WASHED? 10 Veterans Who Could Be Fantasy Football BUSTS
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
55 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 16, 2026
Published
Sun, August 16, 2026
38
Player insights
38
Players mentioned
Topics
Aaron RodgersAlvin KamaraBijan RobinsonBlake CorumBreece HallChristian McCaffreyChristian WatsonColby ParkinsonColston LovelandD.J. MooreDallas GoedertDalton KincaidDavante AdamsDeebo Samuel
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Rodgers
NegativeBust20:06
Ian Hartitz labels Aaron Rodgers a 'wash' candidate, assigning him a 9/10 on the 'wash scale' due to his age (43 in December) and diminished ability to play off-script compared to his MVP prime. Hartitz notes that Rodgers' decline may force a check-down heavy approach that benefits running back target volume, and argues that his current low ADP means the risk is already 'priced in' for fantasy drafters.
Insight pageAlvin Kamara
PositiveBust0:35
Ian Hartitz rates Alvin Kamara a 7/10 on the 'washed' scale, citing career-worst 2025 marks of 3.6 yards per carry and 5.6 yards per catch. Despite a high-paced offense, Hartitz believes his best days are behind him and he is not a priority draft target, though he could provide PPR value with a projected 10-12 touches per game. Kamara previously recorded 115 total yards in a full game with Taysom Hill, but Hartitz views the Saints backfield as belonging to Travis Etienne due to contract status and Kamara's recent pay cut.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
NegativeProjection19:13
Ian Hartitz ranks Bijan Robinson as his number two overall fantasy player, viewing him as an elite option alongside Jahmyr Gibbs. While Hartitz expresses concern regarding the team's offensive environment, Robinson is the only high-end running back he makes a 'big habit' of drafting despite those risks.
Insight pageBlake Corum
PositiveUsage14:17
Ian Hartitz suggests Blake Corum is a late-round target who could benefit from goal-line opportunities, especially if the Rams lean on the run more with a stronger defense. While Kyren Williams finished as an RB11 in PPR points per game last year despite Corum's presence, Corum remains a viable late-round option.
Insight pageBreece Hall
NegativeBust35:04
Ian Hartitz identifies Breece Hall as a bust candidate at his current ADP, citing concerns about the Jets' offensive environment. Hartitz notes that historically, running backs on bottom-10 scoring offenses rarely finish as RB1s, and he believes the current draft price fails to account for the high probability of a poor team-wide offensive performance.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveProjection16:19
Ian Hartitz ranks Christian McCaffrey as his third overall player, assigning him only a three out of 10 on the 'wash' scale. Despite concerns regarding his age (turning 30 in June), a massive 450-touch workload last season, and a decline in rushing efficiency (3.9 yards per carry), Hartitz argues McCaffrey's elite receiving volume—noting he had more PPR points from receiving alone than Saquon Barkley had in total last season—makes him a safer bet than other high-volume backs.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveValue15:49
Ian Hartitz prefers drafting Christian Watson over Davante Adams given their respective draft ranges.
Insight pageColby Parkinson
NegativeRole13:30
Ian Hartitz mentions Colby Parkinson as a potential beneficiary if Davante Adams' role decreases, noting that Parkinson was already scoring touchdowns last year.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveValue14:32
Ian Hartitz expresses a preference for drafting Colston Loveland in the fourth round, viewing him as a valuable target in that range.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
NegativeBust24:16
Ian Hartitz identifies DJ Moore as a 'wash' candidate, citing a significant decline in efficiency; Moore dropped from 15th in yards per route run in 2023 to 44th out of 47 qualified receivers in 2025, with his fantasy points per game falling from WR9 to WR44. Hartitz expresses significant concern about drafting him, noting more downs than ups in recent performance and projecting a lower-end WR3 finish (WR35-36) due to the Bears' 'everybody eats' offensive philosophy. Despite an affordable round 5-6 price tag, Hartitz is reluctant to draft him, fearing he is past his prime and failing to secure a clear-cut WR1 role.
Insight pageDallas Goedert
NegativeValue44:14
Ian Hartitz tiers Mark Andrews alongside Dallas Goedert and Jake Ferguson, suggesting they are all similar options for fantasy managers to target.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveBreakout48:47
Ian Hartitz highlights Dalton Kincaid as a potential breakout candidate who could finally fulfill expectations by operating in a full-time role as 'Josh Allen's Travis Kelce,' which would provide significant fantasy value.
Insight pageDavante Adams
NegativeProjection10:07
Ian Hartitz rates Adams a 5/10 on the 'wash scale,' noting that while his 56 receiving yards per game in 2024 were his lowest since 2015, his 28 end-zone targets were the highest in True Media history. With no changes to his quarterback, play-caller, or target competition, Hartitz struggles to find a reason to fade him. Priced outside the top 24, he is a viable WR3/flex option who is not at risk of being displaced by depth players like Keelan Cole or Jordan Whittington.
Insight pageDeebo Samuel
PositiveUsage8:28
Ian Hartitz notes that Deebo Samuel could see increased usage if Mike Evans struggles, and highlights that Samuel's performance was significantly better in 2024 prior to his mid-season hospitalization for pneumonia and a subsequent heel injury. Hartitz suggests Samuel is unlikely to be tasked with the same heavy red-zone role as Mike Evans.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
PositiveValue21:43
Ian Hartitz suggests DK Metcalf is a buy at his current WR3/WR4 ADP, noting that while he has historically been chased at a higher price, he is now priced appropriately for his boom-or-bust profile. Hartitz also noted a specific instance where Metcalf may have lacked effort on a deep pass from Aaron Rodgers.
Insight pageDurham Smythe
NegativeUsage40:24
Ian Hartitz mentions Durham Smythe as the only tight end to record an explosive play in team period during recent training camp reports, though he does not view him as a fantasy target.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
NegativeBust35:04
Ian Hartitz warns that Garrett Wilson is overvalued at his current ADP, as he is being drafted in the first four rounds despite playing in an offense that could finish 32nd in scoring. While acknowledging Wilson's top-15 per-game finish last year, Hartitz argues that the risk of a bottom-10 offense makes him a poor value compared to players with top-five upside.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeBust18:45
Ian Hartitz notes that George Kittle was a candidate for his 'wash' list, but was ultimately excluded primarily due to concerns regarding his injury history.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveValue44:09
Ian Hartitz states he would prefer drafting Isaiah Likely over Mark Andrews if he were on the clock in round 11 for a late-round tight end.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
NegativeProjection19:10
Ian Hartitz ranks Jahmyr Gibbs as his overall number one fantasy player, emphasizing the value of elite running back production. However, Hartitz also includes Gibbs in a group of five running backs whose team offensive environments are concerning, noting that historical data suggests most players in such situations fail to reach top-12 status.
Insight pageJake Ferguson
NegativeValue44:14
Ian Hartitz tiers Mark Andrews alongside Dallas Goedert and Jake Ferguson, suggesting they are all similar options for fantasy managers to target.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
NegativeValue6:36
Ian Hartitz uses Javonte Williams as a benchmark for high-end running back ADP, questioning why Travis Etienne is not being drafted in the same range as established starters.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
PositiveUsage20:19
Ian Hartitz views Jaylen Warren as a strong draft target currently priced in RB3 territory. Warren benefits from a high-target floor created by aging quarterbacks, specifically Aaron Rodgers, who frequently dump the ball down to him when facing pressure rather than attempting to create plays off-script.
Insight pageJordan Whittington
NegativeDepth Chart13:11
Ian Hartitz notes that Jordan Whittington will not take away snaps from Davante Adams, reinforcing the stability of Adams' role.
Insight pageKeelan Cole
NegativeDepth Chart13:10
Ian Hartitz dismisses Keelan Cole as a threat to Davante Adams' snap share, noting that Adams is not at risk of being displaced by depth players.
Insight pageKeon Coleman
PositiveSleeper33:42
Ian Hartitz defends Keon Coleman against failure narratives, citing his 9.8 yards per target, 19.2 yards per catch, and eight touchdowns in 26 career games. Hartitz suggests Coleman as a late-round dart throw with upside to serve as Josh Allen's primary red zone and deep-ball threat, effectively filling the role previously held by Gabe Davis.
