3, 12.5, and 14.6. So, you know, he is providing real value to the

25:31offense as like a field stretcher who can earn targets. But then again, I don't understand why he's not out there like constantly. You'd think that's like

25:38a 95% route participation type of guy.

25:40But, uh, one thing that was happening last week was Eli Raridan was back and Hunter Henry's round participation actually rose from week three when

25:51Raridan didn't play. So, that 45% round participation was more that they were operating in 12 personnel. But then Kyle Williams was still in kind of his he

25:59runs like a quarter to like he was at 44% participation week three, 26% last week, but still you know a role that

26:07kind of mattered. Eftton Chisum was at 43%. Demario Douglas dropped from 75 to 50 last week. So there's this kind of

26:14like a bunch of dudes are all playing thing going on. This is really hard. Dos is really the only guy that you can

26:22count on and you can't even count on him that much. So, um, Henry I I think has some appeal here. Um, I have him as a

26:31high-end tight end, too. But, >> yeah.

26:34>> Yeah. All right.

26:35>> Really, really rough. Yeah. I mean, Deamaro Douglas you can make a uh, at least a matchup argument for, but like

26:40you said, these guys are all cutting into each other. So, it's like, you know, trying to find one of these guys,

26:45it's like whack them. I don't think there's like with any of the guys, I feel like they're all just like usable

26:50dudes if like you're in a bind, but like there's not high ceilings here.

26:54I wouldn't play like I'd rather play like Jeremy Bernard with with Pitman out.

27:00>> Yeah, I would rather as well.

27:02>> So, I just I I might play like Isaac Tesla over Douglas. It's just like, hey, he's playing the cardinal.

27:09>> Yeah, I would I would do I would do Tesla, too. Those two I would >> Yeah. Yeah. So, yeah, it's it's you

27:15probably have another option. I just think like Douglas's rout participation dropping like that with Chisum having an awesome play and playing more like

27:22that's that makes me nervous. Um all right, Bears at Packers. Uh Tyson Beant pretty solid last week. Not actually as good as

27:32Case Keenum was in efficiency, but but good enough. 4.7 EPA. Uh he'll get another start here. And going against a Packers defense that looks pretty bad,

27:42like straight up not good against the run, not good against the pass. um you know it'll be it'll be better later

27:48hopefully, but um right now not not so good. So um I think kind of looks like we could see the Bears do their thing

27:58again. DeAndre Swift is going to play.

28:01Kyle Manungai is out. So let's start there where we could be looking at um consolidation in the back field. Swift has a lot of upside in this matchup, I

28:11would say.

28:12>> Oh yeah. Yeah. Big time. What a what a what a ride we've been on since Sunday.

28:15You know, it looked like Swift got benched and it was slash hurt and then Manung guy got all these carries. Turns

28:20out maybe giving him all those carries was what got him hurt. Uh [laughter] you know cuz he had like a you know he's

28:26got turf toe and it's like all right is there going to be kind of more of a split moving forward and then he's hurt

28:30and he's out. Now Swift is just back into kind of like this this like huge role cuz >> but hurt the whole time.

28:38>> That's like his mo is like he's always dealing with something. He's not even on the injury report. So like we say like

28:44he's like he's just always constantly perpetually dealing with stuff, but he's they didn't even list him on Friday on injury report. So he looks good to go.

28:51And we saw last year when he missed because we didn't see Manangi miss at the end of the year, but when Swift

28:58missed, it was like Manongi got like a a huge workload. Um and I would assume that probably happens, you know, here.

29:04you might like he's like Roshan Johnson will get some carries, but I would assume that this is going to be like a a

29:10huge jump in terms of uh backfield opportunity for Swift and then you've put him in this type of game environment and against this defense that's going to

29:18be missing Edin Cooper. Um it's a really good spot. The Bears are um number one in the NFL on outside zone runs. Green

29:26Bay has already faced 45 outside zone runs. They have six yards per carry on those. Um, so it's like this is a spot

29:33where I think Swift can get loaded up and he's a good pass catcher, too. So this is a really good spot. He's he's an

29:38RB1, but you feel good about it.

29:42>> Yeah, he he's like firmly, you know, kind of mid-range locked in RB1. Um, with with Manungi out in the passing

29:50game, you know, as I was mentioned, the the Packers, the big issue for them right now is they don't have a pass

29:57rush. So, when they get Parsons back later in the year, hopefully that changes. And they've been solid in coverage. Um, but they're 24th in

30:06pressure rate, 18th in quick pressure rate. So, not being able to get to the passer has been a huge problem. And

30:11that's leading to a poor pass defense overall, 17th in DVO, 24th in both EPA and success rate. And they, you know,

30:19they now get this incredibly well-designed um Bears passing game. Bears running a ton of play action, which the Packers have been pretty good against, but

30:28they're still going to do it. Uh, and they're, you know, they're going to be doing it where they have DeAndre Swift

30:34probably running fairly efficiently against this really poor Packers run defense. Packers have been a bit of a runfunnel. Um, Bears very much focused

30:43on the running game first, minus 3% passive expected, trying to dictate the run from ahead. Obviously with Tyson Beant, it's going to be even more the

30:50case. So, this kind of sets up pretty cleanly for the Bears to run the run the offense through the run game and then

30:58play action off of that and kind of have the the passing game be a bit of a counter punch um when the defense

31:03overplays the run. I would note Colston Loveland coming off a 35% targets per route run last week. That's obviously really good news given that, you know,

31:14he'd been at six, seven, and 15% to start the season. Um, nice to see him come alive there, but also with Beijing,

31:22you know, maybe he's got a connection going with Bean a little bit. So, that's that's encouraging. Um, I have him as a

31:30tight end one this week. Do you think the Bears will be able to put up points?

31:33Khalif Raymond uh dropped from 74% round participation in week three to 56%. So, he stepped back a little bit, which is

31:40kind of nice assuming you're not trying to play Khalif Raymond. Um, but Luther Burton was only at 69% route participation. Um, he had a 24% targets

31:52per out run. He is earning targets at a really nice rate, but some of those are screens and it's like he's 16th

32:00percentile and open score. He's got a low A dot and limited route participation playing primarily from the slot. It's like it does it is getting

32:10like a little bit like fancy Khalil Shakir kind of kind of at this point like you know what I mean like

32:15>> this is the this the show who can we compare to Khil Shakir [laughter] Burton now it's not that bad but it's

32:23like not that much better you know especially with Beijing in there so um I don't know what are your thoughts on on

32:30the weapons here Roma Duna as you mentioned locked into a ton of rout participation 2.94 yards per hour last year >> plays on all the heavy stuff So, he had

32:38some good uh good connection with >> with Beijing as well, though only had 19% targets per route run, which isn't all that great. He's at 15% for the

32:48season. And Odun is also 22nd percentile and open score. So, kind of looking like, you know, one of these biggerbodied downfield threats, but not

32:56generating a ton of separation kind of >> kind of vibe. So, uh yeah. Does anyone stand out here on the Bears uh receiving

33:04weapons? Yeah, I wrote this up too that there could be like underlying efficiency here for the passing game because the one good running team that

33:11the Packers faced was the Falcons and when they were running the ball like Penn was over 10 yards for pass attempt

33:18in that game. So, it's like if they're if the like, you know, Swift is running well, that can open some things up

33:22because the other guys that they face, Jaylen Daniels, uh, Carson Wentz, Gino Smith, none of those teams like really they they ran okay in those games, but

33:30like they weren't running like I believe the like we've seen the Bear like the Bears are a team that are capable of

33:34running on like a Falcons like level against them.

33:37>> Uh, and you know, if we even get like a proxy of that, that's going to open up some potential efficiency. So, I think

33:43there could be some efficiency here. The Packers also like they they run almost like a almost like exclusively like too high defense. Uh they the Bears just

33:53face the Jets who are number five and like similar structure. And I think that's why also like a guy like Coulson

34:00Lovelin, you know, was um involved. You know, I think he he benefits the most from like a lot of those coverages. We

34:06also saw the Bears because they were running the ball and if we do think they're going to run the ball well, uh

34:10they ran season high rates of 12 personnel and 13 personnel on Sunday, which is what clapping to Cle. It's it was a reminder that Clemond's role is

34:18like really fragile. Like I know like this is why he's like a floor-based flex because they only used 11 personnel in

34:2528% of their snaps last week. And if they're not going to play 11 personnel, guess who's not playing, >> right? Cleaymond. Well, thankfully the

34:33answer was KE F Raymond because I wasn't 100% sure. [laughter] >> I don't and I don't believe we've seen the last of Clement at all, but like it

34:41just shows you how volatile like his actual role in the offense is. Like he's contingent on like them playing in games

34:47where like cuz his two best games this year, they were over 11 personnel and 50% both of them.

34:52>> So like he's tied to that like how much 11 personnel are we running, right?

34:57Packers also been really good to slot receivers this year. They've been really bad on the outside, but interesting enough that ties in like they haven't

35:04been the the like great against tight ends. But I do think Lovelin um sets up again to have like a us he takes a step

35:10of faith obviously because he's still underperformed on his opportunity like is that expectation? Uh he was still below it.

35:17>> So like you're not like really bullish and say like oh Lovelin's back. I'm like in a hurry to like throw him into

35:22lineups. But he is a guy like I kind of put like more as like a higher tight end two this week and like could be like a

35:28floor-based tight end one. If you can get a touchdown out of that then like that's okay. But I do think his usage is

35:32going to be relatively static to what it was last week because the defense lines up for from a matchup stance for him to

35:38be involved. And I think they're going to be running the ball too. So I do think it sets up for him to be involved

35:43again.

35:45>> Yeah, that's encouraging. And I mean, he's not going to be like this consistent, you know, engine of the offense. Would it it looked like maybe

35:53that that was possible? He certainly drafted with with that being the upside case >> um you know, in the summer.

36:00>> I I just don't think we're getting that.

36:01But also, >> it looked like he was not even a part of the offense through the first three weeks. And that's like that can't be

36:08true. So, we're we're get I think we're starting he's kind of going to be more of like a matchup based weapon that Ben

36:13Johnson can just like >> hit teams over the head with in the right um circumstances. And >> you know, last week was one of those

36:20where he could have had an insane game like 35% targets per route run, 72% route participation. Like that could have been 25 30 PPR points um if it had

36:30gone his way. 11.7 unfortunately, but he's going to have other games like that. And I do think this this could be

36:37another uh another strong outing based on what you're saying with the matchup stuff.

36:42>> Um all right, on the Packers side, can Matt Laflur resist a Bears run defense that ranks 29th in DVOA, 27th in

36:50EPA, and 25th in success rate and is going to have a a Bears team with a back quarterback probably going to be run

36:56heavy against them. You know, like if he had a decent offensive line and Josh Jacobs back there, like you know, he's

37:03just running the hell out of the ball here.

37:05But obviously things have gone really poorly for the Packers on the ground.

37:10They they probably should just attack through the air here, play to their own strengths. Will they?

37:16>> Probably not. But [laughter] uh they I mean they had a real weird dynamic and I wonder if it stays, you

37:23know, static this week because the Bears are actually getting a pass rush. Um which coming into this season I was like, how are the Bears going to get a

37:29pass rush? Like they don't have really good pass rushers. They've been blitzing a lot and their blitzes are actually been working and we just saw the Packers

37:36face a blitz heavy opponent. So maybe uh they're going to keep this uh game plan in place here. So last week Jordan Love

37:44actually had a season high completion rate. He was pressured on a season low 13% as drop backs. Didn't take a sack.

37:49And we were wondering like what they were going to change because we all saw like that Thursday game before like it

37:53was you know they they got to they got to calibrate something like you can't just ask Jordan Love to go back there

37:57and get killed. uh he threw the ball as fast as time uh yeah >> from the snap last week he had 70% of

38:04his throws within two and a half uh seconds from the snap but he also threw the ball behind the line of scrimmage at

38:1037% of his throws. That was the highest rate. He only threw to wide receivers 46.7% of the time. The first three weeks

38:16it was 73% 76% and 66%.

38:20Um, so like all these things kind of changed where like they they also ran their highest rates of 12 and 13

38:27personnel of the season last week. So they their change was, hey, if we're not going to fix the offensive line and

38:33we're going to keep throwing stuff at the wall, Kevin Zetler is going to start at right guard for them this week. Uh,

38:37if we can't fix it, like what do we do?

38:39Well, what if we just get the ball out and throw it short? And like that was their answer at least short term. And I

38:44if they might do it again because like I said, the Bears are blitzing a lot and they are getting a pass rush. So, if

38:49that's static here, that's kind of a a bummer, right? Because a couple things come into play. Like, one, >> Christian Watson was the guy hurt by the

38:58most by this. He was still really efficient, over two yards per out run last week, but season low, 73% route participation. He uh was only on the

39:07field for 75% of the drop backs in 12 personnel and only 40% in the 13 personnel snaps. Those were all Matthew

39:13Golder. Uh, and then the other thing that sucks about this, so like if you're going to do this, this would be really

39:19cool if you had a healthy Tucker Craft because like Tucker Craft is like a yak god, but like we haven't seen him be

39:26that guy since injury. So like if we were doing that, so like they they did pump a lot of these short targets to

39:32Tucker Craft last week, but >> 30% targets per out run, >> but he he he doesn't have that he hasn't had the yak bounce back like we've

39:39talked about like KD like KD looks like fully bounced.

39:42>> Crazy back. Yeah, >> Craft still looks like he's like movementwise trying to work his way back. Uh, and maybe that's something

39:50that happens like uh is just something that like one day it's just like one Sunday it's like, oh, he's back and like

39:55so be it. But like it stinks because you know he's doing the same thing that Craft is low A dot, but he's not getting

40:00the, you know, 10 yards of Yak that he was getting last year. He's down to 6.1 yards per after the catch this year. So,

40:07it's kind of it's kind of a little bit of a drain on the offensive totality because he's not healthy, too. If

40:12they're going to operate this way, >> yeah, it's a shame they don't have Jaden Reed because he would be a guy they

40:18could use in this capacity um quite effectively. And it's a shame they don't have a real weapon out of the backfield.

40:24I mean, Josh Jacobs wouldn't even really be this guy. You know, you'd want a more dynamic receiver. for Jacobs is kind of

40:30fine as a receiver, but if you actually had, you know, someone who could I mean like a Kenny Gainwell or something would

40:36would like really help this team. He's not really doing much in Tampa Bay, maybe they can go get him. Um, but you

40:42know, Craft 1.4 AOT last week. Uh, they they were trying to use him as that Yak guy and when he was healthy last year,

40:50he was insanely good at that. Um, but he hasn't he's he's got just a 6.1 yards per target, which is >> real bad. So, he just hasn't been the

41:00same dude yet. Hopefully, that changes.

41:02I mean, I think he's going to have upside, you know, uh, with a lot of volume. He probably he probably gets a

41:09lot of volume again this week. The receiver stuff is at least condensed.

41:13Uh, it is just all Christian Watson and Golden. 23% targets per out run for Watson this year. 21% target share.

41:21Golden even better. 25% targets per out run, 25% target share. So, you know, I think I have them as both low-end wide

41:28receiver twos this week. Um, it's like overall I don't love this game environment, but you know, you could have as long as

41:37like they can protect Love, you know, he can he can be good here, but I don't know how much volume we ultimately get

41:45as I was, you know, as we talked about like it's going to be tempting for them to to run the ball too much here. Um,

41:51>> and Gretch talks about this all the time. You know, how this uh this modern NFL has literally turned into like a

41:57game of possessions.

41:59>> And we've seen that again Thursday night. You know, uh the Bucks have that 11minute drive in the first quarter and

42:04like it just completely changes the dynamic of a game. Well, the Bears have been have we have two games of the Bears

42:09doing this now.

42:10>> Uh where they're just like killing the other team. They the Bears right now they have 14 drives this year where

42:16they've run 10 or more plays. uh by far the most in the NFL through four weeks and like those are the things that just

42:23like nuke a game environment like because then you because a typical NFL like we're right around 10 possessions per game and the Bears are turning it

42:31into like eight possessions per team like a game and it's like ah that sucks like we're losing two possessions a game.

42:38>> Yeah. I have some of teams do that and like I think if you're the Bucks and you're playing Jaylen Daniels like

42:45that's a really smart thing to do >> but you know with a team like the Bears I'm like are you sure that's good like

42:51you're the better team.

42:52>> This also isn't how you set the points record >> you want more if you're the better team you want a large s

42:59>> you want the ball more. Yes.

43:01>> Yeah. Like if you have a coin that's weighted 65% to heads >> you don't want to flip it once.

43:08>> Right.

43:09might lose on one talk by a big sample.

43:12>> You're going to win. So anyway, >> yeah, it's how you lose. It's how you lose games you're supposed to win.

43:17>> Yeah, exactly. Which which Matt Laflur knows a lot about.

43:21>> Um >> on the other side, >> do you have any interest in like the backfield here or or No, >> I don't. Yeah.

43:27>> No, it's because I don't know if they can run. Both guys are bad. They they tried they were they straight up started

43:33Chris Brooks and he started effectively and they got hurt last week and like Marshon Lloyd has been awful running the ball. So it feels like at best like even

43:42if this worked it would be compartmentalized where like Caleb's Johnson's an early down grinder and like Marshon Lloyd's the receiving back. But

43:48like it's not a good situation to even have it be like a split back field.

43:52>> I think that might be what it is though.

43:54Uh Lloyd's been getting targeted at a decent rate and he's got 1.26 26 yards per hour. And so it's kind of like a

44:00dump off option. I I prefer him, but it's pretty ugly. Uh all right, Texans at Titans. Um another team that I think

44:09will be looking to establish the run here. The Texans obviously 0 and4. Um and they're now facing a Titans offense that's going to I think struggle against

44:20this Texans defense. And the Titans, although they're not that bad against the run, very middling run defense, opponents averaging a 49% pass rate

44:30against them. 49%. They're they're running more than they're passing against the Titans with a minus 10% pass rate expected, a minus 5% shift, so

44:40they're shifting 5% to the run.

44:41>> And then the slowest pace in the NFL against the Titans as well, just grinding it out. Um, no fear of the

44:50Titans offense and just, you know, kind of dictating the run, getting this one over with kind of kind of style with

44:56with the Titans here. Um, I I I think that the Texans will kind of look at this game as like an opportunity to kind

45:03of get back to like their identity, right? Defense, being able to run the ball. That said, they should be able to

45:10pass the ball against Titans. Pass defense has been very poor.

45:14>> Oh, yeah. But it's kind of a game it sets up as like Alpha Nico Collins, maybe a get rights bite for for David

45:20Montgomery. Um, but not like an offense that I want to get that deep into because the volume is is a major

45:26concern. Is that how you read it as well?

45:28>> Yeah. Uh, the Texans have thrown the ball over pass rate expectations two games and it was the Bengals and Cowboys, like you know, teams that are

45:36going to push them and and throw the ball and like we just don't have that on the other side. I do believe like

45:42because that's what stopped me from like putting like Stout as like a trust or like a lock like in a locked in

45:46streamer. I think he's playable because when they are throwing I think he's gonna be really efficient. It's just it's just you worry about like the top

45:52down volume from like a ceiling expectation. But I I do think he's he is streamable and like if you played him

45:57last week I think he's playable again.

45:59>> Um >> I thought uh you know getting Nico Collins back obviously his splits are great. Nick uh Kaylee actually ran a ton

46:05of motion last week which was encouraging like uh anytime Shroud's had like access to like play action preset motion he's been really good. He's

46:12actually played pretty well this year in general. Um but like you said it's just it's just a numbers game if they he

46:17might throw 24 passes. They also might just not be able to run and maybe they abandoned it. It was just like I said

46:23we've only seen them throw the ball over expectations twice and it was literally two teams that pushed them like on the

46:29other side.

46:30I honestly think that like treating this kind of like a preseason plus game and just being like we're going to figure

46:38out the run game like let's try let's you know let's let's try running left with power let's try running you know

46:45right with wide zone you know like what like let's find some plays that we're feeling good about kind of getting a

46:50rhythm on like you're not going to have I don't think too much trouble with with the Titans offense and if you do need to

46:59drop back and pass, he should be pretty effective. So, I I'm normally like, man, it sucks when good offenses kind of slam

47:05their head into the wall by running too much. But, I actually think from the text the Texans perspective, this probably is a spot where you want to see

47:11if you can kind of get the run game going. Um, and then like also maybe just figure out like, okay, David Montgomery

47:17is like not working. Like, maybe we maybe we lean on Woody Marks as the lead runner. Like, figure figure it out. This

47:23is a figure it out spot for the Texans.

47:27Uh for the Titans, Carnell Tate popped up with a back injury. Do we have anything on him?

47:33>> He's going to play. He >> is going to play. Okay, good.

47:36>> It's funny. You and I have just been talking about like our consistent theme is like this guy's going to break out,

47:39but like maybe he won't because it's so bad. But he had to break out. We got the breakout last week.

47:44>> We got the breakout last week. It wasn't like I prefer like slightly more fantasy points with with my breakout. 23.5

47:51points is is great, but >> he had a 36% targets for run. 4.39 yards per round.

47:58>> He did fumble twice, too.

48:00>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, it wasn't an ideal breakout. Um, and now he gets the Texans with uh, you know,

48:09>> Cam Ward is playing like okay sometimes, but he's been over four weeks he's been 22nd percentile in EPA per play twice.

48:18That was against the Jets and Giants.

48:20Really does not like playing the New York teams, I guess. And then the Eagles and Ravens, he was 58th and 49th

48:26percentile. Like if he's going to live in that range, Tate will Tate can can get there. But like Ward is ranging

48:32between like unplayably bad to like eh [laughter] >> wasn't terrible. Like I would, you know, it's just a tough range of outcomes on

48:43the quarterback side to then be heading into this matchup. I will though though say that the Texans have not been like

48:50nearly as good as the reputation against the pass this year. They're allowing explosive passes at the highest rate.

