0:06talking flag plant players and draft targets with JJ Zachary, Theo Griminger, Ruawire, lead fantasy football analyst.
0:14We're breaking it down. We are approaching the month of August here and it is time to draft. Uh JJ, before we
0:20get started with some of your flag plants, if you could know the final stats of any player in fantasy football, who would it be?
0:29I thought about this because you know questions like this you often want to go with players that can then impact other players or
0:36you would you would you would get information of other players on that team. So one of the guys that first came
0:40to mind was like Luther Burton because then you might be able to say oh if he had a great season that means that Roma
0:46Dunce or Coloulson Lovelin may not have and then that all of a sudden you're knocking out three guys as to who you
0:51would target and avoid in that situation. But I'm going to go even more simplistic than that. I'm just gonna say Christian McAffrey. I I I feel like in
1:00the end he's so polarizing and the only reason why he's not a top three pick overall is because of the age and the
1:08injury concerns. And yeah, there was a little bit of a drop off in efficiency last year, but we also know that they're
1:14still more than likely going to feed him. Uh he's still going to be a central part of that offense. And if we knew
1:19that he was playing 17 games and not seven games, then I think he would comfortably be a top, you know, right
1:27there with with Bejon and and Jir Gibbs.
1:29So, I'm going to say Christian McCaffrey just because he is that true league winning type player. And I would love to
1:34know if I can just full fade him or, you know, boost him up a little bit and be really heavy on him.
1:39>> That's a it's a great answer and I thought about it and I almost said CMC for mine as well. Um, for for me, I'll
1:46I'll take like uh I'll go I'll go with two guys that I'd love to know their final stats. And it's two of the guys
1:51that I feel like there's a lot of fades going on. Trey McBride. Is Trey McBride going to end up being like an edge pick
1:58or are all the faders correct? But there's formats where we're seeing Trey McBride like living in the third round.
2:05Potentially we'll have like some fourth round exposure in some of these regular PPR leagues for a guy that has the most
2:11catches in a two-year period ever at the tight end position. had the most receptions ever in a single season last year. Uh will Jacobe Brassette sort of
2:19start the entire year. Will the Laflur offense be able to uh completely lean into a tight end? We haven't really seen
2:25that in a in a McVey uh setting. And then Devon Achan, that's the one where I've had some really sharp people sort
2:31of fading him at cost. Uh where the fears of the unknown with Malik Willis uh with Bobby Slowick taking over as the
2:38play caller. But it's like Achan is also this phenomenal talent and he's coming off of a 20 point per game season. Uh
2:46maybe there's a chance that he excels as the clear target earner in Miami and and excels playing next to a mobile
2:54quarterback like Malik Willis. So, for me, it's a Chana McBride, but CMC an an absolutely awesome uh answer and one that could be incredibly tilting to see
3:03this, you know, 30-year-old running back uh who could potentially outscore those two guys going at the very top and Bejan and Jir Gibbs. So, really, really
3:11interesting. same similar question for you and I guess this could be end up being a team that produces a bunch of
3:18fantasy football ADP wins if we can identify the top offense but not sure you're going in this direction with your answer which new play caller has you
3:28sort of most excited for fantasy football this year >> I mean it has to be Mike McDaniel right yeah like it it has to be uh nothing
3:37against Greg Roman but he's not McDaniel you know Roman had some like motion in his offense. And but but we also know
3:44that it's more of that power uh power run game and it's it focuses a little bit more heavily on that even though we
3:50did see a little bit more uh a higher of a pass rate at times and through stretches um you know in that offense.
3:57But you just look at what what Mike McDaniel's working with. You get a probable top five offensive line with with Slater and Alt coming back. You
4:06have uh Justin Herbert who's one of the best just talents at least at the quarterback position. Um, I think it's going to be really interesting to see
4:13how uh, you know, they they deploy the offense personnel-wise simply just because you look at what they do have.
4:20They have like pretty good tight ends and decent players there, but they, you know, they they grab their fullback.
4:26They're going to probably run a very similar, you know, heavier scheme or at least none scheme that McDaniel's done historically. And I think that's going
4:34to be great for a guy like Lad Mani um because he's going to be out on the field more frequently in um you know
4:41either two wide or even even 13 personnel um type situations. Um you know we've seen McDaniel over the last four years as head coach. His teams have
4:50have ranked first or second in motion every single year that he's been head coach. And we know just statistically that that has led to uh not not just
4:58with McDaniel, but I'm saying across the league and leaguewide when you have that kind of trend. Uh it it leads to better
5:04fantasy production and it leads to more efficient offenses. So you just bring it all together. It's just it could be a
5:10smash. Like I would I don't think anyone should be shocked if they have the best offense in football this year. Like I
5:15think it's a very very real tangible outcome. You have good running backs too. I think Amari Hampton's a good player. Um, you know, they've Keith
5:21Mitchell now, who is like a the perfect kind of fit with what McDaniel has has used and what that Shanahan kind of tree
5:28has used historically with those really speedy backs. I mean, you could even go back to like a Raheem Mostard is that
5:33kind of like like speedster. Um, and I know that that you know they had Devon Achan obviously, but but even Mostard like was that kind of
5:41player. It's just that Devon Achan was even more of that kind of player and so we kind of typ casted those guys into
5:48particular roles. So, I'd say McDaniel is one. If you wanted like a secondary one that I'm excited about is Shawn Manion probably in Philadelphia. Uh,
5:56simply because he's not Kevin Patulo.