Insight pageKhalil Shakir
PositiveValue47:36
Ian Hartitz identifies Khalil Shakir as a potential bargain if DJ Moore fails to emerge as the clear-cut WR1 in Buffalo. Already functioning as a WR3/4 type, Shakir could see increased usage and value in deeper 14-team leagues or as a floor-play flex option if he is asked to expand his role in the offense.
Insight pageKyren Williams
PositiveUsage14:17
Ian Hartitz notes that Kyren Williams finished as an RB1 (RB11 in PPR points per game) last year despite Blake Corum's presence. If Williams captures more of the goal-line work, he has top-10 upside.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
PositiveValue23:36
Ian Hartitz views Michael Pittman Jr. as a value at his current WR3/WR4 price, arguing that his recent statistical dips were due to playing through a fractured back in 2024 and poor quarterback play in 2025, rather than a decline in talent.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeBust8:26
Ian Hartitz identifies Mike Evans as a potential bust candidate due to his age (turning 33 in August) and injury history, though he remains a high-level separator. Hartitz ranks him as WR20, noting this is conservative and likely to rise by September. Evans should benefit from Brock Purdy's 72.4% catchable ball rate, an 11% improvement over Baker Mayfield. If Evans misses time, D'Onta Stripling is the primary beneficiary, and Christian McCaffrey would likely become the clear-cut number one target.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue15:50
Ian Hartitz identifies Parker Washington as a player he prefers drafting over Davante Adams in the current draft range.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
NegativeValue15:00
Ian Hartitz notes that Puka Nacua is already being drafted as a WR1 or WR2, suggesting his ADP is likely pushed to its limit, though he acknowledges Nacua remains a top-tier fantasy asset.
Insight pageRicky Pearsall
NegativeInjury18:37
Ian Hartitz notes that Ricky Pearsall is already dealing with an injury, which is part of a broader trend of 49ers players suffering injuries.
Insight pageRico Dowdle
PositiveUsage21:51
Ian Hartitz highlights Rico Dowdle as a valuable RB3 target who should see a fairly even committee split. Dowdle is expected to benefit from the check-down tendencies of an aging quarterback, providing handcuff upside if the backfield situation changes.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeProjection16:46
Ian Hartitz uses Saquon Barkley's total receiving production from last season as a benchmark to illustrate Christian McCaffrey's elite receiving volume, noting that McCaffrey had more PPR points from receiving alone than Barkley had in total.
Insight pageTerrance Ferguson
PositiveSleeper13:23
Ian Hartitz identifies Terrance Ferguson as a great late-round target. If Ferguson secures a 75% route rate in Week 1, he could quickly rise in weekly rankings, making him a high-upside stash.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
PositiveValue3:33
Ian Hartitz is bullish on Travis Etienne at his early round-five ADP, arguing his $52 million contract signals a 60/40 or 55/45 backfield split. Hartitz views this as a massive value compared to higher-drafted backs like Breece Hall or Javonte Williams and believes the Saints backfield is now Etienne's to lead, especially given the reality of Alvin Kamara's recent pay cut.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveRole42:42
Ian Hartitz identifies Zay Flowers as the primary target competition for Mark Andrews, noting that the Ravens lack other significant pass-catching threats.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00What's going on everybody? Today I'm breaking down 10 veterans who may or may not be washed. You can call them busts,
0:06you can call them fades, whatever provocative term you want. But these are 10 guys who I have constantly either been seeing or bringing up myself,
0:13speculating that hey, maybe they could do something good in the year 2026. But almost immediately I got an angry mob coming back at me saying, "No, Ian, you
0:21are dumb. They are in fact washed." So I want to go through and give a scale for each of these guys. If I do believe them
0:27to actually be washed and hey, also go through the idea where if they are washed, who should be benefiting? And with that, let's get after it with
0:35washed candidate number one, Saints running back Alvin Kamara, guys. Turned 31 July. Obviously didn't have a great 2025, okay? Career worst marks in yards
0:44per carry at 3.6 and 5.6 yards per catch. It was not good.
0:50That said, offensive environment wasn't great either, okay? We rightfully talk about Ashton Gentty, Quintez Jarkins, guys who average again a very similar yards per
0:59carry, working behind horrible offensive lines, all right? 31st and 32nd, I believe the Raiders and Browns were in running back yards before contact per
1:07carry.
1:09Kamara's Saints offensive line ranked 28th. We didn't get to see him against that soft schedule and with Taysom Hill balling out under center. We actually
1:17did for one full game and he had 115 total yards. It was two games total. We had that wonky Rams game where I think
1:23the Saints ran like 41 total offensive plays. If you throw that one out, his one true full game with Taysom Hill
1:30under center, 115 total yards.
1:33He is only one year removed from working as a PPR RB5 on a per game basis. Like that happened in 2024, guys. So
1:41I get it though. Travis Etienne, ETN.
1:45Every freaking time with this, dude. $52 million, all right? All right, to ETN.
1:49He is going to be the lead running back, but by how much? Is it going to be 50/50? I don't exactly think so.
1:55Training camp reports have kind of indicated it's more so Kamara as a pass-down specialist, which hey, maybe brings out the best in him again. It
2:02would make sense that someone who is again 31 years old, maybe a little bit of a lighter role they would provide a
2:06little bit more boom than what we saw, you know, being force-fed the football last season.
2:11It's a tough one though.
2:13A couple weeks ago, I told you guys that Travis Etienne was one of the guys I was fading. That was at that kind of
2:18borderline round three price tag. Now that has become, you know, everyone's attention that Kamara is clearly back and involved.
2:25I got Etienne early round five in a couple drafts I've been in recently, guys.
2:30Round five Etienne, I'm very much in on because I do think with the $52 million contract, it should be 60/40.
2:39Worst case, maybe like 55/45, but I would be surprised if it actually does get close to 50/50. So, obviously make Kamara a nice click weeks and months ago
2:47when there was still some uncertainty he was going to be out there. He did accept a roughly, you know, $5.5 million pay
2:52cut for a reason.
2:54The last point, this Saints offense, man, they move with a ton of pace. Shout out to Pat Thorman over at Establish the Run. He's been
3:01kind of the pace leader in our fantasy community for a long time. Looking at the Saints, guys, first in pace overall
3:07last year, eighth in plays when you're kind of adjusting for overtime, and second in no-huddle percentage. So, if there was going to be sort of a running
3:14back room where we could live with maybe a closer split than effect than it than expected, it would be one that's running
3:20so many plays in the first place that we're able to see that guy overcome it.
3:23So, for me, I'm going with seven out of 10 on the wash scale for Alvin Kamara. I really do believe his, you know, best
3:30days are in the rearview mirror at this point. Could he still surprise a little bit, particularly in the receiving game where he's been so fantastic over the
3:37years? Yes, but honestly, again, just given how cheap now Etienne has gone, he's now going again this round five range in more drafts than not, I am
3:45basically kind of pushing back now on the idea that Kamara is going to be that big of a problem because again, if
3:51Kamara is as washed, that's kind of the other point I wanted to make here, if Kamara is as washed as everyone says,
3:56we're going to look at that round five price tag for Etienne and say, "My god, why was this dude not going at the round
4:01two, three turn alongside guys like Javonte Williams and even the Jeremiah Lowes and Breece Halls of the world?"
4:07So, I do think Kamara, certainly seven out of 10 wash scale, not someone who I think you should be going out of your
4:12way to necessarily get at the end of drafts. In the right build, you know, hero RB, you just kind of need to kind
4:18of aggregate a bunch of guys to get that RB2 spot figured out. I do think we could luck up and see Kamara getting 10
4:23to 12, you know, touches per game, many in the past game, obviously going to be more helpful for PPR purposes, but sans
4:29pace, Etienne contract, and just the reality that again, Kamara had to take the pay cut to even come back, I do
4:35think this is Etienne's backfield as a whole.
4:39You know what though?
4:40You know what's also pretty cool? Saints backfield, sans pace, the RotoWire subscription. All right, real quick guys, code Ian20 gets you 20% off if you
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5:25smarter, get those bragging rights over your friends and family in fantasy this year, code Ian20 over at RotoWire. Thank you.
