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10 League-Winning WR & TE Draft Targets for Fantasy Football 2026 with Jacob Gibbs

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 9 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 5, 2026
Published
Sun, July 5, 2026
35
Player insights
33
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownRome OdunzeAmon-Ra St. BrownAshton JeantyBo NixBrian Thomas Jr.Brock BowersCalvin RidleyCeeDee LambChris GodwinCole KmetColston LovelandCourtland SuttonD.J. Moore
Player analysis

Player insights

35

A.J. Brown

PositiveValue1:37

Jacob Gibbs ranks A.J. Brown 13th overall, ahead of Justin Jefferson, Drake London, and Nico Collins, and considers him worthy of selection over elite running backs like Ashton Jeanty, Jamarion Hampton, and Jonathan Taylor. Brown's ADP has surged significantly: locked in the top 18 overall in FFPC, went 8th overall in a recent NFFC $350 contest, and is steaming up in the middle of the second round on Underdog. Gibbs emphasizes that if Brown is close to his pre-injury form, the pairing with Drake May could produce one of the top-scoring players at any position. Brown ranks third all-time in yards per route run (behind only Puka Nacua and Tyreek Hill) and first among wide receivers in yards per route run from under center (4.4 YPRR). He posted a single-season yards per route run rate above 3.0 with the Eagles just one year ago, placing him among only nine wide receivers ever to achieve that mark. Gibbs projects Brown will benefit significantly from the Patriots' under-center and play-action heavy scheme under Josh McDaniels, which historically boosts efficiency for elite playmakers. Brown's transition to New England pairs elite per-route efficiency with a full-time role (versus Stefon Diggs' 68% route rate), positioning him for top-10 fantasy points per route run production plus red-zone upside (career 34% end-zone target share versus Diggs' 8% last year). Moving to the Patriots with no meaningful target competition (Romeo Doubs is the only other option with a well-defined, limited role), Brown maintains alpha wide receiver one status despite having played alongside DeVonta Smith (arguably the best WR2 in the NFL) and Dallas Goedert (elite pass-catching tight end) in Philadelphia. Gibbs emphasizes that Brown's role versatility—he can win all over the field, not just in the slot like Diggs—means he will consolidate multiple role-player looks into one player, maximizing target volume and red-zone opportunity concentration. Gibbs rejects the narrative that Brown's 2024 season represented a meaningful decline; while Brown didn't look quite like himself on film, he still averaged over 2 yards per route run (elite efficiency), created significant yards after contact, and maintained massive first-down per route run rates and first-read target rates. In context, the entire Eagles offense fell off (DeVonta Smith also had a down year), yet Brown remained more efficient than Smith while playing through injury. Gibbs characterizes Brown as a clear-cut alpha WR1 entering 2025, not a declining asset, and projects he could lead the receiver position in scoring.

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PositiveProjection8:08

Despite playing through injury in Philadelphia, AJ Brown demonstrated superior efficiency to DeVonta Smith, maintaining massive first-down-per-route-run rate and first-read target rates that mark him as a clear-cut alpha wide receiver one. Moving to New England with Drake May—the best quarterback he's ever had—in a situation with no target competition and likely the best target share of his career, Jacob Gibbs projects he could lead the receiver position in scoring.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NegativeValue2:36

Amon-Ra St. Brown is ranked directly ahead of A.J. Brown in Jacob Gibbs's wide receiver rankings, serving as a comparative benchmark for Brown's 13th overall ranking.

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Ashton Jeanty

NegativeValue2:42

Jacob Gibbs frames A.J. Brown as a potential draft consideration over elite running backs like Ashton Jeanty, suggesting Brown's upside may warrant selection ahead of premium RB options.

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Bo Nix

NegativeProjection27:23

Jacob Gibbs highlights Bo Nix's deep-ball accuracy concerns as a limiting factor for his receivers' upside. Nix ranked 34th out of 39 QBs in catchable ball rate on throws of 10+ air yards, with only Shedeur Sanders and a few others ranking worse. Gibbs notes the consistency issues persisted across Nix's two seasons, with some good throws mixed with many bad ones downfield. This QB limitation is cited as the primary reason Gibbs had initially ranked Waddle lower (WR23) despite his elite talent, though Gibbs is reconsidering given Denver's offensive scheme improvements.

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Brian Thomas Jr.

NegativeRole37:06

Brian Thomas Jr. is stuck on the outside in Jacksonville's offense, which limits his fantasy appeal compared to Parker Washington. His outside alignment reduces catch-and-run opportunities and manufactured carry upside that the team is utilizing for Washington. The Jaguars' offensive scheme under Liam Cohen appears to favor catch-and-run type receivers and design runs, which limits BTJ's role relative to Washington's versatility. ADP has converged between BTJ and Parker Washington, but Washington's slot role and usage pattern make him the more fantasy-friendly option.

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Brock Bowers

PositiveValue13:13

Jacob Gibbs identifies Brock Bowers alongside wide receivers as league-winning draft targets in round two, describing them as 'really really fun clicks right now' in the current draft environment.

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Calvin Ridley

PositiveValue41:22

Calvin Ridley is part of a double-tap strategy with Parker Washington; Jacob Gibbs argues that pairing both Jaguars receivers could yield two players that beat their ADP by 10 spots, potentially returning a WR2 and flex play without paying an exceedingly high draft cost. The Jaguars are priced to succeed across multiple receivers.

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CeeDee Lamb

PositiveValue15:01

Jacob Gibbs ranks CeeDee Lamb at 7th overall, slightly lower than historical ADP, and expresses more confidence in Lamb than George Pickens (14th overall) despite seeing them similarly in talent. Gibbs notes some smart analysts rank Lamb very highly in traditional spots but prefers his 7th-overall ranking.

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Chris Godwin

NegativeRole35:45

Chris Godwin's health and remaining production are a key variable in Emeka Abuka's target-share ceiling in Tampa Bay. Jacob Gibbs frames Godwin as a potential ADP beater if he maintains higher-than-anticipated usage, which would constrain Abuka's opportunities; conversely, if Godwin shows regression given his injury history and age, it would support a potential 150-target season for Abuka in the McVay system.

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Cole Kmet

NegativeProjection22:40

Cole Kmet posted a 130 passer rating when targeted as the first read for the Bears last year, tied with Colston Loveland and second only to Luther Burden's 135. This elite efficiency reflects his role as a primary target in Ben Johnson's system, though target volume may be constrained by the emergence of younger receivers.

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Colston Loveland

PositiveBreakout16:17

Jacob Gibbs highlights Colston Loveland as a second-year tight end with insane contingent upside in Ben Johnson's offense. Loveland was a rookie in year one of Johnson's tenure alongside offensive line development (Kalen Wimbs in year two), and now enters year two with a full offseason and system familiarity. The backloaded rookie production suggests significant year-two growth potential. Loveland posted a 130 passer rating when targeted as the first read for the Bears last year, tied with Cole Kmet and second only to Luther Burden's 135. This elite efficiency metric, combined with his second-year development in Ben Johnson's system, suggests strong projection upside as target volume increases. Gibbs suggests that while all three Bears pass catchers (Loveland, Burden, and Roma Odunze) could potentially produce, at least two of the three will likely eat in fantasy, with Loveland and Burden being the most likely candidates to capture unexpectedly high target share and ceiling outcomes.

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Courtland Sutton

NegativeRole24:25

Jacob Gibbs dismisses the take that Courtland Sutton and Jaylen Waddle will produce similarly as "laughable," citing Waddle's youth, talent level, and the Broncos' Super Bowl aspirations. Gibbs notes that Bo Nix has struggled throwing downfield, ranked 34th out of 39 QBs in catchable ball rate on throws of 10+ air yards, which is problematic for Sutton's deep-ball upside. Waddle is expected to receive the manufactured touches and catch-and-run opportunities in Sean Payton's scheme, positioning him as the primary beneficiary of Denver's offensive efficiency improvements.

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D.J. Moore

NegativeRole24:00

DJ Moore has departed the Bears. With Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus gone and no significant target-earning additions, the Bears' receiver room now centers on Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and other secondary options, creating a clear path to elevated usage for second-year receivers.

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Drake London

NegativeProjection11:07

With Kevin Stefanski taking over the Falcons offense and improved coaching staff from Cleveland, Drake London faces minimal wide receiver target competition (Zachariah Branch as second option, Kyle Pitts as pass-catcher). London averaged 16.5 points per game in 2024 and 16.8 PPG in 2023 (including down weeks post-injury), with three consecutive weeks as WR1 overall and one WR5 week. Jacob Gibbs projects London toward a career year with 30%+ target share and expects London to capture easy-button PPR looks given Tua's capabilities, citing London's alpha WR presence and age (under 25) as indicators his best fantasy football is ahead. However, Gibbs' co-host expresses nervousness about London despite his talent, citing Atlanta's limited offensive ceiling and floor risk. Concerns include uncertain passing volume in a run-heavy offense, potential for limited passing TDs/yards, and historical precedent (Justin Jefferson's floor collapse in limited offenses). While London had 39% first-read target rate when healthy and highest single-season target-per-route-run rate of any receiver drafted since 2017, the co-host lacks confidence in the Falcons offense and won't draft him with prior conviction.

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Drake Maye

PositiveRole3:04

Jacob Gibbs identifies Drake May as a primary reason to target A.J. Brown, noting that May is the best quarterback and passer Brown has ever played with. Gibbs counters contrarian takes that May spreads the ball around and lacks a kingmaker reputation, arguing instead that May's system will feature more play-action and under-center looks that align with Brown's elite per-route production profile.

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Emeka Egbuka

NegativeSleeper31:43

Jacob Gibbs has discussed Emeka Egbuka as a potential league winner on multiple RotoWire shows and is higher on him than Ryan Heath and in line with Scott Barrett on ceiling projection. The key concern is a 58% catchable target rate on throws over the middle of the field—by far the lowest in the league (next lowest is 72%)—compared to Baker Mayfield's 80% rate to other receivers. However, this outcome was driven by injury circumstances: his offensive line got hurt, he got hurt, and his quarterback got hurt. The upside is that Egbuka demonstrated the ability to win downfield, which is impressive and suggests his bread-and-butter over-the-middle slot role can rebound with health and improved quarterback play.

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George Pickens

NegativeValue15:01

Jacob Gibbs ranks George Pickens at 14th overall, well ahead of ADP, and sees him similarly to CeeDee Lamb (7th overall) but with less confidence. Gibbs deliberately ranked Pickens lower to avoid misleading followers into drafting him in round one when he's easily available in round two, suggesting strong value at his current ADP.

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Ihmir Smith-Marsette

NegativeProjection22:40

Ihmir Smith-Marsette posted an 84 passer rating when targeted as the first read for the Bears last year, the lowest among the team's primary targets, reflecting his limited role in Ben Johnson's offensive hierarchy.

