0:00Breaking down deep fantasy football sleepers you need to know before week one of the NFL season. Theo Gremminger, lead fantasy analyst right here at
0:07RotoWire. Joined today by Pat Dougherty of NBC Sports. This is the first time I've had Pat on a show. I've been aware
0:15of Pat for a long time, but I haven't had him on a podcast, so excited about this one. Pat, we're going to dive into
0:20a bunch of these sleepers, but we've had the massive news dump over the seas over the weekend. Josh Jacobs on the
0:26commissioner's exempt list, and people are sort of trying to figure out where to put Marshawn Lloyd and then a couple of these other running backs like Caleb
0:34Johnson and Chris Brooks in their rankings.
0:37Commissioner's exempt list, it could be a death sentence, it could be six games.
0:41It feels more like the longer one when it comes to Jacobs based on the timing and potential severity seems pretty highly likely. Where are you putting
0:52Marshawn Lloyd in the hierarchy of running backs? Is he officially in the dead zone? Is he in the bottom of the
0:58dead zone? Where is he at sort of for you?
1:01And when we've had a couple of days to sort of think about this one.
1:04>> First off, not to immediately sidetrack us, but great to finally be podcasting.
1:08But I'd say a really rare Roto World Roto Wire meeting of the minds. You know, I don't think I've ever been on a
1:13Roto Wire show. You know, we're friendly competitors, but uh >> Well, we both compete for the name we both compete for the name Roto.
1:21>> They're not just Roto, Roto W.
1:22>> Yeah, that's right. So, if you put it in the old Google, there's going to be some some competition in the SEO for sure.
1:28>> But so much respect for Roto Wire. Thank you for having me.
1:32Marshawn Lloyd, it makes I I can't even decide if Josh Jacobs landing on the exempt list makes Lloyd more vexing or
1:40less vexing. Less vexing in that we were pretty sure before the suspension he was going to be getting work and like steady
1:48like enough work to be 12 team league relevant. We just weren't entirely positive. Now we know for sure like a workload of some magnitude is coming. I
1:58think it's still you got to set the baseline modestly, I think 10 to 12 touches, but I think he's in the dead
2:05zone. I think in particular, he's in like the Kenneth Gainwell zone. Does that make sense to you? Like I view him
2:12as kind of like a similar guy where we know we're not getting like a bell cow workload, but we do know we're going to
2:19hopefully get some high value touches.
2:22Unlike with Kenneth Gainwell, we're hoping for some really explosive plays from MarShawn Lloyd.
2:27MarShawn Lloyd, everyone who like listens to me or reads my stuff knows I'm kind of always a conservative drafter. In managed leagues where I'm
2:35not playing like a large field tournament, he's unfortunately the kind of guy where I think someone's always going to be higher on him than me. I say
2:42unfortunately cuz I really believe in the upside. How could you not believe in the upside?
2:47But I tend to focus like more than other people in the downside and a guy, you know, just hasn't played for 2 years.
2:53There's a lot of risk there. But I don't know if he falls like that Kenneth Gainwell zone, then maybe I'm taking the
3:00upside flyer. I think though he's going to probably be going higher than that.
3:03Kenneth Gainwell is more like the back end of the RB 30s. He's going to probably be going the high end RB 30s,
3:09is he not at this point? Ahead of Tony Pollard, Rico Dowdle, maybe. And that would probably be too rich for me.
3:15If he falls, I'm getting very excited, but I doubt that he's going to be falling at this point cuz why would he?
3:20>> Yeah, I mean, I think it's an interesting take and I'm I'm definitely more bullish on Lloyd than you are. I
3:26think that the 10 to 12 touches seems kind of like the floor and and I think that it's the receiving upside that he
3:32has where could we see some Aaron Jones type usage for him where we saw how successful Jones was in that offense
3:40under LaFleur years ago. They've been waiting for MarShawn Lloyd and I think it's a organization that has patience when it comes to injuries. We saw it
3:48with Christian Watson where Watson goes down, they stick by him, Uh they they renegotiate the contract and then they give him this huge extension. Lloyd, it
3:56feels like it maybe it could be that similar version. Is he going to have the same sort of volume that we saw for
4:01Jacobs in 2024 and 2025? Absolutely not.
4:04I think there's potential value for a guy like Chris Brooks absorbing um potential I don't know 10 touches a game, eight to 10. Um but I think
4:12Lloyd's going to get the high value ones. He's really explosive. He's got the very cool nickname, don't underestimate the Yeat Cannon. Everyone
4:19is calling him the Yeat Cannon. And and and Lloyd I think deserves to be closer to the Brecial Tueton range of guys um
4:28based on, you know, when we talk about the question marks with the offense, we love the play caller in Green Bay, the
4:34opportunity for Lloyd and even without Jacobs, it's an offense that we still expect to score a lot of points. With some of the other guys going in that
4:41range, you mentioned like the Rico Dowdle, Jaylen Warren, those guys are in a potential ugly split. Um we talked about Cam Akers going ahead of him. Um
4:49now we're sort of thinking maybe there's a little tension with him and Harbaugh.
4:53So, when we start picking apart a lot of these running backs, David Montgomery, the Woody Marks threat, um and then you mentioned Kenneth Gainwell,
5:00Bucky Irving should probably go ahead of Lloyd in most of these drafts, but you've got the threat of Kenneth Gainwell there. So, I think he deserves
5:06to be in this sort of that range of of of players. If you're kind of a wait-and-see-at-first guy or you're a
5:12little bit scared about the volume, you could absolutely push him down a little bit, but I think probably in that sixth,
5:17seventh round of drafts, we'll see how it shakes out this week. But let's get us started talking about sleepers. We've got 10 names here and I think a lot of
5:25these names are going undrafted in home leagues and they're going in like the 15th round or later in some competitive formats like FFPC, NFFC. Some of these
5:35names are really, really fun and I also feel like I'm working on a preseason waiver wire article. A lot of these
5:41names are in that. Uh some of these guys are summer risers. So, why don't we get started? Pat, you've got a list of guys
5:47that I thought was really good. Um why don't we get started with Adonai Mitchell? And I was really happy to hear
5:53that you were on Adonai. I have a ton of exposure to him in best ball. I've mixed in some redraft as well.