5:32Wash candidate number two, Mr. Mike Evans for the San Francisco 49ers. This man is turning 33 in August, and man, ranked among the league's bottom 10 wide
5:40receivers last year in yards per target, pass rating when targeted, and catch rate alike. Obviously was injured a lot, and as father time tends to do to these
5:48sorts of players, shouldn't necessarily be expecting the injury gods to chill the hell out here in 2026 or beyond. Why he might not be washed though,
5:56you do look at some of the target stats, and also the quality of those targets, and you still see someone capable of
6:01playing at a pretty high level, okay?
6:03Eighth in targets per route run last season. And when he was going out there, man, at least if you want to give him If
6:09you want to give him the benefit of the doubt of saying, "Hey, you know, maybe last year was a little bit worse because
6:13he was playing through some injuries."
6:14Like let's include 2024 in this as well.
6:18Fantasy points average separation score, man, they do have Mike Evans number one among their qualified wide receivers.
6:24And again, looking at their separation score when they are lined up out wide.
6:28So, Mike Evans, Zay Flowers, DeVonta Smith, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Smith-Njigba in that top five. Very good company to be around there for Mr. Mike
6:36Evans. I mentioned before kind of the quality of the targets, and this will be the other part that again gets me more
6:41encouraged about Mike Evans despite some of the falloff in 2025.
6:45Last year, just a 61% catchable target rate for Mike Evans. His new quarterback, Brock Purdy, when he was targeting wide receivers, and I even
6:54excluded screens here, 72.4% catchable ball rate from Brock Purdy last season. That's a plus 11% difference.
7:03Look, I'm not trying to slander Baker. I know he was playing through his own injuries here, but the difference between catchable ball rate from Baker
7:10to Purdy, it's larger than J.J. McCarthy to Kyler Murray, guys. It's larger than, you know, DJ Moore dealing with Caleb going to Josh Allen. It's larger than
7:19A.J. Brown going from Hurts to Drake Maye. It's the largest one I could find among the marquee wide receivers out changing quarterbacks. So, with Mike
7:27Evans, I do think when you also consider the fact that Ricky Pearsall is out of the picture, very tough to just kind of figure out a
7:34way where Evans is going to meaningfully bust if he can just stay healthy. So, that is the caveat here, and that's why
7:40Mike Evans and Davante Adams, who spoiler, we are going to be talking about here in a minute, that is why these guys are going I think more so
7:46closer to that wide receiver two borderline, but man, we're going to be drafting Evans as this low-end again borderline wide receiver two type, but
7:53the second week one comes around, we are going to be ranking him far, far higher out here. So, if he is washed though,
7:59let's say Father Time comes, he's not effective, he gets injured, yada yada yada.
8:04It's tough, man. We've seen this passing game just really condense around certain players like last year Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle were doing
8:11their thing with the wide receiver room so banged up. Jauan Jennings was all right. Pearsall, when he was healthy, did a couple good things, but
8:18D'Onta Stripling, best wide receiver in training camp person with the beat reporters out there, he would probably be the biggest beneficiary if we again see Evans
8:26getting banged up over there as well.
8:28Maybe even Deebo Samuel.
8:30I would think cuz McCaffrey and Kittle are going to get theirs regardless. If Evans sinks, I think Stripling would be the guy we
8:39really want to be in on.
8:41I'll give Deebo a little bit of love because in 2024, pre and post pneumonia splits, like this dude was hospitalized for a couple days
8:49out there during the middle of the season. He was much, much better before.
8:53And even last year in Washington, first 6 weeks or so of the year, did some really good things, and then he got a
8:57heel injury, and then he wasn't playing as well. I get it though. Older players are going to get injured more often.
9:02It's not ideal, but we can't just assume that they're going to be healthy all the whole year.
9:06I just don't think Deebo would be asked to do anything near what Evans is. So, Stripling, I know they kind of tried to
9:12bring him in, I think more so as the Jauan Jennings replacement cuz they thought they were going to have Pearsall, and they still do have Mike
9:18Evans out there, but maybe in this scenario they don't.
9:21Stripling would be the guy.
9:23Talked about some draft strategy stuff.
9:25Usually in the later rounds, I like targeting handcuff running backs over wide receivers, but Stripling would be the kind of exception to that rule where
9:32you're saying, "All right, he's in an offense we love. He got 33rd overall pick or whatever it was, draft capital, so he's clearly a talented guy.
9:40Shanahan, the team seemed to love him, and he is one more injury away to one Mike Evans who, let's face it, a little
9:46bit injury prone, a little bit older, from skyrocketing up the ranks. So, Stribling, I do believe would be the biggest beneficiary if Evans gets
9:52injured. That said, I'm going with a four out of 10 on the wash scale right here. I don't think Evans is going to
9:56get back to 1,500 yd heights or anything like that, but I really do think he can do his very best 2025 Davante Adams
10:03impression, guys, because as much as George Kittle is great in the red zone and great at everything, he's George Kittle. I don't see Stribling or Deebo
10:10Samuel being that guy getting the one-on-one fade from Brock Purdy in the red zone. It really does seem like Mike Evans, even if he's washed from a
10:17yardage standpoint, has such nice double-digit touchdown upside in a Purdy-Shanahan passing game that's that's continuously been awesome. So, going through this, actually went ahead
10:25and updated my ranks over at rotowire.com. Evans is now my wide receiver 20, and that still honestly feels low. Again, prime candidate to be
10:33ranked far, far higher in September than the one we're doing right now in August.
10:37Wash candidate number three, it's going to be Davante Adams. And, you know, why is he potentially washed? Well, he turned 30 He turns 34 in December, and
10:44when you also look at last year, 14 touchdowns, incredible stuff, but as any Adams or Kyren or Corum or Puka fantasy
10:52manager knows, a lot of those were coming from inside the 5-yd line. I think it was seven inside the 5-yd line,
10:59like nobody else had more than four. I think Dallas Goedert was the guy with four. So, very much of, again, the
11:05fantasy-friendly goal-line variety.
11:08But, on the other hand, the volume was there. 28 end zone targets for Davante Adams last season, guys.
11:17That's the highest mark in True Media history, and they go back all the way to 2009.
11:23Really wasn't even close. Number two last year was George Pickens with 18.
11:27So, Adams had 10 more end zone targets than the next closest wide receiver in 14 games.
11:34It worked, but it's not like we're looking at someone who caught, you know, oh man, Adams caught 12 of his 15 end
11:40zone targets. Like there's no way he's going to have that.
11:43The regression case doesn't exactly line up as well as you would like it to because of just how freaking peppered he was getting.
11:52I think he caught 14 of the 28. He might All of his touchdowns might have been in the end zone. If it wasn't 14, it was
11:56pretty close.
11:58Again, if it was some 80% hit rate, but a 50% hit rate, I get that that's still higher than league average, but we do
12:06have a one of the best wide receivers of his generation. I think we can all agree on that. With the league's reigning MVP and
12:13an offense we love and an offense that didn't add any additional red zone competition to worry about. So, we got the tight ends who are going to be doing
12:19their thing as well. Puka Nacua maybe just the entire universe starts centering around him and they give him those touchdowns. Could you freaking
12:26imagine the fantasy numbers if that happens, but the issue for Adams is that last year he only averaged 56 receiving yards per
12:33game. That was his lowest mark since 2015, but can you guys remember a goal line receiver like this? I mean, it's a wild
12:42role, but they have it for the man and nothing has changed in terms of the play caller, his quarterback, or even his
12:46target competition. I do struggle to kind of poke a meaningful hole in this situation. So, I'm going a little bit higher on the wash scale than Evans,
12:55but man, I'm only going five out of 10 here. He's only missed more than three games once in his entire career. Similar
13:02to Evans, I just don't I look at it, man. It's like other than him getting hurt, he's not going to get displaced by, you know,
13:10Keelan Cole or Mont Field.
13:11We're not going to see Jordan Weidman come out and taking away Davante Adams' snaps.
13:16They got all the tight ends. So, again, trying to play like the okay, well, it doesn't work out for Davante Adams, who
13:22benefits?