48:56Now they have played Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott. So, you know, that's a pretty massive caveat there, but they're not getting pressure at a

49:05super high rate, 14th in pressure rate, 24th in quick pressure rate. Um, you know, not been great in coverage.

49:10They're fourth in dropback success rate, but they're allowing big plays. So they're 24th in DBA and 25th >> in EPA. So

49:18>> kind of, you know, in some ways you could see Cam Ward like kind of getting there like with like a 12th percentile

49:25success rate, but like middling again in efficiency because he connects on some bigger plays. Like it could be that kind of game. I think more likely he just

49:32stinks here.

49:34>> Yeah, I think this is a get-right spot.

49:35I also really appreciate this dynamic of Demo Ryan saying he was taking over defensive play calling after his new defensive coordinator faced Joe Burrow,

49:44Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen, and he was like, [laughter] I'm going to take over this. Look, look what I did. Look what I

49:48did. Remember Dan Campbell did this last year and everyone gave Dan Campbell credit. It was like against the Commanders. They're like, oh my god, Dan

49:54Campbell fixed this. And like the rest of the year was like the Lions were like it was just kind of like, well, like did

49:59anything really change? Like not really.

50:02Uh but I so I like this I like this move by Diko Ryan. Uh cuz you know he's probably feeling a little bit

50:07>> smart move.

50:08>> He's they're 0 and4. He's like oh [ __ ] man they're like they got me man like I'm going to take over play like they're

50:14going to be like yeah we're going to dust Cam Ward like it'll be cool and like look at yeah defense is aggressive

50:18like buy me some time.

50:20>> I would do the same thing man. You're the head coach.

50:23>> It's all optics baby.

50:25>> You call plays against game ward if you want. [laughter] >> Yeah man. I love it. I love this move.

50:31Uh, he was terrible in both games against the Texans last year, too. Like you said, maybe it's not static. If the

50:36Texans are bad defensively again here, too, I will start to like acquies that they maybe aren't as good.

50:42>> Yeah, I still think that like they're going to figure this thing out defensively. It, like you said, it's the big plays that are killing them. It's

50:48third downs. They're It's third downs and splash plays that are just really killing this pass defense. And I've I will say though like when you go back to

50:57last week like you can't let a player get 20 targets on you and like you not change like eventually you have to like

51:03alter the game plan and like you just cannot let them like >> it wasn't like the Cowboys are doing all these dynamic things with CD Lamb last

51:10week like so you just like eventually like maybe that's why too like he's taking over too. It's just like dude like you you just can't allow that to

51:18happen as defense as a defense like especially when a guy gets a 21 targets like it's just unacceptable behavior.

51:24I agree. Yeah. Um, from the Titans perspective, I think the way this game goes well is that they

51:34they have courage basically because the Texans defense is allowing big plays, you know, these high leverage situations. They haven't been great.

51:44It's obviously been against really good quarterbacks for the most part. you know, Daniel Jones wasn't wasn't so great against them, but the other three

51:49guys. Um, honestly, Burrow wasn't great against them either, but Allen and Prescott were quite efficient.

51:55>> Um, but the Texans have been really good against the run. Uh, they're sixth in rushing DVOA, 12th in EPA, 12th in

52:03success rate. So, this is not a spot where you want to just, you know, get really conservative and run the ball.

52:10Um, you know, in part because your defense isn't actually very good. So, you're going to allow points.

52:17My concern here is the Titans have they've kind of been in two modes. Like against the Jets, 6% pass over expected,

52:25minus 7% on first and 10 though. So, you know, kind of like somewhat of a neutral sort of thing even though they had a a

52:32lean to the pass overall.

52:34>> Ravens minus 1% POE, 0% on first and 10.

52:37So, very balanced. But then against the Eagles and Giants, now Giants was bad weather, but still minus 20% passive expected against the Eagles. Minus 22%

52:46on first and 10. They almost won that game, but they like immediately were like, "We're ahead. Like, let's like they were I mean, and I understand why

52:54they're like, let's limit possessions.

52:56>> Let's, you know, next score wins. Is that you guys cool with that kind of kind of thing?" And then the Giants, bad

53:02weather, Ward not playing well, minus 12% minus 16% on first and 10. I I do have some concerns about how like

53:12willing they are to pass on this defense, which is what they need to do to win. I think I don't think they can

53:17run their way there given that the Texans have been really good against the run. Tony Pard's actually been >> really efficient. He's he's running back

53:24one and rush yards over expected success rate. Uh running back 15 and rush yards over expected per game. He's he's not

53:31scoring touchdowns, but he's got four 4.6 yards per carry. He's running really efficiently between the 20s.

53:37You know, you could maybe be tempted to to just give it to Pard a bunch and have him, you know, try to get you to I think

53:45their implied team total is like 15 point. You get your 15 points. You know, I think they could do that with a

53:49runheavy game plan probably. But if they actually want to win this game, I think they do need to put it on Cam Ward. I I

53:56I understand why they're hesitant to do that, though.

54:00>> I'm surprised Tony Pard's not on the Packers yet. How has this happened?

54:04>> Yeah. Yeah. [laughter] They're going to trade this dude, right?

54:08Like he's gonna get traded.

54:09>> You would think. You would think. Yeah.

54:11>> But yeah, I mean there's like this is not a spot. I mean the the Texans did allow three touchdowns to Javvonte

54:16Williams. It was still 3.4 yards per carry. He didn't even have a he was 0.82 yards before contact per rush. Like

54:22we're not expecting them to just run down their throat. They said and and like I even wrote up on tape like I

54:27don't think we need to make even adjustments for the breakout because like this I think this was always kind of priced into a degree with him. was

54:34like there is upside here in terms of target share and then we're also pricing the downside of like well as quarterback

54:39also it could be bad. So I think we're just going to live through spots like this where he is going to spike because

54:43his usage is that great. We've been talking about it for four weeks like laying in like this dude's getting all this usage getting all this usage. Like

54:49>> I would also say like he looks really good. Like he's he's got 2.16 yards per out run playing with Cam Ward. He's 86th

54:57percentile in open score. He's his role isn't just he's not the X, right? He's the Z. we talking about?

55:03>> He plays outside, but it's a it's a more of a dynamic role. Imanor and Ridley are splitting the X stuff, which those guys

55:10don't really done some stuff, but he's not playing a full-time role. So, yeah, I think Tate's Tate to me like he is who

55:18we were hoping he he was, but it it is >> going to be a bit boom bust. They they do get I was looking through I'm like,

55:25okay, they get they get the Lions later, they get the Cowboys. Um, so you know, there's gonna be fun games with Carninal

55:34Tate. Uh, this one won't be so fun though, I don't think.

55:37>> But even that was like that that game came against the Ravens, so he's you're kind of in a mode where like and

55:42there'll be like you said the obvious spots you'll be more bullish like Lions and stuff, but he's kind of a guy like

55:46on his opportunity you kind of just have to live with like you have to live with the ups and downs because you don't want

55:53to get Q playing the matchup game because like last week would have been like like well are they going to really

55:57pass on the Ravens? you just have to hope the role pulls through. But I think you he's also a guy that like you're

56:02just inherently like you have to accept living with in in your lineup as being a volatile player >> from points perspective

56:09>> for fantasy point. What I would also say is we're four games into his NFL career and he's already you know posting elite

56:16efficiency firmly established as the number one target as an outside traditional wide receiver. not really getting a ton of, you know, like screen kind of

56:25manufacturer stuff like straight up earning targets downfield and dominating targets. So, I just I do think that there's actually additional upside

56:32beyond this where it's like, oh, like this is one of the guys, you know, when a player does this is I'm not saying he

56:39definitely is going to be one of the guys, but >> guys who are the guys look like this through four games,

56:45>> you know. So, this is this is a really bullish start and it doesn't have to kind of end here as far as the upside

56:50goes. I am not a believer in Cam Ward, but you know, a great a great receiver can make a subpar quarterback better.

57:00You know, you can get to where Ward's actually like, oh, maybe he's salvageable kind of thing. But really, it's just because Tate's a superstar.

57:08So, that's my hope with Tate. I don't have a ton of hope even, you know, saying that for this week.

57:16>> Yeah. But I have him as uh kind of a high-end wide receiver three type of guy just as a bet on the profile.

57:23>> Yeah. Saying that's like basically what I said like you're gonna have to live with it. Like he's going to occupy that

57:27spot in your roster kind of where you where we drafted him to be honest too.

57:30Like that's where his AD that's where his ADP was. I said I was like we don't need to go crazy. Like it feels like

57:34everything's been priced in to this point. [laughter] >> Well, you know, [snorts] and this is against the Texans. So, if you're

57:40telling me he's basically like at his ADP against the Texans, >> okay, you know, they'll be above ADP when he gets good matchups.

57:47>> Um, all right. Bengals at Dolphins.

57:50>> Uh, let's talk about the Bengals.

57:56Let's talk about the Bengals. Uh, all right. So, it looks like we're going to get Chase here. This is the big

58:01question. Um, does Chase suit up for this game? Do you think he ends up playing? I'm kind of thinking he does. It seems to be like uh

58:10usually if you're already practicing in full like and you're going through protocol like he's checked all the boxes to this point. Um we don't see guys

58:18typically get cleared uh in a week but we did have Marvin Harrison Junior last year get a concussion and get cleared

58:24and he was on the same like trajectory.

58:25So usually if you are doing that full practice and just like following through protocol and there are no symptoms like it is tracking that uh he'll be cleared

58:33to play and he's a guy that like inversely from T. Higgins, like if he's cleared to play, like he's cleared to

58:39play. Like Higgins, they could be like, "Well, he could play, but like he clearly has like a multi-week injury, but like where it's like he could try to

58:46play through it." So, and and we've done this with T. Higgins before. And the Bengals hopefully would have religion on this, too, because they've done it

58:52multiple times where T. Higgins comes out, he tries the play, he lasts two drives, and he's like, "Ah, you know what? I am a little more aggravated than

59:01I thought." Like, you're playing the Dolphins, you're on buy next week. like it seems like the most opportune spot to just have T. Higgins with this injury

59:09just not play.

59:10>> Especially if Chase is out, you know, you kind of need one of these guys. You don't even really need both.

59:16>> Um >> I don't even think they need either to be honest. But if Chase, but Chase clearing concussion protocol is a lot

59:22different than a guy that has an abductor groin injury playing through it.

59:27>> Yeah. No, completely agree. which sounds crazy because it's a brain but like you know he clear if he checks all the boxes

59:33clears the >> protocol if he's cleared he's cleared right yes >> that's my understanding so >> um >> Bengals last week Chase plays 17% raw

59:42participation T Higgins um you know goes off but dealing with this this abductor strain as well uh 78% raw participation

59:51for Higgins Bengals passed 82% of the time so I do think if we get Jamar Chase, when I talk when I say like you

60:00only need one of them, to me I'm like, are the Bengals going to be the Bengals?

60:04Are they actually going to drop back a bunch, run the offense through Joe Burrow? I think if they have Chase and

60:09not Higgins, they absolutely will be. I think if they have Higgins and not Chase, we literally just saw them last week and play exactly like that. So, you

60:16know, I think we can kind of count on them to do their thing here, meaning be pass heavy, be aggressive, try to put up

60:24points as long as Chase clears the protocol. And it it looks like it's trending that way. Dolphins are terrible against the pass 29th percent 20 ranked

60:3229th sorry in passing DBA EPA and then the 28th in success rate and we've seen you know Brock Pery um Patrick Mahomes

60:42really put up really strong efficiency against them. Um this is not a runfunnel. You look at the way teams are playing the Dolphins, they are not just

60:52leaning on the run the way we talked about with the Texans. Um they're so bad against the pass >> the teams are actually passing against a

61:01terrible team which like it kind of >> you know that is unusual and I think really says just how vulnerable this

61:09team is through the air but the Bengals are a team that you know in this kind of matchup you you'd wonder if they they

61:16kind of play it like that anyway. And so, um, I do think provided Chase plays, we can kind of count on the Bengals to

61:24play like the Bengals here, which is really exciting for for Chase. I think I'm going to be higher on Burrow in the

61:31rankings than, you know, he'll generally be projected. And, um, you know, I'm probably a little bit less high on Chase Brown. Like, I don't think this team is

61:39going to want to just go run heavy and grind out the win. like I think they can put up points through the air um and

61:46kind of do their their typical thing like we've seen uh you know other teams that have played the Dolphins do.

61:54The Dolphins are really really poor where Joe Burrow thrives to like these the shallow intermediate areas uh throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage

62:03they're allowing a 91% completion rate uh 67 of 74 passes. They've also allowed they're 28th in touchdown rate on those throws, too. Like Burrow getting the

62:13ball out just uh on throws within 10 yards line of scrimmage.

62:17>> Within 10 yards. Okay.

62:18>> Yeah. And it's all Burrow. Like he's he has one of the lowest rates of throws 10 or more yards downfield. He gets the

62:22ball out quick. Um so like he's he's just going to thrive like in these quarter the quarterbacks that the Dolphins have faced that operate like

62:29with this type of efficiency like Perie.

62:32Um I would even say like Kurt Cousins to a degree in week one. Like this is just like they're like I could see a game

62:39where Burrow throws like five or fewer incompletions in this game. Like 100%.

62:44>> Yeah, I could see that too.

62:45>> And like Grant, he might not throw the ball 40 times. So like he I just needs to be really hyper efficient. I think he

62:50would have been hyper efficient without either of these guys. Obviously having one or both is massive. I think Chase Brown is in a decent spot though. He's

62:57had a >> He is in a very good schedule.

62:59>> Yeah, he is in a really good spot. I think if you've had Chase Brown to this point, like you might be feeling like a

63:03little disappointed. But if you look at the schedule, like they faced three top 10 teams in points allowed to running backs this year that are like outside of

63:11the games against the Bengals also were dominant against running backs. Like the Texans, the Jaguars, and the Buccaneers.

63:18His only one like underperformance was against Pittsburgh. And like Pittsburgh at least at least isn't like a team that like also is like a dog walk defense

63:24either. Um but he's the RB11 and expected opportunity this season. I think things finally loosen up a bit uh for him. Like the Dolphins have allowed

63:33three RB1 scoring weeks so far in the season. The one week they didn't, they still allowed 128 total yards to Aaron

63:39Jones. So, it feels like compared to what we've had the first four weeks, he's in a lot better spot than than he's

63:45been in. Um and even just missing one of these guys does elevate his target share, too, >> I think. So, yeah. Yeah, because even

63:53when Chase left the field last week, he was targeted on what, 32% of his routes last week. Um, >> he had a 21% target share last week.

64:00>> Yeah, it does help him with just one of these guys being out to being active as a pass catcher, especially because of

64:05where the Dolphins are giving up their production near the line of scrimmage like in Burrow like said like so I'm a

64:12little more bullish than I've been at least these first four weeks. He's been kind of a high volume RB2 for me the

64:16first four weeks and I have him as like a lowend I have him as like a lower RB1 this week.

64:20>> I actually have him as a mid-range RB1.

64:21It's I was seeing the, you know, it seemed like he was going to maybe be projected as kind of a high-end guy and

64:28I was like not sure like and you know in my rankings I'm like do I where do I put him relative to to DeAndre Swift and I

64:35think like I think Swift is ahead. Um, it's close, but I'd I'd rather play Swift, I think. But it's it is close.

64:45And I do think the the upside for for Brown is that he just catches a ton of balls and then, you know, he does have

64:54touchdown equity, which >> and we haven't and it hasn't happened yet.

64:57>> And it hasn't happened yet. So, like >> you he could catch six balls and score two touchdowns, >> you know, and he's like, "Oh, that was

65:05pretty good play." and still only rush for like 65 yards like >> Yeah. Yeah. [laughter] So, I don't want to overstate it. I just don't think he's

65:11like an insane jam, but I do the the the ceiling here is obvious. It it's it's very obvious, you know. Um but yeah, I I

65:21think as far as like the engine of the offense, I do think that will still be Chase even with the Bengals like

65:30probably easily winning this game. Um, you know, again, assuming that Chase plays, if Chase doesn't play, then I think you like the floor for Brown just

65:39is like kind of nuts. Like he's they have to they have to go through him. Um, >> so >> Dolphins side, um, you know, we've seen

65:50uh the Bengals defense, they started out pretty well, but recently Aaron Rogers 70th percentile in EPA play, Trevor Lawrence 73rd percentile. So, the last

66:00couple quarterbacks have gotten there against them.

66:03>> It's probably like a middling pass defense.

66:06>> Uh, unfortunately, Malik Willis has been extremely extremely bad and the Dolphins aren't willing to pass. They're minus 9% pass rate or expected this year.

66:17>> Uh, they're fully hiding their passing game. They have a 70% expected pass rate. So, you know, they they're in really negative game script. Only the

66:25Titans have a higher [snorts] expected pass rate this year and they're just refusing kind of like the Titans frankly, but they're just refusing to

66:33give into that negative game script um and just running the ball anyway.

66:37>> Yeah. Well, they want to have what happened last week. That's like what that's like how they feel like they can

66:41win a game is like the the thing we talked about like let's reduce possessions and hope the other team doesn't score touchdowns like the

66:47Vikings didn't. And like maybe we'll be in it. Maybe we'll be in it at the end.

66:52>> They're not playing Kyler Murray this week. Yeah, it's unfortunate.

66:59>> I mean, my my big thing with him is I say he's just not running either. Like six designed runs so far.

67:03>> Yeah.

67:04>> Like we can't even like that was the you thought we had the Konami, right? Like hey, he could suck, but if he's going to

67:09run the ball 100 times like you could be okay. You're you don't have it if it's all built on because the the thing about

67:15the Konami code like you it can't be built on all scrambles. Like you need the you need the design. You need the

67:20Justin Field [ __ ] and he doesn't have it.

67:23>> Yeah. Yeah, he's he's uh 21 scramble yards per game. It's pretty good, but only seven design rushing yards per game. So, you're you're dead on there.

67:30It's >> What do they think?

67:32>> I mean, he has the highest scramble rate. The pro So, he has this highest scramble rate, but they're not dro You

67:36can't scramble if you don't drop back.

67:38>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We dealt with this with Justin Fields last year.

67:42>> Yes.

67:42>> You know, where he couldn't even really rack up rushing yards because he's a big scramble guy.

67:47>> Yeah. 31 drop backs per game for him.

67:50That's 23rd in the league, Malik Willis.

67:51But, like I said, Yeah. So, he needs the design rushing stuff and just hasn't been part of the offense. We can't just

67:55say like they're going to turn like flip some switch or they're going to start like incorporating a bunch of designed runs at this point.

68:00>> The other thing with Willis in addition to to scrambling, he's got a 19% deep pass rate. Oh, yeah.

68:06>> 20 plus yards.

68:07>> This is him though.

68:08>> 9.6 A dot.

68:09>> Well, yeah, but I mean like >> and then he's got 3.19 time to throw.

68:14>> He could be fun. Like if if they were willing to let him throw, he could be fun. um they just they just are not

68:22which I was pretty nervous about. Yeah, >> this had a lot of Jets >> Justin Fields written written all like I

68:29was >> I didn't draft a lot of Willis. I was pretty nervous about kind of this exact outcome.

68:34>> Um you would if this if they weren't playing like this I think you could maybe talk yourself into like hey

68:41Bengals are going to push them. Bengals are a passfunnel defense. Um you know they kind of push their opponents into these types of games.

68:51But my my take is that Dolphins don't care. Dolphins are going to run the ball. [laughter] >> They don't.

68:56>> Um, so, uh, Ali Gordon, we talked about Mike Washington being kind of a boom bust, bigger back. Gordon is even bigger and

69:06even more boom bust. He's running back 57 with a 28% success rate. He's running back 42 in the rush yards over expected

69:13success rate, but he's got 11 or he's running back 11 in rush yards over expected per game. Running uh with five

69:21rush yards over expected per game there.

69:24Uh he's been like this is actually a spot where you do want a boom bust runner I think because the offense sucks

69:31so bad. Like you do need you need the guy to like occasionally just create it himself and then like when he has, you

69:39know, 40 yards on 15 carries, you're like, "Yeah, what what was I expecting? I played a Dolphins running back." Yeah.

69:48>> Like I did this to myself. So, you know, he can he can kind of have a long touchdown here and there that that can

69:54make it feel fun, but um the floor on Gordon is just truly non-existent because of his style and the offense, >> right? Yeah. And it looks like K he

70:04might catch a little bit of break here, too. Uh that Jaylen Wright uh reinjured his foot. It looks like he's questionable, but he it's the same

70:11injury he missed week three with. So, it sounds like it's a re it's an reagravation. So at least short they picked up they were

70:18the team that picked up Kron Allen. Um so maybe they're maybe they're worried that Jaylen Wright's not going to miss some time, but at least short term that

70:26would just say like hey at least he could get like a moderate share of the backfield touches short term.

70:33>> I love when the upside case for a rookie becomes maybe he'll get cut again.

70:37>> Maybe he'll get cut [laughter] again.

70:42the Dolphins getting claimed by the Dolphins was brutal, man.

70:45>> Also, that's got to be like RIP on Jarqu Hunter stocks like this whole run out like like right >> and I don't know if like people are

70:54still holding. I don't I mean I don't like I was just saying like I assume he's on dynasty rosters still somewhere

70:58like right like >> yeah he's on some dynasty rosters. Those teams are for sale though. [laughter] >> They're orphans.

71:05>> They're orphans.

71:08Uh [laughter] Malik Washington, I'll know 29% target share.

71:14>> He's consolidating volume. Chris Bell is is operating as a deep threat. Um you know, coming off, you know, a really bad

71:22game last week, but a strong game two weeks ago. Um but 85% round participation for Bell last week, so he's playing a lot. Douglas looks like

71:30he'll be out, right? So, um >> yeah, Douglas is out. They did roll him out.

71:34>> Okay. So Malik Washington and Bell are your two receivers and Washington like very kind of floor oriented like hey I'm

71:42going to get targets but he's had 22% 22% 29% and 28% targets per route run in his four games or the 29% target share

71:51for the season. He's like mostly a slot receiver but his route participation for the year is 89% which is pretty good.

