0:05>> ADP takeaways that fantasy managers need to know early in the month of July.
0:10What's going on? I'm Theo Gremminger, lead fantasy analyst right here at RotoWire, and we're taking a look at some high-stakes ADP takeaways
0:19specifically from the NFFC. And I'm looking at NFFC ADP because these are all real drafts with money on the line.
0:29These drafts are all $350 entry drafts as opposed to some of these leagues where you're getting early ADP data and it's from mock drafts. So, throughout
0:40the summer, the ADP starts cleaning up on other sites, but right now it's completely locked in in the NFFC. These are all again from $350 drafts. This is
0:50their online championship drafts. So, players are playing for big prizes.
0:55They're also playing to win their 12-team league. This is start three wide receiver with a flex and six-point passing touchdowns, PPR format, of
1:05course. Let's start out right at the top, and I talked about this one pretty much all spring long if you've been
1:11following my content, the the rise of Jahmyr Gibbs. And it took a little while for Jahmyr Gibbs to reach the pinnacle,
1:19but it happened a couple weeks ago on Underdog. You're also seeing it in NFFC drafts, and you're seeing it in FFPC
1:26drafts, you're seeing it on DraftKings.
1:29Jahmyr Gibbs is your 1.01 in all formats. So, there was sort of the Bijan Robinson time where when drafts opened up, Bijan Robinson was the 1.01, and
1:39it's just been a slow drip, but more and more often we're seeing Jahmyr Gibbs at that 1.01 spot. Feels like a player who
1:47could break fantasy football this year.
1:49You start dreaming about situations like 2019 Christian McCaffrey. Could Jahmyr Gibbs end up with a 25 point per game season? Could he set career marks?
2:00Really the sky is the limit and the threat of the running back two behind him is so much lower than we saw in
2:08years past. Detroit really went out of their way to get David Montgomery as involved as as much as humanly possible at times during Gibbs' career. But it
2:18hasn't really affected Jahmyr Gibbs in any way. He's been a weapon of mass destruction. We all saw the last two seasons where he went nuts. This feels
2:27like his year. He's locked in at the 1.01 and be prepared that if you want Jahmyr Gibbs, you better draw that 1.01
2:35in all formats right now. Even in superflex formats, look for Jahmyr Gibbs to be locked in in the top five picks.
2:42He is that good right now.
2:44Lately we've also been seeing a lot of steam from another running back and maybe it's not the running back you're thinking of, but it's Ashton Jeanty. In
2:52these formats like the NFFC and the FFPC, there's been some very sharp money sort of backing Ashton Jeanty. Some high volume drafters who are repetitive
3:03drafters who are really embracing Ashton Jeanty and his role in this Clint Kubiak scheme. Make sure you go and check out
3:12my video I dropped on the breakout offenses and one offense I think is due for a major turnaround is the Las Vegas
3:20Raiders. It's not a high bar to cross.
3:23They were the lowest scoring offense in football last year, but the Clint Kubiak effect should be real. Ashton Jeanty has the ability to catch 70 passes this year
3:33and should do great work on the ground behind an improved offensive line and improved offensive scheme. Jeanty averaged over 14 points per game last
3:43year and it felt like a big ADP loss.
3:46Drafters are giving him a huge pass and looking for a massive year two breakout.
3:52In the last week over on NFFC, Ashton Jeanty has gone seventh overall in ADP.
3:59He's steamed way, way up there. And in some other formats like the FFPC, he is converging with Jonathan Taylor, a back
4:08who just went nuts last year. But when you look specifically at the NFFC, Ashton Jeanty has gone as high as six
4:15overall and hasn't fallen past that middle of the second round in any of these drafts. He is completely locked in seventh overall right now in ADP over
4:26the last week. Let's keep it going.
4:28We're talking about A.J. Brown. And I feel like I talk about him on every single show. And really one of my
4:35biggest pet peeves this time of year is listening to another fantasy football podcast and hearing somebody talk about how they're going to get A.J. Brown in
4:42round three. If you hear somebody talking about A.J. Brown in round three, uh turn it off the podcast and scale up.
