Top Guy Tuesday Mailbag - OL Injuries and Ascendent Rookies

Pat Kerrane identifies AJ Brown as a target for a second-round draft pick, noting that simulation models often favor him in specific draft builds.

Alec Pierce is often ranked lower than his ADP, leading the sidekick tool to bury him in the rankings.

Pat Kerrane includes Amon-Ra St. Brown as part of a high-end wide receiver-wide receiver start in his current draft strategy. However, the speaker notes they have stopped aggressively adding him to their portfolio because his ADP has risen significantly since they were drafting him in the 200s.

Breece Hall is a potential target in the Eliminator format, where running backs generally carry higher value and tend to be drafted earlier than in other formats.

Pat Kerrane highlights Brock Bowers as a high-upside tight end target, noting that the Raiders' passing game could run through him. Kerrane believes Bowers offers a significant fantasy advantage in an offense expected to take a step forward.

Charlie Kolar is utilized as a floor play in five-tight-end roster builds to mitigate the risk of benching for quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Jacoby Brissett, or Malik Willis.

The injury to Chris Brooks hurts Puka. So's portfolio as they were heavily invested in him, though he may still appear at the end of drafts.

Chris Godwin is being added to the target list due to positive training camp reports, making him a viable option in the eighth round.

The speaker explicitly states they do not have much exposure to Chris Olave in their current draft portfolio, indicating they are not heavily invested in him at his current price point.

The speaker has raised their outlook on Chris Rodriguez Jr. and considers him a decent pick now that his ADP has fallen significantly.

Dalton Kincaid is selected as the TE1 in the mock draft context.

Pat Kerrane identifies Darnell Washington as a threshold player for elite tight ends, noting the Steelers' offense could potentially run through him. In late-round tight end builds, he is valued for his stability; while not expected to be an 'absolute smash,' he is unlikely to be a healthy scratch, making him a better option than the weak late-round running back crop.

Deebo Samuel is a preferred value pick over Stefon Diggs, as he is available approximately 30 picks later in drafts. Pat Kerrane also notes that if Samuel were to guarantee 275 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns, he would warrant a draft position in the 90s or 100s, assuming standard receiving production.

The source has increased their exposure to Denzel Boston following positive camp reports, noting they successfully waited for a cheaper price point before buying in. The team confirms they have been actively drafting him and consider him a successful target in their current strategy.

Pat Kerrane maintains a cautious stance on Derrick Henry, noting that Legendary Upside does not have high exposure to him in their simulations. While not a 'full fade,' the team does not draft him heavily, though they acknowledge that simulation variance can lead to different outcomes depending on the specific model run.

Drake London is being considered as a potential next pick in the current draft scenario.

Puka. So is actively drafting Drake Maye in the Big Eliminator format. While the speaker notes that being too heavily invested in Maye previously hurt their exposure to Jayden Daniels, and that a sidekick tool suggests avoiding 100% exposure to Maye when choosing between him and Joe Burrow due to stack correlation and frequency, they remain committed to drafting him.

Hunter Henry is considered overpriced at an ADP of 130, as his value is only justifiable if he benefits from injuries to others, despite his current role as a primary receiver.

Hunter Renfrow is considered undervalued at his current draft position; the speaker argues he should be a sixth-round pick given his role and the team's investment in him.

Ja'Marr Chase is selected with the 1.03 pick in the Big Eliminator tournament draft.

Jakobi Meyers is viewed as being best cast as a wide receiver three, contributing to a spread-out target environment for the team's pass catchers.

Jalen McMillan is the speaker's highest-drafted player and a portfolio staple. With Michael Pittman Jr. and DK Metcalf banged up, McMillan is seeing first-team reps. Despite Roman Wilson technically being ahead on the depth chart, the speaker believes McMillan will provide significant value relative to his free ADP.

