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The BEST Fantasy Football Pick in EVERY Round (2026)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

53 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 26, 2026
Published
Wed, August 26, 2026
47
Player insights
46
Players mentioned
Topics
Harold FanninAaron JonesAntonio GibsonBaker MayfieldBijan RobinsonBrian RobinsonBucky IrvingChase BrownChris BellChris GodwinChris OlaveD'Andre SwiftDak PrescottDallas Goedert
Player analysis

Player insights

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Aaron Jones

PositiveValue16:30

Kevin Oonnell recommends Aaron Jones as a target in specific backfield splits, noting that even in a committee, the situation can still work out for fantasy production. He suggests pairing Jones with Jordan Mason to capitalize on the Vikings' offensive efficiency.

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Antonio Gibson

NegativeValue17:06

Kevin Oonnell believes the cost to acquire both Antonio Gibson and Rhamondre Stevenson in New England is too high, despite the potential for both to have success in a committee.

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Baker Mayfield

PositiveValue35:19

Kevin Oonnell recommends drafting Baker Mayfield in round 11, suggesting his touchdown production could exceed current ADP expectations.

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Bijan Robinson

NegativeValue0:42

While Justin Herszig views Bijan Robinson as a top-tier first-round pick, Kevin Oonnell warns against drafting handcuffs for him, noting that the significant draft capital required to secure both the starter and backup is inefficient in best ball.

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Brian Robinson

NegativeValue16:51

Kevin Oonnell advises against drafting Brian Robinson as a handcuff to Bijan Robinson, arguing that the combined draft capital cost is too high for the expected return in best ball formats.

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Bucky Irving

NegativeUsage33:32

Kevin O'Connell highlights that Bucky Irving did not receive goal-line reps last year, contrasting his usage with the potential opportunity for Kenneth Gainwell.

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Chase Brown

PositiveUsage4:03

Kevin O'Connell recommends Chase Brown as a structural second-round pick, highlighting his elite usage at the running back position over the last two seasons and his role within a high-powered offense.

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Chris Bell

NegativeRole37:12

Kevin Oonnell mentions Chris Bell as a returning pass-catcher who could assist Malik Willis.

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Chris Godwin

NegativeUsage35:42

Kevin Oonnell mentions Chris Godwin as a correlated pass-catcher to target alongside Baker Mayfield.

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Chris Olave

PositiveValue7:06

Chris Olave is a fantastic third-round value pick with top-five wide receiver upside. His role is considered very secure, especially with the potential absence of Jordan Tyson until week nine.

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D'Andre Swift

PositiveValue18:32

Kevin Oonnell targets D'Andre Swift in the fifth round, citing his upside, his role as a receiver in Chicago, and reports that he had the best training camp of any skill player on the team.

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Dak Prescott

PositiveValue40:10

Kevin O'Connell recommends drafting Dak Prescott in round seven, highlighting the Dallas Cowboys' potential to lead the NFL in scoring and the stability of their offensive line. O'Connell expects Prescott to deliver high yardage and touchdown totals, making him a solid pick at his 80th overall ADP.

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Dallas Goedert

PositiveUsage34:05

Kevin O'Connell identifies Dallas Goedert as a high-upside target, noting that when AJ Brown was off the field last year, Goedert posted a 26.4% target rate and 2.65 yards per route run. With DeVonta Smith as the primary competition for targets, Goedert is set up for a strong season.

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Derrick Henry

PositiveValue3:50

Derrick Henry is considered a safe second-round pick with high upside due to his role in a strong Ravens offense (10.5 win total) and high projected workload. Justin Herszig notes his superior floor and median projection compared to peers, pointing to his 5.2 yards per carry at age 31 and increased yards after contact as evidence he continues to surpass value expectations.

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DeVonta Smith

NegativeRole34:30

Kevin O'Connell notes that with DeVonta Smith as the primary competition for targets, Dallas Goedert is set up for a strong season, especially early on.

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DK Metcalf

PositiveValue24:56

Kevin O'Connell argues DK Metcalf is undervalued at his current ADP of approximately 74. Metcalf's 11.3 aDOT last year was suppressed by Aaron Rodgers' check-down tendencies, but O'Connell expects him to return to a traditional role that facilitates explosive plays, especially with Michael Pittman Jr. potentially shifting to a shorter-area role.

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Garrett Wilson

PositiveBreakout7:24

Kevin Oonnell recommends Garrett Wilson as a fourth-round target who possesses the talent and volume to overcome concerns about the Jets' offense. Before his injury last year, he was on a wide receiver one pace, averaging 9.6 targets and 19 fantasy points per game. Despite the additions of Kenyan Sadi and Omar Cooper Jr., Wilson remains the clear number one pass-catching option and is a candidate to lead the league in targets. Additionally, Oonnell notes Wilson benefits from an injury discount, making him an attractive target.

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George Kittle

PositiveValue32:44

Kevin O'Connell views George Kittle as a high-value tight end for best ball and redraft, noting that his current ADP is lower than peers like Tucker Kraft, Sam LaPorta, Harold Fannin Jr., and Kyle Pitts. O'Connell maintains Kittle is a solid value pick supported by positive health reports.

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Harold Fannin

PositiveUsage29:29

Kevin Oonnell believes Harold Fannon Jr. will maintain a strong target share in the Cleveland offense, even while surrounded by rookie wide receivers early in the season.

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PositiveValue29:29

Kevin O'Connell identifies Harold Fannin Jr. as a preferred tight end target in the middle rounds, believing he will maintain a strong target share in the Cleveland offense even while surrounded by rookie wide receivers early in the season.

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NegativeValue0:42

Justin Herszig values Jahmyr Gibbs as a top-tier first-round selection; however, Kevin Oonnell advises against handcuffing elite players like Gibbs in best ball formats, arguing that spending high draft capital on both a starter and their backup is an inefficient strategy.

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Jalen McMillan

PositiveSleeper35:47

Kevin Oonnell identifies Jalen McMillan as a fun late-round target in all fantasy formats. Oonnell notes that the market is incorrectly treating him as injured despite his return to training camp, and he could provide multiple spike weeks, especially if Emeka Egbuka's toe injury lingers.

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Jameson Williams

PositiveBreakout20:02

Kevin Oonnell is targeting Jameson Williams as a value pick, believing the Sam LaPorta injury opens up opportunities for Williams to produce immediately and capitalize on his spike-week potential.

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Jayden Daniels

PositiveValue21:02

Kevin Oonnell identifies Jayden Daniels as his highest-drafted quarterback, citing his rushing ability and solid passing as undervalued assets. Oonnell notes that the new coaching staff's emphasis on under-center play and play-action should increase efficiency and scramble opportunities. Additionally, the additions of Stefon Diggs and a healthy Terry McLaurin create a strong narrative for his success, making him a value pick because he lacks the intense draft-room competition seen with other quarterbacks.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveValue9:26

Jaylen Waddle is recommended as a fun and strong fantasy draft option for the upcoming season.

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Jaylen Warren

PositiveValue18:09

Kevin Oonnell identifies the Pittsburgh backfield, specifically Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle, as a cost-effective committee, noting that Aaron Rodgers' tendency to feed running backs makes them solid picks. Oonnell expects Warren to maintain a complimentary, pass-catching role.

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Jeffery Wilson

NegativeUsage16:00

Kevin Oonnell notes Jeff Wilson was part of the 2023 Dolphins' ambiguous backfield rotation alongside Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane before suffering an injury.

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Jeremiyah Love

PositiveSleeper5:32

Jeremiah Love is a high-upside third-round target who may start slow due to injury and competition from Tyler Allgeier, but is expected to become an offensive focal point in the second half of the season. As a third overall pick with high prospect grades, he has the potential to reach 25 touches per game and is viewed as a future first-round talent.

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Jordan Mason

PositiveValue16:30

Kevin Oonnell suggests drafting Jordan Mason alongside Aaron Jones as a strategy to bet on the efficiency of the Vikings' offense, noting both players can provide value in an ambiguous backfield split.