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Jahan Dotson

PositiveUsage14:04

Jahan Dotson posted a 9% target-per-route-run rate last year, indicating minimal volume efficiency despite running routes. Jacob Gibbs cited this as a cautionary example of low efficiency in the Falcons offense, using it as context for understanding target competition dynamics in Atlanta.

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Jakobi Meyers

NegativeBust42:12

Jakobi Meyers is the Jaguars receiver that scares Jacob Gibbs most; despite being a professional who has drawn targets at every level of his career, his role in the Jaguars' offense is uncertain and he represents a bust risk relative to the league-winning upside of Ridley and Washington.

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Jameson Williams

NegativeProjection20:07

Used as a player comparison for Luther Burden's potential profile; Gibbs describes Burden as potentially combining Amon-Ra St. Brown's schemed opportunities with Jameson Williams' explosiveness, suggesting Burden could offer a blend of easy looks and explosive upside under Ben Johnson.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveBreakout24:25

Jacob Gibbs identifies Jaylen Waddle as a league-winning candidate in Denver's pass-heavy offense after the Broncos traded a first, third, and fourth-round pick to acquire him. Gibbs notes Waddle checks all statistical boxes that correlate to future fantasy scoring; he's coming around on Waddle as a strong pick despite initially ranking him WR23, citing the potential for expanded skill-set usage in a pass-heavy system. Waddle is positioned to receive manufactured touches and catch-and-run opportunities similar to Jameson Williams' role, with Sean Payton's coaching staff emphasizing efficiency-boosting schemes (pre-snap motion, play-action, under-center drops). Gibbs compares the situation to Josh Allen adding Stefon Diggs in year three, calling it "pretty high praise." The Broncos ranked fourth in pass rate over expectation last year and ninth in WR fantasy points. Waddle is WR13 in yards per route run and WR12 in first-down per route run over the past three seasons despite a WR25 target-per-route-run rate, indicating elite efficiency with low target volume. If his target rate increases from 23% to 25–26%, his elite efficiency could translate to significant volume upside.

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Jonathan Taylor

NegativeValue2:42

Jacob Gibbs frames A.J. Brown as a potential draft consideration over elite running backs like Jonathan Taylor, suggesting Brown's upside may warrant selection ahead of premium RB options.

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Justin Jefferson

NegativeValue2:42

Jacob Gibbs recently pushed A.J. Brown ahead of Justin Jefferson in his rankings, citing significantly more upside in Brown's situation.

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Luther Burden

PositiveBreakout16:09

Jacob Gibbs identifies Luther Burden as a year-two breakout wide receiver candidate, describing it as "almost illegal not to include" him given his elite skill set and league-winning upside. Burden's profile combines elite after-catch ability (only he and Omar Cooper Jr. have avoided tackle rate above 30% at collegiate level past three draft classes; only Rashee Rice averaged more yards after catch per reception last year), confirmed downfield competence (led Bears in receiving yards on 20+ air yard targets with 6 catches for 233 yards on just 7 targets vs. Rondale Moore's 23 targets and DJ Moore's 22 targets with fewer receiving yards), and elite efficiency (yards per route run just below Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua). Gibbs projects potential for 3+ yards per route run if he gets broken plays or Ben Johnson's schemed opportunities. Burden's analytical and athletic profile, combined with Johnson's tendency to get playmakers the ball and create yards after catch, makes him a strong breakout candidate. With DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus departing and no significant target-earning additions, Burden is positioned to see increased offensive role and target share in year two. Burden posted a 135 passer rating when targeted as the first read last year (highest on the Bears), but only received 33 first-read targets. In three games where Burden had at least a 25% first-read target rate, he averaged 96 yards, suggesting substantial upside if target distribution increases.

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Nico Collins

NegativeValue2:42

Jacob Gibbs recently pushed A.J. Brown ahead of Nico Collins in his rankings, citing significantly more upside in Brown's situation.

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Olamide Zaccheaus

PositiveProjection22:40

Olamide Zaccheaus posted an 84 passer rating when targeted as the first read for the Bears last year, the lowest among primary targets. He received 33 first-read targets, the same as Luther Burden. His departure from the Bears opens target-share expansion opportunity for Burden and other receivers in the offense.

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Parker Washington

PositiveValue36:26

Parker Washington became the focal point of Jacksonville's passing game late in the season, posting 18+ PPR points in five of his last seven games including the playoffs. Jacob Gibbs highlights the correct price point and fantasy-friendly usage in the Liam Cohen slot role, with the team discussing moving him around and manufacturing carries. Washington has a much more fantasy-friendly game than Brian Thomas Jr. given his outside alignment; he's built like a running back (short, compact frame) with first-percentile arms and 91st-percentile hands, making him elite in contested catch situations and catch-and-run opportunities. His reception perception charting shows success rate on post routes higher than Jackson Smith-Njigba's and nearly as high on digs and curls, though JSN is superior on quickness/cutting routes. Washington wins with physicality and body control on jump balls and after the catch. If the Jaguars offense continues to perform well under Liam Cohen (who engineered the Buccaneers to second in fantasy points in 2024 and the Jaguars to ninth last year), Washington could be a huge part of the offense in year two, with his consistency catching the football positioning him as a potential league-winner if the offense maintains its trajectory.

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Puka Nacua

NegativeProjection4:30

Puka Nacua is cited as one of only two wide receivers ahead of A.J. Brown in all-time yards per route run, establishing Brown's elite historical per-route production ranking.

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Rome Odunze

NegativeInjury21:21

Jacob Gibbs is about in line with ADP for Roma Odunze but expresses concern about his foot injury recovery. Odunze has indicated that things feel different post-injury, and Gibbs worries about potential setbacks or re-aggravation, which could shift value dynamics if complications arise. His emergence is contingent on full recovery, whereas second-year receivers Colston Loveland and Luther Burden offer more reliable upside in the Bears offense.

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NegativeInjury21:21

Jacob Gibbs is about in line with ADP for Rome Odunze but expresses concern about his foot injury recovery. Odunze has indicated that things feel different post-injury, and Gibbs worries about potential setbacks or re-aggravation, which could shift value dynamics if complications arise. Rome Odunze posted a 110 passer rating when targeted as the first read for the Bears last year, a solid rate reflecting his role as a primary target. However, his foot injury recovery and the emergence of second-year receivers Colston Loveland and Luther Burden may limit his target growth in year two.

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Stefon Diggs

NegativeProjection4:00

Jacob Gibbs cites Stefon Diggs's 2024 production as a comparable benchmark for A.J. Brown's potential with Drake May. Diggs ranked top 8-10 in per-route fantasy points production (yards and first downs per route), a metric that has historically been Brown's strength throughout his career.

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Tyreek Hill

NegativeProjection4:30

Tyreek Hill is cited as one of only two wide receivers ahead of A.J. Brown in all-time yards per route run, establishing Brown's elite historical per-route production ranking.

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Zachariah Branch

NegativeRole12:05

Zachariah Branch identified as the second most targeted wide receiver on the Falcons, establishing target competition context for Drake London's 30%+ target share projection.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

