Top 10 Fantasy Football Bounceback Candidates (2026)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
48 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 4, 2026
Published
Tue, August 4, 2026
37
Player insights
37
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownBaker MayfieldBreece HallBrian Thomas Jr.Bucky IrvingChigoziem OkonkwoChris GodwinChris OlaveChristian WatsonColston LovelandDallas GoedertDrake MayeEmeka EgbukaGarrett Wilson
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveProjection40:11
Ron Tons praises AJ Brown's per-route efficiency, stating that Brown is a player he will 'tell his grandchildren about' due to his elite performance levels.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
PositiveProjection32:40
Ron Tons is optimistic about Baker Mayfield bouncing back as part of an improved Tampa Bay offensive environment.
Insight pageBreece Hall
PositiveValue4:47
Ron Tons views Breece Hall as a strong third-round value in full PPR formats, citing his receiving upside and explosive playmaking ability. Hall ranked fourth in explosive run rate and 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt last year. Tons notes the Jets' offensive line is significantly improved and the team faces the fifth-easiest schedule, with the offense expected to reach league-average stability under Geno Smith.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
PositiveValue21:42
Brian Thomas Jr. is a value pick with strong OTA buzz, allowing drafters to acquire him significantly cheaper than last year. While there are concerns about his role in a murky Jacksonville receiver room—specifically whether he will be the odd man out in two-receiver sets or relegated to field-stretching routes—Ron Tons remains optimistic about the Jacksonville offense and Thomas's rookie-year performance (87 catches, 10 touchdowns). He is currently drafted as WR31 on Underdog.
Insight pageBucky Irving
NegativeValue31:37
Ron Tons is targeting Bucky Irving at his current RB25 ADP, noting that while he was a fade at RB15, the price correction makes him a viable buy. He compares Irving's potential to James Cook, citing the Tampa Bay offense's health, an elite offensive line, and Irving's efficiency and pass-catching upside, despite concerns regarding target competition from Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker.
Insight pageChigoziem Okonkwo
PositiveValue37:10
Ron Tons prefers Chigoziem Okonkwo and Kyle Pitts over Tucker Kraft in tight end premium formats, viewing them as better values given the current ADP discrepancy.
Insight pageChris Godwin
NegativeValue16:52
Chris Godwin is cited by Ron Tons as a historical benchmark for wide receivers drafted in the fourth-round range who have the potential to win fantasy leagues.
Insight pageChris Olave
NegativeProjection3:56
Ron Tons uses Chris Olave's 2025 season as a benchmark for potential WR1 outcomes in mediocre offenses, noting that Olave finished as a backend WR1 despite the team's offensive struggles.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveValue39:03
Ron Tons has been drafting Christian Watson heavily across all formats, viewing him as the primary Green Bay pass catcher with a clear path to production this season.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveValue30:45
Ron Tons is 'all over' Colston Loveland in current drafts, identifying him as a preferred upside swing option in the same draft range as Jaylen Waddle and Luther Burden III.
Insight pageDallas Goedert
PositiveValue39:40
Ron Tons expresses confusion regarding Dallas Goedert's TE15 ADP, labeling him a 'failsafe' option in redraft leagues who provides spike weeks in best ball. While Ron is personally below market on him, he acknowledges Goedert's value as a late-round tight end, noting his ADP is currently in line with Jake Ferguson, Mark Andrews, and Travis Kelce. Ron also references the historical context of Goedert's early career, noting that fantasy managers were previously waiting for Zach Ertz to leave Philadelphia to unlock Goedert's potential.
Insight pageDrake Maye
NegativeValue30:23
Ron Tons suggests drafting Drake Maye as a stack partner for AJ Brown when he misses out on his preferred tier of quarterbacks.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
NegativeValue10:11
Ron Tons prefers Emeka Egbuka over Malik Nabers in high-stakes formats like the NFFC 350 due to Nabers' injury risk. Tons also ranks Egbuka ahead of Ladd McConkey in head-to-head draft tiers, stating there is no question about the preference.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
PositiveValue0:24
Ron Tons is all-in on Garrett Wilson at his current WR20 ADP, identifying him as a primary target-earner who maintained a 29.4% target share and led the league in first-read target rate during a five-week span last year. Tons argues that Geno Smith provides more stability than previous Jets quarterbacks, and Wilson's role as a first-read target aligns with Smith's tendencies. Tons ranks Wilson ahead of Ladd McConkey, placing him in a high-upside draft pocket that has historically produced league-winning wide receivers, and suggests Wilson could mirror Chris Olave's 2025 season as a backend WR1 even in a mediocre offense.
Insight pageJake Ferguson
NegativeValue40:29
Ron compares Dallas Goedert's ADP to that of Jake Ferguson, Mark Andrews, and Travis Kelce, placing them in a similar tier.
Insight pageJakobi Meyers
NegativeRole24:39
Jakobi Meyers is a potential threat to the fantasy value of other Jacksonville receivers if he secures a larger-than-anticipated role. The team heavily utilized him after trading for him last year and subsequently signing him to a contract.
Insight pageJaxson Dart
PositiveProjection20:21
Jaxson Dart is trending up in rankings due to his rushing upside and an improved supporting cast, as he is no longer limited to throwing only to Darius Slayton and Malachi Fields.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveBreakout27:43
Ron Tons is betting heavily on Jayden Daniels for a massive bounceback season, projecting him to lead all quarterbacks in rushing production. Tons prefers Daniels over Lamar Jackson due to the significant ADP discount and recommends stacking him with Terry McLaurin to capitalize on their correlation.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveValue16:32
Ron Tons ranks Jaylen Waddle ahead of Ladd McConkey, projecting Waddle to be the focal point of the offense. Waddle is also preferred over Terry McLaurin as an upside swing in the same draft range, and is currently ranked one spot ahead of McConkey in draft rankings.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveValue23:32
Josh Allen is considered a massive value in Underdog drafts as other quarterbacks rise in ADP; he remains a high-value pick in the second or third round of traditional home leagues and is viewed as being in a tier of his own at the position.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveBreakout18:01
Justin Jefferson is a top bounceback candidate at his 2.02 ADP. Ron Tons notes that Jefferson has historically paid off whenever he has had even league-average quarterback play. Tons recommends pairing Jefferson with Saquon Barkley in drafts.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
PositiveValue37:10
Ron Tons prefers Kyle Pitts and Chigoziem Okonkwo over Tucker Kraft in tight end premium formats, viewing them as better values given the current ADP discrepancy.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
NegativeValue16:16
Ladd McConkey is a polarizing fourth-round asset. While he possesses elite route-running metrics (88th percentile vs. man, 89th vs. zone, 90th vs. press), there are concerns regarding potential low offensive volume under Mike McDaniel and the possibility of Keenan Allen returning. Ron Tons prefers other wide receivers like Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, and Emeka Egbuka over McConkey in head-to-head draft rankings.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeValue26:58
Ron Tons identifies Lamar Jackson as his most drafted quarterback on Underdog, citing the flexibility to draft two quarterbacks later and his ability to stack with Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. However, Tons also expresses skepticism regarding Jackson's value as the consensus QB2, citing concerns over his regression in rushing production and attempts, and the high opportunity cost compared to later-round options.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveValue30:45
The source identifies Luther Burden III as an upside swing option in the same draft tier as Terry McLaurin, preferring him over McLaurin. Ron Tons also expresses high intrigue regarding his potential performance, noting he is the player whose final season stats he would most want to know.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeValue6:49
Malik Nabers is a high-volume target hog with elite historical production, ranking behind only Odell Beckham Jr., Ja'Marr Chase, Randy Moss, and Justin Jefferson in PPR points through his first 19 games. Despite this, Ron Tons remains hesitant to draft him at his current third-round ADP due to injury uncertainty, ranking him 28th overall—behind Breece Hall and Trey McBride, but ahead of DeVonta Smith, Zay Flowers, and Chris Olave. Tons highlights Nabers' ability to sustain a 30%+ target share.