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Josh Allen

PositiveValue10:14

Josh Allen is considered a high-value target in redraft formats due to his elite median and ceiling projections, making him a safe top-three scorer. Kevin Oonnell notes that as long as he stays healthy, he is locked in as a top-three quarterback. In best ball, however, Oonnell prefers waiting on quarterback to build 3QB rosters, noting that taking Allen in round four can limit roster flexibility for playoff structures.

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Justin Fields

NegativeUsage9:00

Justin Fields is cited as a historical example of a quarterback situation that resulted in extremely low passing volume, which the Jets are expected to avoid this year.

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Justin Jefferson

PositiveValue0:50

Justin Herszig identifies Justin Jefferson as his most-drafted player in the back half of the first round, citing his elite talent and ability to produce as a true alpha receiver regardless of quarterback play.

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Kenneth Gainwell

PositiveUsage31:35

Kevin Oonnell highlights Kenneth Gainwell as a high-value target who could lead the Buccaneers in catches, noting his effectiveness as a pass blocker and potential for increased goal-line work if Shawn Tucker is cut.

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Kenneth Walker III

NegativeRole5:21

Justin Herszig acknowledges Kenneth Walker III's talent but expresses uncertainty regarding whether he possesses the necessary role to be a top-tier fantasy asset compared to players like Derrick Henry.

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Kyle Pitts

PositiveValue29:29

Kevin O'Connell targets Kyle Pitts as a high-upside tight end, noting his growth last year and the lack of significant target competition at the wide receiver two spot, which should benefit Pitts' target ceiling. O'Connell expects Pitts to return value at his current ADP, citing a history of tight end success in the Stefanski offense.

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Kyler Murray

NegativeProjection30:24

Kevin Oonnell prefers Kyler Murray as a stacking quarterback, projecting a solid fantasy floor based on 25-30 rushing yards per game, despite acknowledging the risk of being benched for J.J. McCarthy if the Vikings fall out of playoff contention.

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Malik Willis

PositiveProjection36:58

Kevin Oonnell targets Malik Willis in round 12 for his rushing upside, noting that if he starts the entire year, he will likely crush his current prop line of 549.5 rushing yards. Oonnell views him as an ideal third quarterback in three-QB builds, capable of providing spike weeks through his ground game and potential passing improvements with receivers like Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell, Malik Washington, and Greg Dulcich.

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Matthew Stafford

PositiveValue28:54

Kevin O'Connell recommends Matthew Stafford as a high-upside quarterback pick in round nine, emphasizing his ability to stack with pass-catchers like Davante Adams and Puka Nacua. Stafford's high passing volume and touchdown efficiency make him a winning play for stacking strategies, even despite his injury history.

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Omar Cooper Jr.

PositiveUsage8:24

Omar Cooper Jr. is a target competitor for Garrett Wilson, but he has been slow out of the gate, leading to minimal target competition for the Jets' primary receiver.

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NegativeValue17:06

Kevin Oonnell views the New England backfield committee of Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson as too expensive, noting that the combined draft capital required in the fifth-to-seventh round range is 'a little too rich' for his blood.

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Rico Dowdle

PositiveValue18:09

Kevin Oonnell identifies Rico Dowdle as a value target in Pittsburgh, citing back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and reports suggesting he is the primary back. While priced as a 1B, Dowdle has 1A workhorse potential, especially if Jaylen Warren misses time.

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Tre Tucker

PositiveBreakout40:20

Kevin Oonnell identifies Trey Tucker as a late-round target, noting that Tucker's preseason usage—specifically being a healthy scratch while Jaylen Naylor played—suggests Tucker is the WR1 on the depth chart. Oonnell compares his potential role to Rasheed Shaheed, noting that at his current draft price, he offers significant value as a young, semi-talented primary receiver.

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Trevor Lawrence

PositiveProjection27:26

Kevin O'Connell views Trevor Lawrence as a foundational QB1, noting that despite a pricier ADP (QB10), Lawrence showed QB1 overall production over the second half of last season. O'Connell trusts the Liam Coen offense to help Lawrence beat his current market price.

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Tyjae Spears

PositiveValue42:08

Kevin Oonnell explicitly states that he likes Tyjae Spears a lot, positioning him as a target in the later rounds of drafts.

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Tyler Allgeier

NegativeRole6:35

Tyler Allgeier is mentioned as a potential obstacle to Jeremiah Love's immediate workload, though the source suggests this concern may be overblown as the team looks to feature Love.

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Tyler Warren

PositiveBreakout37:11

Tyler Warren is identified as a high-upside tight end target who could lead the position in catches and targets. O'Connell suggests a potential usage shift similar to Taysom Hill, including goal-line 'tush push' snaps, which could provide additional value beyond standard receiving production.

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Woody Marks

PositiveUsage39:34

Kevin Oonnell likes Woody Marks in round 12 due to his pass-catching ability, which provides a floor for usable weeks even when David Montgomery is active. Marks also offers contingent upside should Montgomery miss time, and Oonnell expects him to see significant playing time.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

