Fantasy Football Expert Learns How to ACTUALLY Beat Prediction Markets (Kalshi & Polymarket)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
19 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 27, 2026
Published
Mon, July 27, 2026
0
Player insights
0
Players mentioned
Player analysis
Player insights
No player insights have been extracted for this episode yet.
Full transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00What's going on everybody? Football is not too far away. If you're anything like me, you want to bet a few of your
0:05hard-earned dollars on it, okay? But I don't know about you, if you've been paying any attention to social media, advertisements, what have you,
0:12there's all these prediction markets out there now. There's Kalshi, there's Polymarket, and I see more and more people going towards I've seen the
0:17numbers that they're actually pulling in these prediction markets, and to be quite frank with you, I don't know what the difference between a prediction
0:23market and a sports book is, but I'm interested in it for actually able to get, you know, better odds, better payouts, all the things that again help
0:29us get a little bit more money as we're trying to have fun here on NFL Sunday.
0:32So, brought in my guy Billy Coleman to help answer those questions because, again, Billy, it's one of these things, man, where it feels like in the last
0:39year or so, I mean, nobody knew what Kalshi or Polymarket was, and now like they're in your face everywhere.
0:44>> It's really exploded, Ian, and appreciate you having me on and happy to kind of dive into like, you know, looking like when I was watching the
0:50World Cup, how many times did you see a Kalshi or a Polymarket advertisement in between the hydration break, or just on
0:58the boards, on the signage all around the stadium?
1:02Um it's really becoming at the forefront, and you know, obviously like with Kalshi, their whole mantra is like you can trade on anything, and you and
1:08you literally can. And so, there's going to be some interesting use cases and what you know, the tool that we're going
1:14to dive into today is the Odd Shoem Traders Tool. And there's just some real interesting use cases for this tool because, you know, normally, you know,
1:22your your average sports better like me or you, you think just to go to FanDuel or DraftKings, but you know, for some
1:28people that have very high bank rolls, where they're looking to wager tens of thousands of dollars, not all the time is maybe your FanDuel
1:36or DraftKings going to be maybe optimal for you to be able to get that kind of money down. And so, that's where
1:41prediction markets just opens up a whole new world, where you're able just to trade on anything peer-to-peer, and so, it's very advantageous,
1:51and this tool is just going to really be able where I'm really excited to dive into this tool. So, I'm just going to
1:55pause there, but that's what we're going to talk about today is how you can utilize this tool and make some money
2:01off of it. And, you know, if I if if you ever heard you know, when it comes like to sports betting like, you know, the
2:06the tout services?
2:08>> Yeah.
2:09>> And so, like normally touts get a bad rap, right? Because we don't you know, a couple things like with touts is they're
2:15people that sell their picks.
2:17And you know, normally you never see, you know, what they're wagering on. They give you a pick, but you never see them
2:22place the bet or you don't really know if they're >> you how good They tell you how good they've been and hopefully they're
2:26telling you the truth.
2:27>> Listen, it's the mortal max mega nuke of the of the day. Put the mortgage on it.
2:32Like, you can't lose. Well, here the difference is is this is kind of like a tout service, but the difference is that
2:38OddsJam is able to actually locate and find profitable traders, individuals that are on Polymarket, Kalshi, Novig, Profit X, that are actually trading that
2:49have a positive ROI. So, the cool thing with this tool is we can peel back the curtain with individuals and see
2:56how many trades they're getting down, what they're trading on, what's their ROI, unlike a tout service where you're really just taking it at face value from
3:04that individual. You don't really know.
3:07>> And Billy, that's kind of one of the things I feel like excites me about this. While prediction markets, they're new, so we don't quite again, at least
3:13me, like I don't feel like I have a great handle on it. The more I learn about it though, everything with them seems to be public.
