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STOP Drafting Fantasy Football Teams Until You Watch This

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 5 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Aug 15, 2026

Published

Sat, August 15, 2026

37

Player insights

37

Players mentioned

Topics

Alec PierceAshton DulinBlake WhiteheartBrian Thomas Jr.Carnell TateChris OlaveChristian WatsonCraig ReynoldsDavid NjokuDenzel BostonDeSean JacksonDontayvion WicksGeorge PickensHarold Fannin

Player analysis

Player insights

37

Alec Pierce

NegativeProjection5:22

Alec Pierce's fantasy value is limited by his reliance on deep, volatile plays; despite a 1,000-yard season, he had only 49 catches and an ADoT over 20, lacking the volume for consistent production. Furthermore, he is currently dealing with an ankle injury with an uncertain return timeline, and the overall outlook for his availability is poor.

Ashton Dulin

NegativeDepth Chart19:36

Ashton Dulin is viewed as a depth option for the Colts to run vertical routes, but he is not considered a consistent fantasy threat.

Blake Whiteheart

NegativeDepth Chart37:03

Blake Whiteheart is currently listed as the number two tight end on the Browns' depth chart behind Harold Fannin Jr.

Brian Thomas Jr.

PositiveProjection24:00

The speaker is hesitant to draft Brian Thomas Jr. because his rookie breakout was largely tied to Mac Jones, and the current fit with Trevor Lawrence has not been strong.

Carnell Tate

NegativeValue8:26

Carnell Tate is a rookie wide receiver typically drafted in the sixth round. While highly regarded for dynasty, his redraft value is tempered by a high A-dot and reliance on vertical air yards rather than after-the-catch production, fitting a 'sacrificial X' archetype. He is currently less preferred than Jordan Tyson as a value play.

Chris Olave

NegativeRole21:56

Chris Olave is acknowledged as the primary target threat in the Saints offense. While this creates some skepticism regarding the target ceiling for teammates like Jordan Tyson, the speaker argues that modern NFL offenses are capable of supporting multiple high-volume target earners.

Christian Watson

NegativeProjection5:22

Ben Gretch expresses skepticism regarding Christian Watson's draft cost, noting that his fantasy value relies on a 'role evolution' that is not guaranteed. While there is market confidence that Watson will be the top wide receiver scorer in Green Bay, Gretch disagrees, citing his history of injury issues and the potential for a more interchangeable, committee-based approach among the team's receivers. His efficiency is volatile year-over-year and may decline if he takes on more intermediate volume.

Craig Reynolds

NegativeUsage10:18

Craig Reynolds is cited as a historical reference for Lions running back depth, having previously received garbage-time work, though the team moved away from this usage pattern last season to focus on their primary backs.

David Njoku

NegativeDepth Chart60:21

David Njoku is no longer on the Browns' roster, which clears the path for Harold Fannin Jr. to dominate tight end snaps and routes.

Denzel Boston

PositiveValue38:44

Denzel Boston is identified as a wide receiver prospect to target at his current draft cost.

DeSean Jackson

NegativeRole10:04

DeSean Jackson is used as the historical benchmark for the 'sacrificial X' receiver archetype, a player who provides immense value to an NFL offense by clearing out safeties but often lacks the consistent target volume required for elite fantasy production.

Dontayvion Wicks

PositiveValue27:08

Ben Gretch identifies Dontayvion Wicks as a preferred, cheaper target in the Green Bay wide receiver room. Gretch notes that Wicks' rookie season was not 'disqualifyingly bad' given the Packers' developmental philosophy and that the team has 'cleared the decks' for him this offseason.

George Pickens

PositiveValue33:59

George Pickens is highlighted as a successful fifth-round draft pick from the 2025 season that helped fantasy managers secure league wins.

Harold Fannin

PositiveValue37:09

Harold Fannin Jr. is significantly undervalued, with ADP ranging from the 5th/6th round in FFPC tight end premium formats to the 7th/8th turn in NFFC and lower on other platforms. Despite a poor offensive environment, Fannin's rookie season was elite, leading his team in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns as a 21-year-old with the highest targets per route run among all tight ends. With David Njoku gone, Fannin is expected to play nearly every snap and maintain one of the highest route rates among all tight ends in Todd Monken's pass-forward offense.

Ja'Marr Chase

NegativeProjection10:48

Ja'Marr Chase is used as a historical reference for rookie wide receiver development, noting that even elite hits often see a significant jump in target volume during their sophomore seasons.

Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveProjection4:57

Ben Gretch projects Jahmyr Gibbs to have a 'monster year' in 2026, identifying him as a clear 1.01 candidate. Following the departure of David Montgomery, the Lions are moving from a five-man to a four-man core, and Dan Campbell has explicitly stated that Gibbs will be the team's 'bell cow' running back, which is expected to increase efficiency and explosive play potential for the entire offense.

James Cook

PositiveValue33:59

James Cook is noted as a successful fifth-round draft pick from the 2025 season that contributed to winning fantasy rosters.

Jameson Williams

PositiveBreakout0:16

Jameson Williams is a smash at his sixth-round ADP, entering his prime with a more stable target volume and a concentrated offensive role. Ben Gretch notes his profile is underrated due to early-career volatility; he ran the fifth-most routes among NFL wide receivers last year and showed improved consistency with seven-plus targets in most of his final six games. His high yards-per-target efficiency is sustainable as he contributes vertically and through yards-after-catch, with a lower ADoT than pure deep threats. Coaching staff, including Dan Campbell and Drew Petzing, have praised his physical development, and there is a specific plan to increase his red-zone involvement after he saw only nine red-zone targets and one touchdown last season.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

PositiveValue33:59

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is cited as an example of a successful mid-round draft pick from the 2025 season whose performance in the third round contributed to winning fantasy leagues.

Jayden Reed

PositiveBreakout27:08

Jayden Reed is a potential breakout candidate who may finally see increased usage in two-wide receiver sets. With Green Bay's receiver depth more concentrated, there is a strong case for him to finish as a WR20 despite a lower ADP, with eighth to ninth-round value comparable to Josh Downs. His skill set allows for interchangeability, potentially allowing him to run deep routes while others work underneath.

Jerry Jeudy

NegativeDepth Chart38:52

Multiple beat reporters indicate that the rookie wide receivers are currently ahead of Jerry Jeudy on the depth chart.

Jordan Addison

PositiveValue8:26

Jordan Addison is a rising value target with phenomenal drumbeats coming out of camp. He is preferred over Carnell Tate due to a superior college production profile and is expected to be a focal point in his offense, with the seventh-round value window closing rapidly.

Jordyn Tyson

PositiveUsage20:50

Jordan Tyson is a consistent volume earner who demonstrated a high targets-per-route-run rate in college. He is expected to step into a solid target share in an up-tempo Saints offense that projects to throw frequently. While Chris Olave remains the primary target threat, modern NFL offenses can support multiple target earners, making Tyson a preferred value play over Carnell Tate in the seventh round.

Josh Downs

PositiveBreakout16:59

Josh Downs is a high-value mid-round target expected to see a massive increase in volume for the Colts. With minimal competition and projected usage in 11 and 12 personnel, he is positioned to absorb targets vacated by Michael Pittman Jr., potentially leading to a monster season.

Justin Jefferson

NegativeProjection10:48

Justin Jefferson is used as a historical reference for rookie wide receiver development, noting that even elite hits often see a significant jump in target volume during their sophomore seasons.

Kyle Pitts

NegativeValue39:28

Kyle Pitts is currently overvalued in drafts; his production last year was driven by high-volume check-downs rather than the deep-threat, Calvin Johnson-style role originally envisioned for him. His late-season production was largely tied to Drake London's injury and Kirk Cousins' quarterback play, functioning more as an underneath check-down option similar to Jake Ferguson.

Luke Musgrave

NegativeInjury30:23

Luke Musgrave is currently dealing with an injury, which increases the reliance on other tight ends like Tucker Kraft and highlights the overall fragility of the position group.

Matthew Golden

PositiveValue27:55

Matthew Golden is viewed as a potential breakout bet who could earn significant intermediate volume and play at the X receiver position. Despite some market skepticism following his rookie season, he offers contingent upside and represents a solid value pick around round 10.

Michael Pittman

NegativeUsage35:45

Michael Pittman Jr.'s departure or reduced role is cited as the primary reason for the expected increase in target volume for Josh Downs.

Parker Washington

PositiveBreakout23:37

Parker Washington showed elite efficiency late last season, posting the third-best yards per route run behind Puka Nacua and Jackson Smith-Njigba following the Zay Jones trade. While his role remains uncertain due to potential rotation and speculative reports about Travis Etienne playing outside, Washington is considered a palatable value at his current draft price.

Sam LaPorta

NegativeInjury2:13

Sam LaPorta is ranked as the TE6, but there are concerns regarding his health as he is coming off a herniated disc injury. There is apprehension about his potential re-injury rate, though he is expected to coexist with Jameson Williams in the Lions' offense.

Savion Williams

NegativeRole30:02

Samion Williams is projected to be the fourth wide receiver for Green Bay. While there is some positive camp buzz, he is expected to have a limited role with capped target upside.

