0:05breaking down finding league winning values inside of round four and round five in fantasy drafts. Can we make correct ADP decisions and crush our
0:15leagues in these two very important rounds? Joined today by John Dagel from Establish the Run. I'm Theo Ginger, lead fantasy analyst right here at Rotoire.
0:24This is the third one of these, John. I did round two with Mike Schop, round three with Jacob Sanderson, and now
0:30you're getting you're getting two rounds, John. So, not just one of them.
0:33And I think one of the big decisions for drafters when they get into this round is you start to see a number of running
0:40backs go off the board. And you see a cluster of running backs that are sort of linking with one another inside of
0:46round four. Kairen Williams, Javvante Williams, Josh Jacobs, who's actually come up a lot, Travis ETN, who's falling a little bit, and then you got Cam
0:58Scataboo, who sort of separated himself from a bunch of those year 2 running backs who are going a little bit later.
1:04So, it's Kairen Williams, Javvante Williams, Josh Jacobs, Travis Tienne, Cam Scataboo. Who is your favorite player in this range? And is this a
1:13range of running backs you like to attack?
1:17Um, actually it's not a range of running backs I like to attack basically because to to get into the big picture outlook
1:24of this uh I believe winning drafts this year when we talk about exceeding ADP expectations most of them will involve breaking down and hammering that third
1:35tier of wide receivers. Everyone from if you want to include Devont Smith in there but basically save flowers all the way down to to Mike Evans DJ Moore. I
1:43think getting three or four of those guys are really going to be key here, mixing in an elite quarterback who can
1:49outscore the everyone else at his position, too. And that just naturally leaves me out on these running backs despite them having logically on paper
1:57good situations. So, Kairen Williams, for example, uh someone I probably won't have any of unfortunately, we're talking about mixing in high stakes in home
2:06leagues. commanded. Well, let me step back again because we know historically Shawn McY has leaned on one running back for 90% of their touches. But last year
2:15through week seven, Kyron Williams commanded 74% of the Rams backfield touches for 18 per game. Afterwards though, his last 13 games after the buy,
2:24including the playoffs, only 60%. Not to mention the guy behind him, Blake Cororm, led all running backs success rate and finished second only to Devon
2:32Achan and their rate of 10 yard carry.
2:34So, someone who's also looming for Kron Williams, who I think is getting projected with a higher workload than he already showed us in the second half of
2:41last year. Also out on Javvante Williams. Not a popular opinion, by the way, but it's the same argument I've been making for being out on George
2:50Pickins, too. In baseball, we're not talking about that. You have a portfolio, you can sprinkle these guys in, no problem. But, you know, in the
2:57high stakes leagues and home leagues, I'm only playing in X Y of them. Thus, I can easily when I'm only playing x
3:04amount of players saying that uh I'm just not going to have these guys and most likely I'm just not going to have
3:08Javvante Williams either. Career highs in practically every category in his fifth year, first with the Cowboys. And the the key is that he would not have
3:17won your league last year at his current cost since he was last season's RB12 in points per game. now being drafted five
3:25rounds earlier around elite players.
3:28Whereas last season he was drafted in the eighth round and then he merged.
3:32It's an entirely different cost. And the last thing I want to do in season long leagues is draft a player who won't
3:38exceed ADP expectations who will just simply meet them. And so to me that range of players is not good enough. I'm
3:45going to go on wide receivers instead.
3:47Having said that, to answer your question a very long- winded way, uh again, not a popular opinion, but I I'm personally higher on Travis ETN. I know
3:55people have talked about like the Saints implied points in Vegas. Uh but again, if it if drafting were as easy as just
4:01looking at what sports books have projected in June and July, then we'd all be winning betters and this would be much easier. Like the whole what we do
4:09is prognosticate, try to pick out the offenses and situations and players that are going to exceed our expectations, especially at cost. And Travis ETN is
4:18still, if there's any skeleton key in fantasy football, there isn't, but there is one you want to point to. You always
4:24mention projecting for touches. Travis ETN does have over 290 touches in two of his last three seasons. Not to mention, he's going into a significantly better
4:33situation with Tyler Shuck and the Saints offensive line that improved throughout the off seasonason. Better surrounding cast with Chris Olavia and
4:40Jordan Tyson who led this class and his rate of being targeted on his routes 31%. As well and so I just look and say
4:48this Saints offense that was 10th in yards per attempt once Tyler Shup took over center. They also that's when they put together five of their six wins to
4:56close the year. They are going to be better, significantly better than the 21 and a half points they're implied to score weekly at Vegas, 23rd among all
5:04offenses. I don't believe that for a second. I think the Saints have a real chance to actually win the division. So,
5:09I like Travis ETN among this group.
