0:05>> How can fantasy managers dominate their auction leagues in 2026 fantasy football drafts? Theo Greninger, lead fantasy analyst right here at RotoWire. You're
0:14going to hear some auction specific shows on other networks. You're going to read some auction articles, but let's make sure that they're having the real
0:23auction players on. I'm joined today by Dan Williamson, one of the best high stakes auction players in the entire country. Dan and I have podcasted a
0:32million times together. We are good friends. Um but Dan, you were you were in the high stakes streets and you were
0:38specifically in the high stakes auction streets. What are some of the levels of entry fee leagues you're planning on this year?
0:46Uh you got some receipts to prove it, too, from the auction side of things.
0:50>> Yeah. Um generally, I'm entering leagues that are between a thousand and fifteen hundred dollars entry fees.
0:57Um I'm for sure doing three in Vegas.
0:59Two of them are fifteen hundred dollars entry fees over at FFPC. And then I'm going to be doing one private auction
1:05that's a thousand dollars entry fee that's just, you know, a a lot of us crazies who get together in Vegas uh
1:11just we get together one night before uh most of the drafting happens in Vegas and and just do our own private auction
1:17that way we don't have to pay a rake or anything.
1:19>> Yeah, the private auction is legendary.
1:22This is one where Dan and you guys have been doing it for years. I'm always out in Vegas.
1:26Um you know, you always see sort of the same people and then you catch up with a lot of friends, but that private
1:30auction, you guys have been doing it for 10 years? I mean, am I wrong on that? Is it more going on 10 years here?
1:36>> More. More More than 10, yeah. It's been It's been going on I'm not even sure how long. I got into it
1:43I would say thir- 12, 13 years ago, something like that. So, >> And you've you've had a couple of you've had a couple of of of big industry guys
1:51occasionally uh show up in that draft.
1:54How have they done against you guys in that auction format.
1:57Without naming names.
1:58>> Um I'm [laughter] not going to name names, but yeah, they often get destroyed because they're they're just not quite prepped up the way that they need to be.
2:08Uh you know, we we we kind of have an advantage um in that all of us have been in these leagues before and so we have a
2:15really good sense of history and ADP and everything else. So, it makes it it makes it a little easier probably for us
2:20to spot the bargains and also we've made a lot of mistakes along the way of how not to build teams. So, we've already
2:26flushed all those out of our system. Uh so, it gets a little crazy because, you know, that a lot of us are are kind of
2:33trying to use the same system, but do it with different players. And so, you you've got to be able to be uh very
2:39agile, for sure.
2:40>> So, we're going to reveal some of those edges that that Dan and some of the best high-stakes drafters in the entire
2:46country are using in their auction formats. Let's start off right from the top. What's the number one edge auction drafters can have when they enter into a
2:55competitive auction draft? This is not like I show up in my home league and I know that there's seven guys that don't
3:02know what they're doing and maybe four guys that I have to compete with. Let's say I enter a draft where I know there's
3:0811 other very smart people I'm competing against. What are a couple edges or one or the edge that you see?
3:16>> Yeah, really the edge, it you know, to to narrow it down is to remember that starting out you can have any player you
3:23want, Theo. And that's both exciting and terrifying because, you know, there are no limits like a snake draft. You know, a snake draft, if you have pick 10, you
3:33are not getting Bijan Robinson. You're not getting Jahmyr Gibbs. That's not the case in an auction. In an auction, you could get both of those guys. You could
3:39build a team around Bijan, Bowers, and Puka if you wanted to. Those are all three first-round players. No way you could do that in a snake draft. But, the
3:47thing is, you know, okay, maybe you get those three players. Can you put a good enough team together around them to make
3:54it work or did you just kill yourself by not you know, the rest of your team being horrible and those three players aren't
4:01enough to carry you. So, you got to have a flexible mindset coupled with a strong grasp of how much the player should cost
4:08based on the ADP. So, you basically what that means is you if you're willing to pay the price, pay it, but you also need
4:14discipline cuz there's so many different ways to screw up.
4:18>> When you're And and so, if you're in like an FFPC draft or an NFFC draft, are you looking at like what the former
4:26prices paid were on like maybe a couple of auction drafts leading up to it, even though the data might be smaller than
4:32like, let's say a $350 contest or even the $2,000 contest? Um or you coming up with sort of your own prices for for
4:40players where I this is kind of a max bid, maybe a low bid when it comes to not necessarily every single player, but
4:48what the the players that you specifically want to get in drafts?
4:52>> Yeah, so basically what I do is I've I've looked at these leagues historically and it prices really follow ADP
5:02quite closely. And there's just kind of a pricing curves. I mean, prices obviously drop pretty steeply if you're paying $60 for the you know, like a
5:11Jamison Gibbs or Bijan Robinson.
5:14There's not many players who can go at that price before people start running out of money. And you know, as I'm
5:19talking here just to just to kind of throw it out there, I'm talking based on a 12-team league with a $200 budget
5:26and 20 players per team. So, you're you're talking a deep league, you're talking a fairly large league with with 12 teams and the $200 budget is usually
5:35pretty standard in auction. Some places go with a hundred, but you know, what whatever you do, you can convert it over into percentages
5:44too, you know, so like you know, if I say $60 on a $200 budget, that means, you know, Jahmyr Gibbs is actually costing 30% of
5:52my budget. So, does that make sense?
5:55>> Yeah, no, I think that makes a lot of sense. And I think there's a lot of people who are going to be watching this
6:00looking for like, maybe they have one specific auction draft, maybe they're new to auctions. When you take a step back and you go bird's-eye view, what
6:09what are some of the like the biggest differences in like auction draft preparation versus standard re- redraft preparation? Do you think it really
6:17comes down to like the mentality that I can get anyone? And I I maybe it's the ADP thing or or you looking at a little
6:23more nuanced?