Travis Etienne

NegativeRole25:25

There is significant uncertainty regarding the Jaguars' offensive roles, specifically regarding reports that Travis Etienne will play outside, which the speaker views as speculative and unreliable.

Tucker Kraft

NegativeInjury30:17

Tucker Kraft carries injury concerns that, if re-aggravated, would leave the team without a viable pass-catching tight end given the current health status of the position group.

Tyler Warren

PositiveRole18:10

Tyler Warren is identified as a key player in the Colts' offense capable of absorbing targets left behind by Michael Pittman Jr. He is also used as a benchmark for elite tight end market value alongside players like Loveland.

Wan'Dale Robinson

PositiveUsage10:17

Wan'Dale Robinson is highlighted as a high-volume earner in the shorter areas of the field, having secured 140 targets in each of the last two years. He remains undervalued by the fantasy community, partly due to an irrational bias against shorter players.

Zay Jones

PositiveUsage16:13

Zay Jones demonstrated significant efficiency down the stretch last year, recording the third-best yards per route run following the trade involving him and Meyers.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

644

0:00Which mid-round values do you need to make part of your draft strategy in 2026? Theo Gremminger, lead fantasy analyst here at RotoWire, joined today

0:08by Ben Gretch. We're going to be breaking down some players that you need to identify before you go into your drafts that can help win leagues. And

0:16let's talk about a player we're both very much into. Going in the sixth round in a lot of formats, it feels like there

0:23was a lot more buzz with Jameson Williams at this time last year than today.

0:29What do you value with Jameson Williams?

0:31Is it the spike weeks? Is it the quality of the offense? Is it a mix of both? And do you think we could see his best

0:37season as a pro in 2026?

0:40>> I think it's more the I'm already throwing out branding here, but I have a new podcast called called the long view. It's more of a long view.

0:49I mean, fifth round fifth year breakouts are rare. But, Jameson Williams has had kind of a rocky first four years. His third

0:57season, he had 470-ish routes, and it was his first time over 250 cuz the first couple years he had the you know,

1:04he's coming off the ACL tear out of college, and he has the betting thing, and um the vibes on him were so bad early in

1:10his career, right? It seemed like he was going to be a clear bust. Like, that was the whole discussion on him early. On

1:16the field, he can't get on the field.

1:17He's having issues off the field, but then when he started playing, he was having other issues. He finally gets up to a pretty full-time role in 2024, but

1:23even still only about 470-ish routes.

1:27Last year, he's over 600 routes. He was a fifth He ran the fifth most routes among any wide receiver in the NFL per

1:33per PFF. Um And his targets per route came came back down a little bit, and I think people are People are I think a little bit too

1:42fixated on the Sam LaPorta splits. He wasn't as good in the first half of the year. LaPorta gets hurt. He really

1:47breaks out in the second half. I mean, when I say really breaks out, he was at pacing for over 1,400 yards in the

1:52second half of the year post bye after the LaPorta injury, which is like the final 10 games or whatever it was. It

1:58was a pretty sizable sample. Now, yes, LaPorta was out, but I also think they were kind of inevitably heading for more

2:05Jameson Williams in the second half regardless. He was kind of getting forgotten about. You look back at 2024 when LaPorta was in, there were there

2:12was a little more balance there. I think people have looked at the two years and and tried to make this narrative that

2:17LaPorta has crushed Jameson that I don't I don't buy. But, I also think this offense is going to be hyper-fixated.

2:23This is a team that had a bunch of guys that they drafted really well from 2021 to 2023, that they've had to give

2:29extensions to. They had to let David Montgomery go. They had to let even guys like Kalif Raymond go. And all of the

2:33guys that they brought in this offseason for depth, veteran depth, are on really cheap one-year deals. All of like Isaiah Pacheco, Tyler Conklin,

2:41Greg Dortch, they brought on like Cedric Wilson, they're all on one-year deals under $2 million.

2:46It's all a reflection of all of these second contracts hitting at the key spots.

2:52Well, what's going to happen? All those guys are in their prime. They're going to have to really lean on those guys.

2:57It's going to be very concentrated, I think, this year between Gibbs, who I think is going to have a monster year

3:01and is a clear 101, Amon-Ra, LaPorta, and then Jameson Williams. And Williams is really the one I would fixate on because you have only

3:09like sort of a smaller sample of him in a in a really huge role. But, I think he's going to run 600 routes again or push

3:16for it if he's healthy, right? And then I do think you you have the really strong efficiency after the target. He's had great yards

3:22per target stuff. It's both, you know, vertical, he gets the the deep stuff, but his ADoT's like super high like an

3:27Alec Pierce or a Christian Watson. It's actually come way down the last 2 years when he's been better. They do a lot of

3:32horizontal stuff with him using his speed laterally. And his ball in hand is really, really strong. His catch and run is YAC per reception very strong. So,

3:40there's a lot of reasons why I think his really astronomical yards per target may actually stick cuz he does it both

3:45before and after the catch point. The ADoT is lower than pure deep threats.

3:48And he's got yeah, you know, the the board and after includes the ball in hand stuff. There's a lot of stuff I

3:53really like about the package. Then you add all the routes from last year. It wasn't a perfect season. The second half, the most recent stuff, it was

4:00very, very strong. We finally saw a consistent target volume. You look at the last like six games of his uh season last year. He was seven plus

4:08targets in in in most of them.

4:10Typically hasn't been a lot of eight, nine, 10 target games from him throughout his career. That's been sort of the point that it's boom bust. There

4:16was more stability down the stretch late last year. There's a lot of stuff about his profile that I think is going under

4:21the radar because he's been volatile through four years where it could all come together. Feels like this is the year where this is the the career season

4:28for him in a very concentrated offense as I was talking about. Uh I think he's a smash at ADP.

4:33>> You know what? I've been really interested about he obviously gives you all of those big play potential like we've seen in multiple years. The target

4:41volume's gone up. I love the fact that when Dan Campbell took over over the second half of the year, it was just

4:46like like ascension for Jameson Williams. But we heard Drew Petzing talk about challenging Jameson Williams to be more physical and then praising him

4:55about it. And we've heard Dan Campbell sort of like just praising him continually in camp. And one little little thing that I I I've read is Drew

5:03Petzing wants to get him more involved in the red zone. Last year he only had one touchdown in the red zone. He only

5:09had nine targets in the red zone. So they've got a plan to use him there. Uh I think it was three total receptions in

5:16the red zone in 2025.

5:19And it was one single touchdown. I think it was that Washington game. So if we see the a concentrated effort to get him

5:25involved in in that regard, it just adds another wrinkle to the upside scenario.

5:29And I love that you brought up sort of the fifth-year breakout because for Jameson was like a complete zero those first two years. I'm completely with

5:37you. And it's also an offense that Are you sort of on the same path here, Ben, with me that I think the loss of

5:45David Montgomery we're going to see way more explosive plays for Detroit in general.

5:51They're going to be very efficient running the ball obviously with Jahmyr Gibbs, but now Pacheco's banged up.

5:56There's not like that second running back that can sort of bog things down.

6:00It feels like explosive wheels up for a number of Lions.

6:04>> Yeah, I think the Montgomery thing is is key. Like they've kind of had five Lions. They've always tried to keep him

6:10happy and like involved. Last year, really random stat I found in my projections was last year their number three running back had almost no volume.

6:18The year prior Craig Reynolds had whatever it was, 30 carries or something. It's not a huge amount, but they would give Craig Reynolds garbage

6:24time work a couple of years ago. Last year, because they were leaning more into Gibbs and Montgomery wasn't really thrilled about it was sort of if you're

6:32reading the tea leaves, they would start started to give all the garbage time work to Montgomery to like appease him, to get him like more work even though

6:40like it didn't make any sense. You wouldn't necessarily want to put him at risk in those situations, but they did it a lot more. They were

6:45hyper-concentrated on just Gibbs and Montgomery in terms of total touches last year relative to the prior seasons.

6:51And it was this reflection of kind of what you were talking about where like they always made sure to get work for

6:55Montgomery.

6:57Campbell had a quote earlier this off season about Gibbs where he was like he's our he's going to be our bell cow

7:01now. Like it's you know, pretty clear that they're not seeing Isiah Pacheco in the same way as Montgomery like to your point. And so

7:07yes, that that is a massive for Jahmyr Gibbs, but it's also massive for the whole offense that like you were saying

7:13it kind of bogs things down. You're going from a five-man core down to a four-man core. I think because of that,

7:18that's sort of the kind of unspoken thing I was talking about when people really emphasize the LaPorta-Jameson splits. I think there are more paths for

7:24both LaPorta and Jameson to coexist as well going forward. Um but yeah, the Jameson stuff to me is the clearest one.

7:31LaPorta, I mean, he's interesting too, but coming off a herniated disc, I have a little bit of concern about you know,

7:37the re-injury and some of those things.