13:23The fantasy nerd that needs to go to therapy in me wants to say Terrance Ferguson would be the one that steps up.
13:30Probably Colby Parkinson, the guy who was already scoring all the touchdowns last year, but I do think if you wanted to try to play the game where it's like,
13:38all right, Davante isn't going to be the same guy.
13:41Probably these running backs, man, more than anything. I want Terrance Ferguson to happen. I think he's a great click at the end of your draft cuz you can wait,
13:49see what happens in week one. If he has a 75% route rate, he's going to be completely skyrocketing up the weekly ranks and
13:56you're going to feel like a genius for getting him there. And if he doesn't, you can cut him. No worries. We've seen
14:00worse. But like that's Not many players have that realistic range of booming up into the week two ranks like Terrance Ferguson does just from getting one good
14:09data point that we will again find a way to get here in week one. So, I would say, if anything, it would just be these inside the five
14:17attempts going to Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, man. Talking about all those touchdowns, we start sprinkling three or four more to each of these
14:23guys.
14:25I have not been drafting a ton of Kyren Williams. I've usually once round four comes around, I start moving my attention to wide receivers. I
14:32like Colson Loveland in that range as well.
14:35But man, Kyren even last year with Blake Corum eating into his workload, borderline RB1. I think he finished like RB11 in
14:42PPR points per game.
14:44If you give him half of Davante Adams' goal line touchdowns, man, we're right back in the top 10 even with Blake Corum
14:49not going anywhere. So, Corum would also be a guy where again, I think just later in the draft loaded Rams defense this
14:55year, it would make sense if we see them able to lean on the run more often. And again, if Adams isn't going to be the
15:00same monster in the goal line, Kyren, Corum eating up those more. Puka, sure, fine, but he's already wide receiver two in some people's minds, wide receiver
15:08one. So, how much further can you push the guy? So, five out of 10 wash scale for Davante Adams. It's just
15:14he's not being asked to be used that much down field or to stretch, you know, what defenses are trying to, you know,
15:20to stretch in the secondary, going deep and all that. You guys get what I'm saying?
15:25It's weird cuz he is going to be 34 in December, but he's in probably the most like protected sort of role that you
15:32could ever hope for for an aging wide receiver. Great great talent. I still think Davante Adams, where he's being priced to, guys, like usually outside of
15:40top 24, very very much already priced into his issues because he was a top 12 wide receiver last year in fantasy. So,
15:49I'm not leaving every draft with Davante Adams. I like Christian Watson, probably Parker Washington in that range just a little bit more. And look, I don't want
15:56my entire roster to be, you know, the all AARC team or whatever that, you know, old people insurances.
16:02I do think though in the right building that you've already found a way to get two or even three wide receivers by the
16:07by the time an Evans or Davante comes up, that's a situation where I'm not completely relying on them to be my wide
16:13receiver one or wide receiver two, but unbelievable wide receiver three or flex option.
16:19Wash candidate number four, we got Christian McCaffrey, guys. He turned 30 in June. Also got a deal with the reality that he's coming off a season
16:25where he had 450 touches and also did not put his best foot forward on the ground. Just 3.9 yards per carry. That
16:31was his worst season-long mark where he played more than three games since his rookie season. So, didn't exactly see greatness there, but
16:39was still kind of one of the best, if not the best. Actually, he was the best running back in all fantasy football.
16:46More PPR points from purely receiving than Saquon Barkley had overall last season, guys. So, eighth most PPR points from receiving of any player in the
16:55entire NFL. That's what we're dealing here with CMC. So, I've talked before about again some of the just after season effects from a big touch total.
17:04I looked at 30 running backs who have been, you know, 350 plus touches over the course of the past decade. The average
17:13games played the next season was 13.3.
17:15Medium was 16. We did see the average PPR points per game drop, and I know the trendy way is not even kind of, you
17:23know, if you want to make your bias point here and try to sack the fade CMC, you'll just point out how like the
17:28overwhelming majority of these running backs average fewer fantasy points than they did the year before, which is true, but the average from the group is still
17:3516.6.
17:37That's a really good mark, man. And in CMC's case, why I think he's more protected than your usual Saquon Barkley sort of
17:44running back, like we saw last year, CMC's big season wasn't built on a bunch of big plays. It wasn't built on
17:49dominance on the ground, cuz that's the other part from this again, high-volume running back category, the big drop-off we see is yards per carry.
17:58In their high-touch season, they went from 4.7 to the following season to just 4.1 as a group. That was already an
18:04issue for CMC. It It would suck if he goes from 3.9 to 3.3 or something like that, but of all things here, man,
18:12I hope the injury gods treat CMC okay and nice. They seem to be taking out every other 49er right now within, you
18:18know, arm's reach of that substation. I know CMC's got the tightness. They haven't told us where he's dealing with it, but
18:24tentatively expecting CMC, knock on wood, to go into week one at full health.
18:29We just don't see receivers or running backs with receiving upside to catch 100-plus passes, to go for 1,000 yards potentially, and to catch eight-plus
18:37touchdowns. So, Pearsall's already hurt.
18:39We talked about Mike Evans. I mean, if you think Mike Evans could potentially get injured, then Christian McCaffrey's probably going to F around and be the
18:45clear-cut number one target. And oh, yeah, what if George Kittle also probably could have made this list as a potential wash candidate, a little bit
18:51more of an injury ramification there, that's why I didn't include him, but lot lot lot to like here about CMC, guys. In
18:56fact, I'm going just a three out of 10 on the wash scale here. I have adjusted my ranks, and I now have CMC as my third
19:03player overall. So, if I am going to be particularly in a half PPR draft, but honestly also PPR, just given it is CMC,
19:10I'm going Jahmyr Hall, number one, Bijan Robinson number two.
19:13Switch it up if you want to. I'm so freaking tired debating that. They're both awesome. Everyone has them number one or number two. We waste so much time
19:19barking about that. I'm going with Christian McCaffrey number three.
19:23It's nothing against Ja'Marr Chase or Puka Nacua. If you prefer them, I'm not going to argue with you.
19:28I just really love being able to get that first round RB guys.
19:33I think when you're playing catch-up at RB in the middle rounds this year, it's just really doing you a disservice. I am
19:38more confident in my ability to match early round wide receiver production with a group of guys in the middle round than I am thinking that I can get
19:47anywhere close to Bijan, Gibbs, or CMC numbers from a bunch of round four through seven running backs I have major question marks about. So, receiving work
19:57too ridiculous to ignore. Christian McCaffrey, my third overall player in fantasy drafts, just a three out of 10 on the wash scale.
20:04Wash candidate number five here, Mr.
20:06Aaron Rodgers. He's going to be 43 years old in December. Uh yeah, I mean, he he he is washed like relative to the
20:12freaking MVP game-breaker, one of the best quarterbacks of his generation that we saw not that too far ago. Obviously, you watch Rodgers these days, when
20:19there's pressure, he's dumping the ball down to Jaylen Warren. He's not exactly going to be out there trying to be, you
20:24know, the sort of just off-script artist that he was earlier in his career because he's about to be 43 years old.
20:29So, makes sense there. I will say, if you want to make the argument for why he's not washed, he tied Patrick Mahomes
20:36for the longest throw of last season.
20:38And honestly, Rodgers was way more impressive, guys. He got that freaking pigskin. It was against the Bengals Hail Mary, and we know that's basically
20:46Rodgers, you know, defining career play.
20:48How many times has he pulled that off?
20:51I looked up the air yards on PFF, and they're saying it was I think 61 yards.
20:56It looks 70 to me, man. Maybe they're just doing it from the line of scrimmage, which would make more sense, but he threw that thing from the 30 all
21:03the way to the freaking opposite end zone. Unfortunately, maybe not the best effort from DK Metcalf. It fell incomplete, but Mahomes is wasn't that
21:10game against the Jaguars on Monday Night Football where he got an entire run up and still man only could get it from
21:16like the 20-yard line to the opposite 20-yard line. So, still got a cannon. We saw flashes of it. The more washed part of Rodgers'
21:24game, I think, comes from his inability to move around now, but the thing is that could really benefit these running backs. So, here's my main case on
21:31Rodgers. I think he's washed, all right?