6:25>> Yeah, it's kind of nuanced. I mean, basically, you've got to have the the background knowledge, uh, which is not that hard to acquire
6:33usually. Um, but you've just got to you've got to understand that knowledge, and then it makes it so you can build those teams.
6:40So, you know, first off, I got to know how many total players are going to be drafted by all the teams,
6:46uh, because that tells me, you know, how far, you know, my $200 budget for 12 teams, 20 players, that $200 is got to cover,
6:56you know, everybody drafting 240 total players. So, we're going to have $2,400 worth of auction dollars chasing 240 players.
7:07Uh, you know, so the average price of each player is $10.
7:10Uh, but most of them are going to go for far less than that because basically, if you know how many total players are
7:15going to be drafted by the teams, the smaller that total is, the more expensive the players are going to be.
7:20So, like, if you're in a um for example, a league that's 10 teams and you have 14 roster spots, uh, your start, you know, your Jahmyr Gibbs
7:31and Bijan Robinson are going to be more expensive for you to buy than they are going to be for me to buy in my
7:3712-team $200 budget. Does that make sense?
7:39>> It ma- it It actually total sense, and it's sort of like when you talk to players like yourself or Nelson Sousa or
7:46Abbi Betoba or Chad Schrader or any of like the best players in high stakes, it's sort of like the rudimentary thing
7:53is know your format. Know the rules of your league, and I think that applies to anyone whether you're in a $25 entry
8:01league or a $2,500 entry league. We get so caught up on where guys should be ranked, but it's like take a step back
8:08and understand what the scoring format you're in, the number of players, and I think it starts out like that pretty much anywhere in fantasy football.
8:18>> Yeah, definitely. And having a good history for the league helps out. I mean, if you've been in the league before,
8:25hopefully you've saved like what players went for last time because you can use that information to help you kind of gauge values.
8:33If you don't have a history, you know, ask people who you know, whoever invited you to the league, "Hey, do you have a
8:39history of you know, the last year or maybe 2 years or whatever where I can see what players were going for cuz you can take that
8:47information and then kind of figure out how does this league value players, you know, do they spend a lot on the you
8:53know, the early players?
8:56Do they tend to hoard their money a little bit more? You just get a better idea of what's been happening. And
9:01because there's really a kind of a value curve between ADP and prices. You know, and I've I've talked about this a little
9:07bit already. Basically, you know, the earlier players go for super expensive, and then the later players they get progressively cheaper much faster. So,
9:17like by the time you get to the end of the second round, you know, like right now Derrick Henry in a in an FFPC is
9:24going around the end of round two, right, Theo?
9:27>> Yeah, he right around that two-three turn a little bit earlier than that.
9:31>> Right. So, you know, basically by the time we get down there, you you again with our 12 teams $200 budget,
9:38where I'd have been paying $60 or maybe a little more for Bijan and and Jahmyr Gibbs, I'm paying around $30 or a
9:44little, you know, maybe 31 or something like that for Derrick Henry.
9:49And that tends to hold true from year to year to year. So, basically I've I've kind of looked at many different years
9:59um across different auctions with different people in them, and the same value curve holds. And I just I I take all those historical prices and I just
10:09go from highest to lowest, and I put them right next to a very fresh ADP where I can see, you know, okay,
10:17uh the third highest price, that's going to be what I would expect to pay for, you know, probably Ja'Marr Chase. And
10:25so I look at Ja'Marr Chase, the 40th higher price. I look at ADP 40, and that's probably around, you know, $25 or
10:33something like that. That's what I expect to pay for a player who's going around ADP 40. So, I can just kind of
10:39look at at a fresh set of ADP, and if I've got the historical pricing right next to it, boom, I can look down that
10:47pricing, look at the player, how much did he cost? Did he cost $25?
10:52Hey, the bidding's start- stalling out at 21 or 22, I'm in on that player if I like him.
10:58Uh but if the bidding gets up to 27, 28, 29, even if I like him, I'm probably going to be out on that player because
11:03I've probably got somebody else I can pivot pivot to. Does that make sense?
11:06>> No, it makes total sense, and I think it a lot of this comes down to draft prep.
11:10We talk about like very simple ways that you can kind of have edges to winning, but I think there's also not defeating yourself. Um there are
11:19certain ways you can sort of just screw your draft up in an auction setting, maybe more so than than even a redraft
11:25setting. Um what are sort of the biggest mistakes where you go in and and you see these auction drafters make, where maybe
11:32you're at a table in Vegas stand, and let's say it's a $1,500 draft, and you recognize eight guys at the table, but
11:39then you see that one guy, and he makes a big mistake early on, and you say, "Okay, this guy might be a a little bit
11:44of a fish." Who What would be sort of like the biggest mistakes you see people make go making in auction drafts? Maybe
11:51it's a tell that they're a little bit inexperienced.
11:54>> Yeah, how much time do you have, Theo?
11:56>> In the the >> [laughter] >> the abridge the abridge from it. Give us the >> greatest hits. The greatest hits.
12:02>> So, the greatest hits. You know, for for one thing, it's it's good to use auction values from a site that you trust, but
12:09you got to make sure that they're going to kind of match the auction that you're in, because they're not always the same. You
12:14know, what I do, if I'm going to use like auction values from a, you know, any any site on their cheat sheet, you
12:21know, they might have the auction values listed in, I'll take all those auction values. Say they got 200 players on their cheat
12:28sheet, I'll add up all the auction values and see how much that adds up to.
12:32Is that anywhere close to what my budget is? Like if if it adds up to 2,200 bucks, and my budget's 2,400, I know
12:39this is probably pretty good you know, sheet for me to use, because, you know, the the total number of players I'm
12:46going to draft kind of matches up, and everything matches. But, if you don't have that, it makes it really hard, because you might be using bad values.