5:12>> Yeah, I said that. I said that on X the other day that I thought the Saints could win the division. Uh and and I
5:17think people push back on that one, but they're second in Vegas right now. Uh they have the second highest odds to win
5:23the NFC South. I think it's I think they're they're climbing up there.
5:26Certain books have them pretty close to one. So, I'm with you on that. For me, this group of running backs when when
5:32we're looking at it, and again, we're talking Kairen Williams, Javvante Williams, Josh Jacobs, Travis ETN, Cam Scataboo. Scataboo is interesting, but
5:41for me, Josh Jacobs is probably it because there's drafts where he keeps falling and falling. If he can survive the off season, I think we're going to
5:50see an ADP boost. He has 30 touchdowns his last 32 games played. It feels like a player that I I would have been
5:58potentially fading, but Green Bay's done nothing to address the situation behind him. It's Chris Brooks versus Marshon Lloyd. Um, but they haven't brought in a
6:08veteran. And I think if they really thought that Jacobs was going to be suspended this year, end up on the commissioner's exempt list, they would
6:15have figured things out at running back and brought in a depth piece. They've completely ignored it. So, I think Jacobs is interesting. When you get
6:22Jacobs in round four, even as appealing as those wide receivers are, it's been a focal point guy. The sample size is much
6:30larger than what we've seen with like Javvante Williams or even even Travis ETN for that matter. Um, and Cam Scataboo obviously that sample size is
6:39quite small. Kairen, I'm just off. Um, I like Blake Cororm later and I don't want to, you know, chase Kairen's stats for
6:46the last two years. So, I feel like Josh Jacobs to me is becoming more and more appealing with no news right now off the
6:53field. Your thoughts on that one, John?
6:56>> The Packers splits are so wonky because when you look when they had Tucker Craft and their entire offensive line starting, they were actually a pass
7:04first team and one of the most efficient offenses the entire league. I think that's what they want to be if they were
7:09at full strength, but also that could logically at least open the door for for easier paths to success for Josh Jacobs.
7:17So, I think Josh Jacobs is perfectly fine. Uh I I I'm not even nitpicking. I have nothing really to say. I think he's
7:22a good pick.
7:24>> So, let's push down a little bit. So, those guys go a little bit earlier than this next cluster of running backs. And
7:30this next next cluster of running backs is really fun because it involves a player on one an offense that I think
7:37we're very excited about in Chicago in DeAndre Swift. And then it's David Montgomery who's you're getting a lot of like this year's version of 2024 Joe
7:46Mixon vibes mixed in. And then you got this group of year 2 backs Trayvon Henderson, Bashel Tutin, and Quinn Sean Judkins. When you look at this group of
7:57running backs, these five guys, is there a particular player that stands out to you? Uh, and maybe one you're completely fading.
8:05>> I like both Dave Montgomery and Bashel Tuton, but I'm also going to be wary of their ADPs. It's something I'm
8:13monitoring because I want both players, but I'm also not going to be upset if I can't get both players because their ADP
8:20surges. Uh David Montgomery I know is pushed down the boards in this range because of his lack of a receiving profile as you mentioned but also
8:29everything they've done this off seasonason uh is is terrific for David Montgomery. First of all think the Texans shipped previously two years ago
8:38a seventh round pick for Joe Mixon who though then gave 20 touches per week as the RB9 in points per game. They gave a
8:47fourth and a seventh. Much more capital for David Montgomery. So, we already can easily project the workload based on what they gave mixed in the past. Not
8:56only that, but their two of their biggest offseason additions, uh, Ed Ingram and Trent Brown on the offensive line, both players graded out as pro
9:04football focus as the best at their position, interior and tackle at gap blocking schemes. And from gap blocking last year, David Montgomery averaged 5.7
9:14yards per carry uh per the data I use at FT and Fantasy. I know some other people have different data. Not to mention
9:21drafting Caleb Rutage in the first round as the Texans starting center. So I just naturally think the situation is going to be much better for Montgomery who's
9:29been a very good player when he was healthy. Everyone has that last two months in mind when he was injured but
9:33ignored that entirely. And then of course it's Bashel Tutin who last year still was an explosive player who converted uh for six touchdown or six of
9:45his carries inside the five yard line into four touchdowns. Earned that role alongside Travis ETN six carries to ETN's nine inside the five yard line.
9:54Having said that though, we're still talking about the most athletic running back uh profile the NFL combine has ever tested and still sixth in success rate a
10:04Mullen running back. So that's just a profile that I actually want to bet on at ADP understanding his range of outcomes includes finishing as a low-end
10:12RB1. I know it can. Chris Rodriguez potentially blocks that ceiling, but again in season long all we care about is ceiling and so I'm willing to chase
10:23tootin at cost.