21:32Nine out of 10 on the wash scale. I don't think that's up for too much debate.
21:37We might be able to use this to our advantage.
21:39Everyone else we talked about, like if they're washed, it's not going to be good for the offense. And no, it wouldn't be good for Rodgers as well. I
21:44do think we need to consider the possibility that the Steelers team could really suck, but they could really suck while Jaylen
21:51Warren and Rico Dowdle just eat up targets, guys.
21:55I looked it up. We've had 20 quarterbacks aged 38 or older start at least 10 games over the last 10 years. I
22:03used 38 because when I used 40, it was literally only Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. So, I wanted to
22:08get a slightly bigger sample there.
22:1015 of these 20 offenses ranked top eight in RB targets, man. Rodgers himself, Steelers RBs were second last year, and they were fifth in 2024.
22:21Even with Garrett Wilson, even trading for Davante Adams. And I know Breece Hall is a good receiver and everything, but man, fifth and second over these
22:28last 2 years, guys.
22:312022 was with the Packers, they were still 11th.
22:34Brady, Roethlisberger post-elbow, he's up there. Honestly, Roethlisberger is the only guy that's kind of skewing this a little bit.
22:42Brees, Philip Rivers constantly feeding these guys.
22:46These geriatric quarterbacks are going to jump the ball They're going to check the ball down because they don't want to get freaking jumped by a bunch of
22:51werewolves who are breathing down their neck every time they drop back to pass.
22:55So, I'm worried about the Steelers being horrible potentially. Let's face it, the last time we saw Mike McCarthy in a prime, soon-to-be two-time MVP
23:06additional version of Aaron Rodgers, like it wasn't working and they had to replace McCarthy with LaFleur.
23:11Are we sure that 10 years more of Rodgers aging and McCarthy, I don't know, existing in Dallas? I don't want to put
23:19him down. He won a Super Bowl and everything, but if the 2026 Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers-led offense finishes 30th in
23:25scoring, we should not be shocked about it. So, they finished 15th last year. I don't think they're going to necessarily be horrible, but certainly within the
23:32realm of imagination. If you had to pick of the Steelers finishing top five or bottom five scoring, I certainly would lean to more towards bottom five. All
23:40that said, I think the ADPs, I think it's baked in already. So, Rodgers nine out of 10 wash scale, but it's not forcing me to move
23:49off of Warren or Rico Dowdle or Pittman or Metcalf.
23:53We're already talking about two RBs in RB3 territory. I think both guys have very nice handcuff upside if the other one gets injured. Both guys, as it
24:02stands right now, should be a fairly evenly split committee. I love targeting these Steelers running backs where they're going in draft right now,
24:08especially if you're already set at wide receiver and you can't afford to add another guy to your backfield. And then Metcalf and Pittman, again, wide
24:15receiver three, wide receiver four borderline.
24:18Metcalf has been his boomer bust wide receiver three really his entire career.
24:22We've always chased him up more expensive than that, chasing that, you know, what, 2019-2020 season. His second year here as a wide
24:29receiver 10. Every other year has kind of been a fall to wide receiver three.
24:33Now we can buy him as that. And even Michael Pittman, wide receiver two for pretty much his entire career other than
24:392024 when he played through a literal fractured back, and then 2025 when Philip Rivers messed up everything for him at the end.
24:47Acceptable prices for talented players looking at a lot of volume, even if we should be aware, you know, of potential severe drop-off between Rodgers and Mike
24:55McCarthy.
24:56Wash candidate number six, I'm going with DJ Moore, all right? He turned 29 in April and you look at the numbers over these past 3 years, man.
25:052023, that was the Justin Fields year, okay? 15th among 59 wide receivers in yards per route run, wide receiver nine in fantasy points per game.
25:132024 comes along. Now he's playing with Caleb Williams.
25:1743rd out of 54 wide receivers in yards per route run, wide receiver 27 in PPR points per game.
25:23Okay.
25:25Year two of Caleb, Ben Johnson comes into town.
25:2844th out of 47 qualified wide receivers in yards per route run, also the wide receiver 44 in PPR points per game.
25:37He killed the Packers and I know Bears fans appreciate that cuz if there's one thing that Bears fans hate in this
25:42world, it is anything to do with the Packers and I know Ben Johnson agrees with that.
25:48That's the case for him being washed.
25:50He's not 30 just yet, but he's racked up eight seasons in the NFL, a little bit older in terms of like the mileage with
25:55him.
25:56His last two seasons objectively have featured more downs than ups.
25:59Why might not? Why might he not be washed?
26:04It was a Bears offense that split it up, Loveland, Burden down the stretch, Equanimeous St. Brown, DJ Moore, constantly spreading the ball around.
26:12All these guys finished, you know, around 600, 700 yards or so.
26:16Are we that far removed from when he went for 1,300 plus yards with Justin Fields and, you know, Tyson Bagent, aka
26:22T-Bag?
26:24Wasn't that Wasn't that long ago.
26:26Now, if I try to play that game with Alvin Kamara or Jerry Jeudy, I'll get laughed out of town. For DJ Moore, it seems to
26:32be a little bit more acceptable.
26:35This one's tough for me, guys.
26:37There's a very real chance that I'll look so stupid for not drafting more DJ Moore. And if you guys just want to say,
26:43"Ian, Josh Allen's wide receiver one is priced as a wide receiver three."
26:48I get it.
26:50It's a fade for me that terrifies me.
26:55It really does.
26:56I have dreams about this [ __ ] people. I wish I didn't, you know?
27:02I told my buddy from college, I was like, I had the homework dream where I wake up or I'm I'm sleeping obviously
27:08and it's week four and I'm like, oh my god, I forgot to set my fantasy teams.
27:13My buddy was like, I don't I've never dreamed about anything with work like that. I don't treat it that seriously.
27:17And I'm like, ah.
27:20Nice.
27:21Good [laughter] for you, man.
27:24Fading DJ Moore terrifies me.
27:28And I could I draft him more? Yeah.
27:30But in my heart of hearts, I think Christian Watson and Parker Washington are better football players right now.
27:34And as much as being Josh Allen's number one wide receiver is a great idea, we've had back-to-back years of plenty of guys
27:40who could do that.
27:42Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, Josh Palmer.
27:47I admit DJ Moore, I think in the year 2026 is better than those guys, but it wasn't like Amari Cooper we just
27:53instantly knew he sucked on his way to Buffalo.
27:57He had a rough first six weeks in Cleveland that season before he came over. There were signs, but he had 1,200
28:02yards the season before.
28:06Last year we were talking about Josh Palmer. Look, he's been a great separator, but he's just stuck behind, you know, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams
28:11and Khalil Shakir. That didn't work out.
28:15I'm not going to read you guys the full list of wide receivers again that have busted in Buffalo ever since Stefon
28:19Diggs left, but take my word for it.
28:21It's a long one and it's a rough one.
28:22So, DJ Moore, for me, the on-field signs, particularly this last season in an offense that was top 10 in scoring, that did
28:33make major moves with Ben Johnson, it's enough for me to have DJ Moore be someone I'm not constantly clicking even at, admittedly, a fairly affordable
28:43round five, round six price tag. If DJ Moore is washed, if I'm correct, not that he's this absurdly washed, but if
28:49he is past his prime, he's not going to be the clear-cut wide receiver one that people are expecting in Buffalo.
28:56Khalil Shakir is probably a pretty damn good bargain.
28:58I talked about draft strategy and not wanting to kind of be in a situation where you take a lead quarterback and a
29:03lead tight end cuz that can leave one of your running back or wide receiver positions very thin.
29:08If you are in that situation though and you need a floor play, or even if you're just, you know, deeper 14-team league,
29:14got a couple flexes out there, Khalil Shakir, man, he could just be the guy we're looking past a little bit.
29:19He's already been this kind of wide receiver three-four type, not doing anything downfield. What if he gets asked to do a little bit more in the
29:25offense now?
29:27Dalton Kincaid, that'll be the other thing.
29:30What if he just plays a full-time role?
