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STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

45 min
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49
Player insights
49
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownAinias SmithAmon-Ra St. BrownAnthony RichardsonAshton JeantyBhayshul TutenBo NixBrock PurdyChase BrownChris RodriguezChristian McCaffreyColston LovelandCourtland SuttonD.J. Moore
Player analysis

Player insights

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A.J. Brown

PositiveUsage10:12

JJ Zachary notes that seeing A.J. Brown running crossers through the middle of the field is a positive sign of increased offensive creativity compared to last season, suggesting a shift in how the team utilizes its playmakers.

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Ainias Smith

PositiveBreakout10:36

JJ Zachary suggests that Philadelphia's recent draft picks, including Ainias Smith, are part of a strategic plan to increase offensive creativity and allow players to move across the formation, moving away from previous limitations.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NegativeRole38:08

JJ Zachary identifies the 'Amon-Ra St. Brown layup role' as the ideal offensive fit for Luther Burden, noting that the Lions' scheme is designed to get players in space to maximize after-the-catch production.

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Anthony Richardson

NegativeProjection33:58

JJ Zachary uses Anthony Richardson as a benchmark for a usable but volatile fantasy profile where elite rushing ability provides a reliable floor for the quarterback.

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Ashton Jeanty

PositiveProjection40:35

JJ Zachary views Ashton Jeanty as a high-upside prospect who belongs in the same tier as Jonathan Taylor and James Cook, citing his predictive weighted opportunity metrics and the favorable offensive environment under Clint Kubiak.

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Bhayshul Tuten

PositiveBreakout36:45

JJ Zachary identifies Bhayshul Tuten as a high-ceiling target in the fifth or sixth round of drafts, citing his success at the goal line and strong collegiate production as a two-time second-team All-ACC selection and Senior Bowl invitee.

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Bo Nix

PositiveValue53:56

JJ Zachary suggests Bo Nix as a late-round quarterback option to pair with Malik Willis, providing fantasy managers with a strategy to secure stability by drafting two quarterbacks.

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Brock Purdy

PositiveValue53:50

JJ Zachary suggests pairing Malik Willis with Brock Purdy in fantasy drafts to balance the high-upside, volatile nature of Willis with the stability that Purdy provides at the quarterback position.

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Chase Brown

PositiveUsage25:26

JJ Zachary recommends Chase Brown as a high-upside target due to Cincinnati's stable offensive environment. Brown maintained strong peripherals even during early-season struggles (78% rush share, 13% target share) and surged to 21 PPR points per game once Joe Burrow returned. Zachary prefers Brown's pass-catching profile over backs with higher rush shares but lower target potential, noting his market similarity scores align with 2014 DeMarco Murray and 2016 Le'Veon Bell. Despite being a day-three pick, his multi-year production proves he is a legitimate NFL player.

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Chris Rodriguez

PositiveUsage24:14

JJ Zachary is pessimistic about Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s fantasy outlook due to his inability to catch passes. Rodriguez has caught fewer than 10 passes in his NFL career, and historical data for running backs with similarly low reception totals in their first three years shows they rarely become fantasy-relevant, making it unlikely he exceeds a 5-6% target share.

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Christian McCaffrey

PositiveProjection0:54

JJ Zachary identifies McCaffrey as a true league-winning asset who remains a central part of the offense; despite age and injury concerns causing a slight dip in efficiency last year, he would be a top-tier pick comparable to Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs if his health for a full 17-game season were guaranteed.

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Colston Loveland

NegativeValue38:36

JJ Zachary mentions Colston Loveland as a potential alternative to draft alongside or instead of Luther Burden when managing range-of-outcome risks in drafts.

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Courtland Sutton

NegativeUsage16:52

JJ Zachary views Courtland Sutton as a perennially overvalued player whose presence in the Denver offense creates unnecessary ambiguity. Zachary expresses skepticism toward the market's gravitation toward Sutton, arguing that concerns regarding a usage split between him and Jaylen Waddle are overstated and that Waddle is the superior fantasy option.

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D.J. Moore

NegativeUsage39:01

JJ Zachary notes that the absence of DJ Moore in the offense creates a clearer path for Luther Burden to command 'layup' targets compared to other receivers like Rome Odunze.

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De'Von Achane

PositiveBreakout3:46

JJ Zachary acknowledges that while some sharp players are fading Achane at his current cost due to concerns about the Dolphins' play-calling and quarterback situation, Achane remains a phenomenal talent coming off a 20-point-per-game season with upside to excel as the clear target earner.

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Drake Maye

NegativeProjection53:16

JJ Zachary references Drake Maye as the consensus late-round quarterback target from the previous season, serving as a historical benchmark for how the fantasy community identifies high-upside rushing quarterbacks.

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Emeka Egbuka

PositiveProjection18:43

JJ Zachariason notes that based on his top 10 historical comps, Emeka Egbuka projects as a top-five wide receiver in points per game, with the model consistently identifying him as a high-value prospect and a benchmark for high-tier talent.

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Garrett Wilson

PositiveProjection40:30

JJ Zachary distinguishes Garrett Wilson from other receivers in his draft range, noting that Wilson possesses a more established floor compared to other prospects whose ceiling outcomes may differ.

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J.K. Dobbins

PositiveValue8:35

JJ Zachary identifies J.K. Dobbins as a good player within the Chargers' running back rotation who could be a major riser this year, potentially scoring 14 touchdowns and having a massive rushing season.

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Jalen Hurts

NegativeUsage10:42

JJ Zachary acknowledges the criticism that Jalen Hurts does not throw to the middle of the field, but suggests that recent draft picks and a shift toward more creative offensive usage indicate potential for improvement in this area.

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Jameson Williams

PositiveRole39:34

JJ Zachary suggests that the Lions' offense could feature a mix of Amon-Ra St. Brown-style slot work and Jameson Williams-style big plays, creating a high-ceiling environment for the team's receivers.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveValue16:32

JJ Zachary is very high on Jaylen Waddle, noting that his ADP is suppressed by the presence of Courtland Sutton. Waddle is a year-six receiver entering his peak production years, joining a Denver offense that consistently ranks in the top 12 for wide receiver target share and averages over 33 pass attempts per game. Zachary emphasizes that the team's significant investment—trading a first, third, and fourth-round pick—guarantees Waddle will be a focal point of the offense.

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John Hightower

PositiveValue12:36

JJ Zachary identifies John Hightower as an interesting value play at his current ADP.

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Johnny Wilson

PositiveBreakout10:36

JJ Zachary highlights Johnny Wilson as a draft pick to watch in Philadelphia, noting the team's intent to use him creatively within the formation as part of a broader shift in offensive philosophy.

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JuJu Smith-Schuster

NegativeProjection36:08

JJ Zachary uses Juju Smith-Schuster as a historical benchmark for elite day-two wide receiver prospects within his model.

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Justin Fields

PositiveProjection34:05

JJ Zachary references Justin Fields' 2022 season, where he finished as the QB5 with 17 passing touchdowns, as a realistic ceiling for quarterbacks with high rushing volume.

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Justin Jefferson

NegativeProjection25:17

JJ Zachary compares Jaylen Waddle's historical efficiency (2.59 and 2.63 yards per route run in 2022-2023) to Justin Jefferson's elite production levels.