6:00>> I mean, Adonai is a guy where he's barely going in the top 70, which I was not expecting cuz Adonai, I think a
6:08lot of us industry types were kind of talking about him in like March and April. And he was someone where I
6:13assumed the ADP would just be steadily rising over the summer. And I'm pretty surprised that never happened cuz the hype really never stopped. You get
6:23non-stop uh positive quotes from his teammates and the coaching staff. I think he's been pretty impressive to the assembled Jets media. And I just thought Adonai
6:32Mitchell was someone who would become kind of like a silly season guy because Adonai Mitchell, talk about a guy where we know the downside. We've vividly
6:41witnessed the downside with our own eyes. Like he just might be two mistake-prone to ever be a regular NFL contributor. But when you have a guy
6:48with that explosive of play ability, yeah, I think even on like the sharper formats, he's seriously barely going in the top 70. And you know, which is like
6:56wide receiver six, almost getting close to seven range. I think he's kind of like an ideal wide receiver four or five, more ideal wide receiver five on
7:04your bench. Because when I think of someone off my bench, you either get like the PPR spammer, and those are harder to get now as your wide
7:12receiver five. They've moved just moved up the rankings over the years. Or you get someone like the Marquez Valdes-Scantling type, where they might
7:19not get a ton of targets, but on a limited workload, a limited target total, they could catch two passes, 71 yards, score a touchdown, and flip your
7:27matchup. And so, where a lot of people view that volatility like I don't know, man. Adonai Mitchell is like too great
7:31of a chance he's going to hit me with a zero. I view it as I like having a bench guy who might flip my matchup. And I
7:37don't think the playing time is really a question right now. It seems pretty locked in in the number two role. Uh I'm
7:42just very, very surprised we never got a ADP takeoff for Adonai Mitchell.
7:46>> Yeah, I mean, you look at how the season ended for him last year and just how how good that December was.
7:53Some really, really strong performances.
7:54He had an eight-catch game with 12 targets against Atlanta.
7:58He had a six-catch game with a touchdown against Jacksonville. And it's the continuity he has with this coaching staff where he's
8:07been there now. We can almost throw the Indianapolis time out the window. It was just a bad fit. But you know, when we go back to that draft
8:15class, Xavier Worthy sort of lit up the combine. But if it wasn't Xavier Worthy running that absurd 40-yard dash time, it would have been Adonai Mitchell would
8:24be the wide receiver where like, "Oh, look at how athletic he is." The 40, the vertical, everything about Adonai was fantastic. The draft capital was
8:32terrific. And now he gets this second lease on life in sort of the as a throwaway name in the Sauce Gardner
8:39trade.
8:40So, I really think Adonai is going to get off to a really hot start. Could he end up having a Alec Pierce-esque season
8:47in New York this year? I think maybe that could be the case. And I love how you framed it where we're chasing upside
8:54in the flex position instead of chasing some like low like, you know, floor play PPR scam guy. You're going with Adonai
9:01Mitchell, a player who can get behind any defense and put up a spike week. And I think the presence of Garrett Wilson
9:06will help him. And like you said, he's locked in. Omar Cooper is struggling to win out the wide receiver three job.
9:13He's competing with Isaiah Williams right now. So, Adonai completely locked in. Love that take. And you could still get him in like the 15th round. For me,
9:22I'm going to go with a player who's going a little bit ahead of Adonai Mitchell in recent drafts. And he's been
9:27a summer riser for sure. It's Jacobi Lane for the Baltimore Ravens.
9:32I sent out a trade offer for him in a dynasty league in FFPC dynasty league this week. And some one of my league
9:37mates quoted a bunch of things I've said on a podcast to me and he's like I'm I'm definitely not trading him to you, Theo.
9:43So, I appreciate you listening, but it kind of stinks not to be able to trade for Jacobi. The vibes are immaculate
9:49with Jacobi Lane. He's about 6'5. He's incredibly long and there has this opportunity, I think, to be a real red
9:58zone threat for Baltimore. You talk about the opportunity opposite Zay Flowers where right now Lane is sort of the wide receiver three, but I think he
10:07overtakes Rashod Bateman early on in the season. You had veteran beat reporter Jamison Helmsley saying this was the most impressive rookie wide receiver
10:16he's ever seen while covering the Baltimore Ravens. And Lane, I think, has some big time outcomes in in his range of outcomes right now where if this
10:26offense becomes a little bit more pass-happy, I think he could provide us with some spike weeks. And then we look at Zay Flowers who were all expecting to
10:33take this big step forward under Decklin Doyle, but they've never targeted Zay Flowers in the end zone. Then you have Mark Andrews who a lot of us are kind of
10:42expecting a potential bounce-back year.
10:44He's healthy off the tightrope, but what if Mark Andrews is cooked and starting to regress, getting a little bit older?
10:50So, I think Lane really has an opportunity to be the end zone threat, the red zone threat, and I think it
10:56could be even more than that. If this offense is like the 25th most high highest pass volume team in in the NFL,
11:04still a very low pass volume team, but certainly not like 32nd overall that we saw in the previous years, then I think
11:10Lane could really take off. He feels like a player that was very mispriced by many, including me, who were looking at
11:18Elijah Serratt as the potential winner out of the draft class, but it's been anything but that. Lane, high pedigreed player, day two draft capital, and now
11:27in a huge role right out the jump for Baltimore. Your thoughts on Jacobi Lane and how you're approaching him.
11:34>> Well, you just made so many good points and the most important point I think is the potential red zone role where Zay
11:40Flowers has always had everything but the red zone role. And I think a lot of people think it's going to finally
11:45arrive this year, but this rim finisher type in Jacoby Lane is something this offense has just been painfully missing for years. Like Mark Andrews was just
11:55never quite that guy. Isaiah Likely could have maybe been that guy. It didn't happen for a variety of reasons.