71:58So, you know, he he's kind of like in that Parker Washington thing where it's like you're the slot, but you play all

72:04the time, too. So, you know, we talked about how a lot of teams are going to be hurting this week. If you had to plug in

72:12Malik Washington, you're getting something. You know, that's that's probably the most interesting part of this offense, uh, unfortunately. But, >> yeah, if you need like floor based wide

72:22receiver for production, like he's that's what he's giving you. Uh yeah, that's exactly what he's getting because the opportunity has been there like you

72:29said the routes are there. He's his area yards have been all over the map this season, but he's getting he's like they

72:35cuz like no team doesn't complete any passes and the passes they are completing are going to him.

72:40>> Right. Right. [laughter] Doulich by the way is is nothing. Uh he he was down to 50% ra participation last year and or last week and had uh no

72:50catches. Yeah, they uh they played a ton of 21 personnel last week. It was like their highest rate of the season. So,

72:57like he's the guy that just got clipped because he's a zero. And there that could change though, maybe in this matchup because we always talk about the

73:04Vikings teams have to play uh someone to stay in block.

73:08>> Mhm.

73:08>> Uh so, >> yeah, that's true. That could have really hurt.

73:11>> It could it could have flipped that just by design against Brian Flores. They played uh Will uh Kemmer and the the

73:18what's the dude's name? uh the fullback DJ something like he played a ton of he played the most he played. Um I wonder

73:25if that was by design because they just knew they needed guys for protection and that and so maybe he goes back. That

73:32does make a lot of sense.

73:32>> So maybe he goes back. I mean he still is a guy that's like in that limited range because he doesn't like he he's

73:37like always in that uh >> uh because he doesn't block like in that concaid zone a little bit but maybe a

73:42rung higher. [clears throat] But uh >> No, I agree. I think in in 14 team tight end premium leagues he's he's a viable

73:48start.

73:49No, I mean, yeah, I was just like noting that like maybe they he >> No, it's a good note actually. I could

73:54see him rebound a little bit.

73:55>> His his route his I'm not saying for fantasy rebounds, but I assume his routes could be a little higher than

74:00they were last week because of the type of player he is. Just not they were like, "Dude, we can't use you this

74:04week." Like, >> yeah, >> you're see. [laughter] >> Um, all right. Vikings at Saints. You know, Kyler Murray is playing like the

74:15type of quarterback that the Dolphins can realistically expect to beat. That's that's where that's where he's at right now. He's been he was brutal in week

74:23three. He's he wasn't as bad last week, minus 3.1 EPA last week, but he was going against the Dolphins. Like, come

74:30on. Um, >> so, you know, big question this week, does Jeff Justin Jefferson come back?

74:38Kind of seems like he will. It's right.

74:40He's Yeah, it seems like it seems like he wants to play from all the stuff he says. And then Kevin Oonnell has been

74:48kind of been like, well, we do have we are 4 and0 and we have a buy next week.

74:52But I do think the Addison injury also maybe plays a role into like them just saying like if Addison is hurt then like

74:59like we do need him like >> yeah that that's obvious that's that's pretty massive because if you're hoping for Murray to turn it around you really

75:09want Justin Jefferson in the lineup and he gets another really soft matchup here with the Saints. They they've had a a

75:16really bad pass rush and been poor in coverage. They're 26th in DVOA, 28th in EPA, and 30th in success rate against

75:24the pass, the Saints defense. Um, so that's good news, right? You get it's like, well, you get another crack at a

75:31bad defense and Justin Jefferson might be back. That's kind of your upside case. Your downside case is Christian Darasaw has a concussion left tackle.

75:38That's a big loss. Donovan Jackson uh is also a very good pass blocker. Both those guys currently ranked top 30 in in

75:45pass block grade per PFF. And he's out with a knee. So this is even with the bad Saints pass r like the downside case

75:53is you're down two of your best pass protectors and Jefferson ends up sitting >> and on one side of the field like it

75:58always sucks when you lose two guys that like play next to each other on the offensive line.

76:02>> Yeah, that's a good point.

76:05>> It's like you know cuz you could because offensive line is very much a weak league position. Like you could have

76:08four good dudes and if you have one bad dude it could wreck a play and like now we're down now we're down two guys on

76:14the same side of the field.

76:16>> It's it's not it's not great. And remember, they're also out Josh Oliver still too, who is essentially a lineman for them as well.

76:24>> Yeah. So, I mean, this is, you know, we'll get to the on the Saints side.

76:28Maybe we just talk about it now, but they they've been very volume driven.

76:32They they lead the NFL in pace. Uh the Saints offense, they have a 69% pass rate, uh second highest pass rate of the

76:41season. So, um and and they they don't even have that. They have a 2% pass rate ever expected. So, they have a 67%

76:48expected pass rate. Um, they're just like very much embracing pass heavy script, playing with playing with a ton of pace, ton of play volume overall, and

76:58then, you know, the the run game for them has been really bad. I mean, Chimera got there with touchdowns last week, but it's just very inefficient run

77:05game. They understand kind of what's going on here. And even though Tyler Shuck, like Tyler Shuck is quarterback 21 in EPA per game. He's quarterback 20

77:14in success rate. He's on this EPA chart I have, he's in this like massive jumble of quarterbacks is like really not

77:20standing out at all from an efficiency perspective. Um he's even slightly worse in EPA per play [snorts] at quarterback 23. So it it is very much volume driven,

77:30but like also so what, you know, like we this is a a productionbased game. So if we can count on the Saints to just keep

77:39playing with a ton of volume, like we'll still get there. Mhm. However, you have them going against this elite truly elite Vikings defense. So, from like a

77:50game uh environment perspective, it if the if the Vikings can't protect Kyler Murray, they have the potential to

78:00actually like this this volume juggernaut of the Saints could like come to a a screeching halt here against the Vikings defense.

78:08you know, if they're not living on efficiency, but rather volume, and then they're going against an elite defense, and then on the other side, the the

78:15Vikings are having trouble uh protecting Murray, and maybe they pivot to the run, >> like there there's a really wide range

78:23of outcomes on what this game could be because the typical Saints game has so much volume. Uh but the Saints are

78:28really bad against the run. They're dead last in DVOA, EPA, and success rate. So, this could be kind of more of like the

78:35typical Vikings game, which is a very different vibe than the typical Saints game.

78:40>> Yeah, this game is definitely has a like one of the more wider range of outcomes when I because I wrote it up as like a

78:46game to potentially even be in on for early DFS because of that, right? like people are going to respect the Vikings

78:51defense, but like what if we still do get all that play volume and we do see like the splash plays hit cuz like you

78:57know when you have these aggressive defenses like the Browns and the Vikings like the one >> like you're never going to success rate

79:03them to death but like you can hit big plays because they're that aggressive.

79:06So it's like if you're going to if you're going to have the play volume plus the big play potential there is

79:11actually like upside angles too. Um, and to while we do definitely believe the Vikings defense is real cuz we have a

79:17more than a one-year sample size of their of their defense, like they have had a light lighter run out like these

79:23last three weeks. So like Kell Moore, at least we know like even if it's going bad, he's going to keep letting Tyler

79:29Shuck take hits. Uh he's he's number two behind Jordan Love and C in QB hits this year. Um, so like Kell Moore like at

79:38least is gonna like we we can have faith in what he's going to try to do no matter what happens in this game. Uh,

79:43it's just very volatile like you said. I kind of was treating Shuck as more of like a like a volume like a high-end QB2

79:49this week than like a volume based QB1.

79:51Like that's kind of what I like I had him. I was like ah you know it might be weak. Like you don't have to bench him

79:55but like I if I had other options I'd be like a little bit more enticed. Like >> I I have him even lower than that. I was

80:01like >> like if I had CJ Stout I'd be way more into CJ Strad. Yeah. Um, but I also think when I look at Chuck versus some

80:07of these other guys, I'm like, you know, would I want to play like Jameus Winston? Like if that was an option,

80:13would I want to play Bo Knicks, Kyler Murray? Like I'm still playing Chuck over those dudes.

80:16>> I would play I think I'd play Nicks and Murray over Chuck.

80:20>> You play Kyler over him. Do you think I think I I can't play Kyler at this point anymore.

80:25>> This Flores defense is nuts.

80:27>> I know it is.

80:28>> Like >> I don't disagree.

80:31Um, the blitz rate is just like so insane. Uh, 67.9% blitz rate. Uh, the

80:39commanders are second with a 44.4% rate.

80:43You combine them with the Cowboys at 22.6, you still don't get to 67.9%. If you combine the third ranked Bucks in

80:50blitz rate with a 21st ranked Steelers, still don't get to where the Vikings are. If you combine the bottom three teams in blitz rate, still you're you're

80:58still for 14 points shy where the Vikings are. So they're just like they're doing a completely different thing than the rest of the league. Then

81:05they're also first in passing DBOA, first in EPA, first in drop back success rate, and they're fourth, second, and first against the run. So like,

81:16how do you prepare for this? How do you, you know, best this? Um, I think if you had like I'd love to see and and we will

81:27see the Lions. Um, you know, that'll be fun where you have just like a ton of you've got like guys that can be

81:35obviously G is bad against pressure, so you're going to maybe see him have some really rough plays, but you've got guys

81:42that can get the ball out quickly, too.

81:43You've got an incredible running back, you know, so on and so on. But this is a very one-dimensional offense. Like it is not going to be hard

81:51to figure out like what the Saints are going to be trying to do and you kind of put them in positions where they have to

81:56pass and then they're having to pass against this allout blitz. I I think you there's a real potential for Shuck to

82:04get exposed here is again like he's been living on vault.

82:07>> Oh yeah. [laughter] >> You know, so the floor is so low. I I do I you know I guess and the other thing

82:16is the floor is low even from the volume perspective because again like with like part of my hesitant with playing Murray

82:21over him would be like the pass protection stuff but it's like well if Murray craps out that doesn't help Shock I just I gave Kyler one shot against the

82:33Dolphins and >> maybe I have to give him one more Justin Jefferson Jefferson maybe it's one with Justin Jefferson but the do the Dolphins. I was

82:42just like >> I respect that position, but I think I am gonna give [laughter] >> What about Jordan Love? Would you play

82:52Jordan Love over over Shuck?

82:55>> Uh yeah.

82:57>> Yeah, I I I have him ranked over him as well.

82:59>> Yeah, that's where I have him though.

83:01Like that's the kind of the cut off.

83:03Oddly enough, I do have Aaron Rogers over him, too.

83:07>> I actually have him behind him, but I I get I get that. I get that.

83:11>> So, we got a wide range. We have a wide range of QB2s this week then. Uh, >> we do. I think Beeent's in that mix. I

83:17have Bean right there with Sh.

83:19>> We have a wide range of QB2 guys.

83:21>> Yeah, there's a ton of QB2ish type of dudes.

83:26>> Well, he was a guy though, like I said, like a gamers probably picked him up for his early season schedule and have just

83:30been riding him because, you know, he like you say, he's just been getting there with the volume and he's checking the boxes for the fantasy points. So

83:37it's just like you a lot of people also will look at oh Vikings like is this what do I stream him? So it's just like

83:42who do you stream him for is always the question >> right >> like what is your availability and like we can't cover every league in every

83:48scenario.

83:50>> Olive is also a big guy to talk about here pops up on the injury report yesterday. Um what what are we looking

83:58at him? What what's the latest on a lava deal?

84:00>> Sounds like he's going to play.

84:02>> Okay.

84:02>> Um and if he's playing I mean what can you do? like his volume is just and even if you reduce the volume like because

84:08he's got the dual edge like he's getting a ton of volume and has all the the the target share stuff like that's the

84:14cocktail that makes like a lot of fantasy points. Uh so even if you do reduce one he still has the other.

84:21>> Yeah. And my my read on this was like the when you get into this kind of matchup it's like your Devon Veles that

84:29get like really nuked.

84:31>> Yes. Correct.

84:32>> You know like Devon has 1.24 24 yards per route run but is averaging 13.9 PPR points per game.

84:38>> He leaves the NFL in routes run.

84:40>> Yeah. That's just like he's just playing more games.

84:44>> That's exactly what it is. He's just played more games than the other dudes.

84:47>> Yeah. So like that this might be half a game. Normally you get one and a half.

84:52So Olive, you know, he's got a 29% target share, 2.73 yards per outr run.

84:57He's 80th percentile on open score.

84:59Vele's 12th. like one of these guys is purely a product of just a lot of routes and another guy is a star.

85:05>> So I think you play the star still. Um >> and they're gonna be getting Tyson back here um couple weeks it sounds like.

85:12Hopefully for the you know Tyson you never know how long it'll be.

85:15>> But uh I would imagine that would be so fun. I would it sounds like he's his trajectory is like on on pace at least

85:24>> Tyson's going to come back in like week eight and still play a full 17 games worth of routes.

85:30>> He could honestly see what >> this offense is going to do for us, man.

85:33>> Yeah. I mean I I wrote them up as this year's Cardinals. That's how I was I wrote them up as like this this is like

85:39the last year's Arizona team. Like >> it's a great call.

85:43>> They can't run. They're on like their fourth running back and maybe it changes like when Tyson and Han come back. Uh

85:49maybe this offense has some more stability. But you know them losing Kelvin Banks was massive. The Aim Richards uh in two games that dude's

85:58allowed 14 pressures. It's like he's been getting smoked. So I mean they said they just had they're a bad defense. It

86:05it's very much like last year's Cardinals. When you have a guy like a L like we had Trey McBride last year. when

86:11you have a good player in like that type of volume role, [snorts] it's it's like hard. Like they're gonna score a lot of

86:16fantasy points. Like just is it just is what it is.

86:19>> 100%. Um >> thoughts on Jawan Johnson here. The the note you made about Doulich has me thinking about Jawan Johnson, another

86:27guy who's not really there to block. I wonder if his raw participation dropped at 73% for the year.

86:33>> Yeah, that'll be something to keep tabs on. Maybe we get more CJ Donaldson, Noah Fant, uh to to combat all the blitzes.

86:42Uh I would assume >> Donald the the blitz pickup guy.

86:45>> Yeah, he's like kind of like their fullback heft he hefty dude.

86:48>> He looked okay when he was running at the end of the the game. I was like, "Okay, maybe maybe we need some more CJ

86:54Donaldson in there."

86:56>> Yeah, I mean they and listen, I love Chimera, but it's like that's thing.

86:59What are you gonna do? Like we were just at that we're just [laughter] there.

87:01We're just at that point of the career, man. Like it is what it is. Yeah.

87:05>> I mean, you didn't have that many carries last week. He was a >> No, you got the two touchdowns. You had

87:09the two touchdowns. That was it. And I mean, yeah, you have the two touchdown game that's like not even an RB1 game.

87:14That's always a red flag.

87:16>> That is a huge red flag. [laughter] >> The David Montgomery three touchdown.

87:21This was helpful but not amazing. Red flag. Yeah, this could be a long season.

87:26If this wasn't even a massive game >> cuz it's tough to even count on running back catches against the Vikings because

87:32they have to pass protect.

87:34>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's the floor on this is really low. But I I do think you just play it through a is

87:43kind of the way I'd be looking at the Saints. Um I would note uh just back to the Viking side, Hawinson coming off a

87:51really strong game. You do have Addison banged up. Hawkson had a 41% targets per out run last week. Uh Addison faced a

88:00ton of double coverage, 37% double coverage rate. Hawinson was just at 16%.

88:04Really picked up the slack. So showed a really good connection with Murray. Um depending on what's going on with Addison and Jefferson, he he is somewhat

88:12interesting. And then Oh yeah, Aaron Aaron Jones. Um >> we should probably talk about him as well.

88:18>> We get one more week defense.

88:20>> One more week of supervis. They don't trust any of the other dudes and and they're on buy next week and then Jordan

88:25Mason comes back. They got one more spot to just give this dude a bunch of touches. And I'm pretty sure they're

88:30going to cuz they haven't shown any reluctance of giving him a shitload of touches to this point. Even against the Dolphins, dude, 24 of 28 backfield

88:37touches like and and the Saints to be fair have faced like some really good running backs. They've only played four games though. They've allowed six top 20

88:46scoring running backs. They've allowed four RB1 scoring running backs.

88:50Like it's a it's not great, man. It's not going well for your Saints.

88:56>> That's one where you're like sitting down with the defensive coordinator like how have we allowed six running backs in four games to get here?

89:05>> Yeah, man. We only played four games and and if if one of these guys is out, whether it be Addison or Jefferson,

89:11we've seen his targets have been way up there the last two weeks, too.

89:14>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um that's a that's a great point. 25 and 22% target shares over the last two weeks for John. It is

89:21interesting because he had 81% of snaps against the Bears drops to 80%. His carry share drops from 82 to 74%.

89:28They're like being prudent, but his expected points jumped from 10.6 to 7.1 17.4 and then same dynamic last week.

89:35Snaps dropped from 80 to 73, carry from 74 to 65% and then his expected point workload was uh season high 21.2 points.

89:43So, they're they're giving him all the stuff that matters and they're throwing to him a bunch. Um, which yeah, if Addison's not playing or not right, uh,

89:53I would expect him to see plenty of work again. So, he's like these types of plays like kind of they make me a little

90:00uncomfortable where it's like, well, how is Aaron Jones not going to just get a ton? And it's like it it does feel just

90:06kind of more floor- based, you know?

90:07It's it's >> Yeah. Yeah, he absolutely is. And, uh, in season long that obviously matters. I will say from me and Hyo talked about

90:13him from a DFS lens too and it felt like there we were more into other running backs this week especially in his price

90:19range from that he just felt like a really safe like cash gameplay and then like and we liked the upside of like a

90:26you know Jaylen Warren with Rico Dow a lot more uh stuff like that like guys in that in that range um when we were

90:32walking through it with him >> I'm similar yeah he really is more of a bet on the role he's you know He's He's kind of in that

90:42Chimera phase as well.

90:43>> Yeah. He needs to roll in the match up.

90:44Obviously, if you get two touchdowns, it's going to work out really it's going to look really good.

90:48>> Yeah.

90:48>> Yeah.

90:49>> Um All right. Browns at Jets. Deshun Watson's coming off three pretty solid games and uh you know gets gets a

90:57defense that started out looking better but has actually been really vulnerable over the last couple weeks. Um he's had uh 81st percentile and 77 79th

91:09percentile uh sorry Goff and Tyson Begent over the last two weeks against the Jets uh defense but 81st and 79th percentile in EPA per play. So Jets are

91:19actually not that great against the pass I don't think. Um Browns don't have a high implied point total here but I like

91:27kind of how it sets up for the weapons.

91:28Like I think Casey Conpion, >> Harold Fannon, and Denzel Boston are all set up fairly well here.

91:35>> Conpsion and Boston had 100% round participation last week and Fannon was at 95%.

91:42>> Yeah, love all these guys uh in in these spots in context of, you know, loving these guys, this offense uh just for the

91:49opportunities they're getting. They're they're young, exciting players.

91:52Conceptually young to me, he has at least a 20% target share in every game this season. And we started out like the

91:57first two weeks it was like all Mickey Mouse [ __ ] like he would come in and get just like some stuff at the line of

92:02scrimmage and these last two games he's playing actual wide receiver and it's a little more exciting. The uh the area yards we would love to be a little bit

92:09higher but he's always going to have that the in his in his portfolio but uh they did throw to him a little more

92:15downfield last week which was encouraging. Watson missed him on one two, but eight and nine targets the past two games. And um he's a guy that I

92:23think is he looks budding uh to to have like maybe not like a super breakout because the touchdown stuff will always

92:29be a thing with him, but definitely a guy that I I am like more interested in saying like this guy is being

92:35undervalued at this point right now by the community.

92:39>> Concepts.

92:40>> Yeah.

92:41>> Yeah. I I agree. I think he's it's taken a little longer um than Boston. Boston was like immediately full-time routes

92:49and earning targets downfield and you know starting to get in the box score, you know, he had three uh points, three

92:58uh fantasy scores of like what 12.9 or higher.

93:02>> Yeah. Yeah.

93:03>> Um so useful points are like their expected points are like neck and neck though.

93:10>> Yeah. Yeah, and I think Conception was drafted first and actually is like the more fantasy friendly profile is I think

93:16a better prospect.

93:18>> It's just Yeah, Boston Boston's connected on the stuff that isn't as static.

93:23>> Yeah, but Conpsion is the dude where it's like he's going to I think more predictably earn targets. He's got he's

93:29got eight oats this year of 7, 1.8, 5.3, and 7.1. Boston's been at 29, 9.4, 14.5, and 22.3.

93:38That 9.4 before was against the Bucks and they were blitzing a lot and and I think they used him a little bit

93:43differently which is cool to see. But I do think as Conception ramps up, you kind of have Boston as like the

93:49downfield guy. He's going to be he's going to have to earn his targets a little bit more in a real way where

93:54Conception's doing some of that. He's also getting some some of the Mickey Mouse stuff. Like some Mickey Mouse stuff is cool.

94:00>> Yeah. Yeah.

94:00>> You know, just don't don't have >> You just want the whole plane built out of it.

94:04>> Exactly. So yeah. And then and then Harold Fannon up to 95% round participation. Like he's got so much tougher target competition than he had

94:13last year, which is, you know, not ideal, but the offense is is better. Um, so it's not like all bad. Um, but, you

94:22know, it does hurt Fannon's outlook, but overall, I'm just excited about this offense having truly three weapons, like three guys who are in fulltime, like not

94:32leaving the field. Like 95% round participation for a tight end is nuts.

94:36And then 100% is is rare even at wide receiver. So >> yeah. Yeah.

94:40>> I like what Monin's doing here. He's just like here's the three guys that matter. They're going to play all the

94:44time.

94:45>> And then Quinnon Judkins is starting to see more and more work. Um he has had his his carry share last week was 63%

94:53which was a season high. He had a 21% target share which was a season high.

94:58They're starting to really throw to him now. and he has been really good as a receiver. 1.8 yards per route run.