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Keaton Mitchell

PositiveRole8:40

Keaton Mitchell is described by JJ Zachary as the perfect fit for the speedy running back role utilized by the Mike McDaniel coaching tree.

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Keenan Allen

NegativeProjection36:08

JJ Zachary uses Keenan Allen as a historical benchmark for elite day-two wide receiver prospects within his model.

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Kenneth Walker III

NegativeRole26:30

JJ Zachary expresses liking Kenneth Walker as a player but notes that his situation has changed, introducing ambiguity regarding his role for the upcoming season.

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Kyren Williams

PositiveValue28:37

JJ Zachary highlights Kyren Williams as a prime example of a day-three running back who overcame initial prospect concerns through consistent, high-level production. Zachary argues that once a player establishes a multi-year sample of high-level performance, their original draft capital becomes irrelevant for fantasy evaluation.

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Ladd McConkey

PositiveUsage7:14

JJ Zachary expects the Chargers' offensive scheme to be beneficial for Ladd McConkey, noting that he will likely be on the field more frequently in various personnel groupings, including two-wide and 13 personnel, due to the team's heavy usage of motion. However, Zachary notes that McConkey carries specific red flags common to receivers in his draft range.

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Lamar Jackson

NegativeProjection32:54

JJ Zachary uses Lamar Jackson as a statistical benchmark for rushing production, noting that Jackson has averaged approximately eight points per game via rushing throughout his career. JJ Zachary uses Lamar Jackson as a statistical benchmark for rushing production, noting that Jackson averages approximately eight points per game via rushing over his career, which provides context for the high rushing output seen from other dual-threat quarterbacks.

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Luther Burden

PositiveBreakout35:17

JJ Zachary is high on Luther Burden, ranking him among the best day-two wide receiver prospects ever alongside Keenan Allen and Juju Smith-Schuster. Despite a low year-one PPG, his yards per route run efficiency is historically elite, ranking third since 2011 and comparable to early-career Odell Beckham Jr. and Martavis Bryant. Zachary expects him to thrive in a Ben Johnson-led offense, potentially filling an Amon-Ra St. Brown-esque 'layup' role that maximizes his after-the-catch ability, making him a potential WR1.

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Malik Willis

PositiveValue32:26

JJ Zachary identifies Malik Willis as an easy draft target due to his elite rushing floor. In three starts with Green Bay, he averaged 58 rushing yards and a touchdown, translating to 12 points per game via rushing—significantly outpacing Lamar Jackson's career average of eight points per game. If he provides even average passing production, Zachary expects him to be a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2.

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MarShawn Lloyd

NegativeRole26:45

JJ Zachary mentions uncertainty regarding the backfield split for MarShawn Lloyd, noting that it is currently difficult to project his usage.

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Martavis Bryant

NegativeProjection37:10

JJ Zachary cites Martavis Bryant as a historical benchmark for elite yards per route run efficiency, placing Luther Burden in a similar statistical bucket. JJ Zachary cites Martavis Bryant as a historical efficiency benchmark, noting that Luther Burden's yards per route run rate is among the best since 2011, sitting alongside Bryant and Odell Beckham Jr.

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Odell Beckham

NegativeProjection37:10

JJ Zachary cites Odell Beckham Jr. as a historical benchmark for elite yards per route run efficiency, placing Luther Burden in a similar statistical bucket. JJ Zachary cites Odell Beckham Jr. as a historical efficiency benchmark, noting that Luther Burden's yards per route run rate is among the best since 2011, sitting alongside Beckham and Martavis Bryant.

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Pat Bryant

NegativeUsage27:37

JJ Zachary notes that Pat Bryant saw increased usage down the stretch last season as the team moved away from Troy Franklin in the Z-receiver role.

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Raheem Mostert

NegativeRole8:52

Raheem Mostert is cited by JJ Zachary as a historical archetype for the type of speedster running back utilized in the current offensive scheme.

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Rome Odunze

NegativeValue38:16

JJ Zachary views Rome Odunze as a viable draft alternative to Luther Burden, suggesting that drafters can hedge their exposure by taking both players in different drafts, though he notes Odunze may have to fight harder for targets.

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Saquon Barkley

NegativeRole26:40

JJ Zachary points out that Saquon Barkley's outlook is currently uncertain due to the team's new offensive coordinator, making it difficult to project his exact role for the upcoming season.

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Tank Bigsby

PositiveBreakout19:16

JJ Zachary identifies Tank Bigsby as a year-two breakout candidate, citing a strong production profile and advanced metrics that outperformed Travis Etienne in EPA per rush, yards after contact per attempt, and success rate. Zachary argues that Bigsby's 2023 yards-per-carry was suppressed by heavy usage in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

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Tetairoa McMillan

NegativeProjection36:23

JJ Zachary compares Luther Burden's prospect profile to Tetairoa McMillan, noting that both were highly rated by his model. JJ Zachary uses Tetairoa McMillan as a prospect benchmark, noting that the model places Luther Burden in the same high-tier bucket as Egbuka and McMillan based on draft capital and profile.

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Trey McBride

NegativeValue2:26

JJ Zachary notes that McBride is a polarizing pick currently being drafted in the third or fourth round of PPR leagues; the uncertainty stems from whether the Cardinals' offense under LaFluer will lean into a tight end, given that McBride holds the record for most receptions by a tight end in a single season.

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Troy Franklin

NegativeRole25:52

JJ Zachary notes that Troy Franklin struggled in the Z-receiver role last season, failing to prove he could handle press coverage or blocking duties, which led to his reduced usage and the team moving toward other options like Pat Bryant down the stretch.

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Tyreek Hill

NegativeUsage25:26

JJ Zachary notes that Jaylen Waddle's target share was historically limited to around 23% in previous offenses because he was playing alongside Tyreek Hill.

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Xavier Legette

PositiveValue19:11

JJ Zachariason identifies Xavier Legette as a target because his market score ranks him as a fringe WR1 (WR9-10), despite subjective concerns regarding the Panthers' run-heavy offense and Bryce Young's situation.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveProjection40:53

JJ Zachary maintains a bullish stance on Zay Flowers, predicting he will set the Baltimore Ravens' single-season franchise record for receptions. Despite a rising ADP (WR14), Zachary confirms he still views the price as reasonable given the potential for a breakout season.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