12:01I think they would just love a true goal line receiver. Uh he's been making those plays in training camp. I know there
12:09were questions about he looked a little sluggish at USC at times. Can he really be that much more productive, a different player in the NFL? It just
12:16seems like he's maybe in the right place at the right time with the inventive young play caller we hope in Declan
12:22Doyle, kind of like a re-energized Lamar Jackson, and then just an offense where there's an acute need not only for that
12:28role, but for viable receiver targets of any kind behind Zay Flowers. This is not a good deep receiver core. They they
12:35have all the incentive in the world to give Jacoby Lane opportunities to maybe not just earn the number three role, but
12:41to earn the number two role. I just think he's in the right place at the right time for both the Ravens and maybe
12:45fantasy managers.
12:46>> Wide receiver 58 as of today on Underdog. So he's moved up, but not moved up to the point that I think he
12:52needs to be. Um why don't you talk about your next sleeper here? Let's go with Emitt Johnson. He seems like really one
13:01of the highest contingent upside handcuffs in the NFL at this point.
13:06>> He does. And by the way, I feel like absurd calling some of these guys sleepers. Like most fantasy players know
13:12who Adonai Mitchell is. Emitt Johnson, you know, if you if you're paying attention year round, you know, you've been you've been reading Emitt Johnson
13:18hype since he was drafted in the fifth round, but he's another guy where the ADP just never really took off because
13:25how could it with Kenneth Walker's ADP like so stratospheric, you know, potential three-down role for Kenneth Walker, but I think they want this to be
13:33a two-man backfield. Remaking the backfield was never about just giving it to one guy. Like the Chiefs running game had gotten so unacceptably bad. They
13:41didn't have any good role players even.
13:43It was just sub-replacement level guys in kind of all three downs and every role, the passing game, goal line, whatever you want to name it. And
13:50Kenneth Walker obviously has been the early-down guy. But I think they want someone to be maybe a more traditional third-round back that they've lacked in
13:58recent years. And say what you will about Amari Demercado, you do not take it for granted that a fifth-rounder will just come in and
14:04easily beat out Amari Demercado for that backup role, that potential third-down role. And by all accounts, it wasn't easy victory for Emari Demercado. And
14:13another guy has been getting a really steady drumbeat of coaching staff praise. And he's going to maybe start as a third-down guy, but we know he can be
14:21more than a third-down guy. So I agree with you for the like the contingency handcuff type back. I think he has maybe
14:28some very low-end but potential standalone value. And then the contingency value is just off the charts in this Chiefs offense.
14:34>> Yeah, and I think you framed it really correctly where it it's a player that has some standalone value and I think
14:40he's a viable best ball pick no matter what happens with Kenneth Walker this year. But when you look back at Kenneth
14:47Walker, there hasn't been like a catastrophic season-long injury, but we do look at 2024 where he played only 11 games and then you go back to the
14:57previous two years, 15 games, 15 games.
15:00So last year was the only year of his career that he played in every single game.
15:06So for Kenneth Walker, we love him. I love taking him. And on Kenneth Walker builds, I've tried to prioritize Emari Demercado in builds where I can support
15:16having a handcuff because you're not paying that handcuff premium price tag for him. But certainly in best ball, you framed it really well. And I think if we
15:25see a Kenneth Walker go down with an injury, >> [snorts] >> the the Emitt Johnson pass-catching role could be really good. He had 46 catches
15:33last year at Nebraska to go with 1451 rushing yards. He was like a usage king at like the highest level of college
15:41football last year. So, really, really fun one. Pat, why don't you let everybody know what you have going on maybe the the rest of the off-season,
15:49which is the like dwindling away. The season's right around the corner. And then what is a week in the life look
15:55like when we get to the regular season?
15:56>> Well, it was well-timed sleeper show, cuz my final article of the preseason, I'm I'm doing trying to do a sleeper for
16:02all 32 teams. I know a bit of a contrived um idea for an article, but not every team had someone where I could
16:09even contrive someone. So, I'm calling it sleepers and spoilers. Um it's mostly sleepers, but then some other guys maybe like Najee Harris, who's not at all a
16:16sleeper, but could very much be a spoiler for the New York >> I've never heard I've never heard of him.
16:22>> So, that's my That's my final preseason article. I have a Q&A coming up live Q&A Thursday 1:00 p.m. Eastern. We got the
16:29Rotoworld Football Show going, you know, every day almost every day beginning next week. My weekly rankings article. I have a weekly Sunday recap article. It's
16:38kind of standard industry fare, but stuff I've done for a long time. Stuff I really hope people will read. But of
16:43course, after you're done listening to Theo, check out the Rotoworld Football Show with myself and Danny Carter and Kyle Dvorchak.
16:49>> Yeah, check out uh check out all of Pat's stuff. Really good stuff over there. Um let's keep this one going, and
16:54you went with Emitt Johnson, who sort of has this stand-alone value potentially.
16:59I'm going to go with a player that probably doesn't have a whole lot of stand-alone value, but his role is perfect right now, and he's dirt cheap.
17:06In fact, he's so cheap that he wasn't drafted in a lot of 20-man roster leagues uh for the for the whole summer.
17:14So, if you're doing a preseason waiver wire run, I think you need to prioritize Malik Davis. But if you've also had a
17:20home league draft and you're looking for someone with big-time contingent upside, go grab Malik Davis as well. His handcuff role is very, very solid in
17:32Dallas. Javonte Williams has certainly been a player that looks like he's in store for a massive volume, very high usage role in Dallas. But Davis, we've
17:43also heard Schottenheimer and other Dallas Cowboys coaches just continually praise him, and they praise him on the little things. They love him as a pass
17:52blocker. We saw it last year where he had a couple of strong performances. But when you look at Dallas, it's the
18:00quality of the offense, it's the quality of the offensive line, it's the trust that we have in Dak Prescott. And even
18:06if it was Javonte missing like two or three games, Malik Davis would be a huge waiverwire add. We want to have uh
18:14players on our bench that are no-brainers to go right into our lineup.