7:39People treat Jameson like he's hyper volatile and I I mean I I think you're missing that there's been more stability. This has been a quiet

7:46off-season. It was a quiet year last year. He got out there and ran the fifth most routes in the NFL at wide receiver last

7:52year. That would have been unheard of, you know, 2-3 years ago, early in his career, when we're like, "Man, is this

7:56guy ever going to play?" That second season his biggest snap share was in their playoff loss to the Niners. He was

8:02kind of working up still throughout the year. He had a couple touchdowns in that game. And then the third season, it's

8:08like, "Yeah, he's actually involved more than he would get praise for run blocking." It's like we're finally seeing him do all the little things a

8:14little bit. Last year it was all there.

8:16This off-season, it's been nothing but positive. I mean, he's locked in. He is in the middle of his prime now.

8:21People, I think, are missing the forest for the trees with him a little bit.

8:24>> Yeah, we're both in on Jameson Williams.

8:26Curious your thoughts on the two rookie wide receivers, Jordan Addison and Carnell Tate. Tate usually goes inside of the sixth round, and for a while we

8:36were getting seventh round Jordan Addison. It feels like that is about to end. The Addison drumbeats are just phenomenal right now out of New Orleans,

8:44but both of these players have elite draft capital. They're both very talented, and they're on offenses where they seem like they're going to be focal

8:53points. Are you open-minded to drafting both of them, or is there one that stands out to you when when looking at the two of them

9:01sort of collectively?

9:03>> I'm more into Addison. I like the production profile in college a little bit better. The Tate draft capital is obviously fantastic. When I was talking

9:11about Jameson, I I referenced that point of both before and after the catch point. Both of these guys have some concerns with the ball-in-hand stuff

9:18that came up around, you know, draft season, dynasty stuff. Um for Tate, especially, he's got a really high A-dot, and you're talking about a most

9:26of his production being vertical air yards type production. There's not a lot after the catch point with him. Now, he looks awesome in camp. He's making

9:34one-handed catches. He's high-pointing balls. That's his skill set. He's very, very good at that. I think that's why they took him so high. It's the same

9:41reason that the the Packers paid uh Christian Watson and the Colts paid Alec Pierce is this vertical explosive skill set is really important to the modern

9:49NFL meta where defenses are trying to take away explosives. It doesn't necessarily make them the most valuable players for fantasy because those

9:58explosive plays vertically, a lot of it is you know, we we've talked about them being like sacrifice like Matt Harmon has that term sacrificial X and um

10:05there's that idea of like this player's better for the NFL team than the fantasy team. That goes back to like DeSean

10:10Jackson I remember always hearing that about, right? This guy runs off safeties and then there's targets that go underneath. This is a volume game that

10:17we play. For me with Tate, there's a lot of room for him to get a lot of volume underneath, but Wan'Dale Robinson has

10:21140 targets both of the last 2 years and people just act like that's chopped liver cuz he's short. I mean, I guess,

10:27you know, Kyler Murray's short too and everyone acts like Kyler Murray's chopped liver. Like we're just we we are really height uh

10:33anti-height right now as a fantasy football community. Um but anyway, Wan'Dale Robinson I think is a guy who's going to earn a lot of volume in the

10:39shorter areas of the field. Cornell, it's tough for rookie receivers to step in and be monster volume guys. Even the big hits, I've talked about this before.

10:48You go back to like Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, both those guys had two targets per game more as sophomores than

10:55their rookie seasons and their rookie seasons were were huge hits, both of those guys. The point is it's really tough to step right into huge, huge

11:03volume and especially when your collegiate profile is sort of specific.

11:09It's, you know, you were a vertical threat, you weren't necessarily a producer all over the field. And so, um that's a an element that concerns me uh

11:19for Tate as well. But Tysons Tysons profile a lot more a lot more um interesting at at all the different depths.

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12:48leagues.

12:50I have fewer concerns about that with Tyson. He's a guy who earned a higher rate of volume, a higher like targets per out run throughout college,

12:58very consistent volume earner. Um he he does have a little bit of a higher adot, but he was able to do it at different

13:04depths. It seems like And then, you just have a better offense, I think, too. The Saints are going to be more up-tempo,

13:08like they're going to throw quite a bit.

13:10It seems like he's going to be able to step into, I think, a pretty solid target share. I think the concern with

13:16him for people is, "Look, you have Chris Olave there, and Tate doesn't have that threat." I just don't know that it's

13:21that simple in in the modern NFL. And I do think that um Tyson's in line to to see a lot of

13:28targets.

13:28>> Yeah, I think for me it's I I've I've been very effusive with my praise for Carnell Tate all off-season long. I I

13:36love him in Dynasty and I really still am am open-minded him in redraft, but he's sort of going alongside Jameson Williams, going alongside Parker

13:46Washington, sort of like we talked about, where Jordan Tyson's going next to guys like Marvin Harrison Jr., like Brian Thomas Jr. And for me it's just

13:56easier to sort of make a make a an argument to taking Tyson in that range.

14:00So, opportunity cost is is definitely in Tyson's favor. I think I'm a little more open-minded than you are to drafting Carnell Tate still, but yeah, seventh

14:09round Tyson versus sixth round Tate, it's easily uh going in that seventh round direction. But, let's talk about Parker Washington, cuz I think it's a

14:17it's almost like a law that I can't go two days on this on this show without having a guest that wants to say nice

14:22things about Parker Washington. I just had Scott Barrett on. That's one of his guys all off-season long. You're also very open-minded to drafting Parker

14:31Washington sort of in this sixth round range.

14:35>> Yeah, I mean I think the the drumbeat has been really positive. It's a an offense that from the early off-season I

14:40wanted to try to figure out. I thought there was a lot of ways it could go. I don't necessarily love playing into

14:45Brian Thomas just because the vast majority of his breakout his rookie year came with with Mac Jones and the fit with the Trevor Lawrence has not

14:52been strong. Lawrence has had a lot of guys that looked like Parker Washington that have been productive over his years. He's kind of like the slot

15:00receiver, you know, Kirk had a good year, but he even like a stretch with Jamal Agnew and some of those things.

15:04So, it wasn't particularly surprising when Parker Washington broke out, but after the Jakobi Meyers trade from week 10 on, he had the third best through the

15:12post-season. He had the third best yards per out run football behind Puka Nacua and Jackson Smith-Njigba. He didn't run a massive number of routes and that's

15:19part of the concern is they may still be rotation rotational. There's a lot of discussion. I think there's way too much

15:25certainty about role right now. There's a lot of discussion about how he's going to play in the slot and Travis Etienne

15:28is going to play outside and people are like saying very definitively what Parker Washington's role is going to be and I think you just absolutely can't

15:35know that. I don't even think the Jaguars know that. You look at what they were going into last season with and

15:40where they wound up towards the end of the season. They were going into the season thinking Brian Thomas, Travis Etienne Hunter was going to play a ton

15:45on offense. These two first round picks are going to be their main receivers. By the end of the year they've traded for

15:49Zay Jones Myers. They're using Parker Washington a ton. It looks completely different. 17-game seasons are a little bit chaos.

15:57Um but yeah, I mean I'm into the player.

15:58I'm into the profile. There's a lot of, you know, intriguing advanced stats and things like that. He's not particularly expensive, frankly. I mean he is a at a

16:06palatable price even though he's rising.

16:08If he is like the key player, again, if he's able to do uh anything close to what he was able to

16:13do down the stretch last year where he had that third best yards per route run from from the Zay Jones Myers trade on.

16:17I mean that's a massive number. It's just tricky. It's tricky when you're looking at a guy who doesn't have necessarily I mean there's people will

16:24talk about his prospect profiles being better than he gets credit for, but he doesn't have a massive, you know, prospect profile behind him. He didn't

16:31have massive production prior to last year. He had some some spurts of interesting production prior to 2025, but um it's a it's a tricky bet relative

16:41to some of the like longer view profile-based things that I like to usually focus on.

16:47>> Parker Washington, if you want to hear my thoughts on him, you can tune back to about 15 shows in the last 25 days. Um

16:53so I won't even share anything there, but I will follow up that you're also very high on Josh Downs who sort of

17:00offers a little bit of Parker Washington-esque value, but multiple rounds later. Alec Pierce, uh the vibes could not be worse in terms of the

17:09injury and not knowing when he's going to come back to the field and there's really a lack of wide receiver target

17:15competition for Josh Downs. We've also had a number of coaches pointing out that he could be on the field at all

17:21times. Multiple beat reporters also pointing out that he should be on the field in 12 personnel, let alone 11 personnel. Downs is an interesting one.

17:31He feels like a player who could take on a very high number of targets in on this Indianapolis team.

17:38>> Yeah, I I mean, I think early in the off season people were overvaluing the contract with Alec Pierce. I talked

17:42about it when I talked about Tate, but I think some of these vertical threats are getting more investment from teams both in the way of

17:50contract and then in in the way of for Tate, I was saying it in the way of obviously draft capital. Um because of

17:57their role to a scheme. I think if you are the Colts, it makes perfect sense when you have to make a decision between

18:03Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce to let Pittman go and to keep Pierce because Pierce is doing something that you can't replace. But with Pittman out of the

18:10picture, you have Tyler Warren, you have Josh Downs, you have guys that can replace his 8.5 ADoT or whatever it was

18:16last year, below average for a wide receiver. Alec Pierce's ADoT last year was over 20. I mean, we're talking about a massive, massive figure. There There

18:24were only I was I was doing my research on Pierce in the off season, there were only a couple guys that have had

18:28thousand-yard seasons with ADoTs over like 17 in the last however many 20 years.