3:19So, it's actually more information getting it from the prediction markets than we would with the sports book. And from what I can understand, again, that
3:25whole peer-to-peer kind of caveat you threw in there, that's good for us cuz we're not even betting necessarily against a sports book, we're
3:33betting against other individuals now.
3:34So, seemingly, at least I would think we're not facing the same sort of risk of getting limited.
3:39>> Exactly. So, that that that the relationship is completely different.
3:42With a traditional recreational sports book like a FanDuel or a DraftKings, it's an adversarial relationship. They make it seem like it's awesome on on
3:50Hey, you know, we're going to make a bunch of money here, but if you lose your bet, then that means DraftKings
3:55made money off you. And if you win your bet, then DraftKings loses money. But here with prediction markets, it's more kind of like a casino relationship where
4:04they want you to trade as much as you can because they're just going to take a little rake or fee off the top of the
4:09winning better. So, if you win your bet, you're going to have to pay just a small percentage back to them. So, it's a it's
4:15a very advantageous relationship with with us with The more you trade, the more money that they make. They're happy that you're
4:22using the platform, and you're happy because you're never going to be capped at all on anything. If they offer a market, you can wager trillions of
4:31dollars if you wanted to. And so, obviously they offer a crazy menu. What we're going to be focused on today is
4:37going to be just sports-related, and then you're also we're going to see some non-sports things for those of you that maybe like to get into politics or maybe
4:44entertainment. But um happy to kind of dive into this tool cuz there's a lot that's happening on the screen here. And
4:50I know we've been looking at this eSports play for a while, but what we're kind of looking at here, if you will
4:55indulge, is basically just this this green score here. This is just a confidence score based off of Odds Jam.
5:00And so, they have all of these plays here rated in terms of obviously the higher the confidence score, the more that we have confidence in it.
5:07>> Is that a zero to 100? 100's the best.
5:09>> Zero to 100, but basically with Odds Jam, they kind of keep it at like 70s the is is a zero, and then all the way
5:15up to 100. So, really 70's going to be the lowest score that you'll see.
5:19And then, you know, this kind of explains it here as, you know, what we're actually trading on. This is eSports. We're down here in Major League
5:24Baseball, the event.
5:26Then what's going on, the two teams that are happening in this event, and then the actual market that we're trading on.
5:31So, a lot of money lines. So, what you're going to see a lot with the Traders Tool, these are a lot of main
5:36line markets. So, you're not going to see a lot of player props. In a previous video that he and I went through,
5:41you're going to see some player props on like Odds Jam Sharp Money Tool. What's going to be flooded on this page is
5:45money line plays.
5:47And what you're going to then see is with the side that we're looking to trade on. In this blue little symbol
5:52here, this is Polymarket. Like you mentioned, we can track Polymarket. We can you know, they have a public API where you can see exactly
6:00who's trading on what and what they're trading on like a blockchain.
6:03>> And how much they're making?
6:05>> Yeah, exactly. And how much they're making. So, Vents here at at 2:00 p.m.
6:09um Eastern time and this trader put down almost $15,000 on esports on money line.
6:14Right?
6:15And so that's that's pretty crazy within itself. And then all of this up here at the top is kind of then regurgitated
6:21over here on the right-hand side.
6:22>> Okay.
6:23>> And so what you're going to notice is you know, this is the bet size.
6:25Oddsmaker also has these nice little captions here that kind of explain in the description the relative bet size.
6:30This is seven times more than what they normally the trader would trade on. So, obviously they have a lot of confidence
6:37in this play. And what's most important >> consider like a high confidence number for that, Billy? Sorry to cut you off.
6:43Like is three times still something is three times something where like that's good enough for you or are you looking for maybe five x or more?