10:25>> Yeah, it's a really interesting range of running backs and you could sort of make a upside bullish case for multiple guys
10:32here. Um I mean even it's the most boring one, but if you're betting on Chicago taking a big step forward in Ben
10:39Johnson year two, he's interesting. I don't like paying that premium price tag for him. You mentioned like with Javvante, it's like this ADP correction
10:46from last year. For me, I like your Montgomery call out. I think he's rising up though where he starts converging into those other running backs and then
10:56you're talking about the opportunity cost versus wide receivers. I love the Bachel Tutin pick right now. I think Bashel Tutin is super interesting and
11:04getting access to Tutin when he's available in round six, it feels like almost an autoclick. Um there's some vibes where it's potentially comparable
11:13to like what we saw with Chase Brown heading into year two where it's a plus offense. It's a situation where he's in
11:20a uh a backfield competition. That time it was Zack Moss. Now it's Chris Rodriguez. I think that sort of narrative I' I've sort of talked myself
11:28into. And I think Tuton has upside as a receiver in this offense too. I think he could be very effective in the screen
11:34game uh and sort of an opportunistic pass catcher out of the back field. And you brought up like the rare athletic
11:40traits he has. So Tutin, I mean, he ran pure this off seasonason having to escape the threat of Chris Rodriguez versus like even a potentially a Jirean
11:50Price in the NFL draft or uh some of the free agents Jackson was linked to. I think he's interesting. Um and I I like
11:57Quinchon Judkins a little bit. I know that's not that's like the unpopular one where you mentioned sort of getting a little heat for the Travis ETN one. Like
12:05no one likes Quinchon Judkins now. Um, but I do believe in Todd Monkin, the play caller. And I think Judkins, you do
12:13see him go inside a round six in a lot of these leagues where if I start off with like a hero RB build, getting
12:19access to Judkins as like a running back two or running back three, I'm okay with it. He was an elite prospect coming out.
12:26Last off seasonason, he didn't have any time to work with the team. He was away from the team with the off-field issues.
12:32This year, he's had a really full off seasonason. He's beat injury expectations. um at OTAAS's there was a ton of positive uh buzz with him and if
12:41Cleveland could just be a little bit better offensively than dead last in the league. I think he can pay off here. I
12:47think the volume is going to be outstanding and again I think Monkin is going to feature him in or out on QJ.
12:53Are you completely fading him or is he a guy you're open-minded to?
12:57>> Not completely fading open-minded. Uh I prefer the Cam Scataboo route given Scataboo's receiving profile from last year. But again, these are the kind of
13:05guys where I'm just watching. Uh because I think this is where I start telling myself uh if it gets too high, I can
13:15make up their points later on in the draft, but if they do drop, these are prices I'm interested in. For reference,
13:22like so the the running back dead zone changes every year. It's it's a conversation within itself. But over the last two years really ADP has been
13:29accurate for the top 12 players in points per game because running backs have stayed healthy. But when you're looking at hits like just go back to
13:362023, Kyron Williams was undrafted as the RB2 in FFPC. He was still like a last round pick because people have noticed him. But in most the home
13:44leagues just completely undrafted. And then both Raheem Moster and Devon Achan had 10th round ADP. They finishes the RB4 and RB5 in points per game in 2023.
13:53over the last two years when these running backs have stayed healthy. Uh so the RB 13 through 24 a guy we can start
13:59every single week has averaged a sixth round ADP with 38% of RB2s in the last couple of years drafted from the seventh
14:06round on. And so I'm really looking at like the third to sixth round range again stacking those wide receivers getting out of the running backs who
14:13we're comfortable with but who I question if they can exceed the ADP cost and then coming back in and saying this
14:19is where I make up points at RB2 and three. I will be curious to see where Scataboo goes for the injury uh recovery
14:25and then of course Judkins for the environment.
14:30>> Yeah, it's an interesting conversation and I and I think that the you make a really good argument for this one. I
14:35know Rich Reebar came on and sort of made the same argument and there's been a lot of smart people making the, you
14:41know, attack running back very early argument. Um really a kind of a robust RB start, hit your wide receivers and structurally your draft looks pretty
14:50good. The problem is, John, I feel like everybody's doing it. And I think a lot of times you get that hero RB start this
14:57year where you're going to end up having to recover at running back, which is a challenge, but you might get access to
15:03an additional uh maybe alpha type wide receiver profile. You might get access to a Brock Bowers that you wouldn't get if you're going running back running
15:11back. So, it's a that's a really fun big macro conversation that I wish we had more time to talk about. Um, and I'm
15:18sure we will as the season moves along, but what do you have going on right now over at ETR? I know you're a busy man.
15:25>> Established Run, finishing up our team previews right now, but if you're tuning in, make sure to subscribe to both the
15:31podcast and YouTube feeds that are free because we've already been talking. We have a a lot of new and interesting and
15:37fun ideas coming up over this next month before the regular season. So, definitely subscribe.