12:54You know, and if you use auction software, that's great, but, man, try to practice somewhere with it first.
13:01>> Yeah.
13:01>> Especially before you get into a high-stakes draft or auction, because, you know what? That is not the time to be learning on the
13:08fly, or to realize that you don't know how to use this particular function on it, or whatever.
13:15You know, I use my own cheat sheets and my own Excel programs that I've I've kind of built over the years, and they work really well for me,
13:25but I know of other people, you know, use like Football Guys or other you know, auction software. I don't know if Rotowire has auction software, if
13:33they do, you know, that might be one to check out, too.
13:36>> check out. Def- Definitely definitely want to check out Rotowire for for our auction values and my rankings as well.
13:42>> I do there, Theo? How was that from the plug?
13:44>> we we like we like those guys over there, but but our stuff is really locked in. Uh and you can use the code
13:49Theo15, get 15% off. I'll give you a big shout, Dan. Like the two of us and and it's no secret. Like we're very good
13:56friends and we've we split teams together. Um the two of us and Andrew Shellenberg in Vegas, we do a $3,000 entry FFPC Varsity team. Um that's the
14:07if you're drafting Vegas, um you that's the 9:00 a.m. Vegas one uh on on the opening Thursday. I guess it's opening
14:14Wednesday this year, but Thursday uh of the first week of the NFL season, we do a draft in the morning. We'll do that
14:19again. Then Dan and I usually do like one or two other drafts out in Vegas together. Um and Dan, I think anybody
14:26who sort of isn't following you is sort of doing themselves a disservice. Uh Dan is a co-host of Fantasy Empire and you
14:34saw Nelson Sousa on my podcast before.
14:37So that's Dan and Nelson with Matt Modica and then Chris Vaccaro, two of the other like better high-stakes players out there, especially in NFFC.
14:46Matt Modica does a ton of FFPC drafts as well.
14:49Um so those four together do Fantasy Empire, but you're also doing a show called The Dominator. I came on The Dominator recently. Uh that's a great
14:57show. Why don't you tell everybody what you're doing with that?
14:59>> Yeah, basically that's a a show that really kind of goes back to my old Goat District roots, which of course, Theo,
15:06you also know quite well.
15:08Uh but it's just a a show where I can sit down and talk to somebody who's a high-stakes drafter, maybe you know, a
15:15fantasy analyst or whoever.
15:17Uh anyone that I think is really really interesting and that might have something for you know my listeners to to be able to grab onto new ideas or new
15:27thing ways of thinking about things new ways of looking at things what are high stakes drafters doing you know that's what I want to explore on the show so
15:33every every show I try to keep it round an hour and you know just talk with one person and you know we usually will have
15:40a a subject Jim Coventry came on we talked about ADP bargains I had uh uh Zane Denani on and we talked about
15:49you know his article um on wide receivers and how to spot wide receiver values better so all kinds of different things that we do on the
15:59dominator but mostly [clears throat] it's just if you get on there hopefully you're going to learn something cuz I'm usually learning something every week
16:05too.
16:06>> And and anywhere you get your podcast to put in the dominator um really really strong stuff with with from Dan and make sure you're following
16:12me you'll be better at fantasy football if you listen to Dan Williamson I know and guys everybody like sort of has like
16:17that one buddy where you bounce trade advice off of uh if I'm dynasty wise sometimes Dan and I go up against one
16:25another but I'm constantly texting with Dan Williamson and give a shout out to our friend Austin Martin sort of if I'm
16:31on if I need a dynasty question answered usually Dan's the one where I'm bouncing like trade ideas and he's bouncing trade
16:37ideas off of me as well so I just you can kind of get the same thing I'm getting Dan Williamson at fantasy
16:43football advice if you follow the dominator but if you text him he's probably going to be weirded out cuz he's going to say how do you get my
16:48phone number or something like that.
16:50>> If you don't mind Theo though I'm going to go back I still got a few mistakes that we >> Oh yeah yeah let's do let's go back
16:55let's go back with the mistakes.
16:57>> Okay uh you know and and some of these are pretty quick and easy but um you know first off if you don't have a plan going
17:03into the auction uh that's the hugest mistake you can make just random bidding is a terrible idea if you don't have a
17:09plan um you're you're going to end up with a bad team almost guaranteed. Another big mistake I see people making is trying to
17:17be a price enforcer. I mean, you know, when you're when you're when you're on a in the middle of an auction, you see a
17:22player going for too cheap, if he fits your build, great. But, if he doesn't fit your build, you got to be careful
17:28how much you spend. Anytime you make a bid, you better be willing to pay that amount because you never know when it's
17:34going to stop. And bargains are going to happen. You can't stop them all, you know? So, a bargain isn't a bargain if
17:40the player doesn't fit your plan.
17:44And then, you know, make sure you're willing to change that plan on the fly, too. If you've misjudged pricing somewhere, like I remember one year a
17:52couple years back, the wide receivers for some reason were going off way more expensive than the running backs. Even, you know, using my little ADP cheat
18:00sheet thing, it was like all these running backs were coming in as values and all these wide receivers were coming in like they were overpays. And, you
18:07know, after a little ways into the auction, I realized, you know what?
18:12People are just paying up for wide receiver this year, and they are not willing to spend for running backs. So, I had to kind of, you know, change my
18:18plan around a little bit. I I had a certain number budgeted for wide receiver. I had to steal some money from
18:24running back and move it over to wide receiver and say, "Okay, I'm going to I'm going to spend more on wide receiver, and then I'll spend a
18:30little bit less on the the running backs."
18:33Um another thing, we'll we'll get into this, too, later, but don't spend too much on your backups. That's a that's one thing I see a lot of people doing.