689
0:05>> Identifying league winning values at the wide receiver and tight end position, Theo Gremminger, lead fantasy analyst right here at RotoWire, joined today by
0:13my guy Jacob Gibbs of CBS. Jacob, you've got a list of players that you think are fantastic targets at ADP that have a
0:22chance to win fantasy football leagues.
0:25Some of these guys are available in very affordable ADP range right now. I also have a couple of guys as well. What are
0:33you doing this time of the year? How is your summer going?
0:37>> Hey Theo, so good to be here, man. Uh congrats on the new gig. Um big shout out to you and all the people at
0:41RotoWire who get you and Ian Hartitz coming over bringing fantastic content.
0:45Really looking forward to all of that.
0:46Um I've got a new YouTube channel that me and my buddy Dan Schneier have launched over here for CBS Sports. It's
0:52called Beyond the Box Score. So, we go super super in-depth on all the players, all the coaches, all the situations around the league that are going to
0:59potentially shape fantasy football this year. And you asked me what I wanted to talk about today, I said fantasy league winners. It's July. It's It's time, man.
1:06Um and so, yeah, I've got about three pages of notes today. And the first page is all about one player. So, that's
1:11that's Beyond the Box Score to a T. If you've got time for all of that, go check us out.
1:14>> Yeah, I'm going to be joining Jacob on Beyond the Box Score uh soon. Highly recommend all the work that Jacob's had.
1:20Like, I've had you on a bunch of podcasts at this point. You are one of the sharpest guys in the industry. And I
1:24think you do a fantastic job of blending like analytical takes with your own film watching. And really all the edges you
1:31can define uh Jacob. And your hit rate is outstanding. So, let's go ahead and start it out. One player that is
1:37steaming up like an absolute rocket ship in ADP is A.J. Brown. Brown was traded to New England this off-season.
1:45Everybody knows that. But recently, his ADP is just It's through the roof. We have not seen him fall out of the second
1:52round in FFPC drafts um really ever. And he's living usually inside the top 18 overall picks in FFPC.
2:00NFFC, which is a start three wide receiver format, he's locked in. I saw him go eight overall in a recent NFFC
2:08$350 entry contest. Underdog, he's steamed up significantly as well, living inside of like the middle of the second round. And there's more and more
2:18enthusiasm when it comes to Brown. What are you seeing? What are some of the key points for drafting A.J. Brown in this
2:24range? Little bit of fades of A.J. Brown last year, but it feels like it he's back.
2:30>> Yeah, so I've got A.J. Brown up to 13th overall, and I've just like right behind CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown in my
2:36wide receiver rankings. I did push him recently ahead of Justin Jefferson, Drake London, Nico Collins. I think there's more upside here with him
2:43significantly, so then those wide receivers. So to me, it's the discussion of like do you want to consider taking him over somebody like Ashton Jeanty,
2:51Jamarion Hampton, Jonathan Taylor, like those types of running backs.
2:55Um, and I think that he might warrant it, man. I think that there's a chance if A.J. Brown is close to himself, and I think I've got a
3:01lot of reasons I told you I've got one page of notes on player, it's him.
3:04Um, if he's anywhere close to that, and this is what it could be with Drake May here, this pairing could be insanely
3:10productive. Like one of the top scoring players at any position is basically where I'm at with A.J. B.
3:15>> Yeah.
3:15>> want to hear the notes?
3:16>> No, I I I absolutely want to hear the notes. I I will add I'll add that my in my rankings, I have A.J. Brown 16th
3:22overall. So we're pretty close, but you're even higher than I am. Um, and I love that you bring up Drake May because
3:29it's almost like no one's talking about Drake May as one of the main reasons to take A.J. Brown. There's even been some
3:35sort of contrarian takes that uh, Drake May likes to spread the ball around. Um, and it's not a it's not a quarterback
3:44who is associated with really keying on a top target. Drake May's looked at as sort of a stud talent himself, but he
3:52hasn't ever had the kingmaker reputation. You think that could change this year?
3:58>> I think so. Um so, I think you you just look at the the Stefon Diggs rates from last year. Um I don't know if people
4:03realize this, but Stefon Diggs was like top eight, top 10 in per route rates in terms of fantasy points per route,
4:08targets, or not quite targets, but yards and um first downs produced. A.J. Brown, that's been his jam like all along the
4:16way. He's been one of the most ridiculous per route producers we've ever seen. So, he's one of nine wide receivers with a single season yard per
4:22route run rate above three during the time that I've got that data available.
4:25That was with the Eagles just one year ago. So, we're not far removed from elite elite production. He's wide receiver three in yards per route run
4:33during his time in the NFL behind only Puka Nacua and Tyreek Hill. And he's wide receiver one in yards per route run
4:38from under center, which I think is important here as he makes his transition because not only is he going to be playing with the best quarterback,
4:44best passer by far that he's ever played with, he's also going to benefit from a lot of the uh under the hood type stuff
4:50that the super nerdy fantasy analysts like to look at. Um and one of those being under center type plays, play action type plays, plays where you're
4:57selling the run to the defense and able to get your best playmakers in advantageous situations. I think we saw the Patriots and Josh McDaniels do that
5:05really well last year. And when he's been able to do that, A.J. Brown has been really good. So, to put up this
5:10over three yards per route run in Philadelphia is wildly impressive for a number of reasons. One, they use a ton of shotgun. And so, they also use a ton
5:17of three receivers. And so, they're not getting the traditional you know, McShanahanian type of play caller boost there. The other thing is,
5:26he's playing alongside DeVonta Smith.
5:28He's playing alongside Dallas Goedert, who's a very good pass-catching tight end. Dallas and DeVonta Smith is maybe the best wide receiver two in the NFL.
5:34And still, he's giving you this alpha target domination and elite efficiency.
5:39And then yeah, when under center, 4.4 yards per route run for A.J.B. Puka Nacua is next at 4.3. Then it's a
5:46massive drop-off to Nico Collins at 3.7.
5:48So, we see a lot of the best yard per route run rates produced across the league in these types of offenses. A.J.
5:54Brown's like truly one of the few exceptions. Early in his career, under Arthur Smith, they were doing a lot of this, and so with the per route data
6:00gets out of control for him and Corey Davis.
6:02Not really lately, not really what we've seen. And so, I'm really curious what it's going to look like as he moves to
6:08this efficiency-boosting type of situation because, like I said, Stefon Diggs, why does he retain in fantasy points per route run last and that was
6:16with only four touchdowns. So, he's not getting like a boost from touchdowns to to boost his efficiency. He got there basically on yards and catches. He had
6:231,000 yards in a part-time role. Stefon Diggs only had a 68% route rate last year. The Patriots traded a first-round pick to get A.J. Brown. I think we're
6:31going to see A.J.B. in a full-time role and I think he's going to score more than Stefon Diggs. So, Stefon Diggs is
6:39at four four touchdowns for him at a 19% red-zone target share. He had only 8% of the end-zone targets in 17 games for the
6:48Patriots. So, it's not that I think A.J.
6:50Brown is like going to just step into the Stefon Diggs role necessarily. It's just that we've seen a wide receiver one
6:55be hyper-efficient in this offense, and that's in a more specific type of a role, whereas I think A.J. Brown doesn't need to be in the slot, doesn't have to
7:02have role catering the way that Diggs did. He can kind of win all over the place. He can kind of be an amalgamation
7:07of like the the Diggs and the Mack Hollins or Kayshon Boutte or whatever.
7:10Like, a lot of those like role-player type of looks that went around, I think are going to be funneled to this one player because he's the best
7:17on the team at all of those things. He has a freaking career target share of 34% when you look at like the end-zone targets in the games
7:25that he's played, it's never been below 21%. That was A.J. Brown's rookie season. His career rate's 34%. Diggs' rate last year was 8%.
7:33And so, what I'm saying is like top-10 receiver in fantasy points per route run for Diggs without the touchdowns.
7:38What if A.J. Brown is as good or better than Diggs outside of the 20, and then he also gets the red zone end zone stuff. And I think
7:45it's totally realistic to think that he is as good if not better than Diggs cuz Diggs had kind of seen a fall off and
7:50then all of a sudden he had this big year with New England.
7:52AJ Brown, man, like people point towards last year and say that it was a fall off for him.
7:59I don't really see that. Like he didn't look quite like himself on film, but he still was creating a lot of yards after
8:04contact. That's born out if you look at like the fantasy points that he had this week, they chart that. He looks really
8:08good on a per opportunity basis.
8:10He also averaged over two yards per route run still. Really good. Like not quite up to his standards, but when you
8:16consider that the efficiency for the offense fell off across the board, DeVonta Smith had a down year, too, you know? AJ Brown still like he was more
8:22efficient than Smith while playing through an injury in the situation with Philly just not being able to produce very much.
8:28He still had massive first down per route run rate, still had massive first read target rates. Like everything that you want
8:35points towards him looking like a clear-cut alpha wide receiver one.
8:39And now he goes to a situation where there's really no target competition.
8:44Like we know exactly who Romeo Doubs is.
8:47I think Romeo Doubs is exactly who you want to be your if you're like looking to pile up targets and fantasy points,
8:54you want Romeo Doubs on your team. He's a great teammate. Look at what Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Christian Watson have done playing alongside Romeo
9:01Doubs who's just good enough to like get the defense's attention and run those big boy routes on the outside and pose
9:05an actual threat down the field, but not somebody who's going to get I mean we've never seen his target per route run rate
9:10above 21%. We have four years of data now. Doubs has been between 19% and 21% in each of those seasons. I think we
9:17know who he is.
9:18We've got AJ Brown in the situation where it's probably all going to funnel through him as long as he can handle it
9:24and it could be a ton, right? Like that we've never seen him in a pass-heavy offense. He's always been in these run
9:28first offenses. Now he goes to the Patriots with Drake May, the best quarterback he's ever had, and he might see the best target share he's ever had.
9:35Like I I it wouldn't surprise me at all if A.J. Brown just leads the receiver position in scoring. Basically, is where
9:40I've planted.
9:42>> Yeah, no, I think you're right. And I think if you want to take like a like a big picture look at it, there's some parallels here
9:49between Derrick Henry going to Baltimore and A.J. Brown ending up in New England.
9:55Sort of the trajectory of their career sort of changes a little bit. They fall into a new offense that is going to
10:01heavily feature them and it sort of prolongs their career in a way. And I think also if we want to look at it from
10:07a big picture perspective, when Josh McDaniels was asked like who does A.J.
10:12Brown remind you of or where's he going to fit in this offense? Everybody wanted him to say like Randy Moss or something
10:18cool like that, but he went with Rob Gronkowski. And I think when you look at Gronk and Gronk sort of being like his
10:24time with McDaniels, he was really like a weapon of mass destruction at the tight end position and the sort of touchdown equity that he brought to the
10:31table, then you add in sort of A.J.
10:33Brown with the wide receiver usage on top. Then you look at like Josh McDaniels and how has he been able to
10:38sort of fast track these alpha wide receivers? He had Randy Moss when Randy Moss had 23 touchdown catches. He was the OC for that team. And he was also
10:48the OC in Davante Adams' first year as a Raider where Davante Adams had led the NFL in touchdown catches with 14. So,
10:55I'm all over A.J. Brown. Again, I have him highly in my rankings, not as highly as Jacob does. And if you want to access
11:01to my rankings, go to rotowire.com, use the code Theo15, it gets you 15% off.
11:07One player that I have even higher than A.J. Brown though, Jacob, and I'm curious your thoughts on him, is Drake London. And Drake London has