420
0:06talking flag plant players and draft targets with JJ Zachary, Theo Griminger, Ruawire, lead fantasy football analyst.
0:14We're breaking it down. We are approaching the month of August here and it is time to draft. Uh JJ, before we
0:20get started with some of your flag plants, if you could know the final stats of any player in fantasy football, who would it be?
0:29I thought about this because you know questions like this you often want to go with players that can then impact other players or
0:36you would you would you would get information of other players on that team. So one of the guys that first came
0:40to mind was like Luther Burton because then you might be able to say oh if he had a great season that means that Roma
0:46Dunce or Coloulson Lovelin may not have and then that all of a sudden you're knocking out three guys as to who you
0:51would target and avoid in that situation. But I'm going to go even more simplistic than that. I'm just gonna say Christian McAffrey. I I I feel like in
1:00the end he's so polarizing and the only reason why he's not a top three pick overall is because of the age and the
1:08injury concerns. And yeah, there was a little bit of a drop off in efficiency last year, but we also know that they're
1:14still more than likely going to feed him. Uh he's still going to be a central part of that offense. And if we knew
1:19that he was playing 17 games and not seven games, then I think he would comfortably be a top, you know, right
1:27there with with Bejon and and Jir Gibbs.
1:29So, I'm going to say Christian McCaffrey just because he is that true league winning type player. And I would love to
1:34know if I can just full fade him or, you know, boost him up a little bit and be really heavy on him.
1:39>> That's a it's a great answer and I thought about it and I almost said CMC for mine as well. Um, for for me, I'll
1:46I'll take like uh I'll go I'll go with two guys that I'd love to know their final stats. And it's two of the guys
1:51that I feel like there's a lot of fades going on. Trey McBride. Is Trey McBride going to end up being like an edge pick
1:58or are all the faders correct? But there's formats where we're seeing Trey McBride like living in the third round.
2:05Potentially we'll have like some fourth round exposure in some of these regular PPR leagues for a guy that has the most
2:11catches in a two-year period ever at the tight end position. had the most receptions ever in a single season last year. Uh will Jacobe Brassette sort of
2:19start the entire year. Will the Laflur offense be able to uh completely lean into a tight end? We haven't really seen
2:25that in a in a McVey uh setting. And then Devon Achan, that's the one where I've had some really sharp people sort
2:31of fading him at cost. Uh where the fears of the unknown with Malik Willis uh with Bobby Slowick taking over as the
2:38play caller. But it's like Achan is also this phenomenal talent and he's coming off of a 20 point per game season. Uh
2:46maybe there's a chance that he excels as the clear target earner in Miami and and excels playing next to a mobile
2:54quarterback like Malik Willis. So, for me, it's a Chana McBride, but CMC an an absolutely awesome uh answer and one that could be incredibly tilting to see
3:03this, you know, 30-year-old running back uh who could potentially outscore those two guys going at the very top and Bejan and Jir Gibbs. So, really, really
3:11interesting. same similar question for you and I guess this could be end up being a team that produces a bunch of
3:18fantasy football ADP wins if we can identify the top offense but not sure you're going in this direction with your answer which new play caller has you
3:28sort of most excited for fantasy football this year >> I mean it has to be Mike McDaniel right yeah like it it has to be uh nothing
3:37against Greg Roman but he's not McDaniel you know Roman had some like motion in his offense. And but but we also know
3:44that it's more of that power uh power run game and it's it focuses a little bit more heavily on that even though we
3:50did see a little bit more uh a higher of a pass rate at times and through stretches um you know in that offense.
3:57But you just look at what what Mike McDaniel's working with. You get a probable top five offensive line with with Slater and Alt coming back. You
4:06have uh Justin Herbert who's one of the best just talents at least at the quarterback position. Um, I think it's going to be really interesting to see
4:13how uh, you know, they they deploy the offense personnel-wise simply just because you look at what they do have.
4:20They have like pretty good tight ends and decent players there, but they, you know, they they grab their fullback.
4:26They're going to probably run a very similar, you know, heavier scheme or at least none scheme that McDaniel's done historically. And I think that's going
4:34to be great for a guy like Lad Mani um because he's going to be out on the field more frequently in um you know
4:41either two wide or even even 13 personnel um type situations. Um you know we've seen McDaniel over the last four years as head coach. His teams have
4:50have ranked first or second in motion every single year that he's been head coach. And we know just statistically that that has led to uh not not just
4:58with McDaniel, but I'm saying across the league and leaguewide when you have that kind of trend. Uh it it leads to better
5:04fantasy production and it leads to more efficient offenses. So you just bring it all together. It's just it could be a
5:10smash. Like I would I don't think anyone should be shocked if they have the best offense in football this year. Like I
5:15think it's a very very real tangible outcome. You have good running backs too. I think Amari Hampton's a good player. Um, you know, they've Keith
5:21Mitchell now, who is like a the perfect kind of fit with what McDaniel has has used and what that Shanahan kind of tree
5:28has used historically with those really speedy backs. I mean, you could even go back to like a Raheem Mostard is that
5:33kind of like like speedster. Um, and I know that that you know they had Devon Achan obviously, but but even Mostard like was that kind of
5:41player. It's just that Devon Achan was even more of that kind of player and so we kind of typ casted those guys into
5:48particular roles. So, I'd say McDaniel is one. If you wanted like a secondary one that I'm excited about is Shawn Manion probably in Philadelphia. Uh,
5:56simply because he's not Kevin Patulo.
5:57Uh, in the end, you know, um, Patulo, if you look at what he did last year, you know, the the play action rate was
6:04lower, motion was lower, fewer RPOs. You look at wide receiver charts and and and uh the the routes that these guys were
6:12running. You know, there was a clip of AJ Brown yesterday dropping a ball from Drake May on a crosser and everyone's
6:18like, "Oh man, they they don't have their chemistry together." And I'm sitting there and I'm like, "Wait, AJ Brown ran a crosser? Like AJ Brown's
6:23going through the middle of the field?
6:24That's amazing." You know? Um and so like we just didn't see that creativity at all for that Philadelphia offense last year. And you know, we don't know
6:31what this offense is is definitely going to look like. But what I'm kind of intrigued by is that you get draft picks
6:37of Eli Sters and Mai Lemon for Philadelphia this year. And that to me, you know, you could sit here and say
6:43like Jaylen Hurst doesn't throw to the middle of the field. And I think that there's some validity to that for sure,
6:47but I don't think a sharp team like Philadelphia makes those picks without knowing what they're doing with the kind of players that those guys are. I think
6:55Lemon can play inside out, don't get me wrong, but uh you know, even as a slot player where he can thrive or Sters in
7:01the middle of the field where he can thrive. I think Philadelphia knows what they're doing and they're trying to get more creative and allow these guys to
7:06just kind of move all over the formation and and that's just more of a plus for a guy like Manion. So, I'm I'm excited for
7:12this Philadelphia offense as well to sort of at least be better than what we saw last year.
7:16>> I'm two for two now with with sharp guests who wanted who are excited about Shawn Manion. Um Hayden Winks had the
7:23exact same answer. Uh, and then the the the using motion where he talked about with Mike McDaniel, Jacob Gibbs and Ryan
7:30Heath also sort of talked about that.
7:32Uh, so we've had like sort of a constant drum beat. It has to be McDaniel.
7:36McDaniel's the one. There's so many guys there in LA. It feels like this could be the Justin Herbert MVP season. It feels
