Who does Vegas think will be the best NFL offenses in 2026?
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Jul 29, 2026
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Wed, July 29, 2026
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0:00Today, I'm breaking down who Vegas believes will be the top offenses ahead of the 2026 NFL season. And we can do
0:06this because these sports books are sick enough to already have individual game spreads out there for every single matchup throughout the regular season.
0:14So, by taking each matchup's game total with that spread, we can actually calculate who Vegas is implying to score how many points, take it over the course
0:21of the entire season, and voila, we have these Vegas offensive ranks. So top starting off at one going all the way to
0:2832. The Los Angeles Rams. Yeah, they just finished first. Why wouldn't they be there again? Pretty much bring back the whole gang. Would it be a little bit
0:36cooler if they had a wide receiver three that wasn't Canonado Munfield or Jordan Wington? Okay, I guess. But again, pretty small problem in the grand scheme
0:44of things. The only real concern I guess would be Matthew Stafford being 38 years old, but just won the MVP. And you know,
0:51here's a little fun fact. All 32 teams will be worse off without their starting quarterback. So very very much deserving of the number one spot in my humble
0:58opinion. Do keep an eye though on left tackle Eric Jackson. Unfortunately in a bit of legal trouble. The Puka Nua Bitegate stuff going on isn't great
1:05either. But hey, as things stand right now, the Rams very much deserving of being viewed as a number one offense ahead of 2026.
1:13Number two, the Buffalo Bills guys last three years six and so six in scoring, then second, then most recently fourth.
1:20Joe Brady took the head coach job. Like we have continuity all over the place. I mean, okay, we brought in DJ Moore, and
1:25I do have at least a few questions about how good this pass catcher group is, but, you know, it's kind of been the
1:30case over the past few years, and bringing in DJ Moore certainly gives you a better ceiling than running it back with, you know, Gabe Davis's corpse, or
1:37at least, you know, the post knee injury version of him last year. I mean, Brandon Cooks was getting massive targets down the stretch in playoff
1:43games. So DJ Moore, even if I'm a little bit, you know, bearish on him being like prime Steph on Digs good this year,
1:49certainly an upgrade of what they were working with, given the fact that we're keeping Brady and Josh Allen together.
1:54Again, very difficult to argue with the Bills being again viewed as one of the best offenses in the league. Number three, similar story. Cincinnati Bengals
2:02last year just 12th in scoring, but obviously didn't have a healthy Joe Burrow for the majority of the season.
2:07When we did see that back in 2024, we're talking about the sixth best scoring offense in the NFL. So again, just very
2:13few overall holes to poke, you know, in this kind of argument. Could we use a little bit more depth at running back?
2:18Sure. Could we use a better wide receiver three? Sure. Would like to see Mitchell Tinsley get more of a shot though. AFC Isaac Tesla is is Mitchell
2:25Tinsley. Even the offensive line, guys, I know it's been kind of bemoaned and, you know, taken shots out throughout Burrow's career there and I do think
2:31those were warranted earlier, but shout out to ETR's Brandon Thorne does some awesome offensive line rankings and he's actually got him at 16th going into next
2:39season. I know other, you know, more real life football minds like Nate Ty actually actually do view the Bengals as being maybe not a top five offensive
2:47line Europe, but certainly very very far from the liability that they might have been a few years ago. Number four, we
2:53got the Detroit Lions. Similar to the Bills, guys, just really hard to have too much of a problem here because we've
2:57seen it year after year after year since 2023. They are fifth, first, and fourth in scoring offense. They do have Drew
3:03Petting now calling plays, but man, we saw what happened last year when they brought in a new non Ben Johnson play
3:08caller and it didn't work out. Dan Campbell takes over and things are just fine. Again, still were able to beat this top four scoring offense last
3:15season despite having some offensive line injuries and despite the run game not being as effective as usual. So, I'm actually pretty optimistic in the
3:22Petting higher. You do look at these Arizona Cardinal offenses and they did a very good job of running the football. I
3:28do think the, you know, dual threat nature of Kyler Murray helped that.
3:30James Connor no slouch as well even later in his career. But yes, I am not overly concerned about the Drew Petting
3:36hire. And with that in mind, guys, I mean, we got Pen Soul switching to left tackle. I guess you could maybe say
3:42like, oh, what if that doesn't go well and stuff, but I don't know. He's one of the best football players regardless of
3:46position in the league. I think things will be just fine there. So, very much again expecting the Detroit Lions to keep on keeping on being one of the best
3:53offenses in the NFL. Vegas's fifth best offense going to 2026. The Baltimore Ravens. This is the first one where I'm going to push back a little bit because
4:01again, I want to try to check everything. And I will say like me being a little bit not down on the Ravens
4:07playmakers overall, but this is something for me where I do have some doubts. Okay, and here are my doubts.
4:14The offensive line, we lost Tyler Lindam. All right, I know we added Vegaone, the Penn State guard. He could be awesome. He also wouldn't be the
4:22first guy to have a long freaking great career to maybe struggle a little bit as a rookie. We're putting a lot on the
4:29back of Lamar Jackson still being Lamar Jackson. And guess what? He was injured throughout last season. I provided some stats in the past about, you know, the
4:35nextG stat speed, the rushing yards per game before and after the hamstring injury. I know he was hobbled. He is going to be 30 by the time January comes
4:43around. Derrick Henry is going to be 33.
4:45Mark Andrews is getting up there as well. We only have one pass catcher and Zay Flowers for defenses to really worry
4:50about. And some of you listening might be like, "What do you mean defenses worry about Zay Flowers?" Exactly. Okay, if that's your opinion, I still stand
4:57with Shawn Baitman because I'm sick enough in the head to do that. But again, Andrew's getting older. Maybe Jacobe Lane or Elijah Sarah are going to
5:03be there. It's not exactly the world's greatest group of pass catchers. I think we can all agree on that. Then again,
5:08it's just Lamar. It's King Henry. They should be able to figure it out. But their play caller, Dlan Doyle, just doesn't have any experience calling
5:14plays. I know he's been getting Ben Johnson coffee for a while. I would like to think that's rubbed off on him, but
5:19you know, Ben Johnson's previous protege, Tanner Angstrand, took over the Jets last year. wasn't like he could exactly, you know, turn around that
5:26situation. So, Ravens are very different. And I will say throughout all this, I have these concerns about the Ravens. This is more so me. And the fact
5:33I see Vegas saying that they're going to be the fifth best freaking scoring offense this year. Their win total is like up around 11 and a half. It does
5:41cause, you know, eases my concerns a little bit more. So, I was a little worried about the Ravens maybe having a
5:46drop off because again, no Isaiah likely, no Charlie Kohler, you got the offensive line turnover, you got a first time play caller. All your key pieces
5:53are a year older. I think there's some reason for concern. I'm a little bit though. Feeling better about it based on
5:58this. Number six, we got the Dallas Cowboys. Seventh ranked offense in 2025.
6:03First back in 2023, slipped up in 2024, but again, that was with Dak Prescott missing half the season. So really, the
6:09entire squad is back, including hopefully a healthier offensive line.
6:13Brandon Thorne does have them as a ninth ranked group going into the 2026 season.
6:17So again, not too much to be worried about other than just like the Rams, like the quarterbacks getting up there.
6:21But Dak obviously only 33, not 38. But man, Dak is tied for the sixth oldest quarterback in the league in terms of
6:27how old they're going to be by the end of this season. So, life does come at you fast. D getting up there in uh age.
6:33Maybe not the most talented RB room in the world. You know, Javvante Williams had a great season last year. I know
6:38people are a little skeptical. Jaden Blue as your RB2. Maybe not turning too many heads out there, but Dallas Cowboys, again, pretty much the NFC's
6:45version of the Cincinnati Bengals. Very, very difficult to poke too many holes in this one. In seventh place, we have the
6:50San Francisco 49ers. Third, 13th, and 10th in terms of their scoring rank over the past three seasons. This one's just a little bit more like with Baltimore
6:57where I do think you can paint a picture of concern. The offensive line has been more good than great, especially with
7:05Trent Williams missing more and more time because he's getting up there in age. So, Christian McAffrey is going to be 30 in October. Trent Williams already
7:1238. Mike Evans 33. George Carroll 33.