18:40Um it's just spending too much on backups, and they you don't have enough good players in your starting lineup. Um and in and during the whole process of
18:47an auction, Theo, you want to really be watching the body language of everybody in the auction because it's going to tell you a lot, and you got to
18:55watch your own body language as well, and watch how you do things. Like, I vary around my nominations. Sometimes I'm nominating players I want. Sometimes
19:04I'm nominating players I don't want. Um sometimes when I'm bidding on players, I'll bid on players that I don't want as
19:11long as I know the bid's going to go higher just to you know so that when I do bid on a player I want people don't
19:18go oh Dan's bidding so he must want this player.
19:22I want them to not I want them to not be sure. Does Dan really want this player or is he just trying to bid me up you
19:28know and so being able to do that again without being a price enforcer and getting caught on a player you don't
19:35want that's the tough thing but uh you know you you want to make sure that you're kind of varying that around
19:41because if people get a handle on you they're going to exploit that and if you can get a handle on what somebody else
19:46is doing you can exploit that. And then last last but not least don't don't be impatient but don't be afraid to come
19:53out hot if the value is there. Sometimes in auctions I you know we're 30 players deep in an auction and I haven't bought
19:59a single player yet.
20:01And there's other times where we're 10 players deep and I've already bought four you know it it just depends on the
20:07you know if I see the values are coming you right away I'm going to be in on those values.
20:12But if I'm looking at it and I'm going yeah these players really aren't values everybody's overspending early they're all you know hyped up and everything
20:20then I'm just going to wait I'm going to let them kind of spend themselves out a little bit I won't wait until all the
20:24good players are gone but I'll I'll I'll wait them out a little bit and wait until prices will drop because of
20:30inevitably prices will drop that's the one thing you know in an auction prices are always going down they're going to bounce up and down from player to player
20:38that gets nominated and more popular player gets nominated is going up.
20:43But as you go through the auction there's always less and less money available for everybody to spend so people have to be more and more careful
20:49with it.
20:50>> I love it I I think that's tremendous advice I mean it's really Dan it's similar to poker in a sense
20:56with a lot of the things you're talking about.
20:59>> Yeah yeah exactly I mean you know you just you the better you can read the room the the you can do I mean you know with
21:06poker, you you can't change what your hand is. Um in an auction though, you know, again, with every player available anytime, you
21:15know, you've you've got a lot to think about all the time as you're going through an auction. You know, it's not
21:20like a draft where, you know, you make your pick and you're like, "Okay, I can turn off my brain for 10 picks." And
21:25then I'll just mindlessly be crossing off players and then "Okay, now it's getting close to my turn again. Now I can start thinking about
21:32who I want." With an auction, every player that goes up you got to be thinking about, "Do I want this Does
21:36this player fit my bill? How much money do I have? Does it, you know, there's so much going through your head." So, uh
21:42you it is a lot like poker in that way.
21:45>> Yeah, and it's interesting and a lot of people listening will say, "Well, well, Dan, I'm I'm in an online one. So, how
21:49am I supposed to get these little tells?" You can still tell the guys that are overly active, overly bidding. You still see the same sort of aggression um
21:57whether you're in a live room or not. A lot of I think auction drafts a lot of times for fantasy football, uh they lend
22:03themselves towards being live, but I have been in some online auctions as well. And then before I sort of jumped the gun on that one, but so basically
22:11you sort of answered it where it's the value presented to you, sort of like a value-based drafter in a sense where you seem sort of open-minded to
22:21different kinds of builds based on the values that are being presented to you rather than going in and saying, "It's got I need that foundational running
22:30back running back start."
22:32>> Yeah, exactly. I mean, you know, I I sometimes go into auctions with pretty specific plans about, you know, my top
22:39two or three players and then I'm very open after that. Other times I go into an auction and I'm a little bit more
22:45open to, you know, "Hey, I'm going to grab one of these five players uh for my first player, one of these five players
22:54for my second player." When I first say first or second, I don't know when they're going to come in the auction
22:58because of course players could be nominated in any order. You know, you might you might have Darnell Mooney nominated before uh
23:05you know, Jamar Chase.
23:07You know, so you've got to be able to deal with the fact that you're going to you know, values are going to be
23:11bouncing all over the place all the time.
23:14But I'll usually I'll try to make two or three different options based around the key players that I want. I know what
23:20they likely cost and then I'm trying to find a way to build the best team around them and I do that before I ever walk
23:24into the auction room. Like I walk in there and I'm like, okay, I'm going to spend, you know, $45 on my RB1, I'm
23:31going to spend about 30 bucks on my RB2 or whatever the case may be. You know, and I just kind of figure out a plan.
23:37And I can play with dream scenarios, too. Like I can try, you know, I'll play around with can I build a team around
23:43Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson, you know? Because you can do that. So, I think it's I think it's really important to decide, you know, okay, which players
23:53do I think are going to determine leagues this year? And I want to make sure I get some of those players on my
24:00team because if I don't, you know, basically I'm just hoping that these players that I think are super great, I'm hoping for them to fail. I don't
24:07like that. So, you know, you want to you want to make sure that you are building around players that you can you can really use.
24:14And again, you know, you're not limited to you know, well, I can only have one player in the first round. I could have
24:19two or three players in the first round.
24:21I just got to find a way to build around it, you know? And another thing to do that is make sure you got several
24:26options for each position. Like you know, in the running backs, Theo, you know, Omari and Hampton, Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker, they'll all
24:33probably go for about 35 to $40, you know, if their values still were they are right now. And I'd be happy with any
24:39of them. So, when the first one comes up, I'm like, okay, bidding stalled out at 33 $33 on Ameer Abdullah, I'm in. I'm going to I'm going to bid 34
24:50and hope I get him.