7:43like this could be Omar and Hampton could be like the biggest riser this year and fall in the end zone 14 times
7:49and have a huge rushing season and next year he's like the fifth overall pick in 2027 drafts and then like you said the
7:56you know the lad maki uh some of these other guys at ADP really interesting even Gadson super interesting at his current cost. LA could rise a lot of
8:05tides ADP-wise. JJ, you just finished your draft guide. It's awesome. Every year you do such a good job with this.
8:12Um, talk about it. Let everybody know kind of where they can find it.
8:16>> Yeah, so the draft guide, you know, I know there's a lot of guides out there that look at like players to target and
8:21player profiles and stuff like that. I go with more of a game theory angle and a strategy angle. And so there's like
8:27200 pages of me talking through my process in Fantasy People, how to spot breakouts and bus and what to look for
8:34versus what the market typically does.
8:36So it's very game theory and strategy oriented. Um, so yeah, it's a it's a a PDF you can download. It's designed
8:42well. We care about the design stuff, so it won't be an eyesore if you're opening it up. Uh, and it's on lateround.com.
8:48Uh, and it updates weekly, so every Friday you'll get a new guide in your inbox with updated players to target, avoid, rankings, all that kind of stuff.
8:55But uh hopefully you know you read it and you you uh you think about the game a little bit differently.
9:00>> Yeah. And talk about market score, which is something that I know you've explained on like your own podcast, but uh how market score came to be, how
9:07you're utilizing it, and has market score influenced your takes with any players and your willingness to draft them, your open-mindedness to them sort
9:16of exceeding your own expectations based on the data.
9:20>> Yeah. So this is year one with market score. What it is is, so I have the Zap model, which is a prospect model, right?
9:25And and and essentially what the Zap model does is that it looks at draft capital, where these players were actually drafted, and then it looks at
9:31all these other inputs from a collegiate production standpoint. You know, there's teammates score, all sorts of stuff that gets thrown in there with draft capital,
9:39and it spits out a zap score. So, a player score from zero to 100. And then that tells me how how good or bad a
9:46certain player might perform across the first three years of his NFL career.
9:49Now, I sat there and I said, "What if we had a zap score for reddraft leagues, but instead of draft capital, we were
9:55looking at average draft position, right?" And so, essentially what this what market score does is it takes a player's average draft position and it
10:03says, "Okay, ADP itself is pretty predictive. It's not like perfect, but it definitely tells you, you know, generally the direction that a player is
10:11going to be going in or how good or bad that player is going to perform." And so what market score does is that it takes
10:16ADP as a foundational piece and then it adds all these previous season inputs that are predictive that make ADP essentially more predictive than ADP
10:26itself. And so you know you might see a guy who's 60th and it's a scale from zero to 100 just like Zapore, but there
10:32might be a guy who's being draft a wide receiver who's drafted 60th overall and he has a market score of you know 50.
10:39Uh, and then a guy who's drafted 65th overall who has a market score of 70.
10:44And then that's telling you that that guy who's a little bit later is just more of a value than the guy who's going
10:48a little bit earlier. Um, and so to me, it's more of like a it's just another metric that we're looking at to make
10:55sure that we're, you know, checking all of our boxes, crossing our tees, dotting our eyes, all that kind of stuff. And it
11:01does like some of the cool things you can do with market scores like look at historical comps, for instance, right?
11:05where you can find a player's market score, you can look at his career year, and you can look at his overall ADP and
11:11find the most similar players in history who have have have similar numbers like that. And then that could also make you
11:18feel more or less confident in a certain player, right? So, I did that exercise on a podcast a couple weeks ago and
11:23achuka based on his top 10 comps was like a top five wide receiver and projected points per game. And it's like, okay, I got to dig into this more.
11:31You know, what is this saying? Why is it saying this? And there's just good comp after good comp after good comp. Another
11:36guy that mark now market score likes Ibuka. It doesn't have him ranked top five, but it has him ranked pretty high.
11:41A a guy that definitely, you know, I've been scared of because of situation and market score is trying to capture situation in its uh in its calculation.
11:51But one player who's like the wide receiver nine or 10 in market score right now is Tedaro McMillan. Um where I've been more subjectively turned off
11:59by the situation for obvious reasons.
12:01you know, run heavy offense, Bryce Young, etc. But, you know, objectively, I know he's an incredibly talented player and he had an incredibly talented
12:10and and strong, I should say, and productive rookie season. Uh, but market score is looking at this and saying he's a guy that you should be targeting this
12:18year. You know, he he is he is, you know, he's being drafted, let's say, at like wide receiver 16, 17, 18, uh, if
12:25not later in some drafts, but realistically, he's he's a fringe wide receiver one in the way that market score is looking at him. So, that's one
12:31player that has made me make sure that I'm not underweight on, you know, in in in the baseball streets because I think
12:37it's really easy for players like that to lose sight of because they're not in good environments. And, you know, oftentimes it it does come down to in
12:44fantasy football to just draft the good players because in the end, circumstances change and situations aren't as predictable as we think.
12:51>> Yeah, it's really really interesting stuff. I think McMillan is is a classic example. And you know, you sold all of
12:57my listeners and viewers by saying that Acha Eggbuka uh has such a high market score there, uh JJ, cuz we're we're all
13:04about this offseason. I mean, I don't even need to bring them up and and my smart guests are coming on here and
13:10doing it. Let's dive into some of your flag plant players. These are sort of your mustdraft guys and guys that I'm
13:18sure you are drafting a ton of in your best ball builds right now. Let's start off with Jaylen Wadd. It was like a
13:25steady drum beat of like multiple guests in a row sort of talking about Jaylen Wadd and his upside at his ADP cost. And
13:34we've seen him come up a little bit, but he's still in such a great range to return a ton of value. What are you
13:40seeing with him this year, his situation, and why do you love him so much for fantasy football? Yeah, you know, one of the things that you should
13:48be looking for in that range of your draft are wide receivers that are in more ambiguous situations because that often drives down players costs, but uh
13:56realistically like good players emerge from those situations all the time. And the ambiguity right now is Courtland Sutton, you know, is other, you know,
14:05relatively okay enough pass catchers that could command some looks in the offense. And, you know, if Courtland Sutton didn't exist, I would imagine
14:12Jaylen Wadd would be going higher in drafts, right? So, like his presence is bringing down Jaylen Wadd's ADP. I don't think that should be the case. Um, if
14:20you look at Wadd, you know, last year he still had about a 2.2 yards per hour run rate. He saw target on over 24% of his
14:27routes run. He converted 11 and a half% of those into first downs. A really, really good um, you know, rate. He's a
14:34year six wide receiver, which oftentimes that's when we see peak production at the wide receiver position. Now, he joins Denver. Denver over the last two
14:43years has averaged over about 33 and a half pass attempts per game. Uh they've had at least that that amount of pass
14:49attempts per game, which is an above average mark. Um you know, they they uh they've ranked ninth and 12th in wide
14:55receiver target share. Davis Webb is taking over as offensive coordinator. Um I think there's a little bit of of extra juice there that's exciting. And if you
15:02look at Wadd across his five NFL seasons, he's played in an offense that has had a positive EPA per play just