7:15So, that's a lot of guys where we're hoping that father time can chill out.
7:18Okay, so life does come at you fast there. I do wonder at what point can this passing game continue to be so
7:24efficient even with guys getting banged up. But then again, we saw it do it last year with even less dudes to have in the
7:30first place. So 49ers should still be feeling pretty uh capable. Again, Evans dribbling Kirk reload the wide receiver room. No Brandon Aayuk, but very little
7:38to very little reason to believe the Shanahan party partnership is going to be anything other than awesome. That's pretty much what we've seen throughout
7:44their entire tenure together. In eighth place, this one I'm going to push back on a little bit. The Green Bay Packers,
7:50guys, 12th, eighth, and 16th in scoring over the course of these last three seasons. We still got Matt Laflur. We still got Jordan Love. But I think some
7:58of the turnover is good for fantasy purposes. All right, we're not going to have these five or six. Hopefully, knock on wood, we're not going to have these
8:04five or six wide receiver rotations going on with Romeo Dah with Dantavian Wixs out of the picture. I don't think they're better off without those guys,
8:11though. Particularly Romeo Dobs, who lest we forget, Jordan Love said if he needed to trust one of his wide receivers to be basically the man
8:18holding his ring at a wedding, he said Romeo Dobs, loving Romeo. How can you not be romantic about the sport of
8:23football? But I like Christian Watson. I like Jaden Reed. Maybe Matthew Golden's going to buck the trend of first round wide receivers who do nothing as a
8:31rookie actually getting better. This O line could be rough though. We got some turnover. Brandon Thorne, again, I legit like leaning on his stuff. He's got them
8:39as one of the worst units in the league.
8:40Josh Jacobs legal situation looks rough.
8:43I mean, we're talking about Marshon Lloyd, who again, I'm drafting as much as possible. Marshon Lloyd, though, Chris Brooks, Damen Martinez, who I know
8:50had some truthers coming out of college and everything, off the- field stuff, push him down to draft a little bit, but
8:55they're talking about like, oh, maybe they can bring in a veteran running back. I mean, would you guys feel better about the Packers if they brought in
9:00whatever is left of Kareem Hunt? I really wouldn't. So, Tucker Craft starting on the pup, he could be at less 100%.
9:07I think the league's best play callers are able to scheme around more mediocre to bad offensive lines to an extent, but
9:13man, we're pushing it in Green Bay, particularly with the lack of depth, at wide receiver, at running back, and with your stud tight end potentially being at
9:22less 100% by the season, by the time the season comes around. So, we don't have to go too crazy with the price tags in
9:28this group. That would be kind of the I would say alleviating factor here. like Christian Watson watch wide receiver three. Jaden Reed's a wide wide receiver
9:35four. Matthew Golden's like going wide receiver 50 or so. Even Josh Jacobs Price is getting pushed down from the legal situation. So, everyone's cheap
9:43enough and fancy. I don't think we need to overly worry about it, but I'm just saying like Packers finishing this year,
9:48eighth in scoring. I would take the under on that one. Ninth place, we got Seattle Seahawks coming off a third place finish from last season. We'll
9:54have Brian Flurry now taking over for obviously Clint Kubak who took his talents to the Las Vegas Raiders here.
10:00So with Flory, he comes from the 49ers tree. Spent the last six years there.
10:04Most recently was their run game coordinator and tight end coach. I'm feeling okay enough about it. You would like to think if it ain't broke, don't
10:11fix it. But you know, that was kind of our thought with the Lions last year before Dan Campbell had to take over in
10:15that situation as well. So they lose K Walker. We're knocking out Zack Sharbon for a while. Really up on Rashid Shahid.
10:21We're getting Tory Horton back. So I don't think it's in a dire situation.
10:24Above average offensive line, reasonable to say. And guess what? At a certain point, we just got to say what has been
10:30fact for the last two years. Sam Donald is a really freaking good NFL quarterback. Joins Jared Goff as the only two quarterbacks with 4,000 plus
10:37passing yards in each of the past two seasons. So, nine, I'd probably take the under, meaning like lower on nine on the Seahawks
10:45finishing exactly in the top 10, but between nine, you know, 16 or something, I think they're going to still very much
10:50be an above average NFL offense with the Bears now coming in 10th place. 18th, 28th, and then Ben Johnson already got
10:57them up to ninth in his first year in charge. Has retoled the offensive line to get them into a top 10 position.
11:03Traded DJ Moore to the Bills only replaced him though with Xavian Thomas and Khif Raymond. That would be I would think the biggest concern here with them
11:09being a top 10 offense. We all want to believe in Luther Bird and Coulson Love and Roma Dunay. What if the Young Guns
11:15just aren't quite ready to shoulder the lobe? And what if Caleb Williams doesn't hit the layups that truthers like myself are trying to say he's going to do? So
11:22again, I would like to believe that Caleb Williams ability to make the impossible possible should supersede missing on some layups. All right, I
11:30don't think Caleb Williams is going to be this career passer who could just never get over the 60% completion mark.
11:35But to this point, it has been a struggle. Shouldn't exactly assume these young wide receivers are going to instantly be allstars. But that said, I
11:41am comfortable treating the Bears as a top 10 offense. I have enough faith in Ben Johnson. Widely regarded for good reason as one of the best offensive
11:48minds in the league. Caleb Williams making that year three leap. And again, I'm trying to throw the caveat out there, guys, cuz guess what? I've been
11:54wrong plenty of times before and will be again. I do think that again, the burden of Dun Lovelin trio very good for
12:00fantasy because we're getting those targets condensed around a trio of guys.
12:03And I do think they are capable enough to make, you know, their respective year two and year three leaps inside again
12:08hopefully a very well-designed offense with an MVP dark horse, I would say, run the show under center. 11th place according to Vegas. The Kansas City
12:16Chiefs getting a little bit of the benefit of doubt here because these last three seasons, 15th, 15th, and 21st, they were doing a little bit better last
12:23season before Mahomes was lost for the year, but just kind of just faith in the Reed Mahomes partnership figuring things out, but unfortunately that hasn't been
12:31a case for a while. So, they did bring back Eric Benemy. Maybe he learned a thing or two in Washington and obviously
12:36he was with the Chicago Bears last season. So, maybe Eric Benemy is just Ben Johnson now. That's the way things work in July, right? But the big move is
12:43obviously bringing in Kenneth Walker, which really should help the run game. I mean, Chiefs running backs since 2022, dead last in tackles avoided per carry,
12:51dead last and explosive run rate.
12:52Kenneth Walker, you know, top 10 marks in both and literally like I believe the best running back in tackles avoided per
12:58carry. He might be two behind Jaylen Warren, but Kenneth Walker is a dog.
13:01Should have every opportunity to really instill his will and be that workhorse running back. I just wish we could have made any level of upgrades to this wide
13:09receiver room. I like bringing back Taekquin Thornton. That's fun. Probably better off as your kind of field stretching wide receiver forward and
13:16someone you should actively be relying on. So again, I don't want to fancy myself as this, you know, just complete wizard genius when it comes to ex's
13:26nose. But think about it, guys. If you're defending the Chiefs offense, I know they've been facing a lot of too high to combat just the incredible
13:35version of themselves they were from 2018 and 2022. the too high stuff has limited them over the past few seasons.
13:40And that's what made that's what's made though Rashid Rice so potent. Defense is playing off. Okay, fine. Throw these screens to your guys. You know, we'll
13:48rally up the ball. Go ahead and try to drive, you know, 12 13 plays and score a touchdown. We'll see. We'll get a stop
13:53at some point. Looking at this team, why why play too high? I'd be fine trying to let Patrick Mahomes, who, let's face it,
14:00hasn't been the most accurate deep ball passer in recent years. Chicken or the egg type of situation with the wide receivers. I know. But that's the other
14:06point. Xavier Worthy, Taekquin Thornton, those are the guys we got to worry about on the outside. I just think there's either a combination chance, and this is
14:13why I'm a little bit down on Rashid Rice. I won't give you guys the whole freaking soft story again, but if you
14:18look at this Chief's offense, Kenneth Walker and Rasheed Rice are going to be the two guys that defensive coordinators are circling, saying, "We got to try to
14:25limit these dudes. These are the guys the offense is running through." All their stuff is at the line of scrimmage.