5:57Uh, in the end, you know, um, Patulo, if you look at what he did last year, you know, the the play action rate was
6:04lower, motion was lower, fewer RPOs. You look at wide receiver charts and and and uh the the routes that these guys were
6:12running. You know, there was a clip of AJ Brown yesterday dropping a ball from Drake May on a crosser and everyone's
6:18like, "Oh man, they they don't have their chemistry together." And I'm sitting there and I'm like, "Wait, AJ Brown ran a crosser? Like AJ Brown's
6:23going through the middle of the field?
6:24That's amazing." You know? Um and so like we just didn't see that creativity at all for that Philadelphia offense last year. And you know, we don't know
6:31what this offense is is definitely going to look like. But what I'm kind of intrigued by is that you get draft picks
6:37of Eli Sters and Mai Lemon for Philadelphia this year. And that to me, you know, you could sit here and say
6:43like Jaylen Hurst doesn't throw to the middle of the field. And I think that there's some validity to that for sure,
6:47but I don't think a sharp team like Philadelphia makes those picks without knowing what they're doing with the kind of players that those guys are. I think
6:55Lemon can play inside out, don't get me wrong, but uh you know, even as a slot player where he can thrive or Sters in
7:01the middle of the field where he can thrive. I think Philadelphia knows what they're doing and they're trying to get more creative and allow these guys to
7:06just kind of move all over the formation and and that's just more of a plus for a guy like Manion. So, I'm I'm excited for
7:12this Philadelphia offense as well to sort of at least be better than what we saw last year.
7:16>> I'm two for two now with with sharp guests who wanted who are excited about Shawn Manion. Um Hayden Winks had the
7:23exact same answer. Uh, and then the the the using motion where he talked about with Mike McDaniel, Jacob Gibbs and Ryan
7:30Heath also sort of talked about that.
7:32Uh, so we've had like sort of a constant drum beat. It has to be McDaniel.
7:36McDaniel's the one. There's so many guys there in LA. It feels like this could be the Justin Herbert MVP season. It feels
7:43like this could be Omar and Hampton could be like the biggest riser this year and fall in the end zone 14 times
7:49and have a huge rushing season and next year he's like the fifth overall pick in 2027 drafts and then like you said the
7:56you know the lad maki uh some of these other guys at ADP really interesting even Gadson super interesting at his current cost. LA could rise a lot of
8:05tides ADP-wise. JJ, you just finished your draft guide. It's awesome. Every year you do such a good job with this.
8:12Um, talk about it. Let everybody know kind of where they can find it.
8:16>> Yeah, so the draft guide, you know, I know there's a lot of guides out there that look at like players to target and
8:21player profiles and stuff like that. I go with more of a game theory angle and a strategy angle. And so there's like
8:27200 pages of me talking through my process in Fantasy People, how to spot breakouts and bus and what to look for
8:34versus what the market typically does.
8:36So it's very game theory and strategy oriented. Um, so yeah, it's a it's a a PDF you can download. It's designed
8:42well. We care about the design stuff, so it won't be an eyesore if you're opening it up. Uh, and it's on lateround.com.
8:48Uh, and it updates weekly, so every Friday you'll get a new guide in your inbox with updated players to target, avoid, rankings, all that kind of stuff.
8:55But uh hopefully you know you read it and you you uh you think about the game a little bit differently.
9:00>> Yeah. And talk about market score, which is something that I know you've explained on like your own podcast, but uh how market score came to be, how
9:07you're utilizing it, and has market score influenced your takes with any players and your willingness to draft them, your open-mindedness to them sort
9:16of exceeding your own expectations based on the data.
9:20>> Yeah. So this is year one with market score. What it is is, so I have the Zap model, which is a prospect model, right?
9:25And and and essentially what the Zap model does is that it looks at draft capital, where these players were actually drafted, and then it looks at
9:31all these other inputs from a collegiate production standpoint. You know, there's teammates score, all sorts of stuff that gets thrown in there with draft capital,
9:39and it spits out a zap score. So, a player score from zero to 100. And then that tells me how how good or bad a
9:46certain player might perform across the first three years of his NFL career.
9:49Now, I sat there and I said, "What if we had a zap score for reddraft leagues, but instead of draft capital, we were
9:55looking at average draft position, right?" And so, essentially what this what market score does is it takes a player's average draft position and it
10:03says, "Okay, ADP itself is pretty predictive. It's not like perfect, but it definitely tells you, you know, generally the direction that a player is
10:11going to be going in or how good or bad that player is going to perform." And so what market score does is that it takes
10:16ADP as a foundational piece and then it adds all these previous season inputs that are predictive that make ADP essentially more predictive than ADP
10:26itself. And so you know you might see a guy who's 60th and it's a scale from zero to 100 just like Zapore, but there
10:32might be a guy who's being draft a wide receiver who's drafted 60th overall and he has a market score of you know 50.
10:39Uh, and then a guy who's drafted 65th overall who has a market score of 70.
10:44And then that's telling you that that guy who's a little bit later is just more of a value than the guy who's going
10:48a little bit earlier. Um, and so to me, it's more of like a it's just another metric that we're looking at to make
10:55sure that we're, you know, checking all of our boxes, crossing our tees, dotting our eyes, all that kind of stuff. And it
11:01does like some of the cool things you can do with market scores like look at historical comps, for instance, right?
11:05where you can find a player's market score, you can look at his career year, and you can look at his overall ADP and
11:11find the most similar players in history who have have have similar numbers like that. And then that could also make you
11:18feel more or less confident in a certain player, right? So, I did that exercise on a podcast a couple weeks ago and
11:23achuka based on his top 10 comps was like a top five wide receiver and projected points per game. And it's like, okay, I got to dig into this more.