Insight pageMark Andrews
NegativeValue40:29
Ron compares Dallas Goedert's ADP to that of Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, and Jake Ferguson, placing them in a similar tier.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveBreakout23:06
Ron Tons is becoming increasingly optimistic about Marvin Harrison Jr., noting that he is due for a bounceback season.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveUsage22:10
Parker Washington is emerging as a target of interest in the Jacksonville wide receiver room, with potential for significant underneath usage alongside Jakobi Meyers.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
PositiveValue28:58
Patrick Mahomes is identified as a potential late-round value, with Ron Tons reporting instances of him falling as far as the 14th round in recent drafts.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
NegativeValue37:23
Ron Tons disagrees with the current Underdog ADP valuation that places Tucker Kraft a mini-tier ahead of Sam LaPorta.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveValue19:56
Ron Tons recommends pairing Saquon Barkley with Justin Jefferson in drafts, noting he successfully executed this build in an FFPC draft.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveDepth Chart31:16
Ron Tons speculates that if Stefon Diggs were to sign with Washington, it would significantly improve the fantasy outlook for the team's pass catchers.
Insight pageTee Higgins
PositiveValue16:32
Tee Higgins is ranked ahead of Ladd McConkey in current draft tiers due to his proven track record in his current offense.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
PositiveValue29:26
Ron Tons views Terry McLaurin as a strong bounceback candidate and an ideal stack partner for Jayden Daniels. While he expects both to bounce back in a major way, he notes that McLaurin's current Underdog ranking makes him difficult to draft over other upside options.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
NegativeValue40:29
Ron compares Dallas Goedert's ADP to that of Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Jake Ferguson, placing them in a similar tier.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveInjury36:57
Tucker Kraft is currently on the PUP list, though reports suggest he will be ready for Week 1. Ron Tons is skeptical of Kraft's ability to repeat his 2023 efficiency, noting that his production relied on unsustainable metrics like a 4.8-yard average depth of target and 15.6 yards per reception. Coming off an ACL injury, Ron believes betting on a bounce-back is difficult, especially given his current Underdog ADP which places him a tier ahead of Kyle Pitts, Chigoziem Okonkwo, and Sam LaPorta.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:05Breaking down 2026 fantasy football bounceback candidates and a couple players coming off of major injuries.
0:12Theo Griminger, Rotto Wire, lead fantasy football analyst. Joined today by Ron Stewart. My first time potting with Ron.
0:18Tons of respect for what you've done out in the space. Ron, we got to talk about it though. When we talk about bounceback
0:24candidates, Garrett Wilson is not the first player to come to mind, but he's one of the more important players based on where his ADP is. We're seeing Wilson
0:33at wide receiver 20, a significant discount over what we've seen in previous years. He was a wide receiver one through like the first five weeks of
0:40the year last year before he got banged up. Are you in or out on Garrett Wilson at cost this year with Gino Smith behind
0:48center on the Jets?
0:50>> I'm all the way in. Uh, and I've been getting killed for this. Uh, I'm a Jets fan. I'm a Jersey boy. Uh, but I was out
0:58on Garrett Wilson last year and like you mentioned, he was started so hot I was sweating. I was sweating the fade where
1:02it was like it felt so obvious Justin Fields isn't going to throw it to Garrett Wilson and he somehow found a
1:08way. Now, he definitely ran hot on touchdown luck, but it also just goes to show how much of a target hog he really
1:14is. Last year over that fiveweek span, he was behind only Puka and JSN with a 29.4% target share. He had a 2.1 yards
1:22per run despite awful quarterback play from Justin Fields and he led the league over that span in first read target rate. I think that's a great kind of
1:31microcosm of what his career has been to this point. He is a target earner first and foremost. The efficiency has been a
1:36little bit rough just given the quarterback play. And I'm not here to sell you that the efficiency is going to be awesome with Gino Smith. But I think
1:43especially given the target tree at the top, given the fact that last year they were historically bad in terms of just
1:50passing volume, I think that there was a stat up there that they were one of like the bottom five teams over the last five
1:56or 10 years in terms of just overall passing yards, right? We're talking games with Brady Cook. We're talking games without Garrett Wilson. This year
2:03they should be more league average with Gino Smith. And yes, they bring in more talent, but I think that that just kind
2:08of lends itself to moving the chains more when those first read targets are going away from Garrett Wilson. They're going towards a Kenyan Sadi, an Omar
2:15Cooper, a Adai Mitchell, Bree Hall, this offensive line is a lot better. Uh, so if we're talking about him being a
2:21target hog of having like a 30% plus target share upside in an offense with reasonable volume in an offense where you can expect Gino Smith to maybe be
2:29bottom half of the league in terms of passing efficiency, but still that should be enough where you're getting him as like a low-end wide receiver too.
2:36He could very much be kind of like what Chris Ave was last year where it wasn't a fun offense. It was once Chuck came
2:42in, but it was still, you know, backend wide receiver one, but a pretty big hit for where you were drafting him. Uh, so
2:48I'm I'm really liking him and I think there's also something to be said about him being a the first read on a lot of
2:53plays and that Gino Smith is kind of a one- read guy. Uh, not so much a processor, but more of a I'm just going
2:59to air this ball out to whoever's the first read. I think that that plays to Garrett Wilson's strengths.
3:05>> I you make such a great bull case for Garrett Wilson and he's sort of just sitting there where it's almost like
3:10Garrett Wilson's a structural pick this year rather than an edge pick. And we're getting this discount where you're getting Garrett Wilson in like the
3:17fourth round. I remember years ago heading into his second year as a pro.
3:22He was being drafted at the one-two turn when we got to like the Vegas drafts for NFC and FFPC. So, this is really the
3:29lowest he's gone in ADP in a while.
3:32We're getting the quote unquote bad team discount, but I don't know. I like multiple Jets this year. I'm not a not
3:38necessarily a bounceback guy, but uh definitely an ADP discount guy. your quick thoughts on Bree Hall at cost right now. I've been a little bit on an
3:47island where I say I like Bree Hall and people look at it like, "Okay, Theo, I get it. He's a structural pick. You're
3:53getting this uh clear RB1 with expected volume and you're getting him in the third round." But I think he could end
3:59up being an edge pick as well. Are you there with Hall?
4:03>> Yeah, and I'm getting killed for it, too. Like I I told you about Garrett Wilson. I I hate uh I never want to be
4:09accused of being a homer. And last year, I was out on both jets. I thought that this whole thing was going to be
4:13terrible. Uh but this year it makes a lot of sense. Like I just think I'm again I'm not saying that Gino Smith is
4:18going to be amazing. I'm just saying I think there's going to be a little more stability. I think that we're at least
4:22going to get NFL play volume, right?
4:25We're not going to get Zack Wilson like terrible passing efficiency. We're not going to get the Justin Fields Brady Cook uh under 30 pass attempts per game.
4:33I think we're going to get a fine offense here. Also, if you look at the look aheadlines in terms of the Vegas
4:38schedule, the Jets have the fifth easiest schedule this year. It shouldn't be a uh, you know, a appointment to the dentist watching this team. It should at
4:47least be an NFL offense. And Bree Hall, he has everything we're looking for.