14:30So, I just worry, man, they load the box. They don't respect Taekquon and Worthy. Why would they? And they make life that much
14:38tougher for She Rice and Kenneth Walker.
14:40So volume should be there for them.
14:42Hopefully Andy Reid and Benemy are in their lab. They're going to figure things out. The 2022 season did come without Tyreek Hill. So I will say shout
14:49out to Benemy for being a part of that situation. But man, for me it's gyms and Joe's over X's nose. And this wide
14:56receiver room leaves a hell of a lot to be desired. Mahomes is 31 September coming off the ACL. Kelsey's going to be
15:0137 in October. I would not be surprised if the Chiefs are once again for the fourth year in a row more of an average
15:07offense as opposed to a juggernaut. In 12th place, we got the Los Angeles Chargers getting their yearly offseason hype train hype train. 21st, 11th, and
15:1520th in scoring over these past three seasons, but Mike McDaniels in town, baby. And we got Rashan Slater and Joe all back giving them a legit potential
15:24top five offensive line in the NFL. So added Charlie Kohler and David Njoko in the tight end room. I'd feel a little
15:30bit better if we had maybe another wide receiver option to replace Keenan Allen.
15:34But there is a lot to like with Trey Harris. And also guys, don't look now.
15:38Brennan Thompson, SEC receiving yard leader Brennan Thompson coming in to be their pintsides of pints size field stretching uh wide receiver for on the
15:46outside. We got Keen Mitchell uh in there as well. So again, maybe the injury gods continue to be dicks because they have been to this organization
15:53stimulate forever. I'm a little bit worried about the wide receiver room as a whole, but you know, Justin Herbert, Mike McDaniel, I'm not overthinking it.
16:00Again, Chargers are my pick to be one of the best offenses in the league. I do think they blow blow past 12, finishing
16:07the top five. In 13th place, a little bit of a down here. New England Patriots, guys, finished as the second highest ranked scoring team last season,
16:14but again, just 13th right now. Josh McDaniels is back, but man, you add AJ Brown, you add Romeo Dobs, you've made
16:21steps to help get the offensive line in a better place. Whether they will still need another year or two to grow remains
16:26to be seen, but kind of nailed the offseason. I mean, after that Super Bowl, isn't that what we wanted? Invest in the offensive line. Get Drake May a
16:34couple extra high-end wide receiver options. I'm not trying to say Romeo Dobs is a freaking hero out here, okay?
16:40But he's still a pretty good number two wide receiver, especially if they're playing the Cowboys. You know what I'm saying? So, I'm not going to get into
16:47training camp reports of chemistry being, you know, being off for Drake May and AJ Brown. Come on, guys. I'm happy football's back, too. But just take it
16:56easy a little bit. Maybe we do see a little bit of regression from Drake May in the efficiency department. All right.
17:01It's tough to lead the freaking league in yards per attempt to completion rate again, as well as pretty much every other stat out there. But, man, if that
17:08happens, guess what? We'll probably see more volume. Patriots last season threw the 10th fewest total passes, but they actually were a top five team in terms
17:15of drop back rate over expected.
17:17Translation, they want to throw the ball more, just usually didn't have to because they were blowing guys out.
17:21First place schedule going to have a I think a big part of evening that out.
17:25So, Patriots just 13th in this. I would expect them to finish better by the end of 2026.
17:31In 14th, we got the Philadelphia Eagles.
17:33Back-to-back seventh place scoring finishes in 2023 and 2024. Last year though, fell to 19th. So Shawn Mannon is the new play caller in town and based on
17:42what we saw from Kevin Patulo, just really doesn't seem like things can get much worse here. So like to see more
17:47pre- snap motion, get some more play action, get some more under center stuff, all the things that you hear about. But also, again, comes down to
17:53the players who actually trotting out there. I do worry that we're overstating how fine they're going to be without AJ Frein Brown.
18:01Again, this is someone who we know was drawing double teams, who we know defenses were circling on Wednesday when they're going through the game plan. I
18:09love Mai Lemon. He's a great player.
18:11Dantavian Wixs, Hollywood Brown, you added some maybe more depth than he had last year with just Jan Dawson being your number three wide receiver, but I
18:18don't think any of those guys are AJ Brown. Devonte Smith, Njigba facing, you know, extra coverage and everything going on. offensive scheme should be
18:26better, but then again, it's been four or five years with difference with different offensive coordinators. We've heard the rumors about this being more
18:33of a Jaylen Herz thing.
18:36I think 14th is about right for the Eagles. I can see them finishing top eight, no questions asked, Saquon back to being Squan. In my heart of hearts, I
18:44think they're closer to 10 than 14, but I do worry a little bit that we're just saying, "Hey, Shan Manion, you know,
18:51he's going to be way better. How could he not be? We've never seen him call plays. It's gonna be tougher without AJ
18:57Brown. I know he has some bad drops, guys. I literally was sitting in my, you know, writing last night till like
19:01midnight. Just, you know, fun thing to do. I love my job. But I had the 49ers Eagles uh wild card game on. We all
19:08remember AJB dropped that really bad third down pass on the last drive of the game. Devonte Smith let one bounce off
19:15his hands, too. We aren't saying anything about that. So, I know AJB had some worse drafts throughout the years against the Chargers and everything like
19:20that. just I really think making AJ Brown the scapegoat for your offense is a bit of a stretch. That's all I'll say.
19:2715th place, the Jaguars. This one kind of surprised me. I thought they would be ranked higher. I think they deserve to
19:32be ranked higher. The big red flag though would be an offensive line that Mr. Thorne believes to be among the bottom three units in the league. But
19:39hey, last year didn't stop them from being the sixth ranked overall scoring offense. did see Trevor Lawrence's second half boom perhaps not so
19:47coincidentally come against yeah a really bad schedule week 12 on Cardinals Titans Colts Jets Broncos and he played great in that game that is the one
19:59caveat here there one big test t pass or flying colors Colts and Titans after that to finish the year so very Saints
20:07Shucky Drake May sort of schedule end the year but you know what you just gota beat the guys in front of Jaguars
20:14certainly did that in a major way. So O line could be a concern. I think Liam Cohen's in that stratosphere of great
20:20coaches though who can probably scheme around it. So maybe losing ETN is going to be a bigger loss than expected. I
20:25don't really think it's going to be that big of a deal. Maybe I'm just blinded by Bashaw Tutin, you know, preseason hype
20:31and everything. But more than anything, you got not three but four. That's right. Including Travis Hunter. Wide receivers you can depend on. Brenton
20:38Strange potentially making a little bit of a leap. I think the Jaguars finished much better than 15th in scoring this year. Washington Commanders 16th in
20:46Vegas's pre-season scoring ranks, fifth in scoring in 2024, fell 22nd last year, replaced Cliff Kingsbury with a magic man, David Blow. Once again though, a
20:55new offensive coordinator who we have never seen call plays and he has been in Washington. That's the other thing like I just struggle a little bit to be oh
21:03man, David Blow had all the answers as he was the assistant quarterback coach.
21:08We'll see. Maybe he's going to be awesome. Yeah. And for Cliff Kingsbury, you added round three, Antonio Williams.
21:13We got Rashad White fill in the Austin Eckler role. Probably still objectively the worst running back room in the NFL.
21:20I like Trigio Conquo as much as the next fantasy nerd. Let's not pretend like he's this top upper echelon tight end in
21:25the league. I'd like to think there's be another move coming at wide receiver, but if it's going to be Stefon Diggs,
21:32that would be great. If it's not going to be, I struggle to see someone who's going to be making a huge difference out
21:36there. So, I'm a little nervous about it. I think 16th kind of right in the middle of these high-end outcomes, literally right in the middle of the
21:43league, it feels about right. So, if big capital if if Jaden Daniels can just take care of himself, be healthy enough
21:50to start 17 games and do his thing, that's great. It is at this point looking back at his college career, looking back at, you know, some of the
21:58choices he's made, you know, getting down or not getting down his first two seasons in the league. Please, Jaden, stay healthy, man. Your team's a lot
22:05more fun to watch when you are.
