9 Fantasy Football HOT Takes That Will SHOCK You!
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Jul 29, 2026
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Wed, July 29, 2026
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0:05>> Dropping hot takes for the 2026 fantasy football season, Theo Greminger joined today by my first ever repeat guest at RotoWire, Jacob Gibbs.
0:16Jacob, you crushed it the first time you were on the show. I had a chance to go on your show, and we said we had to run
0:21it back, but I said, "The people want some hot takes. They want some bold predictions. They want Jacob to come out
0:27here, cut loose." I mean, these are kind of my guys. This is flag plants. We're doing it all today. But, you're going to
0:33set the fantasy world on fire of the the the the stuff you got planned for today's show. Let me else know like sort
0:39of how this came to be and what else you're doing this time of year.
0:44>> Hey Theo, yeah, great to be back. You are absolutely crushing it over here.
0:47It's been really fun.
0:49There's so much content that I'm I've got it like backlogged. Like, it's been hard for me to even keep up with it cuz
0:53I'm of course pumping out a lot of content at Beyond the Box Score, too. So, we just launched a new YouTube channel. You can go check
1:00us out as Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score. We had Theo on. Theo's going to be on again in August. It's
1:06almost August. I can feel it for sure.
1:08Like, it's hot take season.
1:09And I'm coming on today with kind of I guess we could call them like hipster hot takes a little bit. We're going to
1:15get into some players that basically I I feel like I want to talk to you about.
1:19Like, I could we could go on and on about like Zay Flowers. I think Zay Flowers pulls a Chris Olave this year. I saw you maybe
1:26is one of your players today. So, I can uh you might like it. You might like it a lot.
1:30>> Sort of Chris Olave. We got to workshop the the hipster takes though. We got to find a better word for that.
1:36Jacob's got You've got great takes here.
1:37And I like that you're doing it today because, you know, we're not just I mean, I have one of the best players in
1:42in fantasy football doing something amazing as one of my takes, but a lot of your players you you're taking like the
1:48polarizing players. And you're taking strong stances on the polarizing players. Um and I think that's really interesting. And I I know one guy that
1:55we had a chance to talk about on your show that you wanted to lead off things with was Bucky Irving who's fallen like
2:02sort of a rock here going somewhere off the board at like running back 24, running back 25. But like the pendulum
2:09keeps swinging between him being a high-end RB3, low-end RB2. And I feel like it's like a like a a very precarious situation. All it
2:17takes is like a couple of strong Kenneth Gainwell moments in training camp and we could see Bucky here like running back
2:2328. We could also see something else and Bucky Irving could move up a little bit.
2:28Where are you at? What is your hot take on Bucky Irving for this fantasy football season?
2:35>> So Theo came on Build the Box Score and we did a league winning running backs um show and Dan Schneier my podcast
2:40partner brought up Bucky as one of his league winning picks and that surprised me.
2:44Um I think he's a he's a he's a player that we're kind of overthinking in the fantasy sphere where we spend a lot of
2:49time, you know, this off season thinking about these players, thinking ourselves in circles. And so I I'm I fell victim to that as well. And with Bucky I had
2:58come kind of come to the conclusion where if the roles are going to be compartmentalized in this backfield and he's potentially going to lose out
3:04on red zone work and we've seen that from Zack Robinson as new offensive coordinator in Atlanta where Bijan Robinson who's been literally running
3:12back one in success rate on runs from inside of the 5-yard line not get that work sometimes. Give that work to Tyler Allgeier and that would be
3:19extremely frustrating. And so I'm like I don't want that again with a worse player. I love Bucky to death but he's
3:25not Bijan, you know. And so I I mean like how does he have upside, you know?
3:28Like if he's going to lose that, if he might lose passing down work to Kenneth Gainwell, like what's the upside really?
3:35And I think that that really is kind of overthinking it. Um I just had Pat Kerrane on and really what got me
3:40interested in having a conversation with Pat, I had him and Rich Reubar on together, two fantastic guests here on RotoWire, is your show with Pat. He
3:48brought up some players that were kind of um outside of the box upside picks.
3:53Um he brought up Tevin Coleman and McMillan as a league-winning pick. I don't think people think of Tevin Coleman and McMillan as somebody who has
3:59that kind of upside in 2026 because we put these players in boxes and we think we know who they are, what will
4:06happen, what the offensive environment's going to be, but in reality we don't, right? Football's extremely chaotic.
4:11It's only 16-17 games that matter for us in fantasy football, and anything can happen in those games. Anything can happen to the offensive environment as
4:18we just saw with Bucky Irving. His entire offensive line fell apart. His quarterback got hurt. He had his own health-related issues, and he went from
4:25literally like very top of the league, like historically good at yards after contact created, to last among all running backs in yards after contact
4:32created. That's unpredictable, you know?
4:34We just don't know how these things are going to go, and so I don't think it makes sense to assume that we do. And I
4:39think that when it comes to Bucky's ADP and even Team Mac who's falling a little bit, I think people have this idea of
4:45who the player is, and I really just don't think we should put Bucky in a box. Um so where I've gotten him,
4:51why I'm I'm coming around on the upside case and where I think about this, um Bijan Robinson, I've been digging into motion data. Um so motion is of
4:59course important um for real-life football. It's just really swept the league, and then has trickle-down effects to fantasy, right? Heath talks
5:06about it a lot and has done a lot of good research over there. Um you can filter out and look at uh pre-snap
5:11motion, motion at the snap, all that stuff on Fantasy Points Data. It's definitely important thing to be aware of right now. I've been looking at
5:16specifically when players have been used in motion, how that's affected them for fantasy, which coordinators are using players in motion to free up other players or just
5:26get tells on what the defense might be doing, and then which coordinators are using players in motion to get them the ball. And Bijan last
5:34year tied CMC for the second most fantasy points scored as the pre-snap motion man, behind only Travis Etienne, which again is like clear signal like
5:42that's Liam Cohen, you know? That's very much what he likes to do is in the red zone, get his running back involved in
5:46that way. Um, so out of the running back position, Etienne was first in fantasy points scored as the pre-snap motion man, followed closely by Bijan and CMC.
5:55And I think that we're going to see Bucky unlocked in that way. That was one of the things when Zach Robinson was
5:59hired, one of the initial quotes that he had, he talked about Baker a lot, he talked about using Ameca Egbuka in
6:04different ways, and he talked about Bucky and his ability to be unlocked kind of like Bijan, I think, as a receiver. Um, and so I'm really excited
6:12to see that because if, you know, look at the past 2 years while Bucky's been on the league, only Jahmyr Gibbs, Bucky
6:16Irving, and Christian McCaffrey, among running backs with 400 or more routes run, have a higher yard per out run rate than Bijan Robinson does. I think that's
6:24a huge part of his skill set that does go a little bit overlooked.
6:28And to me, it's like yes, Kenneth Gainwell is good at that, you know, he's a good receiving back, but if Bucky Irving is healthy, I think
6:35he's basically a two-good-to-fail type of player. Um, where we did kind of see it last year, but I don't think he
6:41was healthy. And so, if the offense is rolling, I don't think it matters that much what his role is within it. I think
6:48he's too good to take off of the field consistently, and I think he's going to get a lot of, you know, receptions, a
6:54lot of efficient yardage created at the running back, like the the run scheme there, too. Um, I I thought it was
7:01really noteworthy that Brandon Thorn from ETR established a run, he ranked Tampa Bay third looking forward to 2026 in terms of offensive line play.
7:09And that was just not where they were at all last year. That offensive line was decimated by injuries. And so, I think
7:15there's so many reasons anecdotally to believe that Tampa Bay is going to be a lot better, and Bucky's just potentially a really special player within that. We
7:22we've seen that in his rookie season, and then his collegiate data painted his profile as something similar to that, too, in terms of yards after
7:28contact created. So, to see it translate right away, I think is meaningful, and I just want to take shots on that,
7:33especially when he's so cheap.
7:35>> It's a really interesting take, and I think it's interesting to hear you and Pat sort of make this bull case for
7:40Bucky. And you're looking at like where you have to draft him where it's decisions between like Bucky Irving versus guys like Gidarian Price versus
7:50guys like Jaylen Warren. Whereas last year we were having to take Bucky Irving as like a running back one. So it's a
7:57little bit of a post type sleeper here.