11:31You know, what is this saying? Why is it saying this? And there's just good comp after good comp after good comp. Another
11:36guy that mark now market score likes Ibuka. It doesn't have him ranked top five, but it has him ranked pretty high.
11:41A a guy that definitely, you know, I've been scared of because of situation and market score is trying to capture situation in its uh in its calculation.
11:51But one player who's like the wide receiver nine or 10 in market score right now is Tedaro McMillan. Um where I've been more subjectively turned off
11:59by the situation for obvious reasons.
12:01you know, run heavy offense, Bryce Young, etc. But, you know, objectively, I know he's an incredibly talented player and he had an incredibly talented
12:10and and strong, I should say, and productive rookie season. Uh, but market score is looking at this and saying he's a guy that you should be targeting this
12:18year. You know, he he is he is, you know, he's being drafted, let's say, at like wide receiver 16, 17, 18, uh, if
12:25not later in some drafts, but realistically, he's he's a fringe wide receiver one in the way that market score is looking at him. So, that's one
12:31player that has made me make sure that I'm not underweight on, you know, in in in the baseball streets because I think
12:37it's really easy for players like that to lose sight of because they're not in good environments. And, you know, oftentimes it it does come down to in
12:44fantasy football to just draft the good players because in the end, circumstances change and situations aren't as predictable as we think.
12:51>> Yeah, it's really really interesting stuff. I think McMillan is is a classic example. And you know, you sold all of
12:57my listeners and viewers by saying that Acha Eggbuka uh has such a high market score there, uh JJ, cuz we're we're all
13:04about this offseason. I mean, I don't even need to bring them up and and my smart guests are coming on here and
13:10doing it. Let's dive into some of your flag plant players. These are sort of your mustdraft guys and guys that I'm
13:18sure you are drafting a ton of in your best ball builds right now. Let's start off with Jaylen Wadd. It was like a
13:25steady drum beat of like multiple guests in a row sort of talking about Jaylen Wadd and his upside at his ADP cost. And
13:34we've seen him come up a little bit, but he's still in such a great range to return a ton of value. What are you
13:40seeing with him this year, his situation, and why do you love him so much for fantasy football? Yeah, you know, one of the things that you should
13:48be looking for in that range of your draft are wide receivers that are in more ambiguous situations because that often drives down players costs, but uh
13:56realistically like good players emerge from those situations all the time. And the ambiguity right now is Courtland Sutton, you know, is other, you know,
14:05relatively okay enough pass catchers that could command some looks in the offense. And, you know, if Courtland Sutton didn't exist, I would imagine
14:12Jaylen Wadd would be going higher in drafts, right? So, like his presence is bringing down Jaylen Wadd's ADP. I don't think that should be the case. Um, if
14:20you look at Wadd, you know, last year he still had about a 2.2 yards per hour run rate. He saw target on over 24% of his
14:27routes run. He converted 11 and a half% of those into first downs. A really, really good um, you know, rate. He's a
14:34year six wide receiver, which oftentimes that's when we see peak production at the wide receiver position. Now, he joins Denver. Denver over the last two
14:43years has averaged over about 33 and a half pass attempts per game. Uh they've had at least that that amount of pass
14:49attempts per game, which is an above average mark. Um you know, they they uh they've ranked ninth and 12th in wide
14:55receiver target share. Davis Webb is taking over as offensive coordinator. Um I think there's a little bit of of extra juice there that's exciting. And if you
15:02look at Wadd across his five NFL seasons, he's played in an offense that has had a positive EPA per play just
15:10twice, 2022 and 2023. So it's like the early McDaniel stuff, right? In those two seasons, he had yards per route run
15:17rates of 2.59 and 2.63, which is like Justin Jefferson on a per routeout run basis, right? The difference is that back then he had Tyreek Hill, so he was
15:27getting like a 23% target share or so.
15:29Not even a 23% target share in those offenses. But now he's got this ex receiver in Courtland Sutton who is fine. Like I think Courtland Sutton's a
15:38solid player. I think he's like perennial perennially overvalued in fantasy personally, but uh you know I think he's a he's an okay enough player.
15:45Um but I think Jaylen Wadd's going to end up playing the Z role in this offense. And if you remember last
15:52season, there was a stretch of like four or five games where Troy Franklin, who was playing this role, Troy Franklin was
15:59out targeting Courtland Sutton consistently over this like fiveweek stretch, right? And and I think Jaylen Wadd is going to step in and be better.
16:07They I mean, they looked at Troy Franklin, they're like, "This isn't you.
16:09You you're not going to be able to play this role. Like, this is not, you know, you're not good enough off press. You're
16:14a little bit too small. You're not great at blocking." That's why we started seeing a little bit more Pat Bryant as
16:18well down the stretch last year. They go out, they send strong draft capital to get to get Jaylen Wadd. Every single
16:25metric points to Waddle being a very, very, very good player. And to me, you don't do what they did. Uh, and then
16:32place this player in this particular role without feeding that player. So, I'm very high on what Waddle could do in this Denver offense.