15:43>> Yeah, check out John's work. We've podcasted about a million times together and I'm sure this won't be the last time
15:47you see him on here. He also went on with Ian Hardit. Go check out Ian's channel as well. Uh Ian's dropping some
15:53awesome shows over there. Um what did you break down with Ian when you were on his show?
15:59>> Running backs and how to handle them in home leagues since this is it gets wider every year, but this is the widest ADP
16:08from best ball to season long ADP has ever been. And all because quarterbacks, especially like the quarterback twos, are now being treated as 10th to 14th
16:17round picks where previously that wasn't the case at all. So, uh, seasonal long ADP is an entirely different shows and conversations this year. Fantasy
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18:20Let's talk about some wide receivers.
18:22And you mentioned this this uh like wide receiver tier being especially appealing. We're starting to see some wide receivers clustering together and
18:31sort of forming mini tiers in like round four. Let's talk about four guys in particular. Lad Mani, Garrett Wilson,
18:40Tedoa McMillan, and Jaylen Wadd. Do you have a preferred selection among this group of four wide receivers? And is this a group of players that you find
18:50yourself attacking and gravitating towards?
18:53>> Everyone usually phrases it and asks, "Who are the fades among this group?"
18:57And it's not like I'm purposely fading these individuals. Like if you if you look at the arc types that break out,
19:03Tedo and McMillan McMillan checks all the boxes. But I can't personally get ahead of him over Lad McConi and Jaylen Waddle in particular given his
19:14environment with Bryce Young who's been the QB 29 in points per game in back-to-back years. It's just a much worse situation. Not to mention over the
19:22last five games when Jaylen Coker came back healthy and finally started over Xavier Legette in two wide receiver sets. From that point forward, including
19:30the playoff game, McMillan was targeted in only 17% of his routes. Jaylen Coker was targeted on 23% of his routes. uh
19:37zooming out like it's a small sample to say an undrafted free agent is going to outtarget the number eight overall pick
19:45in a draft but Coker has at least proven to be better competition for targets than leg which makes me worry from a
19:53environment and quarterback that can't support two that three receivers let alone maybe even two. So I'm very much worried about McMillan and his range.
20:03Same goes for Garrett Wilson. We can all say it's an upgraded situation with Gino Smith, but how many games is Gino Smith
20:10really going to start for a team that's competing for the number one overall pick? The answer's probably half the season. So, even in being one of only
20:16three receivers to have a 30% target share last year, I'm concerned about Garrett Wilson ceiling. And that naturally leads me to chase among, you
20:25know, all the players I'm chasing in the wide receivers in this range, Lad McConi and Jaylen Waldo among the among among
20:30the ones you've asked about. McCon in particular, remember Mike McDaniel's Dolphins led the league in their rate of dropbacks that included Motion, 69% of
20:40plays since 2022. And McConi from Motion has averaged a 22 and a half% target share. For reference, the rookie year we
20:48all chased when he averaged 15 points per game, he also averaged a 22.9% target share. I'm expecting a massive bounce back for the Chargers and Mcconi
20:57in particular. And as it goes for Jaylen Waddle, on a per route basis, he's someone similar to when we pinpointed Drake London and George Pickins
21:07breakouts early, he's someone Waddle who got dragged down by the quarterback situation because on a per route basis, Waddle was elite. Led the league in air
21:15yards from week five on without Tyreek Hill, was targeted on 28% of his routes, and had the fifth most yards per route
21:22run in that time. So, those are two players I'm I'm high on.
21:26One player who I didn't ask you about in that range because he's a little bit different here. We talked about those
21:31four guys. They're sort of the the wide receiver ones in their offenses. Uh T.
21:36Higgins, who's been really one of the best wide receiver twos in football when playing alongside of Jamar Chase. The the production he's had with Joe Burrow
21:45has been fantastic. Are you gravitating towards T. Higgins in this range?
21:50Sometimes he goes as the first wide receiver among this group. Sometimes he falls somewhere in the middle, but he's usually going there, depending on your
21:58format, late third, early fourth.
22:03>> Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't he go neck andneck with Crystal Lobby and Devonte Smith or are those guys going
22:09among >> those? So, so those guys are going a little bit higher like looking at NFC ADP right now. Um, T. Higgins is going
22:18right be it's like Lad Mani, T. Higgins, Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Wadd, and then the all tier goes a little bit higher. I
22:25think in baseball, T. Higgins gets sort of dragged up with those guys, but there's a few pick delta right now between that like a lav uh tier and
22:35where T. Higgins goes. Is T. Higgins a guy you're very open-minded to?
22:40>> Open-minded, but I genuinely just don't take much of because I like the receivers around him more and I'll reach for them over T. Higgins. Like I I would
22:49take Zay Flowers, Amecha Ibuka. The other two we haven't talked about. Lad Makoni and Jaylen Waddle over T. Higgins in a
22:57vacuum. Thus, I am naturally not drafting T. Higgins when you're if you are potentially building Cincinnati correlation. Is that something that
23:05appeals to you, John, in like a major contest um where you might be more open-minded to like take a T. Higgins to
23:11get access to a burrow.