7:58I've made several like bearish calls on Bucky Irving in like the early off season but it we were having to make
8:05that call when he was like 20 spots more expensive. Now it's sort of fallen and maybe it's an over correction. I'm a big
8:13Kenneth Gainwell guy. I sort of have made the case that I think Kenneth Gainwell's receiving upside sort of lowers the ceiling case for Bucky. But
8:22if you're right and it's just the efficiency as a runner, potential touchdown equity and you're also still bullish on him catching a bunch of passes
8:31he's efficient enough to really overcome things and the the bar for him to make like a big impact for our fantasy teams
8:40is super low. I mean if he finishes as the running back 14 or 15 at a running back 26 price tag, I mean that's a
8:47significant win for us and if he beats it even a little bit more then you're talking about a potential league winning
8:52value. So I think I want to be more open-minded when I hear you and Pat sort of lay these things out.
8:59Bucky really really interesting.
9:01Anything to kind of I'll add the like the Vita Vea thing. Like when we talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they
9:08already have like a really ridiculous front seven but you've you've made the point about them being sort of a a pass
9:13funnel where if they lose Vita Vea now, they could be even more of a pass funnel defense with with teams look really looking to pass the
9:23ball on them.
9:25The front seven could take a little bit of a hit there without like the huge huge defensive tackle. Uh the offensive line is fantastic. It just
9:34feels like a like a good offense right now, Jacob.
9:36>> Yeah, there's two defenses that I'm really curious about right now and I've I've been kind of like formulating some of these hot takes. I almost brought up
9:43Kyler Murray and Justin Jefferson. It's It's Tampa Bay and Minnesota and I of the two I I have more respect for
9:48Brian Flores and like would be more surprised if he fell off in a big way, but both these defenses is like they
9:53really like to blitz, be super blitz heavy, but I think their secondaries are a little bit suspect looking at 2026.
9:59And so what happens if it's like you love to blitz, but you can't cover behind the blitz? All of a sudden you
10:04might get into a lot of these shootouts.
10:06And so I think the Tampa Bay guys are really intriguing for sure. Um and that's that's kind of where I am
10:11with Bucky. I want to I want to throw this comparison to you and see how it feels. What do you think about just
10:16comparing Bucky to Chase Brown? Um where it's like Chase Brown doesn't have like the third down role necessarily because they don't trust him to pass protect. He
10:24lost out on reps to Samaje Perine at the end of the year and basically any time Perine's been healthy, that's kind of
10:28how it's been. But he gets the targets on first and second down. He's a really important part of the offense there. Um
10:34do you think that makes sense? That kind of sticks where it's like he's in such a good offense and if Tampa Bay's
10:39offensive line plays better, if the defense is bad and they get a bunch of shootouts, it could be kind of similar
10:43to what we've seen from Brown in Cincinnati.
10:45>> I think it's an interesting one. I would say that I would just make a very simplistic argument that the the threat
10:51of the running back two in Cincinnati is to me kind of non-existent when we're >> Yeah.
10:56>> when we're like arguing Tash Brooks uh and Samaje Perine versus Kenneth Gainwell and even to that matter you know, Sean Tucker I think we
11:06we could say is a would be a an upgraded running back two for Cincinnati. But then on the flip side, you know, you've
11:12got in terms of like teammate touch equity and and play design Ja'Marr Chase is exceeding even what I I mean, if we're I'm a I'm a a rookie
11:21bull, but Ja'Marr Chase I mean, I think it's it's a whole different level of player. So it's a really interesting one. I think it's just more of a
11:28open-mindedness for me after hearing you and Pat both on the Bucky Irving thing.
11:33Um and that's why I love talking to really sharp guys like yourself on this show.
11:37>> Bucky averaged over 20 touches per game last year. He's one of five running backs to average over 20 touches per
11:42game and played 10 or more games. He barely had those thresholds, but still Chase Brown didn't hit that. And I think
11:47that that's relevant is like playing time is great, but if they're like hyper focused on getting in the ball when he's
11:52on the field because he's one of the best players, which I think he is, whereas like you look at Cincinnati and
11:56he's like Chase Brown's good, but he's clearly their third best player on offense. Whereas Bucky, I mean, if Bucky's what we saw as a rookie, he
12:03might just be their best player on offense. I don't know. And so that's that's where I'm at with him is it's I
12:07think just within this offense if this is as good as it could be, Bucky could be really important part even if we
12:12don't know exactly how that looks.
12:14>> So you go with Bucky Irving, which is a polarizing player. I'm going to go with the player that everyone loves, but I
12:20don't think they love him enough. And I feel like I'm a little bit of a coward here for doing what everybody else is
12:26doing. And and I love Jahmyr Gibbs. He's my 101. Bijan's my 102 in PPR. And I think a lot of very smart people, like I
12:34know Scott Barrett and and I'm assuming probably yourself, Jacob, and a bunch of other guys I respect have either Bijan at the one or Jahmyr Gibbs at the one,
12:42and then the other one's at the two. But I feel like I'm a little bit of a coward here cuz I'm so bullish on Ja'Marr
12:46Chase, and I might move him into the top two, be a little bit different here.
12:52Ja'Marr Chase is one of the biggest target earners we've ever seen in NFL history.
12:56And I think it gets sort of underrated how good he is as a target earner. Last year he had the 10th most targets in NFL
13:02history with 185. The year before he was, I believe, 175.
13:07And I think it doesn't stop.
13:09I I made this this I made this prediction on a show with Garrett Price, a dynasty show I did last week, but I'm going to double down on
13:16it. Ja'Marr Chase sets the NFL record for the most targets in a season this year. Runs incredibly pure. We've had three guys have over 200 targets in NFL
13:25history, the last one being Julio Jones in 2015.
13:29Uh We also saw of course you know, we've got guys like we got to go back to like Marvin Harrison to go for like the the
13:37record in 2002. But really it's a of course Calvin Johnson also got there.
13:44But with Jamar Chase I think that the the sky is the limit this year for him.
13:48And could we end up seeing a 2021 Excuse me, was a Cooper a peak Cooper like season where he just goes nuts and
13:58Jamar Chase is like the win rate guy for everyone. I think he sets the NFL record with 210 targets this year. And I think
14:05he becomes the third most receptions in NFL history, gets north of 140 receptions as well. I think we're back to clear wide receiver one overall. I
14:15think we're maybe overthinking things a little bit. I get it. Puka Nacua is a is a very intriguing player right next to
14:21him and I'm drafting some Puka Nacua.
14:24Jackson Smith-Njigba, I've made arguments that I think he's kind of too big to fail, but we do have question marks about the the play caller
14:33and potential regression there in terms of a few metrics. But with Jamar Chase I don't have any question marks. It's a
14:39full on healthy Joe Burrow season.
14:41Cincinnati I think just goes nuts as an offense and I think Jamar Chase has his best season ever as a pro even better
14:48than he had in 2024 when he set the fantasy world on fire. 210 targets that's a big takeaway though. NFL record
14:55is set in 2026.
14:58>> I love it man. I just realized that I didn't actually like make a hot take. I was just like Bucky's awesome. So it's
15:04you We're yeah.
15:08Stick into it. I'm going to say Bucky returns to the round one two conversation next year for next year drafts and that's where it was last
15:15year. I think that's important when that happens with a player where it's like last year this guy was so good in
15:20basically the same circumstances where Rashad White was there as a clear passing downs back and we were drafting him near round one and like now he's
15:27like round five, you know. Um I love the Jamar take. He it just I'm going to quickly give his target per route run
15:32rates by year. It's 22% as a rookie then 26%, 24%, 25%. Last year it's 29 and a half percent. And I think that's really
15:41important because of the usage. Like it's not a random one-year spike. Like his slot rate continues to go up, his pre-snap motion rate continues to go up.
15:50I think we're seeing this with like him and Justin Jefferson and some of these players is like because they were so
15:56good early on, we were kind of forget how young they are and it's like this dude is literally just now entering his
16:02prime. Jamar Chase is the NFL wide receiver primes typically come like age 27 to 29, 26 to 29. He's going to be 26
16:10this season, you know, like he's just now getting to the point where he can have add all this variety to his
16:16route tree, the offense knows how to use him in all these different ways and orient everything around him. And yeah, I think it just because Joe Burrow
16:23wasn't there, we kind of overlooked the fact that he had a freaking 30% target share last year. If you give a player
16:29this good, this type of efficiency, this ability to create massive plays on any given play like a 30% target share, it's
16:36yeah, sky is the limit.
16:37>> Yeah, and he did did it last year with three starting quarterbacks and I think, you know, when we look at I and Justin
16:42Jefferson, I'm betting on a big bounce back season for him this year, but we make excuses maybe not the right word. It is
16:49excuses. We'll say, you know, the quarterback situation for Jefferson was just terrible last year. Um and I think Joe Flacco was was better than what we
16:57saw with Jefferson, but it's still this revolving door for Jamar Chase and he still walks away with this incredible stat line with Browning, Flacco, Burrow.