16:39>> I mean, I think you you nailed it. and Wadd. It's to me it's you you just look at how much they paid for the him as
16:46well where they trade a first round pick, a third round pick and a fourth round pick to go out and get him. Uh
16:52it's an awesome opportunity for him. The threat of Sutton, I don't understand the people sort of gravitating towards the Sutton side where there's still a whole
17:01segment saying that Wadd's going to be this guy that helps them stylistically, but it's going to be some sort of split
17:07usage. To me, it's just it it's it's right in front of our faces. But Wadd's also going in a range of drafts where
17:14he's up to wide receiver 21, but I don't know if he's going to rise up more. So, he's going to sort of stay in this
17:20really easy to draft range, I think, for the rest of the summer. Even with smart people like yourself on him and I've had
17:27so many guests that are on Jaylen Wadd, it's like is he gonna be able to leapfrog, Garrett Wilson, a potentially healthy Malik Neighbors, Lad Mcconi,
17:36Tedo McMillan? There's like this resistance point at ADP that's made him into just this strong strong value. So I think Wadd just a fantastic
17:46player to draft. Let's talk about a running back though. And when we get into like the traditional dead zone, there's this group of kind of appealing
17:56year two backs, but you're gravitating towards Bashial Toutin. Uh he's become like sort of a flag plant guy for you, a
18:04very onbrand guy for you. Talk about the appeal of Toutin in year two in the Liam Cohen offense.
18:10>> Look, well, first off, I thought Tutin was a good prospect. And I know that like oftentimes people think that I'm
18:16just like that that that's someone who would say something that is just like enamored with the 40 time and such. No,
18:20I I thought he had a pretty complete production profile even when age adjusted and and and uh team and schedule adjusted. Like I looked at
18:28Tutin as having a really really strong profile. The Zap model viewed Bashaw Tutin as almost a comparable player to R.J. Harvey and that includes draft
18:37capital. RJ Harvey obviously had a much better uh draft had much better draft capital than Toutin did. So my starting point is I think Tutin is a good player
18:46and I think if we look at what happened last year, people are overstating, you know, the yards per carry for instance
18:53when a large portion of that was on short yardage situations. You know, they used him a lot on the goal line. He had
18:59seven goal line uh attempts out of his like 87 carries. Travis ETN or Achan uh he had 12 carries uh on 180 more rush
19:08attempts, 12 goal line carries. So he only had five more goal line carries, but far far more overall rush attempts.
19:14So the proportion of of carries that Tutin was seeing was much higher coming at the goal line than what we saw with
19:21Travis ETN. When you look at the advanced metrics, there are some that ETN looked better than Toutin at, but a lot of them Tutin actually beat out ETN
19:28last year. Uh he was better in EPA per rush. He was better in yards after contact per attempt. Uh he was 11
19:34percentage points higher in success rate than Travis ETN. And so I'm looking at this backfield right now. Number one, uh, not only as a coaching staff, but
19:43many sharp coaching staffs across the league, they they they smartly look at the running back position as not as you not wanting to throw a running back out
19:52there that will show defenses what you're going to do. In other words, you don't want to have a pure third down
20:00back or a pure early down runner. uh because you're not going to disguise what you're going to be doing offensively with those players, which is
20:07exactly why we've seen the Rams and Shawn McVey go with Blake Corm and rotate drives with Kairen Williams because instead of rotating them out in
20:18situation in certain situations, telling the defense what you might be doing now, you have no idea if both of them are
20:23doing the same thing, it's just that Kairen Williams is maybe getting some some more of the higher leverage stuff, right? So you look at this backfield
20:31right now and then the the other thing that Jacksonville and this coaching staff has talked about is that they want explosive plays. Baltin
20:38generated those explosive plays like crazy throughout college. He didn't do it that much last year. In fact, that's probably the biggest red flag of what
20:47happened last year for Tuton, but it's also a fairly small sample. And like I said, they were using him at the goal
20:52line in these short yardage situations.
20:54So we look at what he's working against Laquin Allen. So So that's that's established. I think he's good. Right.
21:00Then we look at what he's working against. Laquin Allen was very much so just used as a third down running back
21:06last year and I think that's their vision for this year. I don't really see a reason as to why that would
21:10significantly change. And then you look at them adding Chris Rodriguez.
21:14Rodriguez doesn't catch passes. He hasn't done that. He didn't do that throughout college. He hasn't done that throughout the NFL. I looked at players
21:21through their first three years who have had as few of of receptions as Chris Rodriguez has had. And those players never really pan out. You got to reach
21:30like maybe a little bit like around like the 20 to 25 reception mark and then you start to get some random hits like a
21:36Mark Ingram for instance. Um you know was that low through the first few years of his career. Um I just don't see this
21:42like turning and Chris Rodriguez all of a sudden being a more than a even a five or six% target share player when he's
21:50caught fewer than 10 passes throughout his NFL career. And so, not only that, the the the the upside case for a guy like Rodriguez or
21:59the the thing that could hurt Toutin most is the short yardage stuff. We hear that all the time, right? Tuten was
22:05great at the goal line. He had a really high success rate last year all things considered. And so, I don't know that
22:09that's even a lock that they use Chris Rodriguez, you know, all the time in those situations. I think Rodriguez is like fine, especially, you know, he's
22:18one of those players that people um might be more afraid of in baseball, but I would lean into him more in best
22:23baseball because I think his production is going to be pretty unpredictable. But I think he will get some touches in the
22:27back field. But to me, we're sitting in like round five and I I think people also overstate the the uh the hit rates
22:35of round five players in general. I'm going to go for ceiling. And I think the ceiling case sits and rests with Bashalt
22:41Tutin. Um, and we're already seeing some hype happening, you know, out of out of Jacksonville camp.
22:46>> I mean, I think you laid it out perfectly. A couple things to address.