18:18And Malik Davis, there's not another running back on Dallas that we were we'd be worried about right now to carve out
18:25another role. I think Davis's role would look very similar to Javonte Williams if Javonte missed time. They waived Jayden Blue. They waived Phil Mafah. All of the
18:36threats to Davis are off the roster. And in fact, they picked up Amari Demercado, who's now going to be on his third team
18:42in in in like six >> It's Malik Davis, and that's it. He needs to be treated like a high-end handcuff, but you're able to get him in
18:50the final rounds of drafts right now. If not, he's completely undrafted and he's on your waiverwire.
18:56>> So these contingency guys, you not only want someone who's going to slide into an obvious role. In Malik Davis's case, it'll be the obvious early down
19:04guy. He could immediately form a committee with Amari Demercado if Javonte Williams goes down. But we know Malik Davis, we know his role. He'll be
19:12the early down guy. So that's always one huge requirement for like a good contingency stash. And the other is just it's a great offense environment. It's a
19:19great offense. You know, even if there's guys with maybe a slightly more straightforward case on a worse offense, I would always tiebreak in favor of
19:27someone like a Cowboys type offense, obviously. And just two I just wonder my offseason line all all spring and summer on Javonte Williams was, "If I were the
19:38Dallas Cowboys, instead of like resigning Javonte Williams for like $24 million over three years, I would have just maybe tried to find the next
19:45Javonte Williams." Cuz it was, by football standards, like a heroic season by Javonte Williams last year, better than he had any right to be, better than
19:52we ever expected. It's just not the kind of season I really would expect to run back for Javonte Williams. And he was so
19:59inefficient and unproductive as a pass catcher. I think he's kind of maxed out as a two-down guy. And I just wouldn't
20:05be surprised if, you know, the regression monster kind of comes for him this year. Uh and then maybe Malik mixes in more than we're expecting on early
20:12downs. So, not to the point where he's going to take away Javonte Williams' starting job or anything like that.
20:18Don't mean to suggest that. But it's that Javonte might not be quite as We're not I don't think we're going to get I'm
20:23not taking it for granted we're getting 2025 Javonte Williams. And then Malik Davis is a really good bench stash.
20:29>> Yeah, I mean, and we we go back to Javonte Williams. We had the the catastrophic injury in 2022. Since then,
20:35he's been really reliable. I think he's got this reputation as a guy who's missed a bunch of games. But you know
20:41and I know when you have your career high volume season, it doesn't always work that way the next year. I mean, the
20:48volume is hard to sustain for back-to-back years. And I think also Dallas views themselves as a contender.
20:54And if it was a a nagging small injury, they have the confidence in Davis to put him in the lineup. Even if you got like
21:01a two-three week run out, it would be a very very valuable one for your fantasy team.
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22:04The next sleeper you're talking about, there's definitely a hive for this guy.
22:09And it's it's it's a perfect kind of target because it's a number three running back, but it's very much an ambiguous backfield where neither player
22:18is giving us a ton of confidence at least in terms of what they've done with Jordan Mason for his whole entire
22:24career and Aaron Jones we're looking at he's getting a little bit older, he's 32 years old to start the year. Demone
22:30Clayborn though, there's some beat reporters there who are over the top with how he's looked and potentially his role as the season moves along.
22:39>> So yeah, the Demone Clayborn hive, there are dozens of us. Let's just get the record straight, there are dozens of us.
22:45And then I'm surprised there aren't more of us cuz outside the top 70 right now running back. I think he's the RB 73
22:52which just you you hit the nail on the head where it's such an uncertain unsettled situation ahead of him. It's not unsettled as in who the top two
22:59backs are, it's Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason like you said, but Aaron Jones I think is just out of gas. Last year
23:06Jordan Mason looked like the kind of guy, not to make a really cringe-worthy pun, but like looked like he never even
23:12filled up the tank. Aaron Jones out of gas. I'm not sure Jordan Mason ever even had it. And Demond Claiborne has been
23:18drawing steady praise. Aaron Jones I think himself actually called Demond Claiborne special. I mean, profiles has maybe compared >> Compared him compared him to Jahmyr
23:26Gibbs. Aaron Jones said the words Yeah, he said Jahmyr Gibbs.
23:29>> I forgot about that. And Demond Claiborne kind of out of the gate maybe a potential lightning role. And does does Mason and Jones I just think don't
23:37have it on early downs. And I think Demond Claiborne could have an immediate role. It's kind of role that could grow
23:43quickly. I'm very very surprised that that ADP just never really went anywhere at all. Where he's essentially undrafted. I've got a lot of Demond
23:50Claiborne and the thing is it's this a very very It's a zero risk flyer. So if I'm totally wrong and say he's like
23:57Jaden Blue like, "Oh, he's healthy scratched week one." All right, that's interesting. I you can cut him with relative relatively little fuss damage
24:04to your team, but I don't think that's going to happen to Demond Claiborne.
24:07>> Yeah, it's it's funny cuz I remember I I had Matt Waldman on when I was at Fantasy Points on on Dynasty Life, my
24:13dynasty show. Matt was all over Claiborne. He was like one of his favorite backs in this whole draft class. And it sort of continued to grow
24:20where there'd be more and more guests who were into Claiborne that I've had on on on both channels.
24:27And I I sort of got into Claiborne. I have a some exposure to him in dynasty and in best ball as well. He he sort of
24:33was the last draftable running back range guy on like Underdog and some of those places. But I made a comparison on
24:41X that he's like rookie year Keeton Mitchell.
24:45And Sigmund Bloom quickly like was offended by that one and said to me, "No, he's Devonta Freeman." And I said, "Whoa, whoa." Like so I need to pay
24:53attention a little bit more. I'd say the only problem with Clayborn is it would hurt terribly if you had him on
25:00your roster and then one of those guys goes down and then you have to spend a ton of fab to go get him. So, it's
25:07almost like he's better for leagues that are deeper than a shallow format. In a shallow format, it's going to be really
25:13difficult to roster him because Pat, you know that week one and week two is going to have a ton of names that maybe you're
25:19off the radar that we're going to want to add off the waiver wire when we see that early usage, but if you're in a
25:23deep format, I love Clayborn and I think when we look at this offense with the mobility of Kyler Murray and the play
25:31calling of Kevin O'Connell, the chance for them to sort of get back to normal this year and be a functional offense is
25:36there and Clayborn could end up having a really good run out if Jones goes down with an injury or if one of these two
25:42guys regresses and he just gets that opportunity for more touches. Really, really fun name there in Demond Clayborn and I'm going to go with a throwback
25:50here for some, but Jaylen McMillan, he gets a little bit banged up in training camp, but then comes back and Todd
25:57Bowles says he sort of expects him to play in week one. Um, they're hopeful that Ameca Egbuka plays in week one, but
26:04I feel like Jaylen McMillan could be like the waiver wire add uh if for many fantasy leagues after week one.