24:52But if the bidding goes up to 43, 44, I'm out. You know, I I've still got Chase Brown and Ken Walker yet to go in
24:59this auction. I'll try to grab one of those guys. But, the important thing is and and you kind of talked about this,
25:06at the end of a tier, uh, you know, those it's it's going to get more expensive.
25:12So, like if Ken Walker is the last running back in that tier of running backs, he's going to get expensive because
25:20everybody's going to realize this is my last chance to get a running back out of that tier.
25:25Three or four people already have a running back out of that tier. Everybody else kind of wants one. And so, the
25:30bidding gets a little bit crazy. So, if you can get in on the earlier middle part of a tier, then boom. That's where you want to get
25:38in because probably you're going to pay your your lowest prices during that point. At the end of the tier, that's when things get pricey.
25:45>> I love that, Dan. And I think everybody's been in an auction before where it's like deer in the headlights with the first super expensive player.
25:53And you might have like wide receiver one overall go for like $65.
25:59And then wide receiver four overall gets up there and he's like $75. And you're like, why did I pay more money
26:06when I could have had Ja'Marr Chase or Puka Nacua? It's because you weren't aggressive when the value was presented yourself. And maybe you wanted to keep a
26:13little too much money in the bank when it wasn't the time to be to be like passive. You should have been more
26:20aggressive.
26:21It's very simple. When you enter one of these and this is and again, some people are going to be in leagues where it's
26:27like 15-man rosters, some are in 20-man, some are in 10-man, you know, formats versus 14-man formats. Like, whatever.
26:35When we get back to the nitty-gritty of it, is there an ideal percentage of your budget entering these auction drafts that should be spent on starting lineup
26:45filled out? Like, your starters should cost you how much of 100%?
26:51>> Yeah, I I think at the minimum you want to be spending 85% of your budget on your starters. And the shallower the
26:58league, the more you should spend.
27:00Because you're you know, really the waiver wire becomes your bench at that point. So like if you're in a 10 team
27:05league with 14 players on your team, you're only drafting 140 players. The waiver wire is going to be stacked, Theo. So you don't need to worry about
27:15who are my bench players.
27:17My entire bench is going to be a dollar players in that situation. I'm going minimum bid on all those cuz I don't
27:22really care who I have. I'm putting as much as I can into my starting lineup.
27:27And then now the rest of the players I'm going to worry about, you know, getting getting those guys throughout the course
27:34of the season. If I don't have the right guys on my team right now, maybe after week one or week two, you know, I'll
27:39I'll be shuffling around and I'll use my free agent budget to get that. And you know, in in leagues like that, I might
27:45even have, you know, three of my starters might even be dollar players.
27:50You know, cuz I want to I want to try to get more studs than anybody else in the league in that situation. Because in a
27:56small league like that, the guy with the most studs probably wins it. So it it really shifts your your strategy that way. On the other hand, if you got
28:05a 14 team league with 20 20 players on each roster, yeah, most of my bench is going to be dollar players, but I'm going to have a
28:12couple of three to five dollar players because you know what? The waiver wire in those, you know, 14 team leagues with
28:18with 20 players gone, the waiver wire is destitute. There's nothing on the waiver wire pretty much the entire year.
28:25So I'll spend up a little bit to have one or two good bench players that I can sub in for bye weeks.
28:31And I will pay more attention to bye weeks in those kind of leagues, too, because how I manage my buys is is
28:36really crucial, you know, so I I generally in, you know, when I when I do these 12 team 20 player leagues,
28:45I'm saying about 90% of my budget is going to be spent on my starters. If you spend less than that, you're handicapping yourself, you
28:52know, because you know, it's it's like the the deepest team doesn't win. The best starting lineup wins. So, you want to make sure you have a good starting
29:00lineup.
29:01>> So, do you think and a lot of times you'll hear people talking about stars and scrubs as their auction approach? Is
29:08that like is that the way that the most of your builds end up looking or is when when you say like, you know, you're
29:15using that 85%? Is there more of a comfort level towards having a little bit more balance, maybe winning the flex as opposed to winning every single like
29:24stars and scrubs type battle? Little bit uh confusing the way I I I phrased that, but basically balance versus stars and
29:32scrubs when you're following this 85 to 90% rule. Is there one answer to this or is it you can build it both ways?
29:40>> I mean, you can build it either way, but I think it's a lot harder to do uh what I call team silo, you know,
29:48which is having a bunch of really, you know, pretty good players, but you don't really have those stars because, you know, you're spending you're spending
29:56$25 on, you know, ev- six players in your starting lineup or something like that, you know, okay, we've now I've spent 150 bucks and, you
30:05know, but I've got six six really good players, but I don't have any great players because I didn't spend up for
30:11great players. So, I don't like that strategy. Usually, it makes for harder lineup decisions, too. You know, like I'll I'll see people who will go in, you
30:20know, and they'll they'll have a whole lot of, you know, $10 players, which basically equate to like seventh or eighth round players.
30:26You know, and it's like they they've got, you know, their their their bench is loaded, but now they've got all these crappy
30:34decisions to make during the course of the season. Now, they're trying to figure out, okay, which of these you know, I got to put in three wide
30:42receivers and I've got six wide receivers that are all about the same and you know, they're none of them are super reliable, uh but any of them could
30:51go off and you got these really, really difficult decisions. Whereas if I've got you know, Jamar Chase and Drake London and Terry McLaurin, I'm starting those
31:01three guys every single week and my bench is my bench and I don't have to worry about it. So, you know, again, the
31:08best starting lineup wins. If you don't have anchor players, you're in trouble.
31:12So, I I don't like the silo approach. I want to have stars and scrubs, but it's a little bit uh it it it's a little bit tough to do the
31:21first time because you know, you get those star players, they usually go off early in the auction and then you're sitting there and you've
31:28got uh you know, $20 to spend on your last 12, 13 players or maybe even 15 players.