22:50When people are looking and thinking Bashel Tutin's just some speed score guy um that tore it up at the NFL combine, I
22:56mean, it's it's couldn't be further away from the truth. He was North Carolina ENT, had a big year there, transferred up to the ACC and was like second team
23:06all ACC twice. Set the Virginia Tech record for rushing yards in a game. had a 266 uh yard game against Boston
23:15College with like four touchdowns. Had like a smash game there. And then he was a senior bowl invite in a year where it
23:21was inc like we all talked about how good the 2025 uh class was at the running back position. He gets a senior
23:27bowl invite. So that's great. And then we look at sort of the environment he's in. Completely agree with you. It's tootin over Rodriguez. But when you look
23:35at Liam Cohen, back-to-back years of Cohen producing like a huge ADP winner, Bucky Irving in 2024, last year Travis ETN, and Toutton's just there. So, I'm
23:46with you. I think Bashel Tutin at his current price tag running back 24 uh during the time of recording. He's trended up a little bit, but I think
23:55you're going to see some sixth round exposure in reddraft leagues and late fifth round, like five, six turn guy when it's all said and done. And even if
24:02he steams up a little bit with a strong camp, you're still looking at a fifth round click. Uh I I think Tutin's a
24:08great pick. Um it's a big fade on on Rodriguez for me as well. I think he could fall in the end zone a few times.
24:14Rodriguez can end up being like you said a guy that helps you in baseball. But Toutton has the ability to beat his ADP
24:19at the running back position by like 10 spots if it all goes well. So I'm with you on Bashel Tutin. Really fun one.
24:26Before we keep going with your uh other flag plant guys, just speaking of the running back position, we've got this huge huge tier of guys going in round
24:35two right now really when you start at like the Ashton Genty and you work your way down to like Derk Henry, is there a
24:44particular player in that range of running backs that you think stands out or are you open-minded to a few guys there?
24:51>> Yeah, I like a lot of guys there to be honest with you. Um, I I would say that, you know, if we include Genty, I think
24:57Genty is really interesting just because I think he belongs more in like the Jonathan Taylor, James Cook tier than he does in that tier. Uh, just just given,
25:05you know, what he was as a prospect, his weighted opportunity last year being a lot more predictive than his yards per
25:11carry average. You get Tyler Linderbomb and, uh, you know, Colton Miller's back from injury. uh Clint Kubiaak obviously coming and I think we're gonna see a lot
25:19of those zone runs where he hits the outside and those are the the money makers for fantasy football purposes. So there's a lot to like about Genty. But
25:26the guy that I'll throw out there that's like very firmly in that running back room range is is Chase Brown. Um if you
25:34look at his first six games last year, he averaged just 9.7 PPR points per game, but he had a 78% running back rush
25:41share. He had a 13% target share. The peripherals were there. He just wasn't converting. And obviously Jake Browning was playing for those games. And then
25:48after that, from then on out, 20.4 PPR points per game. He averaged 21 PPR points per game with Joe Burrow last
25:55year. Um, if you look at his market score comps, like I was talking about earlier, his two closest and similarity score are 2024 or 2020 I I I think I
26:04wrote this this 2014 maybe DeMarco Murray uh and then 2016 Le'Veon Bell.
26:10They scored 22 and 21.2 2 PPR points per game in that closest comp season. And then the one thing with Chase Brown,
26:17like you look at some of the other running backs in that range, like uh Devon Achan, like his his situation has
26:23changed completely year-over-year, even though he's on the same team. Kenneth Walker, who I like a lot, his situation obviously has changed and there's a
26:30little bit of ambiguity there with him.
26:32We don't know exactly what that's going to look like. Saquon Barkley, we don't know exactly what that's going to look like because they have a new offensive
26:37coordinator. You go down the list, all of these running backs, you know, Marian Hampton, we don't know what the backfield split's going to look like.
26:42All of these backs have these sort of like morphed and changed environments where we'd have to do some projecting.
26:48We don't have to do that really with Cincinnati, right? It's one of the most stable offensive environments year-over-year that you can find in the
26:54league and especially during a year where so much change. We have so many new offensive coordinators and so many changes across offenses. I think the the
27:02the offensive line, this is the first time I heard this from Brandon Thorne on the ETR podcast. I was listening to it
27:08on on the drive back from uh from the Fantasy Football Expo and Brandon Thorne was on, who I think is one of the best,
27:15if not the best offensive line guys out there. He noted that this was the first year that Joe Burrow has the same
27:21offensive line year-over-year in his entire NFL career. And so, we know that's been a huge issue for them historically. But this year, we might
27:29see a little bit of a jump in terms of their effectiveness up front. And to me, all that does is scream Chase Brown
27:34being a great uh, you know, guy that that that you want in your squad. I mean, he's Joe Bur with Joe Burrow last
27:39year, he was like a 14% target share player. And and I'm going to lean into that kind of profile more than the guy
27:44who gets like an 80% running back rush share because yeah, Brown might end up with like a 60 65% running back rush.
27:50But I'll lean into the guy who's catching passes a lot more heavy he heavily, especially with the unchanging environment versus the guy who we don't
27:58know if he's going to even hit a 10% target share.
28:01>> Yeah, it's a really really fun uh range.
28:03Brown, you make a great case for him. It feels like it's a like a safe pick, but the upside is all there. 69 catches last
28:10year, too. So, uh there's like a few things about Brown that we don't like. I always have this this question like with
28:18with Scott Barrett when we were discussing it when I was recording School of Scott with him when I was at Fantasy Points was like is Chase Brown
28:26like an elite talent and I think it doesn't really matter because the environment boosts him so so much and I think he is pretty talented too.