18:34I think one of the most recent ones was a DeSean Jackson season or something like that. But you are I think one was a

18:39Sammy Watkins season. And Pierce did have a thousand yards last year. He only had 49 catches. I don't think people realize it.

18:45>> Like it was a lot of bombs, it was a lot of great plays, a lot of contested catches, great stuff like that. But the

18:49same reason with prospects we worry about contested catch rate is like you're too reliant on highly volatile, highly volatile deep deep plays. Deep

18:57efficiency is a challenging thing, and even if it's there for a guy like Pierce in a season like he had last year,

19:02again, you're talking about like 50 catches. We want volume in fantasy. He had just over a thousand yards. He didn't have some 1,500 yard season.

19:09Point being, I think a lot of people Now, now has the ankle issue and everything else, but people people early on were thinking Pierce's A dots going

19:15to come down. He's going to replace some of that Michael Pittman work. Never really made a lot of sense to me because

19:20then who's running the vertical routes?

19:21That's what you're paying out Pierce for. Like you still need somebody to run those vertical routes to make schemes work. It doesn't really like Pierce is

19:28running intermediate routes because that's what you want. Fantasy doesn't add up. Like Josh Downs is not running 20 yards downfield with regularity.

19:34They'll do different things.

19:36You can run Ashton Dulin, I guess, but I I just don't think that's going to be a a consistent threat on safeties and

19:42things like that. So, anyway, Pierce will probably get some opportunities like that when he is healthy, but the thing I've liked about Downs is how his

19:48production maps more directly to what Pittman left, right? And that's what I really like about Tyler Warren as well.

19:53Those are guys that I'm a big fan of.

19:55These are tricky decisions. I mean, it's funny. You You have me on here where we're talking this round 6 to 10 range.

20:02All of these situations we're talking about, the Jags, you know, all the different situations.

20:06We're trying to parse like different teammates. The reason the ADPs are in this range is it is a a massive of

20:13challenging things to figure out. This is where leagues are going to be won or lost last year. I think if you look back

20:17to 2025, one of the things that people are missing right now in 2026 from like a draft strategy perspective is a lot of

20:23the picks in this range were misses. I mean, I look back on some of the leagues that I actually had wins. And I've

20:29talked about like contingency based drafting and drafting with for a lot of redundancy for a lot of years. You look back at teams that won last year. A lot

20:35of them had like they had really good first and second round picks cuz a lot of the early picks actually hit. They

20:39had like one other hit. If you hit on JSN in the third round or George Pickens in the fifth or James Cook in the fifth,

20:45that was it, man. You paired that with a first and second round pick, you probably won your league. We I I do a 5K

20:50with Leone and Pat and Pete every year.

20:52We won our 5K with Christian McCaffrey Puka Nacua start where we basically I think we had Tiderwell McMillan in like the third round who was like solid.

21:00Basically missed on every pick from round four to like round 12. And won a 5K league. We hit on like Kenneth

21:05Gainwell and I we picked up Christian Watson off the waiver wire somebody cut him when he was hurt. I think we picked

21:09up Alec Pierce. We we navigated the wire well, but that's what 2025 seasons were like because in a 20 in a 17 game

21:16season, there's a lot of variability throughout a season. There was a lot of injury stuff going on. There's a lot of

21:21different schematic things happening.

21:23We've talked about the different tight ends and stuff all throughout this off season fantasy people have talked about it constantly. When you're going into

21:28drafts, I think you need to realize that you're going to have a lot of misses in these ranges. You're looking for the

21:33guys who can be the the real difference maker, the league winners, the real extreme hits. So, anyway, guy like Downs to me could be that. If he gets the

21:41extra route volume in a two wide receiver set, he really racks up the volume that's vacated from the Michael Pittman thing. Those targets got to go

21:47somewhere.

21:48Um I think Downs got to have a really monster year. He's also one of the guys that I think is really mispriced in this

21:53range. There's a lot of dudes where to me it's harder to see the the really dynamic ceiling.

21:59And I think there's going to be again, a lot of misses probably. That's just the way that we're heading. You know, like

22:05it's not fun, but that's the that's how the NFL like operates offensively now.

22:09It's like there's going to be a lot of uh lack of concentration and and different things that happen throughout seasons that are going to actually take

22:16points off the board. I think thinking through redundancies and and contingency planning when you're drafting and those things really important in this round

22:24six to round 10 range. Uh so anyway, just a a little tangent, but I think it's it's a key when we talk about these

22:30kinds of players, which ones are are worth targeting.

22:33>> Yeah, and I think you you sort of nailed it from a macro sense is when you go through the mid rounds, you can have a

22:40smaller group of targeted players as long as you sort of understand ADP, but I think it's very important to understand upside, understand attacking

22:48that upside swings. You're not necessarily looking for singles here.

22:52You're looking for guys that can make an impact and sort of really crush their ADP. Getting a guy who's wide receiver

22:5840 and he finishes as the wide receiver 36, that doesn't help you, but if you're able to get a the wide receiver 40 and

23:05he's wide receiver 20, that's how you win a league like an edge like that. And I think it's also just avoiding

23:10landmines. Going through and saying, what's the chance that this guy is higher drafted next year? I think that's always a a fun little mental exercise.

23:19And that sort of rules out a number of guys. And if it's an older player, just how locked in are they? So, really good

23:24stuff from you. You mentioned the long view with you and Jacob Sanderson.

23:28Jacob's been on this show. Let everybody know sort of where they can find that show and what you guys are doing.

23:33>> Yeah, the long view with all the different podcast uh locations and and over on YouTube. We're just uh getting going. We've only done three

23:40or four episodes now and and kind of covering some stuff. I still have Stealing Bananas rolling. Um we'll be doing some more episodes soon. Sean

23:47Siegel have been taking a little bit of time, but um yeah, two podcasts there and then the the newsletter Stealing Signals.

23:53>> Yeah, highly recommend all of Ben's work. It's really good stuff. Stealing Signals, if you want like long-form fantasy football uh written content,

24:01Ben, you go super deep on those. In the in season, really good. You Are you the You're You get never get really credit

24:07for this. Are you You're the You're the dead zone Dead zone was your term originally. You kind of brought dead zone into the common vernacular.

24:15Uh talk a little bit about about that and also green zone. I think that's your term as well.

24:21>> I can't remember. I took green zone from somebody, but and then dead zone, the reason I never like claimed ownership of

24:25it is I I wrote about that when I was at CBS. My editor, Chris Towers, actually came up with the headline, The Catch the

24:32Dead Zone. I wrote about this range of running backs and did a whole big study on it. Um and then and then he titled it

24:40The Running Back Dead Zone. And you know, sort of the rest is history. So, I got to give Chris Towers the the

24:44shout-out. It was my content, yes, that that that I think uh started that that concept or or led to that that sort of

24:51concept. And then that same off-season uh Jack Miller over at ETR was doing a lot of work as well and and and was

24:56using the the the term a lot as well.

24:59Um but yeah, the dead zone stuff I've done a ton of research on over the years.

25:03Um I like to use the the term green zone to to talk about rush attempts from the 10-yard line and in as opposed to the red zone.

25:11Some people use the 5-yard line and in.

25:14Uh there's been a lot of work done on obviously the like scoring potential in those ranges. You have like expected fantasy points and stuff. Back when I

25:21was at Rotoviz years and years ago we had the model for expected points over expected. They still have it over there.

25:29Um but they use a an average of points scored at every yard line. And if you look at that, the potential for

25:37um fantasy points from the like a carry from the 1-yard line is incredibly high and it goes down. It starts to flatten

25:43after the 10-yard line. So a lot of people like the 5-yard line and in, but the 6 7 8 9 is still a higher touchdown

25:50rate, a higher expected point rate than like the 11 12 13. But when you get to the 11 12 13 and beyond, it's pretty

25:56flat like throughout the rest of the field in terms of what your expected points are going to be on a carry in

26:01those things. So I've always used the 10-yard line and in. I call it the green zone. That's where um touchdown production per like touch

26:08per attempt tends to start to flatten.

26:12So that's where you see an elevated rate. Obviously every yard line as you get closer to the goal line it's going

26:16to be higher.

26:17>> Yeah, excellent stuff. It Stealing Signals really really strong reads.

26:21Let's talk about the Green Bay Packers wide receiver room. I've had a lot of people coming on the show including myself making a bold argument for

26:27Christian Watson, but you've also got like a really concentrated wide receiver room in Green Bay this year where I've also drafted a good amount of Matthew

26:35Golden and I also like Jayden Reed. How are you approaching this wide receiver room? Are you looking to draft all of

26:43these guys or you specifically targeting one or two?