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0:00Who is the best player to select in every round in fantasy football right now? Theo Ginger, lead fantasy analyst right here at Rotoire. Joined today by
0:08former baseball mania overall champion Justin Herszig. Justin, you're like one of the best ball experts out in the space. Uh do awesome work over at
0:17Establish the Run. We We're going to go through every single round here. We're gonna I mean, and you can kind of take
0:22it how you want. I didn't really give Justin any direction on this one. So it could be like the best structural pick.
0:28It could be the highest ceiling pick.
0:29However you want to take it, Justin. But Justin is going to share his favorite player in every round. Right now, we're
0:36going to be looking at underdog ADP. I'm also going to share a couple players that I really like. Why don't we start
0:42out with round one, who is the best value inside of round one. Yeah. And so, obviously, like, love Gibbs, love Bejon.
0:50But if we're talking from like a pure value, who's the player that I'm ending up with the most on, it's Justin
0:54Jefferson. And it's that back half of the first round. And for me, it's just I'm willing to buy into that. This is
1:00Kevin Oonnell. Kevin Oonnell has had success with just about every other QB except for JJ McCarthy. JJ McCarthy is the outlier. And so, if you look at
1:08Justin Jefferson, you've got he averaged 99 yards with Cousins, 95 yards with Wentz, 90 yards per game with Darnold. I believe that Kyler Murray has the
1:16ability to actually support an elite wide receiver. We've seen it previously in his career. And when you combine that with Kevin Oonnell, I think Justin
1:21Jefferson from a pure talent-wise, he's just a tier above the rest. and we should still be treating him like that true alpha.
1:28>> I love it. And we heard Justin Jefferson this week. He said he's going to remind everybody that he's the best wide
1:32receiver in the league. I cheated. I put him as my second rounder because I have been drafting him. You know, you get
1:37access to Justin Jefferson sometimes. I mean, you know this more than anybody.
1:40You're drafting high volume in multiple formats, but you get access to Justin Jefferson in the beginning of the second round. Sometimes he falls. And that's
1:48like an auto click for me, not only in baseball, but also in reddraft. For me, I kind of went in the same direction as
1:53you except with a different wide receiver when I'm sort of stuck in the middle of the first round towards like the 108. For me, it's Aman Ross St.
2:01Brown where it's just the incredible consistency. He's had three straight four straight years with 106 catches or more. Last year, we had 1,400 uh
2:10receiving yards. We had that 1500 uh season in 2023. We know he's going to get a ton of end zone targets. Always
2:17towards the the league leaders and end zone targets. three straight years with at least 10 touchdown catches and I think it's just a fantastic offense that
2:25I don't have any questions about. I think Detroit could lead the NFL in scoring. So, sort of with you on that
2:30and then I'll jump the gun here before you get to your second rounder. My second rounder was Justin Jefferson. Uh Justin so eloquently made the case for
2:39him. It's it doesn't really need much saying. And then another sort of cheat guy, Chase Brown, where Chase Brown is such a great structural pick. I also get
2:47access to a great offense. And with Chase Brown, I've seen it now for two two years in a row. Elite usage at the
2:53running back position. How about for you? Who's your favorite second round value right now?
2:58>> Yeah. And I'm specifically looking at like I went last night, I looked through all of my ownership percentages and who
3:03I'm drafting the most of. And so I want to make this as, you know, a real authentic as possible. And so for me,
3:07that's Derrick Henry. And I believe that he has as much upside as any other running back in that area. But his floor
3:13and his medium projection is so much better than the rest. Like you look at the other guys going around him. Yes,
3:18Chase Brown amazing role, but like does he have the talent? Kenneth Walker has the talent. Do we know he has the role?
3:25If you look at Ham with the offense, you look at some of the others. Genty now with the injury. Like for Derrick Henry,
3:30we know he's getting the volume. We know that he's on a highowered offense. I think the Ravens have a 10 and a half
3:35win total. And the only question is, is he going to decline as he gets older in age? Well, you know what? Last year
3:41still had 5.2 yards per carry at age 31.
3:44at 29, he had a yard per carry less. If we look at just from a yards after contact, that actually increased last
3:50year. Like there's, you know, there were macro issues with the offense last year that maybe kind of say, hey, here's some
3:56larger issues. But if we're going against the if we're going with the market, if we're seeing what the Ravens are going to be doing this year, if
4:02we're looking at the new offensive coordinator, I believe that Derrick Henry has the ability to really, hey, have those weekly, we're breaking the
4:08game type structures. And if you, you know, just from a yards, from a touchdown, from a pure projection, I think he's just kind of the best safe
4:15with a decent upside in that second round.
4:19>> Does your enthusiasm for Henry also extend to managed leagues, Justin? I know a lot of your exposure is baseball, but uh managed obviously things change a
4:28little bit. Uh Henry's sort of in that that clump of running backs, but he goes towards the end of that tier. We've seen
4:35Derrick Henry in FFPC main events go at like the 301, the 302, and we're seeing him going like behind Omar and Hampton
4:44and some of these quote unquote breakout type running backs. Are you also, if you were in a let's say an FFPC main event
4:50or or a F or NFC prime time, would you also be sort of clicking that button with enthusiasm when it comes to Derrick
4:56Henry?
4:58>> Yeah, I still think so. I mean, we want running backs that are on strong offenses and that are going to have a
5:03high workload. That's exactly what Dererick Henry is. Now, the knock in him is he's not catching as many passes as some of the others, but you know what?
5:10He hasn't done that his entire career and he's still been able to absolutely blow P, you know, surpass his value each
5:16year. So, yeah, he has that crazy upside we want in baseball, but also just because of the role and the strength of
5:22that offense, he's going to have such great value in reaff.
5:25>> How about your third round target, your favorite player, the best value in round three? All right, this one comes with
5:32more risk but ridiculous upside. I'm going to go with Jeremiah Love. When we were, you know, earlier before this injury, he was still going in that early
5:40third. Now, you can likely get him late third, sometimes even in that early fourth. But this is a number three overall pick. This is PFF's number six
5:47prospect grade. And there's a lot of JR, you know, Jir Gibs comp there. For me, I just think that we are, you know, taking
5:55maybe it's the algier, maybe it's the injury aspect, but this is a Cardinals team that is going to want to show that,
6:01hey, they justifi they're justified in making that pick at third overall. And so, I think the second half of the season, I think Jeremiah level will
6:08start slow, especially with this injury and you have the algier, but given that second half, I think he's going to have
6:14an absolutely huge year and they're going to have no issues. They're already giving him what 16 15 touches in a pregame in a preseason game to get him
6:21hurt him regular season when they're out of the playoffs and they're just kind of showing off what they have. I think he
6:25can have 25 touches a game and have one of the highest projections on a weekly basis.
6:29>> Yeah. And we've talked about it and if you start doing the mental exercise, who's going to be a first round pick in
6:342027 and I asked you for 10 guys, Justin, and if I asked 10 other smart fantasy analysts, who's going to be in
6:39the first round? Everybody would sort of say Jeremiah Love, how does he get there? He doesn't get there by being shut down in the second half of the
6:46season or having some season where he's getting conceding everything to Tyler Algier. I think it's a little bit ridiculous. Love that you brought up the
6:53preseason usage cuz I think that's been sort of the narrative that if they're bad, they're not going to use him down
6:58the stretch. And I think it's sort of on the contrary. It's sort of establishing Love as their offensive focal point would be what what they should do. I I
7:06sort of cheated on this one. I Chris Ave who's routinely going like at the 25th overall pick on underdog but you do get
7:12him technically in round three. I think he's a fantastic value especially with Jordan Tyson maybe not playing until like week nine. I think's role is so
7:21sound and I think structurally a lot of the teams that I've been drafting running back running back and then I follow up with like Chris Ave. I feel
7:28like that's a really strong start for me. I think he could has top five wide receiver upside. How about in round four
7:35for you, Justin?
7:37>> Round four, I'm going to stick with Ohio State wide receiver and I'm going to go to Garrett Wilson. Um, if we look at
7:42what he's I think people just kind of forget either the talent or the role because of last year's injury, we've seen just a larger macro aspect where
7:51people are just fading the Jets, the Steelers, the Browns, the bad offenses.
7:55But I think Garrett Wilson has the level of talent and volume that he surpasses that concern. uh weeks one to five last
8:02year he averaged 9.6 targets per game 19 fantasy points per game wide receiver one pace before the actual before that injury and if we look at his kind of
8:12nextgen stats he was leading the way from an efficiency in many of those categories now when we look at this year