28:33>> I think he's good.
28:34>> I think that's part of the problem too.
28:35Like there like look don't get me wrong when we look at cuz we test all sorts of of statistics against the market and
28:41against ADP when we do the draft guide every year. I say we, it's been, it was we this year because I hired Brandon
28:46Gdul. It's usually just me, but we and the royal sets. It makes it makes it makes it sound larger. Larger company,
28:51right? [laughter] >> Exactly. Exactly. Just my brain.
28:54>> Me and the team. Yeah.
28:55>> Yeah. It's just it's just me sitting in mom's basement testing these correlations. Um but like like if you look at early round running backs
29:02historically, the players who have been bad prospects, they don't hit at at as high of a rate. I say bad prospect for
29:08Chase Brown. I liked him as a prospect, but he's obviously going to be brought down in zap score in any sort of bottle
29:13because he was drafted on day three, right? You run into the same issue with Kairen Williams, but realistically, once you have a multi-year sample of that
29:21player being good, it doesn't matter anymore. You can you can throw it out.
29:24It's more so what you should be wary of are the players who had a big, let's say, rookie season that were day three
29:30guys and then they get catapulted up into that like top 18 running back range and they were day three picks. like you
29:37should be a little bit scared of those guys because there's not that much of a backbone there. But if those guys then
29:42every once in a while you get a Kairen or a Chase Brown and they show you that year in and year out they can be the
29:47dude, you can forget about, you know, the the how how they looked as a prospect and just realize that they're just good players.
29:53>> For sure. And I think one thing that should get everybody excited like you you you were the late round quarterback
29:59guy and then over the years you've sort of like evolved your takes here kind of depending on the market and the
30:05availability of rushing yards and you've talked about it at length like JJ um on your shows. Go check out JJ's pods. But
30:12you've talked about how like the market has adjusted for rushing ability at the quarterback position and now we have to pay for it ADP. But maybe this year,
30:22maybe this year we're fully back in and you've got a guy that you're flagging as a target for you. Uh that's going very
30:29late. QB21 in the most recent ADP.
30:33>> Yeah. Look, I mean with with quarterback, I've been saying for for years now that the market's gotten sharper and you can see that in R
30:40squared. If you look at the top 18 quarterbacks versus how many points per game they actually score, so ADP to actual production, top 18 quarterbacks
30:48back in 2015, 2016, 2017, there was zero correlation. You literally could throw a dart and find the QB1 in a given year in
30:56the top 18 because uh there weren't as many of these like stable rushing quarterbacks. I say stable because rushing points per game correlates more
31:05than twice as well uh to next season production as passing points per game do. So, so passing points per game is
31:10just really volatile, right? And and I've said for a while that the way that this sort of shifts and changes because
31:16over the last 5 years, we've gotten, you know, it peaked in like 2021 where that R squared was really high, where the
31:22market was really good at predicting who the top 18 quarterbacks were going to be. But every year since then, it's gotten lower and lower and lower. And to
31:29me, the main reason for that is because we've been introduced to more and more dual threat quarterbacks. You look across the NFL, there really aren't that
31:36many. Like there are just as many guys who can give you something with their legs. When I say something, I mean like
31:41three to four points per game via rushing, right? The Tyler Shucks of the world who I like as a late round dart
31:47throw, right? Um those guys can give you something with their legs and then if they have a relatively special season through the air, then all of a sudden
31:54they're they're elite fantasy quarterbacks. We're getting more and more of those guys. Last year was so obvious it was going to be Drake May.
31:59Like everyone everyone was on Drake May.
32:00Every analyst that that was was you know paying attention was on Drake May. this year. I don't think there's like an
32:06obvious obvious guy like that necessarily, but Malik Willis is one who to me you have to like he's the easiest click on the board I think in all of
32:16fantasy football and in a in a regular home league type environment, you know, because if he doesn't pan out, you drop
32:23him, you stream, you can get low-end QB1 production via streaming or what I think you should be doing this year, pair him
32:30with someone else. pair him with a Brock party to get that stability and still some upside or even wait longer, you
32:36know, wait longer than a perturie and get a Bo Knicks with Malik Willis. You know, you you will uh you you can get
32:42some of that stability and I think it's okay to draft two quarterbacks. But look, you look at what he did in Green
32:46Bay, he averaged 58 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in his three starts there. That translated to about 12 points per game via rushing, which for
32:54the record with Lamar Jackson, if you want to give this context, Lamar Jackson's more of like an eight point per game rushing quarterback uh across
33:01his career. We're talking about 12 in his three games for Malik Willis uh in Green Bay. Um we don't know what he's
33:08like as a passer. Let's just be honest, you know, like I'm fine with leaning into that ambiguity and just saying like
33:13I have no idea if Malik Willis is going to be a great pastor or not. But the bottom line is if they deploy him the
33:19way that he's been used historically, we know he has good rushing, like he has a great rushing prowess, like he's unbelievably athletic, he's good at
33:26making plays with his legs. If they deploy him the way that we think they're going to deploy him, this is his floor
33:31in fantasy football, like like drafting him in this area. If he has even like a above average passing season, he's going
33:38to more than likely be a low-end QB1, high-end QB2. So, you're going to get some equity there. But then the question
33:43is like what if he just ends up being kind of special and now all of a sudden you're inching towards that like QB8
33:50range and I know the situation there looks putrid on paper and I don't disagree. I think the most likely outcome is that he gives us a lot of
33:58good rushing production. the passing production is very questionable and it's more of like an Anthony Richardson type situation, you know, where where it's
34:05more of the very usable or Justin Fields type situation where it's very very usable, but it's a little bit volatile and you know, you you you aren't
34:16necessarily getting those like insane spike weeks week in and week out, but the floor is there because of that rushing ability. That's probably the
34:23most likely outcome, but you're not paying up to get this ceiling. Like that that is the floor outcome in my opinion
34:29as long as he's starting. So to me, he's like the easiest click on the board this year.