26:48>> I'm mostly playing the cheap way through Reed and Matthew Golden. I think they're both really interesting. Golden obviously had the up-and-down rookie

26:55season. I don't think it was disqualifyingly bad if you had reasonable expectations. It's tough that he didn't play a ton, but the Packers

27:01have done that before with some young guys. They think of themselves as draft and developmental as a whole organization. That's been a philosophy

27:07for them for decades. They clearly cleared the decks for him this offseason. It gets back to a similar thing to what I was talking about with

27:14the Colts, which is the vacated targets are all the intermediate routes and Watson does some of that stuff. He does more of

27:20it than Alec Pierce. His A dot's not quite as high as Alec Pierce, but he hasn't done a ton of that stuff. And

27:26Watson for throughout his career has mostly thrived on efficiency. And so I think you're paying with him for a little bit of a role evolution that

27:32isn't necessarily guaranteed to come.

27:34And it's not necessarily guaranteed to come with the same efficiency. Like the he could add some volume and some intermediate ranges, but we could also

27:40lose some efficiency. He was incredibly efficient downfield last year, which is great. But again, the the deep efficiency tends to be a little bit

27:48volatile year over year. Now, the the difference with him when I was making the Pierce point about like who's going to run the deep stuff, like Jayden Reed

27:55does run some deep routes and Matthew Golden is a like a burner and and was run some deep routes last year. So

28:00there's a lot of route concepts where they can use those guys interchangeably, run those guys deep, and then have Watson come underneath. I think that's a

28:06little bit more interchangeable with the the skill sets of the wide receivers in Green Bay than it is in Indy in in my perception.

28:14I could be certainly wrong on any of these takes at any point. That's one of the huge things we have to keep in mind with

28:19fantasy, obviously. But my take with Watson is that Golden is this guy that is more likely to earn a lot of that

28:27um intermediate volume and they've talked about using him at the X. And then with Reed, I mean there there's been some

28:32camp stuff that they're going to use Reed a little bit on the two wide receiver sets eventually. I've had my my fair share of misses with Jayden

28:40Reed where I've been hoping for him to actually play in two wide receiver sets over the last few years.

28:45Now would be the time. Now is the time where they have as much wide receiver depth. It was a lot more

28:51obvious for them with with Dobbs and some other guys and even Wicks that that they may not need to use Reed in those

28:57ways. It's a lot more concentrated now.

28:58They really only have the three receivers. They're really going to lean on those guys. Christian Watson's had his injury issues in the past. Malik

29:04Heath Golden may be a bust, what have you. I think there's a lot of scenarios where they're going to need to lean on

29:09Reed a little bit more. So, I My my thought on this is there's a lot of market confidence that Watson's going to

29:14be the top wide receiver scorer. I don't see that at all. I don't I'm not that confident that he's going to be the top

29:19wide receiver scorer in this offense.

29:21I'd rather play it through the cheaper options cuz I think it's fairly uncertain. I think both Golden and Reed have some materially positive

29:29um you know, forward-looking cases. You can make a a fairly negative backward-looking case on Golden, but the idea that he could replace some of that

29:37intermediate volume, the idea that Reed could be in more two-wide receiver sets, they it makes them both potential breakout bets to to be that sort of wide

29:45receiver 40 who finishes wide receiver 20 as as you were outlining.

29:49>> So, I'm way more bullish on Christian Watson than you are, but I'm very open-minded to drafting the other two wide receivers. I took Golden in a main

29:56event. I think it was a round 10 value for him, which I was really comfortable paying that price tag, where I think

30:02they all have contingent upside because the fourth wide receiver looks like it's probably going to be Samion Williams, who's sort of a

30:10Swiss Army knife type that there's positivity on in camp, but I think he would be a sort of a limited target

30:16upside type guy. You've also got the potential with with Tucker Kraft. If there's any sort of re-aggravation of his injury, now Luke Musgrave is

30:24injured, there really wouldn't be a pass-catching tight end. And I think just collectively as a team after two big disappointing NFL playoff losses in

30:33a row, last year the close one to Chicago, and then two years ago just getting woodshedded by the Eagles, things have got to change a little bit.

30:40And I think there's pressure on LaFleur to take the next step. So, I think being a little bit more pass-happy as a team,

30:45but yeah, Reed Reed's definitely an electric talent. Um he's they they also gave him a contract extension.

30:52I think eighth-round value for him like sort of near a Josh Downs, maybe ninth round in some leagues makes sense. And

30:58then Matthew Golden, you're getting the benefit that there are certain drafters who are completely dismissing him because of how disappointing the rookie

31:05season was, and they didn't necessarily like him as a prospect, but I'm open-minded to all those guys. I think they're really fun.

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33:07Let's pivot over to the tight end position. How underrated is Harold Fannin Jr. right now? Who a player that had really an exceptional rookie season

33:16and now the market is sort of beating up a little bit. He's going in the sixth round, sometimes the fifth round in FFPC

33:23tight end premium, but I'm looking over at like NFFC, uh he's going somewhere at like the 7-8 turn over there and even lower in some

33:32formats like Sleeper, ESPN, and Yahoo.

33:36>> The market in in 2026 loves to double count right now. If Harold Fannin wasn't in a in a bad offense with bad quarterbacks,

33:45he should be right up there with with Loveland and Warren. No question. He was a 21-year-old rookie, led his team in

33:52targets, receiving yards, uh excuse me, targets, receptions, yards, and I believe touchdowns as well. I think he led his team in every major

33:59receiving category.

34:00Uh his targets per route run at uh any like reasonable tight end target uh or excuse me, routes threshold, I believe

34:08were the the highest for any tight end in the league, not among rookies, not among um you know, any other cut up you want.

34:15He earned a massive amount of volume immediately. The off-season buzz is nothing but positive. You hear Todd Monken talk about him. He talks about

34:22him like he's LeBron James. He's like, "This guy's like insane. He's Every time he's got the ball in his hand, he's

34:27insane. He's all these things." And then you go back again, this long view stuff.

34:30You go back to college, that's what the proposition of Harold Fannin was. Was that this guy, when he was in college,

34:36he wasn't just the best uh he didn't just lead uh all tight ends in receptions in his final year in college,

34:43he led all of FBS at all positions in receptions. He was an absolute superstar. And people are like, "Wow, he played at Bowling Green." He played Penn

34:50State and Texas A&M and had monster games against both, and Bowling Green lost by seven and six to these two teams, this Big 10 powerhouse and this

34:58SEC powerhouse, and Bowling Green almost upset both of them. I think both on the road, and Harold Fannin was a centerpiece of the offense in both

35:05games. And like, you're not going to get me with the the Bowling Green um Anyway, regardless, that's that's neither here nor there. He comes in as

35:13an age 21 rookie and has the year he has.

35:16Yeah, I'm concerned about the offense.

35:18We're already pricing that way down.

35:19That's already been priced down. You're not having to pay for a year two breakout a uh the likes of which is, you know,

35:25comparable to to Kolsen Loveland or or Tyler Warren. You're getting a massive discount on that. And you shouldn't have to, because the Browns do have the worst

35:32quarterback situation in the NFL.

35:34There's real concern that this is going to be a bit of a disaster in the passing game. They did last year, too. And he

35:39had 731 yards. He caught 72 balls, yet over 100 targets. And he's going into year two. He can get better. Like that

35:46That's the other element of this. Like, we've gotten way too used to rookie tight end production, as well. That's another big thing I want to emphasize

35:52here. I know they brought in new rookie receivers, by the way, as well. But, Fannin is going to be a massive part of

35:57this pass game. But, uh that point about the rookie tight end production it wasn't just a few years ago that we

36:04talked about it like it was impossible.

36:05And now we have a 21-year-old, an age 21 rookie goes and puts up the season he did last year. And the market's like,

36:11"Eh, whatever. Like, we're out on this guy." or something. I think it's silly.

36:14Todd Monken's offense is going to be way more pass-forward than Kevin Stefanski's was. There's a lot more talk of 11 personnel. There's no other tight ends

36:21on this roster. David Njoku's gone.

36:23Blake Whiteheart heart is their number two. They drafted like a fifth-rounder and a seventh-rounder. These guys don't have great profiles. Fant's going to be

36:29out there every single snap. He's going to run one of the biggest route rates of all tight ends. He's an an elite

36:35pass-catching tight end going into his age 22 second season. And we're already pricing that down, but then people want to keep pushing it further.

36:42It's It's really pretty silly. I'm not like massively in on him cuz I do think there's a little bit of a cap on

36:47ceiling. I like playing the the guys ahead of that. But yeah, I think Fant's massively undervalued.

36:51>> Yeah, and I think you're right. And we we talked about sort of the year of the tight end on multiple shows where

36:57Colston Loveland and I I I love. Brock Bowers I love. Tyler Warren I think is a really fun pick. But when you look at

37:03Fant, you brought up the MAC and all of the elite skill position players that we're we've seen come out of the MAC

37:09over like the last 30 years. Guys like Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman, Antonio Gates. They all took like a while to ramp up. Harold Fant was like the

37:18youngest tight end in the NFL last year doing it. He nuked David Njoku who was an incredibly productive player there.