4:49If you want to listen to some other podcasts, there's some good ones out there, but you could just stick with my
4:53ADP data and check out the ADP data over at rotowire.com. We are completely locked in over there. Accurate ADP data that will help you win. And if you want
5:02access to my rankings, all of my articles, my dynasty rankings, my redraft rankings, all of my articles, plus our amazing tools, go check out
5:11rotowire.com. Use the code theo15 and it gets you 15% off of any RotoWire subscription. But let's continue talking
5:20about these ADP takeaways. A.J. Brown. I mean, A.J. Brown is an absolute rocket ship to the moon in ADP. He is steaming
5:28up in a major, major way. He's going back-to-back with Drake London in FFPC drafts. But in NFFC, he's going even
5:37higher. Remember, NFFC is a start three wide receiver format PPR. So wide receivers are at a premium, especially wide receivers who have the ability to
5:47finish as the wide receiver one and you're seeing a lot of very smart people sort of making the claim that AJ Brown
5:54could lead the league in touchdown catches, has a pathway to 150 targets, and is going to catch a ton of passes,
6:03and has big play ability in this offense. Let's remember, New England averaged five plays of 20 yards or more last year in year one of the Josh
6:14McDaniels Drake May experience. That offense has gone out and gotten AJ Brown, signed Romeo Dobbs, and drafted Eli Rare Don, not to mention returning
6:24guys like Keyshawn Boutte and Kyle Williams into the fold along with Hunter Henry. So, the passing game is strong there, but it's going to center around
6:33AJ Brown. He's steaming way, way up.
6:36We're seeing him at 14th overall in NFFC drafts over the last week ahead of Drake London, which is very interesting. And
6:44when you talk about 14 overall, you're talking about a player who could end up inside of the first round by the time we
6:50get to the live drafts in New York City, the live drafts in Vegas. I'm going to be at those NFFC live drafts. Come and
6:57say what's up to me if you see me in New York. I'll definitely talk to those guys and Vegas as well. Really looking
7:03forward to that. Those live drafts with the NFFC are a lot of fun, but AJ Brown has gone as high as eight overall and he
7:11hasn't fallen out of the round round two at all. His ADP low over the last week is 21 overall in this format. That's
7:19sort of where we're heading. And if you're playing best ball, you're also seeing AJ Brown really, really rising up. Living inside of round two on
7:26Underdog, living inside of round two on DraftKings, and also in the FFPC, he is living inside of round two. So, AJ Brown
7:34completely locked in. I think that ADP is going to trend up and you're also seeing drafters correlating AJ Brown with Drake May. A.J. Brown, you really
7:45are I I don't see a scenario outside of him getting injured where this ADP steam is going to stop. If anything, it could
7:52rise up. Now, could A.J. Brown rise up and sort of touch the Justin Jefferson CeeDee Lamb tier? I think it's possible.
8:00Right now, CeeDee Lamb is at 10 overall, A.J. Brown at 14 overall, but when you start talking about upside, you start
8:07talking about role, you start talking about target competition, there's no George Pickens opposite A.J.
8:12Brown. We sort of know what Romeo Doubs is. We know what those running backs are. There's sort of the a battle
8:17between Traveon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson. I like Traveon Henderson. I know there's a lot of people on Stevenson, but A.J. Brown offensive
8:24focal point New England Patriots, he is steaming up inside ADP right now.
8:30Another wide receiver we're seeing go absolutely nuts is Emeka Egbuka. Egbuka is a rocket ship. We talked about A.J.
8:37Brown. Egbuka's getting pretty close, and this is a need to walk away from my draft with him type player. There are
8:45managers who walk into a draft, and no matter what pick they get, they are Emeka Egbuka no matter what. You're seeing some really smart people bank
8:55banking on an Emeka Egbuka year two massive breakout season, and we saw it.