34:33>> Yeah. I mean, the the Justin Fields one was what I was going to say where Justin Fields had 17 touchdown passes in 2022
34:41and finished as the QB5. I mean, that's a bar I think we could hit. Um, and I know you've done a ton of research on
34:47this. I know Rich Rebar has as well. Ian Hardit's dropped a and I'm sure you know this stat. Ian Hard dropped this awesome
34:54stat where since 2014 there have been 34 quarterbacks with 100 plus rush attempts in a season. 91% of them finish as a top
35:0212 quarterback in fantasy. So it's the it's the rushing floor for for Willis.
35:06It's really really exciting stuff. Let's pivot back over to the wide receiver position. Um dealer's choice. You got two left JJ. Uh which one do you want to
35:16talk about first?
35:17>> Let's go Luther Burden next. Uh, it's funny. I I sent a tweet out this week where it was something along the lines
35:22of like, "Hey, look, if you think that that Burdton's bad a bad pick at cost, that's that's fine. If you think that
35:26he's a good pick at cost, that's fine, too." Uh, because there's there's a range of outcomes here. And I totally recognize the range of outcomes with
35:32Luther Burton. And I think it's important to anyone listening that like with fantasy analysis, you know, you should be thinking about where things
35:40can go south and where things look good.
35:42And and the way that I play fantasy football is that I'm going to be more gravitated towards the the the northern
35:48side, you know, the the the it going well side as opposed to the south side because uh in the end, you know, as as
35:54our our buddy Scott Barrett would say, upside wins championships, right? So, uh with Burton, you know, this is kind of a
36:01Baltin thing for me too where where I thought Burton was an excellent prospect, like excellent like one of the best in the Zap model database. It's
36:10like him and and Keenan Allen and Juju Smith Schustster as some of the best day two wide receiver picks that the model's
36:16ever seen.
36:17>> And I I'll say I'll say when I remember doing this with you and this was at the time where you had guys like Ibuka and
36:23Tedro McMillan, you you had uh Luther Burton, I believe, as your number one wide out based on the Zap score.
36:30>> Yeah. Pre-draft last year, he was the wide receiver one in the model.
36:33postdraft. Uh and and you know the model I iterate the model every year to just get more predictive because I find more
36:38data and I think of different ways to do things. But uh the model views Luther Burton right now with that draft capital
36:45as a prospects. This is before year one even happened in a very comparable bucket as a mecha Ibuka and Tedoro McMillan. It really liked, you know, it
36:53liked McMillan, it really liked Ibuka, but it really really really likes Luther Burton. And so I'm coming at this from the perspective of like this wasn't a
37:02one-off season for me where, you know, he had this excellent yards per route run rate, third best that we've seen, you know, since 2011 behind, you know,
37:10with with basically just sitting there with OBJ and Martavis Bryant, you know, from a from an efficiency standpoint.
37:16I'm not sitting there saying like like, oh, he's the exact same as other lowerish volume wide receivers who were able to be really really good per route
37:24run because there can be some noise in that. What I am saying is not many and look he he he averaged fewer than 10 PP
37:31or points per game. And if you just look at that one singular metric and you look at the wide receivers who hit beyond
37:36that first year after playing so poorly in points per game. Yeah. There there's not many that that hit, right? But I
37:42would also argue that not many of them had the same backbone of a profile as Luther Burton did. And they're not
37:48sitting in a Ben Johnson offense where it seems so abundantly clear to me that this is the Amanra St. Brown layup role.
37:56you know, this is the the get him in space, let him do work after the catch because that's what Luther Burton was
38:02amazing at in college, was amazing at last year. Uh I just I I see Burden as playing a very very similar role and I
38:10think that he's capable based on all the stuff I just talked about, right? And so with Roma Dun, you know, I don't even
38:16think that he's necessarily terrible value either because I'm thinking about range of outcome. So, if I'm drafting a ton of teams, I think that you can tell
38:23yourself a story that simulation in that single season of that draft that you're doing, saying, "Oh, I'm going to take Burden here. Sure, I'll I'll hedge a
38:30little bit because I understand that this can go south and I'll take Roma Dunay in this draft or Coloulston Love in this draft, whatever the case may
38:36be." But to me, Burden's the dude, uh, you know, in this in this offense. You have no more DJ Moore. Uh, like I said,
38:42I think there's going to be a lot more of those layup targets for him compared to a guy like a Dunay who's going to
38:47have to fight for them a little bit more. So catchable target rate will be there, you know, stronger for for burden
38:52than in a Dunay. And and it really comes down to the fact that in the end, like I I loved him as a prospect. And I don't
38:58think that there was anything that happened in year one that that that got me off of that. You also have Ben
39:03Johnson going out of his way every chance he opens his mouth and talks about Luther Burden that he's dropping like an absolute bar. It's not just
39:11like, oh, Luther Burton's doing well. He always says something like very cool about Luther Burden. He's buying Luther Burden stock. Luther Burton's like this
39:19football guy and it's like he's just so effusive with his praise on Luther Burton. It just feels like like something could happen. And I think you
39:27make a very like good point that this could be the Aman Ross St. Brown role, but it could also be the Aman Ross St.