23:14>> Yeah. Like for example, I'm worried about the Rams offense uh this year, but I understand ceiling. So naturally, if the board opens up to me, I'm always
23:23pragmatic in every strategy. I I don't favor zero, hero, robust running back, it doesn't matter. Whatever the board gives me, that's the route I'm going to
23:30go. So whenever I can have Chase, who is my wide receiver 2, my 104 overall behind Puka Nua, uh, and non-titend
23:39premium formats, then sure, I I'll naturally grab T. Higgins over the guys I like personally more than him and then probably draft Joe Burrow early. I don't
23:47care. I like correlation. Yeah, T.
23:50Higgins is just for me like, you know, fourth round exposure to T. Higgins, even though there's these other guys where I feel like that sealing case for
23:57them in terms of just the efficiency, the usage as the number one target, it's there. But with Tig with T. Higgins,
24:04it's just a like those spike weeks, the ability to sort of put up huge numbers when it matters a lot. We've all seen
24:11like big huge weeks from hit Tiggins.
24:13I'm like open-minded to him. 21 touchdown catches over the last two years. We saw how effective he was in like 2024. I think this year, I mean,
24:22I'm gravitating towards Chase at the top, but I'm also open-minded to Higgins. And you don't have any of those concerns about bad offense situations
24:31like you do with McMillan, you do with a Wilson. You're getting access to this just tremendous offense in Cincinnati.
24:38So, he's a very interesting one for me.
24:40Let's go a little bit further down with wide receivers. It's not much further down, but again, we're talking about kind of micro tiers here. Uh, let's talk
24:48about Luther Burden. Let's talk about Terry McLaren. And then let's throw DJ Moore into the mix here, too, John. Uh, there's been some recent reports where
24:58DJ Moore like there's some positivity coming out in terms of could the usage be really strong? We've heard some recent Buffalo Bills beat reporters
25:06saying it. I've sort of been not avoiding DJ Moore, but he hasn't been a player that I've been uh really gravitating towards. I really like
25:15Luther Burton, really like McLaren. Your thoughts on these three guys? Do you have a favorite pick here, or are you open-minded to multiple guys here?
25:24>> I'm open-minded to all of them, including DJ Moore. So, Terry, let's start with Terry McLaren. Uh we saw in 2024 whenever the Commanders made that
25:33run to the NFC Championship that McLaren that was when he had a careerhigh in points per game and end zone targets at
25:40Debo Samuel and even last year whenever Debo Samuel was injured and McLaren was on the field he was targeted on 30% of
25:46his routes. I think it's really easy to go back to McLaren who I actually like more than Luther Burton, but Luther
25:51Burton I mean is a is a very easy one, right? Like leads the league in yards per route run. Uh last year without DJ
25:58Moore on the field for 148 plays, Luther Burden was targeted on 34% of his routes on those plays. For reference, Pukuna
26:04led the league in being targeted on 37% of his routes. And I'm not saying Luther Burton is going to finish second in that
26:09category. Just that's the kind of opportunity we're talking about under the a play caller we chase at Ben Johnson. So, love both of those
26:16individuals. And then I still like DJ Moore, which again is not public consensus, but he has no competition for targets considering even in the two
26:28playoff games the B the Bills started Khalil Shakir, Brandon Cooks, and Curtis Samuel. Uh, and we are also still like getting back to one him knowing the
26:38playbook since he Joe Brady over overlapped in Carolina with him in 2020 and 2021. And then Josh, we're just talking about naturally tacking on Josh
26:46Allen's number one wide receiver that also allows Stefon Diggs to break out years ago. So yeah, I I just don't mind
26:52chasing DJ Moore and stepping back regardless of per route stats and saying this is Josh Allen's number one receiver that you're letting go a little bit
27:01later.
27:03>> Where are you at on Christian Watson?
27:05He's an interesting one where I talk to people that are bullish on Christian Watson. They're like all the way in league winner type. Uh, and then I
27:13talked to some people where it's like, I'm gravitating towards a bunch of other wide receivers in the range he's going.
27:18He's actually steamed up a little too highly for me. Where do you fall in with that sort of argument, John? In or out
27:24on Watson? Uh, and his most recent cost.
27:27He's going right around wide receiver 25 in like FFPC and NFC. And we're also seeing some steam on like underdog uh
27:36and draft kings as well.