4:51We're getting a discount here, especially in full PPR. This is somebody that after the ACL tear, we were all, is he going to be back to himself? Last
4:59year, he looked like himself. He was fourth in explosive run rate, 10th of M tackles, forced per attempt. And when we're looking for receiving upside, he
5:06probably has the clearest case after the top two rounds and you kind of get into the spot like you said structural where
5:12especially if you take a Jamar Chase Puka JSN, you come back around and it feels like that whole tier gets wiped
5:17out, right? You're talking like from Amarian Hampton through Devon Achan through Derk Henry. Uh maybe in that second round you go for a Brock Bowers,
5:26whatever. You come back around in the third and you're like, I need a running back. And Bree Hall stares you in the
5:29face. And I don't think that it's a terrible pick. Uh he's hit 76 receptions before, 57 receptions before. I think in
5:36this offense with Gino Smith, we could just see a lot of checkdowns. We could see Bree Hall in the passing game. Uh
5:41he's explosive. The offensive line is really coming into form with Fashanu and Meu and people are really uh one of the
5:47more unsung heroes in my eyes is Joe Titman. They just extended him this interior offensive lineman. He's like this 66 athlete out of Wisconsin. He's
5:54awesome, too. So, I just think that this offense can be in the low 20s in terms of yards and points and uh be decent in
6:02terms of play volume and then all of a sudden uh a couple of these guys, especially in full PPR, can beat
6:07expectation. Yeah. And and uh I think Bree Hall, like you bring up the receiving upside, if he ends up getting some of those numbers, it doesn't even
6:16have to be the like peak 2023 season for him or anything like that. If we go just a little bit lower bar and they actually
6:22use him as a consistent weapon out of the back field, I think he could return a lot of value this year. And it also
6:28feels like depending on what you think of guys like Kairen Williams, Javvante Williams, it's like the the last running back where it feels like you have this
6:37massive edge before you get into the sort of the old school dead zone. Bruce Hall really it's just stay healthy and I
6:44think he's going to end up having a really good return this year. Let's uh you're you're in Jersey, I'm on Long
6:49Island. Let's stay in the in the tri-state. Let's go with Malik Neighbors. And this is just the ultimate one to talk about. Not sure when our
6:56show is going to air, but we have had a recent ADP uptick where Neighbors was going into like deep deep deep ranges.
7:05In NFC, we saw him dip into like the fifth round. In FFPC, we saw him dip into like the fourth round. And now he's
7:12sort of all the way back back up into the third round. on underdog. We've seen uh Malik Neighbors at wide receiver 13,
7:19so he's starting to trend back up again.
7:21People are like playing catch-up, especially high volume people. Are you all the way back in on Malik Neighbors here, or do you worry that they have
7:29this injury optimism where we've seen the couple of really big plays at camp, looks absolutely tremendous, but it could be a rug pull where he does still
7:38sit out maybe a couple games to get him fully healthy. Where are we at on this one? I mean, right now it looks like
7:43week one, Malik Neighbors, but I in the back of my mind I'm like, could this be week four? Could this be week three?
7:51Just, hey guys, he's not quite ready yet. We want to get him to 100%.
7:55He's so tricky. Uh, I'll be honest, I haven't been drafting enough of him looking on underdog 2.2%. And I say not
8:04enough because that's clearly going to look bad in terms of the CLV. Like he like I will say a nice edge as I'm doing
8:10all these slow drafts. I I entered my last for the season last night because that's a whole other thing. But they'll
8:15start shortening the clocks on you once September comes around. So it really if you're going to get in slow drafts, it
8:19has to be like right now. Um so I did have a couple of them, you know, where I'm like it's 306 and Neighbors is
8:25sitting there. I'm like, "All right, I'll I'll I'll take a neighbors here."
8:28But he was going, you know, fourth round for a little bit there. It's just so tough with the injury stuff, especially
8:33when we're talking I I guess in in baseball you can just say, "Well, as long as he's there for the the home
8:38stretch, it really doesn't matter." Uh, but then once you start going over to manage, it's like, you know, we need wins early season. We need points early
8:45season. He's so tough because he's such a good player. He has the most PPR points through 19 games behind only OBJ,
8:52Chase, Randy Moss, and Justin Jefferson.
8:54Like, that's the group of guys you want to be with every time. Uh, that's a trajectory he's been on. He's a target
8:59hog. I I think even in PPR, if he doesn't find the efficiency, he he just just gets so many targets peppered over
9:05and over again, I think that he'll still pay off there. Uh, and I find myself I moved him so I had him in a spot where
9:11like was essentially just like moved him to a spot in my rankings where I was just never going to get him. I've since
9:16moved him to 28. So I now have him behind we just talked about Bree. I have him behind Bree, Trey McBride, and then
9:21he's right there ahead of Devonte Smith, Zay Flowers, Chris Ave.
9:25It's tough. I I haven't I I don't know that I've hopped in a draft and pays that price. Like we're talking this
9:30happened two days ago. We see the video.
9:32It it goes from he's at the softball game and it's like my god, like is he ever going to be the same player? And
9:36now we see this clip and it's like he's he's all the way back. Like that's Malik Neighbors. So the the injury stuff is so
9:41tricky, especially when you start to go through like, you know, you can't be taking, you know, you can't be like throwing Romeo Dobs in your flex spot
9:47because you're waiting on neighbors to come back. So it it becomes such a tough spot like in terms of am I in or out on
9:53him bouncing back? Like to me it's so iffy. It it's how how does my team look?
9:58How am I feeling that day? But I I have him as like a mid3 right now. Uh, but again, I haven't had the I haven't had
10:04to step up to the clock and look at him at like the 305 and be like, am I going to take this in like a a big money
10:10draft, you know?
10:11>> Yeah, I took a Mecha Ibuka ahead of him in an NFC 350 yesterday. Um, and I feel like that's still the correct move, but
10:21maybe 3 weeks from now, we're like, Theo, what are you doing? Like, Malik Neighbors is going to play week one. And
10:25it's like just a reminder uh cuz it's recency bias with with neighbors because last year he burned a ton of people with
10:32getting injured obviously. Uh 109 catches, 1,200 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns and he was number one among all wide receivers in target
10:42share, first read rate. He was right at the very like towards the very top in area share. It was an absolutely
10:49remarkable season on the analytic side and in production and considering he was like a 21-year-old rookie at the time.
10:56So, uh this could be like the great equalizer for early drafters. Maybe we see like a couple of overall winners were the guys that got him in the fifth
11:05round or people were playing it correctly and maybe these people that are going to steam him into round two right now. Uh there's really a range of
11:12upsides w range of outcomes and an upside outcome with neighbors that's scary but it's also the downside. Your vibes with this offense overall with
11:22Jackson Dart, Isaiah likely certainly Cam Scataboo Tracy but the Matt Naggie sort of hanging over their heads.
11:30>> Yeah, I'm I'm cautiously optimistic. I I think we sometimes get caught up in uh the play caller and Greg Roman and
11:39everything. Like I remember Greg Roman went to the Ravens and then everyone's like, "Oh my god." Like of course they have Lamar Jackson, but it it's also
11:45just sobering to know on one hand I had Ryan Heath on my channel. We talked about the new play callers and it's
11:50always a great thing to look at, right?
11:52Like Clint Kubak with the Seahawks last year was a huge win. You get all these things, but you also sometimes get like
11:57good players are going to produce. I'm not drafting all Giants a ton. I do think that Harbaugh is a good coach. I
12:02think there's like a good ecosystem that they're kind of setting up here. Uh, you know, they invested in the offensive line.