26:11Uh, wide receiver 68 right now on Underdog. We go back to 2024, his rookie year and just how good he was. From
26:19weeks 14 through 18, he was the wide receiver 19 overall in that stretch. He had seven touchdown catches, went nuts as a rookie and then last year had that
26:29incredibly scary injury, was able to come back from it. We thought he'd miss the entire year, but he comes back late.
26:35He had a 100-plus yard receiving game in week 17 last year and McMillan, we have the familiarity with Baker Mayfield.
26:44We've seen him win in this role in this offense and now you have Abuka dealing with a toe injury. You've got Chris
26:51Godwin who's 30 years old. I mean, Godwin's in store for a really strong role to start the year, but could he
26:57break down? You've still got Kate Otten at tight end, sort of a cap ceiling, cap target type player. McMillan feels like
27:05a player that could be a boom-bust flex for many weeks of the season with contingent upside if Ebuka misses time or if Godwin misses time. I really like
27:16drafting Jalen McMillan. I feel like he's incredibly underrated right now.
27:20Not a sleeper, but the market is certainly treating him like a sleeper.
27:24>> What I would say on McMillan, too, like I think the cliché that would apply to him is that anytime he's been given an
27:29opportunity to produce, he has done so.
27:33You can quibble with it like, "Well, it was all touchdown-based as a rookie."
27:36But like, yeah, I mean, that's that's a good thing, of course. Like, it's pretty unusual for a a non-first-round receiver, a day-two receiver to come in
27:44and score eight touchdowns as a rookie.
27:46Maybe there's element of luck, maybe it was a fluke, but that's that's pretty eye-popping for a third-round rookie.
27:52And like you said last year, last season, he still comes in, has the big game at the end. And it we're so used to
27:58treating this Bucs receiver core as one of the deepest in the NFL. It's not shallow this year. I mean, Ted Hust of
28:04course is another name we're monitoring closely in fantasy football, but Chris Godwin, I just don't know how many different times he can do this. I know
28:12he finished last year healthy, quote unquote, but missed a lot of the year with injury. How many different times, especially now on the wrong side of 30,
28:18can he come back healthy? And Jalen McMillan is a guy I have very few shares of. And like when you're talking, yeah,
28:24it sounds like something I could regret.
28:26Because it's just not as good of a receiver core as we give it credit for, and he's a guy who's always produced.
28:30>> Yeah, and I love Ted Hust, but I feel like for me Ted Hust is he's going to have some big games. He's certainly a
28:37best in best ball type, and I think he's more of like a 2027 bet. It's really hard to to to get to the NFL from that
28:46level. Like, historically, those the the coming from a school like Georgia State to make a huge jump, unless you're like Harold Fannin Fannin last year, usually
28:55those guys take a little while to to produce. So, Mcmillan, he has the pedigree, he has the familiarity with Baker, um and I think the confidence
29:04from the coaching staff. I think he's a really really fun click right now in all formats. Uh let's continue this conversation. You've got a a player that
29:12had a ton of steam at the beginning of the off season. Then Stefon Diggs ends up signing with Washington, and a lot of
29:19people sort of had that's all she wrote type uh takes on Antonio Williams, but it's sort of been nothing but positivity
29:27with Antonio Williams really dominating at Washington training camp. Uh talk about Williams and his pathway to potential success this year, uh and just
29:36what you like about the player and the profile.
29:39>> Like you said, he's been a drumbeat guy, and I like too that even with the Stefon Diggs signing, he still has an obvious
29:46role where he could see a lot of time in the slot, Antonio Williams. I guess Stefon Diggs could see time in the slot,
29:50I don't really know. I Sometimes the receiver positions I'm like, yeah, that sounds right to me. Stefon Diggs looks like he could be in the slot, but
29:57I think he's going to be in between Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs. Uh the two starters are over the age of 30.
30:04>> Yep.
30:04>> So, you know, you don't need me to tell you like there could be more snaps, more targets, more routes for the taking than
30:09we maybe think heading into week one, but pretty solid draft capital, day two guy.
30:15He's been a drumbeat guy, and not just during training camp, but the whole off season as you alluded to, where he's
30:19been impressing the Commanders coaching staff, Commanders teammates, and just I think the obvious role is there in the middle, in three receiver sets, maybe
30:27occasionally in two receiver sets, and just an offense that I think still just needs quality targets. I don't think they have enough quality targets lined
30:36up. Stefon Diggs too, his success last year with the Patriots, that came as in a role where they kind of rationed his
30:41snaps. They tried to deploy him not as a full-time guy and not at all that he was a part-time guy, but he was not an
30:47every-down player. It seemed like they wanted to keep him fresh. Would stand to reason maybe the Commanders copy that approach. And I just think even with
30:54Stef there, there's probably more routes, snaps, and targets for the taking than people realize um for Antonio Williams.
31:00>> Yeah, Antonio Williams is a really for me I I reference dynasty a lot cuz we're talking about a lot of young players
31:06here, but Williams is like a no-brainer pick up right now in dynasty because he's gotten so much cheaper since the rookie draft season when he was going in
31:16some leagues as like a late first-round pick where he had that clear path to be in sort of the Deebo Samuel role, maybe
31:23Deebo Samuel role plus. Uh the Diggs signing has sort of killed that momentum, but it hasn't done anything to diminish the talent that he has and his
31:32potential big 2027 breakout. And then like you said, when you look at it's the oldest pair of wide receivers in the NFL
31:39right now. Um and it's an offense that with their offensive line injuries is going to have to get the ball out of
31:44Jayden Daniels' hands, I think, uh pretty quickly in some matchups. So, Williams, I remember I had Mike Renner on Dynasty Life, uh and and Renner
31:53compared him to Ladd McConkey in talent and evaluation. So, I mean, there's some people that were very high on him at
31:58Clemson. We saw a huge year from him in 2024 at Clemson. Um and the vibes are really good right now and completely
32:05under the radar free in pretty much every single league.