27:39>> I like Christian Watson just as much as the next person. and he goes in that tier of wide receivers that again I
27:43think it's important to grab three or four of them as opposed to the running backs in that range. A top 12 wide
27:49receiver last year in points per game whenever he was healthy for two wide receiver sets. Injuries are the only thing that's ever held them back. And
27:56now we're not even talking about a rotation around him considering the only wide receivers this team has is now Matthew Golden,
28:04Jaden Reed, and Christian Watson. So given that we are expecting Christian Watson to never leave the field when healthy, I do think he's a pretty safe
28:13low-end wide receiver one, wide receiver two that's not being drafted as such.
28:17>> Yeah. And to your point on the the wide receivers being so important in this range, a great stat from Ryan Heath, uh
28:25he talked about the number of wide receivers to run a 75% or higher route share across a minimum of eight active
28:33games. When we go back to 2021, there was 53 of them. 2022, 48 of them. Last season, only 40 of them. So, you're
28:42getting access to sort of a um a a dying breed of wide receiver in the NFL, John, where we used to be able to sort of wait
28:50and get maybe get access to a guy later, but the market has been so tight on these guys with the with the high-end
28:55usage. So, I think you're you're on to something with attacking this range of wide receivers.
29:01Uh, I agree with what you said since you agreed with me.
29:04>> There you go. There you go, John. There you go. Um, also want to continue talking about wide receivers. Let me
29:09throw another bunch of guys in here.
29:12We're talking about Devonte Adams, who was fantastic last year, 14 touchdown catches, but there's been some signs of of regression. Um, some people are
29:21pointing that out, but again, he's boosted by his system. He's very old.
29:26We're also going to throw Mike Evans into the mix, who could be this year's version of Devonte Adams and maybe maybe
29:32more as Brock Party's wide receiver one in San Francisco. Jameson Williams, who I'm always sort of a sucker for JMO this
29:40time of year, but a wide receiver two in the Detroit offense. And then let's throw Carnell Tate into this mix because
29:47drafters are really pulling Carnell Tate up as sort of the unknown upside guy, the rookie to chase. um he's been pulled
29:54up in some of these higher stakes formats. Do you have a favorite of this group of wide receivers?
30:00>> I I'm going to chase Mike Evans among this range for sure. Well, well, Devonte Adams then Mike Evans in that order. Uh
30:07Devonte Adams very easily 14 games played, nearly doubled up the next receiver and endzone targets. That's how they use him. That's also historically
30:15how they've used the wide receiver opposite of Puka Nakua whenever you even or the wide receiver too in general whenever you go back to Robert Woods Odo
30:23Beckham list goes on. Uh that guy just runs the right routes to score touchdowns. So Devonte Adams like him a lot just getting right back to it
30:32considering he led the league in receiving scores in only 14 games played as well. And then uh Mike Evans I I
30:38understand the the easy bare case and that he won't stay healthy. He scored his fewest touchdowns, three in the last decade last year. All because he also
30:47played a career low in games. But if he's healthy, we're talking about an offense that every year under Kyle Shanahan has finished top nine in yards
30:54per attempt. Last year when everyone was healthy, they they naturally elevated because of the offense. Two receiver, two top 24 wide receivers and a top 12
31:03tight end and the number one running back overall. Just an offense you always want pieces of. So, if Mike Evans stays
31:08healthy, I imagine it's like the Twilight years of Will Fuller where he competes as a top 12 wide receiver weekly. Otherwise, if he's injured, you
31:16know, you're you're not playing him. But when he's out there, he's someone you probably want in his range.
31:22>> Yeah, it's a very very interesting player to discuss. Uh, for sure. I I think Mike Evans, it's like it's really
31:29hard to find reasons to completely fade Evans. I do worry about like the injury history. I worry about the age where you
31:37get these scenarios where it's like it's very fresh on the mind. Devonte Adams showing up and just smashing last year and I think that was very influential on
31:44what San Francisco did. Um but it doesn't always work out like that with like these older guys ending up in a
31:50situation. So I don't know. Uh it's weird. Jameson Williams, just to sort of press you on that one. Um haven't heard
31:57a whole lot of enthusiasm for JO this year. at this time like last year I JMO got the big contract and everybody's
32:05sort of steaming him up in ADP moving him up. Uh are you in or out on him or is he just a player that you like the
32:12other players around him better because of usage or kind of explain that one John?
32:16>> Uh I like the other players around him much better since they were better on a per route basis and I think they're
32:22they're well I shouldn't say their environments aren't better because the Lions do have the easiest projected schedule in the league. We know Jir
32:28Gibbs averaged 27.4 PPR points and six career starts without David Montgomery as the clear 101. Uh so I like the Lions
32:36a lot. I do question if they can feed all the mouths from Jared Goff. Uh since last year's splits are really wonky with
32:43and without Sam Leaporta. Not to mention it was a year that we knew similar to Baker Mayfield. We knew and projected
32:50for Jared Goff progressing given that he didn't separate even with a careerhigh and touchdown rate and points per game.