37:25Uh really just unbelievable quick production. And then the forced missed tackle rate was extremely high. The YAC ability extremely high. So I think

37:35getting the ball in Harold Fant Jr.'s hands quickly will help sort of a limited quarterback room there. And I think also I'm very much into Casey

37:44Concepcion and Denzel Boston at cost.

37:46But it sounds like it's going to be the two rookie wide receivers on the field to start out the year. Maybe in two wide

37:52receiver sets. They're well ahead of Jerry Jeudy according to multiple beat reporters. So like the idea that Harold Fant Jr. is not going to lead the team

37:59in targets again, I think it's a it's it would mean Harold it would mean that Casey Concepcion is an unbelievable fast

38:07starter and the ball goes to him more often. But I I think it's probably the best bet is still still on Harold Fant

38:13Jr. And I think I like a lot of these Cleveland Browns because there's very talented players that are just getting beat up because of the quarterback

38:22position and I think that's a reasonable way to kind of fade people, but very talented players and if they can just

38:29get like the 25th best quarterback production in football, then there's multiple people who can smash here including Quinton Judkins, the wide

38:37receivers and certainly Harold Fannin Jr. How else are you playing the tight end position when you get to the Harold Fannin Jr. tier? Are you open-minded to

38:47guys like LaPorta who you brought up earlier questions with the injury, Tucker Kraft, you talked about the wide receivers, Kyle Pitts. It's sort of a

38:55little mini tier followed up by guys like Kittle, followed up guys by guys like Isaiah Likely, Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, etc. Do any

39:03guys sort of stand out to you in this range?

39:07>> No. No. [laughter] I think it's a really I think it's a really tough tight end range. And so, you know, I I had said that I I still

39:14like taking I don't think Fannin should go with the the big four tight ends and I'm saying he's still massively misvalued. The way that I have it in my

39:20rankings is I have a pretty big tier break after the top four guys and then I have Fannin in his own tier as a tight

39:25end five and I think he should be head and shoulders over the rest of these profiles. LaPorta to me is the tight end

39:29six and is interesting but I'm a little bit concerned about the the back and the re-injury rate and some of that stuff but you could definitely

39:35get me with LaPorta. Pitts' production last year was largely late in the season when London was hurt and Kirk Cousins was the quarterback, famous check-down

39:44artist Kirk Cousins who's torn Achilles in his right leg meant that he couldn't drive the ball down field basically at all. Was checking down and then the the

39:52idea with with Pitts when he came out was this promise of like we have Calvin Johnson here. He's going to have a high

39:57A dot, a tight end who's playing wide receiver. What Pitts' production was last year was a very low A dot relative

40:03to early in his career. He was an underneath guy, he was a check down, he was a Jake Ferguson, check-down guy

40:08underneath late in the down and had a lot of volume and had a lot of catches and maybe that propels him toward, you

40:14know, more of a breakout. Tight end's a weird product position. But for me, Pitts is now being dropped like he's priced way

40:21up. He's being drafted in this range where, you know, I've drafted Pitts a ton of times. I was super into the to

40:26the idea of him, the ceiling of him. But he's drafted way in this range where it's like the breakout finally came. It

40:30did not come in the way that the Kyle Pitts optimism story that we were telling you when he was first drafted suggested he

40:38could, you know, what he could be in the NFL. That's not how it really came.

40:41Tucker Kraft, another guy coming off a major injury. He had over 10 yards after the catch per reception last year. Like

40:46we're talking about that vacated volume in the intermediate range. Kraft's more of a ball-in-hand catch-and-run guy. His ADoT was so low that he doesn't really

40:54strike you as a guy who's going to run a bunch of those 10-yard in-breaking routes and things that that Dobbs is

41:00vacating.

41:01And then the issue for me is like he's a really high-efficiency player that has had some volume concerns in the past.

41:07Coming off an injury, you want the volume to really hit like where his career-high levels are and for his efficiency to still be there. It's a

41:15tough bet at that cost for me.

41:19You continue on to some of those other names you mentioned.

41:21I have issues with the routes volume for guys like Kincaid and potentially Isaiah Likely, although he's getting a bunch of buzz. You got age issues with Kelce,

41:28Kittle. Kittle also coming off an injury. There's a bunch of red flags throughout that range at tight end for me. So to me it's really I like playing

41:36the early stuff. Maybe I'm playing Fannin or else I am I'm really waiting until late. I I think it's a pretty

41:43like those profiles to me don't separate massively from the late round guys, the the guys that have a lot of route

41:50certainty but aren't that sexy like a Juwan Johnson or a Hunter Henry or some of the upside profiles late, which those

41:57have been taking a little bit of a hit.

41:59Rondale Gadsden's another one where I think we're kind of double counting.

42:01He's already going so so late for a year-two upside profile, but people just keep pushing him lower because of Charlie Kolar, you know, excitement out

42:09of camp.

42:10Kylen Granson had the the hernia thing.

42:12Like that's another really fun profile that's taken a bit of a Ealy and Zad D um, I I basically I think everyone's on

42:21him. I basically hear about him constantly. So, it's not like a surprise, but he's the other one that um, you can make bets on late that I

42:28would rather just wait on tight end and either take a a stable veteran like the few that I mentioned or or one of these

42:34upside swings.

42:35>> Let's talk running backs and when we get to round six and on, there's there's few bets to make here because a lot of

42:42running backs are getting pulled into the fifth round. Your quick thoughts on Travion Henderson. I've been getting beat up a little bit on my podcast for

42:50staying on the Travion Henderson train here. Uh, a lot of people are starting to fade Travion Henderson, embrace Ramondre Stevenson. I just can't quit

43:00the kind of upside that he presents to us. Three games with 28 plus points scored last year. The counting stats were fantastic. I really liked him as a

43:09prospect, but then we're seeing positivity with Ramondre Stevenson early on in camp. The connections he's having with Drake May out of the backfield as a

43:16pass catcher. Should I sort of slow my roll here? Where are you at on Travion?

43:21Are you looking to mix him in? How are you approaching sort of a a very difficult player for us to value in

43:26fantasy?

43:28>> Yeah, I just I think there's a limited number of these types of profiles and it's another one where you're talking

43:32about double counting. I mean, this is a year two player. He was the only running back in the NFL last year who had four

43:37runs of 50 plus yards. His profile coming out, the reason he got drafted in the second round was explosive runs and

43:42he did that as a rookie. You're already getting that price down. If you just said if you just say that, a round two

43:48back, explosive profile, had four 50 plus yard runs as a rookie, you're already getting that really priced down.

43:54There's a lot of um, reason to be optimistic at his ADP relative to that. Having said that, he's not cheap and there are a lot of

44:03concerns beyond that. There are a a of con There is a lot of context beyond that. There are a lot of reasons to

44:08worry about Rhamondre Stevenson. I do think going into the year Rhamondre Stevenson's going to be a headache for Henderson. I do think people who faded

44:13Henderson are going to be victory lapping on social media in week three.

44:17If you're drafting Henderson, be ready for that. Like you're they're going to be like you're an idiot, you're stupid, you're the dumbest I mean that's just

44:22that's the way that this this all works.

44:24>> I'm sure I'm sure I'm sure Scott Barrett's going to be texting me uh for the first three weeks of the season and

44:28all that kind of stuff.

44:30>> That's the way that works. But I would go back to Trayvon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson last year were another example of the way that a

44:36backfield can evolve over 17 weeks. And really Rhamondre Stevenson through week 12 or 13, I can't remember, had a 3.2 yards per carry average and a fumbling

44:45problem. And then he got efficient with the ball in hand stuff late and then they rode that into the postseason. And

44:50I do think that's where we're going to be week one. I don't think anyone knows, including Josh McDaniels and Mike Vrabel, where we're going to be in week

44:57eight or where we're going to be in week 17. There were points earlier in the season where even though they couldn't

45:02get Henderson on the field for big snap rates, they were prioritizing Henderson for way more touches on a smaller snap rate than Stevenson because it was

45:09worthwhile, because the explosive playability was there. Then Stevenson got better with the ball in hand efficiency and then they were like, oh

45:16well, we'll just keep the guy on the field that doesn't make all these pass blocking mistakes and is giving us efficient play. But if Stevenson starts

45:22to to stumble, if he's not efficient early, if Henderson hits for some big plays, there's a lot of things that can

45:27happen in an NFL season. There's way too much certainty here. You are getting a price down year two player who was

45:33efficient in the way he's supposed to be, who could get better at pass blocking, could improve in a variety of ways. Players get better going into year

45:40two. This is the type of market certainty I was talking about when I was talking about with Harold Fannin. That doesn't mean I'm all in on Henderson,

45:46I'm not. He's a really hard click. I mean honestly, he's a tough click. But I like in part because like you know that

45:52the early part of the season's probably not going to go well, but you're not going to be able to acquire him from

45:56people who drafted him, even if you're in trade leagues and especially in higher stakes stuff. There are limited profiles like this. I do think you want

46:02a little bit of exposure. Stevenson could get it hurt. There's a lot of things that could lead to Trayveon Henderson breaking out more, being more

46:09consistent in year two. One of the stats that my Ceiling Bananas podcast co-host Sean Siegel would routinely say last year is

46:16with the SIS data they have over at Rotoviz, Henderson would rank like as one of the highest guys in the league in percent of

46:25the correct hole hit. And Siegel's point was he needs to learn to freestyle a little bit more. He's running where the

46:33play is designed, where the blocking is designed, even on plays where some other running backs are using vision to cut back and things. Well, that's a rookie

46:39mistake, right? That's like but like it's not an uncorrectable mistake when you get more feel as you learn the running back

46:46position to when to bounce it, when to cut outside. And it's not a thing that's really going to make coaches angry that

46:52you're actually running where the play is blocked too often, right? Like that's not necessarily going to be something horrible for a guy like Henderson. The

46:59bigger issue is the pass blocking stuff, some of those things. But I mean, guys grow into year two and year three. Maybe

47:04he's just never going to be capable as a pass protector in those things. I I get the impression that the muddled fronts

47:11and the different pass rush stuff that the defensive lines have been doing has caused problems for offense, veteran offensive linemen, not just running

47:19backs. But I think we saw that in a lot of places last year where Basile Tuten got hit for some of this stuff. R.J.