While it makes sense for James Cook to see increased pass-catching usage, Josh Allen's mobility and ability to push the ball downfield mean the offense doesn't necessarily need to force targets to the running back. Cook has been running hot with long touchdowns and surprising goal-line usage, which helps mitigate regression risk, but he is not viewed as an 'insane smash' pick at his current ADP and is projected to have a poor outlook in the upcoming Leg Up write-up.

The speaker identifies Jayden Daniels as a past example of a player they were high on and believed would "smash," but failed to draft enough of due to an over-attachment to other prospects like Drake Maye during that same draft cycle.

Jaden Higgins is identified as a player who is often ranked lower than his ADP, leading the sidekick tool to bury him in the rankings.

Jeremiah Love is frequently drafted in the third round, even though taking him ahead of Nico Collins feels counterintuitive to the drafter.

Joe Burrow is considered a more optimal draft choice than Drake Maye in specific stacking scenarios, as the sidekick tool accounts for factors like stack correlation and frequency.

Josh Allen's mobility and tendency to push the ball downfield as a non-traditional pocket passer influence the Bills' offensive structure, potentially limiting the necessity for a high-volume target share for running backs like James Cook.

Josh Jacobs is viewed as a fragile fantasy asset due to injury concerns and a clear risk of suspension, leading the analysts to remain cautious despite his fourth-round ADP. While he remains a viable pick to anchor a running back room, the suspension risk is a significant concern.

Kyler Murray faces high benching risk if the team misses the playoffs and he performs poorly, though he still pops as a good pick in current simulations. He was also mentioned in training camp performance comparisons regarding whether JJ McCarthy outplayed him.

Pat Kerrane expects Ladd McConkey to play in Week 1. Although he is recovering from a hamstring injury and may ramp up slowly, Kerrane does not believe he will miss the season opener.

Luther Burden is considered a strong fifth-round target in the Big Eliminator format; despite potential for missing early games, he is expected to be available early in the season and carries significant breakout potential.

Pat Kerrane estimates a 20% chance that Malik Nabers misses Week 1 due to injury. Despite initial skepticism, the speaker adjusted their stance after realizing Nabers was healthier than reported, leading to an aggressive drafting strategy in the early third round.

MarShawn Lloyd is considered a very good fantasy pick. The analysts have been high on him for a while, consistently ranking him ahead of his ADP, which was in the 180s at the time of their initial analysis. He is currently rocketing up draft boards, making him harder to secure in the late rounds (14th-15th) as drafters become thirsty for running back depth.

Michael Wilson is identified as a player who is often ranked lower than his ADP, leading the sidekick tool to bury him in the rankings.

Parker Washington has had a strong training camp and is clearly part of the team's plans. Puka. So is actively targeting him in the early sixth round, noting that the team is intentionally finding ways to get him and Hunter on the field together. Projections have been raised multiple times recently due to his valuable slot role and potential for Brian Thomas Jr. to play more outside.

Pat Bryant is a recommended 13th-round target who has had a good camp and is currently the most likely candidate to serve as the WR3 in the Denver offense. The source has increased their draft exposure to him in response to positive training camp news.

Pat Kerrane notes that while Puka Nacua remains an optimal fourth-round pick even with potential suspension risk, the speaker is personally low on him at his current ADP. The speaker argues that Nacua's training camp performance has been merely 'fine' compared to his dominant showing last year, and they do not believe he will reach the first-round breakout status his current price implies. Additionally, Nacua is being monitored for an undisclosed injury sustained in practice.

The analysts admit they could have been more aggressive in their rankings regarding Stefon Diggs' move to the Commanders. He was not a primary target because they preferred other receivers like Deebo Samuel, who was available 30 picks later, as well as Hunter and Amari Cooper, who were cheaper options. They do not expect to be leading the charge on Diggs in their rankings.

The speaker has aggressively increased exposure to Tyjae Spears following positive training camp news. The team appears to be moving toward using him as the lead back, and the speaker is actively trying to get overweight on him.