95:05That's running back seven. He ranks running back five in ESPN's receiver rating. So, he's starting to flash as like a good a good receiver. And take

95:13what Monin's doing with the guys that are downfield receivers and you're it's like I'm going to play these guys and they're going to play all the time. I'm

95:20starting to get optimistic that Judkins starts to get used more as a true threeown back. Maybe it's more like Chase Brownish where it's like he's not

95:28technically there all the time, but like he's he's getting used, you know, in the receiving game the way you want um a,

95:37you know, a true starting running back to get used as. So, I I kind of like Judkins here. I kind of like the the

95:43weapons. I'm not like crazy about this game environment. Um, but I just I think this is a an offense with like four

95:53straight up good flex eligible players and against a defense that's not very good.

96:00>> Yeah, Judkins needed this big time because he because the rushing efficiency we just can't count on in this offense at this point. And like

96:08maybe there's a point in his career that that changes, but like it's they're just such a bad running team uh at this

96:13structure. But he had no like receiving insulation at all. So he like was stuck as like a touchdown like based RB3. And

96:20if you can just get like this receiving work as just like a bed of it just like I said it's some insulation. It can move

96:26him into at least being like a volume based RB2 uh instead of a guy where you're like damn if this dude doesn't

96:30score a touchdown like I am fooar like just suck like and that like you know like that's like the the promising thing

96:37that we've seen from him. We would like the routes to be like a little more static because we don't count on guys

96:41that like have like 40% target per rates like very often but he has two of those games. It's just it just might be a

96:47little more inconsistent. Uh but we would love to just see that flatten out a little bit because that's what he needs because we're just not going to

96:52count on the rushing um efficiency at any point here. But we can probably get a little more volume here because it's

96:58another game where the Browns uh you know, even being road dogs, uh it's a tighter spread. They should be able to

97:03hang and he should be able to get touches.

97:06>> Yeah, this has a pretty low total, but I >> kind of like the over in this game. Like I could see that I could see these teams

97:14pushing each other and being competitive. Um you know the the Jets side of this they get a Browns defense that's been okay. They lose Mason Graham

97:24though. Um >> yeah it's a big deal.

97:27>> Yeah. So I don't know. I mean Trevor Lawrence was awesome against the Browns since then. Baker Mayfield was really bad. Bryce Young pretty bad. Aaron

97:35Rogers was actually decent last week.

97:3861st percentile in EP paper play from Rogers. So, it's it's kind of a middlingish Browns defense, I would say.

97:45Um, they are also like not great against the run. 21st in DBA, 26th in EPA, 27th in success rate. We're going to see a

97:54ton of Braille and Allen here. I think the Jets will, you know, probably have a lean to the run, but they're minus 2%

98:01pass rate over expected this year, plus 4% on first and 10. Last year, they were minus 8% pass rate over expected. We

98:08talked about teams trying to like suck possessions out of games, limit possessions. The Jets aren't really doing that. They're more of like a

98:14balanced team with the lean to the run where, you know, before they were kind of doing the Arthur Smith thing of like

98:21what if we each had six possessions and went home early kind of it just kills games. I don't think they're really here

98:27trying to kill games. They they're trying to they're trying to score points. I think they have a philosophy that is built around, you know, a

98:34balanced approach in trying to do that.

98:37But Gino Smith's played pretty well this year. He hasn't been great, but he's he's been fine. You know, Garrett Wilson is being Garrett Wilson. Um Kenyan Sadi

98:47looks like he's a decent enough number two option coming off a bad game last week, but still at 22% targets per out

98:52run. Uh he's at 2.01 yards per out run for the season. So the Jets, I think even without Bree Hall, even without

99:00Adai Mitchell and Omar Cooper, like they they can be okay here. So, this is a spot where I could see these teams

99:08pushing each other a bit.

99:10>> Yeah, Browns will give up passing yardage because, you know, like the Vikings, you know, that they are hyperaggressive in their own way, a

99:17different way, but you know, they that leads to shot plays. You know, when you when you ask your corners always to win

99:22one-on-one, like eventually like the offense is going to make one-on-one plays too, and you will give up, you know, big plays. So, there will be some

99:29opportunities in here for some shot plays. Gino has like a super high pressure to sack rate right now. So, it could be a game where like he has good

99:36yardage and like still also is like performing like bad from an EPA stance because he's just eating sacks too. Uh, which is fun. But like you when I wrote

99:44this game like the guy that stood out was Brilen Allen because he kind of flew under the radar obviously because they

99:49ran 32 plays last week. Uh, the fewest that they've run in the Super Bowl era.

99:54Uh, and like we just can't count on that to be kind of static. But dude, 100% of the backfield opportunities, 94% of

100:00snaps. I came in like kind of saying like, "All right, well, Breeze Hall is out." Like Isaiah Davis will pick up

100:05some of this combo stuff, right? And like dude played two offensive snaps.

100:09>> Uh granted, like I said, out of 32, but like they had he wasn't a part of their plan at all, like even, you know, even

100:16in the second half when they were losing when they got the ball. Um and Cleveland, highest rate of explosive runs so far allowed this year. Mason

100:23Graham. They faced 40 backfield runs without Mason Graham on the field this year and they've allowed 4.9 yards per carry. I went back to 2025 and they

100:30faced 115 backfield runs without Mason Graham on the field and they allowed five and a half yards per carry on those. So we got a guy as a home

100:37favorite potentially has what we we won't say 100% in the backfield opportunities but by by large >> he had 100% of the team opportunity

100:46because you know Smith doesn't run. So you can juice you can juice that a little bit if you just say team.

100:51>> Yeah. Yeah. We say team. Yeah, but even if we lower that, like it's they've given us a signal it's going to be

100:56really high. Uh so, and against a team that's vulnerable to explosive runs, like I know he disappointed a lot of people that probably played him last

101:04week, but I generally would just like say like, dude, the team ran 32 plays sometimes like you just run into something stupid happening.

101:12>> And the Bears have a pretty good defense. You know, this is this is now >> especially now what we know about the

101:17Panthers. like you you go back to week one and like >> but what we know about the Panthers at this point, our priors have changed on

101:25their offense >> 100%. Um yeah, so the Browns, they're not like a terrible defense, but they're not as strong as the Bears. Um and and

101:34then yeah, I mean hopefully the the Brown this game could be like Vegas could be right here. This >> it could be 2017 or something.

101:42>> Yeah, for sure. For sure. But it there's kind of like, hey, there's a bunch of good players playing each other and the

101:47defenses aren't great. The quarterbacks aren't aren't great either, but they're not terrible. You know, Watson has been kind of fine. You know, like

101:57I'm not I didn't expect him to be fine, but uh currently he's running he's quarterback 17 in EPA per game and

102:05quarterback 13 in success rate. you know, it's like you can work with that against a against a kind of mediocre to

102:12bad defense. Probably bad really. Uh, and then Gino Smith is quarterback 20 in EPA per game and quarterback 23 in success.

102:19>> I mean, the Browns figured the Browns kind of figured it out at least a little bit. Was just like, dude, they are

102:23handholding the [ __ ] out of him. I mean, it's funny. He has so he he has one of the highest completion rates in the NFL.

102:30sixth in completion rate, but he's actually below expected completion rate because his expected completion rate is like seven. [laughter] He's averaging just over what, six

102:40yards, area yards per attempt. Uh uh they're just not they're just like saying, "Dude, we're not going to ask you to be the player you work." So,

102:48obviously, you can't like that just like not in their best possibility. But, can you bus drive some [ __ ] We got good

102:52young players. Can you at least just not it up?

102:56>> Yeah. And and you know, it's funny. So after week one, that's not how it looked. It looked like he was going to

103:02hold the ball forever and just chuck it deep and they were like, "That's not going to work, dude."

103:07>> That's I give their staff some credit.

103:09Both s both sides of the staff I give credit because defensively they played like a ton of zone week one and I think

103:15they they were like scared of the Trevor Lawrence matchup and Trevor Lawrence buzzsaw him and they were like, "Well, if we're going to get buzzawed,

103:20like let's at least lose the way like we built the team." And then they've just been like so they've been playing just

103:25like a shitload of man coverage and a hyperaggressive defense since, right?

103:29And then the same thing on offense like they tried to like that let Deshun Watson drop back and play like we've

103:34seen him the last you know three years and change because he missed last year whoever since he joined the Browns and

103:39they were like dude this can't work.

103:41Let's just have him get the ball out and like we've got good we actually have talent. Like let's get get the ball to

103:47these guys and let them do work.

103:50>> Yeah. No, and it's it's working. It's funny though cuz I like wrote it up like you look at his profile and it's like

103:56he's got a 6.6 A dot you know he's he's allowing pressure at really high rate like they PFF charts like who's

104:03responsible for the ch pressure and he's it's him a lot of the time um and you know he's he's still holding the ball

104:11like a decent amount so he's like kind of doing some stuff where you're like okay you're taking on risk and not

104:16really for that much reward. So, he still looks like kind of a frustrating like ceiling limiting type of quarterback, >> but like this is still way better than

104:24the alternative.

104:25>> Yeah. I mean, the >> basically being like Malik Willis kind of thing, you know?

104:29>> Yeah. He's still leaving throws like especially the downfield throws. Uh he's 13 of 27 on throws 10 or more yards

104:35downfield. Uh which is 21st in the league. You have that play on Thursday night like that play to Fannon where like Fannon is just naked and like dude

104:42he's not even in >> that was brutal, man. not even in the vicinity of like it to be a catchable target like because he still ha he still

104:49is one of the lowest guys in an accurate throw rate. He's 21st in that. So it's like they are maxing this out I think to

104:55the best thing they can do. Um and then it also gives me like I said I I actually have come away these first

105:01month of the season like again like not to the Raiders degree levels but I'm like I think they hired the right guys

105:06like they're like the coaching staff is making they're making this a better situation than it could be.

105:11>> I agree. I think they're doing what they can right now. Um, all right, let's talk Colt Steelers. Uh, another, you know,

105:21not the best quarterback play here either. Uh, we, let's talk Steelers first where, uh, they do seem very willing to pass the ball and Aaron

105:33Rogers has played better over the last two games. He was 25th and then fifth percentile in EPA play against the Falcons and Patriots, but then 70th and

105:4261st against the Bengals and Browns. And the Steelers have a 70% pass rate this year, highest in the league. Their pass

105:51rates have been 72, 70, 66, and 70. So they they're very consistent uh in in how they're approaching things. This looks like, you know, Mike McCarthy,

106:01Aaron Rogers, they're they're trying to pass more. And the other thing is Aaron Rogers is passing deep a lot more uh

106:08certainly a lot more than last year. 14% deep pass rate, 9.2 AOT. So it's like this offense, it's not efficient. He's

106:17he's quarterback 33 in EPA per game, minus 2.2 EPA per game, 45% success rate. That's quarterback 27. But it's like volume honestly like on the EPA

106:27chart I have, he's right next to Cam Ward. So he's actually below Cam Ward.

106:32So, it's like what kind of was talking about with the Titans before, like if they wanted to make this fun, they could

106:36make this fun. You know, throw deep, pass a lot, and and that's kind of what the Steelers are doing. They're like,

106:43"We aren't going to be efficient, but we're just going to pass a lot." And, uh, you know, it's kind of workingish.

106:52Um, I prefer it to the alternative. I'll say that.

106:55>> Yeah. And I think there's a reason why there's uh been from the UPM director some volatility. though they are facing

107:01the most man coverage in the league.

107:03Every team that has faced them since week one has run a higher rate of man coverage against them than what they've

107:08run against everyone else. Like they just don't >> believe in the receivers are going to beat them. And I think Rogers at this

107:14point in his career, Rogers has he diagnosed defenses, but when you watch the Steelers, you can see like Rogers isn't going through like a lot of

107:22progression. like he's deciding where he's going with the football like but pre- snap and some of these just like aren't like act like it's just like the

107:29like there was a a sequence in last week's game where like dude he threw like three uncutable targets in a row to

107:34Darnell Washington where it was just like this is where I'm going with the ball but like I don't really feel that

107:38comment like yeah [laughter] got that >> but yeah they just don't have guys that are like winning against man coverage and it used to be early career DK Metaf

107:47was a dude that destroyed man coverage the last couple years he's really kind of taken a step back in that department.

107:53He's also faced a lot of good quarterbacks to be fair. Christian Gonzalez, DJ Turner, Denzel Ward. He's also going to get Sauce Gardner this

108:00week. Well, the Colts already play a ton of man coverage anyways. They're third in the NFL. So, I think we're going to

108:05see that relatively probably be something that's static here >> uh for them. But I think from a Rogers perspective, like he's like kind of like

108:13a poor man Shuck in a way because you're just get he's 42 42 drop backs per game.

108:18you're getting that you're not getting any rushing or like any fun stuff like Chuck will kind of give you like a

108:23scramble here and there and like do some stuff but this >> and we don't have an a which is a shame

108:27>> and we don't have an a uh but he's facing a defense that will is a little bit vulnerable into giving up big plays

108:34and they give up plays in the middle of the field and the Steelers at least have a couple guys I think that can make some

108:37plays in this game. So I have him as like a high like volume based QB2 um in in this in this matchup. This game has

108:45like some rain and stuff in the forecast too. So just something to keep an eye on. Colts run defense is pretty weak. Uh

108:5127th in DVA, 23rd in EPA, 23rd in success rate. Uh what's the latest with doubt? It seemed like >> questionable. So we have to take this.

109:00There'll be a Saturday night chef tweet I'm assert. I'm assuming, right? Like when Shfter lets us know officially who's playing like the next day because

109:10>> you know, do you there's been so many reagravations, right? You just don't want to see a guy reagravate. like get healthy, man. Just

109:19>> I don't want to talk. I We have uh Jaylen Warren. Uh so we have a I'm in a main event team with like I do with like

109:24JJ and Evan and them and we >> we had pick 101. So I we took Gibbs and obviously the philosophy was just like

109:31we're going to throw whatever at RB2 with Gibbs. We're going to hammer wide receiver and we got Jaylen Warren as our

109:36RB2. Like so we're like every Sunday we're just like never let Rico Donald touch the ball again. Never let him touch the ball again cuz dude it's night

109:44and day. like what we saw from D like I mean Jaylen Warren is so electric with the ball. Uh just I just want this to

109:52keep going.

109:54>> It's a little echollesque, isn't it?

109:57>> Yeah. Well, he was always like a hyperefficient player and like teams just kind of want to find excuses like put this dude into committee. It's like

110:04just play him. Just play him.

110:05>> Just play him.

110:06>> Just play. The other thing I don't get about it is like he his center of gravity is so low.

110:12>> Yeah. Well, he's a big dude when you bring up the Eckler comp, but like he's like 215 like >> Yeah. Well, that's true, but I mean

110:19Eckler was actually really good at the goal line. You know, kind of the ability to jump over he was a unit, dude. Like

110:25he for being a like light from a weight size like sub 200 lb. Like we all seen like the workout videos of Eckler. Like

110:31he was a totally he was a rock, dude.

110:33>> Yeah. So it just so Warren right now he's running back two in the rush yards over expected success rate, running back

110:4016 in the EPA success rate. So he's he's been quite good in both. 75th percentile in the EPA success rate. So he's been

110:46very consistent, but he's running back five in rush yards over expected per game, running back six in breakaway yards per game, running back six elusive

110:52rating. He's breaking a ton of tackles.

110:54He's got 1.49 yards per out run. He's running back four in the ESPN receiver rating. Like give this guy the ball.

111:01Stop [ __ ] around and, you know, pretending like it's a split backfield.

111:05My hope is even if D plays that they'll still have Warren as like a clear starter, but >> well, they did have the quote though

111:12this week. Uh, let me see it. Give you official who made the actual quote. Mike McCarthy made the quote. Damn it. So, I

111:19was like, he said he still envisions it.

111:21It'll be a one-two punch.

111:22>> God damn it. You know what this is? If this happened three more weeks, if D just missed three more games, it would

111:30be over. They would never go back, >> right? But it's it's like one of the you see this all the time where if it's like

111:38two games then they like it's like amnesia like well we don't even know what would happen if we just gave the

111:44whole backfield over to Jaylen Warren like yes you do >> we do we do know that'd be amazing really cool um but yeah so hopefully I

111:53am with you I would love to see >> Rico at least take one more week off if not several but unfortunately it feels

112:00like this week get healthy for 2027 seven.

112:03>> I mean, Dao before he got hurt had 65 total yards on 19 touches. Like, dude, it's so bad. Everything every like, pick

112:11a metric. He's way worse than Warren.

112:16>> You know, it's a small sample, but like literally was awful. 20% success rate.

112:23Warren is at 46%. This is half half his success [laughter] rate.

112:29So, yeah.

112:31Anyway, if Warren play if it's not if I mean I have Warren reasonably high assuming D will play pulling him up. Uh

112:42>> where did Warren get?

112:43>> Yeah, I haven't ranked D yet because I was waiting.

112:45>> Yeah, I have running running back 13 right now. I pulled out the guys who who already played but um yeah, I've got him

112:51as you know kind of an RB2 um style dude. But I mean, if if DA was ruled out, where would you have Jaylen

113:02Warren?

113:03>> Uh, yeah, I am sixth because I just haven't I'm waiting.

113:06>> Oh. Oh, you Yeah, you have D.

113:08>> I'm just waiting for them to tell me D's playing. [laughter] I I just refuse to believe it. Maybe I'm trying to manifest it.

113:14>> I think he is. [laughter] I think >> I've been on the Jaylen Warren ride the entire time and I'm telling you, they're

113:22trying to trying to manifest it. You don't win like the Jaylen Warren experience is not a pleasant one. Like you get you you're

113:30remind you you get enough opportunity to remind you that like you are correct.

113:35This guy's a star, >> but then it'll never happen.

113:39>> You're not allowed to have this. You're not >> You're not allowed to pay off like you should. So D's playing this week. Um

113:46>> yeah, it's like it was like Yeah. The girl you liked in like high school or college and like she would like for a

113:51while like would entertain it. It's like, but you got you.

113:53>> She broke up with her boyfriend.

113:55>> Yeah, you do. [laughter] >> You just saw a picture of them together.

113:59Like, oh, I was at the ball and I >> You sat next to her in class. It's like she she she talks to you. She engages

114:06with you. Like, you're like, "All right, does this my Am I in now? Am I in?"

114:10>> No, you were never in. You were never in.

114:13>> Well, I mean, it was a fun Saturday. You had a fun, [laughter] but >> yeah, >> it's over now.

114:21>> [laughter] >> pain.

114:25>> So, all right, Colts, where you at on the Colts?

114:28>> I do want to say the one interesting guy on uh Steelers side is Roman Wilson.

114:33>> Yeah. Yeah. Honestly, I agree with you because Pitman's out. Wilson um when when Pitman was out in week two, played

114:41with Jeremy Bernard playing 85% participation, Wilson was at 91%.

114:46>> Um so, you're going to see a lot of both of them this week.

114:49Wilson over the last two weeks targets prop runs of 37 and 28%. And then yards props of 3.16 and 4.11.

114:57>> He's the only guy beating man coverage right now. The only dude that's >> deep targets too. 20.3 21.2 A dots. He's

115:05he's the he's the deep threat. I mean it's that it's a little Parker Washingtonesque in that way where he's the deep slot guy, right? Um

115:14>> I'm going to start comparing everyone to Parker Washington now.

115:16>> That's what we'll We're Cle Shakir and Park Washington get both ends of the spectrum.

115:19>> They're two different types of slots. I think it's sort of helpful. [laughter] >> Yeah, absolutely.

115:25>> Wilson had 51 and then 40% round participation over the last two weeks.

115:29Now, he he was banged up a little bit in at the end of the game last week. I mean, maybe he would have finished in

115:35the fif, you know, 50ish if he if he didn't, you know, leave a bit for um I think it was some time in the fourth

115:40quarter he missed. Either way, uh, he's in a a part-time role with Pitman in, but Pitman's out. So, I I agree. I mean,

115:48Bernard is going to see more work, too, and is >> Yep.

115:51>> sort of interesting as a dart throw, but I I have Wilson as a wide receiver five.

115:54I'm I'm with you that he's >> he's interesting here.

115:57>> Yeah, I'm a little bit higher this week just because uh of the matchup like Colts are top 10 against outside

116:03receivers in like every metric, but terrible against slot receivers. This is the one guy beating man coverage. You've got Sauce Gardner to occupy DK Metaf.

116:10Like it feels like this is a spot uh for him to because he's he's had exactly six targets in every game and I feel like

116:17this would be a spot maybe he gets like eight maybe a little more.

116:20>> Yeah.

116:21>> But yeah, so I'm a >> big play guy with in this role.

116:24>> Yeah. I miss like a wide receiver like upside wide receiver four flex but um >> Yeah.

116:28>> Yeah. It's a but similar similar range.

116:30But he was a guy that when I was right up the I was like he stood out a little bit from a matchup perspective and then

116:35once Pitman was rolled out. It was like okay we got like all now we've got like the the the 90% route rate with the

116:40matchup uh we could we could actually have a usable player here. [sighs] >> Yeah. Kind of tier the way I tier guys

116:47out is like more about like kind of like the idea like I think Wilson I have a wide receiver 44. So like my wide

116:54receiver five start kind of early.

116:56>> Yeah. Yeah. That's fine. Yeah. Yeah. I get it. Yeah. More expectation based.

116:59Yeah.

116:59>> Yeah. More expectation based. Yeah. Um All right. Colts signed Daniel Jones coming off. Uh shout out to to Jacob

117:08Sanderson for just an excellent tweet on in the London game.

117:12>> He said uh >> Washington playing someone named Toziki Suvaki at quarterback. And I'm pretty sure they have the better option.

117:21>> Just an angry Colts fan.