22:07Indianapolis Colts 17th ranked offense going this year, coming off a year in which they ranked eighth. So, shout out to Shane Stik and Daniel Jones for
22:15really just being one of the best stories of the first half of last year.
22:19I'm wondering if the clock has struck midnight on this Cinderella story, guys.
22:23Why are the Colts going to be any better than they were last season? I think the 17th place ranking reflects that. Okay,
22:31Daniel Jones should be ready by week one. He's ahead of schedule. Everyone's ahead of schedule in the summer. He's still coming back from a torn right
22:39Achilles. One that happened late in the season, no less. We're all old enough to remember Cousins and Rogers coming back.
22:46It wasn't pretty. I know they were older. That matters. We've seen a lot of Daniel Jones over the years. I'm not
22:53sold on Brian Dable being this prodigy play caller. Okay, we did see Daniel Jones go to a better situation and immediately play career best.
23:03I think though, like a lot of things, where is the truth with Daniel Jones? Is it really that the first five, six years
23:09of his career in New York, that meant nothing in the 10 weeks we saw last year, that's the Daniel Jones always
23:14been there. Truth's probably somewhere in between.
23:17I get concerned when it's not just the Daniel Jones Achilles injury, which is a huge issue. That's his power, right?
23:24Plague. I bring that up every time. I think it's important to bring up every time. We're going to see likely a Daniel
23:30Jones that's more immobile than usual, which is usually a big part of his game.
23:33People forget Saquon Barkley dubbed this man of Noah Vic without the same sort of arm strength to stretch defenses downfield. And who's he looking to
23:40stretch defenses downfield with? Alec Pierce, who started off training camp on the pup list with an ankle injury that required surgery in April. Not a doctor.
23:49If you're getting an ankle surgery in April, and this you guys can look it up on the internet for yourself, this
23:54happened. They wanted to hopefully go through without surgery. They decided they need it in April. I don't love that. Okay. He should be back sooner
24:01rather than later. I don't think Pierce is gonna be missing much if any regular season time. Field stretcher coming back from an ankle injury. Not ideal. A guy
24:09that you wanted to get more involved in the offense and apparently start running more routes that he didn't for whatever reason the first handful years of his
24:15career hasn't had any chance to run those routes to get on the same page with the quarterback who's coming back from a freaking Achilles injury. There
24:22is no replacement for Michael Pitman.
24:24Nick Westbakini fun 2024. I had like nine touchdowns. Watch him back. Very much scheme blown coverage variety. Not taking anything away from Mr. Nick
24:33Westbini. Ashen Duel in there. I wouldn't be surprised if they bring back Shane Sten's old friend Keenan Allen. I don't think that's a needle moving move
24:42in the year 2026.
24:44I think the volume should be condensed around Jonathan Taylor, Josh DS, and Tyler Warren. And from that perspective, I can see why we are excited about them
24:52in fantasy land. I just similar to the Chiefs, what's stopping defenses from saying, "Hey, all of your biggest weapons are operating around the line of
25:02scrimmage and we're not scared of anyone getting behind us. Good luck. We're going to load the box. Good luck." I can
25:10see the Colts being really freaking bad last year. I will definitely have them finishing lower than 17th. I think it's going to be a lot closer to 32. Not that
25:18they're going to be the worst scoring offense, but between 16 and 32, I do think they finish closer to 32. 18th
25:25place, we got the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
25:27Three years, Baker Mayfield as a starting QB. They finished 20th, fourth, and 18th in scoring. Yet another new offensive coordinator, Mr. Zack
25:34Robinson, taking his talents over to Tampa Bay from Atlanta, replacing Josh Grizzard. Mike Evans went to the 49ers.
25:40They drafted Ted Hurst, lost Rashad White, brought in Kenneth Gainwell. More and more when you do look at Baker Mayfield's career 2024 looked like the
25:47outlier. I know how banged up he was last year in those first six weeks.
25:51Incredible. The performances he put on against the 49ers and also against the Seahawks. Truly amazing stuff. He deserved those MVP chance. I hope he
25:59stays healthy this year. He's kind of struggled to do that throughout his career. I know Zack Robinson used to work with Shawn McVey. That's still
26:07meaningful. I don't think this Atlanta Falcons offense were incredible. Good job. You gave Bejian Robinson the ball a lot. Good job. Michael Pennocks threw
26:14the ball at Drake London a lot. Wasn't exactly blowing me away on a game-by-ame basis. And just like the Eagles, losing
26:20AJ Brown, I think losing Mike Evans perhaps being understated, guys. We're saying like, all right, now these guys can play their better positions. I hope
26:28Jaylen McMillan or Ted Hurst can do a good job cosplaying as the X. That seems like a pretty notable downgrade to me.
26:34Acha Ibuka, we've heard Robinson say going to be, you know, his version of Cooper Cup getting forcefed targets. I think IA has enough volume to feel good
26:43about it, but Chris Goblin's another year older. He looked like a shell of himself last season. Hopefully, he's better off. We have seen guys get better
26:50an extra year removed from the injury, but when you're combining with older age, it's concerning. I think 18th is about right for Tampa Bay, I could see
26:58him being a little bit worse, though.
27:00So, something to keep in mind there.
27:01Again, when we lose these awesome wide receivers, our first instinct a lot of times say, "Oh, the other guys will step
27:06up." If they don't, could be problematic. Houston Texans coming at 19th place. Finished 13th last season.
27:11Finished 13th back in 2023. Finished 19th in 2024. So, haven't quite seen CJ Stroud and company emerge as his top 10
27:18scoring unit. But all business now. You guys see the viral video of CJ walking into uh Texans training camp. All the
27:26kids are saying he lost his Ara. I don't know. Looks like a guy's focus on playing football. Not the worst thing to
27:30have from your franchise quarterback in the world. I say that as a very, very biased Ohio State homer. So, keep that
27:35in mind there. But I do look at this team and it's like why why are we suddenly expecting the Texans to take
27:42this massive step forward on offense?
27:44Not that Vegas is, but that's again the point of this exercise, guys. I'm trying to pour some cold water on the fancy
27:49offseason hype that has every single offense in the league taking a step forward this year. Okay, you shuffled your O line. You've been shuffling your
27:57O line for years. I don't think when you look at the actual parts of the shuffled O line, we can confidently say they're
28:02going to be fantastic. I know Brandon Thorne doesn't believe that based on his rankings. Tank though should be back. Is he going to be back to being that rookie
28:09year gamebreaker? Seems like wishful thinking. Would love to be wrong. Would be a great story. I like David Montgomery. Does anyone think Dave
28:18Montgomery is a top 15 running back in the NFL? Is he a top 20 running back?
28:23Maybe. Do we think he's a differencemaking running back who could all of a sudden take this freaking run game from horrible to good behind that
28:31offensive line? I don't really think so.
28:34I'd like to think Stra bounces back from the playoffs again. 10 combined interceptions and fumbles in two playoff games. That's how as many as he had in
28:4114 regular season games.
28:44It's kind of a oneman show though still guys with Nico Collins. So Jaden Higgins does some okay things. Jaylen Noel we'll
28:49see if he split and snaps with Tankdale.
28:52I think it's more wishful thinking for the Texans to all of a sudden take this major step forward on offense particularly in the run game. I get less
28:58and less. Again, I told you guys I've been going back and forth on Dave Montgomery thought this off seasonason.
29:02Lately, I've been swinging back more to a pessimistic view, especially if we start seeing Woody Marks being a bit more involved and anticipated. Another
29:09big story line to watch out for as we get into training camp. In 20th place, the Minnesota Vikings, guys, 22nd in
29:16scoring back in 2023. That was when Kurt Cousins, you know, tore his Achilles halfway through the year. So, we can give him a little bit of a break. Ninth
29:22was Sam Darnell in 2024, just 26 in last season. So obviously got Kyler Murray now in to challenge JJ McCarthy.