8:18we need to take into account like yes they drafted first round Kenyan Sadi they drafted Omar Cooper Jr. How has the
8:24offseason gone for them? Like this is Garrett Wilson is going to be the number one pass catching option and I wouldn't
8:29be shocked if he ends up leading the league in targets.
8:33>> Love I I love that one. I drafted Garrett Wilson uh recently in a in a $350 entry FFPC league. I've sort of
8:40made the same argument where you go back even to last year. He was so good out like right out the jump. If we look at
8:46the first month of last season, he was trending towards maybe his best usage season ever. Now, I think that New York
8:53has sort of stabilized that offensive line. Gino Smith is going to also provide a little bit of stability, uh, at least in terms of like normal
9:00quarterback production. You saw last year sort of the the Justin Fields experience where there was like no passing volume whatsoever. Uh, now
9:07you're going to have a team that's a balanced team that and Wilson really is the one that I think they're going to
9:12lean on. Then you also consider that like Omar Cooper has been slow out the gate, so like the target competition is
9:17really minimal. 170 targets could be there. I I think that this is a terrific round and for me Wilson I think is a
9:26great answer. I also think that Jaylen Wadd is a really fun answer. And then the wide receiver that I'll give credit
9:32to uh Jack Miller who you work with.
9:35Jack brought up the slot usage for Tedoa McMillan and he's a player that I had to bring up in my rankings. He's got the
9:42alpha profile top 10 draft capital last year. had 70 catches, seven touchdowns, and over a thousand receiving yards on sort of a bad Carolina team. If this
9:53slot usage is real, then I think McMillan could end up being a fantastic value with spike week ability and sort of the offensive focal point narrative
10:01you talked about with Jeremiah Love, but with Carolina. So, McMillan's one that I've I've had to play catch-up with recently. want to get your thoughts on
10:10him, but also just sort of like the name that stares you right in the face when you're in the fourth round of best
10:15baseballs right now, especially underdog. And then also, this is sort of staring FFPC managers in the face and I'm sure a lot of home league managers,
10:24everybody's pushing quarterback down and Josh Allen is just staring at me in round four in a baseball draft. Like, how much exposure do you have to Josh
10:33Allen this year? And do you think it's a you're you're gaining or sort of losing an edge when you embrace QB1 overall in
10:41these sort of builds?
10:42>> Yeah, so starting off with Hero McMillan, I agree with that preseason usage and playing in that slot. I do think this has the ability to kind of
10:48elevate him. I would not be surprised if we end up taking him as a one-two pick next year. And those are the type of
10:54players that, hey, in that sophomore year, the ascension could just be the focal part of that, you know, Panthers offense. Also, Panthers play in the NFC
11:01South, you get a lot of dome games, you get a lot of warm weather games, you get a lot of bad defenses with the Saints,
11:07the Falcons, and the Bucks. So, like, yeah, I mean, as much of their offenses can support it, the Panthers are at
11:12least going to be trying to get into some shootouts. So, I like that. As for Josh Allen, from a basketball perspective, there are just too many
11:19other quarterbacks that I like later in draft that I can end up going with a 3QB team. The data suggests that 3QB is
11:26stronger, especially when you're stacking it for these playoff structures. And so when you take Josh Allen, you're either then using up too
11:32much draft capital at the position if you're still going 3QB or you're limiting yourself to two, which now leads to a kind of uh it hurts you get
11:39for the playoffs. The second there is if you're going to talk about reddraft, I actually think Josh Allen is a better
11:44focus there. You know, when you know that, hey, I have this one player that I need to start each year. Josh Allen
11:49gives you an amazing median and ceiling projection that you're just not going to get it you know from many other players
11:54at that position. It's just not as important in baseball because your floor and median is um you know is uh it's
12:02neglected. I mean it doesn't doesn't matter as much when you have three QBs and you can just kind of piece meal them
12:07together.
12:08>> It's a really really good point. I think also in reddraft Josh Allen, even though it feels like sort of the square thing
12:13to do where I draft Josh Allen and then there's a few rounds gap between QB2 and maybe even more rounds gap between like
12:21QB3 or QB4. I avoid any chance of like a a pitfall uh any chance of sort of like drafting like a bust at cost where the
12:30Josh Allen as long as he stays healthy is going to be a top three scorer at the quarterback position. He's just so
12:35locked in. You brought up stacking and that's really not the the purpose of this show, but one strategy that I always enjoy talking about with elite
12:44baseball minds like yourself is the notion of stack cuffing backfields. And I remember years ago, I think it was Mike Leone talked about this a little
12:53bit with me and I've talked to Jack about this as well. Sort of another ETR guy that I think is super sharp. Uh, as
12:59well as a couple of high stakes guys. I know uh Billy Musio and Dave Hubard used to do this a lot in like the high stakes
13:05streets. really successful guys there.
13:07But the idea of taking two running backs on the exact same team, sort of leaning into potential fragility at overall running backs, but having sort of
13:17locking down a back field. Is that something you're doing with your builds or is it something that you've kind of gotten away from or sort of open-minded
13:25to it sometimes?
13:27>> Yeah, so we at ETR did some great research on this and I think it was back in about 20 2021. If you Google should
13:34you handcuff your RB and establish the run you'll see the article pop up and the results were that there were you
13:40know well first we had to test does it actually increase like your expected value from a pointswise on your team and
13:46then we also had to test like is there a uniqueness angle that you are gaining um because the field may not be doing it
13:53and such and so the article goes really in depth but the highle TLDDR takeaway is ambiguous backfields it makes sense to take multiple backs in those back
14:01fields now why is one is you're making an overall bet that that running game that that team is solid. And so if the
14:09offensive line stays healthy, if the coaching staff is able to kind of build out an efficient run game, no matter who's back there, all the running backs
14:16kind of, you know, prosper, benefit together. Uh two is from a structure- wise, from a schematics, maybe that team likes to use workh horses. Workh horses
14:24are great for draft, I mean for basketball, for fantasy football. And so if we know that team wants to use a
14:30workhorse, whether we're right and wrong on one of the two, but one ends up pretty successful, maybe there's an injury, now we're more likely to see
14:38that backup move also into a workhorse versus like, hey, this is just a Shawn Payeyton three-headed backfield and we're spreading it out. And then the
14:45third part is, okay, now when we get to the actual fantasy playoffs here, well, what happens when, you know, hey, we
14:52have an injury or something. If you have a three-headed backfield that condenses down to two, that's highly valuable.
14:57both, you know, can kind of win together.
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15:57>> And so the great example was 2023.
16:00You've got Raheem Moster, Devon Achan, and Jeff Wilson at the beginning of the season for that Dolphins with um Mike McDaniel. We don't know really what's
16:07going on. I think all of them were around double digit um double double round double digit round uh draft picks.
16:14Then Jeff Wilson gets hurt and Mike McDaniel great offense. a Shannon's outperforming. Moer still is a very fast downhill runner and they both become two
16:24of the highest advance rate pieces for that season. So when you can kind of find the ambiguous ones, you can make a
16:30bet this year that could be maybe you go Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones. And for that same logic, hey, we're betting on
16:36Kevin Oonnell, we're betting on that offense. Maybe they have kind of they split. Here's a good game for Mason.
16:41Here's a good game for Aaron Jones. Um and it can still work out. Now, the one time we don't want to do it that we
16:47research showed is when you are actually getting into, hey, I'm drafting Gibbs.
16:51Do I take PCA? Um, I'm drafting Bejian Robinson. Do I grab Brian Robinson?
16:55Because you're spending so much draft capital at the top of the draft and that elite guy. It's not worth it in baseball
17:02um to really be kind of handcuffing in the more traditional sense.
17:06>> Unbelievable answer. How about New England with Raandre and Trayvon where they've sort of converged where you'd be dumping like maybe let's call it a sixth
17:16round pick and a seventh round pick if that Justin once in a while it's like a fifth and a sixth. Uh would that be a
17:21little too much draft capital or is that sort of the sweet spot for what could be a top five scoring offense again and two
17:28players where we sort of pulling our head out hair out about where to draft them and who's going to get the usage on
17:33a weekly basis. Yeah, the comp there of when we were doing this research and think about it way back when is Alvin
17:38Kamar and Mark Ingram where both of those were going and I think Kamar was kind of sometimes a firstrounder and then Ingram was still going like seventh
17:46or eighth or maybe you had like you know something around there but they actually were able to show that hey there were
17:52games that both of them were top 10 running backs and they both across the season had a lot of success. So, this