9:00I talked about him as one of my dark horse league winner candidates. You can go check out that video right here on
9:05Rotowire YouTube. And if you're watch you listening to it on the podcast, it was a very recent podcast as well. It
9:12was my dark horse league winners available anywhere you get your podcast and on Rotowire YouTube. But Emeka Egbuka, a rocket ship right now.
9:21He's up to 20th overall in NFFC 350s.
9:25So, he is going inside of the second round. Doesn't ever fall out of like the middle of round three, and you're seeing
9:32some one-off situations where he's going towards the very top of the second round. We haven't seen any first round exposure to Emeka Egbuka, but we did see
9:42him go at 13 overall, which is a massive massive place to see a player like him go, especially considering the struggles
9:51that he had down the stretch last year, and considering where you're seeing some analysts sort of fading him right now.
9:57Not me. I am definitely on Emeka Egbuka, but you're seeing him go as high as 13 overall. The lowest he's gone in the
10:05last week in these $350 drafts is 27 overall. So, feels like a player that's headed for the 2-3 turn, possibly higher
10:15by the time we get into the late summer.
10:18And I think we're going to see this in other formats as well. We've seen Egbuka steam up on Underdog. We've seen him
10:23steam up in FFPC as well, but specifically to the NFFC, locked in right now 20 overall. Let's keep this going. Talked about a couple of wide
10:33receivers. Let's talk about the tight ends. And let's talk about Brock Bowers and how he's separating himself from not only Trey McBride, but especially from
10:42Colston Loveland. And we knew he'd go well ahead of Loveland. It's a little closer in some of the tight end premium
10:47formats like the FFPC, but Bowers is sort of on his own island. He hasn't fallen past the 2-3 turn in any of these
10:57NFFC drafts in the last week, and he has settled in as the 21st overall player off the board. So, very solidly a second
11:05round pick. Compare that to last year's tight end one overall Trey McBride. Trey McBride is the 29th overall player in ADP. So, we have an eight-spot gap
11:17between Bowers and McBride, but the downside for McBride, we are seeing Trey McBride almost brush up with the beginning of the fourth round. His low in these
11:28drafts is 34 overall. So, he's got a little bit of of variance here. Bowers, on the other other hand, doesn't really
11:35slide out of that second-round to 2-3 turn pocket. Again, gone as high as 19 overall and his low is 25 overall. So, drafters, much like
11:47Gentry, are betting on a huge Klint Kubiak boost. I've made the comparison between Brock Bowers being this year's version of Jaxon
11:56Smith-Njigba. It's going to be a run-heavy offense in Vegas, but I think that Bowers has a chance to lead the NFL
12:04in tight end target share by a considerable margin, even with Trey McBride in Arizona, even with Loveland, Tyler Warren, some of these other
12:12players we're expecting to have pretty strong target shares at the tight end spot. Bowers is so locked in, the role looks very, very fantasy-friendly. Let's
12:21pivot back over to the wide receiver position. This feels like a wide receiver show because I think wide receiver is a position that we need to
12:29get right. You're seeing drafters really bet on running backs early. You're seeing a lot of robust RB starts, meaning a manager starts out with
12:37running back, running back, or you're seeing some of these hero RB starts, where a manager starts out with a running back in round one or round two.
12:46So, that's created this big group of wide receivers somewhere inside of the late second and third round, and we need to get it right this year. And one
12:56player that I've talked about being a target of mine, also included him in the Dark Horse League Winners category, was DeVonta Smith. Talked about A.J. Brown.
13:05We're talking about his ex-Eagles teammate, DeVonta Smith. This is the fantasy football equivalent to a blackjack split. Two really, really good
13:13players who are playing next to one another are now separated. Brown will be in a higher volume passing situation in New England, and DeVonta Smith should
13:22step right into A.J. Brown's prominent role. And he talked about A.J. Brown's role when in Philadelphia. He wanted more, but that role is still awesome for
13:32fantasy football. A.J. Brown continually was towards the top of the NFL in target share, in first read rates, in air yard
13:41share. And A.J. Brown had a number of high-end wide receiver one seasons.