29:29Offensive line still looks more below average than great though. Brian Jawan Jennings, maybe Deon Claybornne, but the argument would be the playmakers weren't
29:37the problem in Minnesota. I do think there's some truth to that. Again, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, one of the better wide receiver duos in the
29:43league. And I understand Jefferson's doing the heavy lifting with that. I saw some graphic whereas, you know, the Seattle Seahawks like JSN and Cooper Cup
29:51were also considered one of the best wide receiver duos because how could you be listing that without someone like JSN in there? So, not quite to that extent.
29:58Jordan is a good football player, but just wanted to add that caveat. I think where this 20th ranked place or worse
30:05comes to fruition is Kyler Murray just still not being a good QB. So, it's a bit of a risky pick with Kyler. But then
30:11again, guys, I was talking over on Reddit. I'm trying to do that a little more uh lately. If you guys want to
30:16maybe check out some of that, get on discussion, invite you guys to do so.
30:19Fantastic community. I freaking love getting every every time I get on Reddit, I feel like I learn something and everyone in there for the most part,
30:26we there's some bad eggs everywhere, but everyone in there just wants to talk fantasy football. How can you not love those guys? I look at Kyler Murray and
30:34yeah, I see the downside. I see why people would want to just say, you know, give me Tyler Shuck, give me Baker
30:38Mayfield when you're drafting a quarterback. Kyler Murray's quarterback 19 on sleeper right now. Pick 140.
30:46That's round 12. ESPN QB 17. Pick 148. He's going even later.
30:52You can throw a late round dart to Kyler Murray. It costs you nothing. I don't only want to walk out with Kyler Murray,
30:57but we can take Kyler and then Baker Mayfield. Kyler and then Tyler Shuck.
31:02Same thing with Malik Willis. Like I understand we saw Justin Fields last year. Not every dual threat quarterback is guaranteed to work out because they
31:09might be bad enough not keep their job in the first place. The difference with these guys is that Justin Fields was a
31:14top 12 quarterback in Yahoo last preseason. We can actually draft the dual threat upside quarterbacks late as potential darts because maybe Kyler
31:23sucks. Maybe JJ McCarthy is starting by week five. I don't think that's going to happen, but they are rotating first team
31:28snaps right now. We can't just assume Kyler is going to get the job. If he does suck though, that is going to be
31:33problematic for Justin Jefferson and company. So, I will say this 20th place ranking, looking at Kyler, looking at JJ makes me nervous about Justin Jefferson.
31:44Wide receiver 30 last year PPR points per game. I know I've had some catchable target passes, no stats, I should say.
31:52It should be an improvement. We don't know how big of an improvement though.
31:56And this Vegas again, 20th ranked line isn't helping, nor is an offensive line that didn't seem to get too much better
32:01this offseason. 21st place. Shockingly, the Denver Broncos, guys. Last two years, Bill Bo Shawn Payeyton, they finished 10th and 14th in scoring. Shawn
32:10Peyton still very much a big part of the game planning obviously, but they won't have Davis Web in charge of calling
32:16plays. Offensive line though, the class of the NFL according to Mr. Thornne. So, should be feeling good about that and should be feeling good about the
32:22additions, guys. Again, you bring in Jaylen freaking Waddle and I just feel like he is that perfect field stretcher that these guys have need. All right,
32:29Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin. Mims especially, I do believe that dude is a great football player. You see in the return game, you see it with some of the
32:36gadget touches and we've seen it downfield, man. Catching that game time ball against the Bills, you know, that Bengals bombs a couple years ago. Like
32:44Marvin M's a good football player. The concern would just be overall because again, I I believe this, but Vegas has a
32:51hell of a lot more money to lose than I do on it. And they're saying 21st. Their biggest win total is also only nine and
32:56a half for a team that I believe you look at them seems to have one of the more complete rosters in the NFL. I
33:02think the issues are the first place schedule and the fact that last year they did go 11-2 in one score games and
33:08we typically do see those outlier performances swing back the other way the following season. Just look at the Chiefs who did not lose one in 2024 and
33:15then 2025 comes around they finish I think one and nine in one score game. So I definitely think the Broncos have a
33:21chance to be a top 10 scoring offense.
33:22Okay. Okay. I'm not scared off on Jaylen Waddle because of this, but it is something to keep in mind. We see Bo
33:28Next maybe not hobbling around or maybe not moving as well as we think he should be coming off that ankle early on next
33:33season could be problematic and we would be able to look back at this and say, "Well, there were some signs from the
33:38fine folks down there in the desert."
33:4022nd place, we got the New York Football Giants. They finished 30th, 31st, and 17th in scoring these last three years.
33:46And that'll be under the direction of Matt Naggie. We got Greg Roman and Brian Callahan there as well. So, Juan Del
33:53Robinson's out, Darnell Mooney and Malachi Fields, and Odo Beckham Jr. who I keep forgetting is even freaking still playing football in the year 2026 there.
34:01And we also got Isaiah likely there. So, Andrew Thomas holding down the blind side like they do have blue chip pieces
34:07on offense. The fact that Malik Neighbors managed to avoid that pup list, great great news. So, is Cam Scatteroo actually a blue chipper
34:14particularly coming off a just devastating injury? I don't know about that, but we certainly saw the flashes from Jackson Dart in an [clears throat]
34:21offense without a number one wide receiver to get the football to. With all due respect to Wandale, but 22 honestly, oh man, it's Matt Naggie. I
34:30know it's Matt Naggie. Oh, these play callers are so brutal. Have one pass catcher to overly fear and he's coming back from a torn ACO. The running back
34:38room could look really rough if Scataboo is just understandably coming back for a while. He's not working out 100%. We've seen this happen with similar injuries
34:47and it goes back to Matt freaking Naggie being the one pulling the strings. I think Jackson Dart is going to run
34:53around a lot. I love the fact that Neighbors avoided the pup. I think if he can still somehow get him in round four,
34:58that's amazing. If you can get him in round three, I'm fine with that as well.
35:02Isaiah Le is a good late round tight end. That's about where I'm at with the New York Giants. 23rd place. This one's
35:08a little surprising and this is kind of for me some of the purposes of this. All right. And we got two teams at the
35:14bottom that are also going to be major major reasons for why I want to do this video in the first place. But 23rd place
35:19we do have the New Orleans Saints. Okay, last two seasons 24th and then 28th with Kell Moore. I thought they finished
35:24better in 28th last season. I know it was a rough stretch to start, but it seemed like they were grooving down the
35:29stretch. Maybe, just maybe though, a little too isolated in week 16 and 17 when we were in the fantasy playoffs and
35:35that's what we really remember. not so much, you know, weeks 11 through 14 or maybe they were more average than necessarily world beating units. But
35:43that said, offensive line looks like a strength of the team. We brought in Jordan Tyson who managed to avoid the pub. Seems to be fully ready to go
35:49coming off that again prolonged hamstring injury. We added Travis Aan as well from the Jaguars. That schedule was rough. Falcons twice. Falcons had a good
35:59secondary. Jesse Bates, Xavier Watts.
36:00That's a hell of a safety tandem. So, I'm not even holding the Falcons really as like a bad m as a easy matchup or
36:06anything like that. Panthers though, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Jets, Titans, things were a little bit easy there. So, they passed the eye test. I think Tyler
36:14Shuck, his ability to be mobile enough to break the pocket with the arm talent to again make off make off platform
36:20throws and push the ball downfield. I put together the cutups, but also he is the sort of quarterback that we should
36:26have expected because of his age. He's going to be 20 freaking seven here before too long if I'm not mistaken. Is
36:32Tyler Shuck not the type of quarterback that should have come out of the gates more pro ready rated than others? And we
36:38probably can't feel as good about him making these big leaps in future years.
36:44Just saying that's an older quarterback prospect. You know, we talk about guys being more pro ready than others. I would think that comes with the other
36:50caveat that someone like Caleb Williams should have a better chance of improving than Tyler Shook. You know, when you got three or four years age difference. So,
36:59are the offensive playmakers elite or are they average? All right. I love Jawan Johnson. You maybe love Jawan Johnson. He's an average NFL tight end.