17:58isn't to say that it can't work with the Raandre and the Travon, but the way that I think about that offense, the way that I think about kind
18:05of the ceiling scenarios there, I think it's a little too rich for my blood.
18:09I'll go with maybe the Pittsburgh backfield, I think that's a little one.
18:13It's a little less draft capital, but the Jaylen Warren, Rico Dattle, we know that Aaron Rodgers is able, you know, loves to feed his running backs. We know
18:21that, hey, even last year, both the Gainwell and Warren, you know, were pretty solid picks. So, I think that's one where their cost is a little cheaper
18:28and I could see it working out. The Tvon Raandre is probably just a little too rich for my blood.
18:32>> Yeah, awesome answer. How about uh fifth round? Who's your favorite target, the best value in round five?
18:38>> Okay, I'm going to cheat a little now.
18:40I'm going to go with because I've been getting mostly him in round five, but DeAndre Swift.
18:45>> That's a great answer. Great answer >> for that. Kyle Manongi injury was still very heavy on him. He had careers highs
18:50in year one under Ben Johnson. Um he let's see he still showed you know upside that you don't normally think of
18:57with DeAndre Swift where he had five games of 20 plus half PPPR points. Um I still want to get a lot of pieces of
19:04this offense and I think that DeAndre Swift is just kind of you know before this middle guy injury was just kind of
19:11getting overlooked.
19:13>> I love the answer. I mean we've we've heard some beat reporters yesterday. I think it was uh Courtney Cronin of ESPN
19:19was saying that there's people internally saying that Swift would had the best training camp of any skill position player on Chicago so far. He's
19:27sort of like this boring pick structurally but could give you low-end RB1 production and like you said was going inside of round five for a while.
19:35I think as we get to the end of the summer, probably more likely going to be like a late fourthrounder because when
19:40you look at sort of the running backs surrounding him, there's a lot of question marks with guys like David Montgomery with Bashel Tutin, even with
19:48like Cam Scataboo, uh, with the injury reagravation. On the flip side, you've got Manongi with the knee, the hyperextension knee, and Swift's like
19:57role as a receiver, I think, has a little more room to run this year in Chicago. And we know he's been very
20:02consistently good. And we know Ben Johnson's sort of the running back whisperer. I went with Jameson Williams because I'm a sucker for Jameson
20:09Williams. And I think the Sam Laaporta injury has sort of opened up. We could get second half of the year Jameson
20:15Williams like right out the jump. And we know how spike week friendly he is. And I just feel like Jameson is sort of we
20:24had a lot more it feels like we had a lot more hype on him last summer, Justin, when we were in August. I
20:28remember going on a lot of shows and people were like Jameson Williams, Jameson Williams. Now he's just sort of sitting there. And maybe it's me being
20:35an agist, but I like him more than a lot of those old guy wide receivers. Even the Mike Evans, Devonte Adams, all those
20:43sort of guys, they go right near him. I find myself clicking the button on JO.
20:48>> Yeah, I like that one. I think uh we've mentally kind of pigeon holed him into just being that field stretcher, but he
20:55disproved us a decent amount last year.
20:57Um and I could definitely see another elevation this year. How about sixth round?
21:02>> I'm going to go to the quarterback position now. Uh and this is I think my highest drafted QB Jaden Daniels. Um
21:10whether it's just people, you know, we might be getting this dis like there might be a theme here with these injury
21:16discounts, the Garrett Wilson, the Jaden Daniels. Uh but people kind of forget that rookie year his rushing ability, he was actually pretty solid passer. And
21:26now you look at the new coaching staff, they're talking about, hey, we want more under center. More under center leads to
21:31more play action. More play action leads to more efficiency. Also, more scrambles. All positive fantasy goodness. Plus, you've got the addition
21:38of diggs. You've got McLaren healthy. I think there's just a, you know, I think like you can tell yourself a story of
21:44why he's a great pick. And also, even if he's like just guesses median outcome, I think it's still a strong value with
21:50where he's drafted. We can get into the whole specifics. I wrote an article about this about how he's actually a value in baseball which is setting the
21:58larger market because no one is fighting over him. Only the McLaren drafter is the only other commander drafted before him. So he falls to wherever McLaren
22:06drafter ends up going. And you compare that to a Dak who you've got the Lamb and the um Pickkins drafters fighting
22:15over him. The Caleb where you have the Odun, the Luther Burden, the Swift, the Lovelin all fighting over him. But because no one's fighting over Jaden
22:24Daniels, he just falls and we mentally are like, "Oh, okay. That's where he should go."
22:29>> I I love that answer with Jaden Daniels.
22:31I think it's a terrific one. I went with sort of like another like quote unquote one-off position. Uh Tyler Warren for me
22:37in this round where I think if it all goes well, Tyler Warren could lead all tight ends in catches and targets this
22:43year. I think we've also got sort of the wrinkle that could they embrace a little bit more of that Taesm Hill stuff that
22:49we saw coming out of Penn State. We didn't really see it last year, but sometimes we see year 2 leaps in terms
22:55of usage and it's not always what we're predicting. Like the of course we want more targets, more catches, but could be
23:02like, hey, let's let's line them up, see if we can get a couple of tush push snaps, maybe keep Jonathan Taylor a
23:07little bit fresh using Tyler Warren when we're sort of trying to figure out Seth McGawan versus DJ Giddons. It might actually be just let's get Warren these
23:15sort of uh touches. But love your Jaden Daniels take. Thought that was great.
23:19You got a sign over your head. Predict predict Q. What is this? What is this? I know everybody knows your ATR here, but
23:25talk about your new venture here, Justin.
23:27>> Yeah. So, predict Q.Market is the website. You can check it out. Uh, we're trying to help people that are whether
23:33it's sports betting, whether it's prediction markets. We'll find you what the best odds are. We're providing you with tools to actually do your research
23:39content to help you kind of, hey, understand what we should be doing here.
23:43And especially people who are heavy sports betterers are in the fantasy sports world like you've heard of prediction markets. They're rather
23:50confusing. There's markets, there's limit orders, there's order book, there's liquidity. We're trying to simplify all that for you and just help
23:56you make money in that space. Um, so check it out predict.market or if you have any interest, just send me a DM.
24:02Always happy to chat about that.
24:04>> Yeah, awesome. Definitely want to check that one out. Let's talk about round seven. And I'll say I feel sort of seen
24:10because you'd mentioned Dak Prescott before, but I do like clicking the button on Dak here in round seven. Uh I like Pickkins. Not a whole lot of CD
24:18Lamb, but I do like Pickkins a lot and I feel like I get that correlation with Dak. And then just from a general
24:23offense perspective, the Dallas Cowboys are a threat to lead the NFL in total scoring. We have no question marks about their offensive line. and Dak I think
24:32could put up huge touchdown total numbers, huge yardage total numbers, and I feel like just he's a really solid pick in that range. There's a couple of
24:40wide receivers in that range that I think are interesting, but I find myself gravitating gravitating towards Dak with an 80 80th overall ADP.
24:49For me, I'm going to go with, which might be one of the more boring wide receivers this year, which is kind of
24:56surprising given the actual player he is, but I'm going to go with DK Metaf.
24:59Last year he had a career low 11.3 A dot which was forced by check down heavy Aaron Rogers. He still though cleared
25:061.83 yards per route run. I believe this year you're going to have Pitman's going to play a little more to that line of
25:12scrimmage and lower A dot and this allows DK Mechaf to take that more traditional role that we're used to which is where he can also get that
25:18explo those explosive plays. Um I think when a pure projection standpoint this is also just one of those examples where I don't want to touch Pittsburgh. You've
25:26got a bad quarterback. They play slow, all of that. But I mean, like, from a pure raw standpoint, like I just think
25:32DK Mechaf shouldn't be going at his 7480p or where it is.
25:37>> How about when we go into round eight?
25:41>> All right, let's stay with Pittsburgh, but this time we're going for Rico Duttle. Um, Rico Duttle, you know, back-to-back thousand yard seasons. We
25:50saw the workload potential last year in the two game sample size. And you know, there's also multiple murmurss we've been hearing that Rico Dattle is the
25:59number one back in Pittsburgh. And I don't expect that to mean he's going to be a workhorse or anything, but even
26:04just the fact that that's being discussed, it's not surprising to think, okay, Jaylen Warren just going to continue to play that more complimentary
26:11passcatching role. And I talked about it earlier, but running backs and Aaron Rogers offenses and with Pittsburgh last year, yes, I know it's a new coaching
26:18staff, but it's still Aaron Rogers there, like have had success. And so for me, I think that like we are getting we
26:25are paying 1B running back price for someone who could be the 1A or even you know higher workhorse potential especially if there ends up being a
26:35Jayla Warren injury.
26:37>> I think that's a really really good uh answer there. Dattle is certainly one you brought him up in sort of the stack