117:25>> Yeah. when you're so my son was a Giants fan like he he the first player he loved was Victor Cruz like loved Victor Cruz

117:35>> and so he he became a Giants fan because Victor Cruz >> and when they Giants gave Daniel Jones the extension he was like I'm out he's

117:42like [ __ ] it he's like [ __ ] this guy like and I feel like that's happened to Jacob like he when Daniel Jones gets the

117:47extension with your team you're like god damn [laughter] it like >> yeah man >> he's like Victor Cruz isn't here anymore

117:56and this team gave an extension to Daniel Jones. I'm out. I'm out.

118:01>> You have to just franchise tag Daniel Jones. When Daniel Jones has a good season, you have to make him have

118:05another good season.

118:07>> The only way to go. [laughter] >> It was even a good season. It was a good half season. We didn't get to see like

118:12cuz it looked like we were starting to find the truth out and then he got hurt.

118:16It was like >> Yeah. When Daniel Jones has half a good season and tears Achilles, you do not sign him to an extension.

118:26rough, man. Brutal, man. I had a little bit of optimism for last week, too, because of the matchup and it just like,

118:31dude, we can't even count on them when it's matchup oriented.

118:36>> It, you know, the matchup was good and then they didn't really play to the matchup. Now they they it's funny

118:43because you would um >> the vibe of the offense was like that they got blown out but they blew out the

118:52Commanders because the Commanders lost their quarterback. Um and so you know I sort of defensible they ran uh they had a 56% pass rate that's 2% below expected

119:02but like you know they're playing from ahead but like also they were very much hiding >> Daniel Jones who was terrible in that

119:10game. Um, Jacob was like correct. Like he he had worse EPA than Cali McManus, minus 10.7 um, EPA last week, which is slightly

119:21worse than Cali McManus in that game.

119:24And over the the course of the season, he's now quarterback 35 with minus 3.5 EPA per game, 43% success rate. Very

119:31similar to Malik Willis in EPA per game.

119:33very similar to Jameus Winston, Justin Herbert, just above Kyler Murray below Aaron Rogers and Cam Ward. Uh it has

119:42been really bad uh so far for Jones. So I my concern here is that they're just going to hide him again. Even if the

119:52Steelers are are pass heavy on the other side, I think they just kind of try to run Jonathan Taylor. And the game, as I

120:01wrote it up, I was like, I feel like this game really just comes down to how good of a game Jonathan Taylor has. Cuz

120:07if Jonathan Taylor ripping off long runs, we're in business.

120:10>> Yes.

120:11>> But if he's grinding it out, then this becomes a slog pretty easily.

120:15>> Yeah, absolutely. This, you know, the whole offense is just basically built on how much efficiency can we get out of

120:21Jonathan Taylor. And it hasn't been hyperefficient. We you and I talked about this back in when Alec Pierce was like banged up to start the year like

120:27when they don't like no one respects the downfield. You saw this in the Washington game and that's like you talked about like all the throws like

120:34they're just shallow and it's hurt downs because his his he's running routes further downfield now and they just can't throw downfield and without Alec

120:42Pierce in the field like teams just don't respect them to be able to throw downfield. So they kind of are are

120:46loading up on Jonathan Taylor. He's luckily had three multiple touchdown games like to kind of offset this because he is he he's having this like a

120:54career low in efficiency, but he has two multiple touch or three multiple touchdown games which is pretty awesome and he's his workload is awesome still

121:01like and I know that they alleviated some of it last week but I kind of all those weird travel games I don't really

121:07I always asterisk those anyways. Um I think you know going to London and stuff could have played a role. The travel uh

121:15and then in this particular matchup we have the Steelers now without Derrick Harmon who we talked about like Mason Graham being out for the Browns. This is

121:22a big deal for him or them as well too.

121:25Like they on 52 running back runs this year without Harbon off the field. 5.1 yards per carry 15 and a half% explosion

121:32run rate. That would be higher than the Browns who are the worst team in explosion run rate for the season. So,

121:38some of this looks good on paper if they can get going here. Um, and especially if it's the weather is going to be like

121:43more of like a the Pittsburgh traditional muddy track game.

121:46>> It would seem like it's a high touchc count game for Jonathan Taylor.

121:51>> Yeah. And that could be pretty fun. Like he's been very inefficient this year as you're saying, running back 58 and rush

121:56yards over expected per game this year.

121:58Um, >> they don't have any outside threat, man.

122:00Like there's nobody that you care about.

122:02>> It's really really hurting them. like they they just cannot credibly threaten downfield um on the outside at all. Uh >> dude, what what do you think Tyler

122:12Warren's longest catches this year?

122:16>> Well, his his eight odds have been 4.8 minus one 2.5 and 3.8. So, I'll say >> nine yards.

122:23>> No, he is a 15 yer, but that's like Dude, Tyler Warren is everything. 5.7 yards per catch. Like, what?

122:30>> Wow.

122:31>> This is a gross offense, dude. like it's it it luckily has like one volume based like really awesome player. Uh but it's

122:37it's it's not a good offense.

122:40>> It's not a good offense. I don't know like what you because you know the thing that sucks for them is they signed Alec

122:46Pierce.

122:47>> Well, they had to.

122:49>> Well, but what do you do now? Right? Because if you just had franchise tagged him >> Oh, okay. Yeah, they could have

122:55franchised him. You're right. But I meant like they needed to keep him though. That's why >> they needed to keep him clear.

122:59>> I meant they needed to keep him >> clearly. But like he, you know, if he was getting surgery like way past.

123:05>> So they didn't use the franchise tag on anyone. They should have.

123:08>> Yeah. They should have franchise tagged their whole roster. But [laughter] but like they can't because if if you had Alec Pierce departing at the end of

123:18the year, then this would be like a no-brainer situation where you just trade for Brian Thomas.

123:23>> Even Harrison. Like I think Harrison would be like a credible. You don't have to throw to him.

123:28>> No. a sacrificial X. No one has ever needed a sacrificial X more >> Yep.

123:34>> than the Colts, right? Like get go get Dude, trade for Kyle Williams. Trade for Kyle Williams and just have him run.

123:41He's fast as [ __ ] [laughter] He can only run go routes and you could give him a 35% rout. Honest to God, like

123:4935% routicipation from K from Kyle Williams would seriously help this team.

123:53Like they need something.

123:54>> Yeah. Um, Laquan Treadwell right now is their deep threat. He was at 97% round participation against the Commanders and it's that's not that's not cutting it.

124:04We haven't really heard about Darius Sllayton. They did get him.

124:07>> I mean, dude, he wasn't even active last week either.

124:09>> Yeah, >> just seems like it's a very slow burn or like just maybe like cuz they he was just straight up cut from the Giants.

124:15Like maybe it's maybe like maybe Yeah, maybe even counting on anything is just wishful thinking at this point. They got to get a burner like just just a

124:24situational burner.

124:25>> And that might have been just like a Dball like looking out for his or not uh uh Dball uh uh Daniel Jones maybe like

124:33Daniel throw him a bone. Throw him a bone like we could [laughter] >> Yeah. Yeah. But until that happens like Tyler Warren's AOT is is super super

124:43shallow. His open score by the way and on an A dot of 2.3.

124:48So his open score is 11th percentile.

124:52Like that's not on if a defense is consistently taking away a guy with an ADOT two yards downfield.

125:01They don't respect you. No.

125:03>> You [laughter] know, like the only way to do that is to be like you cannot beat us over the top. So

125:11>> they can't.

125:12>> I mean because [laughter] they can't because also they're right and they can't. Um, and that's where I just to me

125:17it comes out like I don't see anything changing here. Keenan Allen's probably gonna play, but he's second percentile in open score. He's he's totally cooked.

125:25Um, downs a 63rd percentile there. He does have some talent, but kind of like Warren like I don't think Warren's open

125:33score necessarily reflects like his talent level. It's just like >> No, I don't either.

125:37>> They're able to take him away in a way that a team normally wouldn't bother, >> you know? [laughter] >> Yeah. No. No. Yeah. I always bring this

125:46up with uh Trey McBride whenever they face Seattle and like Mike McDonald's never cared about Trey McBride catching a bunch of passes. Like he's just never

125:54cared. He's like, I don't care. He's like, you know what else? What's not going to happen though is I'm not going

125:57to give up any other explo I'm not giving up any explosives. I don't care.

126:01Like [laughter] >> Yeah. Yeah.

126:03>> And the one guy I think who can overcome that is Taylor because you can stack the box against Taylor and say you're not

126:08going to beat us with Taylor and that can actually be to your detriment if he >> Yeah. Cuz if he gets the second level,

126:12you're cooked.

126:13>> You're cooked. Yeah. Now, now he just went for 70 yards. So, >> um >> Adrien Peterson like stuff, man. Like

126:20Adrien Peterson like that his whole career like you want to load the box?

126:23Well, if I get to the second level, it's an 80 yard touchdown, I'll tell you.

126:26>> Yep.

126:28>> Yeah. And Taylor can I mean Taylor can turn around that rush yards over expected stuff real quick. Real real quick. So, um,

126:36>> he's I me and Hyo talked about him being like a pretty interesting tournament pivot this week, you know, just because

126:40Gibbs is going to be so popular and there's like no Bejian, no Kenneth Walker. Uh, like he's going to get the

126:46football super high still.

126:48>> Yeah. Yeah. Oh, yeah. And we've seen like the multiple touchdown stuff just still exist even in a bad environment.

126:53>> Yeah. Um, all right, let's talk Giants at Commanders.

126:58Jameus Winston coming off a better performance last week against the Cardinals. Um, he now gets a commander's defense. It's not great either, but not

127:07as bad as as the Cardinals defense, I would say.

127:10>> Yeah. I mean, this is all we wanted from Jameus. I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and uh to a degree.

127:16Like I wasn't like bullish on everything, but I'm like, "Hey, they played he came in cold the one game where he was clearly coming off of the

127:22soccer tour where like he was just like having fun." Uh, and then they were like, "Oh, you have to play quarterback

127:27again." He's like, "Oh shit." I wasn't expecting to play quarterback this early, if at all. And then so he was completely overwhelmed. Then they played

127:33like that weird game in the rain. So I was like all right like let's give it some time. Let's give him one more shot

127:38this week against the Cardinals who are objectively terrible. And he was in a good Jamus Winston way cuz he he threw

127:44two terrible interceptions. But he he gave us what we wanted and I was like cool. He even came out afterwards as

127:49like the Jamus experience. It's like yeah that's that's it dude. Like that's all we want. [laughter] Like he knows >> he's in on the bit dude. This is what's

127:55always been special about him you know.

127:57He's always been been in on the bit a little bit.

127:59>> He's he's in on all the bits. He's in legs like he he loves the bits.

128:04>> Yeah. Yeah. So, um he's in another spot here like where you look at the matchup and you're like, "Hey, uh you know, if

128:12if they can protect against the Blitz because this was the one thing Washington will they they like live and die on the Blitz because they just they

128:19don't trust their back end at all. Um and they were able to get to Daniel Jones and protect like the the back end,

128:25you know. So, that's the one worry is if you can get home with the blitzes, uh you then you get the crazied version of

128:29Winston.

128:31>> He has no back end when you're going against Daniel Jones.

128:34>> Yeah, that's true. [laughter] >> But he's in another spot. Washington 30th in passing points allowed per game, 31st touchdown rate, like they're middle

128:41of the pack and completion rate and like yards are passing them. So, like you can hit explosives on them uh and live the

128:48Jamus experience again if we can get it again.

128:51>> Yeah. Yeah, and obviously the Jamus experience became the Malik Neighbors experience which is which is awesome.

128:573.73 yards per route run, 23.2 PPR points. Uh 15.7 ADOT. He was up to 91% round participation. So this is this

129:06very very encouraging just to see him playing that much. He did have uh he was like looked like he hurt his shoulder

129:12again, but then didn't really miss any time. So >> yeah, that was the first like he caught that deep ball.

129:16>> That's going to be, you know, we're just going to have to deal with that all year. Um.

129:21>> Mhm. But in this case, I'm actually not for him sitting out and uh like play through it. [laughter] >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

129:30>> I'm a little inconsistent on this.

129:32>> No, we want the bad players to not play through it. [laughter] >> Players should get healthy.

129:36>> Bad players, you take all the time you need.

129:39>> Yeah. Uh Isaiah Likely is coming off a 41% targets per route run on 88% route participation. He had 2.28 28 yards per

129:49out run, which is good, but not as good as that target number would suggest. Uh, and just 13.6 PPR points. He is very

129:57much looking like a sleeping giant here.

129:59Like 31% target share. I have I I wrote it up. I was like, you know, do I think he finishes with a 31% target share? No.

130:08But I think he's like going to get a lot of targets for a while. And his yards per target right now is at 5.6,

130:16which is really bad. And you know, if you could just get somewhere like into the sevens, like we're >> we got a stew going. So, you know, I

130:24think I think uh likely, and I'm not a likely guy, like I wouldn't really drafted him at all.

130:30>> I may have, you know, no one knows for sure, but I may have called him the worst pick in on the board at one point.

130:35Uh clearly, man, when the information changes, we change, man. It's just what it is.

130:40>> Yeah. Uh but the >> I'm sure you didn't expect a 32% target change.

130:45>> I did not. I did not. [laughter] It would be funny if I did. I'm like, oh, >> you fade him. This guy, I got this dude

130:50for a 32. Fade him >> out of here.

130:53>> He's 83rd percentile on open score as well. So, like he is he's getting open.

130:58He's getting targeted a ton. And then it's not connecting, but like that is that's like what positive aggression is built on, right? It's better per target

131:07efficiency if the target volume is going to sustain. I don't think it'll sustain quite like this, but >> I would say rel in the context of tight

131:14ends, I would assume he's still gonna be really high because this offense is really throwing the ball to two players.

131:20>> Um, >> and he's running a lot of routes.

131:22>> That was the thing.

131:24In week one, he didn't because they were like more runoriented, but then he's just been the last three weeks he's just

131:29been out there every play.

131:31>> 85 92 88%.

131:33That's That's awesome.

131:35>> Cuz I was a little happy to be in the 80s. Yeah, because I was worried week one like he would be in the concade

131:40zone. Like I was like, "Oh, is he gonna be like in the concade zone with a high target per route rate, but not just

131:44>> kind of what he's been, right? He's been like Chica Conquo and him or like these part-time pass catching tight end."

131:50>> But nope, if you're going to if you're getting going to get targeted on 30% of your routes and be out there for 90%

131:55like eventually you're going to score fantasy points like >> 100% man.

131:59>> This would be a great match up to do it too uh you know against commanders really bad against tight ends pretty

132:04consistently.

132:05Yeah, I'm I'm actually going to even move him up a little bit more. I think I think this is a pretty pretty damn good

132:12week to bet on the positive aggression because I actually do think that he over the course of the season will probably

132:16become less of a priority with with you know um Malik Neighbors getting healthier and healthier and then like Malachi Fields has earned a role right

132:26out of the gate and you know probably sees more targets as things go go on as a rookie. Um, >> yeah, we need we got Darn We got Darno

132:34Mooney out here just cardioing the [ __ ] out of the like stuff [laughter] like because he's running more routes than Malachi Fields, but like he they do

132:42not care. He's out there just to run around.

132:45>> Yeah. Yeah. So, if Fields is, you know, maybe Fields isn't any good and and that doesn't matter. But I think as the

132:51season goes on, you just expect like the combination of a rookie plus neighbors getting more healthy, likely we'll probably see less work. But

133:00I don't think there's going to be like some massive swing against him in the next week or so. So, this this could be

133:04a a pretty big This is a it's the right time to play likely, you know, if you're going to play him at all this year, you

133:10want to play him in these these weeks here. Um, all right, Jaden Daniels returning on the Commander side. Uh, I'll toss that to you. I'll be right

133:19back.

133:20>> It's uh interesting spot for for Jaden Daniels. You wonder if he would have actually started this week if if Mariota

133:26doesn't go down and they win that game.

133:28I just think that they're kind of in a bind here with it being a divisional game this early in the year. They want

133:32to run him out here. He's going to wear a brace uh on his left arm, which signals to me like he's not going to

133:38play like they're not going to play under center at all. Uh he's just going to be like out of shotgun. I'm curious

133:43to see like too like the handoff stuff, but if you're able to a handoff out of shotgun, you can kind of do that

133:47two-handed like pistol stuff. Um I don't know if anyone remembers this, but there was a similar injury and Kurt Warner's actually talked about this. Kurt Warner

133:55had a similar injury and they would bring in Tim Retay like at the goal line to come in and hand off because he could

134:00he could only hand off with one hand. So any run to like the left uh they had to bring in Tim Retay to like come in and

134:06hand off because Kurt Warner couldn't hand off with that other hand. So Daniels I think is just going to play extremely just like 100% like out of

134:12shotgun mostly in this game. And the worry you have is um that we're just not going to get the scrambling from him

134:19because you know he scrambled on 13.6 6 of his career drop backs, the highest rate in the NFL since he entered the

134:25league. They already asked him like, "If it's third and eight, are you going to run?" Uh, and he he responded, "What

134:31quarter is it?" He's like, "Is it the fourth quarter?" And it's just like, so I think they've already told him like,

134:35"Dude, like you're going to you're going to keep your ass in the pocket as much as possible." Uh, unless uh you

134:41absolutely have to run. So, drop back passing game to where we now maybe don't have >> What quarter is it is a yes. That's a

134:50because you're That's a guy who's gonna run. He's They're gonna be mad at me if I say yes. So, I'm gonna say, "What

134:56quarter is it? [laughter] >> I'm gonna run with my robot arm and and run out of here." [laughter] But you don't have a probably 100% Terry

135:06McLaren if he plays. And we don't have Stefan Diggs.

135:10Daniels, I'm a little more hesitant on like being like super bullish in it. I don't I'm not I'm not scared of the

135:15matchup or anything. is just like I don't know like he if you go back to Jayen Daniels now for like since his

135:21rookie year he's like been like a floor player like we haven't like had any ceiling out of him and so like I'm

135:28treating him as like a floor player >> since his rookie year.

135:30>> Yeah. Yeah. That's why I said yeah since even when he played in full last year >> and like to start this year in week one

135:36when he played the full game it's just like >> he's operated as like kind of like a a backend QB1 high QB2 and that's kind of

135:43just how I'm treating him until like I see like >> yeah well and if he would have had the healthy receivers here maybe I'd have a

135:50little more optimism too but >> what's the latest on McLaren? He he seems questionable, but it feels like they're trying to push for him to play.

135:56And I think that's like I said like why I think Daniels is playing too because I feel like they feel like they're kind of

136:01like they need to try to win this game in in mode. Like they're one and three.

136:06The division kind of feels like kind of up for grabs right now because the Giants are three and one. So if you win

136:12this game, you're you're one game behind them. The Eagles and Cowboys have like their issues. So like I think they're telling themselves internally like this

136:19is a big one for us. uh we all know like the big course uh you know outside looking in like it's probably not going

136:25to work out for you guys but they can't operate in that fashion. So I think they're trying to push for McCorin

136:31especially with Diggs being out. I feel like they're pushing for McCorin to at least be active in some capacity. Dan Quinn was like kind of

136:38>> he kind of talked about like he could have maybe played last week and then McCor was kind of like well I didn't

136:44want to push. It seemed like there was a little schism of like him not want to play. So I was like

136:51Okay. Yeah. I mean, Antonio Williams looks looks pretty good and for the the Stefon Diggs role. Yeah. Diggs being out is the key thing for him.

137:00>> Mhm.

137:01>> Um he's been good, man. Like not a guy was that into as a prospect, but 26% targets per outr run, 1.85 yards per

137:07outr run. Kind of a, you know, slot type of player. More the Shakir slot uh than the than the Parker Washington slot, I'd

137:15say.

137:16>> But maybe in between 11.28 28 somewhere in between.

137:19>> Yeah, I was more in between. If you go back to his uh his his 2024 college year, he played outside like he's like a

137:2550/50 player inside outside and had over two yards per out run on the outside, too. So, I was like as as a prospect

137:31like in context like of like I had him like pretty low overall. He was like a wide receiver 10 or 11 in this class.

137:39But in the context of that grouping of guys, I did like him. I was like, "Oh, like if it works out for one of these

137:44guys in this area, like he at least has some interesting data data points or it's like it could work out for him. He

137:49might be a little bit better than we're giving him credit for." And I think the first month kind of showed like, "Yeah,

137:53there's something here. Like, then let's play this kid, especially on this team.

137:56Like, play this kid."

137:58>> Yeah. Yeah. I agree. I mean, Jaylen Null would maybe be like a similar kind of guy where it's like, "Hey, every time

138:03this guy plays, it's fun.

138:05>> What if you played him?"

138:07him.

138:08>> They kind of aren't always playing him, you know, especially with null. But >> we're only four games in with Williams

138:13and he did get up to 73% >> rout participation last week.

138:17>> A super long touchdown call back.

138:19>> Yep. Yep. Um and that was with McLaren out, but Digs in. Digs was at 76% last week. So, [snorts] >> uh I I'm definitely intrigued by

138:29Williams who is primarily playing in the slot this year, uh as is Diggs. So I I think that you know 49% slot rate for uh

138:40Antonio Williams and Diggs is at 62%. So I think that Diggs like absence really opens up routes specifically for Williams. He's also their second best

138:50receiver, you know, um besides McLaren if if Digs is not available.

138:54>> Yeah, >> Jaylen Burks is kind of the more your direct McLaren replacement, but even last week was only at 61% rout

139:00participation. So they do seem to value Williams more as you'd expect. Um, >> yeah, the other two guys into them here.

139:07>> Me too. Yeah, the other two guys, Burks and uh Diami Brown, like those guys are downfield target earners uh when they

139:13don't they don't do any of the stuff that like smooths out your fantasy production. Like Antonio Williams has shown like he could have a higher out

139:21than we expect, but also have like this inline to catch some six-yard passes and that's how you'd stack points.

139:27>> Yep.