6:49>> So, a relative bet size is definitely going to be like one. So, think of it for like for my unit betters out there
6:54like one unit. That's like your standard bet. One to three units or one to three x relative bet size, obviously this
7:01trader has some confidence on it. In my opinion, once we get past like to five x or beyond, then then there's there's just a an
7:09insane amount of confidence here with this trader. And there's a few things that I really like about this. Is number one, this trader has a low amount of
7:19trades. And when we're going to go through maybe some other examples, we're going to see maybe that this trade number might get into the 5,000, 10,000,
7:2715,000 range. And for those viewers that are watching this, anything that you see that's 5,000 trades or beyond, there's a very high
7:34chance that the individual is using a bot.
7:37So, when we see 360 trades, this means that this person's really just sitting down in front of the screen, whether it's their phone or their laptop,
7:44they're spending time actually placing this. Obviously, we can see their top category is esports.
7:49>> The problem if it is a bot is that that's going to really limit our potential to actually make those trades
7:54in a meaningful way because I know that other number spillage over there. To me, the way I interpret it is like, you
7:59know, oh, I hear that under 50 in the Cowboys, you know, Commanders game is the play here. But by the time I get to
8:04my sports book or whatever, it's all already down to 48 or, you know, 48 and a half or something like that. Slippage
8:10helps kind of tell us is this still a good value or not?
8:13>> Exactly because if if or you that 50 and a half is not minus 110 anymore, it's minus 140. And and that makes a big
8:19difference because, you know, you the average person might say, well, who cares? Well, that we're getting less money put in our pocket when that under
8:26hits.
8:27So, when maybe Aubrey misses that game winning field goal. But >> Hey, so >> So, for here, the slippage is really
8:33important because obviously, you know, it's just like your stop your stoplight.
8:36Green's good, yellows meh, and then red we really just don't want to mess around with. So, we are still price sensitive to a
8:43degree, but I want people to think about we have a bit more of a range, some wiggle room to work with when it comes
8:48to the slippage. And so, this little graph down here is going to tell us that the trader entered this and got this
8:54play at 84.2 cents. You're like, whoa, hold on, buddy. What are we talking about 84.2 cents? So, OGM has down here
9:02on the right-hand side this calculator section, and we have a prediction markets calculator. I have it pulled up over here. So, when we type in like
9:0984.2, whether you use fraction, decimal, or American odds, this is going to break it down for you in like layman's terms of
9:17like, oh, okay, that's minus 533 American odds.
9:21>> Okay.
9:21>> And so, you know, when we go back to this play, you know, betting on a minus 533, that's a heavy favorite. That means
9:27we have an 84% chance of winning this bet.
9:31But, you know, these are plays that this person has a lot of confidence in.
9:35They're bringing back almost an 11% ROI on e-sports and we're being recommended to bet e-sports which is their top category.
9:44So for me, we're going to dive into this like, "Okay, the play's good, but like how much money should we wager on this?"
9:51>> Mhm.
9:51>> And so [clears throat] we get into that portion of it, you know, we talk about units. I like to think of this as a unit sizing. And so,
9:59okay, well then you're going to bet if you see that this person has a high ROI of 5% or higher, they're putting down a
10:05massive bet size. I would be willing to put like a two-unit play on this. You still want to think about your bankroll
10:09here, you know, we're not putting the mortgage on one play because then that's gambling, right? It's not really edge betting. So uh
10:17>> Well again, also just just to be clear again, Odds Jam has already done the work here to figure out who is good. So
10:23like we're we're not looking at these individual bets going, "Well, is this guy betting it? Like does he know what they're talking about?" He
10:29we've established he knows what they're talking about. Now we're just trying to do that extra little layer of research to make sure that relative to the good
10:36traders trades, is this one of his top ones that he feels you know the strongest about.
10:41>> 100% and like we talked about touched on earlier with the tout service, this is like a service that you can actually
10:48see, "Oh, well this guy does really well in NBA totals, but he's bringing back a 5% ROI on MLB money lines. We're being
10:55told to bet the Braves right now." So yes, Odds Jam's done all the work here.
10:59You don't have to try to figure out is this legit? Is it good? Is do they win?
11:04No, no, cuz it's all publicly out there.