15:10twice, 2022 and 2023. So it's like the early McDaniel stuff, right? In those two seasons, he had yards per route run
15:17rates of 2.59 and 2.63, which is like Justin Jefferson on a per routeout run basis, right? The difference is that back then he had Tyreek Hill, so he was
15:27getting like a 23% target share or so.
15:29Not even a 23% target share in those offenses. But now he's got this ex receiver in Courtland Sutton who is fine. Like I think Courtland Sutton's a
15:38solid player. I think he's like perennial perennially overvalued in fantasy personally, but uh you know I think he's a he's an okay enough player.
15:45Um but I think Jaylen Wadd's going to end up playing the Z role in this offense. And if you remember last
15:52season, there was a stretch of like four or five games where Troy Franklin, who was playing this role, Troy Franklin was
15:59out targeting Courtland Sutton consistently over this like fiveweek stretch, right? And and I think Jaylen Wadd is going to step in and be better.
16:07They I mean, they looked at Troy Franklin, they're like, "This isn't you.
16:09You you're not going to be able to play this role. Like, this is not, you know, you're not good enough off press. You're
16:14a little bit too small. You're not great at blocking." That's why we started seeing a little bit more Pat Bryant as
16:18well down the stretch last year. They go out, they send strong draft capital to get to get Jaylen Wadd. Every single
16:25metric points to Waddle being a very, very, very good player. And to me, you don't do what they did. Uh, and then
16:32place this player in this particular role without feeding that player. So, I'm very high on what Waddle could do in this Denver offense.
16:39>> I mean, I think you you nailed it. and Wadd. It's to me it's you you just look at how much they paid for the him as
16:46well where they trade a first round pick, a third round pick and a fourth round pick to go out and get him. Uh
16:52it's an awesome opportunity for him. The threat of Sutton, I don't understand the people sort of gravitating towards the Sutton side where there's still a whole
17:01segment saying that Wadd's going to be this guy that helps them stylistically, but it's going to be some sort of split
17:07usage. To me, it's just it it's it's right in front of our faces. But Wadd's also going in a range of drafts where
17:14he's up to wide receiver 21, but I don't know if he's going to rise up more. So, he's going to sort of stay in this
17:20really easy to draft range, I think, for the rest of the summer. Even with smart people like yourself on him and I've had
17:27so many guests that are on Jaylen Wadd, it's like is he gonna be able to leapfrog, Garrett Wilson, a potentially healthy Malik Neighbors, Lad Mcconi,
17:36Tedo McMillan? There's like this resistance point at ADP that's made him into just this strong strong value. So I think Wadd just a fantastic
17:46player to draft. Let's talk about a running back though. And when we get into like the traditional dead zone, there's this group of kind of appealing
17:56year two backs, but you're gravitating towards Bashial Toutin. Uh he's become like sort of a flag plant guy for you, a
18:04very onbrand guy for you. Talk about the appeal of Toutin in year two in the Liam Cohen offense.
18:10>> Look, well, first off, I thought Tutin was a good prospect. And I know that like oftentimes people think that I'm
18:16just like that that that's someone who would say something that is just like enamored with the 40 time and such. No,
18:20I I thought he had a pretty complete production profile even when age adjusted and and and uh team and schedule adjusted. Like I looked at
18:28Tutin as having a really really strong profile. The Zap model viewed Bashaw Tutin as almost a comparable player to R.J. Harvey and that includes draft
18:37capital. RJ Harvey obviously had a much better uh draft had much better draft capital than Toutin did. So my starting point is I think Tutin is a good player
18:46and I think if we look at what happened last year, people are overstating, you know, the yards per carry for instance
18:53when a large portion of that was on short yardage situations. You know, they used him a lot on the goal line. He had
18:59seven goal line uh attempts out of his like 87 carries. Travis ETN or Achan uh he had 12 carries uh on 180 more rush
19:08attempts, 12 goal line carries. So he only had five more goal line carries, but far far more overall rush attempts.
19:14So the proportion of of carries that Tutin was seeing was much higher coming at the goal line than what we saw with
19:21Travis ETN. When you look at the advanced metrics, there are some that ETN looked better than Toutin at, but a lot of them Tutin actually beat out ETN
19:28last year. Uh he was better in EPA per rush. He was better in yards after contact per attempt. Uh he was 11
19:34percentage points higher in success rate than Travis ETN. And so I'm looking at this backfield right now. Number one, uh, not only as a coaching staff, but
19:43many sharp coaching staffs across the league, they they they smartly look at the running back position as not as you not wanting to throw a running back out
19:52there that will show defenses what you're going to do. In other words, you don't want to have a pure third down
20:00back or a pure early down runner. uh because you're not going to disguise what you're going to be doing offensively with those players, which is
20:07exactly why we've seen the Rams and Shawn McVey go with Blake Corm and rotate drives with Kairen Williams because instead of rotating them out in
20:18situation in certain situations, telling the defense what you might be doing now, you have no idea if both of them are
20:23doing the same thing, it's just that Kairen Williams is maybe getting some some more of the higher leverage stuff, right? So you look at this backfield
20:31right now and then the the other thing that Jacksonville and this coaching staff has talked about is that they want explosive plays. Baltin
20:38generated those explosive plays like crazy throughout college. He didn't do it that much last year. In fact, that's probably the biggest red flag of what
20:47happened last year for Tuton, but it's also a fairly small sample. And like I said, they were using him at the goal
20:52line in these short yardage situations.
20:54So we look at what he's working against Laquin Allen. So So that's that's established. I think he's good. Right.
21:00Then we look at what he's working against. Laquin Allen was very much so just used as a third down running back
21:06last year and I think that's their vision for this year. I don't really see a reason as to why that would
21:10significantly change. And then you look at them adding Chris Rodriguez.
21:14Rodriguez doesn't catch passes. He hasn't done that. He didn't do that throughout college. He hasn't done that throughout the NFL. I looked at players
21:21through their first three years who have had as few of of receptions as Chris Rodriguez has had. And those players never really pan out. You got to reach
21:30like maybe a little bit like around like the 20 to 25 reception mark and then you start to get some random hits like a
21:36Mark Ingram for instance. Um you know was that low through the first few years of his career. Um I just don't see this
21:42like turning and Chris Rodriguez all of a sudden being a more than a even a five or six% target share player when he's
21:50caught fewer than 10 passes throughout his NFL career. And so, not only that, the the the the upside case for a guy like Rodriguez or
21:59the the thing that could hurt Toutin most is the short yardage stuff. We hear that all the time, right? Tuten was
22:05great at the goal line. He had a really high success rate last year all things considered. And so, I don't know that
22:09that's even a lock that they use Chris Rodriguez, you know, all the time in those situations. I think Rodriguez is like fine, especially, you know, he's
22:18one of those players that people um might be more afraid of in baseball, but I would lean into him more in best
22:23baseball because I think his production is going to be pretty unpredictable. But I think he will get some touches in the
22:27back field. But to me, we're sitting in like round five and I I think people also overstate the the uh the hit rates
22:35of round five players in general. I'm going to go for ceiling. And I think the ceiling case sits and rests with Bashalt
22:41Tutin. Um, and we're already seeing some hype happening, you know, out of out of Jacksonville camp.
22:46>> I mean, I think you laid it out perfectly. A couple things to address.