139:29Yeah. And you would imagine if you're if you're figuring out what do we do with Jaden Daniels, it's like and and

139:34frankly, this has been kind of what's been fun about Daniels in his rookie year especially is like ball's getting out really quickly and then it's not

139:43always getting out super quickly because he is willing to hold it and scramble and take shots downfield. like at a baseline, you're kind of your core

139:53offense is fairly shallow and quick throws. And so I I think that Williams could be a big part of what they they do

140:02this week is they try to get the ball out of Daniel's hands quickly so that he doesn't take hits.

140:08>> And to be fair, they probably won't have to take hits anyways because the Giants without Brian Burns, like there's there's been no pass rush here.

140:15>> No pass rush at all. Yeah. Um, Chika Konquo though I I 61% RAW participation last week like in another universe he could be he could really

140:26profile as like a smash here but I don't think he is uh he's no >> he's kind of a tight end too still.

140:33>> Yeah. Yeah. And that's just his I think his role um this is who he is. It's Jacquo I say it's just Kaka.

140:41>> Well I this is my Isaiah likely thing.

140:43>> Yeah that's true. You know, sometimes these guys, you know, I thought they're going to play more Chica Conquo.

140:50>> Well, I don't want to Antonio Williams or Cha Conqu.

140:53>> I don't either. I'd rather I'd rather play Antonio Williams. Um, >> back fields >> pain.

141:02>> It seems like Rashad White's going to be back. So, >> it's just And Austin Eckler played a good amount. 18%

141:08>> looked okay, too. Like honestly, like looked pretty spry. Yeah, he did. So, yeah. I mean, >> peptides are working, man. [laughter]

141:18>> Peptides now. You will reagravate some >> Like these guys that this is this year like the injuries guys came back from,

141:27but like >> it's coming back is great. The leaving again has not been so great. [laughter] >> That's what's getting me. Um, but yeah,

141:37I had Bill as an RB4 here. It's It's not a great >> It's been real rough. He's last in the NFL in rate of runs over expectation. 70

141:44fewer yards than expected.

141:46Just can't carve out a a full-time role.

141:50It's rough. Just rough, man.

141:52>> Anything on Scataboo and the the Giants run game before we move on?

141:56>> Bad. Also bad. There's a bad running team, but at least they're they don't care about being a bad bad running team.

142:02So, if you have Scataboo, you're at least like well they don't care that it's bad. Like they're willing to just like like they don't care. They're going

142:09to keep running for three yards in a cloud of dust like all the time. They're like, "We don't care." Like Greg Roman

142:14and Matt Naggie, they're into this.

142:16They're into this [ __ ] Like, but Scataboo because he's actually one of these guys that has come back from injury and hasn't looked good at all.

142:23>> Yeah.

142:23>> Um >> Well, they're not throwing to him, which is really making that hard.

142:26>> They're throwing inconsistently, which is frustrating for us. Like they're like, it's like one week he gets a 19% target share, the next week 3%. You're

142:34like, "What are we doing here?" Like, "C can we pick a lane?" There's literally the exact target chair as he saw the

142:39last two weeks.

142:41>> So tilting.

142:42>> Pick a lane, man. Like even in the middle, I'll accept the middle. Just pick a lane.

142:45>> The middle would be fine.

142:47>> Yeah, >> that's a great lane. The middle lane.

142:49Great.

142:50>> But he's not about to exit. You're not trying to go that fast. Pick the middle lane.

142:54>> He's 43rd in success rate out of 51 backs at 20 more carries. Three and a half yards per carry. We talk about JCM.

143:01He's 35 yards below rushing expectation.

143:03Like >> it's not pretty, man.

143:06>> Yeah. But his rate of expect his rate of uh Russia's over expectation 44% is running back 12. Uh his his EPA based

143:15success rate he's he's running back 34 and then his he's averaging nine rush yards over expected uh below per game.

143:22So that's running back 65. So he's been there's been no burst.

143:26>> He is in like relative to like game situation he's not been successful.

143:31However, the rush yards over expected model, you know, reflects like defender positioning and stuff. So, I think it's sort of like, hey, you're stacking up

143:41all [laughter] the box. You're like, we know you're going to run. What are you going to do? Like, we're going to run.

143:45>> We're going to run.

143:46>> Cool. Scatter is getting more yards than you would expect given that. Is it going to lead to production? Maybe not a ton.

143:56But like they are treating him as the most obvious like hammer.

144:01>> I don't like this isn't who he is. He can be so much more than this.

144:06>> Like >> and the other thing too is LA last week uh Naji has three red zone touches and he gets a two-point conversion on a run.

144:14So like they used like >> he he's been cutting into like some of this goal line stuff. Uh two weeks ago

144:20he came in inside the 10-2 the first game he was active and like that's not good because at least because scatter.

144:26You at least want him to like fall into the end zone a few times.

144:29>> 100%. That I mean that's the whole that's the upside of this role.

144:32>> Yeah.

144:33>> Yeah. That it >> it's pain. So I start I have him in a league and like if if uh >> JT doesn't play I have Mike Washi and I

144:43think I'm definitely going to play Mike.

144:44>> I would play Mike Washington for sure. I don't think that's even that close.

144:48>> Yeah.

144:49>> Uh yeah. I've got Mike Washington like five spots ahead of Scaboo and a tier above.

144:54>> Yeah. Yeah. So that's where where I'm at.

144:57>> That's brutal.

144:58>> It's tough. It's tough. It's tough.

145:00>> Yeah. I have him in baseball and I think like in best ball he will be at least mitigate he's I wish I had someone else

145:07but like it's going to mitigate the pain a little bit because he will score some touchdowns. And when he's catching the

145:13ball, that's where I don't want the middle lane. I actually prefer this like 1% target share randomly to, you know, then like, hey, we threw it 16% of the

145:22time. Cool. Um, and you know, you get a little bit more spikes that way, but it does I just I don't I don't get I don't get the plan.

145:30It's never really made sense. Um, it does feel like they never have actually watched him play before this year.

145:37>> That Yeah, >> I'm like, prove to me. I know it's an outlandish accusation [laughter] to be like, Matt Naggie's never seen Cam

145:45Scataboo play when it wasn't in person.

145:48>> I would say he hasn't proved me wrong yet.

145:50>> I would say it's probably true.

145:55He watched him one time and it was last year when the Giants played the Chiefs.

145:58That was the only time he watched him play.

146:00>> It's only even in person.

146:03>> We [clears throat] need to look up what he had. Maybe he didn't catch a ball that game. We need to look up that box.

146:11>> Yeah, that was it. That was the only time he watched him play it for this year. There's no way.

146:18>> [laughter] >> This is going to be horrific when I find out he wasn't targeted against the Chiefs last year.

146:23>> Probably not.

146:24>> No, he had eight targets. There's no excuse. That was his season high. He went six for 61 on eight targets.

146:30>> 10.2 yards per catch.

146:33He He rushed 10 times for six yards, 60 yards, six yards per clip, and a touchdown. He had one of his best games

146:40of the season last year. 21.1 PPR points. Uh, actually that might have been standard points. Let me switch this

146:48up. Um, yeah. TW 24.1 PPR points. Uh, I don't know what I was looking at before.

146:55Half. Anyway, >> well, plus he's already >> plus the weeks that they actually So, they threw to him in weeks two and three

147:03and he gave you two explosives. He had a 19 yard catch in week two and he had a 30- yard catch in week three. You know

147:10what? This offense could use some explosive plays.

147:17>> [laughter and gasps] >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, oh, he talked about Isaiah likely's target share maybe coming down. I mean, that that would be

147:26a good reason for it to come down as you get Cam Scataboo above 3% where he was last week. [laughter]

147:36>> All right, let's go to the Broncos at Chargers.

147:40Shawn Payeyton is calling plays again.

147:43Uh, you know, I feel like some of the takes were like, "Oh, real surprising."

147:48And you know what? It's not surprising.

147:50But is it also bad? I don't think it's bad. I'm happy to see it. You can't tell me that Shawn Payeyton calling plays is

147:59worse than Davis Webb calling plays. I won't believe it. It's It's I I've seen Davis Webb call plays. I'm not into it.

148:06The only thing I will say is this also has some of that Diko Ryan thing to it too because the Broncos have played uh

148:14the Rams and 49ers the past two weeks they played Spags in week one and it's like you have this Chargers defense that

148:20is now missing Derwin James probably would have Dante Jackson he look what I did.

148:25>> You know what though again that is that is Sean >> that is okay for us because it's not defense and it's offense and we care

148:30about the guys on this offense.

148:32>> I'm for it with Ryan's too. I'm pro I'm pro head coach getting to call the plays whatever they want. That's you've earned

148:39that. [laughter] >> That's sharp. That to me I'm like okay you understand football. You're like let me let me call defensive plays against

148:48Cam Ward and let me call offensive plays against the Chargers. Uh but Davis Webb so last two weeks minus 4% pass rate

148:57would have expected against the Rams minus min - 6% against the 49ers and then on first and 10 - 18 and -7% and in

149:04week one they were at - 11% against the Chiefs. They came alive a little bit against the Jags with a 5% passover

149:10expected on first and 10 in that game.

149:12That was Bonex's one good game this year. They were at minus 1% POE in that game. is still, you know, a slightly

149:19into the run, but >> they were prioritizing the pass in that neutral first and 10 situation. Defense doesn't know what you're going to do

149:27>> and you're like, we're going to prioritize the passing game. That is generally a sharp way to play things because the passing game is more

149:33efficient than the run game, right? It's not like you always have to do it.

149:37There's certain, you know, game situations where it can make sense to really establish the run, etc. But this was like a pretty clear. There's stuff

149:44that jumps out where you're like, what is this dude doing? And you know, the the the 49ers do not have some incredible defense. They they don't

149:53have Bosa right now. Like it's you do not need to try to hide. Also, you have kind of JK Dobbins not running well at

150:01all. Um they ran well last year, he's not running well this year. The offensive line hasn't been dominant this year. So, it just doesn't make sense.

150:09You know, it's it'd be different if you had like Jonathan Taylor and he's really rolling, but that's not what this was.

150:15So, I do think that the Broncos had really screwed this up from the play calling perspective. And then you go into this Chargers game where the

150:24Chargers are a massive runf funnel.

150:26Teams have a 53% pass rate against them, minus 6% pass rate of expected, 5% shift to the run. Uh Seahawks just posted a

150:3447% pass rate against them. Bills were at 51%.

150:37I think Webb would have gotten in his own way here and gone too runheavy. I think what you actually want to do is be

150:45balanced against the if you're the Broncos, you know, be balanced against the Chargers and try to get your pass game going here and your run game should

150:55be pretty good. Your run game should be efficient. Um, and you can you can lean on that to an extent, but it's more like

151:00the Chargers run defense isn't terrible.

151:03They're more like the Titans where the whole offense the whole team is almost like the Titans at this point which is,

151:10you know, deeply depressing. But the the situation is similar where like the offense cannot push back. They can't push you to the air and the run defense

151:19isn't good enough to stop teams from just being like, "Fine, then we're just going to run the ball and beat you

151:24easily." And you know, that's been the Chargers experience all season. Justin Herbert in all four games has just been brutal in efficiency.

151:32>> Uh EPA per play percentiles of 28, 27, 29, 21. So just like consistent as hell in the worst way, you know, and uh so

151:44that's led to them being a run, but it's not because the matchup's so easy. The Chargers are are actually worse against

151:50the pass in a number of metrics than they are against the run. So my hope here is that with Shawn Payeyton taking

151:56back play calling duties, we do get more volume and we get some efficiency and we get more of a Jaylen Waddentric approach

152:04where we've seen Wadd have pretty good target rates in a in a few games but only the one good game back in week two

152:09against the Jaguars.

152:11>> Yeah, I'm in on Wadd in this spot anyways. I'm a little extra because of the the change to Shawn Peyton because I

152:17I feel like they still want to get him the football. Obviously, they should want to, but when you look at what's

152:22happened to Wadd this season and especially these last two weeks since the Jaguars game is uh right now, uh he's getting no intermediate targets.

152:30Only 15% of his targets have come in the intermediate area, that 10 to 19 yard area. That's like where he's lived,

152:35right? Like these crossing routes, these digs, these slants. His career rate is 30%. The last two years he's been at 37%

152:4137%. So, it's like way below half of his typical usage. uh has a career-high rate of targets at the line of scrimmage,

152:48which we knew we were going to get those in the Broncos offense, which we were actually excited about those, like just

152:52peppered in. We just wanted the marriage of the two. But this lines up, I think, with the last two weeks. So, the last

152:59two weeks they face the 49ers and Rams, who are two teams that just against everyone, like their defense is predicated on just taking away middle of

153:06the field throws. It's like this new like um almost like a defensive meta that we're seeing shift to like offenses now wanting to throw shorter and over

153:14the middle of the field that we've now seen these defenses start to like really kind of hone in on this and like the

153:1949ers are like this and we'll I guess I'll get into I'll save it for the 49ers when we do the darn stuff but both the

153:24so just to give you some of the numbers 49ers number five in the NFL in rate of throws between the numbers faced Rams

153:30number nine Chargers 31st so this was a spot I was already kind of saying like the dynamics change here teams are throwing over the middle of

153:38the field in between the numbers to the Chargers. We could see Wadd get some of this stuff back now that they lost after

153:44the Jaguars game. So, I was already a little more optimistic on the usage for him in this game. Now, to take a step of

153:52faith, you still have to throw those, but um I was already like more like he's I have no reason to disbelieve he's not

153:59a part of their plans though. So that's why I was just saying, "All right, things line up for him now to be more

154:04involved in these this menu be uh available to them to order off of this week, this part of the menu." I agree. I

154:11think the the the guys I like here are like you can kind of see them getting like a big share of the targets uh

154:21especially for their position. So Wadd I like here. Harvey I kind of like here who's been really involved over the last

154:28couple weeks as a pass catcher 25 and 27% target shares and that's with those really conservative game plans. uh he's he's gotten a lot of targets. So, it's

154:36been a kind of a backfield centric approach and maybe that shifts, but you do have with this game environment, Joe Alt's out, Rashan Slater's out, um

154:47Penning is out, the guard, and he's a backup. So, they're now down to a third string guard. So, you're looking at a

154:53Chargers offense that's been horrible.

154:56>> Maki is probably not gonna play either to be fair.

154:58>> Who?

154:59>> Maki is probably not gonna play. He didn't practice.

155:02They're listening.

155:04>> Yeah.

155:04>> What's that?

155:05>> No, that only reinforces the point I'm making, which >> Yeah. Yeah. I said he's probably also not going to lie. So,

155:11>> you don't have Pat Certan. Um, and and Riley Moss has been banged up. So, uh, you know, you do have injuries on the

155:19defensive side for the Broncos, but >> like Chargers are the worst offense in the league. Like literally, they're >> they're dead last in in overall weighted

155:27DB. So, >> they can't afford this, you know? they can't afford to be down like and we saw this last year right Slater misses the

155:34entire season to Pateller >> any games where Alt was out it was it was a disaster and you know they just

155:42don't have the other thing when you look at like what's going on with Herbert Herbert's not getting the ball out all

155:48that quickly he's not holding on to it forever 2.89 8 9 second time to throw is is okay, but he's getting pressured at a

155:55really high rate. Uh he's not on his first read.

155:59>> It's literally the same thing as last year. Like >> you hold >> I mean you'd expect McDaniel to be you

156:05know and maybe he is maybe he's saying like we need to get the ball out faster but it's not happening. And

156:11>> like that's already the problem. The problem is already that with Mike McDaniel as his offensive coordinator, he's not getting the ball out fast

156:18enough. And then he loses three linemen, two star tackles, and he goes against the Broncos who I mean, the Broncos blitz, they have a

156:29good pass rush, they're good, they're just a good defense. Um, and you know, again, Certan being out really matters, but it doesn't affect the pass rush,

156:39>> right? So yeah, I I think on the Broncos side, I like the play calling change. I think that they could, you know, like we

156:49talked about like when teams go against the Dolphins and stuff like you you're still allowed to score points, >> you are allowed,

156:54>> you know, but I don't it's like the Chargers ability to push back is so curtailed by these injuries and then

157:01obviously they've been they need to improve a lot in the first place.

157:07Yeah, like I said, they're I mean, and then they they have defensive injuries, too. You like said like Derwin James and

157:13Dante Jackson are out. They're already rolled out. So, it's like it's it's if you if you didn't think this was already

157:18like could get worse, it's somehow finding a way to get worse.

157:21>> Like significantly worse.

157:23>> Like if you're like, well, it's not going to get worse than this, right?

157:25Like every week for the Chargers, like it's not going to get worse, right? You know, it keeps finding a way. I don't

157:31like losing alt and Slater in combination is like it's not as bad as losing Herbert, but it's like not it's it's close,

157:40>> dude. There was a like a fourplay sequence at the end of that game last week where I thought Herbert died three

157:45times. I was like, he's not getting up.

157:47I was like, he's not getting up after that.

157:49>> Part of the reason it's close is because it might mean you lose Herbert, you know, like it could directly lead to

157:53then you lose Herbert.

157:54>> I mean, he was >> he's going to take a lot of hits here.

157:56He took a couple hits where I was just like there's no way he's getting up after that. Like >> yeah, man.

158:01>> It's just like this. And yeah, he's just it's it's down real bad.

158:06>> I called for them like when I was writing this game up. I literally was like I think the Chargers should be

158:12cowards here. I actually think they should just run the ball and try to go home because you can't get Herbert hurt,

158:18>> right?

158:19>> Just run it.

158:22You pick who. And they're picking they're picking they're not picking one guy. They're not picking one now if you >> I'm not going to play that guy, so it

158:28doesn't matter, >> right? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, some gamers have to, but like it's it's a full-on three-way committee. And he kind

158:36of let everyone know about Mike McDaniel this week that like, yeah, that's kind of what we're doing.

158:42If you told me that in week five I was going to have a fully healthy Omarian Hampton behind Alvin Chimera, I don't think I would have believed you.

158:57brother.

158:59It's so bad.

159:02>> God, he was a dude I I bumped up and luckily my saving grace was I still like my I had a firewall. I still had Kenneth

159:09Walker over him. So, it was like Kenneth Walker.

159:11>> As long as Kenneth Walker was there, but I got him a couple leagues in the second round where Kenneth Walker was there and

159:16I it just feels so bad.

159:17>> Jenty saved me, too.

159:18>> It just feels so bad >> because once he fell post prayer circle, I was taking Genty over Hampton.

159:24I mean, he has he he's got a touchdown in in three of the four games and it doesn't even matter.

159:29>> No, dude.

159:31>> We fine, but that was it.

159:35>> I mean, yeah, cuz it's not even He's had he had 28% of the team carries last last week, which is, you know, it was less

159:42than Mitchell, but Mitchell was at 31%.

159:45Like, it's [laughter] crazy that this is not even unlocking Mitchell. Like, so Oh, so Mitchell's like one of the best zero

159:53running back picks you could have made.

159:54Like, >> no.

159:55>> He's fine.

159:56>> You probably even haven't started him yet.

159:58>> No. Vidal had seven touches. They all had red zone touches. Um, it's just disgusting. It's just >> disgusting.

160:08It's just >> Well, good news. It's going to get a lot worse. [laughter] >> Good news.

160:14Good news, Chargers fans.

160:16Um, Trey Harris, this is like a minor bright spot, I'd say.

160:20>> Yeah. Yeah, I think so.

160:21>> 91% round participation last week.

160:23Quinton Johnson's been abysmal. Lad Mani probably out. You could He's the guy that, you know, on this whole offense by-week fill in. Trey Harris, you could

160:35you could definitely talk me into him.

160:37>> Yep. No Certan, maybe no Riley Moss.

160:41He's going to be on the field a lot.

160:42He's led the team in receiving the last two weeks anyways.

160:45>> So, he's the one guy.

160:47>> That's exactly how I wrote it up, too.

160:49If like if you if there's one Charger, you can kind of stomach playing. You're like, "This is the dude."

160:54>> Yep.

160:54>> This is the one.

160:55>> What about on the Broncos side? I mentioned Harvey. What? Dobbins. I mean, >> this could go a certain way where they

161:02just feed Dobbins.

161:03>> Yeah, they could. He's been so bad. It's hard to see him exploited. Another guy that came back from a tough injury,

161:09right? And it hasn't really worked out.

161:11So >> this one I mean he's done it like four times in >> That is true. That is true. That this

161:15might be one too many [laughter] that has finally broken him, but he's he's been disgusting. Three and a half yards per carry, 43rd in success rate out of

161:24running backs with 25 or more carries.

161:25He has no explosives either. That was his one calling card that he still had was like, I'll get you explosives still.

161:31>> He was kind of boom bust, you know.

161:32>> Yeah. Yeah. Yep. And he's just ball bust right now.

161:35>> Bust. Um, and it makes you wonder, I think there's what, one more game till we get Jonah Coleman back. Like if it's

161:43just we will see Jonah Coleman cut into some of this role.

161:46>> You have to if he's healthy.

161:48>> This is probably his last chance, right?

161:50Like they're going to be favored. You're in a team you can get in the script.

161:53Like you got to turn this into something if you're him.

161:55>> Yeah.

161:56>> Um, you don't feel bullish because he's not going to catch the ball at all.

161:59>> Um, >> no. But I get it. If you just need a guy like that to to sell yourself on, this

162:06would be at least the the the game environment to where he get.

162:09>> It's a game environment play, but it's not I still had him as like a >> run back about it. Yeah, he needs a

162:14touch. He's got to get a touchdown for you.

162:17>> He has to, >> which he might, but >> Yeah. Yeah. And Sutton uh Sutton literally has the worst EPA on targets

162:25in the NFL, >> dude. I mean, I have bad news if you're like Pat Bryant's out, so I'm gonna play I'm gonna play the next man up at on

162:36Broncos wide receivers basically. I mean, Bryant was behind Sutton, but it's sort So, not next man up, that's the wrong way to put it, but it's like I'm

162:41going to play the target consolidation game. Um, with with Shawn Payeyton now calling plays again, like I don't even know if Lil Jordan Humphrey is on the

162:50roster today, but he's catching a pass on Sunday.

162:53>> Oh, [laughter] they all Yeah, they all all the Jamokes are getting in, baby.