32:56So, uh, Jameson Williams, again, like how I talked about with Garrett Wilson, not that I'm I'm low on the player, it's
33:02just that compared to his peers in this same tier, I'm just not getting much of.
33:07>> One last wide receiver to kind of discuss that's now kind of living in round four and round five is Malik
33:13Neighbors. Um, Neighbors continues to fall. Uh, we've seen him going in a kind of a wider range of drafts than than
33:20maybe anticipated. He he keeps like we've seen a number of Malik neighbors in the fifth round exposure um where it becomes very enticing especially in some
33:29of these higher stakes formats. Uh his official ADP right now is the 410 in most recent FFPC ADP. Are you looking to
33:38mix him in in reddraft, John, or is he more of a I'm worried about the injury.
33:44I'm gonna stick to, you know, the the the best ball streets >> I in in FC and FFPC, everyone knows what's going on and so he probably will
33:54creep to an acceptable ADP. Uh, in home leagues though, if anyone's listening to this, drafting against nine, 11 other people, uh, they probably won't catch on
34:05and so his ADP is going to stay too high for me. Uh, understanding that we're we most likely can't start him in the first
34:11four to six games. So, I probably won't have much of Malik Neighbors.
34:17>> Yeah, it's a really I mean, you hate the unknown and then you also bring up the appealing wide receivers around him. I
34:24think we can all agree that a healthy neighbors is going rounds and rounds above any of the wide receivers we talked about today. But it's sort of
34:30like if you're going to miss out on six games to start the year and then there's maybe a ramp up period, are you going to
34:39be able to recover with your build when you're still having to take him to round four? Sort of the argument for Rashi
34:44Rice last year um where you're going to be able to sort of get him and it's going to be a free square player. That
34:50was a suspension rather than an injury.
34:53Uh, this is a different one for for neighbors. So, I think I'm I'm kind of with you on that one. Let's talk
34:58quarterbacks a little bit because and again, this is depending on your format, but if you're in like the FFPC, you're seeing Josh Allen going inside of round
35:09four, right at the beginning of round four. And in fact, you're also seeing it in the NFL. Um, and underdog. We've also
35:17seen Allen falling to a range where he's cheaper than he was in previous seasons despite continuing to score at a very
35:25high mark. It's really the entire quarterback market has gotten pushed down a little bit this year. John, um, where are you at with attacking QB1
35:33overall Josh Allen in your builds? Is it an edge pick because you're getting Allen at sort of an enticing range and
35:42maybe you're able to avoid landmines or are your builds going to look much much better taking quarterback several rounds later and maybe you hit on a wide
35:52receiver one or potentially an RB1 where you would have had Allen, but the opportunity cost of taking him prevents you from going in that route
36:01>> to it's not about whether Josh Allen will finish the QB1. It's a matter of if he's going to separate in that range of
36:07players where we should be taking also elite positions and if he's going to separate from then Lamar Jackson, Jaylen Herz, and Jaden Daniels going much going
36:17later. Uh, and so I probably won't be taking Josh Allen at all because I do not believe he will separate from those
36:24three other individuals significantly given that all were injured and or in terrible situations last year. Most likely I'm going to have Jayen Herz in
36:32practically every league because his ADP is absurd. It's kind of offensive that Joe Burrow gets drafted over him. Like how how long do we have to do this until
36:40everyone learns their lesson about taking the statue quarterback over the rushing guy? Especially after Herz just averaged career lows in scramble rate
36:47and design carries per game. All because of the sins of Kevin Patulo who are now is now no longer calling plays. It's
36:54instead Shawn Manian who at the very least has said all the right things and can't possibly be as bad as Pulo was for
37:00that entire offense. So I'm backing on the Eagles across the entire board including Saquon Barkley at the first second round turn. Thus uh my plan most
37:09likely entails waiting for Jaylen Herz later than Josh Allen thinking that Herz can be the overall QB1.
37:16>> Yeah, it's it's a really interesting one with with Jaylen Herz because he's falling in this crazy range. I mean, we've seen 10th round exposure to Jaylen
37:24Herz in NFC. Uh, even later in FFPC, uh, the most recent one with Jayen Herz, I mean, we it's been actually the 1006
37:32most recent uh, fall for Jaylen Herz.
37:35So, you're talking about a four-point passing FFPC where usually quarterbacks with mobility are pushed up. You're able to get Herz occasionally in round 10 and
37:44FFC as well. So, it's it's wild. I agree with you. Um, and we've actually seen Joe Burrow getting pushed up. Any other
37:51quarterback targets for you that you like besides Herz?