32:09I'm going to go with Kayshon Boutte, a player that uh is entering his 20 24-year-old season, and it's feels like a guy that could take on a big expanded
32:19role in Houston.
32:21Dalton Schultz is probably the best bet to be the number two target opposite Nico Collins, but I think there's a scenario where Kayshon Boutte plays like
32:30an every-down role, and I think he has the ability to step in and do what the team had in uh planned for Jayden
32:37Higgins. Jayden Higgins was a huge drumbeat guy, a guy where the there was a lot of beat reporters talking about how dominant he was in training camp,
32:46how he's going to have this big year two breakout. He goes down with an injury and then Houston makes this very smart
32:52trade to go get Kayshon Boutte who was sort of boxed out in New England.
32:56And people are sort of dismissing this one because they sent a seventh-round pick for him, but this is a franchise that I think has been able to identify
33:04cheap veterans on the market. We saw how successful the Joe Mixon signing was and certainly we don't think Kayshon Boutte is going to have that level of success,
33:13but I do think he's going to play a career-high snap share. I think he has the ability to get behind the defense
33:19and I think he can challenge Dalton Schultz and become potentially the number two target on this team. We talk about guys like Jalen Noll. Jalen Noll's
33:27going to have a huge special teams role.
33:29I think like what the fantasy community wants for Jalen Noll versus what he's actually going to have in terms of every
33:35week role, there's probably a little bit of a disconnect. I think it's Kayshon Boutte and I think he could come out
33:40there and have a pretty solid year.
33:43How fantasy-relevant can he be? I don't think we know at this point, but I think he's a player that's worth putting on
33:49your bench and seeing if the usage is really good certainly throughout the first month of the season and then you can let him go because he's dirt cheap
33:57right now, doesn't cost you anything.
33:59>> Yeah, Boutte is the kind of guy people don't want to draft because even in the upside outcome, wide receiver three is
34:06probably not terribly relevant. Top 36 guy. Like even in like a a best-case scenario, Kayshon Boutte is probably a wide receiver four. We just kind of tend
34:14to underrate how important that can be.
34:16You want to have good wide receiver fours on your bench and I know Jalen Noll will have something to say about
34:21it. He seems to be the clear-cut number two guy in in the receiver core that is at least. I agree with you, Dalton
34:26Schultz is probably the number two targets earner, but I think he's the number two receiver. He's got an established skill. He's a productive
34:34downfield receiver. He's done it back-to-back years. It's not like a I know you were speaking but it's not like a typo when you said he's only going
34:40into his age 24 season. Unbelievable how young he still is. And he's got an established skill set. Maybe there's a little room to grow. He's going to be
34:49out there a lot.
34:51Again, you don't want to take him you don't really believe in the ultimate upside. I think we're probably not giving the floor enough credit when it
34:57comes to K'Shawn Boutte.
34:58>> Yeah, he's also going to be a free agent next off season. It feels like a huge opportunity for him to sort of
35:04re-establish who he is. He go back to like the profile of the player. There was at one point people thought he was
35:10going to be a first round pick out of LSU. And then he had like a big downfall ended up being a day three guy. But it's
35:17been a slow drip and we did see he had a stretch at the end of the 2024 season where he had pretty consistent
35:25usage with Drake May. Getting four catches, five catches, six catches a game for like a month-long plus period.
35:32So I think he's got a huge opportunity in Houston this year. We'll see how it shakes out. But the the next player I
35:39think could absolutely be fantasy relevant. Your final sleeper Pat Bryant who's had a tremendous summer. They seem to absolutely love him in Denver.
35:49>> They do and we know they've loved him from the start. They compared him to Michael Thomas, you know, kind of
35:53getting his career off to almost a rough start. Like I don't know man, maybe don't compare the day two pick to
35:58Michael Thomas even though Michael Thomas himself was a day two pick. But another guy I feel like they worked pretty hard to get him on the field as a
36:05rookie. Like I said with Jaylen McMillan, different type of player.
36:09Every time he was on the field he produced. Kind of had some crazy injury issues. He was lucky I think to escape
36:14that season without some sort of really long-term injury issue. But he did he didn't get any long-term injury issues.
36:21I wouldn't be stunned. I don't think this is the most likely outcome. I wouldn't be stunned if Pat Bryant ended up being the number two receiver over
36:28Courtland Sutton. Again, I don't think that's most likely. I do not think it's impossible. Like you said, this guy has been getting uh we keep using this
36:36phrase, but a drumbeat of praise, a drumbeat of hype. It started last summer and never really stopped.
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37:40>> We think maybe this is like a rising tides type of Broncos offense where it got incrementally better last year on
37:472024. Maybe it takes a big leap this year with Davis Webb. You know, I'm skeptical of that cuz Davis Webb is
37:53replacing, I feel like one of the greatest play callers in NFL history, and Sean Payton. But then again, it says something of that guy thinks Davis Webb
38:01is better suited to call plays than him where we might be underrating how much better the Broncos offense could look this year. I just don't think it's crazy
38:08for Pat Bryant to emerge as the number two. And then even if he doesn't, I like his profile on my bench cuz he kind of
38:14does it all where I think he could compile a little bit, he could have some big plays, he could score some
38:18touchdowns. So, I really, really like Pat Bryant on my bench.
38:22>> Yeah, and the full Courtland Sutton fade sort of looked silly when you saw how good Sutton looked in that first
38:28preseason game. I think Sutton had like three Yeah. So, like I had that same take. Um but I think when you look at
38:34Sutton and how the team treated him last year, where Troy Franklin, who's now the number four wide receiver in this offense, they did everything they could
38:43to try to establish Franklin as like the new wide receiver one. So, they go out and get Jaylen Waddle. They drafted Pat
38:50Bryant last year. You hear Sean Payton comparing him to Michael Thomas. And they used him down the stretch as well.