11:15been sort of one of my key targets. And I think that the the the A.J. Brown and Drake London sort of converging at ADPs
11:22is a separate conversation. It sort of makes it a little bit more open-minded to those two-for-twos in your draft prep where start out with a running back and
11:31then you're able to get sort of one of these guys in round two, but I sort of share your enthusiasm with London. Does
11:36not have the quarterback quality of Drake May. We certainly have some hurdles to overcome when it comes to Tua Tagovailoa, but I look at Kevin
11:43Stefanski taking over this offense. I look at Tommy Reese coming over. It's a coaching staff that's like really improved at form where they brought over
11:51the staff from Cleveland. I think that they're going to lean on Drake London in a tremendous way in this passing game.
11:57Bijan Robinson obviously is a workhorse alpha running back, um a real bellcow, and has the ability to catch a lot of
12:05passes himself, but when you look at the wide receiver target competition for London, it's really non-existent. I think Zachariah Branch will be the
12:12second most targeted wide receiver on this team. Kyle Pitts will continue to be a big factor, but Drake London it feels like we're heading towards a
12:21career year. Averaged 16 and 1/2 points per game in 2024. Averaged 16.8 points last year, and that number also includes sort of those down weeks after he came
12:33back from injury. London had three weeks in a row essentially where he was a wide receiver one overall in the week. He
12:40also had a wide receiver five week, and I just look at London. I'm seeing a guy that I would would expect to have a
12:4530-plus percent target share. Everything sort of gets funneled into him. I wonder if we see a little bit more easy button
12:52PPR looks to sort of take advantage of what Tua can actually accomplish, but I think Derek Drake London is such a alpha
13:00wide receiver presence on the outside, and I look at everything sort of lining up for him. He's still not even 25 years
13:07old. It feels like his best fantasy football is ahead of him. Uh so, yeah, man. Wide re- wide re- it's a wide
13:13receiver round in round two. Wide receivers and Brock Bowers, those guys are really really fun clicks right now.
13:19>> For sure. I I'm always high on London, um but I'm getting a little bit nervous this year. Um I'm leaning more towards
13:26A.J. Brown or George Pickens. I think there's more upside there. Jefferson, London, Nico Collins, I get a little bit nervous about just cuz I don't have a
13:35ton of confidence in those offenses and Atlanta in particular scares me.
13:39Um, they do have, you know, the the two quarterbacks who who could like if one fails, maybe the other gives them
13:45something.
13:46Um, I just don't know how high the ceiling ultimately is because I think it might be a limited number of passing touchdowns and yards
13:54and everything produced first downs produced in this offense.
13:57And so if that's the case, I I'm also a little bit concerned about the floor just cuz I think we saw it with Justin
14:03Jefferson, even with the best receiver in the league, if it gets ugly enough, it could be a huge big loss to to be
14:09taking them this high in the draft. And so I haven't actually like when it's when it comes down to it and it's time
14:14to pick London, I'm not picking him with the same confidence I used to and that that scares me a little bit cuz I know
14:19he's so good. Like freaking 39% first read target rate when he was healthy last year looked like the most dominant target hog in the or one of them and
14:27that's how he's been all along the way.
14:28USC had the highest single season target per route run rate of any receiver drafted during the time I have the data
14:33available which today is back to 2017.
14:34Like Drake London is that dude and like you said, the receivers next to him are Jahan Dotson and Alondes Zaccheaus and
14:41maybe Zach Branch who don't know if he can do more than the gadgety stuff.
14:44Jahan Dotson had a freaking 9% target per route run rate last year, dude. Like he's out there running wind sprints.
14:49Like I I get it. The volume could be massive, but I am a little bit nervous about the offense is basically where
14:53I've landed.
14:55>> No, I think that's fair and I think it's a little bit baked in because I think if we had a better quarterback situation, I
15:01think London would be going alongside of even the Amon-Ra St. Brown type guys in round one. Um, you brought up George
15:07Pickens and he certainly George Pickens certainly could have been on this list.
15:10I'm well ahead of ADP with Pickens as well and I have CeeDee Lamb a little bit lower than ADP. I've seen some very
15:18smart people ranking CeeDee Lamb very, very highly sort of where we're comfortable see where we're used to seeing CD Lamb like over the
15:26years. Um but I have Pickens and him not too far apart and a little bit closer than ADP. Just curious without diving
15:34into it, how close is Pickens to Lamb for you right now?
15:39>> I see them similarly. I just feel a lot more confident in Lamb. So, I've got Lamb at seventh overall and Pickens at
15:4414th overall and they used to be like I think like seventh and ninth or something. And then I realized I there's
15:50no reason I'd pick Pickens that high. I can get him in the second round easily.
15:52So, I don't want to like mislead any of the people who follow my rankings and get them clicking Pickens around one when they don't need to. But
15:58I think that you can make a case for him being right up there with Lamb.
16:03>> 14th overall is still very high for Pickens. That's a little higher than I have him. One other wide receiver, I
16:09mean when we're talking about year two breakout wide receivers, it feels like it's almost illegal not to include Luther Burden. I think everybody's sort
16:17of open-minded to him having a ceiling outcome season. The one issue is drafters are kind of deciding some drafters are deciding
16:26between a Loveland and then a Burden and then there's still the Roma Odunze crowd out there. What would a season ceiling a
16:34season What would a ceiling season look like for you when it comes to Luther Burden?
16:40>> We really don't know. It could get out of control. Um so, the first thing I would say is I think all of them can eat
16:45potentially or at least two out of the three.
16:48Um I wouldn't compare it to the Bears offense last year in terms of tendencies, run to pass, pass rate over expectation, all that stuff to the
16:54Detroit offenses and those Detroit offenses were producing multiple pass catchers that were really good basically every season and they were more run
17:01heavy than the Bears offense was last year. Um and they had Amon-Ra St. Brown soaking up 30% of the targets. Like there's no
17:08St. Brown in this offense that we know of. Um and so, that leaves the possibility I think that Loveland, Burden, Odunze, maybe just two out of
17:16three, but multiple of them could be really good picture fantasy. And if one of them does get an unexpectedly high target share, then the ceiling could
17:24just absolutely go through the roof, like more than than we really can even project. Um and I think that it makes
17:32the most sense that if placing a bet that one of those two who's going to do it is going to be
17:36Burden or um Loveland.
17:39In terms of the skill set for Burden, I think it's clear. I think people get it, but I just want to detail it piece by
17:44piece um so that we're not just like copy-pasting his crazy yard per out run rate on a, you know, small sample size
17:51last year. It's more about the player.
17:52It's more about the fit in the offense with Ben Johnson. It's not just that last year's numbers were crazy.
17:59Um he's just he's so good after the catch. And so like that gives him, I think, an insulated floor because Ben
18:05Johnson's going to design stuff to him, and we know how good he is. Only he and Omar Cooper Jr. have an avoided tackle
18:12rate above 30% at the collegiate level among the past three draft classes. Only Rashee Rice averaged more yards after the catch per reception last year than
18:20Burden. The crazy stat that I don't think people realize is that he was also good down the field, and that's something we didn't know. We didn't have
18:26confirmation of coming out of Mizzou, but if you watch the film on the few opportunities he got to play outside, it
18:31felt like he could do that. And I do think we got confirmation of that in year one. So he's one of seven players
18:37with a 30% or higher route win rate against man coverage per the Fantasy Points data suite. If you look at the rest of the list, they're
18:44all really good players.
18:46Um pretty small sample size for Burden, but when he got to face man coverage, he did really well. The other thing I would
18:50point out is he led the Bears in receiving yards on targets that traveled 20 or more yards in the air past the
18:58line of scrimmage. So on throws of 20 or more air yards, Luther led the team in receiving yards. He only had seven of
19:03them. He caught six for 233 yards.
19:06Rondale Moore had 23 of those targets.
19:08DJ Moore had 22 of those targets, and they both had fewer receiving yards on those targets down the field than Burden. I think Burden's better
19:16getting open. I think he's potentially better at going to get the ball, and he's clearly better with the ball in his hands than those players.
19:24And so, that all has me really excited because it can result in this crazy efficiency.
19:29I do think last year's yard per route run rate is a bit of an aberration, you know, he's just below Jaxon Smith-Njigba
19:34and Puka Nacua. But, the point being that with this type of equation, someone who can create with the ball in his
19:40hands, create extra yards, and can win down the field, if you get a good run out, if things work well, where he gets some broken
19:47plays and stuff like that, or Ben Johnson, potentially the best schemer in the whole league, draws him up wide-open plays, like we saw in the flea flicker,
19:55then all of a sudden you can average 3 yards per route run, you know? And that's That's why you have to if you're
20:00not drafting Burden, you have to, I think, have a compelling reason why not, because that's a really, really high-upside proposition to be passing
20:08on. Like, he's one of There's a reason that people are so high on him. He's one of the most obvious, in theory, league winners on the board
20:14at any position.
20:17>> Yeah, it's interesting because, you know, people love to gravitate towards, let's find a comparison to him in former Ben Johnson offenses. And, you know,
20:26people love to gravitate towards what Amon-Ra St. Brown was able to accomplish with Ben Johnson. Then, you've had people like my former podcast host,
20:34Scott Barrett, sort of talk about like even Jarvis Landry had that outstanding slot usage with Ben Johnson like back in the day in Miami. Um, big shout out to
20:42Scott on that take. But, I think it's interesting, you know, the way you describe him and the way that I look at
20:47Luther Burden, it's almost like we could see a combination between Amon-Ra St.
20:52Brown and Jameson Williams, where you get the explosiveness mixed in with some of the easier looks, and he's just such a It's like the analytical profile, the
21:03athletic profile, and then just the Ben Johnson wants to get the ball in his hands and make things happen where the
21:10yac ability it's like really hard for these coaches not to gravitate towards what can he do with his ball the ball in
21:15his hands. And I think also another factor that makes me lean a little bit towards Burden is I'm about in line with
21:22ADP with Rome Odunze these days, but I do think if there's some there's an insane contingent upside with the two second year wide receiver and tight end
21:32in Loveland and Burden because I know that there's people sort of saying the right things, but a foot injury overcoming a foot injury, that sort of
21:40always sticks in the back of my mind where Odunze has talked about how things are a little different for him now. If
21:45there's any sort of you know injuries like setback when it comes to it or maybe a re-aggravation of the foot injury, like Burden and Loveland for
21:56that matter to the moon. And then it's also like we talk about play callers and just take a big step back instead of
22:01having to make these tiny little micro decisions on who to pick at ADP, just from a macro level, the trust factor
22:08that we have in Ben Johnson and just how effective this offense could be in year two considering last year Ben Johnson
22:16took over, had all these this new offensive lineman, Kalen Wimbs was in year two, breaking in Loveland, breaking in Burden, those guys were rookies,
22:24Odunze was a second year player, everyone's a year older and we think Ben Johnson might be the smartest man in the
22:29room. So, I agree with you. If you're drafting on multiple teams, you want to have access to Luther Burden. And if
22:35you're only drafting one single team, you should still be considering Luther Burden at cost.
22:40>> My favorite Bears stat is I've got the passer rating when targeted as the first read last year. And so it's 84 for Ihmir