37:55>> I mentioned Lamar Jackson as one of them who goes like typically a round or so after Josh Allen, but for the Ravens uh
38:06last year they averaged uh what was it now? Uh I lost it in my notes. They averaged less than 25 less
38:16than 27 pass attempts per game. It was the second fewest of the last decade, 24.8. And we've seen the other six teams
38:26to average less than 27 pass attempts per game. The past decade have then the following year averaged 6.1 more attempts per game. So, we're expecting
38:36just naturally more volume and regression. Not only that, but it was a a seven-year low in fantasy points per game for Lamar Jackson. So, we're just
38:43also again naturally expecting him to bounce back with a play caller we should chase. Given that Declan Doyle is going to be Ben Johnson's first seed in the
38:52NFL coaching tree, 30 years old calling plays. We don't know what to expect, but we're hoping he at least learned a
38:58little bit from Ben Johnson. So, yeah, I still think Lamar Jackson. And then of course Jaden Daniels who we're just betting on a giant bounce back for
39:05Washington and David Blau kind of similar to how I talked about with Terry McLaren. Jaden Daniels is a guy who was
39:11already top three in points per game and now being drafted sometimes behind Joe Burrow. So uh I like all three of those
39:17guys Daniels Herz and Jackson more at their cost more than I like Josh Allen at his.
39:26Let's pivot over to the tight end position to sort of end things here. Uh in home leagues, a lot of these guys are
39:32going to fall to a very late range. But if you're drafting in a tight end premium format like the FFPC, there's
39:39this range of tight ends sort of between tight end five and let's call it tight end 9 that are all going in like
39:46somewhere between the fifth and early seventh round. Uh, and again, if you're in a regular PPR format, this uh, tight end five through tight end 9 range has a
39:57number of just sort of appealing players in it. Uh, where you can paint yourself a picture that they have very solid
40:02fantasy seasons. Feels like kind of the year of the tight end. John Tucker Craft, Kyle Pittz, Harold Fannon Jr., Sam Leaporta, George KD. When you look
40:12at that group of five tight ends, is there a player that stands out to you as a player you want to attack or are you
40:19fading this range of tight ends and looking for earlier or later guys?
40:24>> Uh Kyle Pittz is someone that I prefer among this group. I I know the splits with and without Drake London were
40:32disastrous, but I still take I prefer to take a big picture approach and zoom out and understand it's a different head
40:38coach, different play calling, a different quarterback. and Kevin Stansy's offense every year in Cleveland finished with a top nine ran of targets
40:44to their tight ends. So, I really like Cal Pittz getting that extension reassurance from the organization. And then if I don't get him, these other
40:53individuals I'm not drafting in this range, I'll typically then just wait for Dallas Goddard, uh Isaiah Likely, or Chica Conquo next.
41:05>> How about at the very top of the tight end position? Uh, is, you know, you talk about Brock Bowers, I'm assuming he's
41:11your tight end one. Are you looking at Trey McBride to hold on as like your tight end, too, or do you believe in
41:18like the challengers of Coulson Lovelin and maybe even Tyler Warren? There's been some uh recent sort of positivity surrounding Warren as well, taking on
41:26sort of a huge role.
41:28>> I have Lovelin ranked over Trey McBride for for for example, Trey McBride last year with Jacobe Brassette under center averaged 40 passes per game. That is a
41:38number that over the course of a season has only been sustained 10 times in the last decade. So a 3% outcome and and uh
41:46the only teams to do it back-to-back years was Tom Brady's Bucks. Jacobe Brassette's not Tom Brady. He doesn't get to dictate the offense. He's not
41:52even at camp to start because he's working out a new new deal supposedly.
41:56Uh and so you're asking then when the regression for their volume for Arizona hits for mediocre players like what happens to the entire offense? Likely
42:04the bottom falls out. So, I'm very worried about Trey McBride. Last year, remember also he was going, it got closer as August, September crept in,
42:12but Trey McBride at one point was going the full round after Bowers. This year, that's not the case. They're basically neck andneck. Thus, in my mind, that
42:20makes Bowowers the significantly better value, like the the best value. So, last year I was not on Bowowers, I was on
42:26McBride. This year, given their ADPs, I'm all over Bowowers. And then I typically check out. I am a little bit worried that Coloulston Lovelin he does
42:36remember he at his range at his cost he doesn't have to beat Bowowers he has to keep it close and I'm a little bit
42:40worried he's so good with so much opportunity without DJ Moore that he can keep it close thus nixing uh Bowowers's ceiling outlook but uh I still happily
42:52you know probably grab Bowers and then wait until later on.
42:56>> Yeah, really really strong stuff from John. John, let everybody know what you have coming out. So already mentioned established run team previews wrapping
43:03up where you can get all all these ADP takes and historical outlooks for every single player across every team and then
43:09yeah like I said podcast YouTube all free establish the run where we are going to start turnurning out new ideas beginning next week when all the
43:18veterans report to training camp. So tune in.
43:20>> Yeah, check out all of John's work.
43:22Check out Rotoire. All my work is over there. You can use the code Theo and get 20% off of any subscription right now.
43:29Stick with us here at Rotoire.