47:24Harvey was never supposed to be a good pass blocker, but couldn't be out there on in pass blocking. The young running

47:29backs not knowing how to handle NFL pass protections in the backfield was kind of a theme and I think is more about what

47:37the defenses are doing and things. And these guys are going to grow into it.

47:40Some other players that are capable, veterans at that, had had to take time to grow into that stuff over time as

47:46well. You got to learn these things. And anyway, I I think there's a lot of room for Henderson to have a different year

47:51two than a year one, and I think people are way too confident that what we saw in year one is what he's going to be his

47:55whole career. That's not how any of this works.

47:57>> Yeah, I I I just I can't quit the idea of the upside that's presented and now as he starts to fall

48:04and also with the way the running back position is going, he's still a player that I'm going to be considering.

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48:23Go to splashsports.com/rotowire and they're giving us a 50% match. So if you deposit $50, you're going to get $25 for free. You can enter [snorts]

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48:57I know a player that I've heard you speak about Jonathan Brooks and also let's talk about Jaylen Warren. These two running backs are interesting

49:05because they have pass catching upside and we're occasionally getting them in round seven. Now, sometimes the running back gravitational pull will pull these

49:14guys all the way up to like the early sixth round, sometimes the end of the fifth, but for a lot of people in home

49:20leagues, seventh round is about where they're going to go. Your enthusiasm levels >> Let's start out for with Warren. I think

49:27people are having a little bit of a hard time breaking down the Pittsburgh Steeler running back room, but Warren was very good last year and

49:34theoretically a lot of those Kenneth Gainwell looks should go his way.

49:39>> I'm really into both of these guys and and couldn't really be two profiles that I think are more different. The biggest reason I'm

49:47into Warren is more of a high floor element in PPR. The Steelers had a massive number of running back targets last year. That's going to

49:54be an Aaron Rodgers stat that's going to continue even with new coaching staff this year. Kenneth Gainwell had 85 targets. There were six receivers who

50:02had 85 plus targets last year or running backs, excuse me. The other five were all going in like the first two rounds.

50:08It's all the guys that you'd think.

50:09Devon Achane's in there, Breece Hall, Robinson, Jamison Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey.

50:13Um Chase Brown is the other one. And then Ashton Dulin comes in around like 70-something. Those are the only seven guys above 60 running

50:23back targets last year. So this gap between 60 and 85, only one guy fell in there. That was Dulin. The of the top

50:29six I named five. The sixth one was Kenneth Gainwell. He's the This is the only spot where you have all this

50:34running back target volume, uh which we know that running back receiving is so massive, and it's not priced into ADP at

50:41all. Whether it's warranted So then the other side of this is I mentioned there's only seven guys that are over 60

50:46running back targets. Gainwell had 85.

50:48Warren still had 45. I mean, he's right there in that next tier at like There's a lot of number one running backs who

50:55had about 45 to 50, 55 targets last year. He was the clear number two behind a massive amount of target volume for

51:01Kenneth Gainwell. Whether it's Warren or whether it is uh Rico Dowdle, who I'm also vaguely into, I think there's a lot

51:08of PPR floor in this backfield. Aaron Rodgers' running backs have always scored well in fantasy, and it's really for this reason. When he's with the Jets

51:15briefly, he was throwing to Breece Hall a ton. Even like Braelon Allen was catching a bunch of stuff. Isaiah Davis had some like interesting receiving

51:22stuff in very small sample, but like Rodgers is for all of his you know, idiosyncrasies and where he's at in his career and all this stuff,

51:29he's able to process quickly, and he's still accurate. And he's accurate in the short area of the field of especially has arm talent. He delivers balls to

51:35running backs in space where they can catch it and run. And that is a quarterback skill that I don't think people pay enough attention to. There's

51:41some quarterbacks who get the ball to the to the running back too late in the down, or they throw it too hard, they

51:46throw an an uncatchable ball. We think of like all the running back targets as easily catchable. It's not the way that

51:51works.

51:52So, anyway, Jaylen Warren to me, very solid floor, a good player. He's going to have his rushing production and all that stuff, but very solid floor because

52:00there's a ton of vacated target volume at running back there. I'm not a big vacated targets guy, but I think that's

52:05going to be there for him and D'Onta Foreman to split up. Already had 45 targets last year. I have them both for

52:10like 60 this year at least with Warren having more upside. I like them both at cost. Brooks is the really high ceiling,

52:17high floor play. Like I mean, low floor play, right? Like we don't know what to expect with the health stuff. All of the

52:23doctors that I've heard are talking about it like it's favorable. They gave him all of last year off. They're giving him plenty of time. They loved him. They

52:29drafted him in the second round knowing he was coming off an ACL. He could have been a first round pick in that class.

52:33His profile, the evasion rate, the yards after contact per attempt, the breakaway rate, the yards per route run, it's a discount Jeremiah Love profile. The the

52:44evasion rate's actually slightly better missed tackles forced per touch than Jeremiah Love's career. The other three numbers very slightly worse, but in the

52:51same kind of ballpark as what Jeremiah Love was. Love had a lot more volume in college. One of the issues with Brooks

52:56is he also didn't have a ton of big volume seasons in college. We don't know whether he's going to be able to

53:01maintain huge volume at the NFL level, but the talent level is clear. The Panthers thought it when they invested in him. They thought the first year was

53:09going to be kind of a throwaway. We've now had two throwaway years. People are like his career's over. I don't think

53:15Carolina sees it that way. The the draft capital stuff signals intent. They want to get a return on investment out of

53:20that second round pick. This is when he's healthy going into year three.

53:23Chuba lost his job last year to Rico Dowdle. I just think Brooks is the clear play there and I've been saying that for

53:28months now and that the ADPs have flipped now. Brooks is going higher, but Brooks is a talent where if he really

53:34hits a ceiling and stays healthy, it's I mean, it's not Jeremiah Love, you know, at that exact same level, but it's

53:42multiple rounds better. At the same time, there's a ton of risk associated with it. It could be a massive floor.

53:47You could have this huge hole, this huge miss in this range, which is a tricky bet to make. So, I see these guys as as

53:53sort of different um risk profiles, but both very interesting picks.

53:58>> Yeah, I mean, I think Brooks, if you hit and we get the the continued trend of Dave Canales sort of being a running

54:04back ADP whisperer, you could end up with with Brooks giving you that 14 and 1/2 15 point per game season where he

54:11catches a ton of passes and is one of the like the featured weapons along with Terrace Marshall and McMillan in this

54:16offense. So, uh very limited in Carolina after Jaylen Coker Terrace Marshall and McMillan. I think Brooks has a chance to really carve out a major role in the

54:23passing game and Chuba's just so limited in that regard. And Chuba also doesn't produce any explosive plays. I think we could see that with Brooks. And I think

54:32Canales has been really, really positive every time he talks about Brooks as well. So, really, really an interesting one there. Let's pivot over to the

54:40Minnesota backfield. Very quick thoughts on how you're approaching this one.

54:44Kyler Murray named the starter. We have faith in Kevin O'Connell sort of getting things right this year, at least better than it was last year, and all of these

54:53guys are cheap.

54:55>> Yeah, Aaron Jones is 32 and the peripherals really cratered last year.

54:59He took a discounted contract to stay.

55:01At the beginning of the off season, there were some quotes that it seemed like he was definitely going to be gone.

55:06Excuse me, he's 31, but he turns 32 on December 2nd. So, in season of his age 32 year this year, but

55:13um there were some quotes early in the off season that sounded like he would be gone and then he took a little bit of a

55:18restructure cheaper contract, I think, to come back. I do think he's going to play a decent amount, but I think he's

55:22an an incredibly hard play in fantasy because I think you're betting on a declining skill set and um he was still able to be efficient cuz he can

55:32run to space well and they get him into space well on the perimeter and he's fast. I mean, even at his age, he's

55:37fast. But, you're talking about a a declining skill set, and then like just a hope that he stays healthy and and

55:42isn't more involved than it seems like he's probably going to be. I They talked a lot last off season about Jones and

55:47Jordan Mason being kind of complimentary players going into the year, an interior runner and an outside runner.