26:42cuffing narrative where Warren and D I think will both score points this year.
26:46Um, for me when we get to this round, for me it's looking at like Trevor Lawrence because I talked about Dak, but
26:52also the ability to correlate with T- Laws there and just the ability to sort of beat his ADP once again. QB10, which
27:00is a a pricier uh number for Trevor Lawrence than we're used to in previous years, but it felt like he took a big
27:06step forward over the second half of last season, giving us like QB1 overall production for a long uh sample size.
27:13And I just trust the Liam Cohen offense like you talked about in in this underdog ADP and in best baseball you
27:20can do these two three quarterback builds and I think Trevor Lawrence has really been one of those foundational low QB ones that I've been attacking.
27:27The other player that sort of piggybacking off of your Jefferson take Jordan Addison sitting at 88 overall has been a player that I've been clicking
27:35on. I think if Minnesota can return to what we're used to with them offensively, Addison, while his return is definitely not going to be sort of as
27:44dramatic as Justin Jefferson potentially challenging for wide receiver one overall, Addison becoming fantasy viable again in the double-digit rounds in Reed
27:52raft and then here in baseball. 19 touchdown catches over his first two seasons as a pro and people are kind of
27:58leaving him dead and buried this year.
27:59Uh so I'm very much into him. How about getting into round nine?
28:05Yeah, very aligned with that Jordan Addison take. I think I have 16% of him.
28:09He's my second highest right behind Dow for that round. For this one, I'm now going to go to the quarterback. And I'm
28:14going to go for Matthew Stafford. Led the NFL in passing yards last year and touchdowns. Only had eight picks. He had
28:20four games with four plus passing TDs.
28:22So, this offense is just built for fantasy goodness. And normally, you know, you don't want to take QBs that don't have any rushing upside, but when
28:29you're getting in in round nine, when you look at the macro lens of where all these other quarterbacks are going and
28:35his ability to stack, you know, again, basketball talking, but when you have Dvonte, when you have Puka, when Stafford has a big game, his pass
28:42catchers are having that good game, too.
28:43And if you want to throw on the Terrence Ferguson or the Kobe Parkinson later on, like it is just a winning success for
28:49when Stafford has big games, so do his pass catchers. It's a parlay that makes it easier and you don't have to get
28:54multiple things right when you know that Stafford is going to be, you know, like throwing those touchdowns. That's where he gets his points. Um, I'm just saying,
29:03hey, like we got a discount last year with the injury. It's not that much different now. And he just came off that
29:09MVP season, so give me Stafford, especially when I'm stacking.
29:13>> Yeah, I think that's a really fun quarterback round in general. And then Stafford obviously it's it's sort of like last year. He's just so beat up.
29:21Pretty much him and Jared Goff are both guys that could throw for an exceptional amount of touchdowns and you're getting him for cheap. For me in this round, I
29:29gravitate towards the tight ends, the big passcatching tight ends where I think it's Kyle Pittz and I think it's Harold Fannon Jr. I understand sort of
29:36with Pitts, he took this big step forward last year. We have minimal wide receiver target competition at the wide receiver two spot. Sounds like it's
29:44going to be Jan Datson there, sort of a cap target ceiling player. And we also have a history of tight end success in
29:51the Stfansky offense. I think Pitts is set to return value where he's going.
29:55Fannon, I wish we would have seen a Shadur Sanders run out because we know he had a lot of those spike weeks with
30:00Sanders. I'm very much into the rookie wide receivers in Cleveland, but I think having Harold Fannon Jr. surrounded by the two rookie wide receivers a lot
30:09early in the year, I think Fannon could end up with still a very good target share in sort of a challenged offense.
30:14So, I'm looking at at the tight ends in in that range. How about we go into what is this now? Uh, round 10. Which way you
30:22going in this round, Justin?
30:24>> Sticking with quarterback here. And it's between two QBs that I'm highly stacking. Either Kyler Murray or Jordan Love. And so in a, you know, one one
30:33draft sample, if I've got to choose between the two, I think I'm going with Kyler. And so from the Kyler, he had six
30:40straight QB1 seasons before that rough 2025. He still was averaging around like 37 rushing yards per game. I'm not sure if we quite see that this year, but I
30:51think we're still expecting kind of 25 to 30, which is just a solid, hey, helps with that floor from a fantasy
30:57production. And I'm still I'm continuing my my bet on Kevin Oonnell. Now, there is some risk here. I don't want to
31:04ignore that. If the Vikings are out of the playoffs by week 16, week 17, the fantasy playoffs, I do think there is
31:11legitimate risk that they say, "Hey, let's bench Kyler. Let's put in JJ just to see what we still have in him. They
31:17kept g they gave him more pre a longer preseason leash than I expected with these, you know, kind of subbing in for
31:24first snacks. So, it scares me a little, but you know what? I'm playing that the Vikings are going to be good. Kyler's
31:29going to be solid and that he's able to play for them the entire year. I I really like the take in this round. For
31:35me, it was really hard for me to come up with one particular name. Kenneth Gainwell. It's a little bit of cheating
31:40because I think he goes in round nine a lot, but when he's there in round 10, I think he's a really fun player. Uh we've
31:45heard a couple of the I think it was Greg Omen or Almond for the Bucks. Uh one of the big beat reporters, uh it was
31:52sort of a throwaway line by him and I don't know if it was hyperbole, but he said he wouldn't be surprised if Kenneth
31:57Dainwell leads the Bucks in catches this year. I think he's going to be heavily utilized in the passing game. We know
32:03that there is a chance Bucky Irving misses some time because the shoulder was already bothering him before. He missed time last year and he's a
32:09slighter back. And we know just how effective Kenneth Gainwell was last year and how these quarterbacks and offensive coordinators both seem to sort of
32:18gravitate towards him. Really good pass blocker, does all the little things. I also like Casey Conpion a ton in that range. I think that the Browns have
32:26really good players in a really ugly situation, but we could potentially hit on multiple ADP values if they're just like the 25th best offense instead of
32:34the 32nd best. And I think Casey Conpsion's an electric talent. And then George KD, George KD sounds like he's going to maybe miss one week. And
32:42Justin, I love for reddraft. It sounds like uh we had Jeff Mueller on and KD has said that he is not going to get on
32:49the plane unless he's playing. And we know that the 49ers are leaving one week before their Australia game. So KD is
32:55going to do us a solid. We'll know if we have to scramble and reddraft. But in baseball, KD, I think, has a chance to
33:01have do what he does every single year.
33:03And he's sort of going lower than some of the Tucker Crafts, Leaportas, Fannins, Pits, going in a range that I think he's going to potentially return a
33:11lot of value. And actually, it's interesting. He's going right next to dribbling. They're neck and neck in ADP right now uh on underdog. Uh any
33:19thoughts on those guys? anything stand out to you?
33:22>> I love all three of them. I think the cherry on top for the gain well is there's some murmurss that Shawn Tucker
33:26may actually not make the team. And if he was to get cut, the question then becomes is who's getting these goal line
33:32reps? And you know who didn't get goal line reps last year? Bucky Irving. And so maybe if Shan Tucker didn't make the
33:39team, that's actually a boost for Kenneth Gainwell um at getting more of that goal line work. So I love that.
33:44Love the KC1 for me with the George KD.
33:47I wrote an article earlier that he's kind of my was my highest owned or highest uh the bullish on from a tight
33:53end perspective. We were also getting him in like the 120s. I still think he's a solid value now as we continue to see
33:59the health kind of positive reports. And that'll lead me into my round 11 guy because I think in reddraft leagues if
34:05you take KD and you want to have kind of hey let me grab another tight end for those early couple weeks. Dallas got it.
34:11Dallas got it when AJ Brown was not on the field last year. He had a 26.4% 4% target rate, 2.65 yards per route run.
34:19That's top two among tight ends. That gives him elite usage when AJ Brown wasn't on the field. Now, we're not going to say that that's just going to
34:25easy pro, you know, easy just to, hey, play that out for this year. But especially in the early season when Mai
34:31Lemon is still coming off the injury and hasn't fully ingrained himself in the offense when you really just have the Devonte Smith, I think Dallas Goddard is
34:37set up for a great year. But even more so, those first couple games, if you're missing KD, grab Dallas. I love that
34:45one. And and Goddard's been a real target of mine in reddraft as well.
34:49Tight end 15 price tag, 11 touchdown catches last year. His situation got better because of the loss of AJ Brown.
34:56Mai Lemon has not been on the field. I know Mai's back now, but the chances of Mai Lemon being like a a rapidly fast
35:04starter out the gate are sort of a little bit considerably lower than if he would have had a full-on training camp.
35:10And like you said, Goddard not only had the touchdown grabs, but a very high target share. The splits have been really solid for him over the years when
35:17guys have been out. So, I'm with you.