12:09I'm not entirely crazy about any of these guys, but I'm also not putting them in the bucket of like uh the
12:15Dolphins and the Browns of like terrible offenses. I think their Vegas look ahead lines aren't terrible. They're like in like the range of maybe like 20th in
12:21terms of implied points. And that's kind of how I'm playing it. I think it'll be a fine offense. I think Dart gets there
12:26by the rushing, so doesn't really matter a ton. And I think Neighbors actually kind of led me to move up Dart a few
12:30spots of like, all right, he's not throwing to only Darius Sllayton and like Malachi Fields uh in that wide receiver room.
12:37>> Yeah, I've I've moved uh Dart up a little bit as well and Neighbors I certainly had a huge correction in my
12:43rankings. Uh and you can get my rankings over at rotoire.com.
12:47Uh use the code Theo and get 20% off. If you love the videos and contents like this, you're going to love what we have
12:53over at Rotoire. I'm trying to update my rankings on a daily basis, plus strategy articles, inseason waiverwire content for especially for high stakes. Um, and
13:03you're not just getting it from me, you're getting from Ian Hardit and all of our great content creators. Make sure you check out rotoire.com.
13:10Let's keep the conversation going at the wide receiver position. And this has been sort sort of a polarizing player. I know you mentioned Ryan Heath. Ryan
13:18Heath is all over Lad Mankey. Uh, where are you at when it comes to Maki? He was one of the worst picks you could have
13:25made last year. And when you talk about opportunity cost, Makanki went side by side with Jackson Smith and Jigba in a
13:33lot of drafts. So you're talking about that two three turn area where drafters could have drafted a league winner or a
13:40player that had like sunken bad win rates in Lad Mcconi. Certainly the market is back in on him where he gets
13:47the Mike McDaniel bump and people are like everything's going to be fine.
13:52Where are you at when it comes to Makakei?
13:55>> I like Lad. I'm like lukewarm on Lad sadly. I wish I had like a hot take. I I have I've drafted him exactly eight% of
14:01the time on underdog. He He's just now drifted up to this range where you're taking him. There's a Bua there who I
14:08like more. T. Higgins who I like more just in that offense. We've seen him do it. And then even like he goes back
14:12toback with Josh Allen, which is it's a whole another uh decision, you know, talking point that I think Josh Allen in
14:18underdog is like a massive value right now just given how much the other quarterbacks have risen because of that.
14:24But it is pretty simple of like I guess taking the long view where he was awesome as a rookie last year. It wasn't
14:31ideal. He started splitting the reps with Keenan Allen, then the offensive line just completely craters. And you could look at like the offon splits of
14:37the EPA per play between uh Joe Alt being healthy and not. They were like a top five offense with Joel, without him
14:42they were like 26. So now you get him healthy, you get Rashan Slater healthy, McDaniel in the mix. My big concern
14:49would just be simply if they bring back Keenan Allen or I think with McDaniel it's going to be fun. It's going to be
14:56efficient on a perplay basis, but there is some almost like Packers downside where this could be a low volume offense because when you do all the the fun
15:04window dressing and you get the guys in motion and everything, the clock's ticking on you. You know what I mean?
15:08and you're you're now snapping the ball with like two seconds left. And it's why a lot of those Dolphins teams, yes, they
15:13had Tyreek and all these playmakers, so they were putting up a ton of points, but their like plays per game and play
15:18volume was a little bit lower. So that could squeeze out a lad or that could squeeze out an Amarian Hampton or a
15:23Quentyn Johnston. Like I it it's tough because I want to just close my eyes and just draft all Chargers and be like,
15:28"All right, Herbert's gonna win the MVP.
15:30This is McDaniel coming in here, honeymoon phase." Uh but I also see the downside. But when you kind of uh put
15:36Lad in isolation on reception perception, he had an 88th percentile win rate versus man, 89th for his zone, 90th for his press, I think he's a good
15:43receiver. And if he does get this role we're hoping for in this offense, he could be an absolute monster. The year
15:49three breakout was in vogue last year with a guy like JSN. I'm not calling for this year's JSN, but uh it's clear I
15:56want to be drafting the wide receivers in this range, and I'll say Lad is one of the targets there.
16:00>> Yeah, I'm with you. I've taken him structurally and it's almost like it's I I don't want to use the word like
16:05begrudgingly, but when you're in there's certain drafts you're in where he's like the value staring you right in the face.
16:13Head-to-head ADP.
16:14>> Are you on Lad Makanki or Jaylen Wadd?
16:19>> I got Waddle one spot ahead.
16:21>> So that's me too. And I can get Wadd a little bit later. And you already sort of made the bullcase for Garrett Wilson.
16:26So I'm assuming Garrett Wilson easily ahead of Lad for you. Yeah, that that's what I'm looking at here. Like I have I
16:32have Waddle ahead, Wilson ahead, T.
16:33Higgins ahead, Ibuka ahead. So So you're right. He's like at the end of this tier. Uh but it's like this does feel
16:39like the pocket like right here, this like fourth round pocket. Uh when we kind of look back over the years when
16:44there, you know, like I >> I guess Jay said it was more like early third last year, but you get what I'm
16:48saying? Like this is in years past, whether that was uh like year all the way back to like year three, Chris
16:53Godwin, this has been the range where a couple of these guys are going to win leagues.
16:57>> Yeah. I I think that it's maybe the strongest that we've seen from like the early to mid wide receiver 2 range. A
17:05lot of those guys could have like exceptional win rates, but when we get to the end of the season, there's going
17:10to be one or two guys that are way way better than the others. And it's just I don't know if it's going to be lad for
17:15me. So, let us know in the comments what you think of Lad Maki. I know there's some people making him a foundational
17:20piece of all their draft builds. I do agree with you. the Chargers offense is could maybe lead the NFL in scoring this
17:27year. Um, and I don't want to be without Lad, but I also when it's like head-to-head with Igbuka, it's no question I agree with you. I think Wadd
17:37it a lot of the same arguments for for Lad can be made for for Wadd. Um, and I look at like the overall offense in
17:44Denver. Wadd being the focal point of the entire offense, I think is going to be the outcome, whereas Lad, you're dealing with Omar Hampton and all these
17:51other uh guys. So really an interesting one. We haven't talked about maybe the number one bounceback candidate and certainly probably the bounceback
18:01candidate for most is Justin Jefferson.
18:03Uh talk about a bad draft pick. Last year Jefferson completely cratered. We were so used to seeing Justin Jefferson challenging for wide receiver one
18:13overall. Was almost completely unusable over the second half of the season last year and ended up averaging fewer than 12 points per game. Just a catastrophic
18:23pick. But it's Justin Jefferson and now we have a a chance for a redo season. Is it going to be a Justin Jefferson
18:31revenge tour where he reminds everybody who he was in most seasons of his career or are you looking elsewhere when you're
18:39in that one two area?
18:42I'm on Jefferson. Uh I I just think I have to be when we sort of zoom out and think about what his career looks like.
18:50This is somebody that over a 17game pace with Jeff uh JJ McCarthy. This is essentially a 10ame sample, but if you
18:57extrapolate 17 games with JJ McCarthy, he was on a pace of 75 catches, 913 yards, and three touchdowns, which is absurd to say cuz he has 84 games of
19:06playing with anybody else at quarterback, whether that is Braz, Josh Dos, of course, most of it's like Kurt Cousins, uh, and those players, but an
19:1484 game sample, the rest of his career, 108 receptions, 1600 yards, eight touchdowns across that entire sample before last year. Uh I I love these
19:23stats of like, you know, through 80 career games who has the most PPR points and Jefferson was the leader of that
19:29until last year and it completely created his uh full seasonl long outlook. Uh but I just have such a tough time essentially whenever he's had
19:38anybody that just wasn't dead last in quarterback play, he's paid off. And now you're starting to get these teams where, you know, I'm tuning into some of
19:46these streams where I know uh you I know the ship chasing guys will do these FFPC streams and I start to see like
19:51Jefferson at the 202 and you can pair him with one of those backend running backs and it's like that is very like
19:56you can start a draft Saquon Justin Jefferson this year. Uh >> I actually did a I did a Saquon Justin Jefferson draft today in an FFPC 350
20:06with Ian Hardit. So you're absolutely right about that. Yeah. So, it's like Justin Jefferson is Justin Jefferson.