37:08Okay. Chris Ave is really good. Is he a true number one or is he a bit of a overqualified number two? I think Jordan
37:16Tyson is going to be awesome. Not everyone does. I think it's a potential to be a really good team. If I had to
37:24look and because this again this Vegas is saying Saints are gonna be a bottom 10 offense. They're saying they're gonna be a 10th worst
37:30among the bottom 10 offenses. I think the Saints have the best chance of leaping up and being a top 10. Whether
37:38we should be assuming that is a different story. And a lob is going early. A Travis Achan's going early.
37:44Jordan Tyson isn't exactly the cheapest guy ever either. It's three three pieces going in the top 70 75 picks in drafts
37:52from an offense that Vegas is telling us might not be very good. 24th place we got the Pittsburgh Steelers 28 16th and
38:0015th to score in these past three seasons. Now in the reigns and in charge of Mike McCarthy who will not have an
38:07elite quarterback. All right guys, obviously Green Bay A and Rogers Prime Aaron Rogers doing his thing and then McCarthy got Dak Prescott and company
38:14doing their thing in Dallas was a part of that. Okay, I think McCarthy is a leader of men. He's taken sledgehammers
38:21to watermelons and stuff. I get it.
38:24There's no more Arthur Smith, who honestly, I think generally, you look at his track record. For Arthur Smith to get a 15th ranked scoring offense last
38:31year out of 42-year-old Aaron Rogers with one wide receiver and DK Mechaf to get the football to. Pretty impressive.
38:38All right, I know we all hate him in fantasy because he plays our guys not as much as we would like him to, but X's
38:45nose-wise. Arthur Smith got a lot out of Ryan Tanahill and he doesn't seem to ever really get much credit for that.
38:51Just saying. Maybe I'm just coping because now he's leading my Ohio State Buckeyes. Anyway, back to the Steelers.
38:56McCarthy's new head ball coach, Rico D is in for reigning team MVP, less we forget. Kenneth Gainwell traded for Michael Pitman, drafted Jeremy Bernard.
39:05We got Aaron Rogers turning 43 in December. His arm's not shot. Maybe getting back with the family is going to be a good thing. I will say, this is
39:13crazy. I was doing uh the CBS Beyond the Box score show with Dan and Jacob Gibbs today. Fun time. You guys should check
39:18it out. Love those dudes. Rogers can throw a football further than Patrick Mahomes the year 2026. Go look at their Hail Marys. Rogers got that thing 65
39:27yards against the Bengals last year.
39:29Might have even been more. The Mahomes went against the Jaguars left a lot to be desired. I was a little bit
39:34underwhelmed there. Not saying Rogers is better than Mahomes, but he can throw a football further. So maybe 43 doesn't mean as much as it used to be. It's
39:41interesting to me that there's so much money tied up in these wide receiver and tight ends and they're still average to
39:47below average. I mean, again, if we had to go around the league and rank all the wide receivers and tight ends from each
39:51team, probably finishing closer, definitely closer to 16 to one, maybe closer to 20 and 16.
39:58Can Mike McCarthy in the year 2026 get more out of 43 soon to be year-old Aaron Rodgers when their last few years in
40:06Green Bay were not going well? I'm skeptical.
40:10The one thing I'm not skeptical about in Pittsburgh is these running backs eating guys. I was again doing some research last night. Last season, the top four
40:21teams in terms of overall PPR points their running backs. Number one was the 49ers. CMC of course. Two is the Lions.
40:28Jir Gibbs, of course. Number three is the Falcons. Yeah, Bejon makes sense.
40:32Number four is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
40:34These old quarterbacks freaking feed their running backs in the passing game.
40:38It is a PPR cheat code. Jaylen Warren, Rico Dattle. Out of all the situations, out of all the running backs we can
40:44target in that muddled, ambiguous RB3, RB4 range, the Pittsburgh Steelers are the ones I want most. I even checked it against more quarterbacks because
40:53Steelers and Jets, Rogers has been doing this last two seasons, just feeding these dudes in the passing game. Since 2016, so last 10 years, there's been 20
41:03quarterbacks age 38 or over. I picked age 38 because it gives me a 20 quarterback sample size. If you do 40
41:09plus, it's even stronger, but it's literally just Rogers, Brady, and Breeze. 38 plus, 15 of those offenses, 75% finish inside the top eight in terms
41:19of their team's overall RB targets. I think it's a cheat code. Maybe not every situation. When you look at, for example, Matthew Stafford and the Rams,
41:27they got Puka, they got Adams. I don't think Kairen and Blake Cororm are going to be eating up, you know, receptions
41:31the same way, but Aaron Rogers, we've seen two straight years. We got Jaylen Warren who's certainly capable. We got Roto who's a capable pass catcher as
41:38well. Love, love, love attacking these running backs even if the offense is going to be overly great overall. 25th place, we got the Falcons. 26th, 13th,
41:46and most recently 24th in scoring. Now, under the telage of Kevin Stfansky and Tommy Reese, who is expecting to be the
41:52play caller. So, I think everything's isolated enough around Bejon, around Drake London, and just to a lesser extent, Kyle Pittz to probably be
41:59feeling pretty good about this situation. We got Brian Robson in for Tyler Alier. Obviously, you know, restock the wide receiver room. Darn
42:06money out. Zachariah Branch, Jan Dawson, all exceed 25th is supposed to be bad. I do wonder if this offense could just be
42:14hellaciously bad though. We're giving Stfansky a hell of a lot of credit for just feeding the ball to prime Nick Trub
42:21a couple years ago and Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper going off in that 2023 season. Brown's offense these last two years, I know they didn't really have a
42:30quarterback. All right. And that's been true for a long long time in Cleveland.
42:32I am sorry Browns fans, but 32nd and 31st in scoring these last two years.
42:38Tua was awful last season. Pennix hasn't looked very good either. Are these the coaches? Is this the team? Is this the
42:47organization? The overall group of, you know, pass catchers. Is that really going to bring out more in Tua who I know looks great when there's no pass
42:54rush in August? He should look great. If he didn't, that would be an even bigger red flag. Big three is fine. Def is
42:59rush. I have major concerns in the coach and play coach and quarterback departments. 26th place, the Carolina Panthers last three years, 31st, 23rd,
43:09and 27th in scoring. No shakeups in terms of like coaching turnover, but Dave Canal has given up the play calling reigns, too. Bradick apparently wants to
43:18do a little more spread style offense.
43:20Maybe it suits Bryce Young better.
43:22Again, a little skeptical cuz as much as Bryce Young is flash, the downfield stuff is great. Those downfield passing stats tell you that Bryce Young is a
43:29lethal. I think the eye test backs it up. Those are very catchable kind of lofty ball downfield, good touch and everything. I just like to have one stat
43:37that we care about that tells us he's anything other than bad. Yards per attempt, passer rating, QBR, EPA, completion percentage over expected.
43:44Choose your fighter. It's going to tell you Bryce Young has been really, really bad pretty much every year of his career. And I like Tedro McMillan, but
43:51you know, Jaylen Coker is my guy. I get it. Bill Barnwwell did a fun exercise over ESPN. He ranked every team's
43:57running back, wide receiver, tight end group. The Panthers came in at 28th. I think that's fair. Maybe you're optimistic. I think you would probably
44:05still rank them in the bottom 10. We're replacing Rico D with Jonathan Brooks who could be a great story or he could
44:11still be at 80% of his former self. And Trouba Hubber is another year older. And yeah, he's a little bit healthier, but
44:16maybe he's not going to be great. Edel McMillan is the only playmaker in this offense that we truly beyond a shadow of
44:22the doubt believe is really really good at football and that's problematic. So also very uh interesting to me. Bottom 10 offensive line here but the most
44:32expensive group in the league. Come on.
44:34Come on.
44:3627th place Tennessee Titans. They finished 27th in 2023 and 2024. They were 30th last year. Looks like a bad offensive line though. We got Brian
44:45Dable being the man in charge of this.