13:46Philadelphia is going to lean right into DeVonta Smith for this one, and drafters are banking on it. You are not getting
13:52any sort of a discount right now with DeVonta Smith especially in these high-stakes NFFC three-wide receiver formats. DeVonta Smith is up to
14:0224 overall over the last week. So, he has slid into the back of the second round. We've seen him go as high as 21
14:10overall, and he hasn't gone lower than 29 overall. To put that in perspective, DeVonta Smith is right behind. He's going back-to-back with George Pickens,
14:20Nico Collins, and he is going ahead of Rashee Rice and Chris Olave. So, I think you're seeing a lot of fantasy rankers
14:30out there who are have those guys ahead of DeVonta Smith, but the high-stakes drafters in NFFC are betting on this huge upside role for DeVonta Smith.
14:40Again, if you want access to my rankings, I've got DeVonta Smith pretty highly up there. Have Chris Olave ahead of him, but DeVonta Smith is very close.
14:48Check out rotowire.com, use the code Theo15, get access to all of my rankings. I'm going to have NFFC specific rankings throughout the summer
14:57as well to help you draft in the NFFC.
15:00I'm going to have FFPC specific rankings, and of course my regular PPR rankings.
15:05We're going to update continually, keep you locked in, ready to crush your leagues. Use the code Theo15. But, DeVonta Smith right there. Again, it's
15:14that wide receiver cluster. We're going to have to get it right. And when you go through these names like George Pickens,
15:20Nico Collins, DeVonta Smith, Rashee Rice, Chris Olave.
15:25There are multiple good answers to this question. So, where ADP is something that we can leverage to know where the pockets of value are. We don't want to
15:37be completely like following ADP, but we want to know where we have access to some of these players we should be targeting. Well, you've got
15:46it if you're playing NFFC here, it's really the 2-3 turn in the NFFC has turned into a wide receiver tier. It's
15:55interesting because in some other formats, you're seeing running backs going at that 2-3 turn. That running back running back start start
16:04running back running back running back start on like Underdog has been a popular one this year, especially when you get like the first or second pick.
16:11It's been the opposite in NFFC where drafters take Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson and then they followed up with that pick at the end of the second round
16:21being a wide receiver. Remember, NFFC also has third round reversal. So, it is not your traditional third round. You
16:30are really seeing drafters not want to they do not want to get steamrolled here and they don't want to miss out on wide
16:37receiver value. So, you're really seeing those drafters attacking wide receiver at the end of round two and then also seeing drafters clean up those Rashee
16:48Rice, Chris Olave types as well as the Zay Flowers and Ladd McConkey at the beginning of round three. But, that has
16:56also created some interesting running back scenarios here because we're seeing Jeremiah Love inside of round three and this is not
17:05where we're used to seeing this level of running back. When I say Jeremiah Love and I say this level of running back,
17:12I'm talking about this level of prospect where you get a running back going off the board at like three overall. You
17:19think about where Ashton Jeanty was selected. He was going at the 1-2 turn.
17:24You think about where Bijan Robinson was going as a rookie. Bijan Robinson was locked in as a first-round pick and never really fell out of the beginning
17:32of the second round. If anything, Bijan Robinson was going in the first way more often than the second. Jahmyr Gibbs was
17:40even going inside of the late second at this time his rookie year.
17:45You even go back a little further. You look at Najee Harris who had a very strong rookie season in Pittsburgh, finished as an RB1 that year. He was
17:53going as an early second-round pick in formats like the NFFC. But Jeremiah Love is a player that it feels like the
18:02high-stakes community in the NFFC is fading. He's going at 31 overall. So, this is a little lower than you're seeing Love going in formats like
18:11Underdog and FFPC. NFFC drafters are allowing Jeremiah Love, the third overall pick, a dynamic talent fall to
18:2031 overall. He's going two spots behind his teammate Trey McBride. I think it's a little bit of fear of the unknown when
18:30it comes to the Arizona Cardinals offense.