17:08This year I just think he gets it. I think it's going to be a great pick. If you're able to get him at the 103, that
17:13could be like the best win rate guy even with Jamaal Gibbs just crushing it, Bijan Robinson just crushing it. I think
17:20Jamarr Chase could finish as the wide receiver one by a clear margin. Um, you've got a Emeka Egbuka take. I'm I've
17:27done it for, you know, about 25 shows now, so I'm just going to sit back uh and let Jacob cook on this one.
17:34>> Yeah, take the burden off you. Let somebody else talk about Egbuka. I'm going to say Emeka Egbuka outscores Drake London, um which I know is another
17:40player you like. Um, and I think there's obvious parallels here with the play-caller, London's previous play-caller coming over here to Tampa
17:46Bay.
17:47Um, so I want to again focus on the motion stuff. Brock Bowers is the only tight end who has more fantasy points
17:52scored as a pre-snap motion man than Kyle Pitts over the past two seasons, so that's been super important for Pitts.
17:59Um, Zach Robinson is number one in motion at the snap, motion at the snap of the football last year in terms of
18:04the rate of plays and dropbacks that used it. And that's super super important. If you want to check out the episode I did with Ryan Heath, it's
18:10called Secret to Winning Fantasy Football. Draft good players from good teams. I think that's pretty simply what we have here. Emeka Egbuka is
18:17potentially a really good player on a really good team that uses all of this stuff that we like, that boosts fantasy football
18:25efficiency. Um, so I brought up Bower or Pitts first. I I'm curious who gets that work.
18:31I think it it's possible that either Chris Godwin or even Cade Otton if Godwin is not that guy anymore, um gets some of that short target stuff
18:41that went to Pitts. So, his average depth of target on these pre-snap motion um plays was about 6 yards, whereas Drake London was used more down the
18:48field and also had a ton of these, um and pretty much matched Pitts in terms of this production. So, you've got like
18:54two players really funneled targets through, and then Bijan got some of them as well. Um, I'm as we look at Tampa
19:00Bay, I think it's probably going to be Bucky Egbuka getting maybe kind of both of those roles a little bit where he
19:06gets some of the short stuff. Um, we've seen him be good with that at Ohio State, and then some of the deeper
19:11stuff, too. And then maybe it's Godwin getting a lot of that short stuff too.
19:14I'm not exactly sure what to expect there, but I do feel really good about Abuka. Um and he's a really interesting one. I did
19:21about a 20 or 30 minute episode on just the Mecca Abuka if you want to find that on Beyond the Box Score um where Dan
19:27Schneier and I watched a lot of film. We watched a lot of his film in college too. Um and we're thinking about him and
19:32it's just it's interesting because what we saw from him as a rookie, the ways that we saw him succeed were basically the answers to the
19:38questions that we had about his collegiate profile. And so we knew coming in I've got all the data on this YouTube
19:46video here on Beyond the Box Score if you want to check it out and and think through it all for yourself like we knew
19:51coming in that he could be really good over the middle. Like really, really good. If you look at his his stats over
19:54the middle, it's some of the best among recent college prospects. What we didn't really know is like does he have the
20:00athleticism to do more than that down the field? Can he be an explosive play creator? Can he be a wide receiver one
20:06who wins all over the place? Um and that's really like that's kind of what's in vogue right now in the NFL and for
20:12fantasy football is like these players who can win inside out. Um we just saw with JSN where it's like we know they
20:18can be freaking dominant in the slot, but then if they can also expand that and and you know, get in situations
20:25where their offense can facilitate, you know, mismatches to get them down the field and get, you know, big explosive plays, that's when
20:31they can just go nuts. And I think Abuka Abuka proved that he could do that last year. Um he created a bunch of explosive
20:39plays. He had freaking 20 receptions of more than 20 yards, which tied him with Amon-Ra St. Brown as wide receiver five
20:46last year. Even in that dysfunctional Tampa Bay offense, he was wide receiver five in the gains of 20 or more yards. I
20:51went back and watched all those. Only two of those were like broken plays from the defense. I think a lot of people
20:56thought what was happening early in the year was kind of lucky. Um I think a lot of it was just Baker was willing to
21:01trust him down the field and Abuka was coming down those plays consistently because he's really good. He has fantastic hands.
21:07Um he's one of nine rookies dating back to 2000 to have at least 20 of those receptions of 20 or more yards. Um, and
21:14the the list of those players are are pretty much all freaking fantasy superstars. It's Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Deebo Samuel,
21:21Saquon Barkley, Anquan Boldin, Mike Evans, A.J. Green, and Emeka. Like, who's the worst player on that? Deebo?
21:27Emeka? Like, that feels really good. And that's the question that I had is like, can he do that? Can he give us explosive
21:33plays? Because we know he can win on the short intermediate stuff over the middle. And so, I've got some stats on that that I think are
21:39really interesting, too.
21:41I looked at yards after the catch per reception, specifically on over the middle field targets last year, because I think that's really important. That's
21:49the way to to beat modern defense right now. They're They're kind of giving you that space in the middle of the field.
21:55And if you look at the leaders, the top 10 in yards after catch per reception on middle of the field catches among
22:01qualified players, it's like the best players in the freaking league, dude.
22:05It's Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 10. I'm going up from 10 to 1. JSN, Harold Carmichael Jr., and then you find Emeka Egbuka just
22:12below Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Jameson Williams, Sun God, Tutu Atwell, third I think is awesome, um, Puka Nacua and Nico Collins. As you got three
22:22rookies there, I think that really stands out. Like, this is where defenses are are giving you space, and Emeka was really, really good there, which is what
22:30we saw in college, too. I think there's a reason he went around one is because that's good. That's important right now
22:35for modern offense.
22:38It didn't really translate a lot, though. He actually didn't score a lot of points over the middle of the field, which is weird. And so, when I saw him
22:45show up top 10 in yards after the catch per reception on middle of the field targets, I dug into it a little bit
22:48more.
22:50As a rookie, Emeka Egbuka had a 58% catchable target rate on these middle of the field throws. The next lowest among
22:56qualified players was 72%. So, it's like by far the worst rate. And I think so much of that has to do with
23:03the randomness of all of the injuries last year in Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield, if you watch Quarterback series on Netflix, was playing through like a
23:10litany of injuries, and all of his offensive line were hurt, too. Like his center was playing a left tackle. It was
23:16just a mess. And so, like, I think so much of that, that 58% uncatchable or catchable target rate over the middle of
23:22the field is just kind of random, and that really matters. That because that's where Abuka's at his best. And so, if
23:27that just returns to like normal, which it always does when you have like a league-low number like this, and he can give you explosive plays, and
23:34the offense potentially is a fantasy print shop, then I think Ime Udoka could get out of control, man. I could easily
23:39be like a top five receiver or something. We've seen Zach Gordin and funnel so much volume to his best players. And Drake London like is this
23:48kind of player who can win inside out.
23:49We've seen him push his target share up to 28, 30%. As I look around in Tampa Bay, it's like there's a lot of target
23:55ambiguity here. We don't know exactly where Chris Godwin's at in his career.
23:58Jalen McMillan, I think, is more of like the downfield field-stretching type.
24:01You're probably looking at a 15 to 18% target share there. And so, that leaves a lot of meat on the bone for Abuka. I
24:07think it could just be massive for fantasy.
24:10>> There you go. Nothing else needs to be said. I've I've said 17 and a half points per game. I think I'm one with
24:15you. I'll like a wide receiver six finish feels about right. I took him in the third round of an FFPC main event
24:21the other night.
24:22Um I took him ahead of guys who I like who have like the ap- appeal of previous season success and the like a lure of like the safety
24:32where I took him ahead of Chris Olave, who I think is just another really strong player, but it's an upside swing
24:38with with Abuka. And it's interesting you bring up like the ambiguity of the of the receiving room, where I think a
24:45lot of people are sort of coming around on Chris Godwin right now, but you're talking about a player who's had major
24:49injuries. Then you got guys like Ted Hurst, Tez Johnson, and Jalen McMillan, and I think you're going to find a lot
24:56of bullish people for McMillan, certainly some Ted Hearst enthusiasts, and Tez Johnson had some success last year. You bring up Cade Otton. I mean,
25:04none of these guys are going to be barriers to Ebuka having just a smash, smash season, though. The only player that could be a really like a a
25:13roadblock would be if Godwin exceeds expectations because of his familiarity with Baker. Um, but I'm really not seeing it. I think like looking at for
25:22Godwin to do what he did two years ago is wishful thinking. Um, and I think it's the time for Ebuka. So, there you
25:29go. It's I've said it on a million shows. You can find a million more takes for me from Ebuka. I'm going to try not
25:34to talk about him every single show cuz I'm so enthusiastic about him. One other year two player Okay, so we got a year two player here
25:41that averaged 5.1 yards per carry. He had 35 catches, 911 rushing yards, and 10 total touchdowns. He had four 50-yard touchdown runs,
25:52which is the second most in NFL history, and he did it as a rookie. And he did this in college, too. He was an
25:58explosive play guy in college at the top of the food chain at at a great program.