29:31Kincaid ends up being what Bills fans and fantasy managers were hoping he could be for so many years.
29:37Josh Allen's Travis Kelce. Well, if he needs fine now.
29:41Maybe just maybe your boy Ian, who told you all that Keon Coleman was going to be a great great pick last year at that
29:47wide receiver five price tag.
29:49Maybe I was just a year early. I don't think I was, but I will save with Keon Coleman.
29:56People act like he is just has come into the NFL and been the worst wide receiver in the league.
30:03Hasn't been good.
30:05And you look at the chance the Bills had to get, you know, a Laquon Conk or some of these other players, I get it.
30:139.8 yards per target, 19.2 yards per catch in year one.
30:17He's got eight touchdowns in 26 career games.
30:20That Ravens week one game was a fever dream, but he was out there doing the thing. I know he caught the one tip
30:25touchdown, but he was causing some problems otherwise.
30:28He just needs to get his head screwed on straight. Man, he was getting healthy scratched cuz of stuff that was happening off the field. So, look, I
30:36don't think Keon Coleman's going to turn around and be this god, but last year, the reason why I liked Keon Coleman was
30:42I thought he could be Josh Allen's number one red zone threat and his number one deep ball threat. I thought he could be
30:48You know, we live in a world where Gabe Davis for at least a year was like an upside wide receiver three for Josh
30:52Allen. I thought Keon Coleman could do that. He turned 23 in May.
30:57And if there was going to be an offense, if you want to use kind of DJ Moore argument to get the most out of someone
31:02like that, you would think it's one led by Josh Allen. So, I'm going four out of 10 on the wash scale. I don't think DJ
31:08Moore is someone incapable of providing some goodness. It's been fun seeing some training camp highlights. You know, I've caught those as well.
31:14I think ultimately, the everybody eats mantra has returned such great real-life results that I have a hard time believing they're going to completely
31:22upend that to force-feed DJ Moore. So, where I guess I've softened a little bit on DJ Moore, it's just a boring take. I
31:29feel like he's probably going to finish as a lower-end wide receiver three in fantasy football. And I'd be surprised if we're looking up and DJ Moore is like
31:38a Josh Palmer sort of 2026 season where it's just, yeah, completely unusable and everything like that. I think there'll be a little more
31:47boom-bust than expected. Probably, you know, finishing wide receiver 35-36 at the end of the day. Does he have upside for more? Yes. Again, tough for me to be
31:54barking too hard about it if you guys do want to go ahead and invest in DJ Moore.
31:58But, I am a little bit more on the right side of things here. Dalton Kincaid could lure us to occur and maybe just
32:02maybe a last round dart on Keon Coleman could go a long way.
32:07Wash candidate number seven, second and last quarterback here. We're talking Jets QB Geno Smith, guys. Turned He will be turning, I should say, 36 in October.
32:16Just led the NFL in interceptions and sacks. Frontman for the Raiders, you know, pitiful last place ranked scoring offense. Why he might not be washed.
32:23Well, everything we say about Ashton Jeanty and just, you know, looking at the Raiders last year objectively, who would have actually flourished in
32:31this system? I mean, his one wide receiver that was worth a damn, Jakobi Meyers, got traded midseason. And Brock Bowers was hurt for half the year. So,
32:40Chip Kelly got fired before November ended. The O-line sucked.
32:44You know, I wouldn't say all those sacks were his fault.
32:47Trying to press a little bit too hard.
32:49Nobody to throw the football to.
32:50Turnovers and sacks are going to happen.
32:52That said, it wasn't like Geno's final games or year or two in Seattle were going great.
33:01There's a reason why they took a chance on Sam Darnold, man.
33:05I like the adjusted yards per attempt stat. It's just regular yards per attempt, but it also includes sacks and then it weighs touchdowns and
33:11interceptions as well. 2022, 7.7 for Geno. That's a really good number.
33:16Then it went down to 7.3. Then it went down to 7. Then it went down to 5.9.
33:20ESPN's QBR rating, again, just kind of incorporating yards and kind of situations, touchdowns, interceptions, sacks, all in the one number.
33:2863 to 60 to 50 to 34.
33:33When Geno was at his best and had all the real life, you know, ball knowing fans fans not even fans analysts, like
33:38real life football people saying that this is a legit top 10 quarterback, it was so aesthetically pleasing, man.
33:46The deep balls, the Tyler Lockett between two defenders, hitting Metcalf, you know, deep down field. Like Geno is truly a gunslinger in his heart. And
33:53when these gunslingers work out, there's nothing better to watch in football.
33:58Doesn't it make sense, though, that that sort of player, where you need that arm strength to beat the safety coming over the top?
34:05You need that quick decision-making to squeeze that ball into, you know, the seam before the second safety comes over and gets ready to rip off your boy's
34:12head.
34:14We're getting older. Father Time's undefeated. Geno's now taken four straight years of hits that he didn't have to previously deal with, man.
34:23Geno had a real nice end of his career.
34:27He's still a pretty average journeyman, respectfully.
34:32And I know Ricky, you know, he can't It's like Ricky Bobby saying some really mean stuff after all due respect. I
34:37can't just make up for it by saying respectfully. I'm being a little bit disrespectful. I get it, but it's Geno Smith.
34:44You know?
34:45Is Frank Reich and the Jets going to get the most out of this dude?
34:49Vegas has this as the league's single worst scoring offense going into 2026.
34:53And just because Vegas says this in the preseason doesn't mean we need to assume that they're going to be right about
34:58everything.
34:59Definitely closer to 32 and 16. I'll tell you that.
35:04I like some of the pieces, but more and more, guys, we've liked Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. I get it. Something named Isaiah
35:11Williams is beating out Omar Cooper apparently for a starting job right now.
35:15Kenyon Sadiq is already hurt, and there's murmurs that Mason Taylor could be making his job, you know, tougher to get on the field. So, now the
35:21first-round pass-catchers that we were kind of hyping up as a reason to feel better about the environment might not even really be on the field that much to
35:29start the year.
35:32I like the I like the first-round tackles they've added. They should be good. Interior The offensive line doesn't sound as good.
35:39Is the O-line okay?
35:41Yeah, I don't think they're horrible.
35:44Team RotoWire has them ranked 22nd.
35:48Want to go ahead over to our friends over at Establish the Run. They have them ranked 16th. That's better.
35:55Still not amazing.
35:57And I just can't get away from the fact that Frank freaking Reich is showing this team in 2026.
36:042022, fired mid-season from the Colts.
36:062023, fired mid-season from the Panthers. 2024, did not have a coaching job in the professional or collegiate level. 2025, led the Stanford Cardinal
36:15scoring offense to a bottom-15 finish among more than 130 college football offenses.
36:24Could Geno dial back to 2022? I guess.
36:29Could I have been a Division 1 linebacker if I worked harder?
36:33Probably not, but that's, you know, hey.
36:38Too many ifs here.
36:39And it's too many ifs, guys, for a round three, four pick.
36:43I'm going washed, eight out of 10 on the scale. But what do we say about Aaron Rodgers? Nine out of 10 on the wash
36:49scale, but everyone's so cheap, I think that's priced in. I don't think that this is priced in for Garrett Wilson and Breece
36:56Hall.
36:58They're going in the first four rounds.
37:01For an offense that could finish 32nd and we'd say, "Yeah, okay. We could have seen that coming."
37:06For an offense that could have Cade Klubnik under center in December.
37:12We do see occasionally players from bad offenses overcome them. Breece Hall did it in 2023.
37:19Garrett Wilson last year on a per game basis was a top 15 wide receiver.
37:26It's still pretty rare. Last 10 years, looking at bottom 10 scoring offenses, we've had 14 running backs post top 12 fantasy numbers on a per game basis, and
37:37there's been 12 wide receivers do that.
37:40I get it, Breece and Garrett aren't priced inside their top 12, and maybe they finish RB13 and wide receiver 15, and that would be fine for where you
37:47drafted them, but I prefer to use my round three, round four pick on someone who I believe in my heart of hearts has a chance of
37:53finishing inside a position's top five.
37:56I mentioned those 14 running backs, too.