31:38You know, it's like you barely have any money, you're going to be pretty much at the minimum for most of the rest of your
31:43players and it really sucks. But, you know what? You can work your way out of it. You just got to be patient and dig
31:49through the auction and find those values because the values always come in the end.
31:53>> So, you would would you say that the the silo approach is the auction strategy that's like overrated um or there are
32:01like other auction approaches besides silo that you would find as like the maybe the most overrated strategy that you see people trying to pull off?
32:09>> Yeah, I I'd say silo is the most overrated. Um you know, and actually the first couple years I started out
32:16auctioning, uh I was team silo because I was like, yeah, you know, I'm going to I'm I'm going to have this team. It's going to
32:22be super deep and you know, nobody's going to be able to overcome my depth cuz I know a lot of injuries happen
32:28during the season.
32:29And it just didn't it didn't work out.
32:32Uh as a matter of fact, I was sitting next to Jack Han who who you know is a a great auction player.
32:38Um and there was a a a a guy from uh one of the websites that was really big back at that time, and he
32:46was in this auction as well. And he and I were sitting next to my next to each other, and we were both building these
32:52silo teams. And we were both looking at each other like, "Man, you got a good team, you know? Man, you got a good
32:56team." And we were just egging each other on, you know, like what great teams we had. And then Jack comes up at
33:01the end of the auction. He goes, "I'll bet you guys 200 bucks each that you finish worse than me."
33:07And you know, we're like, "Okay."
33:11And he's like, "Yeah, 200 bucks each.
33:14I'll finish better than both of you guys."
33:16"Okay."
33:18And [laughter] sure enough, Jack finished better than both of us because he had team Stars and Scrubs. We had team Silo.
33:24>> Yeah, I'll give I'll give Jack Jack Hanna a big shout-out cuz he's talked trash to me in live drafts before, too.
33:30Uh but the guy's a very guy's a very successful uh high-stakes manager, and you know, it's not great to get the guy
33:36talking trash to you, but occasionally it happens.
33:38Um I hope you're doing well, Jack. Hope you're doing well, Jack. Um so, it really interesting stuff. I think it like if you're listening to this from
33:45like a redraft lens, and it's really the Stars and Scrubs like every year in fantasy football when we look at like advanced rates, whether
33:54it's a big contest, whether it's Underdog or FFPC or NFFC, or simply you're in a few Sleeper and ESPN leagues, and you're like, "Oh, the guy
34:03that won this league and won this league and won this league all had these three players." It's because advanced rates and uh as Scott Barrett would call it
34:12like power law players, there's just only a handful of like true league winners. And even though we're getting better and better as identifying like
34:21maybe the third round value, the fourth round value, maybe the sixth rounder, the best seventh round pick, even if we can hit on a couple of those guys, at
34:30the end of the day, we know that a few of those 20-plus point per game scorers are going to be first and second round
34:36picks. That's why those are so valuable.
34:38So, stars and scrubs maybe gives you access to in a regular redraft format, Dan, I might walk out of there with
34:46two guys who are technically two guys, maybe three if my league's dumb. Um maybe my third rounder might be a fifth top 15 value and they
34:53just underrated but in an auction draft, I can legitimately walk out with four of the top 20 players in fantasy football
35:01and then build my team elsewhere. And if I hit on those four as great values at ADP essentially, then I'm have a leg up.
35:10>> Yeah, exactly. I mean, it it's kind of like you know, gambling in Vegas. It's really tough to beat the house. It's
35:16really tough to beat ADP, you know, that's that's the best sense we have of you know, what what are the best players
35:24to have on my team. It ADP tells you this is you know, it's been crowd-sourced. It's been you know, experts have been weighing in on all
35:33these players. They've been moving up.
35:34They've been moving down and and there's nothing better than ADP.
35:38Now, I think I have a better idea on some players than ADP and you think you have a better idea on some players than
35:44ADP and maybe we'll be right but you know, there's no guarantee of that. So, the the best way is to make sure you've
35:50you've got a few high ADP players and then do your sharpshooting after that. I mean, that's that's where you rely on
35:56your skills as a player evaluator is you say, you know what? I'm better at picking the bargains out of here than
36:02everybody else. So, I can afford to spend more on these top two, three, four players and then I'm going to sharpshoot
36:08my way the rest of the way through the draft and that's that's the best way to do it.
36:12>> Yeah, no, for sure. It's ADP is is so valuable in understanding using those like an ADP where I'm always telling
36:18people make sure you're checking out at the very least Underdog, DraftKings, NFFC, FFPC, real ADP sources. A lot of times, even if I play in a sleeper
36:30league exclusively or ESPN or Yahoo exclusively, if I go look at ADP in July, it's going to show me a bunch of
36:38mock draft data that doesn't matter as much. Those other drafts will have ADP coming from real money drafts. And if you want to play against Dan and I in
36:47NFFC, use the code Theo and you'll get $20 off a $350 entry. Compete against us in the Dan's going to have a couple of
36:55dozen or so of those 350s rocking. You might even show up and see see Dan in those drafts. Overhyped Sleeper, is that
37:02the team name in the NFFC and FFPC most of the time, Dan?
37:05>> Yeah, generally, especially in the FFPC it is. In the NFFC, sometimes I get lazy and it just puts my my own name down
37:12there. So, sometimes it's Dan Williamson, sometimes it's Overhyped Overhyped Sleeper. But, uh yeah, usually I'm not too hard to spot in in those
37:19drafts.
37:20>> Usually, Andrew, me and you are are like the overhyped clutch OGs or something.
37:26But, when me and you split a team up >> over clutched OGs. That's what it is.
37:29>> OGs. But, me and me and you when we split teams, we got we got nowhere to hide. It's usually Greminger-Williamson.