11:06So the the the way that I would say if you're looking at this Braves play and you're like, "Man, let's bet the Braves
11:11on the money line." Again, we're just going to come over to this calculator, type in 70 cents so you figure out it's
11:16at minus 233 odds. This trader entered this trade at 69 cents. You can see that the slippage is a positive number. So
11:24when it's a positive number, that means that we might not be able to get the same price that the trader got it at,
11:30but we're going to be pretty close. If you see a negative number here in slippage, that's actually really good for us. That means that the price that
11:37the trader got it at, the market moved against them cuz even though these traders are profitable, not every decision that they make, the market
11:43agrees with. So if it's a negative number here, we can get a better price.
11:47So the next thing I do is I just come over to the MLB games. And this game's starting up pretty soon.
11:53And so we're like, okay, well, we would like to get this at minus 233.
11:57You know, obviously there's maybe a book or two that we can get relatively a close price. I don't want to go to
12:03DraftKings and get this at minus 272.
12:06But we can get this at one book. Also, you know, on Kalshi, Polymarket, you do not have to accept, excuse me,
12:14the price that's available here. You can create a price. Maybe you get your order filled.
12:20So this is where I just start to peruse a little bit and I say, okay, well, maybe, you know, if I had access to
12:24this, I would go here. But this is where we just start to do a little price shopping cuz we're still worried about
12:29the price. Making sure we can get it relative to what the trader got it at.
12:34>> And also, Billy, I think the important thing you mentioned before, putting our whole bankroll on one bet, that is gambling, okay? This is a situation
12:40where, yeah, we're trying to do our due diligence for each individual bet, but we're going to want to build up a pretty
12:45big volume here if we can.
12:47>> Exactly. Ideally, we want to take almost every trade on this play or every trade on the screen here. And the more plays
12:53that we can capture that are from profitable traders, that's more advantageous for us. We want to diversify our portfolio. You don't want
13:00to put everything in Apple. Sometimes that's a good idea, sometimes it's not.
13:05So, you know, and and here, this is where when we get in the filter section, you could, you know, you want to look
13:10for plays for today or the next 7 days.
13:12Maybe you just want to talk about football, what's going to be coming up soon. You know, you can pick and choose
13:18whatever you want to go after.
13:20We also are going to get some, you know, not some political things, you guys are into that. Geopolitics, if you're not
13:27into that, that's fine.
13:29Tennis, whatever the case may be, we can go after this. So, there's a lot of different things that Odd this tool is
13:34going after, but the main thing is Odd Jam's identified profitable traders.
13:40They're going to show you plays right now, and be willing to have a little bit of forgiveness in terms of the price.
13:46You know, a couple cents here, a couple cents there in terms of a price.
13:49And this is a great tool because you can log in, see the plays, copy and paste them. Takes you five, maybe 10 minutes tops. You're not
13:59sitting in front of the screen all day long waiting for something to pop up.
14:04So, it really gives a nice healthy work-life balance or sports betting life balance, where you're able to know that you're getting plays that have an edge, and
14:12then you're able to go about your day.
14:14>> Cuz that's my thing. I don't, you know, I'm I want to make money, sure, but I don't want to devote 4 hours a night
14:19just to constantly scanning this, just trying to get it all in one. Makes sense to me, man. So, again, big takeaways for
14:25me here.
14:27Tout services on the surface, if we knew they were making money and doing a great job, are fine, but we don't know that.
14:33We do at prediction markets, and that's what we have established here. We basically curated the best prediction traders out there, and we've taken that
14:41extra step to go ahead and determine what are the best that they feel the strongest about, and we're a little just
14:45trying to tail that, Billy. We can bet on e-sports with confidence because we know who the really good e-sports traders are and what they feel good
14:53about.
14:54>> Exactly. And you're going to be able to bet this or trade this at scale. So, you're never going to have to worry
14:59about tap on the shoulder from a sports book saying, "Hey, you can only, you know, trade $50 or bet $100 here."