39:34Brown roleesque with some Jameson Williams big plays mixed in. So, it's like the the mystery of this offense where Burden year two could be really
39:43really good. Um I am in on Luther Burton as well. I think he's a player you don't want to not have exposure to. I think he
39:50could end up he could end up being a wide receiver one if things all kind of trend his way.
39:54>> The other thing I want to point out with Burton is that he goes in a range of the draft where I love the wide receivers in
39:59that range. Like I mean we already talked about Waddle. I mean there's so you know T-Mac there's so many good wide
40:05receivers that get drafted in that range. And so like that's a great range for like auction drafts you know just go
40:09really really heavy uh with with that group. But when you look at the guys going around him, Lad McConi or you know
40:16the guys I just mentioned, all of them also have red flags. It's not like that range is is without them. And so when
40:22people sit there and they say, "Oh, I'm worried about the floor of burden uh you know, compared to the I mean that's why
40:28he's going where he's going right now."
40:30You know, like there's there's a low floor for all maybe not Garrett Wilson as much just because we've seen you know
40:35a floor, but I think the ceiling outcome is different for a guy like like Wilson versus Burton. So, I think that you have
40:40to give that context as well, you know, when you're thinking about whether you should draft Burden or not.
40:45>> Yeah, very, very interesting player.
40:47Let's talk about another wide receiver, and I've made a bull case for him. I had Jacob Gibbs on. We dropped some hot
40:53takes, and I said that I think Zay Flowers sets the Baltimore Ravens record for the most receptions in a season in
40:59franchise history. And then I asked you for your your flag plant must draft guys and you drop Z Flowers. He's moved up in
41:07ADP though, JJ. Like that's the one thing with with Zay. There's a lot of smart people, but the market on him, but
41:14a lot but the market has also steamed him up. He's going as like the wide receiver 14. Do you think this is a
41:20price that makes sense? And what's your bullcase here for Flowers having an awesome season?
41:25>> Yeah, I mean, I do think it makes sense.
41:27Um, you know, it's a lot easier to draft him when he was like wide receiver 19.
41:30Um, but but yeah, like like in the end, uh, I'm leaning in on on what we know is predictive and and what we know works.
41:38So, you know, last year I wasn't actually that high on on Z. And I I I still don't know if that was like a W or
41:44an L because most of the season he wasn't super usable, but then like he had some of these big weeks, whatever.
41:49Um, and I know that his end of season numbers look great because that final week and such, but the the reason I'm
41:54more into him this year is last year he showed off by far his best per route run efficiency. And that was largely in a
42:00season that that didn't have Lamar Jackson all year, right? So that's that's one reason. It was also in a in a
42:06in an offense that had fewer than 25 pass attempts per game. There's been 11 teams below the 27 mark since 2011. Each
42:13one of them threw more the following season. I think we're going to see more pass attempts for this Ravens offense year-over-year. You also have a new
42:19offensive coordinator that could lean into that as well who's also already praising Zay Flowers for what it's worth. Um, and then, you know, you look
42:26at, uh, you know, he was targeted on on over 24% of his routes over the last two years. Uh, there's so many per routeout
42:33run numbers that are just incredibly favorable for Flowers. Just that he's been stuck in this situation where two things are happening. Pass rate has been
42:40lower. Like I said, I think that's going to be a little bit higher this year. But then the other part is the the
42:44touchdowns, right? It's it's the end zone stuff. One of the things that I think is really intriguing about this though is that our you know our friend
42:50Matt Harmon does all the charting with reception perception and every single year Z Flowers has gotten better against press and he saw a similar thing happen
42:59with like an Alman Ross St. Brown and that's when they started to deploy him a little bit more in the red zone because
43:05they knew that he could win those matchups and and and and be a weapon, you know, in the end zone. So, I think
43:11there's a chance that we see a little bit of an uptick there. Uh, and then I look at market score and I look at his
43:15comps and Theo, one of his top comps is 2025 Jackson Smith and Jigba. So, that was that was one of the the market score
43:22things where I look at and I'm like, "All right, all right. I I'll I'll be I'll be way more in than I was before
43:28looking at uh some of these market score comps."
43:31>> Yeah. I mean, JJ's just took your Z Flowers could be this year's version of Chris Ave and he shoved it into a locker
43:37right there. That was pretty strong stuff. We've seen we've seen the target share go up every single year too where last year he was like 29% 30% target
43:47share guy. Uh so if this really comes into fruition then he could end up having truly elite metrics just like Jackson Smith and Jigba. This was uh
43:57absolutely unbelievable stuff today. JJ, um really excited for your guys. Let everybody know once again where they could get it and what you have coming
44:05out.
44:06>> Yeah, man. Over on late.com. Like I said, I'm updating it every week and uh you know, we're doing the the podcast
44:11thing. We just got a lot of shows all the time. I feel like I'm I'm never not behind the mic, but I love it. I'm sure
44:16you do, too. Uh but you can find everything over on late round.com.
44:20>> Yeah, check out the best ball stuff that JJ's putting out as well. Really, really great stuff. Uh and check out my
44:25rankings over at Rotoire. I'm doing a big PPR rankings update. And the beginning of August, we're going to have a big dynasty rankings roll out as well.
44:33Uh and stick with us here at Rotoire.
44:35We're gonna help you crush your fantasy leagues this