26:03Um, and averaged the 10th highest fantasy points per touch last year. And everybody's fading him, Jacob. And it's TreVeyon Henderson. And if you got
26:12TreVeyon Henderson out on the old Google machine or wherever you're searching, and you just write TreVeyon Henderson fantasy, you're going to find so many
26:20sites writing this is a bust.
26:23Um, you know, bust, bust, bust, bust, bust, TreVeyon Henderson. Um, you know, it's a lot of smart people out there saying he's going to be a bust this
26:30year.
26:31I again, running back 22 last year in points per game. Um, a great stat. And I And I mentioned this content creator on
26:38several shows cuz I think he's really smart. But Kyle Menton, uh, who I You should follow him on X cuz he drops
26:44really, really good stat-based. I know Jacob follows him. But you should in in the royal sense follow Kyle Menton if If
26:50listening to me. Uh, Kyle did a stat it kind of was a throwaway, didn't get any traction, but it was when AJ Brown got
26:57traded that the New England Patriots faced the third highest percentage of stacked boxes last season. So, teams were stacking the box against New
27:04England last year, and this year they're not going to be able to do it with the AJ Brown addition. Romeo Doubs is going
27:10to help, and even like Eli Reridon stylistically, I think will help there in the two tight end sets with Hunter Henry. Traveon Henderson is sort of like
27:18I'll go like old school here and kind of age myself. It's like the Jurassic Park theory of things in fantasy football. Uh
27:25life finds a way here. And I think when we look back in a couple months, Traveon Henderson at running back 22 is not
27:31going to be the bust. The bust is going to be Rhamondre Stevenson at running back 29. Traveon Henderson is going to
27:36end up being a dead zone hero this year.
27:39He's going to finish as the running back 12 overall. There's a lot of outs here for him to get there. Simply splitting
27:45the backfield with Stevenson and being this incredibly explosive player who's able to house it and be a efficiency demon, that's one out. There's other
27:56outs that Stevenson regresses, gets injured again, uh does have the guy find the fumbles finally catch up with him.
28:03There's so many outs here for Traveon Henderson, but I think year two Traveon Henderson looks a lot better than year one. I think people are being a little
28:10bit fearful.
28:12Um and Traveon Henderson outscoring ends up outscoring every single fifth round running back. Traveon Henderson ends up finishing as a low end RB1/fringe RB1,
28:22uh provides great win rates, and I can see him being an incredibly efficient player over the second half of the season. The beginning of the season, I
28:29think he's fine. He'll be in your flex.
28:31You can even use him as your running back two. Second half of the season, I think a lot of people are going to
28:36capitulate and rank him as a low end RB1 in their weekly rankings. Also, at DFS guy, Jacob, I mean, you could see
28:42Traveon Henderson having a couple of huge weeks like he did last year. So, I'm on Traveon Henderson. I think people are overthinking this talent profile and
28:50the explosiveness and just the rare combination of big play home run hitting ability and he's in a great offense now with all these additions.
29:00>> I think that's really interesting.
29:02Um on the episode I did with Reeb on Beyond the Box Score, him and Pat, uh Reeb brought up some players that he was
29:07like afraid to fade. And most of them are like players at the top of the position, like Josh Allen, Brock Bowers,
29:13Amari Hampton, where it's like you got to really pay a price tag for them, you know, we know what the upside is, which
29:17is why they're going so early.
29:19TreVeyon was the one who he brought up, which clearly stands out relative to those guys, I think, cuz he goes in
29:23round four, five, six, or whatever.
29:26Um and yeah, he it also kind of reminds me of RJ Harvey a little bit. I just had a discussion with Ryan Heath. Um and it
29:33kind of fits into the the conversation we're having about uh T-Mac earlier, where it's like we don't really know what these players
29:40are, especially year one players. Um but we kind of tell ourselves that we do. We tell ourselves because of you know,
29:47these metrics that RJ Harvey sucks. Um we tell ourselves because we saw maybe some vision issues, we saw TreVeyon Henderson lose some work at times as a
29:54rookie that he's not that good or whatever. And it's like, really, like zoom out a little bit. We've got a pretty large
30:00sample size of him being good. Like he was a freaking bellcow running back at Ohio State as a freshman. And he was
30:07taking more work than Quichon Jenkins for the ma- majority of their time together.
30:12And everybody thinks Jenkins is an amazing, right? Like he he looked so good as a rookie and we're ready to crown him.
30:18It's possible, I think, that, you know, these guys could get better in year two, for sure. Um I another thing that Reebs
30:25brought up was Henderson, like and you said the same thing about Jenkins and then he played well, so take it for what
30:30it's worth. Henderson played so deep into the the schedule with the the collegiate uh playoff run and then they're just immediately into the draft stuff, like
30:40getting ready for the combine and everything and then they're just immediately thrown into the NFL. And so, like, they don't really even get an
30:45off-season. And so, I think with him, with Harvey, like, if you had conviction on their talent, it's fair to kind of,
30:52you know, wait and see, especially when you can get them at a discount. Like, why not? He's kind of like Bucky, where
30:57and I think he might even continue to fall as more and more people are make the case for Ramondre.
31:02Um and it's like, if you can get him as a running back two, three, you know, um I think that that that makes a lot of
31:07sense, where he could absolutely be one of the players you need at the end of the season. Another route I think that's
31:12interesting to take with New England is to keep this in the back of your mind and and try to trade for them after week
31:18two, because they're on the road against Seattle in week one, and then they play a what could be just a nasty game
31:22against the Pittsburgh Steelers in week two.
31:24And if Tyquan has, you know, nine points through those two weeks, you can probably buy Tyquan pretty cheap.
31:30Um if they're using Ramondre 70% of the snaps, because they need him to pass protect against those defenses, you could probably get Tyquan pretty
31:37cheap. Maybe even like A.J. Brown, if he struggles those over mean physical wide or cornerback ones, maybe you can buy him low, you know? Like, so, that's
31:45that's another path to take with Hendo, if you don't feel like paying the the draft price. You might be able to get
31:48him even cheaper after a couple weeks.
31:50>> Yeah, he's a really interesting player.
31:52Another interesting player is Josh Downs, and we've seen some positivity coming out early from training camp, and you've got the double-edged sword with
32:01Alec Pierce now on the pup.
32:04Where are you at on Josh Downs? And I'll say that there's this is where like all the bull cases with Downs, you're going to get a couple
32:11people coming out who are sizeists at the position, who are immediately like, okay, I get it, guys, but look at look
32:16at the size for Josh Downs. The track record is not there with guys hitting hitting at this size, who also play on
32:22the outside. I mean, there's obviously some rare exceptions, but the sizeists are out in full force every time you say something nice about Josh
32:30Downs. Your thoughts on Josh Downs, his fantasy ceiling this year, and can he do it as an outside uh you know high snap share guy in
32:41Indianapolis this year potential to maybe lead the Colts in targets this year if it's not Tyler Warren?
32:47>> Yeah, the sizes I think I've got to get over it. Like we are where we are. The NFL is different than it used to be.
32:52Like I love Ted McGillan and everything but like that type of receiver isn't quite as emphasized anymore. Like a lot you're seeing a lot of these small guys
33:01who are able to survive and even thrive and get a massive target share with the way the game is officiated with the way
33:08the defenses are allowed to like play physically with these guys with all the pre-snap motion that's happening to get these type of players free releases. Not
33:14that Downs really needs it. He's fantastic off line of scrimmage against press coverage. But he also does play with Shane Steichen who's awesome at
33:22finding ways to isolate his best players and get them you know in positions to succeed and I think we're going to see a
33:27lot of that in terms of condensed formations and pre-snap motion to get the ball into Josh Downs hands. Both Downs and Michael Pittman were top 15 in
33:35fantasy points scored on pre-snap motion among wide receivers last year. That's something that's been consistent where both of them have been used that way a
33:42lot. I think people realize that with Downs if you watch him you know he's always moving around getting short targets. I don't know people would think
33:48that way about Pittman. I think people kind of think of Pittman as like this outside hulking receiver cuz he's big but they did use him that way a lot and
33:55I think a lot of that just transfers right over to Downs. So my hot take with Downs is I think he is going to be a set
34:00it and forget it wide receiver two. So we'll say top 20 for fantasy and PPR formats. It's dependent on his health.