15:05You're never going to have to worry about that. And the last thing we I need to touch on here, this little projected
15:09number here, this is a great little tool here from Odd Jam that shows you your average bet size, whatever that is for you and the
15:17viewer out there. How many bets if you were to get down a day, this is just your range of outcomes.
15:22>> Mhm.
15:23>> And based off of two different medians that we offer, two different filter setups on Odds Jam, you guys can tinker
15:29around with this with the tool. And this is just a simulator that runs your profit, your 30-day profit based off of
15:36how much you're wagering.
15:38And obviously the more that you're wagering, this is a very profitable tool, the more trades that you can get down, the more that you're going to be
15:44able to make. So, you know, right now, you know, we're recording this in end of summer, you know, training camp's on its
15:50way for NFL.
15:51>> Yeah.
15:52>> When we start getting into like November and December, when we got football and everything else going on, I mean, this
15:57tool is going to be littered with plays.
15:59And so, the more plays that you get down that have an edge with a and and more volume that you have, the more that's
16:04going to work out for you profitability-wise.
16:08>> Absolutely love it, Billy. Again, guys, would love to have you sign up. We got a nice little 30% promo code you can see
16:13on the video, but I'd like for you to take our word for it, but also, there's a free trial here. You can go sign in
16:18and just at every single step, like you're going to log in to Odds Jam, do your free trial, and you're immediately
16:22going to have the opportunity to get one-on-one talks with some of our experts to kind of walk you through these on your own. So, again, Billy,
16:28like just been been very honest with you guys here, all right? I've not been a profitable gambler, but I want to be,
16:34and just the fact that these tools, which yeah, you know, I work for the company, okay? But you can see it for
16:39yourself. You can talk to them yourself.
16:41You can try it out yourself for free. I I freaking love it, man.
16:45>> Yeah, it's going to it's going to open up a whole new world for you. And there's so many other markets that
16:49again, you don't have to know anything about e-sports or tennis to be able to make money. You just have to follow people that are in sync with
16:57the market and those sports, and that's what this tool tells you to do, and then you're just riding their coattails, making money.
17:04>> Letting someone else do all that hard work, and then just taking the play, and it's all legal. It's all limit-free.
17:10Absolutely love it, Billy. So, any other things you want to highlight with this tool man?
17:13>> No, just really looking forward to football season, seeing this tool pop up a lot more, but guys, obviously any questions, don't be afraid to drop a
17:19comment below and ask because I know that there's a lot here with this tool, but it's pretty simple. Follow the plays, tail the
17:27plays, make sure that you're sticking to a somewhat of a unit size so that you're not going off the rails on one specific
17:33play. No matter how much you love a specific play on the screen, stick to that unit sizing and you're just going
17:39to slowly start to see the profits go up.
17:43>> And hey guys, I know a lot of my channel is going to be more sis fancy football content. But as we get in the season,
17:48Bill and I Bill and I will be breaking down games, going through injuries. And I just want to give you guys some
17:52winners as we are honestly just going through our weekly schedule as we have more football games populated or random basketball game cuz who doesn't want to
17:59make a little bit of cash here or there.
18:01So again, very much invite you guys to check out all this for yourself. I'm not going to be spending 60-minute shows
18:06just going through line by line every single bet, but certainly we'll be giving away some freebies. And again, just looking forward to God forbid God
18:13forbid, man. I don't win every single fantasy league I entered this year. I'm looking forward to at least making some extra cash on the side thanks to our
18:20friends over at Odds Jam. But that's going to wrap up this edition of again highlighting some of Odds Jam's very very cool tools. Again, 30% off if you
18:26want to use that code right here on the screen. Also, make sure you check out that free trial because it's free. It's
18:31a trial. Why not go ahead for that? So for Billy Football, I'm Ian. Thanks again for tuning in and until next time,
18:36take care everybody.