162:56Marvin Mims, they're all getting one.

162:58>> Marvin Mims is gonna play a lot, I think.

163:00>> Oh, yeah.

163:01>> He's a slot, so he he probably takes over some of the Pat Bryant stuff.

163:04>> Um, but Troy Franklin was playing last week some.

163:07>> Yeah, he'll be back.

163:08>> Yep.

163:09>> So, I I'm not I'm not interested in the >> I'm into W. I was into Waddle before and now like I will say if you're playing um

163:17a lot of DFS this week, uh he is a direct late swap option off Michael Wilson on both both sides.

163:24>> Oh, yeah. That's a good call.

163:25>> They are the same price on both sides.

163:28Like so like if you are either chasing points and you can't eat chalk uh or need to pivot off chalk like Jaylen Wadd

163:35is on the radar for you to be a late swap off Michael Wilson.

163:38>> That's a great call.

163:39>> I'm not saying Michael Wilson's a bad play. I'm just saying like they're you're going to beind, you know.

163:42>> Yeah. Like you can't eat the chalk and you're going to need some to make a pivot.

163:46>> Yeah, that's a good call. Uh 49ers at Seahawks. Brock Pury has been excellent this year. He has been excellent in part

163:56against the Dolphins and Cardinals defenses. So, you know, that's that's going to boost your efficiency. Um, and it certainly did. He was 100th

164:03percentile against the Dolphins, 99th percentile against the Cardinals. But Rams defense 70th percentile in eer play. Broncos 65th. Now, Certan was

164:14hurt. So it's not after they're there, you know, >> you also get that uh 56 yard screen in the last play of the game. That that

164:22helps that helps the the box score a lot, man. And all the efficiency. It >> sure does. Um but you know, hey, the

164:29success rate was 77th percentile. You know, that's that was only that didn't just one more successful play by that metric. So

164:37>> um you know, Pertie has been really good this year. He's been he's been really good in all four games, but he does now

164:42get the Seahawks defense. There's been some kind of like, hey, the Texans defense don't really doesn't look like we were thinking. Rams are going to be

164:49an absolute juggernaut on defense.

164:50They're dealing with injuries to the guys that were going to make them juggernaut. Uh Seahawks have been Seahawks. Not not perfect. Marcus

164:58Mariota was efficient against them two weeks ago, but last week Justin Herbert was was terrible again. Uh Brassette, they completely held in check. Jake May

165:07was 56th percentile on EPA play, so not terrible, but also not good. Um, and they're now fourth in passing DUA, seventh in EPA, and fifth in drop back

165:18success rate. So, this is an elite pass defense. He's going against. This is a true test for Brock Pery. He will though

165:25have Mike Evans who played through the ribs injury. 3.04 yards per route run, 7 ran his most rout. That's his highest of

165:33the season. Yeah. Which is kind of like caveat there of like he hasn't really been healthy once.

165:38>> True. But still, um, Debo Samuel was back in kind of a hybrid role. Uh, you know, Chris McCaffrey, we saw his his,

165:48um, his usage drop again, but not to a crazy low level or anything, and still had a 15% target share. 74% of snaps,

165:55didn't dominate carries, uh, but still involved very much. So, as a receiver and then George KD, man, like, yeah, he didn't have an insane overall game. Um,

166:05but 2.33 yards per route run, makes the big play. Uh, and then 88% route participation, which is his highest of the season, building on the 86% he had

166:15in week three. So, the story we were telling last week of like, hey, George KD is back, that still very much looks

166:22to be the case. Didn't have the best game in the box score, 17 PPR points.

166:25actually his second worst game of the season there. But yeah, I mean KD does still very much look back. Mike Evans is

166:33going to be able to play and dude Evans is he leads the league in open score and he has an AOT of 13.4

166:412.63 yards per route run. Like you know it's >> Imagine if he was healthier.

166:46>> Imagine if he was healthy. [laughter] Imagine if you could play a full game you know like he's he's been really

166:52really valuable to the offense. So, I think having him here is huge. I mean, it's never like they lost dribbling, you

166:59know, this Evans has been dealing with injuries. They lost Persaw. Like, the 49ers are never going to be at full health in a way, but

167:07>> yeah.

167:07>> Uh, they're close. They're they're at kind of what they could hope for at this point in the season um going into this

167:14really, really difficult test. So, I have some faith in in Perie to be able to overcome this to an extent, you know.

167:22>> Yeah. Uh yeah, same boat. Uh it's the the last four times these teams have played, Mike McDonald and Brock Pury, uh

167:30being involved in the matchup. They have five career matchups. I mean, the 49ers scored 17 or fewer points in the last

167:36four of them. Um he's only thrown for 200 yards twice against Mike McDonald's defense. Uh 14 fantasy points per game.

167:42If you want to give them a little bit of a hall pass, like the last time they played in the playoffs last year, like

167:46the 49ers were just gutted. They didn't have anyone. I think there'll be a lot more floor here. uh you know having KD

167:51having Evans available and having CMC at least gives you some floor but no ceiling outcomes here like right like I'm not like it's all like you're hoping

168:00to get by cuz you're not benching CMC obviously you're not benching KD you're not benching Evans probably uh cuz you know he's he just gets so many high

168:08leverage targets that he keeps him at like in at least like the upside wide receiver three range if not higher. He

168:14has a first down or touchdown on 63% of his targets. Uh it's wide receiver three. He has a 46% target share on

168:21third down. Only JSN has a higher rate and he also has 33% of the end zone targets. So it's like his whole plane is

168:28built out of high leverage stuff right now that counts for fantasy football. So it's like >> and he's good at football. Like so like

168:34>> he's still really good. He's still really good. They have to manage him a little bit.

168:38>> He looks lean in the 49ers uniform.

168:40Looks the number five or it's the red but he looks he looks lean. But no ceiling outcomes we're expecting here.

168:46It's just like you're probably in a spot where you're not benching a lot of these guys. I lowered Pery to like a fringe

168:51QB1.

168:52>> Um definitely there's a there's still lower floor here in that too, but I'm just trying to give the benefit of the

168:57doubt like he's played so good that they can put something together here still.

169:02>> Yeah. Like I have him behind Brousett, but um >> but you know, ahead of Knicks, ahead of Straoud.

169:09>> Yeah. Yeah.

169:10>> So I'm still >> Absolutely, too.

169:12>> Yeah. Yeah. I have some faith in him, but it's more like, hey, you didn't suck, you know, >> cuz both both games against the Broncos

169:21and Rams, >> you know, he was at just over 200 yards in both games, but like, you know, the three he had the three touchdowns and

169:27then the two. Also, the one thing that Pertie actually is doing that we can maybe count on here is he's running.

169:33>> Yeah.

169:33>> Like he's got 29 30 34 29 rushing yards.

169:37And like that's not breaking the bank, but like dude, that's an almost like an it's at least half of a touchdown pass

169:42every week. You're getting for fantasy football standards. We've seen Drake May had 47 yards rushing against Seattle week one. Herbert had 40 last week. So

169:49it's an avenue where like it helps your floor in some of these tougher spots. If you can get to 40 yards rushing, that's

169:54a passing touchdown. So that that's he he's been running a lot more. He ran a lot more at the end of back the back of

170:01last year, too. So that's something that's been a little bit of static, which is nice to see in his game. He's a

170:05really good athlete. Like I mean you every >> I'm on the like pretty is pretty does get disrespected. I think I think he's

170:12so much better than >> 100%.

170:14>> He gets treated as as he's just you know >> manufactured by Shanahan and >> that's because he did manufacture Jimmy

170:22Garopolo and you know he was a fraud.

170:25But uh pretty is not I really believe in some some ways it kind of feels like it is the same but it's like when you watch

170:32him play it's like clearly clearly not the same >> dude the the and it's most the most obvious difference is Pertie is by far

170:39the best out of structure player that Shanahan's ever had.

170:42>> That's the big thing. Yeah. like by far cuz he's had like efficiency guys from like Cousins and Matt Ryan from like

170:48pocket dudes that are like we know are like at least like a level of of above average to good but like pretty out of

170:54structure I would argue is one is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL period and when you add that to the ontime

171:02stuff that Shanahan designs like that's where you have like the marriage and yeah >> and it he's been so good. Um yeah I I

171:10also agree. I think he's just a very good player.

171:13>> Yeah. Um we should probably start judging like him on his merits as opposed to just being like, well, he's he's in Shanahan's offense, so none

171:23of this counts.

171:24>> Um McAffrey, thoughts on him here? I mean, um, like I said, the carry share did drop, uh, one week relapse from

171:33Shanahan, 65% of the carries to McAffrey in week three, but then 43% last week, which is much closer where he was in

171:40weeks one and two at 33 and 37%.

171:43But did have 15% target share. That's actually his lowest of the season. On the season, he he has a 20% target

171:50share, which is running back two.

171:51>> U, but Macaffer's been really good.

171:53Running back seven in ESPN's receiver rating. uh running back 12 with 1.49 yards per route run. And Kaylin Black is kind of disappeared. He's had 17% carry

172:03shares each of the last two weeks. So, it's not like really Black's been getting more involved. This Debo Samuel Hybrid role, you know, is is eating in a

172:11little bit and I think they're just trying to save save McCaffrey where they can, but his his role is still like he

172:17had 20.9 expected points last week. Even in week one, he was at 16.4. his expected points workload for the year 19.3 which is running back eight but

172:28yeah he's he's one of the the top guys in what you're seeing you know as far as the opportunities that he's getting the

172:34value of those so even against the Seahawks who are also elite against the run they're first in DBA fifth in EPA

172:40and third in success rate you know to me I'm like you're you're not expecting a ceiling outcome here but it's sort of same story

172:49where it's like I'm playing I have McAffrey running back three this week.

172:53I'm not really I think I'd have him running back three. Like I that's kind of where he starts for me, right? Um

172:59because Gibbs and Robinson um maybe Kenneth Walker if he was active, but I don't really have a a big dock on McCaffrey here.

173:10>> Yeah, it's tough to expect the ceiling output here. I mean, Seattle's just been so dominant, right? Like they haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher in 30 games,

173:17right? 34 games. Uh CMC also has only 100 total yard game so far this year uh is against the Cardinals. Um the longest

173:26runs Seaks have given up this year is 13 yards to a running back.

173:29>> Whoa. [laughter] Uh in the three games that McCaffry's played against Mike McDonald >> when Tyler Warren has a longer pass then

173:37you've allowed a run.

173:38>> A run. Yeah. [laughter] >> Yeah. 6923 35 rushing yards in these games. He's been under 3.2 2 yards per carry every game against Mike McDonald.

173:49But Seattle, 29 and a half% of the receptions against them as a team this year have gone to running backs. It's

173:54the second highest rate in the league.

173:56Like that's your path uh in this game is that he gets enough receiving work to just carry like the inefficiency rushing

174:02and then you hope to get a touchdown, right? Uh to kind of get this to like low and one, but like expecting the

174:07ceiling performance here is is just really rough because Seattle's just been so dominant against the run and they've just rolled that right over again.

174:16It's like a floor-based play of the role.

174:19>> Yeah. Of his role.

174:20>> So good. Yeah.

174:21>> Yeah. I will say the one element here that could be interesting though is that uh the 49ers might be forced to just

174:26play more 11 personnel here and you might get some more runs out of 11 personnel because you check's not going to play. So they're just not going to

174:34have the access to they're just not going to play as much 21 as they always do because you check out.

174:39>> Right. A good point.

174:41>> Uh all right. Seahawks side. Sam Darnold's coming off a a rough game. Uh he was he had minus 4.3 EPA and a 46%

174:51success rate, which is quarterback 26 and quarterback 19 on the week. Um now against the 49ers defense though, that is not great, especially at generating

175:02quick pressure. They they have uh they're 28th there, 23rd in pressure rates. The pass rush here has been a concern. The overall pass defense has

175:10been fine, but Bosa is going to be out again. So, Darnold should have time to throw here. And if he has time to throw,

175:18he's going to find JSN is basically what it comes down to, I think. But where are you at on this?

175:22>> This is the one of the more compelling matchups of the week, man. For me, like from a real football stance, like

175:27watching this, I can't wait to see this.

175:28So, Raheem Morris is aware they can't rush the passer. Like, he knows like he fully understands it. So what he's doing

175:35is he's just making teams throw short and outside the numbers right now. And Mike McDonald has done a great job at

175:41this just with a better pass rush where like so like last year Seattle was number one or 32 depending how you want

175:46to look at this metric and rate of throws to an open receiver like they had the highest like the the guys that were

175:52open but you were throwing the ball where they wanted you to throw it.

175:57>> So it didn't matter and that's what Raheem Morris is doing right now. This is why the pass defense is still

176:01working. Uh so he's the 49ers are facing the third lowest area yards or pass attempt. Like I told you the between the

176:07numbers stuff, right? Uh teams only throwing between the numbers on them 28% of the time. Like they were awesome week one too against the Rams. Like teams

176:14that want to throw over like they're taking away and you obviously you have Fred Warner. Like they have Upton Stout like dudes that are like running in the

176:21scheme. So like he's manipulating the pass rush in a way. He's like, "Hey, we're not going to rush the passer anyways. We're just going to make you

176:27throw it short and we're going to come up and tackle. Like you're going to throw it to an open dude. we don't give

176:31a [ __ ] cuz it's a dude we want you to throw it to and we're just going to come up and tackle and you can try to paper

176:35cut us to death all you want but that's a really tough way to live uh in the NFL. Well, Darnold, guess who guess what

176:41Darnold wants to do and the Seahawks want to do? They want to throw over the middle of the field. Like he's he's he's

176:4761% of his throws go over the middle field. That's between the numbers. It's number two in the NFL. Um 49 >> super efficient at it.

176:54>> Yep. And and JSN same thing. 46% of his targets over the middle of the field.

176:59So, like the dynamics of this matchup are really compelling to me. Uh, and also, like I said, the 49ers are taking

177:04away the deep pass because of this, too.

177:06They're number two behind Seattle in uh efficiency on throws 10 or more yards downfield because they're just making you throw short. Uh, so when you do

177:14throw deep into all this coverage, they're just taking that away. Uh, opponents have only completed 14 of 39 passes against them 10 or more yards

177:21downfield. Uh, so you kind of have they're just making you have to paper cut them like like and it's it's kind of

177:27interest. It's kind of smart. when you consider they can't rush the passer like he's like hey like so super fun like

177:33it's kind of fun to fun to watch this play out and obviously you have the angle like Brian Flurry comes from

177:37Shanahan like you know uh like the dynamics of that so like this is a pretty fun game um in that capacity like

177:45uh cuz Darnold if you make him get impatient like that's what >> like he'll throw you some [ __ ] like

177:53>> that's a that's a very very good point like darn from a real life perspective I think that making Darnold just

177:59consistently paper cut you can really work for the defense.

178:03>> Yeah, >> I do think from JSN's perspective like this is where versatility is so key.

178:09>> We ain't worried about JSN. [laughter] >> He he's play his slot snaps have been 33% 23% 15 and 17%. So he's not even

178:17really playing in the slot much at all.

178:19They've moved him all around. He's playing you know outside backfield like whatever they got to do. And then like he's so good after the catch too. So,

178:27you're telling me like like they can kind of do some interesting stuff. You know what? When he's lined up outside, get on the ball quick.

178:34Yeah, I think he's he he can turn paper cut. He can get a paper cut pretty deep.

178:39>> So, I think >> [ __ ] man. Does not bleed. Does it stop bleeding? [laughter] >> Yeah. What's going on, man?

178:47>> This is a uh this is a match up I'm not worried about him for. And like >> God, I mean, you'd have to it's going to

178:55be hard. They'd almost have to play themselves. If they played themselves, I'd be worried.

178:58>> He had five for 76 last week. And you're like, you're kind of mad about it.

179:02You're like, like [laughter] >> this is [ __ ] >> He had 30% of the He literally had three 3.3 yards for target. Like 30% of

179:11targets, 50% of their yards. You're like mad. You're like mad. You're like mad.

179:14>> 330 yards per out run.

179:16>> You're like Matt. You're like, >> listen, what a shitty [laughter] game.

179:18What a shitty game.

179:21>> Yeah, he's he's been nuts. So, I think uh you know, we're good there. But overall, like you think about what this

179:28game could look like cuz if you one thing if they if they are taking away the middle of the field and forcing Sam

179:35Darnold to dink and dunk, one thing you could do as the Seahawks, which you're kind of inclined to do already, is run.

179:43>> Right. So, they had a 47% pass rate.

179:46Well, that's the other thing the 49ers are getting teams to do is make it they're like, "All right, we're just going to go bait you into keep running

179:50and throwing short." Like, >> yeah, they I think they were going to take that bait. [laughter] They they had a 42% pass rate two weeks ago or three

179:59weeks ago against the Cardinals. Um they did pass what I was I was pleased to see that against the Commanders when they

180:07were actually in, you know, like a real game, they passed 75% of the time. That was 11% above expected. So, they are

180:13willing, if pushed, to to air it out, but the 49ers have been a run funnel this year. They haven't been very good

180:21against the run. They're 30th in success rate, so they're allowing consistent gains on the ground. They're they're preventing big plays in the run game,

180:29but they're they're allowing consistent chunk gains, which kind of goes to what you're saying where it's like, >> you know, you you're allowed to run for

180:35four yards or whatever, you know. Yep.

180:37>> Um, >> but I think the I think the Seahawks gonna be pretty into that and I And I get why you're saying like I I can run

180:45for four or five yards with Emanuel Wilson instead of Sam Darnold trying to like complete a throw, a short throw, which

180:54is always a little higher risk than you'd like, you know, if you're asking.

180:58And they've limited Darnold's drop backs, you know, even last year when they won the Super Bowl. Like limiting his drop backs was clearly a big part of

181:04what they were doing. So I think Wilson Wilson's going to get a lot of carries.

181:08He had 64% of the attempts last week. He had a 21% target share which was kind of shocking. Um and obviously nuked with 27

181:15or nuked for what he is for 27 PPR points. Um I think he's set up quite well again. And uh you know I have him

181:24as like an RB2, but >> I could see that looking low ultimately if they just kind of take the bait and

181:29run the ball a bunch.

181:30>> Yeah. 49ers face 31 backfield touches per game because they coax you into running and throwing short to and it's usually checked down to these running

181:37backs, right? like they've allowed the last two weeks nine and 14 catches to running backs uh because they're just making you check. They're just like,

181:44"Hey man, you're to make you check down that." And the thing about the 49ers that's really worked out to their benefit so far is they're so good at

181:50tackling. Um and it's really helped them in the run game. Like you said, they're baiting teams into run. They're giving up a high success rate, but that's it.

181:57Like three 3.9 yards per carry. They're 28th in yards allowed before contact to running backs, but they're number three in yards allowed after contact to

182:05running backs. M >> um and they they're they they're second they they're they're second in the NFL in rate of explosive runs allowed

182:12because of that. So like this feels like an Emanuel Wilson has 20 carries for 3.4 yards a carry, but like you know catches

182:20you have [laughter] Yeah. And you maybe gets a touchdown or two. Uh that's it.

182:27Like yeah, he's such a volume based play.

182:29>> Um >> yeah.

182:32>> Yeah. Actually, I I moved him up a little bit just, you know, talking through. I'm like, "Yeah, he's going to

182:37get a lot of work." Um, >> anything else on like I mean, this is not a spot I would be real interested in

182:43playing the the Seahawks receivers that aren't >> No. And there never is for fantasy.

182:47Like, what are you going to do here?

182:48>> I mean, you kind of Rashed need to run on a touchdown again. [laughter] >> They gave him another carry after he

182:54did.

182:54>> Yeah. You play the props. If you want Rasheed rushing, just play the props on those. Like, we're not going to We're

183:00not going to put any lines. We're not put in any lineups.

183:05>> Don't make it a DFS parlay. Just play the prop. Um, all right. We uh we have not forgotten about the wagon of the

183:13week. We just saved it for the last game. Uh, and we are ending with a with a good game here. Lions at Cardinals.

183:21Lions have an implied team total of 30.

183:25This is a true wagon.

183:28>> This is our wagon, baby. The wagon of the week. The team's [music] just rolling right now. This team is just

183:32they're wagon. They are [ __ ] wagon.

183:35We're going to have a nice old picnic.

183:37Load that wagon up. Like we're whatever you need to put in that wagon.

183:40>> They're wagon.

183:41>> Yeah. This is our wagon of the week, baby. What does that mean?

183:43>> What does wagon mean?

183:46>> This [laughter] week's video is just the the the reeves in that video both looks different from itself

183:55and from you.

183:59There's like multiple guys in there who are supposed to be you and [laughter] Lions wagon of the week. Man, this is

184:12this is >> the Cardinal defense really, I think, is is almost as much of a headline as the Lions offense. They're 31st in passing

184:20DVA DVOA, 31st in EPA, >> 25th in drop back success rate. They're terrible in coverage. They're not getting a ton uh of of a pass rush, but

184:30really, I mean, yeah, the coverage is is the reason why you can just rip through them. And um you know, Jared Goff has

184:37been pretty good this year. Uh some of his efficiency has come from playing, you know, kind of these like optimistic comebacks. Like you, it's possible

184:49they're not complete garbage time, but it's not likely. And you know, we saw him 91st percentile in EPA play against the Bills and that kind of setup. He was

184:5973rd percentile against the Panthers.

185:01But against the Jets, he was also 81st percentile. So, three weeks here uh where he's been really efficient.

185:07Obviously, his weapons are awesome.

185:09Where do you want to start here on the lines?

185:12>> Oh man, it's a it's all it's definitely this is the the perfect kind of defense for Jared Goff, right? Like it's a team

185:17that doesn't really rush the passer.

185:19They're they they want to play base defense. uh they want to, you know, let you just kind of like be a

185:26hyperefficient like offense against complet high completion rate, right?