18:32Quarterback concerns, to say the least, with the idea that Carson Beck, the third-round pick out of Georgia, is going to take
18:41over as the starting quarterback some point early in the year. Now, Jacoby Brissett could hold onto it, but Jacoby Brissett was 1 and 11 last year as a
18:51starter. So, Arizona, like there's a disconnect where fantasy managers look at Jacoby Brissett and I'm like, "Hey Hey man, all my teams that had Jacoby
19:00Brissett, I loved having him. He was awesome for fantasy. Had a ton of pass attempts, was in these great game situations, come from behind mode,
19:08scored a lot of points in second halves of games." But the media in Arizona sort of seems to want to change here, where
19:15Jacoby Brissett might not hold onto that job unless he wins some games early on. So, what happens if Arizona starts the year out
19:24one and four? Do we see Carson Beck as early as the sixth game of the year? I think we could, and I think that's
19:29scaring drafters off. You also look at the fact that Tyler Allgeier signed as a free agent. He was a continual thorn in
19:36the side of Bijan Robinson his rookie year. Could we see history repeat itself this year? Drafters don't want to get burned when it comes to Jeremiah Love. I
19:45also think it's a little bit of the Ashton Jeanty effect. Last year drafters pushed this highly drafted running back up into the first round, and this feels
19:54like a little bit of an overcorrection this year, where they don't want to get burned again.
19:58Personally, if I'm drafting in NFFC, Jeremiah Love in the third round is an awesome pick, because I think the pass-catching ability,
20:08the explosiveness, and the raw talent is something that I think we'll see amp up as the season moves along. Maybe the
20:15first month of the year might be annoying, but that is not a talent that I'm going to pass up on inside of round
20:22three by any means. I think that you have to embrace it, and you have to play to win in formats like the NFFC. NFFC,
20:30you're talking about a format where you are playing for hundreds of thousands of dollars in a format like the online championship, not to mention the money
20:39you'd win during the regular season. So, Jeremiah Love inside of round three feels like a potential value to be had, but I understand the apprehension, and I
20:49understand sort of the opportunity cost, because Love is surrounded by multiple strong wide receiver picks. You're talking about he's bracketed by guys
21:00like Ladd McConkey, Tee Higgins, Garrett Wilson, Tyjae Spears, McMillan, Luther Burden, and then you have Jaylen Waddle at the end of that third round. So, it's
21:10wide receiver cleanup, and Love is a running back. Again, you have to start three wide receivers in the NFFC, and you have that flex. So, a lot of
21:18managers will roll out four starting wide receivers each and every week.
21:22Jeremey Love is one we want to keep an eye on. Another player steaming up, get back to the wide receivers cuz we keep
21:28talking about wideout. Christian Watson is a rocket ship. He is steaming up in the NFFC in a major way. He is going at
21:3640th overall. So, this is a very high area for Christian Watson to go at. Had that huge contract this past off-season,
21:45and we're seeing a lot of variance with Watson. Again, this is over a 1-week period, but we still have double-digit drafts to pour pull pull data from. And
21:55you can get access to this NFFC data right over at nffc.com. Go check it out.
22:01It's just put in NFFC ADP, it'll take you right to it, and search online championship drafts. You'll find the same data I'm finding. Uh but when you
22:10look at this one, it's sort of like Christian Watson again, we've talked about like need to have him type player. Ihmir Egbuka a
22:19little bit higher, has that sort of steam. Christian Watson, you're seeing the same sort of steam where you're seeing a lot of fantasy analysts coming
22:26out and making Christian Watson one of their guys for this year, one of their flag plants for this year. The idea
22:32being that the Green Bay Packers have to change what they're doing a little bit.