20:12And I don't think we need to get like too like contextualized in the in the conversation. It's a truly elite player
20:18who's getting beat up for last year.
20:20Here's another narrative going around, Ron, where Kyler Murray can't support wide receiver production cuz he's only done it with DeAndre Hopkins. Shouldn't
20:29we give a benefit of the doubt to how highly targeted he made Trey McBride as his first read with Jefferson? Like
20:36isn't that a net positive for Jefferson that Kyler was like force-feeding his number one target in Arizona, albeit a tight end?
20:44>> I agree. Uh like Kyler, I'm not going to say that he is the pinnacle of quarterback play, but again like all
20:49we're looking for is just a guy. We're looking for league average quarterback play. I trust Kevin Oonnell. This is the same guy. I think it it's honestly says
20:55more about how bad a J McCarthy is, but he he Frankenstein Josh Dobs off the street to, you know, get the play in the
21:02huddle and like tell him where to throw the ball. It's one of the more, I think, crazy things we've ever seen. And this
21:06team, even though it had a Jim McCarthy last year, it's a testament to that because they still had, I think they
21:10picked like 15th overall. Like, these guys can't get a top 10 pick because they're too good. Uh, so I just think
21:15with Kyler Murray, I'm a Kyler Murray Murray apologist. I'm not going to say that he's going to win an MVP. Uh, but I
21:20do think that he can be a fine quarterback in this offense.
21:24>> We talk about bounceback candidates and we mentioned Lad Mac, we mentioned Malik Neighbors. Last year was like sort of a
21:32catastrophic year to buy the year 2 wide receivers, but with Lad McConi, everybody's sort of like things will be all right. He's back in round four.
21:42Brian Thomas Jr., who was better than Lad as a rookie, is now at wide receiver 31. So on underdog wide receiver 31, if
21:50you're drafting in FFPC, that's somewhere in the sixth or seventh round.
21:55Uh about the sixth round for NFC. So BTJ, we go back to his rookie season, 87 catches, nearly 1300 receiving yards, 10
22:03catches, 10 touchdown catches, and people were drafting him at the one-two turn last year. Where are you at on BTJ?
22:10Is he a screaming value, or are you gravitating towards guys like Parker Washington in this Jacksonville wide receiver room? I wish I was more in. I I
22:19was in love with Brian Thomas last year.
22:21I remember I had a FPC draft that I was stoked about. I got McCaffrey at like 106 and then BTJ came all the way back
22:27to me and I was like screaming and yelling and you know that ADP value only gets you so far. These players actually
22:33have to pay off. Uh I have him at 7.1% of the time. I think in full PPR once I get in these FPC streets I might like
22:39him more. Right. The wide receivers will fall a little bit because you get into this range especially on underdog where it is right after Jadarian Price who I
22:46love in a half PPR at pick 62. Uh and then he's in that range of uh these quarterbacks. So sometimes, you know, if
22:53I take an AJ Brown or I take a Jamar Chase, I'm taking Joe Burrow there or I'm taking Drake May there. So he's just
22:58kind of slipped my mind. I try to pepper him in especially in the best ball format. I think that that really plays
23:02to his strengths. But you make a good point. There's like a lot of good receivers that I I sort of just mix in
23:06here. Whether it's Odun, whether it's Parker Washington, I've really been starting to come around on Marvin Harrison, as much as I uh hate to kind
23:13of admit that, but Marvin Harrison uh I think is due for a bounce back. Brian Thomas. It's just I I think the issue
23:18with him is with Marv, especially with uh Care. I know these guys are going to run routes. Brian Thomas, sure he's going to run routes, but it's
23:26just a little bit murky between is he just going to kind of do these breather field stretching routes, open up Parker
23:32Washington and Jacob Myers underneath?
23:34Is is he the odd man out in two wide receiver sets? Do they opt for Jacobe and Parker Washington and then maybe
23:39kick Brian Thomas out in three wide receiver sets? It just gets tough where and I last year I kind of shrugged it
23:45off with like the oh these M. Jones splits right where like M. Jones comes in and then that was when Brian Thomas
23:49really took off as a rookie. There might be something there where like him and Trevor Lawrence aren't on the same page.
23:54Liam Cohen comes in and now like it kind of sucks to say but these new play callers, they don't have to honor what
23:59you did before them, right? Like Liam Cohen, I'm sure thinks his rookie year statline is cool, but he wasn't on the s
24:04sideline drawing up those plays. So it's not all that relevant to him what Brian Thomas did as a rookie. So, I'm like I'm
24:11a bigger in real life fan of Brian Thomas than I am uh like putting my money in drafting him where he's going
24:16on underdog.
24:17>> Yeah, I I get it. I've been mixing in Brian Thomas. I I think he's a fun pick just as a like when he falls to round
24:24seven. I think he's he's really interesting there. It's really all the Jaguars I think are priced right to return some value. I like Bashel Tutin a
24:32lot. I think Washington and Thomas, you could sort of take the I want access to both. The player that could sort of ruin
24:39things would be if Jacobe Myers has a larger than anticipated role and larger by like the fantasy community. I think there's a ton of hype with Parker
24:46Washington. There was a ton of like really strong OTAA buzz with BTJ, but Meyers was heavily used. They traded for him last year. They gave him a contract.
24:55Uh so he's an interesting one. But I do want access to this Jacksonville offense. And I'm able to get Brian Thomas so much cheaper than last year. I
25:03just can't keep like gravitating towards how good he was as a rookie. Could we see the 2026 season look like somewhere
25:11between 2024 and 2025? And if so, BTJ returns value. You've been crushing it, Ron. This is the first time we potted
25:18together, but I've followed you for years here. Uh your YouTube channel is awesome. You do a ton of amazing baseball content. Let everybody know
25:25sort of what you have planned in the month of August.
25:28>> I appreciate it. Uh just going to be uh it's honestly a big undertaking. I'm going to be streaming every day from
25:34August 1st through week one kickoff.
25:36I've been doing it the last few summers here. So, that's going to be fun. I'll be ripping underdog drafts. I'll be
25:40doing the FFPC's, the NFC's, all of that live in front of the audience. It's always uh I'm sure you love the draft
25:45streams as well where, you know, you hop on and everyone's saying, "Oh, you're an idiot. Like, you got to take this player
25:49at this pick." And it's just kind of fun. Uh so, you'll have that and then I'll just be doing reddraft videos like
25:53kind of similar to this, just talking about bounceback players, some draft strategy, all that over at the Ron Stewart YouTube channel. Uh, and then
25:59I'll be draft I'll be dropping a big uh draft guide product for the channel, which is exciting because I've been on
26:05Patreon previously. I'm still there, but uh this is kind of like my first time doing a uh digital product. Just like
26:10just a simple draft guide, but you know, like it has my notes, all of that cool stuff. Uh very excited for this season.
26:16>> And how can people access that uh that that draft guide?
26:20>> Uh that'll be on the basement.com. I don't know if it'll be live when this video is out, but it will be live uh
26:25very shortly. But definitely just check out Ron Stewart on YouTube and then everything, you know, it's it's all in my descriptions and all that.