35:19He's really good. Round 11, I've also liked drafting Baker Mayfield. Uh I think Baker Mayfield in round 11 could pay off in a major way. We all know that
35:28he hasn't received the contract. It feels like you're going to get a little bit of yolo baker where the touchdown numbers might not be 2024 level, but
35:35they could be closer to 2024 than maybe the the ADP is reflecting. And there's chances to correlate him in a in a bunch
35:42of ways. I brought up Gainwell, certainly if you have Ibuka, Godwin, and then there's the later targets where Jill McMillan I think is a really fun uh
35:51target in pretty much all formats, but if you want to go like 18th round, guys like Ted Hurst fall into that range.
35:57though and Kate Uton certainly is one of the last sort of draftable tight ends.
36:02So Baker very very easily easily correlated. Your thoughts on round 12.
36:07Now we start getting a little bit murkier sort of in the weeds here. Um but these are very important picks. And
36:13Justin, when we get to these like final six rounds, is there any sort of macrolevel strategy that you think uh or
36:20big mistakes that you see managers starting to make when we get into like the endgame, the final third for best baseball?
36:27Yeah. So, for best baseball, I think it really is is just kind of filling out that roster, but doing it with where you
36:34can kind of get the best either, you know, projection or upside and not just fitting it to, well, I need to finish
36:41with a 3683 or a 3573 or whatever that roster construction is. Um, so for me, if I invested heavily at running backs
36:49and I grabbed two running backs in the first three rounds, okay, awesome. Now, I'm going to be looking at to figure out
36:55like how do I get complimentary backs here? Am I looking to make this just a four or five RB team and then I just
37:00want somebody who's going to be seeing the field or did I only grab one early?
37:03This is going to be a six running back team and I know I'm going to have the quantity so let me just be going for
37:08upside with these picks. So, it's really just like figuring out how do you tell how does your team tell a story from a
37:14reddraft angle? Obviously, very different. You don't want to be going after these wide receivers that you're, you know, on best ball give you spike
37:21week, but in reddraft, when do you actually feel comfortable starting them?
37:25Instead, going for those running backs that, hey, when there's an injury, you know, this player has the projectable volume of putting them in. And that's
37:32where my round 12 is a quarterback, but it's someone that you're going to very know, you're going to know very quickly
37:38whether or not he's able to give you that value. And that's Malik Willis just rushing QB. Is he gonna suck? I don't
37:45know. Is he going to have great pass catchers? Well, there's actually been some positive news on Caleb Douglas.
37:50We've got Chris Bell coming back. They still like Malik Washington. Um maybe you have the Dolich. Like maybe this team just isn't as bad from a passing
37:58standpoint. If they can even be just like, as you mentioned with Kansas City, like 25th worst, then you throw on Malik's rushing ability. I think that's
38:06one where draft him in that cheap price and from a reddraft standpoint, you can get rid of him. or from a best ball,
38:12he's still going to likely give you spike weeks when he can just throw for one or two touchdowns combined with what
38:16he's doing on the ground.
38:18>> Yeah, I I love that one. I have a ton of Malik Willis and you bring up like the three QB builds. He's like the perfect
38:23number three quarterback in a lot of those builds. Um the rushing upside is immense. I've seen some of these books that have him listed at like 549 and a
38:32half rushing yards. That feels like a and I'm not I don't rarely give out like sort of the prop bets, but if he just
38:38starts the entire year, I think he's going to crush that rushing total. The NFL season is right around the corner and it's time for Survivor contests.
38:46Rotoire is partnering with Splash Sports for two Survivor contests. There's the $100,000 NFL Survivor. That's a $15 entry. Pick one NFL team to win straight
38:58up each week. No spread, no repeats.
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39:10count. It's got to be rushing, receiving, or returns only. That's a $25 entry gets you 50,000. Ian Hardit and I are both competing in this one. So, you
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39:25Rotoire and you are going to get a 50% deposit match. That's a 50% deposit match using the code rotoire. Go to
39:34splashports.com/rotoire and I'll see you in the contest. For me, when we get into round 12, I like Woody Marks where I think that there's a
39:44little bit of split potential in this backfield. And with Marks, I'm able to get the passcatching upside. There's certainly the contingent upside if
39:53Montgomery were to miss time. But even in the weeks that David Montgomery gets a heavy workload, I think Woody Marks can give me usable weeks at the running
40:01back position due to his pass catching ability and I think he's going to be on the field a pretty good amount. So, I've
40:06sort of played catch-up with him. Uh, let's get into round 13. Any guys sort of standing out to you? Um, honestly,
40:15when we get to this late in drafts, who's round 13, 14, 15, 16, all really kind of just blends together. And so I'm
40:20really just looking at like, okay, who are the players that I, you know, maybe want to be adding that I haven't been
40:25taking as much earlier, I want to double down on. One of those players for me right now is Trey Tucker. We got some a
40:31positive, uh, I'd say, you know, just reading that he leaves from the preseason with Jaylen Naylor actually being out on the field while Trey Tucker
40:38getting the healthy scratch. I believe he's wide receiver one in that depth chart. And really when you look, there's not much around him besides the Brock
40:46Bowers and, you know, maybe Michael Mayer. Uh, and now has he done it before? It's a oneame sample size, but we saw last year he had that eight
40:54catches, 145 yards, three touchdowns.
40:57This, you know, you know, it's just so late in drafts to be getting what might be a young semi-talented number one wide
41:04receiver. And if you're talking baseball, you have the ability to then late stack him with a um, Mendoza a round or two later.
41:13>> I actually had Trey Tucker written down as well. I think you're spot on with this one. I think a lot of the early off
41:18season were was people sort of gravitating towards Jaylen Naylor. But I think Tucker could end up filling if we trying to look for like a this year's
41:25version of if Brock Bowers is sort of filling a JSNesque role but at the tight end position then maybe we could look
41:33back to Clint Kubak in New Orleans and we could see Trey Tucker in sort of a Rasheed Shahed role. I think he could
41:40return a lot of value. like you said, this sort of range, it's harder to predict guys when they're going to be
41:45available. It's sort of a little bit more get your guy. So, I'll go with round 13 and 14 sort of combine here.
41:51Tucker's a great name. I'll also throw Jaylen McMillan in there where if there's a chance that Amecha Ibuka has the toes sort of lingering. McMillan, I
42:00think, uh, had his own little injuries early, but he's back. The market's sort of treating him like he's still injured.
42:05He's back at training camp. I think he could put up a number of spike weeks.
42:08Uh, I talked about Baker before. or I'm into that Tampa Bay offense. Tai Spears I like a lot. Uh I think that that
42:16Spears can end up being a very useful sort of passcatching back, especially in baseball. Uh Tennessee is a mess. The offensive line's a mess. And we saw sort
42:26of some usage in the preseason where Spears is getting a lot of first team usage and I think his pass catching
42:32ability would sort of make sense on a team that's going to need to get the ball out of Cam Ward's hands a lot. And
42:37I'll throw probably a little bit of a swing guy that could go in round 13 or 14, but I think Brentton Strange gives
42:43me a tight end with access to a really good offense and he's sort of beat up a little bit because people gravitate
42:49towards the wide receivers. Now we've got Jacobe Meyers who's dealing with a thumb injury. Could that sort of linger into the regular season? And we saw
42:57Strange put up spike weeks last year at different times of the year, especially beginning of the year with Trevor Lawrence. So I think Strange is an
43:04interesting one. Any thoughts on the guys I just talked about, Justin?
43:08>> I like them. I had Jayen McMillan as one of mine as well. Uh Brandon Thorne uh puts the Bucks as a top five offensive
43:15line. Now, there's often fragility with this stuff, but if they can stay healthy, I think that's really strong.
43:20If you've been watching the quarterback show on Netflix, you'll see that Baker had to play through that shoulder injury all last year. And yeah, with the, you
43:27know, Mike Evans goes over to San Francisco. Abuka, we're a little, you know, I'm not sure on the injury. Chris Godwin two years remove now what a year
43:35and change removed from that injury before that he was elite but does he have you know is he really gonna bring
43:41that efficiency back I'm not sure so I think there's a lot to like about Jaylen McMillan I think early on people were a
43:46little too bullish on the Ted Hurst and thinking like oh he's going to you know take over Jaylen's role I don't think
43:51that's the case um so yeah I love that pick >> now ju just for time sake why don't you give us a couple of your final picks and
43:59let's go really choice a couple of guys that you're really into when we get into like round 15, 16, 17, and I think the
44:07most important round 18, Justin, where I think a lot of people don't know what to do in this final round. Help him out
44:13with a couple of really strong endgame candidates.
44:17>> Yeah. Um, let's go for I think my highest owned tight end, uh, particularly on drafting is because it's 20 rounds is Michael Mayer. I think that