37:35You come at us, we're we're ready to rock. Um let's keep it going. A couple of couple of more points. Um one like
37:41let's go rapid fire on this one. Do you ever intentionally overpay because of replacement cost? Like, you know, let's say you you the the strategy isn't going
37:50well for you. Um like we talked about kind of mistakes people can make, but do you ever walk out and you overpaid for a
37:56guy, but you still feel like it was the winning strategy because again, guys are flying off the board. Maybe you made a mistake early. And I would rather
38:04overcome my mistake by overpaying by 15% than sitting there and saying, "Oh, I'm not I'm not doing that." Um do you ever
38:12occasionally overpay and still consider it a win?
38:16>> Yeah, sometimes you have to. Um you know, generally, if I've been doing my job throughout the the auction.
38:23Um it's not going to happen to me because I'm going to find that that value. I've got enough players marked out that I'm
38:30interested in that I've, you know, these players will fit my team and I can just kind of be patient and grab that one
38:36that's a a bargain. If If I start running low on those players, you know, in a particular tier of running back or
38:43whatever, and I still haven't found my bargain, then I'm going to start, you know, be willing to pay a little bit more cuz I
38:50don't want to get stuck with that last guy in the tier cuz again, that's where you're going to really overpay.
38:55You know, and if I do get to that point and I really got to have that player, yeah, I'll pay it, but it's going to
39:00cost me elsewhere and I'm not going to be as happy about my team walking out because I will have had to take money
39:06off of some other positions and stick it into that player. And so, I'm going to I'm going to be walking out with a a
39:13weakness somewhere else because I had to overpay for that strength.
39:17>> Yeah, I feel like a lot of times it it's sort of like in redraft where there's a positional run and sometimes you just
39:24need to jump into it. Um and usually people will say, "Oh, don't let the positional run influence you." But once in a while when that positional run
39:33starts, you end up get left holding the bag. Same thing in auctions. So, once in a while like, would I like to change my
39:39strategy because a bunch of guys are flying off the board? Not ideally, but you have to be able to read the room.
39:44And Dan is absolutely right. You'd rather win your draft than win your spreadsheet. Um Dan, let's talk about end game strategy and this is something
39:52where we really stress over here on all my shows is when you're in a redraft format, you really need to have those
39:59last few round uh targets. We find it in best ball as well, Dan, where we need to have those guys we can get in like
40:06rounds 15 through 20 or 15 through 18 depending on your format. Same thing in redraft, same thing in best ball. How
40:13important is it to you to have those $2 and $1 players that you're super comfortable with that you know that you
40:21want to walk away with at least a handful of of those guys.
40:25>> Yeah, exactly. I mean, you know, when we're talking about a stars and scrubs, you know, you're going to be needing to
40:32find a lot of one and $2 players, probably more $1 players even than $2 players. And and trying to get those
40:39players that you really like and sneak them through an auction is a really a bit of an art. Uh because, you know,
40:47everybody is aware, you know, when there's when there's too much money running around, you know, and you nominate a player for a dollar,
40:54somebody's almost always going to jump on and say two and three and four. And sometimes what I like to do is I like to
41:00nominate some of these, you know, scrubs that I have no interest in. I'll just nominate them and get peop- you know,
41:05early in the auction and just get people bidding, you know, uh five, six, eight dollars for a player that's really no better than a player
41:12I'm going to get for one or two dollars later.
41:15You know, so early on in the auction, I'm already starting to set up my strategy by throwing out some players that I really don't want while there's
41:22still a lot of money around it, you know, that's willing to chase them. And especially if they happen to be, you
41:27know, players who are a little bit steamy or whatever. If I'm off them, I'm always nominating those steamy players that I'm off because they're just
41:35bleeding other other people of their money. And so, when it comes around to players I do want, they've got less money to spend, so I'm more likely to
41:42get the price I want. But yeah, those dollar and two dollar players, you know, you got to sneak them through. Sometimes
41:48if you got a really gross player that nobody else wants, you can sneak them through. Like um you know, like if I
41:55think I'm going to be getting Omari and Hampton, um and he's one of my target players, I might very early in the draft, I might
42:04say Kamani Vidal a dollar. And nobody cares about him at that point in the auction because everybody's worried about, you know, this big dollar player,
42:12that big dollar player. So, sometimes he'll fly right through and I'll get Kamani Vidal for a dollar.
42:18And then I then I bid on Hampton. And, you know, if I win him, now I've got my backup already, you know, I've got my
42:23handcuff in there. Whereas, if I bid on Hampton first and then I bid on Vidal later, some people will look and they'll
42:29see, oh, that's his his handcuff. He's willing to pay more for that guy. And so, they'll bid me up to like, you know,
42:34three or four dollars instead of just letting me have him for a dollar. So, >> I love I love that one where we're
42:40somebody takes a somebody takes their starter and you immediately throw out their handcuff. I think it's you always got them to have to pay for them because
42:46they freak out. You talked about that as a mistake earlier.
42:49Um, but that always seems to work. I I love doing that. People get so angry about that and maybe throws them off a
42:55little bit of their strategy. They might end up spending five bucks on a guy.
42:59>> Yeah, exactly. And at the end of the game, speed wins, too. I mean, this is where you got to always got to be paying
43:05attention in auctions.
43:06As soon as a player gets mentioned, you know, like say you you do want uh Kamani Vidal and most of the players are going to be
43:15going for one or two dollars at this point. The first person to say two dollars is going to win. Uh, you know,
43:21if somebody says Kamani Vidal for a dollar, you go, "Two!" Right now.
43:24I mean, you don't wait because the first person to say two, now somebody else has got to bid three and most people are
43:30like, "I don't really have enough money to bid three unless I really, really want this player." So, they'll let him go for two.