22:50When people are looking and thinking Bashel Tutin's just some speed score guy um that tore it up at the NFL combine, I
22:56mean, it's it's couldn't be further away from the truth. He was North Carolina ENT, had a big year there, transferred up to the ACC and was like second team
23:06all ACC twice. Set the Virginia Tech record for rushing yards in a game. had a 266 uh yard game against Boston
23:15College with like four touchdowns. Had like a smash game there. And then he was a senior bowl invite in a year where it
23:21was inc like we all talked about how good the 2025 uh class was at the running back position. He gets a senior
23:27bowl invite. So that's great. And then we look at sort of the environment he's in. Completely agree with you. It's tootin over Rodriguez. But when you look
23:35at Liam Cohen, back-to-back years of Cohen producing like a huge ADP winner, Bucky Irving in 2024, last year Travis ETN, and Toutton's just there. So, I'm
23:46with you. I think Bashel Tutin at his current price tag running back 24 uh during the time of recording. He's trended up a little bit, but I think
23:55you're going to see some sixth round exposure in reddraft leagues and late fifth round, like five, six turn guy when it's all said and done. And even if
24:02he steams up a little bit with a strong camp, you're still looking at a fifth round click. Uh I I think Tutin's a
24:08great pick. Um it's a big fade on on Rodriguez for me as well. I think he could fall in the end zone a few times.
24:14Rodriguez can end up being like you said a guy that helps you in baseball. But Toutton has the ability to beat his ADP
24:19at the running back position by like 10 spots if it all goes well. So I'm with you on Bashel Tutin. Really fun one.
24:26Before we keep going with your uh other flag plant guys, just speaking of the running back position, we've got this huge huge tier of guys going in round
24:35two right now really when you start at like the Ashton Genty and you work your way down to like Derk Henry, is there a
24:44particular player in that range of running backs that you think stands out or are you open-minded to a few guys there?
24:51>> Yeah, I like a lot of guys there to be honest with you. Um, I I would say that, you know, if we include Genty, I think
24:57Genty is really interesting just because I think he belongs more in like the Jonathan Taylor, James Cook tier than he does in that tier. Uh, just just given,
25:05you know, what he was as a prospect, his weighted opportunity last year being a lot more predictive than his yards per
25:11carry average. You get Tyler Linderbomb and, uh, you know, Colton Miller's back from injury. uh Clint Kubiaak obviously coming and I think we're gonna see a lot
25:19of those zone runs where he hits the outside and those are the the money makers for fantasy football purposes. So there's a lot to like about Genty. But
25:26the guy that I'll throw out there that's like very firmly in that running back room range is is Chase Brown. Um if you
25:34look at his first six games last year, he averaged just 9.7 PPR points per game, but he had a 78% running back rush
25:41share. He had a 13% target share. The peripherals were there. He just wasn't converting. And obviously Jake Browning was playing for those games. And then
25:48after that, from then on out, 20.4 PPR points per game. He averaged 21 PPR points per game with Joe Burrow last
25:55year. Um, if you look at his market score comps, like I was talking about earlier, his two closest and similarity score are 2024 or 2020 I I I think I
26:04wrote this this 2014 maybe DeMarco Murray uh and then 2016 Le'Veon Bell.
26:10They scored 22 and 21.2 2 PPR points per game in that closest comp season. And then the one thing with Chase Brown,
26:17like you look at some of the other running backs in that range, like uh Devon Achan, like his his situation has
26:23changed completely year-over-year, even though he's on the same team. Kenneth Walker, who I like a lot, his situation obviously has changed and there's a
26:30little bit of ambiguity there with him.
26:32We don't know exactly what that's going to look like. Saquon Barkley, we don't know exactly what that's going to look like because they have a new offensive
26:37coordinator. You go down the list, all of these running backs, you know, Marian Hampton, we don't know what the backfield split's going to look like.
26:42All of these backs have these sort of like morphed and changed environments where we'd have to do some projecting.
26:48We don't have to do that really with Cincinnati, right? It's one of the most stable offensive environments year-over-year that you can find in the
26:54league and especially during a year where so much change. We have so many new offensive coordinators and so many changes across offenses. I think the the
27:02the offensive line, this is the first time I heard this from Brandon Thorne on the ETR podcast. I was listening to it
27:08on on the drive back from uh from the Fantasy Football Expo and Brandon Thorne was on, who I think is one of the best,
27:15if not the best offensive line guys out there. He noted that this was the first year that Joe Burrow has the same
27:21offensive line year-over-year in his entire NFL career. And so, we know that's been a huge issue for them historically. But this year, we might
27:29see a little bit of a jump in terms of their effectiveness up front. And to me, all that does is scream Chase Brown
27:34being a great uh, you know, guy that that that you want in your squad. I mean, he's Joe Bur with Joe Burrow last
27:39year, he was like a 14% target share player. And and I'm going to lean into that kind of profile more than the guy
27:44who gets like an 80% running back rush share because yeah, Brown might end up with like a 60 65% running back rush.
27:50But I'll lean into the guy who's catching passes a lot more heavy he heavily, especially with the unchanging environment versus the guy who we don't
27:58know if he's going to even hit a 10% target share.
28:01>> Yeah, it's a really really fun uh range.
28:03Brown, you make a great case for him. It feels like it's a like a safe pick, but the upside is all there. 69 catches last
28:10year, too. So, uh there's like a few things about Brown that we don't like. I always have this this question like with
28:18with Scott Barrett when we were discussing it when I was recording School of Scott with him when I was at Fantasy Points was like is Chase Brown
28:26like an elite talent and I think it doesn't really matter because the environment boosts him so so much and I think he is pretty talented too.
28:33>> I think he's good.
28:34>> I think that's part of the problem too.
28:35Like there like look don't get me wrong when we look at cuz we test all sorts of of statistics against the market and
28:41against ADP when we do the draft guide every year. I say we, it's been, it was we this year because I hired Brandon
28:46Gdul. It's usually just me, but we and the royal sets. It makes it makes it makes it sound larger. Larger company,
28:51right? [laughter] >> Exactly. Exactly. Just my brain.
28:54>> Me and the team. Yeah.
28:55>> Yeah. It's just it's just me sitting in mom's basement testing these correlations. Um but like like if you look at early round running backs
29:02historically, the players who have been bad prospects, they don't hit at at as high of a rate. I say bad prospect for
29:08Chase Brown. I liked him as a prospect, but he's obviously going to be brought down in zap score in any sort of bottle
29:13because he was drafted on day three, right? You run into the same issue with Kairen Williams, but realistically, once you have a multi-year sample of that
29:21player being good, it doesn't matter anymore. You can you can throw it out.
29:24It's more so what you should be wary of are the players who had a big, let's say, rookie season that were day three
29:30guys and then they get catapulted up into that like top 18 running back range and they were day three picks. like you
29:37should be a little bit scared of those guys because there's not that much of a backbone there. But if those guys then
29:42every once in a while you get a Kairen or a Chase Brown and they show you that year in and year out they can be the
29:47dude, you can forget about, you know, the the how how they looked as a prospect and just realize that they're just good players.
29:53>> For sure. And I think one thing that should get everybody excited like you you you were the late round quarterback
29:59guy and then over the years you've sort of like evolved your takes here kind of depending on the market and the
30:05availability of rushing yards and you've talked about it at length like JJ um on your shows. Go check out JJ's pods. But