44:47So maybe you believe Brian Dable, who did seemly love Cam Ward, he can come into a new situation. It was just the
44:53Giants. They've been bad before Brian Dable, maybe they could be bad after him. I get it. It's another one of these
44:57things where, okay, Carnell Tate, I think I'll have a bright future. He is 21 years old. Learning curve would be reasonable. Juell Robinson got forcefed
45:06the football with the Giants. I think as we saw from the overall offensive output, that wasn't necessarily, you know, a recipe for putting forward a
45:12great realistic, you know, top 10 offense or anything like that. Calvin Ridley's up there. Chica Conqu's gone.
45:19Maybe Gunnar Helm steps up, maybe he doesn't. We got a day three running back and Nicholas Singleton. Again, offensive environment, they improved,
45:28but I'm not feeling the play caller, at least to a similar extent as Clint Kubak, who we'll talk about in a second.
45:35And just relatively, guys, Vegas is telling us 27th. I think that's probably around their play around where their playmakers groups would be. Barmo had
45:42them at 25th. So, they're cheap enough.
45:45I haven't been going my way to click Carnell Tate. I like Jordan Tyson about Carnell Tate. I'm much more confident in
45:50the Saints being a better offense than the Titans. I don't think the potential volume difference is all that off too when considering the Juan Doe
45:56familiarity with Brian Dable. Tony Pard not someone I've been drafting because the offense is going to suck. It's probably going to suck. Okay, maybe he
46:05still has a workhorse role. Maybe he doesn't Titans. If you don't have any Titans on your fantasy football team, I don't think you're going to be kicking
46:11yourself in December. 28th place though we got the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders 23rd, 29th and dead last in scoring these last three years.
46:21O line has made some steps. Threw a freaking boatload of cash at Tyler Linden. We brought in Clint Kubak who we
46:27saw despite some injuries last year still feel a very freaking good offense for Seattle. Had a great defense to help him out. Gotta give Darnold and
46:34obviously JSN some credit. But Clint Kubak and what he's done with the Saints and the Seahawks, I think we can be
46:41feeling good about him being a very good play caller who potentially can elevate things more than Chip Kelly who we just
46:47basically saw again have the most talented roster in college football and do good things at Ohio State. Who doesn't have a he who doesn't do good
46:53things at Ohio State, you know? So upgrade from Pete Carol and Chip Curry to Clint Kubak for sure. I do think
46:59Cousins and Mendoza realistically should be an upgrade from Gino Smith. I know it wasn't easy for Gino last year. We were putting a ton of
47:08stock and Gino getting hot, you know, in 2022, lesser extent in 2023. He wasn't great in 2024.
47:16He was always running this highwire attack that looked so good. Like I know the all 22 makes everything look good, but Gino the big time throw rate from
47:25PFF downfield dimes to Tyler Lock and DK Mechaf. But very high like level of difficulty, which is sick when you're pulling it off, but you get older. You
47:35feel pressure a little bit more. You still want to push the ball downfield, but you're a tick slower. That arm strength is 95% of what it used to be.
47:43I just see a guy that led the league in sacks and interceptions and I struggle to say, man, Gino Smith is just so ready
47:50to take over. So, I know we're not talking about the Jets yet, but I think Cousins and Mendoza, particularly Mendoza, once he gets a chance chance to
47:57take over, should be viewed as an upgrade at quarterback. Jaylen Naylor, I wish we had some more wide receiver upgrades. So, it's tough. I do think God
48:06Ashen Genty and Bowers are just so good.
48:08Like they legit Bowers for my money's worth might already be, especially just pass catching might already be the single best tight end in the league.
48:17Genty could be a top five running back talent. I know that Trent Richardson Genty rookie year thing went viral.
48:22Richardson was productive as a rookie.
48:24He was like the RB5 in fantasy.
48:27The Genty advance stats when you just give him the benefit of the doubt of getting back in the line of scrimmage.
48:32We can do that. All right. We just say, "Hey, yards before contact over zero."
48:36Gent's tackles avoided, his explosive numbers, his yards after contact, they're up there with the best running backs in the leagues. My eyes tell me
48:44that Bowers and Genty are awesome. And given the fact that we can feel confident in Kubak force-feeding these dudes to football, just like he did with
48:53JSN last year, this is the one bad team that I am okay trying to say, I hear you, Vegas. I think these guys can make
49:01it happen anyway. Not so sure about the next team, though. 29th place Miami Dolphins. That feels a little high to me. You know what I'm saying? It's the
49:08fourth worst in the league, but man, I thought they would come in at 32 because that's what they're kind of planning
49:14for. This is a team fully in a rebuild.
49:16Overthecap.com, shout out. They can show you like the overall offensive investment for every single year among 2026 offenses. The Dolphins are the
49:24cheapest offense by nearly $30 million, guys. It is not even close.
49:30I pull up these numbers. They really are insane. The Rams have $25 million they're spending on their offense this year. The Dolphins are at 67 million. In
49:4131st place, the Jets at 96 million. The Giants are the third cheapest at 122 million. So the Jets and dude, the
49:50Dolphins are nearly $50 million cheaper on offense than the third cheapest offense in the NFL. So yeah, I think they're going to suck. So the So does
49:58freaking Vegas. Bobby Slovix on the offense now instead of Mike McDaniel. He was their senior pass game coordinator last year so maybe he still knows to get
50:05Devon H&M the ball but Jaylen Wadd's out 22 Outwell Jaylen Tolbert Caleb Douglas Chris Bell Kevin Coleman are in Malik Willis did some great things the passer
50:14he's like number one in every passing staff but you know it's such a small sample size a lot of it was schemed up
50:20under Matt Laflur it's just the age factor man I've come around a little bit I've told you guys I did the study how
50:26do running backs perform in really bad offenses there's been 14 of them over the last decade Okay. Post top 12 numbers in a bottom 10 scoring offense.
50:35And the one similarity we saw from almost all of them other than like Derrick Henry one year because he's Derrick Henry. They were all catching a
50:41lot of passes usually 40 50 plus. We know that should be on the table for Devon A. I just really worry like he's
50:47the only guy defense is going to be trusting. I'll sprinkle on Hanks. He's a really good football player. If he falls, you know, end of round two, early
50:55round three, that would be awesome. As it stands, I don't plan on leaving my home draft with Devon Ach. Malik Willis
51:01is a completely free late round quarterback. Could I see him bucking the rule? That stat I throw out to you guys. 26 of 28
51:09quarterbacks over 90% that have had 100 plus rushing ups in the season. Finished as a top 12 fantasy quarterback per game. Maybe he does end up closer to
51:172020 Cam Newton. Okay, cuz like 2018 Lamar Jackson didn't even really bust in that. He's so cheap though that that alone just having guys like Malik Wells,
51:26Kyler Murray, Tyler Shuck, Baker Mayfield, give me two shots at it at the end of the draft when I don't want to
51:31take any of the running backs and wide receivers anyway. I don't need to mess around with again the other quarterbacks early because there are still other
51:37positions I want to be getting at. So, not loving Devon AM because we have to buy him so freaking early in such a bad
51:43situation. That's kind of like my biggest takeaway here with these offenses we're about to talk about is Han as a lowend, you know, round two
51:51pick. Is that even really a value?
51:54I get it. He He could be a first round pick in a much better offense, but man, we're still using a top 24 overall pick
52:02on someone in an offense that we fully expect could be the league's worst group. And it would not surprise us. And
52:09it wouldn't surprise us if if they completely unfortunately if that just shuts down HN. I get nervous too with these teams. Han has an
52:18ankle sprain in week 13. Why bring them back? Especially when it seems like they're already tanking. Something to keep in mind. I'm not planning on coming
52:25away with too much Devon Achan this year. Last three, everyone. We had the Cleveland Browns last three years, 10th, 32nd, and 31st in scoring. Top Mon in
52:33town. Unfortunately, similar to the Texans, it's like, could their new offensive line pieces be better? Sure.
52:38Taking a bit of a leap of faith to get there. Unlike with the Texans, we do have some new playmakers involved on the
52:44outside. Casey Conception in round one.