38:57So, Bryant it feels like a player that there's a big roadblock with Courtland Sutton. There's not really a threatening tight end. It's still Evan Engram who's
39:07in the tail end of his career. Um I think there's a chance Pat Bryant just simply overtakes Courtland Sutton. And if there was an injury to Courtland
39:14Sutton, who's getting a little bit older, it would be a incredibly clear path. And when we look at the pass volume, Denver it it had was top five in
39:22pass attempts last year. It's an offense we expect to score a lot this year. Um really really a fun name right there.
39:28And the coolest stat for Pat Bryant, I always bring this one up whenever I talk about him, when he was at Illinois, his
39:34last year there, he had three game-winning touchdown catches in Big Ten games, which were either in overtime or like the final two minutes of the
39:42game. He had the craziest touchdown catch ever against Rutgers. Um and then he had two other ones, all Big Ten wins.
39:48So, the guy was clutch. And I think coaching coaching staffs seem to gravitate towards him in big moments. My final sleeper, and it's funny, we've had
39:58this continual rookie tight end success for multiple years now. We had the Sam LaPorta to a tight end one overall year.
40:06Uh we had the Brock Bowers tight end one overall year. And then last year we had all these guys who made fantasy impacts
40:12like Tyler Warren, Harold Fannin, Colston Loveland down the stretch. We get Kanyon Ricks as the 16th overall pick. The guy runs a 43940,
40:22the same as Jamir Gibbs and he's unbelievable athlete. The we talk about like the vertical leap, the guy basically broke the RAS score. And he's
40:32getting left for dead in terms of every single league. Tight end 24 right now, so he's the bottom of the barrel tight
40:39end two. In a lot of leagues he's getting undrafted. In some of these NFFC leagues he's going in like the 17th,
40:4618th round, like completely ignored. And we talked about Adonai Mitchell benefiting from Omar Cooper not firing out the gate and Omar Cooper sort of
40:56being left behind.
40:57Omar Cooper was going to be the YAC guy and I think Siddiq has an opportunity to be sort of a a YAC monster, but he's
41:04doing it at the tight end position. And when we look at his draft capital, 16th overall pick. This is the same and we're
41:11not so I'm not saying he's the same level of player. But it's the same range that we saw Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren
41:18and Colston Loveland drafted in. New York took him at 16 overall over a bunch of wide receivers that they could have
41:24had. And really when you look at Siddiq, people like to poke holes in, you know, the the the key metrics and the
41:31analytics and targets per route run and all that stuff at Oregon, but the guy had 51 catches. So in terms of raw stats
41:37it was right there. The most catches ever by an Oregon tight end in a single season. And Siddiq is just sitting
41:44there. I'm not sure it's going to work out for him this year. But I think he the chances that he's a an absolute zero
41:51with this sort of an opportunity um I I think it's a very low low bet that he doesn't return something this year and
41:58it could end up being he's like a rookie year Chigoziem Okonkwo type bet that really fires off in the second half of
42:05the year in a major way. I think that the coaching staff seems to love him.
42:09The organization seems to love him. We saw how excited Frank Reich was to get him, and Frank Reich has had a long
42:16success with tight ends. I don't think we're getting super excited about Frank Reich the play caller, but if we look at
42:22the success that he's had with tight ends as a coordinator or head coach, it's a really strong one. So, Kanyon Ruke I love grabbing as like my tight
42:29end two. When I grab one of those elite tight ends, I get a Loveland or a Bowers or a McBride or a Warren, I can wait and
42:38get Ruke and just hope that he turns into something. I think it's a it's a really fun bet to make that's incredibly
42:45cheap and he's getting completely disrespected right now by redraft managers.
42:49>> It just seems like every year we have to relearn the lesson, overlook first round draft capital at your own peril. Like
42:56you said, going in like the 17th, 18th round in some of these bigger tournaments, these sharper fields, you know, the round you're going in probably
43:02should not exceed the number overall pick you were. You're the number 16 overall pick, like you said. And I kind of bought into the production arguments,
43:10too. Like he didn't even produce at Oregon. And he was a classic guy where every time I would Google Kanyon Ruke
43:15sports reference, I'm like, "Oh, he actually caught over 50 passes." You know, exactly. I was always in my mind's eye, I was always like 29 catches. No,
43:23it was over 50, like you said, and that even that was overblown. There's so many red flags and question marks, like you
43:29said. But the same was true for Odell Beckham, we know. He's not going to be the next Odell Beckham, of course, but
43:34every year we have to learn relearn this lesson. Like, it's better to find the positives of the first round skill player than it is to fixate on the
43:41negatives.
43:42>> And the athleticism is off the charts, and it's there's no position in fantasy where athleticism matters more than tight end. Historically, if you're a
43:52super athletic tight end, you're going to get an opportunity. It really doesn't matter for running backs and wide receivers. It's sort of a plus, but it
43:58can also be sort of a negative if we want to really go with the fastest guy doesn't always produce. When you're a
44:04tight end who's this fast and this explosive, offensive coordinators are going to try to get the ball in your hands at some point in the year and see
44:11if it works. And if Siddique runs with that opportunity, he could be a player that's in our lineups over the second
44:16half of the year. Uh Pat, really really fun talking sleepers. We got a couple of rapid-fire questions for you. Let's go
44:23with um give us a quarterback for our superflex drafters. I don't do enough superflex uh content here, but when you look at sort of a a quarterback that's
44:32maybe mispriced or a potential really strong target for superflex drafters, who would that be?
44:39>> Well, this is not my official answer, Malik Willis, but pretty rare these days to find a genuine dual threat who goes
44:46outside the top 20 quarterback. I always say maybe he's just a mono threat cuz he we don't even know if he can really
44:51throw. Pretty rare for a dual threat to go outside the top 20. I have a lot of Malik Willis.