22:37They have to be a little bit more pass-happy after the last two seasons ending in major disappointment. You've also got the Josh Jacobs concerns, with
22:45Jacobs obviously having looming off-the-field stuff to deal with potentially. Now, nothing's happened with Jacobs from the NFL perspective.
22:53Everything seemed to have cooled down a little bit, but even if you're not fading Josh Jacobs because of anything off the field, he sustained a
23:01considerable amount of volume the last 2 years and it feels like this offense could be a little bit more balanced. So,
23:08enter Christian Watson. Christian Watson again, there's collective enthusiasm that he could have this massive massive season. Could Christian Watson be the
23:162026 version of 2024 Terry McLaurin and catch a bunch of touchdown passes? It feels like drafters are betting on it and you're seeing Watson going ahead of
23:28not only the banged up Malik Neighbors and that could be a takeaway here.
23:31Neighbors down to 41 overall over the last week, but you're seeing him go ahead of wide receivers like Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Jameson Williams, DJ
23:42Moore, uh some interesting team wide receiver ones, but drafters are gravitating towards Christian Watson.
23:50Again, there's variance with Watson though. You don't need to necessarily take him as highly as 40 overall. He falls all the way down to 46 overall,
23:59but he's gone as high as 33 overall. So again, if Watson is part of your draft plan in the NFFC, understand where he's going and where
24:08you need to get exposure to him. And if you're drafting in other formats, understand that some of these wide receiver heavy NFFC drafters who are
24:15very very sharp and putting a ton of money into it are embracing Christian Watson. Keeping it going, a couple more ADP takeaways, you're seeing a flip a
24:24flip occur with the Jacksonville wide receivers.
24:27Early on in ADP, you were seeing Parker Washington ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. in multiple formats, including Underdog, including NFFC, FFPC, but now you're
24:38seeing BTJ going ahead of Parker Washington. We saw it in Underdog where BTJ started going just ahead of Parker Washington. Now in the NFFC, the gap is
24:49a little bit larger. It's still extremely close.
24:52BTJ going at 51 overall, Parker Washington at 57 overall. So, two Jacksonville wide receivers going inside of the the top six rounds and both of
25:03these guys are there's enthusiasm for, but I'd say it's split. If you talk to fantasy managers that you respect, if there's some guys that you respect, uh
25:13you can go out and say who would you rather have BTJ or Parker Washington, you're seeing a number of managers make
25:19the case for Washington, a number of managers make the case for Brian Thomas Jr. I've talked about how both of these
25:25guys can be part of your game plan. I think they both could beat ADP expectations. They obviously have different pathways to get there. BTJ
25:33should be on the field in all two wide receiver sets, has the potential for a big touchdown scoring season, get a
25:39little closer to what we saw his rookie year. Parker Washington a little more interesting because five out of his last seven games played last
25:48year, he scored 18 points or more, had unbelievable usage. His usage was sort of like 2024 Chris Godwin under Liam Liam Cohen. So, Parker Washington feels
25:59like a player that is going to be maybe a little more more consistent in terms of the usage. Both of the guys though
26:06have upside in this range of drafts and I think it's an offense that we want access to. Trevor Lawrence took a major
26:12step forward last year in year one under Cohen. And all these Jaguars feel sort of affordable. Bevell Tooton goes in this range and you've got Trevor
26:21Lawrence sort of behind these big QBs.
26:25So, all these Jaguars seem like pretty affordable pieces and again, we believe in the coach. Let's talk about Josh Allen. Josh Allen's sort of on his own
26:35island here as the quarterback one. We knew this would happen. Josh Allen had to be the QB1, but when you look at just
26:42the sheer range Josh Allen's going in versus the field there it's about as massive as we've ever seen the difference between QB1 and QB2 in recent
26:53memory. Josh Allen's going about 30 spots ahead of QB2 in these NFFC formats. So, Josh Allen officially 28 spots ahead of Joe Burrow over the last
27:05week in these $350 drafts in the NFFC.