34:06We need to I mean and that that's the probably the biggest thing with these the sizes. That's probably the biggest thing they would they would have to
34:12point to with Downs is for two straight years you haven't even been able to see the guy get through an off season healthy. He keeps coming into
34:18the season with injuries but it's possible that that gives us a buying window. So I'm going to talk about another receiver
34:25like this in a moment here where it's like I do kind of have a thing for these smaller receivers who can work inside
34:30out and can get just massive volume and that'd be really, really good for fantasy. And two of them this year I
34:35think we have injury discounts on. I think if Downs was coming into the opportunity that he has this year last year, we would see him in like round six
34:43or something. Uh I think people would just be frothing at the mouth to take Downs. And you still have some of those
34:48people, you know, I'm I'm a huge doing that. But you can get him way cheaper this year, you know? And so why am I so
34:54excited is just cuz he's insanely good.
34:56He can beat all coverage type. I did an episode on Beyond the Box Score that's 12 receivers you can beat any coverage
35:00type. And the thesis behind that video was if you can beat man, you can beat zone, you can beat press coverage, then
35:06you present an opportunity to potentially pile up a massive target share, like 25 to 30% target share. And the 12 wide receivers I outlined are
35:14like the best receivers in the whole league and then Josh Downs.
35:17And it's like, what's he doing out here, you know? But if you look at Reception Perception charting, if you look at
35:21Fantasy Points Data's charting, if you just look at the games where Downs has been allowed to play two-thirds of the snaps,
35:28that's what you see is that he can be that type of a target earner. Um another thing that I think is interesting with
35:33Downs that people might not think about is I think he can be weaponized in the red zone.
35:37I think people think of these smaller receivers, whether that's Downs or Zay Flowers, as not players who can ever get that type of red zone involvement. Um
35:46but I think one, he's way better at the catch point than people realize. Matt Harmon has charted this all the way back to his
35:53North Carolina days. Um and if you just watch him, he's a phenomenal athlete. I know he's small, but he's very, very
35:58good in that way. And then the the more important thing I think is you can get him these quick targets because of his
36:04ability to just snap off these routes at the line of scrimmage and shake people.
36:08And that can be really good in the short yardage area, you know, at the red zone.
36:13You just need a little bit of space to get that play and I think that's a a way to win in the red zone that people don't
36:17think of. They think of like, you know, John Ross or Davante Adams, you know, but it's like these shorter guys can
36:22definitely win in the red zone with quickness.
36:24And I think even outside of the red zone, that point's going to be really important for Downs um with Daniel Jones
36:30recovering from a torn Achilles on his plant foot that these plant these these quick targets might be a huge part of
36:36the offense, you know, they might want to get that ball out quickly. Um especially if their offensive line isn't as good as it's been. So, I don't to me,
36:43I don't know if that's going to be as much of the expanded out Pierce role as people think. Um so, the the real worry
36:51I have is what if the Colts offense just sucks?
36:55If the Colts offense sucks, if it's just dysfunctional, if Daniel Jones just plays poorly, then everybody probably gets dragged down. Um I do have some
37:01optimism on that. I had Jared Smola on Beyond the Box Score and he talked through his fantasy environment score, which is just looking at Vegas
37:07projections for this year in terms of applied points. They have it for every game. And the Colts look good in terms
37:12of both the points they're expected to score, but then even better in the in terms of the number of total points that
37:18are expected to be scored in their games between them and their opponents. If you look at like their projected shootout rate, which is something that Jared
37:24calculated based off the number of games that were expected to have 48 or more points combined between the two teams, the Colts are very high. And I think
37:30that makes sense as you look at this defense. So, they're another team where it's like, I think we could see them get
37:35into a lot of back-and-forth shootouts.
37:37And I want to have exposure to I think the player who has a chance to just pile up targets within that. And I think it's more
37:43likely that that's Downs than Pierce if I had to guess based off the way the coaches are talking about him. They're
37:49really planning to expand his role, think he deserves that. Um so, if he comes into the season healthy, I think Downs is just
37:56really really slept on um because he's small, because he played through an injury last year, and so his efficiency stats kind of dropped off, and everyone
38:03was really excited for him last year, and then he didn't have any sort of massive production type season. Um but I
38:08think there's a lot of reasons why, you know, he was playing through an injury basically from the beginning of the season. So, I think this year could be a
38:12lot better. And he's someone I'm getting on basically every team.
38:16I love this take. And I mean, this is a hot take. Wide receiver 43 on Underdog, and Jacob is saying a top 20 wide
38:22receiver this year. That's a huge win rate. Downs is a guy that I have to move up a little bit in my PPR rankings. You
38:28can get access to my rankings over at Rotowire. Use the code Theo20, get 20% off of all of our content, but I'm going
38:35to move him up especially in PPR.
38:37He's really interesting and I think look, when we talk about Alec Pierce, he was a guy that I had a lot of last year
38:44and he was a player that helped us last year, but I think a lot of the Alec Pierce is going to explode in terms of
38:49like his usage was a lot of beat reporter speculation. I know the team talked about it, but just giving the guy
38:55a massive contract doesn't mean you're going to give him 30 more targets. I think a lot of what Pierce does stylistically, he's one of the best deep
39:03threats in football. He's led the NFL in yards per reception in back-to-back seasons and stylistically, he really helps that offense with Jonathan Taylor,
39:12Daniel Jones, and certainly guys like Tyler Warren and Downs would thrive with a healthy Pierce out on the field. But until Pierce is healthy, I think Downs
39:21has a chance to get a really quick leg up here. Him and Warren, I think like when we look at the consolidated target
39:26tree, those two guys are going to be printing in terms of just how predictable they are going to be based on the teammate target competition.
39:33Really fun one. You mentioned Josh Downs, it's a great segue to towards another like short king wide receiver.
39:39Let's talk about Zay Flowers, 5'9 wide receiver, go to another 5'9 wide receiver. Zay Flowers built a little different than Josh Downs, of course,
39:46though.
39:47Zay Flowers, I thought this was a great one. I think this was J Moore tweeted this one out, but 22.7% target share 3
39:55years ago, goes up to 25.4% and then last year, Zay Flowers was fifth in the NFL with 29% target share.
40:04Flowers is an elite target earner, but he's been in offense that doesn't pass the ball. He had 118 targets last year.
40:11This year, I think with Declan Doyle, the offense becomes even a little bit more balanced. And it doesn't have to be
40:18some crazy pass-happy revolution in Baltimore. They just have to not be dead last in the NFL in pass attempts. Zay Flowers, I think this year, sets a
40:27Baltimore Ravens record for the most catches in franchise history. The bar is not incredibly high. It's uh 107 catches for Mark Andrews back in 2021. I think
40:38we see Flowers get to 110 this year. It would be a leap forward, but really just would be increased target uh
40:46totals, a little bit more efficiency, and then I think Zay Flowers has this ability to add a lot of touchdown catches this year. They never target him
40:56in the end zone. I think just committing to using Zay Flowers on some end zone targets, a player with his route-running
41:03ability and athleticism, I think he could have a few of those. And then the positive touchdown regression, Flowers could end up having a smash season here.
41:11And he dodged a major hurdle. It sounds like Stefon Diggs will not be a Baltimore Raven. A throwaway signing last week, Chris Moore was signed to
41:20Baltimore last week. Um, where there's been some beat reporters insinuating that Stefon Diggs will not end up in Baltimore. It felt like that was one of
41:29the like more uh kind of obvious potential landing spots for Diggs with him training at the University of Maryland right now, uh and
41:37Baltimore, you know, being so close. But it sounds like that's not going to happen. So when you look at the wide
41:43receiver teammate target competition for Flowers, it's incredibly low. And then you look at Mark Andrews being a little bit older. I think everything's setting
41:52up for Flowers to have just a tremendous season. Uh, ended the year really well last year. I think he continues it to
41:58start the year this year.
42:00>> Yeah, I'm right there with you. I have Flowers as a wide receiver 12 ahead of a lot of really, really good players. I
42:04think there is a lot more upside than people realize. So I did about 23 minutes, I think, on Flowers with Heath
42:09Cummings on Beyond the Box Score and dug into all of that. And there are some comparisons to Antonio Brown, which sounds crazy. Um but like his year three
42:17market share numbers are basically identical to Antonio Brown's year four, and that's when he really took off AB.