22:48Smith-Marsette. It reads exactly as you'd expect. 84 is the passer rating when Zacchiss is the first read, 88 Cole Kmet, 100 DJ Moore, 110 Rome Odunze.
22:57That's actually a pretty good rate. 130 Cole Kmet and Loveland, 135 Luther Burden. The problem is he only had 33 first three targets, which is the same
23:06as Olamide Zaccheaus, which for all the good things we say about Ben Johnson, what the hell, man? What is that? Like, get the guy the rock. And
23:13so, I think we're going to see a lot more first three targets for him this next year. He had three games last year
23:18where he had at least a first three target rate of 25% and he averaged 96 yards in those games.
23:24>> I always wonder like in the back of my mind, it's sort of like a almost like a like a like a team culture and and
23:31establishing um you know, your your like your your whole philosophy where Ben Johnson sort of called out DJ Moore in the preseason and then he had these two
23:39very highly ranked rookies that are unbelievable talents, but we didn't see them explode out of the gate. It was more of like backloaded, especially for
23:47Loveland, and then Burden even more so, where was that a culture thing for Ben Johnson last year to lean into these
23:54like thinking about like how do I win a Super Bowl here? This is my three or four-year plan as opposed to let's just
24:00get these guys involved. So, those things in the back of my mind, but hey, all all bets are off this year. And in
24:05terms of like a run out, Burden ran about as pure as possible this offseason. DJ Moore gone, Olamide Zaccheaus gone, and the the team did
24:14nothing in terms of adding like a potential target earner. It is what it is. It's Loveland, it's Burden, it's I Don't Know Say. Let's roll the ball out
24:22and let's score a lot of points. So, really into the Chicago Bears this year.
24:25I love that you you put Jaylen Waddle on this list and I think one of the most ridiculous takes I'm seeing in in a you
24:32know, this is in a respectful way cuz I think a lot of really smart people are on this take is that the Courtland
24:38Sutton and Jaylen Waddle production will be pretty close. I think it's a little bit laughable considering the age disparity, considering the fact that
24:46Denver's going for a Super Bowl here, considering the Jaylen Waddle's really, really good at football, and the Denver Broncos just gave up a first, a third,
24:54and a fourth round pick in a draft that had a lot of receivers in it to go ahead and get Waddle. So, then you also have
25:01like Pete Carmichael sort of making a comparison between you know, Josh Allen year three and Bo Nix year three. Josh Allen adds Stefon
25:11Diggs, Bo Nix adds Jaylen Waddle. I mean, that's pretty high praise and I think that's also getting swept under the rug. Your enthusiasm level for
25:18Waddle and what do you think his fit in this offense is going to look like? He's a player where we've seen him used in a
25:24multitude of ways. You have the low A dot rookie year where he caught a million passes. You've seen him used as
25:28a deep target downfield and then you've seen him sort of coexist next to a Tyreek Hill um and and most recently sort of coexist next to a
25:37high-level pass catcher out of the backfield in in Devon Achane. How do you see this thing uh playing out and are we
25:43looking at a potential wide receiver one season?
25:46>> Yeah, I think everybody knows that Waddle has like all the talent in the world. Like he his resume is out of a
25:50superstar, basically. Um we just have seen him play with like some of the best players of his generation.
25:57Um and also play in pretty run heavy offenses. And so it hasn't really and he's been injured and so it hasn't
26:03really amounted to like that type of massive upside yet. Um but I think there's a chance that it it does. I
26:08think there's a real chance that he's a league winner. I've been coming around on him a lot. I had Ryan Heath on Beyond
26:13the Box Score and we talked about the wide receiver position and which stats correlate to future fantasy scoring and he pretty much checks all the boxes. And
26:20I think so Ryan was challenging me cuz I had Waddle down at like wide receiver 23 or something. And what I said to Ryan
26:26was basically after the first 10 or 11 receivers, the next like 10 or 15 are all interchangeable. I think there's a
26:33case to be made for any of them. Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, Ladd McConkey, Waddle, they I see them all very similarly.
26:40But I think because I just have a little bit of Bo Nix ache, I've been just leaving Waddle behind them.
26:47Um but the more that I've dug into it, I feel like this is justified. Like this excitement for Waddle and I'm coming
26:53around on him being a really strong pick. Um I've got a buddy, shout out Ethan. He said Waddle is this year's
26:58George Pickens. And I think that in a lot of ways that might be the case if Denver's offense is able to play as well
27:04as they could where we're seeing him go to a pass-heavy offense here um where he can really do a lot with the ball in his
27:11hands um and see his his skill set expanded upon. So, what is the role?
27:15I I think that Courtland Sutton is really good. First off, like on the which one's going to be the alpha. I do
27:20think Sutton is really good to those people's points.
27:23But Bo Nix has struggled throwing down the field. Um that's clear in the charting. Um so, I've been really trying to contextualize what happened with
27:32Emeka Egbuka last year. And one way I do that is like where do you think Baker Mayfield ranked out of 39 quarterbacks in throws of 10
27:39or more air yards in terms of catchable ball rate? 34th out of 39. And the only guys behind him are like Shedeur Sanders
27:45and etc.
27:47Bo Nix is one of the guys behind him where it's like, "Really? It did seem like it was a little bit better last
27:51year."
27:52But the consistency just wasn't there.
27:54There were some good throws, but there were a lot of bad throws, too. And that's kind of been the case for Nix
27:57down the field over each of his two seasons so far.
28:01I do think though we could see Waddle that and so that's that's problematic I think for Sutton at this point. I do
28:07think we'd see Waddle with all the manufactured stuff and potentially some of the over the middle um Jameson Williams type catch and run
28:12stuff. And I bring up Williams because like this is where Declan Doyle was just hanging out was with um Sean Payton. I
28:19think that this is all interesting what's happening with the coaching there. Sean Payton, you know, has been around for a long time and seen a lot of
28:24things. And we've seen him be adaptive over the past couple of years. And I think that that's really interesting cuz he's worked with two of the
28:31hot shot like young guys that get talked about the most in Declan Doyle and um the guy that they just promoted that's
28:37going to call plays this year, Webb.
28:39Um and over the past few years we've seen them use way more of the efficiency boosting stuff, more of the um dropping back from
28:48under center, play-action type stuff, more pre-snap motion at motion at the snap of the football and all that. And so, we've got all of that coming into
28:54play here that can potentially help boost the offense and the efficiency.
28:59And then, there's also the volume proposition where the Broncos were fourth in pass rate over expectation last year. They were ninth in wide
29:04receiver fantasy points. They're sixth in wide receiver fantasy points over the past two seasons combined.
29:10The hope is that we don't see Sean Payton metal and give us a weird hyper-specific Waddle role where he's in like a 70% route rate or something like
29:20he likes to do with his receivers. The hope is that he soaks up like all of the Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims stuff kind
29:26of. Um and I think that that might be the case cuz they've tried to manufacture a lot of stuff to those two
29:32guys, Franklin in particular last year, and it hasn't really resulted in a whole lot, but the expected fantasy points have been kind of crazy for Franklin and
29:41some of those guys in those ancillary roles. And I think that we might see Waddle take some of the wide receiver one type stuff
29:47in terms of working over the middle, plus a lot of the design stuff. And that, I mean, if he gets that,
29:53he's so he's wide receiver 13 in yards per route run, wide receiver 12 in first down per route run over the past three
29:59seasons. That's good, right? That's pretty good, top 12-ish. He's wide receiver 25 in targets per route run.
30:05That's the whole thing with Waddle is he's been a really efficient producer even with low target rates, low to middling target
30:12rates. And I just wonder if he gets in this situation where instead of 23% it's 25%, 26%, something like that, and the
30:20volume increases, what it might really amount to. It could be It could be a lot.
30:27>> It's very interesting, and I talked about this with Dave Klugey. Two of the wide receivers that you brought up, Jacob, have been traded wide receivers
30:34in the off-season. And that's sort of been an edge that fantasy managers have had for multiple seasons. It's sort of embracing that you brought up George
30:42Pickens you know in the in our conversation earlier we saw Pickens completely smash his ADP year before it was Jerry Judy who ended up in Cleveland
30:53and smashed his ADP finished as sort of a back end wide receiver one year before that it was DJ Moore and it's been like
31:00an edge where these traded wide receivers a lot of times the market is not baking in just how big the role and
31:08the plan the team has for them. With AJ and Waddle the fact that they gave up first round picks plus for them I think
31:16speaks volumes very interesting stuff though Waddle is a player that I think I'm going to be talking about on these pods all off season long and it's
31:23another player that I am ahead of ADP on I think he's very very good at football and I think we see another like a
31:29resurgence case for him here in Denver.
31:32Denver's also fourth overall in pass attempts last year as a team despite having really tremendous game flow and one of the best defenses in football. I
31:40think that continues I think they're going to lean into the passing game.
31:43I've talked about Emeka Egbuka as a potential league winner on multiple shows this is one where it's a little bit polarizing you know we mentioned Ryan
31:53Heath Ryan and I when I was at Fantasy Points we argued a little bit about Egbuka I think I'm a little higher than
31:58him on Egbuka Scott Barrett's also higher than him on Egbuka Scott and I were sort of in line on what a ceiling
32:05season for Egbuka could look like but I've only done a handful of shows here.
32:09At RotoWire and I've talked about Egbuka on pretty much every single one of them so I'm going to be quiet here and I'm
32:15going to ask Jacob Gibbs what you think about Emeka Egbuka and his league winning potential am I too high on him
32:21this year is he a player that you're looking at at cost or are you pivoting elsewhere?
32:26>> Well I'm actually going to be kind of quiet here too because I just put out a player profile on Egbuka with Dan
32:30Schneier we did about 25 minutes on film data everything. I'll give you a few key stats one was he had a 58% catchable
32:38target rate on throws over the middle of the field, which is by far the lowest. The next lowest is 72% in the league. Um Baker Mayfield's
32:47rate when throwing to anyone other than Abuka over the middle of the field was 80%. It was 58% for Abuka.
32:53I bring that up because Abuka, that's supposed to be his bread and butter.
32:56That's what we thought coming into the league was that he would just eat over the middle of the field. He's a
32:59dependable slot. That's where he can win. He can be somebody who accumulates a ton of targets cuz he can run the full
33:05route tree and he could be somebody who attacks over the middle of the field and and just beats the current meta of NFL
33:10defense where they're kind of giving you those looks.
33:13And then he just ran into this weird outcome where his offensive line got hurt, he got hurt, his quarterback got hurt. And so he ends up with this
33:20bizarrely low catchable target rate.
33:23What we saw him do though was win down the field, which I think is really really impressive um considering he was
33:29at times like the only real competent receiver that they were trotting out there. Like defenses knew where it was going. Um I think there's a lot of
33:37reasons to be excited about Abuka. Um I think there's plenty of reasons to make the the bearish case too, obviously. I
33:44mean he had single-digit PPR points in like all but two games to close out the season, right? So I get why people have
33:50a sour taste in their mouth, but I will say I'm I'm pretty excited about Zach Robinson. Just did a Play Callers um
33:57episode uh you can find on YouTube with Rich Rebar. And a lot of stuff really points towards Zach Robinson potentially being somebody who can boost things