27:08He is going so much more highly than every other quarterback. Now, that being said, Josh Allen is at a range where I
27:16think he could return value. He's going at 37 overall. So, this isn't like a year where you have to use like a
27:23two-three turn pick on Josh Allen.
27:25But, I think you have to start playing the whole idea of if I take Josh Allen here, what is the opportunity cost? Am I
27:32passing up on a potential top five wide receiver? A potential top five running back?
27:39Th- Those things happen out of that range. You're talking about the three-four turn. You're talking about a top 37 pick. So, when you're talking
27:47about that high up in a draft, the running backs and wide receivers are very, very viable.
27:53You also could have get access to a Colston Loveland in that range, easily.
27:57Loveland's going lower than that. He's going 47 overall. So, you get potential tight end one overall with Colston Loveland if it all goes right. And then,
28:06you look at the Terry McLaurin, Breece Hall, we talked about Christian Watson, a bunch of other running backs, some of them a little bit dusty, but some
28:15interesting running backs there. So, I look at Josh Allen and sort of like we know Josh Allen's going to be really,
28:20really good, but he's still going really highly considering the players around him. Now, the the devil's advocate take would be Theo, be quiet. Josh Allen
28:29scores points, and I'm going to avoid any single landmine. Just leave me alone and let me take Josh Allen at 37
28:34overall. So, I get it from sort of both arguments.
28:37But, when you look at the gap between QB1 and the rest of the field, sort of makes me want to go to the rest of the
28:44field and wait a little bit at quarterback. The way that it's sort of shaking out ADP-wise, we're seeing in the NFFC, and again, this is a six-point
28:53passing format. So, some of the other formats you might play might be four-point passing touchdown leagues, but NFFC quarterbacks get a little bit
29:01more value, especially the ones that can throw for a ton of touchdown passes.
29:05But, Joe Burrow, Drake Maye, and Lamar Jackson are sort of battling it out for QB2 in this format. You also have to
29:13remember the Online Championship it's a tournament setting. So, if you get out of your league and you you qualify for the postseason, you're
29:22competing for massive prizes, and correlation, aka stacking, is important.
29:29With Cincinnati, you've got Ja'Marr Chase, you've got Tee Higgins, you've even got Chase Brown, where we oftentimes ignore correlation between a
29:39running back and a quarterback, but in this case, Chase Brown is going to be in the very consolidated touch share offense, and we expect Chase Brown to
29:46score a lot. So, drafters love building that correlation. Then you talk about Drake Maye, obviously A.J. Brown this year, a chance to build some
29:54correlation. I think Joe Burrow, one of the reasons though that he goes ahead of Maye and ahead of Lamar Jackson in this
30:01NFFC format is the touchdown pass upside. Like, could Joe Burrow go absolutely nuts and have a 50-touchdown pass season? Probably not a bet I would
30:11make, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities if this offense can reach its absolute peak, and we know
30:17the wide receivers are incredibly talented there. I Very interesting to sort of see where this this quarterback ADP is going to
30:24go. Another player scheming up is Quentin Johnston. Quentin Johnston of the L.A. Chargers. Like, we've talked about Omari and Hampton and Ladd
30:31McConkey all off season long, and if you've been following my work, a big a big shout-out to everybody who has uh started listening to the podcast that
30:39I came over to, the Rotowire podcast feed here, and a big shout out to the audience who's joined us on YouTube. If
30:46you're listening to the podcast, you can check us out on YouTube. We're doing some very cool stuff over there. And if
30:51you are watching this on YouTube, do us a favor and subscribe to the podcast feed as well. We're going to help you
30:57crush your fantasy leagues this season right here at Rotowire. But, I feel like I've been talking about Omari and Hampton Lad McConkey all off season
31:04long. Those guys have steamed up big time in terms of their ADP. You're hearing them mentioned on so many fantasy podcasts. I mean, everybody has
31:12an Omari and Hampton take. Everybody has a Lad McConkey take. But, Quentin Johnston, the NFFC drafters are pushing up. He is up to 62 overall, which is
31:22higher than in any other format right now.