37:59Last decade, we have never had a season where more than two bottom 10 offenses produced an RB1 in PPR points per game. So, right
38:07now, looking at the group, man, there's five running backs in the top 15, and history tells us that only two of them
38:12are going to finish in the top 12.
38:14Is Bijan Robinson right now? Is Achane Achane? Devon Achane? Breece Hall?
38:19Jahmyr Gibbs? Those are kind of the five offenses that we should be pretty concerned about.
38:26Running backs are going really high anyway.
38:28Bijan's the only one I've made a big habit out of drafting. Three more wash candidates to get to. First though, guys, a quick word to our friends over
38:34at Splash Survivor. I don't know about you, but I do really enjoy mixing in some Survivor stuff into my football season, all right? The fantasy football
38:42stuff is great, but hey, having just one pick a week to try to get a team across the finish line is provocative and I'm
38:48into it. We have some very special deals for you guys. If you want to go on over to Splash Survivor, there's the RotoWire $100,000 guaranteed
38:56prize pool NFL Survivor. This is a traditional Survivor League of $15 entry fee. Again, to get your name in the pot
39:02to win potentially uh some of that $100,000 in prizes. We also have the RotoWire $50,000 Touchdown Survivor.
39:09This one's really cool. It's player-based, okay? So, we're actually doing like an anytime touchdown Survivor League, $25 entry fee for that one.
39:15Again, to get into the $50,000 streets.
39:18Hey, if 50K, 100K, that's not enough for you guys to get excited about it. Well, how about beating your boy Ian and
39:23beating your boy Theo Gremminger, also team RotoWire. We will be competing and I swear to god, guys, I am coming back
39:29for vengeance after freaking Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, and those Cardinals had to ruin things for me last year.
39:35I say that and I was very upset in that batshit crazy game last year where I lost my Survivor pool. I will say that like
39:43Wednesday though, I woke up and I was like, "Ian, why did you use the Cardinals in a Survivor pool in week five?" But, I
39:49digress. Either way, guys, use promo code RotoWire at splashsports.com/rotowire to get a 50% deposit match and a 100% payout boost, helping y'all even more
39:59here. So, again, splashsports.com/rotowire, you can check out the Touchdown Survivor or the regular NFL Survivor. That's splashsports.com/rotowire.
40:07Use promo code RotoWire and you'll get an extra 50% deposit match and 100% payout boost. Washed candidate number eight, Ravens tight end Mark Andrews.
40:15Someone who has not been turning heads in training camp for the most part.
40:19There was some report a couple days ago saying I think they counted one explosive play in team period from tight ends the entire time, and that was
40:25actually by Durham Smythe. Allegedly had a better day here recently, so I'm not trying to completely practice count.
40:31We're not there. We can't see every single pass that's thrown, but in Andrews' case, he turns 31 in September.
40:37He just posted career worst efficiency and counting numbers in 2025. Only had one freaking game with at least 50 receiving yards, so it was not pretty.
40:46But, Isaiah Likely, Charlie Kolar, Lamar Jackson was injured. When he was injured, we had Cooper Rush. Then we had former Pro Bowl quarterback Tyler Snoop
40:55Huntley under center.
40:58Wasn't great. Wasn't a great situation.
41:00Shouldn't have expected a career year for Mark Andrews. Now, again, it is concerning when we're starting to see the age begin with the number three, and
41:07we have career worst numbers, but there is some underlying stuff we should like.
41:13Shout out Fantasy Points their average separation score.
41:16Tight end six last season.
41:18ESPN's open score, again, a metric trying to measure separation on a per route basis, not even just per target.
41:25Tight end one. The best separator in the NFL among tight ends last year, Mark Andrews.
41:32He can still move, guys.
41:34They ran that uh he was a tush push quarterback last year, and they ran a freaking crazy reverse out of it, I think against the
41:40Steelers.
41:42Andrews busted for a 30-yard touchdown.
41:44He joined Brock Bowers as the only tight end in the National Football League last year to have a ball carrier speed of
41:4920-plus miles per hour.
41:51I feel like Next Gen's lying to us, but it's it's out there.
41:55It's real. I did not make it up. Scout's honor.
41:59We have seen tight ends over the years produce more 30-plus fantasy performers.
42:05You look at running backs, only 2% of top 12 fantasy performers over the last decade, rage 31 or more.
42:14Tight ends, 20%.
42:18That's 10 times more.
42:21How's that for your analytics?
42:23Tight ends age better than pretty much any any position other than quarterback, at least in terms of fantasy land.
42:29We got rid of Likely. We got rid of Koller. We don't have new guys in there that are really concerning us.
42:34People are buying into the Jacklin Doyle experience.
42:37He used to get Ben Johnson his coffee.
42:39Maybe he's now Ben Johnson.
42:42If you want to buy into Mark Andrews, you should be buying into Mark Andrews because we have Zay Flowers and we
42:46pretty much don't have anyone else to worry about.
42:50I believe in Rashod Bateman still.
42:51That's my cross to bear.
42:53Tylan can't go a day without seeing him make another sick catch. Which guys, he was doing at USC.
42:59Everyone's like, "Oh my god, Tylan. Look at these great catches."
43:02Put on some of his USC tape. That was all he did. And it was great. And I liked Tylan coming out. I thought he was
43:07going to be a fun day three guy. Broke my brain when all of a sudden he went ahead of Elijah Serratt.
43:13And maybe they end up being fine cuz that would be the other side of this, all right?
43:16Maybe Mark Andrews is washed. I don't think Durham Smythe is going to be someone to pick.
43:20That would be where we start getting more excited about Rashod Bateman and Tylan. Maybe Elijah Serratt, I know he's been a little bit banged up in training
43:26camp as well, but we're only one year removed from Lamar throwing for 4,000 yards and 40 plus touchdowns, man.
43:36I think losing Todd Monken is a bigger deal than people will have perhaps let on.
43:42But the fact this offense was still I think 16th in scoring last year even with everything we saw there. Pretty impressive to me, man.
43:50I've gone back and forth on Andrews. I don't love the words out of camp, but that separation stuff with the next gen
43:56speed, that tells us he's moving around fine, man.
44:01I don't think he forgot how to play football. He caught 11 touchdowns in 2024.
44:05All the competition got wiped away.
44:09I would still take Isaiah Likely over Andrews if I was on the clock in round 11 and I need a late round tight end,
44:14but I do think Mark Andrews is one of guys one of several guys in there with Dallas Goedert with Jake Ferguson where
44:21hey man, throw two darts at him at if throw two darts at him if you want and if we did see Andrews score double-digit
44:27touchdowns this year, albeit not with a ton of yards, can't be that shocked. So, if Andrews is washed, I don't think you
44:33guys should be throwing a late round dart more so at Bateman and Jacoby Lane, but I'm giving him a five out of 10 on
44:38the wash scale. I do think if we get MVP amazing version of Lamar Jackson, which I know is still in there somewhere, Mark
44:45Andrews is going to be a big big beneficiary there.
44:49Two more guys wash candidate number nine, Broncos RB JK Dobbins. The youngest man on the list is 27 years of age right now, will be 28 in December.
44:58It's just the injury caveat, man. Since entering the NFL, he's played 15, 0, 8, 1, 13, and most recently 10 games.
45:06He's been great whenever he's been out there.
45:09NextGen stats rushing yards over expected per carry in his four healthy seasons, second, fourth, 16th, and most recently fourth.
45:17And even last year, man, I've seen like it happened in the Chargers year, too. Like he gets these long runs, runs for 60 yards and like
45:25oh, look how slow he looked at the end.
45:28In terms of his NextGen ball carrier speed, he had a faster top speed than Chase Brown or Travis Etienne.
45:34And you know, some of that's all right, did those guys get the same big hole that Dobbins got, but I don't know, man.
45:40A lot of touches for all three of those players.
45:43JK Dobbins per science was the fastest guy at his peak movement. And even if okay, who's who wins a race a 40-yard race right now?
45:52I'm sure Chase Brown does and maybe Travis Etienne does as well.
45:57It tells me that Dobbins isn't freaking 10 times as slow as these dudes, which he should be feeling good.
46:06Dominated touches last season.