42:24Um I think that just goes completely overlooked because Baltimore was so low volume in terms of passing last year. Uh the offense really
42:31was not what we've seen, but Flowers' numbers within that were massive. So it's kind of like Jamar Chase a little bit we brought up earlier where it's a
42:38little overlooked, he just keeps pushing that target share number up. And so it really comes down to to touchdowns. Can that happen? And I think again Antonio
42:45Brown is an interesting corollary. Tyler Lockett is another one that I brought up where early in their careers they weren't used
42:51that way. Their their red zone target shares were very low, even lower than Flowers actually.
42:56Um Flowers had a 19% red zone target share last year, so like that's not that bad. That's higher than AB's was early
43:01in his career, that's higher than Lockett's was.
43:03And then once they got unlocked that way, once that that game year three, year four, year five for those guys, all of a sudden it's like, oh, Tyler
43:10Lockett ripped off five straight years of eight or more touchdowns. Turns out he can be used that way cuz he's very
43:15good off the line of scrimmage, he's very good at the catch point. He's a very good player, you know, he's one of
43:19your best players. Feature him all over the place, not just outside of the red zone. And I think something similar could absolutely happen for for Flowers.
43:26Um Matt Harmon has sort of alluded to that fact, like when you look at his charting on Flowers, he's just like
43:32he he he keeps getting better. And he keeps getting better in the short, you know, quickness winning type of way, and
43:38that could absolutely be weaponized in the red zone. I don't know why he wouldn't be able to. And so maybe that
43:43does expand this year. And he can score outside of the red zone, too. And so I think there's a chance that he does run
43:48into an Olave type of outcome here cuz he's better with the ball in his hands than Olave. He's really really good with
43:53the ball in his hands and can create those big plays even if he's not like getting the take the top off the defense
43:58wins like Olave. He can win in a different way outside of the red zone, so I love it. I think he could easily have
44:03like a top It depends on depends on how much Baltimore passes, but he could easily have like a top five or eight season at
44:09the wide receiver position if they end up passing at like a near neutral rate, like near middle of the league rate.
44:14That would be all it takes.
44:16>> And you've got another wide receiver here. This time it's a rookie. Uh we got a little wide receiver centric. I'm
44:21going to drop a running back take uh soon, but love that you're including this player and I have no idea what
44:26you're going to say about him.
44:28>> Blaze, you set it up perfectly. Yeah, if you didn't know, that's that's impressive cuz you're just like your background instincts are working here as always.
44:35KCC, K.C. Conceição. I think that it's a really interesting correlator Zay Flowers. He's got Todd Monken coming over who Monken cooks, man. I don't
44:43think people realize it because he's not one of the like young exciting >> He's an agist, he is.
44:49>> It's the ageist thing. If Todd Monken was 15 years younger, people would be talking about him being an offensive genius. He's looked at sort of like a
44:55stop gap coach. Uh I I feel like it's more like a like what he did with the last two years in Baltimore after the
45:01Greg Roman era to switch over to Todd Monken, like really that the was that first year in Baltimore. The guy was innovative, uh
45:08had that team cooking, had Lamar Jackson I mean unbelievable stuff.
45:12>> Yeah, so Ryan and I talked about that on that episode I I mentioned earlier. Um he does all the things we like, motion
45:18at the snap of the football, he hammers horizontal routes, he gets players in space, he uses play action. Um so my
45:24question is like can this offense just not be terrible because last year the role was awesome for Zay Flowers. We really saw him unlocked.
45:33Um and the offense was just 27th in passing yards and that was enough for Flowers to have 1,200 yards. And I'm not expecting
45:40K.C. Conceição to be as good as Flowers, you know, and there's no Lamar Jackson, you know, even if Lamar didn't play
45:45great last year, it was still way better than what we're probably getting in Cleveland. Um but you're not paying anywhere near that
45:51drive price, you don't need anything like that. So my hot take with Conceição is I think he'll be a volume based wide
45:56receiver two with like a 25% target share in the second half of the season and gives you the yardage upside for
46:04even more than that because he's a really good player. I really liked him as a prospect. He can beat any coverage
46:10type. He is one of those types of players who can work inside out. Um if you look at wide receivers who were slot
46:16dominant, um which he was early in his career but not so much in his last season, which is something I like. He
46:20showed that he can win either way. Um but if you look at players that are slot right above 50% who were drafted in
46:25round one, those players have given us a really good hit rate for fantasy football because one like I said, that's how, you
46:31know, defenses are playing and everything. And two, teams don't really invest in slot receivers. There's not really any need to. We're going to more big tight end
46:39sets and everything. You can find a slot receiver anywhere is kind of the idea. I mean, hell, Amon-Ra St. Brown was a late
46:44pick, you know? Like you can maybe do that if you want to talk yourself into that. So why would you use a round one
46:48pick on a slot receiver?
46:51Maybe because they're like a special player, you know? And that's kind of what we've seen is those players who were slot dominant and got picked in
46:56round one have ended up being very good, especially for fantasy. And this is one of those players. And I think the
47:01overlook part of Concepcion, like Matt Harmon rants and raves about the the uh route running. And that's pretty clear when you watch him. He's like, "Dang, he
47:07can break off some nasty routes."
47:09I think he's also an absolute killer with the ball in his hands, and people maybe don't realize that so much. Um
47:14he's a dog, man. He's like Yeah, what he reminds me of a little bit is Luther Burden. I would say he's like
47:1880% of Luther Burden's physicality with the ball in his hands, um which is insane cuz Burden is like a running back
47:24with the ball in his hands. And he has more speed than Burden. Like this guy's really freaking fast where he can
47:30break off these plays where he breaks a tackle and he's like, "Oh, now he's gone." You know, now that's 50 yards.
47:34>> [laughter] >> Um so to me, as I look at the their schedule, I think like the week 11 bye feels perfectly timed for the classic
47:42second half rookie wide receiver breakout, like the the post-bye rookie bump, I believe Hayden Winks dubbed it.
47:47And the schedule from that point on is really, really nice. And so if he is in this Zay Flowers role, which as
47:53prospects they're kind of similar in a number of ways, like where they were drafted, how they won, their their numbers were a little bit suppressed by
48:00bad offense in college and off, you know, highest off target rate in their class, all that stuff. But they're really, really good athletes who can
48:07create with the ball in their hands or down the field. If he gets that role, I think the sky is the limit for this guy.
48:13It's only going to be whether or not the quarterbacks can can prevent it entirely from happening. So, can can the Browns get to that like
48:2127th-ish number that the Ravens were in passing yards last year? Can that is that realistic under Monken?
48:27If so, then I think Casey can set you up and give you some really big production down the stretch and he's completely
48:33free in drafts.
48:34>> It's such a low bar when it comes to Cleveland Browns and they've drafted well and they have these talented skill position players. I talked about
48:41this with Paco Reign when he came on here and when I was on with those guys on Ship Chasing, just like I I I like a
48:48bunch of these Cleveland Browns this year, but it's such a scary situation with the quarterbacks. But if Monken is this offensive genius, can he coax some
48:57like decent play out of Shedeur Sanders or maybe even potentially Deshaun Watson? There's a chance for multiple Browns to beat their ADP this year. If
49:05like you said, if they're just if they're the 25th best offense in football this year, then then there's going to be a couple
49:11guys that absolutely smash this year.
49:13So, really interesting stuff and Casey Conceicao, like you bring up like just how good he was. I did the NFL Draft
49:20podcast with Brett Whitefield and I made that last year when I was at Fantasy Points and I made that Zay Flowers
49:26comparison for Casey Conceicao and he quickly like corrected me and he was like, he's way better than Zay Flowers was as a prospect. really good at this.
49:34So, like I I was a a KCC bull, but I don't think I was bullish enough and and the NFL sort of told us what he was with
49:42where his draft capital was.
49:44Um, just to go back to his freshman year at NC State, he was ACC Freshman of the Year.
49:50Um, was like all-conference, was a freshman all American, 71 catches, 839 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, but I think people forget he had 41 carries
50:00that year. They let him carry the ball 41 times. They got him all these manufactured looks, 320 rushing yards.
50:06He was the only player that year in FBS that had 750 plus receiving yards and 250 plus rushing yards. Unbelievable stuff. Um, and last year sort of the
50:15quarterback play at Texas A&M not that great, but KCC still was a first round pick. And then, you know, not K- Texas
50:21A&M, of course, you know, there's going to be some people listening. The quarterback play a lot lot left to be desired. I think they can improve this
50:27year. I'll add that. Don't come at me, Aggie nation. Um, let's keep this thing going here. I'll go with one >> that point is really important. I think
50:34that point is really important about the getting him the ball behind line of scrimmage and all that stuff, and that's why I'm okay taking a chance on him in
50:40this Browns offense, even though the quarterback play by me abysmal, is because like I know you really like Dinzel Boston, and I think there could
50:46be something there, but it seems like such a really razor-thin margin that you'd have to skate for him to actually matter for fantasy within this
50:54ecosystem. Maybe next year, when the quarterback play is better or whatever.