26:30>> Yeah, highly recommend you check out Ron's work. It's really really good stuff. Let's keep this conversation going. We sort of went through wide
26:36receivers. You briefly mentioned Marvin Harrison Jr. We could have talked about him, but I think it's very important that we talk about quarterback cuz you
26:43mentioned Josh Allen and Josh Allen's sort of in a tier of his own. That's like a whole show to talk about like
26:49should Josh Allen be your foundational quarterback strategy piece or should you dive into that next tier? And it's really the largest gap we've seen
26:58between QB1 and QB2. And for most people, Lamar Jackson is ranked as their QB2. And it's easy to see why. We have a
27:08large sample size of Lamar Jackson just crushing it in fantasy. But this year, new offensive coordinator. And last year, and I get it, he was banged up
27:17before people say it in the comments, he was banged up, but the rushing production and rush attempts both regressed to levels we're not used to
27:24seeing with Lamar Jackson. Are you in or out on him having a massive bounceback year and returning value at the QB2
27:32position?
27:34I I think I have to be. I I understand the drawbacks and it's again like that kind of macro proposition of like you
27:43have to be pretty confident that he outscores that tier of Drake May, Jayen Daniels, Joe Burrow, uh even extending to like Caleb Williams and Jaylen Herz.
27:51It's a big bet to make. I think it'll be interesting to see how I play it in FFPC because I think that the the
27:56quarterbacks I want to say lag behind, but especially there could start to be like runs and and it's hard to to play
28:02the board there. I could see myself, it's a little bit of a distinction because now I'm thinking through I could see myself taking Lamar in like round
28:08five of a manage league and then I'm kicking myself cuz like round eight Jayen Daniels just went and it's like uh
28:13that that's a gap that I I don't want to pay up for, you know, and I think you nailed it and that's sort of why I've
28:19been out on him especially in some of these higher stakes formats is Jaden Daniels I think has maybe a higher rushing upside than Lamar Jackson this
28:28year and I'm able to get him rounds later sometimes. and quarterback in general. It's not just like Jaden Daniels. Like if you're in FFPC and you
28:38draft Lamar Jackson in the sixth round and you're all excited, I get it. But then you get to round 11 and there's
28:43going to be some quarterbacks in like round 11 that you're like, I'm perfectly fine going into the season with Dak Prescott and Brock Pury who I drafted in
28:52like rounds 11 and 12 or Jaylen Herz falling. I was in a draft where Patrick Mahomes falls to like the 14th round. So
28:59I get it. It's just the it's the cost and the opportunity cost of maybe missing out on one of those wide
29:04receivers or running backs we like. But really it comes down to Jaden Daniels for me. Uh this is a player that I'm
29:11really really betting on having a huge bounceback season. I think he's going to lead all quarterbacks in rushing uh production this year and we saw just how
29:19electric a talent he was as a as a rookie. Obviously last year terrible hit rates if you drafted him early, but the
29:26thing to do in FFBC last year was you take Jaden Daniels at the three four turn and you take Terry McLaren with him
29:33and all of a sudden you have this amazing correlation. I think both players bounce back in a pretty major way. But where are you at specifically
29:40on Daniels?
29:42See, this is I think this is a a really good microcosm of kind of depending on what your format is because I think as
29:48well you'll see with a Lamar and kind of the quarterback scarcity in like a traditional home league on like say ESPN. Those guys I mean Allen's still
29:56like a two three turn pick over in that spot. You know what I mean? So like there's like there's home league,
30:00there's high stakes, and there's underdogs. Like on underdog Lamar's my most drafted quarterback just because I like I like taking him and then it feels
30:06like I have more flexibility to just take two quarterbacks later. I'm taking some Z Flower, some Andrews. He sets up with my stacks, whether it's Derrick
30:12Henry or Z Flowers in front of him. And honestly, you put him on the show sheet and I found I don't have enough Daniels
30:18on underdog is what I'll tell you. And here's why. It's really just that once I got to his tier of quarterbacks, I'm
30:23less convicted in each quarterback and just more do I have AJ Brown? Okay, I'll take Drake May. Do I have Dvonte Smith?
30:29Okay, I'll take Jaylen Herz. Especially in a baseball format. So Terry McLaren is someone I want to draft more of, but
30:35he's a little bit I'm not going to say outrageous on underdog, but you look on the rankings of underdog and you have to
30:40take him, see, for me, I have him a tier below the guys we just talked about with Lad and them, right? So if you're taking
30:45McLaren, you probably take him over like he goes right next to you're talking Jaylen Wadd, Josh Jacobs, Cam Scatabo, Luther Burden, Colston Lovelin. Those
30:52are all like if I want a running back, I take a running back. If I want an upside swing, I take one of, you know, Wadd
30:56Burden uh or Lovelin who I'm all over.
30:59So it just gets really tough. And if I don't have McCorin, then I'm like, eh, I kind of break the tie away from Daniels
31:04and go, okay, I'll just stack up Drake May to AJ Brown. So, I think in these managed leagues though and it becomes
31:10kind of like, oh my god, it's like it's round nine, you know, should I just catch one of these guys who are falling?
31:16Uh, I I think it makes a lot more sense.
31:17So, it's less the conviction there, but I see it like his rookie year was awesome. I'm a very big fan of what this
31:24offense is going to be. I I think I'll like McLaren's prices elsewhere a little more. Uh, but then once you get uh David
31:30Blau in the mix here, this offensive line looks good. I think that this whole offense could bounce back. I've even been taking stabs at the running backs,
31:35too. So, uh, I'm I'm in on the offense.
31:37I need more Daniels, though.
31:39>> Yeah, it's an interesting one to talk about McLaren because I like him a lot, too. But he's going right next to Jaylen
31:44Wadd, right next to Luther Burden. I like both those guys more than McLaren.
31:49Um, but Daniels, I think, is super interesting. I think there's uh some really strong vibes coming out of Washington just with David Blau, the
31:56play caller. And I think that the X factor is could we see Stfan Diggs sign with Washington in like the near future?
32:03Then we sort of get behind, hey, I really actually like the pass catchers.
32:07Instead of having to say, you know, can Antonio Williams do it? We've got Stfan Diggs who was pretty good last year, New
32:13England as like the two, McLaren as the one. That's pretty good stuff. Let's talk about a running back. Uh, and I've
32:20had some recent positivity with Bucky Irving. Most people were sort of fading him early, but now he's fallen into this range where Patrick Patra made a strong
32:30argument for him on my pod. Jacob Gibbs made a strong argument for him. I just can't get there because I'm worried
32:36about him losing receptions this year to Kenneth Gainwell. Am I being a little shortsighted? Are you in or out on Bucky
32:44sort of at the running back 24ish price tag?
32:50I'm in, but I'm not crazy about him.
32:54It's tough. I actually wrote him up as I did a bounceback video maybe a few weeks ago, and I had Buck Irving in the video.
32:59He's someone I I'm drafting. I will say a lot of my uh exposures are pretty uh are pretty right down the middle. I have
33:05him like 7.6% of the time. So, I'm drafting him here and there. I'm mixing him in because like he's there with
33:10twoin and he's there with Henderson and other guys that I like as well. You can zoom out and say, "Okay, year three
33:15running back, he was hurt last year."
33:16The Tampa Bay offense is one I want to bet on. Uh, I like Zack Robinson coming in here. I like this offensive line
33:22getting healthy with Tristan Worfs. Uh, I like Baker bouncing back. I like IA getting healthy. Godwin getting healthy.