185:30Like it's just a all checks all the boxes. It's indoors, like it's all the stuff you want like for Jared Goff and

185:36you know, we still have like the Lions defense like in play. Um yeah, when when golf hasn't been pressured this year,

185:4276% completion rate, eight yards pass attempt, seven touchdowns, zero interceptions. Uh Arizona's just like sitting in these two high shells at 73%

185:50of their snaps.

185:51>> Not really blitz.

185:52>> And they don't disguise coverage either.

185:53Like they're 29th in disguise. Like they're this is what you get like you know, uh Jared Goff in those situations. 72% completion rate, 8.7

186:03yards for pass attempt. So, it's just like it's just like all the boxes are checked here for like the Lions to be

186:08really efficient. I will say the one thing about the Lions that is a little frustrating right now is like they are

186:13starting slow every week.

186:15>> Like I don't know if like it's a script thing with Ping or like pet like they have to just be behind and like get on

186:21the gas a little bit, but like they've been really slow to start like the opening month of these games. And I

186:26would love for them to come out and uh because this is the game you want them to you want the the the Cardinals to win

186:31the toss kick. Lions get the ball, go down and score on like seven plays and now we're off. And we're off. That's

186:38what we want.

186:40>> Yeah. And it's interesting because they're not like the Lions sometimes have been very runheavy. Um they're a 1% pass rate over expected, 4% on first and

186:5110. Um and you know, they've had a a fairly high 64% expected pass rate.

186:57That's a little bit above average. Um, normally the Lions have a lower expected pass rate and a lower pass rate because

187:04they're they've been a good team in the Dan Campbell era by and large. So, you know, it's kind of interesting that

187:10they're that they are starting slow like that. But, it is it's like they have to get down and then they just start chucking it and then

187:18it's like, oh, this is really working.

187:20And you know, I it's kind of similar to the Cardinals last year where Petting was the OC there where it's a better

187:26version of it, but like that was kind of the story. The second half is where we made our money on the Cardinals. Um, and

187:32that's been true of the line so far, too. Um, >> that's true. He's a in the first half, uh, Jared Goff's the QB 15 in fantasy

187:39points in first half. Um, he's QB3 in the second half.

187:42>> So, second half Lions props with Rasheed Chahed rushing touchdown. That's what you're telling. [laughter] Yeah, that's how it's been so far.

187:51>> Yeah, >> but we need them to drive though because the Cardinals need steering.

188:00We need steer.

188:02>> Yeah. Uh well, let's on the on the line side, I'll I'll note Jame Williams um 90th percentile in open score. He has

188:13not been, you know, super consistently targeted, but he has this kind of deep threat role. Uh, his AOT 14.5.

188:22Last year was more like, hey, we're going to use him like more intermediate and more well-rounded, and that that hasn't really fully translated to this

188:29year. Is it kind of more back to the true deep threat kind of guy? I mean, he does get some intermediate targets and

188:34stuff, but it's not like, you know, a priority to get him involved at all depths. It seems like it's it's more

188:41Aman Rah dominating as as us. I I mean that's kind of the way it's always going to be. Amra is amazing.

188:47>> But I do have some I think Williams is intriguing here. If like we're talking about the Lions are really cooking.

188:53Jared Goff has time to throw. Terrible static defense. Not in disguise static defense. Uh you know they don't blitz.

189:02Like this could be a really good Williams game.

189:06>> He's got to be at least on the board. So he's tracking right now and you know we record this on Fridays um Friday

189:13afternoons and like he's tracking to not be popular at all from like the one player not with getting any steam is

189:18because he's priced in like a nebulous zone like he's below Michael Wilson who's going to be really popular.

189:24>> Yeah, he'll be really popular.

189:24>> Um so he's kind of flying through but like I even wrote up like you got like you can't like in these types of spots

189:29like just you can't like leave him out completely like you can't have a zero% Jameson Williams in these spots. So, the

189:36fact that the field's not even going to him, like you at least got to play through uh having him. Arizona, like I

189:41said, structurally they try to prevent big plays and they don't face a lot of targets downfield because of that, but the targets to downfield wide receivers.

189:48I mean, they're still 29th in completion rate a lot of them throws 20 or more yards downfield to wide receivers. The

189:53volume's lower because of the structure of their defense, but you can hit the big plays against them.

189:57>> Yeah.

189:59Yeah. And then, um Sam Leaporta looks very well set up here. Obviously, Alman Raw, like what what does there say other than like

190:07everyone's a jam?

190:09>> Everyone's a jam. This is a great spot for both I think Alman Raw and McBride.

190:13They both have these two uh like they're underperforming like their career efficiency rates right now by like a pretty significant amount. Like Alman

190:21Raw is at a career low eight point yards per target. Uh he's at 9.8 yards per catch or no, he's at 6.6 yards per

190:28target. His career low, his previous career low is eight, I'm sorry. And he's at 9.8 yards per catch. And then McBride's in the same boat where he's

190:34averaging a career low uh yards per target and catch. He's like a full two yards below his yards per target last

190:40week. It's like their usage is still right where it should be. It's right where we want it. So it feels like this

190:44is a spot where we actually get some efficiency bounce back for both of these guys with the volume.

190:50>> Yeah. I think if you want to know if I'm in on the Lions, like do I think they're going to live up to expectations that

190:57week, just check the ranks and see if I ranked Isaac Tesla. And if I did, I'm in. [laughter] And I have him ranked over people. He's

191:06not even the last guy.

191:07>> He's not the last guy. [laughter] >> There's like five guys after him. So, yeah. I mean, this is it's just a really

191:14it's such a clean setup. Um I I do trust them to get going eventually, even if they don't uh you know, start off super

191:21hot. But um you know the the beautiful thing too with the Lions is that they don't have really a backup running back

191:31and there's only so much you want to give to Jir Gibbs as a runner and he's so good as a receiver that it's like you

191:39know in other situations where you have a I mean you take Bean Robinson if this team had Bejian Robinson who's obviously

191:45an awesome receiver too but if you wanted to just have a game go through Bejian Robinson and like if we just swap

191:51the back fields. They have both Robinsons. This game could you be like, "Oof, what if they just run the ball and

191:57the running backs score five touchdowns combined, but for some reason Brian gets three of them and BJ only gets two, you

192:03know, and all of a sudden this game what? This game just kind of isn't actually that fun." I I don't think that

192:10that is really a risk here with Gibbs. I mean, Gibbs can obviously go nuts and soak up a ton of the volume, but like

192:17golf is going to have a good game >> in most of those outcomes, too. It won't just be Gibbs. So, I mean, I think

192:23that's that's another thing to consider is you think about like how does this game not be fun? I I actually don't

192:28think it's because Gibbs has too good of a game, right?

192:31>> Certainly like Jameson Williams could be quiet, Almanra could be a bit quiet and those types of outcomes, but the game

192:36overall, you know, and that's not necessarily a slog where the where the Cardinals aren't scoring points. That's explosive plays from Gibbs, catches from

192:44Gibbs, the clock stops kind of stuff, you know, um if they're passing. And so, yeah, I I think the Cardinals should be

192:52able to put up points. I mean, another key part of this is that the Lions defense sucks. And it's not the pass

193:00rush's fault. They're first in quick pressure rate. They're first in quick pressure rate. And they still rank 28th in passing DVOA, 30th in EPA, and 31st

193:09in drop back success rate. Like they're the coverage, man. It's like when they don't get quick pressure, they're cooked. It's just like they [laughter]

193:18have no no hope.

193:20>> They get quick pressure.

193:21>> Yeah, they just don't have the bodies.

193:22Brian Branch isn't going to play his He started practicing at least. So like maybe there's some hope if you're telling yourself like like for the Lions

193:28like we're going to get some guys back, but like right now you're not. Um, yeah, they've allowed 25 plays of 20 or more

193:34yards. That's the most in the league.

193:36Now, the Cardinals have the fewest plays of 20 or more yards in the NFL. They only have five through four weeks. Uh,

193:42so we are asking the defense to do the lifting, but we also have the Jets game on the resume to say like, well, they

193:48let the Jets like really ramp up on them. So, maybe the Cardinals like a ramp up spot. What's that?

193:55>> Balls. Balls landing at Marvin Harrison's feet props.

193:59So, I know we get three of those.

194:01>> Yeah, we're get three of those for sure.

194:03Um, there is like a like there is an avenue like we are asking the Lions defense to do a lot of lifting here, I

194:08think, because Brousett's been awful.

194:10Um, no explosive plays.

194:13>> Yeah. Yeah, I believe they're going to do their part, too. I actually do, too.

194:16Uh, but no Paris Johnson. He's out for the year with uh um >> torn biceps.

194:21>> Yeah, torn biceps. Uh, and we've seen this offensive line collapse before. And like you said, the one >> he's their best pass protector, by the

194:27way. And the one thing the Lions can do is rush the passer like you said. So like there's there's your avenue for

194:32like how this gets dumb like in the like the Lions are going to do their part regardless. But this is how it gets dumb

194:38for like the Cardinal side uh is if they just like are getting wrecked with quick pressure.

194:44>> I agree. But I think that just kind of keeps it tame rather than makes it terrible cuz like where it like truly

194:50fails because like the Cardinals last week Brassette was awful last week. They had a - 4% pass rate of expected, minus

194:569% on first and 10, which is, you know, that that sucks some volume out of the game, but it's not like they went crazy,

195:04you know, Chargers level like let's get this over with kind of stuff. And they also they're the 10th fastest team in

195:12pace. And then the thing is the Lions defense opponents averaging are averaging a 68% pass rate, 6% pass rate over expected, a 5% shift to the pass,

195:24and the fastest pace in the NFL. Like we've we've done this with Dan Campbell now. The whole league knows who Dan

195:30Campbell is. And it's not a bit This is who he is. Like to his core, he's trying to score more points than you and he's

195:36well aware that his his defense can't can't stop you. So he's going to try.

195:41Like I do believe that Dan Campbell it like and this is a guy as well we've seen in games where they get out in

195:48front they keep the pedal to the floor.

195:50They try to put up it's like we're going to try to score 50 here.

195:53>> You know may some of that was probably Ben Johnson who's a maniac too but >> you know I do think that we can count on

195:58the Lions to to continue to try to put up points. And so like unless the Cardinals are just truly getting trounced and embarrassed and it's like

196:08kind of the like let's pull the starters type stuff, >> I think you you have to pass. You have to pass against the Lions. You have to

196:16put up points or you're not going to hang with the Lions. Like >> that Dan Campbell is not in denial about

196:22what the I wonder if part of him enjoys it. you know that they >> he's I mean I go back to that week too

196:28like he fully understands like it that they're not going to get stops right now. Like he fully is aware that that

196:35they're not stopping anyone.

196:39>> I I mean >> and I like that. I respect that. I respect that he's like not trying to be like he's like dude like we got to score

196:44every drive. Like our the way our the way we're performing right now, we need to score every possession.

196:48>> But he's like broadcasting that. Yes.

196:51and then and then living by it and then the opponent I think it it becomes contagious where like if you're playing

196:57the Lions, you know, they know that you're expected to score every drive. So like you better cuz they're playing really aggressive on

197:06offense and it just it's like they're they're just turning every game into a shootout, you know? And some of these, like I said, they're like kind of fake

197:15shootouts where the Lions are going to lose most likely, but like that's fine.

197:18That's honestly fine with me. Again, we talked about it like you made the point.

197:21It's like it listen, the whole game is cosmetic. [laughter] It's fine. It's all >> It's totally cool.

197:28Totally cool.

197:29>> This production was sort of fake. Yep.

197:31Nope. Still count the same.

197:32>> I [laughter] got all I got all those fake points. Got all those fake points.

197:36They all counted.

197:37>> They all count. [laughter] Um on uh on the Cardinal side, uh how you feeling about the weapons? I mean, um,

197:48McBride McBride is projecting nuts this week. Uh, >> oh, yeah.

197:52>> You know, I I I mean, I I have Bowowers ranked ahead, but I maybe should change that. It is just such a a high upside.

198:01>> In PPR, I did put McBride, Dude, McBride's receiving prop is seven and a half catches, right? Like, [snorts] uh, which is pretty [laughter] pretty

198:08I only I mean, I think he's going to smoke it, too. But, uh, dude, I mean, he's facing the Lions have allowed the

198:14most points to tight ends through four weeks of any team ever.

198:19>> Like, >> wow.

198:20>> It's it like and you know, it was even pretty mild on Sunday. They only allow eight.

198:24>> Well, they played the P. Panthers don't really I mean, >> they had eight for 56 still for the like, you know, eight for 56, but they

198:29they've allowed a league high 37 catches. Uh, >> McMillan went nuts so much. I didn't realize.

198:34>> Yeah. Oh, yeah. There was a point in the I thought McMillan was going to have 25 catches at one point in that game and

198:39then like again at least like a team finally originally like hey this dude has 14 targets against us like we should

198:44probably make like do something else like but again like the Texans were like what if just Kamari last year could just

198:49keep getting [ __ ] cooked by CD Lamb like awesome like maybe we should double this dude no man not going

198:55to do that at least the Lions tried uh a little bit and they only let T only have like what four second half targets after

199:04like he has get uh at halftime. But yeah, they're just getting cooked. And like I said, this is a spot for McBride, I think, to get he's

199:10had the the role has been awesome. The volume's s been there. He's been a little bit light on like the explosives

199:16and efficiency.

199:24And Michael Wilson just has such a dominant secondary role where it's kind of a 1 A1B anyways because it's like he's at 37 34% targets the last two

199:32weeks and the week before that at 20 in Seattle at 27%.

199:36>> Yeah.

199:36>> So it's just like and we've seen Detroit I mean every wide receiver won dude has cooked them. All 10 for 182 Garrett

199:44Wilson 10 for 107 a touchdown 13 targets for Garrett Wilson 13 targets for Lav Ted had 16 targets and 14 for 192 and

199:52two. In week two, DJ Moore left after nine routes. Uh, and if you want to use transitive property, I guess Keon

199:57Coleman six for 63 is like pretty awesome.

199:59>> I think I think it's allowed.

200:00>> Yeah, like >> that shouldn't happen. [laughter] >> It's getting it's getting so I think it's the two I know people are going to

200:08try to do the Marvin Harrison thing, but like dude, he had no targets though.

200:12Like there's just no targets here. He could score a touchdown. Like absolutely you can get a touchdown on Marvin Harrison. He had a couple red zone

200:19targets last >> score a touchdown, dude. And it didn't matter.

200:22>> He scored 8.2 PPR points with the touchdown.

200:27>> He doesn't have a He doesn't have a double digit target rate in any game since at all. Right. Is it just since

200:32week one or am I wrong? It's >> I have a 10% targets per out run in week three. But >> in week that's his season high.

200:39>> Yeah. It's just And he's playing he's playing every play just about.

200:43>> Yeah. 87% round participation on the season. 0.60 yards per route run. They've made no effort to get him the ball. They He's

200:53just a straightup sacrificial X. Like they don't care about trying to get him targets. Um he might and probably shouldn't be on the team by the end of

201:02the season, but for now, >> you know, I was going to say he could he's kind of helping open up coverage, but he's he's

201:10actually not doing that anymore. The Chargers double covered him a lot, but his double cover rate have have cratered since. So the defense even knows that

201:19you don't have to send coverage his way.

201:21Um if they leave him wide open, you know, purs [laughter] might leave him wide open,

201:31>> but the the connection with has been really bad. So >> yeah, >> I mean I don't he needs to score a

201:38touchdown to matter because his target rate won't be high enough. And it's like one of those things he can seriously score a touchdown. I haven't looked at

201:45the salaries yet. Like I don't know what's he priced at, but it can't be like he could score a touchdown on that

201:52matter because it literally just happened last week.

201:54>> Me and Pete were talking about this. I firmly believe he's going to be higher own than Jameson Williams. Like m I I

202:00think he's going to be because because one he's [clears throat] cheap he's he's cheaper. He's 4,400.

202:05>> I mean that is really cheap.

202:07>> And people are also playing this game through brassette more than golf. So, like I think they're natur So, yeah, I

202:13also think that I brought up the same point, but I think those two things are going to make him more rostered than

202:19James Williams. I'm not saying Jameson Williams is like you have to roster him like he's some kind of lock, but like

202:23there is no format that you you should be more bullish on Marvin Harrison Jr.

202:27than Jameson Williams.

202:29>> I agree. I [laughter] completely agree.

202:35>> Yeah, >> it is so funny because like in drafts they didn't go that far apart. I mean, a couple rounds.

202:39>> That is true. But uh >> like they were not they were in the same ballpark and they are not in the same

202:44ballpark anymore, man.

202:46>> It has been brutal.

202:47>> No, not at all.

202:49>> But that's really it. I'm just playing through those two guys largely. Very bullish on those guys. And I understand like the back the backfield's kind of

202:56messy.

202:57>> Um the one thing that I failed to account for is that Tyler Algier's the passing down back and like he is the

203:06passing down back and he's not getting targets though. He's He only has 10 targets on the year, but he now has

203:13played 67% of the snaps in the two-minute offense in either half. Love is at 15%. The Cardinals have run the ball on 48% of Jer Jeremiah Love's play

203:24snaps this year. 26.7% Alier snaps. This is the most anti-alier usage I can imagine. Uh this is the weirdest role

203:34for a player that I can imagine. This happens though. Like Sam Perine was a two down banger >> and then he became a passing. I think if

203:43you're just in the league long enough, you become a passing down back.

203:47Like >> as long as you're not on a rookie deal, you're eligible. It doesn't matter what you >> the pastor. Like it's just like

203:53>> Yeah. You just have to It's just like you absor you like through osmosis, you just get or you know, I'm sure these

203:58guys are putting in a lot of work. So that's rude, but you know, at some point you just learn how to pass protect by,

204:04you know, understanding defenses better, right? I mean, if you if you try.

204:09>> So, >> but yeah, he's played 37 of 56 third downs. Love's played 18. Like, it's really cra but it the thing is is that

204:16role he's not doing anything with it because they're not targeting him. But like it also prevents Jeremiah Love from like having like this get out of jail

204:23free card of like I'll just stack on seven catches this game. like it'll be cool like because they can't run they're

204:30ter you know so it's it's a >> we were talking before the show about like Genty and his efficiency metrics and not looking healthy

204:37>> and clearly he's not healthy he might not play this week >> but love I mean love like literally said play someone else who's playing better

204:45to his coaches last week so the ankle and he talk about how is this gonna be the longest season of his life like he's

204:51>> he's not healthy right now and I do think >> you know That's the the passing down note is a really good one because his

204:59his rout participation has has peaked at 41% even in week three when he was he had 78% of the carries. So that's just

205:05like that's just his role.

205:07>> That's really good to note. But I also am just nervous about like how many carries does he get because he seems pretty bummed out about

205:15his ankle. Um I do not you know if I'm playing a guy in DFS I don't want him pulling himself out of the game.

205:23>> Correct.

205:25Yeah, I don't think that he's I don't think that he's playable in DFS just because the the >> his price has gone up every week since

205:31the game he did good. Um, and then like I feel like you just like his only angle is he has to have an he has to have long

205:39touchdowns or multiple touchdowns and it's just kind of hard to just bet on that in this offense in general. But the

205:45Lions might acquies. So, if you want to squint, then talk to that app. But it's like I ended up like, you know, two

205:51weeks ago we were really excited and like it's kind of just been like leveled out.

205:56>> Yeah, I'm not excited this week. I'm excited to be excited again, [laughter] but I'm not there right now. Um, and

206:06I think, yeah, for him, like if this becomes just they're in obvious passing situations all the time, and that means Tyler Algier is going to be out there,

206:15you know, that that's a rough spot to be in with. It's like, hey, this game's shooting out and Jeremiah Love hasn't

206:21been on the field this entire series.

206:23Like, that is >> Yep.

206:25>> I I know what those sweats feel like and they suck. [laughter] So, >> and you can't even play it inversely

206:30because Alier's playing those snaps and they're not throwing it to him.

206:33>> Yeah. [laughter] Yeah. It's not like Alier's a play.

206:36>> Yeah. It just I mean honestly Wilson and McBride are eating >> on those on those snaps. So think I might play those guys.

206:43>> You might you should probably play the guys the team is trying to throw the ball to. [laughter] >> It's not the way I would say to play.

206:50>> Shame we buried that point three and a half hours in because that's pretty pretty fundamental.

206:55>> [laughter] >> This is what you come for this level of analysis.

206:59>> I mean, in all honesty, that is what a lot of this stuff boils down to. Burst rate, target rate, all that stuff. It's

207:05like, hey, who does the team want to have the ball?

207:08>> Um, [laughter] all right, man. I think we we've done it.

207:13>> Let's get out of here. Uh, tell the people about the worksheet and all this great stuff you got over at Sharp

207:19Football Analysis.

207:20>> Yeah, Sharp Football Analysis. Writing up these games, uh, adjusting for injuries. We also do have a promo this week. If you go to sharp.foot football,

207:27there's a promo for $5 for week five that you guys could check out um all these writeups. So, if you're if you're

207:33wondering if you just start Jeremy Bernard or Isaac Tesla, I wrote them both up. So, >> beautiful. [laughter] I wrote I wrote

207:39them both up too over at Legendary Upside. Check out the walkthrough. Uh the cover boy uh you know that that game

207:45is always above the payw wall there. So, you can you can check out the Patriots and the Raiders game uh this week. And

207:52uh I will I will have the Monday night football walkthrough and the London game walkthrough out tomorrow morning. Matt Herby has you covered for the Sunday

208:01night walkthrough as well as the Thursday game uh which is obviously already played out. But uh yeah, we've got you covered with all the games over

208:09at Legendary Upside Rankings, all that good stuff as well. Uh check out Steph Miller's Waver waiverwire article which is absolutely excellent every week. Um

208:18you can check that all out legendary.com. Appreciate you guys watching. Um, heading over to the site and and checking over checking out uh

208:25the sites, I should say, checking out our stuff is the best way to support the pod. But, you know, please like,

208:30subscribe, do all that good stuff. Uh, help more people see this longass show.

208:35Thanks for watching and we'll see you for week six next week. Good luck in week five.

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