44:56I think my more conventional answer is just Jordan Love, where the ADP what in the QB 17-18 range, I think most of the
45:04summer. And we just could be underrating how transformed and different this Packers offense is going to be. You know, Josh Jacobs's suspension kind of
45:12putting a fine point on it finally. But the whole story of their off-season was condensing the target tree, uh maybe getting more explosive, you know, trying
45:20to finish games better, aka score more points, run up the score more.
45:25And now with Josh Jacobs out, they have no choice but to lean on the passing game more. Jordan Love, we we kind of
45:30been fooled by before. Uh nothing has made me question the talent.
45:35I I think Jordan Love just strikes me as as a potential league winner in superflex.
45:40>> I think that's a it's a great call out, and I talked about him as another winner post Josh Jacobs, where even if like no
45:47matter what you think of MarShawn Lloyd, MarShawn Lloyd's a different kind of running back. It's more of an open offense now, and the quality of skill
45:55position talent he's got with Tucker Kraft, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Matthew Golden, all of those guys are potentially really good fantasy
46:03assets at cost.
46:05The last time we saw Jordan Love in a non-Josh Jacobs offense, he had 4,100 passing yards and 32 touchdowns. He was
46:14a top six scorer at the quarterback position. So, I love both of those answers and I rarely talk prop bets, but
46:21Malik Willis, you see a bunch of of sportsbooks have him at 549 rushing yards over under. I think he's going to
46:28smash that. Even if he's bad, he's going to beat that number. So, there we go.
46:32Pat, another question for you. This is a really fun one and an important one. If you want to do two names, go for it. If
46:39you want to do three names, go for it.
46:41But, how about one flag plant player going inside of rounds three through six. A lot of times we find sort of the
46:49league winner in this range of drafts.
46:51Like last year, Jackson Smith-Njigba.
46:53You go couple years back, Derrick Henry in this range. Multiple times we we've seen this. Who's the guy in round three
47:00through six that you're very into?
47:02>> I'm going to I'm going to push the limit on the question, because I think he sneaks in I think he's literally ADP 36
47:07in Underdog, but on more casual formats he's outside of it. Emeka Egbuka. And it's not because I'm such a huge believer in like the I'm not like
47:17pounding the table for Emeka Egbuka. I'm just taking him in almost every draft.
47:21You mentioned JSN. It's not like I think he's the next JSN or it's apples to oranges, but he's got the profile of the
47:29guy who makes the big leap at wide receiver. A former first-round pick. He was immediately productive as a rookie.
47:35We know all about the slow finish, hit the rookie wall, Bucks team-wide offensive catastrophe. It just fell apart. But, I focus more on the he
47:44actually produced in the first half of the season. They cleared the deck, maybe not intentionally so when they don't resign Mike Evans. He's now the number
47:51one. He's got then just enough question marks to keep the ADP in check. Because with the toe, his ADP never really rose.
47:59And I I acknowledge the question marks, but I I've taken a Mecole Hardman in quite literally almost every draft I've done. And he unintentionally maybe has
48:08become my flag flag plant player in rounds three to six.
48:11>> I mean, I love this one. This was the first show that I did here was my my dark horse league winners and it was
48:18Igbuka right there. I I've drafted him a ton of places. I begrudgingly had to move him down my rankings a little bit
48:25because of the toe and just a bunch of wide receivers there that are so appealing, but I still have a ton of
48:30exposure to him. You're such an enthusiast that I'm going to share our nickname for him at RotoWire that you can now bring over to RotoWorld. It's a
48:38Mecole Eggbuka. He's going full on a Mecole Eggbuka this [laughter] year. So so let Kyle know. Give Kyle the memo. He
48:45can start using that one as well. We now share that.
48:48>> Yeah, let's go. Let's get it trending.
48:49Let's hashtag it. Let's hashtag it. And Pat, we'll we'll end the show with this one. It's been a lot of fun talking to you, but I've asked a
48:55number of people this question and I'm curious who your player is for this one.
49:01If you could know the final stats of any player in fantasy football, who would it be?
49:06>> Not to be boring, but it is Abuka. Cuz every time I take this guy, I'm like, man, I feel like I'm staking my entire
49:12draft on this where I considered Amari Hampton cuz I'm a big Hampton fader.
49:17I've been constantly making the negative case for Hampton, but Hampton for better words, I'm kind of confident in my take.
49:23Abuka, I have so much of and I I just fully I acknowledge the downside case. I know that's real. So he's to someone
49:32where I feel like almost every bullet point despite the red flags tells me to take him.
49:37But there's like always this voice in my side of my head like, I don't know if this is right or not. And he every time
49:41I take him, I do really wonder like, man, what is this guy truly going to do?
49:44And so it is a Mecole Hardman for me.
49:46>> I mean, I absolutely love that one.
49:48You're the first person that said that name and I think it's huge because if he has a smash year, it probably means
49:53Baker Mayfield it is a big value and if he has a terrible year, then we're probably drafting a ton of Chris Godwin
50:00and a a ton of Jaylen McMillan.
50:03Um really really fun one and then it's sort of the opportunity cost where there's so many good wide receivers in that range right now.
50:09>> it's crazy. That's why it feels so fateful every time I do it cuz I'm taking him over guys like Teter or
50:14McMillan, Jaylen Waddle, uh T Higgins if you go a little further down. So yeah, that's why every time like man, I really
50:19hope this works.
50:20>> Yeah, absolutely. It's a great answer.
50:22Pat, let everybody know once again what you have coming out.
50:25>> Uh sleepers and spoilers. Again, I'm the only sleepers article you're going to find this week out in the fantasy football community, but I'm putting mine
50:32out on Thursday. Uh doing a live Q&A on Thursday with my guys Denny and Kyle and this is the Rotoworld Football Show.
50:38After you listen to Theo, come check us out. And Rotoworld is full of content this week. We have a free draft guide
50:44this year. Again, not to sorry to say this on a Rotowire show.
50:47Uh but we have a free draft guide this year. A lot of amazing content, please check us out.
50:51>> Awesome. Well, highly recommend Pat's content and stick with us here at Rotowire. We dropped a show a day in the
50:56month of August. We're going to keep it rolling all throughout September. Uh we're so excited for week one to start and if you're drafting this week, go out
51:03and crush your drafts. We'll see you soon.