33:28Like this is a offensive line and environment I want to bet on. And I think Bucky Irving has a lot of upside
33:33as a receiver out of the back field. It is a little crowded. Uh, I've heard the comp to James Cook last year. It's kind
33:39of similar to that where it's like it's a good offensive environment to be a part of. You're getting squeezed for receptions by of course Kenneth
33:44Gainwell. You're getting squeezed for goal line looks from Shawn Tucker. But again, if you like zoom all the way out, it's like year three breakout on a good
33:49offense, catches passes, is efficient, talented player. Uh it's easy to see how he pays off. But uh and I think this
33:56kind of a good I've been doing research for a strategy video that kind of talks about the RB dead zone. Uh and we talk
34:02about this especially in these manage league sites where running backs get pushed up a little more. Essentially once like the Scatabo Javvante guys are
34:10off the board, Buckyy's kind of the next guy that I wouldn't call him a dead zone back. I do want to back up there because
34:16he's he's young. He can he he can outproduce his projection by a lot, but you are betting big on him to outdo his
34:22projection because he's like a 12 point per game projection. I I did like an average of ESPN's fantasy life and sharp
34:29footballers projection just like just to remove all bias out of it. Uh Bucky projects for about 12 points per game.
34:34The wide receivers in his range all project for like 13 plus points per game. We're talking about Lad Mcconkey, Devonte, McLaren, Jameson Williams, DJ
34:40Moore. All these guys are 13 plus. So you are you're placing a big bet that he can outscore these receivers in this
34:46range and that's a scary proposition. I would have to be in a spot where I need a running back, right? Like if I take a
34:51running back up top and and now it's like a hero RB build, I'm fine with him as my RB2 and I see the upside, but uh I
34:57think that he's in like this live high leverage part of the draft where you have to get that right. Yeah, it's
35:03interesting and I was a full fade on him earlier in the offseason, but I'm looking today he's running back 25. Um,
35:10and that James Cook reference you made, that's a really interesting one. Jacob Gibbs made the Chase Brown comparison, and I was like, I couldn't get with
35:19Jacob on that one, but I do really respect how he analyzes running backs and I'm like, maybe I need to mix in a
35:25little bit more Bucky. And I think it's okay if you're doing this all and and you draft like these best balls early on
35:31like I do. I think it's perfectly fine to dislike a guy when he's like running back 15 and then be back in when he's
35:39running back 25. It's not it's not like it's it's proper process to take advantage of this new ADP value. So, I
35:47think I need to mix in a little bit of Bucky. The fact that I'm getting like Bucky next to like Tony Pard and Jaylen
35:53Warren in terms of like running back ADP and it's also an offense that I think is going to score a lot of points. I think
35:59the offensive line is elite. There's just a lot of reasons to like him. And you can still think that Kenneth Gainwell catches 50 passes. Bucky Irving
36:08can still get there with efficiency, explosiveness as a runner, opportunistic pass catcher, and then that touchdown equity. And we do we did see him early
36:18in the season last year. The volume was just fantastic to start out the season.
36:22So, I don't know. I think I need to maybe reshuffle where I where I have him ranked and try to get a little more
36:28exposure as we get through August. Uh, let's talk about some tight ends. Last year, Tucker Craft looked like he was going to be a potential FFPC league
36:37winner. You drafted him in the eighth round. I know Scott Barrett and I had him on two main event teams. We took him
36:42in the eighth round. We had a Tucker Craft Coloulston Lovelin teams and Tucker Craft looked like he was just going to be this amazing hammer for us.
36:50We had the tight end one, two tight end one overall scoring weeks and then of course he gets injured, done for the
36:57year. catastrophic loss, especially in tight end premium, but in regular PPR, he averaged 14 points per game last year plus. Where are you at on Tucker Craft?
37:05Currently on the pup, but by all accounts, they think he'll be there for week one. He's going in a range of tight
37:12ends where there's some really interesting players on the board, but I keep getting back to can Tucker Craft be the one that kind of burns me this year
37:20if it just looks like last year when he was trending up.
37:25I want to be in. And I I think you make a good point that I'm scared that I'm not in, but the nerd in me looks at it.
37:32And when we talk about guys coming off of injuries, usually that zaps their efficiency. And he was absurd efficiency wise last year. 4.8 yard AOT with a 15.6
37:43yard per reception is just bonkers to wrap your head around for a tight end.
37:47That means he's getting like over 10 yards after the catch per reception scoring a bunch of touchdowns. I think he only had like maybe barely a 20%
37:55target share. So, he was getting so much efficiency, so much after the catch efficiency, so much misackless force that tearing an ACL, I have a really
38:02tough time betting on that to bounce back. Especially when we talk about uh like FFPC with tight end premium, he's more of a touchdown yards guy. I
38:10probably prefer Fannon and Pitts in that format. Uh in other formats, I guess I'm actually looking at the AP now. He's
38:15like he's sort of fairly priced there.
38:18But on underdog, you're kind of paying for him a tier ahead of your Kyle Pittz, Harold Fannon. I guess like a mini tier
38:23ahead of Sam Laaporta.
38:25>> 20 spots ahead of Fannon essentially.
38:27About 20 spots ahead of Fannon. Yep.
38:29>> I can't do it. I I guess you you could sort of tell me, okay, it's underdog, it's half PPR, whatever. But again, like
38:35it just gets so tough for me when we talk about a player that wins on efficiency, right? With neighbors, we're talking 30% plus target share. Like I
38:41think you can get there in PPR, but you know, especially at tight end where you can get these guys off waiverss and
38:47things, it it just gets really tough to see. I mean, he would have to run hot efficiency wise. He could certainly bury
38:53us again. You know, 10 plus touchdowns.
38:54He does the Yak thing again, but off the ACL, uh I I think I have to bet against it.
39:00>> And I've been drafting a ton of Christian Watson in in like all formats.
39:04And then I've also mixed in some Reed and some Golden. Uh mostly mostly Christian Watson though. So it's sort of like I don't want to make too massive
39:15bets on Green Bay pass catchers and I think Watson has that that clear run out this year. And also it's funny cuz I'm
39:22calling Christian Watson like the healthy one but Christian Watson is the healthy one this year. So, uh, Tucker Craft really an interesting player.
39:29Tight end five, but like you said, uh, Leaporta, Fannon, Pitts, KD, there's other options right behind him right now as well. And Dallas Goddard at tight end
39:4015, Ron, that's one where I just can't figure out why he's still tight end 15.
39:45Your your quick thoughts on Goddard, obviously not a bounceback candidate, but we can get off subject and talk about just a interestingly priced player
39:52in ADP. had 11 touchdown catches last year, 20% uh target share, and he's the tight end 15. I don't I don't understand
39:59that one.
40:01>> Yeah, Goddard's one I haven't given much thought. He It just gets tricky. Uh where so much so much of his production
40:07last year was off of the touchdowns, and I hate to go back to it, but it's like AJ Brown is like a player that uh I'll
40:13tell my grandchildren about just in terms of his per route efficiency. Uh and he could never get more than seven touchdowns on this offense. I see it
40:21with God. He could be a top two target.
40:23I'm just not crazy. I mean, we'll see what Shawn Manion does. Uh, but I do have him I I have him like about with
40:29ADP, like right in line with the Andrews, Kelsey area, Jake Ferguson. Uh, I guess for me, I could see a little
40:35more touchdown upside in that range elsewhere. But, I don't know. I think I think Goddard's fine. I would say I'm like below market on him. It just kind
40:42of comes down to what my tight end room looks like, what quarterback I have. Uh, but I do get it. There was for the
40:48longest time early career Dallas got herd. you know, we were begging for Zack Z to get out of there and then AJ Brown
40:54comes in, it just never happened. Uh, and then last year he had these weird like screens and touchdowns and it ended
40:59up working out. Uh, but yeah, he's in a range of like late round tight ends I don't mind uh entirely too much. Yeah,
41:05he's he's really for me he's super interesting and I guess you could make arguments for some of the guys right ahead of him. Um, but once you get past
41:12him, I think a lot of the the upside bets are sort of theoretical. So for me, Goddard's been sort of the failsafe guy,
41:19especially in reddraft. I took him in an NFC draft this week, and I felt really good about the value that I got with
41:24him. And then in baseball, we know he's going to put up some spike weeks for sure this year, so he's a really fun
41:30player to add in. This was great today.