43:36So, if you've got enough money where you can you can kind of pick and choose your moments and you can say, "Oh, this is a
43:41player I want and I can afford to spend two on him. I'm going to do that right away." I mean, it's like it it it's it's
43:47almost like a reflex action. It's like, you know, you get smacked on the elbow and your your arm moves. That's how fast
43:54I can get the two out when somebody says a player that I want, you know, it's just right now.
43:59>> This has been This has been awesome, awesome conversation about auction stuff. Uh, what what would be your advice to somebody who who wants to
44:06maybe attempt doing an auction? Do you think like the high stakes streets going up against you and some of the guys
44:12you're competing with is the way to approach it? Um what would you like recommend like for starting up auctions?
44:19>> I would recommend getting yourself into some of the lower dollar auctions. You can get out on NFFC and they have
44:27auctions available.
44:30You know, generally 250, 350, something like that.
44:34You know, so they're a a little bit more like buying a you know, football guys or big gorilla or something like that. And
44:40these are online auctions, but they are fast auctions. So they they have a lot of the same strategy. And you'll get a
44:47sense for how the auction is going.
44:49You'll get a sense for you know, if you're using software is my is my software working right? Am I doing what
44:55I need to do?
44:57You know, you can you can look out there. There are places that have um you know, practice auctions. You know, kind of a mock auction if you will.
45:06Just don't do a slow auction because it's nothing like a fast auction. If you try to do those slow auctions, it's not going to work because with a
45:14slow auction the the whole idea is a little bit different because in those, you know, players are open for bid for
45:21like 12 hours and if nobody's bid on them in 12 hours and whoever's got the high dollar wins. But you've got a
45:28you got to keep enough resources in those available so you can bid on the players you want if you give if you have too many bids out there,
45:35then you don't have enough dollars left and all of a sudden this player starts going for a deal. So really the slow
45:40auctions and fast auctions very very different. If you're planning on doing a fast auction, then you need to practice fast auctions. If you're planning to do
45:47a slow auction, you got to practice a slow auction.
45:50>> Awesome awesome advice. Dan, before we get you out of here, give us a couple of your guys for this year. Regardless of
45:57ADP, regardless of round, who are some of your favorite players to target in drafts? Some guys who you are very bullish on for this season.
46:06>> Yeah, you know, players like you know, James Cook I think is a a really fun player.
46:13You know, you you know Theo famously I've been out on Cook the past couple years and that's cost me and this year
46:19finally the price has jumped up and what do you know Dan's back in on Cook but >> Dan didn't Dan didn't want him in the
46:25third or fourth round. He wants him when he's a first rounder.
46:28>> But I was smart enough to listen to you and you know, you you were like we need to draft James Cook here. I'm like oh
46:33yeah, yeah, I need some exposure to Cook. Let's do it.
46:37You know, and that's that's the beauty of sharing teams with other people too is it kind of forces you to think about players differently, get
46:43some different players in that you might not normally draft, you know, sometimes you just got to learn to say, you know
46:48what?
46:50We need to do it your way. We'll take this guy here and we'll take my guy later. So, but James Cook yeah, I Theo,
46:57you know, you you you've hammered on this so many times. If he ever got some more receiving work, you know, more
47:03targets he could be a absolute monster.
47:06>> RB1 overall. If he catches yeah, catches 60 passes this year, he could be RB1 overall.
47:11>> Exactly and there are signs that that might be the case, you know, Pete Carmichael is offensive coordinator there. He he has a history of throwing
47:18to running backs more often. So, you know, we'll see. I think that's a a fun player.
47:23Chase Brown I think another fun player.
47:27I just like running backs on good offenses obviously for a lot of reasons, you know, cuz they they have the opportunity to score the
47:34most touchdowns. Chase Brown is a good receiver. He's a good runner.
47:39He's fast, you know, he's got juice. All all the things you're looking for are there in Chase Brown, you know, you can
47:45see Chase Brown having a top five running back season pretty easily.
47:50>> Any any wide receivers or tight ends before we get you before we get out of here Dan?
47:55>> Yeah, uh know, Zay Flowers.
47:58Uh I love flowers. I think that uh uh the offense is going to move a little faster in Baltimore and he's clearly the
48:04number one receiver there.
48:06Jaylen Waddle, I think people are sleeping on cuz everybody's too worried about Courtland Sutton and you know, too many too many mouths to
48:14feed and all that. I think they they they got Waddle in there to to feature him. Terry McLaurin, uh you know, I I
48:21think he's in an ideal situation if he's healthy and Jayden Daniels is healthy, uh we're we're sitting in a perfect situation. But, those are those are some
48:29of the wide receivers.
48:31Uh I've I've been all in on uh you know, Brock Bowers, I think. Uh Colston Loveland for the early round tight ends.
48:39I think those guys are super super fun.
48:41And then and Dalton Kincaid is finally cheap enough where I'm actually getting some Dalton Kincaid shares. Can you believe it, Theo?
48:49>> You're you're you're facing your guys.
48:50There you go. There you go. There you go. We're back in. Uh and Dan and I, we have a Colston Loveland share uh share
48:55on a Main Event team. We might be streaming a Main Event here on this channel at some point. Uh and make sure
49:00you check out everything Dan is putting out. Uh check him out at OverHypeSleeper on X uh without the E on on over. It's
49:08OVRHypeSleeper.
49:10>> Uh and then make sure you O- O- OVR.
49:12OVR.
49:14OverHypeSleeper dropped the final E from sleeper. So, S L E E P R.
49:19>> There you go. I've I've been following Dan for so long, but I I don't know where that missing E is. But,
49:23OverHypeSleeper over on X. And then make sure you're checking out Fantasy Empire where you saw Nelson, you saw Dan, they're podcasting together. And then
49:31check out the Dominator. That's Dan's show. And stick with us here at RotoWire. We're going to have shows like this all off season long. We're going to
49:39help you crush your leagues this season.