55:53Um Mason's uh usage fell off late in the year for Jones, which is a little bit of a problem cuz Jones was not producing. Uh

56:02but, it does seem like this off season they're really into to Mason. And so, I'm I'm I'm I'm getting increasingly excited about Mason cuz I want to fade

56:10Jones, and there's not another clear option there. Then, the other option is the day three rookie De'Von Achane, who's an intriguing speedster that I

56:18think they're viewing as the heir apparent to Jones.

56:22He may or may not have a role that like the rest, you know, as things develop with with Jones, but um I think there's

56:29some potential for him to be a pretty big hit if things do develop favorably for him. Regardless, I think Mason is

56:34the guy that I really like from like week one through week 17 to be a pretty big part of this rushing attack. I think

56:41he's he's probably pretty significantly underpriced as well. Um there's not a ton of receiving value there, but if this offense is better, he should be the

56:49goal-line back as well. Uh so, I'm yeah, I'm I'm starting to attack him a little bit.

56:53>> Yeah, we Scott Barrett and I took Jordan Mason in I believe it was the 10th round of an FFPC Main Event, and then we took

56:59Achane I believe it that was round 15.

57:01Just double-tapped those guys. I have the same sort of reservations about Aaron Jones. I've mixed Aaron Jones in a little bit in best ball, but he's been a

57:10pure fade when it comes to redraft.

57:12Let's talk about the quarterback position briefly because when you're drafting in rounds six through 10, every single round there's intriguing quarterbacks who pop up. Starting with

57:22like Lamar Jackson who sometimes falls into round six, and then you go with Drake Maye, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, all the way down to round 10 when you

57:32start seeing guys like Dak Prescott in the mix and all the guys really falling.

57:36You see Jalen Hurts in there as well.

57:38How are you attacking quarterback? Are you looking to attack it in rounds 6 through 10 or do you want to wait even

57:44further in your drafts?

57:46>> There are some really strong late round profiles. So I think the optimal strategy is just to think about it like

57:51a late round QB season in large part because of that huge point I made earlier about how many misses there were in the first 10 rounds

58:00for running backs, receivers last year and and what you needed to win. Like the hits that you needed. I think if you

58:05think about it from a perspective that you're going to have misses early, you want those non-QB picks early to really build receiver depth, to

58:12really build running back depth, to really give yourself a lot of shots at enough hits to to have a strong team this year

58:20obviously. The two players that I'm intrigued by are Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels. The rushing profiles are really strong. Um when they're healthy,

58:27Daniels had the massive ceiling 2 years ago in 2024. He finished about four points per game better than Josh Allen last year as the QB1 in 2025. So I mean

58:37you want guys like that if you're going to pay up that can separate in a meaningful way. I think Lamar has that

58:41potential still in him. I think Jayden Daniels is the one where I mean the rushing yardage rushing attempts per game and and yardage has been strong.

58:50The health stuff is concerning.

58:52The problem with Daniels is I liked the bet before the Laremy Tunsil injury. I would have been very interested in Jayden Daniels

58:59at this cost and now Laremy Tunsil's out and I think it meaningfully affects him and it doesn't meaningfully affect the ADP. He's not going to fall in the way

59:05that like if you lost a number one receiver, he would fall but Tunsil's a massive massive miss for the Commanders for the whole season now. I think it

59:15really hurts Jayden Daniels ceiling outcomes to not have this left tackle that some like ETR's O-line guru Brandon Thorn had as

59:24like this an underrated top of the line left tackle that was really the the centerpiece of a unit he ranked higher than I saw in a

59:33lot of other places and he felt was a better unit because of Tunsil and then their right guard Sam Cosmi, but like

59:39the other three spots were more volatile and Tunsil really was the key there. And now Tunsil's gone. I mean, he's out for

59:44like probably the the entirety of the year with that torn tricep.

59:48That is like a bummer for the Jayden Daniels upside case. And like I said, you got to pay the same cost. Like you don't get a I

59:56wanted to play him some when he had Tunsil, but now that he that he doesn't have Tunsil, so I'm I'm just I'm leaning more and more

60:03into late round QB and just understanding that I need depth at the non-QB positions early.

60:09>> Yeah, it's certainly a year where if especially in in 20 roster spot leagues, you can double-tap quarterback really really easily and sort of wait into QB2

60:17range. You can also sort of wait for like the the end of the QB1 range and get access sometimes to like 12th round

60:25Brock Purdy, 12th round Dak Prescott.

60:27It's really a year where I think you need to be open-minded with your approach at quarterback and certainly attack the position when there's not an

60:36edge elsewhere. One other player sort of a sleeper for some people in in leagues like ESPN and and Sleeper and Yahoo, a

60:44player who will go pretty deep and then for FFPC and NFFC managers, you're still talking about a 10th rounder. Let's end

60:51the show with your thoughts on Keaton Mitchell. I know this is a player that you're very bullish on at cost.

60:58>> Yeah, I wrote a a big piece on him a little more than a month ago and people have been sending me all the the

61:07camp clips. His His price has been skyrocketing since then, but I called it don't let the don't listen to the boomers about Keaton Mitchell and then

61:14in my my subtitle was just because he's small, fast, and fun doesn't mean there's meat to the profile. This is a

61:20guy who was a a workhorse in college. A lot of people are like, he's not Devon Achane and Mike McDaniel's coming over

61:26from Miami. There are a lot of similarities there. I mean, you got you go read the piece. I obviously emphasize that he has not had the production that

61:32Achane has had. They gave him 5 million fully guaranteed for a former UDFA who's only had like 140 touches in the NFL.

61:38There was a pretty strong commitment there. Mike McDaniel put up some wanted posters apparently and all this stuff.

61:43But I think there's going to be a lot of passing to the running backs in this offense. I'm I'm excited about Omarian

61:48Hampton as well. Um, that that talk that they're going to use all the backs a little bit concerning for people in the

61:53last week. This is going to be a really good offense. There's going to be running back production. They're going to throw to the backs. They've been

61:58using Mitchell vertically. Those those uh vaunted running back air yards that I like to talk about over at the newsletter have been really exciting to

62:05see in camp. I think they're going to use his athleticism a lot of different ways and that's going to create a little

62:10bit of floor, but I think there's a real ceiling here as well in a McDaniel's offense. If if McDaniel has any skill,

62:16it is using speed and space. That's why he wanted Keiton Mitchell. If Keiton Mitchell can stay healthy, there's a lot more meat to that profile than I think

62:23people realize going back to the college stuff, some of that longer view uh thinking on on the player. So, yeah, he's he's undersized. He's not he's not

62:31massive, but he's incredibly fast. He had the most clock times by NFL Pro at 20 plus miles per hour last year and he

62:37did it on 59 carries. The second uh the tied for second was uh Jonathan Taylor and Dameon Pierce who both had, you

62:44know, 250, 300, 350 carries, whatever it was.

62:48Um, Keiton Mitchell is in incredibly explosive, arguably the most explosive running back in the league by those clocked metrics.

62:54Um, so this is a guy that is one of those outlier types. Yeah, you can you can have a big miss, but the the stuff

62:59about the receiving that I was emphasizing the ways that McDaniel used Achane and the similarities between them presents the opportunity for a little

63:06bit more floor in PPR leagues than I think people realize as well. So, I'm really in.

63:11>> Yeah, he's a fun way to access an offense I think we're all betting on and certainly feels like a Mike McDaniel

63:16guy. I'm with you that I'm not worried about Mike McDaniel saying all three backs are going to be utilized. If you're fading Omarian Hampton because of

63:22a a throwaway quote from McDaniel, who also could have been messing with us a little bit. I mean, we had he heard Mike

63:28McDaniel say really nice things about Ali Gordon and Jaylen Wright at multiple times in Miami as well, and it was still

63:34all Devon Achane, but completely with you on on Keaton Mitchell. Love drafting him in like the 10th, 11th round. The problem is I think, you know, people

63:42like yourself keep talking about him, Ben. He's going to go in the eighth round. So, we got to we got to scale

63:46that back a little bit, but >> I think that I think we're at the cap.

63:49We got to be close to the cap because the guys that had a hit on me are like, we're getting into like the the clear

63:54number ones. He's he's already risen past all of the, you know, contingent number twos.

64:00Um I I don't know. I'll probably be wrong. You know, you know how it is with main event season. These These guys

64:04start flying up boards.

64:06>> Absolutely. Absolutely. Let everybody know once again where they can find your work.

64:10>> Yeah, Stealing Signals newsletter, bengretchatsubstack.com, The Long View, Stealing Bananas podcast. Be doing a guest post over at The Athletic this

64:17year as well.

64:18>> Oh, awesome stuff over there. Um make sure you check out the FFPC Main Event and Big Gorilla Targets article that I

64:25put out. I'm going to update that. I'm also going to do an NFFC one. Got a lot of great articles over on the site. Go

64:30check out Dan Fornek's offensive line rankings article. Terrific stuff from Dan. That article is free over at rotowire.com. And stick with us here at

64:39the podcast and YouTube channel. We're dropping daily shows all throughout August. We're going to help you crush your leagues this season.

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