34:06offensively, but I think we've kind of seen him forced to play a certain types of ways with the quarterbacks that Atlanta has
34:13had. Um but I think that he might have the goods and might be able to really help this offense. He's been talking to
34:19Liam Cohen every day about how he can get the offense back to 2024 form. So I'm I'm tentatively in on Abuka,
34:25although I will say his price point um has me not ending up with him in drafts very often because I prefer a lot of the names around him,
34:34whether that's Zay Flowers, A.J. Brown we talked about, Jaylen Waddle, Ladd McConkey, Luther Burden. I have all those guys ranked ahead of Emeka.
34:41>> Emeka, I think that's going to be a conversation to have is is the cost and sort of the opportunity cost of drafting
34:47him because it's a player whose ADP is going to rise. I'm going to do everything possible to rise his ADP myself, Jacob, with my with my talk
34:56about him cuz I'm really into him, but I think from an from a like a bird's-eye view perspective, how would the market
35:01be treating him if it was backloaded production instead of front-loaded production? Maybe it was the the injury where we all expected him to
35:11sort of miss some time. He played through it. Maybe you could point to a million things, but I do love that you
35:15pointed out Zac Robinson. When Zac Robinson was hired in Atlanta, he had his pick of like five teams. Everybody wanted Zac Robinson that year. Maybe
35:25he's a post-type sleeper offensive coordinator and we see Emeka in sort of that Z role where you end up seeing him
35:32get some of the Cooper Kupp type usage and that's sort of the the dream when you get these McVay guys, you know, how
35:39how highly can we feature our wide receiver? And I think Emeka really does have that. I think one other big factor
35:45is how much gas in the tank does Chris Godwin have left? If Chris Godwin is an ADP beater and Chris Godwin really like
35:53crushes it this year and and has higher than anticipated usage, that would obviously hurt Emeka, but if we start seeing a little bit regression
36:02from Godwin who has had to sustain multiple injuries in his career, getting a little bit older, then I think that leans into maybe 150 target season for
36:10Emeka. And he's sort of a range of outcomes guy, but I keep clicking that button and I think we tell our our our
36:18strongest truths when we're actually on the clock sort of doing this thing of ours, Jacob. Let's talk about another player who is sort of reverse Emeka
36:26Emeka, but we're finding a much cheaper player where we look at Hardman who averaged like 20 points per game over the first five weeks of the year and
36:36then we look at in the state of Florida down the road in Jacksonville, Parker Washington became like the focal point of the Jacksonville passing game and had
36:46all these 18 plus point weeks.
36:49I think it was five out of his last seven games played including the NFL playoffs. Parker Washington went for 18 plus points scored
36:56and so much to like about the Liam Cohen slot role and they've talked about Parker Washington as a guy they can move
37:03around. They've even talked about getting the ball in his hands on manufactured carries. So they're saying all the right things. The price point is
37:10correct. You have a little bit of ambiguity with the ADP marketplace between BTJ and Parker Washington and they're sort of they've converged
37:17completely. So I think it's creating two potential values there but your enthusiasm level for Parker Washington and this is and is this also a little
37:26bit of a fade of Brian Thomas Jr.?
37:30>> I think he just has a much much more fantasy friendly game than Brian Thomas Jr. in terms of the way that they're
37:35using them now.
37:37Brian Thomas Jr. is kind of stuck on the outside and I think that that will help all of the catch and run type guys and
37:43Parker Washington is at the top of that list. Like you said they might use him on some design runs. He's kind of built
37:48like a running back. He's short, compact. He literally has first percentile arms for the wide receiver position which is hilarious cuz he has
37:5591st percentile hands.
37:57So he's just a funny looking guy but he goes and uses those hands man. He's so good in contested catch situations. So
38:03he's a really unique player. He's not the Chris Godwin Liam Cohen slot. He's working down the field a lot more and I
38:10think that they really found something with him here. I think that Cohen really maximized his his skill set. And so how
38:17do you >> [sighs] >> how do you handle that? Cuz it makes me a little bit nervous to expect more cuz
38:23I I truly think he maximized his skill set. Um if you look at like Matt Harmon's reception perception charting, some aspects of this profile look really
38:32good. So, what I noticed was his success rate on post routes was higher than Jackson Smith-Njigba's. And his success rate on digs and curls was almost as
38:43high as Jackson Smith-Njigba. But then if you look at like the outbreaking route or any of the kind of like quickness routes in terms of cutting
38:53with fluidity, JSN blows him out of the water, of course. Um but so what he's really good at is using his body and winning jump
39:03balls and then winning after the catch, like winning with physicality. And so he can get going on these post routes where
39:08he's able to shield off defenders, um win with his body before that point, and then go get the ball. And we saw a
39:14lot of that last year and that was really, really neat cuz that's what they were trying to get BTJ to do. Um but
39:20Trevor Lawrence led the league in drop yards. Like everybody was kind of letting him down. And Parker Washington had a few of those at the beginning of
39:26the year, but I think by and large we've seen him be very consistent in catching the football.
39:30I think that there's a chance that it's like last year over the course of the full season. If the Jaguars offense
39:35works, he'll be a huge part of it.
39:37They're ranting and raving about him.
39:39But I do So, that's the league-winning case. This is like Jaguars continue to do well. Liam Cohen has engineered really good offenses. The Bucks were
39:47second in fantasy points in 2024. The Jaguars were ninth last year.
39:51He's up there with anybody. If he has another year like that, then it's like put him in the freaking Shanahan and Ben
39:56Johnson tier in terms of play callers for fantasy. He's been that good.
40:00And I think we could get that this year.
40:03But there's clearly a risk here. I think he's probably the riskiest of the Jaguars receivers even though B- That seems like that title has to go to BTJ,
40:11right? I think it's probably actually Parker Washington because of these weird signals that we're getting from the team wanting to lean into bigger personnel packages and
40:20like copy what's going on around the league and that I think is clearly likely to take Parker Washington off the field, even
40:27though they talk about liking him and being able to use him on the outside and stuff.
40:32That's Zay Jones and Christian Kirk.
40:33Those guys are just better than him at that stuff. I'd be really, really surprised if they took either of them off of the field for Parker Washington
40:36there and we haven't even mentioned Travis Etienne, you know? So, I do have legitimate playing time concerns. Like, where I have him ranked is right at wide
40:39receiver 29.
40:49There's no one ranked around him who has similar playing time concerns. I guess you could say Luther Burden, maybe.
40:56But I feel pretty pretty confident Burden's going to play a ton. Um, Jaylin Reed is the closest thing. I've got Jaylin Reed at wide receiver 33. But
41:03that's what I'm saying. It's like you don't if you're using this type of capital on a player, you normally know that they're going to be out there. It's
41:09just a matter of them succeeding. With Washington, there's a chance that he doesn't even get a chance to be a fantasy relevant player if he's only
41:14running like 60, 70% of the routes. I hope that's not the case, but we don't really know what this offense will look like in year two.
41:22>> Yeah, I mean, when you look at Jacksonville as a team, you would think that they should be in 11 like all the
41:28time and have Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones and Parker Washington on the field, but yeah, I mean, you look at the contract
41:31that they paid for Brenton Strange recently. You look at the tight ends that they drafted this year. It feels like they want to go with some of these
41:39heavy packages.
41:43You think that maybe Parker Washington can overcome it, but yeah, if that snap share starts to drop, it's a scary proposition. I think that when I look at
41:52Jacksonville, there's multiple players sort of priced to succeed and it's not like we're having to pay an like an exceedingly high cost in ADP for
42:03really any of these guys. I've made the argument that double tapping Calvin Ridley and Parker Washington, you might end up with two guys that beat their ADP
42:12by 10 spots at the wide receiver position. You get maybe a wide receiver two and a flex play out of it. Um but
42:19Jakobi Meyers is the one that scares me.
42:22He's such a professional. We've seen him draw targets at every single level and we saw him sort of fast-tracked when he
42:28came over to Jacksonville. So, lot going on in the Jacksonville uh you know, coaching offices right now. Where does rational coaching play in? But, I think
42:36the dream scenario for Parker Washington is something that looks a little bit like 2024 Chris Godwin or something that looks a little bit like end of the year
42:472025 Parker Washington. So, I I feel like he we've already seen it. It's hard to put that stuff away. Um but, he's
42:54certainly a player that's been really like a like a hot button must-have player for a lot of really sharp people.
43:00So, we're going to continue talking about him all summer long. I'm going to talk about Jameson Williams. And I didn't think I'd be talking about Jamo,
43:07but we've seen recently in in ADP, Jameson Williams has sort of been like passed by Christian Watson types. And I don't think Jameson Williams is getting
43:16enough respect right now. He's a very interesting player, but we saw last year the backloaded production where Jameson Williams really took a huge step
43:25forward. The team leaned into him and he had a ton of spike weeks after a ridiculously slow start. But, when you
43:33look over the last two years, um he's had seven games with 22 points or more scored. The spike week ability is
43:42something that I think everybody knows.
43:44Jameson Williams is the guy that can get behind any defense. He can get those long explosive touchdowns. Um but, what's interesting to me is he was fifth
43:52in yards per target, eighth overall in receiving yards at the wide receiver position. Not but he had a 90% plus snap
44:00share. Um there's a lot to like there, but the last two years despite breaking out, he's had a target share of
44:06somewhere in the 18% range. If we could see Jameson Williams used just a little bit more frequently, I think there's a
44:15chance that he could explode this year, and there's a little bit of signal for that. In 2024, we saw him cross 90
44:22targets. Um and maybe we there was some arguments made that this is sort of what the ceiling target range looks like.
44:28Last year, he got to 101 targets. Could we see a scenario where Jameson Williams has 115 targets this year, provides the
44:36spike week ability, and maybe the the target share goes up just a little bit.
44:41Not nothing crazy. Something up to like maybe the 21% uh range. I just think there's so much talent with Jameson Williams, and he feels like a Dan
44:50Campbell guy. He's still young enough, and now we're seeing him going in ADP behind a bunch of these guys that are
44:57are just kind of moving ahead of him.
44:58There's no juice with Jamo like there was last off season. So, for me, I have already drafted him a number of times. I
45:06have been clicking the button in best ball a ton, and I've mixed in some Jameson redraft shares because I get him
45:12so cheap even in leagues like the FFPC.
45:15Where are you at on Jameson Williams and your thought on him taking his game to another level this year?
45:22>> I think that the Detroit Lions are like the best place to get fantasy football points this year. I think it's going to
45:28be an absolute print shop, and there's a number of things contributing to that. I think Goff is better than people realize. He was freaking QB5 in EPA for
45:36play last year, and that was with offensive line injuries. That was with tight end injuries. That was just I mean, his offensive coordinator got
45:43canned halfway through the year, got replaced halfway through the year. Like, it wasn't really a good year for Detroit, and still Goff kept playing
45:50well. I think he's just continued to get better.
45:52And now we've got going into this year, everything is concentrated on a few players. Um and we know who they are.
46:01And the Detroit Lions, because the way last year went down, end up with like the last place schedule in their division. They have what probably the