30:12you've talked about how like the market has adjusted for rushing ability at the quarterback position and now we have to pay for it ADP. But maybe this year,
30:22maybe this year we're fully back in and you've got a guy that you're flagging as a target for you. Uh that's going very
30:29late. QB21 in the most recent ADP.
30:33>> Yeah. Look, I mean with with quarterback, I've been saying for for years now that the market's gotten sharper and you can see that in R
30:40squared. If you look at the top 18 quarterbacks versus how many points per game they actually score, so ADP to actual production, top 18 quarterbacks
30:48back in 2015, 2016, 2017, there was zero correlation. You literally could throw a dart and find the QB1 in a given year in
30:56the top 18 because uh there weren't as many of these like stable rushing quarterbacks. I say stable because rushing points per game correlates more
31:05than twice as well uh to next season production as passing points per game do. So, so passing points per game is
31:10just really volatile, right? And and I've said for a while that the way that this sort of shifts and changes because
31:16over the last 5 years, we've gotten, you know, it peaked in like 2021 where that R squared was really high, where the
31:22market was really good at predicting who the top 18 quarterbacks were going to be. But every year since then, it's gotten lower and lower and lower. And to
31:29me, the main reason for that is because we've been introduced to more and more dual threat quarterbacks. You look across the NFL, there really aren't that
31:36many. Like there are just as many guys who can give you something with their legs. When I say something, I mean like
31:41three to four points per game via rushing, right? The Tyler Shucks of the world who I like as a late round dart
31:47throw, right? Um those guys can give you something with their legs and then if they have a relatively special season through the air, then all of a sudden
31:54they're they're elite fantasy quarterbacks. We're getting more and more of those guys. Last year was so obvious it was going to be Drake May.
31:59Like everyone everyone was on Drake May.
32:00Every analyst that that was was you know paying attention was on Drake May. this year. I don't think there's like an
32:06obvious obvious guy like that necessarily, but Malik Willis is one who to me you have to like he's the easiest click on the board I think in all of
32:16fantasy football and in a in a regular home league type environment, you know, because if he doesn't pan out, you drop
32:23him, you stream, you can get low-end QB1 production via streaming or what I think you should be doing this year, pair him
32:30with someone else. pair him with a Brock party to get that stability and still some upside or even wait longer, you
32:36know, wait longer than a perturie and get a Bo Knicks with Malik Willis. You know, you you will uh you you can get
32:42some of that stability and I think it's okay to draft two quarterbacks. But look, you look at what he did in Green
32:46Bay, he averaged 58 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in his three starts there. That translated to about 12 points per game via rushing, which for
32:54the record with Lamar Jackson, if you want to give this context, Lamar Jackson's more of like an eight point per game rushing quarterback uh across
33:01his career. We're talking about 12 in his three games for Malik Willis uh in Green Bay. Um we don't know what he's
33:08like as a passer. Let's just be honest, you know, like I'm fine with leaning into that ambiguity and just saying like
33:13I have no idea if Malik Willis is going to be a great pastor or not. But the bottom line is if they deploy him the
33:19way that he's been used historically, we know he has good rushing, like he has a great rushing prowess, like he's unbelievably athletic, he's good at
33:26making plays with his legs. If they deploy him the way that we think they're going to deploy him, this is his floor
33:31in fantasy football, like like drafting him in this area. If he has even like a above average passing season, he's going
33:38to more than likely be a low-end QB1, high-end QB2. So, you're going to get some equity there. But then the question
33:43is like what if he just ends up being kind of special and now all of a sudden you're inching towards that like QB8
33:50range and I know the situation there looks putrid on paper and I don't disagree. I think the most likely outcome is that he gives us a lot of
33:58good rushing production. the passing production is very questionable and it's more of like an Anthony Richardson type situation, you know, where where it's
34:05more of the very usable or Justin Fields type situation where it's very very usable, but it's a little bit volatile and you know, you you you aren't
34:16necessarily getting those like insane spike weeks week in and week out, but the floor is there because of that rushing ability. That's probably the
34:23most likely outcome, but you're not paying up to get this ceiling. Like that that is the floor outcome in my opinion
34:29as long as he's starting. So to me, he's like the easiest click on the board this year.
34:33>> Yeah. I mean, the the Justin Fields one was what I was going to say where Justin Fields had 17 touchdown passes in 2022
34:41and finished as the QB5. I mean, that's a bar I think we could hit. Um, and I know you've done a ton of research on
34:47this. I know Rich Rebar has as well. Ian Hardit's dropped a and I'm sure you know this stat. Ian Hard dropped this awesome
34:54stat where since 2014 there have been 34 quarterbacks with 100 plus rush attempts in a season. 91% of them finish as a top
35:0212 quarterback in fantasy. So it's the it's the rushing floor for for Willis.
35:06It's really really exciting stuff. Let's pivot back over to the wide receiver position. Um dealer's choice. You got two left JJ. Uh which one do you want to
35:16talk about first?
35:17>> Let's go Luther Burden next. Uh, it's funny. I I sent a tweet out this week where it was something along the lines
35:22of like, "Hey, look, if you think that that Burdton's bad a bad pick at cost, that's that's fine. If you think that
35:26he's a good pick at cost, that's fine, too." Uh, because there's there's a range of outcomes here. And I totally recognize the range of outcomes with
35:32Luther Burton. And I think it's important to anyone listening that like with fantasy analysis, you know, you should be thinking about where things
35:40can go south and where things look good.
35:42And and the way that I play fantasy football is that I'm going to be more gravitated towards the the the northern
35:48side, you know, the the the it going well side as opposed to the south side because uh in the end, you know, as as
35:54our our buddy Scott Barrett would say, upside wins championships, right? So, uh with Burton, you know, this is kind of a
36:01Baltin thing for me too where where I thought Burton was an excellent prospect, like excellent like one of the best in the Zap model database. It's
36:10like him and and Keenan Allen and Juju Smith Schustster as some of the best day two wide receiver picks that the model's
36:16ever seen.
36:17>> And I I'll say I'll say when I remember doing this with you and this was at the time where you had guys like Ibuka and
36:23Tedro McMillan, you you had uh Luther Burton, I believe, as your number one wide out based on the Zap score.
36:30>> Yeah. Pre-draft last year, he was the wide receiver one in the model.
36:33postdraft. Uh and and you know the model I iterate the model every year to just get more predictive because I find more
36:38data and I think of different ways to do things. But uh the model views Luther Burton right now with that draft capital
36:45as a prospects. This is before year one even happened in a very comparable bucket as a mecha Ibuka and Tedoro McMillan. It really liked, you know, it
36:53liked McMillan, it really liked Ibuka, but it really really really likes Luther Burton. And so I'm coming at this from the perspective of like this wasn't a
37:02one-off season for me where, you know, he had this excellent yards per route run rate, third best that we've seen, you know, since 2011 behind, you know,
37:10with with basically just sitting there with OBJ and Martavis Bryant, you know, from a from an efficiency standpoint.
37:16I'm not sitting there saying like like, oh, he's the exact same as other lowerish volume wide receivers who were able to be really really good per route
37:24run because there can be some noise in that. What I am saying is not many and look he he he averaged fewer than 10 PP