50:58Um, but with Concepcion, you can just get him the ball in creative ways, and he can create. Like he's that type of
51:04player. He's that fantasy friendly type of player, whereas Dinzel Boston, I think he can do some of that more than people realize. Like he's kind of like
51:10Pittman, where people think of him as this big outside guy, but he actually has a little bit of juice. Um, but I
51:14think most of his targets are going to be 10, 12, 15 yards on the field.
51:18Concepcion can get those, but he doesn't need to get those necessarily to win for fantasy, and that's why I'm taking shots
51:22on him.
51:23>> So, I'll go a very simplistic one, and I'll keep it short and sweet. You can go check out a long form of this
51:29conversation on the show that I did on Jacob's Jacob's Beyond the Box Score with him and Dan. I made the bullish
51:35case on Jeremiah Love. Dan was sort of with me on this one, just based on where he's being drafted. I see all these
51:42really smart people comparing Ashton Jeanty's situation last year to Jeremiah Love's this year. And I'm like do we do we not have to include ADP
51:52context into comparisons anymore in fantasy football? It's just pathetic to me. Some of these guys and some of these guys might have half a million followers
52:00and they're big NFL accounts making this comparison. Ashton Jeanty I had to take 12th last year. Now Jeremiah Love has been falling to the late third round a
52:08lot in FFPC and he's falling into the fourth round in NFFC. NFFC three wide receiver starts, so that gets a little
52:16bit different, but the whole market is fading Jeremiah Love now. Now I've got the beat reporters coming out and talking about how in the first couple
52:24days of training camp Jeremiah Love is like splitting first team reps with Tyler Allgeier.
52:29I get it. It's a little bit of my TreVeyon Henderson take, but Jeremiah Love was drafted third overall. He was a
52:36phenomenal prospect. And if he falls into the fourth round, I think this could turn out to be one of the better
52:42running back values in all of fantasy.
52:44Um I think it could be a little bit bumpy early on, but I think over the second half of the year you're going to
52:48see a full on embrace of Jeremiah Love the pass catcher. I think he ends up ripping it up in the last like eight or
52:55so games of the of the fantasy football season. Is an absolute playoff smash and ends up being a clear first round pick
53:03in 2027 drafts. Jeremiah Love will end up being let's call him a top eight pick in 2027 drafts. And in order to get
53:11there, he's got to do something this year. I think he outscores Ashton Jeanty last year on a points per game basis.
53:18Jeanty was like 14 and a half. Let's call Jeremiah Love 15 points per game, which isn't that bold. It's like 50% of
53:24the running backs who are drafted in in the top 10 overall, if we look at like the last 20 years, have had really
53:30strong fantasy foot football success right out the gate. Jeremiah Love I think is going to be the next one to do
53:35it. It could be a little bumpy, but I think he's going to get there in the second half of the year. I think people
53:39are really really overthinking him. 15 points per game coming out of the end of the third early fourth.
53:46>> I'm coming around. I just drafted him I think 29th overall. Um I moved him up my ranking since we talked about uh love. I
53:52think that the league winning case is there. I'm nervous I'm nervous as hell about the Cardinals. I don't want to draft very many Cardinals
53:57to be honest, but the late season schedule sets up pretty nice after the bye. Um and I think that he is probably
54:03just going to get loaded up. So, I think it makes a lot of sense. Those that the hit rate's even stronger if you look at
54:09like last 10 years instead of the last 20 years. Um I think maybe the NFL's got a little bit smarter about how they
54:14attack the position um in the draft. Um and so I I'm I'm there. I think that makes sense. I absolutely loved him as a
54:21prospect. And I think he can do it all.
54:23So, like maybe you know, we see him lose work to Algier or something, but maybe not, you know, he could absolutely just be like a
54:3060 70 80% type of player um in terms of backfield share. They have talked about that like if they've got the you know,
54:36the Steph Curry thing. If they got the hot hand, just they're going to ride it.
54:39And my guess is he'll have the hot hand a lot. This guy's insane. Um I also don't think that the Gentile
54:47comparison makes so much sense because it was historically bad last year. Like out of running backs with 200 or more carries, he was dead last. It was like
54:55115 I think running backs in terms of yards before contact per rush. And it's like over the last like 10 years or however long I have that
55:02data available to me, he was last last year. So, I don't think it'll be that bad. I think they have some talent on this line and it should
55:08be better than that. And then I think the quarterback play should be better, too. And you have actual pass catching weapons um that you know,
55:16maybe will scare the defense where is they're not just going to be loading the box all the time. Um I think that's fair
55:22like if they if they stay healthy, the offense could just be better than last year's Raiders. And then the last thing
55:25is the play card could be a lot better.
55:27I worry a little bit about them playing really slow, but if they're playing from behind, which they're expected to be doing in all of their games, I'll point
55:33out Jared Small's work again on the fantasy environment score thing.
55:36Um what was interesting to me about the Cardinals is when you look at the teams at the very bottom, which they were in
55:40terms of implied points, their profile for how they get to this low number is way different than the rest of the
55:46teams, where they have a a low rate of games that are expected to be very gross, like slogs, not a high point
55:52total between the two teams, and they actually have a few games that are projected to be shootouts, which most of those teams at the bottom don't have
55:58because their offense isn't good enough to make a shootout happen.
56:01And I think that that's kind of setting up to similar to last year, right? We'll see what happens at QB, um, but
56:08I think their schedule is going to set up where like the implied spread between them and their opponent is higher than
56:14any team in the NFL. They're expected to be losing and potentially getting beat bad more than any other team, and in
56:20those games like we could see them have to play a little bit faster than LaFleur would like. Um, and that also could be
56:26more passing and stuff, which could be good for him. I think he has a fantastic skill set there. So, as I look at him
56:31and compared to Gundy's season last year, it's like I mean, I wouldn't say this to their face cuz they have Pete Carroll's
56:37forgotten more about football than I'll ever know. I could live five lifetimes and not know enough to measure up to him, but like it's kind of some donkey
56:44stuff that was happening there with the coaching. I mean, they were using freaking Pete Carroll's son as an offensive line coach, and he had no
56:50experience with that, and like it was, like I said, the historically bad results. Um, and it wasn't good from the the get-go, and like it was Chip Kelly
56:58who is it just felt outdated, everything they were doing. Whereas like we've got actual semblance of like reason to believe that the play caller could be an
57:06improvement here in Arizona, um, from what they've had, whether you want to just blindly buy into McShanahan coaches or not. Like I think there's plenty of
57:14reason to believe that it could work.
57:16Um, it could even be exciting. So, yeah, I'm I think that makes a lot of sense. I think we're definitely overthinking it
57:21with him.
57:22At the same time, there's a lot of running backs to like, so I'm totally fine if you're just like, "Fade Cardinals." But that might come back to
57:28bite you in the fantasy playoffs.
57:30>> Yeah, I think really the the biggest argument for me is a lot of like when the the third and the fourth round
57:34running backs is the wide receiver quality. It's a whole another kind of structural draft uh show, but you know, we're liking all these wide receivers
57:42and then we're talking about guys like I you know, Jeremiah Love and in round three, round four. I made the case for
57:47Breece Hall, but it's like maybe the wide receiver hit rates are just so strong. Here I keep gravitating towards the hero RB running back because the
57:56whole market is telling us running back running back, but it's sure easier to draft running back running back right now and catch up at wide receiver these
58:03days, Jacob. Um let's finish the show out with a player that you talked about on the show that I multiple shows. You
58:09did it last time with us, but talk to me about Jayden Reed. Give me a hot take with Jayden Reed for 2026.
58:16>> Yeah, I'm going to say Jayden Reed has like like blows the doors off with yards. I'm going to say Jayden Reed has like
58:211,100-1,200 yards.
58:23Um I think it could be a massive season for him.
58:26He's it's he was the player I was alluding to earlier with Downs where it's like if we would have had this
58:32target opportunity available to Reed, I think going into last year, he would have been drafted super high. People would have been really excited about
58:38him. But because he had an injury-plagued year, we're kind of like over him. And so you have like a post-hype buy opportunity here. So Romeo
58:46Doubs last year was eighth in red zone target share and fourth in end zone target share. I think that's really relevant in the whole league, you know.
58:52Um not even just receivers, but like everybody. He was hammered in that area.