41:32Before I get you out of here, I want to do some rapid fire. So, let's go with if you could know the final stats of any
41:38player this season, who would it be?
41:42>> Wow.
41:43I think it would have to be Luther Burton. As crazy as that is to say, I I just I need to know what because then I
41:50could kind of I could kind of understand, you know, if he doesn't go off, then like Lovelin and Roman Dunce probably do well. If he goes off, then
41:56uh he's an awesome pick and you can kind of work your way backwards from Luther Burton. But he's the one that comes to
42:02mind instantly of I just want to know what's going on with the Bears because we saw last year uh the Bears offense
42:07was awesome, don't get me wrong, but none of the pass catchers really paid off in a huge way, right? Like they they
42:12were a great EPA for play team. They made the run in the playoffs. Caleb Williams was probably the biggest winner in fantasy, but I guess Swift was good.
42:19You know, Manonga was like a a small hit or I guess like a pretty big hit for a sleeper, but like Rome had the hot
42:25stretch early on, but like none of these guys truly truly crush. So, uh they're one of those teams. It's it's them or
42:30the Jaguars. I got to know one of the pass catchers.
42:34>> Yeah, it's a skeleton key player because it'll tell you what you need to do about Adun, maybe a little bit about what you
42:40need to do with Lovelin, but I think they'll they'll probably coexist.
42:43Certainly Caleb Williams and then Luther Burton himself who could end up being like a combination of Aman Ross St.
42:48Brown and Jameson Williams if it all shakes out right. Uh Ben Johnson the ultimate Luther Burton hype man. Does it all come into fruition? Uh let's keep
42:56this going. Play caller. You mentioned we both mentioned kind of Mike McDaniel.
43:02We tal you mentioned Shawn Manian. When you look at all the new play callers, who are who is the play caller you're
43:08most excited about? And if it's Mike McDaniel, throw a second one out there.
43:12I'm not going to let you get away with just saying Mike McDaniel.
43:14>> Would you uh consider Kubiaak going to the Raiders?
43:18>> Absolutely. Absolutely. Kubak.
43:21>> Yeah, that'd be that'd be it for me. I I this is just he's he's kind of an enigma. He's somebody I don't want to
43:26compare him to Ben Johnson, but I heard a really good show the other day with Josh and Hayden where they had on Ryan
43:30Paganetti. He worked for the Raiders. Uh and he kind of talked about like Ben Johnson being a guy that maybe you fire
43:35your head coach to bring him in. I truly think that Kubak is one of those guys where if I was one of these NFL, you
43:40know, if I was the Buccaneers, I'm sending Todd Bulls packing and begging Kubiaak to come call my plays. Uh, but he, you know, what he did with the
43:45Saints early in that season and just what he's gotten out of these offensive lines, what he got out of Sam Darnold,
43:50who, you know, as a Jets fan, I got front row tickets to see Sam Darnold.
43:53Uh, I just would love to see what this run game looks like with Genty, what he gets out of this offensive line, and
43:57then if Bowowers as this like power slot. Uh, I don't want to do the one for one with JSN, but, you know, being the
44:02guy that he flows the passing offense through, I'm very excited about. I I love the Kubak answer and he's he's like
44:08a offensive play calling genius and now you've got a situation where he's got two elite talents. Can it be like super
44:15consolidated and we get a a historically good season from Bowowers and maybe Genty gives us a RB4 overall season? I think it's in the range of outcomes even
44:24without Vegas being like a top 15 scoring offense. They were dead last in scoring last year and now they get this
44:31kind of life preserver and it's a great comp with Ben Johnson because he's done what he can to sort of try to fix this
44:37offensive line. I think Kubak is going to be great there. I love that answer there. Uh favorite stack. What's your favorite stack? I mean not your
44:46necessarily your highest exposure stack.
44:49It could be Ron. You draft enough. But what's the your favorite like stack or if you want to go technical your
44:54favorite correlation play? Wow. I I think it's a little bit simple, but I really like Caleb Williams to Coloulston Leland. As as much as we just talked
45:05about Luther Burton and everything, uh Coulson Leland is someone I'm drafting more than Luther Burden. It's why I don't have, you know, a 20% bag of
45:11Luther Burton because I'm just drafting so much Leland. Uh and I haven't I'll be honest, I haven't done the research to
45:15back it up, but it does feel when you're drafting an underdog, it does just feel cozy to be like my quarterback and tight
45:20ends are correlated. So when you know when you're picking from a smaller pool of player during those spike weeks, I like that they're both kind of
45:26correlated there where I feel like you know if I have eight receivers deep, finding some random spike week off of that, but you you could draw dead in the
45:32final if you don't have a tight end spike. So having those correlated I think is fun. Uh and I was just thinking
45:37through it like I I talked about a guy on Twitter the other day where he was like uh if you like like this Rome ADP,
45:43this Luther Burton ADP, it's like you better either hope that Caleb Williams goes crazy or something else. Like I just think Caleb Williams is going to go
45:49nuts with Ben Johnson in year two. Like kind of what this offense can be. Uh and Loveland could just be a guy. I think
45:54that he could be the tight end one overall. Like he he's that good.
45:58>> Yeah, you could see a run out where Lovelin's tight end one overall and Caleb's like QB3 and you won your league
46:04based on that stack. I I don't think that's crazy to say that. Ben Johnson, the elite play caller with elite talent.
46:10It's a really fun one. Now, here's a question for the true sickos out there.
46:14What's your favorite week 17 game?
46:18That one's a tough one. That That one's tough because you you truly never know what these rosters look like. I think
46:23the famous one is like I don't know.
46:25It's kind of the thing where they they schedule the the Thanksgiving games and then Thanksgiving gets here and it's like ooh like back with like the the
46:30Broncos and Russell Wilson and uh there's been bad runouts there. But I keep kind of going back to I don't want
46:37to pick like an obvious one because like obviously like the Bears Lions is going to be fun. I do I think this is actually
46:43an obvious one, but I do like Rams Buccaneers, but I'll give you one that's kind of off the beaten path. Uh I do
46:48like Giants Cowboys. I think that that was was that last year before uh the Malik Neighbors injury where like Russell Wilson throws for like 300
46:55yards, Bondale catches the long touchdown. Like these dome games between the Cowboys and Giants can sometimes just get crazy. Uh I think that I don't
47:03know if I'm thinking about the right game, but it might have been like Giants Saints like way back. This might this is
47:06like Eli Manning talk when it was like like a double overtime game like 40 plus points. Uh there's something about uh
47:13the Giants in a dome that I like. So I don't know give me some Jackson Dart uh what do you want to call it? Kind of
47:19like turnovers and like chaos and what that game script can be.
47:23>> Absolutely love it. Ron, let everybody know what you have coming out.
47:27>> Yeah, just videos all summer. We're going to have daily streams. Everything you could possibly think of for fantasy football. It'll all be on the Ron
47:34Stewart YouTube channel. Just check it out, subscribe, watch a video, uh, and hope you stick around for the season.
47:39It's, uh, best time of year. This is, you know, this is Christmas. We're getting there. Uh, football's around the corner.
47:46>> Yeah. And stick with us here right here on Ronwire Fantasy Football, dropping shows like this all throughout the month of August. We're going to help you crush
47:53your leagues this season.