37:31or points per game. And if you just look at that one singular metric and you look at the wide receivers who hit beyond
37:36that first year after playing so poorly in points per game. Yeah. There there's not many that that hit, right? But I
37:42would also argue that not many of them had the same backbone of a profile as Luther Burton did. And they're not
37:48sitting in a Ben Johnson offense where it seems so abundantly clear to me that this is the Amanra St. Brown layup role.
37:56you know, this is the the get him in space, let him do work after the catch because that's what Luther Burton was
38:02amazing at in college, was amazing at last year. Uh I just I I see Burden as playing a very very similar role and I
38:10think that he's capable based on all the stuff I just talked about, right? And so with Roma Dun, you know, I don't even
38:16think that he's necessarily terrible value either because I'm thinking about range of outcome. So, if I'm drafting a ton of teams, I think that you can tell
38:23yourself a story that simulation in that single season of that draft that you're doing, saying, "Oh, I'm going to take Burden here. Sure, I'll I'll hedge a
38:30little bit because I understand that this can go south and I'll take Roma Dunay in this draft or Coloulston Love in this draft, whatever the case may
38:36be." But to me, Burden's the dude, uh, you know, in this in this offense. You have no more DJ Moore. Uh, like I said,
38:42I think there's going to be a lot more of those layup targets for him compared to a guy like a Dunay who's going to
38:47have to fight for them a little bit more. So catchable target rate will be there, you know, stronger for for burden
38:52than in a Dunay. And and it really comes down to the fact that in the end, like I I loved him as a prospect. And I don't
38:58think that there was anything that happened in year one that that that got me off of that. You also have Ben
39:03Johnson going out of his way every chance he opens his mouth and talks about Luther Burden that he's dropping like an absolute bar. It's not just
39:11like, oh, Luther Burton's doing well. He always says something like very cool about Luther Burden. He's buying Luther Burden stock. Luther Burton's like this
39:19football guy and it's like he's just so effusive with his praise on Luther Burton. It just feels like like something could happen. And I think you
39:27make a very like good point that this could be the Aman Ross St. Brown role, but it could also be the Aman Ross St.
39:34Brown roleesque with some Jameson Williams big plays mixed in. So, it's like the the mystery of this offense where Burden year two could be really
39:43really good. Um I am in on Luther Burton as well. I think he's a player you don't want to not have exposure to. I think he
39:50could end up he could end up being a wide receiver one if things all kind of trend his way.
39:54>> The other thing I want to point out with Burton is that he goes in a range of the draft where I love the wide receivers in
39:59that range. Like I mean we already talked about Waddle. I mean there's so you know T-Mac there's so many good wide
40:05receivers that get drafted in that range. And so like that's a great range for like auction drafts you know just go
40:09really really heavy uh with with that group. But when you look at the guys going around him, Lad McConi or you know
40:16the guys I just mentioned, all of them also have red flags. It's not like that range is is without them. And so when
40:22people sit there and they say, "Oh, I'm worried about the floor of burden uh you know, compared to the I mean that's why
40:28he's going where he's going right now."
40:30You know, like there's there's a low floor for all maybe not Garrett Wilson as much just because we've seen you know
40:35a floor, but I think the ceiling outcome is different for a guy like like Wilson versus Burton. So, I think that you have
40:40to give that context as well, you know, when you're thinking about whether you should draft Burden or not.
40:45>> Yeah, very, very interesting player.
40:47Let's talk about another wide receiver, and I've made a bull case for him. I had Jacob Gibbs on. We dropped some hot
40:53takes, and I said that I think Zay Flowers sets the Baltimore Ravens record for the most receptions in a season in
40:59franchise history. And then I asked you for your your flag plant must draft guys and you drop Z Flowers. He's moved up in
41:07ADP though, JJ. Like that's the one thing with with Zay. There's a lot of smart people, but the market on him, but
41:14a lot but the market has also steamed him up. He's going as like the wide receiver 14. Do you think this is a
41:20price that makes sense? And what's your bullcase here for Flowers having an awesome season?
41:25>> Yeah, I mean, I do think it makes sense.
41:27Um, you know, it's a lot easier to draft him when he was like wide receiver 19.
41:30Um, but but yeah, like like in the end, uh, I'm leaning in on on what we know is predictive and and what we know works.
41:38So, you know, last year I wasn't actually that high on on Z. And I I I still don't know if that was like a W or
41:44an L because most of the season he wasn't super usable, but then like he had some of these big weeks, whatever.
41:49Um, and I know that his end of season numbers look great because that final week and such, but the the reason I'm
41:54more into him this year is last year he showed off by far his best per route run efficiency. And that was largely in a
42:00season that that didn't have Lamar Jackson all year, right? So that's that's one reason. It was also in a in a
42:06in an offense that had fewer than 25 pass attempts per game. There's been 11 teams below the 27 mark since 2011. Each
42:13one of them threw more the following season. I think we're going to see more pass attempts for this Ravens offense year-over-year. You also have a new
42:19offensive coordinator that could lean into that as well who's also already praising Zay Flowers for what it's worth. Um, and then, you know, you look
42:26at, uh, you know, he was targeted on on over 24% of his routes over the last two years. Uh, there's so many per routeout
42:33run numbers that are just incredibly favorable for Flowers. Just that he's been stuck in this situation where two things are happening. Pass rate has been
42:40lower. Like I said, I think that's going to be a little bit higher this year. But then the other part is the the
42:44touchdowns, right? It's it's the end zone stuff. One of the things that I think is really intriguing about this though is that our you know our friend
42:50Matt Harmon does all the charting with reception perception and every single year Z Flowers has gotten better against press and he saw a similar thing happen
42:59with like an Alman Ross St. Brown and that's when they started to deploy him a little bit more in the red zone because
43:05they knew that he could win those matchups and and and and be a weapon, you know, in the end zone. So, I think
43:11there's a chance that we see a little bit of an uptick there. Uh, and then I look at market score and I look at his
43:15comps and Theo, one of his top comps is 2025 Jackson Smith and Jigba. So, that was that was one of the the market score
43:22things where I look at and I'm like, "All right, all right. I I'll I'll be I'll be way more in than I was before
43:28looking at uh some of these market score comps."
43:31>> Yeah. I mean, JJ's just took your Z Flowers could be this year's version of Chris Ave and he shoved it into a locker
43:37right there. That was pretty strong stuff. We've seen we've seen the target share go up every single year too where last year he was like 29% 30% target
43:47share guy. Uh so if this really comes into fruition then he could end up having truly elite metrics just like Jackson Smith and Jigba. This was uh
43:57absolutely unbelievable stuff today. JJ, um really excited for your guys. Let everybody know once again where they could get it and what you have coming
44:05out.
44:06>> Yeah, man. Over on late.com. Like I said, I'm updating it every week and uh you know, we're doing the the podcast
44:11thing. We just got a lot of shows all the time. I feel like I'm I'm never not behind the mic, but I love it. I'm sure
44:16you do, too. Uh but you can find everything over on late round.com.
44:20>> Yeah, check out the best ball stuff that JJ's putting out as well. Really, really great stuff. Uh and check out my
44:25rankings over at Rotoire. I'm doing a big PPR rankings update. And the beginning of August, we're going to have a big dynasty rankings roll out as well.
44:33Uh and stick with us here at Rotoire.
44:35We're gonna help you crush your fantasy leagues this

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