46:09It's not Ramondre and Trey Sermon Henderson we're talking about here.
46:12First 10 weeks of last year, JK Dobbins out-touched RJ Harvey 164 to 75.
46:19But let's say Dobbins is washed. Let's say he's just going to get hurt, which he already did get banged up in training
46:23camp, but he's back at practice, baby.
46:25We're so back.
46:28If Dobbins gets hurt again or he's just washed and he sucks, which I don't think it's going to happen, but RJ Harvey would become someone
46:39I don't think you need to force into every lineup, but could he be a low-end RB2? Yeah. He was an RB1 down the stretch last year.
46:48We could be overstating Justice Hill's involvement.
46:53I don't think we necessarily are.
46:56He's been getting good reviews in training camp.
46:58The little things Justice Hill brings to the table, his pass blocking, his size, his ability to catch the ball and operate in short yardage,
47:04it's problematic enough to think like, man, RJ Harvey's probably not going to command all the early down work and Justice Hill could also be a thorn in
47:12his side, you know, on pass downs.
47:15That's the potential concern. That's why I haven't been drafting much RJ Harvey, but again, had a video about a week ago talking
47:21about guys who sharps are a little bit higher on than the, you know, the squares, pros versus joes, FFPC versus the ESPN, that type of stuff.
47:28Sharps are drafting more RJ Harvey, man.
47:31Full PPR scoring, especially, you can see the path. This dude caught 47 passes in year one. I've checked, it is legal
47:38for players to get better as they go into year two.
47:4182% of running backs who caught at least 50 passes in the season over the last, uh, I should say since 2020,
47:48went on to be a top 24 player in PPR points per game.
47:51That's not a bad floor ceiling combo for RJ Harvey going around the RB3 range.
47:57I just really don't see the reason why I'm still not really drafting RJ Harvey.
48:01I struggle to see the overall like top 10 season, you know, unfolding unless Dobbins and Justice Hill are out of the
48:07picture, but it hardly be the first time a fantasy nerd put too much stock in a day three rookie. You know what I'm
48:12saying? So, I'm going four out of 10 on the wash scale for JK Dobbins.
48:18Is he more injury prone than the regular player? Obviously, but I don't think, you know, Bijan Robinson is a zero out
48:24of 10 and JK Dobbins is a 10 out of 10, you know? Maybe like three out of 10 versus eight out of 10,
48:28but I think we speak about, you know, too binary sometimes. So, that said, four out of 10 wash scale for Dobbins. I haven't made a habit of drop
48:36drafting any of these guys.
48:38Similar to Tampa Bay, man.
48:40We talked about Kenneth Gainwell and his receiving upside as well. So, maybe I'm just missing it on Harvey and Gainwell this year, but in every situation, I
48:46want it like the Pittsburgh Steelers.
48:48I want it so if one guy gets injured, the other guy becomes an immediate every week like arguable RB 1 starter.
48:56I don't want it like Denver. I don't want it like Tampa Bay where we're not one, but we're two injuries away from it
49:01coming to fruition.
49:02It could have come to fruition? Hell yeah.
49:05If you guys have been listening to me for a while, first of all, thank you. I appreciate it, but that Rhamondre Stevenson year back in
49:10like 2021 or two, I think he was still dealing with Sony Michel, but I literally joked about why I was fading him.
49:18And I made the point where it's like, "Hey, if Sony gets out and James White's out of the picture and just three or
49:24four different things needed to happen."
49:27And like clockwork, every freaking one of them wound up happening and Rhamondre Stevenson had a great year. So, it's football. Guys are going to get injured.
49:34Guys are going to get suspended. Balls are going to bounce the wrong way, and then all of a sudden a dude's going to
49:38get benched. I get it. As things stand right now, I do struggle to see the best-case upside scenario for RJ Harvey
49:44and Jonah Coleman, even if JK Dobbins is super washed. And in Dobbins' own right, he dominated the touches last year.
49:51Wasn't like we still loved him in fantasy land. 5 yards per carry and a pretty good Broncos offense. He was RB27
49:57in PPR points per game. So, we've been chasing the Sean Payton RB dragon for quite some time. Has not been working
50:03out in Denver. Would not be surprised that remains the case in 2026.
50:07And finally, our number 10 wash candidate ahead of the 2026 season, Travis Kelce. He will be turning 37 in October. We did actually see a nice step
50:18back in the right direction in terms of yards after the catch. Last year, it was going to straight downhill, uh you know,
50:24like a freaking roller coaster from Cedar Point. Shout out Ohio there.
50:29Kind of a lame reference maybe. I don't know. Shout out Ohio. Anyway, Kelce got the yards after the catch going in the
50:34right direction this past season after it had been going down, but man, tight end nine in PPR points per game with a half season from Rashee Rice,
50:44with Xavier Worthy missing three games, and then when he came back, they weren't willing to give him those short, you know, short area sort of options.
50:51And even that tight end nine, it wasn't like a oh, I can't wait to start Travis Kelce this week tight end nine.
50:571.1 PPR points per game difference between Travis Kelce at tight end nine and Cole Kmet Loveland at tight end 16.
51:05Like Rashee Rice though, I might have my qualms about drafting him, but then you look and you say, well, who did they add this off season
51:12to make you think it's going to be any different? And you don't see too many people. So, it was a 10-year low in targets for
51:17Kelce, but it was still triple-digit targets for Kelce.
51:21I think if you are late in your draft, you kind of missed the boat on tight end.
51:27Maybe you got a Dalton Kincaid.
51:29>> [sighs and gasps] >> Maybe you got a Chigoziem Okonkwo. And you just want someone that you can say, you know what?
51:36I'll get a nine PPR point projection this week, and I can live with that.
51:40Travis Kelce is your guy. I'm going nine out of 10 on the wash scale though. I think I can find that archetype on the
51:45waiver wire, guys. I think Hunter Henry and Travis Kelce are pretty similar at this point in their career. Brevin Strange, maybe A.J. Barner, Dalton
51:52Schultz.
51:53Like Dalton Schultz could outscore Travis Kelce or he could finish within one fantasy point per game. We would not be surprised in the least. So, if I am
52:00going late-round tight end fishing, give me someone who could actually surprise and finish in the top six, man. I think Isaiah Likely and Dalton Kincaid are the
52:08prime late-round tight ends where could we whiff? Sure. We're wrong all the time in fantasy football land, but it's a late-round pick.
52:17And we can just get this archetype of again, the more boring, the lower upside guy on the waiver wire. So, Travis Kelce
52:23nine out of 10 on the wash scale. It He's kind of been washed as it is.
52:28I mean, we're not even doing like necessarily like he'll just get hurt type of situation here cuz then obviously, you know, we'll see the
52:33targets boost up for everyone, but Noah Gray?
52:36I guess he'll be the dude hanging around. I still got him on a few dynasty teams.
52:40Not loving having him there. Jared Wiley?
52:44I don't Noah Gray would become interesting.
52:48I don't think he'd become a weekly top 10 option. If I'm handcuffing a tight end, it's Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer.
52:56Like fantasy football is supposed to be somewhat fun. I'm not putting Noah Gray on a redraft team, you know what I'm
53:01saying?
53:02It'd be good for Kenneth Walker and it'd be more good for She Rice and Xavier Worthy getting some underneath options.
53:08Maybe Jalen Royals.
53:10Maybe that's the deep guy we should be talking about, but I do have a rule and as soon as I mention Jalen Royals, that
53:15means we've probably been talking too much. So, that's going to wrap up this edition of the show, guys. Really appreciate you guys supporting new
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53:25review, maybe leave a mean review. Hey, you know, it's a free country after all.
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54:16But, that's going to do it for me, guys.
54:18Have a great rest of the weekend. I believe this one is going up on Sunday, so hopefully you guys have been enjoying
54:23the preseason action. Going to be back Monday after I have bled from my eyeballs trying to watch all the rest of this
54:29preseason action, getting the takeaways with my top uh post week one preseason ranking takeaways, and help get you guys mind rights for true draft season. So,
54:38that's going to do it for me, guys.
54:39Thanks for tuning in. Until next time, take care, everybody.