44:27we are current, you know, when we're in the 20th round, we're often looking at, well, look at this running back who has
44:31contingency upside because if Jonathan Taylor gets hurt, then maybe Giddens or or McGowan end up taking that or if McAffrey gets hurt, there might be a
44:38Kaylin Black or a Jordan James, but you still have to get it right and there's still that injury. With Michael Mayer,
44:43one is he actually might give you usable weeks just as the kind of number two, number three pass catching option in
44:50that offense when Bowowers is healthy.
44:53We've seen it, you know, even preseason he had the touchdown, but even last year when you had some Bowers, you had the
44:57two of them on the field. I think we can expect that this year with what their wide receiver core looks like. But if
45:01Bowowers goes down, Michael Mayer becomes a top six, seven projected tight end for each week. And like you just can't get that
45:12at any other position. Um, and so and we know with like there's no other competition for him for that backup.
45:19Like we have certainty. He's one that I'm often doing three, maybe even four tight end drafts for best with the 20
45:24rounds. And Michael Mayer loves stacking on there.
45:28>> Really, really a fun one. Ryan Heath, uh, when I was at Fantasy Points was sort of talking up Michael Mayer for
45:33months and months and months, has been a guy that he's mixed in in a ton of his best balls as well. Is there a like a
45:40final draftable running back? You hear people wide receiver seems to go on forever. Is there like a if you need you
45:46mentioned the structure the structure Justin it seems like you're open-minded in sort of how you build your teams this year. Uh you mentioned the three QB
45:55builds but let's say you need to sort of catch up at running back. Is there a running back you find yourself clicking
46:00on maybe in round 16 17 18 more so than others.
46:05>> Yeah. So like Brian Robinson is probably the one where his ADP is 186 and I just don't understand why. Um, I'm not
46:12expecting him to have the Tyler Algae role, but I'm also not expecting the Falcons just to say like, "Okay, Bejan, we're going to give you literally
46:18everything." So, I think Brian Robinson could have some just, hey, games here or there where he gets a couple touchdowns or some usage. Um, or if Bejan does
46:26actually get hurt, it's not a lock, but I think Brian Robinson actually becomes the a primary back in that offense. And
46:33for his price, I think it's really solid. If I want to go even later, last round or so, I'm going to go Kamani
46:38Videl. Um, we've t, you know, we've had the expectation from Mike Mana that they're going to be using all three running backs. He said it in the press
46:45conference and this is a player that when Omarian Hampton was hurt last year, they used him as a workhorse. Even in
46:52that playoff game, they still use him that way. If Omaran Hampton were to get hurt, sure, Katon Mitchell might get a
46:58little more uptick, similar to what you'd expect of a Justice Hill or something if Henry went down, but I'm not expecting Katon Mitchell then become
47:05the starting running back. I'd expect it to be by Dell. So, at the very last round, you're getting an explosive offense, strong offensive line, coach
47:13that likes to use his running backs as weapons. And so, you have some weekly upside. And then, if there were an
47:20injury, I think Vidal, oh, probably projects as a top 15 running back if Hampton went down.
47:29Um, pulling that up from the hip, but I think that's pro that could be about right.
47:33>> That sounds about right to me. Uh really really strong stuff today. Before we get you out of here, a couple of questions.
47:39I think a lot of people want to know your interest level in Ashton Genty and at what cost. Now, the time we're
47:47recording this, Justin, today it's the information age, so we could get a huge news dump in a couple hours on Genty,
47:53but by the time we're recording this, sort of there's a lack of clarity on the severity of the ankle injury, uh how
47:59long he's going to miss. sort of when we have no information, are you more likely to sort of take shots on him or are you
48:07going to take a step back and sort of what would be a number as of today? And we we are recording this one for the
48:13record. We're recording this on Tuesday the 25th where where is your interest level in him and the and sort of a price
48:20tag you'd be comfortable with Ashen Genty?
48:23>> Yeah. So, for me to dive into this, I need to think through like, okay, how many games are we expecting to miss? Is
48:28this going to be a lingering issue? What is it? Is this role going to change at all? The way I'm thinking about it is
48:33well, first off, if you look at Kawoshi, the expectation is that he's about 38% right now to play week one. And so, you
48:39know, you take into account, okay, so 60% he misses week one. What's the additional chance he misses the next week, you tie it in, I think it's fair
48:46to assume he's going to miss about a game and a half as an estimate projection. Uh these type of injuries, ankles do lead to some kind of
48:53downstream efficiency loss. So, we do need to take that into account from our projection. Now, from a game theory aspect, we are playing specifically if
49:00we're talking baseball, we're talking large GBP tournaments. We're going for upside and Ashton Genty all summer has been drafted at that one two turn picks
49:09between 11 to 134. And so, the teams that have him are all very similar, but starting last couple days and going for
49:16the next week or two, he's probably going to be closer to that 23. So, when you are taking him, you're also getting
49:21substantial uniqueness. not only a little extra value from where he went before, but also substantial uniqueness in pairing him with the Gibbs, the
49:28Robinson, those top three elite wide receivers. So, that's where I'm waiting like another day or two with hopes that like, you know, we're going to see I
49:37don't know, maybe it doesn't even matter. Maybe I should just be taking a little more now cuz as I've been doing
49:41it in the early third, I'm willing to take him. He's been going more in that midsec and in the midsec I just don't
49:47think I'm willing to pull the trigger because you may not actually be getting that much uniqueness. Um but uh yeah, I
49:53think that's what I'm thinking from a game theory aspect is when I know he's going to go with a unique firstrounder,
49:58especially one of those three elite wide receivers, I'm more likely to start taking.
50:02>> Yeah, for me I from a reddraft lens, I dropped him down to about that two, three turn area, and it's sort of a risk
50:07tolerance, but there's so many good options where he's going if you want to be a little bit on the safe side. I get
50:15it. But it's just the potential especially in a large scale field like this one to have a Jir Gibbs Ashton Genty type build. It's sort of hard to
50:24pass that up.
50:25>> One one question I ask a lot of guests here and it's a fun one. If you could know the final stats of any single
50:32player in fantasy football this season, who would it be?
50:36>> Yeah, this is always a fun one. And in past years, I felt like there was a more clear answer where if you learned about
50:43this running back or this wide receiver, then you would know more about like the larger team. You could maybe say the
50:49Randre Trivon one. You could maybe go with like a Brian Thomas because you know the Jags are going to have a strong
50:54offense so he can give you more information the others. Uh, but I'm going to go with a player I talked about
50:58earlier and just go with Malik Willis because if we can know that Malik, like knowing Malik Willis's statline, he could be your just absolute draft every
51:07time QB with that rushing upside and boom. If we know that he actually has some passing success, you can get so
51:15much value on all of those pass catchers late in drafts that you're really kind of making a bet that hey, this is going
51:21to elevate the entire offense. I'm now getting some very, very cheap, that's high value stack. So, I think that's the one for me that gives me the best. You
51:28know, if he has either a really strong year or at least an average passing year, both of those worlds can give us a
51:36lot of valuable information.
51:38>> Awesome stuff today from Justin Herszig.
51:40Let everybody know where they can follow you and what you have coming out for the rest of the summer.
51:45>> Yeah, I appreciate it. Thanks for always, you know, hey, chatting and inviting me to Theo. This is always fun to be, you know, talk fantasy football,
51:51especially when we're like what, two weeks away from the season.
51:52>> We're right there.
51:55You can find me justinherszig on Twitter. Uh that's where I've got all my stuff with ETR, with predict Q, uh anything there. And uh yeah, a oh, one
52:04more I'll throw out. ff60.com.
52:06It's a free daily newsletter for fantasy football that just gives you everything that happened the day before in 60 seconds or less. Um check it out. Go
52:14subscribe. Uh you can always unsubscribe if you don't like it.
52:17>> Always uh recommend Justin's work.
52:19Really, really sharp guy and receipts to prove it. Uh, we'll see how he does this year in the best maybe maybe first
52:25two-time winner. I have one baseball mania left. Really excited about that.
52:29Justin, you got like 50 to go. So, happy drafting to you. Make sure you stick with us here right at Roto Wire on the
52:35podcast feed and the YouTube feed. I'm doing a uh FFPC main event draft with a with twotime 350 champion Abib Agatoba.
52:43I'm going to be doing a $350 uh NFC online championship with Davis Madak. On Thursday, Dan Williamson and I are going
52:50to do an NFC prime time. So, if you're into the live drafts we've been doing, we are going to cram a bunch of them in
52:56here. I have shows dropping every single day. Stick with us here at Rotoire.
53:00We're going to help you crush your leagues this

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