46:09easiest run out of any team in terms of looking at schedules this year. They get to play all these games in domes, and
46:14their defense might be worse than we've ever seen it, really. Um, and then the thing that I I don't I think a lot of
46:21people are talking about that stuff. I don't think what people are actually focusing on at all, really, is Drew Petzing. I know people like, you know,
46:27him for Sam LaPorta because what he's done with Trey McBride.
46:30But, I think Drew Petzing is a really underrated um play designer. I think he could really help the run game. His play
46:37calling sometimes is a little bit frustrating, um but he does some really cool pulling designs with the run that I think could get Jahmyr Gibbs out in
46:45space and could help the offense. Um, I think Kayden Mayes fits that perfectly, the center that they brought in. And then the other thing that Petzing does
46:51that I really like is he's he's been kind of ahead of his time in the whole I mean, the whole like showing run to set up pass type
47:00stuff. Um, he's number one in the percentage of plays that have been under center dropbacks um over the past 3 years in the league, uh ahead of Sean
47:07McVay. Like that I don't know if people realize that um cuz he doesn't come from that coaching tree, but he's been very
47:12good at that stuff. Um, he uses a lot of big like tight end like heavy personnel packages, which has really helped boost
47:18things for Trey McBride.
47:21It hasn't helped the receivers. It hasn't helped the specifically the second receiver.
47:27And so, I want to buy in on the Lions offense because I think that they could put up a ton of points, they could be in
47:31a ton of shootouts, and I think Goff is good enough to facilitate it.
47:35But, how do you do that? Jahmyr Gibbs is 101, Amon-Ra St. Brown is going in the first round. Jamo's the really the only
47:42cheap way to get access to that is Jamo and LaPorta because you've got the injury discount with LaPorta, and then Jamo
47:47people never really know what to do with him. Um, and so I think it's interesting in that sense that he's like clearly the
47:54cheapest way way get access to this, and if there's any injury at all, like he clearly has contingent upside and could
48:00go nuts.
48:01I I'm nervous about what his role is going to be in week one, you know, >> [laughter] >> to be frank. It wouldn't surprise me if
48:07we get him a month through the season and he has a freaking 14 and 1/2% target share or something like that. I think
48:12he's good enough to potentially deserve more targets, sure, but I don't know if we have any reason to believe that he
48:16will unless there's an injury.
48:18>> Yeah, it's an interesting one. And and again, I think that the cost makes a lot of sense here where Jameson steamed up
48:24last summer, ended up having a very strong end of the season, and then we're not seeing that same enthusiasm level.
48:31So, I get it. There is some downside risk, but you're also taking him in a range now where it's theoretical wide
48:37receiver upside for a lot of these guys we're betting on in this range. And Jameson, I've seen it 2 years in a row
48:43he's given us wide receiver two production. He's got contract insulation. He's got the Dan Campbell thing. And maybe Drew Pessing is just a
48:51name that we're not talking about enough because it was such an out of left field hire where there was so much hope. Like
48:58I remember the whole Mike McDaniel to Detroit where the fantasy community was like, "Please, please, please let this happen. Let's get Mike McDaniel with Dan
49:05Campbell and like this Jahmyr Gibbs attached to Mike McDaniel thing." And then they hired Drew Pessing who had no juice, who had no enthusiasm, no steam.
49:14But you look at some of the things Pessing was able to do with like James Conner in the running game in Arizona. A
49:20lot of like very positive signals for Pessing. And the fact that he was Dan Campbell's choice for a coveted a coveted position. So, I'm with you, but
49:30I think for when it comes to to Jameson, um the risk is is already baked in, and he's going in a range where it's not
49:38going to kill me if I get it wrong. And if I get it right, he might really get it right. And I know LaPorta is another
49:44value where we're going to talk about him in a minute, and I agree with you.
49:46LaPorta is a really strong click right now, especially where he's being drafted, but he's had the back issues.
49:52And again, Jameson Williams, if we see LaPorta miss some time, Jameson Williams to the moon. Amon Ra St. Brown miss some
49:58time, Jameson Williams to the moon. So, I I I love getting access to Lions and I and I'm glad that you do as well. Before
50:05we talk about LaPorta, let's talk about our final wide receiver, and it's Jayden Reed. Talk about post type guys.
50:12Jacob, we can like sit back and remember the opener a few years back where it was the Philadelphia Eagles in the Saquon
50:19Barkley game, and Barkley goes absolutely nuts. Game's in Brazil on a Friday, and Jayden Reed looked like Tyreek Hill. And everybody after that
50:30game lost their minds. And it was like Jayden Reed looks like this year's league winner. We are finally getting it. This is going to be the Tyreek Hill
50:39season. It was year two Jayden Reed. Um and ever since then it's been sort of downhill. Um where are you at with Reed,
50:47and what are you anticipating this season?
50:51>> Um I think the the Tyreek Hill comparison is fun because if you look at uh specifically downfield targets, it's like basically Tyreek Hill who's been
50:58more efficient to start a career compared to Reed. If that makes sense, like on the opportunities that he's had as a downfield route runner, we've
51:05really not seen anybody be as efficient as Reed on a per target basis at the beginning of a career. Um take that with a huge grain of salt cuz
51:13Matt LaFleur is really good at scheming up downfield looks, specifically for like this in space player that Reed the role that Reed plays.
51:21And Jordan Love has been really good on these throws. But not just specifically on downfield throws, but overall, Jayden Reed's freaking wide receiver one, dude.
51:302023 through 2025, wide receiver one in fantasy points per target in the league.
51:34Wide receiver one in passer rating when targeted.
51:37Out of everybody.
51:39There's a ton of targets vacated in Green Bay. Um I don't know how it's going to be dispersed. I don't know if
51:46Reed's going to get to play in two receiver sets or anything.
51:50I think it's going to be Golden and Christian Watson get the first crack at it. Um in terms of who's out there for
51:55two receiver sets. But we're like one injury away. Whereas in the past, it's been like it would take probably a Dobbs
52:04and Dontayvion Wicks and Christian Watson injury or something like that to get Reed on the field more.
52:09Right now it feels like he could just play more. We it's possible that all this Josh Downs hype is happening because of the coach speak.
52:17Could happen in Green Bay and we're just not getting the coach speak cuz Matt LaFleur keeps things a little closer to
52:20the chest.
52:21And then it's also possible that any type of injury would put him into a huge role. And what we've seen from this guy
52:26when targeted is really really really productive. So at the price point, I think it's pretty easy to just click Jayden Reed and
52:34hope that something happens. It's kind of like LaPorta or it's kind of like Jameson Williams. You know, they're very different players.
52:40>> Yeah, Jayden Reed you're getting at a at a really cheap discount right now. He's moved up a little bit in ADP, but not to
52:46a range where it like precludes you from getting getting exposure to him.
52:51I think that your biggest takeaway here is it's the two wide receiver sets and we've never seen a LaFleur offense really embrace Jayden Reed as like a
52:59full-time player and that's always been sort of the source of frustration is the snap share was in the 60% range, all
53:05that sort of stuff.
53:07But talent-wise he's really good. He's also super explosive. And I'll just throw out one other scenario here. We saw his rookie season how the usage
53:18increased on manufactured looks when Aaron Jones missed some time. Is there a scenario where Jayden Reed could be used on more manufactured touches and some of
53:29those Deebo Samuel not only carries but touches around the line of scrimmage if Josh Jacobs were to miss some time. And it's not just a
53:38Jacobs off the field stuff. It's a Jacobs has had so much volume over the last four years. Does that finally catch
53:46up to him? I think the Green Bay as an offense is going to have to be more dynamic this season based on the two
53:52playoff losses in back-to-back years.
53:54So, I think it's sort of pick your fighter here. If you're a Christian Watson guy, get some exposure to Christian Watson. If you're a Jayden
54:01Reed guy, get some exposure to Jayden Reed. The difference is Jayden Reed is super, super cheap right now and Watson is like an ADP rocket ship. You're
54:10seeing Watson going inside of like the fifth round. Jayden Reed, you're getting him way, way lower. So, I really like that take. Let's talk about two tight
54:18ends. And if you're listening to this on the podcast or you're watching this on YouTube, I'm going to drop some tight
54:24end target show uh sometime in the next week to 10 days. So, just stay tuned.
54:29You'll get uh you know, my my tight end targets. But, you've got two of them uh Jacob that you think are really
54:35interesting at cost. I like them both.
54:38Uh so, where do you want to start out?
54:39You're dealing with your choice here.
54:40You got two on the list.
54:41>> Yeah, let's talk LaPorta cuz we're already on the uh the Drew Petzing conversation. So, I did look it up. Um
54:49Petzing and the Cardinals over the past 3 years are fifth in EPA per rush on running back runs behind the Bills, Rams, Lions,
54:58and Ravens. That's where you find the Cardinals. Uh that's crazy. I don't I mean like next is the Dolphins. And I
55:04think people give Mike McDaniel's all his flowers, well deserved. Nobody nobody cares about your Petzing.
55:11>> [laughter] >> I don't understand it cuz it's like his team has been bad, too. His offensive line talent has been bad, too. Just like
55:16McDaniel, and he has freaking James Conner in there. And this past year he didn't even have James Conner. He was running Trey Benson out there compared
55:21to Devon Achane, and he has a higher EPA per rush. Uh he might just be really good at that. And I'm really excited to
55:26see what it looks like with Jahmyr Gibbs. And I think that that's just like the basis for the whole offense. And I
55:31think that that's why they wanted to bring him in is cuz of what he can do for Gibbs and what he can do for Sam
55:36LaPorta. I think the receivers are awesome. They do their thing. At this point, they've figured out how to use these two receivers extremely well. I
55:42think Pessen might be able to unlock LaPorta. So, lots of big personnel packages, lots of three tight end sets.
55:47We saw the Lions do that at times last year. The one team that really copied the Rams was the Bears. The Bears were
55:53doing it a ton at the end of the season.
55:55The Cardinals are the other team and the Cardinals and the and any Arthur Smith coached team have been doing this for a
56:01while where they use lots of three tight end sets. It's not this new thing that McVay made up or something. Um that's
56:06really boosted Trey McBride. It's basically like anytime that you have a three tight end set, you're showing the defense you're maybe going to run and
56:14you have also So, that that gives you advantageous potential matchups in terms of fewer defenders down the field and stuff like that or bigger defenders who
56:22aren't as equipped to cover.
56:23And then you also have less target competition inherently because instead of your second and third receiver, you have a tight end or a full back or
56:30whatever out there potentially running routes or maybe just blocking.
56:34And so, we've seen Trey McBride in these packages get hyper targeted. We've seen the same thing for Puka Nacua with the Rams. Uh we saw a
56:41little bit of Cole Kmet and Robert Tonyan last year with the Bears. I think we might see something like that with
56:45Sam LaPorta. Um it's probably him, Amon-Ra St. Brown, maybe Jameson Williams. I think those are the guys who are going to benefit from more of this
56:51and I do think the Lions want to do it more. The other thing is that I think that Sam LaPorta's continued progression
56:57has been a little bit overlooked because he had the massive year one and then was like a little bit disappointing since
57:03then. Last year he got hurt.
57:05>> [snorts] >> And so, he's kind of fallen to the wayside as all these other exciting tight ends have moved up.
57:10He averaged two yards per route run last year. It was the best per route season of Sam LaPorta's career.
57:16And if you look at tight ends who have averaged two yards per route run over the past like five years, it's
57:20him and Mark Andrews and Trey McBride, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Brock Bowers. And Kincaid did it as a rookie.