31:25And it's really managers chasing the Chargers. And also, it's a little bit of a arbitrage hedge versus Lad McConkey because Quentin Johnston outscored him
31:36in multiple weeks last year. We've heard Mike McDaniel as a hype man for Quentin Johnston this off season, comparing him physically to an Andre Johnson, to a
31:45Julio Jones, um and really going out of his way to sort of hype him. I think there's enthusiasm for Quentin Johnston in that
31:52building that maybe not all fantasy managers are getting behind, but the NFFC managers certainly are. QJ up to 62 overall. You're talking about really
32:02high up there for QJ. And you're talking about three skill position Chargers inside of the first six rounds of drafts. And Justin Herbert oftentimes
32:14goes off the board as the QB5 overall in these drafts, which is just This is higher than you're seeing Herbert in
32:22Underdog, DraftKings, FFPC. The NFFC drafter is pushing Herbert up in this in this format, especially over the last week. A lot of steam with this Chargers
32:32offense. I mean, it's impossible not to like this Mike McDaniel offense right now. But, can they deliver at this price tag? You're drafting these guys this
32:40highly, then you're expecting the Chargers to be one of the best offenses in football. I think I'm there, but it's still a leap of faith because we have a
32:48new offensive coordinator. Even one we believe in in Mike McDaniel. It you really don't have a lot of room to fail
32:55here when you're paying these sort of ADP price tags. Final ADP takeaway, people love talking about backfield competitions, but one backfield
33:03competition you're hearing on some of these podcasts, people are like, "Chuba Hubbard versus Jonathan Brooks. Chuba Hubbard versus Jonathan Brooks." That
33:09ship has sailed in terms of the NFFC drafter. Jonathan Brooks is going 20 spots ahead of Chuba Hubbard over the last week in these $350 drafts. Chu uh
33:20Jonathan Brooks going at 75 overall, and you're seeing Chuba Hubbard going off the board at 95 overall. So, you talk about these sort of to shout out my guy
33:30JJ Zachariason, ambiguous backfields, not that ambiguous when it comes to the NFFC drafter. You're also seeing the same thing in Washington where you hear
33:39these podcasts where podcast hosts are not like locked into what's going on in the ADP market, or maybe they're looking at sort of
33:48mock draft ADP. In real drafts, it's Jonathan Brooks by 20 spots in ADP.
33:54Drafters are betting on not only Brooks to lead the backfield, but they're betting on a Jonathan Brooks takeover.
34:00He's going at 75 overall. He's gone as high as 64 overall, and Chuba Hubbard is just falling like a rock. A lot of fade
34:09on Chuba Hubbard right now at 95 overall, but Chuba Hubbard his low in these NFFC 350s is 108 over the last
34:19week. So, he is just dropping like a rock. Another backfield where there's really no competition here. And this is one that I think the tides have
34:27already turned for. We're seeing it on Underdog. We've seen it on DraftKings.
34:31We've seen it in FFPC, but in NFFC ADP, Rachaad White is up to 84 overall. Jacquory Croskey-Merritt has
34:40fallen big time. And Jacquory Croskey-Merritt, I think there was a lot of like discussion of Rachaad White versus Jacquory Croskey-Merritt. There
34:49is a continual fade of Jacquory Croskey-Merritt. Remember, this is a PPR format. So, Rachaad White absolutely looks like the odds-on favorite to lead
35:00the Washington backfield in catches this year. And Rachaad White has three seasons with at least 50 catches in his career. Drafters are betting on it. If
35:10you enjoyed this show, make sure you hit that subscribe button. If you're listening to the podcast, if you're watching this on YouTube, do the same.
35:17We've got you covered all off-season long at RotoWire. I'm Theo Gremminger, lead fantasy analyst. Use my code Theo15 for access to all of my content right
35:27over at rotowire.com. You're going to get access to my rankings, my articles, and all of the amazing tools and projections that we have to offer you at
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