58:56He and Wicks accounted for 29% of the Packers targets and 39% of the air yards combined, 32% of the red zone targets
59:03combined, 48% of the end zone targets combined. And they just didn't replace those targets at all.
59:09Um so I think Tucker Kraft, if he's healthy, gets a lot of that. I think Christian Watson probably gets a lot of
59:15that in the red zone, but he already has a massive rate, so it's not like like Watson's not going to have like 50% of
59:19the red zone targets or something. I don't think he can really see that much of an increase.
59:24Um so where do do go, you know? Like I think Reed soaks up some of the red-zone stuff. And then outside of the red zone,
59:29I think he gets potentially a massive target boost um from what we've seen.
59:34And also there is, you know, there's a potential that he plays more in two-receiver sets and stuff. We'll see.
59:39I don't think I think it'll probably be Matthew Golden and Christian Watson playing in those sets, but there's also the potential that if either of those
59:47get players get hurt, we're now there with Reed. Whereas in the past we've had to speculate on like it would take like
59:53two or three injuries for Reed to ever get trusted into receiver sets. And there's a lot of people, Matt Harmon and
59:57myself, like JJ Zachariason, like there's a lot of people who have profiled this guy as somebody who could be an all-the-time player, not just some
60:04slot gadgety guy.
60:05Um So, Jayden Reed, since entering the NFL, is wide receiver one in fantasy points per target among qualified receivers.
60:13He's wide receiver one in passer rating when targeted. And so, I think the the fact we've got all of this vacated
60:20target opportunity, just simply blindly just be like very good on a tour per target basis, and now there's tons of targets available.
60:28That's an easy way to just be like, "Yeah, why is this guy drafted so late?
60:31I'll take him. Why not?" Like who just take a shot on him.
60:34And then if you want to be like more specific and think about the way that this might unfold for the Packers,
60:38they were 28th, I think, in Brandon Thorn's offensive line rankings. I think And those are kind of his like rankings were kind of skewed towards passing
60:45being more important and pass protecting. And so, if they struggle to pass protect, what does that mean? Like who does that affect? I think it
60:52probably affects Christian Watson and Matthew Golden as more of the downfield receivers.
60:56Um and I do think another relevant point is that Christian Watson's data has dropped off when Romeo Doubs has been off of the field. So, normally when you
61:04lose a, you know, wide receiver teammate and you look at the splits with them off the field, your data gets better. You
61:08get more targets and stuff. Watson's target rate has come down, his efficiency has come down. Not in a massive way, but it's like I think with
61:15Doubs off the field, Watson now has to do more of that big boy outside wide receiver stuff, which is kind of hard.
61:21Like it's kind of tough to get a lot of targets when you're working down the field against the best cornerback. And
61:25now I think he's going to have to do more of that, him and and Golden, and that leaves space for Kraft and Reed
61:32over the middle of the field. And especially if the line is struggling, they feel the a need to get the ball out
61:36more quickly, then that just probably leads to more and more of these designed targets from uh Matt LaFleur, who's very good at this, to get these catch-and-run
61:45guys in space.
61:47And I think that sets up where we could see Reed, if healthy, push into like a 22, 23% target share number, even with
61:57everybody healthy on uh in terms of like him only playing in three receiver sets, probably.
62:01Um and then we also could see m- more passing. We'll see what happens with Josh Jacobs. I got no idea. But
62:08also just what if the defense isn't as good? Um they lost a defensive coach, and we don't really know what's going to
62:13happen with Micah Parsons' health and everything. So, like, especially early in the year, I could see them being in some shootouts. And Reed being a player
62:20who's like, instead of 60 to 70% of the snaps, is playing 70 to 80% of the snaps, and getting a ton of targets. And
62:26then it's like, you got people like me tweeting like, "Remember this? He's wide receiver one in fantasy points per target since entering the NFL. And look
62:32at him go. Yeah, he's averaging 17 fantasy points per game through three weeks." And all of a sudden people are freaking out. I mean, you remember just
62:392 years ago, at the beginning of the season, I I was ranking Jayden Reed as like wide receiver 15 rest of season,
62:43and people were like, "You're insane.
62:45That's so low. He should easily be a top-eight receiver rest of season. He should easily be a top-10 or 12 dynasty
62:49receiver." And it's like, "Wow, that's really aggressive for a slot-bound player." Um but people got that excited about him, and I think we could see
62:57something like that again, cuz there's I don't I just think I I I don't think we're aggressively enough attacking these situations where a team lost a
63:06bunch of targets and did literally nothing to replace it. Right? Like, where are those targets going? Like, why are people just sitting around on their
63:14hands and not drafting Jayden Reed? I don't get it.
63:17>> You've also got the Tucker Kraft. It's not in a surprise to us at all that he's starting off training camp on the pup.
63:23But Tucker Kraft, like the contingent upside for the wide receivers, if there's some sort of re-aggravation for Tucker Kraft this year after seeing like
63:31what a big piece of the offense he was.
63:33And then Jayden Reed, like I pop in the Brazil tape if you think Jacob Gibbs is is being a little bit like too bullish
63:39here. Like the Brazil game against Philadelphia, that was a game where we all felt like maybe this was the second coming of Tyreek Hill. Uh and then of
63:47course we got like Matt LaFleur. It could be a different environment this year with LaFleur. I've come around on Josh Jacobs. I think Jacobs is going to
63:55avoid anything this year, but Josh Jacobs is also an older back who's withstood a lot of volume. Jayden Reed, the last fully healthy season he had, he
64:04had 20 carries in 2024. He had three rushing touchdowns in 2023 and 2024.
64:10They just like getting him the ball around the around the goal line. And I think that Jayden Reed getting a few
64:16more manufactured rush attempts this year also could be there whether or not Jacobs misses time or not. Uh it's a really strong bullish argument for Reed.
64:25I love it. Jacob, this was absolute fire today. Let everybody know once again where they can find your work.
64:32>> Yeah, uh Beyond the Box Score. Check us out on YouTube. Um we're on any, you know, streaming platform where you
64:36listen to to podcasts. But I'm particularly interested in like trying to grow this YouTube product that we just started. And so we've been putting
64:41out all sorts of different um types of content for you to continue on YouTube whether that's short or long. I mean,
64:46some of these episodes like Packer Report and Rich Rebar and me, you know, we can yap, dude. We talked for 2 and
64:501/2 hours. And the only reason we stopped is cuz Rich Rebar is like, "I got to feed my kids, man."
64:56We could have talked We could have talked all day. It could have been 5 hours long. Um so lots of that type of
65:00stuff if you if you really want to dig into the nitty-gritty and and think about some of these players in a
65:04different way. Um and then some more focused like deep dives into to data whether that's like >> [snorts] >> I've got like a I'm going to look
65:11specifically at every single team and like red zone usage based off last year and how I think things could shift this
65:16year and which players might benefit.
65:17Um, that type of stuff, too. If you want more data deep dives, player specific stuff, that's all coming out on Beyond
65:22the Box Score. And we have fantastic guests. Theo is going to be back on again.
65:25Uh, really appreciate that. Um, yeah, it's it's good stuff. I'm getting really excited for draft season, man. I'm excited to draft a team with you.
65:31>> Yeah, we're going to draft a team. Uh, look for an announcement there for for Jacob and I. I'll rip it off a high
65:36stakes team at some point. Uh, and I'm going to go back on the show. If you're watching on the YouTube channel, just go
65:41over to Beyond the Box Score, hit that subscribe button. It's really, really strong stuff. Jacob is one of the smartest guys out there, one of the
65:46sharpest guys I've had. And stick with us here right on on this uh, show throughout the rest of July into August.
65:53We're gaining a ton of momentum. Really appreciate all the new subscribers to both the podcast feed and the YouTube audience. Uh, have a loaded rest of July
66:02and early August in terms of guests. And we're mixing in a bunch of those live drafts. I did a live FFPC Main Event
66:08draft solo. That was tough. Drives telling Jacob in the pre-show doing a drafting a team and like running the show at the same time, especially when
66:15it's a high stakes one, that's tough.
66:17I'm also doing an NFFC 350 with Alan Seslowsky on this channel. Look for that live. My Pros vs. Joes FFPC team, I'll
66:25do that live Sunday night. And then I'm going over Ian Hartitz's channel. We're drafting an FFPC 350 Big Gorilla. That should be a lot of fun. Drafting live
66:34here on this channel every single week.
66:36No theoretical content here. We're ripping and running. We're trying to win some money. Trying to win some championships. Jacob is going to help
66:42you do that as well. Make sure you're following him. And stick with us here RotoWire. We're going to help you crush
66:47your fantasy leagues this season.