57:28But like that's a really high rate.
57:30There's not very many tight ends who get to that rate. He did it last year and now he gets this guy who's like
57:38manufactured all of these touches for the tight end position. And so it's it's very easy to be excited about him. Over
57:44the past 3 years, only George Kittle and Trey McBride have averaged more fantasy points per route run than Sam LaPorta.
57:50It's 0.52 for Kittle, 0.45 for McBride, 0.43 for LaPorta. And guess who's fourth?
57:56Dallas Goedert.
57:570.39.
57:59>> Nice professional segway by Jacob there.
58:01But real quick take on on LaPorta.
58:04Um yeah, I think it's like it's it's so funny. We talked about Jayden Reed. It's even more amplified with LaPorta. There
58:10was a time where Sam LaPorta was heading into year two a first-round pick in FFPC Main Event drafts. Like the community
58:18was head over heels and he had 120 plus targets as a rookie, finished as the tight end one overall. And then we
58:26talked about year two being a disappointment, but at the end of year two he did have a couple of spike weeks
58:31there. And the touchdown equity that he presents, I mean I made the bull case for Jameson Williams, but the bull case
58:37is also there for LaPorta. I think this is a little bit more of like an underdog, Draft Kings, and then certainly NFFC take than FFPC where
58:46LaPorta is still going to cost you a premium price tag. But I think it's some of these non-tight end premium formats,
58:51LaPorta is like become like a very easy click. We do have like a sort of a there's a cluster of tight ends and this
58:58is not how everyone's rankings have to be, but if we're looking at ADP, it's sort of you've got the McBride and
59:04Bowers and Loveland. Those guys are locked in top three for most. Tyler Warren is sort of in his own little tier
59:10of his own. Um he's locked in. Then we've got this like cluster of tight ends that there's a lot of people sort
59:16of making bull cases for LaPorta, Tucker Kraft, Harold Landry and Junior, Kyle Pitts. And then after that you've got like Kittle who's come up a little bit
59:27because of the injury optimism, but specifically looking at LaPorta versus Kraft, Fanning, and Pitts, would you take LaPorta over those three other guys, or is it close for
59:38you, Jacob?
59:40>> If healthy, I would have LaPorta and Tucker Kraft as three and four ahead of This is going to just sound like it's
59:47some ridiculous hot take ahead of Trey McBride.
59:49>> Whoa.
59:49>> So, yeah, I know.
59:51Um where I currently have them is Bowers, Loveland, McBride, Kraft, LaPorta, and then Warren and Fanning.
59:58And I know that's not the usual ranking. Um I think we can spend a lot of time with this if you
60:04want. Um what I would say on McBride is there's a million and one reasons pointing towards why things are potentially going to be significantly
60:11different than last year, and almost definitely going to be different than last year. My favorite stat on that is from the goat, Rich Rebar.
60:20He broke down how many routes McBride ran, which it was like by far the most of any tight end in the past 5 years.
60:25And if you look at like the number of routes tight ends typically run per game, which he his research showed was
60:3032 routes per game, McBride essentially ran 22 games worth of routes last year.
60:35Um which is just I mean, of course he scored a ton of fantasy points. That's insane. Everyone else is running 16 or
60:4117 games with the routes, and he's running 22. Um the other thing that Rich has pointed out that I think is hilarious and
60:48simple, um and just really funny because we we like to overcomplicate things, the top scorer at tight end in each of
60:55the past 5 years simply led the position in routes run.
60:57>> Yeah.
60:58>> And that's not as easy to predict as it sounds, um but I really worry that Arizona is not going to be able to
61:05string together first downs as well this year, especially if they have to change quarterbacks, which they might do multiple times throughout the year.
61:13They've got a really hard schedule to open the season. I could see them starting out like one and eight or something.
61:19>> [laughter] >> And if that's if they're just not winning games, they're going to have to change quarterbacks, I think. And if
61:23they're if we're getting Gardner Minshew or a rookie quarterback or something like I think they're going to try to lean on the run game with the guy that
61:29they just drafted really high. They're going to probably try to justify that pick.
61:33I'm really nervous about the volume for McBride, and that's what he's needed to give us this massive production.
61:39Who could lead the position in route's run?
61:42I really don't think it's going to be Tucker Kraft in Green Bay.
61:46I don't think it's going to be Brock Bowers with the Raiders. I could be off on that, but I think that's going to be
61:50a run-first offense.
61:53I don't think it's going to be Cole Kmet loving with the Bears. Again, I could be off, but that feels again like a pretty
61:57run-first offense. They're more likely to produce plays than the Raiders, so I feel best about him of all the tight ends we've talked about this far.
62:04Then you get to LaPorta, and I think his case for getting to that type of route volume is better than anyone I just
62:10mentioned. If the Lions get into a ton of crazy shootouts because of this defense and their schedule and everything else, like I think that we
62:17could see that kind of outcome. We haven't seen Hetzings' offenses typically operate that way, so maybe they'll play slow and really lean on the
62:24ground game.
62:25But maybe Isaiah Pacheco was going to bounce back and be David Montgomery. But I'm looking at the backfield and just saying
62:30like, I don't know. Do you really want >> be David Montgomery.
62:33>> I don't think he is. Do you want to give 25-30 touches per game to this backfield? I don't know. That seems like
62:38a lot to ask of the players in this backfield. Where's the strength of your team? Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam
62:44LaPorta, Jameson Williams, clearly the strength of your team.
62:47And so I think there's a chance that this is by far the pass-heaviest offense of these top tight ends. The other ones
62:53being the Browns and the Colts. I think they're all pretty run-heavy offenses.
62:58So I think that that's probably your best bet as to who leads the tight end position in route's run. Of course, it
63:04all comes down to his health.
63:05>> We're going to have to run it back, Jacob, cuz you're like you called Rich Rebar the goat, and Rich Rebar is is
63:10like one of the best to ever do it, but you are just so on point with your takes. This show has just been absolute
63:17fire. Rich is going to be joining me in about a week and a half right on the on this show. So, if you're a podcast
63:22listener or YouTube viewer, you will see Rich Reebar in here really soon. He's sharp. But, Jacob, you are really sharp.
63:28And you kind of blew my mind with some of these Lions stats. I think Pacheco's dusty. I think he's just a contingent upside
63:35handcuff.
63:36And I'm not so sure if anything, God forbid, happened to Jamaal Williams in like the month of August, I think they'd
63:41bring somebody else in, too. I don't think Pacheco can do it. Um so, I'm with you. I think these Lions, like you have
63:48the bull case on LaPorta. I have the bull case on Jameson Williams. And I'm sure we both have Amon-Ra St. Brown
63:54somewhere inside of our top 12s. Am I going out on a limb here? You got Amon-Ra St. Brown-ish in your first
64:00round? Yeah. There we go.
64:02>> Yeah, easy pick.
64:04>> Easy pick. We've got one more player to talk about. And we saw We talked about A.J. Brown. And A.J. Brown is now a New
64:11England Patriot. And I think a lot of the bull cases have been made for DeVonta Smith stepping into the A.J.
64:17Brown role. But, there's the DeVonta Smith role was also a very fantasy-friendly one. And if the pass volume in Philly sort of steps up a
64:26little bit, there could be room for a secondary pass-catcher to thrive under Sean Mannion. You've also got the Saquon Barkley's a little bit older. Does he
64:36fully bounce back this year? This Philadelphia Eagles offense also showed us a signal by drafting Mekhi Leven and Eli Stowers in the first two rounds that
64:45they want pass-catchers. You are talking about Dallas Goedert here who had double-digit touchdown catches last year. It's sort of an easy like It's an
64:54easy thesis to talk about Jalen Hurts is going to target him more cuz A.J.
64:58Brown's gone. And the guy catches touchdowns. But, how high is this ceiling for a 30-plus-year-old tight end like Dallas Goedert who is coming off of
65:06a awesome season?
65:09>> I mean, I'd say it's pretty high. He He played a game without A.J. Brown 2 years ago and had 10 catches on 11 targets for
65:14170 yards. He's pretty good, man. I don't think people realize how good this player is. So, the the sample size without Brown on the field is very low.
65:22It's 171 routes. Um but within that, we've got a 2.7 yard per route run rate for Goddard. I told you earlier that
65:29only the best of the best even get above two.
65:31Um so, there is plenty of room for that small sample size to come into effect and that rate to drop and him still be
65:36really, really good. And the thing is, he's been really, really good on a per opportunity basis even with A.J. Brown there being a complete alpha target hog,
65:43even with DeVonta Smith being one of the best wide receivers in the league, Goddard's still been pretty damn productive. He's a beast, man. He's
65:49really good in the red zone. He, like I said earlier, is is fourth in fantasy points per route run over the past three
65:55seasons. So, even later in his career, he's still really efficient and that has a lot to do with touchdowns, for sure.
66:01Um only George Kittle scored more fantasy points per game in the red zone over that stretch than Goddard. I think, though, that A.J. Brown's absence leaves
66:11a massive role potentially for Goddard in the red zone. Like, I I love DeVonta Smith to death, but to me, he's more
66:18like This This is a hot take. I think that I'm about to load here. I think DeVonta Smith is the closest thing we have to
66:25Justin Jefferson in the league stylistically. Um and so, he can win in the red zone, for sure. He can route up
66:31anybody. But to me, where he's so freaking dangerous and scary is in space.
66:35Um you see him striding out and it's like, yeah, that's Slim Reaper. We know who that is. That guy's nasty.
66:41Um but when they get down in scoring position, I think it's it's Goddard and Hurts and Saquon that will be emphasized
66:48the most. So, I think we could see another massive season. And if the the targets and yards that we've seen on a per opportunity
66:54basis with A.J. Brown off the field track at all, then it could be like a top-five season at the tight end
66:59position that nobody is talking about.
67:03>> I think it's as fantasy managers, it's almost feels illegal to talk about unknown upside when it comes to guys that are like 30 plus, but Goddard role
67:12could be really really good. It's It's It's a It's a funny situation, but you're able to get Goddard at such an
67:19interesting range where he's like a high-end tight end two and there's a chance he moves into a high-end like like low-end tight end one
67:28range as we get to like the late August, but it feels like he's got a cap ceiling in terms of where the ADP could go and
67:34he is one of the biggest bets of all tight ends to return another like double-digit touchdown season and I think the targets it's weird. I made
67:43this call on another show that Terry McLaurin was going to have a career high in targets this year in this David
67:48Blough offense despite being like 31. I think Dallas Goddard could also have a career high in total targets. So really awesome stuff from you Jacob. I'm going
67:57to get a chance to go on your pod.
67:59I think that's next week which I'm so stoked about. Let me know once again where they can find your work.
68:05>> Beyond the Box Score, check us out on YouTube. Please do subscribe. We just started a channel.
68:09I think we're pushing up around 3,000 subscribers and yeah, if you're here, you're in very good hands with Theo like he mentioned
68:15Lord Reebs obviously lots of great guests coming on, but Theo's doing fantastic work. So be sure to keep showing up, keep supporting and I hope
68:22to see you over at Beyond the Box Score.
68:23We got We got live podcasts every Tuesday and Thursday. We got a fun community there that we're building out.
68:28So if you want to come hang out and chat and ask football questions, we'll be there.
68:31>> Awesome stuff. Highly recommend anything Jacob puts out. Make sure you're sticking with this podcast feed. Make sure you're sticking with this YouTube
68:37channel. We're going to have guests like Jacob every single week and we're dropping a show a day in the month of
68:43July and the month of August. We're going to help you crush your fantasy leagues this season. We'll see you soon.

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