52:46Probably should just call him Kevin. KC stands for Kevin Conception. So we're kind of calling him Kevin Conception.
52:51Conception. I digress. Denzel Boston round two. We obviously still got Herof fan in there. My guy Jerry Judy. Quan Judkins allegedly looking pretty healthy
52:59coming off his own devastating knee injury. We'll see what happens. I like Dylan Samson behind him as well. The quarterback room just remains such a
53:06disaster.
53:07I hope Shador Sanders builds on some of those flashes. I've seen enough with Deshawn Watson, man. I just can't believe this with a new coaching staff.
53:15Are you guys going to extend him? What are you even doing here? Why are you even messing around with Deshawn Watson?
53:20Just I know you owe him the money. Every single Browns fan and every NFL plan would applaud this organization if they
53:27just cut ties with the guy. But I digress. I'd love to see Shador out there sooner rather than later because I
53:32at least think he could maybe figure things out. In my heart of hearts, do I think he will? Not really. Was really
53:38bad last year. But you know what? Flaco was really bad last year in Cleveland.
53:42He went to a much better offense. He got better. Funny how that works. So I like the thought that Monin, Conception,
53:48Boston improve the overall skill level.
53:50We got Harold Fannon, maybe Judkins is healthier. I'm a little more optimistic about the Browns than 30th. And the big thing here, unlike these other teams,
53:59like the Cardinals, the Jets, you guys can see on the screen, the Dolphins, it's not like we have to pay these
54:05premiums for any of the Browns players.
54:07Harold Fan who is like projected to lead the team in targets per Rotoire. He's gone outside of top 100 picks. Casey
54:13Conception went outside the top 50 wide receivers. Quinn Sean Jokens is a borline RB2. I'm okay investing in the Browns guys because I feel like it's
54:21already baked into their cost. It's not so much with the early round dudes.
54:25That's my biggest problem here. And that takes us to the bottom two offenses. The Arizona Cardinals guys coming in at 31st
54:32might be a controversial one because I do see some people hyping up the Cardinals. The playmakers involved. I see why. Jeremiah Love third overall
54:40pick for a reason. And if he didn't go to the Cardinals, he was going to go very soon afterwards.
54:44Michael Wilson looked awesome at the end of last year. Maybe a healthier Marvin Harrison Jr., maybe he's ready to go ahead and take his year three leap. Trey
54:50McBride, if you want to say he's the best tight end in football, you'd have a pretty good case. He's been fantastic
54:54last couple years. Offensive line looks to be more below average than anything to write home about. And the biggest freaking issue for me guys, Mike Lafleur
55:05and Nathaniel Hackett.
55:08That's who we're putting our trust in.
55:09If you really want to believe the Arizona Cardinals are going to take a step forward and Vegas is telling us they don't think it's going to happen
55:15again 31st it's going to be Gardenner Mchu and Carson Beck before too long. I know they just gave Jacobe his one year $15
55:24million extension or whatever. Look at this schedule from week one on before their buy which is like week 14.
55:32Chargers, Seahawks, 49ers, Giants, Lions, Rams, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks, Rams, Chiefs, Commanders, Eagles. I have one and a half fingers up right now
55:44because I think that's how many games maybe they can win. And I'm PROBABLY GIVING THEM TOO MUCH CREDIT. The Giants probably should be favored over the
55:50Cardinals. Every single one of these teams should be favored over the Cardinals. Then they get their buy. Then they get the Jets, Saints, and Raiders
55:56in the fantasy playoffs. Three great matchups in the fantasy playoffs. Saints aren't a joke. Raiders got Max Crosby.
56:03You know, he could always blow a game up. But I just think even if Kobe pulls off the garbage time stick again, even
56:12if he gets it going, McBride's going to have more competition. It's a Sprout offense. We just said it. Jeremiah, hopefully we're
56:21not going to see too much of Tyler Alier. Hopefully, we're not going to see too much of James Connor and Trey
56:24Benson. Let's assume Jeremiah Love is going to be the running back, y'all.
56:29It's still love. It's still McBride. We got Marv. We got Michael Wilson.
56:33Kendrick Bourne is now their wide receiver three. I don't think he's going to be that big of a factor, but even the
56:38most optimistic like Cardinals people, do you think they're going to be an above average offense? Last year they weren't. They were 23rd despite all that
56:45goodness going on. Okay, they're going to be below average to potentially really bad. We have more mouse to feed.
56:52That's why it worked so well down the stretch of last year. Their entire running back room was hurt. They didn't run the ball. They fell behind in games.
56:58They fed Michael Wilson and Trey McBride. If Mar's healthy, that's a problem. And Jeremiah loves someone we expect to catch a lot of passes, too.
57:07Michael Flor and Nathaniel Hackit. I just can't just can't get behind it, guys. I do not want my fantasy players that I'm drafting in rounds three like
57:18Jeremiah Love, like Trey McBride to be looking at having Garner Mry or Carson Beck in the fantasy playoffs. I just don't want to. with a round three draft
57:28pick. You want to take a shot on Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson later?
57:32Okay, I think it's a little more reasonable that early for anyone involved in this offense to me. Such a red flag. And in dead last, the New York
57:41Jets, why not? 29 24 29 these last three seasons in scoring. They haven't been outside the league's bottom 10 scoring offenses since Ryan Fitzpatrick was
57:52leading the way back in 2015.
57:5510 straight years the Jets have been a bottom 10 scoring offense. Maybe the Gino Smith, Frank Reich partnership can get it done. Oh my god. It's the same
58:04argument as the Cardinals, guys. Maybe the offensive line doesn't suck. Thorne has them 18th. They got their young tackles. Still not exactly a group we
58:11should be expecting to be an overly, you know, big strength. Okay, I like Gary Wilson. I like Bree Hall. Maybe the
58:17rookies are good. Omar Cooper, Kenyan Sadi, AD Mitchell. We got some pieces.
58:22Gino Smith and Frank Reich. I already went through Gino talking him through the Raiders.
58:28He was bad. He's not in a good situation. Given the play caller, given some of the unproven weapons, I just think we can't be sitting here in
58:39week nine watching Gino Smith get benched going, "Oh man, you know, I used that round three pick on Bree Hall or
58:47Garrett Wilson, but the process was right. Who could have seen this coming?"
58:50We all can see this coming. Vegas is telling us they think the Jets are going to be the single worst offense in the
58:56NFL. And that's what Gino there. They're probably going to be more bad than really freaking bad for a while. What happens when Kate freaking clubnick is
59:05under center in the fantasy playoffs, guys? It's just like Zona. If I had 100% certainty that Jacobe and Gino were going to be under center, I guess I'd
59:14feel better. But still, what are we doing? It's Jacobe Brassette and Gino Smith. Okay, rank your starting quarterbacks. I know they're going to be
59:22close to 32. You know, Frank Reich 2023, sorry, 2022, fired halfway through the season with the Colts. Bad, bad offense.
59:322023, fired halfway through the season with the Panthers. Bad offense. 2024, out of football. I don't know what he was doing. I literally have no idea.
59:412025 interim head coach for Stanford 122nd out of 136 qualified division one offenses and scoring. Don't love it. I'm not betting on the Jets early. If you
59:53want to throw a late round dart at Omar Cooper, at Kenny Sadique, even at Adenai Metro, I get it. I just don't want to
60:01throw away a round three draft pick on someone that we very realistically can believe will be the single worst scoring offense in the NFL. But that's just me.
60:11You guys could have a different comment.
60:13Let me know in the comments if you do.
60:14Again, this has been breaking down the top 32 offenses according to Vegas in order ahead of the season. So, don't yell at me about the ranks. You can yell
60:22at me about my interpretation of the ranks. So, feel free to do that. But maybe in fact, you don't want to yell
60:26me, you like the video. If so, please like the video. Always helps me subscribe button as well. So, happy end of July everyone. Very excited to get
60:33into training camp preseason games along the way. and we'll start getting into some even more, you know, in-depth fantasy football strategy here on
60:39Fantasy Football with Ian Harditch, which is me, by the way. So, I appreciate you guys tuning in as always.
